We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season, well for most teams anyway, and the division races are looking a little clearer in terms of contenders and pretenders. The two hardest divisions to assess at this time are the jumbled NFC East and NFC West. A big surprise to me is the fact that no team in the NFC East is above .500 at this point. I thought this was one of the strongest divisions in the NFL heading into the season. In what is not a surprise, the NFC West also has no team above .500 and the preseason favorite is yet to win a game. Let’s breakdown the NFL division by division at the quarter mark, and give odds on each team’s ability to win the division or earn a wild card. I will be back a little later today with an abbreviated picks post (they're up, click here). I’m feeling good after sweeping the prime time games like I said I would!
AFC East
New York Jets (3-1) – If there was one team happy to see Randy Moss leave New England it had to be the Jets who saw their division title hopes increase greatly. (Though I think they would have preferred it wait a week since they see the Vikings on Monday Night this week.) The Jets are loaded, no doubt about that, and are expecting the return of Darrelle Revis (injury) and Santonio Holmes (suspension) this week. The question is whether we see the Sanchez of the last three weeks when the Jets look like they can beat anyone, or the Sanchez from week one when they couldn’t score on the little sisters of the poor. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.
New England Patriots (3-1) – First thing that came to mind upon learning the Randy Moss news is ‘I wonder what Tom Brady is thinking.’ No doubt that the Patriots are loaded for the future with young talent and draft picks galore, but trading Moss cannot have made an ultra-competitive guy like Tom Brady happy. The Patriots went from legitimate Super Bowl contender to playoff hopeful. I know Belichick is a genius and all, but you can’t win football games every week with two special teams TDs and one INT TD. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 55%.
Miami Dolphins (2-2) – Two straight home divisional losses can certainly put a dent in your division and playoff hopes. The Dolphins have major questions in the secondary and will need Chad Henne to play much better than he did against the Pats to get back into the thick of things. Division odds: 5%. Playoffs: 20%.
Buffalo Bills (0-4) – Bills are hands down the worst team in the NFL and are currently being outscored 125-61 on the season. The good news is that I was happy to see Marshawn Lynch traded as I have Fred Jackson on two of my fantasy teams! Then again, maybe it’s not so good news to have any Bills on your fantasy teams. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) – The Ravens squeaked out a big game in Pittsburgh last week in which a loss would have put them in a major hole to the Steelers. The Ravens are a good, disciplined football team that should only get better with the return of Ed Reed on defense and a deep play threat on offense in Donte Stallworth. Does the comeback win over the Steelers propel Flacco to the elite level? I still have my doubts, but the Ravens look like a playoff team. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 65%.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) – The Steelers not only survived their franchise quarterback’s four game suspension, they put themselves in great position for another Super Bowl run. The defense looks like the league’s best unit and the offense will become two-dimensional with Roethlisberger’s return. If the Steelers can stay healthy, they are the team to beat in the AFC. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) – You know the old saying that a team is better than its individual parts, well the Bungals are the opposite of that. With good individual talent spread up and down the roster, Cincinnati has not been able to put it all together. A lot of that has to do with the play of Carson Palmer, who has dropped off a long way from just a few short years ago. I won’t rule out a playoff berth for these guys in case they can put it all together, but with their schedule it better happen in a hurry. Division odds: 5%. Playoffs: 20%.
Cleveland Browns (1-3) – Eric Mangini has the Browns playing hard and they will not be an easy victory for anyone. I think new GM Mike Holmgren will eventually get them on the right path personnel wise, but priority number one has to be a quarterback. It is impossible to win consistently in this league without a QB. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.
AFC South
Houston Texans (3-1) – This really could be the coming of age year for this Texans squad. After a week one victory over their once unbeatable rival, Houston rallied from 17 down to win on the road in Washington and in week four went to Oakland without their best player in Andre Johnson and left tackle Duane Brown and still found a way to win. Houston now gets back reining Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing and will eventually get back Johnson and Brown. It should be an interesting battle between the non divisional winners of the Colts/Texans, Ravens/Steelers and Jets/Patriots for those final two wildcard spots. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 70%.
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) – Bob Sanders is hurt once again and the Colts ability to stop the run has pretty much dissolved. It is extremely important for Peyton Manning to get his team ahead and let this defense go after the quarterback and use their speed to do what they do best. The Colts will be fine, though, and Peyton is probably once again the frontrunner for MVP. Division odds: 50%. Playoffs: 75%.
Tennessee Titans (2-2) – Tennessee has been a little Jekyll and Hyde this year with impressive victories over the Raiders and Giants and disappointing losses to the Steelers and Broncos. Teams will continue to load up on the run against Chris Johnson (averaging only 3.8 yards per carry) and forcing Vince Young to beat them with his arm. Young continues to improve, and Jeff Fisher always has his team competing at a high level, but I think we continue to see inconsistency with this football team as Young continues to develop. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 30%.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) – As impressive as the Jaguars victory over the Colts last week was this is still not a good football team. Jacksonville was outscored 66-16 in their two losses thus far, one of those at home, and has given up 111 points on the season, second only to Buffalo in the AFC. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 5%.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) – The surprise team at the quarter mark of the season and the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are well coached under coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel and have some playmakers on both sides of the ball. Matt Cassel and his girly-arm are not the answer at quarterback, however. The Chiefs will get a reality check this week as they travel to Indianapolis, but don’t be surprised if they hang around the playoff picture longer than most would expect. Division odds: 15%. Playoffs: 15%.
San Diego Chargers (2-2) – The Chargers have the NFL’s number one offense and number two defense and are a few special team gaffes on the road away from being undefeated. Philip Rivers is one of the truly elite players in this league and I fully expect the Chargers to win the West once again and become a strong Super Bowl contender. Division odds: 65%. Playoffs: 65%.
Denver Broncos (2-2) – You may have noticed in my picks column the past couple of weeks how I have touted the Broncos as a strong home and terrible road team. Well the Broncos, after losing at home to the Colts (understandable), went on the road and defeated a pretty decent Titans team on the arm of the NFL’s leading passer, Kyle Orton. I doubt that Orton can continue playing THIS WELL, but he has done enough to make me believe that the Broncos will not go away easily this year. Division odds: 19%. Playoffs: 19%.
Oakland Raiders (1-3) – Oakland probably should be 2-2 and outside of the opener in Tennessee the Raiders have played relatively well behind quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. I expect the Raiders to continue to compete hard but the overall lack of talent makes the playoffs a very long shot this year. Division odds: 1%. Playoffs: 1%.
NFC East
Washington Redskins (2-2) – The NFC East is truly the one division, the one division that matters anyway, up for grabs. Any of the four teams could realistically win this thing and the one thing that Washington has going for it is McNabb and Shanahan have certainly done it before. Still, this has the feel of an 8-8 or 9-7 team, maybe that’s enough, but I doubt it. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 30%.
New York Giants (2-2) – The Giants are the NFC version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, but in a little different sense that their ups and downs have come within each game. The key for the Giants will be the play of their offensive and defensive lines. The offensive line needs solid play to allow the Giants’ talented skill guys do their thing and the defensive line needs dominating performances like the one against the Bears to protect the weaknesses behind them. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 40%.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) – There has been no team more interesting than the Eagles over the first four weeks, that’s for sure. Now back at square one with a 2-2 record and Kevin Kolb behind center, I think it’s safe to say that we still really don’t know anything about this team. Trying to put a number on their playoff chances is virtually impossible, especially since we have no idea when Vick will return. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 30%.
Dallas Cowboys (1-2) – The Cowboys are lucky in the sense that no team has established themselves in the division allowing the Cowboys off the hook for their sloppy start. Now after a solid road win at Houston and a bye week to regroup, I still think Dallas is the class of the NFC East. If they’re not, I’m guessing it is the end of Wade Phillips in Dallas. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 60%.
NFC North
Chicago Bears (3-1) – While I am still not a believer in this Bears team, it is hard to knock their quality wins at Dallas and over Green Bay. I think the Bears 3-0 start was a bit of mirage, however, as Cutler got lucky with some balls that should have been picked off and the offensive line hadn’t been fully exposed yet. I think the Giants game is more of a reflection of what we will see going forward. The Bears have given themselves a chance with their strong start but must get Cutler back in the very near term. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 25%.
Green Bay Packers (3-1) – The Packers are probably the favorite in the NFC right now but that is probably more of a byproduct of the rest of the league than the Packers play. Green Bay has been sloppy, poorly coached, and undisciplined through four weeks but has overcome those mistakes with their talent. Mike McCarthy needs to speed up their play on offense and give Aaron Rodgers as many opportunities as possible. Division odds: 60%. Playoffs: 90%.
Minnesota Vikings (1-2) – Talk about making a splash during your bye week! The trade for Randy Moss gives Brett Favre and the Minnesota offense the deep threat they were looking for and should open things up underneath for Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe and the running game. The defense is very stout once again, and I would be surprised if Minnesota doesn’t have something to say about the NFC Super Bowl representative before it’s all said and done. Division odds: 30%. Playoffs: 60%.
Detroit Lions (0-4) – The Lions are the best winless team in the league and I kind of feel sorry for them right now. They obviously should have won the Bears game on the Calvin Johnson catch ruling, and I’m guessing they would have won another game by now with a healthy Matthew Stafford. The defense, though still bad, is improving and the offense looks promising with young playmakers such as Johnson and Jahvid Best. There is hope for the future in Detroit! 0%. Playoffs: 0%.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (3-1) – The NFC South will be a two horse race between Atlanta and New Orleans (sorry Bucs’ fans, I have to discount your nice start) and the leg up has to go to Atlanta after winning in New Orleans. The Falcons are a good, well-rounded team that can run the football, play good defense and has an explosive playmaker in Roddy White on the outside. How good the Falcons can be is probably going to be determined on how good Matt Ryan can become. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.
New Orleans Saints (3-1) – It hasn’t been what people have come to expect from the Saints and their high-powered offense but Sean Payton has his club right where it needs to be in its attempt to defend its Super Bowl. Regression was expected as the Saints defense could not possibly force turnovers the way they did next year, but with Drew Brees and the Saints playmakers this remains a very dangerous football team. Division odds: 45%. Playoffs: 80%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) – On the positive, the Bucs got off to a nice 2-0 start and saw some good things from their young franchise QB, Josh Freeman. On the other hand, those two wins were over Cleveland and Carolina and the Bucs looked severely overmatched against the Steelers. Steps are being taken in the right direction, but this team is still ways away from true contention. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 5%.
Carolina Panthers (0-4) – Carolina’s offense has been downright offensive. The Panthers are averaging less than 12 points per game, the lowest n the NFL, and have twice as many turnovers as touchdowns. Something tells me John Fox will be looking for a job next season. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (2-2) – Seriously, this has to be the worst division since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The Arizona Cardinals are technically the division leader at this point despite announcing that an undrafted, rookie free agent is now their starter. If you were thinking well maybe their defense is winning games, think again. The Cardinals have given up 118 points, second only to Buffalo. All of that lousiness and I still give them a one in four shot of making the playoffs. Sheesh! Division odds: 25%. Playoffs: 25%.
St. Louis Rams (2-2) – I am pulling for the Rams to make the playoffs. I have always loved the way Steven Jackson plays the game and Sam Bradford has the look of the League’s next great QB. Still, it’s hard to believe a team can go from winning six games over the last three years to winning the division. Ladies and gentlemen, your NFC West! Division odds: 30%. Playoffs: 30%.
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) – The Seahawks are probably the legitimate favorite at this point with a win over the 49ers, the most experienced QB in Matt Hasselbeck, and a great homefield advantage. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Pete Carroll but he could very well find himself hosting a playoff game. I can promise you one thing; a NFC wildcard will not come from this division. Division odds: 35%. Playoffs: 35%.
San Francisco 49ers (0-4) – I was tempted to make the 49ers the favorite despite their 0-4 record which is certainly saying something. While the 49ers do own the division’s most talented roster, there are bigger issues going on with this football team and the 0-4 record is an almost impossible hole to dig yourself out of. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 10%.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Stanley Cup or Bust for Penguins
The Penguins open the new Consol Energy Center tonight for the start of their 2010-2011 season. The game will be the Penguins 167th straight sellout going back over three years ago to the soon to be demolished Mellon Arena. It’s no surprise that the team has attracted such great crowds with the players they have assembled and the winning they have done since Sidney Crosby’s arrival. The same reason that the team has done so well at the gates, however, is the reason I approach the regular season with a bit of a yawn.
We all know that the Penguins are going to make the playoffs, making these next 82 games pretty much a formality. It is not until then that the success of the Penguins’ season will be judged. When you have the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, Brooks Orpik, Marc Andre-Fleury and more, anything less than another Stanley Cup championship has to be considered a disappointment.
Don’t get me wrong, I am excited for the start of the Penguins’ season. The NHL regular season, unlike that of the NBA (whose season is also pretty meaningless for the top teams), is still played with a ton of intensity and provides a good bit of entertainment. Games like tonight’s match-up against a heated rival such as the Flyers have a playoff-like feel. But no matter how great the Penguins play over the next several months, it won’t matter until the Stanley Cup playoffs begin.
There are a few things I will be keeping an eye on in the early part of the season. I want to see how the new additions fit in, especially Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek on the blue line. I want to see how the power play does with the departure of Segei Gonchar and how Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski and Malkin do running the point in his place. I am very interested to see how the new third line of Max Talbot, Matt Cooke and Arron Asham perform. I will be watching to see how Staal looks when he makes his way back on the ice, particularly if he is fully recovered from the infection resulting from his offseason foot surgery and more importantly how he does playing on the second line, presumably with Malkin. Lastly, I will be watching how Coach Dan Bylsma mixes and matches his lines to see what combinations give the Penguins their best chance for postseason success.
Really, though, I will be tuning in hoping that the Pens manage to stay healthy. After all, health is the only real reason I can see this team not making another run at the Cup. Anything less than that will be a disappointment.
We all know that the Penguins are going to make the playoffs, making these next 82 games pretty much a formality. It is not until then that the success of the Penguins’ season will be judged. When you have the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, Brooks Orpik, Marc Andre-Fleury and more, anything less than another Stanley Cup championship has to be considered a disappointment.
Don’t get me wrong, I am excited for the start of the Penguins’ season. The NHL regular season, unlike that of the NBA (whose season is also pretty meaningless for the top teams), is still played with a ton of intensity and provides a good bit of entertainment. Games like tonight’s match-up against a heated rival such as the Flyers have a playoff-like feel. But no matter how great the Penguins play over the next several months, it won’t matter until the Stanley Cup playoffs begin.
There are a few things I will be keeping an eye on in the early part of the season. I want to see how the new additions fit in, especially Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek on the blue line. I want to see how the power play does with the departure of Segei Gonchar and how Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski and Malkin do running the point in his place. I am very interested to see how the new third line of Max Talbot, Matt Cooke and Arron Asham perform. I will be watching to see how Staal looks when he makes his way back on the ice, particularly if he is fully recovered from the infection resulting from his offseason foot surgery and more importantly how he does playing on the second line, presumably with Malkin. Lastly, I will be watching how Coach Dan Bylsma mixes and matches his lines to see what combinations give the Penguins their best chance for postseason success.
Really, though, I will be tuning in hoping that the Pens manage to stay healthy. After all, health is the only real reason I can see this team not making another run at the Cup. Anything less than that will be a disappointment.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
MLB Playoff Preview
In an occurrence that would shock no one, the American League playoffs look a whole lot more appealing than the National League. Quite frankly, only the Philadelphia Phillies stack up talent-wise with the four AL representatives, but that is what makes October baseball so riveting. One hot streak, one injury, even one bad bounce can change the outcome of a short series. With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at each of the divisional round match-ups and who I see moving forward. As for my World Series prediction: at this point I have to stick with my preseason prediction of the Phillies over the Yankees for the title, with Roy Halladay and his career 16-5 record and 2.90 ERA vs. the Bronx Bombers as the difference maker.
National League
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
I was disappointed to see the Reds struggle a bit down the stretch and ultimately get passed by the NL West winning Giants. I was hoping to see a Phillies-Reds match-up in the NLCS when the Reds’ deep rotation and strong line-up would match up better with the Phillies. That is not the case, however, and Philadelphia has a major advantage in the shorter five game series with the ability to throw Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt twice on regular rest. The Reds do sport the NL’s top offense and will counter with two talented, but young and inexperienced starters of their own in Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, along with veteran Bronson Arroyo in between. In the end, however, a healthy Phillies line-up and the trio of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels will be a little too much for the Redlegs. Phillies in four.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is the ultimate example of how pitching wins. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and the rest of the Giants staff have been amazing during the second half of the season, erasing a 7.5 game lead and 4th place standing in their own division on July 4th. The Braves, meanwhile, were able to hang onto the wild card and delay Bobby Cox’ retirement for another much deserved playoff appearance. As good as the Giants’ pitching has been down the stretch is as bad as the Braves’ banged up line-up has been. The Braves managed only 3.5 runs per game over their final thirty games and now face a pitching staff that has been lights out. I can’t see a way that the Braves find a way to score enough runs without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado in the line-up. Giants in four.
American League
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Now we move over to the big boy league. Look at the star power in this one: Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Vlad Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, David Price and the list could go on and on. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like the back part of the Rays’ rotation with James Shields, Matt Garza, and Wade Davis just slightly better than that of the Rangers with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter. If the series happens to reach a fifth game, the edge still lies with Tampa who will have home field advantage and have hit Rangers’ ace Cliff Lee relatively well this year to the tune of 12 earned runs in 23 plus innings. David Price would also get two starts at home where he has a sub-2 ERA. Rays in five.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
If I hadn’t picked the Yankees before the season to go to the World Series I would be tempted to pick the Twins in an upset as they have played the best ball in the Majors since the All-Star break and sport the League’s best home record at 53-28. The absence of Justin Morneau, however, shortens the Twins line-up and forces Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jim Thome to really provide the offense behind Joe Mauer. The Yanks’ have proven big game pitchers in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettite, both of whom are scheduled to go two games if the series should go the distance. The Yankees better make sure that is not the case as the edge would shift to the Twins with home-field advantage in game five and a well rested Liriano taking the mound (3.11 home ERA). I think the Yankees bats will be too much for the Twins to handle, however, especially for the back end of the Twins’ rotation and this one doesn’t reach that game five. Yankees in four.
National League
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
I was disappointed to see the Reds struggle a bit down the stretch and ultimately get passed by the NL West winning Giants. I was hoping to see a Phillies-Reds match-up in the NLCS when the Reds’ deep rotation and strong line-up would match up better with the Phillies. That is not the case, however, and Philadelphia has a major advantage in the shorter five game series with the ability to throw Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt twice on regular rest. The Reds do sport the NL’s top offense and will counter with two talented, but young and inexperienced starters of their own in Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, along with veteran Bronson Arroyo in between. In the end, however, a healthy Phillies line-up and the trio of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels will be a little too much for the Redlegs. Phillies in four.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is the ultimate example of how pitching wins. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and the rest of the Giants staff have been amazing during the second half of the season, erasing a 7.5 game lead and 4th place standing in their own division on July 4th. The Braves, meanwhile, were able to hang onto the wild card and delay Bobby Cox’ retirement for another much deserved playoff appearance. As good as the Giants’ pitching has been down the stretch is as bad as the Braves’ banged up line-up has been. The Braves managed only 3.5 runs per game over their final thirty games and now face a pitching staff that has been lights out. I can’t see a way that the Braves find a way to score enough runs without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado in the line-up. Giants in four.
American League
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Now we move over to the big boy league. Look at the star power in this one: Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Vlad Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, David Price and the list could go on and on. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like the back part of the Rays’ rotation with James Shields, Matt Garza, and Wade Davis just slightly better than that of the Rangers with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter. If the series happens to reach a fifth game, the edge still lies with Tampa who will have home field advantage and have hit Rangers’ ace Cliff Lee relatively well this year to the tune of 12 earned runs in 23 plus innings. David Price would also get two starts at home where he has a sub-2 ERA. Rays in five.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
If I hadn’t picked the Yankees before the season to go to the World Series I would be tempted to pick the Twins in an upset as they have played the best ball in the Majors since the All-Star break and sport the League’s best home record at 53-28. The absence of Justin Morneau, however, shortens the Twins line-up and forces Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jim Thome to really provide the offense behind Joe Mauer. The Yanks’ have proven big game pitchers in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettite, both of whom are scheduled to go two games if the series should go the distance. The Yankees better make sure that is not the case as the edge would shift to the Twins with home-field advantage in game five and a well rested Liriano taking the mound (3.11 home ERA). I think the Yankees bats will be too much for the Twins to handle, however, especially for the back end of the Twins’ rotation and this one doesn’t reach that game five. Yankees in four.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Best Month of the Year (And MLB Awards)
Today is the first Monday of October. With all due apologies to March Madness, October marks the beginning of best month on the sports calendar. Baseball has moved on to the postseason, the NFL is in full gear, conference play is beginning in college football, the NHL kicks off this week, the NBA isn’t too far behind and we even got the added bonus of a tremendous Ryder Cup which wrapped up this morning. All of our country’s most attractive sports are or will be playing meaningful games this time of the year. It’s enough to make the die-hard sports fan go crazy, or for the sports-bloggers out there a time for your typing fingers to get sore. We’ll kick off an action-filled week by handing out some awards in Major League Baseball before transitioning ahead to a look at the postseason tomorrow.
(Be sure to check back often this week as I plan to have a ton of content up on the blog. In addition to the baseball posts, I plan on including a Penguins preview, college football smorgasbord, Pirates recap/look forward and of course my weekly NFL picks and column. Thank goodness the Steelers have a bye this week!)
Major League Baseball wrapped up its regular season yesterday with the National League West and wild card still to be decided. If you are like most of the country and tune out baseball once football season starts, at least until the playoffs begin, than I can’t blame you. After about 130-plus games, even the most hard-core baseball junkies are ready for the postseason and the intense pressures of October to start.
This year did come with a little drama in the final few weeks but if you are from cities outside of San Francisco, San Diego, Denver or Atlanta you were probably more worried about your fantasy football teams for the last month or so than the baseball season. Fear not, however, as I give you my regular season awards and postseason preview over the next two days which should get you caught up just in time for the playoffs to begin on Wednesday.
AL MVP
Josh Hamilton (Texas Rangers) – This one would have been as clear-cut as it gets if Hamilton hadn’t missed 30 games this year, but the production he provided in the games he played for the AL West winning Rangers was still enough in my book. Hamilton won the AL batting crown with .359 average, hit 32 HRs drove in 100 runs and scored 95. “The Natural”, as a friend and I dubbed him a few years back, also led the AL in OPS at 1.043 and plays a decent outfield, including 40 games in center. Honorable Mention: Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano.
NL MVP
Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds) – The NL MVP was a virtual coin flip between Votto and Albert Pujols, with the easy tie-breaker going to Votto whose Reds beat out Pujols’ Cardinals for the Central Division. Votto’s line of .324/.424./.600 and 37/113/106 look almost identical to Albert’s .312/.414/.596 and 42/118/115, especially considering the extra few days Votto took off down the stretch getting rest for the postseason. Honorable Mention: Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki.
AL Cy Young
Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners) – For the out of touch baseball purists out there, save me the argument that King Felix shouldn’t win because he only won 13 games. Hernandez led the AL in innings, ERA, was 2nd in strikeouts and was quite clearly the best pitcher in a stacked class of American League pitchers. In Hernandez’ 12 losses, the Mariners scored a combined 14 runs. He may have won 25 games pitching for the Yankees or Rays. Honorable Mention: Cliff Lee, David Price, CC Sabathia, Francisco Liriano.
NL Cy Young
Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies) – To me, both leagues had pretty easy choices for their respective Cy Young Awards. Halladay was everything the Phillies were hoping for when trading for him this offseason and maybe even then some. Halladay led the NL in wins, innings pitched, complete games, K/BB ratio, and was 2nd in strikeouts and 3rd in ERA. He did all of this in Philadelphia’s hitter friendly park and the NL’s toughest division. There really are not words to describe how darn good Halladay performed this year. Honorable Mention: Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum.
AL Rookie of the Year
Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers) – I struggled mightily with this one trying to compare Austin Jackson’s bulk stats against Feliz’ limited role as the Rangers’ closer. Jackson played every day, amassing nearly 670 plate appearances and producing a solid, if not spectacular line of .293/.345/.400. In the end, however, I decided to go with Feliz’ dominance, especially adding in the factor that Feliz may become a great pitcher going forward where Jackson is likely to stay a similar player, or even regress. Honorable Mention: Jackson, Brian Matusz.
NL Rookie of the Year
Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves) – It is a shame that we cannot just give away two National League awards and take away the AL ROY. Heyward and Buster Posey of the Giants are both more than deserving of the award, as are about five or six other qualified candidates. I gave the slight edge to Heyward, however, as he played just a bit more than Posey while finishing with very similar production. Honorable Mention: Posey, Starlin Castro, Jaime Garcia, Mike Stanton.
(Be sure to check back often this week as I plan to have a ton of content up on the blog. In addition to the baseball posts, I plan on including a Penguins preview, college football smorgasbord, Pirates recap/look forward and of course my weekly NFL picks and column. Thank goodness the Steelers have a bye this week!)
Major League Baseball wrapped up its regular season yesterday with the National League West and wild card still to be decided. If you are like most of the country and tune out baseball once football season starts, at least until the playoffs begin, than I can’t blame you. After about 130-plus games, even the most hard-core baseball junkies are ready for the postseason and the intense pressures of October to start.
This year did come with a little drama in the final few weeks but if you are from cities outside of San Francisco, San Diego, Denver or Atlanta you were probably more worried about your fantasy football teams for the last month or so than the baseball season. Fear not, however, as I give you my regular season awards and postseason preview over the next two days which should get you caught up just in time for the playoffs to begin on Wednesday.
AL MVP
Josh Hamilton (Texas Rangers) – This one would have been as clear-cut as it gets if Hamilton hadn’t missed 30 games this year, but the production he provided in the games he played for the AL West winning Rangers was still enough in my book. Hamilton won the AL batting crown with .359 average, hit 32 HRs drove in 100 runs and scored 95. “The Natural”, as a friend and I dubbed him a few years back, also led the AL in OPS at 1.043 and plays a decent outfield, including 40 games in center. Honorable Mention: Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano.
NL MVP
Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds) – The NL MVP was a virtual coin flip between Votto and Albert Pujols, with the easy tie-breaker going to Votto whose Reds beat out Pujols’ Cardinals for the Central Division. Votto’s line of .324/.424./.600 and 37/113/106 look almost identical to Albert’s .312/.414/.596 and 42/118/115, especially considering the extra few days Votto took off down the stretch getting rest for the postseason. Honorable Mention: Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki.
AL Cy Young
Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners) – For the out of touch baseball purists out there, save me the argument that King Felix shouldn’t win because he only won 13 games. Hernandez led the AL in innings, ERA, was 2nd in strikeouts and was quite clearly the best pitcher in a stacked class of American League pitchers. In Hernandez’ 12 losses, the Mariners scored a combined 14 runs. He may have won 25 games pitching for the Yankees or Rays. Honorable Mention: Cliff Lee, David Price, CC Sabathia, Francisco Liriano.
NL Cy Young
Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies) – To me, both leagues had pretty easy choices for their respective Cy Young Awards. Halladay was everything the Phillies were hoping for when trading for him this offseason and maybe even then some. Halladay led the NL in wins, innings pitched, complete games, K/BB ratio, and was 2nd in strikeouts and 3rd in ERA. He did all of this in Philadelphia’s hitter friendly park and the NL’s toughest division. There really are not words to describe how darn good Halladay performed this year. Honorable Mention: Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum.
AL Rookie of the Year
Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers) – I struggled mightily with this one trying to compare Austin Jackson’s bulk stats against Feliz’ limited role as the Rangers’ closer. Jackson played every day, amassing nearly 670 plate appearances and producing a solid, if not spectacular line of .293/.345/.400. In the end, however, I decided to go with Feliz’ dominance, especially adding in the factor that Feliz may become a great pitcher going forward where Jackson is likely to stay a similar player, or even regress. Honorable Mention: Jackson, Brian Matusz.
NL Rookie of the Year
Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves) – It is a shame that we cannot just give away two National League awards and take away the AL ROY. Heyward and Buster Posey of the Giants are both more than deserving of the award, as are about five or six other qualified candidates. I gave the slight edge to Heyward, however, as he played just a bit more than Posey while finishing with very similar production. Honorable Mention: Posey, Starlin Castro, Jaime Garcia, Mike Stanton.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Week 4 NFL Picks
Gambling is a funny thing. Last week I went a lousy 8-8 against the spread, bringing my yearly total to 25-20-3, not bad, but not where I want it to be. The funny part is how I thought I had a great week. All of the games that I felt most strongly about (Steelers, Bengals, Eagles and Colts) were winners. I loved Minnesota, Baltimore and New England in a three team teaser (if gambling were legal of course). I thought Dallas and Atlanta were great value plays and I thought to stay clear of the Giants and Redskins for gambling purposes. Then I started going through my picks and realized that I was only 8-8 overall against the spread. This happens some weeks. Who would have thought the Patriots would give up 30 points to the Bills, or Eli Manning would decide to attempt a pass in the end zone left-handed, or that Seattle is a completely different team at home. Oh wait, I knew that last one…why did I still take the Chargers, a perennial terrible September team!
Those last few games were understandable, however, and I was still happy to head into the prime time games at 8-6. Then I had to watch as the Dolphins and Packers outplayed their opponents only to lose late in the fourth quarter. I take it especially hard losing the Sunday and Monday night games. After all, these are the games that everyone is playing to either make up for a bad weekend or to turn a good weekend into a great one. Losing both last week left a very sour taste in my mouth. Ok, I hear you, enough about last week. Let’s get to this week’s picks, in which I promise you some extra hard work on the Sunday and Monday night contests.
(Home teams in caps)
GREEN BAY (-14.5) over Detroit – I have a suggestion for Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy; SPEED UP PLAY ON OFFENSE! You are blessed with one of the top QBs in the league, why in the world do you insist on using the entire play-clock, eating up eight minute drives and giving your offense as few snaps as possible. McCarthy needs to take a cue from Indianapolis and speed things up on offense. The more plays his team runs on offense, the better. Second piece of advice: This is the NFL, kickers do not miss field goals inside of 30 yards. McCarthy’s decision, or non-decision, to not allow Chicago to score a touchdown last week is inexcusable. (Chicago attempting to score was just as inexcusable.) Luckily for Green Bay, it shouldn’t come to that this week.
TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver – I hate laying this many points to Kyle Orton, who is playing very well right now. Never thought I would be saying that previous sentence. I do think Tennessee wins, however, and that the margin of victory has a better chance of being 7 or 10 points than it does 6 points or less.
Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND – Cleveland has actually played relatively well this season, it just hasn’t translated to wins. The Browns have lost their three games by a combined 12 points. I think this trend continues this week as the Bengals find a way to win a tough, hard-fought road contest behind a break out performance from Mr. Ochocinco.
Carolina (+13.5) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans looks to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. Sean Payton’s creative offense took a big hit with the injury to Reggie Bush and now Pierre Thomas is banged up as well. I think Carolina finally gets its running game going, at least enough to hang around in this one.
San Francisco (+7) over ATLANTA – This pick is based solely on the fact that I think the 49ers are going to be this year’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team. One week they will show up and play an inspired performance against a good team. The following week they will lay an egg against an inferior opponent. That’s what happens when you have a lunatic like Mike Singletary as the coach. Scenario one is up this week.
PITTSBURGH (-1.5) over Baltimore – Charlie Batch is in for a different animal this week as I expect the Ravens to blitz the slow-footed veteran all day long. The key for the Steelers is to run the football and hit on a few big plays against that blitz. Defensively, the Steelers should sit back and play zone as Joe Flacco has seemed to struggle reading defenses but has used his arm to come up with big plays when blitzed. This is probably a toss-up, but I like the way the Steelers are playing on defense just a bit more than their rivals.
Seattle (-1) over ST. LOUIS – Who would have thought that the Seahawks and Rams would be battling for first place at any point this season? Well they are, and I still doubt that many fans outside of St. Louis or Seattle will want to tune in.
New York Jets (-5.5) over BUFFALO – Mark Sanchez has looked a great deal more comfortable in the pocket the last two weeks than he did in week one. The Bills rank near the bottom of the league with only four sacks on the season. When the Jets have an advantage with their passing game, they can be awfully good as evidenced by their last two victories.
Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – Peyton Manning has thrown for nearly 338 yards per game and has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year. Is it possible that this guy continues to get better?
Washington (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA – All of the talk surrounding this game will be centered on Donovan McNabb returning to Philadelphia and the play of Michael Vick. The outcome of this game, however, will be decided by the Redskins defense, a unit that ranks last in the NFL in yards against. If the ‘Skins can do enough to slow down Vick and company, I think McNabb can do enough to pull off the upset, once again disappointing the Philadelphia fans.
Houston (-3) over OAKLAND – There is always at least one line that I do not understand each week and here is this week’s winner. Andre Johnson’s health is certainly a factor, but I will still take my chances laying three with Houston’s offense against an inferior Raiders squad.
SAN DIEGO (-8) over Arizona – Well September is over and that means the Chargers can actually start playing football once again. Norv Turner should also follow my advice to Green Bay and speed up his offense. When you have one of the league’s best quarterbacks, your goal should be to get him as many plays as possible.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Chicago – What was lost in the Giants poor performance last week is that the offense was able to move the football up and down the field against a good Titans’ defense. Turnovers, penalties, and missed field goals led to the lopsided loss. The Giants are ninth in the NFL in passing yards despite a rough performance against Indianapolis in week two. The Bears, meanwhile, are ranked 28th against the pass and are coming off an emotional win and are on a short week. The Giants should bounce back nicely in this one.
New England (-1) over MIAMI – Miami’s secondary struggled mightily last week against Mark Sanchez, Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards. Imagine how they will fare against Brady, Moss and Welker. These two teams are actually pretty evenly matched, and I do expect a strong performance from Chad Henne and the Dolphins offense against the suspect Patriots secondary. In a shootout though, I’m going with Tom Brady and the Pats’ WRs over Henne and the Dolphins.
Those last few games were understandable, however, and I was still happy to head into the prime time games at 8-6. Then I had to watch as the Dolphins and Packers outplayed their opponents only to lose late in the fourth quarter. I take it especially hard losing the Sunday and Monday night games. After all, these are the games that everyone is playing to either make up for a bad weekend or to turn a good weekend into a great one. Losing both last week left a very sour taste in my mouth. Ok, I hear you, enough about last week. Let’s get to this week’s picks, in which I promise you some extra hard work on the Sunday and Monday night contests.
(Home teams in caps)
GREEN BAY (-14.5) over Detroit – I have a suggestion for Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy; SPEED UP PLAY ON OFFENSE! You are blessed with one of the top QBs in the league, why in the world do you insist on using the entire play-clock, eating up eight minute drives and giving your offense as few snaps as possible. McCarthy needs to take a cue from Indianapolis and speed things up on offense. The more plays his team runs on offense, the better. Second piece of advice: This is the NFL, kickers do not miss field goals inside of 30 yards. McCarthy’s decision, or non-decision, to not allow Chicago to score a touchdown last week is inexcusable. (Chicago attempting to score was just as inexcusable.) Luckily for Green Bay, it shouldn’t come to that this week.
TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver – I hate laying this many points to Kyle Orton, who is playing very well right now. Never thought I would be saying that previous sentence. I do think Tennessee wins, however, and that the margin of victory has a better chance of being 7 or 10 points than it does 6 points or less.
Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND – Cleveland has actually played relatively well this season, it just hasn’t translated to wins. The Browns have lost their three games by a combined 12 points. I think this trend continues this week as the Bengals find a way to win a tough, hard-fought road contest behind a break out performance from Mr. Ochocinco.
Carolina (+13.5) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans looks to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. Sean Payton’s creative offense took a big hit with the injury to Reggie Bush and now Pierre Thomas is banged up as well. I think Carolina finally gets its running game going, at least enough to hang around in this one.
San Francisco (+7) over ATLANTA – This pick is based solely on the fact that I think the 49ers are going to be this year’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team. One week they will show up and play an inspired performance against a good team. The following week they will lay an egg against an inferior opponent. That’s what happens when you have a lunatic like Mike Singletary as the coach. Scenario one is up this week.
PITTSBURGH (-1.5) over Baltimore – Charlie Batch is in for a different animal this week as I expect the Ravens to blitz the slow-footed veteran all day long. The key for the Steelers is to run the football and hit on a few big plays against that blitz. Defensively, the Steelers should sit back and play zone as Joe Flacco has seemed to struggle reading defenses but has used his arm to come up with big plays when blitzed. This is probably a toss-up, but I like the way the Steelers are playing on defense just a bit more than their rivals.
Seattle (-1) over ST. LOUIS – Who would have thought that the Seahawks and Rams would be battling for first place at any point this season? Well they are, and I still doubt that many fans outside of St. Louis or Seattle will want to tune in.
New York Jets (-5.5) over BUFFALO – Mark Sanchez has looked a great deal more comfortable in the pocket the last two weeks than he did in week one. The Bills rank near the bottom of the league with only four sacks on the season. When the Jets have an advantage with their passing game, they can be awfully good as evidenced by their last two victories.
Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – Peyton Manning has thrown for nearly 338 yards per game and has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year. Is it possible that this guy continues to get better?
Washington (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA – All of the talk surrounding this game will be centered on Donovan McNabb returning to Philadelphia and the play of Michael Vick. The outcome of this game, however, will be decided by the Redskins defense, a unit that ranks last in the NFL in yards against. If the ‘Skins can do enough to slow down Vick and company, I think McNabb can do enough to pull off the upset, once again disappointing the Philadelphia fans.
Houston (-3) over OAKLAND – There is always at least one line that I do not understand each week and here is this week’s winner. Andre Johnson’s health is certainly a factor, but I will still take my chances laying three with Houston’s offense against an inferior Raiders squad.
SAN DIEGO (-8) over Arizona – Well September is over and that means the Chargers can actually start playing football once again. Norv Turner should also follow my advice to Green Bay and speed up his offense. When you have one of the league’s best quarterbacks, your goal should be to get him as many plays as possible.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Chicago – What was lost in the Giants poor performance last week is that the offense was able to move the football up and down the field against a good Titans’ defense. Turnovers, penalties, and missed field goals led to the lopsided loss. The Giants are ninth in the NFL in passing yards despite a rough performance against Indianapolis in week two. The Bears, meanwhile, are ranked 28th against the pass and are coming off an emotional win and are on a short week. The Giants should bounce back nicely in this one.
New England (-1) over MIAMI – Miami’s secondary struggled mightily last week against Mark Sanchez, Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards. Imagine how they will fare against Brady, Moss and Welker. These two teams are actually pretty evenly matched, and I do expect a strong performance from Chad Henne and the Dolphins offense against the suspect Patriots secondary. In a shootout though, I’m going with Tom Brady and the Pats’ WRs over Henne and the Dolphins.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Random Thoughts on the College Football Title Hunt
The college football season is in full effect and after Ryan Mallet’s fourth quarter meltdown, Texas became the only true national title contender to suffer defeat so far. The top 14 teams in both the Associated Press Pool and USA Today Coaches’ Pool remain undefeated, and 19 teams in all of the current top 25 remain without a loss. Scanning the top 25, here are some of my random thoughts to this point.
· Alabama and Ohio State are the top two teams in the country, hands down. Watching these teams play and it is evident that the depth and talent level is superior to the rest of the country. That does not mean either will go undefeated, however, as both have a number of tough road games remaining.
· With apologies to Denard Robinson, my favorite for the Heisman remains Terrelle Pryor. Pryor looks to be a much more polished passer now in his third year as the starting quarterback and his athletic ability is second to none. If Ohio State goes undefeated, Pryor will be holding the hardware in New York.
· I believed in the Boise hype prior to the season and they have done nothing to disappoint. Their lines would not hold up over a twelve game schedule in the SEC or Big Ten, but in a one game scenario they can play with anyone.
· TCU, on the other hand, does have the personnel to hold up in any conference in the country. With all of Boise State’s hype, TCU goes under the radar somewhat but they are every bit as talented (and probably even more so) than the blue-turfers.
· Stanford and Oregon square off in the Pac 10 this week. If you get the chance to tune in, do so. I have seen both of these teams numerous times this year and both are legitimate title contenders. If Alabama and/or Ohio State gets knocked off the winner of this game may very well be playing for the national championship.
· Oklahoma and Florida remain title contenders but in very different fashions. Florida’s defense and Oklahoma’s offense have been tremendous while the other side of the ball for each has been very suspect. Both get their first true test this week, it’s time for them to put a complete performance together or they could find themselves in serious trouble.
· The final team I can see potentially competing for the national title is Nebraska. The defense is just as good as last year with an incredibly talented secondary and the offense has been more dynamic led by freshman Taylor Martinez. Martinez must prove he can move the ball through the air, however, if the Cornhuskers are going to run the table in the Big 12. The one consolation is that the Huskers will avoid the Sooners until a potential Big 12 Championship game.
· As for the remaining undefeated teams, I see too many inconsistencies to see a true title run. The best of the bunch are Wisconsin, Auburn and Arizona. Utah is a talented group, but the injury situation at QB has to be very concerning.
· The one x-factor for the remaining undefeated teams is the previously mentioned Denard Robinson. Robinson has proven to be unstoppable to this point, but the schedule gets a whole lot more difficult in the coming weeks. If Robinson can get the Wolverines to 10 or 11 wins, I think we will be seeing him in New York as well.
· As for the one loss teams, Miami remains an interesting team with the amount of talent they are trotting out every week. If the Hurricanes can stop shooting themselves in the foot they could very easily make a run through the ACC.
· Iowa and Arkansas, though eliminated from the title picture, will continue to make noise in their respective conferences and I don’t think we have heard the last from Steve Spurrier’s boys at South Carolina either.
· Alabama and Ohio State are the top two teams in the country, hands down. Watching these teams play and it is evident that the depth and talent level is superior to the rest of the country. That does not mean either will go undefeated, however, as both have a number of tough road games remaining.
· With apologies to Denard Robinson, my favorite for the Heisman remains Terrelle Pryor. Pryor looks to be a much more polished passer now in his third year as the starting quarterback and his athletic ability is second to none. If Ohio State goes undefeated, Pryor will be holding the hardware in New York.
· I believed in the Boise hype prior to the season and they have done nothing to disappoint. Their lines would not hold up over a twelve game schedule in the SEC or Big Ten, but in a one game scenario they can play with anyone.
· TCU, on the other hand, does have the personnel to hold up in any conference in the country. With all of Boise State’s hype, TCU goes under the radar somewhat but they are every bit as talented (and probably even more so) than the blue-turfers.
· Stanford and Oregon square off in the Pac 10 this week. If you get the chance to tune in, do so. I have seen both of these teams numerous times this year and both are legitimate title contenders. If Alabama and/or Ohio State gets knocked off the winner of this game may very well be playing for the national championship.
· Oklahoma and Florida remain title contenders but in very different fashions. Florida’s defense and Oklahoma’s offense have been tremendous while the other side of the ball for each has been very suspect. Both get their first true test this week, it’s time for them to put a complete performance together or they could find themselves in serious trouble.
· The final team I can see potentially competing for the national title is Nebraska. The defense is just as good as last year with an incredibly talented secondary and the offense has been more dynamic led by freshman Taylor Martinez. Martinez must prove he can move the ball through the air, however, if the Cornhuskers are going to run the table in the Big 12. The one consolation is that the Huskers will avoid the Sooners until a potential Big 12 Championship game.
· As for the remaining undefeated teams, I see too many inconsistencies to see a true title run. The best of the bunch are Wisconsin, Auburn and Arizona. Utah is a talented group, but the injury situation at QB has to be very concerning.
· The one x-factor for the remaining undefeated teams is the previously mentioned Denard Robinson. Robinson has proven to be unstoppable to this point, but the schedule gets a whole lot more difficult in the coming weeks. If Robinson can get the Wolverines to 10 or 11 wins, I think we will be seeing him in New York as well.
· As for the one loss teams, Miami remains an interesting team with the amount of talent they are trotting out every week. If the Hurricanes can stop shooting themselves in the foot they could very easily make a run through the ACC.
· Iowa and Arkansas, though eliminated from the title picture, will continue to make noise in their respective conferences and I don’t think we have heard the last from Steve Spurrier’s boys at South Carolina either.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Week 3 NFL Picks
You may have noticed a considerable lack of writing this week, especially in light of my promise to talk some baseball and college football this week. I did have a valid excuse though as my wife gave birth to our first child on Wednesday, a baby girl…so cut me some slack! Mom and baby are doing great and I promise to catch up on the college football scene and end of the baseball regular season next week.
I can’t, however, postpone my week three NFL picks after another decent performance in week two. Going 9-6-1 against the spread last week brings my overall record on the year to 17-12-3, a very solid 59% winning percentage. In between the many visitors and very few hours of sleep we got over the past few days, it was actually quite easy to stay updated on the world of sports thanks to the hospital’s fantastic guest internet service and a steady diet of ESPN on the tube. I must say that I have no excuses for this week’s picks, unless of course I bomb! Let’s get to it.
(home teams in caps)
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee – The Giants ran into a tough match-up in Indianapolis last week. I expect Eli and company to bounce back and earn a hard fought win at home.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Josh Freeman has played well in the first two weeks but he has not seen anything resembling this Pittsburgh defense.
BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Cleveland – Baltimore’s offense has really struggled so far. This has the feel of one of those games where everything finally clicks and the Ravens post a big number on the scoreboard. Seneca Wallace will not be posting a big number against the Ravens defense.
Atlanta (+4) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans has not been overly impressive in the first two weeks and Atlanta is very familiar with their attack. I expect this to be one of the better games of the weekend, and expect it to ultimately be decided by a field goal.
San Francisco (-2.5) over KANSAS CITY – The 49ers looked like the team we expected them to be Monday night against the Saints. Now they need to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo – It’s usually not a very good sign when you’re turning to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for a spark. Tom Brady will rebound in a big way from last week’s subpar performance.
Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA – The defense that showed up last week in Cincinnati is the one we should expect going forward. That’s not a good thing for Jimmy Clausen who is making his first career start.
MINNESOTA (-11) over Detroit – See Baltimore game above (just substitute Shaun Hill for Seneca Wallace).
Dallas (+3) over HOUSTON – I’m not backing off the Cowboys now as they were my preseason Super Bowl pick. If they lose again this week, it will become time to reevaluate.
Indianapolis (-5.5) over DENVER – I have said a few times now that Denver is a significantly better team at home but having a banged up secondary is no way to face off with Peyton Manning.
Washington (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS – Redskins fans are going to be complaining that their team should be 3-0 after this week. Would of, could of, should of…
San Diego (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Much like Denver, I hate going against Seattle at home. Still, I can’t get over the fact that this team does not look very talented to me.
Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE – The Michael Vick revival continues.
Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA – I simply cannot give more than a field goal with Derek Anderson at QB. I also like the way that Oakland played last week in the second half. This should be a tight one, if not a particularly well played one.
MIAMI (-2) over New York Jets – I don’t expect Miami to sit back and allow Mark Sanchez time to throw the way the Patriots did last week. This should be a good, low-scoring contest and the absence of Revis Island could very well be the difference.
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO – Simply not going against the Packers until they prove me wrong. Cutler is due for a few interceptions anyhow.
I can’t, however, postpone my week three NFL picks after another decent performance in week two. Going 9-6-1 against the spread last week brings my overall record on the year to 17-12-3, a very solid 59% winning percentage. In between the many visitors and very few hours of sleep we got over the past few days, it was actually quite easy to stay updated on the world of sports thanks to the hospital’s fantastic guest internet service and a steady diet of ESPN on the tube. I must say that I have no excuses for this week’s picks, unless of course I bomb! Let’s get to it.
(home teams in caps)
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee – The Giants ran into a tough match-up in Indianapolis last week. I expect Eli and company to bounce back and earn a hard fought win at home.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Josh Freeman has played well in the first two weeks but he has not seen anything resembling this Pittsburgh defense.
BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Cleveland – Baltimore’s offense has really struggled so far. This has the feel of one of those games where everything finally clicks and the Ravens post a big number on the scoreboard. Seneca Wallace will not be posting a big number against the Ravens defense.
Atlanta (+4) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans has not been overly impressive in the first two weeks and Atlanta is very familiar with their attack. I expect this to be one of the better games of the weekend, and expect it to ultimately be decided by a field goal.
San Francisco (-2.5) over KANSAS CITY – The 49ers looked like the team we expected them to be Monday night against the Saints. Now they need to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo – It’s usually not a very good sign when you’re turning to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for a spark. Tom Brady will rebound in a big way from last week’s subpar performance.
Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA – The defense that showed up last week in Cincinnati is the one we should expect going forward. That’s not a good thing for Jimmy Clausen who is making his first career start.
MINNESOTA (-11) over Detroit – See Baltimore game above (just substitute Shaun Hill for Seneca Wallace).
Dallas (+3) over HOUSTON – I’m not backing off the Cowboys now as they were my preseason Super Bowl pick. If they lose again this week, it will become time to reevaluate.
Indianapolis (-5.5) over DENVER – I have said a few times now that Denver is a significantly better team at home but having a banged up secondary is no way to face off with Peyton Manning.
Washington (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS – Redskins fans are going to be complaining that their team should be 3-0 after this week. Would of, could of, should of…
San Diego (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Much like Denver, I hate going against Seattle at home. Still, I can’t get over the fact that this team does not look very talented to me.
Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE – The Michael Vick revival continues.
Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA – I simply cannot give more than a field goal with Derek Anderson at QB. I also like the way that Oakland played last week in the second half. This should be a tight one, if not a particularly well played one.
MIAMI (-2) over New York Jets – I don’t expect Miami to sit back and allow Mark Sanchez time to throw the way the Patriots did last week. This should be a good, low-scoring contest and the absence of Revis Island could very well be the difference.
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO – Simply not going against the Packers until they prove me wrong. Cutler is due for a few interceptions anyhow.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Week Two NFL Power Rankings
Instead of taking a look game by game, here are my updated NFL Power Rankings after two weeks along with what we know about each team. Some of the familiar faces remain up top, but two Super Bowl hopefuls in the NFC take a dramatic drop after poor performances at home dropped them to 0-2.
1. New Orleans Saints – The Saints take over the top spot pending their match-up at San Francisco tonight. What we know: Drew Brees and the offense are going to score points. (Editor's Note: The Saints keep their top spot after a hard fought road victory against a desperate 49ers team.)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Does any single unit in the NFL look better than the Steelers defense right now? Can three linebackers (Timmons, Woodley, Harrison) from the same team earn All-Pro? Should the Steelers play Antwaan Randle El at QB in week three if Dixon and Leftwich can’t go? What we know: The defense, if healthy, is Super Bowl good.
3. Green Bay Packers – Everyone’s chic pick for the Super Bowl looks that much better after watching Dallas and Minnesota stumble out of the gates. Clay Matthews looks like a one-man wrecking crew (six sacks in two games) and the Pack defense has 10 sacks already; can they keep that kind of pressure up? What we know: Aaron Rodgers is pretty good.
4. Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning and the Colts looked just fine last night beating up on little brother. What we know: The Colts will finish somewhere around the 12 win mark.
5. New England Patriots – With apologies to some of the 2-0 teams out there, New England still has the look of Super Bowl contender. What surprised me the most against the Jets yesterday was the vanilla defensive gameplan by Bill Belichick. Why give Mark Sanchez time? The guy has proven he is terrible right now under pressure, why oblige and send only three and four man rushes. What we know: Tom Brady had a fairly ordinary game in New York, he’ll bounce back just fine.
6. Houston Texans – Beating the Super Bowl favorites convincingly at home and following it up by completing a 17-point comeback on the road earns you the biggest jump in our rankings. What we know: The Texans offense can score points in a hurry.
7. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers sure looked like they didn’t miss Vincent Jackson in yesterday’s beat down of the Jaguars. What we know: The Chargers are a thunderstorm and a conservative play-calling series away from being 2-0.
8. New York Jets – Rex Ryan probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his defensive gameplans and play-calling. Anyone else notice that the Jets defense got better against the pass when Revis went out of the game? What we know: The Jets defense is terrific and Mark Sanchez can be effective with time.
9. Cincinnati Bengals – With the early struggles of the Cowboys and Vikings, the AFC looks even further superior to the NFC than what I had initially thought. The Bengals defense rebounded nicely from a terrible week one performance, but the offense has to find a way to put seven, and not three, on the board. What we know: The Bengals defense isn’t nearly as bad as they were against New England.
10. Baltimore Ravens – So much for that talk about the Ravens offense now leading the way in Baltimore. The Ravens need to find a way to kick start their running game which has looked ordinary in the first two weeks, albeit against two very good defenses. What we know: Ray Lewis looks 25-years-old and has this defense playing like a top five caliber unit once again.
11. Atlanta Falcons – Showed good offensive balance in their 41-7 drumming of the Cardinals. What we know: Matt Ryan needs to become more consistent week to week for the Falcons to become Super Bowl contenders.
12. Tennessee Titans – Don’t take too much from the Titans offensive performance against the Steelers as they usually struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that excels at stopping the run. Chris Johnson and Vince Young will be just fine. What we know: The Titans wide receivers are nothing to fear.
13. Miami Dolphins – The ‘Fins go to Minnesota for a big win and an opening 2-0 start with both victories coming on the road, a great recipe towards earning a playoff berth. What we know: The Dolphins still need more from their passing game, averaging less than 150 yards passing in their first two contests.
14. Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota’s passing game looks downright atrocious right now. What we know: The Vikings need to rely even more on Adrian Peterson until Favre gets going and Sidney Rice comes back (or they trade for Vincent Jackson).
15. Chicago Bears – If Jay Cutler performs the rest of the year the way he did yesterday, I have the Bears severely under-ranked at number 15. I have my doubts though. What we know: The Bears offense already looks significantly improved under Mike Martz after only two games.
16. New York Giants – I’ll give the nod to the Giants for now in what looks like a jumbled mess in the NFC East. If I could pick any one team or the field to win this division right now, I would most certainly take the field. What we know: The Giants plan to make Peyton Manning run the football last night didn’t work out too well.
17. Washington Redskins – Blowing a 17-point second half lead is the type of loss that can have a team watching the playoffs on television. There is no way that Mike Shanahan and company can allow that to happen at home. What we know: Donovan McNabb (along with Shanahan) has given this team instant credibility.
18. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are off to a miserable start and with their brutal schedule must get it together before it’s too late. Luckily for Dallas the rest of the NFC East, and really the entire NFC, has shown obvious flaws as well. What we know: Wade Phillips seat is getting awfully warm.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – If Michael Vick was going to be the starter going forward I would probably have the Eagles a few spots higher. I don’t blame Andy Reid for playing Kevin Kolb, however, because if it were about this season only Philadelphia would not have traded McNabb. What we know: Philadelphia area sports-talk radio should be pretty darn interesting this week.
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Raise your hand if you had the Steelers, Texans, Dolphins and Chiefs as the only undefeated AFC teams after two weeks. I don’t understand the Chiefs’ strategy of not using Jamaal Charles more but it’s hard to argue with the job new coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel have done. What we know: The Chiefs have done a good job of acquiring good young talent.
21. Denver Broncos – I think Josh McDaniels is one of the better in-game coaches in football. His personnel decisions, however, can certainly be questioned. What we know: The Broncos are a completely different team at home and on the road.
22. San Francisco 49ers – I am very interested in seeing how the 49ers rebound tonight against the defending champs. Their performance could move them way up or way down these rankings. What we know: The Niners need a much better performance from Frank Gore tonight if they are going to have a chance to win. (Editor's Note: The 49ers probably deserve to be a few spots higher after their spirited performance Monday night. We'll keep them here for the time being as they are sure to move themselves up the rankings if they continue to perform at that level.)
23. Seattle Seahawks – The excitement from the beginning of the Pete Carroll era lasted a whole one week in Seattle. What we know: Much like the Broncos, the Seahawks are a completely different team at home than they are on the road.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The lowest ranked team among those still unbeaten deserves a ton of credit for finding a way to win football games. I think the Bucs’ start has a lot more to do with facing Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore at QB than anything else, however. What we know: Nobody had the Bucs and Steelers on a collision course of unbeaten teams going into week three!
25. Jacksonville Jaguars – It probably wasn’t the best day David Garrard has ever had on a football field Sunday after throwing four interceptions against the Chargers. What we know: The Jaguars are probably the best of the bad teams in the NFL, but that really isn’t saying much.
26. Detroit Lions – The Lions suffered another hard-fought loss to the Eagles after managing a late rally to pull within three. What we know: After so many years of complete incompetence from Detroit’s front office, things are finally going in the right direction for Lions’ fans.
27. Carolina Panthers – Carolina should have listened to my strategy of trying to win a game without attempting a single pass. Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, who was inserted late for the ineffective Moore, finished a combined 13-29 for 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 interceptions, four sacks allowed and a lost fumble. Carolina fans might be asking for the return of Delhomme at this point…or maybe not. What we know: The Panthers need to find some semblance of a passing game.
28. Oakland Raiders – I said the Raiders needed to beat the Rams by four points at home if they are going to show any improvement this year. Well they would have, except for the terrible play-calling in the fourth quarter that allowed St. Louis to backdoor a cover. Jason Campbell was also pulled for Bruce Gradkowski, former midget football teammate of mine, in what clearly was a motivational ploy by head coach Tom Cable, and one that worked. What we know: Run DMC (Darren McFadden) looks like he may finally be realizing all of that potential he brought to the league after leaving Arkansas.
29. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are probably lucky to be 1-1 at this point. What we know: Coach Whisenhunt and Larry Fitzgerald will probably watch Kurt Warner on Dancing with the Stars tonight and think, ‘you left us for this!’
30. Cleveland Browns – Cleveland has lost their two games by a combined five points. Unfortunately for them, there are no bonus points for close losses. What we know: You are not going to win many football games with Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace behind center.
31. St. Louis Rams – Say what you want about the Rams but the team has been very competitive in each of its first two games, already a big improvement from last year. What we know: Sam Bradford has a ton of promise but he still has a long way to go to get there.
32. Buffalo Bills – If you’re still reading this you already know how bad Buffalo is. What we know: The Bills should trade one of their three running backs to Green Bay.
1. New Orleans Saints – The Saints take over the top spot pending their match-up at San Francisco tonight. What we know: Drew Brees and the offense are going to score points. (Editor's Note: The Saints keep their top spot after a hard fought road victory against a desperate 49ers team.)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Does any single unit in the NFL look better than the Steelers defense right now? Can three linebackers (Timmons, Woodley, Harrison) from the same team earn All-Pro? Should the Steelers play Antwaan Randle El at QB in week three if Dixon and Leftwich can’t go? What we know: The defense, if healthy, is Super Bowl good.
3. Green Bay Packers – Everyone’s chic pick for the Super Bowl looks that much better after watching Dallas and Minnesota stumble out of the gates. Clay Matthews looks like a one-man wrecking crew (six sacks in two games) and the Pack defense has 10 sacks already; can they keep that kind of pressure up? What we know: Aaron Rodgers is pretty good.
4. Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning and the Colts looked just fine last night beating up on little brother. What we know: The Colts will finish somewhere around the 12 win mark.
5. New England Patriots – With apologies to some of the 2-0 teams out there, New England still has the look of Super Bowl contender. What surprised me the most against the Jets yesterday was the vanilla defensive gameplan by Bill Belichick. Why give Mark Sanchez time? The guy has proven he is terrible right now under pressure, why oblige and send only three and four man rushes. What we know: Tom Brady had a fairly ordinary game in New York, he’ll bounce back just fine.
6. Houston Texans – Beating the Super Bowl favorites convincingly at home and following it up by completing a 17-point comeback on the road earns you the biggest jump in our rankings. What we know: The Texans offense can score points in a hurry.
7. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers sure looked like they didn’t miss Vincent Jackson in yesterday’s beat down of the Jaguars. What we know: The Chargers are a thunderstorm and a conservative play-calling series away from being 2-0.
8. New York Jets – Rex Ryan probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his defensive gameplans and play-calling. Anyone else notice that the Jets defense got better against the pass when Revis went out of the game? What we know: The Jets defense is terrific and Mark Sanchez can be effective with time.
9. Cincinnati Bengals – With the early struggles of the Cowboys and Vikings, the AFC looks even further superior to the NFC than what I had initially thought. The Bengals defense rebounded nicely from a terrible week one performance, but the offense has to find a way to put seven, and not three, on the board. What we know: The Bengals defense isn’t nearly as bad as they were against New England.
10. Baltimore Ravens – So much for that talk about the Ravens offense now leading the way in Baltimore. The Ravens need to find a way to kick start their running game which has looked ordinary in the first two weeks, albeit against two very good defenses. What we know: Ray Lewis looks 25-years-old and has this defense playing like a top five caliber unit once again.
11. Atlanta Falcons – Showed good offensive balance in their 41-7 drumming of the Cardinals. What we know: Matt Ryan needs to become more consistent week to week for the Falcons to become Super Bowl contenders.
12. Tennessee Titans – Don’t take too much from the Titans offensive performance against the Steelers as they usually struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that excels at stopping the run. Chris Johnson and Vince Young will be just fine. What we know: The Titans wide receivers are nothing to fear.
13. Miami Dolphins – The ‘Fins go to Minnesota for a big win and an opening 2-0 start with both victories coming on the road, a great recipe towards earning a playoff berth. What we know: The Dolphins still need more from their passing game, averaging less than 150 yards passing in their first two contests.
14. Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota’s passing game looks downright atrocious right now. What we know: The Vikings need to rely even more on Adrian Peterson until Favre gets going and Sidney Rice comes back (or they trade for Vincent Jackson).
15. Chicago Bears – If Jay Cutler performs the rest of the year the way he did yesterday, I have the Bears severely under-ranked at number 15. I have my doubts though. What we know: The Bears offense already looks significantly improved under Mike Martz after only two games.
16. New York Giants – I’ll give the nod to the Giants for now in what looks like a jumbled mess in the NFC East. If I could pick any one team or the field to win this division right now, I would most certainly take the field. What we know: The Giants plan to make Peyton Manning run the football last night didn’t work out too well.
17. Washington Redskins – Blowing a 17-point second half lead is the type of loss that can have a team watching the playoffs on television. There is no way that Mike Shanahan and company can allow that to happen at home. What we know: Donovan McNabb (along with Shanahan) has given this team instant credibility.
18. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are off to a miserable start and with their brutal schedule must get it together before it’s too late. Luckily for Dallas the rest of the NFC East, and really the entire NFC, has shown obvious flaws as well. What we know: Wade Phillips seat is getting awfully warm.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – If Michael Vick was going to be the starter going forward I would probably have the Eagles a few spots higher. I don’t blame Andy Reid for playing Kevin Kolb, however, because if it were about this season only Philadelphia would not have traded McNabb. What we know: Philadelphia area sports-talk radio should be pretty darn interesting this week.
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Raise your hand if you had the Steelers, Texans, Dolphins and Chiefs as the only undefeated AFC teams after two weeks. I don’t understand the Chiefs’ strategy of not using Jamaal Charles more but it’s hard to argue with the job new coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel have done. What we know: The Chiefs have done a good job of acquiring good young talent.
21. Denver Broncos – I think Josh McDaniels is one of the better in-game coaches in football. His personnel decisions, however, can certainly be questioned. What we know: The Broncos are a completely different team at home and on the road.
22. San Francisco 49ers – I am very interested in seeing how the 49ers rebound tonight against the defending champs. Their performance could move them way up or way down these rankings. What we know: The Niners need a much better performance from Frank Gore tonight if they are going to have a chance to win. (Editor's Note: The 49ers probably deserve to be a few spots higher after their spirited performance Monday night. We'll keep them here for the time being as they are sure to move themselves up the rankings if they continue to perform at that level.)
23. Seattle Seahawks – The excitement from the beginning of the Pete Carroll era lasted a whole one week in Seattle. What we know: Much like the Broncos, the Seahawks are a completely different team at home than they are on the road.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The lowest ranked team among those still unbeaten deserves a ton of credit for finding a way to win football games. I think the Bucs’ start has a lot more to do with facing Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore at QB than anything else, however. What we know: Nobody had the Bucs and Steelers on a collision course of unbeaten teams going into week three!
25. Jacksonville Jaguars – It probably wasn’t the best day David Garrard has ever had on a football field Sunday after throwing four interceptions against the Chargers. What we know: The Jaguars are probably the best of the bad teams in the NFL, but that really isn’t saying much.
26. Detroit Lions – The Lions suffered another hard-fought loss to the Eagles after managing a late rally to pull within three. What we know: After so many years of complete incompetence from Detroit’s front office, things are finally going in the right direction for Lions’ fans.
27. Carolina Panthers – Carolina should have listened to my strategy of trying to win a game without attempting a single pass. Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, who was inserted late for the ineffective Moore, finished a combined 13-29 for 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 interceptions, four sacks allowed and a lost fumble. Carolina fans might be asking for the return of Delhomme at this point…or maybe not. What we know: The Panthers need to find some semblance of a passing game.
28. Oakland Raiders – I said the Raiders needed to beat the Rams by four points at home if they are going to show any improvement this year. Well they would have, except for the terrible play-calling in the fourth quarter that allowed St. Louis to backdoor a cover. Jason Campbell was also pulled for Bruce Gradkowski, former midget football teammate of mine, in what clearly was a motivational ploy by head coach Tom Cable, and one that worked. What we know: Run DMC (Darren McFadden) looks like he may finally be realizing all of that potential he brought to the league after leaving Arkansas.
29. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are probably lucky to be 1-1 at this point. What we know: Coach Whisenhunt and Larry Fitzgerald will probably watch Kurt Warner on Dancing with the Stars tonight and think, ‘you left us for this!’
30. Cleveland Browns – Cleveland has lost their two games by a combined five points. Unfortunately for them, there are no bonus points for close losses. What we know: You are not going to win many football games with Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace behind center.
31. St. Louis Rams – Say what you want about the Rams but the team has been very competitive in each of its first two games, already a big improvement from last year. What we know: Sam Bradford has a ton of promise but he still has a long way to go to get there.
32. Buffalo Bills – If you’re still reading this you already know how bad Buffalo is. What we know: The Bills should trade one of their three running backs to Green Bay.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Week 2 NFL Picks
I have focused my writing pretty much entirely on the NFL the past couple of weeks as the excitement for the new season has got the best of me. That doesn’t mean I haven’t been playing close attention to the rest of the sports world. Next week it will be time to catch up on some of my year-end baseball thoughts and devote some time to the college gridiron leading up to Pitt’s big show down on Thursday night with Miami.
(In reality, there hasn’t been much to talk about on a national scale in college football. This week’s slate of games is rather weak and all of the favorites won in last week’s marquee match-ups except Michigan, who was aided by the injury to Notre Dame’s quarterback. The only major storylines have been whether Boise should play for the national title, (yawn!) and Michigan QB Denard Robinson who has the look of Michael Vick 2.0).
Before we take a break from the NFL, however, it’s time to take a look at my picks for week two. Last week I finished a decent 8-6-2, with disappointing losses from the Cowboys and Chargers who I thought both outplayed their opponent for the most part. Week two in the NFL is often the most difficult week of the season as we try to decipher what was real and what was an aberration after one week. Let’s do it…
(home teams in caps)
GREEN BAY (-13) over Buffalo – Green Bay is going to score points, it doesn’t matter who they play. In what I thought was a rather bad game for Aaron Rodgers against a pretty good defense last week, Green Bay still managed 27 points. I expect that number to be higher this week and cannot see Trent Edwards keeping up.
Pittsburgh (+5) over TENNESSEE – The Steelers match-up well with the Titans as the entire Tennessee offense is built on the running game and nobody runs the ball well on the Steelers. Chris Johnson had 57 yards on 15 carries last year, his second lowest output of the season. The Steelers may not win this one, but I expect it to be close.
Kansas City (+2) over CLEVELAND – Kansas City looks a little frisky this year and you have to love their young playmakers. Meanwhile, Seneca Wallace will be starting for Cleveland. Unless Josh Cribbs returns three kicks for scores, I like the Chiefs to get off to their first 2-0 start since 2005.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay – I hope nobody misses this Matt Moore vs. Josh Freeman shootout! Seriously, the Panthers should attempt to win this game by not attempting a single pass. I bet they could do it. Actually, it might be a better strategy than the one that allowed Matt Moore to turn the ball over four times last week.
CINCINNATI (+2.5) over Baltimore – Let’s pretend that last week didn’t happen and we would be looking at a line somewhere in the neighborhood of Cincinnati giving three. Because of one week’s events, you’re telling me this line reversed nearly six points? Not to mention the fact that Baltimore is playing its second consecutive road game on a short week against another physical opponent. Cincinnati should be able to exploit Baltimore’s weak and banged up secondary while their defense should rebound from a disappointing opening week.
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Miami – I struggled with this one as 5.5 seems a bit much with Minnesota’s passing game in the shape that it is. That being said, I expect a great performance from A-Pete and a 7-10 point win for the Vikings at home.
DALLAS (-7) over Chicago – Chicago is looking to avoid a 0-2 start…wait, what? They didn’t count Calvin Johnson’s catch?!? Anyways, Dallas’ pass rush should be all over Jay Cutler this week and you know what means, interceptions galore! If the Cowboys can give Tony Romo any amount of time, I think a big performance at home is in store.
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona – If you feel like saving Green Bay in your suicide pool for later in the year, Atlanta is a nice alternative. Did anyone else see how awful Derek Anderson looked last week, or how awful he has looked for two-plus seasons now? I still can’t fully understand what Ken Whisenhunt was thinking when he decided to go with Anderson AND trade Matt Leinart.
Philadelphia (-6.5) over DETROIT – If Matthew Stafford was playing I could see the Lions pulling the upset here but with Shaun Hill behind center I don’t see this game being very close. Looking forward to seeing what Mike Vick can do when a gameplan is in place both for him and against him.
DENVER (-3.5) over Seattle – Denver has played remarkably better at home under Josh McDaniels and I see that trend continuing this week against a Seahawks team primed for a letdown.
OAKLAND (-3.5) over St. Louis – If Oakland wants to show improvement on the field this year, they better be able to beat the Rams at home by more than 3.5 points.
New England (-3) over NEW YORK JETS – Tom Brady versus Mark Sanchez, hmmm….
WASHINGTON (+3) over Houston – Both teams could be in for a letdown after big home opening wins against hated rivals. Give me the home dog.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville – San Diego looked like it found its groove in the second half last week on offense. Jacksonville lost its two west coast games last year by a combined 61-3. I’m betting that the Chargers put half of that 61 on the board, minimum.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over New York Giants – The Manning Bowl…think a few television sets will be tuning into NBC Sunday night? I still feel as though the Colts offense will be as good, if not better, than it has been in sometime. The offensive line will get healthier as the season goes along and Manning will do what is needed in the meantime. The defense, on the other hand, may not be as good as I originally thought especially with another injury to Bob Sanders. I still feel as though that defense gets enough stops Sunday night for Peyton to do his thing and big brother puts up a big performance against little bro’.
SAN FRANCISCO (+6) over New Orleans – Ahhh, the trap game. After the way the 49ers played last week and the way New Orleans offense lights up scoreboards, shouldn’t this line be higher? Vegas knows what they’re doing. Besides, if San Fran doesn’t come out with a big effort this week, all of their offseason momentum would vanish and we could be staring at one of the worst divisions in modern history. (Ignore this paragraph when the Saints are up 24-0 in the 2nd quarter please!)
(In reality, there hasn’t been much to talk about on a national scale in college football. This week’s slate of games is rather weak and all of the favorites won in last week’s marquee match-ups except Michigan, who was aided by the injury to Notre Dame’s quarterback. The only major storylines have been whether Boise should play for the national title, (yawn!) and Michigan QB Denard Robinson who has the look of Michael Vick 2.0).
Before we take a break from the NFL, however, it’s time to take a look at my picks for week two. Last week I finished a decent 8-6-2, with disappointing losses from the Cowboys and Chargers who I thought both outplayed their opponent for the most part. Week two in the NFL is often the most difficult week of the season as we try to decipher what was real and what was an aberration after one week. Let’s do it…
(home teams in caps)
GREEN BAY (-13) over Buffalo – Green Bay is going to score points, it doesn’t matter who they play. In what I thought was a rather bad game for Aaron Rodgers against a pretty good defense last week, Green Bay still managed 27 points. I expect that number to be higher this week and cannot see Trent Edwards keeping up.
Pittsburgh (+5) over TENNESSEE – The Steelers match-up well with the Titans as the entire Tennessee offense is built on the running game and nobody runs the ball well on the Steelers. Chris Johnson had 57 yards on 15 carries last year, his second lowest output of the season. The Steelers may not win this one, but I expect it to be close.
Kansas City (+2) over CLEVELAND – Kansas City looks a little frisky this year and you have to love their young playmakers. Meanwhile, Seneca Wallace will be starting for Cleveland. Unless Josh Cribbs returns three kicks for scores, I like the Chiefs to get off to their first 2-0 start since 2005.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay – I hope nobody misses this Matt Moore vs. Josh Freeman shootout! Seriously, the Panthers should attempt to win this game by not attempting a single pass. I bet they could do it. Actually, it might be a better strategy than the one that allowed Matt Moore to turn the ball over four times last week.
CINCINNATI (+2.5) over Baltimore – Let’s pretend that last week didn’t happen and we would be looking at a line somewhere in the neighborhood of Cincinnati giving three. Because of one week’s events, you’re telling me this line reversed nearly six points? Not to mention the fact that Baltimore is playing its second consecutive road game on a short week against another physical opponent. Cincinnati should be able to exploit Baltimore’s weak and banged up secondary while their defense should rebound from a disappointing opening week.
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Miami – I struggled with this one as 5.5 seems a bit much with Minnesota’s passing game in the shape that it is. That being said, I expect a great performance from A-Pete and a 7-10 point win for the Vikings at home.
DALLAS (-7) over Chicago – Chicago is looking to avoid a 0-2 start…wait, what? They didn’t count Calvin Johnson’s catch?!? Anyways, Dallas’ pass rush should be all over Jay Cutler this week and you know what means, interceptions galore! If the Cowboys can give Tony Romo any amount of time, I think a big performance at home is in store.
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona – If you feel like saving Green Bay in your suicide pool for later in the year, Atlanta is a nice alternative. Did anyone else see how awful Derek Anderson looked last week, or how awful he has looked for two-plus seasons now? I still can’t fully understand what Ken Whisenhunt was thinking when he decided to go with Anderson AND trade Matt Leinart.
Philadelphia (-6.5) over DETROIT – If Matthew Stafford was playing I could see the Lions pulling the upset here but with Shaun Hill behind center I don’t see this game being very close. Looking forward to seeing what Mike Vick can do when a gameplan is in place both for him and against him.
DENVER (-3.5) over Seattle – Denver has played remarkably better at home under Josh McDaniels and I see that trend continuing this week against a Seahawks team primed for a letdown.
OAKLAND (-3.5) over St. Louis – If Oakland wants to show improvement on the field this year, they better be able to beat the Rams at home by more than 3.5 points.
New England (-3) over NEW YORK JETS – Tom Brady versus Mark Sanchez, hmmm….
WASHINGTON (+3) over Houston – Both teams could be in for a letdown after big home opening wins against hated rivals. Give me the home dog.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville – San Diego looked like it found its groove in the second half last week on offense. Jacksonville lost its two west coast games last year by a combined 61-3. I’m betting that the Chargers put half of that 61 on the board, minimum.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over New York Giants – The Manning Bowl…think a few television sets will be tuning into NBC Sunday night? I still feel as though the Colts offense will be as good, if not better, than it has been in sometime. The offensive line will get healthier as the season goes along and Manning will do what is needed in the meantime. The defense, on the other hand, may not be as good as I originally thought especially with another injury to Bob Sanders. I still feel as though that defense gets enough stops Sunday night for Peyton to do his thing and big brother puts up a big performance against little bro’.
SAN FRANCISCO (+6) over New Orleans – Ahhh, the trap game. After the way the 49ers played last week and the way New Orleans offense lights up scoreboards, shouldn’t this line be higher? Vegas knows what they’re doing. Besides, if San Fran doesn’t come out with a big effort this week, all of their offseason momentum would vanish and we could be staring at one of the worst divisions in modern history. (Ignore this paragraph when the Saints are up 24-0 in the 2nd quarter please!)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Steelers Defense Looks Super Worthy
While the New York Jets defense received all of the praise and attention this offseason, and the Baltimore Ravens defense is now bringing up all kinds of nostalgia talk after their dominating performance Monday night, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers who may very quietly have the best defense in the NFL once again. I mentioned in every conversation that I had this offseason concerning how the Steelers would perform without Ben Roethlisberger that I thought people were severely underestimating this Steelers defense. This is the same defense that just less than 20 months ago was being compared to the greatest defenses of all time. Last year defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau saw the departures of two of his starters in Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden AND saw his two best players miss the majority of the season to injuries. How many offensive or defensive units in the league could sustain injuries to their top two players and still perform at a top 5 level like the Steelers did last year?
Now the Steelers not only have a healthy Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith back but Foote and McFadden have returned, Ziggy Hood looks like another good defensive lineman, and Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley have another year of experience under their belts. To put this in perspective, not only do the Steelers have the same personnel as they did in a historical season just two years ago, they are now deeper and have more youth sprinkled in the mix. The Steelers could play out the balance of the season with Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich at quarterback and still be in the playoff hunt with this defense. Once Big Ben returns, and obviously health-dependent, this team should be shooting for nothing less than a return trip to the Super Bowl. This defense should be simply that good.
On Sunday, the Steelers held Michael Turner to 42 yards on 19 carries, roughly 60 yards less than his average per game since joining the Falcons, and held the Falcons to just nine points despite the Steelers inability to sustain drives on the offensive side of the ball. This is no cream-puff offense either, as the Falcons finished 13th in the NFL last year in points at nearly 23 per game despite missing Turner for nearly half of the season. The only Falcon that hurt the Steelers was WR Roddy White, who the Steelers were happy to give up out patterns and not allow him to make the big play. White may have had 13 catches, but his longest was for just 18 yards. The Steelers also recorded two sacks and Polamalu’s wonderful interception that went for nothing after Jeff Reed missed the game winning kick in the final seconds. You would like to see a little more pressure on the quarterback, but all in all it was a dominating performance by the Steelers defense, something they will need again in Tennessee.
Here are some other observations as we look back at week one's win over Atlanta and ahead to the tough match-up at the Titans this coming Sunday:
* I have heard a lot more complaining than I expected over Dennis Dixon’s performance. I am not sure what fans are expecting out of their back-up quarterback. Hell, Dixon’s performance was better than that of at least 12 starters around the league this past weekend. Dixon finished 18-26 for 236 yards and one interception that halted a potential scoring drive. Dixon was solid but not spectacular and avoided making any costly mistakes in the second half of a close game. No question that Dixon missed a couple of throws to the outside, and I think that was the result of him deliberately throwing balls low to avoid interceptions, but had Leftwich or Batch put up the same numbers in a Steelers’ win I do not think for one second we would be hearing the same complaints. Dixon is not the second coming of Dan Marino, but I thought there were some positives in the way he threw the ball. Now the Steelers need to incorporate the use of Dixon’s legs into the offense to truly take advantage of his skill set.
* One of these days Hines Ward will have to slow down after all these years of physical football but if Sunday is any indication, this season will not be the one.
* I thought the offensive line played reasonably well. Dixon was sacked three times, but for the most part had some time to throw and the blocking on Mendenhall’s game winning run was phenomenal. Two of the sacks occurred back to back as the Steelers reached midfield trying to put together a game winning scoring drive. On the one, I thought it was Dixon who held the ball too long and the other looked like a full out blitz. Despite doing an ok job, the Steelers will need a big performance from this unit if they are going to go on the road and move the ball against the Titans, especially in the absence of left tackle Max Starks.
* I was initially very surprised by Mike Tomlin’s decision to attempt a 55-yard field goal near the end of the first half but after seeing Reed hit the upright I was absolutely fine with his decision. In hindsight of course the move was wrong as it cost the Steelers three points when the Falcons maneuvered their way into field goal position of their own and capitalized, but if your kicker can make the field goal, you have to go after the points in a game where points are scarce. Tomlin has to have faith in his defense to make a stop there if Reed misses, one of the few things they were unable to do on Sunday.
* Looking ahead to this week’s game with Tennessee, the match-up is a good one for the Steelers in terms of having to go on the road to face a quality opponent. The Titans offense is built around running the football, something that the Steelers just do not allow to happen. In last year’s meeting, Chris Johnson was held to 57 yards on 15 carries, his second lowest outing of the year, in a 13-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh will be looking to play a very similar style game by focusing on Johnson, keeping the scoring low, and finding a way in the fourth quarter to win.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
NFL Week 1 Recap
Every week (usually on Monday but I pushed it to Tuesday with the Monday night doubleheader this week) I’ll take a quick look back at each of the NFL games’ main storylines from the week that was. To me, the biggest story around the NFL after week one was not the Calvin Johnson non-catch, as bad as that rule is, it was the absolutely terrible coaching that I saw around the league. The Cowboys-Redskins coaching fiasco was the highlight, or shall I say lowlight, of the pathetic coaching jobs performed this week, but I could name ten instances off the top of my head that made utterly no sense even while they were happening. One move that I did not mind was Mike Tomlin attempting the 55-yard field goal. I see both sides of that argument, and in hindsight it cost the Steelers three points, but if your kicker has the distance I cannot fault the attempt. Here we go...
New Orleans 14 – Minnesota 9
Pretty much the entire country watched this one so there’s not much to elaborate on. A sloppy game by both teams finished appropriately with a missed chip shot field goal costing all Saints’ backers the cover. Brett Favre looked a bit rusty in his debut, but I expect both of these teams to be just fine.
Houston 34 – Indianapolis 24
Bob Sanders injured his elbow in the first quarter of the first game and did not return, what else is new. Sanders has missed more games than he has played during his six year career and boy does the Colts’ run defense suffer without him in there. The Colts will bounce back fine from this loss, but the story here is the Texans and running back Arian Foster. Could this be the year that the Texans finally get over the hump and make the playoffs? I thought Tony Dungy said it best when he said they had to win this game for that to happen. It did, so let’s see where they go from here.
Jacksonville 24 – Denver 17
In a battle of two teams headed toward rough seasons, the Jaguars found a way to get an opening day win. From the limited amount of this game that I watched it is no wonder that Jaguars fans don’t come out to the stadium. When you have David Garrard and Kyle Orton flinging balls to the likes of Brandon Lloyd, Mike Thomas, Jabar Gaffney, Kassim Osgood and Eddie Royal, how could anyone want to miss that?!?
Miami 15 – Buffalo 10
Miami was a team that the sharp bettors hammered this weekend and the Bills obliged by giving the Dolphins’ backers a gift-wrapped cover by taking an intentional safety with 1:32 left in the game trailing by three points. In related news, Chan Gailey made his NFL head-coaching return after 11 years. The Dolphins have an excellent offensive line and the two running backs, but if they are going to compete for a playoff spot, Chad Henne and the wide receivers are going to have to make some plays in the passing game.
Chicago 19 – Detroit 14
The catch that wasn’t. Seriously, why in the world does the NFL continue to annoy their fans? This is especially true with a looming lockout in 2011. Fans do not want 18 regular season games. Fans do not want to see their teams lose on some asinine “letter of the law” rule interpretation. It is time for the NFL to drop its holier than thou attitude and bring a little common sense to the game. I didn’t see the catch when it happened but got a text from a buddy who lives in Chicago and is a closet Lions fan. I immediately thought of the Troy Polamalu play in the 2005 playoffs against the Colts. Can you imagine a fanbase’s outrage if and when their team is denied a playoff or Super Bowl berth because of some rule that makes no sense? Come on Roger Goodell, quit worrying about what your players are doing on the weekend and put some common sense into your rulebook.
The loss was doubling crushing for the Lions who lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford for 4-8 weeks with a separated throwing shoulder. It’s too bad as this Detroit organization is beginning to show signs of life after the disastrous Matt Millen era. On the other side of the ball Julius Peppers made an immediate impact on the Bears as he was the one who sacked and injured Stafford. I still think they gave him too much money, but so far so good. Matt Forte also looks like a tremendous fit in the Marshall Faulk role in Mike Martz’ offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the background. Forte could be a fantasy stud this year if the Bears can only learn how to punch it in from the one.
Tennessee 38 – Oakland 13
Vince Young looked tremendous throwing the ball on Sunday. If he can continue throwing the ball that way with Chris Johnson in the backfield and the threat of his legs, the league better watch out. Many expected the Raiders to be improved this year, including myself, but let’s not overreact after one week in a tough road game, across the country.
New England 38 – Cincinnati 24
I thought the Patriots could be flying under the radar this year. Brady is healthy, Welker appears healthy, Moss is motivated for more money. They embarrassed what is supposed to be a very good Cincinnati secondary. The good news for Bengals fans is that Carson Palmer looked much better in catch-up mode than he had all of last year, throwing for 345 yards.
New York 31 – Carolina 18
Carolina is finding out the hard way in this league that it is very hard to win without a good quarterback no matter how good your running backs and offensive line are. Matt Moore threw three red zone interceptions and lost a fumble, a recipe for disaster against a good team on the road. For the Giants, we may have just seen the superstar coming out party for WR Hakeem Nicks.
Tampa Bay 17 – Cleveland 14
If it was not the first game of the year I would skip saying anything about these two very bad teams. On second thought, this column is long enough, let’s keep going.
Arizona 17 – St. Louis 13
Not such a great start for the post-Warner Cardinals. The play of the game was made by Steve Breaston whose hustle and strip tackle of a Rams defensive lineman, who was about to score on a fumble return, saved the game. Also says something about the quality of play in this one when the play of the game is made by a wide receiver tackling a defensive tackle. Sam Bradford is oozing with talent, but he is going to need to learn how to manage the two-minute drill much better than he did Sunday.
Green Bay 27 – Philadelphia 20
First, I must say that it was fun watching Michael Vick up to his old tricks. Andy Reid was also up to his old tricks foolishly calling time outs with five minutes remaining. I am officially offering my services to Reid as a clock consultant. Does the guy have any clue how to manage time?!? It was not the MVP type performance we were expecting from Aaron Rodgers for the Pack, but it was enough to get a win on the road against a solid defense. I expect this Packer passing game to start rolling here in the near-term, especially with the reported loss of Ryan Grant for the season.
Seattle 31 – San Francisco 6
In what to me was the most shocking result of the first week, the Pete Carroll era in Seattle got started with a bang. The Seahawks’ victory itself was not shocking, but the manner in which they physically dominated the 49ers was. San Fran was held to just 49 yards on the ground and was stuffed short on a key 4th and 1 on the Seahawks’ six-yard line in the first quarter. I wonder if Singletary’s boys were reading a little too much of their press clippings coming into week 1.
Washington 13 – Dallas 7
I really don’t even know where to start on this one. Dallas had 380 yards - Washington 250, Dallas had 24 first downs - Washington 17, Dallas 4.7 yards per rush – Washington 3.7. Dallas, however, had 12 penalties for 91 yards to Washington’s 5 for 42 and Dallas’ one turnover (in quite possibly the dumbest play that will occur this season from the coaches to Romo to Choice) to Washington’s none were the difference between the Cowboys winning by two TDs and losing by three, I mean six, after Shanahan kicked what at the time was a very dumb field goal. The worst part is that I thought Mike Shanahan coached an awful game and yet he looked like Vince Lombardi compared to what Wade Phillips and his staff accomplished. I could go on and on, but let’s just say that Bill Cowher’s phone number is moving up the speed dial list on Jerry Jones’ cell phone.
Baltimore 10 – New York 9
I am sure most of you reading this watched Monday’s game so we won’t go into detail. I will say that I am not quite ready to say ‘I told you so’ on Mark Sanchez, but it’s getting pretty darn close. The Jets also lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins for the season again with a torn ACL to the same knee as last year. This is a big blow to what looks like will be a dominating Jets’ defense once again, and a shame for Jenkins who seemed like a pretty likable guy on “Hard Knocks”.
Kansas City 21 – San Diego 14
In the game that probably did the most damage in your local suicide pools, Kansas City used another early season sloppy performance from the Chargers to squeeze out the only win in week one among the four AFC West teams. Norv Turner punted once in the first half and twice in the second half inside the Chiefs’ 42 while the Chiefs’ punted from the Chargers’ 31 yard line! Are you kidding me! All three of the Chargers punts went in the end zone for a touch back while the Chiefs’ went ten yards, worse than a touch back. This is definitely my number one pet peeve among NFL coaches. (Wade Phillips also punted twice inside the 40 in a game his team was struggling to score.) Someone needs to show NFL coaches the mathematical scoring odds of punting and not punting in those situations or more importantly, someone needs to tell NFL coaches to grow some balls. I also didn’t understand the Chargers’ laissez faire attitude on offense in the second half. They were throwing the ball well and moving it up and down the field, going to a no huddle would have kept momentum going and kept the Chiefs’ defense on their heels. The Chargers’ lack of urgency was what I thought most cost them this game.
That’ll do it for a look back on week one. Overall I thought it was a badly played weekend of football and even a worse-coached one. I expect to see a vastly improved performance from a number of teams this week. Oh, you thought I forgot…I’ll be back on Wednesday with a combined look back on the Steelers overtime win and a look ahead to a very tough road trip to Tennessee.
New Orleans 14 – Minnesota 9
Pretty much the entire country watched this one so there’s not much to elaborate on. A sloppy game by both teams finished appropriately with a missed chip shot field goal costing all Saints’ backers the cover. Brett Favre looked a bit rusty in his debut, but I expect both of these teams to be just fine.
Houston 34 – Indianapolis 24
Bob Sanders injured his elbow in the first quarter of the first game and did not return, what else is new. Sanders has missed more games than he has played during his six year career and boy does the Colts’ run defense suffer without him in there. The Colts will bounce back fine from this loss, but the story here is the Texans and running back Arian Foster. Could this be the year that the Texans finally get over the hump and make the playoffs? I thought Tony Dungy said it best when he said they had to win this game for that to happen. It did, so let’s see where they go from here.
Jacksonville 24 – Denver 17
In a battle of two teams headed toward rough seasons, the Jaguars found a way to get an opening day win. From the limited amount of this game that I watched it is no wonder that Jaguars fans don’t come out to the stadium. When you have David Garrard and Kyle Orton flinging balls to the likes of Brandon Lloyd, Mike Thomas, Jabar Gaffney, Kassim Osgood and Eddie Royal, how could anyone want to miss that?!?
Miami 15 – Buffalo 10
Miami was a team that the sharp bettors hammered this weekend and the Bills obliged by giving the Dolphins’ backers a gift-wrapped cover by taking an intentional safety with 1:32 left in the game trailing by three points. In related news, Chan Gailey made his NFL head-coaching return after 11 years. The Dolphins have an excellent offensive line and the two running backs, but if they are going to compete for a playoff spot, Chad Henne and the wide receivers are going to have to make some plays in the passing game.
Chicago 19 – Detroit 14
The catch that wasn’t. Seriously, why in the world does the NFL continue to annoy their fans? This is especially true with a looming lockout in 2011. Fans do not want 18 regular season games. Fans do not want to see their teams lose on some asinine “letter of the law” rule interpretation. It is time for the NFL to drop its holier than thou attitude and bring a little common sense to the game. I didn’t see the catch when it happened but got a text from a buddy who lives in Chicago and is a closet Lions fan. I immediately thought of the Troy Polamalu play in the 2005 playoffs against the Colts. Can you imagine a fanbase’s outrage if and when their team is denied a playoff or Super Bowl berth because of some rule that makes no sense? Come on Roger Goodell, quit worrying about what your players are doing on the weekend and put some common sense into your rulebook.
The loss was doubling crushing for the Lions who lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford for 4-8 weeks with a separated throwing shoulder. It’s too bad as this Detroit organization is beginning to show signs of life after the disastrous Matt Millen era. On the other side of the ball Julius Peppers made an immediate impact on the Bears as he was the one who sacked and injured Stafford. I still think they gave him too much money, but so far so good. Matt Forte also looks like a tremendous fit in the Marshall Faulk role in Mike Martz’ offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the background. Forte could be a fantasy stud this year if the Bears can only learn how to punch it in from the one.
Tennessee 38 – Oakland 13
Vince Young looked tremendous throwing the ball on Sunday. If he can continue throwing the ball that way with Chris Johnson in the backfield and the threat of his legs, the league better watch out. Many expected the Raiders to be improved this year, including myself, but let’s not overreact after one week in a tough road game, across the country.
New England 38 – Cincinnati 24
I thought the Patriots could be flying under the radar this year. Brady is healthy, Welker appears healthy, Moss is motivated for more money. They embarrassed what is supposed to be a very good Cincinnati secondary. The good news for Bengals fans is that Carson Palmer looked much better in catch-up mode than he had all of last year, throwing for 345 yards.
New York 31 – Carolina 18
Carolina is finding out the hard way in this league that it is very hard to win without a good quarterback no matter how good your running backs and offensive line are. Matt Moore threw three red zone interceptions and lost a fumble, a recipe for disaster against a good team on the road. For the Giants, we may have just seen the superstar coming out party for WR Hakeem Nicks.
Tampa Bay 17 – Cleveland 14
If it was not the first game of the year I would skip saying anything about these two very bad teams. On second thought, this column is long enough, let’s keep going.
Arizona 17 – St. Louis 13
Not such a great start for the post-Warner Cardinals. The play of the game was made by Steve Breaston whose hustle and strip tackle of a Rams defensive lineman, who was about to score on a fumble return, saved the game. Also says something about the quality of play in this one when the play of the game is made by a wide receiver tackling a defensive tackle. Sam Bradford is oozing with talent, but he is going to need to learn how to manage the two-minute drill much better than he did Sunday.
Green Bay 27 – Philadelphia 20
First, I must say that it was fun watching Michael Vick up to his old tricks. Andy Reid was also up to his old tricks foolishly calling time outs with five minutes remaining. I am officially offering my services to Reid as a clock consultant. Does the guy have any clue how to manage time?!? It was not the MVP type performance we were expecting from Aaron Rodgers for the Pack, but it was enough to get a win on the road against a solid defense. I expect this Packer passing game to start rolling here in the near-term, especially with the reported loss of Ryan Grant for the season.
Seattle 31 – San Francisco 6
In what to me was the most shocking result of the first week, the Pete Carroll era in Seattle got started with a bang. The Seahawks’ victory itself was not shocking, but the manner in which they physically dominated the 49ers was. San Fran was held to just 49 yards on the ground and was stuffed short on a key 4th and 1 on the Seahawks’ six-yard line in the first quarter. I wonder if Singletary’s boys were reading a little too much of their press clippings coming into week 1.
Washington 13 – Dallas 7
I really don’t even know where to start on this one. Dallas had 380 yards - Washington 250, Dallas had 24 first downs - Washington 17, Dallas 4.7 yards per rush – Washington 3.7. Dallas, however, had 12 penalties for 91 yards to Washington’s 5 for 42 and Dallas’ one turnover (in quite possibly the dumbest play that will occur this season from the coaches to Romo to Choice) to Washington’s none were the difference between the Cowboys winning by two TDs and losing by three, I mean six, after Shanahan kicked what at the time was a very dumb field goal. The worst part is that I thought Mike Shanahan coached an awful game and yet he looked like Vince Lombardi compared to what Wade Phillips and his staff accomplished. I could go on and on, but let’s just say that Bill Cowher’s phone number is moving up the speed dial list on Jerry Jones’ cell phone.
Baltimore 10 – New York 9
I am sure most of you reading this watched Monday’s game so we won’t go into detail. I will say that I am not quite ready to say ‘I told you so’ on Mark Sanchez, but it’s getting pretty darn close. The Jets also lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins for the season again with a torn ACL to the same knee as last year. This is a big blow to what looks like will be a dominating Jets’ defense once again, and a shame for Jenkins who seemed like a pretty likable guy on “Hard Knocks”.
Kansas City 21 – San Diego 14
In the game that probably did the most damage in your local suicide pools, Kansas City used another early season sloppy performance from the Chargers to squeeze out the only win in week one among the four AFC West teams. Norv Turner punted once in the first half and twice in the second half inside the Chiefs’ 42 while the Chiefs’ punted from the Chargers’ 31 yard line! Are you kidding me! All three of the Chargers punts went in the end zone for a touch back while the Chiefs’ went ten yards, worse than a touch back. This is definitely my number one pet peeve among NFL coaches. (Wade Phillips also punted twice inside the 40 in a game his team was struggling to score.) Someone needs to show NFL coaches the mathematical scoring odds of punting and not punting in those situations or more importantly, someone needs to tell NFL coaches to grow some balls. I also didn’t understand the Chargers’ laissez faire attitude on offense in the second half. They were throwing the ball well and moving it up and down the field, going to a no huddle would have kept momentum going and kept the Chiefs’ defense on their heels. The Chargers’ lack of urgency was what I thought most cost them this game.
That’ll do it for a look back on week one. Overall I thought it was a badly played weekend of football and even a worse-coached one. I expect to see a vastly improved performance from a number of teams this week. Oh, you thought I forgot…I’ll be back on Wednesday with a combined look back on the Steelers overtime win and a look ahead to a very tough road trip to Tennessee.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Week 1 NFL Picks
No need to beat it around the bush with some boring introductory paragraph that is usually mandatory when writing these pick columns. You have seen my season outlook and my preseason power rankings, let’s just dive right into my NFL Week 1 Picks (I guess I already made you read an introductory paragraph at this point!).
(home teams in caps)
NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Minnesota – Fired up home crowd + banged up Brett Favre – Sidney Rice = New Orleans win and cover.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Carolina – I think the Giants are in for a bounce back season. If they’re going to do that, they will need to get off to a fast start at home. That and Matt Moore on the road scares the heck out of me.
Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA – Rodgers over Kolb, thank you very much.
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Atlanta – Give me the home dog with the better defense…or just call me a homer.
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO – Miami quite possibly has the best offensive line in the NFL. Buffalo doesn’t have the best anything. Their only advantage over Miami is cold weather. Unfortunately for Buffalo, weather won’t be a factor in September.
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO - The Lions should be able to score enough points and get enough pressure on Cutler to make this game close in the fourth quarter. Even if Detroit is down big early, a backdoor cover could easily come into play.
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati – Give me the Patriots at home with a little something to prove this year.
Indianapolis (-2) over HOUSTON – The hardest line of the week to figure out. Are you really going to go against Manning giving less than a field goal? I didn’t think so.
TENNESSEE (-6) over Oakland – For those of you in suicide polls, here is my top pick for week 1 to win. Raiders are improved but to expect them to go on the road, across the country, against one of the league's best o-lines is asking a ton. VY is only 26-13 as a starter, the Titans are only a year removed from 13-3 and only finished last year on an 8-2 run.
Denver (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – Tough game to pick here as Denver was terrible on the road last year. Maurice Jones-Drew’s health could be the deciding factor. Since we don’t know for sure how MJD knee is feeling, give me Denver.
Cleveland (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Cleveland looks like a franchise that is going in the right direction while Tampa seems stuck in neutral. Give me the veteran QB in week 1, even if his name happens to be Jake Delhomme.
San Francisco (-3) over SEATTLE – Pete Carroll has overhauled the Seahawks’ roster. That could or couldn’t be a good thing. Either way, the 49ers are still the more talented team.
ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona – I will call his the pro-Sam Bradford pick, though I could just as easily call it the anti-Derek Anderson pick.
Dallas (-3.5) over Washington – Washington will be a dangerous team as the season moves along but I think it will take a few weeks before Shanahan and McNabb really settle in. Dallas showed absolutely nothing during the preseason, I expect them to come out like gangbusters.
Baltimore (+3) over NEW YORK JETS – We’ll call this the bandwagon game as no two teams have more casual fans jumping on board than the Jets and Ravens. I simply don’t trust the Sanchize at this point. Call me wacco for Flacco, for one week anyways.
San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY – San Diego is perennially a slow starter and start on the road against a division rival. Pick the Chiefs, right? Nah, I can’t get the thought of Rivers vs. Cassel out of my mind.
(home teams in caps)
NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Minnesota – Fired up home crowd + banged up Brett Favre – Sidney Rice = New Orleans win and cover.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Carolina – I think the Giants are in for a bounce back season. If they’re going to do that, they will need to get off to a fast start at home. That and Matt Moore on the road scares the heck out of me.
Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA – Rodgers over Kolb, thank you very much.
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Atlanta – Give me the home dog with the better defense…or just call me a homer.
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO – Miami quite possibly has the best offensive line in the NFL. Buffalo doesn’t have the best anything. Their only advantage over Miami is cold weather. Unfortunately for Buffalo, weather won’t be a factor in September.
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO - The Lions should be able to score enough points and get enough pressure on Cutler to make this game close in the fourth quarter. Even if Detroit is down big early, a backdoor cover could easily come into play.
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati – Give me the Patriots at home with a little something to prove this year.
Indianapolis (-2) over HOUSTON – The hardest line of the week to figure out. Are you really going to go against Manning giving less than a field goal? I didn’t think so.
TENNESSEE (-6) over Oakland – For those of you in suicide polls, here is my top pick for week 1 to win. Raiders are improved but to expect them to go on the road, across the country, against one of the league's best o-lines is asking a ton. VY is only 26-13 as a starter, the Titans are only a year removed from 13-3 and only finished last year on an 8-2 run.
Denver (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – Tough game to pick here as Denver was terrible on the road last year. Maurice Jones-Drew’s health could be the deciding factor. Since we don’t know for sure how MJD knee is feeling, give me Denver.
Cleveland (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Cleveland looks like a franchise that is going in the right direction while Tampa seems stuck in neutral. Give me the veteran QB in week 1, even if his name happens to be Jake Delhomme.
San Francisco (-3) over SEATTLE – Pete Carroll has overhauled the Seahawks’ roster. That could or couldn’t be a good thing. Either way, the 49ers are still the more talented team.
ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona – I will call his the pro-Sam Bradford pick, though I could just as easily call it the anti-Derek Anderson pick.
Dallas (-3.5) over Washington – Washington will be a dangerous team as the season moves along but I think it will take a few weeks before Shanahan and McNabb really settle in. Dallas showed absolutely nothing during the preseason, I expect them to come out like gangbusters.
Baltimore (+3) over NEW YORK JETS – We’ll call this the bandwagon game as no two teams have more casual fans jumping on board than the Jets and Ravens. I simply don’t trust the Sanchize at this point. Call me wacco for Flacco, for one week anyways.
San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY – San Diego is perennially a slow starter and start on the road against a division rival. Pick the Chiefs, right? Nah, I can’t get the thought of Rivers vs. Cassel out of my mind.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
NFL Season Predictions
The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. Last week’s power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2010 NFL season playing out.
AFC East
New England Patriots – 11-5
New York Jets – 9-7
Miami Dolphins – 8-8
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
The return of Darrelle Revis makes the top of this division a whole lot more interesting but I still favor Tom Brady and company. The Jets defense should be enough to earn them a playoff spot but expect Miami to be nipping at their heels throughout the season.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers – 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals – 9-7
Cleveland Browns – 4-12
Baltimore looks on paper like the team to beat in this division, especially if the secondary can get healthy as the season goes on. I think Pittsburgh survives Roethlisberger’s absence and becomes legitimate Super Bowl contenders with a healthy defense. Cincinnati’s season should be interesting, to say the least, but I just don’t see the same Carson Palmer as a few years back. Cleveland is, well Cleveland is Cleveland.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts – 13-3
Tennessee Titans – 8-8
Houston Texans – 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
Peyton Manning hasn’t had this many weapons on offense since Edge and Marvin Harrison were in their primes. Expect Indy to make it eight straight seasons with 12 or more wins. Tennessee and Houston will both be battling for one of the coveted wild card spots but ultimately I see both falling just short. In Jacksonville, I suspect this could be the final season for head coach Jack Del Rio.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Denver Broncos – 7-9
Oakland Raiders – 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs – 6-10
The Chargers are once again the class of the AFC West despite the loss of LaDainian Tomlinson and the absence of Vincent Jackson. The Broncos could be in some serious trouble after trading away Brandon Marshall and losing Elvis Dumervil to an injury. I do expect marked improvement from the Chiefs and Raiders, but not enough just yet to truly compete for a playoff berth.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys – 11-5
New York Giants – 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles – 8-8
Washington Redskins – 7-9
This division should be the most competitive top to bottom in the National Football League. I expect two teams from the “NFC Beast” to find their way into the playoffs, and those two teams could very well be whichever ones can stay the healthiest during the season.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings – 11-5
Green Bay Packers – 10-6
Chicago Bears – 6-10
Detroit Lions – 4-12
The NFC North should be a great race between Favre and his old team in Green Bay. Many are giving the Packers the preseason edge especially after the hip surgery underwent by Sidney Rice. I look at these rosters and still see a better defense, better o-line and better running back in Minnesota no matter how much I love Aaron Rodgers.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 10-6
Atlanta Falcons – 9-7
Carolina Panthers – 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4-12
I do not think Drew Brees and the Saints will be as good as they were a year ago. Between the Super Bowl hangover, their knack for causing turnovers a tough thing to duplicate and their relatively healthy season last year, I just see a bit of a drop off. I do expect their explosive offense to be enough to hold off the Atlanta Falcons, however, who are looking for bounce back years from Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. If Carolina can get a bounce or two, they could very well find themselves back in the playoff hunt as well with their dynamic backfield duo. The Bucs - not so much.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers – 10-6
Arizona Cardinals – 7-9
Seattle Seahawks – 6-10
St. Louis Rams – 5-11
The 49ers should win the worst division in football going away this year with just too many questions facing each of the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams. I do really like rookie QB Sam Bradford, who gives St. Louis’ fans some hope once again.
Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Offensive Player of the Year – Adrian Peterson
Defensive Player of the Year – Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Sam Bradford
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Earl Thomas
Coach of the Year – Mike Singletary
Playoffs
New England over New York, Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York over San Francisco, Green Bay over New Orleans
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh, New England over Baltimore
Dallas over New York, Minnesota over Green Bay
Indianapolis over New England, Dallas over Minnesota
Super Bowl XLV
Indianapolis over Dallas
AFC East
New England Patriots – 11-5
New York Jets – 9-7
Miami Dolphins – 8-8
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
The return of Darrelle Revis makes the top of this division a whole lot more interesting but I still favor Tom Brady and company. The Jets defense should be enough to earn them a playoff spot but expect Miami to be nipping at their heels throughout the season.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers – 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals – 9-7
Cleveland Browns – 4-12
Baltimore looks on paper like the team to beat in this division, especially if the secondary can get healthy as the season goes on. I think Pittsburgh survives Roethlisberger’s absence and becomes legitimate Super Bowl contenders with a healthy defense. Cincinnati’s season should be interesting, to say the least, but I just don’t see the same Carson Palmer as a few years back. Cleveland is, well Cleveland is Cleveland.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts – 13-3
Tennessee Titans – 8-8
Houston Texans – 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
Peyton Manning hasn’t had this many weapons on offense since Edge and Marvin Harrison were in their primes. Expect Indy to make it eight straight seasons with 12 or more wins. Tennessee and Houston will both be battling for one of the coveted wild card spots but ultimately I see both falling just short. In Jacksonville, I suspect this could be the final season for head coach Jack Del Rio.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Denver Broncos – 7-9
Oakland Raiders – 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs – 6-10
The Chargers are once again the class of the AFC West despite the loss of LaDainian Tomlinson and the absence of Vincent Jackson. The Broncos could be in some serious trouble after trading away Brandon Marshall and losing Elvis Dumervil to an injury. I do expect marked improvement from the Chiefs and Raiders, but not enough just yet to truly compete for a playoff berth.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys – 11-5
New York Giants – 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles – 8-8
Washington Redskins – 7-9
This division should be the most competitive top to bottom in the National Football League. I expect two teams from the “NFC Beast” to find their way into the playoffs, and those two teams could very well be whichever ones can stay the healthiest during the season.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings – 11-5
Green Bay Packers – 10-6
Chicago Bears – 6-10
Detroit Lions – 4-12
The NFC North should be a great race between Favre and his old team in Green Bay. Many are giving the Packers the preseason edge especially after the hip surgery underwent by Sidney Rice. I look at these rosters and still see a better defense, better o-line and better running back in Minnesota no matter how much I love Aaron Rodgers.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 10-6
Atlanta Falcons – 9-7
Carolina Panthers – 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4-12
I do not think Drew Brees and the Saints will be as good as they were a year ago. Between the Super Bowl hangover, their knack for causing turnovers a tough thing to duplicate and their relatively healthy season last year, I just see a bit of a drop off. I do expect their explosive offense to be enough to hold off the Atlanta Falcons, however, who are looking for bounce back years from Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. If Carolina can get a bounce or two, they could very well find themselves back in the playoff hunt as well with their dynamic backfield duo. The Bucs - not so much.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers – 10-6
Arizona Cardinals – 7-9
Seattle Seahawks – 6-10
St. Louis Rams – 5-11
The 49ers should win the worst division in football going away this year with just too many questions facing each of the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams. I do really like rookie QB Sam Bradford, who gives St. Louis’ fans some hope once again.
Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Offensive Player of the Year – Adrian Peterson
Defensive Player of the Year – Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Sam Bradford
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Earl Thomas
Coach of the Year – Mike Singletary
Playoffs
New England over New York, Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York over San Francisco, Green Bay over New Orleans
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh, New England over Baltimore
Dallas over New York, Minnesota over Green Bay
Indianapolis over New England, Dallas over Minnesota
Super Bowl XLV
Indianapolis over Dallas
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Pitt Preview and Season Outlook
Pitt opens their season tonight at Utah amongst a good bit of optimism and high expectations surrounding the team. Everyone knows about the star power the Panthers possess with Dion Lewis, Jon Baldwin, Greg Romeus, Jabaal Sheard and even Jason Pinkston at left tackle, but as a friend and non-Pitt fan said to me (and I am paraphrasing), “knowing nothing else what would you say about a team traveling cross-country in its first game with a new quarterback, a new middle-linebacker, three new starters on the interior offensive line, and two new starters on the defensive line and at corner playing a team that hasn’t lost at home since 2007?” Well, glad you asked, seems like a perfect way to preview the Panthers opener tonight and season in general. Let’s take a look at Pitt’s potential weaknesses starting with the least concerning moving towards the most concerning.
Middle-Linebacker – Dan Mason, from Penn Hills High School, takes over at MLB as a true sophomore and just oozes with talent. Yes, Mason may make a mistake with some over-aggressiveness typical of a young player, but he will more than make up for it with his play-making ability. Dave Wannstedt has been raving about this kid since the day he stepped on campus and we are about to find out why. Mason could turn out to be the best in a long line of recent Pitt MLBs that include NFL players H.B. Blades, Gerald Hayes and Scott McKillop.
Defensive Tackle – Myles Caragein and Chas Alecxih are the starters at DT and Caragein brings with him plenty of experience as he was the third man in the defensive tackle rotation last season and was very solid during his time on the field. True freshman Aaron Donald, also of Penn Hills, Tyler Tkach and Tyrone Ezell are all expected to contribute at some point during the season as part of the d-line rotation. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the d-tackles as Wannstedt and his staff have proven their ability to recruit and develop defensive lineman time and again. Besides, with the attention that the two defensive ends will garner, solid play is all that is needed from the tackle position.
Quarterback – Here is where some apprehension begins. Tino Sunseri takes over from Bill Stull who surprisingly put together a pretty fantastic senior campaign. The reason, however, that Stull was able to put together that season is the same reason I would not be too concerned with Sunseri: Pitt will not ask him to do more than he is capable of. Sunseri will be asked to handoff, use play-action, throw deep and in general, give his talented receivers a chance to make plays without turning the ball over. Knowing Sunseri’s background, I see no reason he cannot accomplish this. Anything more that he can give would be a bonus. Even if Sunseri were to go down, the Panthers will have veteran back-up Pat Bostick to turn to who brings many of the same qualities.
Cornerback – Now is where Pitt fans can genuinely be concerned. The Panthers will start senior Ricky Gary and junior Antwuan Reed at corner with the third corner spot ultimately going to true freshmen K’waun Williams, an unheralded 3-star recruit out of New Jersey. This development must have been a disappointment to the Pitt coaching staff who were probably counting on the development of talented juniors Buddy Jackson (Jackson is listed at the 3rd corner spot for now, but all indications are that Wiliams will assume this role) and Saheed Imoru. Yes, unheralded three star corner recruits have panned out in the past (anyone ever hear of Darrelle Revis?), but of the three corners expected to see most of the action, only Gary has extensive experience. Wannstedt’s defensive philosophy of dropping seven in coverage and applying pressure on the quarterback with his front four, plus Pitt's experience at the safety position, could allow the Panthers to somewhat hide this weakness on defense. One positive note is that the only team on the schedule that really appears able to exploit the Panthers' CBs is Miami, with their NFL-caliber WRs and Jacory Harris at QB. A herculean effort from Romeus and Sheard will be needed for that one.
Interior Offensive Line – The area that most concerns me for the Panthers is the interior offensive line that will have three new starters and practically no depth what-so-ever. The key to everything the Panthers want to do on an offense focused on the running game begins and ends up front. Left guard Chris Jacobson is talented, has some experience and will be fine but there are certainly questions about center Alex Karabin, a former walk-on, and right guard Greg Gaskins. The good news is that both players are veterans and that the Panthers should be able to give them plenty of help in the form of double-teams, traps and the like because of their talented tackles and fullback, Henry Hynoski. The bad news is that the Panthers line will be tested right from the start. The Utah defensive line is talented, experienced and is expected to anchor what is otherwise an inexperienced defense. If this unit is to become successful at all, they absolutely must stay healthy.
Pitt’s opening game in Utah tonight is interesting to me for a number of reasons. A win would put added emphasis on the Miami game in a few weeks and could very well send Pitt onto some bigger aspirations on the national stage. A loss would refocus the Panthers season back to a Big East championship, but at the same time would once again put doubt in people’s minds about the ability of this program to make the next big step.
I like the Panthers offensive line to hold up just enough for their skill guys to make some big plays against an inexperienced Utah back seven and for Pitt’s defensive ends to make life a bit miserable for Utah’s young quarterback Jordan Wynn. Pitt wins 27-20, sending the Panthers on their way to a 4-1 non-conference record followed by a 6-1 Big East championship season, landing the Panthers in a BCS Bowl Game for the first time since 2005, with a record of 10-2.
Middle-Linebacker – Dan Mason, from Penn Hills High School, takes over at MLB as a true sophomore and just oozes with talent. Yes, Mason may make a mistake with some over-aggressiveness typical of a young player, but he will more than make up for it with his play-making ability. Dave Wannstedt has been raving about this kid since the day he stepped on campus and we are about to find out why. Mason could turn out to be the best in a long line of recent Pitt MLBs that include NFL players H.B. Blades, Gerald Hayes and Scott McKillop.
Defensive Tackle – Myles Caragein and Chas Alecxih are the starters at DT and Caragein brings with him plenty of experience as he was the third man in the defensive tackle rotation last season and was very solid during his time on the field. True freshman Aaron Donald, also of Penn Hills, Tyler Tkach and Tyrone Ezell are all expected to contribute at some point during the season as part of the d-line rotation. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the d-tackles as Wannstedt and his staff have proven their ability to recruit and develop defensive lineman time and again. Besides, with the attention that the two defensive ends will garner, solid play is all that is needed from the tackle position.
Quarterback – Here is where some apprehension begins. Tino Sunseri takes over from Bill Stull who surprisingly put together a pretty fantastic senior campaign. The reason, however, that Stull was able to put together that season is the same reason I would not be too concerned with Sunseri: Pitt will not ask him to do more than he is capable of. Sunseri will be asked to handoff, use play-action, throw deep and in general, give his talented receivers a chance to make plays without turning the ball over. Knowing Sunseri’s background, I see no reason he cannot accomplish this. Anything more that he can give would be a bonus. Even if Sunseri were to go down, the Panthers will have veteran back-up Pat Bostick to turn to who brings many of the same qualities.
Cornerback – Now is where Pitt fans can genuinely be concerned. The Panthers will start senior Ricky Gary and junior Antwuan Reed at corner with the third corner spot ultimately going to true freshmen K’waun Williams, an unheralded 3-star recruit out of New Jersey. This development must have been a disappointment to the Pitt coaching staff who were probably counting on the development of talented juniors Buddy Jackson (Jackson is listed at the 3rd corner spot for now, but all indications are that Wiliams will assume this role) and Saheed Imoru. Yes, unheralded three star corner recruits have panned out in the past (anyone ever hear of Darrelle Revis?), but of the three corners expected to see most of the action, only Gary has extensive experience. Wannstedt’s defensive philosophy of dropping seven in coverage and applying pressure on the quarterback with his front four, plus Pitt's experience at the safety position, could allow the Panthers to somewhat hide this weakness on defense. One positive note is that the only team on the schedule that really appears able to exploit the Panthers' CBs is Miami, with their NFL-caliber WRs and Jacory Harris at QB. A herculean effort from Romeus and Sheard will be needed for that one.
Interior Offensive Line – The area that most concerns me for the Panthers is the interior offensive line that will have three new starters and practically no depth what-so-ever. The key to everything the Panthers want to do on an offense focused on the running game begins and ends up front. Left guard Chris Jacobson is talented, has some experience and will be fine but there are certainly questions about center Alex Karabin, a former walk-on, and right guard Greg Gaskins. The good news is that both players are veterans and that the Panthers should be able to give them plenty of help in the form of double-teams, traps and the like because of their talented tackles and fullback, Henry Hynoski. The bad news is that the Panthers line will be tested right from the start. The Utah defensive line is talented, experienced and is expected to anchor what is otherwise an inexperienced defense. If this unit is to become successful at all, they absolutely must stay healthy.
Pitt’s opening game in Utah tonight is interesting to me for a number of reasons. A win would put added emphasis on the Miami game in a few weeks and could very well send Pitt onto some bigger aspirations on the national stage. A loss would refocus the Panthers season back to a Big East championship, but at the same time would once again put doubt in people’s minds about the ability of this program to make the next big step.
I like the Panthers offensive line to hold up just enough for their skill guys to make some big plays against an inexperienced Utah back seven and for Pitt’s defensive ends to make life a bit miserable for Utah’s young quarterback Jordan Wynn. Pitt wins 27-20, sending the Panthers on their way to a 4-1 non-conference record followed by a 6-1 Big East championship season, landing the Panthers in a BCS Bowl Game for the first time since 2005, with a record of 10-2.
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