HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND – We cannot dismiss the entire season because of what happened last week. Sure, the Patriots looked unbeatable against Denver and Baltimore struggled to get by Houston, but that doesn't necessarily give us any insight into this week. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots got up early and a couple Joe Flacco interceptions made this game get a bit out of hand. More likely, however, is that a very good Ravens defense, Ray Rice and a team that is 7-0 this year against other playoff teams (New England, by the way, played only 2 playoff teams and lost both games) is able to stay in this game. Ultimately, Tom Brady is the best player on the field and the Patriots escape with a close, hard-fought victory. Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
New York (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Better QB, better weapons on offense and a pass rush that seems almost unblockable give the Giants a big edge in this one. The 49ers have a ton going in their favor, an old-school type team that is playing sensational defense, winning the turnover battle, creating field position with their special teams and has it's QB playing the best football of his career - not to mention home-field advantage. All of those things aren't enough for me to pick against Eli and the more talented team. Giants 27 - 49ers 20
Showing posts with label NFL Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Playoffs. Show all posts
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Saturday, January 14, 2012
NFL Divisional Round Picks
Well the return of the blog did not get off to the start I wanted last week. After suffering through a miserable Steelers loss and a 1-3 wildcard weekend, the flu put me out of commission for the early part of the week. While my thoughts on most of the sports world will have to wait until next week for now, we'll look to get this week off to a much better start with a big comeback in the NFL Divisional Round!
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New Orleans – At the beginning of the year I picked New Orleans and New England to meet in the Super Bowl and I have to admit that those picks feel pretty good right now. However, this game has all the makings of a San Francisco upset. New Orleans has found it more difficult to score on the road, especially outdoors, where they average only 25.8 points per game versus 35.6 indoors. Moreover, the Saints have really struggled scoring when they have been unable to run the football. Well guess what, New Orleans is on the road, outdoors and will really struggle to run the football against the 49ers' top ranked run defense. Throw in the fact that Sean Payton's coaching, usually a monster advantage in almost every game, is pretty much nullified by Jim Harbaugh and his staff having two full weeks to prepare for this one. I'm not yet ready to give up on my pick of the Saints as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl but I think this one comes down to a last second field goal, and while I am picking the Saints, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the 49ers advance. Saints 27 - 49ers 24
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver – Remember last year when Seattle upset New Orleans at home and everyone wondered if they could do it again on the road the following week in Chicago? Well guess what, Chicago throttled the Seahawks before taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and this one is even more of a mismatch. Throw in the Patriots refusal to ever take their foot off the gas and I can see this one getting ugly. I don't think I really need to go into all of the football details why New England will win this one big. Of course, Tim Tebow is involved (I tried my hardest not to mention him here but it was impossible) and weirder things have happened, but ultimately last week is going to be the highlight of this Broncos season. Patriots 38 - Broncos 20
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston – The case for the Texans is that they can limit Ray Rice, run the football and shorten the game while expecting to capitalize on a Joe Flacco mistake at some point during the game. Could it happen? Sure, but that is a lot of circumstances that need to play out. The way I see it is that the Texans are really going to struggle on offense against the Ravens fantastic rush defense and T.J. Yates will be confused by the Ravens blitzing attack. Joe Flacco probably doesn't need to play well to win but I suspect he will after hearing a ton of criticism leading up to this one. Ultimately, I think we get a game that looks awfully familiar to the one the Ravens won in week 6. Ravens 27 – Texans 10
GREEN BAY(-7.5) over New York Giants – This was by far the hardest of the four games for me to pick because the Giants definitely have the ingredients to make this one close and possibly even pull the monumental upset. Their ability to get after Aaron Rodgers, especially if the Pack's o-line is banged up, on defense and Eli Manning and the Giants very capable passing offense give the G-Men a fighting chance in this one. Much like the 49ers, however, the Packers have had 2 weeks to get healthy and prepare for this one and oh yea, they just happen to be the best team in football since the beginning of last season's playoffs! There's always one wildcard weekend team that gets a little overhyped heading into the second weekend before falling flat on its face and this year I think it could be the Giants. Packers 37 – Giants 24
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New Orleans – At the beginning of the year I picked New Orleans and New England to meet in the Super Bowl and I have to admit that those picks feel pretty good right now. However, this game has all the makings of a San Francisco upset. New Orleans has found it more difficult to score on the road, especially outdoors, where they average only 25.8 points per game versus 35.6 indoors. Moreover, the Saints have really struggled scoring when they have been unable to run the football. Well guess what, New Orleans is on the road, outdoors and will really struggle to run the football against the 49ers' top ranked run defense. Throw in the fact that Sean Payton's coaching, usually a monster advantage in almost every game, is pretty much nullified by Jim Harbaugh and his staff having two full weeks to prepare for this one. I'm not yet ready to give up on my pick of the Saints as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl but I think this one comes down to a last second field goal, and while I am picking the Saints, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the 49ers advance. Saints 27 - 49ers 24
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver – Remember last year when Seattle upset New Orleans at home and everyone wondered if they could do it again on the road the following week in Chicago? Well guess what, Chicago throttled the Seahawks before taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and this one is even more of a mismatch. Throw in the Patriots refusal to ever take their foot off the gas and I can see this one getting ugly. I don't think I really need to go into all of the football details why New England will win this one big. Of course, Tim Tebow is involved (I tried my hardest not to mention him here but it was impossible) and weirder things have happened, but ultimately last week is going to be the highlight of this Broncos season. Patriots 38 - Broncos 20
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston – The case for the Texans is that they can limit Ray Rice, run the football and shorten the game while expecting to capitalize on a Joe Flacco mistake at some point during the game. Could it happen? Sure, but that is a lot of circumstances that need to play out. The way I see it is that the Texans are really going to struggle on offense against the Ravens fantastic rush defense and T.J. Yates will be confused by the Ravens blitzing attack. Joe Flacco probably doesn't need to play well to win but I suspect he will after hearing a ton of criticism leading up to this one. Ultimately, I think we get a game that looks awfully familiar to the one the Ravens won in week 6. Ravens 27 – Texans 10
GREEN BAY(-7.5) over New York Giants – This was by far the hardest of the four games for me to pick because the Giants definitely have the ingredients to make this one close and possibly even pull the monumental upset. Their ability to get after Aaron Rodgers, especially if the Pack's o-line is banged up, on defense and Eli Manning and the Giants very capable passing offense give the G-Men a fighting chance in this one. Much like the 49ers, however, the Packers have had 2 weeks to get healthy and prepare for this one and oh yea, they just happen to be the best team in football since the beginning of last season's playoffs! There's always one wildcard weekend team that gets a little overhyped heading into the second weekend before falling flat on its face and this year I think it could be the Giants. Packers 37 – Giants 24
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
NFL Postseason Smorgasbord
The NFL Wild Card weekend featured three games that came down to the wire and a blow-out in Kansas City which sets up the rubber matches in the AFC and a couple of rematches in the NFC. Here are my thoughts on the weekend that was and a little bit on the Divisional Round upcoming:
· I am kicking myself for not pulling the trigger on the Jets for my official picks (my actual wager, had gabling been legal, was theoretically on the Jets, again if sports betting were legal). I knew they had the better team and matched up extremely well versus a banged up Colts team. I just couldn’t get over the Manning against Sanchez factor on Friday when I made my picks. Manning did play a pretty good game and Sanchez flat out stunk, but it was the Jets ability to put the ball in the end zone while the Colts settled for field goals in the second half that made the difference.
· If Sanchez stunk inside a dome, against a pretty vanilla Colts’ defensive scheme and with his running backs churning out well over four yards a run, how do you think Sanchez is going to fare in the freezing, blustering conditions of Foxboro against a Bell Belichick coached defense?
· I get the impression that Rex Ryan knows this and is trying to deflect attention away from his quarterback by his trash talking. That or he just doesn’t know how to shut up. 50/50 on that one I guess…but seriously, Rex, how can you run your mouth after what the Patriots did to you just a few weeks ago?
· I am not kicking myself for picking the Saints over the Seahawks. If you saw that game coming you are flat-out lying, or you are one of those people that kind-of predict things during the week by saying things like, “I don’t know, the Seahawks are at home”, just so you can say “I told you so if the unexpected thing happens.” If your money was on the line Saturday, I bet you had the Saints (pardon the pun!).
· I thought there was a chance Seattle could hang a little if they could run the ball, take time off the clock and get their crowd into it by hanging around early but no way did I think they could win without a few fluke plays or special teams’ gaffes by the Saints. The game went completely opposite of anything I thought….the Saints jumped out to a 10-0 and 17-7 lead, only had the one turnover which was only converted into 3 points by the ‘Hawks, Drew Brees was fantastic, and yet the Seahawks came away victorious. I am still flabbergasted by it.
· The reason Seattle was able to win was the superb downfield passing by Matt Hasselbeck. I think the veteran QB got a little lucky on a couple of those throws, which looked more like hot-air balloons, falling perfectly into his receivers arms but that doesn’t take away anything from what he did Saturday. The guy has been a good quarterback in the NFL for a long time.
· One thing the Seahawks win did uphold is that each of their losses has still occurred by 15 points or more. I guess you can take that as a little foreshadowing for Friday’s picks.
· There is really not much to say about the Ravens and Chiefs. The game went pretty much as I, and most others, expected it to go. Although the final score did get a little more out of hand than I anticipated. Expecting Matt Cassel to beat that Ravens defense in his first career playoff start was asking a bit much even for the most diehard Chiefs fans out there.
· Joe Flacco is now 4-2 in the postseason despite having yet to play a home playoff game in his three years. I thought it was kind of telling, however, that his 196 yards passing at halftime were the most he had ever thrown for in a playoff game (Flacco finished with 265 yards passing). The Ravens will need to continue to take the kiddy gloves off of their QB if they expect to win in Pittsburgh this week. Anything short of a great effort from Flacco and it’s going to be tough against the Steelers, who appear to be playing their best football of the season heading into the playoffs.
· I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if we do see a great performance from Flacco this week as he looks to be coming nicely into his own.
· Lastly, I thought the Packers were the vastly superior team to the Eagles on Sunday but Mike McCarthy did his best once again to allow the Eagles to hang around. Mike, why would you not call time out with nearly two minutes remaining in the first half after stopping the Eagles on 3rd down? Why did you go conservative in the fourth quarter allowing the Eagles a chance with the ball in the final two minutes to win the game?
· I really don’t think McCarthy is a bad coach. In fact, I think he is an excellent offensive mind and a pretty good play-caller. His vertical passing game is fantastic, I love his sense of timing on the screen passes (like the one in the red zone in which Brandon Jackson scored), and I love his ability to manufacture a running game with different formations and looks. I just don’t understand his game management often times. He has Aaron Rodgers, a legitimate superstar and on the fast track to being one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL. McCarthy needs to get out of the way and let Rodgers do his thing as often as possible. I love the Pack’s chances this week but if I were a Packers’ fan the biggest thing I would fear right now is McCarthy’s game management skills.
· It was a fun ride for Michael Vick and company but the jury remains out if you can win a Super Bowl with him as your quarterback. Don’t take that the wrong way; Vick is a fantastic quarterback who almost guarantees you a playoff spot on his own if he is healthy. I am talking about taking that next step to being great, the ability to lead your team to victory in a tough spot when everything hasn’t gone your way. We have seen Brady do it numerous times...Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger have all done it, and it is what separates the these guys from the rest. Vick still has not proven he can do it and I am not sure he ever will.
· That’s it for today. I will be back Friday for a breakdown of the Divisional Round and if you can read between the lines above you can probably guess which way I am leaning on the four games.
· I am kicking myself for not pulling the trigger on the Jets for my official picks (my actual wager, had gabling been legal, was theoretically on the Jets, again if sports betting were legal). I knew they had the better team and matched up extremely well versus a banged up Colts team. I just couldn’t get over the Manning against Sanchez factor on Friday when I made my picks. Manning did play a pretty good game and Sanchez flat out stunk, but it was the Jets ability to put the ball in the end zone while the Colts settled for field goals in the second half that made the difference.
· If Sanchez stunk inside a dome, against a pretty vanilla Colts’ defensive scheme and with his running backs churning out well over four yards a run, how do you think Sanchez is going to fare in the freezing, blustering conditions of Foxboro against a Bell Belichick coached defense?
· I get the impression that Rex Ryan knows this and is trying to deflect attention away from his quarterback by his trash talking. That or he just doesn’t know how to shut up. 50/50 on that one I guess…but seriously, Rex, how can you run your mouth after what the Patriots did to you just a few weeks ago?
· I am not kicking myself for picking the Saints over the Seahawks. If you saw that game coming you are flat-out lying, or you are one of those people that kind-of predict things during the week by saying things like, “I don’t know, the Seahawks are at home”, just so you can say “I told you so if the unexpected thing happens.” If your money was on the line Saturday, I bet you had the Saints (pardon the pun!).
· I thought there was a chance Seattle could hang a little if they could run the ball, take time off the clock and get their crowd into it by hanging around early but no way did I think they could win without a few fluke plays or special teams’ gaffes by the Saints. The game went completely opposite of anything I thought….the Saints jumped out to a 10-0 and 17-7 lead, only had the one turnover which was only converted into 3 points by the ‘Hawks, Drew Brees was fantastic, and yet the Seahawks came away victorious. I am still flabbergasted by it.
· The reason Seattle was able to win was the superb downfield passing by Matt Hasselbeck. I think the veteran QB got a little lucky on a couple of those throws, which looked more like hot-air balloons, falling perfectly into his receivers arms but that doesn’t take away anything from what he did Saturday. The guy has been a good quarterback in the NFL for a long time.
· One thing the Seahawks win did uphold is that each of their losses has still occurred by 15 points or more. I guess you can take that as a little foreshadowing for Friday’s picks.
· There is really not much to say about the Ravens and Chiefs. The game went pretty much as I, and most others, expected it to go. Although the final score did get a little more out of hand than I anticipated. Expecting Matt Cassel to beat that Ravens defense in his first career playoff start was asking a bit much even for the most diehard Chiefs fans out there.
· Joe Flacco is now 4-2 in the postseason despite having yet to play a home playoff game in his three years. I thought it was kind of telling, however, that his 196 yards passing at halftime were the most he had ever thrown for in a playoff game (Flacco finished with 265 yards passing). The Ravens will need to continue to take the kiddy gloves off of their QB if they expect to win in Pittsburgh this week. Anything short of a great effort from Flacco and it’s going to be tough against the Steelers, who appear to be playing their best football of the season heading into the playoffs.
· I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if we do see a great performance from Flacco this week as he looks to be coming nicely into his own.
· Lastly, I thought the Packers were the vastly superior team to the Eagles on Sunday but Mike McCarthy did his best once again to allow the Eagles to hang around. Mike, why would you not call time out with nearly two minutes remaining in the first half after stopping the Eagles on 3rd down? Why did you go conservative in the fourth quarter allowing the Eagles a chance with the ball in the final two minutes to win the game?
· I really don’t think McCarthy is a bad coach. In fact, I think he is an excellent offensive mind and a pretty good play-caller. His vertical passing game is fantastic, I love his sense of timing on the screen passes (like the one in the red zone in which Brandon Jackson scored), and I love his ability to manufacture a running game with different formations and looks. I just don’t understand his game management often times. He has Aaron Rodgers, a legitimate superstar and on the fast track to being one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL. McCarthy needs to get out of the way and let Rodgers do his thing as often as possible. I love the Pack’s chances this week but if I were a Packers’ fan the biggest thing I would fear right now is McCarthy’s game management skills.
· It was a fun ride for Michael Vick and company but the jury remains out if you can win a Super Bowl with him as your quarterback. Don’t take that the wrong way; Vick is a fantastic quarterback who almost guarantees you a playoff spot on his own if he is healthy. I am talking about taking that next step to being great, the ability to lead your team to victory in a tough spot when everything hasn’t gone your way. We have seen Brady do it numerous times...Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger have all done it, and it is what separates the these guys from the rest. Vick still has not proven he can do it and I am not sure he ever will.
· That’s it for today. I will be back Friday for a breakdown of the Divisional Round and if you can read between the lines above you can probably guess which way I am leaning on the four games.
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