After a 2-0 Conference Championship weekend, I am 5-5 heading into the Super Bowl and need the right pick here to have a profitable postseason. Let's cut right to it:
New England (-3) over New York. I could give you a hundred reasons why each team will win this game, and quite frankly after two weeks of build up and Super Bowl coverage on every sports network, you have heard every one of these reasons. I like New England simply because I believe their offensive line can neutralize what is the Giants' biggest strength, their defensive front's ability to put pressure on the QB without blitzing. If the Giants are unable to do this, Tom Brady is going to have a field day with or without Gronkowski. I don't think New England's defense is capable of slowing down Eli and his potent WRs either, at least not for the whole game, so I expect a fair amount of points to be put up but at the end of the day, Brady and Belichick get ring number four. Patriots 31 - Giants 27.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Conference Championship Picks
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Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND – We cannot dismiss the entire season because of what happened last week. Sure, the Patriots looked unbeatable against Denver and Baltimore struggled to get by Houston, but that doesn't necessarily give us any insight into this week. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots got up early and a couple Joe Flacco interceptions made this game get a bit out of hand. More likely, however, is that a very good Ravens defense, Ray Rice and a team that is 7-0 this year against other playoff teams (New England, by the way, played only 2 playoff teams and lost both games) is able to stay in this game. Ultimately, Tom Brady is the best player on the field and the Patriots escape with a close, hard-fought victory. Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
New York (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Better QB, better weapons on offense and a pass rush that seems almost unblockable give the Giants a big edge in this one. The 49ers have a ton going in their favor, an old-school type team that is playing sensational defense, winning the turnover battle, creating field position with their special teams and has it's QB playing the best football of his career - not to mention home-field advantage. All of those things aren't enough for me to pick against Eli and the more talented team. Giants 27 - 49ers 20
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND – We cannot dismiss the entire season because of what happened last week. Sure, the Patriots looked unbeatable against Denver and Baltimore struggled to get by Houston, but that doesn't necessarily give us any insight into this week. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots got up early and a couple Joe Flacco interceptions made this game get a bit out of hand. More likely, however, is that a very good Ravens defense, Ray Rice and a team that is 7-0 this year against other playoff teams (New England, by the way, played only 2 playoff teams and lost both games) is able to stay in this game. Ultimately, Tom Brady is the best player on the field and the Patriots escape with a close, hard-fought victory. Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
New York (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Better QB, better weapons on offense and a pass rush that seems almost unblockable give the Giants a big edge in this one. The 49ers have a ton going in their favor, an old-school type team that is playing sensational defense, winning the turnover battle, creating field position with their special teams and has it's QB playing the best football of his career - not to mention home-field advantage. All of those things aren't enough for me to pick against Eli and the more talented team. Giants 27 - 49ers 20
Saturday, January 14, 2012
NFL Divisional Round Picks
Well the return of the blog did not get off to the start I wanted last week. After suffering through a miserable Steelers loss and a 1-3 wildcard weekend, the flu put me out of commission for the early part of the week. While my thoughts on most of the sports world will have to wait until next week for now, we'll look to get this week off to a much better start with a big comeback in the NFL Divisional Round!
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SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New Orleans – At the beginning of the year I picked New Orleans and New England to meet in the Super Bowl and I have to admit that those picks feel pretty good right now. However, this game has all the makings of a San Francisco upset. New Orleans has found it more difficult to score on the road, especially outdoors, where they average only 25.8 points per game versus 35.6 indoors. Moreover, the Saints have really struggled scoring when they have been unable to run the football. Well guess what, New Orleans is on the road, outdoors and will really struggle to run the football against the 49ers' top ranked run defense. Throw in the fact that Sean Payton's coaching, usually a monster advantage in almost every game, is pretty much nullified by Jim Harbaugh and his staff having two full weeks to prepare for this one. I'm not yet ready to give up on my pick of the Saints as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl but I think this one comes down to a last second field goal, and while I am picking the Saints, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the 49ers advance. Saints 27 - 49ers 24
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver – Remember last year when Seattle upset New Orleans at home and everyone wondered if they could do it again on the road the following week in Chicago? Well guess what, Chicago throttled the Seahawks before taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and this one is even more of a mismatch. Throw in the Patriots refusal to ever take their foot off the gas and I can see this one getting ugly. I don't think I really need to go into all of the football details why New England will win this one big. Of course, Tim Tebow is involved (I tried my hardest not to mention him here but it was impossible) and weirder things have happened, but ultimately last week is going to be the highlight of this Broncos season. Patriots 38 - Broncos 20
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston – The case for the Texans is that they can limit Ray Rice, run the football and shorten the game while expecting to capitalize on a Joe Flacco mistake at some point during the game. Could it happen? Sure, but that is a lot of circumstances that need to play out. The way I see it is that the Texans are really going to struggle on offense against the Ravens fantastic rush defense and T.J. Yates will be confused by the Ravens blitzing attack. Joe Flacco probably doesn't need to play well to win but I suspect he will after hearing a ton of criticism leading up to this one. Ultimately, I think we get a game that looks awfully familiar to the one the Ravens won in week 6. Ravens 27 – Texans 10
GREEN BAY(-7.5) over New York Giants – This was by far the hardest of the four games for me to pick because the Giants definitely have the ingredients to make this one close and possibly even pull the monumental upset. Their ability to get after Aaron Rodgers, especially if the Pack's o-line is banged up, on defense and Eli Manning and the Giants very capable passing offense give the G-Men a fighting chance in this one. Much like the 49ers, however, the Packers have had 2 weeks to get healthy and prepare for this one and oh yea, they just happen to be the best team in football since the beginning of last season's playoffs! There's always one wildcard weekend team that gets a little overhyped heading into the second weekend before falling flat on its face and this year I think it could be the Giants. Packers 37 – Giants 24
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SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New Orleans – At the beginning of the year I picked New Orleans and New England to meet in the Super Bowl and I have to admit that those picks feel pretty good right now. However, this game has all the makings of a San Francisco upset. New Orleans has found it more difficult to score on the road, especially outdoors, where they average only 25.8 points per game versus 35.6 indoors. Moreover, the Saints have really struggled scoring when they have been unable to run the football. Well guess what, New Orleans is on the road, outdoors and will really struggle to run the football against the 49ers' top ranked run defense. Throw in the fact that Sean Payton's coaching, usually a monster advantage in almost every game, is pretty much nullified by Jim Harbaugh and his staff having two full weeks to prepare for this one. I'm not yet ready to give up on my pick of the Saints as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl but I think this one comes down to a last second field goal, and while I am picking the Saints, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the 49ers advance. Saints 27 - 49ers 24
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver – Remember last year when Seattle upset New Orleans at home and everyone wondered if they could do it again on the road the following week in Chicago? Well guess what, Chicago throttled the Seahawks before taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and this one is even more of a mismatch. Throw in the Patriots refusal to ever take their foot off the gas and I can see this one getting ugly. I don't think I really need to go into all of the football details why New England will win this one big. Of course, Tim Tebow is involved (I tried my hardest not to mention him here but it was impossible) and weirder things have happened, but ultimately last week is going to be the highlight of this Broncos season. Patriots 38 - Broncos 20
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston – The case for the Texans is that they can limit Ray Rice, run the football and shorten the game while expecting to capitalize on a Joe Flacco mistake at some point during the game. Could it happen? Sure, but that is a lot of circumstances that need to play out. The way I see it is that the Texans are really going to struggle on offense against the Ravens fantastic rush defense and T.J. Yates will be confused by the Ravens blitzing attack. Joe Flacco probably doesn't need to play well to win but I suspect he will after hearing a ton of criticism leading up to this one. Ultimately, I think we get a game that looks awfully familiar to the one the Ravens won in week 6. Ravens 27 – Texans 10
GREEN BAY(-7.5) over New York Giants – This was by far the hardest of the four games for me to pick because the Giants definitely have the ingredients to make this one close and possibly even pull the monumental upset. Their ability to get after Aaron Rodgers, especially if the Pack's o-line is banged up, on defense and Eli Manning and the Giants very capable passing offense give the G-Men a fighting chance in this one. Much like the 49ers, however, the Packers have had 2 weeks to get healthy and prepare for this one and oh yea, they just happen to be the best team in football since the beginning of last season's playoffs! There's always one wildcard weekend team that gets a little overhyped heading into the second weekend before falling flat on its face and this year I think it could be the Giants. Packers 37 – Giants 24
Saturday, January 7, 2012
The Blog is Back with Wildcard Weekend Picks!
Happy New Year everyone! The Blog is back after an extended layoff and I am excited about getting back into the swing of things. Next week I will launch the full comeback, including thoughts on a ton of subjects that have gone down over the past month or so including the Pirates offseason, Sidney Crosby’s status, the Pitt coaching debacle and subsequent hire, Penn State’s new coach and the struggle that has been the Pitt basketball season so far. In addition, we will soon be up and running with a new Facebook page and twitter account. I will have plenty of details about those in the coming weeks on the blog, but today is all about the NFL playoffs!
It is every gamblers goal to have a perfect NFL postseason, 11-0 against the spread. I accomplished this during the Steelers 2005 Super Bowl run and just like a NFL quarterback will tell you, the first one only makes you want the second one that much more. With that, let’s dive into the Wildcard weekend games:
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Cincinnati (+3) over HOUSTON– It’s usually easy money betting against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs but what do you do when both teams are starting a rookie?!? I think that answer is pretty simple, take the guy who has started all year long and hasn’t totally sucked in the past three weeks. T.J. Yates started out playing well for the Texans but was so bad in his past three games that Texans fans seriously debated if Jake Delhomme should be starting this week. If Andre Johnson were completely healthy I may be singing a different tune but Johnson has been a near non-factor since week 4. The Bengals may not win this one outright but I think it’s coming down to the last possession. Take the points and run. Bengals 23 – Texans 21 on a last second field goal.
Detroit (+11) over NEW ORLEANS – The Saints won their previously meeting in New Orleans by 14 but were only leading by 7 in the fourth quarter and the Lions played that game without their madman, Ndamukong Suh. Can the Lions stop the Saints? Of course not, but I think they can slow them down just enough to keep this one interesting. Saints 37 – Lions 27.
NEW YORK (-3) over Atlanta – The Giants are the sleeping giant of the 2012 playoffs. Their Super Bowl winning QB is playing some of the best football of his career, they have very underrated WRs on offense, can get after the passer on defense and have the right mixture of experience and youth that serves well in the playoffs. The Falcons, meanwhile, are pretty much the same team that has been one and done in the playoffs the past two years. I like Matty Ice as a quarterback, I really do. His consistency makes him a guy that can get your team to the playoffs year in and year out. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, that’s about the extent of his talent. Giants 31 – Falcons 20.
Pittsburgh (-9) over DENVER – Despite the loss of Rashard Mendenhall, despite the absence of Maurkice Pouncey and Ryan Clark and despite Ben Roethlisberger hobbling around on one ankle, I don’t see how the Broncos keep this one close without a couple of those “how in the world did that happen” plays that are all too familiar in the NFL. Personally, I love what the Broncos have done with Tebow and their offense over the final 11 games of the season. Can Tebow succeed long-term? I’m not sure yet, he does need to improve as a passer but he is not all that far away from being an extremely dangerous dual-threat quarterback. The question long-term in my opinion will be his ability to stay healthy. But he is not there yet and this week the Broncos could be in big trouble on offense. Steelers 27 – Broncos 6.
It is every gamblers goal to have a perfect NFL postseason, 11-0 against the spread. I accomplished this during the Steelers 2005 Super Bowl run and just like a NFL quarterback will tell you, the first one only makes you want the second one that much more. With that, let’s dive into the Wildcard weekend games:
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cincinnati (+3) over HOUSTON– It’s usually easy money betting against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs but what do you do when both teams are starting a rookie?!? I think that answer is pretty simple, take the guy who has started all year long and hasn’t totally sucked in the past three weeks. T.J. Yates started out playing well for the Texans but was so bad in his past three games that Texans fans seriously debated if Jake Delhomme should be starting this week. If Andre Johnson were completely healthy I may be singing a different tune but Johnson has been a near non-factor since week 4. The Bengals may not win this one outright but I think it’s coming down to the last possession. Take the points and run. Bengals 23 – Texans 21 on a last second field goal.
Detroit (+11) over NEW ORLEANS – The Saints won their previously meeting in New Orleans by 14 but were only leading by 7 in the fourth quarter and the Lions played that game without their madman, Ndamukong Suh. Can the Lions stop the Saints? Of course not, but I think they can slow them down just enough to keep this one interesting. Saints 37 – Lions 27.
NEW YORK (-3) over Atlanta – The Giants are the sleeping giant of the 2012 playoffs. Their Super Bowl winning QB is playing some of the best football of his career, they have very underrated WRs on offense, can get after the passer on defense and have the right mixture of experience and youth that serves well in the playoffs. The Falcons, meanwhile, are pretty much the same team that has been one and done in the playoffs the past two years. I like Matty Ice as a quarterback, I really do. His consistency makes him a guy that can get your team to the playoffs year in and year out. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, that’s about the extent of his talent. Giants 31 – Falcons 20.
Pittsburgh (-9) over DENVER – Despite the loss of Rashard Mendenhall, despite the absence of Maurkice Pouncey and Ryan Clark and despite Ben Roethlisberger hobbling around on one ankle, I don’t see how the Broncos keep this one close without a couple of those “how in the world did that happen” plays that are all too familiar in the NFL. Personally, I love what the Broncos have done with Tebow and their offense over the final 11 games of the season. Can Tebow succeed long-term? I’m not sure yet, he does need to improve as a passer but he is not all that far away from being an extremely dangerous dual-threat quarterback. The question long-term in my opinion will be his ability to stay healthy. But he is not there yet and this week the Broncos could be in big trouble on offense. Steelers 27 – Broncos 6.
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