NFL Power Rankings (And Week 8 Picks)

It has been a while since we did the NFL Power Rankings and since the hometown team is number one, now seems like a great time. That and in most likelihood nobody wants to see my picks after another poor week (which you can find at the bottom of the rankings).

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – The loss of Aaron Smith is a big one but the Steelers still have the most balanced talent on offense and defense in the League.

2. New York Jets – You could easily make the argument for the Jets to be in the top spot but the difference for me is Roethlisberger over Sanchez.

3. New York Giants – The NFC looks quite inferior to the AFC with the exception of New York and Atlanta. The Giants pass rush is fearsome and Eli has a ton of weapons to work with on offense.

4. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts have suffered numerous injuries but you know who is still there and most of the injured players are expected back before the stretch run.

5. New England Patriots – They may have traded Randy Moss, a move that I still do not like for their Super Bowl chances, but the Patriots continue to win with solid but unspectacular play and fantastic gameplans from Bill Belichick.

6. Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are another of the very balanced attacks with Michael Turner running the football and Roddy White on the outside catching it. The Falcons could use some shoring up on the defensive side of the ball, however.

7. Baltimore Ravens – Buffalo exposed Baltimore’s vulnerable secondary last week, something that I have been waiting to happen for weeks now. Still, this Baltimore team will be there in the end fighting for a Super Bowl appearance.

8. Tennessee Titans – Jeff Fisher’s boys just know how to get it done, nothing flashy, just hard-nosed football on both sides of the ball. The emergence of Kenny Britt at WR could be a big time difference-maker for this team.

9. Green Bay Packers – The Packers squeeze in as the third NFC representative in the League’s top 10 but it hasn’t been pretty for these guys. I’ve said it one thousand times already but I will say it again, speed up the game on offense. You have one of the league’s premier quarterbacks!

10. Houston Texans – Houston has been inconsistent this year from quarter to quarter, let alone game to game. Still, the Texans sit in a good spot at 4-2 and head to Indianapolis this week in another big AFC South game.

11. Kansas City Chiefs – I was tempted to put their rival in San Diego above them but the Chiefs continue to win football games while the Chargers continue to find ways to lose football games.

12. San Diego Chargers – Ladies and gentlemen, the NFL’s number one offense and defense, the San Diego Chargers! In this wacky league, that translates to a 2-4 record. This team is undisciplined, turnover-prone, and seems to have an on-off switch during games. Hmm, I wonder who that falls on…Norv Turner anyone?

13. Miami Dolphins – Need more proof that this league makes no sense? The Dolphins are 3-0 on the road but 0-3 at home. I do think this team has a lot of room for growth with the continued development of Chad Henne.

14. Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota, to me, still has the look of one of the NFC’s premier teams. Now they just have to get Brett Favre to quit throwing the football to the other team. I’d also like to have a few bucks on Favre playing this week.

15. New Orleans Saints – The Saints look nothing like the team that steamrolled opponents on offense last year and forced turnovers at will on defense. I expected the defense to take a big step back, but I wonder if Drew Brees is hiding some kind of an injury.

16. Philadelphia Eagles – Reid has to play Vick at this point and that probably does not help the long term plans of the franchise. The Eagles were the toast of the NFC last week and now look like a fringe playoff team. That is the nature of the beast in a very average NFC.

17. Seattle Seahawks – Seattle looks like they could be rising to the top of the pathetic NFC West. Matt Hasselbeck gives them a veteran presence and their home-field advantage is second to none.

18. Washington Redskins – Redskins’ fans probably need some blood pressure medicine after watching every one of their team’s games come down to the wire. I have a feeling that loss to St. Louis will come back to haunt these guys when the playoffs roll around.

19. Chicago Bears – Never been a fan of Jay Cutler, never will be.

20. Dallas Cowboys – Romo’s injury probably puts an end to any hope Dallas had at making a run in the topsy-turvy NFC.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs are certainly improving and young QB Josh Freeman looks like the real-deal but seriously, would you take the Buccaneers on a neutral field over any of the teams ahead of them in these rankings? I didn’t think so…

22. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals finally get a great performance from Carson Palmer and their defense lets them down. I said much earlier this year that this team will be much worse than the sum of its parts and that certainly looks to be the case. Marvin Lewis could be out of a job at year end.

23. Oakland Raiders – I don’t think anyone saw that beat down coming in Denver last week. If Oakland can get the solid play Jason Campbell has provided the last two weeks and Darren McFadden can stay healthy, this is not a team many people will want to play as the year goes on.

24. Arizona Cardinals – Proof number approximately eight billion that this is a quarterback’s league. If Kurt Warner would have played football this year instead of dancing on TV, my guess is that the Cards would be headed for another playoff appearance.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jacksonville’s given up 209 points on the year, the most in the league and second only to Buffalo in points per game. That’s pretty impressive considering the Broncos gave up nearly 60 last week.

26. Detroit Lions – Detroit has actually outscored their opponents this year and yet they sit at 1-5. Matthew Stafford returns this week and I expect continued improvement from the Lions over the second half of the season.

27. Cleveland Browns – The Browns are well-coached, play hard and compete in every game. The lack of talent, however, is still the major issue in Cleveland.

28. Saint Louis Rams – The Rams proved their youth last week, blowing a fourth quarter lead to the Buccaneers in a game they absolutely needed for their division title hopes. This team continues to trend in the right direction but the next step is to get a play-making pass catcher for Sam Bradford.

29. Denver Broncos – Josh McDaniels started 6-0 as coach of the Broncos, since then he is 4-13. Getting killed at home by one of your biggest rivals is one surefire way to find yourself on the hot seat.

30. San Francisco 49ers – The NFL is sending Denver and San Francisco over to Europe this week for the League’s annual game across the pond. I am sure the spectators in England cannot wait for this one.

31. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers became the last team to get a win with a home victory over the 49ers last week. I doubt many people were tuned in to see that one.

32. Buffalo Bills – Their offense has shown some life under Ryan Fitzpatrick but their defense is the League’s worst unit, giving up 33 points per game.

Week 8 Picks (Home Team in Caps)
Miami (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
DALLAS (-6.5) over Jacksonville
Washington (+3) over DETROIT
Buffalo (+7.5) over KANSAS CITY
Green Bay (+6) over NEW YORK JETS
SAN FRANCISCO (-1) over Denver
ST. LOUIS (-3) over Carolina
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Tennessee
ARIZONA (-3) over Tampa Bay
Minnesota (+5) over NEW ENGLAND
Seattle (+3) over OAKLAND
Pittsburgh (pk) over NEW ORLEANS
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Houston
(Last Week: 4-10; Overall: 44-55-5)

NBA Season Kicks Off

The NBA season kicked off Tuesday night with one of the most anticipated team debuts in a long time as everyone wanted to see what the new-look Miami Heat would do. The answer came quickly as the Heat looked rusty and out of sync after battling some injuries in the preseason and sharing the court for only four minutes prior to the opening tip Tuesday night. With the final few teams set to play their openers tonight, here’s some things I am looking at as the season goes on and maybe a little of what I expect to happen.

· While all of the championship talk is centered on the Heat, Lakers and Celtics, the forgotten team amongst the elite is the Orlando Magic. The Magic have won more playoff series over the past two years than anyone not named the Lakers and were easily the best team in the NBA over the second of half of the season last year. A very poorly played conference championship against the Celtics and the new Big Three in Miami has everyone forgetting about the team down in Orlando. I am not saying the Magic are going to win in it all but they belong in the conversation for the league’s best team.

· That being said, I still expect the Heat to have the League’s best record by season’s end with something along the lines of 61 or 62 wins. The question will not be how good this team will be over the long haul but rather can they overcome their obvious deficiencies and win a series against the massive size advantages the Magic, Celtics and Lakers would have.

· This has to be the most talented the league has been since I have been alive. I can’t remember ever when so many teams have such strong nucleuses. Check these out:

Miami – LeBron, Wade, Bosh
Boston – Rondo, Pierce, Allen, KG, Shaq and a deep bench
Orlando – Howard, Carter, Lewis, Nelson
Chicago – Rose, Boozer, Noah, Deng
Atlanta – Johnson, Smith, Horford
Milwaukee – Jennings, Bogut, Salmons
L.A. Lakers – Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Artest
Dallas – Dirk, Kidd, Butler, Chandler
Oklahoma City – Durant, Westbrook, Green
Portland – Roy, Aldridge, Miller, Camby, Oden
San Antonio – Duncan, Parker, Ginobli
Houston – Yao, Brooks, Battier, Martin, Scola
Utah – Williams, Jefferson, Okur
Denver – Melo, Billups, Martin, Nene

By my count that’s nearly half the league that has the nucleus of a good to very good team. That is ignoring some franchise-type players stuck on bad or mediocre teams such as Steve Nash and Chris Paul and a number of very good, young franchise building blocks stuck on bad teams such as Stephon Curry, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love and more. David Stern has hit the jackpot in terms of the NBA having its best product since Jordan retired, especially with so many of its stars being extremely marketable.

· The Lakers are pretty clearly the favorite out West but age and injury have to be a concern. Teams such as the Thunder, Rockets and Blazers have extremely strong nucleus and the assets to improve at the trade deadline while veteran squads such as the Mavericks, Jazz and Nuggets are still knocking at the door. I know people want to write the Lakers in as the Western Conference representative, and I agree they are certainly the favorite, but it is going to be much harder than people realize.

· As my longtime readers know we followed Kevin Durant pretty closely last year on the blog including tracking his consecutive 20-point games streak. Durant has now burst onto the national scene after becomig the league’s youngest scoring champ and leading the U.S. team to the FIBA World Championships title this summer. We still secretely love Durant here at The People’s Quarterback headquarters, but his notoriety has passed us by. I will try to find another player that is flying under the radar for his talents that we can start enjoying here on the blog.

· The early favorite for that player is Blake Griffin. I watched the Clippers-Blazers game late last night almost in its entirety (Yes I know, who stays up late to watch that game…but give me a break, I love basketball and had a screaming baby up all night, makes for a pretty easy combination.) and couldn’t get over Griffin’s abilities. Most people probably know Griffin as the College Player of the Year two years ago at Oklahoma and the first overall pick of the draft before an injury ended his rookie season before it started. Well Griffin is back and looks as good as ever. He finished last night with 20 points and 14 rebounds, 9 of those on the offensive end, in a losing effort. We’ll be keeping a close eye on him here in the blog.

· Prediction Time:

Eastern Conference:
1. Miami
2. Orlando
3. Boston
4. Chicago
5. Atlanta
6. Milwaukee
7. New York Knicks
8. Charlotte
9. Indiana
10. Philadelphia
11. Washington
12. Cleveland
13. Detroit
14. New Jersey
15. Toronto

Western Conference:
1. LA Lakers
2. Dallas
3. Portland
4. Oklahoma City
5. Denver
6. San Antonio
7. Utah
8. Houston
9. New Orleans
10. Memphis
11. LA Clippers
12. Phoenix
13. Golden State
14. Sacramento
15. Minnesota

Miami over Orlando in Eastern Conference Finals.
LA Lakers over San Antonio Western Conference Finals.

LA Lakers over Miami in Finals.

Tackling Week 7 of the NFL (Legally of Course)

It was an interesting week in the NFL world. Instead of talking about a number of great games coming up this weekend, all of the talk was centered on helmet-to-helmet hits and the three large fines issued by the league. My stance is that the NFL needs to clearly draw a line from what is and is not a helmet to helmet shot. They also need to do this after the season is over and give the players a chance to learn and adapt to the rule. For what’s it worth, James Harrison’s and Dunta Robinson’s hits were not clearly done with malice or intent. Both looked like good football plays for the most part. Brandon Meriweather’s hit was dangerous, unnecessary and flagrant. I do not understand how the three hits could be treated equally by the league the way that they were, or how the league could implement such large fines with no precedent. In the end though, it gets back to a much larger picture.

The NFL, at least those that run the league, realizes that it is at the absolute height of its powers right now in terms of popularity and dollars. They realize that it won’t last forever, just as boxing, baseball, horse racing and others have slowly faded to where they are today. That is why the NFL continues to look for ways (such as the 18 game schedule) to expand, grow revenues and take advantage of its current popularity. The NFL does understand, however, that its gradual descent to its eventual place in our culture would speed up immensely if a tragic event occurs on their watch. Eventually, somebody is going to die on the football field from paralysis or a head shot that causes severe brain damage. The players are simply too big, too fast and the collisions are too intense. The popularity of the sport will take a big hit if and when this happens, but the fallout if the NFL were not to try and do something before to prevent this occurrence would be impossible to recover from.

Football is a violent sport, and will forever be. That does not mean it needs to be ignorantly violent. Getting hit in the head will happen, just as it does in every sport, but taking every measure to prevent these shots is absolutely imperative by the league office. The argument which is “that’s football” is ridiculous. The game is meant to be played with the hands and shoulders. Everyday there are backyard football games with no pads that feature big hits, blocking and good tackles that do not involve intentional head to head hits. College and professional football began without the use of helmets and then evolved to the use of helmets with no facemasks. Head to head contact was never intended to be part of the game. The NFL needs to step in and do their part to alleviate the game from these hits before it is too late. They also need to do it in a more professional manner in the offseason working alongside the Players’ Association.

Not to make light of the subject but speaking of taking hits to the head, that’s what it felt like last week watching my picks fall apart. Nine different games came down to the final few minutes last Sunday, at least in terms of the spread, and I ended up losing five of them and pushing two more leaving me with a 5-7-2 record for the week (40-45-5 overall). That 5-7-2 very easily could have been an 8-6 week or even better. I feel much more confident now that week five was the fluke that I thought it was and nothing more. It hurt to have all of those close losses, but those things happen and tend to even out over the course of the year (or so I keep telling myself). That means I am due for a big week, let’s get to it…

(Home teams in caps.)

Pittsburgh (-3) over MIAMI – Ben Roethlisberger was ok in his first game back from suspension. I suspect a breakout performance this week.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over ATLANTA – I think Atlanta duped us into believing they were a little better than they really are after winning a tough game in New Orleans. I think Cincinnati has us believing they are worse than they really are after blowing a home game to Tampa Bay. The truth of the matter is that both of these teams find themselves playing close games every week where luck often becomes a factor. Atlanta is slightly better, but I’m guessing this one comes down to a field goal.

BALTIMORE (-13) over Buffalo – Does Buffalo score?

San Francisco (-3) over CAROLINA – Sorry, not backing a winless team starting a rookie QB getting only a field goal. This very well may be the game Carolina gets its first win, but I think there is a better chance the 49ers are beginning to figure things out.

Washington (+3) over CHICAGO – Washington has played pretty much every game down to the wire and I think that continues this week in Chicago.

Jacksonville (+9) over KANSAS CITY – This is why picking games on Friday is tough, not to mention the line is probably nowhere near where it ends up. That is because of the uncertainty of David Garrard at quarterback for the Jaguars. If you can get the Jaguars at +9 right now though, jump on it, because the Chiefs are not nine points better than anyone no matter how improved they are.

NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Cleveland – Colt McCoy is expected to start again for the Browns and despite actually playing ok in his rookie debut the Browns were still able to manage only 10 points. Brees and company are too tough in their dome.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over St. Louis – The Rams pulled a shocker last week by upsetting the Chargers at home but they are a completely different team on the road.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Philadelphia – Philly will miss DeSean Jackson’s playmaking ability and Chris Johnson breaks another big run. The Titans win this one in a close game.

SEATTLE (-5.5) over Arizona – Max Hall, an undrafted rookie quarterback, travels to Seattle and one of the hardest places to play in the NFL. I’ll take the ‘Hawks.

Oakland (+8.5) over DENVER – Despite being 2-4 the Raiders have only been blown out once this year in the opening week. Not sure who is going to start at quarterback for them this week, but whoever it is we know the Raiders will play hard and compete. This is too many points, even in a tough place like Denver.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over New England – San Diego is 2-0 at home and 0-4 on the road both straight up and against the spread. Eventually the Chargers are going to get rolling and what better way to kick that off than by beating one of your AFC rivals.

Minnesota (+3) over GREEN BAY – I have decided that Mike McCarthy is no longer worth backing unless the situation is obvious. Plus I really like what I have seen from the Vikings the past two weeks. Brett Favre is going to win another one in Lambeau.

DALLAS (-3) over New York Giants – This is going to be the beginning of Dallas’ turnaround, at least I hope so for my preseason NFC Super Bowl pick.

College Football
Michigan St -5.5 over NORTHWESTERN
LSU +6 over AUBURN
IOWA -6 over Wisconsin
Nebraska -5.5 over OKLAHOMA STATE
Georgia +4 over KENTUCKY
Oklahoma -3 over MISSOURI

Pens Need More from Malkin

The Penguins have recovered from their ho-hum 1-3 start to win their last three games. Those three wins were highlighted by the goaltending of backup Brent Johnson, who now owns all four of the Penguins victories on the season while Marc-Andre Fleury is winless at 0-3. That, to me, is no big deal. Goaltenders will go through slumps through the course of a long season. Fleury just so happens to be going through one at the beginning of the season. He will snap out of it and return to form in what I am guessing is the very near future. Fleury has proven his worth as a Stanley Cup caliber goaltender. The Penguins can also feel comforted in the fact that Johnson has proven a reliable backup. Johnson’s play has probably allowed Dan Bylsma and his staff a chance to get some sleep at night.

Another guy not on the ice for the last three wins, or for any of the seven games so far, has been Jordan Staal. Staal, who is recovering from an infection in his foot resulting from offseason surgery, has returned to the ice and begun skating once again. Staal actually practiced with the Penguins for the first time yesterday. The timetable for his return is not known but it is now safe to assume that Staal will make it all the way back. Sometimes these infections can be trickier and more dangerous than they sound, as this one proved with the continual reoccurrence. It is good news to hear that Staal should be back in the not too distant future.

No, the Penguins early season worries are not the poor play of Fleury or the absence of Staal, it is the play of Evgeni Malkin. Malkin’s play, while good, has not reached the super-duper star level that so many of us thought he was headed for during his dominant streak back in 2007-2008. Malkin carried the Penguins during the ’07-’08 regular season when Sidney Crosby went down to an injury, earning a second place finish in the Hart Trophy voting for the NHL MVP. Malkin followed that season up with a fabulous 2008-‘09 by winning the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s leading scorer. He continued that dominant streak in the playoffs where he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoffs MVP, helping the Pens hoist the Stanly Cup for the first time since 1992. It had pretty much become fact that the Penguins’ owned two of the league’s top three players in Crosby and Malkin and that the Penguins would have a leg up on the competition for the foreseeable future with such a talented 1-2 combination at center.

While Crosby has maintained his position in the argument for the league’s top player with Alex Ovechkin, rarely do you hear Evgeni Malkin’s name mentioned in that conversation anymore. Malkin suffered through an injury-filled 2009, one that saw him miss seven games in early November to a shoulder injury and 15 games in all. Malkin’s points per game average dropped to 1.15, down from 1.38 and 1.29 in ’07-’08 and ’08-’09, respectively. Malkin also saw his plus/minus number dip from +16 and +17 the previous two years to a pedestrian -6. Those are not the figures that a player of Malkin’s stature and ability should be very proud of. After a strong first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, Malkin was nearly invisible in the second round loss to the Canadiens, posting 3 points and a -2 in the seven games. It is very possible that Malkin was just never right last year from the assortment of injuries, or that his shoulder injury hindered him more than he let on, but whatever the reason was Malkin did not look like the same player we had become accustomed to the previous two seasons.

Malkin is off to a slow start again this year, posting just six points in the team’s first seven games and recording a plus/minus of +1. Granted, the season is just getting underway and the sample size is extremely small but I am seeing some of the same sluggish play that Malkin exhibited last year. Malkin is still a good player, a very good player, and is one of the primary reasons the Penguins are a Stanley Cup contender. He has the ability to be a truly great player, however, and the Penguins need “Geno” to get back to that level. The difference between the '08-’09 Malkin and the ’09-’10 Malkin is the difference between the Penguins being a Cup contender and a Cup favorite.

Week 6 NFL Picks (and some bonus picks)

I struggled all week trying to figure out how I could win only two out of fourteen games against the spread in the NFL last week (bringing my overall record to 35-38-3). I had been coming along at a solid pace, winning around 56% of my picks, not to mention that I have been killing it in college football. I had no idea how I could lose all of my mojo on one Sunday. Then I began reading up on what I will refer to in this blog as “Black Sunday”. The Vegas sports books won money on all but three games in the NFL last week. According to Chad Millman, who writes an excellent sports wagering blog for ESPN, out of the top ten most selected games in Hilton’s Supercontest, the most decorated NFL handicapping competition in Vegas, only one was correct. Doing this research made me realize that I was not the only “expert” (and I use that term loosely right now) to struggle last week. This made me begin to feel a little better but then I began to question what happened and why did I get my proverbial thumbs chopped off.

There really is no simple answer to what happened but I tried to it simplify it none-the-less into two possible scenarios. One, much of what I thought about the NFL this season had been off a little. Or two, last week was an anomaly, let’s shake it off and get back to it. Of course the answer probably lies somewhere in between those two and the oddsmakers are certainly getting a better feel for these teams and the lines are having less and less value in them, but I feel it’s my job to find what little value there is. We did learn some things last week, which I will briefly highlight in some of the pick capsules, but for the most part I went back at it business as usual. If we see another rough week, it will become time to reevaluate. I have a good feeling that I will not need to do that, however. On to the picks…

(Home teams in caps.)

PITTSBURGH (-13.5) over Cleveland – Colt McCoy, who looked overmatched in the preseason, is going to make his first start against the league’s best defense. That is not a very good recipe for success.

Atlanta (+3) over PHILADELPHIA – Atlanta, along with my next pick, is playing as well as anyone in the NFC right now. Philly got lucky to escape San Francisco with a win last week, they won’t be so lucky again.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-10) over Detroit – New York has looked as good as any team in football the past couple of weeks. Vegas may be catching on making the G-Men a double digit favorite, but at home I still expect them to cover.

New Orleans (-4.5) over TAMPA BAY – I am torn here. We have learned that New Orleans is overvalued right now and is certainly not the team it was a year ago. That being said, I saw Charlie Batch be successful throwing the ball deep on the Bucs and I can only imagine what this New Orleans offense can do. The Bucs three wins have come over Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore and the artist formerly known as Carson Palmer. Drew Brees does not belong in that category.

HOUSTON (-4.5) over Kansas City - Houston was overvalued after their opening day win and Kansas City has been undervalued thus far but this line seems to be swinging in the other direction for these teams amid the typical overreaction. This is a perfect bounce back spot for the Texans. The Chiefs cannot take advantage of the one thing Houston does poorly (defend the pass).

San Diego (-8.5) over ST. LOUIS – I am still a believer in this San Diego team but they keep finding ways to lose. We do know one thing; this will either be a blowout or a Rams’ victory. I’m betting on the former.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Miami – I am slowly but surely losing faith in Mike McCarthy as a bettor. This is one instance where I am going to stick to my guns though. It’s helpful to know that Aaron Rodgers is expected to play and that the Dolphins secondary has not looked good recently.

Baltimore (+3) over NEW ENGLAND – Baltimore, as they proved in their playoff game last year, is a tough match-up for the Patriots. The Ravens are going to be physical with Wes Welker, physical with Tom Brady, physical with Randy Moss…oh wait, that’s another reason I’m going with Baltimore.

Seattle (+6.5) over CHICAGO – Seattle had an extra week to come up with exotic ways to pressure Cutler behind this porous Bears’ offensive line. These are two teams I am not sold on so when in doubt, take the points.

MINNESOTA (-1.5) over Dallas – Wow, when the schedules came out who would have thought a week six match-up between the Cowboys and Vikings would feature two 1-3 football teams. Dallas lost for the second time this year despite gaining over 500 yards, that’s usually a good sign something just isn’t right. I liked what I saw from Minnesota against the Jets and think they could use this game to springboard their way back into the thick of things in the NFC.

DENVER (+3) over New York Jets – If you are going to beat the Jets you have to throw the football. Well, that’s all that the Broncos can do, plus they’re at home. It’s also a tough cross-country road trip for the Jets who are coming off a Monday Night game.

Oakland (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO – Why is winless team giving a TD? What bizzaro world is this? We know that the Raiders will play hard and be competitive at the very least. This line is about four points to high.

Indianapolis (-3) over WASHINGTON – Another thing we can be certain of is a great performance from Peyton Manning when everyone is watching. The Redskins have struggled mightily to run the ball as well and that’s the only way you beat the Colts.

Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE – I have been wrong on Tennessee for three straight weeks now. Jacksonville fans, the few that there are, will be hoping its four straight but I think Chris Johnson is due for a big game and I’m taking Vince Young over David Garrard in a primetime game.

Bonus Picks

Baseball
Yankees over Rangers in Five.
Phillies over San Francisco in Six.

College Football
Pittsburgh (+1) over SYRACUSE
MICHIGAN STATE (-7) over Illinois
Arkansas (+3.5) over AUBURN
Texas (+10) over NEBRASKA
South Carolina (-5) over KENTUCKY
Ohio State (-4) over WISCONSIN

Pirates Manager Search Least of Their Worries

I received an email from the Pirates the day after the season ended with the subject “Pirates relieve Russell of managerial duties”. This may bring a couple a couple of thoughts to your mind like “Why do I receive emails from the Pirates marketing department?” or “Why are the Pirates trying to sugarcoat firing a guy that lost 299 games in three years?” or finally, “Is John Russell the most relieved man in baseball?”

To answer that first question, I used to be a Pirates partial season ticket holder buying one of their ten game packages. A buddy and I decided after we graduated college that it would be fun to do this and we had a few bucks after getting our first real jobs. Well my buddy moved away and I couldn’t GIVE away my tickets when I couldn’t go so that was that. It’s not like the Pirates tickets are the hardest seat in or town or anything. I am still on their email list, however, and get their homemade puff pieces sent to me.

This brings me to the second question you might have, or at least the very first question that I had. Why were the Pirates trying to make this sound like anything but a firing? The Pirates lost nearly 300 games in three years under Russell, including seasons of 67-95, 62-99 and this year’s topper 57-105. The Pirates, who have been stressing “accountability” since Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly took over as the management team, should have released a headline that looked something more like this “Pirates Could Not Fire Russell Fast Enough!” Instead, we email subscribers got a boring piece on how the Pirates thought they needed a change in direction, and that they value Russell’s contributions to the organization, blah, blah, blah.

Frankly, I have no idea if John Russell was a good manager or not. Sure, I didn’t agree with some of his in-game tactics but you can say that about some of the greatest managers of all time. I did like that Russell was willing to think outside of the box. I applauded his attempt to bat the pitcher eighth and his attempt at different defensive positioning. Those ideas may not have worked for this team, but at least Russell was trying something to give his team an edge. For an organization that is inferior in almost every way to its counterparts, a bit of unconventional thinking is needed. The reality though, is that players and talent win games. Russell had neither to work with. That is why the third question popped into my mind. Is anyone more relieved not to be managing then John Russell, especially in light of Coonelly and Huntington’s decision to extend him another year, thus paying Russell approximately a half million dollars not to coach the Pirates? Sign me up!

The truth of the matter is that it doesn’t matter one iota who the next manager of the Pirates is going to be. As to my knowledge, the Pirates have interviewed at least six managerial candidates for their vacant position with the apparent frontrunner being former Cleveland skipper Eric Wedge. Do these guys know what they are getting into? Here are the list of Pirates’ managers since Jim Leyland left in 1996; Gene Lamont, Lloyd McClendon, Pete Mackanin (on an interim 25 games basis), Jim Tracy and John Russell. Their combined record with the Pirates was 964-1300, a whopping .426 winning percentage. The only one of these men to get a managerial job after he left was Jim Tracy, and he was very fortunate to get his when serving as bench coach for the Colorado Rockies they fired their manager and he took over, luckily falling into one of the more talented rosters in the National League.

The future looks no brighter for the next Pirates’ manager either. The immediate future of the Pirates is built around Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. McCutchen is the only sure thing of the group but I think I saw enough of Alvarez to give him the benefit of the doubt as well. Walker was a career .273 hitters in the minors, does anyone think he can really be a .296 hitter in the majors? I think his .340 BABIP may have played a part in Walker’s luck. Jose Tabata has shown no inclination of hitting with power despite being the Pirates everyday left fielder of the future. The four of them were also major contributors to the Pirates’ league worst defense. Even allowing that Walker and Tabata can become solid regulars, McCutchen and Alvarez reach their potential, and the Pirates have a decent catching platoon between Snyder and Doumit, the Pirates are still three (or 2.5 if they decide Garrett Jones can be a decent platoon at 1B or RF) players away from having a good major league line-up. And that is the good news for the next Pirates’ manager!

The bad news is that if the Pirates fail to sign any prominent free agent starters, and that’s a pretty good bet, your 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation to begin the season will most likely consist of Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald, Paul Maholm, Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton. Their respective career ERAs are 4.40, 3.84, 4.48, 6.66 and 5.98. Not exactly the Phillies current H2O staff. The only near-term help on the farm are prospects Bryan Morris and Rudy Owens, both far from a sure thing. It’s true that the Pirates have stockpiled some great arms in the lower minors, but by the time they reach the big leagues the new manager very well could be looking for his next job.

That, people, is the state of your Pittsburgh Pirates. A once proud organization has fallen to the point where it really doesn’t matter who they hire to manage their ballclub. I do hope for the next manager’s sake that he is given at least a four or five year contract so that he can grow with the Pirates’ young talent on his terms. I also hope that he gets a guarantee from the Pirates’ management team that they will significantly increase payroll in the next few years. Lastly, I hope that the Pirates do the right thing and hire a guy proven to be a great developer of young talent. But who am I kidding, does it really matter who the Pirates hire for their next manager? I have a sad feeling that I will be receiving another email in two or three years headlined, “Pirates relieve general manager and coach of duties.”

What Happened!?! And a College Football Smorgasbord

I can’t begin to explain how in the world I went 2-12 in my NFL picks last week. Those that make similar picks or like to make a friendly wager here and there, know that going 2-12 is just as hard as going 12-2. The simple truth of the matter is that I pride myself on knowing a little something about football and last week I flat-out sucked. I did change my tune to like the Giants and Bears by the time the games rolled around on Sunday but by then it was too late, my picks had been posted and I was on my way to the worst week I have ever had in my 10 or so years of picking NFL spreads.

The sad part, at least to me or anyone who actually used my picks this week, is that I actually had a phenomenal week outside of the NFL. On Saturday, I went 11-3 against the spread in college football and I have been nailing the baseball games left and right. In a pick’em pool that I participate we pick the winner against the spread in every NFL game and select college games every week to make it an even 20 games. In the select college games up to this point, I am 20-4, an absolutely ridiculous 83% winning clip (and yes, I have proof!). It’s too bad that I have not been posting those games and instead posted what was a disastrous NFL week. So for the rest of the year, not only will I post my NFL picks (and I promise to absolutely rebound in a big way), I will post my picks in a few select college games as well.

Speaking of college football, it has been a couple of weeks since we had a college football smorgasbord! Since I last wrote on the amateurs, we have seen Alabama get knocked off by the Old Ball Coach while the rest of the BCS Championship contenders have stayed unbeaten and on track for a championship run. Here we go…

* Ohio State was my preseason pick to win the national title and Terrelle Pryor was my preseason pick to win the Heisman. I am feeling pretty good about those picks right now. The Buckeyes still have the meat of their schedule ahead of them with a trip to Wisconsin this week and a trip to Iowa in late November but if the Buckeyes take care of their business, they will be playing for the title in Glendale come January 10th.

* As for the Heisman race, if I had a ballot today Pryor would be number one on my list followed in order by LaMichael James, Denard Robinson, Kellen Moore and Cam Newton. Pryor is putting up passing numbers comparable to Moore and still running the football effectively against good competition. As Boise’s competition weakens and Michigan and Auburn lose a few more games, I could see this becoming a very interesting two man race between Pryor and James.

* Two guys to keep an eye on if their teams remain undefeated are Taylor Martinez and DeMarco Murray in the Big 12. Heisman voters love players from top-ranked teams, especially if they can produce big performances in primetime games. The last player to win the Heisman whose team wasn’t a prominent figure in the national title race was Ron Dayne back in 1999, and that was more of a career achievement award.

* If you enjoy offense you have to love watching Oregon’s fast paced attack. I think Mike McCarthy, Green Bay’s coach, should watch the Ducks and realize that the more plays you give your best players, the better chance for success. I do wonder, however, about the size up front for Chip Kelly’s group. In last year’s Rose Bowl Ohio State dominated Oregon at the line of scrimmage, and I’m not so sure that wouldn’t be the case again this year. Heck, we saw Boise dominate the Ducks up front in last year’s opener and they are often criticized themselves for being “too small”. With more time to prepare for Kelly’s spread offense and fast tempo in a bowl game, this could become THE question mark for Oregon.

* If Boise State and TCU (or Utah for that matter) both go undefeated it will be interesting to see how the BCS formula shakes out. TCU and Utah, especially if both are undefeated when they play each other, will have the clear strength of schedule edge and thus have the advantage in the computers. Boise, on the other hand, has had the human voters support over the other non-BCS participants for some time now. I’m guessing the poll support will be enough to keep Boise just ahead of TCU, especially if Oregon St. and Virginia Tech continue to play well. That TCU-Utah game will be played November 6th in Salt Lake City by the way, and could have major national championship implications.

* LSU, as any college football fan has seen or heard, continues to defy logic by winning games despite some of the most mismanaged situations I can remember. Give Les Miles credit though, he has these guys believing that they can and will win every game. LSU certainly has the talent and no doubt will be fun to watch in the following weeks with games left at Auburn, vs. Alabama and at Arkansas.

* In what could be considered a rather boring week of college football match-ups, only two games feature both teams ranked in this week’s AP Top 25. I am very much looking forward to the Arkansas at Auburn match-up to find out just how for real this Auburn team is. Cam Newton has been incredible running Gus Malzahn’s spread option offense but the Tigers have been very vulnerable on defense and Arkansas features Ryan Mallett and a lethal passing attack.

* Pitt goes on the road this week to Syracuse where they are one point underdogs. Talk about a reality check, the Panthers are underdogs to a team that has won only 14 games total over the past five seasons, and one could make the argument that it is rightfully so. I liked what I saw in the second half of the Notre Dame game and think this Pitt team, if it can put everything together, has the talent to turn this season around. A loss this week, however, and it would be time to start questioning Dave Wannstedt’s future.

* Penn State should have their best week of the season to date, a bye week. I got some grief before the season started for ranking Joe Paterno and company 25th in my fictional ballot, and saying that they probably don’t deserve to be that high. It is certainly true that the Nittany Lions have struggled, and bowl eligibility is probably the goal at this point, but I see a ton of promise in true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden. Penn State fans should watch this kid with some excitement looking forward to the next three years.

Week 5 NFL Picks

If you want to read my division by division breakdown of the NFL at the quarter mark, click here. Now let’s move on to the picks for Week 5. It was a dog day afternoon last Sunday as underdogs were 9-3 against the spread (including six straight up wins) heading into Sunday Night Football. The Giants and Patriots quickly fixed that, easily winning and covering in the prime time spots. Last week I told you that I thought I was having a great week, only to end up 8-8. This week was a little bit of the opposite as I thought I was having a lousy week only to look up and find myself 6-6 heading into the night games. I promptly swept the Giants-Bears, Patriots-Dolphins games, which I probably don’t need to remind you that I promised more work on, to finish the week 8-6 bringing my overall record to 33-26-3. Time for the picks:

(Home teams in caps.)

BUFFALO (+1) over Jacksonville – Jacksonville is overrated coming off of its win against Indianapolis and the Bills have to win a couple of games this year right? Right?

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Kansas City – The Colts will get up early and force Matt Cassel to play catch-up.

CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Tampa Bay – This was one of the harder games of the week, with Tampa fresh off its bye week, but I see Cincy’s secondary coming up with a few plays on Josh Freeman.

Atlanta (-3) over CLEVELAND – Atlanta = good. Cleveland = not good.

Green Bay (-2.5) over WASHINGTON – I would have actually liked Green Bay more had Clinton Portis been playing. That is not saying too much for Portis.

St. Louis (+3) over DETROIT – Two bad teams; give me the points in what is virtually a coin-flip game.

Denver (+7) over BALTIMORE – Kyle Orton can have some success against this Baltimore secondary and keep this one close.

CAROLINA (-1) over Chicago – Let’s just say I don’t have too much confidence in Todd Collins behind this Bears’ offensive line.

HOUSTON (-3) over New York Giants – Competing with the Bengals game for hardest of the week. I’m guessing Andre Johnson plays this week.

New Orleans (-7) over ARIZONA – Saints bust out big time luring everyone into thinking that they are back to last year’s standards.

San Diego (-6) over OAKLAND – San Diego has the number one offense and number two defense in the NFL. Oakland does not.

DALLAS (-7) over Tennessee – The Cowboys have won the last three under Wade Phillips after a bye week, let’s make it four.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Philadelphia – The 49ers realize that they can still win the NFC West but it has to start this week.

Minnesota (+4) over NEW YORK JETS – Randy Moss has a touchdown and the Vikes are back! Besides, the Jets won’t be able to run on the Vikings defense.

NFL Divisional Breakdown

We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season, well for most teams anyway, and the division races are looking a little clearer in terms of contenders and pretenders. The two hardest divisions to assess at this time are the jumbled NFC East and NFC West. A big surprise to me is the fact that no team in the NFC East is above .500 at this point. I thought this was one of the strongest divisions in the NFL heading into the season. In what is not a surprise, the NFC West also has no team above .500 and the preseason favorite is yet to win a game. Let’s breakdown the NFL division by division at the quarter mark, and give odds on each team’s ability to win the division or earn a wild card. I will be back a little later today with an abbreviated picks post (they're up, click here). I’m feeling good after sweeping the prime time games like I said I would!

AFC East

New York Jets (3-1) – If there was one team happy to see Randy Moss leave New England it had to be the Jets who saw their division title hopes increase greatly. (Though I think they would have preferred it wait a week since they see the Vikings on Monday Night this week.) The Jets are loaded, no doubt about that, and are expecting the return of Darrelle Revis (injury) and Santonio Holmes (suspension) this week. The question is whether we see the Sanchez of the last three weeks when the Jets look like they can beat anyone, or the Sanchez from week one when they couldn’t score on the little sisters of the poor. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.

New England Patriots (3-1) – First thing that came to mind upon learning the Randy Moss news is ‘I wonder what Tom Brady is thinking.’ No doubt that the Patriots are loaded for the future with young talent and draft picks galore, but trading Moss cannot have made an ultra-competitive guy like Tom Brady happy. The Patriots went from legitimate Super Bowl contender to playoff hopeful. I know Belichick is a genius and all, but you can’t win football games every week with two special teams TDs and one INT TD. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 55%.

Miami Dolphins (2-2) – Two straight home divisional losses can certainly put a dent in your division and playoff hopes. The Dolphins have major questions in the secondary and will need Chad Henne to play much better than he did against the Pats to get back into the thick of things. Division odds: 5%. Playoffs: 20%.

Buffalo Bills (0-4) – Bills are hands down the worst team in the NFL and are currently being outscored 125-61 on the season. The good news is that I was happy to see Marshawn Lynch traded as I have Fred Jackson on two of my fantasy teams! Then again, maybe it’s not so good news to have any Bills on your fantasy teams. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) – The Ravens squeaked out a big game in Pittsburgh last week in which a loss would have put them in a major hole to the Steelers. The Ravens are a good, disciplined football team that should only get better with the return of Ed Reed on defense and a deep play threat on offense in Donte Stallworth. Does the comeback win over the Steelers propel Flacco to the elite level? I still have my doubts, but the Ravens look like a playoff team. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 65%.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) – The Steelers not only survived their franchise quarterback’s four game suspension, they put themselves in great position for another Super Bowl run. The defense looks like the league’s best unit and the offense will become two-dimensional with Roethlisberger’s return. If the Steelers can stay healthy, they are the team to beat in the AFC. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) – You know the old saying that a team is better than its individual parts, well the Bungals are the opposite of that. With good individual talent spread up and down the roster, Cincinnati has not been able to put it all together. A lot of that has to do with the play of Carson Palmer, who has dropped off a long way from just a few short years ago. I won’t rule out a playoff berth for these guys in case they can put it all together, but with their schedule it better happen in a hurry. Division odds: 5%. Playoffs: 20%.

Cleveland Browns (1-3) – Eric Mangini has the Browns playing hard and they will not be an easy victory for anyone. I think new GM Mike Holmgren will eventually get them on the right path personnel wise, but priority number one has to be a quarterback. It is impossible to win consistently in this league without a QB. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.

AFC South

Houston Texans (3-1) – This really could be the coming of age year for this Texans squad. After a week one victory over their once unbeatable rival, Houston rallied from 17 down to win on the road in Washington and in week four went to Oakland without their best player in Andre Johnson and left tackle Duane Brown and still found a way to win. Houston now gets back reining Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing and will eventually get back Johnson and Brown. It should be an interesting battle between the non divisional winners of the Colts/Texans, Ravens/Steelers and Jets/Patriots for those final two wildcard spots. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 70%.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) – Bob Sanders is hurt once again and the Colts ability to stop the run has pretty much dissolved. It is extremely important for Peyton Manning to get his team ahead and let this defense go after the quarterback and use their speed to do what they do best. The Colts will be fine, though, and Peyton is probably once again the frontrunner for MVP. Division odds: 50%. Playoffs: 75%.

Tennessee Titans (2-2) – Tennessee has been a little Jekyll and Hyde this year with impressive victories over the Raiders and Giants and disappointing losses to the Steelers and Broncos. Teams will continue to load up on the run against Chris Johnson (averaging only 3.8 yards per carry) and forcing Vince Young to beat them with his arm. Young continues to improve, and Jeff Fisher always has his team competing at a high level, but I think we continue to see inconsistency with this football team as Young continues to develop. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 30%.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) – As impressive as the Jaguars victory over the Colts last week was this is still not a good football team. Jacksonville was outscored 66-16 in their two losses thus far, one of those at home, and has given up 111 points on the season, second only to Buffalo in the AFC. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 5%.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) – The surprise team at the quarter mark of the season and the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are well coached under coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel and have some playmakers on both sides of the ball. Matt Cassel and his girly-arm are not the answer at quarterback, however. The Chiefs will get a reality check this week as they travel to Indianapolis, but don’t be surprised if they hang around the playoff picture longer than most would expect. Division odds: 15%. Playoffs: 15%.

San Diego Chargers (2-2) – The Chargers have the NFL’s number one offense and number two defense and are a few special team gaffes on the road away from being undefeated. Philip Rivers is one of the truly elite players in this league and I fully expect the Chargers to win the West once again and become a strong Super Bowl contender. Division odds: 65%. Playoffs: 65%.

Denver Broncos (2-2) – You may have noticed in my picks column the past couple of weeks how I have touted the Broncos as a strong home and terrible road team. Well the Broncos, after losing at home to the Colts (understandable), went on the road and defeated a pretty decent Titans team on the arm of the NFL’s leading passer, Kyle Orton. I doubt that Orton can continue playing THIS WELL, but he has done enough to make me believe that the Broncos will not go away easily this year. Division odds: 19%. Playoffs: 19%.

Oakland Raiders (1-3) – Oakland probably should be 2-2 and outside of the opener in Tennessee the Raiders have played relatively well behind quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. I expect the Raiders to continue to compete hard but the overall lack of talent makes the playoffs a very long shot this year. Division odds: 1%. Playoffs: 1%.

NFC East

Washington Redskins (2-2) – The NFC East is truly the one division, the one division that matters anyway, up for grabs. Any of the four teams could realistically win this thing and the one thing that Washington has going for it is McNabb and Shanahan have certainly done it before. Still, this has the feel of an 8-8 or 9-7 team, maybe that’s enough, but I doubt it. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 30%.

New York Giants (2-2) – The Giants are the NFC version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, but in a little different sense that their ups and downs have come within each game. The key for the Giants will be the play of their offensive and defensive lines. The offensive line needs solid play to allow the Giants’ talented skill guys do their thing and the defensive line needs dominating performances like the one against the Bears to protect the weaknesses behind them. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 40%.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) – There has been no team more interesting than the Eagles over the first four weeks, that’s for sure. Now back at square one with a 2-2 record and Kevin Kolb behind center, I think it’s safe to say that we still really don’t know anything about this team. Trying to put a number on their playoff chances is virtually impossible, especially since we have no idea when Vick will return. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 30%.

Dallas Cowboys (1-2) – The Cowboys are lucky in the sense that no team has established themselves in the division allowing the Cowboys off the hook for their sloppy start. Now after a solid road win at Houston and a bye week to regroup, I still think Dallas is the class of the NFC East. If they’re not, I’m guessing it is the end of Wade Phillips in Dallas. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 60%.

NFC North

Chicago Bears (3-1) – While I am still not a believer in this Bears team, it is hard to knock their quality wins at Dallas and over Green Bay. I think the Bears 3-0 start was a bit of mirage, however, as Cutler got lucky with some balls that should have been picked off and the offensive line hadn’t been fully exposed yet. I think the Giants game is more of a reflection of what we will see going forward. The Bears have given themselves a chance with their strong start but must get Cutler back in the very near term. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 25%.

Green Bay Packers (3-1) – The Packers are probably the favorite in the NFC right now but that is probably more of a byproduct of the rest of the league than the Packers play. Green Bay has been sloppy, poorly coached, and undisciplined through four weeks but has overcome those mistakes with their talent. Mike McCarthy needs to speed up their play on offense and give Aaron Rodgers as many opportunities as possible. Division odds: 60%. Playoffs: 90%.

Minnesota Vikings (1-2) – Talk about making a splash during your bye week! The trade for Randy Moss gives Brett Favre and the Minnesota offense the deep threat they were looking for and should open things up underneath for Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe and the running game. The defense is very stout once again, and I would be surprised if Minnesota doesn’t have something to say about the NFC Super Bowl representative before it’s all said and done. Division odds: 30%. Playoffs: 60%.

Detroit Lions (0-4) – The Lions are the best winless team in the league and I kind of feel sorry for them right now. They obviously should have won the Bears game on the Calvin Johnson catch ruling, and I’m guessing they would have won another game by now with a healthy Matthew Stafford. The defense, though still bad, is improving and the offense looks promising with young playmakers such as Johnson and Jahvid Best. There is hope for the future in Detroit! 0%. Playoffs: 0%.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) – The NFC South will be a two horse race between Atlanta and New Orleans (sorry Bucs’ fans, I have to discount your nice start) and the leg up has to go to Atlanta after winning in New Orleans. The Falcons are a good, well-rounded team that can run the football, play good defense and has an explosive playmaker in Roddy White on the outside. How good the Falcons can be is probably going to be determined on how good Matt Ryan can become. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.

New Orleans Saints (3-1) – It hasn’t been what people have come to expect from the Saints and their high-powered offense but Sean Payton has his club right where it needs to be in its attempt to defend its Super Bowl. Regression was expected as the Saints defense could not possibly force turnovers the way they did next year, but with Drew Brees and the Saints playmakers this remains a very dangerous football team. Division odds: 45%. Playoffs: 80%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) – On the positive, the Bucs got off to a nice 2-0 start and saw some good things from their young franchise QB, Josh Freeman. On the other hand, those two wins were over Cleveland and Carolina and the Bucs looked severely overmatched against the Steelers. Steps are being taken in the right direction, but this team is still ways away from true contention. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 5%.

Carolina Panthers (0-4) – Carolina’s offense has been downright offensive. The Panthers are averaging less than 12 points per game, the lowest n the NFL, and have twice as many turnovers as touchdowns. Something tells me John Fox will be looking for a job next season. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) – Seriously, this has to be the worst division since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The Arizona Cardinals are technically the division leader at this point despite announcing that an undrafted, rookie free agent is now their starter. If you were thinking well maybe their defense is winning games, think again. The Cardinals have given up 118 points, second only to Buffalo. All of that lousiness and I still give them a one in four shot of making the playoffs. Sheesh! Division odds: 25%. Playoffs: 25%.

St. Louis Rams (2-2) – I am pulling for the Rams to make the playoffs. I have always loved the way Steven Jackson plays the game and Sam Bradford has the look of the League’s next great QB. Still, it’s hard to believe a team can go from winning six games over the last three years to winning the division. Ladies and gentlemen, your NFC West! Division odds: 30%. Playoffs: 30%.

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) – The Seahawks are probably the legitimate favorite at this point with a win over the 49ers, the most experienced QB in Matt Hasselbeck, and a great homefield advantage. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Pete Carroll but he could very well find himself hosting a playoff game. I can promise you one thing; a NFC wildcard will not come from this division. Division odds: 35%. Playoffs: 35%.

San Francisco 49ers (0-4) – I was tempted to make the 49ers the favorite despite their 0-4 record which is certainly saying something. While the 49ers do own the division’s most talented roster, there are bigger issues going on with this football team and the 0-4 record is an almost impossible hole to dig yourself out of. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 10%.

Stanley Cup or Bust for Penguins

The Penguins open the new Consol Energy Center tonight for the start of their 2010-2011 season. The game will be the Penguins 167th straight sellout going back over three years ago to the soon to be demolished Mellon Arena. It’s no surprise that the team has attracted such great crowds with the players they have assembled and the winning they have done since Sidney Crosby’s arrival. The same reason that the team has done so well at the gates, however, is the reason I approach the regular season with a bit of a yawn.

We all know that the Penguins are going to make the playoffs, making these next 82 games pretty much a formality. It is not until then that the success of the Penguins’ season will be judged. When you have the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, Brooks Orpik, Marc Andre-Fleury and more, anything less than another Stanley Cup championship has to be considered a disappointment.

Don’t get me wrong, I am excited for the start of the Penguins’ season. The NHL regular season, unlike that of the NBA (whose season is also pretty meaningless for the top teams), is still played with a ton of intensity and provides a good bit of entertainment. Games like tonight’s match-up against a heated rival such as the Flyers have a playoff-like feel. But no matter how great the Penguins play over the next several months, it won’t matter until the Stanley Cup playoffs begin.

There are a few things I will be keeping an eye on in the early part of the season. I want to see how the new additions fit in, especially Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek on the blue line. I want to see how the power play does with the departure of Segei Gonchar and how Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski and Malkin do running the point in his place. I am very interested to see how the new third line of Max Talbot, Matt Cooke and Arron Asham perform. I will be watching to see how Staal looks when he makes his way back on the ice, particularly if he is fully recovered from the infection resulting from his offseason foot surgery and more importantly how he does playing on the second line, presumably with Malkin. Lastly, I will be watching how Coach Dan Bylsma mixes and matches his lines to see what combinations give the Penguins their best chance for postseason success.

Really, though, I will be tuning in hoping that the Pens manage to stay healthy. After all, health is the only real reason I can see this team not making another run at the Cup. Anything less than that will be a disappointment.

MLB Playoff Preview

In an occurrence that would shock no one, the American League playoffs look a whole lot more appealing than the National League. Quite frankly, only the Philadelphia Phillies stack up talent-wise with the four AL representatives, but that is what makes October baseball so riveting. One hot streak, one injury, even one bad bounce can change the outcome of a short series. With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at each of the divisional round match-ups and who I see moving forward. As for my World Series prediction: at this point I have to stick with my preseason prediction of the Phillies over the Yankees for the title, with Roy Halladay and his career 16-5 record and 2.90 ERA vs. the Bronx Bombers as the difference maker.

National League

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
I was disappointed to see the Reds struggle a bit down the stretch and ultimately get passed by the NL West winning Giants. I was hoping to see a Phillies-Reds match-up in the NLCS when the Reds’ deep rotation and strong line-up would match up better with the Phillies. That is not the case, however, and Philadelphia has a major advantage in the shorter five game series with the ability to throw Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt twice on regular rest. The Reds do sport the NL’s top offense and will counter with two talented, but young and inexperienced starters of their own in Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, along with veteran Bronson Arroyo in between. In the end, however, a healthy Phillies line-up and the trio of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels will be a little too much for the Redlegs. Phillies in four.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is the ultimate example of how pitching wins. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and the rest of the Giants staff have been amazing during the second half of the season, erasing a 7.5 game lead and 4th place standing in their own division on July 4th. The Braves, meanwhile, were able to hang onto the wild card and delay Bobby Cox’ retirement for another much deserved playoff appearance. As good as the Giants’ pitching has been down the stretch is as bad as the Braves’ banged up line-up has been. The Braves managed only 3.5 runs per game over their final thirty games and now face a pitching staff that has been lights out. I can’t see a way that the Braves find a way to score enough runs without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado in the line-up. Giants in four.

American League

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Now we move over to the big boy league. Look at the star power in this one: Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Vlad Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, David Price and the list could go on and on. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like the back part of the Rays’ rotation with James Shields, Matt Garza, and Wade Davis just slightly better than that of the Rangers with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter. If the series happens to reach a fifth game, the edge still lies with Tampa who will have home field advantage and have hit Rangers’ ace Cliff Lee relatively well this year to the tune of 12 earned runs in 23 plus innings. David Price would also get two starts at home where he has a sub-2 ERA. Rays in five.

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
If I hadn’t picked the Yankees before the season to go to the World Series I would be tempted to pick the Twins in an upset as they have played the best ball in the Majors since the All-Star break and sport the League’s best home record at 53-28. The absence of Justin Morneau, however, shortens the Twins line-up and forces Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jim Thome to really provide the offense behind Joe Mauer. The Yanks’ have proven big game pitchers in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettite, both of whom are scheduled to go two games if the series should go the distance. The Yankees better make sure that is not the case as the edge would shift to the Twins with home-field advantage in game five and a well rested Liriano taking the mound (3.11 home ERA). I think the Yankees bats will be too much for the Twins to handle, however, especially for the back end of the Twins’ rotation and this one doesn’t reach that game five. Yankees in four.

Best Month of the Year (And MLB Awards)

Today is the first Monday of October. With all due apologies to March Madness, October marks the beginning of best month on the sports calendar. Baseball has moved on to the postseason, the NFL is in full gear, conference play is beginning in college football, the NHL kicks off this week, the NBA isn’t too far behind and we even got the added bonus of a tremendous Ryder Cup which wrapped up this morning. All of our country’s most attractive sports are or will be playing meaningful games this time of the year. It’s enough to make the die-hard sports fan go crazy, or for the sports-bloggers out there a time for your typing fingers to get sore. We’ll kick off an action-filled week by handing out some awards in Major League Baseball before transitioning ahead to a look at the postseason tomorrow.

(Be sure to check back often this week as I plan to have a ton of content up on the blog. In addition to the baseball posts, I plan on including a Penguins preview, college football smorgasbord, Pirates recap/look forward and of course my weekly NFL picks and column. Thank goodness the Steelers have a bye this week!)

Major League Baseball wrapped up its regular season yesterday with the National League West and wild card still to be decided. If you are like most of the country and tune out baseball once football season starts, at least until the playoffs begin, than I can’t blame you. After about 130-plus games, even the most hard-core baseball junkies are ready for the postseason and the intense pressures of October to start.

This year did come with a little drama in the final few weeks but if you are from cities outside of San Francisco, San Diego, Denver or Atlanta you were probably more worried about your fantasy football teams for the last month or so than the baseball season. Fear not, however, as I give you my regular season awards and postseason preview over the next two days which should get you caught up just in time for the playoffs to begin on Wednesday.

AL MVP
Josh Hamilton (Texas Rangers) – This one would have been as clear-cut as it gets if Hamilton hadn’t missed 30 games this year, but the production he provided in the games he played for the AL West winning Rangers was still enough in my book. Hamilton won the AL batting crown with .359 average, hit 32 HRs drove in 100 runs and scored 95. “The Natural”, as a friend and I dubbed him a few years back, also led the AL in OPS at 1.043 and plays a decent outfield, including 40 games in center. Honorable Mention: Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano.

NL MVP
Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds) – The NL MVP was a virtual coin flip between Votto and Albert Pujols, with the easy tie-breaker going to Votto whose Reds beat out Pujols’ Cardinals for the Central Division. Votto’s line of .324/.424./.600 and 37/113/106 look almost identical to Albert’s .312/.414/.596 and 42/118/115, especially considering the extra few days Votto took off down the stretch getting rest for the postseason. Honorable Mention: Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki.

AL Cy Young
Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners) – For the out of touch baseball purists out there, save me the argument that King Felix shouldn’t win because he only won 13 games. Hernandez led the AL in innings, ERA, was 2nd in strikeouts and was quite clearly the best pitcher in a stacked class of American League pitchers. In Hernandez’ 12 losses, the Mariners scored a combined 14 runs. He may have won 25 games pitching for the Yankees or Rays. Honorable Mention: Cliff Lee, David Price, CC Sabathia, Francisco Liriano.

NL Cy Young
Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies) – To me, both leagues had pretty easy choices for their respective Cy Young Awards. Halladay was everything the Phillies were hoping for when trading for him this offseason and maybe even then some. Halladay led the NL in wins, innings pitched, complete games, K/BB ratio, and was 2nd in strikeouts and 3rd in ERA. He did all of this in Philadelphia’s hitter friendly park and the NL’s toughest division. There really are not words to describe how darn good Halladay performed this year. Honorable Mention: Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum.

AL Rookie of the Year
Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers) – I struggled mightily with this one trying to compare Austin Jackson’s bulk stats against Feliz’ limited role as the Rangers’ closer. Jackson played every day, amassing nearly 670 plate appearances and producing a solid, if not spectacular line of .293/.345/.400. In the end, however, I decided to go with Feliz’ dominance, especially adding in the factor that Feliz may become a great pitcher going forward where Jackson is likely to stay a similar player, or even regress. Honorable Mention: Jackson, Brian Matusz.

NL Rookie of the Year
Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves) – It is a shame that we cannot just give away two National League awards and take away the AL ROY. Heyward and Buster Posey of the Giants are both more than deserving of the award, as are about five or six other qualified candidates. I gave the slight edge to Heyward, however, as he played just a bit more than Posey while finishing with very similar production. Honorable Mention: Posey, Starlin Castro, Jaime Garcia, Mike Stanton.

Week 4 NFL Picks

Gambling is a funny thing. Last week I went a lousy 8-8 against the spread, bringing my yearly total to 25-20-3, not bad, but not where I want it to be. The funny part is how I thought I had a great week. All of the games that I felt most strongly about (Steelers, Bengals, Eagles and Colts) were winners. I loved Minnesota, Baltimore and New England in a three team teaser (if gambling were legal of course). I thought Dallas and Atlanta were great value plays and I thought to stay clear of the Giants and Redskins for gambling purposes. Then I started going through my picks and realized that I was only 8-8 overall against the spread. This happens some weeks. Who would have thought the Patriots would give up 30 points to the Bills, or Eli Manning would decide to attempt a pass in the end zone left-handed, or that Seattle is a completely different team at home. Oh wait, I knew that last one…why did I still take the Chargers, a perennial terrible September team!

Those last few games were understandable, however, and I was still happy to head into the prime time games at 8-6. Then I had to watch as the Dolphins and Packers outplayed their opponents only to lose late in the fourth quarter. I take it especially hard losing the Sunday and Monday night games. After all, these are the games that everyone is playing to either make up for a bad weekend or to turn a good weekend into a great one. Losing both last week left a very sour taste in my mouth. Ok, I hear you, enough about last week. Let’s get to this week’s picks, in which I promise you some extra hard work on the Sunday and Monday night contests.

(Home teams in caps)

GREEN BAY (-14.5) over Detroit – I have a suggestion for Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy; SPEED UP PLAY ON OFFENSE! You are blessed with one of the top QBs in the league, why in the world do you insist on using the entire play-clock, eating up eight minute drives and giving your offense as few snaps as possible. McCarthy needs to take a cue from Indianapolis and speed things up on offense. The more plays his team runs on offense, the better. Second piece of advice: This is the NFL, kickers do not miss field goals inside of 30 yards. McCarthy’s decision, or non-decision, to not allow Chicago to score a touchdown last week is inexcusable. (Chicago attempting to score was just as inexcusable.) Luckily for Green Bay, it shouldn’t come to that this week.

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver – I hate laying this many points to Kyle Orton, who is playing very well right now. Never thought I would be saying that previous sentence. I do think Tennessee wins, however, and that the margin of victory has a better chance of being 7 or 10 points than it does 6 points or less.

Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND – Cleveland has actually played relatively well this season, it just hasn’t translated to wins. The Browns have lost their three games by a combined 12 points. I think this trend continues this week as the Bengals find a way to win a tough, hard-fought road contest behind a break out performance from Mr. Ochocinco.

Carolina (+13.5) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans looks to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. Sean Payton’s creative offense took a big hit with the injury to Reggie Bush and now Pierre Thomas is banged up as well. I think Carolina finally gets its running game going, at least enough to hang around in this one.

San Francisco (+7) over ATLANTA – This pick is based solely on the fact that I think the 49ers are going to be this year’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team. One week they will show up and play an inspired performance against a good team. The following week they will lay an egg against an inferior opponent. That’s what happens when you have a lunatic like Mike Singletary as the coach. Scenario one is up this week.

PITTSBURGH (-1.5) over Baltimore – Charlie Batch is in for a different animal this week as I expect the Ravens to blitz the slow-footed veteran all day long. The key for the Steelers is to run the football and hit on a few big plays against that blitz. Defensively, the Steelers should sit back and play zone as Joe Flacco has seemed to struggle reading defenses but has used his arm to come up with big plays when blitzed. This is probably a toss-up, but I like the way the Steelers are playing on defense just a bit more than their rivals.

Seattle (-1) over ST. LOUIS – Who would have thought that the Seahawks and Rams would be battling for first place at any point this season? Well they are, and I still doubt that many fans outside of St. Louis or Seattle will want to tune in.

New York Jets (-5.5) over BUFFALO – Mark Sanchez has looked a great deal more comfortable in the pocket the last two weeks than he did in week one. The Bills rank near the bottom of the league with only four sacks on the season. When the Jets have an advantage with their passing game, they can be awfully good as evidenced by their last two victories.

Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – Peyton Manning has thrown for nearly 338 yards per game and has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year. Is it possible that this guy continues to get better?

Washington (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA – All of the talk surrounding this game will be centered on Donovan McNabb returning to Philadelphia and the play of Michael Vick. The outcome of this game, however, will be decided by the Redskins defense, a unit that ranks last in the NFL in yards against. If the ‘Skins can do enough to slow down Vick and company, I think McNabb can do enough to pull off the upset, once again disappointing the Philadelphia fans.

Houston (-3) over OAKLAND – There is always at least one line that I do not understand each week and here is this week’s winner. Andre Johnson’s health is certainly a factor, but I will still take my chances laying three with Houston’s offense against an inferior Raiders squad.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Arizona – Well September is over and that means the Chargers can actually start playing football once again. Norv Turner should also follow my advice to Green Bay and speed up his offense. When you have one of the league’s best quarterbacks, your goal should be to get him as many plays as possible.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Chicago – What was lost in the Giants poor performance last week is that the offense was able to move the football up and down the field against a good Titans’ defense. Turnovers, penalties, and missed field goals led to the lopsided loss. The Giants are ninth in the NFL in passing yards despite a rough performance against Indianapolis in week two. The Bears, meanwhile, are ranked 28th against the pass and are coming off an emotional win and are on a short week. The Giants should bounce back nicely in this one.

New England (-1) over MIAMI – Miami’s secondary struggled mightily last week against Mark Sanchez, Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards. Imagine how they will fare against Brady, Moss and Welker. These two teams are actually pretty evenly matched, and I do expect a strong performance from Chad Henne and the Dolphins offense against the suspect Patriots secondary. In a shootout though, I’m going with Tom Brady and the Pats’ WRs over Henne and the Dolphins.