I was on vacation last week in Myrtle Beach, SC, a popular relaxation destination for many Pittsburghers, where the excitement over the Buccos was everywhere. There are many years when my family takes the voyage down to Myrtle Beach only it usually falls in early June where by then the Pirates have normally been eliminated from contention already. Being there in July, with the Pirates claiming a share of first place, only made it sweeter to see the excitement and hope for Pittsburgh Pirates fans for the first time in what seems like eternity.
With this excitement both in Pittsburgh and from Pirates fans around the country in mind, I decided to take an extended lunch yesterday to check out your first place Buccos in action against the Cincinnati Reds. Besides the general importance of the game and the Pirates looking to complete a sweep, it was an opportunity to see a great pitching match-up in Jeff Karstens, with his 2nd best NL ERA, going up against Johnny Cueto and his would be NL best ERA had he pitched enough innings.
I came away from the game with two thoughts, both already somewhat swirling around in my head but only confirmed further by being in attendance. First, the excitement and enthusiasm for these Buccos is real and hardcore. You got the sense of this from watching on TV during the Boston and Philadelphia series, and even the Cubs and Astros series before the break, but to see a crowd of 25,000+ on a weekday afternoon in full support of these Buccos was fantastic. I have been to many of these early afternoon games in the past when you could count the number of fans in the lower levels of the stadium.
Secondly, the Pirates desperately need Pedro Alvarez back in the line-up. I have no idea why he is still in AAA, we know that the guy can hit minor league pitching, it’s time to bring him back up to the majors, plug him in at third base and in the clean-up spot and see what he can do. No offense to Chase D’Arnaud, he’s young and needs more time to develop, but he has been awful during his time in Pittsburgh. I cannot even fathom why Clint Hurdle continues to bat him in the #2 spot in the order. Hurdle is giving away valuable and critical at-bats in the middle of a pennant race. D’Arnaud single-handedly cost the Buccos the game yesterday with two atrocious errors. He also came to bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and hit a weak fly ball to right on the first pitch in the third and then later flew out to left with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in the seventh inning (this after a failed bunt attempt by Alex Presley, a horrible bunt but an even worse decision to have him bunting there). One game is one game, but D’Arnaud has been terrible his entire time in the big leagues with the exception of a fine defensive play here or there. The 24-year-old shortstop prospect is batting .225 with an OPS of .542. He has 5 extra base hits in 89 at-bats and zero home runs. He also has 7 errors in 21 games played. For the love of Pirates fans, please send this kid back to AAA.
Meanwhile, despite the terrible start Pedro Alvarez got off to this season, he still seems like Babe Ruth compared to the punch and judy hitters the Pirates have been running out there at third base in his absence. Between D’Arnaud mentioned above, Josh Harrison (.576 OPS) and Brandon Wood (.642 OPS) the Pirates third basemen have been another empty spot in a line-up that already has too many deficiencies. Alvarez hit 16 HRs last year in 347 Abs, a pace that would put him in line to be a 30 HR guy despite a tough transition period to the Major Leagues. It is time the Pirates put their faith back in the top prospect they have had since Chad Hermansen and see what the kid can do. We know he can hit AAA pitching where he is hitting .340 with an OPS over .900 in 14 games during his rehab assignment. It is time the Pirates plug him into the #4 spot in a line-up that is dying for an influx of power. Putting Pedro #4 would allow Walker and McCutchen to move up a spot in the order, where they should be anyhow, and give the Pirates a line-up that at least resembles what a Major League line-up should look like.
I am not sure how Alvarez will respond to a recall to the Pirates. His track record tells us that he is a slow-starter which gives me great reason for optimism and I saw enough of the young third-baseman last year to know that at a minimum he is going to hit some home-runs. Whether he develops into a great player will probably depend on his ability to put the ball in play but again, I think we are talking about a guy who is going to hit 30 home runs per season and possibly more. Whether that comes with a .230 batting average or a .270 average will ultimately determine how good of a player he is, but even the poor end of Alvarez’ projected production would be a major upgrade to this Pittsburgh Pirates line-up. It is time the Pirates recall Alvarez and plug him into his normal spot at third. Any hope at a continued run at the division is dependent on it.
Showing posts with label Pedro Alvarez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pedro Alvarez. Show all posts
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Friday, July 1, 2011
Huntington Faces Tough Decisions
As we approach the midpoint of the baseball season and with the trade deadline less than a month away, Pirates management and General Manager Neal Huntington have a very interesting decision on their hands. The Pirates sit at 41-39, only 2 games out of first place in the NL Central and only one game back in the loss column. This is the Pirates best record through 80 games since the 18 year losing streak began and fans are excited. No doubt that the temptation is there for Huntington to make a trade to improve this ballclub and make a run at their first winning season and maybe even an outside shot at contention in nearly two decades.
Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.
It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.
While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.
At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.
As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.
I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.
Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.
It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.
While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.
At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.
As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.
I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Pirates Showing Improvement
Those that stayed up late last night saw the Pirates commit a series of miscues and poor decisions that led to blowing a late lead and a shot at .500. The loss had the feel of one of those “same old Buccos” losses that we have become accustomed to over the past 18 years. Those losses, however, have been few and far between so far this year. At the 30-game mark, the Pirates sit a respectable 14-16 and only three games out of first place in the NL Central. While the Pirates have gotten off to some decent starts during their current consecutive losing seasons streak, there is some legitimate cause for hope stemming from this relative batch of competent play.
First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.
Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.
With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.
While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.
The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.
Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.
First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.
Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.
With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.
While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.
The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.
Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
All Things Pittsburgh
In case you haven’t noticed there has been a ton happening around the Pittsburgh sports scene the past couple of weeks that does not involve the Steelers. I have touched on a few of these things here and there but let’s take an all-inclusive look at everything going on in and around the ‘Burgh.
· Just the mere mention of the Penguins (without even writing their actual name) in the blog was enough to end their twelve game winning streak on Tuesday night in Philadelphia. The Pens followed that loss up with an awful 3rd period performance last night and are now on a two game losing streak. Skipping past the long winning streak, despite its impressiveness, and looking at the season as a whole shows that there is a ton to like about this particular Penguins team. The Pens are tied for fifth in the NHL in both goals for and goals against per game. They are second in the NHL behind the Flyers in goal differential. They are second in the league in penalty killing and have the second most short-handed goals. They rank a pedestrian 16th in power play percentage but that unit has look much improved lately and the goaltending of Marc Andre-Fleury has been superb over the past month, month and a half. The Penguins have done all of this without their best penalty-killer and third best offensive forward in Jordan Staal. Getting Staal back at some point will be like making a major trade acquisition without giving anything up. This Penguins team is well positioned to make another run at the cup and at this point I would make them the co-favorites along with Philadelphia and Detroit.
· One streak that has not ended yet is Sidney Crosby’s 20 game scoring streak. Crosby has 39 points in those 20 games and now leads the league in goals, points, and points per game. He is second in assists, ranks in the top 10 of forwards for +/- and is arguably the best face-off man in the NHL. There really are no superlatives to explain his greatness right now. Any argument over who the best player in the world is completely over, not that there ever was an argument in my mind.
· One positive from the past two losses has been the play of Evgeni Malkin. You may remember him being called out right here in the blog just a few weeks ago and the fact that the Pens had no problem winning without him in his four-game absence. Malkin still ranks well below his standards at 40th in the NHL in points per game and the Pens are going to need a lot more out of their other superstar if they are going to make a run at the Cup like they intend to do, but it was nice to see Geno score three goals in these past two games and more importantly, skate and look like the Malkin we remember from two years ago.
· If you did not watch the premier of HBO’s 24/7 Penguins-Capitals last night, make sure you catch one of the encore shows before next week’s second program and follow from there. HBO does a fantastic job with these behind the scenes documentaries and if last night’s premier was a preview of what’s to come, it will be another fantastic series. My only quibble with the show, and there really is nothing HBO can do about it, is the wide array of story lines that are not covered. We are used to seeing these 24/7s focus on two boxers, or in the Nascar case - of one driver, so with so many different and integral people involved with two hockey teams it is impossible to cover every story.
· Pitt has hired former Miami of Ohio coach Mike Haywood as its new football coach. What I do know about Haywood is that he is an excellent Xs and Os coach. He is a former Charlie Weis pupil at Notre Dame and took a talent depleted Miami team from a 1-11 record to a 9-4 season and a MAC championship. I watched probably too many MAC games for my own good this year but I can tell you that Haywood flat-out outcoached many of his colleagues in leading his team to the MAC championship. What I do not know, however, and what nobody can judge unless they know the person, is how Haywood will do with everything else that a head coaching position at a major college entails. That includes recruiting, public relations, schmoozing with boosters, working with administration and many other things that the public does not see. We know that Dave Wannstedt was fantastic in all of these areas, thus my reluctance in firing him. I do not know Mike Haywood and I do not think his time at Miami was enough to judge him on those things so I will withhold any judgment on him until he is given the proper amount of time in the position. The one thing I do know is that AD Steve Pederson does not have a great track record with hiring football coaches that are good at these things. His last two hires, Bill Callahan and Walt Harris, were excellent football Xs and Os guys but both proved to be terrible at the rest of the job requirements. That does not particularly instill confidence in me with Pederson’s choice, given Haywood’s resume and background.
· If Haywood is the excellent game coach that I believe he is, expect Pitt to have a good season next year with a good bit of talent coming back and a very manageable schedule. That could propel Haywood and his staff to continuing on Pitt’s strong recruiting efforts and get the Pitt administration and boosters on his side. This could significantly aid Haywood as he does his on-the-job training toward long term success. If he does not succeed immediately on the field, however, I will not be too confident in his chances going forward. In either case, we will not be able to properly evaluate this hire for at least three, but more likely four or five years down the line.
· The Pirates signed Lyle Overbay earlier this week to be their first baseman next year. I thought Bob Smizik on his Post Gazette blog summed it up best, “Since Overbay is a left-handed hitter and will start at first base, the team is basically replacing Garrett Jones with, uh, Garrett Jones.” Smizik went on to say that the Pirates are not exactly signing the “weapons” that Frank Coonelly talked about in one of his chats on the Pirates website. In reality the four players that the Pirates have acquired are not all that much different from their predecessors. Overbay for Jones/Ryan Doumit, Mat Diaz for Lastings Milledge, Scott Olsen for Zach Duke and Kevin Correia will be added as the 4th or 5th starter to a team that already has plenty of those.
· The Pirates have also made no secret of their desire to trade Ryan Doumit and his salary. Personally, I hope Doumit sticks around. For the Pirates’ signings to make any sense it is imperative that they use platoon rotations at first base and in right field. A platoon at catcher with Doumit facing right-handed pitchers and Chris Snyder facing lefties would also be ideal. I have a tough time believing that the Pirates will stick to these platoon roles, as it seems managers never do, but if the Pirates hang on to Doumit and strictly use the platoon match-ups they could run a halfway decent line-up out there against both lefties and righties. Here they are, with 2010 OPS averages in parenthesis, against those type pitchers:
Vs. Righties: Vs. Lefties:
McCutchen (.784) Tabata (.682)
Tabata (.767) Walker (.809)
Walker (.818) McCutchen (.903)
Alvarez (.858) Alvarez (.644)
Jones (.775) Diaz (.830)
Doumit (.832) Pearce (.964)
Overbay (.779) Snyder (.750)
Cedeno (.647) Cedeno (.767)
· As for all of those number four and five type starters, I have no answer for that. Pirates’ fans can hope that Ross Ohlendorf and James McDonald continue to develop and that Brad Lincoln develops into what management hopes he can become. Even at their peaks, however, those three are no better than good number three starters on a playoff team. No, the Pirates best pitching hope lies in their lower minor league ranks and is still a couple of years away. There is always Charlie Morton with that “electric stuff”.
· With the Cardinals and Reds looking as good if not better for next year, it could be another long season for the Buccos. The positive is that we get to watch the continued development of the young players and actually have some hope for the future.
· Lastly, and we will get into a lot more college hoops after the Bowl Season ends, but this Pitt basketball team has the makings of being the best team in the Ben Howland/Jamie Dixon era. There is no question that this is the deepest and most talented team from one through ten that Dixon has coached, but I am not sure if there is a player the caliber of a Sam Young or DeJuan Blair on the team. The more important question however, as has been with many of the past teams, is will there be a player that can put this team on his back when things are not going right. Pitt has lacked this superstar for much, if not all, of this modern era and it has often been its achilles heel. The closest thing Pitt had to this player was Sam Young from the Elite Eight team two years ago. If this Pitt team is going to match and hopefully surpass that team Brad Wannamaker, Ashton Gibbs or the darkhorse candidate Dante Taylor is going to need to take his game to the next level. We did not see this happen in the Tennessee loss, but the season is still quite young.
Thursday Night Pick
SAN DIEGO (-10) over San Francisco
· Just the mere mention of the Penguins (without even writing their actual name) in the blog was enough to end their twelve game winning streak on Tuesday night in Philadelphia. The Pens followed that loss up with an awful 3rd period performance last night and are now on a two game losing streak. Skipping past the long winning streak, despite its impressiveness, and looking at the season as a whole shows that there is a ton to like about this particular Penguins team. The Pens are tied for fifth in the NHL in both goals for and goals against per game. They are second in the NHL behind the Flyers in goal differential. They are second in the league in penalty killing and have the second most short-handed goals. They rank a pedestrian 16th in power play percentage but that unit has look much improved lately and the goaltending of Marc Andre-Fleury has been superb over the past month, month and a half. The Penguins have done all of this without their best penalty-killer and third best offensive forward in Jordan Staal. Getting Staal back at some point will be like making a major trade acquisition without giving anything up. This Penguins team is well positioned to make another run at the cup and at this point I would make them the co-favorites along with Philadelphia and Detroit.
· One streak that has not ended yet is Sidney Crosby’s 20 game scoring streak. Crosby has 39 points in those 20 games and now leads the league in goals, points, and points per game. He is second in assists, ranks in the top 10 of forwards for +/- and is arguably the best face-off man in the NHL. There really are no superlatives to explain his greatness right now. Any argument over who the best player in the world is completely over, not that there ever was an argument in my mind.
· One positive from the past two losses has been the play of Evgeni Malkin. You may remember him being called out right here in the blog just a few weeks ago and the fact that the Pens had no problem winning without him in his four-game absence. Malkin still ranks well below his standards at 40th in the NHL in points per game and the Pens are going to need a lot more out of their other superstar if they are going to make a run at the Cup like they intend to do, but it was nice to see Geno score three goals in these past two games and more importantly, skate and look like the Malkin we remember from two years ago.
· If you did not watch the premier of HBO’s 24/7 Penguins-Capitals last night, make sure you catch one of the encore shows before next week’s second program and follow from there. HBO does a fantastic job with these behind the scenes documentaries and if last night’s premier was a preview of what’s to come, it will be another fantastic series. My only quibble with the show, and there really is nothing HBO can do about it, is the wide array of story lines that are not covered. We are used to seeing these 24/7s focus on two boxers, or in the Nascar case - of one driver, so with so many different and integral people involved with two hockey teams it is impossible to cover every story.
· Pitt has hired former Miami of Ohio coach Mike Haywood as its new football coach. What I do know about Haywood is that he is an excellent Xs and Os coach. He is a former Charlie Weis pupil at Notre Dame and took a talent depleted Miami team from a 1-11 record to a 9-4 season and a MAC championship. I watched probably too many MAC games for my own good this year but I can tell you that Haywood flat-out outcoached many of his colleagues in leading his team to the MAC championship. What I do not know, however, and what nobody can judge unless they know the person, is how Haywood will do with everything else that a head coaching position at a major college entails. That includes recruiting, public relations, schmoozing with boosters, working with administration and many other things that the public does not see. We know that Dave Wannstedt was fantastic in all of these areas, thus my reluctance in firing him. I do not know Mike Haywood and I do not think his time at Miami was enough to judge him on those things so I will withhold any judgment on him until he is given the proper amount of time in the position. The one thing I do know is that AD Steve Pederson does not have a great track record with hiring football coaches that are good at these things. His last two hires, Bill Callahan and Walt Harris, were excellent football Xs and Os guys but both proved to be terrible at the rest of the job requirements. That does not particularly instill confidence in me with Pederson’s choice, given Haywood’s resume and background.
· If Haywood is the excellent game coach that I believe he is, expect Pitt to have a good season next year with a good bit of talent coming back and a very manageable schedule. That could propel Haywood and his staff to continuing on Pitt’s strong recruiting efforts and get the Pitt administration and boosters on his side. This could significantly aid Haywood as he does his on-the-job training toward long term success. If he does not succeed immediately on the field, however, I will not be too confident in his chances going forward. In either case, we will not be able to properly evaluate this hire for at least three, but more likely four or five years down the line.
· The Pirates signed Lyle Overbay earlier this week to be their first baseman next year. I thought Bob Smizik on his Post Gazette blog summed it up best, “Since Overbay is a left-handed hitter and will start at first base, the team is basically replacing Garrett Jones with, uh, Garrett Jones.” Smizik went on to say that the Pirates are not exactly signing the “weapons” that Frank Coonelly talked about in one of his chats on the Pirates website. In reality the four players that the Pirates have acquired are not all that much different from their predecessors. Overbay for Jones/Ryan Doumit, Mat Diaz for Lastings Milledge, Scott Olsen for Zach Duke and Kevin Correia will be added as the 4th or 5th starter to a team that already has plenty of those.
· The Pirates have also made no secret of their desire to trade Ryan Doumit and his salary. Personally, I hope Doumit sticks around. For the Pirates’ signings to make any sense it is imperative that they use platoon rotations at first base and in right field. A platoon at catcher with Doumit facing right-handed pitchers and Chris Snyder facing lefties would also be ideal. I have a tough time believing that the Pirates will stick to these platoon roles, as it seems managers never do, but if the Pirates hang on to Doumit and strictly use the platoon match-ups they could run a halfway decent line-up out there against both lefties and righties. Here they are, with 2010 OPS averages in parenthesis, against those type pitchers:
Vs. Righties: Vs. Lefties:
McCutchen (.784) Tabata (.682)
Tabata (.767) Walker (.809)
Walker (.818) McCutchen (.903)
Alvarez (.858) Alvarez (.644)
Jones (.775) Diaz (.830)
Doumit (.832) Pearce (.964)
Overbay (.779) Snyder (.750)
Cedeno (.647) Cedeno (.767)
· As for all of those number four and five type starters, I have no answer for that. Pirates’ fans can hope that Ross Ohlendorf and James McDonald continue to develop and that Brad Lincoln develops into what management hopes he can become. Even at their peaks, however, those three are no better than good number three starters on a playoff team. No, the Pirates best pitching hope lies in their lower minor league ranks and is still a couple of years away. There is always Charlie Morton with that “electric stuff”.
· With the Cardinals and Reds looking as good if not better for next year, it could be another long season for the Buccos. The positive is that we get to watch the continued development of the young players and actually have some hope for the future.
· Lastly, and we will get into a lot more college hoops after the Bowl Season ends, but this Pitt basketball team has the makings of being the best team in the Ben Howland/Jamie Dixon era. There is no question that this is the deepest and most talented team from one through ten that Dixon has coached, but I am not sure if there is a player the caliber of a Sam Young or DeJuan Blair on the team. The more important question however, as has been with many of the past teams, is will there be a player that can put this team on his back when things are not going right. Pitt has lacked this superstar for much, if not all, of this modern era and it has often been its achilles heel. The closest thing Pitt had to this player was Sam Young from the Elite Eight team two years ago. If this Pitt team is going to match and hopefully surpass that team Brad Wannamaker, Ashton Gibbs or the darkhorse candidate Dante Taylor is going to need to take his game to the next level. We did not see this happen in the Tennessee loss, but the season is still quite young.
Thursday Night Pick
SAN DIEGO (-10) over San Francisco
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Alvarez Debut Afterthoughts
A night that began with so much promise ended with another dreadful display from the hometown Pittsburgh Pirates. What we hoped would be the beginning of a new era in Pittsburgh baseball ended with fans mumbling “the same old Buccos”. Yes, it was the debut of the Pirates best hitting prospect since Barry Bonds and best overall prospect since Kris Benson (we will leave Chad Hermansen walking on water out of this) but Alvarez’ debut became a mere afterthought with the Pirates losing their 10th straight game.
The ineptitude of the Buccos over the past few weeks even channeled down the excitement for the Alvarez arrival. The crowd, though obviously larger than a normal Wednesday night, was still quite meager for the moment. The crowd also lacked the energy and buzz that was present when Andrew McCutchen arrived on a mid-summer day last year. Still, most of the crowd on hand was there to see the arrival of the next savior in Pirates history.
For his part, Pedro did ok. Alvarez got his first ovation when he began a 5-4-3 double play in the top of the second. He got another loud ovation when he came to bat for the first time in the bottom of the second inning. He promptly struck out, something that Pirates fans should get used to. Even if Alvarez turns out to be everything he is expected to be, he is going to strike out his fair share. By the end of the night, Alvarez finished 0-2 with a walk and a run scored. He also committed an error by failing to field a relatively routine throw to third in the top of the ninth. As far as debuts go, it was fairly ordinary.
We did see flashes, however, of the enormous potential Alvarez possesses. He worked a good at-bat in his first plate appearance before striking out. He worked another good at-bat in the fifth, drawing a walk and eventually scoring the Pirates’ first run of the game. Alvarez then hit a sharp line-drive the opposite way to left in his final at-bat in the ninth. The White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen, and pitcher, John Danks, were both quick to praise the kid mentioning the obvious talent he possesses.
In the end, however, the so-so performance by Alvarez was overshadowed by the pathetic baseball that the Pirates are playing right now. I am embarrassed that I wrote just a few short weeks ago that this team was playing hard and fundamentally sound baseball for the most part. Over the past few weeks, they are doing anything but. The Pirates incompetence was punctuated by a Bad News Bears like 9th inning in which they committed four errors and threw the ball around like a bunch of ten-year-olds. It prompted a buddy of mine to text me, “Is this the Mount Washington little league team” in reference to my little league days. I had to quickly respond that we were much better than that. Pedro Alvarez may one day be the guy who leads this baseball club back to respectability, but what was obvious last night is that day is still very far away.
The ineptitude of the Buccos over the past few weeks even channeled down the excitement for the Alvarez arrival. The crowd, though obviously larger than a normal Wednesday night, was still quite meager for the moment. The crowd also lacked the energy and buzz that was present when Andrew McCutchen arrived on a mid-summer day last year. Still, most of the crowd on hand was there to see the arrival of the next savior in Pirates history.
For his part, Pedro did ok. Alvarez got his first ovation when he began a 5-4-3 double play in the top of the second. He got another loud ovation when he came to bat for the first time in the bottom of the second inning. He promptly struck out, something that Pirates fans should get used to. Even if Alvarez turns out to be everything he is expected to be, he is going to strike out his fair share. By the end of the night, Alvarez finished 0-2 with a walk and a run scored. He also committed an error by failing to field a relatively routine throw to third in the top of the ninth. As far as debuts go, it was fairly ordinary.
We did see flashes, however, of the enormous potential Alvarez possesses. He worked a good at-bat in his first plate appearance before striking out. He worked another good at-bat in the fifth, drawing a walk and eventually scoring the Pirates’ first run of the game. Alvarez then hit a sharp line-drive the opposite way to left in his final at-bat in the ninth. The White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen, and pitcher, John Danks, were both quick to praise the kid mentioning the obvious talent he possesses.
In the end, however, the so-so performance by Alvarez was overshadowed by the pathetic baseball that the Pirates are playing right now. I am embarrassed that I wrote just a few short weeks ago that this team was playing hard and fundamentally sound baseball for the most part. Over the past few weeks, they are doing anything but. The Pirates incompetence was punctuated by a Bad News Bears like 9th inning in which they committed four errors and threw the ball around like a bunch of ten-year-olds. It prompted a buddy of mine to text me, “Is this the Mount Washington little league team” in reference to my little league days. I had to quickly respond that we were much better than that. Pedro Alvarez may one day be the guy who leads this baseball club back to respectability, but what was obvious last night is that day is still very far away.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Alvarez Debut
Pedro Alvarez makes his much anticipated Major League debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. I am heading over to the ballpark now for what could be the beginning of a new era in Pirates baseball. I was at the opening game for Andrew McCutchen as well and the stadium had a certain buzz about it on a beautiful afternoon day last year. It will be interesting to see what kind of crowd and what kind of buzz the game tonight holds during a terrible stretch of baseball being played by the Pirates.
I will report back after the game with my first impressions of Alvarez and his debut.
I will report back after the game with my first impressions of Alvarez and his debut.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)