After a 2-0 Conference Championship weekend, I am 5-5 heading into the Super Bowl and need the right pick here to have a profitable postseason. Let's cut right to it:
New England (-3) over New York. I could give you a hundred reasons why each team will win this game, and quite frankly after two weeks of build up and Super Bowl coverage on every sports network, you have heard every one of these reasons. I like New England simply because I believe their offensive line can neutralize what is the Giants' biggest strength, their defensive front's ability to put pressure on the QB without blitzing. If the Giants are unable to do this, Tom Brady is going to have a field day with or without Gronkowski. I don't think New England's defense is capable of slowing down Eli and his potent WRs either, at least not for the whole game, so I expect a fair amount of points to be put up but at the end of the day, Brady and Belichick get ring number four. Patriots 31 - Giants 27.
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Conference Championship Picks
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND – We cannot dismiss the entire season because of what happened last week. Sure, the Patriots looked unbeatable against Denver and Baltimore struggled to get by Houston, but that doesn't necessarily give us any insight into this week. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots got up early and a couple Joe Flacco interceptions made this game get a bit out of hand. More likely, however, is that a very good Ravens defense, Ray Rice and a team that is 7-0 this year against other playoff teams (New England, by the way, played only 2 playoff teams and lost both games) is able to stay in this game. Ultimately, Tom Brady is the best player on the field and the Patriots escape with a close, hard-fought victory. Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
New York (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Better QB, better weapons on offense and a pass rush that seems almost unblockable give the Giants a big edge in this one. The 49ers have a ton going in their favor, an old-school type team that is playing sensational defense, winning the turnover battle, creating field position with their special teams and has it's QB playing the best football of his career - not to mention home-field advantage. All of those things aren't enough for me to pick against Eli and the more talented team. Giants 27 - 49ers 20
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND – We cannot dismiss the entire season because of what happened last week. Sure, the Patriots looked unbeatable against Denver and Baltimore struggled to get by Houston, but that doesn't necessarily give us any insight into this week. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots got up early and a couple Joe Flacco interceptions made this game get a bit out of hand. More likely, however, is that a very good Ravens defense, Ray Rice and a team that is 7-0 this year against other playoff teams (New England, by the way, played only 2 playoff teams and lost both games) is able to stay in this game. Ultimately, Tom Brady is the best player on the field and the Patriots escape with a close, hard-fought victory. Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
New York (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Better QB, better weapons on offense and a pass rush that seems almost unblockable give the Giants a big edge in this one. The 49ers have a ton going in their favor, an old-school type team that is playing sensational defense, winning the turnover battle, creating field position with their special teams and has it's QB playing the best football of his career - not to mention home-field advantage. All of those things aren't enough for me to pick against Eli and the more talented team. Giants 27 - 49ers 20
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Changing of the Guard?
There are going to be thousands of articles, stories and features covering pretty much every angle of the Super Bowl in the next two weeks that I would rather leave to others. There is one subject that I want to touch on before taking the next week to catch up on other things happening around the sports world before diving into the Super Bowl coverage full throttle next week. That subject is one that I enjoy talking about the most in sports - the quarterback position. In particular, are we seeing a changing of the guard at the top of the NFL’s pecking order?
Sure, Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl just a year ago and Tom Brady just completed what is soon to be another MVP season, but Manning and Brady will be 35 and 34-years-old, respectively, when the season begins next year (I guess at this point we need to start saying IF THE SEASON BEGINS NEXT YEAR). Clearly each has a few great years left in him and if Brett Favre is an example with his career year at the age of 40, maybe even another five or six years of very productive football left. Needless to say, however, both have seen their youth and, most likely, the peak of their physical abilities in the rear-view mirror.
Tom Brady and his Patriots have lost their last three postseason contests, including two of those at home. Peyton Manning owns a career losing record in the playoffs, also suffering defeat in his last two outings. Both have time to add to their unbelievable legacies, and the race to be called to the greatest of all time is still on, but the windows for these all time greats could perhaps be starting to narrow. The Colts look like a team that needs a good amount of roster work to get back to their Super Bowl level of last year. Meanwhile, while it is true that the Patriots look very well positioned for the future, let’s not forget that Brady is already working on one surgically repaired knee and as the Jets playoff game showed, he can be a sitting duck in the pocket.
I am in no way trying to minimize the accomplishments of two, if not the two, greatest quarterbacks of all time. Words don’t do justice to the greatness of the two quarterbacks, and as of today I would consider each of their teams to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites for next year because of them. I am simply stating that we may finally be seeing a changing of the guard as the premier NFL QBs of today. To illustrate…
Ben Roethlisberger is not yet 29 and Aaron Rodgers just recently turned 27. Both are just entering what has become the historical peak years for a quarterback of 28-34 years old, and in Rodgers case he has not even hit that magic number yet.
I have long maintained that Roethlisberger would be #3 on my list of top NFL quarterbacks and it may now be time to start including him in the conversation with Manning and Brady. In seven years, Roethlisberger has now won two Super Bowls with a chance at a third, been to four AFC Championships, is the owner of a 10-2 career postseason record, a 69-29 regular season record and a career passer rating of 92.5, good for 8th all-time. Did I mention that he is only entering what are believed to be a quarterback’s peak years? Did I mention that stats only tell half of the story with Roethlisberger, a guy who keeps plays alive with his legs and always seems to elevate his play when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 19 comeback victories including his best comeback in Super Bowl XLIII?
As for Rodgers, it is still entirely too early to put him on the level of Manning, Brady or even Roethlisberger at this point historically, but it is becoming harder and harder not to recognize the Hall of Fame talent he is working with. On top of that career passer rating list sits Rodgers at 98.4, ahead of legendary names like Young, Montana, Marino and the aforementioned three greats of today. Rodgers play this postseason has been nothing short of greatness and that play, combined with last year’s performance in the shootout loss to the Cardinals, has Rodgers on top of the career postseason passer rating list as well. Rodgers has a long way to go historically to be mentioned in the same breath as Manning and Brady, but it is almost impossible to argue that he is not playing on the same level as those guys today.
In today’s modern era, with linebackers and defensive ends running 4.5 second forty-yard-dashes and defensive schemes becoming ever more complex, it has become almost essential for quarterbacks to make plays with their legs, both running the football and getting outside the pocket to make plays down the field with their arms. No one performs this aspect of the position better than Roethlisberger and Rodgers, not even Michael Vick who is more of a runner than a scrambler. What Brady and Manning have on the young guns in terms of reading defenses and quick releases, Rodgers and Big Ben more than make up for with their play-making abilities. I mention this only as further proof that it is possible a changing of the guard is taking place. We watched Manning and Brady being hit play after play against the Jets who knew where they would be in the pocket, then watched as Roethlisberger made the two biggest plays of the second half by avoiding rushes and getting outside of the pocket. As this era continues to progress, it will become more essential for quarterbacks to have this escape ability, and both Rodgers and Roethlisberger excel in this regard.
At the end of the day, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and are still probably the best two quarterbacks of today. The day is coming, however, that will not be the case and my guess is that this Super Bowl is a preview as to who their two replacements will be as we carry on the argument for the NFL’s best quarterback.
Sure, Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl just a year ago and Tom Brady just completed what is soon to be another MVP season, but Manning and Brady will be 35 and 34-years-old, respectively, when the season begins next year (I guess at this point we need to start saying IF THE SEASON BEGINS NEXT YEAR). Clearly each has a few great years left in him and if Brett Favre is an example with his career year at the age of 40, maybe even another five or six years of very productive football left. Needless to say, however, both have seen their youth and, most likely, the peak of their physical abilities in the rear-view mirror.
Tom Brady and his Patriots have lost their last three postseason contests, including two of those at home. Peyton Manning owns a career losing record in the playoffs, also suffering defeat in his last two outings. Both have time to add to their unbelievable legacies, and the race to be called to the greatest of all time is still on, but the windows for these all time greats could perhaps be starting to narrow. The Colts look like a team that needs a good amount of roster work to get back to their Super Bowl level of last year. Meanwhile, while it is true that the Patriots look very well positioned for the future, let’s not forget that Brady is already working on one surgically repaired knee and as the Jets playoff game showed, he can be a sitting duck in the pocket.
I am in no way trying to minimize the accomplishments of two, if not the two, greatest quarterbacks of all time. Words don’t do justice to the greatness of the two quarterbacks, and as of today I would consider each of their teams to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites for next year because of them. I am simply stating that we may finally be seeing a changing of the guard as the premier NFL QBs of today. To illustrate…
Ben Roethlisberger is not yet 29 and Aaron Rodgers just recently turned 27. Both are just entering what has become the historical peak years for a quarterback of 28-34 years old, and in Rodgers case he has not even hit that magic number yet.
I have long maintained that Roethlisberger would be #3 on my list of top NFL quarterbacks and it may now be time to start including him in the conversation with Manning and Brady. In seven years, Roethlisberger has now won two Super Bowls with a chance at a third, been to four AFC Championships, is the owner of a 10-2 career postseason record, a 69-29 regular season record and a career passer rating of 92.5, good for 8th all-time. Did I mention that he is only entering what are believed to be a quarterback’s peak years? Did I mention that stats only tell half of the story with Roethlisberger, a guy who keeps plays alive with his legs and always seems to elevate his play when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 19 comeback victories including his best comeback in Super Bowl XLIII?
As for Rodgers, it is still entirely too early to put him on the level of Manning, Brady or even Roethlisberger at this point historically, but it is becoming harder and harder not to recognize the Hall of Fame talent he is working with. On top of that career passer rating list sits Rodgers at 98.4, ahead of legendary names like Young, Montana, Marino and the aforementioned three greats of today. Rodgers play this postseason has been nothing short of greatness and that play, combined with last year’s performance in the shootout loss to the Cardinals, has Rodgers on top of the career postseason passer rating list as well. Rodgers has a long way to go historically to be mentioned in the same breath as Manning and Brady, but it is almost impossible to argue that he is not playing on the same level as those guys today.
In today’s modern era, with linebackers and defensive ends running 4.5 second forty-yard-dashes and defensive schemes becoming ever more complex, it has become almost essential for quarterbacks to make plays with their legs, both running the football and getting outside the pocket to make plays down the field with their arms. No one performs this aspect of the position better than Roethlisberger and Rodgers, not even Michael Vick who is more of a runner than a scrambler. What Brady and Manning have on the young guns in terms of reading defenses and quick releases, Rodgers and Big Ben more than make up for with their play-making abilities. I mention this only as further proof that it is possible a changing of the guard is taking place. We watched Manning and Brady being hit play after play against the Jets who knew where they would be in the pocket, then watched as Roethlisberger made the two biggest plays of the second half by avoiding rushes and getting outside of the pocket. As this era continues to progress, it will become more essential for quarterbacks to have this escape ability, and both Rodgers and Roethlisberger excel in this regard.
At the end of the day, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and are still probably the best two quarterbacks of today. The day is coming, however, that will not be the case and my guess is that this Super Bowl is a preview as to who their two replacements will be as we carry on the argument for the NFL’s best quarterback.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Vick or Brady for MVP
The ongoing debate on talk radio right now is whether Michael Vick or Tom Brady is the NFL MVP at this point. I am a fan of Michael Vick, the football player. I was a fan long before he went to prison and felt that he was undervalued and underappreciated as a quarterback. The guy flat out won football games even before he understood the QB position. I often said give me that guy as my quarterback and I can build an offense around his unique talents. He was doing just fine winning football games pre-incarceration and he has taken his game to a whole new level this year.
I also understand his story of redemption and that everyone deserves a second chance. I have fought with my wife over this (she absolutely despises Vick, as do most women and non football fans it seems). To me, he seems to be genuine in his remorse and his actions to make amends. On the football field, Vick has taken his game to a whole new level. Working with a great offensive mind like Andy Reid and Vick’s newfound focus in life has allowed him to take his game to a place we have not seen before. All of that does not make Michael Vick the MVP, however.
The MVP is the guy that adds the most value both around the league and to his team and this year it is unquestionably Tom Brady. Both Brady and Vick are putting up phenomenal stats. Brady is completing over two-thirds of his passes, is on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards, has thrown 31 TDs against only 4 interceptions and has the league’s best passer rating. Oh, did I mention he has done this while winning 12 games despite the Patriots trading what many believed to be their best playmaker midseason. Vick, meanwhile, is completing over 63% of his passes (he had never completed more than 56% before this season), is third in the NFL in passer rating behind only Brady and Philip Rivers, has 20 TD passes against only 5 interceptions and has thrown in another 613 yards and 8 TDs on the ground. There is one monumental stat missing from those numbers, however, and that is games played.
Vick has missed three games and a good part of another. People try to use this to endorse his case but that notion is ridiculous. There is no more value than in actually playing. The Eagles were actually 2-1 in the three games Vick missed and averaged nearly 26 points per game in those three, including a victory over the NFC leading Atlanta Falcons. That does not take away from Vick’s accomplishments, nor does it diminish his value to the Eagles season, but it does severely limit his value when compared with Tom Brady who has started every game, led his team to 12 victories, and has only missed a snap when his team was ahead by about six touchdowns. By many advanced metrics, including Football Outsiders offensive efficiency, this Patriots offense is better than the 2007 version that seemed almost unstoppable until the Super Bowl. The reason is pretty simple, Tom Brady.
I listened to Derrick Brooks, yes the former Buccaneer linebacker, talk yesterday about the three reasons he thinks Michael Vick should be MVP over Tom Brady. His reasons were 1.) Vick’s story of redemption; 2.) That Brady was having a great year but not his greatest year; and 3.) That Brady’s supporting cast was almost as good as Vick’s supporting cast. After I got over the fact that Brooks has that job despite making moronic arguments like the one above (he also just got done saying that the Bears are a top five team), I thought about how I would counter that line of thinking if he was on my show. So to answer Mr. Brooks: 1.) Vick’s story has nothing to do with his value on the field. If you want to give him the Comeback Player of the Year, or MVS (Most Valuable Story), be my guest; 2.) What does this have to do with this year’s MVP...Just because Brady played slightly better in 2007, and I am not sure that is even the case, it still does not mean he hasn’t been the best player and most valuable player in the league this year; and 3.) So you are making an argument for Vick by arguing that his supporting cast is slightly better? Ok then…But to that point, both do have outstanding supporting casts. The two teams and styles are completely different but both quarterbacks are surrounded by fantastic players in their respective roles. The one difference between the two in my opinion would be DeSean Jackson, who very well could be the Eagles MVP and not Michael Vick.
Look, Michael Vick has been fantastic this year. He deserves all the glory and praise he is getting for his on-field performance and all the respect and appreciation he is getting for trying to turn his life around off the field. That does not make him the NFL MVP. Tom Brady has been the league’s best player, on the league’s best team, leading a historical offense, creating the most value for his team and around the league. That is the NFL's Most Valuable Player.
I also understand his story of redemption and that everyone deserves a second chance. I have fought with my wife over this (she absolutely despises Vick, as do most women and non football fans it seems). To me, he seems to be genuine in his remorse and his actions to make amends. On the football field, Vick has taken his game to a whole new level. Working with a great offensive mind like Andy Reid and Vick’s newfound focus in life has allowed him to take his game to a place we have not seen before. All of that does not make Michael Vick the MVP, however.
The MVP is the guy that adds the most value both around the league and to his team and this year it is unquestionably Tom Brady. Both Brady and Vick are putting up phenomenal stats. Brady is completing over two-thirds of his passes, is on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards, has thrown 31 TDs against only 4 interceptions and has the league’s best passer rating. Oh, did I mention he has done this while winning 12 games despite the Patriots trading what many believed to be their best playmaker midseason. Vick, meanwhile, is completing over 63% of his passes (he had never completed more than 56% before this season), is third in the NFL in passer rating behind only Brady and Philip Rivers, has 20 TD passes against only 5 interceptions and has thrown in another 613 yards and 8 TDs on the ground. There is one monumental stat missing from those numbers, however, and that is games played.
Vick has missed three games and a good part of another. People try to use this to endorse his case but that notion is ridiculous. There is no more value than in actually playing. The Eagles were actually 2-1 in the three games Vick missed and averaged nearly 26 points per game in those three, including a victory over the NFC leading Atlanta Falcons. That does not take away from Vick’s accomplishments, nor does it diminish his value to the Eagles season, but it does severely limit his value when compared with Tom Brady who has started every game, led his team to 12 victories, and has only missed a snap when his team was ahead by about six touchdowns. By many advanced metrics, including Football Outsiders offensive efficiency, this Patriots offense is better than the 2007 version that seemed almost unstoppable until the Super Bowl. The reason is pretty simple, Tom Brady.
I listened to Derrick Brooks, yes the former Buccaneer linebacker, talk yesterday about the three reasons he thinks Michael Vick should be MVP over Tom Brady. His reasons were 1.) Vick’s story of redemption; 2.) That Brady was having a great year but not his greatest year; and 3.) That Brady’s supporting cast was almost as good as Vick’s supporting cast. After I got over the fact that Brooks has that job despite making moronic arguments like the one above (he also just got done saying that the Bears are a top five team), I thought about how I would counter that line of thinking if he was on my show. So to answer Mr. Brooks: 1.) Vick’s story has nothing to do with his value on the field. If you want to give him the Comeback Player of the Year, or MVS (Most Valuable Story), be my guest; 2.) What does this have to do with this year’s MVP...Just because Brady played slightly better in 2007, and I am not sure that is even the case, it still does not mean he hasn’t been the best player and most valuable player in the league this year; and 3.) So you are making an argument for Vick by arguing that his supporting cast is slightly better? Ok then…But to that point, both do have outstanding supporting casts. The two teams and styles are completely different but both quarterbacks are surrounded by fantastic players in their respective roles. The one difference between the two in my opinion would be DeSean Jackson, who very well could be the Eagles MVP and not Michael Vick.
Look, Michael Vick has been fantastic this year. He deserves all the glory and praise he is getting for his on-field performance and all the respect and appreciation he is getting for trying to turn his life around off the field. That does not make him the NFL MVP. Tom Brady has been the league’s best player, on the league’s best team, leading a historical offense, creating the most value for his team and around the league. That is the NFL's Most Valuable Player.
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