Yesterday, in Part I of our Pirates preview, we discussed the Pirates pitching and how it shapes up to be an average staff in the National League. The lack of a true “star” pitcher is what separates the Pirates’ staff and those of the contenders in the National League. (Click here to read Part I.) The same lack of star power is true not only for the Pirates starting rotation, but it is true of their line-up as well, especially in terms of a power bat.
The Pirates projected 2010 line-up, well at least my projected 2010 line-up, has a combined 172 career home runs, or roughly three seasons from Ryan Howard. Catcher Ryan Doumit is the career leader with 46 and Garrett Jones’ 23 home runs last year is the most any player in the line-up has hit in one season. In case you think this is an aberration, the Pirates hit 125 HRs last year, more than only the Giants and injury ravaged Mets. When the object of the game is to score runs, and the easiest way to score runs is by hitting the ball out of the ballpark, this does not bode well for a team that cannot do this regularly. Further, the Pirates also had the fourth worst on-base percentage in the majors last year. That essentially means the Pirates could not do the two most important aspects of getting runners to home plate. It’s not hard to understand why they finished DEAD LAST in the Major Leagues last year in runs scored.
My projected line-up for the Buccos, both in terms of what I think it SHOULD be and the one that I actually think it WILL be on opening day are the same (meaning I am giving Manager John Russell a little bit of credit here that he knows what he is doing). I think the 3-7 spots in the order could be slightly different and I would not be surprised if Bobby Crosby beats out Ronnie Cedeno at short, but the 2010 line-up should look pretty similar to this:
Andrew McCutchen – CF
Akinori Iwamura – 2B
Ryan Doumit – C
Garrett Jones – RF
Jeff Clement – 1B
Lastings Milledge – LF
Andy LaRoche – 3B
Ronnie Cedeno – SS
This year’s line-up does not offer too much of an improvement from last year’s dismal offense, though it should be slightly better. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, the most respected projections out there, forecast the eight Pirates regulars above to hit a combined 119 home runs. Throw in regular back-ups Ryan Church, Brandon Moss, Delwyn Young, Bobby Crosby, Jason Jaramillo and Ramon Vazquez and the Pirates are projected to hit approximately 155 home runs in 2010. This is a slight uptick from last year but still puts the Pirates in the bottom third of the league. No Pirate, including Garrett Jones, is projected to hit more than 22 home runs. Looking at on-base percentage, the Pirates are projected to get on base at a .330 clip, a number that would have ranked the Pirates 20th in the majors last year. Once again, the Pirates will not get on base enough and will not hit enough home runs to score the runs needed to win on a nightly basis, especially given the average pitching staff the Pirates will be throwing.
PECOTA’s overall 2010 projections for the Pirates include a team AVG/OBP/SLG percentage of .259/.330/.411. Once again these projections will not tell the whole story of the 2010 Pirates, but they do a nice job of averaging out and giving us a baseline in which to forecast the 2010 season. The .741 OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage, the “go-to” number for offensive production) would have once again ranked 20th in Major League baseball last year and the 693 projected runs would have been 23rd. Simply put, the 2010 Pirates will not score enough runs to win on a regular basis. Even the best case scenario for each of the Pirates regulars would barely put the team above an average offensive lineup.
Andrew McCutchen looks like the real deal and should have a fine season at the top of the order. In time, McCutchen may develop into a dynamic weapon in the leadoff spot or even develop slightly more power to be a very productive #3 hitter. That time is probably another year or two away, however. Iwamura is a professional and should do a decent job at 2B and in the 2-hole. I also like Lastings Milledge potential as a solid regular and if Ryan Doumit can ever stay healthy, the guy is a darn-good offensive catcher. That’s where my praise of this offense will end. Garrett Jones hit a hot streak last year and had a great couple of months. Pitchers will now study film and have a book on Jones. There is usually a reason a player does not make it to the big leagues until he is 28 years old. If Jones can develop into even a solid regular and hit 20 HRs, the Pirates should be thrilled….and he projects as their clean-up hitter this year! Andy LaRoche hopes to build on a strong September, but even if he can, LaRoche is not the difference maker you need playing third. If LaRoche can transition to 2B in the future, he could be a plus at that position, but not with his bat at third. Cedeno and Crosby are both light hitting shortstops who may hit the occasional home run and that’s all you can hope for. Finally, Jeff Clement will start at first base. Clement was a prized prospect when he was projected to be a .260-.270 batting, 20-25 HR guy behind the plate. Even if Clement can fulfill those projections, which there is serious doubt that he can, that production from your catcher is great, that production from your first baseman is not acceptable.
The Pirates are simply lacking that slugger in the middle of the order that can hit the ball out of the ballpark. Baseball is a game won by superstars and the Pirates have nothing approaching that standard in this line-up. Hope could be on the way in Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates first round draft pick two years ago, who had a great year across three minor league levels last year. I could see Alvarez here in June or July after Clement or Jones flame out. Alvarez has a very bright future, and I think he could be the superstar the Pirates are clamoring for, but he is probably at least a year and very possibly two years from fulfilling that role. Hopefully his addition to the line-up mid-season, along with Jose Tabata, another heralded prospect the Pirates picked-up in the Xavier Nady trade, could make games in August and September exciting and interesting after the Pirates are eliminated from contention once again.
Finally, let’s take a look at the third and sometimes overlooked aspect of the game, fielding. As we move further away from the steroid era, teams have begun putting a renewed emphasis on fielding. New metrics have come out to evaluate defensive value and teams such as the Red Sox, Rays, and Mariners have put a strong emphasis on defense with great success. The Pirates biggest difference in their pitching from 2008, when they were downright awful, to 2009, when they improved to a league average staff, was the play of the fielders behind them, especially in the first half of the year. Opponents’ batting average with balls in play (BABIP) was .317 during the 2008 season. (BABIP is defined as all balls hit in the field of play, this excludes strikeouts and home runs.) This number improved to .303 during the 2009 season and was a heavy contributor to the Pirates pitching staff’s fleeting success. This improvement can be almost totally attributable to the Pirates’ defense and with a staff that does not strike many hitters out, defense is of the utmost importance.
The Pirates improved from the 22nd overall defensive team in 2008, according to the UZR metric, to the 7th best defensive team in baseball in 2009. (UZR, or “ultimate zone rating” is the measure of how far above or below average a fielder or team performs in terms of arm, range, double plays and errors.) This improvement, however, included extended play from very fine fielders in Jack Wilson, Freddie Sanchez, Adam LaRoche and Nyjer Morgan, a center fielder who was playing left field. These players, of course, are all long gone and are being replaced by Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby at short, Akinori Iwamura at second base, Jeff Clement at first base and Lastings Milledge in left. Andrew McCutchen has also taken the CF job and Garrett Jones will be the full time right fielder. So how will the defense be in 2009?
Let’s start in the outfield where Milledge, McCutchen, and Jones will get the bulk of the work with Church and Moss/Young being the primary substitutes. McCutchen is a superstar in the making and is an upgrade over McLouth in CF, despite McLouth’s joke of a Gold Glove in 2008. I fully expect the 23-year-old to make the jump this year to being an elite center fielder defensively. Milledge is a fine athlete and makes for a good fit in PNC Park’s spacious left field and Jones, while normally a 1B, is not a total butcher in RF. Both Moss and Church are capable back-ups and the outfield defense should be on par with last season, possibly even better with the maturation of McCutchen and Milledge. Andy LaRoche is back at 3B and should provide the same steady defense he provided last year and Ryan Doumit will be behind the plate, where he is known for his bat and not his glove but is acceptable defensively.
This takes us to the big changes from 2009 to 2010 and that is in the middle infield and first base. These positions are essential with the Pirates pitching staff that does not strike many hitters out and relies on forcing ground balls to get outs. These plays will have to be made if the Pirates are to have any success this upcoming season. While Sanchez and Wilson were a dynamic double play duo, only Wilson stood out as an excellent all-around defensive player. Sanchez was actually much better defensively at 3B and while he did a solid job at second base, he should be easily replaced in the field by Iwamura, who comes with a fine defensive reputation. Ronny Cedeno comes with a big pedigree but it has been his inconsistency and failure to make the routine plays that have stopped him from becoming an excellent defensive shortstop. Crosby was a fine defensive shortstop in his early years, but has lost a step. He can still be an average to above-average defender, however, if he were to win the SS duties out of spring or be forced into action during the season. Neither of the shortstops will replace the fine glove work of “Jack Flash” but both should hold down the position rather well. The Cedeno/Crosby-Iwamura double-play combination will probably not match that of the Wilson-Sanchez duo, but should play well enough to avoid any noticeable slip in the defense. Clement is the wild card in that he has only played a limited amount of first base in his professional career after starting as a catcher. He has a chance to be quite terrible at first base, but luckily for the Pirates if you are going to have a hole defensively the place to have it at is first base.
In total, I do not expect the Pirates defense to match the outstanding year they put together last year, but they should be a far cry from the terrible outfit they ran out there in 2008. I like the defensive potential of McCutchen, Milledge, and Cedeno and expect the defense to improve as the season moves along. The Pirates are not going to win the World Series with this defense, but they were not going to win the World Series anyhow. This leads me right into my forecast for the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates…
Baseball Prospectus, probably the most well known baseball publication and projection outlet there is, has projected the Pirates to win 72 games in 2010. I have read that this kind of analysis often has a standard deviation of about 6 wins, meaning that BP sees the Buccos winning anywhere from 66 to 78 games in 2010. I have also seen a number of other projections that has the Pirates anywhere from 66-73 wins, meaning people are not bullish on this year’s team, and rightfully so. I guess I am a little more on the optimistic side. The pitching depth the team has built and a quality defense should keep the Pirates in their fair share of games and a decent bullpen should allow the Pirates to hold onto leads when they have them. I also think the Pirates will compete hard on a nightly basis, something they did not do over the second half of last season, as guys try to establish themselves as Major Leaguers. I also expect an infusion of both youth and talent in the names of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln at some point during the season. Despite many of the positives in this organization, there is still a talent void overall. I predict the Pirates will go 74-88 and battle the Houston Astros for last place in the NL Central.
Like I have mentioned throughout this preview, the Pirates lack true star power. The difference between a below-average player and an above-average player in the Majors is tiny; the real difference comes when we start comparing good players to great players. The Pirates have had too many of these "average" players and no stars over the past 17 years and it looks like 2010 is no exception. The good teams around league have an Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Manny Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Jose Reyes, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, etc. etc. etc. The Pirates do not have these types of players yet.
Hopefully, however, help is on the way. I have said it before and I will say it again, the Pirates management team is doing things the right way. They are building depth, youth, and a more talented pool of minor leaguers. The question now becomes if they have an eye for that next superstar talent and if they can develop the likes of Alvarez, Lincoln and Tabata. These are the types of players that can push a team over the top and end this horrible losing streak the franchise has endured, one that will reach 18 consectutive years during 2010.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Pirates Preview (Part I)
Warm weather, fielding ground balls, taking batting practice, playing long toss…must mean Spring Training is here. The 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates began full team workouts Tuesday in Bradenton, FL in hopes of ending their streak of 17 consecutive losing seasons. The Pirates will pin their hopes on a group of young guys in the field, a bunch of old guys in the bullpen, and a sprinkle of veterans in the middle of the rotation. Add these altogether and unfortunately for Pirates fans, the recipe adds up to an 18th consecutive losing season.
I have broken up my initial preview to the season into two parts. Part I today will focus on pitching and Part II tomorrow will focus on the line-up and overall forecast for the season.
Baseball begins and ends with pitching and the guys that are going to throw the most innings are the starting rotation. The Pirates have four starters locked into their rotation with Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf and Charlie Morton. The 5th rotation spot looks to be a battle between Kevin Hart and Daniel McCutchen and possibly a dose of Brad Lincoln, the former first round draft choice who could be a mid-season call-up. I fully expect to see the 5th rotation spot taken by Kevin Hart out of spring as the Pirates want to see what they have in the 27-year-old hard throwing righty. The Pirates (as most people around baseball feel) believe that Hart could thrive in a bullpen role but first want to find out what they have in him as a starter and rightfully so. Most teams need 7-10 starters to go through a full season however, so no matter who wins the fifth spot out of spring we can expect to see plenty of the seven aforementioned names and probably a few spot starts from Jeff Karstens and possibly even prospects Donnie Veal and/or Tim Alderson.
The good news is that the Pirates have much more depth in their starting pitching than in years past when they ran bums such as John Van Benschoten, Bryan Bullington, Phil Dumatrait and Yoslan Herrera out there for numerous starts. The bad news is that Pirates still do not have a top of the line starter. They have no bona fide number one and not even a good number two. Sure, Duke, Maholm and Ohlendorf are decent pitchers and many teams would take them on their staff, but nobody is mistaking these guys for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. These guys would fill out the back-end of most rotations around the majors. Brad Lincoln may have the raw stuff, but he has yet to put together a dominating minor league season and is probably a year or two away from even being a meaningful major league pitcher. Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart have yet to put it all together on the Major League level, and even if they are able to they project no better than a #3 or #4 guy.
According to fangraphs.com (a great website for individual player statistics and it is free!) and Bill James’ 2010 player projections, Maholm, Duke, Ohlendorf, Morton, Hart and McCutchen are projected to start 142 games this season. Their projected statistics combined together produce a record of 40-59, a 4.47 ERA, and 608 strikeouts in 899 innings, a measly 6.1K/9 innings rate. These projected statistics are not the be-all, end-all, and players can deviate from the projections both positively and negatively, but they usually do a pretty solid job of averaging out. At the very least, they are a great baseline for projecting a team’s upcoming season. This does not bode well for the Pirates or their starters. Their 4.47 ERA is slightly better than last year’s starters’ 4.59 ERA and would have ranked 9th in the National League, not bad but not good enough unless you have the 1927 Yankees line-up. The 6.1 strikeouts per 9 innings rate shows the glaring weakness of the starting pitching and the true absence of a frontline starter. The number would actually be an improvement over the 5.25 Ks per 9 last year that the Pirates staff put together, but would still rank a dismal 15th in the National League. The name of the game is getting guys out and the easiest way to do that is a strikeout. The Pirates are simply not able to do this consistently enough to give their team a competitive advantage. Combine that with the average at best defense that will be behind them, and the Pirate starters could be in for a long year.
General Manager Neal Huntington did a nice job of putting together a bullpen with the additions of veterans Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly and D.J. Carrasco. Add to the mix Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan (if he returns healthy from an early spring elbow problem) and the bullpen should be somewhere between adequate and above-average. I still do not understand the move of non-tendering Matt Capps as he was still an asset that could have been traded for something at the very least, but the overall performance of the 2010 bullpen should not suffer from his absence. In reality, the performance of the bullpen often comes down to a matter of luck. With such small sample sizes and limited opportunities, the performance of most bullpen pitchers fluctuates from year to year but for a select few. Neal Huntington recognizes this fact, has talked about it, and has approached his bullpen building strategy with this focus in mind. Dotel, Donnelly, Hanrahan and Meek have all put up strong strikeout numbers and should provide a steady influence on the back-end of games. The lack of a lefty does concern me, but the more important aspect is having good pitchers. If, and it is a major if, the Pirates are able to turn leads over to this bullpen, I think they will be in more than capable hands.
Click here to read Part II of my Pirates Preview.
I have broken up my initial preview to the season into two parts. Part I today will focus on pitching and Part II tomorrow will focus on the line-up and overall forecast for the season.
Baseball begins and ends with pitching and the guys that are going to throw the most innings are the starting rotation. The Pirates have four starters locked into their rotation with Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf and Charlie Morton. The 5th rotation spot looks to be a battle between Kevin Hart and Daniel McCutchen and possibly a dose of Brad Lincoln, the former first round draft choice who could be a mid-season call-up. I fully expect to see the 5th rotation spot taken by Kevin Hart out of spring as the Pirates want to see what they have in the 27-year-old hard throwing righty. The Pirates (as most people around baseball feel) believe that Hart could thrive in a bullpen role but first want to find out what they have in him as a starter and rightfully so. Most teams need 7-10 starters to go through a full season however, so no matter who wins the fifth spot out of spring we can expect to see plenty of the seven aforementioned names and probably a few spot starts from Jeff Karstens and possibly even prospects Donnie Veal and/or Tim Alderson.
The good news is that the Pirates have much more depth in their starting pitching than in years past when they ran bums such as John Van Benschoten, Bryan Bullington, Phil Dumatrait and Yoslan Herrera out there for numerous starts. The bad news is that Pirates still do not have a top of the line starter. They have no bona fide number one and not even a good number two. Sure, Duke, Maholm and Ohlendorf are decent pitchers and many teams would take them on their staff, but nobody is mistaking these guys for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. These guys would fill out the back-end of most rotations around the majors. Brad Lincoln may have the raw stuff, but he has yet to put together a dominating minor league season and is probably a year or two away from even being a meaningful major league pitcher. Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart have yet to put it all together on the Major League level, and even if they are able to they project no better than a #3 or #4 guy.
According to fangraphs.com (a great website for individual player statistics and it is free!) and Bill James’ 2010 player projections, Maholm, Duke, Ohlendorf, Morton, Hart and McCutchen are projected to start 142 games this season. Their projected statistics combined together produce a record of 40-59, a 4.47 ERA, and 608 strikeouts in 899 innings, a measly 6.1K/9 innings rate. These projected statistics are not the be-all, end-all, and players can deviate from the projections both positively and negatively, but they usually do a pretty solid job of averaging out. At the very least, they are a great baseline for projecting a team’s upcoming season. This does not bode well for the Pirates or their starters. Their 4.47 ERA is slightly better than last year’s starters’ 4.59 ERA and would have ranked 9th in the National League, not bad but not good enough unless you have the 1927 Yankees line-up. The 6.1 strikeouts per 9 innings rate shows the glaring weakness of the starting pitching and the true absence of a frontline starter. The number would actually be an improvement over the 5.25 Ks per 9 last year that the Pirates staff put together, but would still rank a dismal 15th in the National League. The name of the game is getting guys out and the easiest way to do that is a strikeout. The Pirates are simply not able to do this consistently enough to give their team a competitive advantage. Combine that with the average at best defense that will be behind them, and the Pirate starters could be in for a long year.
General Manager Neal Huntington did a nice job of putting together a bullpen with the additions of veterans Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly and D.J. Carrasco. Add to the mix Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan (if he returns healthy from an early spring elbow problem) and the bullpen should be somewhere between adequate and above-average. I still do not understand the move of non-tendering Matt Capps as he was still an asset that could have been traded for something at the very least, but the overall performance of the 2010 bullpen should not suffer from his absence. In reality, the performance of the bullpen often comes down to a matter of luck. With such small sample sizes and limited opportunities, the performance of most bullpen pitchers fluctuates from year to year but for a select few. Neal Huntington recognizes this fact, has talked about it, and has approached his bullpen building strategy with this focus in mind. Dotel, Donnelly, Hanrahan and Meek have all put up strong strikeout numbers and should provide a steady influence on the back-end of games. The lack of a lefty does concern me, but the more important aspect is having good pitchers. If, and it is a major if, the Pirates are able to turn leads over to this bullpen, I think they will be in more than capable hands.
Click here to read Part II of my Pirates Preview.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Durant and Olympic Updates
• Kevin Durant extended his streak to 29 games of 25 or more points last night with a 36 point, 8 rebound effort in a loss to the Phoenix Suns. The streak is now the longest since Michael Jordan had 40 consecutive games back in 1986-87. What’s more impressive, however, is that was the young Thunder’s first loss in 10 games, and they are 20-9 overall during the streak. Not only is “Durantula” putting up massive points, he is leading his team to victories. The Thunder sit 33-22 overall and are only two games out of a top-4 seed out West and having home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The MVP is probably LeBron’s in a foregone conclusion but Durant, who now leads the NBA in scoring, just might make it a little tougher on voters if he keeps this up.
• Everyone saw or heard about the United States’ 5-3 victory over Canada Sunday night, leaving the entire country of Canada in shock. The game was relatively meaningless in the overall scheme of the Olympic Competition, but set up an unbelievable quarterfinal match-up tonight of Russia vs. Canada. It is unbelievable because these were the two favorites heading into the Games and now one of them will not medal. My prediction is that Sidney Crosby comes up big once again and leads his team to victory tonight.
• The U.S. will take on Switzerland in what looks like an easy victory for the States. The puck actually drops just a bit later today and the U.S. better be sure to not overlook a dangerous Swiss team. One poor performance and Team U.S. will be left packing their bags in this tournament.
• The United States holds a tight lead in the overall medal count with 26 medals, including 7 Golds. Germany is right on their heels with 23 overall medals and the same 7 Golds. The United States has not won the Winter Olympics medal count in 78 years, going back to 1932. With 81 medals still up for grabs, the final medal count should come right down to the wire making every medal that much more important.
Couple of housecleaning notes:
• I am putting the finishing touches on my first thoughts on your 2010 Buccos. Look out for that piece at some point tomorrow. Let’s just say that I am predicting a historical season for the home team.
• I received a few emails asking when my 2010 offseason plan for the Steelers would be coming. The NFL calendar designates March 5 as the beginning of a “new year” so let us stay in line with the NFL, the king in our sports world, and set that day for the release of my 2010 offseason plan. In the meantime, I would like to see the Steelers start by placing the franchise tag on Casey Hampton.
• Everyone saw or heard about the United States’ 5-3 victory over Canada Sunday night, leaving the entire country of Canada in shock. The game was relatively meaningless in the overall scheme of the Olympic Competition, but set up an unbelievable quarterfinal match-up tonight of Russia vs. Canada. It is unbelievable because these were the two favorites heading into the Games and now one of them will not medal. My prediction is that Sidney Crosby comes up big once again and leads his team to victory tonight.
• The U.S. will take on Switzerland in what looks like an easy victory for the States. The puck actually drops just a bit later today and the U.S. better be sure to not overlook a dangerous Swiss team. One poor performance and Team U.S. will be left packing their bags in this tournament.
• The United States holds a tight lead in the overall medal count with 26 medals, including 7 Golds. Germany is right on their heels with 23 overall medals and the same 7 Golds. The United States has not won the Winter Olympics medal count in 78 years, going back to 1932. With 81 medals still up for grabs, the final medal count should come right down to the wire making every medal that much more important.
Couple of housecleaning notes:
• I am putting the finishing touches on my first thoughts on your 2010 Buccos. Look out for that piece at some point tomorrow. Let’s just say that I am predicting a historical season for the home team.
• I received a few emails asking when my 2010 offseason plan for the Steelers would be coming. The NFL calendar designates March 5 as the beginning of a “new year” so let us stay in line with the NFL, the king in our sports world, and set that day for the release of my 2010 offseason plan. In the meantime, I would like to see the Steelers start by placing the franchise tag on Casey Hampton.
Monday, February 22, 2010
What is Pitt's Celing Now?
Pitt won for the third time this year against a top five team, this time beating #3 Villanova 70-65 yesterday at Petersen Events Center. Pitt has the trademark of every good team and that is they keep getting better every time out. One game after playing what I thought was their best all-around performance of the year at Marquette; Pitt topped that performance yesterday in a game that is sure to raise the expectation level of the Pitt faithful.
Jamie Dixon and company won yesterday with their typical suffocating defense and their prowess on the offensive glass. Pitt collected 21 offensive rebounds, eight by Gary McGhee, and used their second chance opportunities to offset a poor shooting day (35% on field goals). There is no need to get into the many details of the game as I am sure most people either watched it or have read about it. Pitt did a great job breaking Villanova’s pressure, running their offense, and limiting the very dangerous guard duo of Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher. Ashton Gibbs had 21 points and Gilbert Brown chipped in 16 off the bench, including a thunderous dunk down the stretch that may have saved the game for the Panthers.
So where does that leave the Panthers and their expectations going forward? For now it is sure to vault the Panthers up in both pools, however meaningless they are, and has moved Pitt into 9th in the RPI standings. The remaining four Big East games are all winnable (at Notre Dame and St. John’s, home against Providence and Rutgers) giving the Panthers an outside shot at the Big East regular season title. I do not think Syracuse loses two more, but Pitt should have secured a two-day bye for the Big East Tournament with yesterday’s win. More importantly, without a collapse in their final four regular season games, the win should leave Pitt with no worse than a #4 seed and more likely a #3 seed in the Big Dance, with the opportunity to earn as high as a #2 seed with an extended run in the Big East Tournament. My guess is that the Panthers win out in the regular season before losing in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament and earning themselves a #3 seed in the tourney.
With a #3 seed, or even a #2 or a #4 seed, expectations are going to be high. Anything less than a Sweet Sixteen appearance would be a major disappointment and an Elite Eight appearance could be reasonably hoped for. That, again, is a long way from where this team looked headed back in December. I am not sure how many different ways to say how great of a coach Jamie Dixon is, but this has truly been his best job of his tenure at Pitt. BUT, there’s always a but right, this team reminds me so much of the Brandin Knight-Julius Page era teams at Pitt. That normally would be a good thing, but in this context it is not.
Come tournament time, when it is one loss and done, who is going to score the basketball for Pitt when things are not going smoothly? Who is going to break another team’s run? Who is the go-to guy at crunch time to get his own shot or create a shot for a teammate? All of these things remain major question marks for the Panthers as the tournament approaches. Yes, this team has a wide variety of options just as the Knight/Page teams did. Yes, Ashton Gibbs is their best scorer and player just as Knight and Page were. But just like Knight and Page, Gibbs is not a great creator and is not great at scoring off the dribble. This has been a recipe for early exits and disappointing losses to inferior teams in the past and I am afraid it could be the path this team is headed for as well. With the right match-ups and Pitt playing well in all facets of the game, I can see a run to the Elite 8, but (there’s that word again) more likely I see Pitt running into a team with a dynamic superstar that Pitt cannot match and going down once again in the 2nd or 3rd round to a team they would normally beat. Here’s hoping I am wrong…
Jamie Dixon and company won yesterday with their typical suffocating defense and their prowess on the offensive glass. Pitt collected 21 offensive rebounds, eight by Gary McGhee, and used their second chance opportunities to offset a poor shooting day (35% on field goals). There is no need to get into the many details of the game as I am sure most people either watched it or have read about it. Pitt did a great job breaking Villanova’s pressure, running their offense, and limiting the very dangerous guard duo of Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher. Ashton Gibbs had 21 points and Gilbert Brown chipped in 16 off the bench, including a thunderous dunk down the stretch that may have saved the game for the Panthers.
So where does that leave the Panthers and their expectations going forward? For now it is sure to vault the Panthers up in both pools, however meaningless they are, and has moved Pitt into 9th in the RPI standings. The remaining four Big East games are all winnable (at Notre Dame and St. John’s, home against Providence and Rutgers) giving the Panthers an outside shot at the Big East regular season title. I do not think Syracuse loses two more, but Pitt should have secured a two-day bye for the Big East Tournament with yesterday’s win. More importantly, without a collapse in their final four regular season games, the win should leave Pitt with no worse than a #4 seed and more likely a #3 seed in the Big Dance, with the opportunity to earn as high as a #2 seed with an extended run in the Big East Tournament. My guess is that the Panthers win out in the regular season before losing in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament and earning themselves a #3 seed in the tourney.
With a #3 seed, or even a #2 or a #4 seed, expectations are going to be high. Anything less than a Sweet Sixteen appearance would be a major disappointment and an Elite Eight appearance could be reasonably hoped for. That, again, is a long way from where this team looked headed back in December. I am not sure how many different ways to say how great of a coach Jamie Dixon is, but this has truly been his best job of his tenure at Pitt. BUT, there’s always a but right, this team reminds me so much of the Brandin Knight-Julius Page era teams at Pitt. That normally would be a good thing, but in this context it is not.
Come tournament time, when it is one loss and done, who is going to score the basketball for Pitt when things are not going smoothly? Who is going to break another team’s run? Who is the go-to guy at crunch time to get his own shot or create a shot for a teammate? All of these things remain major question marks for the Panthers as the tournament approaches. Yes, this team has a wide variety of options just as the Knight/Page teams did. Yes, Ashton Gibbs is their best scorer and player just as Knight and Page were. But just like Knight and Page, Gibbs is not a great creator and is not great at scoring off the dribble. This has been a recipe for early exits and disappointing losses to inferior teams in the past and I am afraid it could be the path this team is headed for as well. With the right match-ups and Pitt playing well in all facets of the game, I can see a run to the Elite 8, but (there’s that word again) more likely I see Pitt running into a team with a dynamic superstar that Pitt cannot match and going down once again in the 2nd or 3rd round to a team they would normally beat. Here’s hoping I am wrong…
Friday, February 19, 2010
TGIF
Nothing beats a Friday and what better way to wrap up the week than with a smorgasbord of thoughts from around the sports world. Yes, I just went smorgasbord on you…
• Last night was an incredible night of sports on TV. We had great college hoops on including Syracuse-Georgetown and Pitt-Marquette among other games. Olympic action was on two different channels including Canada’s shootout game against Switzerland in hockey. Four of the top six teams in the NBA were in action on TNT. I couldn’t flip channels fast enough. I wish every night was like that…then again I would probably be divorced if that were the case.
• Pitt played what I thought was their best all-around game of the season last night with the possible exception of the Syracuse game. Despite getting only two points from leading scorer Ashton Gibbs, the Panthers other four starters scored in double figures and they had solid contributions from Gilbert Brown, Travon Woodall and Dante Taylor off the bench. The Panthers got a host of dunks using dribble penetration (did somebody recommend this just last week!) and pounding the ball down low. If they can continue this, Gibbs should be freed up even more on the outside. The Panthers played great defense as usual and really took it to Marquette giving Jamie Dixon his first win in the Bradley Center.
• With that win Pitt is well-positioned to get a top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Sunday’s game at the Pete against Villanova should tell us a whole lot about Pitt’s chances of making a sustained run in the Big Dance. I will be watching this game with a very close eye on how Pitt can defend great penetrating guards, something that can kill you come tournament time.
• Tiger Woods, as the entire world knows, breaks his silence today in another protected, boring press conference. Blah…let me know when he decides to golf again.
• In Olympic action, the American stars have come to shine as Lindsey Vonn, Shaun White and Shani Davis have all taken home Gold in their respective events. It makes the Games somewhat more enjoyable when you have actually heard of the competitors competing for and winning medals. The U.S. now has a comfortable lead in the medal count with 18 medals (9 Golds), seven more than second place Germany.
• Speaking of making the events more enjoyable; if you want to make it interesting throw a wager down on an underdog in an event and have a rooting interest (if gambling were legal of course). I watched the half-pipe event with my brother who threw a small bet down on Scottie Lago at 10-1 odds. Of course Shaun White was the heavy favorite and put on an unbelievable performance, but that didn’t make it any less fun after Lago had a fantastic run to take the early lead. I never watched a winter event with more enthusiasm. Lago finished with the bronze by the way.
• In hockey action, the U.S. looked solid again posting a 6-1 win over Norway getting a goal and an assist from local boy Ryan Malone. Canada won on a shootout goal from Sidney Crosby and Russia was not as fortunate losing in a shootout against Slovakia. Pool play is not integral to winning the tournament but the U.S. and Canada do square off in an interesting match on Sunday. The winner will receive a bye in the first round of tournament action. Canada and Russia being pushed to shootouts goes to show you that no matter how talented a team is a hot goaltender can be the great equalizer. When tournament play begins and it is one loss and done, the question will be whose goaltender comes up big.
• LeBron James is incredible. He finished last night with 43 points, 15 assists and 13 rebounds for his 27th career triple-double. He also chipped in 4 blocks and 2 steals for good measure. (In case you thought these numbers were inflated by overtime LeBron had 37, 15, 13, 4 and 2 at the end of regulation). For anyone that thinks there is even a debate anymore about who the best player in the world is, get with reality. The only question left for me is whether James enters the debate with MJ himself someday as the greatest player ever.
• The Cavs lost the game 118-116 in overtime to the Denver Nuggets by the way. Carmelo Anthony had a fantastic night himself scoring 40 points including the game winning jumper over LeBron with 1.9 seconds left in overtime. Despite the loss, it was a great day for the Cavaliers who added Antawn Jamison in a trade on Wednesday. Cleveland is my pick to win it all this year and give LeBron his first of what will be many championships.
• Pitchers and catchers reported to Bradenton on Wednesday. Hard to believe baseball has begun when we are buried in three feet of snow up here. Spring brings eternal hope for baseball fans, except those that are fans of the Pirates. We will be talking a lot of baseball in the coming weeks, but for now look out for my initial thoughts on the Buccos in the next few days.
• I do not understand why NFL players get upset when they are franchised. I bring this up in light of Vince Wilfork of the Patriots “slap in the face” comment and Casey Hampton expressing similar feelings. The one year salary that franchised players receive is often equal or close to the amount of guaranteed money they would receive in a longer term contract with the added ability of becoming a free agent again the following year. I think this attitude stems from players not being Nobel Prize winners in economics and their agents feeding them propaganda looking for their own guaranteed paychecks.
• Despite many so-called “experts” feeling as though the Steelers biggest need is offensive line, I could not disagree more. The Steelers are built to win now. Any lineman drafted by the Steelers will not start this upcoming season. There are simply no starting jobs available on the line and despite popular opinion, the line performed quite well last year. I hope the Steelers trade up for a defensive back, the position that could make the most impact on the coming season. If the Steelers stay at number 18, I would be an advocate at taking the best player available as they need depth at linebacker, the secondary and both lines.
• Another teaser alert….I will be back in the next few days with more on the Steelers including what my full offseason plan would be were I to wake up the next day with Kevin Colbert’s job.
• Last night was an incredible night of sports on TV. We had great college hoops on including Syracuse-Georgetown and Pitt-Marquette among other games. Olympic action was on two different channels including Canada’s shootout game against Switzerland in hockey. Four of the top six teams in the NBA were in action on TNT. I couldn’t flip channels fast enough. I wish every night was like that…then again I would probably be divorced if that were the case.
• Pitt played what I thought was their best all-around game of the season last night with the possible exception of the Syracuse game. Despite getting only two points from leading scorer Ashton Gibbs, the Panthers other four starters scored in double figures and they had solid contributions from Gilbert Brown, Travon Woodall and Dante Taylor off the bench. The Panthers got a host of dunks using dribble penetration (did somebody recommend this just last week!) and pounding the ball down low. If they can continue this, Gibbs should be freed up even more on the outside. The Panthers played great defense as usual and really took it to Marquette giving Jamie Dixon his first win in the Bradley Center.
• With that win Pitt is well-positioned to get a top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Sunday’s game at the Pete against Villanova should tell us a whole lot about Pitt’s chances of making a sustained run in the Big Dance. I will be watching this game with a very close eye on how Pitt can defend great penetrating guards, something that can kill you come tournament time.
• Tiger Woods, as the entire world knows, breaks his silence today in another protected, boring press conference. Blah…let me know when he decides to golf again.
• In Olympic action, the American stars have come to shine as Lindsey Vonn, Shaun White and Shani Davis have all taken home Gold in their respective events. It makes the Games somewhat more enjoyable when you have actually heard of the competitors competing for and winning medals. The U.S. now has a comfortable lead in the medal count with 18 medals (9 Golds), seven more than second place Germany.
• Speaking of making the events more enjoyable; if you want to make it interesting throw a wager down on an underdog in an event and have a rooting interest (if gambling were legal of course). I watched the half-pipe event with my brother who threw a small bet down on Scottie Lago at 10-1 odds. Of course Shaun White was the heavy favorite and put on an unbelievable performance, but that didn’t make it any less fun after Lago had a fantastic run to take the early lead. I never watched a winter event with more enthusiasm. Lago finished with the bronze by the way.
• In hockey action, the U.S. looked solid again posting a 6-1 win over Norway getting a goal and an assist from local boy Ryan Malone. Canada won on a shootout goal from Sidney Crosby and Russia was not as fortunate losing in a shootout against Slovakia. Pool play is not integral to winning the tournament but the U.S. and Canada do square off in an interesting match on Sunday. The winner will receive a bye in the first round of tournament action. Canada and Russia being pushed to shootouts goes to show you that no matter how talented a team is a hot goaltender can be the great equalizer. When tournament play begins and it is one loss and done, the question will be whose goaltender comes up big.
• LeBron James is incredible. He finished last night with 43 points, 15 assists and 13 rebounds for his 27th career triple-double. He also chipped in 4 blocks and 2 steals for good measure. (In case you thought these numbers were inflated by overtime LeBron had 37, 15, 13, 4 and 2 at the end of regulation). For anyone that thinks there is even a debate anymore about who the best player in the world is, get with reality. The only question left for me is whether James enters the debate with MJ himself someday as the greatest player ever.
• The Cavs lost the game 118-116 in overtime to the Denver Nuggets by the way. Carmelo Anthony had a fantastic night himself scoring 40 points including the game winning jumper over LeBron with 1.9 seconds left in overtime. Despite the loss, it was a great day for the Cavaliers who added Antawn Jamison in a trade on Wednesday. Cleveland is my pick to win it all this year and give LeBron his first of what will be many championships.
• Pitchers and catchers reported to Bradenton on Wednesday. Hard to believe baseball has begun when we are buried in three feet of snow up here. Spring brings eternal hope for baseball fans, except those that are fans of the Pirates. We will be talking a lot of baseball in the coming weeks, but for now look out for my initial thoughts on the Buccos in the next few days.
• I do not understand why NFL players get upset when they are franchised. I bring this up in light of Vince Wilfork of the Patriots “slap in the face” comment and Casey Hampton expressing similar feelings. The one year salary that franchised players receive is often equal or close to the amount of guaranteed money they would receive in a longer term contract with the added ability of becoming a free agent again the following year. I think this attitude stems from players not being Nobel Prize winners in economics and their agents feeding them propaganda looking for their own guaranteed paychecks.
• Despite many so-called “experts” feeling as though the Steelers biggest need is offensive line, I could not disagree more. The Steelers are built to win now. Any lineman drafted by the Steelers will not start this upcoming season. There are simply no starting jobs available on the line and despite popular opinion, the line performed quite well last year. I hope the Steelers trade up for a defensive back, the position that could make the most impact on the coming season. If the Steelers stay at number 18, I would be an advocate at taking the best player available as they need depth at linebacker, the secondary and both lines.
• Another teaser alert….I will be back in the next few days with more on the Steelers including what my full offseason plan would be were I to wake up the next day with Kevin Colbert’s job.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Leftover Thoughts and News from Yesterday
Here is some more news and thoughts pertaining to yesterday’s talk on the Olympics and the NBA:
• Canada opened their Olympic pool play win an 8-0 win over Norway, generally considered the worst team in the Olympics. Sydney Crosby contributed 3 assists in his first Olympic game.
• Russia and Sweden are considered the biggest threats to Canada bringing home the Gold. Russia opened up their pool play with an 8-2 win over Latvia. Evgeni Malkin had a goal and an assist while Sergei Gonchar did not record any points. Alexander Ovechkin scored two goals and former Penguin Alexei Morozov, serving as the Russian captain, had a goal as well. Yes, that Alexei Morozov, the guy who could never live up to his potential in a Penguin uniform. Sweden opens up pool play this evening against Germany.
• No medals were awarded last night, leaving the medal count the same as yesterday with Germany leading the United States by one.
• The Olympic Games are obviously being played in Vancouver which is in the Pacific Time Zone. This means that action continues on into the late night here on the East Coast. This doesn’t bother me too much as I am generally a night person anyhow and it sure beats when the Olympics are held across the globe and the events you most want to see are in action in the middle of the night (such as the Men’s Basketball Gold Medal game last summer which started at approximately 3am local time).
• Kevin Durant led his Oklahoma City Thunder to another win last night, beating the newly revamped Dallas Mavericks. Durant finished with 25 points, 14 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 assists, extending his 25 points or more streak to 26 games. Durant scored his 25th point with a runner in the lane with about 30 seconds remaining in the game thus avoiding the first ever blog jinx.
• Many of you are probably Bill Simmons (of ESPN.com) fans already. If you are not or do not know who I am talking about, Simmons is a writer for ESPN nicknamed “The Sports Guy”. He is a common sense columnist for ESPN that gives comedic opinions on sports, life and reality TV to name just a few topics. His niche, however, is the NBA. Yesterday, my favorite column of the year of his came out dissecting the trade value of the top players in the NBA. Give it a READ; it will get you caught up on all the players you need to know about if you do not follow the NBA too closely. A certain someone I discussed yesterday just happens to fall in at number 3 as well, right behind Dwight Howard and LeBron James.
• Canada opened their Olympic pool play win an 8-0 win over Norway, generally considered the worst team in the Olympics. Sydney Crosby contributed 3 assists in his first Olympic game.
• Russia and Sweden are considered the biggest threats to Canada bringing home the Gold. Russia opened up their pool play with an 8-2 win over Latvia. Evgeni Malkin had a goal and an assist while Sergei Gonchar did not record any points. Alexander Ovechkin scored two goals and former Penguin Alexei Morozov, serving as the Russian captain, had a goal as well. Yes, that Alexei Morozov, the guy who could never live up to his potential in a Penguin uniform. Sweden opens up pool play this evening against Germany.
• No medals were awarded last night, leaving the medal count the same as yesterday with Germany leading the United States by one.
• The Olympic Games are obviously being played in Vancouver which is in the Pacific Time Zone. This means that action continues on into the late night here on the East Coast. This doesn’t bother me too much as I am generally a night person anyhow and it sure beats when the Olympics are held across the globe and the events you most want to see are in action in the middle of the night (such as the Men’s Basketball Gold Medal game last summer which started at approximately 3am local time).
• Kevin Durant led his Oklahoma City Thunder to another win last night, beating the newly revamped Dallas Mavericks. Durant finished with 25 points, 14 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 assists, extending his 25 points or more streak to 26 games. Durant scored his 25th point with a runner in the lane with about 30 seconds remaining in the game thus avoiding the first ever blog jinx.
• Many of you are probably Bill Simmons (of ESPN.com) fans already. If you are not or do not know who I am talking about, Simmons is a writer for ESPN nicknamed “The Sports Guy”. He is a common sense columnist for ESPN that gives comedic opinions on sports, life and reality TV to name just a few topics. His niche, however, is the NBA. Yesterday, my favorite column of the year of his came out dissecting the trade value of the top players in the NBA. Give it a READ; it will get you caught up on all the players you need to know about if you do not follow the NBA too closely. A certain someone I discussed yesterday just happens to fall in at number 3 as well, right behind Dwight Howard and LeBron James.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Olympic Update
The United States got off to a good start in Olympic hockey today during their first game of pool play. The U.S. won 3-1 over Switzerland, getting 14 saves from Ryan Miller of the Buffalo Sabres. The U.S. also got a goal from Ryan Malone, born and raised right here in Pittsburgh. Sydney Crosby and the Canadian National Team begin pool play tonight against Norway. The United States and Canada will face off Sunday Night at 7:40pm EST in what will be the most anticipated game during group play.
If you have not watched much Olympic action to date like me, here is an article from Chris Chase of Yahoo getting you caught up in what has happened so far: LINK. The medal count currently sees Germany in first with 9 medals (3 gold), the United States in second with 8 medals (2 gold), followed by France with 7 (2 gold), and Canada with 5 (2 gold).
If you have not watched much Olympic action to date like me, here is an article from Chris Chase of Yahoo getting you caught up in what has happened so far: LINK. The medal count currently sees Germany in first with 9 medals (3 gold), the United States in second with 8 medals (2 gold), followed by France with 7 (2 gold), and Canada with 5 (2 gold).
Another NBA Superstar Worth Watching
The NBA kicks off the second half of its season tonight after wrapping up its All Star Weekend Sunday Night. The NBA All-Star weekend is my favorite All-Star gathering of the four major sports. The weekend includes a multitude of events including the famous Three-Point Shootout and Slam-Dunk Contest and is capped off with the actual All-Star Game Sunday Night. I know many people around the country and especially in Pittsburgh are not the biggest fans of the NBA and its All-Star game in particular, but being the hoops junkie I am I love watching the game being played at the highest level.
This year’s game, won by the Eastern Conference 141-139, was dominated by the usual suspects including Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, LeBron James and the game’s MVP Dwayne Wade. Most people have heard of these guys being the superstars they are and their recent gold medal in the Summer Olympics. But there is one superstar that is starting to get the attention he deserves, but is still overshadowed by his laidback demeanor and obscure location in Oklahoma City. This superstar is Kevin Durant. NCAA fans are surely familiar with this name from his unbelievable season three years ago at Texas but believe me when I tell you that his name belongs with the aforementioned guys when we are talking about the great young stars in the NBA.
Durant is 2nd only to LeBron in scoring right now at 29.7 points per game, ahead of the other more famous superstars Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant and Dwayne Wade. What’s more is that Durantala (a nickname for Durant that is catching on) shoots a better percentage from the field than all of these guys except LeBron and has the best 3-point percentage among the top 20 scorers and 2nd highest free throw percentage among the top 20 scorers in the League. This means that Durant is not only dominating games right now to the tune of 30 per night, he is putting up his points more efficiently than all other stars not named LeBron James. Durant is averaging nearly 7.5 rebounds and 3 assists per game as well, making him a great all around player. Roundly criticized for his defense last year, Durant has improved this area of his game as well and has led his team to a 30-21 record at the break despite having its top six players being 26 or younger.
Everyone is familiar with the unique talents and greatness of LBJ, but Durant is unique and special in his own right and we may just be watching something special developing as we speak. The kid, only 21 years old, is 6’9”, long, athletic, has a great handle and an absolutely flawless shooting stroke. Bill Simmons of ESPN wondered a few weeks back if Durant was headed for a 35ppg season on 50-40-90 shooting (meaning 50% FG, 40% 3pt and 90% FT shooting percentages, all of the gold standards). I do not think he is far off in his estimation. Durant has put together 25 straight games of 25 points or more. Only two players in the last 30 years have had a streak this long, Allen Iverson (27 games) and Michael Jordan, who had a streak of 40 games two separate times. Durant will look to continue that streak tonight and enter a territory where only MJ has been. You know someone is headed for greatness when they start reaching streaks and milestones that only Air Jordan has reached. So do yourself a favor and watch Kevin Durant if and when you get the chance. You will thank me one day for giving you the heads up on watching greatness in its development stages.
There has been some talk on the radio and in the blogosphere about Pittsburgh getting a NBA franchise. The talk originated with this column from the Detroit Free Press which mentioned Pittsburgh as a possible destination for the Pistons if they were to leave Detroit: LINK. This is too far-fetched to even discuss at this point (needless to say I would be a big proponent of a team here) and maybe we will tackle it at some point in the future. But for now, if you get the opportunity to see Kevin Durant play on TV, do not pass it up. You could be watching something special in its development stages, just as LeBron was must see TV a few years ago (and still is); Durantala is quickly becoming must-see TV.
This year’s game, won by the Eastern Conference 141-139, was dominated by the usual suspects including Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, LeBron James and the game’s MVP Dwayne Wade. Most people have heard of these guys being the superstars they are and their recent gold medal in the Summer Olympics. But there is one superstar that is starting to get the attention he deserves, but is still overshadowed by his laidback demeanor and obscure location in Oklahoma City. This superstar is Kevin Durant. NCAA fans are surely familiar with this name from his unbelievable season three years ago at Texas but believe me when I tell you that his name belongs with the aforementioned guys when we are talking about the great young stars in the NBA.
Durant is 2nd only to LeBron in scoring right now at 29.7 points per game, ahead of the other more famous superstars Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant and Dwayne Wade. What’s more is that Durantala (a nickname for Durant that is catching on) shoots a better percentage from the field than all of these guys except LeBron and has the best 3-point percentage among the top 20 scorers and 2nd highest free throw percentage among the top 20 scorers in the League. This means that Durant is not only dominating games right now to the tune of 30 per night, he is putting up his points more efficiently than all other stars not named LeBron James. Durant is averaging nearly 7.5 rebounds and 3 assists per game as well, making him a great all around player. Roundly criticized for his defense last year, Durant has improved this area of his game as well and has led his team to a 30-21 record at the break despite having its top six players being 26 or younger.
Everyone is familiar with the unique talents and greatness of LBJ, but Durant is unique and special in his own right and we may just be watching something special developing as we speak. The kid, only 21 years old, is 6’9”, long, athletic, has a great handle and an absolutely flawless shooting stroke. Bill Simmons of ESPN wondered a few weeks back if Durant was headed for a 35ppg season on 50-40-90 shooting (meaning 50% FG, 40% 3pt and 90% FT shooting percentages, all of the gold standards). I do not think he is far off in his estimation. Durant has put together 25 straight games of 25 points or more. Only two players in the last 30 years have had a streak this long, Allen Iverson (27 games) and Michael Jordan, who had a streak of 40 games two separate times. Durant will look to continue that streak tonight and enter a territory where only MJ has been. You know someone is headed for greatness when they start reaching streaks and milestones that only Air Jordan has reached. So do yourself a favor and watch Kevin Durant if and when you get the chance. You will thank me one day for giving you the heads up on watching greatness in its development stages.
There has been some talk on the radio and in the blogosphere about Pittsburgh getting a NBA franchise. The talk originated with this column from the Detroit Free Press which mentioned Pittsburgh as a possible destination for the Pistons if they were to leave Detroit: LINK. This is too far-fetched to even discuss at this point (needless to say I would be a big proponent of a team here) and maybe we will tackle it at some point in the future. But for now, if you get the opportunity to see Kevin Durant play on TV, do not pass it up. You could be watching something special in its development stages, just as LeBron was must see TV a few years ago (and still is); Durantala is quickly becoming must-see TV.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Pens Finish Up Pre-Olympic Schedule
The Penguins finished up their pre-Olympic schedule yesterday with a 4-3 shootout loss to the Nashville Predators. The loss leaves the Pens with 76 points (36-22-4), one point behind the New Jersey Devils, who do have a game in hand, for the Atlantic Division lead. The Penguins sit 4th overall in the Eastern Conference, tied with the Northeast Division leading Ottawa Senators and one point ahead of the Buffalo Sabres who sit in 5th place. The Washington Capitals are the pace setter in the Eastern Conference with 90 points and have all but wrapped up the top seed. As a follow-up from Friday, the Pens were 30-26-6 after 62 games last year for 66 points and were fighting for their playoff lives before ripping off 15 wins in their final 20 games.
The NHL will take a two-week hiatus from action for the Olympic Games in which five Penguins will participate (Orpik for the United States, Crosby and Fleury for Canada, Malkin and Gonchar for Russia). The rest of the team will have time to rest, relax and heal up for the final 20 games and the playoffs. The Penguins are in great shape for another run at the Stanley Cup. The goal for the post-Olympic stretch drive should be to secure that #2 seed, work on the power play and hopefully stay healthy. I would love to see the Pens secure that #2 seed, setting up a potential epic Eastern Conference Final with Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals as well as potentially avoiding the Devils or Capitals until the Conference Final. Regardless of where the Pens finish in the standings, as long as the Pens are in good shape health-wise, Pens’ fans can look forward to another long and exciting playoff run.
The NHL will take a two-week hiatus from action for the Olympic Games in which five Penguins will participate (Orpik for the United States, Crosby and Fleury for Canada, Malkin and Gonchar for Russia). The rest of the team will have time to rest, relax and heal up for the final 20 games and the playoffs. The Penguins are in great shape for another run at the Stanley Cup. The goal for the post-Olympic stretch drive should be to secure that #2 seed, work on the power play and hopefully stay healthy. I would love to see the Pens secure that #2 seed, setting up a potential epic Eastern Conference Final with Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals as well as potentially avoiding the Devils or Capitals until the Conference Final. Regardless of where the Pens finish in the standings, as long as the Pens are in good shape health-wise, Pens’ fans can look forward to another long and exciting playoff run.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
(Not) Excited About the Winter Games
The Opening Ceremonies of the 2010 Winter Olympics took place Friday Night with the games beginning on Saturday. I cannot say that I am very excited for the Winter Olympics. I am looking forward to the hockey tournament as Sidney Crosby plays in his first Olympics on his native Canadian soil with all the pressure in the world on his shoulders to bring home the gold. Outside of hockey, however, I doubt that I will find myself tuning into many live events unless history is at stake. I will catch up on the highlights from Sportscenter, watch some of the events that may have a compelling story or name, but in general, there is not too much that excites me about the Winter Games.
Bob Smizik, whose blog on the Post Gazette website I really enjoy, shares my sentiment and expresses many of my feelings in his short rant on the Winter Games. Check out his thoughts here: Smizik's Thoughts.
Bob Smizik, whose blog on the Post Gazette website I really enjoy, shares my sentiment and expresses many of my feelings in his short rant on the Winter Games. Check out his thoughts here: Smizik's Thoughts.
Great Pitt-WVU Battle
Only one word can properly describe the Pitt-West Virginia game last night; “Wow”! If you did not see the game for yourself I apologize, but I cannot properly do it justice in writing. Pitt erased a 7 point deficit in the final minute of the game, thanks in large part to WVU’s failure from the free throw line and a very costly turnover. West Virginia then rallied in the final seconds of each of the first two overtimes, including a long three by Truck Bryant at the end of the first overtime (why did Pitt not foul in this situation!), until the game was finally decided in the third overtime. My wife and I were actually at the same bar/restaurant that we watched the Syracuse-Connecticut six overtime contest last year in the Big East Tournament and this battle had the exact same feel. It is a shame we had to settle for ONLY three overtimes this time.
Pitt got great contributions from a host of players last night including leading scorers Brad Wannamaker and Ashton Gibbs, but the two who really stood out for me were Travon Woodall and Gary McGhee. Woodall played 31 minutes with Jermaine Dixon fouling out before eventually fouling out himself. Woodall contributed 12 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists and most importantly 0 turnovers. He would have been the hero as well had his fade-away jumper at the end of the 2nd overtime left his hand a split second earlier. If Woodall can contribute like this going forward it would be a huge boost to the Pitt rotation, allowing Gibbs to play off the ball at times as well as getting some meaningful rest during games. McGhee only had 6 points but he was a monster presence down low collecting 12 rebounds and 2 blocks, including a monster one late in the 2nd overtime. I thought Pitt’s defense was shaky for most of the game and overall was not their best performance of the year. However, if they are able to get contributions from the number of players they did against West Virginia, last night could mark the true turning point of the season.
Pitt got great contributions from a host of players last night including leading scorers Brad Wannamaker and Ashton Gibbs, but the two who really stood out for me were Travon Woodall and Gary McGhee. Woodall played 31 minutes with Jermaine Dixon fouling out before eventually fouling out himself. Woodall contributed 12 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists and most importantly 0 turnovers. He would have been the hero as well had his fade-away jumper at the end of the 2nd overtime left his hand a split second earlier. If Woodall can contribute like this going forward it would be a huge boost to the Pitt rotation, allowing Gibbs to play off the ball at times as well as getting some meaningful rest during games. McGhee only had 6 points but he was a monster presence down low collecting 12 rebounds and 2 blocks, including a monster one late in the 2nd overtime. I thought Pitt’s defense was shaky for most of the game and overall was not their best performance of the year. However, if they are able to get contributions from the number of players they did against West Virginia, last night could mark the true turning point of the season.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Pens in Position to Defend Cup
The Penguins defeated the Islanders 3-1 on Wednesday night, moving within one point of the division leading New Jersey Devils. It looked like an awfully familiar game for the Penguins who played well for 60 minutes, got a great game from Marc Andre-Fleury, saw Evgeni Malkin extend his point streak to 11 games and got secondary scoring in the form of two goals from Chris Kunitz. It should look familiar because it was similar to many of the playoff games from last year and just bolstered my opinion that the Pens are going to be the favorite in the Eastern Conference once the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin.
You may have noticed a general lack of Penguins talk so far on the blog and with good reason. To me, the first 40-50 games of the NHL regular season are almost meaningless. They are like the NFL preseason in many respects. You want to see your stars play well, work on your special teams, get an idea of where your strengths and weaknesses are and win as many games as possible to put yourself in position for the stretch run. I know that every Penguins game is life and death for many Penguins fans. It is actually kind of annoying to me, especially when you want to head to a local establishment on a Thursday night or Saturday during college football season to catch some of the gridiron action and you cannot get a game on TV because Pens fans are treating the 10th game of the regular season like it’s the Stanley Cup. If you listen to the talk radio stations, between the lack of goal scoring wingers and problems with the power play, this team has no shot to win the Cup again. How easy people forget that just last year around this time the Pens were in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, going through a coaching change and looked all but worn out from their run to the Finals the year before. We all know how that ended and it should be slammed into the minds of Penguins fans throughout Pittsburgh. The regular season, and especially the games played before the trade deadline are almost meaningless. The Penguins won the Cup from the 4th seed last year and are positioned to be no worse than that this year. Let’s stop complaining about the small deficiencies this team has and focus on why I think they are once again the favorites in the Eastern Conference.
The Penguins are much the same team as last year when they won the Stanley Cup. They are great down the middle with Sidney Crosby, Malkin, Jordan Staal and Fleury in net. They are once again excellent on the penalty kill, something that cannot be understated in the postseason, led by possibly the best penalty killer in the game in Staal. They have essentially the same line combinations as they did during their run to the Cup last year, including what I suspect will have Talbot on the Malkin line again come playoff time. (For the record, my guess for the postseason lines will once again be Crosby-Guerin-Kunitz, Malkin-Talbot-Fedotenko, Staal-Kennedy-Cooke and Adams-Dupuis-Rupp with Crosby and Malkin often double shifting on that fourth line. This also assumes Shero does not pick up another winger. If he is able to, I suspect Dupuis will be the odd man out most nights if the team is healthy.) The one big difference is the loss of the Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill defensive pairing that played so well in the playoffs last year. They are replaced this year by young and less experienced defensemen Alex Goligoski and Kris Letang, two players who are better known for their offensive repertoire than their defensive prowess. The lack of a defensive defenseman and the struggles of Goligoski have the talk-show callers up in arms. I agree, a mobile defensive defenseman would be a great help to this team but in the age of the salary cap, sacrifices are going to have to be made.
This is where General Manager Ray Shero comes into play. In the past two years Shero has proven he can identify the strengths and weaknesses of his team properly and make the necessary moves to address them at the trade deadline (this year it is March 3rd). Two years ago it was the acquisition of Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis and Hal Gill, last year it was the additions of Kunitz, Guerin and Craig Adams. This year I suspect Shero will be in the market for that defenseman the Penguins are looking for as well as a potential goal scoring winger, one that preferably is a rental on the last year of a contract. Ray Whitney of the Carolina Hurricanes has been rumored as the latter; many names have been tossed about as the former. The Penguins are very tight against the cap, however, and likewise do not want to part with any of their young assets. I expect Shero to come through with a couple of subtle moves addressing the team’s holes, but even if he is unable to pull the trigger, that does not change my mind on the direction of this team.
That direction is pointed right at another Stanley Cup. With two of the games three greatest superstars, as well as a proven big game goalie, there’s no team in the NHL that is more ready to face the grind of the Stanley Cup playoffs than the Penguins are. After winning the Cup, many teams sort of coast through the regular season, saving themselves for the playoffs and knowing exactly how to turn it on once the real games begin. I suspect that is exactly what the Penguins are doing and I expect them to kick it into high gear after the Olympic break for the stretch run leading up and into the playoffs. People want to focus on the small holes the Penguins have, but those holes are much less pivotal than the holes their biggest competition in the East, the Devils and the Washington Capitals, have. The Capitals, despite all the offensive firepower, lack a big-time goalie or a strong defensive core to support whoever they end up going with for the playoffs. Case in point, the Capitals have given up 16 goals in their last three games. Further, other than Ovechkin, the rest of the Capitals “stars” have far from proven themselves on the biggest stage. If you do not have a big-time goalie, I do not like your chances against Sid and Geno. As for the Devils, they do have the big time goalie, but their lack of firepower, even with the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, does not even come close to matching that of the Penguins. They are currently seventh in goals out of the eight teams that would currently make the playoffs in the East. It is true that they have owned the Penguins thus far in the regular season, but once again I do not put much stock into those games. The Pens have the firepower to put up enough goals against Brodeur that the Devils will not be able to match.
The biggest obstacle to the Penguins reaching the Finals again would be health. An injury to one of the stars is always a possibility in the grueling Stanley Cup playoffs, even more so in a year where six Penguins will participate in an extra 6-8 highly intense Olympic Games. In the end, however, I suspect more of the same from the Penguins in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I expect Fleury to once again raise his level of play in the playoffs. I expect Jordan Staal to continue being the great two way player he is. I expect Malkin to continue being the dynamic offensive force he was in last year’s Finals. Finally, I expect Crosby to carry his team once again, proving why he is the best player in the world right now, to another Stanley Cup Final.
You may have noticed a general lack of Penguins talk so far on the blog and with good reason. To me, the first 40-50 games of the NHL regular season are almost meaningless. They are like the NFL preseason in many respects. You want to see your stars play well, work on your special teams, get an idea of where your strengths and weaknesses are and win as many games as possible to put yourself in position for the stretch run. I know that every Penguins game is life and death for many Penguins fans. It is actually kind of annoying to me, especially when you want to head to a local establishment on a Thursday night or Saturday during college football season to catch some of the gridiron action and you cannot get a game on TV because Pens fans are treating the 10th game of the regular season like it’s the Stanley Cup. If you listen to the talk radio stations, between the lack of goal scoring wingers and problems with the power play, this team has no shot to win the Cup again. How easy people forget that just last year around this time the Pens were in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, going through a coaching change and looked all but worn out from their run to the Finals the year before. We all know how that ended and it should be slammed into the minds of Penguins fans throughout Pittsburgh. The regular season, and especially the games played before the trade deadline are almost meaningless. The Penguins won the Cup from the 4th seed last year and are positioned to be no worse than that this year. Let’s stop complaining about the small deficiencies this team has and focus on why I think they are once again the favorites in the Eastern Conference.
The Penguins are much the same team as last year when they won the Stanley Cup. They are great down the middle with Sidney Crosby, Malkin, Jordan Staal and Fleury in net. They are once again excellent on the penalty kill, something that cannot be understated in the postseason, led by possibly the best penalty killer in the game in Staal. They have essentially the same line combinations as they did during their run to the Cup last year, including what I suspect will have Talbot on the Malkin line again come playoff time. (For the record, my guess for the postseason lines will once again be Crosby-Guerin-Kunitz, Malkin-Talbot-Fedotenko, Staal-Kennedy-Cooke and Adams-Dupuis-Rupp with Crosby and Malkin often double shifting on that fourth line. This also assumes Shero does not pick up another winger. If he is able to, I suspect Dupuis will be the odd man out most nights if the team is healthy.) The one big difference is the loss of the Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill defensive pairing that played so well in the playoffs last year. They are replaced this year by young and less experienced defensemen Alex Goligoski and Kris Letang, two players who are better known for their offensive repertoire than their defensive prowess. The lack of a defensive defenseman and the struggles of Goligoski have the talk-show callers up in arms. I agree, a mobile defensive defenseman would be a great help to this team but in the age of the salary cap, sacrifices are going to have to be made.
This is where General Manager Ray Shero comes into play. In the past two years Shero has proven he can identify the strengths and weaknesses of his team properly and make the necessary moves to address them at the trade deadline (this year it is March 3rd). Two years ago it was the acquisition of Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis and Hal Gill, last year it was the additions of Kunitz, Guerin and Craig Adams. This year I suspect Shero will be in the market for that defenseman the Penguins are looking for as well as a potential goal scoring winger, one that preferably is a rental on the last year of a contract. Ray Whitney of the Carolina Hurricanes has been rumored as the latter; many names have been tossed about as the former. The Penguins are very tight against the cap, however, and likewise do not want to part with any of their young assets. I expect Shero to come through with a couple of subtle moves addressing the team’s holes, but even if he is unable to pull the trigger, that does not change my mind on the direction of this team.
That direction is pointed right at another Stanley Cup. With two of the games three greatest superstars, as well as a proven big game goalie, there’s no team in the NHL that is more ready to face the grind of the Stanley Cup playoffs than the Penguins are. After winning the Cup, many teams sort of coast through the regular season, saving themselves for the playoffs and knowing exactly how to turn it on once the real games begin. I suspect that is exactly what the Penguins are doing and I expect them to kick it into high gear after the Olympic break for the stretch run leading up and into the playoffs. People want to focus on the small holes the Penguins have, but those holes are much less pivotal than the holes their biggest competition in the East, the Devils and the Washington Capitals, have. The Capitals, despite all the offensive firepower, lack a big-time goalie or a strong defensive core to support whoever they end up going with for the playoffs. Case in point, the Capitals have given up 16 goals in their last three games. Further, other than Ovechkin, the rest of the Capitals “stars” have far from proven themselves on the biggest stage. If you do not have a big-time goalie, I do not like your chances against Sid and Geno. As for the Devils, they do have the big time goalie, but their lack of firepower, even with the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, does not even come close to matching that of the Penguins. They are currently seventh in goals out of the eight teams that would currently make the playoffs in the East. It is true that they have owned the Penguins thus far in the regular season, but once again I do not put much stock into those games. The Pens have the firepower to put up enough goals against Brodeur that the Devils will not be able to match.
The biggest obstacle to the Penguins reaching the Finals again would be health. An injury to one of the stars is always a possibility in the grueling Stanley Cup playoffs, even more so in a year where six Penguins will participate in an extra 6-8 highly intense Olympic Games. In the end, however, I suspect more of the same from the Penguins in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I expect Fleury to once again raise his level of play in the playoffs. I expect Jordan Staal to continue being the great two way player he is. I expect Malkin to continue being the dynamic offensive force he was in last year’s Finals. Finally, I expect Crosby to carry his team once again, proving why he is the best player in the world right now, to another Stanley Cup Final.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Pens Submit Bid for All-Star Game
The Penguins submitted their formal bid yesterday to host the 2011 NHL All-Star Game at their new arena, the Consol Energy Center. As most people know, there will be no All-Star game this year due to the upcoming Olympics, making the 2011 game a highly anticipated event. Pittsburgh is considered the frontrunner for the 2011 game because of their new building and high profile around the league, namely the face of the league, Sydney Crosby. The full story could be found here in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette: www.post-gazette.com/pg/10040/1034599-100.stm.
Think back to a couple of years ago when the political banter around town and the lack of progress on getting a new arena had the Penguins flirting with relocation, particularly with Kansas City and their new arena which was all set to open. The idea of the Pens leaving seemed crazy at the time, and even more ludicrous now. The city, with or without the Penguins, needed a new arena to replace the outdated Mellon Arena. The thought of not building one and losing the Penguins, the marquee attraction and primary tenant for a new arena, was borderline insane. A new arena was needed to attract events such as the All-Star game, the NCAA Frozen Four, future NCAA tournament games, and the NCAA Wrestling Championships among other things that have been mentioned to take place at the new arena. Well the arena is nearing completion, the Pens are hoisting the Stanley Cup, and great events for the residents of Pittsburgh and the surrounding areas are soon on their way. To think, these things could have been non-existent…
You may also have noticed a lack of Penguins talk here on the blog, and that has been with reason. I will do some Penguins talk tomorrow after their game tonight against the Islanders at Mellon Arena. A quick snapshot is that I believe the Penguins are in fine position and once again the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Check back tomorrow for why I have not written more about the Pens and the reasons I think they are still in a great position.
Think back to a couple of years ago when the political banter around town and the lack of progress on getting a new arena had the Penguins flirting with relocation, particularly with Kansas City and their new arena which was all set to open. The idea of the Pens leaving seemed crazy at the time, and even more ludicrous now. The city, with or without the Penguins, needed a new arena to replace the outdated Mellon Arena. The thought of not building one and losing the Penguins, the marquee attraction and primary tenant for a new arena, was borderline insane. A new arena was needed to attract events such as the All-Star game, the NCAA Frozen Four, future NCAA tournament games, and the NCAA Wrestling Championships among other things that have been mentioned to take place at the new arena. Well the arena is nearing completion, the Pens are hoisting the Stanley Cup, and great events for the residents of Pittsburgh and the surrounding areas are soon on their way. To think, these things could have been non-existent…
You may also have noticed a lack of Penguins talk here on the blog, and that has been with reason. I will do some Penguins talk tomorrow after their game tonight against the Islanders at Mellon Arena. A quick snapshot is that I believe the Penguins are in fine position and once again the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Check back tomorrow for why I have not written more about the Pens and the reasons I think they are still in a great position.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Super Bowl Recap
I wanted to release my thoughts on the game yesterday, but I figured I would let my emotions wear off and watch the game one more time from an objective point of view. After watching it a second time, not caring this time about my “interest” in the Colts, I came to the conclusion that I should have stuck to my guns. I should have known this was an even game on paper, the line was inflated and that two of the Colts’ biggest stars were playing on bum wheels. I just could not get over the greatness of Peyton Manning. Well his greatness was outdone by a brilliant gameplan by Sean Payton and Greg Williams, outdone by a brilliant performance from Drew Brees, and outdone by another game where the Colts refused to attack for 60 minutes. Most of the credit for the Saints’ 31-17 Super Bowl victory will and should go to Brees, Payton and Tracy Porter, who had the pick-six to seal the victory, but to me this game was more about what the Colts didn’t do, than what the Saints did.
Let’s start by giving credit where credit is due. The Saints had a masterful gameplan put in place both offensively and defensively. Sean Payton did his normal amazing job of play-calling, called the greatest onside kick in NFL history, and absolutely nailed the sequence of events at the end of the first half.
Quick tangent on that last topic; Many “old-school” football guys were disagreeing with Payton at the time for going for it on 4th and goal at the Colts’ one with less than two minutes to play (I know most of the guys I was with thought he should kick). They would have been killing him had the Saints not gotten a field goal to end the half and eventually lost the game, whether that field goal would have mattered or not. Well I don’t know how to say it without insulting anyone, but that thought is absolutely, 100% wrong. If the Saints kick a field goal there, they cut the lead to 10-6. They then would have to kick-off to the Colts, giving Manning decent field position, two minutes and three time-outs. At that point the Saints would have been happy to hold Manning to a field goal and give the three points right back, with a very real possibility of Manning leading his team down for a TD and an 11 point halftime lead. Going for it gave the Saints the opportunity to tie the game and if they were unsuccessful, it left the Colts in the position to only try and run the clock out. Worst case is a 10-3 deficit at halftime, and that would have been the same as a 13-6 score that most likely would have ensued, at a minimum, had the Saints kicked a field goal. The Saints even got the best case scenario, holding the Colts without a first down and getting a field goal to end the half. It was simply a great coaching decision by Sean Payton. Ok, off of my high horse…
Where was I, oh yes, giving credit to the Saints. Drew Brees was flawless, tying the Super Bowl record for most completions, hitting on over 80% of his passes, and earning an absolutely deserving MVP award. Brees used all of his weapons, stayed patient in the pocket and put every throw where it needed to be. Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey were all major factors in the game and that goes to the credit of a brilliant system masterminded by Sean Payton and run to perfection by Drew Brees. Defensive Coordinator Greg Williams’ gameplan was just as well-planned and well-executed as Sean Payton’s and the Saints’ offense. The Saints defense was able to keep Peyton Manning just a little off guard with their blitzes, even without registering a sack, forcing Manning to throw a few times just a bit earlier than he would have liked. They also forced the Colts to do something that they do not want to do, and that is run the football and sustain long drives (more on this in just a minute). Finally, and like they have done all year, the opportunistic Saints defense made the play of the game, with Porter picking Manning off and taking it to the house, infuriating the Vegas sportsbooks who had to pay out large sums for the defensive touchdown prop bet. In the end, the Saints coached a great game, played a great game, and deserved to win the Super Bowl.
I could end the analysis there and that would be that but the Colts total lack of urgency, in my opinion, is what cost Manning his second Super Bowl ring. I thought they did the same thing against the Ravens, letting them hang around for far too long in a game that should have been over long before. They were doing the same thing against the Jets until they found themselves down two scores. I said it during the Jets game to a friend that the best thing that happened to the Colts was going down two scores. The Colts, and Manning in particular, went immediately into attack mode, said screw the running the game, and stayed there for the remainder of the game. When the Colts get into attack mode, they are virtually unstoppable. Against an offense like New Orleans, the Colts should have been in attack mode the entire game.
The Colts came out in this attack mode against the Saints, scoring 10 early points, and then took their proverbial foot off the pedal. Give the Saints some credit for this as their long drives in the second quarter kept Manning off the field, not to mention a crucial drop by Pierre Garcon, but you could tell with the speed and urgency that the Colts offense was playing with that they were not in full-out attack mode. The Saints dared the Colts to run the football, and the Colts played right into their hands by doing so. Yes they were running it with moderate success, but the Saints gameplan was to force the Colts into 3rd and 4 or 3rd and 5 and try to stop Manning one time per series instead of three times, and the Colts took the bait for much of the game. When the Saints scored to go up 13-10, the Colts went back into attack mode, throwing six of the next nine plays and marching right down the field to immediately answer with a touchdown of their own. We did not see the Colts in this attack mode again until the Saints held a 24-17 lead. Manning, or Wayne, whomever you would like to blame, made the crucial error and it was too late.
Had the Colts been in attack mode the entire game, I’m guessing they win this game by two scores. They fell into an approach through the playoffs of getting ahead and hoping to hold on instead of a let’s score and keep scoring mentality. Without doing much digging into the Colts past playoff failures, my guess is this has been the same problem in many of the playoff lossesthe Colts have suffered. It is the same organizational mentality that refuses to chase the undefeated season. It is a mentality that I can best describe as a lack of killer instinct when it matters the most. But just as Peyton Manning learned from his early 2000s defeats at the hands of the Patriots, here’s betting that Manning learns from this defeat and is right back in this situation once again in the very near future. It’s just too bad that I didn’t realize this before the game!
Let’s start by giving credit where credit is due. The Saints had a masterful gameplan put in place both offensively and defensively. Sean Payton did his normal amazing job of play-calling, called the greatest onside kick in NFL history, and absolutely nailed the sequence of events at the end of the first half.
Quick tangent on that last topic; Many “old-school” football guys were disagreeing with Payton at the time for going for it on 4th and goal at the Colts’ one with less than two minutes to play (I know most of the guys I was with thought he should kick). They would have been killing him had the Saints not gotten a field goal to end the half and eventually lost the game, whether that field goal would have mattered or not. Well I don’t know how to say it without insulting anyone, but that thought is absolutely, 100% wrong. If the Saints kick a field goal there, they cut the lead to 10-6. They then would have to kick-off to the Colts, giving Manning decent field position, two minutes and three time-outs. At that point the Saints would have been happy to hold Manning to a field goal and give the three points right back, with a very real possibility of Manning leading his team down for a TD and an 11 point halftime lead. Going for it gave the Saints the opportunity to tie the game and if they were unsuccessful, it left the Colts in the position to only try and run the clock out. Worst case is a 10-3 deficit at halftime, and that would have been the same as a 13-6 score that most likely would have ensued, at a minimum, had the Saints kicked a field goal. The Saints even got the best case scenario, holding the Colts without a first down and getting a field goal to end the half. It was simply a great coaching decision by Sean Payton. Ok, off of my high horse…
Where was I, oh yes, giving credit to the Saints. Drew Brees was flawless, tying the Super Bowl record for most completions, hitting on over 80% of his passes, and earning an absolutely deserving MVP award. Brees used all of his weapons, stayed patient in the pocket and put every throw where it needed to be. Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey were all major factors in the game and that goes to the credit of a brilliant system masterminded by Sean Payton and run to perfection by Drew Brees. Defensive Coordinator Greg Williams’ gameplan was just as well-planned and well-executed as Sean Payton’s and the Saints’ offense. The Saints defense was able to keep Peyton Manning just a little off guard with their blitzes, even without registering a sack, forcing Manning to throw a few times just a bit earlier than he would have liked. They also forced the Colts to do something that they do not want to do, and that is run the football and sustain long drives (more on this in just a minute). Finally, and like they have done all year, the opportunistic Saints defense made the play of the game, with Porter picking Manning off and taking it to the house, infuriating the Vegas sportsbooks who had to pay out large sums for the defensive touchdown prop bet. In the end, the Saints coached a great game, played a great game, and deserved to win the Super Bowl.
I could end the analysis there and that would be that but the Colts total lack of urgency, in my opinion, is what cost Manning his second Super Bowl ring. I thought they did the same thing against the Ravens, letting them hang around for far too long in a game that should have been over long before. They were doing the same thing against the Jets until they found themselves down two scores. I said it during the Jets game to a friend that the best thing that happened to the Colts was going down two scores. The Colts, and Manning in particular, went immediately into attack mode, said screw the running the game, and stayed there for the remainder of the game. When the Colts get into attack mode, they are virtually unstoppable. Against an offense like New Orleans, the Colts should have been in attack mode the entire game.
The Colts came out in this attack mode against the Saints, scoring 10 early points, and then took their proverbial foot off the pedal. Give the Saints some credit for this as their long drives in the second quarter kept Manning off the field, not to mention a crucial drop by Pierre Garcon, but you could tell with the speed and urgency that the Colts offense was playing with that they were not in full-out attack mode. The Saints dared the Colts to run the football, and the Colts played right into their hands by doing so. Yes they were running it with moderate success, but the Saints gameplan was to force the Colts into 3rd and 4 or 3rd and 5 and try to stop Manning one time per series instead of three times, and the Colts took the bait for much of the game. When the Saints scored to go up 13-10, the Colts went back into attack mode, throwing six of the next nine plays and marching right down the field to immediately answer with a touchdown of their own. We did not see the Colts in this attack mode again until the Saints held a 24-17 lead. Manning, or Wayne, whomever you would like to blame, made the crucial error and it was too late.
Had the Colts been in attack mode the entire game, I’m guessing they win this game by two scores. They fell into an approach through the playoffs of getting ahead and hoping to hold on instead of a let’s score and keep scoring mentality. Without doing much digging into the Colts past playoff failures, my guess is this has been the same problem in many of the playoff lossesthe Colts have suffered. It is the same organizational mentality that refuses to chase the undefeated season. It is a mentality that I can best describe as a lack of killer instinct when it matters the most. But just as Peyton Manning learned from his early 2000s defeats at the hands of the Patriots, here’s betting that Manning learns from this defeat and is right back in this situation once again in the very near future. It’s just too bad that I didn’t realize this before the game!
Friday, February 5, 2010
Super Bowl Pick Time
This is a pretty big handicapping pick for me. Not only is it my first pick on the new blog, it will determine if I have a winning playoff season or not. Right now I sit 5-5 against the spread in the 2009 NFL Playoffs. That does not sound too great, but I am actually quite happy with it after a disastrous 0-4 wildcard weekend. I have rallied back going 3-1 in the Divisional Round and 2-0 two weeks ago in the Conference Championships. You see, not only does this pick determine my post-season success (or failure) this year, it determines my postseason reputation in general. Going back to the 2005 playoffs, the year the Steelers beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, I did the unthinkable and went 11-0 in the NFL Playoffs. I followed that up with NFL postseason records of 9-2, 8-3 and 8-3 versus the spread. I have begun to think of myself as somewhat of a guru when it comes to the NFL postseason. A losing record this year could kill all the mojo I have built up over the past few seasons, even if I am the only one who thinks I have it. I guess that is enough of a dramatic build up, let’s get onto the pick…
Colts 35 – Saints 24
Often times in big games we get an inflated line because of all the “amateur” money that will be bet, and usually this money is bet on the favorite. The Cardinals last season and the Giants two years ago are prime examples. The underdog is 6-3-1 in the past ten Super Bowls. Statistically, and on paper, this looks like a pretty even football game between two great teams. Why am I taking the Colts? I could sit here and make up ten different reasons why. I could tell you that I expect Dwight Freeney to play, and that he usually plays only about 2/3 of the snaps anyhow so the Colts are somewhat used to playing without him. I could tell you that I expect the Saints to play right into the Colts’ hands by blitzing, as the Colts are the best team in the league against the blitz. I could tell you Drew Brees will commit a costly mistake crippling the Saints chances to win the game, something he has done more than the general public realizes he does. But the truth of the matter is that there is only one reason I am backing the Colts and his name is Peyton Manning. I expect Manning to be too good, too sharp and too prepared for the Saints defense to handle. Most of all, I expect Manning to continue down his path towards the greatest QB of all-time. Those that are backing the Saints, I can’t fault you, but I know when I sit back on the couch Sunday with a cold beverage in my hand, I will feel quite comfortable with my postseason reputation in the hands of Peyton Manning.
Colts 35 – Saints 24
Often times in big games we get an inflated line because of all the “amateur” money that will be bet, and usually this money is bet on the favorite. The Cardinals last season and the Giants two years ago are prime examples. The underdog is 6-3-1 in the past ten Super Bowls. Statistically, and on paper, this looks like a pretty even football game between two great teams. Why am I taking the Colts? I could sit here and make up ten different reasons why. I could tell you that I expect Dwight Freeney to play, and that he usually plays only about 2/3 of the snaps anyhow so the Colts are somewhat used to playing without him. I could tell you that I expect the Saints to play right into the Colts’ hands by blitzing, as the Colts are the best team in the league against the blitz. I could tell you Drew Brees will commit a costly mistake crippling the Saints chances to win the game, something he has done more than the general public realizes he does. But the truth of the matter is that there is only one reason I am backing the Colts and his name is Peyton Manning. I expect Manning to be too good, too sharp and too prepared for the Saints defense to handle. Most of all, I expect Manning to continue down his path towards the greatest QB of all-time. Those that are backing the Saints, I can’t fault you, but I know when I sit back on the couch Sunday with a cold beverage in my hand, I will feel quite comfortable with my postseason reputation in the hands of Peyton Manning.
College Basketball Overview
The two weeks between the NFL Conference Championships and the Super Bowl always seems to be the perfect time to catch up on what is happening in college basketball. I watch and follow the first couple months of the season, obviously, but my focus is usually more directed at the NFL and college football. Besides, in today’s game where there are so many early departures and impact freshmen on the top teams, the team you see in November and December usually does not resemble the team you see come March. I see analysts all the time get hooked on a team by their performance in December, or conversely write off a team by their lousy performance in the early parts of the season, only to be asking themselves what happened when the team proves their expectations wrong.
The NCAA Tournament often comes down to match-ups, but right now I see two teams that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the field and both look to be equipped for any match-up. Kansas and Kentucky both have elite guards, NBA ready big-men and athletic, gifted wings to round out their teams. I would give the slight edge right now to Kansas because of the experience of Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, but each team has an X-factor that could put them above everyone. For Kentucky, that x-factor is John Wall. The sensational freshman point guard has lived up to all the hype and looks like the consensus first pick in next year’s NBA draft, but does he have a level we haven’t seen yet? With Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins patrolling the paint, Eric Bledsoe, Darnell Dodson and others running the break on the wings, if Wall can elevate his game even further I am not sure anyone can match up with these guys for 40 minutes. For Kansas, the x-factor to me is Xavier Henry, pardon the pun. You know what you are getting from Collins and Aldrich as well as the Morris brothers, Brady Morningstar and Tyshawn Taylor, but the key for the Jayhawks will be the play of their own sensational frosh. Henry started the season out very strongly but has cooled somewhat in conference play. If Henry can be the dynamic wing scorer he looked like early in the season, there could be another Rock-Chalk-Jayhawk title in the works.
As for some other top teams that have impressed me:
Syracuse – This team reminds me of the Carmelo Anthony championship team, with Wes Johnson playing the Carmelo role. Long and athletic in that 2-3 defense with multiple weapons on offense, this team will be tough come tournament time.
Michigan State – A clone of last year’s runner-up squad, Tom Izzo’s teams are always dangerous come tourney time.
Villanova – A typical Jay Wright team with great guard play, led by Scottie Reynolds, but could be beat if they run into a superior post player.
Georgetown – With the superstar trifecta of Chris Wright, Greg Monroe and Austin Freeman, this team can and will play with anyone. I often wonder if John Thompson III’s system hinders his own talent, however.
Texas - This team has struggled of late, but is still very talented and has a match-up nightmare in Damion James, a 6’7’’ forward that can do it all. Will need their young guards to play well to make a deep run.
Ohio State – Don’t let their record fool you, half of their losses occurred without do it all point guard Evan Turner, who has been the best player in college basketball to date. There’s always one team that makes a deep run on the back of a great player, and Ohio St. could be that team this year.
Louisville – Don’t count this team out as a darkhorse candidate to make a run to the Final Four. We all know how great Pitino has been and this team is still awfully talented with a dynamite post player in Samardo Samuels leading them. If this team gets on track, look out.
Other teams I have liked to date include Kansas State, Wisconsin, Temple, Butler and Siena.
Teams I have not been impressed with:
West Virginia – This is a typical Bob Huggins team that is long and athletic but not built for tournament success. Not enough shooters and undisciplined play could do this team in at some point.
Purdue – This team could make a deep run if it’s presented the right match-ups, but it could also be a short stay if presented the wrong one. The team lacks athleticism and a true playmaker. A healthy Lewis Jackson could be a big plus if he can return from injury.
Duke – Similar to Purdue, this team lacks elite athleticism and a true post threat. The right match-ups could easily have Duke in the Final Four, but just like recent history has shown, the wrong match-up could lead to another quick Duke exit.
Georgia Tech – Besides one miracle run, has Paul Hewitt led teams ever made noise in the tournament…This team is also frontcourt loaded and guards are needed to win come tournament time.
Other teams that I have not been impressed by include Gonzaga, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Clemson and the entire Pac 10.
The NCAA Tournament often comes down to match-ups, but right now I see two teams that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the field and both look to be equipped for any match-up. Kansas and Kentucky both have elite guards, NBA ready big-men and athletic, gifted wings to round out their teams. I would give the slight edge right now to Kansas because of the experience of Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, but each team has an X-factor that could put them above everyone. For Kentucky, that x-factor is John Wall. The sensational freshman point guard has lived up to all the hype and looks like the consensus first pick in next year’s NBA draft, but does he have a level we haven’t seen yet? With Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins patrolling the paint, Eric Bledsoe, Darnell Dodson and others running the break on the wings, if Wall can elevate his game even further I am not sure anyone can match up with these guys for 40 minutes. For Kansas, the x-factor to me is Xavier Henry, pardon the pun. You know what you are getting from Collins and Aldrich as well as the Morris brothers, Brady Morningstar and Tyshawn Taylor, but the key for the Jayhawks will be the play of their own sensational frosh. Henry started the season out very strongly but has cooled somewhat in conference play. If Henry can be the dynamic wing scorer he looked like early in the season, there could be another Rock-Chalk-Jayhawk title in the works.
As for some other top teams that have impressed me:
Syracuse – This team reminds me of the Carmelo Anthony championship team, with Wes Johnson playing the Carmelo role. Long and athletic in that 2-3 defense with multiple weapons on offense, this team will be tough come tournament time.
Michigan State – A clone of last year’s runner-up squad, Tom Izzo’s teams are always dangerous come tourney time.
Villanova – A typical Jay Wright team with great guard play, led by Scottie Reynolds, but could be beat if they run into a superior post player.
Georgetown – With the superstar trifecta of Chris Wright, Greg Monroe and Austin Freeman, this team can and will play with anyone. I often wonder if John Thompson III’s system hinders his own talent, however.
Texas - This team has struggled of late, but is still very talented and has a match-up nightmare in Damion James, a 6’7’’ forward that can do it all. Will need their young guards to play well to make a deep run.
Ohio State – Don’t let their record fool you, half of their losses occurred without do it all point guard Evan Turner, who has been the best player in college basketball to date. There’s always one team that makes a deep run on the back of a great player, and Ohio St. could be that team this year.
Louisville – Don’t count this team out as a darkhorse candidate to make a run to the Final Four. We all know how great Pitino has been and this team is still awfully talented with a dynamite post player in Samardo Samuels leading them. If this team gets on track, look out.
Other teams I have liked to date include Kansas State, Wisconsin, Temple, Butler and Siena.
Teams I have not been impressed with:
West Virginia – This is a typical Bob Huggins team that is long and athletic but not built for tournament success. Not enough shooters and undisciplined play could do this team in at some point.
Purdue – This team could make a deep run if it’s presented the right match-ups, but it could also be a short stay if presented the wrong one. The team lacks athleticism and a true playmaker. A healthy Lewis Jackson could be a big plus if he can return from injury.
Duke – Similar to Purdue, this team lacks elite athleticism and a true post threat. The right match-ups could easily have Duke in the Final Four, but just like recent history has shown, the wrong match-up could lead to another quick Duke exit.
Georgia Tech – Besides one miracle run, has Paul Hewitt led teams ever made noise in the tournament…This team is also frontcourt loaded and guards are needed to win come tournament time.
Other teams that I have not been impressed by include Gonzaga, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Clemson and the entire Pac 10.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Pitt Struggles
Pitt dropped its fourth game in five contests last night after getting badly outplayed by West Virginia down the stretch. The final score of 70-51 makes the outcome look a little worse than it actually was, but Pitt never posed a real threat to win the game in the final 10-12 minutes. The loss left Pitt 16-6 overall and 6-4 in the Big East. If you told most Pitt fans before the season that Pitt would have that record at this point in the season, all but the most optimistic of the bunch would have been thrilled. Further still, if you would have told the Pitt fan base that the team would have that record after the embarrassing loss to Indiana at Madison Square Garden, one that I was a witness too first hand, most fans would have probably called you crazy. However, five consecutive wins to start Big East play, including three impressive road wins over Syracuse, Cincinnati and Connecticut, had Pitt fans dreaming big once again this year. Looking back on those five consecutive wins, only the Syracuse win seems as impressive as it did at the time. This Pitt team is neither as good as it was during their start to the Big East schedule nor as bad as it has been the past five contests. The team has serious flaws, but their overall body of work should have Pitt fans excited for another trip to the Big Dance and a chance to earn yet another high seed with a return to Pitt’s more conventional play. Instead of breaking down the reasons why Pitt lost last night in a tough environment against a very good WVU squad, not the least of which could be contributed to their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers combining for a whopping zero points, let’s look ahead to what Pitt should do to right the ship.
Yes, Pitt was badly out-rebounded last night but that is only the third time this season they have been out-rebounded and I expect Jamie Dixon and his staff to have that corrected by next game. Yes, the defense has also been somewhat vulnerable lately, but this is another area where we all know the Panthers can and will play more soundly down the stretch. To me, the biggest problem lies in their offense. Pitt has no low-post threat, only one feared outside shooter in Ashton Gibbs, and no players that can take over a game by themselves. It is a recipe that does not usually lead to great offense. This was clearly evident early in the season when Pitt was having an extremely difficult time scoring the basketball. However, with Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown back in the line-up the team has more options than it is exploiting. If I was Jamie Dixon, I would be looking to run more isolation and pick and roll plays with Dixon, Brown and Brad Wannamaker. All three guys are excellent penetrators and can take their man off the dribble. Using the dribble-drive to get into the paint would free up outside shots on kick-outs for Gibbs who has struggled recently forcing shots off the dribble and shooting off of screens. The lack of a post presence could also be hidden by getting the ball deep with the dribble instead of the pass. Right now, Pitt is running numerous screens for Gibbs and when that does not work they revert back to their motion offense that has been so successful during the Dixon era. This team does not have as gifted offensive players as some of the past teams, however, and it’s time to adjust to the talent that is here. Brown, Wannamaker and Dixon are all great athletes that could thrive taking the ball to the hoop. If they are able to get into the paint and pass the ball to either cutting big men or kick it out to the open three point shooters, it would make the Panthers a much harder team to guard. It is the same offense that Duke, Villanova and Kentucky use and have used successfully over the years. Pitt does not have the same caliber of athlete at point guard as these other schools, but they have them on the wings and should use this advantage to spread their offense and get better shots.
Whether Pitt uses my proposed strategy or not, I suspect Jamie Dixon will have these guys playing enough defense, out-hustling and out-rebounding teams the way Pitt teams normally do down the stretch. Ashton Gibbs is too good of a shooter to stay in a prolonged slump as well and this team will win enough games to get into the NCAA Tournament. I expect the turnaround to start this Saturday at the Petersen Event Center when Pitt takes on Seton Hall. That being said, I do not expect a long NCAA tournament run unless this team adapts their offense, plays to its strengths and hides some of the serious flaws it does have.
Yes, Pitt was badly out-rebounded last night but that is only the third time this season they have been out-rebounded and I expect Jamie Dixon and his staff to have that corrected by next game. Yes, the defense has also been somewhat vulnerable lately, but this is another area where we all know the Panthers can and will play more soundly down the stretch. To me, the biggest problem lies in their offense. Pitt has no low-post threat, only one feared outside shooter in Ashton Gibbs, and no players that can take over a game by themselves. It is a recipe that does not usually lead to great offense. This was clearly evident early in the season when Pitt was having an extremely difficult time scoring the basketball. However, with Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown back in the line-up the team has more options than it is exploiting. If I was Jamie Dixon, I would be looking to run more isolation and pick and roll plays with Dixon, Brown and Brad Wannamaker. All three guys are excellent penetrators and can take their man off the dribble. Using the dribble-drive to get into the paint would free up outside shots on kick-outs for Gibbs who has struggled recently forcing shots off the dribble and shooting off of screens. The lack of a post presence could also be hidden by getting the ball deep with the dribble instead of the pass. Right now, Pitt is running numerous screens for Gibbs and when that does not work they revert back to their motion offense that has been so successful during the Dixon era. This team does not have as gifted offensive players as some of the past teams, however, and it’s time to adjust to the talent that is here. Brown, Wannamaker and Dixon are all great athletes that could thrive taking the ball to the hoop. If they are able to get into the paint and pass the ball to either cutting big men or kick it out to the open three point shooters, it would make the Panthers a much harder team to guard. It is the same offense that Duke, Villanova and Kentucky use and have used successfully over the years. Pitt does not have the same caliber of athlete at point guard as these other schools, but they have them on the wings and should use this advantage to spread their offense and get better shots.
Whether Pitt uses my proposed strategy or not, I suspect Jamie Dixon will have these guys playing enough defense, out-hustling and out-rebounding teams the way Pitt teams normally do down the stretch. Ashton Gibbs is too good of a shooter to stay in a prolonged slump as well and this team will win enough games to get into the NCAA Tournament. I expect the turnaround to start this Saturday at the Petersen Event Center when Pitt takes on Seton Hall. That being said, I do not expect a long NCAA tournament run unless this team adapts their offense, plays to its strengths and hides some of the serious flaws it does have.
National Signing Day
Yesterday was National Signing Day for college football. This is a pretty big day of the year for college football fans, and pretty much a national holiday down in the South where college football is king. The day does not do too much for me though. Yes, I like to glance at the rankings, and they do have some value and meaning. Recruiting rankings correlate very well with the future results of the schools. I guess it is just hard for me to get excited about players the majority of who are two and sometimes three or four years away from making a meaningful difference on the field. The players who do make a difference as true freshmen are usually covered in more detail than we need to know by the time camp breaks in the fall.
Pitt and Penn State both had fine recruiting years by all measures. Pitt’s class finished 16th according to Scout.com, 33rd according to Rivals.com and had the best class in the Big East according to ESPN. Only Rivals had the Panthers as not being the top class in the Big East, trailing only West Virginia. Kudos to Dave Wannstedt and his staff who continue to bring in strong classes, building depth and setting the program up for the future. Hopefully one of the two QBs in this class develops into the real deal that this team is looking for. Penn State’s class was ranked 9th by Scout, 12th by Rivals, and 11th by ESPN. On all three publications, Penn State had the best class in the Big Ten proving Joe Paterno and his staff can still get the job done on the recruiting trail. West Virginia was ranked 26th by Scout, 19th by Rivals and had the second best class in the Big East according to ESPN. All in all, it has to be considered a very successful year for the local schools in the recruiting wars.
In case you were wondering, the top classes were produced by the usual suspects; Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, USC, Texas, Auburn, LSU. There is a reason these teams are competing year-in and year-out for National Championships and that is their ability to lure in the top high school talent around the country.
Pitt and Penn State both had fine recruiting years by all measures. Pitt’s class finished 16th according to Scout.com, 33rd according to Rivals.com and had the best class in the Big East according to ESPN. Only Rivals had the Panthers as not being the top class in the Big East, trailing only West Virginia. Kudos to Dave Wannstedt and his staff who continue to bring in strong classes, building depth and setting the program up for the future. Hopefully one of the two QBs in this class develops into the real deal that this team is looking for. Penn State’s class was ranked 9th by Scout, 12th by Rivals, and 11th by ESPN. On all three publications, Penn State had the best class in the Big Ten proving Joe Paterno and his staff can still get the job done on the recruiting trail. West Virginia was ranked 26th by Scout, 19th by Rivals and had the second best class in the Big East according to ESPN. All in all, it has to be considered a very successful year for the local schools in the recruiting wars.
In case you were wondering, the top classes were produced by the usual suspects; Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, USC, Texas, Auburn, LSU. There is a reason these teams are competing year-in and year-out for National Championships and that is their ability to lure in the top high school talent around the country.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Big Changes in the Works for Pitt; Pirates
I thought this was the perfect week to launch this blog. Write a story about quarterbacks, a long-time debate among NFL fans, catch up on the NCAA basketball season, do the same for hockey, finish up with the Super Bowl, bing-bang-boom and the blog is off and running. Then big-time rumors started to develop over the weekend about two of Pittsburgh’s marquee sporting attractions. I do not think you can have a Pittsburgh themed sports blog without at least confronting the two big elephants in the room with regards to the Pittsburgh sports scene. Of course the two big elephants are the internet rumors about the University of Pittsburgh joining the Big Ten Conference and the reported offer by Mario Lemieux, Ron Burkle and the Penguins to purchase the Pirates from Bob Nutting and his ownership group. Let’s tackle the University of Pittsburgh decision first…
(One side note: This column is a bit long, so I advise you may want to print it out and take it with you the next time you are taking care of your business.)
First and foremost, let me stipulate that these reports seem false and there is no impending decision, let alone action, of Pitt joining the Big Ten Conference. There are no informed reporters covering the Big Ten or the University of Pittsburgh, nor any major decision makers confirming that these rumors are true. Quite the opposite in fact, with all parties denying any conversations on the matter and most beat reporters reporting that no talks have taken place. That does not mean, however, that this is not a fun topic of discussion. Let me just get it out there in saying that it should be a no-brainer for Pitt to jump at the chance to join the Big Ten Conference. I know that is not going to please many of the Pitt fans, especially the basketball fans, and I know that making such a dramatic move will not be easy, but I see no way that a move to the Big Ten would not be in the best long-term interests of the University.
If the Big Ten were to extend an offer to Pitt, I can only see two scenarios that would get in the way of Pitt accepting. The first, and this is the subjective reason, would be pride. Steve Pederson, the Athletic Director, and Mark Nordenberg, the Chancellor, were instrumental in putting back together the Big East after the departures of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College. No doubt that many sleepless nights, incredible amounts of hard work, and laying a lot of reputations on the line occurred in the reformation of the Big East Conference as a viable BCS Conference in football, a superpower in basketball, and one that worked logistically for all other men’s and women’s sports. The time, effort and commitment these men put in, along with many others in the Big East Conference, would be tough to forget and abandon in such a short period. Do not take this reason lightly, as Pederson and Nordenberg are very bright, dedicated and prideful men that may want to stay and prove that the Big East can become as successful as the Big Ten is already. The second reason, this one being much more objective, would be the costs associated with leaving the Big East as negotiated when the Big East was reformed. I do not pretend to know exactly what these ramifications are, but my understanding is that a severe cost is associated for breaking a school’s commitment to the Big East Conference and therefore making a switch to the Big Ten impractical. Both of these reasons are legitimate, but there are far more outweighing factors that should make the switch a practical one for Pitt.
The reasons for Pitt to jump to the Big Ten are too numerous to detail them all here. Let’s start with the simplest generalization, and that is a move would ensure the best long-term outlook for the University athletically, economically and academically. The economic and academic benefits of a move to the Big Ten (what are they going to call it with 12 teams, the Big 12 already exists!) are quite easy to see and understand. The Big Ten has the largest alumni base out of all conferences, the best television ratings, the highest paying bowl alignments, its own network and more exposure than Pitt could ever dream about in the Big East. The football television share of each Big Ten school is over five times - let me repeat that – OVER FIVE TIMES that of each Big East school. The Big Ten is chalk full of nationally reputable academic schools including Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State, and Northwestern just to name a few. The ability for Pitt to rake in millions of more dollars to apply to the academic side, as well as the increased exposure of the school and its athletic teams would only enhance Pitt’s growing academic reputation. We might all forget why colleges exist sometimes, but the reason all of this is supposed to occur is to provide the best possible education for students.
The move would have great results for the athletic department as well. First, all of the University’s athletic teams would benefit from the increased revenue with better facilities to more scholarships available. This aspect of the move should not go unnoticed, but we all know the only thing people will talk about is the effect on football and basketball, so let’s quickly address those. The football team should be competitive from the get-go under Dave Wannstedt, and his brand of football will fit in perfectly with the brand of football played in the Big Ten. Pitt probably would not compete for the conference title right away, but strong bowl games and competitive rivalries, especially with Penn State, would be formed right away. Yes, overall Pitt would be taking a step up in competition but the increased exposure and revenue generated by the move would allow the team to widen their recruiting base and eventually compete for the title in the Big Ten. On the basketball side, there is no denying that the Big East is the best basketball conference in the country and the tournament at Madison Square Garden is second to none in terms of atmosphere and competitiveness. But the Big Ten is no slouch either. Just in the last decade alone, Michigan State (four times), Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin have all made a Final Four. That’s one thing Pitt has not done in all its greatness during the decade. Yes the Big East Tournament will be missed, but with Pitt joining and improving an already existing strong league, what’s to say that the Big Ten Tournament does not take on a great life of its own. Jamie Dixon mentioned it may be harder to recruit east coast kids playing in the Big Ten but that is a bunch of bull. Kids choose basketball schools based on the coach, and pretty much the coach alone. Yes certain schools have advantages like great facilities and great arenas, but Pitt would lose none of those advantages in the Big Ten. If anything, Pitt would have a leg up in recruiting by having already established ties in the major east coast cities. In the end, there would be some small negative consequences in hoops, but they would be more than offset by all of the positives for the rest of the athletic department.
All in all, if the Big Ten comes knocking on Pitt’s door, I think the University must accept the invite and become the 12th member of the Conference. Look at the bright side though, Pitt fans, you will finally have the opportunity to beat JoePa and the Penn State faithful on a yearly basis. On to the Pirates…
Unlike the University of Pittsburgh story, reports of a meeting between Penguins’ management and the Pirates’ management seem to be absolutely true. This does not mean a sale agreement is in the near-term, and probably does not mean a sale will ever develop. For my money, actually, I would bet that Pitt joining the Big Ten has a much better shot at happening than Bob Nutting selling the Pirates at this point. Again, this does not mean that the discussion is not a fun one to have. Let us quickly get the details of what happened, or what appears to have happened, out of the way.
Dejan Kovacevic, who does a fabulous job of covering the Pirates for the Post Gazette, reported over the weekend that a meeting occurred between Mario Lemieux and Ron Burkle, the principal owners of the Penguins, and Bob Nutting, the Chairman and principal owner of the Pirates. The details of the meeting are coming out somewhat different from each of the sides, but I think it is safe to assume that some form of interest in buying the Pirates was presented from the Penguins ownership group to Mr. Nutting. Whether this interest was in the form of an offer or not is anyone’s guess, but let’s just go on the assumption that Mr. Burkle and Mr. Lemieux are serious about purchasing the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Pirates’ fans would begin rejoicing in the streets if Mario and company were to successfully purchase the Pirates from the Nutting family. I, too, think it would be great for the long term health of the franchise if a new ownership group were to emerge. However, this notion that the Penguins group would spend money and make this team an instant contender is nonsense and not based in reality. The Pirates projected payroll of $35-$40 million this year is just fine by me. It may have taken 14 years to realize a plan was needed to rebuild the organization from within, develop prospects, and add free agents when the time was right, but this plan is now in place and being executed. If the Pirates were to up their payroll to the $70-$80 million range like so many fans are calling for, would that really make the Pirates a contender? Would the additions of Ben Sheets, Jason Bay and Johnny Damon, who would take the payroll into this range, make the Pirates contenders this year? No they would not. They would take the Pirates projected win total from somewhere in the high 60s to the mid 70s, and maybe with a bit of luck they could get to .500, but that is not what I would want to see as a fan. The goal is to win championships, and the only way to win championships in a low revenue city is to develop superstars within and put pieces around them. The Pirates current plan is exactly what is needed to contend in the current economic system. The question is whether Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly are the right men for the job, and only time will answer this.
Mario Lemieux and Ron Burkle are smart men, good business people, and obviously winners both in and out of sports. They would and probably already recognize the plan in place for the Pirates is the competent one. Hell, it is what probably peaked their interest in buying the Pirates four months ago after having never been interested in previous years while the Pirate organization was wondering around aimlessly losing season after season. How do I know the Penguins would recognize this plan…because they have already executed it successfully in rebuilding their own organization. They did not take ownership of the Penguins and start spending immediately. Even after the lockout and a salary cap was in place, the Penguins smartly began building around their young superstars, avoiding the temptation of adding high priced free agents, and maintaining a healthy financial plan. In case Pens and Pirates fans forget, the Penguins did not make the playoffs in Sidney Crosby’s first season and spent nowhere near the cap in the first year after the lockout. After the pieces began to be assembled and the revenues began to increase as the team got better and excitement built around the young superstars, only then did the Penguins’ management team led by GM Ray Shero begin to add the necessary pieces through free agency and trades to put this team on its way to its first Stanley Cup in nearly 17 years. The Penguins had a much easier path towards winning with a salary cap in place, great luck and great drafting, but that does not mean a plan was not in place and executed to perfection.
This is where I think the positives from an ownership group led by Mr. Lemieux and Mr. Burkle come into play. I do think Mr. Nutting and the Pirates have a plan in place currently, but I have no faith that they can execute this plan over the long-term and I am not totally sure they have the intent too. Oh I do believe Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly think they have the support of ownership to carry out the plan, but when the time comes for Bob Nutting to shell out the money to keep his own star players and put the finishing touches around them, I have no confidence he will be willing to do that. I know that Penguins ownership will do what they say, put the necessary money on the line, and have this organization back competing for championships at some point in the future. I do not think Bob Nutting intends to sell, I do not think public backlash will convince him to sell either, as the man seems to be immune to public sentiment, but we can all hope and dream that one day he will. In the instance that he does sell, and if happens to be Mr. Lemieux and company, temper your immediate expectations, but be prepared in dance in the streets at some point again for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
(One side note: This column is a bit long, so I advise you may want to print it out and take it with you the next time you are taking care of your business.)
First and foremost, let me stipulate that these reports seem false and there is no impending decision, let alone action, of Pitt joining the Big Ten Conference. There are no informed reporters covering the Big Ten or the University of Pittsburgh, nor any major decision makers confirming that these rumors are true. Quite the opposite in fact, with all parties denying any conversations on the matter and most beat reporters reporting that no talks have taken place. That does not mean, however, that this is not a fun topic of discussion. Let me just get it out there in saying that it should be a no-brainer for Pitt to jump at the chance to join the Big Ten Conference. I know that is not going to please many of the Pitt fans, especially the basketball fans, and I know that making such a dramatic move will not be easy, but I see no way that a move to the Big Ten would not be in the best long-term interests of the University.
If the Big Ten were to extend an offer to Pitt, I can only see two scenarios that would get in the way of Pitt accepting. The first, and this is the subjective reason, would be pride. Steve Pederson, the Athletic Director, and Mark Nordenberg, the Chancellor, were instrumental in putting back together the Big East after the departures of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College. No doubt that many sleepless nights, incredible amounts of hard work, and laying a lot of reputations on the line occurred in the reformation of the Big East Conference as a viable BCS Conference in football, a superpower in basketball, and one that worked logistically for all other men’s and women’s sports. The time, effort and commitment these men put in, along with many others in the Big East Conference, would be tough to forget and abandon in such a short period. Do not take this reason lightly, as Pederson and Nordenberg are very bright, dedicated and prideful men that may want to stay and prove that the Big East can become as successful as the Big Ten is already. The second reason, this one being much more objective, would be the costs associated with leaving the Big East as negotiated when the Big East was reformed. I do not pretend to know exactly what these ramifications are, but my understanding is that a severe cost is associated for breaking a school’s commitment to the Big East Conference and therefore making a switch to the Big Ten impractical. Both of these reasons are legitimate, but there are far more outweighing factors that should make the switch a practical one for Pitt.
The reasons for Pitt to jump to the Big Ten are too numerous to detail them all here. Let’s start with the simplest generalization, and that is a move would ensure the best long-term outlook for the University athletically, economically and academically. The economic and academic benefits of a move to the Big Ten (what are they going to call it with 12 teams, the Big 12 already exists!) are quite easy to see and understand. The Big Ten has the largest alumni base out of all conferences, the best television ratings, the highest paying bowl alignments, its own network and more exposure than Pitt could ever dream about in the Big East. The football television share of each Big Ten school is over five times - let me repeat that – OVER FIVE TIMES that of each Big East school. The Big Ten is chalk full of nationally reputable academic schools including Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State, and Northwestern just to name a few. The ability for Pitt to rake in millions of more dollars to apply to the academic side, as well as the increased exposure of the school and its athletic teams would only enhance Pitt’s growing academic reputation. We might all forget why colleges exist sometimes, but the reason all of this is supposed to occur is to provide the best possible education for students.
The move would have great results for the athletic department as well. First, all of the University’s athletic teams would benefit from the increased revenue with better facilities to more scholarships available. This aspect of the move should not go unnoticed, but we all know the only thing people will talk about is the effect on football and basketball, so let’s quickly address those. The football team should be competitive from the get-go under Dave Wannstedt, and his brand of football will fit in perfectly with the brand of football played in the Big Ten. Pitt probably would not compete for the conference title right away, but strong bowl games and competitive rivalries, especially with Penn State, would be formed right away. Yes, overall Pitt would be taking a step up in competition but the increased exposure and revenue generated by the move would allow the team to widen their recruiting base and eventually compete for the title in the Big Ten. On the basketball side, there is no denying that the Big East is the best basketball conference in the country and the tournament at Madison Square Garden is second to none in terms of atmosphere and competitiveness. But the Big Ten is no slouch either. Just in the last decade alone, Michigan State (four times), Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin have all made a Final Four. That’s one thing Pitt has not done in all its greatness during the decade. Yes the Big East Tournament will be missed, but with Pitt joining and improving an already existing strong league, what’s to say that the Big Ten Tournament does not take on a great life of its own. Jamie Dixon mentioned it may be harder to recruit east coast kids playing in the Big Ten but that is a bunch of bull. Kids choose basketball schools based on the coach, and pretty much the coach alone. Yes certain schools have advantages like great facilities and great arenas, but Pitt would lose none of those advantages in the Big Ten. If anything, Pitt would have a leg up in recruiting by having already established ties in the major east coast cities. In the end, there would be some small negative consequences in hoops, but they would be more than offset by all of the positives for the rest of the athletic department.
All in all, if the Big Ten comes knocking on Pitt’s door, I think the University must accept the invite and become the 12th member of the Conference. Look at the bright side though, Pitt fans, you will finally have the opportunity to beat JoePa and the Penn State faithful on a yearly basis. On to the Pirates…
Unlike the University of Pittsburgh story, reports of a meeting between Penguins’ management and the Pirates’ management seem to be absolutely true. This does not mean a sale agreement is in the near-term, and probably does not mean a sale will ever develop. For my money, actually, I would bet that Pitt joining the Big Ten has a much better shot at happening than Bob Nutting selling the Pirates at this point. Again, this does not mean that the discussion is not a fun one to have. Let us quickly get the details of what happened, or what appears to have happened, out of the way.
Dejan Kovacevic, who does a fabulous job of covering the Pirates for the Post Gazette, reported over the weekend that a meeting occurred between Mario Lemieux and Ron Burkle, the principal owners of the Penguins, and Bob Nutting, the Chairman and principal owner of the Pirates. The details of the meeting are coming out somewhat different from each of the sides, but I think it is safe to assume that some form of interest in buying the Pirates was presented from the Penguins ownership group to Mr. Nutting. Whether this interest was in the form of an offer or not is anyone’s guess, but let’s just go on the assumption that Mr. Burkle and Mr. Lemieux are serious about purchasing the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Pirates’ fans would begin rejoicing in the streets if Mario and company were to successfully purchase the Pirates from the Nutting family. I, too, think it would be great for the long term health of the franchise if a new ownership group were to emerge. However, this notion that the Penguins group would spend money and make this team an instant contender is nonsense and not based in reality. The Pirates projected payroll of $35-$40 million this year is just fine by me. It may have taken 14 years to realize a plan was needed to rebuild the organization from within, develop prospects, and add free agents when the time was right, but this plan is now in place and being executed. If the Pirates were to up their payroll to the $70-$80 million range like so many fans are calling for, would that really make the Pirates a contender? Would the additions of Ben Sheets, Jason Bay and Johnny Damon, who would take the payroll into this range, make the Pirates contenders this year? No they would not. They would take the Pirates projected win total from somewhere in the high 60s to the mid 70s, and maybe with a bit of luck they could get to .500, but that is not what I would want to see as a fan. The goal is to win championships, and the only way to win championships in a low revenue city is to develop superstars within and put pieces around them. The Pirates current plan is exactly what is needed to contend in the current economic system. The question is whether Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly are the right men for the job, and only time will answer this.
Mario Lemieux and Ron Burkle are smart men, good business people, and obviously winners both in and out of sports. They would and probably already recognize the plan in place for the Pirates is the competent one. Hell, it is what probably peaked their interest in buying the Pirates four months ago after having never been interested in previous years while the Pirate organization was wondering around aimlessly losing season after season. How do I know the Penguins would recognize this plan…because they have already executed it successfully in rebuilding their own organization. They did not take ownership of the Penguins and start spending immediately. Even after the lockout and a salary cap was in place, the Penguins smartly began building around their young superstars, avoiding the temptation of adding high priced free agents, and maintaining a healthy financial plan. In case Pens and Pirates fans forget, the Penguins did not make the playoffs in Sidney Crosby’s first season and spent nowhere near the cap in the first year after the lockout. After the pieces began to be assembled and the revenues began to increase as the team got better and excitement built around the young superstars, only then did the Penguins’ management team led by GM Ray Shero begin to add the necessary pieces through free agency and trades to put this team on its way to its first Stanley Cup in nearly 17 years. The Penguins had a much easier path towards winning with a salary cap in place, great luck and great drafting, but that does not mean a plan was not in place and executed to perfection.
This is where I think the positives from an ownership group led by Mr. Lemieux and Mr. Burkle come into play. I do think Mr. Nutting and the Pirates have a plan in place currently, but I have no faith that they can execute this plan over the long-term and I am not totally sure they have the intent too. Oh I do believe Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly think they have the support of ownership to carry out the plan, but when the time comes for Bob Nutting to shell out the money to keep his own star players and put the finishing touches around them, I have no confidence he will be willing to do that. I know that Penguins ownership will do what they say, put the necessary money on the line, and have this organization back competing for championships at some point in the future. I do not think Bob Nutting intends to sell, I do not think public backlash will convince him to sell either, as the man seems to be immune to public sentiment, but we can all hope and dream that one day he will. In the instance that he does sell, and if happens to be Mr. Lemieux and company, temper your immediate expectations, but be prepared in dance in the streets at some point again for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
A Quarterback League
Rex Ryan is a great defensive mind, he looks like he is well on his way to being a pretty good head coach as well, but his statement at the beginning of the playoffs that running the ball and playing defense is the key to winning in the NFL is flat-out wrong. The NFL is a quarterback’s league, and look no further to this week’s Super Bowl for the latest and greatest example. Running the ball is nice, and playing good defense is still paramount to winning, but if you want to compete year-in and year-out in this era you need to have a “franchise” quarterback. Look at the perennial playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders of this decade; Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Eagles, Chargers and to a lesser extent the Giants and Saints. What do all of these teams have in common? You guessed it, a franchise quarterback. Look at the teams that “ran the ball and played defense” over the past decade and you can see a history of ups and downs and early playoff exits. The Titans and Panthers from last year (and this year) could not have proved this point more; and the Ravens over the decade are the greatest example. From being the best team in the regular season to one game and done in the playoffs to entirely out of the playoffs the next year are common themes when you run the football, play good defense, and have a quarterback that doesn’t win football games. Would it surprise anyone if the Jets stumble to a 6-10 record next season after a great playoff run, I don’t think so. It also would not surprise anyone if they use this postseason run as a springboard to 12 wins, but if and only if the growth of Mark Sanchez continues and he inches closer to “franchise” quarterback status, or as they like to call him in New York, “ the Sanchize”.
So why is this the case? Quite simply, the margin for error without a great quarterback is pretty much non-existent in today’s game. Talent across the league has never been better, or more equal. The Steelers won the Super Bowl last season with one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They were able to win the Lombardi Trophy because the difference between the top line and the worst line is not all that great. This is true at most positions in the NFL except for some of your truly elite players that do make a meaningful difference, and most teams have one or two of those guys at one position or another. With the rules set up the way they are emphasizing finesse, passing and big plays, combined with the overall talent parity across the league, the difference in today’s game comes down to the quarterback position. It is true that you can win by playing defense and running the football, but you better avoid fumbles, penalties, and general bad luck that every team experiences over the course of a season. You also better hope that your quarterback plays the best football of his life in the playoffs; otherwise your stay will not last too long. If you wake up tomorrow and find yourself as a NFL general manager, and you want to win year-in and year-out, compete for Super Bowls and Lombardi Trophies, there’s no more important task than finding your franchise quarterback!
While we are on the subject, and because it’s a fun debate the next time you are having beers with your buddies, let’s go ahead and rank the NFL quarterbacks based on their “franchise” status. Quite simply, we are looking at quarterback production over the next 5 seasons, too much can change if we start going out longer-term than this. We will also try to break the QBs into groups where appropriate:
Group 1, The Hall of Famers
1. Peyton Manning – Watching Warner and Favre produce at a high level makes you think Manning can do this well beyond five years. Enjoy Sunday’s Super Bowl as we may be watching the greatest QB ever when it is all said and done.
2. Tom Brady – Let’s give him a pass for this year as he spent his off-season recovering from major knee surgery. I expect him to come back strong next year and for the next few years.
Group 2, On Their Way
3. Ben Roethlisberger – You could argue to flip 3 and 4 on this list, but if the game is on the line with two minutes to go, I want the ball in Big Ben’s hands over Brees’. That gives him the nod for me.
4. Drew Brees – Legitimized his spot here with a trip to the Super Bowl. Could cement his HOF status with a Super Bowl win.
5. Philip Rivers – Rivers has the bad luck of playing in the same conference as the top 3 guys on this list but still only in his mid-20’s and with his late game ability, it would shock me if Rivers is not a Super Bowl champion someday.
Group 3, Something to Prove
6. Donovan McNabb – All that’s left for McNabb to prove is the ability to win a Super Bowl. I think he could accomplish this much easier if he went back to using his legs more like he did in his early days.
7. Aaron Rodgers – I was shocked I had him this high, but Rodgers has undeniable talent and what looks like the perfect demeanor and leadership skills to go along with it. Great poise in the pocket and tremendous skill at avoiding pressure and throwing on the run. I expect big things. He does has a lot to prove in the post-season, however.
8. Carson Palmer – On talent alone, Palmer should be in the top 3. But he has never won a post-season game, feuds with some of his egomaniac teammates and does not seem to have control over his team the way the guys above him on this list do. This may not be his fault, but until he proves otherwise, he may continually drop down this list. He was terrible in the playoff loss to the Jets, and really quite bad the entire second half of the season.
9. Eli Manning – With a Super Bowl under his belt, something to prove may not be the right phrase to describe Eli’s play to this point, but until the younger Manning becomes more consistent game to game I cannot put him any higher on this list. The way he and the Giants played down the stretch this year is inexcusable for a guy that wants to be truly special.
10. Tony Romo – He is slowly but surely coming along. He now seems to have the respect of his teammates, doesn’t allow mistakes to bother him as much, and has ended a decade plus of Cowboys playoff failures. Romo needs to take the next step to the Super Bowl to be considered a truly elite QB.
Group 4, Young Guns
11. Matt Ryan – You could flip Ryan and Flacco and argue it until the end of time, but both of these guys have shown the potential to become franchise guys. Both have also shown the potential to be nothing more than ordinary as well. I would still take Ryan at this point, but I will probably change my mind about ten times over the course of their careers.
12. Joe Flacco – Early in his second campaign it looked like Flacco was ready to make the jump to the next level. He regressed tremendously over the course of the season, however, and especially as more of the offense was placed on his shoulders. Couple this with his team going back to a predominantly run-based attack and winning a road playoff game despite him, not because of him, and that’s why I currently have Ryan ranked ahead of him.
13. Matt Schaub – Schaub has accomplished more than the two guys above him statistically, but has yet to lead his team to the playoffs and still shows the penchant for costly mistakes at the wrong time. He is also a few years older than the two guys above him, leaving him less room to grow. He is still young, however, and should improve while working with one of the most dynamic WRs in the game.
14. Vince Young – All he does is win football games. Well that and lose his starting job to a near 40-year-old who then led his team to the best record in football. VY could move up this list faster than anyone mentioned, but he could also fall backwards just as quickly. Next year will be a critical year for his development.
15. Mark Sanchez – Sanchez was probably the hardest guy to rank on this list. It would be easy to ignore the mostly bad regular season he had and focus only on his great post-season play, but that’s ignoring the facts. I am very interested to see how Sanchez develops over the next couple of years.
16. Jay Cutler – I wouldn’t touch this guy with a ten foot pole to be my quarterback, but I can see what some people like in him. He has a rocket for an arm and an unflappable confidence in his ability. Maybe he should quit throwing interceptions and make the playoffs first before being so cocky.
17. Matthew Stafford – If you have not seen the game winning play against the Cleveland Browns where Stafford plays with his right arm basically hanging there, check it out on you tube. That play alone tells me this kid has a chance.
18. David Garard – Not sure Garard belongs in the young-gun department as he has been in the league for some time now, but he is better than anyone that will appear below him on this list. I like Garard, think he is a solid quarterback, but he is not the “franchise” QB we are looking for.
Group 5, Have Talent, Need Results
19. Jason Campbell – I have always been intrigued with Campbell’s ability going back to his days at Auburn. A side of me thinks he has been ruined though by the lack of stability he has had around him both in the NFL and in college. He played well down the stretch this season, hopefully he can build upon that.
20. Matt Cassel – I still do not know what Cassel can be or will be, but I like the kid’s accuracy and his poise. Let’s see how he does being united with Charlie Weis before making a definitive decision.
Group 6, The Old Guys
21. Brett Favre/Tavaris Jackson – If Brett were definitely playing next year I think I would have the Vikings’ situation about ten spots higher because a great chance to win one title probably trumps that of most guys on this list. Brett’s uncertainty, as well as Jackson’s history, would not leave me feeling too great if I were a Vikings fan.
22. Matt Hasselbeck – I like Hasselbeck, like him a lot actually, but his inability to stay healthy and lack of long-term security does not leave me too confident. The lack of a solid back-up or even a future Seahawks’ signal caller lands Pete Carroll’s new gig in the bottom half of the league.
Group 7, So You’re Saying There’s a Chance
23. Chad Henne – Henne showed some talent, especially the arm, as a starter this year. He still has a long way to go before I can consider him for franchise status, however.
24. Brady Quinn – Quinn, as well as Henne, could probably fall at the bottom of the Young Guns group but neither has done quite enough on the NFL level to give me enough hope. This is probably a do-or- die year for Quinn in Cleveland and he really needs to develop the ability to get the ball downfield with more efficiency.
25. Matt Leinart – It was probably a big disappointment for Cardinal fans to hear Kurt Warner announce his retirement. Lienart still has time to prove he is capable as a NFL QB, but he has done nothing to this point to say that will happen.
26. Josh Freeman – Another guy I guess you could throw on the bottom of the Young Guns group but I just didn’t see enough from him over his nine starts. Yes he had his moments, but his accuracy and his decision making were very poor at times, and those are two traits that are musts to be a franchise quarterback in this league.
27. Alex Smith – Smith did show improvement, finally, when given the starter’s job this season. I think San Francisco is still very disappointed they settled on Smith over Rodgers five years ago.
28. JaMarcus Russell – I do not want to write-off a guy with Russell’s immense physical ability because who knows, one day he might just “get it”. But those chances are about one in a million it looks like.
Group 8, I Don’t Think So
29. Kyle Orton – Orton is probably unfairly ranked this low because the guy does not stink. He simply does not have the ability to be a franchise quarterback. You would be quite happy with him as your back-up, and right now he is probably better than at least 10 guys above him on this list. We know exactly what he is, however, and that is not a franchise type guy.
30. Jake Delhomme – Put the nail in his coffin. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, the team still owes him a ton of money and it would not surprise me if he is the starter again next year. Matt Moore would not excite me very much either if I were John Fox.
31. Marc Bulger/Keith Null/Rams QB – The last two teams were easy because both will probably have a new starting quarterback next year whether that is Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford or Michael Vick. I ranked the Rams ahead of the Bills because I think they are the more likely destination for Vick, who probably has at least 2-3 years of good play left in his well rested body.
32. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Trent Edwards/Bills QB – Time to start searching for a new guy, whether that is Clausen, Bradford or another rookie from this year’s draft.
So why is this the case? Quite simply, the margin for error without a great quarterback is pretty much non-existent in today’s game. Talent across the league has never been better, or more equal. The Steelers won the Super Bowl last season with one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They were able to win the Lombardi Trophy because the difference between the top line and the worst line is not all that great. This is true at most positions in the NFL except for some of your truly elite players that do make a meaningful difference, and most teams have one or two of those guys at one position or another. With the rules set up the way they are emphasizing finesse, passing and big plays, combined with the overall talent parity across the league, the difference in today’s game comes down to the quarterback position. It is true that you can win by playing defense and running the football, but you better avoid fumbles, penalties, and general bad luck that every team experiences over the course of a season. You also better hope that your quarterback plays the best football of his life in the playoffs; otherwise your stay will not last too long. If you wake up tomorrow and find yourself as a NFL general manager, and you want to win year-in and year-out, compete for Super Bowls and Lombardi Trophies, there’s no more important task than finding your franchise quarterback!
While we are on the subject, and because it’s a fun debate the next time you are having beers with your buddies, let’s go ahead and rank the NFL quarterbacks based on their “franchise” status. Quite simply, we are looking at quarterback production over the next 5 seasons, too much can change if we start going out longer-term than this. We will also try to break the QBs into groups where appropriate:
Group 1, The Hall of Famers
1. Peyton Manning – Watching Warner and Favre produce at a high level makes you think Manning can do this well beyond five years. Enjoy Sunday’s Super Bowl as we may be watching the greatest QB ever when it is all said and done.
2. Tom Brady – Let’s give him a pass for this year as he spent his off-season recovering from major knee surgery. I expect him to come back strong next year and for the next few years.
Group 2, On Their Way
3. Ben Roethlisberger – You could argue to flip 3 and 4 on this list, but if the game is on the line with two minutes to go, I want the ball in Big Ben’s hands over Brees’. That gives him the nod for me.
4. Drew Brees – Legitimized his spot here with a trip to the Super Bowl. Could cement his HOF status with a Super Bowl win.
5. Philip Rivers – Rivers has the bad luck of playing in the same conference as the top 3 guys on this list but still only in his mid-20’s and with his late game ability, it would shock me if Rivers is not a Super Bowl champion someday.
Group 3, Something to Prove
6. Donovan McNabb – All that’s left for McNabb to prove is the ability to win a Super Bowl. I think he could accomplish this much easier if he went back to using his legs more like he did in his early days.
7. Aaron Rodgers – I was shocked I had him this high, but Rodgers has undeniable talent and what looks like the perfect demeanor and leadership skills to go along with it. Great poise in the pocket and tremendous skill at avoiding pressure and throwing on the run. I expect big things. He does has a lot to prove in the post-season, however.
8. Carson Palmer – On talent alone, Palmer should be in the top 3. But he has never won a post-season game, feuds with some of his egomaniac teammates and does not seem to have control over his team the way the guys above him on this list do. This may not be his fault, but until he proves otherwise, he may continually drop down this list. He was terrible in the playoff loss to the Jets, and really quite bad the entire second half of the season.
9. Eli Manning – With a Super Bowl under his belt, something to prove may not be the right phrase to describe Eli’s play to this point, but until the younger Manning becomes more consistent game to game I cannot put him any higher on this list. The way he and the Giants played down the stretch this year is inexcusable for a guy that wants to be truly special.
10. Tony Romo – He is slowly but surely coming along. He now seems to have the respect of his teammates, doesn’t allow mistakes to bother him as much, and has ended a decade plus of Cowboys playoff failures. Romo needs to take the next step to the Super Bowl to be considered a truly elite QB.
Group 4, Young Guns
11. Matt Ryan – You could flip Ryan and Flacco and argue it until the end of time, but both of these guys have shown the potential to become franchise guys. Both have also shown the potential to be nothing more than ordinary as well. I would still take Ryan at this point, but I will probably change my mind about ten times over the course of their careers.
12. Joe Flacco – Early in his second campaign it looked like Flacco was ready to make the jump to the next level. He regressed tremendously over the course of the season, however, and especially as more of the offense was placed on his shoulders. Couple this with his team going back to a predominantly run-based attack and winning a road playoff game despite him, not because of him, and that’s why I currently have Ryan ranked ahead of him.
13. Matt Schaub – Schaub has accomplished more than the two guys above him statistically, but has yet to lead his team to the playoffs and still shows the penchant for costly mistakes at the wrong time. He is also a few years older than the two guys above him, leaving him less room to grow. He is still young, however, and should improve while working with one of the most dynamic WRs in the game.
14. Vince Young – All he does is win football games. Well that and lose his starting job to a near 40-year-old who then led his team to the best record in football. VY could move up this list faster than anyone mentioned, but he could also fall backwards just as quickly. Next year will be a critical year for his development.
15. Mark Sanchez – Sanchez was probably the hardest guy to rank on this list. It would be easy to ignore the mostly bad regular season he had and focus only on his great post-season play, but that’s ignoring the facts. I am very interested to see how Sanchez develops over the next couple of years.
16. Jay Cutler – I wouldn’t touch this guy with a ten foot pole to be my quarterback, but I can see what some people like in him. He has a rocket for an arm and an unflappable confidence in his ability. Maybe he should quit throwing interceptions and make the playoffs first before being so cocky.
17. Matthew Stafford – If you have not seen the game winning play against the Cleveland Browns where Stafford plays with his right arm basically hanging there, check it out on you tube. That play alone tells me this kid has a chance.
18. David Garard – Not sure Garard belongs in the young-gun department as he has been in the league for some time now, but he is better than anyone that will appear below him on this list. I like Garard, think he is a solid quarterback, but he is not the “franchise” QB we are looking for.
Group 5, Have Talent, Need Results
19. Jason Campbell – I have always been intrigued with Campbell’s ability going back to his days at Auburn. A side of me thinks he has been ruined though by the lack of stability he has had around him both in the NFL and in college. He played well down the stretch this season, hopefully he can build upon that.
20. Matt Cassel – I still do not know what Cassel can be or will be, but I like the kid’s accuracy and his poise. Let’s see how he does being united with Charlie Weis before making a definitive decision.
Group 6, The Old Guys
21. Brett Favre/Tavaris Jackson – If Brett were definitely playing next year I think I would have the Vikings’ situation about ten spots higher because a great chance to win one title probably trumps that of most guys on this list. Brett’s uncertainty, as well as Jackson’s history, would not leave me feeling too great if I were a Vikings fan.
22. Matt Hasselbeck – I like Hasselbeck, like him a lot actually, but his inability to stay healthy and lack of long-term security does not leave me too confident. The lack of a solid back-up or even a future Seahawks’ signal caller lands Pete Carroll’s new gig in the bottom half of the league.
Group 7, So You’re Saying There’s a Chance
23. Chad Henne – Henne showed some talent, especially the arm, as a starter this year. He still has a long way to go before I can consider him for franchise status, however.
24. Brady Quinn – Quinn, as well as Henne, could probably fall at the bottom of the Young Guns group but neither has done quite enough on the NFL level to give me enough hope. This is probably a do-or- die year for Quinn in Cleveland and he really needs to develop the ability to get the ball downfield with more efficiency.
25. Matt Leinart – It was probably a big disappointment for Cardinal fans to hear Kurt Warner announce his retirement. Lienart still has time to prove he is capable as a NFL QB, but he has done nothing to this point to say that will happen.
26. Josh Freeman – Another guy I guess you could throw on the bottom of the Young Guns group but I just didn’t see enough from him over his nine starts. Yes he had his moments, but his accuracy and his decision making were very poor at times, and those are two traits that are musts to be a franchise quarterback in this league.
27. Alex Smith – Smith did show improvement, finally, when given the starter’s job this season. I think San Francisco is still very disappointed they settled on Smith over Rodgers five years ago.
28. JaMarcus Russell – I do not want to write-off a guy with Russell’s immense physical ability because who knows, one day he might just “get it”. But those chances are about one in a million it looks like.
Group 8, I Don’t Think So
29. Kyle Orton – Orton is probably unfairly ranked this low because the guy does not stink. He simply does not have the ability to be a franchise quarterback. You would be quite happy with him as your back-up, and right now he is probably better than at least 10 guys above him on this list. We know exactly what he is, however, and that is not a franchise type guy.
30. Jake Delhomme – Put the nail in his coffin. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, the team still owes him a ton of money and it would not surprise me if he is the starter again next year. Matt Moore would not excite me very much either if I were John Fox.
31. Marc Bulger/Keith Null/Rams QB – The last two teams were easy because both will probably have a new starting quarterback next year whether that is Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford or Michael Vick. I ranked the Rams ahead of the Bills because I think they are the more likely destination for Vick, who probably has at least 2-3 years of good play left in his well rested body.
32. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Trent Edwards/Bills QB – Time to start searching for a new guy, whether that is Clausen, Bradford or another rookie from this year’s draft.
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