Football is coming to an end and while I had watched a good amount of college hoops already, I really threw myself into the action over the past two weeks beginning to gear up for March Madness. Here are some of my take-aways from the past couple of weeks and the season as a whole:
· The best team I have seen so far is Kansas. With all due respect to Duke and Ohio State, this Kansas team just has the look and feel of a great basketball team, similar to the Florida teams that won back-to-back titles a few years ago. The Jayhawks have size, shooting, guard play, depth, coaching and experience, pretty much all of the ingredients to make a deep run. One flaw that I did see was lackadaisical defense at times. A few teams, specifically in the second half against Texas and the game at Colorado, were given way too many open looks for my liking. If the Jayhawks can shore up the defense and keep teams off the offensive glass, Kansas could be cutting down the nets for a second time under Coach Bill Self.
· The one thing Ohio State has that nobody else does is Jared Sullinger. The freshman phenom probably reminds many Pitt fans of DeJuan Blair, only taller and a better shooter. Sullinger is an absolute beast on the boards and has an excellent feel for the game and touch around the basket. Despite his lack of top-end height, I haven’t seen a player yet that could stop Sullinger. The only problem I have with the Buckeyes, and it's more of a Thad Matta problem who is known to play a short rotation, is the lack of a bench. In the tournament if Sullinger, Buford or one of the other top six guys gets in foul trouble, or injured, they could be in trouble. The Oden/Conley team was fortunate enough to avoid injury/foul trouble on their way to the championship game four years ago.
· It is very hard to judge this Duke team without freshman point guard Kyle Irving. With Irving, the Dukies are every bit as good as the Jayhawks and Buckeyes and maybe even better. Without Irving, the Blue Devils become too reliant on Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score that making another run at a championship could be tough. It will be interesting to see whether Irving, who many expect to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft if he declares, comes back from his toe injury and if he does how effective he can be.
· Kansas, OSU and Duke seem to be in the first tier and then a big group of teams sit right behind them in my make-believe rankings. At the top of this next group, however, is Pitt. This Pitt team is the best team in the Jamie Dixon/Ben Howland era in terms of talent one through ten. They probably do not have anyone as good as DeJuan Blair or Sam Young but their top seven or eight players are all as good or better than the rest of that team two years ago. The Panthers have depth, size, and the best pair of guards in Gibbs and Wannamaker that they have had during Dixon’s run as coach. Sure, the Panthers don’t have a Kemba Walker who can carry them for stretches at a time if the team is not playing well, but players of that magnitude don’t necessarily grow on trees. This Pitt team has a fine shot at making its first Final Four trip under Dixon and anything less than at least an Elite Eight appearance would be disappointing.
· Speaking of Kemba Walker, this Connecticut team continues to fly just a bit under the radar. I know the Huskies have been ranked highly for much of the year, but it still seems like many are waiting for them to fall off after beginning the year unranked. A team coached by Jim Calhoun with that size and that great of a player in the backcourt is a legitimate Final Four contender. I would put this Connecticut team on par with Villanova and just behind Pitt in terms of the Big East pecking order.
· As great as Walker and Sullinger have been, my player of the year would absolutely be Jimmer Fredette of BYU. I watched the BYU-San Diego State game the other night in its entirety and came away extremely impressed with both teams. San Diego St. is long, athletic and extremely impressive on both the defensive end and the offensive boards. The Aztecs feature a potential lottery pick of their own in Kawhi Leonard and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see this team make a deep tournament run. The star of the night, however, was Fredette who dropped 43 points on nearly 60% shooting making a variety of difficult three-pointers and lay-ups in traffic. The game was Fredette’s third 40 point effort of the year (and third in his last four games) and for the year the senior is averaging over 27 points per game while shooting nearly 50% from the field. The rest of this BYU team isn’t great, but they are good enough to hit open shots as a result of Fredette’s game and are going to be a team most of the big boys don’t want to see come tourney time.
· Other teams I have been impressed with or am high on include Texas (very physical inside and have very good guards), Villanova (great guard play as usual), Missouri (force teams to play at their pace), Kentucky (Calipari doing it again with freshmen), Florida State (defense, defense, defense) and Georgetown. The Hoyas faltered there a bit over a 2-3 week stretch but seem to be picking their game back up again. If the Hoyas are playing at the top of their game, they could be right there in the Big East with ‘Nova, the ‘Cuse and UConn.
· Teams that I think are overrated or getting a little too much love include Notre Dame (have looked terrible at times and still too unathletic for my liking), Purdue (too reliant on JaJuan Johnson), Illinois (seen them play four times now, no heart and just awful on the road), Louisville (very dangerous, but overly dependent on the three-ball) and Michigan State. I keep expecting Tom Izzo’s bunch to straighten things out but as evidenced in last night’s loss at home versus a bad Michigan team, something just seems to be missing from this team. I think we have all learned not to dismiss the Spartans too soon, but if they don’t get things turned around in a hurry it could be a short trip to the expanded tournament this year, if they get there at all.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Changing of the Guard?
There are going to be thousands of articles, stories and features covering pretty much every angle of the Super Bowl in the next two weeks that I would rather leave to others. There is one subject that I want to touch on before taking the next week to catch up on other things happening around the sports world before diving into the Super Bowl coverage full throttle next week. That subject is one that I enjoy talking about the most in sports - the quarterback position. In particular, are we seeing a changing of the guard at the top of the NFL’s pecking order?
Sure, Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl just a year ago and Tom Brady just completed what is soon to be another MVP season, but Manning and Brady will be 35 and 34-years-old, respectively, when the season begins next year (I guess at this point we need to start saying IF THE SEASON BEGINS NEXT YEAR). Clearly each has a few great years left in him and if Brett Favre is an example with his career year at the age of 40, maybe even another five or six years of very productive football left. Needless to say, however, both have seen their youth and, most likely, the peak of their physical abilities in the rear-view mirror.
Tom Brady and his Patriots have lost their last three postseason contests, including two of those at home. Peyton Manning owns a career losing record in the playoffs, also suffering defeat in his last two outings. Both have time to add to their unbelievable legacies, and the race to be called to the greatest of all time is still on, but the windows for these all time greats could perhaps be starting to narrow. The Colts look like a team that needs a good amount of roster work to get back to their Super Bowl level of last year. Meanwhile, while it is true that the Patriots look very well positioned for the future, let’s not forget that Brady is already working on one surgically repaired knee and as the Jets playoff game showed, he can be a sitting duck in the pocket.
I am in no way trying to minimize the accomplishments of two, if not the two, greatest quarterbacks of all time. Words don’t do justice to the greatness of the two quarterbacks, and as of today I would consider each of their teams to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites for next year because of them. I am simply stating that we may finally be seeing a changing of the guard as the premier NFL QBs of today. To illustrate…
Ben Roethlisberger is not yet 29 and Aaron Rodgers just recently turned 27. Both are just entering what has become the historical peak years for a quarterback of 28-34 years old, and in Rodgers case he has not even hit that magic number yet.
I have long maintained that Roethlisberger would be #3 on my list of top NFL quarterbacks and it may now be time to start including him in the conversation with Manning and Brady. In seven years, Roethlisberger has now won two Super Bowls with a chance at a third, been to four AFC Championships, is the owner of a 10-2 career postseason record, a 69-29 regular season record and a career passer rating of 92.5, good for 8th all-time. Did I mention that he is only entering what are believed to be a quarterback’s peak years? Did I mention that stats only tell half of the story with Roethlisberger, a guy who keeps plays alive with his legs and always seems to elevate his play when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 19 comeback victories including his best comeback in Super Bowl XLIII?
As for Rodgers, it is still entirely too early to put him on the level of Manning, Brady or even Roethlisberger at this point historically, but it is becoming harder and harder not to recognize the Hall of Fame talent he is working with. On top of that career passer rating list sits Rodgers at 98.4, ahead of legendary names like Young, Montana, Marino and the aforementioned three greats of today. Rodgers play this postseason has been nothing short of greatness and that play, combined with last year’s performance in the shootout loss to the Cardinals, has Rodgers on top of the career postseason passer rating list as well. Rodgers has a long way to go historically to be mentioned in the same breath as Manning and Brady, but it is almost impossible to argue that he is not playing on the same level as those guys today.
In today’s modern era, with linebackers and defensive ends running 4.5 second forty-yard-dashes and defensive schemes becoming ever more complex, it has become almost essential for quarterbacks to make plays with their legs, both running the football and getting outside the pocket to make plays down the field with their arms. No one performs this aspect of the position better than Roethlisberger and Rodgers, not even Michael Vick who is more of a runner than a scrambler. What Brady and Manning have on the young guns in terms of reading defenses and quick releases, Rodgers and Big Ben more than make up for with their play-making abilities. I mention this only as further proof that it is possible a changing of the guard is taking place. We watched Manning and Brady being hit play after play against the Jets who knew where they would be in the pocket, then watched as Roethlisberger made the two biggest plays of the second half by avoiding rushes and getting outside of the pocket. As this era continues to progress, it will become more essential for quarterbacks to have this escape ability, and both Rodgers and Roethlisberger excel in this regard.
At the end of the day, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and are still probably the best two quarterbacks of today. The day is coming, however, that will not be the case and my guess is that this Super Bowl is a preview as to who their two replacements will be as we carry on the argument for the NFL’s best quarterback.
Sure, Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl just a year ago and Tom Brady just completed what is soon to be another MVP season, but Manning and Brady will be 35 and 34-years-old, respectively, when the season begins next year (I guess at this point we need to start saying IF THE SEASON BEGINS NEXT YEAR). Clearly each has a few great years left in him and if Brett Favre is an example with his career year at the age of 40, maybe even another five or six years of very productive football left. Needless to say, however, both have seen their youth and, most likely, the peak of their physical abilities in the rear-view mirror.
Tom Brady and his Patriots have lost their last three postseason contests, including two of those at home. Peyton Manning owns a career losing record in the playoffs, also suffering defeat in his last two outings. Both have time to add to their unbelievable legacies, and the race to be called to the greatest of all time is still on, but the windows for these all time greats could perhaps be starting to narrow. The Colts look like a team that needs a good amount of roster work to get back to their Super Bowl level of last year. Meanwhile, while it is true that the Patriots look very well positioned for the future, let’s not forget that Brady is already working on one surgically repaired knee and as the Jets playoff game showed, he can be a sitting duck in the pocket.
I am in no way trying to minimize the accomplishments of two, if not the two, greatest quarterbacks of all time. Words don’t do justice to the greatness of the two quarterbacks, and as of today I would consider each of their teams to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites for next year because of them. I am simply stating that we may finally be seeing a changing of the guard as the premier NFL QBs of today. To illustrate…
Ben Roethlisberger is not yet 29 and Aaron Rodgers just recently turned 27. Both are just entering what has become the historical peak years for a quarterback of 28-34 years old, and in Rodgers case he has not even hit that magic number yet.
I have long maintained that Roethlisberger would be #3 on my list of top NFL quarterbacks and it may now be time to start including him in the conversation with Manning and Brady. In seven years, Roethlisberger has now won two Super Bowls with a chance at a third, been to four AFC Championships, is the owner of a 10-2 career postseason record, a 69-29 regular season record and a career passer rating of 92.5, good for 8th all-time. Did I mention that he is only entering what are believed to be a quarterback’s peak years? Did I mention that stats only tell half of the story with Roethlisberger, a guy who keeps plays alive with his legs and always seems to elevate his play when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 19 comeback victories including his best comeback in Super Bowl XLIII?
As for Rodgers, it is still entirely too early to put him on the level of Manning, Brady or even Roethlisberger at this point historically, but it is becoming harder and harder not to recognize the Hall of Fame talent he is working with. On top of that career passer rating list sits Rodgers at 98.4, ahead of legendary names like Young, Montana, Marino and the aforementioned three greats of today. Rodgers play this postseason has been nothing short of greatness and that play, combined with last year’s performance in the shootout loss to the Cardinals, has Rodgers on top of the career postseason passer rating list as well. Rodgers has a long way to go historically to be mentioned in the same breath as Manning and Brady, but it is almost impossible to argue that he is not playing on the same level as those guys today.
In today’s modern era, with linebackers and defensive ends running 4.5 second forty-yard-dashes and defensive schemes becoming ever more complex, it has become almost essential for quarterbacks to make plays with their legs, both running the football and getting outside the pocket to make plays down the field with their arms. No one performs this aspect of the position better than Roethlisberger and Rodgers, not even Michael Vick who is more of a runner than a scrambler. What Brady and Manning have on the young guns in terms of reading defenses and quick releases, Rodgers and Big Ben more than make up for with their play-making abilities. I mention this only as further proof that it is possible a changing of the guard is taking place. We watched Manning and Brady being hit play after play against the Jets who knew where they would be in the pocket, then watched as Roethlisberger made the two biggest plays of the second half by avoiding rushes and getting outside of the pocket. As this era continues to progress, it will become more essential for quarterbacks to have this escape ability, and both Rodgers and Roethlisberger excel in this regard.
At the end of the day, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and are still probably the best two quarterbacks of today. The day is coming, however, that will not be the case and my guess is that this Super Bowl is a preview as to who their two replacements will be as we carry on the argument for the NFL’s best quarterback.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Conference Championship Picks
I am going to keep this short and sweet as I know there are only about one million and four different articles, game match-ups and feature stories on the AFC and NFC Championship games that have been written this week. What I can promise you is that there is going to be at least one convincing win this weekend. I say this because every year since 2002 one of the two conference championship games has been decided by two scores or more and in four of those eight years both games have been one-sided. The last four years, however, has seen one convincing victory and one close game decided by seven points or less. I think this trend continues and we see one lopsided victory and one close game. Here are the picks…
New York at Pittsburgh (-3)
Haven’t we been here before? Sanchez is being praised for going on the road and knocking off two supposedly superior teams. Rex Ryan is a defensive genius and Darrelle Revis is the best cornerback in the league. Well that last sentence is true, but this has all the feelings of last year’s AFC Championship Game when the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning ended the Jets’ Super Bowl dreams. Ben Roethlisberger is going to make plays with his feet unlike Manning and Brady were capable of the past two weeks and the Jets defense is going to be pressured in a way they haven’t seen all year. I expect big plays from both the offense and defense in a fairly convincing Steelers victory. Pick: Steelers (-3.5).
Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago
Well if you read the opening paragraph you can probably guess that I think this is going to be a close game. I love Aaron Rodgers, I love the Packers’ offensive weapons and I love that attacking defense, but going on the road against a very good to great Bears defense, playing on terrible field conditions and facing a team that feels like it is us against the world is going to be an awfully difficult task for the Packers. I think this game comes down to the fourth quarter, and I think it is decided by one score. The difference, however, will be Rodgers. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter I have trust in the Packers QB to make a play while I have no such confidence in Jay Cutler. I wish the line in this one was three, but I am going to stick by Green Bay and hope they pull this one out by a touchdown. Pick: Packers (-3.5).
New York at Pittsburgh (-3)
Haven’t we been here before? Sanchez is being praised for going on the road and knocking off two supposedly superior teams. Rex Ryan is a defensive genius and Darrelle Revis is the best cornerback in the league. Well that last sentence is true, but this has all the feelings of last year’s AFC Championship Game when the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning ended the Jets’ Super Bowl dreams. Ben Roethlisberger is going to make plays with his feet unlike Manning and Brady were capable of the past two weeks and the Jets defense is going to be pressured in a way they haven’t seen all year. I expect big plays from both the offense and defense in a fairly convincing Steelers victory. Pick: Steelers (-3.5).
Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago
Well if you read the opening paragraph you can probably guess that I think this is going to be a close game. I love Aaron Rodgers, I love the Packers’ offensive weapons and I love that attacking defense, but going on the road against a very good to great Bears defense, playing on terrible field conditions and facing a team that feels like it is us against the world is going to be an awfully difficult task for the Packers. I think this game comes down to the fourth quarter, and I think it is decided by one score. The difference, however, will be Rodgers. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter I have trust in the Packers QB to make a play while I have no such confidence in Jay Cutler. I wish the line in this one was three, but I am going to stick by Green Bay and hope they pull this one out by a touchdown. Pick: Packers (-3.5).
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Ten Observations from the Divisional Round
1. I have been to pretty much every Steelers home playoff game since 1995 and certainly every one with the exception of maybe one or two since Heinz Field opened and I can say without a doubt that was the best home crowd in Heinz Field’s history. I don’t know if it was the extra 3,000 seats that were added, or if those seats helped to hold some of the noise in on the open end, or the fact those bleachers made everyone sit in their own seats instead of hanging out under the scoreboard, or maybe even just the shell-shock of being down 21-7 at halftime that made everyone explode in that second half, but that was the loudest I have ever heard Heinz Field. It was probably the third best playoff game I have attended behind the two AFC championship game wins, which are altogether different.
2. The difference, as I and many expected, was Ben Roethlisberger once again. That 58 yard bomb to Antonio Brown on 3rd and 19 was an absolute thing of beauty.
3. Gun to my head and I had to win a football game tomorrow, I would still choose Manning, Brady and Roethlisberger in that order, but I would have to think awfully hard about Aaron Rodgers at this point. He’s playing as well as any of those guys right now and is just oozing with ability and confidence.
4. Between celebrating the Steelers win, getting some dinner and getting over to the bar I was not able to see all of the Packers-Falcons game. I think some of the Falcons players probably feel the same way…
5. It was interesting to see what happened to the Bears defense in the fourth quarter on Sunday. Should we ignore Matt Hasselbeck carving up the secondary, chalk it up to the big lead and taking the foot off the pedal or was it showing us something more that we could see Rodgers taking advantage of this week?
6. Jay Cutler won his first postseason game since high school…and you were wondering why the Packers are three point road favorites?
7. As great as Tom Brady is, and he should be in everyone’s top five QBs of all time at the minimum, can anyone think of the great comebacks he has had? I know there have been a few, but it just doesn’t seem like he brings his team back the way you always expect Manning or Roethlisberger to do. Brady seems to either have it or not (and almost always he does), but when he doesn’t he usually doesn’t recover. That is three straight playoff losses for Brady and Belichick by the way.
8. Even the best coach in the world screws up sometimes. Trailing by ten, the Patriots should have kicked a field goal when they reached the Jets 18 yard line or so. If they would have spiked the ball after Gronkowski’s first down catch and immediately kicked the field goal, they would have been trailing by seven with over two and a half minutes to go. The Patriots could have then kicked off deep and potentially held the Jets to a punt following the two minute warning. Instead, the Patriots ran three more plays, wasted the two minute warning and settled for a field goal anyways forcing their hand with an onside kick. I am not saying this after the fact either; I was telling everyone I was with that they should kick right then as it happened. It never ceases to amaze me how often these coaches screw up these situations.
9. The conference championship games will feature Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago and New York…four of the top six defenses in the league in terms of scoring and four of the top nine in yardage. Who says defense doesn’t win championships?!?
10. Mark Sanchez is getting a ton of credit for his performance Sunday, and deservedly so, but if you are a Steelers fan I don’t think you could have asked for a better situation in the AFC Championship game. Sanchez was terrible against the Colts, looked pretty bad in the first few possessions against the Patriots until he hit a couple of big plays, and really struggles against the blitz. The Jets should not be able to run the football putting everything on Sanchez’ shoulders. That should make Steelers fans feel pretty good inside.
2. The difference, as I and many expected, was Ben Roethlisberger once again. That 58 yard bomb to Antonio Brown on 3rd and 19 was an absolute thing of beauty.
3. Gun to my head and I had to win a football game tomorrow, I would still choose Manning, Brady and Roethlisberger in that order, but I would have to think awfully hard about Aaron Rodgers at this point. He’s playing as well as any of those guys right now and is just oozing with ability and confidence.
4. Between celebrating the Steelers win, getting some dinner and getting over to the bar I was not able to see all of the Packers-Falcons game. I think some of the Falcons players probably feel the same way…
5. It was interesting to see what happened to the Bears defense in the fourth quarter on Sunday. Should we ignore Matt Hasselbeck carving up the secondary, chalk it up to the big lead and taking the foot off the pedal or was it showing us something more that we could see Rodgers taking advantage of this week?
6. Jay Cutler won his first postseason game since high school…and you were wondering why the Packers are three point road favorites?
7. As great as Tom Brady is, and he should be in everyone’s top five QBs of all time at the minimum, can anyone think of the great comebacks he has had? I know there have been a few, but it just doesn’t seem like he brings his team back the way you always expect Manning or Roethlisberger to do. Brady seems to either have it or not (and almost always he does), but when he doesn’t he usually doesn’t recover. That is three straight playoff losses for Brady and Belichick by the way.
8. Even the best coach in the world screws up sometimes. Trailing by ten, the Patriots should have kicked a field goal when they reached the Jets 18 yard line or so. If they would have spiked the ball after Gronkowski’s first down catch and immediately kicked the field goal, they would have been trailing by seven with over two and a half minutes to go. The Patriots could have then kicked off deep and potentially held the Jets to a punt following the two minute warning. Instead, the Patriots ran three more plays, wasted the two minute warning and settled for a field goal anyways forcing their hand with an onside kick. I am not saying this after the fact either; I was telling everyone I was with that they should kick right then as it happened. It never ceases to amaze me how often these coaches screw up these situations.
9. The conference championship games will feature Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago and New York…four of the top six defenses in the league in terms of scoring and four of the top nine in yardage. Who says defense doesn’t win championships?!?
10. Mark Sanchez is getting a ton of credit for his performance Sunday, and deservedly so, but if you are a Steelers fan I don’t think you could have asked for a better situation in the AFC Championship game. Sanchez was terrible against the Colts, looked pretty bad in the first few possessions against the Patriots until he hit a couple of big plays, and really struggles against the blitz. The Jets should not be able to run the football putting everything on Sanchez’ shoulders. That should make Steelers fans feel pretty good inside.
Friday, January 14, 2011
NFL Divisional Round Picks
Well I went 2-2 last week angering myself for not picking the Jets. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week…
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)
We have been hearing all week how equal these two teams are and how closely every game that they play has been. What we haven’t heard is that the Ravens have never won a playoff game against Pittsburgh, that Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens and 5-0 against Joe Flacco and that the Steelers have never lost (8-0) a playoff game when playing a divisional opponent. I will bare you the details so I don’t sound like a homer, but the difference in this one is Roethlisberger. Picks: Steelers (-3).
Green Bay at Atlanta (-2.5)
This game should be the conference championship but we’ll have to settle for it in the divisional round. As many of you already know I have been on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers bandwagon since the beginning of the season. I have also been on Mike McCarthy’s case since the beginning of the season. No point in changing now…I think the best player on the field in this one will be Rodgers and he gives the Pack a decided advantage despite Matt Ryan’s 20-2 career record at home. I also cringe thinking about a dumb McCarthy decision in the second half of this game that swings this one in favor of the Falcons – who, by the way, are flying way too far under the radar right now. Expect the Packers defense to shut down Michael Turner making the Falcons’ balanced offense one-dimensional and for Rodgers to make one more play than Ryan. Pick: Packers (+2.5).
Seattle at Chicago (-10)
The Seahawks shocked the world last week, well if not the world than at least me, putting new emphasis on the ‘nobody believed in us’ theory. From my perspective, however, last week was a classic “Any Given Sunday” moment for the Seahawks who I expect to come back to earth this week. Remember, in the Seahawks nine losses this year the average margin of defeat was 21 points and no loss was by fewer than 15 points. The Bears defense will shut down Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle running game and I don’t expect Matt Hasselbeck to play anywhere near the game he played last week. The only thing that could stop the Bears from winning this one comfortably is a couple of untimely interceptions by Jay Cutler, something that is entirely possible, but something that I do not think happens until next week. Pick: Bears (-10).
New York at New England (-9)
Have to give Rex Ryan and the Jets credit for not changing who they are. I don’t think I would be going around talking smack after the butt-whooping they received from the Patriots last month but that hasn’t stopped Ryan or his players from running their mouths. Since football isn’t a game won with your mouth, let’s talk a little football. There are two big things working against the Jets in this one. One is Bell Belichick, the best football coach on the planet. Belichick has had two weeks to prepare his team for this one and knows the Jets’ schemes inside and out. You know the Patriots will come prepared and put in the right position to win. The other thing going against the Jets, and this is the big one, is their quarterback Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked terrible last week in the absolutely perfect setting for a road game. How can we possibly expect anything from him this week against a well rested Patriots defense in the cold, windy conditions of Foxboro? Brady will use his tight ends and Wes Welker across the middle to once again expose the safeties and linebackers of the Jets and the Pats pull away late for a comfortable win. Pick: Patriots (-9).
(Regular Season: 127-122-7; Playoffs: 2-2)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)
We have been hearing all week how equal these two teams are and how closely every game that they play has been. What we haven’t heard is that the Ravens have never won a playoff game against Pittsburgh, that Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens and 5-0 against Joe Flacco and that the Steelers have never lost (8-0) a playoff game when playing a divisional opponent. I will bare you the details so I don’t sound like a homer, but the difference in this one is Roethlisberger. Picks: Steelers (-3).
Green Bay at Atlanta (-2.5)
This game should be the conference championship but we’ll have to settle for it in the divisional round. As many of you already know I have been on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers bandwagon since the beginning of the season. I have also been on Mike McCarthy’s case since the beginning of the season. No point in changing now…I think the best player on the field in this one will be Rodgers and he gives the Pack a decided advantage despite Matt Ryan’s 20-2 career record at home. I also cringe thinking about a dumb McCarthy decision in the second half of this game that swings this one in favor of the Falcons – who, by the way, are flying way too far under the radar right now. Expect the Packers defense to shut down Michael Turner making the Falcons’ balanced offense one-dimensional and for Rodgers to make one more play than Ryan. Pick: Packers (+2.5).
Seattle at Chicago (-10)
The Seahawks shocked the world last week, well if not the world than at least me, putting new emphasis on the ‘nobody believed in us’ theory. From my perspective, however, last week was a classic “Any Given Sunday” moment for the Seahawks who I expect to come back to earth this week. Remember, in the Seahawks nine losses this year the average margin of defeat was 21 points and no loss was by fewer than 15 points. The Bears defense will shut down Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle running game and I don’t expect Matt Hasselbeck to play anywhere near the game he played last week. The only thing that could stop the Bears from winning this one comfortably is a couple of untimely interceptions by Jay Cutler, something that is entirely possible, but something that I do not think happens until next week. Pick: Bears (-10).
New York at New England (-9)
Have to give Rex Ryan and the Jets credit for not changing who they are. I don’t think I would be going around talking smack after the butt-whooping they received from the Patriots last month but that hasn’t stopped Ryan or his players from running their mouths. Since football isn’t a game won with your mouth, let’s talk a little football. There are two big things working against the Jets in this one. One is Bell Belichick, the best football coach on the planet. Belichick has had two weeks to prepare his team for this one and knows the Jets’ schemes inside and out. You know the Patriots will come prepared and put in the right position to win. The other thing going against the Jets, and this is the big one, is their quarterback Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked terrible last week in the absolutely perfect setting for a road game. How can we possibly expect anything from him this week against a well rested Patriots defense in the cold, windy conditions of Foxboro? Brady will use his tight ends and Wes Welker across the middle to once again expose the safeties and linebackers of the Jets and the Pats pull away late for a comfortable win. Pick: Patriots (-9).
(Regular Season: 127-122-7; Playoffs: 2-2)
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
NFL Postseason Smorgasbord
The NFL Wild Card weekend featured three games that came down to the wire and a blow-out in Kansas City which sets up the rubber matches in the AFC and a couple of rematches in the NFC. Here are my thoughts on the weekend that was and a little bit on the Divisional Round upcoming:
· I am kicking myself for not pulling the trigger on the Jets for my official picks (my actual wager, had gabling been legal, was theoretically on the Jets, again if sports betting were legal). I knew they had the better team and matched up extremely well versus a banged up Colts team. I just couldn’t get over the Manning against Sanchez factor on Friday when I made my picks. Manning did play a pretty good game and Sanchez flat out stunk, but it was the Jets ability to put the ball in the end zone while the Colts settled for field goals in the second half that made the difference.
· If Sanchez stunk inside a dome, against a pretty vanilla Colts’ defensive scheme and with his running backs churning out well over four yards a run, how do you think Sanchez is going to fare in the freezing, blustering conditions of Foxboro against a Bell Belichick coached defense?
· I get the impression that Rex Ryan knows this and is trying to deflect attention away from his quarterback by his trash talking. That or he just doesn’t know how to shut up. 50/50 on that one I guess…but seriously, Rex, how can you run your mouth after what the Patriots did to you just a few weeks ago?
· I am not kicking myself for picking the Saints over the Seahawks. If you saw that game coming you are flat-out lying, or you are one of those people that kind-of predict things during the week by saying things like, “I don’t know, the Seahawks are at home”, just so you can say “I told you so if the unexpected thing happens.” If your money was on the line Saturday, I bet you had the Saints (pardon the pun!).
· I thought there was a chance Seattle could hang a little if they could run the ball, take time off the clock and get their crowd into it by hanging around early but no way did I think they could win without a few fluke plays or special teams’ gaffes by the Saints. The game went completely opposite of anything I thought….the Saints jumped out to a 10-0 and 17-7 lead, only had the one turnover which was only converted into 3 points by the ‘Hawks, Drew Brees was fantastic, and yet the Seahawks came away victorious. I am still flabbergasted by it.
· The reason Seattle was able to win was the superb downfield passing by Matt Hasselbeck. I think the veteran QB got a little lucky on a couple of those throws, which looked more like hot-air balloons, falling perfectly into his receivers arms but that doesn’t take away anything from what he did Saturday. The guy has been a good quarterback in the NFL for a long time.
· One thing the Seahawks win did uphold is that each of their losses has still occurred by 15 points or more. I guess you can take that as a little foreshadowing for Friday’s picks.
· There is really not much to say about the Ravens and Chiefs. The game went pretty much as I, and most others, expected it to go. Although the final score did get a little more out of hand than I anticipated. Expecting Matt Cassel to beat that Ravens defense in his first career playoff start was asking a bit much even for the most diehard Chiefs fans out there.
· Joe Flacco is now 4-2 in the postseason despite having yet to play a home playoff game in his three years. I thought it was kind of telling, however, that his 196 yards passing at halftime were the most he had ever thrown for in a playoff game (Flacco finished with 265 yards passing). The Ravens will need to continue to take the kiddy gloves off of their QB if they expect to win in Pittsburgh this week. Anything short of a great effort from Flacco and it’s going to be tough against the Steelers, who appear to be playing their best football of the season heading into the playoffs.
· I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if we do see a great performance from Flacco this week as he looks to be coming nicely into his own.
· Lastly, I thought the Packers were the vastly superior team to the Eagles on Sunday but Mike McCarthy did his best once again to allow the Eagles to hang around. Mike, why would you not call time out with nearly two minutes remaining in the first half after stopping the Eagles on 3rd down? Why did you go conservative in the fourth quarter allowing the Eagles a chance with the ball in the final two minutes to win the game?
· I really don’t think McCarthy is a bad coach. In fact, I think he is an excellent offensive mind and a pretty good play-caller. His vertical passing game is fantastic, I love his sense of timing on the screen passes (like the one in the red zone in which Brandon Jackson scored), and I love his ability to manufacture a running game with different formations and looks. I just don’t understand his game management often times. He has Aaron Rodgers, a legitimate superstar and on the fast track to being one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL. McCarthy needs to get out of the way and let Rodgers do his thing as often as possible. I love the Pack’s chances this week but if I were a Packers’ fan the biggest thing I would fear right now is McCarthy’s game management skills.
· It was a fun ride for Michael Vick and company but the jury remains out if you can win a Super Bowl with him as your quarterback. Don’t take that the wrong way; Vick is a fantastic quarterback who almost guarantees you a playoff spot on his own if he is healthy. I am talking about taking that next step to being great, the ability to lead your team to victory in a tough spot when everything hasn’t gone your way. We have seen Brady do it numerous times...Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger have all done it, and it is what separates the these guys from the rest. Vick still has not proven he can do it and I am not sure he ever will.
· That’s it for today. I will be back Friday for a breakdown of the Divisional Round and if you can read between the lines above you can probably guess which way I am leaning on the four games.
· I am kicking myself for not pulling the trigger on the Jets for my official picks (my actual wager, had gabling been legal, was theoretically on the Jets, again if sports betting were legal). I knew they had the better team and matched up extremely well versus a banged up Colts team. I just couldn’t get over the Manning against Sanchez factor on Friday when I made my picks. Manning did play a pretty good game and Sanchez flat out stunk, but it was the Jets ability to put the ball in the end zone while the Colts settled for field goals in the second half that made the difference.
· If Sanchez stunk inside a dome, against a pretty vanilla Colts’ defensive scheme and with his running backs churning out well over four yards a run, how do you think Sanchez is going to fare in the freezing, blustering conditions of Foxboro against a Bell Belichick coached defense?
· I get the impression that Rex Ryan knows this and is trying to deflect attention away from his quarterback by his trash talking. That or he just doesn’t know how to shut up. 50/50 on that one I guess…but seriously, Rex, how can you run your mouth after what the Patriots did to you just a few weeks ago?
· I am not kicking myself for picking the Saints over the Seahawks. If you saw that game coming you are flat-out lying, or you are one of those people that kind-of predict things during the week by saying things like, “I don’t know, the Seahawks are at home”, just so you can say “I told you so if the unexpected thing happens.” If your money was on the line Saturday, I bet you had the Saints (pardon the pun!).
· I thought there was a chance Seattle could hang a little if they could run the ball, take time off the clock and get their crowd into it by hanging around early but no way did I think they could win without a few fluke plays or special teams’ gaffes by the Saints. The game went completely opposite of anything I thought….the Saints jumped out to a 10-0 and 17-7 lead, only had the one turnover which was only converted into 3 points by the ‘Hawks, Drew Brees was fantastic, and yet the Seahawks came away victorious. I am still flabbergasted by it.
· The reason Seattle was able to win was the superb downfield passing by Matt Hasselbeck. I think the veteran QB got a little lucky on a couple of those throws, which looked more like hot-air balloons, falling perfectly into his receivers arms but that doesn’t take away anything from what he did Saturday. The guy has been a good quarterback in the NFL for a long time.
· One thing the Seahawks win did uphold is that each of their losses has still occurred by 15 points or more. I guess you can take that as a little foreshadowing for Friday’s picks.
· There is really not much to say about the Ravens and Chiefs. The game went pretty much as I, and most others, expected it to go. Although the final score did get a little more out of hand than I anticipated. Expecting Matt Cassel to beat that Ravens defense in his first career playoff start was asking a bit much even for the most diehard Chiefs fans out there.
· Joe Flacco is now 4-2 in the postseason despite having yet to play a home playoff game in his three years. I thought it was kind of telling, however, that his 196 yards passing at halftime were the most he had ever thrown for in a playoff game (Flacco finished with 265 yards passing). The Ravens will need to continue to take the kiddy gloves off of their QB if they expect to win in Pittsburgh this week. Anything short of a great effort from Flacco and it’s going to be tough against the Steelers, who appear to be playing their best football of the season heading into the playoffs.
· I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if we do see a great performance from Flacco this week as he looks to be coming nicely into his own.
· Lastly, I thought the Packers were the vastly superior team to the Eagles on Sunday but Mike McCarthy did his best once again to allow the Eagles to hang around. Mike, why would you not call time out with nearly two minutes remaining in the first half after stopping the Eagles on 3rd down? Why did you go conservative in the fourth quarter allowing the Eagles a chance with the ball in the final two minutes to win the game?
· I really don’t think McCarthy is a bad coach. In fact, I think he is an excellent offensive mind and a pretty good play-caller. His vertical passing game is fantastic, I love his sense of timing on the screen passes (like the one in the red zone in which Brandon Jackson scored), and I love his ability to manufacture a running game with different formations and looks. I just don’t understand his game management often times. He has Aaron Rodgers, a legitimate superstar and on the fast track to being one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL. McCarthy needs to get out of the way and let Rodgers do his thing as often as possible. I love the Pack’s chances this week but if I were a Packers’ fan the biggest thing I would fear right now is McCarthy’s game management skills.
· It was a fun ride for Michael Vick and company but the jury remains out if you can win a Super Bowl with him as your quarterback. Don’t take that the wrong way; Vick is a fantastic quarterback who almost guarantees you a playoff spot on his own if he is healthy. I am talking about taking that next step to being great, the ability to lead your team to victory in a tough spot when everything hasn’t gone your way. We have seen Brady do it numerous times...Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger have all done it, and it is what separates the these guys from the rest. Vick still has not proven he can do it and I am not sure he ever will.
· That’s it for today. I will be back Friday for a breakdown of the Divisional Round and if you can read between the lines above you can probably guess which way I am leaning on the four games.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Ben Fantastic; Smorgasbord Tomorrow
I am backed up today in the real world so I will have to postpone the NFL Smorgasbord for tomorrow...but I leave you with this article from KC Joyner (aka The Football Scientist) showing how truly great Ben Roethlisberger has been. I am not sure I would put him on Brady's level, as Joyner does, but I have been saying for years he is the third best quarterback in the league.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6011130
You need an ESPN Insider account to read the article but if you don't have an insider account, here is a snippet:
"In other words, Roethlisberger is piloting a high-risk/high-reward offense. A solid bad decision rate for a quarterback of that nature would be in the 2.5-to-3 percent range and Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total is well below that. Brady's 1.3 percent mark is just as superb (a 2.0 percent total is considered good for dink/dunk offenses) but when this context is applied, it is clear that his lead in this metric is fairly negligible at best.
And that's the story with pretty much any measurement one can come up with to compare Roethlisberger and Brady both for this season and their careers. The biggest exception to this might be that Brady has three Super Bowl rings to Roethlisberger's two, but the second-biggest exception is that Roethlisberger is 4½ years younger -- he has a lot more time to make up the title gap than Brady has to extend it."
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6011130
You need an ESPN Insider account to read the article but if you don't have an insider account, here is a snippet:
"In other words, Roethlisberger is piloting a high-risk/high-reward offense. A solid bad decision rate for a quarterback of that nature would be in the 2.5-to-3 percent range and Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total is well below that. Brady's 1.3 percent mark is just as superb (a 2.0 percent total is considered good for dink/dunk offenses) but when this context is applied, it is clear that his lead in this metric is fairly negligible at best.
And that's the story with pretty much any measurement one can come up with to compare Roethlisberger and Brady both for this season and their careers. The biggest exception to this might be that Brady has three Super Bowl rings to Roethlisberger's two, but the second-biggest exception is that Roethlisberger is 4½ years younger -- he has a lot more time to make up the title gap than Brady has to extend it."
Monday, January 10, 2011
BCS National Championship Preview and Prediction
NFL Wild Card weekend is over but there is just one little, itty-bitty, tiny football game to be played tonight, the BCS National Championship game. Don’t worry, I’ll have plenty of thoughts on the NFL weekend in tomorrow’s Playoff Smorgasbord but today, let’s focus on the college gridiron where what has to be the most highly anticipated National Championship game since Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and USC took on Vince Young and Texas back in the 2006 Rose Bowl is set to occur.
Tonight’s game features Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who has had the best individual season I have witnessed in my lifetime, and the undefeated Auburn Tigers squaring off against LaMichael James, the 3rd place finisher in the Heisman voting, Darron Thomas and the high-powered, high-octane Oregon Ducks who just so happen to be undefeated as well. If it hadn’t been 37 days or whatever it has been since the last time these teams took the field, I might just have goosebumps in anticipation of watching this game. If you leave your seat to get a beer from the fridge, you might just miss a TD…and that is no knock on these defenses that have both been fantastic as well.
So who wins? Let’s break it down…
Oregon Offense vs. Auburn Defense: Even though Oregon plays on the West Coast, I am sure most people have seen the Ducks play at least a couple of times this year and are familiar with the pace that the Ducks like to run their offense. Coach Chip Kelly wants to have the next play snapped within 15 seconds of the previous play ending. This puts an enormous amount of pressure on the defense to get their call in, get lined up and to stop what is already an enormously talented offense. The Ducks have playmakers everywhere with James and Kenyon Barner in the backfield, Darron Thomas, the dual-threat QB, and a host of WRs that all seem faster than the next. Auburn’s defense features stud defensive tackle Nick Fairley, a potential top 10 draft pick, and a bunch of guys you probably haven’t heard much about. The Auburn D has played well at times this year, most notably in the SEC Championship game, but make no mistake that it has been Cam Newton and the Tigers offense that has carried this team. The month off has given the Tigers time to prepare for Oregon’s spread attack but I doubt that they were able to simulate the speed, not only the pace at which they play but the speed of the playmakers, that Oregon operates with. Advantage: Ducks.
Auburn Offense vs. Oregon Defense: Cam Newton, Cam Newton, Cam Newton….is there really much else to say here? Newton has been unbelievable this year, rushing for over 1,400 yards and throwing for nearly 2,600 more. Newton has been fantastic in every phase of the game but the part that has gone somewhat unnoticed is how efficient he has been throwing the football. The Tigers lead the nation in both passing efficiency and yards per attempt, two statistics that truly show just how great Newton has been. The talent surrounding Newton is not equal to that of his counterpart in Thomas, but the Tigers have more than enough playmakers to support Newton and take advantage if the Ducks pay too much attention to Newton. Oregon’s defense has been great this year despite flying somewhat under the radar due to the team’s eye-popping offensive numbers. The Ducks are 25th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense despite the added number of possessions they see from the offense’s style of play. That being said, Oregon has not seen a player that will threaten them the way that Cam Newton will tonight. Look for Auburn to try and take advantage of Oregon’s undersized defense by pounding Newton and running back Michael Dyer up the gut. If Auburn can wear down the Ducks defense and keep their own defense fresh on the sidelines, it could go a long way towards how this one is decided. Advantage: Tigers.
Special Teams: This part of the game probably favors the Ducks who sport the nation’s #1 punt return unit and are 20th in the country in net punting. That point could become moot, however, if neither team has to punt the football. On kickoffs, which there could be a ton of tonight, both teams feature excellent coverage units and only Auburn has busted one for a TD this year. Neither team’s kicker has been tested much this year but both appear capable of getting the job done. I am sure both teams are hopeful that this one doesn’t come down to a last second kick, however. In a game that could easily swing one way or another on special teams play, I really don’t expect the game to come down to that. Advantage: Ducks, ever so slightly.
Prediction: Expect some fireworks tonight as both defenses get acclimated to the speed and scheme of the opposing offenses. I expect an absolute show from Cam Newton and from the Ducks high-octane offense but in the end I think it is the Oregon defense that is the difference. The SEC has never lost a BCS Title Game, and Cam Newton has never lost a collegiate start, but I think for the first time it will be the opposing team with the speed advantage on the defensive side of the ball. I have gone against Cam Newton numerous times this year only to regret it the next day but I like Chip Kelly’s team just a bit more tonight. Oregon wins 41-34.
Tonight’s game features Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who has had the best individual season I have witnessed in my lifetime, and the undefeated Auburn Tigers squaring off against LaMichael James, the 3rd place finisher in the Heisman voting, Darron Thomas and the high-powered, high-octane Oregon Ducks who just so happen to be undefeated as well. If it hadn’t been 37 days or whatever it has been since the last time these teams took the field, I might just have goosebumps in anticipation of watching this game. If you leave your seat to get a beer from the fridge, you might just miss a TD…and that is no knock on these defenses that have both been fantastic as well.
So who wins? Let’s break it down…
Oregon Offense vs. Auburn Defense: Even though Oregon plays on the West Coast, I am sure most people have seen the Ducks play at least a couple of times this year and are familiar with the pace that the Ducks like to run their offense. Coach Chip Kelly wants to have the next play snapped within 15 seconds of the previous play ending. This puts an enormous amount of pressure on the defense to get their call in, get lined up and to stop what is already an enormously talented offense. The Ducks have playmakers everywhere with James and Kenyon Barner in the backfield, Darron Thomas, the dual-threat QB, and a host of WRs that all seem faster than the next. Auburn’s defense features stud defensive tackle Nick Fairley, a potential top 10 draft pick, and a bunch of guys you probably haven’t heard much about. The Auburn D has played well at times this year, most notably in the SEC Championship game, but make no mistake that it has been Cam Newton and the Tigers offense that has carried this team. The month off has given the Tigers time to prepare for Oregon’s spread attack but I doubt that they were able to simulate the speed, not only the pace at which they play but the speed of the playmakers, that Oregon operates with. Advantage: Ducks.
Auburn Offense vs. Oregon Defense: Cam Newton, Cam Newton, Cam Newton….is there really much else to say here? Newton has been unbelievable this year, rushing for over 1,400 yards and throwing for nearly 2,600 more. Newton has been fantastic in every phase of the game but the part that has gone somewhat unnoticed is how efficient he has been throwing the football. The Tigers lead the nation in both passing efficiency and yards per attempt, two statistics that truly show just how great Newton has been. The talent surrounding Newton is not equal to that of his counterpart in Thomas, but the Tigers have more than enough playmakers to support Newton and take advantage if the Ducks pay too much attention to Newton. Oregon’s defense has been great this year despite flying somewhat under the radar due to the team’s eye-popping offensive numbers. The Ducks are 25th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense despite the added number of possessions they see from the offense’s style of play. That being said, Oregon has not seen a player that will threaten them the way that Cam Newton will tonight. Look for Auburn to try and take advantage of Oregon’s undersized defense by pounding Newton and running back Michael Dyer up the gut. If Auburn can wear down the Ducks defense and keep their own defense fresh on the sidelines, it could go a long way towards how this one is decided. Advantage: Tigers.
Special Teams: This part of the game probably favors the Ducks who sport the nation’s #1 punt return unit and are 20th in the country in net punting. That point could become moot, however, if neither team has to punt the football. On kickoffs, which there could be a ton of tonight, both teams feature excellent coverage units and only Auburn has busted one for a TD this year. Neither team’s kicker has been tested much this year but both appear capable of getting the job done. I am sure both teams are hopeful that this one doesn’t come down to a last second kick, however. In a game that could easily swing one way or another on special teams play, I really don’t expect the game to come down to that. Advantage: Ducks, ever so slightly.
Prediction: Expect some fireworks tonight as both defenses get acclimated to the speed and scheme of the opposing offenses. I expect an absolute show from Cam Newton and from the Ducks high-octane offense but in the end I think it is the Oregon defense that is the difference. The SEC has never lost a BCS Title Game, and Cam Newton has never lost a collegiate start, but I think for the first time it will be the opposing team with the speed advantage on the defensive side of the ball. I have gone against Cam Newton numerous times this year only to regret it the next day but I like Chip Kelly’s team just a bit more tonight. Oregon wins 41-34.
Friday, January 7, 2011
NFL Wild Card Weekend
During the Steelers first Super Bowl run of the 2000’s (following the 2005 NFL season), I went a perfect 11-0 against the spread in the NFL playoffs. I know that I will probably never do it again, but I have come to realize that magical month of picking NFL games is what makes me think that I can get every betting prediction that I make right. It hasn’t happened since and it probably won’t happen again, but here goes nothing…
New Orleans (-11) at Seattle
The Saints lost their top two running backs for the year when Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were put on injured reserve list this week. Those injuries will leave the running back duties to Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. Weather permitting, that may just benefit the Saints as Drew Brees and Sean Payton open up the playbook and attack the Seahawks’ 27th ranked passing defense vertically. The Seahawks, on the other hand, probably have the best home-field advantage in the NFL, a veteran presence at QB in Matt Hasselbeck and an improved running game with Marshawn Lynch that gives them three major pluses towards keeping this game close. In the end, however, the Saints passing attack will be too much and a couple of Seattle turnovers will leave the Seahawks with another double digit loss and the Saints moving on in attempt to defend their Super Bowl trophy. Picks: Saints (-11).
New York Jets at Indianapolis (-2.5)
There are really only two things that matter this time of year: (1) Quarterbacks; and (2) Matchups, in that order. That is what makes handicapping this game so difficult. I love how the Jets matchup against the injury depleted Colts. Last year the Colts gutted the Jets passing defense by using Austin Collie and Dallas Clark over the middle and Pierre Garcon on the outside while the Jets focused all of their attention on Reggie Wayne. This year, Collie and Clark are out and are being replaced by Jacob Tamme and Blair White, not exactly striking fear in the Jets meeting rooms. Plus, the addition of Antonio Cromartie opposite of Darrelle Revis should make Garcon have to work that much harder. Offensively, the Jets can still run the ball well enough to keep the Colts honest and the Jets playmaking WRs should be able to find some holes in what is not exactly a great Colts secondary. Back to that opening line, however, and the order in which I wrote it. The most important aspect this time of year is the quarterback and despite what my better judgment is telling me, there is no way I am going against Peyton Manning at home against Mark Sanchez. Besides, the four road teams can’t all win can they? Pick: Colts (-2.5).
Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City
Matchups and quarterback play, right? Well the matchups in this one are pretty even, and the Chiefs are 7-1 at home with their only home loss coming last week in what was essentially a meaningless game for the Chiefs, but I simply cannot take Matt Cassel in his first career playoff start over the Joe Flacco and the battle tested Ravens. I think this one is going to be closer than what many are expecting, but a late run by Ray Rice seals the deal for the Ravens who have become known for their road playoff prowess the past two years. Pick: Ravens (-3).
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-3)
Maybe you will get sick of hearing me say it by the end of the playoffs but once again match-ups and QB play will be the determining factor here. Green Bay, with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams covering the Eagles wideouts (and the occasional blitz by Woodson, seriously is there any corner better at blitzing) and the freak that is Clay Matthews chasing down Michael Vick, there is no defense better suited to stop this dynamic Philadelphia offense. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia’s banged up secondary has been taken advantage of numerous times this year and certainly will not have it easy trying to stop Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and the rest of the Packers passing weapons. Andy Reid’s undefeated record on wild card weekend combined with Mike McCarthy’s rear-end being kicked by Ken Whisenhunt in last year’s opening round (not to mention his suspect job this year) gives me pause, but in the end the Packers have the more complete team and the better quarterback. Pick: Packers (+3).
(Regular Season Record: 127-122-7)
New Orleans (-11) at Seattle
The Saints lost their top two running backs for the year when Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were put on injured reserve list this week. Those injuries will leave the running back duties to Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. Weather permitting, that may just benefit the Saints as Drew Brees and Sean Payton open up the playbook and attack the Seahawks’ 27th ranked passing defense vertically. The Seahawks, on the other hand, probably have the best home-field advantage in the NFL, a veteran presence at QB in Matt Hasselbeck and an improved running game with Marshawn Lynch that gives them three major pluses towards keeping this game close. In the end, however, the Saints passing attack will be too much and a couple of Seattle turnovers will leave the Seahawks with another double digit loss and the Saints moving on in attempt to defend their Super Bowl trophy. Picks: Saints (-11).
New York Jets at Indianapolis (-2.5)
There are really only two things that matter this time of year: (1) Quarterbacks; and (2) Matchups, in that order. That is what makes handicapping this game so difficult. I love how the Jets matchup against the injury depleted Colts. Last year the Colts gutted the Jets passing defense by using Austin Collie and Dallas Clark over the middle and Pierre Garcon on the outside while the Jets focused all of their attention on Reggie Wayne. This year, Collie and Clark are out and are being replaced by Jacob Tamme and Blair White, not exactly striking fear in the Jets meeting rooms. Plus, the addition of Antonio Cromartie opposite of Darrelle Revis should make Garcon have to work that much harder. Offensively, the Jets can still run the ball well enough to keep the Colts honest and the Jets playmaking WRs should be able to find some holes in what is not exactly a great Colts secondary. Back to that opening line, however, and the order in which I wrote it. The most important aspect this time of year is the quarterback and despite what my better judgment is telling me, there is no way I am going against Peyton Manning at home against Mark Sanchez. Besides, the four road teams can’t all win can they? Pick: Colts (-2.5).
Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City
Matchups and quarterback play, right? Well the matchups in this one are pretty even, and the Chiefs are 7-1 at home with their only home loss coming last week in what was essentially a meaningless game for the Chiefs, but I simply cannot take Matt Cassel in his first career playoff start over the Joe Flacco and the battle tested Ravens. I think this one is going to be closer than what many are expecting, but a late run by Ray Rice seals the deal for the Ravens who have become known for their road playoff prowess the past two years. Pick: Ravens (-3).
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-3)
Maybe you will get sick of hearing me say it by the end of the playoffs but once again match-ups and QB play will be the determining factor here. Green Bay, with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams covering the Eagles wideouts (and the occasional blitz by Woodson, seriously is there any corner better at blitzing) and the freak that is Clay Matthews chasing down Michael Vick, there is no defense better suited to stop this dynamic Philadelphia offense. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia’s banged up secondary has been taken advantage of numerous times this year and certainly will not have it easy trying to stop Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and the rest of the Packers passing weapons. Andy Reid’s undefeated record on wild card weekend combined with Mike McCarthy’s rear-end being kicked by Ken Whisenhunt in last year’s opening round (not to mention his suspect job this year) gives me pause, but in the end the Packers have the more complete team and the better quarterback. Pick: Packers (+3).
(Regular Season Record: 127-122-7)
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Pitt Can Salvage Current Embarrassment
By now, everyone knows the story of what has happened to the Pitt football program over the last few weeks. Pitt forced the resignation of Dave Wannstedt after the second most successful three-year stretch in school history, proceeded to allow Wannstedt the choice to coach in the bowl game, hired a new coach in Mike Haywood in what they made seem like a top secret search, this new coach had only been a head coach for two seasons at a MAC school where he had a losing record, the new coach then proceeded to get arrested on domestic abuse charges after both he and Athletic Director Steve Pederson spoke of character and discipline at Haywood’s introductory news conference, the new coach was subsequently fired and all-the-while the former coach had yet to make up his mind on coaching in Pitt’s bowl game. On top of all that, two assistant coaches, including the team’s offensive coordinator, left for new jobs at a conference rival in Rutgers and the once very promising recruiting class of 19 players has dwindled to 6 commitments, at best. Needless to say, there are a lot of red faces over in Oakland right now.
Despite the black eye that the Pitt administrators, namely Pederson and Chancellor Mark Nordenberg, have suffered, all is not completely lost by this bizarre and unfortunate sequence of events. Quite frankly, what has happened to Haywood could be the best thing that could have happened to the program. Haywood’s dismissal gives the administration the time and the reason to use every resource possible to conduct an exhaustive search for the next head football coach at the University of Pittsburgh, something that has become more and more evident did not occur in the hiring of Haywood.
Both the handling of Wannstedt’s departure and the hiring (and dismissal) of Mike Haywood will be forgotten if Pitt is able to hire the right coach this time around. Many probably remember the hiring and subsequent firing of George O’Leary at Notre Dame nearly ten years ago for lying on his resume. Many also probably remember how quickly the story was forgotten about when Ty Willingham came in and won his first eight games as coach of the Irish on his way to a ten win season and a Gator Bowl appearance. Sure, the Willingham era did not finish the way the Note Dame faithful had hoped but his hiring quickly put an end to the embarrassment the school suffered in the wake of the O’Leary fiasco.
Pitt is in a similar circumstance now where they can alleviate the embarrassment of these events by hiring the right coach for the job. I don’t pretend to know if that coach is Kevin Sumlin, Tommy Bradley, Mike Leach, or some other coach out there we have yet to hear about and really nobody can know without knowing the individuals themselves and going through the correct process. What I do know is that Pitt can salvage this terrible sequence of events by hiring the right man for the job. That pressure falls once again on Pederson and Nordenberg and here’s hoping that they get it right this time. After all, that’s the only thing that can make right of the current situation.
Despite the black eye that the Pitt administrators, namely Pederson and Chancellor Mark Nordenberg, have suffered, all is not completely lost by this bizarre and unfortunate sequence of events. Quite frankly, what has happened to Haywood could be the best thing that could have happened to the program. Haywood’s dismissal gives the administration the time and the reason to use every resource possible to conduct an exhaustive search for the next head football coach at the University of Pittsburgh, something that has become more and more evident did not occur in the hiring of Haywood.
Both the handling of Wannstedt’s departure and the hiring (and dismissal) of Mike Haywood will be forgotten if Pitt is able to hire the right coach this time around. Many probably remember the hiring and subsequent firing of George O’Leary at Notre Dame nearly ten years ago for lying on his resume. Many also probably remember how quickly the story was forgotten about when Ty Willingham came in and won his first eight games as coach of the Irish on his way to a ten win season and a Gator Bowl appearance. Sure, the Willingham era did not finish the way the Note Dame faithful had hoped but his hiring quickly put an end to the embarrassment the school suffered in the wake of the O’Leary fiasco.
Pitt is in a similar circumstance now where they can alleviate the embarrassment of these events by hiring the right coach for the job. I don’t pretend to know if that coach is Kevin Sumlin, Tommy Bradley, Mike Leach, or some other coach out there we have yet to hear about and really nobody can know without knowing the individuals themselves and going through the correct process. What I do know is that Pitt can salvage this terrible sequence of events by hiring the right man for the job. That pressure falls once again on Pederson and Nordenberg and here’s hoping that they get it right this time. After all, that’s the only thing that can make right of the current situation.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Orange Bowl Pick and More
Discover Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (+3.5) over Stanford
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ohio State (-3) over Arkansas
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Middle Tennessee State (-2) over Miami (Oh)
AT&T Cotton Bowl
LSU (-2.5) over Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Bowl
Pitt (-3.5) over Kentucky
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Boston College (+8) over Nevada
Virginia Tech (+3.5) over Stanford
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ohio State (-3) over Arkansas
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Middle Tennessee State (-2) over Miami (Oh)
AT&T Cotton Bowl
LSU (-2.5) over Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Bowl
Pitt (-3.5) over Kentucky
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Boston College (+8) over Nevada
Sunday, January 2, 2011
NFL Week 17 Picks
(Home Team in Caps)
Miami (+6) over NEW ENGLAND
BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
Buffalo (+1) over NEW YORK JETS
Tampa Bay (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA (-14.5) over Carolina
DETROIT (-3) over Minnesota
Oakland (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-10) over Chicago
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville
SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Arizona
San Diego (-3.5) over DENVER
New York Giants (-4) over WASHINGTON
Dallas (+6) over PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis (-3) over SEATTLE
(Last Week: 9-7; Overall: 118-115-7)
Miami (+6) over NEW ENGLAND
BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
Buffalo (+1) over NEW YORK JETS
Tampa Bay (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA (-14.5) over Carolina
DETROIT (-3) over Minnesota
Oakland (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-10) over Chicago
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville
SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Arizona
San Diego (-3.5) over DENVER
New York Giants (-4) over WASHINGTON
Dallas (+6) over PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis (-3) over SEATTLE
(Last Week: 9-7; Overall: 118-115-7)
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