Plenty of Blame to Go Around

People are often quick to place blame on their own teams when they lose rather than praise the opposition for winning the game on their own merit. In many cases this line of thinking is incorrect and the other team simply played better and/or deserved to win the game. The Steelers, however, deserve much of the blame for their loss in Super Bowl XLV. Don’t get me wrong, the Packers did enough to deserve to win the football game. Green Bay played mistake-free football, made big plays when they needed to on both sides of the ball and put the game on the arm of their superstar quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to come out with the Lombardi Trophy. The Steelers, however, did more than their fair share to help the Packers hoist the trophy in the air.

Ben Roethlisberger had a subpar performance, especially by his lofty standards. Roethlisberger not only threw two interceptions but he missed a number of throws that he usually makes, most notably on the final fourth down pass to Mike Wallace. Roethlisberger’s pick six hurt, but it was one of those nothing you could do about it plays. His second interception, however, was a bad read, a bad throw and a big momentum killer for the Steelers who were moving the ball again after cutting the Packers lead to 14-3. There is certainly blame to be placed on Roethlisberger, but he is far from alone in that regard.

Rashard Mendenhall had a decent game himself. He ran for 63 yards on 14 carries including a nice eight-yard touchdown run. Mendenhall’s fumble, however, was probably the single biggest play of the game. The Steelers had cut the lead to four points, had begun establishing themselves on the ground and had all of the momentum on their side heading into the fourth quarter when Mendenhall fumbled on a second down and two play from the Packers’ 33-yard-line after being hit in the backfield. The play gave Green Bay the ball near midfield where they went on to score the eventual winning touchdown. The Steelers never quite recovered.

The Steelers defense, known all year for its ability to make big plays and prevent big plays from the opposition, accomplished neither. Dick LeBeau’s guys were unable to prevent Green Bay from scoring on both chances following Pittsburgh turnovers and were even worse in third down situations. Everyone will remember the 3rd and 10 pass to Greg Jennings in the fourth quarter as one of the key moments of the game, and it certainly was, but the Packers also converted five other critical third downs in the game and completed six passes over 20 yards. It was a poor performance from a unit that was widely considered the league’s best.

The special teams provided solid coverage and some decent returns but did their part in contributing mightily to the Steelers mistakes. Kicker Shaun Suisham missed a 52-yard field goal in the third quarter which would have cut the Packers lead to one. Sure, a 52-yarder is anything but a “gimme”, but indoors with no wind and perfect conditions this kick needs to be made. Suisham choked and kicked it about three miles wide left. Keyaron Fox, the Steelers special teams’ captain no-less, had an indefensible personal foul penalty called on the final kick return. This pushed the Steelers back to their own 13-yard-line to begin their final two-minute drive, one they would ultimately fail on with a chance to win the game.

Super Bowl winners simply do not make these kinds of mistakes. One or two mistakes can be overcome but when you start piling on the amount of mistakes that the Steelers made, in every facet of the game, it becomes near impossible to overcome. The Steelers tried their best to conquer them, nonetheless, and with two minutes and only 87 yards standing in their way they had an opportunity, but once again mistakes got the best of them. The Green Bay Packers deserve to be Super Bowl Champions today but in this game, it really was a case of the Pittsburgh Steelers not deserving.

Super Pick

It is that time to make an official pick for Super Bowl XLV. I thought about breaking this game down Dr. Jack Ramsey style but after two weeks of hearing about every angle of this game I’m guessing most people are just eager for kick-off. So let’s skip the bravado and get straight to the pick.

Everywhere you turn people have a different perspective on this one and with good reason…this game could easily go in a number of different ways. Two of the league’s top offenses go up against two of the league’s best defenses. I don’t think it would surprise anyone if this game ended in a low-scoring affair such as 17-14 or if the great quarterbacks involved began carving up these defenses and it turns into a shootout like the last time these two teams met. One thing that most people do expect, however, is a close game. Count me in that group as well, and for that reason I can’t help but pick the Steelers. I have seen Ben Roethlisberger too many times now with the game on the line elevate his play and lead his team to victory. Aaron Rodgers has shown that ability as well, and maybe this game will be the performance that puts Rodgers on a path towards legendary status just as Steve Young's performance in the Super Bowl some years ago did, but until that happens I am going with the proven guy in Roethlisberger.

Steelers win, 27-23.

Super Bowl Smorgasbord

The Super Bowl is only three days away now and we are nearly finished with two weeks of over-the-top Super Bowl coverage from ESPN and every other major sports news outlet there is. Before tackling the actual game tomorrow, I wanted to dive into some of the storylines heading into the game and give my thoughts on some of the topics.

· It has been a relatively calm week so far in Dallas with the biggest story being reported on is how the Steelers, namely James Harrison, have attacked Roger Goodell and the NFL office. You know it has been a somewhat boring build-up when we are rehashing the same stories from week five of the regular season. The good news is that the game should more than make up for the lack of great stories heading in.

· The one story that did get a little pub was that a number of Steelers, including Hines Ward and Ike Taylor, were at a strip club Monday night. Any fan that has a problem with the Steelers enjoying themselves six nights before the Super Bowl with an off day following should get a life.

· I read an interesting take (and I forget where it came from now) wondering just why the Packers are the favorite in this game. The writer wondered how the Steelers with the better defense, better quarterback and better running game can be the underdog. That view makes a lot of sense until you remember just how darn good the Packers have looked over their past five games.

· Rod Woodson made a statement last week that Ben Roethlisberger is not a top 5 active quarterback. While I disagree with him completely I could certainly understand someone thinking that Big Ben is not top five if he were to put Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers and Rodgers ahead of him. If nothing else, it is at least a completely defensible point of view. But Big Ben has to be close to that group doesn’t he? Woodson made it sound like Roethlisberger is nowhere near this elite category and defended his statement by saying that Roethlisberger played poorly in his first Super Bowl and that he has more to prove this offseason as a person. Come on Rod…you sounded old and bitter and backed up what could have been a defensible statement with garbage reasons. Woodson was a terrific player, one of the best of all time, but I don’t think he has much of a future as an analyst.

· I have no idea if Woodson even has an interest in being an analyst. My guess is that he does not or he would have already been hired by ESPN for his good looks and total lack of knowledge. If he needs references, Emmit Smith, Michael Irvin and Trent Dilfer are available.

· Normally I would put something about last Sunday’s Pro Bowl here but for at least the fifth straight year I didn’t see a minute of the game. Seriously, why does the NFL insist on playing this game? If they cannot attract hard-core fans like myself and others I know who were not watching, why not do away with the game and have some kind of fun skills competition or something?

· On the Green Bay side of things you want to talk about boring! At least from the Steelers perspective we have Harrison’s fines, Roethlisberger the changed man, whether Pouncey and Aaron Smith will play, Brett Keisel’s beard and even a strip club mention to talk about. Outside of actual football related stuff, there has been nothing fun to talk about happening on the Packers end. I have seen more articles about Brett Favre, Vince Lombardi and Cheeseheads than I have about the current team. We at least learned that B.J. Raji seems like a pretty cool dude.

When I started writing this piece I thought I would have much more to touch on but it has been a relatively quiet build-up towards Super Bowl XLV. For what it’s worth I really think that is a good thing. With the potential to be one of the all-time great Super Bowls it is fantastic that there really are no stories that could overshadow the game. I will be back tomorrow with my abbreviated breakdown of the game and my official prediction. Who knows, there is a chance I could put my Pittsburgh bias aside and pick what has looked like the best team in football over the past month…

Changing of the Guard?

There are going to be thousands of articles, stories and features covering pretty much every angle of the Super Bowl in the next two weeks that I would rather leave to others. There is one subject that I want to touch on before taking the next week to catch up on other things happening around the sports world before diving into the Super Bowl coverage full throttle next week. That subject is one that I enjoy talking about the most in sports - the quarterback position. In particular, are we seeing a changing of the guard at the top of the NFL’s pecking order?

Sure, Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl just a year ago and Tom Brady just completed what is soon to be another MVP season, but Manning and Brady will be 35 and 34-years-old, respectively, when the season begins next year (I guess at this point we need to start saying IF THE SEASON BEGINS NEXT YEAR). Clearly each has a few great years left in him and if Brett Favre is an example with his career year at the age of 40, maybe even another five or six years of very productive football left. Needless to say, however, both have seen their youth and, most likely, the peak of their physical abilities in the rear-view mirror.

Tom Brady and his Patriots have lost their last three postseason contests, including two of those at home. Peyton Manning owns a career losing record in the playoffs, also suffering defeat in his last two outings. Both have time to add to their unbelievable legacies, and the race to be called to the greatest of all time is still on, but the windows for these all time greats could perhaps be starting to narrow. The Colts look like a team that needs a good amount of roster work to get back to their Super Bowl level of last year. Meanwhile, while it is true that the Patriots look very well positioned for the future, let’s not forget that Brady is already working on one surgically repaired knee and as the Jets playoff game showed, he can be a sitting duck in the pocket.

I am in no way trying to minimize the accomplishments of two, if not the two, greatest quarterbacks of all time. Words don’t do justice to the greatness of the two quarterbacks, and as of today I would consider each of their teams to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites for next year because of them. I am simply stating that we may finally be seeing a changing of the guard as the premier NFL QBs of today. To illustrate…

Ben Roethlisberger is not yet 29 and Aaron Rodgers just recently turned 27. Both are just entering what has become the historical peak years for a quarterback of 28-34 years old, and in Rodgers case he has not even hit that magic number yet.

I have long maintained that Roethlisberger would be #3 on my list of top NFL quarterbacks and it may now be time to start including him in the conversation with Manning and Brady. In seven years, Roethlisberger has now won two Super Bowls with a chance at a third, been to four AFC Championships, is the owner of a 10-2 career postseason record, a 69-29 regular season record and a career passer rating of 92.5, good for 8th all-time. Did I mention that he is only entering what are believed to be a quarterback’s peak years? Did I mention that stats only tell half of the story with Roethlisberger, a guy who keeps plays alive with his legs and always seems to elevate his play when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 19 comeback victories including his best comeback in Super Bowl XLIII?

As for Rodgers, it is still entirely too early to put him on the level of Manning, Brady or even Roethlisberger at this point historically, but it is becoming harder and harder not to recognize the Hall of Fame talent he is working with. On top of that career passer rating list sits Rodgers at 98.4, ahead of legendary names like Young, Montana, Marino and the aforementioned three greats of today. Rodgers play this postseason has been nothing short of greatness and that play, combined with last year’s performance in the shootout loss to the Cardinals, has Rodgers on top of the career postseason passer rating list as well. Rodgers has a long way to go historically to be mentioned in the same breath as Manning and Brady, but it is almost impossible to argue that he is not playing on the same level as those guys today.

In today’s modern era, with linebackers and defensive ends running 4.5 second forty-yard-dashes and defensive schemes becoming ever more complex, it has become almost essential for quarterbacks to make plays with their legs, both running the football and getting outside the pocket to make plays down the field with their arms. No one performs this aspect of the position better than Roethlisberger and Rodgers, not even Michael Vick who is more of a runner than a scrambler. What Brady and Manning have on the young guns in terms of reading defenses and quick releases, Rodgers and Big Ben more than make up for with their play-making abilities. I mention this only as further proof that it is possible a changing of the guard is taking place. We watched Manning and Brady being hit play after play against the Jets who knew where they would be in the pocket, then watched as Roethlisberger made the two biggest plays of the second half by avoiding rushes and getting outside of the pocket. As this era continues to progress, it will become more essential for quarterbacks to have this escape ability, and both Rodgers and Roethlisberger excel in this regard.

At the end of the day, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and are still probably the best two quarterbacks of today. The day is coming, however, that will not be the case and my guess is that this Super Bowl is a preview as to who their two replacements will be as we carry on the argument for the NFL’s best quarterback.

Super Bowl Recap

I wanted to release my thoughts on the game yesterday, but I figured I would let my emotions wear off and watch the game one more time from an objective point of view. After watching it a second time, not caring this time about my “interest” in the Colts, I came to the conclusion that I should have stuck to my guns. I should have known this was an even game on paper, the line was inflated and that two of the Colts’ biggest stars were playing on bum wheels. I just could not get over the greatness of Peyton Manning. Well his greatness was outdone by a brilliant gameplan by Sean Payton and Greg Williams, outdone by a brilliant performance from Drew Brees, and outdone by another game where the Colts refused to attack for 60 minutes. Most of the credit for the Saints’ 31-17 Super Bowl victory will and should go to Brees, Payton and Tracy Porter, who had the pick-six to seal the victory, but to me this game was more about what the Colts didn’t do, than what the Saints did.

Let’s start by giving credit where credit is due. The Saints had a masterful gameplan put in place both offensively and defensively. Sean Payton did his normal amazing job of play-calling, called the greatest onside kick in NFL history, and absolutely nailed the sequence of events at the end of the first half.

Quick tangent on that last topic; Many “old-school” football guys were disagreeing with Payton at the time for going for it on 4th and goal at the Colts’ one with less than two minutes to play (I know most of the guys I was with thought he should kick). They would have been killing him had the Saints not gotten a field goal to end the half and eventually lost the game, whether that field goal would have mattered or not. Well I don’t know how to say it without insulting anyone, but that thought is absolutely, 100% wrong. If the Saints kick a field goal there, they cut the lead to 10-6. They then would have to kick-off to the Colts, giving Manning decent field position, two minutes and three time-outs. At that point the Saints would have been happy to hold Manning to a field goal and give the three points right back, with a very real possibility of Manning leading his team down for a TD and an 11 point halftime lead. Going for it gave the Saints the opportunity to tie the game and if they were unsuccessful, it left the Colts in the position to only try and run the clock out. Worst case is a 10-3 deficit at halftime, and that would have been the same as a 13-6 score that most likely would have ensued, at a minimum, had the Saints kicked a field goal. The Saints even got the best case scenario, holding the Colts without a first down and getting a field goal to end the half. It was simply a great coaching decision by Sean Payton. Ok, off of my high horse…

Where was I, oh yes, giving credit to the Saints. Drew Brees was flawless, tying the Super Bowl record for most completions, hitting on over 80% of his passes, and earning an absolutely deserving MVP award. Brees used all of his weapons, stayed patient in the pocket and put every throw where it needed to be. Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey were all major factors in the game and that goes to the credit of a brilliant system masterminded by Sean Payton and run to perfection by Drew Brees. Defensive Coordinator Greg Williams’ gameplan was just as well-planned and well-executed as Sean Payton’s and the Saints’ offense. The Saints defense was able to keep Peyton Manning just a little off guard with their blitzes, even without registering a sack, forcing Manning to throw a few times just a bit earlier than he would have liked. They also forced the Colts to do something that they do not want to do, and that is run the football and sustain long drives (more on this in just a minute). Finally, and like they have done all year, the opportunistic Saints defense made the play of the game, with Porter picking Manning off and taking it to the house, infuriating the Vegas sportsbooks who had to pay out large sums for the defensive touchdown prop bet. In the end, the Saints coached a great game, played a great game, and deserved to win the Super Bowl.

I could end the analysis there and that would be that but the Colts total lack of urgency, in my opinion, is what cost Manning his second Super Bowl ring. I thought they did the same thing against the Ravens, letting them hang around for far too long in a game that should have been over long before. They were doing the same thing against the Jets until they found themselves down two scores. I said it during the Jets game to a friend that the best thing that happened to the Colts was going down two scores. The Colts, and Manning in particular, went immediately into attack mode, said screw the running the game, and stayed there for the remainder of the game. When the Colts get into attack mode, they are virtually unstoppable. Against an offense like New Orleans, the Colts should have been in attack mode the entire game.

The Colts came out in this attack mode against the Saints, scoring 10 early points, and then took their proverbial foot off the pedal. Give the Saints some credit for this as their long drives in the second quarter kept Manning off the field, not to mention a crucial drop by Pierre Garcon, but you could tell with the speed and urgency that the Colts offense was playing with that they were not in full-out attack mode. The Saints dared the Colts to run the football, and the Colts played right into their hands by doing so. Yes they were running it with moderate success, but the Saints gameplan was to force the Colts into 3rd and 4 or 3rd and 5 and try to stop Manning one time per series instead of three times, and the Colts took the bait for much of the game. When the Saints scored to go up 13-10, the Colts went back into attack mode, throwing six of the next nine plays and marching right down the field to immediately answer with a touchdown of their own. We did not see the Colts in this attack mode again until the Saints held a 24-17 lead. Manning, or Wayne, whomever you would like to blame, made the crucial error and it was too late.

Had the Colts been in attack mode the entire game, I’m guessing they win this game by two scores. They fell into an approach through the playoffs of getting ahead and hoping to hold on instead of a let’s score and keep scoring mentality. Without doing much digging into the Colts past playoff failures, my guess is this has been the same problem in many of the playoff lossesthe Colts have suffered. It is the same organizational mentality that refuses to chase the undefeated season. It is a mentality that I can best describe as a lack of killer instinct when it matters the most. But just as Peyton Manning learned from his early 2000s defeats at the hands of the Patriots, here’s betting that Manning learns from this defeat and is right back in this situation once again in the very near future. It’s just too bad that I didn’t realize this before the game!

Super Bowl Pick Time

This is a pretty big handicapping pick for me. Not only is it my first pick on the new blog, it will determine if I have a winning playoff season or not. Right now I sit 5-5 against the spread in the 2009 NFL Playoffs. That does not sound too great, but I am actually quite happy with it after a disastrous 0-4 wildcard weekend. I have rallied back going 3-1 in the Divisional Round and 2-0 two weeks ago in the Conference Championships. You see, not only does this pick determine my post-season success (or failure) this year, it determines my postseason reputation in general. Going back to the 2005 playoffs, the year the Steelers beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, I did the unthinkable and went 11-0 in the NFL Playoffs. I followed that up with NFL postseason records of 9-2, 8-3 and 8-3 versus the spread. I have begun to think of myself as somewhat of a guru when it comes to the NFL postseason. A losing record this year could kill all the mojo I have built up over the past few seasons, even if I am the only one who thinks I have it. I guess that is enough of a dramatic build up, let’s get onto the pick…

Colts 35 – Saints 24

Often times in big games we get an inflated line because of all the “amateur” money that will be bet, and usually this money is bet on the favorite. The Cardinals last season and the Giants two years ago are prime examples. The underdog is 6-3-1 in the past ten Super Bowls. Statistically, and on paper, this looks like a pretty even football game between two great teams. Why am I taking the Colts? I could sit here and make up ten different reasons why. I could tell you that I expect Dwight Freeney to play, and that he usually plays only about 2/3 of the snaps anyhow so the Colts are somewhat used to playing without him. I could tell you that I expect the Saints to play right into the Colts’ hands by blitzing, as the Colts are the best team in the league against the blitz. I could tell you Drew Brees will commit a costly mistake crippling the Saints chances to win the game, something he has done more than the general public realizes he does. But the truth of the matter is that there is only one reason I am backing the Colts and his name is Peyton Manning. I expect Manning to be too good, too sharp and too prepared for the Saints defense to handle. Most of all, I expect Manning to continue down his path towards the greatest QB of all-time. Those that are backing the Saints, I can’t fault you, but I know when I sit back on the couch Sunday with a cold beverage in my hand, I will feel quite comfortable with my postseason reputation in the hands of Peyton Manning.