New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA – As well as Cam Newton as played I don’t think he’s ready to keep up with Drew Brees and Co.
Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO – Eventually the Eagles are going to figure things out...I think.
INDIANAPOLIS (-2) over Kansas City – Rumor has it that this game is the reason the NFL created NFL Sunday Ticket!
JACKSONVILLE (+2) over Cincinnati – Jacksonville’s defense is slightly underrated and could be a tough match-up for Andy Dalton. Then again, Cincy’s defense is also slightly underrated and could be tough on Blaine Gabbert. That’s too many words for this game already.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-9.5) over Seattle – In no circumstance can we back Tarvaris Jackson on the road.
MINNESOTA (-3) over Arizona – If McNabb doesn’t find a way to win this one it could be the beginning of the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Tennessee – Not having Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith might just be a good thing as both have struggled early in the season. Not having James Harrison is a different story.
Oakland (+6) over HOUSTON – Can we say letdown game for the Texans? And no Andre Johnson to boot...
Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO – Imagine this one will come down to the wire and the 3 points could come up big here.
San Diego (-4) over DENVER – The Chargers are good, the Broncos are not.
New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND – Too many points here.
ATLANTA (+6.5) over Green Bay – Atlanta should be fired up to revenge their embarrassing loss in the playoffs last year. Plus the Packers can’t go undefeated, can they?
Chicago (+5) over DETROIT – Not taking anything away from the Lions but they have been extremely lucky to win their last two games. This line is about two points too high.
MLB Championship Series Picks
Detroit vs. Texas – Going with my heart instead of my head here despite the Tigers’ game one loss with ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Texas has a much better line-up and a deeper pitching staff but these Tigers just keep finding a way and Jim Leyland keeps pulling all the right strings (aka getting lucky!). Seriously, Don Kelly batting 2nd and he hits a home run! You can’t make these things up. Tigers in seven.
Milwaukee vs. St. Louis – Probably my two least favorite teams in all of baseball. Team arrogant in Milwaukee versus the most arrogant man in baseball in Tony La Russa. Still, you have to appreciate the swagger the Brewers are playing with right now and I have to root for someone. Since Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder helped lead my fantasy baseball team to a championship this year, I’ll go with the Brewers in what is a virtual coin-flip between these two teams. Let’s just hope the postseason continues to be as fantastic as it has been so far. Brewers in seven.
Showing posts with label Baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baseball. Show all posts
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Friday, September 30, 2011
Friday Smorgasbord (as well MLB Playoffs and Week 4 NFL picks)
There has been a lot going on in the sports world these days so there doesn’t seem like a better time than now to have another smorgasbord. Let’s dive right in…
• First off, I decided to not print my Pitt to the ACC column largely because it looks like conference expansion has been put on hold for now and that was largely the gist of the column. That being said, I love the move to the ACC for Pitt. Sure, most of us will miss the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden, an event that I have personally attended a few times, but that is a sacrifice the school had to make for the better long term prospects of both football and basketball in the ACC. Besides, having Duke and/or North Carolina coming into the Oakland Zoo every year is a pretty nice trade off.
• The biggest point that I was going to make in my conference expansion column was that I wish we would just get to the four or five super-conferences already and be done with it. I think it is pretty obvious that we are heading in that direction and the constant speculation, rumors and back-office maneuvering is tiresome. This temporary hold on the conference expansion just means that we have to continue to discuss where and what conferences teams are going to end up in.
• Speaking of Pitt, Coach Graham and company got their first signature win last night on national television at home against South Florida…a game in which even LeBron James weighed in on how awesome Ray Graham is. Ray Graham, the RB, might have been in the Heisman conversation if Pitt would have just held on against Iowa. After last night’s win, anything short of a battle with West Virginia for the conference championship would have to be considered a disappointment.
• Mike Wallace is quickly becoming of the NFL’s best wide receivers. He doesn’t have the freakish skills that guys like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson have but his combination of speed and route running is quickly putting him on those guys level. Wallace reminds me a ton of a young Torry Holt or Reggie Wayne, with possibly even more speed than those guys had.
• After the Steelers first three games, I’m still not sure what kind of team they are. I think we will learn a lot more after this week’s game in Houston. That being said, I was extremely encouraged by the play of James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week. If those guys are healthy and playing the way they are capable of, this team will be right there in the end.
• If you missed Major League Baseball’s final regular season night on Wednesday, you missed a treat. It was like baseball’s version of March Madness with 3+ hours of top drama as the Cardinals and Rays somehow completed two of baseball’s most unbelievable rallies to pass the Braves and Red Sox for the wild card spots. I tried to be positive there for both the Cards and Rays but really they were two of the worst collapses in sports history by Boston and Atlanta - capped off by dramatic collapses in game 162 by each team.
• The baseball playoffs start today and I absolutely love post-season baseball. Every pitch is filled with so much drama, I only wish they occurred faster than every 30 seconds or so. In the Wild Card round, I’m going with the Yankees in four, Rays in five, Phillies and Brewers both in four to advance and I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of the Yankees winning the World Series. Since Atlanta collapsed and missed the postseason, I’ll take the Yanks to beat Milwaukee in the World Series after the Brewers pull the unexpected upset of Philadelphia for the NL pennant.
• With those picks out of the way, here are my week four NFL picks:
(Home Team in Caps)
DALLAS (-1.5) over Detroit – Continue to go against Detroit…might continue to regret it. It’s not that I don’t believe they are legit, it just comes down to individual games and match-ups.
New Orleans (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – No way the Jags and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert can keep up with this Saints offense.
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over San Francisco – This is the week the Eagles win big and everyone thinks everything is a-ok again in Philadelphia.
ST. LOUIS (+2) over Washington – Be careful going against home dogs.
CLEVELAND (pk) over Tennessee – I think it is going to take some time for Tennessee to adjust to life without Kenny Britt.
CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Buffalo – Again, beware of home dogs. Plus, Buffalo is going to come back to earth at some point.
Minnesota (-2) over KANSAS CITY – Eventually Minnesota is not going to blow a big halftime lead.
CHICAGO (-6.5) over Carolina – Newton has not seen anything like what he will see this week in Julius Peppers and the Bears ball-hawking defense.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) over HOUSTON – Does anyone not think that this game is a complete coin-toss? Give me the 3.5 points before I overthink it.
Atlanta (-4.5) over SEATTLE – I think Atlanta could up being our Jekyll and Hyde team this year…one week they look terrible and the next they look fantastic.
New York Giants (-1) over ARIZONA – So far the Kevin Kolb experience at QB is not working for the Cardinals.
Miami (+7) over SAN DIEGO – I think the Chargers win but the Dolphins keep it close.
GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Denver – Yes it is a ton of points but I can’t see how the Broncos can keep up with this fantastic Packers offense at home.
New England (-4) over OAKLAND – Check Bill Belichick’s record after a loss and this pick makes a whole lot more sense.
New York Jets (+3.5) over BALTIMORE – Think this one comes down to a field goal at the end.
Indianapolis (+10) over TAMPA BAY – I know the Monday Night Football schedule was made up before Peyton Manning’s availability was fully known but still, this has to be the worst line-up of primetime games I have ever seen.
(Last Week: 10-6; Overall: 23-23-2)
• First off, I decided to not print my Pitt to the ACC column largely because it looks like conference expansion has been put on hold for now and that was largely the gist of the column. That being said, I love the move to the ACC for Pitt. Sure, most of us will miss the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden, an event that I have personally attended a few times, but that is a sacrifice the school had to make for the better long term prospects of both football and basketball in the ACC. Besides, having Duke and/or North Carolina coming into the Oakland Zoo every year is a pretty nice trade off.
• The biggest point that I was going to make in my conference expansion column was that I wish we would just get to the four or five super-conferences already and be done with it. I think it is pretty obvious that we are heading in that direction and the constant speculation, rumors and back-office maneuvering is tiresome. This temporary hold on the conference expansion just means that we have to continue to discuss where and what conferences teams are going to end up in.
• Speaking of Pitt, Coach Graham and company got their first signature win last night on national television at home against South Florida…a game in which even LeBron James weighed in on how awesome Ray Graham is. Ray Graham, the RB, might have been in the Heisman conversation if Pitt would have just held on against Iowa. After last night’s win, anything short of a battle with West Virginia for the conference championship would have to be considered a disappointment.
• Mike Wallace is quickly becoming of the NFL’s best wide receivers. He doesn’t have the freakish skills that guys like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson have but his combination of speed and route running is quickly putting him on those guys level. Wallace reminds me a ton of a young Torry Holt or Reggie Wayne, with possibly even more speed than those guys had.
• After the Steelers first three games, I’m still not sure what kind of team they are. I think we will learn a lot more after this week’s game in Houston. That being said, I was extremely encouraged by the play of James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week. If those guys are healthy and playing the way they are capable of, this team will be right there in the end.
• If you missed Major League Baseball’s final regular season night on Wednesday, you missed a treat. It was like baseball’s version of March Madness with 3+ hours of top drama as the Cardinals and Rays somehow completed two of baseball’s most unbelievable rallies to pass the Braves and Red Sox for the wild card spots. I tried to be positive there for both the Cards and Rays but really they were two of the worst collapses in sports history by Boston and Atlanta - capped off by dramatic collapses in game 162 by each team.
• The baseball playoffs start today and I absolutely love post-season baseball. Every pitch is filled with so much drama, I only wish they occurred faster than every 30 seconds or so. In the Wild Card round, I’m going with the Yankees in four, Rays in five, Phillies and Brewers both in four to advance and I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of the Yankees winning the World Series. Since Atlanta collapsed and missed the postseason, I’ll take the Yanks to beat Milwaukee in the World Series after the Brewers pull the unexpected upset of Philadelphia for the NL pennant.
• With those picks out of the way, here are my week four NFL picks:
(Home Team in Caps)
DALLAS (-1.5) over Detroit – Continue to go against Detroit…might continue to regret it. It’s not that I don’t believe they are legit, it just comes down to individual games and match-ups.
New Orleans (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – No way the Jags and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert can keep up with this Saints offense.
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over San Francisco – This is the week the Eagles win big and everyone thinks everything is a-ok again in Philadelphia.
ST. LOUIS (+2) over Washington – Be careful going against home dogs.
CLEVELAND (pk) over Tennessee – I think it is going to take some time for Tennessee to adjust to life without Kenny Britt.
CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Buffalo – Again, beware of home dogs. Plus, Buffalo is going to come back to earth at some point.
Minnesota (-2) over KANSAS CITY – Eventually Minnesota is not going to blow a big halftime lead.
CHICAGO (-6.5) over Carolina – Newton has not seen anything like what he will see this week in Julius Peppers and the Bears ball-hawking defense.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) over HOUSTON – Does anyone not think that this game is a complete coin-toss? Give me the 3.5 points before I overthink it.
Atlanta (-4.5) over SEATTLE – I think Atlanta could up being our Jekyll and Hyde team this year…one week they look terrible and the next they look fantastic.
New York Giants (-1) over ARIZONA – So far the Kevin Kolb experience at QB is not working for the Cardinals.
Miami (+7) over SAN DIEGO – I think the Chargers win but the Dolphins keep it close.
GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Denver – Yes it is a ton of points but I can’t see how the Broncos can keep up with this fantastic Packers offense at home.
New England (-4) over OAKLAND – Check Bill Belichick’s record after a loss and this pick makes a whole lot more sense.
New York Jets (+3.5) over BALTIMORE – Think this one comes down to a field goal at the end.
Indianapolis (+10) over TAMPA BAY – I know the Monday Night Football schedule was made up before Peyton Manning’s availability was fully known but still, this has to be the worst line-up of primetime games I have ever seen.
(Last Week: 10-6; Overall: 23-23-2)
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Pirates Showed Improvement - Look to Next Year
The Pirates wrap up a season that was once filled with promise tonight in Milwaukee looking to avoid 90 losses for the seventh straight season. One thing they will not avoid is their 19th consecutive losing season, a record for all of the major sports leagues. Despite the disappointing end to the season, currently going 19-42 after they were in first place in the division after 100 games with a 53-47 record, a win tonight would still have the Pirates improving by 16 games over last season. (Note: Before the season I optimistically predicted the Pirates to finish 70-92 so they have even exceeded my expectations.) Even with a loss, and I do expect the Pirates to lose as the Brewers need a win to lock in the #2 seed in the NL playoffs, they would have improved over last season’s league worst record by 15 games. (Editor’s note: Article was completed before the Pirates loss in the season finale.) Only Arizona and Milwaukee have improved more than the Pirates did from last season and both of those teams will be playing in October. That just goes to show how bad the Pirates truly were a year ago and how much work is left to be done.
The team’s improvement is seemingly forgotten by many Pirates fans because of how truly badly the team has played over the final two plus months of the season. There were, however, many positives to take from this season, not the least of which was a general interest and passion returning to the team’s fanbase after a tremendous first half of the season. More positives included Andrew McCutchen solidifying himself as an emerging star despite his drop off in the second half; the establishment of Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Charlie Morton as legitimate big league starters and some, albeit small, amount of hope from Brad Lincoln; Joel Hanrahan’s maturation into one of the league’s best closers; Neil Walker proving that last year was no fluke; Neal Huntington’s ability to assemble a bullpen on the cheap; Jose Tabata’s no-lose contract extension and limited, though continued improvement; and a strong start to the career of Alex Presley in a limited sample size. Clint Hurdle also proved that he is the right manager for this team at this time…although I will continue to say that he is a terrible in-game manager.
The negatives included Huntington’s terrible offseason acquisitions of Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay (the first I liked and the second I didn’t before the season); the injury and poor performance of Ross Ohlendorf; the continued lack of a true big-league shortstop or first baseman; the catchers’ many injuries and of course the big disappointment that was Pedro Alvarez’ second season in the big leagues. Alvarez’ disappointing season, and disappointing is a major understatement, is obviously the biggest concern as Pedro’s development is probably the most important factor into the possibility of this team contending over the next several years. Alvarez is the team’s lone power bat, and pretty much the only power source in the entire organization. If Alvarez doesn’t bounce back and become the middle-of-the-order bat that the team so desperately needs I simply cannot see this team contending for at least another few years until the young power arms in the low minors might come along.
So that leaves the question, where does this team go heading into next season?
Well let’s start with the obvious. McCutchen will be in center and Walker will be at 2B. From there we have some moving parts but the Pirates absolutely have to give the 3B job to Pedro, give him 500 at-bats and see what he becomes. I would also implore the Pirates to embrace the speed that they have and start the season with Presley and Tabata at the corner outfield spots. That would also mean starting the season with Garrett Jones at 1B, but just as they tried to do this year with Matt Diaz, it would be wise to bring in a right-handed platoon bat at first base to share time with Jones. I also expect the Pirates to exercise the option on Ronny Cedeno at SS and let him and Chase D’Arnaud compete for the job. Really, the Pirates have no choice but to exercise Cedeno’s $3 million option after how poorly D’Arnaud played this year in his first stop in the big leagues and the lack of shortstops on the market (really, a case could be made that D’Arnaud was the worst player in the major leagues this past season).
That leaves catcher as the only unfilled position and I would hope that the Pirates plan to exercise the option on either Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit, with Snyder’s one-year option the more likely choice. I’d love to see Doumit stay, he seems like a good guy who desperately wants to win here, but his injury history and lack of defensive skills make him a liability at $15.5 million over 2 years. Assuming Snyder is retained, or if he isn’t I guess the job will be McHenry’s to lose, that leaves the Pirates with essentially the same line-up as this year. If there is going to be improvement, it is going to have to come from the players themselves. Given their age and some of their histories and pedigrees, that is a reasonable hope. Really, though, it all comes down to Alvarez. As he goes, my guess is so does the Pirates’ offense.
I don’t expect much help from the outside in terms of pitching either and you are probably thinking, “why wouldn’t they go out and spend money to improve the ballclub?” And while that claim is legitimate, the Pirates are still trying to find out what they have internally and are still a couple of years away from truly competing. Spending big money now would be foolish and a waste. I expect the Pirates to allow Paul Maholm and his $9.75 million option to hit the free agent market and to start the season with a rotation of Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, James McDonald and either Brad Lincoln or Ross Ohlendorf with the loser of that battle serving in the long relief and next in-line starter role. Joel Hanrahan will once again anchor the bullpen and I am sure Neal Huntington will assemble a number of power arms in front of him, including the possible retention of Jose Veras and Daniel McCutchen and hopefully highlighted by the return of Evan Meek to his 2010 form. The Pirates are hoping that the left-handed relief role can be filled by Daniel Moskos but if not, that is one area they may have to go out and find a player.
All in all, I don’t expect much player-movement come the offseason for the Buccos. I would think a right-handed bat could be brought in to platoon with Garrett Jones at first, another reliever or two could be brought in and I am sure the club will bring in a few starting pitchers on minor league contracts to compete for starting roles but with not much chance to win. That doesn’t mean improvement is not possible, quite the opposite in fact. If this team was going to break the consecutive losing seasons streak and actually contend anytime soon, the improvement was going to have to come from within. That means the pressure is on Andrew McCutchen to become a superstar, Neil Walker to become more consistent and a major improvement from the likes of Jose Tabata, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Brad Lincoln and Ross Ohlendorf. But nowhere is the spotlight shown brighter than on Pedro Alvarez and his bat. If the Pirates are going to continue moving forward as they did this year, it is squarely on the shoulders of Alvarez to become the hitter the Pirates organization thought he would be.
The team’s improvement is seemingly forgotten by many Pirates fans because of how truly badly the team has played over the final two plus months of the season. There were, however, many positives to take from this season, not the least of which was a general interest and passion returning to the team’s fanbase after a tremendous first half of the season. More positives included Andrew McCutchen solidifying himself as an emerging star despite his drop off in the second half; the establishment of Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Charlie Morton as legitimate big league starters and some, albeit small, amount of hope from Brad Lincoln; Joel Hanrahan’s maturation into one of the league’s best closers; Neil Walker proving that last year was no fluke; Neal Huntington’s ability to assemble a bullpen on the cheap; Jose Tabata’s no-lose contract extension and limited, though continued improvement; and a strong start to the career of Alex Presley in a limited sample size. Clint Hurdle also proved that he is the right manager for this team at this time…although I will continue to say that he is a terrible in-game manager.
The negatives included Huntington’s terrible offseason acquisitions of Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay (the first I liked and the second I didn’t before the season); the injury and poor performance of Ross Ohlendorf; the continued lack of a true big-league shortstop or first baseman; the catchers’ many injuries and of course the big disappointment that was Pedro Alvarez’ second season in the big leagues. Alvarez’ disappointing season, and disappointing is a major understatement, is obviously the biggest concern as Pedro’s development is probably the most important factor into the possibility of this team contending over the next several years. Alvarez is the team’s lone power bat, and pretty much the only power source in the entire organization. If Alvarez doesn’t bounce back and become the middle-of-the-order bat that the team so desperately needs I simply cannot see this team contending for at least another few years until the young power arms in the low minors might come along.
So that leaves the question, where does this team go heading into next season?
Well let’s start with the obvious. McCutchen will be in center and Walker will be at 2B. From there we have some moving parts but the Pirates absolutely have to give the 3B job to Pedro, give him 500 at-bats and see what he becomes. I would also implore the Pirates to embrace the speed that they have and start the season with Presley and Tabata at the corner outfield spots. That would also mean starting the season with Garrett Jones at 1B, but just as they tried to do this year with Matt Diaz, it would be wise to bring in a right-handed platoon bat at first base to share time with Jones. I also expect the Pirates to exercise the option on Ronny Cedeno at SS and let him and Chase D’Arnaud compete for the job. Really, the Pirates have no choice but to exercise Cedeno’s $3 million option after how poorly D’Arnaud played this year in his first stop in the big leagues and the lack of shortstops on the market (really, a case could be made that D’Arnaud was the worst player in the major leagues this past season).
That leaves catcher as the only unfilled position and I would hope that the Pirates plan to exercise the option on either Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit, with Snyder’s one-year option the more likely choice. I’d love to see Doumit stay, he seems like a good guy who desperately wants to win here, but his injury history and lack of defensive skills make him a liability at $15.5 million over 2 years. Assuming Snyder is retained, or if he isn’t I guess the job will be McHenry’s to lose, that leaves the Pirates with essentially the same line-up as this year. If there is going to be improvement, it is going to have to come from the players themselves. Given their age and some of their histories and pedigrees, that is a reasonable hope. Really, though, it all comes down to Alvarez. As he goes, my guess is so does the Pirates’ offense.
I don’t expect much help from the outside in terms of pitching either and you are probably thinking, “why wouldn’t they go out and spend money to improve the ballclub?” And while that claim is legitimate, the Pirates are still trying to find out what they have internally and are still a couple of years away from truly competing. Spending big money now would be foolish and a waste. I expect the Pirates to allow Paul Maholm and his $9.75 million option to hit the free agent market and to start the season with a rotation of Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, James McDonald and either Brad Lincoln or Ross Ohlendorf with the loser of that battle serving in the long relief and next in-line starter role. Joel Hanrahan will once again anchor the bullpen and I am sure Neal Huntington will assemble a number of power arms in front of him, including the possible retention of Jose Veras and Daniel McCutchen and hopefully highlighted by the return of Evan Meek to his 2010 form. The Pirates are hoping that the left-handed relief role can be filled by Daniel Moskos but if not, that is one area they may have to go out and find a player.
All in all, I don’t expect much player-movement come the offseason for the Buccos. I would think a right-handed bat could be brought in to platoon with Garrett Jones at first, another reliever or two could be brought in and I am sure the club will bring in a few starting pitchers on minor league contracts to compete for starting roles but with not much chance to win. That doesn’t mean improvement is not possible, quite the opposite in fact. If this team was going to break the consecutive losing seasons streak and actually contend anytime soon, the improvement was going to have to come from within. That means the pressure is on Andrew McCutchen to become a superstar, Neil Walker to become more consistent and a major improvement from the likes of Jose Tabata, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Brad Lincoln and Ross Ohlendorf. But nowhere is the spotlight shown brighter than on Pedro Alvarez and his bat. If the Pirates are going to continue moving forward as they did this year, it is squarely on the shoulders of Alvarez to become the hitter the Pirates organization thought he would be.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Reality Has Set In But Pirates Have Plenty to Play For
The Pirates are now floundering in a seven game losing streak and have lost 9 of 10 overall. It is funny how playing above expectations can simultaneously lead to creating unattainable expectations. The Pirates, who not too long ago held first place in their division, were projected by even the most optimistic fans to win only 70-75 games this season. Through 110 games, the Pirate sit a mediocre 54-56, a record that puts them on pace to win roughly 80 games this year! If you could have said that at the beginning of the season, every Pirates enthusiast would have signed up for that in a heartbeat.
The Pirates ability to play above their heads for 100 games, however, put unreasonable expectations on a team that simply is not all that talented. That 53-47 record through 100 games had Pirates fans dreaming of a division title and actual playoff games at PNC Park. Unfortunately, there was no way the Pirates were going to continue playing that well without some sort of miracle. The Pirates had the run differential of a .500 team and only had that because their starting pitching staff was performing way over their heads. It was only a matter of time before the team came crashing back to earth and we all should have recognized that at the time.
Instead, we decided to suspend reality and believe that these Buccos could continue winning one-run games, that Kevin Correia and the rest of the Pirates starters would continue pitching at a level they never have before, that the returns of Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, and Jose Tabata would boost the line-up and that trading for Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick would improve upon their zero production predecessors. Well, I guess the last two statements are true but when your line-up was as dreadful as this team’s was marginal improvements simply aren’t enough.
I have held from the beginning that even if the mini-miracle continued that the Pirates were still not good enough to win the division without major help from their competitors. Even with everything breaking right, this team was not going to win more than 83 or 84 games. For that to win the division, the Pirates would need major help. Who knows, the Pirates may get out of this funk and go on to win that many games but the Brewers have now made it look impossible that merely 83 or 84 wins would take the division. That’s the point I want to make today.
It is not time to get down on these Pirates, who have already accomplished more this year than anyone could have imagined. Instead, it is time to set more realistic goals for this team, most notably breaking the 18 season losing streak the team has endured. Let’s root for Neal Huntington and his staff to continue building toward real contender status over the next couple of years. Reality has set in, but that does not mean the season needs to be a waste. The Pirates have plenty to play for and a future that looks a whole lot better than before this season started.
The Pirates ability to play above their heads for 100 games, however, put unreasonable expectations on a team that simply is not all that talented. That 53-47 record through 100 games had Pirates fans dreaming of a division title and actual playoff games at PNC Park. Unfortunately, there was no way the Pirates were going to continue playing that well without some sort of miracle. The Pirates had the run differential of a .500 team and only had that because their starting pitching staff was performing way over their heads. It was only a matter of time before the team came crashing back to earth and we all should have recognized that at the time.
Instead, we decided to suspend reality and believe that these Buccos could continue winning one-run games, that Kevin Correia and the rest of the Pirates starters would continue pitching at a level they never have before, that the returns of Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, and Jose Tabata would boost the line-up and that trading for Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick would improve upon their zero production predecessors. Well, I guess the last two statements are true but when your line-up was as dreadful as this team’s was marginal improvements simply aren’t enough.
I have held from the beginning that even if the mini-miracle continued that the Pirates were still not good enough to win the division without major help from their competitors. Even with everything breaking right, this team was not going to win more than 83 or 84 games. For that to win the division, the Pirates would need major help. Who knows, the Pirates may get out of this funk and go on to win that many games but the Brewers have now made it look impossible that merely 83 or 84 wins would take the division. That’s the point I want to make today.
It is not time to get down on these Pirates, who have already accomplished more this year than anyone could have imagined. Instead, it is time to set more realistic goals for this team, most notably breaking the 18 season losing streak the team has endured. Let’s root for Neal Huntington and his staff to continue building toward real contender status over the next couple of years. Reality has set in, but that does not mean the season needs to be a waste. The Pirates have plenty to play for and a future that looks a whole lot better than before this season started.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Trading Season Has Begun; Good Day for Buccos Despite Inactivity
The baseball trading has begun and if you are a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, today was a good day. Carlos Beltran was traded to the San Francisco Giants despite being linked with the Milwaukee Brewers, among other teams, and the Cardinals made the first ever “go for it” trade that made their team worse now, and in the future.
The first trade of the day was a three-teamer between the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. Let’s just say the American League teams did fine in this one. Toronto received Colby Rasmus, the 24-year-old outfielder that is easily the best asset in the deal, from the Cards and utility man Mark Teahen from the White Sox as well as three no-name pitchers. For Rasmus, the Cardinals received right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and outfielder Corey Patterson as well as two relievers and some other considerations such as cash and three players to be named later. The White Sox ended up with reliever Jason Frasor and pitching prospect Zach Stewart.
Rasmus was clearly the best player in this trade but for whatever reason was unable to get along with Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa and his coaching staff and they felt the need to move him. Not only is Rasmus a pretty decent player already, his skills and young age have had scouts and baseball insiders drooling over him for years. Fans of other National League Central teams have to be extremely happy about his departure, and the fact that he could be replaced with Corey Patterson! Edwin Jackson is a hard-throwing righty with a no-hitter during his time with the Diamondbacks but his career ERA of 4.53 and extremely high walk rate aren’t sending fear through the NL Central.
Toronto’s incentive in the trade was clearly acquiring the young Rasmus and the potential he possesses. The Blue Jays have done a tremendous job acquiring assets in recent years - it’s just a shame they have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox, meanwhile, pick up a good bullpen arm and a pretty good pitching prospect in Stewart while saving some money in the meantime.
The other trade that has either gone down or soon will go down is Carlos Beltran heading west to the San Francisco Giants for some kind of package that includes pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. As part of the trade the Mets are reported to be picking up $4 million of the remaining $6.5 million owed to Beltran, with this being the final year of his contract. Beltran is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Giants who have been desperate for a middle of the order bat since Buster Posey’s injury. The Giants have plenty of pitching and giving up a prospect, grant it a darn-good one, is well worth the gamble for a team trying to win back-to-back World Series titles. The Mets were willing to eat much of the money owed to Beltran in order to pick up a premium prospect in a trade and they couldn’t have done much better than Wheeler who is ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball according to Keith Law’s latest rankings. The trade is a win for both teams as the Giants add a big piece to their title defense while the Mets pick up a legitimate starting pitching prospect for the future for a player they were likely to lose at the end of the season.
The first trade of the day was a three-teamer between the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. Let’s just say the American League teams did fine in this one. Toronto received Colby Rasmus, the 24-year-old outfielder that is easily the best asset in the deal, from the Cards and utility man Mark Teahen from the White Sox as well as three no-name pitchers. For Rasmus, the Cardinals received right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and outfielder Corey Patterson as well as two relievers and some other considerations such as cash and three players to be named later. The White Sox ended up with reliever Jason Frasor and pitching prospect Zach Stewart.
Rasmus was clearly the best player in this trade but for whatever reason was unable to get along with Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa and his coaching staff and they felt the need to move him. Not only is Rasmus a pretty decent player already, his skills and young age have had scouts and baseball insiders drooling over him for years. Fans of other National League Central teams have to be extremely happy about his departure, and the fact that he could be replaced with Corey Patterson! Edwin Jackson is a hard-throwing righty with a no-hitter during his time with the Diamondbacks but his career ERA of 4.53 and extremely high walk rate aren’t sending fear through the NL Central.
Toronto’s incentive in the trade was clearly acquiring the young Rasmus and the potential he possesses. The Blue Jays have done a tremendous job acquiring assets in recent years - it’s just a shame they have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox, meanwhile, pick up a good bullpen arm and a pretty good pitching prospect in Stewart while saving some money in the meantime.
The other trade that has either gone down or soon will go down is Carlos Beltran heading west to the San Francisco Giants for some kind of package that includes pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. As part of the trade the Mets are reported to be picking up $4 million of the remaining $6.5 million owed to Beltran, with this being the final year of his contract. Beltran is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Giants who have been desperate for a middle of the order bat since Buster Posey’s injury. The Giants have plenty of pitching and giving up a prospect, grant it a darn-good one, is well worth the gamble for a team trying to win back-to-back World Series titles. The Mets were willing to eat much of the money owed to Beltran in order to pick up a premium prospect in a trade and they couldn’t have done much better than Wheeler who is ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball according to Keith Law’s latest rankings. The trade is a win for both teams as the Giants add a big piece to their title defense while the Mets pick up a legitimate starting pitching prospect for the future for a player they were likely to lose at the end of the season.
Crazy Week in Sports; Steelers Sign Ike
This marks a crazy week in sports as we try to track the rumors and realities of the Major League Baseball trade deadline as well as the free agent frenzy taking place in the NFL. We would need to take a vacation to track all of the wheeling and dealings going on in both leagues right now. With that in mind, instead of writing a long article on what may or may not happen this week around the leagues, I will post short updates and comments as major trades go down in baseball and major signings and/or trades happen in the NFL.
The biggest news to occur so far in Pittsburgh is the Steelers resigning (or more appropriately reaching an agreement) with cornerback Ike Taylor. Taylor is instrumental to the Steelers defense as their top cover corner and was unanimously considered the Steelers top free agent priority. The Steelers are also a perfect fit for Taylor’s physical style and the two sides were both better off being able to work out a deal. With Taylor’s signing in place, the Steelers are poised to have one of, if not the best defense in the NFL once again. The lockout and lack of preparation time should also be an advantage to the Steelers veteran defense who were probably better served by the time off than the lack of minicamps and meetings.
The biggest news to occur so far in Pittsburgh is the Steelers resigning (or more appropriately reaching an agreement) with cornerback Ike Taylor. Taylor is instrumental to the Steelers defense as their top cover corner and was unanimously considered the Steelers top free agent priority. The Steelers are also a perfect fit for Taylor’s physical style and the two sides were both better off being able to work out a deal. With Taylor’s signing in place, the Steelers are poised to have one of, if not the best defense in the NFL once again. The lockout and lack of preparation time should also be an advantage to the Steelers veteran defense who were probably better served by the time off than the lack of minicamps and meetings.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Andrew McCutchen, the All-Star
Andrew McCutchen, much like many of the Pirates’ opponents who have hit one in the gap this year, was robbed of his first All-Star appearance. I am not the first to write this and I won’t be the last but I had to comment on the fact that I find it absolutely ridiculous that “Cutch” is not on the NL All-Star roster.
Personally, I think the Pirates center fielder should be starting the game but I was OK with the fact that Matt Kemp, Lance Berkman and Ryan Braun were voted starters. All are having fantastic years and much of the fan voting was done before McCutchen’s recent tear. That being said, McCutchen has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement player) in the National League, trailing only Kemp in that metric. Braun is third, Berkman is tenth…again I think McCutchen should be starting, but the fact that he is not even on the team is beyond comprehension. As Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle said, and I am paraphrasing, “the players screwed up, NL Manager Bruce Bochy screwed up and MLB screwed up”.
The fact that McCutchen is not even on the “final five” list to be voted into the game by the fans is enough to justify firing whoever puts that list together. How is the second best player in the National League not even included on a list of players that includes Ian Kennedy and Michael Morse? Most casual fans don’t even know who those guys play for. (Kennedy is a pitcher for the Diamondbacks and Morse is an outfielder for the Nationals for those that didn’t know.) McCutchen is being talked about nationally as a young, exciting and fantastic player that will soon be mentioned among the top players in baseball for years to come. For MLB to leave him out of this year’s contest does a disservice for baseball fans around the country.
McCutchen’s absence once again merits a closer look at how these teams are constructed. To be honest, the fans actually do the best job. Sure, too many Yankees and Red Sox dominate the voting but for the most part those guys deserve it and the fans get it right. With the exception of Derek Jeter, who is in for the lifetime achievement award, it is hard to find fault with any of the starters for this year’s contest. The players and the respective teams’ managers choose the rest of the rosters and once again there is plenty of room for disagreement. The players have loyalties and frankly don’t care all that much about how other players are performing. Managers have loyalties to their own players, former players and other managers around the league and are often partial to those loyalties. In the end, it is the fans who get cheated by not getting the opportunity to see the best players in the game on the field.
The good news is that ultimately All-Star games and All-Star appearances don’t really matter. Andrew McCutchen is going to make plenty of All-Star appearances in his career beginning next season in all likelihood. If anything, McCutchen’s snub this year may have garnered him more attention nationally than if he were to be on the team, especially if he had been the Pirates’ lone participant. (This is no slight at Joel Hanrahan who absolutely should be on the team as well.) McCutchen is quickly becoming one of the league’s best players and will soon be recognized for it. Who knows, if the Pirates keep playing this well McCutchen could end up on the short list of MVP candidates by season’s end. That would sure make the All-Star game voters feel stupid because Andrew McCutchen is obviously an All-Star.
Personally, I think the Pirates center fielder should be starting the game but I was OK with the fact that Matt Kemp, Lance Berkman and Ryan Braun were voted starters. All are having fantastic years and much of the fan voting was done before McCutchen’s recent tear. That being said, McCutchen has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement player) in the National League, trailing only Kemp in that metric. Braun is third, Berkman is tenth…again I think McCutchen should be starting, but the fact that he is not even on the team is beyond comprehension. As Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle said, and I am paraphrasing, “the players screwed up, NL Manager Bruce Bochy screwed up and MLB screwed up”.
The fact that McCutchen is not even on the “final five” list to be voted into the game by the fans is enough to justify firing whoever puts that list together. How is the second best player in the National League not even included on a list of players that includes Ian Kennedy and Michael Morse? Most casual fans don’t even know who those guys play for. (Kennedy is a pitcher for the Diamondbacks and Morse is an outfielder for the Nationals for those that didn’t know.) McCutchen is being talked about nationally as a young, exciting and fantastic player that will soon be mentioned among the top players in baseball for years to come. For MLB to leave him out of this year’s contest does a disservice for baseball fans around the country.
McCutchen’s absence once again merits a closer look at how these teams are constructed. To be honest, the fans actually do the best job. Sure, too many Yankees and Red Sox dominate the voting but for the most part those guys deserve it and the fans get it right. With the exception of Derek Jeter, who is in for the lifetime achievement award, it is hard to find fault with any of the starters for this year’s contest. The players and the respective teams’ managers choose the rest of the rosters and once again there is plenty of room for disagreement. The players have loyalties and frankly don’t care all that much about how other players are performing. Managers have loyalties to their own players, former players and other managers around the league and are often partial to those loyalties. In the end, it is the fans who get cheated by not getting the opportunity to see the best players in the game on the field.
The good news is that ultimately All-Star games and All-Star appearances don’t really matter. Andrew McCutchen is going to make plenty of All-Star appearances in his career beginning next season in all likelihood. If anything, McCutchen’s snub this year may have garnered him more attention nationally than if he were to be on the team, especially if he had been the Pirates’ lone participant. (This is no slight at Joel Hanrahan who absolutely should be on the team as well.) McCutchen is quickly becoming one of the league’s best players and will soon be recognized for it. Who knows, if the Pirates keep playing this well McCutchen could end up on the short list of MVP candidates by season’s end. That would sure make the All-Star game voters feel stupid because Andrew McCutchen is obviously an All-Star.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Huntington Faces Tough Decisions
As we approach the midpoint of the baseball season and with the trade deadline less than a month away, Pirates management and General Manager Neal Huntington have a very interesting decision on their hands. The Pirates sit at 41-39, only 2 games out of first place in the NL Central and only one game back in the loss column. This is the Pirates best record through 80 games since the 18 year losing streak began and fans are excited. No doubt that the temptation is there for Huntington to make a trade to improve this ballclub and make a run at their first winning season and maybe even an outside shot at contention in nearly two decades.
Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.
It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.
While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.
At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.
As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.
I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.
Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.
It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.
While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.
At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.
As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.
I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Welcome Back Smorgasbord - King James, Terrelle Pryor and More!
The blog, much like LeBron James during the fourth quarters of the NBA Finals, has been on hiatus for a few weeks but we are back now to our regularly scheduled program. I will be back with columns every Wednesday and Friday with shorter posts sprinkled in here and there when thoughts and/or events come up. Since I have not commented on anything in a couple weeks here, what better way to jump back in than with an extended smorgasbord! Here we go…
- Where else can we start other than King James? Just when we thought he had fully arrived after the Boston and Chicago series he follows it up with a complete mental breakdown on the biggest stage of his career. (I must say that I had originally planned to do a column after the Chicago series saying how LeBron had finally arrived and was playing the way we all had envisioned him playing for so long…I’m glad that I didn’t have the time to write that post with how silly it would look just two weeks later!) Make no mistake - that was no choke job by LeBron. He wasn’t bricking foul shots or missing layups. He wasn’t throwing terrible passes or missing rebounds. He simply did not show up mentally following the game two loss for reasons that none of us can understand. Why did he stop attacking the basket? Why did his suffocating defense disappear? What in the world was going through his mind? Whatever it was, it was probably the same “thing” that pushed James into teaming up with Dwayne Wade in Miami in the first place. Whether it is a lack of a killer instinct, an unusual level of self-doubt that we typically do not see with players of his magnitude, or something else that none of us can put our fingers on, it is obvious that eight years into the NBA LeBron still does not have that “it” factor. Will he get there? I don’t know. My guess is that his talent alone will lead him to at least 2 or 3 championships and we will forget about many of these indiscretions. (It will be much the same way that we forget how badly Michael Jordan was criticized, called a gunner and how he couldn’t win the big one before he won his first title. That just sounds silly knowing what we know now.) At this point, however, I think we are close to realizing that he will never reach the absolute peak that his physical abilities call for because of something missing inside.
- Can somebody please explain to me what Cam Newton has that Terrelle Pryor doesn’t? Even if you consider Newton the better prospect, it cannot be the difference between the 1st overall pick in the draft and a 4th or 5th rounder as the reports are saying Pryor will go in the supplemental draft. Personally, I think both have a long way to go to be even a reasonably decent starting quarterback in the NFL and there is a good chance that neither amounts to much at that position. Both, however, have the same incredible upside with their tremendous physical abilities. Heck, I would even guess that as an athlete Pryor will grade out better than Newton. Just weird to me that some teams would value Newton’s upside to be that much more than Pryor’s despite the fact that it was Pryor who was a 3-year starter playing in a pro-style offense and not Newton. I will have much more on Pryor in Friday’s post.
- Game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight and what a crazy series it has been. Vancouver has squeaked out three 1-goal wins at home while losing the three games in Boston by a combined score of 17-3. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s goalie, has looked like two different players at home and on the road while Boston has reached this point on the back of its own net minder, Tim Thomas. I like the Canucks to win a close one tonight. You win games like these on the backs of your superstars (hey Penguins fans, Max Talbot is THE SUPERSTAR right?) and the Canucks have more of those players than the Bruins. Either way, I am sure looking forward to the game tonight. Nothing in sports is better than a game seven, and maybe no game sevens match the intensity and excitement of those in hockey.
- Major League baseball is over 40% of the way through its season and the lack of storylines continues to be a trend. Derek Jeter is now on the DL postponing his 3,000 hits bid, which was inevitable anyways. Almost every team in baseball is still alive for the postseason. There are a few players, Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson come to mind, having fantastic seasons but nobody who is doing something that approaches historical. Scoring continues to be down and there are more pitchers having good years but again, none are doing anything historic. The teams we thought would be good, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, etc. are good and outside of the Twins and Indians, the season has gone pretty much as expected. Really, the biggest story in baseball is the hometown Buccos and their quest to end the streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons. As we sit today, the Pirates are 33-33 and only 4 games out of the division lead. If the Pirates can continue to play at or around .500 I suspect the story will continue to pick up steam nationally.
- Speaking of the Pirates, it will be interesting to see what management does as the trade deadline approaches if they continue to hover around .500 and stay somewhat in contention. From a team building prospective, they should still be in “sell” mode but a run at .500 in August and September, especially if there is no football going on, would be a tremendous financial opportunity for the club and that is part of management’s job as well. I will have a lot more on this next week and my thoughts on what I think the Pirates should do if they continue to play good baseball into mid July.
- Pitt and Penn State have agreed to renew their rivalry on the football field starting in 2016. I know this is a big deal for the alumni bases but sorry, I can’t get excited over a football game five years from now. It is ridiculous that this game has not been played in over ten years and even when it resumes, it will lack the tradition and history the rivalry should have.
- College football is covered in scandal. The NFL is in danger of missing a portion or all of its upcoming season due to labor negotiations. The NBA and NHL have never been more popular. Is this the beginning of the end for football as America’s favorite sport? Probably not, and I suspect that the NFL and the Player’s Association will work something out in time because there is too much money to be lost but with a game that violent and that popular I think it is only a matter of time before the popularity decline begins.
- From my standpoint, the labor negotiations have been this year’s version of the Brett Favre comeback story as the most heavily covered story by the media that the general population doesn’t really care about. Most people could care less about how the two sides split up the $10 billion pie (despite the posturing by the player’s association and the owners blaming the other one) and really only care about whether there will be a season or not. I have kept an eye on the negotiations and court rulings from a general business interest but boy do I get annoyed when I have to listen to the daily updates on Sportscenter or on Mike and Mike when they are talking labor negotiations in mid-May. Despite being force-fed coverage of the lockout for the past four months, it will only be in the next couple of months when the pressure to get a deal done really picks up as fans start to become worried about a season actually being missed and players and owners alike realize that there may not be checks coming in the very near future.
- Where else can we start other than King James? Just when we thought he had fully arrived after the Boston and Chicago series he follows it up with a complete mental breakdown on the biggest stage of his career. (I must say that I had originally planned to do a column after the Chicago series saying how LeBron had finally arrived and was playing the way we all had envisioned him playing for so long…I’m glad that I didn’t have the time to write that post with how silly it would look just two weeks later!) Make no mistake - that was no choke job by LeBron. He wasn’t bricking foul shots or missing layups. He wasn’t throwing terrible passes or missing rebounds. He simply did not show up mentally following the game two loss for reasons that none of us can understand. Why did he stop attacking the basket? Why did his suffocating defense disappear? What in the world was going through his mind? Whatever it was, it was probably the same “thing” that pushed James into teaming up with Dwayne Wade in Miami in the first place. Whether it is a lack of a killer instinct, an unusual level of self-doubt that we typically do not see with players of his magnitude, or something else that none of us can put our fingers on, it is obvious that eight years into the NBA LeBron still does not have that “it” factor. Will he get there? I don’t know. My guess is that his talent alone will lead him to at least 2 or 3 championships and we will forget about many of these indiscretions. (It will be much the same way that we forget how badly Michael Jordan was criticized, called a gunner and how he couldn’t win the big one before he won his first title. That just sounds silly knowing what we know now.) At this point, however, I think we are close to realizing that he will never reach the absolute peak that his physical abilities call for because of something missing inside.
- Can somebody please explain to me what Cam Newton has that Terrelle Pryor doesn’t? Even if you consider Newton the better prospect, it cannot be the difference between the 1st overall pick in the draft and a 4th or 5th rounder as the reports are saying Pryor will go in the supplemental draft. Personally, I think both have a long way to go to be even a reasonably decent starting quarterback in the NFL and there is a good chance that neither amounts to much at that position. Both, however, have the same incredible upside with their tremendous physical abilities. Heck, I would even guess that as an athlete Pryor will grade out better than Newton. Just weird to me that some teams would value Newton’s upside to be that much more than Pryor’s despite the fact that it was Pryor who was a 3-year starter playing in a pro-style offense and not Newton. I will have much more on Pryor in Friday’s post.
- Game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight and what a crazy series it has been. Vancouver has squeaked out three 1-goal wins at home while losing the three games in Boston by a combined score of 17-3. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s goalie, has looked like two different players at home and on the road while Boston has reached this point on the back of its own net minder, Tim Thomas. I like the Canucks to win a close one tonight. You win games like these on the backs of your superstars (hey Penguins fans, Max Talbot is THE SUPERSTAR right?) and the Canucks have more of those players than the Bruins. Either way, I am sure looking forward to the game tonight. Nothing in sports is better than a game seven, and maybe no game sevens match the intensity and excitement of those in hockey.
- Major League baseball is over 40% of the way through its season and the lack of storylines continues to be a trend. Derek Jeter is now on the DL postponing his 3,000 hits bid, which was inevitable anyways. Almost every team in baseball is still alive for the postseason. There are a few players, Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson come to mind, having fantastic seasons but nobody who is doing something that approaches historical. Scoring continues to be down and there are more pitchers having good years but again, none are doing anything historic. The teams we thought would be good, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, etc. are good and outside of the Twins and Indians, the season has gone pretty much as expected. Really, the biggest story in baseball is the hometown Buccos and their quest to end the streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons. As we sit today, the Pirates are 33-33 and only 4 games out of the division lead. If the Pirates can continue to play at or around .500 I suspect the story will continue to pick up steam nationally.
- Speaking of the Pirates, it will be interesting to see what management does as the trade deadline approaches if they continue to hover around .500 and stay somewhat in contention. From a team building prospective, they should still be in “sell” mode but a run at .500 in August and September, especially if there is no football going on, would be a tremendous financial opportunity for the club and that is part of management’s job as well. I will have a lot more on this next week and my thoughts on what I think the Pirates should do if they continue to play good baseball into mid July.
- Pitt and Penn State have agreed to renew their rivalry on the football field starting in 2016. I know this is a big deal for the alumni bases but sorry, I can’t get excited over a football game five years from now. It is ridiculous that this game has not been played in over ten years and even when it resumes, it will lack the tradition and history the rivalry should have.
- College football is covered in scandal. The NFL is in danger of missing a portion or all of its upcoming season due to labor negotiations. The NBA and NHL have never been more popular. Is this the beginning of the end for football as America’s favorite sport? Probably not, and I suspect that the NFL and the Player’s Association will work something out in time because there is too much money to be lost but with a game that violent and that popular I think it is only a matter of time before the popularity decline begins.
- From my standpoint, the labor negotiations have been this year’s version of the Brett Favre comeback story as the most heavily covered story by the media that the general population doesn’t really care about. Most people could care less about how the two sides split up the $10 billion pie (despite the posturing by the player’s association and the owners blaming the other one) and really only care about whether there will be a season or not. I have kept an eye on the negotiations and court rulings from a general business interest but boy do I get annoyed when I have to listen to the daily updates on Sportscenter or on Mike and Mike when they are talking labor negotiations in mid-May. Despite being force-fed coverage of the lockout for the past four months, it will only be in the next couple of months when the pressure to get a deal done really picks up as fans start to become worried about a season actually being missed and players and owners alike realize that there may not be checks coming in the very near future.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Friday Smorgasbord!
No need for a preamble, let’s dive right in!
• The Penguins played what quite possibly was their best game of the season since Crosby’s injury in game one. It was hard to tell if the Penguins were able to raise their level of play that much or if the Lighting were a little shell-shocked by the intensity of the playoffs. Either way, if the Penguins continue to get that kind of play from Marc-Andre Fleury in net and the power play continues to show some life, the Pens are going to be a tough out for anyone even without Sid. With him, I think they just might become the favorite once again.
• Six of the eight teams I predicted to move on in round one won their opening game. I am not sure if that is good or if missing the two upsets everyone was calling for is bad. It is still early, however, and winning game one doesn’t mean a whole lot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hopefully the Penguins remember that.
• So much for that great Pirates’ start. After losing five of their last six, the Buccos are now 5-7 and trail four other teams in the NL Central. Sure the standings, and even the records, are not very important this time of the year but it would have been nice if this team could have sustained some momentum from the strong early start.
• The good news is that the Pirates starting rotation has continued to perform pretty well. Outside of the opening day defeat the Pirates have been in every game thanks to their starting pitching. Hopefully the pitching doesn’t deteriorate when the bats decide to wake up.
• Fresh off seeing him in person here in Pittsburgh last week is it time to start calling Troy Tulowitzki the best player in baseball? Well let me be the first! You remember when the national outlets start talking about this guy as the best player in the game that you heard it here first. Going back to last September, “Tulo” has hit 22 home runs in his last 42 games while playing the best shortstop in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy so we can all enjoy a full season’s worth.
• The guy Tulowitzki reminds me of is a young Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez, by the way, is far from done himself. About the only player in baseball matching what the Rockies shortstop is doing is the former best player in the game. Tulowitzki is first and Rodriguez is second in the majors in OPS and nobody else is close through the early part of the season.
• How about that Masters finish on Sunday? That was quite possibly the best golf on television I have seen with so many guys hitting important shot after important shot. It very well might have been the return of Tiger Woods as well. For more on that, I know I can’t say it any better than the Sports Guy did, so I will just link to his column: Bill Simmons
• I was going to post my NBA playoff predictions as part of the Smorgasbord but I will hold off and have a separate post going up Saturday morning. Check back then to see who I like in the opening round and a little commentary on the foregone conclusion that Derrick Rose is the NBA MVP this year…
• The Penguins played what quite possibly was their best game of the season since Crosby’s injury in game one. It was hard to tell if the Penguins were able to raise their level of play that much or if the Lighting were a little shell-shocked by the intensity of the playoffs. Either way, if the Penguins continue to get that kind of play from Marc-Andre Fleury in net and the power play continues to show some life, the Pens are going to be a tough out for anyone even without Sid. With him, I think they just might become the favorite once again.
• Six of the eight teams I predicted to move on in round one won their opening game. I am not sure if that is good or if missing the two upsets everyone was calling for is bad. It is still early, however, and winning game one doesn’t mean a whole lot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hopefully the Penguins remember that.
• So much for that great Pirates’ start. After losing five of their last six, the Buccos are now 5-7 and trail four other teams in the NL Central. Sure the standings, and even the records, are not very important this time of the year but it would have been nice if this team could have sustained some momentum from the strong early start.
• The good news is that the Pirates starting rotation has continued to perform pretty well. Outside of the opening day defeat the Pirates have been in every game thanks to their starting pitching. Hopefully the pitching doesn’t deteriorate when the bats decide to wake up.
• Fresh off seeing him in person here in Pittsburgh last week is it time to start calling Troy Tulowitzki the best player in baseball? Well let me be the first! You remember when the national outlets start talking about this guy as the best player in the game that you heard it here first. Going back to last September, “Tulo” has hit 22 home runs in his last 42 games while playing the best shortstop in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy so we can all enjoy a full season’s worth.
• The guy Tulowitzki reminds me of is a young Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez, by the way, is far from done himself. About the only player in baseball matching what the Rockies shortstop is doing is the former best player in the game. Tulowitzki is first and Rodriguez is second in the majors in OPS and nobody else is close through the early part of the season.
• How about that Masters finish on Sunday? That was quite possibly the best golf on television I have seen with so many guys hitting important shot after important shot. It very well might have been the return of Tiger Woods as well. For more on that, I know I can’t say it any better than the Sports Guy did, so I will just link to his column: Bill Simmons
• I was going to post my NBA playoff predictions as part of the Smorgasbord but I will hold off and have a separate post going up Saturday morning. Check back then to see who I like in the opening round and a little commentary on the foregone conclusion that Derrick Rose is the NBA MVP this year…
Monday, April 4, 2011
Pirates Should Improve, But How Much
Your 2011 Pittsburgh Baseball Club got off to a nice start, winning two out of three games in Chicago over the weekend. Of course, winning two of your first three is nothing to write home about but for a team that won a total of 17 games on the road last year, winning two out of your first three away from PNC Park can be taken as a positive sign.
We all know about the young power pitchers down on the farm, the fantastic draft the Pirates had last year, the Pirates’ future catcher in Tony Sanchez and all of the positive steps towards the future that the organization peppers us with about building a winner long term, but let’s forget about that for today and focus on this year’s team. How do we expect this year’s team to do and should we expect any improvement on the dreadful season the Pirates put together last year?
Thursday on the blog you probably noticed that I picked the Buccos to win 70 games this year. That is probably a little optimistic, but with the Vegas line being at 67 wins I do not think 70 wins is overly optimistic or out of the realm of possibility. Sure, improving 13 games over the previous season is no easy task but improvement from last year is almost inevitable. It is very hard for a professional baseball team to lose 100 games in a season; to lose 105 is downright embarrassing. Even if the Pirates had not improved their talent level at all, I would have still expected a 5-7 game improvement by pure statistical reasoning. The Pirates did, however, make some meaningful improvements to the line-up and their pitching can’t possibly be any worse than it was a year ago. Let’s take a little closer look at the ballclub now and why I think 70 wins is a real possibility.
The Pirates opening day line-up looked like this:
LF Jose Tabata
2B Neil Walker
CF Andrew McCutchen
1B Lyle Overbay
3B Pedro Alvarez
C Ryan Doumit
RF Garrett Jones
SS Ronny Cedeno
I am not going to dive into the advanced metrics of this line-up (email me if you would like to see some of the numbers), but believe me when I tell you that this line-up has the potential to be a middle of the pack run producer in the National League, especially against right-handed pitching. Against left-handers, the Pirates will sub Matt Diaz in right field for the lefty Jones and will play catcher Chris Snyder over Doumit when he gets healthy. That line-up is not as good as the one running out there against righties but it is still strong enough for the Pirates to have a league average offense. That is a far cry from last year when the team was stuck with Aki Iwamura, Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge taking meaningful at-bats for half the season.
One key for this Pirates line-up is for Manager Clint Hurdle to stick to the platoon system. It gives the Pirates the strongest possibility to out-produce the individual parts they have. Too often managers stray from their original platoon systems because one guy gets hot, one guy gets cold, etc. but for the Pirates to maximize their players’ abilities, it is on Hurdle to put them in the right positions to succeed and that means sticking to the platoons.
Defensively, the Pirates were the worst team in the majors last year. The bad news is that the Pirates will have much of the same team in the field this year that it finished last year with. The good news is that most of the Pirates are young and defense has shown to dramatically improve with experience. McCutchen should be much improved in center with another year of experience, ditto for Tabata. Neil Walker can only get better and being that last year was his first season playing second base and he is a great athlete, I think a big improvement is in store. Lyle Overbay is a marked improvement over the myriad of guys the Pirates ran out there last year at first and Ronny Cedeno should improve with another year under his belt as well. At catcher, Doumit is still a liability but Snyder is known for his defensive ability and should bring a little stability when he’s behind the plate. Nobody will mistake Pedro for Brooks Robinson or the right-field platoon situation of Jones/Diaz for Roberto Clemente, but if the Pirates can be solid at the other positions there should at least be a noticeable improvement in the defense.
That was most of the good news surrounding the 2011 Pirates but now we get to the pitching. I guess the silver lining with the Buccos’ pitching is that it cannot possibly be any worse than it was last year when the staff allowed the most runs in the major leagues. The other good news, I guess, is that Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald and Charlie Morton appear to at least have the raw stuff to become legitimate major league starters and Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm would make most teams’ staffs as 4th or 5th starters. The problem for the Pirates pitching staff is that they have no legitimate ace, or really even a #2 or #3 starter for that matter. All five starters look like they could be legitimate major league starters but no more than a 4th or 5th starter on a good team. I do see improvement coming from Ohlendorf and McDonald and the diehard fans are sure to hold on to hope that Charlie Morton and his “electric stuff” develop, so the possibility of at least an OK starting rotation is possible. If the Pirates can get pitching on par with at least the bottom half of the league and not have clearly the worst staff in baseball, they can win their share of games with an improved line-up.
All together I see a year of improvement for the Pirates and at least the beginning of a basis to compete a few years down the line. If nothing else, this year provides an opportunity to see how Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and the young starters continue to develop. If the proper steps are really being taken by Pirates management to build a contender in a few years, the biggest key will be the development of the players currently on the roster. I expect improvement, but how much is the question.
We all know about the young power pitchers down on the farm, the fantastic draft the Pirates had last year, the Pirates’ future catcher in Tony Sanchez and all of the positive steps towards the future that the organization peppers us with about building a winner long term, but let’s forget about that for today and focus on this year’s team. How do we expect this year’s team to do and should we expect any improvement on the dreadful season the Pirates put together last year?
Thursday on the blog you probably noticed that I picked the Buccos to win 70 games this year. That is probably a little optimistic, but with the Vegas line being at 67 wins I do not think 70 wins is overly optimistic or out of the realm of possibility. Sure, improving 13 games over the previous season is no easy task but improvement from last year is almost inevitable. It is very hard for a professional baseball team to lose 100 games in a season; to lose 105 is downright embarrassing. Even if the Pirates had not improved their talent level at all, I would have still expected a 5-7 game improvement by pure statistical reasoning. The Pirates did, however, make some meaningful improvements to the line-up and their pitching can’t possibly be any worse than it was a year ago. Let’s take a little closer look at the ballclub now and why I think 70 wins is a real possibility.
The Pirates opening day line-up looked like this:
LF Jose Tabata
2B Neil Walker
CF Andrew McCutchen
1B Lyle Overbay
3B Pedro Alvarez
C Ryan Doumit
RF Garrett Jones
SS Ronny Cedeno
I am not going to dive into the advanced metrics of this line-up (email me if you would like to see some of the numbers), but believe me when I tell you that this line-up has the potential to be a middle of the pack run producer in the National League, especially against right-handed pitching. Against left-handers, the Pirates will sub Matt Diaz in right field for the lefty Jones and will play catcher Chris Snyder over Doumit when he gets healthy. That line-up is not as good as the one running out there against righties but it is still strong enough for the Pirates to have a league average offense. That is a far cry from last year when the team was stuck with Aki Iwamura, Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge taking meaningful at-bats for half the season.
One key for this Pirates line-up is for Manager Clint Hurdle to stick to the platoon system. It gives the Pirates the strongest possibility to out-produce the individual parts they have. Too often managers stray from their original platoon systems because one guy gets hot, one guy gets cold, etc. but for the Pirates to maximize their players’ abilities, it is on Hurdle to put them in the right positions to succeed and that means sticking to the platoons.
Defensively, the Pirates were the worst team in the majors last year. The bad news is that the Pirates will have much of the same team in the field this year that it finished last year with. The good news is that most of the Pirates are young and defense has shown to dramatically improve with experience. McCutchen should be much improved in center with another year of experience, ditto for Tabata. Neil Walker can only get better and being that last year was his first season playing second base and he is a great athlete, I think a big improvement is in store. Lyle Overbay is a marked improvement over the myriad of guys the Pirates ran out there last year at first and Ronny Cedeno should improve with another year under his belt as well. At catcher, Doumit is still a liability but Snyder is known for his defensive ability and should bring a little stability when he’s behind the plate. Nobody will mistake Pedro for Brooks Robinson or the right-field platoon situation of Jones/Diaz for Roberto Clemente, but if the Pirates can be solid at the other positions there should at least be a noticeable improvement in the defense.
That was most of the good news surrounding the 2011 Pirates but now we get to the pitching. I guess the silver lining with the Buccos’ pitching is that it cannot possibly be any worse than it was last year when the staff allowed the most runs in the major leagues. The other good news, I guess, is that Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald and Charlie Morton appear to at least have the raw stuff to become legitimate major league starters and Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm would make most teams’ staffs as 4th or 5th starters. The problem for the Pirates pitching staff is that they have no legitimate ace, or really even a #2 or #3 starter for that matter. All five starters look like they could be legitimate major league starters but no more than a 4th or 5th starter on a good team. I do see improvement coming from Ohlendorf and McDonald and the diehard fans are sure to hold on to hope that Charlie Morton and his “electric stuff” develop, so the possibility of at least an OK starting rotation is possible. If the Pirates can get pitching on par with at least the bottom half of the league and not have clearly the worst staff in baseball, they can win their share of games with an improved line-up.
All together I see a year of improvement for the Pirates and at least the beginning of a basis to compete a few years down the line. If nothing else, this year provides an opportunity to see how Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and the young starters continue to develop. If the proper steps are really being taken by Pirates management to build a contender in a few years, the biggest key will be the development of the players currently on the roster. I expect improvement, but how much is the question.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Opening Day 2011!
The 2011 Major League Baseball season is upon us and every year it seems that baseball season jumps out at us sooner and sooner. This year that IS the case as the season begins four days earlier than it has in years past. That just means more snow delays and 30 degree games in the North but hey, who cares, baseball is back!
Plenty of big names switched teams in the offseason with Cliff Lee teaming up with the already phenomenal Phillies rotation, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez joining the Red Sox, Adam Dunn to the White Sox, Vlad Guerrero and other veterans joined the youngsters in Baltimore, Manny and Johnny Damon headed south to the Rays and even the lowly Nationals spent big money to acquire Jayson Werth in free agency.
The noticeable trend there with the exception of Lee, Werth and Zach Greinke who was traded to Milwaukee, is that most of the big names either went to or stayed in the American League. In the National League, the biggest news was probably the inability of the Cardinals to lock up Albert Pujols to a long term deal. The Dodgers, Giants, Reds and Braves were just a few of the other contenders in the NL who remained relatively the same team from last season. It should be interesting to see how those strategies pan out and how the players who did join new teams impact the pennant races. Here is my quick preview and predictions, division by division, for the 2011 MLB season:
American League East
While the Red Sox were upgrading their line-up and defense and the Rays were bringing in veterans to stabilize their line-up, the biggest story in the offseason in the AL East was the Yankees inability to land Cliff Lee or another top-tier pitcher to stabilize their rotation. Still, the Yankees have the line-up and a lights out bullpen that should cover for the lack of depth in their rotation that should have them fighting for the division with the Red Sox. The Rays would be the favorite in pretty much every other division in baseball but are relegated to third in the lopsided East. Don’t rule these guys out, however, as the young arms continue to develop and Evan Longoria is one of the best players in baseball. If the Yanks or Sox suffer injuries or slip up at all, the Rays will be right there to pounce. Both Toronto and Baltimore are also mightily improved but in this division that hardly matters. Put the Blue Jays in most any other division and they are competing for the wild card at worst. Same with the Orioles, who continue to develop the great young arms they have in the system and added a few bats to stabilize the line-up.
Boston 94-68
New York 92 -70
Tampa Bay 88-74
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 77-85
American League Central
We should probably just pencil in the Minnesota Twins for 90 wins and the division crown because no matter how much we try to overanalyze this division, that is what seems to happen every year. Minnesota has won the division six times in the last ten years, averaging nearly 89 wins per season over that stretch. The Twins hope to have a healthy Justin Morneau back from his post-concussion symptoms to help stabilize an offense that should be able to score enough runs to go along with a deep pitching staff. I love the addition of Adam Dunn to the White Sox line-up and with their pitching depth and strong bullpen, Chicago should give the Twins everything they can handle for the division title. The Tigers are the third team that could compete for the division but they would probably need many things to break right and another MVP type season from Miguel Cabrera. Cleveland and Kansas City are by far the worst teams in the American League, although the Royals seem to have plenty of talent on the farm that could begin to arrive this year.
Minnesota 90-72
Chicago 88-74
Detroit 82-80
Kansas City 64-98
Cleveland 63-99
American League West
Texas’s inability to resign Cliff Lee probably opens this division back up to the fantastic pitching coming from the rest of the contenders but the Rangers still have the West’s best line-up and enough pitching to get by. The addition of Adrian Beltre bolsters their already outstanding line-up and helps sure up a terrific defensive infield. If the Rangers’ pitching falters, however, Anaheim is probably next in line with solid pitching depth and enough pop on offense, pending the healthy return of Kendrys Morales, to challenge. Oakland has a fantastic young pitching rotation led by Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill but still may lack the offense to truly contend. Seattle has the AL’s best pitcher in Felix Hernandez but not much else.
Texas 87-75
Anaheim 83-79
Oakland 82-80
Seattle 74-88
National League East
Cole Hamels was the ace of the staff when the Phillies won the World Series just three years ago. Now he’s the #4 pitcher on baseball’s best pitching staff since the mid-90’s Braves. Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels….just sick, and Joe Blanton isn’t such a bad #5. The Phillies offense is not as potent as it once was, and Chase Utley’s health is a huge concernt, but the Phils still have enough to win the most games in the National League pending the starters’ health. I have the Braves penciled in as the NL Wild Card as we sit today but if Jayson Heyward emerges as a star, Freddie Freeman holds his own as a rookie and Chipper starts to resemble the Chipper of old, the Braves could be right there with Philadelphia. If those things don’t happen, however, the Braves could find themselves in a dogfight with the Marlins and the rest of the NL Central and West contenders for that fourth playoff spot. Speaking of the Marlins, they could easily be this year’s surprise contenders. A solid offense led by Hanley Ramirez and young guns Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison combined with a sneaky good pitching rotation led by Josh Johnson could be enough to push Florida towards the top of the NL standings. New York still has Wright, Reyes and Beltran but no pitching and Washington eagerly awaits the return of Stephen Strasburg and the arrival of Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia 95-67
Atlanta 90 -72
Florida 85-77
New York 78-84
Washington 62-100
National League Central
The NL Central is probably the hardest division to forecast and it has nothing to do with the bottom two teams. If things break right for them I could see Cincinnati, Milwaukee or St. Louis running away with the division or even Chicago finding a way to win it, although that is a major long shot with their pitching. Conversely, if things break wrong for any of those teams I could see them falling out of the race by the All-Star break. In the end, I think we are looking at an extremely tight race between the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals with the Reds pitching depth ultimately pushing them over the top. I loved the Brewers acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum and their go for it now attitude, an approach that no other team in this wide open division took. As for the Cards, they were probably the favorite until the season ending injury to ace Adam Wainwright. As bad as the Buccos are, and I will have a more in-depth preview tomorrow, I would still rather be in their organization’s position than that of the Astros.
Cincinnati 88-74
Milwaukee 87 -75
St. Louis 85-77
Chicago 81-81
Pittsburgh 70-92
Houston 68-94
National League West
I’m predicting my first real upset here with the Los Angeles Dodgers narrowly edging out the defending World Series champs for the division crown. I just like the make-up of this Dodgers team with the arms of Kershaw, Billingsley and Lilly leading the rotation and a big bounce back year from Matt Kemp. The Giants will be strong again led by their fantastic pitching staff but I think they overachieved a bit with the bats last year and could suffer a bit from the age-old disease known as World Series hangover. Colorado should be in the mix as well if Troy Tulowitski can stay healthy and their starters continue where they left off last year. As for the Padres and Diamondbacks….there’s always next year.
Los Angeles 89-73
San Francisco 88 -74
Colorado 84-78
San Diego 69-93
Arizona 65-97
MVP
AL: Robinson Cano
NL: Ryan Braun
Cy Young
AL: Felix Hernandez
NL: Clayton Kershaw
Rookie of the Year
AL: Jeremy Hellickson
NL: Freddie Freeman
Coach of the Year
AL: Ozzie Guillen
NL: Don Mattingly
AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas
New York over Minnesota
New York over Boston
NL Playoffs
Philadelphia over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Los Angeles
Atlanta over Philadelphia
World Series
New York over Atlanta
Plenty of big names switched teams in the offseason with Cliff Lee teaming up with the already phenomenal Phillies rotation, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez joining the Red Sox, Adam Dunn to the White Sox, Vlad Guerrero and other veterans joined the youngsters in Baltimore, Manny and Johnny Damon headed south to the Rays and even the lowly Nationals spent big money to acquire Jayson Werth in free agency.
The noticeable trend there with the exception of Lee, Werth and Zach Greinke who was traded to Milwaukee, is that most of the big names either went to or stayed in the American League. In the National League, the biggest news was probably the inability of the Cardinals to lock up Albert Pujols to a long term deal. The Dodgers, Giants, Reds and Braves were just a few of the other contenders in the NL who remained relatively the same team from last season. It should be interesting to see how those strategies pan out and how the players who did join new teams impact the pennant races. Here is my quick preview and predictions, division by division, for the 2011 MLB season:
American League East
While the Red Sox were upgrading their line-up and defense and the Rays were bringing in veterans to stabilize their line-up, the biggest story in the offseason in the AL East was the Yankees inability to land Cliff Lee or another top-tier pitcher to stabilize their rotation. Still, the Yankees have the line-up and a lights out bullpen that should cover for the lack of depth in their rotation that should have them fighting for the division with the Red Sox. The Rays would be the favorite in pretty much every other division in baseball but are relegated to third in the lopsided East. Don’t rule these guys out, however, as the young arms continue to develop and Evan Longoria is one of the best players in baseball. If the Yanks or Sox suffer injuries or slip up at all, the Rays will be right there to pounce. Both Toronto and Baltimore are also mightily improved but in this division that hardly matters. Put the Blue Jays in most any other division and they are competing for the wild card at worst. Same with the Orioles, who continue to develop the great young arms they have in the system and added a few bats to stabilize the line-up.
Boston 94-68
New York 92 -70
Tampa Bay 88-74
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 77-85
American League Central
We should probably just pencil in the Minnesota Twins for 90 wins and the division crown because no matter how much we try to overanalyze this division, that is what seems to happen every year. Minnesota has won the division six times in the last ten years, averaging nearly 89 wins per season over that stretch. The Twins hope to have a healthy Justin Morneau back from his post-concussion symptoms to help stabilize an offense that should be able to score enough runs to go along with a deep pitching staff. I love the addition of Adam Dunn to the White Sox line-up and with their pitching depth and strong bullpen, Chicago should give the Twins everything they can handle for the division title. The Tigers are the third team that could compete for the division but they would probably need many things to break right and another MVP type season from Miguel Cabrera. Cleveland and Kansas City are by far the worst teams in the American League, although the Royals seem to have plenty of talent on the farm that could begin to arrive this year.
Minnesota 90-72
Chicago 88-74
Detroit 82-80
Kansas City 64-98
Cleveland 63-99
American League West
Texas’s inability to resign Cliff Lee probably opens this division back up to the fantastic pitching coming from the rest of the contenders but the Rangers still have the West’s best line-up and enough pitching to get by. The addition of Adrian Beltre bolsters their already outstanding line-up and helps sure up a terrific defensive infield. If the Rangers’ pitching falters, however, Anaheim is probably next in line with solid pitching depth and enough pop on offense, pending the healthy return of Kendrys Morales, to challenge. Oakland has a fantastic young pitching rotation led by Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill but still may lack the offense to truly contend. Seattle has the AL’s best pitcher in Felix Hernandez but not much else.
Texas 87-75
Anaheim 83-79
Oakland 82-80
Seattle 74-88
National League East
Cole Hamels was the ace of the staff when the Phillies won the World Series just three years ago. Now he’s the #4 pitcher on baseball’s best pitching staff since the mid-90’s Braves. Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels….just sick, and Joe Blanton isn’t such a bad #5. The Phillies offense is not as potent as it once was, and Chase Utley’s health is a huge concernt, but the Phils still have enough to win the most games in the National League pending the starters’ health. I have the Braves penciled in as the NL Wild Card as we sit today but if Jayson Heyward emerges as a star, Freddie Freeman holds his own as a rookie and Chipper starts to resemble the Chipper of old, the Braves could be right there with Philadelphia. If those things don’t happen, however, the Braves could find themselves in a dogfight with the Marlins and the rest of the NL Central and West contenders for that fourth playoff spot. Speaking of the Marlins, they could easily be this year’s surprise contenders. A solid offense led by Hanley Ramirez and young guns Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison combined with a sneaky good pitching rotation led by Josh Johnson could be enough to push Florida towards the top of the NL standings. New York still has Wright, Reyes and Beltran but no pitching and Washington eagerly awaits the return of Stephen Strasburg and the arrival of Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia 95-67
Atlanta 90 -72
Florida 85-77
New York 78-84
Washington 62-100
National League Central
The NL Central is probably the hardest division to forecast and it has nothing to do with the bottom two teams. If things break right for them I could see Cincinnati, Milwaukee or St. Louis running away with the division or even Chicago finding a way to win it, although that is a major long shot with their pitching. Conversely, if things break wrong for any of those teams I could see them falling out of the race by the All-Star break. In the end, I think we are looking at an extremely tight race between the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals with the Reds pitching depth ultimately pushing them over the top. I loved the Brewers acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum and their go for it now attitude, an approach that no other team in this wide open division took. As for the Cards, they were probably the favorite until the season ending injury to ace Adam Wainwright. As bad as the Buccos are, and I will have a more in-depth preview tomorrow, I would still rather be in their organization’s position than that of the Astros.
Cincinnati 88-74
Milwaukee 87 -75
St. Louis 85-77
Chicago 81-81
Pittsburgh 70-92
Houston 68-94
National League West
I’m predicting my first real upset here with the Los Angeles Dodgers narrowly edging out the defending World Series champs for the division crown. I just like the make-up of this Dodgers team with the arms of Kershaw, Billingsley and Lilly leading the rotation and a big bounce back year from Matt Kemp. The Giants will be strong again led by their fantastic pitching staff but I think they overachieved a bit with the bats last year and could suffer a bit from the age-old disease known as World Series hangover. Colorado should be in the mix as well if Troy Tulowitski can stay healthy and their starters continue where they left off last year. As for the Padres and Diamondbacks….there’s always next year.
Los Angeles 89-73
San Francisco 88 -74
Colorado 84-78
San Diego 69-93
Arizona 65-97
MVP
AL: Robinson Cano
NL: Ryan Braun
Cy Young
AL: Felix Hernandez
NL: Clayton Kershaw
Rookie of the Year
AL: Jeremy Hellickson
NL: Freddie Freeman
Coach of the Year
AL: Ozzie Guillen
NL: Don Mattingly
AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas
New York over Minnesota
New York over Boston
NL Playoffs
Philadelphia over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Los Angeles
Atlanta over Philadelphia
World Series
New York over Atlanta
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Cliff Lee (and more) Smorgasbord!
There has been a ton going on in the sports world over the past week or so and it seems like I have done nothing but write about the NFL lately. What better way to cover a bunch of topics around the sports world than a smorgasbord!
· I was listening to Mike and Mike this morning on my drive in to work and many of their listeners were criticizing Cliff Lee for his decision to join the Phillies rather than the Yankees or Rangers who were offering more money and/or the potential to be “the man”. For what it’s worth, I think Lee made a fabulous decision for himself. He gets to pitch in the National League for the next five or six years, something that could allow him to go down as an all-time great while prolonging his career, he’ll join a Philadelphia team that now has to be the favorite for AT LEAST the next three World Series Championships, he obviously enjoyed his time in Philadelphia previously and it is reported that his wife really enjoyed their time, and in the end the difference in money really isn’t all that great when you factor in cost of living, etc. Lee made an informed decision that will make him and his family happy, kudos to him.
· I picked Philadelphia to win the World Series last year and they let me down when they ran into the Giants’ pitching buzz saw. I got a pretty good suspicion this morning that I will be picking the Phillies again next year.
· As a friend said to me earlier today, “I think these guys getting to pick where they live is a quite underrated part of the FA process. “ I couldn’t agree more.
· Another friend of mine is a die-hard Yankee fan and it sounds like New Yorkers are getting just a little bit worried with their inability to sign Lee and the Red Sox’ additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. The Yankees would be foolish to make a panic decision and sign Carl Pavano for too much money or anything of that sort. The Yanks are still the clear favorite for the AL Wild Card and a rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettite and I’m guessing the rookie Nova or whomever (I still think they should give Joba Chamberlain another shot) will be fine for the first half of the season. The Yankees should wait until the trade deadline and see what's available then.
· I am longing for the days when we can talk about the Pirates big off-season moves! No disrespect to Scott Olsen, Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz, of course.
· Those comparing Lee’s situation to LeBron James’ “decision” are crazy. Lee didn’t pass up a chance to be “the man” in Texas or was scared off by the pressure in New York. Baseball is a totally different sport where very rarely can a player carry his team individually for an extended stretch and especially as a pitcher who can only win the game he pitches every four or five days. Lee’s legacy can perhaps be enhanced by his decision to join the Phillies where LeBron’s will never be the same.
· Speaking of James, I am not hearing much from the Heat bashers these days after LeBron and company won their ninth straight game last night, all by double digits. Those that were jumping on Miami earlier in the season for their lack of a point guard and/or center and saying that LeBron and Dwayne Wade could not play together just do not understand basketball. The Big Three (including Chris Bosh) were simply playing well below their usual greatness. Things are slowly rounding into form and I have never wavered from my stance that this team will be there in the end. I did underestimate how deep and talented Boston is this year, especially with Kevin Garnett looking like he has found the fountain of youth, but I am sticking by my prediction that the Heat are the Eastern Conference representative in the Finals.
· I am sure everyone has heard by now about the New York Jets strength coach Sal Alosi tripping a Miami Dolphins player trying to cover a punt on Sunday and being subsequently suspended for the remainder of the season and fined 25k by the Jets. I think this story is getting a little too much coverage to be honest. For one, it is being reported that teams purposely position these coaches on the sidelines to be in the way of gunners if they happen to be pushed out of bounds. If teams are instilling this mentality, something that I had never thought about before but it says a whole lot about what a cutthroat business the NFL is, it was only a matter of time before something like this happened. The guy has apologized, let’s let him take his punishment and move on from the story.
· The coaching dominoes in the college ranks are beginning to fall with Al Golden heading to Miami, Will Muschamp to Florida and Jerry Kill to Minnesota. I do not mind that Pitt is taking its time with this decision, it is an awfully important time and hire for this program. As of yesterday it sounded like Oklahoma State Offensive Coordinator Dana Holgorsen was the front-runner for the job but he has since pulled himself from consideration. Holgorsen is now being linked to West Virginia if Bill Stewart is let go. Some of the names being circulated now, including Miami of Ohio coach Mike Haywood, are not exactly the most inspiring names out there.
· That being said, Pitt should not be trying to find the “most inspiring name” if you don’t mind me quoting myself. Steve Pederson’s job is to find the best man for this job, no matter if he is a current head coach, coordinator or a certain sports blog writer if anyone feels like passing my name on to him.
· Lastly, you may have thought that I forgot about a certain team in Pittsburgh that has won a few games in a row. I have not forgotten about them but I do not want to be the jinx that halts this winning streak by mentioning them in the blog…(damn, I hope this doesn’t count!) I will have plenty to say about the streak and their star player’s own little streak when they come to an end.
· I was listening to Mike and Mike this morning on my drive in to work and many of their listeners were criticizing Cliff Lee for his decision to join the Phillies rather than the Yankees or Rangers who were offering more money and/or the potential to be “the man”. For what it’s worth, I think Lee made a fabulous decision for himself. He gets to pitch in the National League for the next five or six years, something that could allow him to go down as an all-time great while prolonging his career, he’ll join a Philadelphia team that now has to be the favorite for AT LEAST the next three World Series Championships, he obviously enjoyed his time in Philadelphia previously and it is reported that his wife really enjoyed their time, and in the end the difference in money really isn’t all that great when you factor in cost of living, etc. Lee made an informed decision that will make him and his family happy, kudos to him.
· I picked Philadelphia to win the World Series last year and they let me down when they ran into the Giants’ pitching buzz saw. I got a pretty good suspicion this morning that I will be picking the Phillies again next year.
· As a friend said to me earlier today, “I think these guys getting to pick where they live is a quite underrated part of the FA process. “ I couldn’t agree more.
· Another friend of mine is a die-hard Yankee fan and it sounds like New Yorkers are getting just a little bit worried with their inability to sign Lee and the Red Sox’ additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. The Yankees would be foolish to make a panic decision and sign Carl Pavano for too much money or anything of that sort. The Yanks are still the clear favorite for the AL Wild Card and a rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettite and I’m guessing the rookie Nova or whomever (I still think they should give Joba Chamberlain another shot) will be fine for the first half of the season. The Yankees should wait until the trade deadline and see what's available then.
· I am longing for the days when we can talk about the Pirates big off-season moves! No disrespect to Scott Olsen, Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz, of course.
· Those comparing Lee’s situation to LeBron James’ “decision” are crazy. Lee didn’t pass up a chance to be “the man” in Texas or was scared off by the pressure in New York. Baseball is a totally different sport where very rarely can a player carry his team individually for an extended stretch and especially as a pitcher who can only win the game he pitches every four or five days. Lee’s legacy can perhaps be enhanced by his decision to join the Phillies where LeBron’s will never be the same.
· Speaking of James, I am not hearing much from the Heat bashers these days after LeBron and company won their ninth straight game last night, all by double digits. Those that were jumping on Miami earlier in the season for their lack of a point guard and/or center and saying that LeBron and Dwayne Wade could not play together just do not understand basketball. The Big Three (including Chris Bosh) were simply playing well below their usual greatness. Things are slowly rounding into form and I have never wavered from my stance that this team will be there in the end. I did underestimate how deep and talented Boston is this year, especially with Kevin Garnett looking like he has found the fountain of youth, but I am sticking by my prediction that the Heat are the Eastern Conference representative in the Finals.
· I am sure everyone has heard by now about the New York Jets strength coach Sal Alosi tripping a Miami Dolphins player trying to cover a punt on Sunday and being subsequently suspended for the remainder of the season and fined 25k by the Jets. I think this story is getting a little too much coverage to be honest. For one, it is being reported that teams purposely position these coaches on the sidelines to be in the way of gunners if they happen to be pushed out of bounds. If teams are instilling this mentality, something that I had never thought about before but it says a whole lot about what a cutthroat business the NFL is, it was only a matter of time before something like this happened. The guy has apologized, let’s let him take his punishment and move on from the story.
· The coaching dominoes in the college ranks are beginning to fall with Al Golden heading to Miami, Will Muschamp to Florida and Jerry Kill to Minnesota. I do not mind that Pitt is taking its time with this decision, it is an awfully important time and hire for this program. As of yesterday it sounded like Oklahoma State Offensive Coordinator Dana Holgorsen was the front-runner for the job but he has since pulled himself from consideration. Holgorsen is now being linked to West Virginia if Bill Stewart is let go. Some of the names being circulated now, including Miami of Ohio coach Mike Haywood, are not exactly the most inspiring names out there.
· That being said, Pitt should not be trying to find the “most inspiring name” if you don’t mind me quoting myself. Steve Pederson’s job is to find the best man for this job, no matter if he is a current head coach, coordinator or a certain sports blog writer if anyone feels like passing my name on to him.
· Lastly, you may have thought that I forgot about a certain team in Pittsburgh that has won a few games in a row. I have not forgotten about them but I do not want to be the jinx that halts this winning streak by mentioning them in the blog…(damn, I hope this doesn’t count!) I will have plenty to say about the streak and their star player’s own little streak when they come to an end.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Pirates Hire Right Man
I wrote about a week or so ago that it looks like the Pirates were set to hire Jeff Banister as their new Manager. It was nothing against Banister, who I have no idea how good of a Manager he would have been, but it looked like the Pirates were going the way of hiring a low-cost “yes” man. Stop me if that doesn’t sound familiar, especially the low-cost part of the equation. There is no doubt that if Banister were hired his job would have been to keep his mouth shut and run the team the way Neal Huntington wanted-- after all it is his job that is next on the line. Much to the surprise of many, including myself, the Pirates went in a different direction and hired Clint Hurdle, a guy they seem to have been targeting from the beginning. Hurdle comes from the World Series runner-up Texas Rangers as their former batting coach and previously from Colorado where he led the Rockies to a National League pennant.
I am not familiar enough with how Hurdle ran the Rockies or how he manages in-game strategy to make an educated opinion on how good of a Manager he will be. What I do know is that Hurdle was a coveted commodity this off-season, at the very least he looked like the leading candidate for the New York Mets vacant position. That meant that the Pirates had to spend a significant salary for Hurdle to come here. It also meant that the Pirates had to convince Hurdle, using his words, that they were “all in” in terms of putting the people and money in place to turn this thing around.
As a manager, I also know that Hurdle is well-liked by his players, demands respect in the clubhouse and brings an enthusiasm and passion for the game that we have not seen from the Pirates over the past few years. That is not a knock on John Russell, no manager on the planet would have won with the assembled talent in Pittsburgh, but it will be a welcome change from his even temperament. The Pirates are beginning to put together some pieces to assemble a winning baseball team. It is now Hurdle’s job to continue the development of his young players such as Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker. It was also nice to hear Hurdle recognize that the Pirates biggest need in the short term was pitching. I am not sure where the Pirates are going to find this pitching, but at least the new man in charge recognizes an upgrade is needed.
I am not a believer that Managers make a huge difference, especially over the course of a long season. What they can do is instill a little something extra in a clubhouse, whether that is confidence, attitude, strategy, etc. That little something extra is especially needed in a clubhouse that needed a change. Hurdle will not be the answer to ending this dreadful consecutive season losing streak, improved talent will be that answer, but he was the right man for the Pirates Manager position at this time.
I am not familiar enough with how Hurdle ran the Rockies or how he manages in-game strategy to make an educated opinion on how good of a Manager he will be. What I do know is that Hurdle was a coveted commodity this off-season, at the very least he looked like the leading candidate for the New York Mets vacant position. That meant that the Pirates had to spend a significant salary for Hurdle to come here. It also meant that the Pirates had to convince Hurdle, using his words, that they were “all in” in terms of putting the people and money in place to turn this thing around.
As a manager, I also know that Hurdle is well-liked by his players, demands respect in the clubhouse and brings an enthusiasm and passion for the game that we have not seen from the Pirates over the past few years. That is not a knock on John Russell, no manager on the planet would have won with the assembled talent in Pittsburgh, but it will be a welcome change from his even temperament. The Pirates are beginning to put together some pieces to assemble a winning baseball team. It is now Hurdle’s job to continue the development of his young players such as Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker. It was also nice to hear Hurdle recognize that the Pirates biggest need in the short term was pitching. I am not sure where the Pirates are going to find this pitching, but at least the new man in charge recognizes an upgrade is needed.
I am not a believer that Managers make a huge difference, especially over the course of a long season. What they can do is instill a little something extra in a clubhouse, whether that is confidence, attitude, strategy, etc. That little something extra is especially needed in a clubhouse that needed a change. Hurdle will not be the answer to ending this dreadful consecutive season losing streak, improved talent will be that answer, but he was the right man for the Pirates Manager position at this time.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Friday Smorgasbord (Plus Week 9 Picks)
It has been a long week in The People’s Quarterback home as we get used to a crying baby and almost no sleep. With that, I have done very little writing this week so I have a ton of thoughts stored in the old memory bank. Let’s get some of those out in a Friday smorgasbord. Week nine NFL picks can be found at the end and let me tell you it was nice to get back on the winning side of things last week.
· Auburn and Oregon control their own destiny for a BCS title game appearance with Boise State and the TCU/Utah winner nipping on their heels. But for my money Alabama is still the best team in the country. Here’s hoping that Alabama wins out and meets Oregon for the National Championship in what would be one of the most anticipated championships in some time.
· Those that are against a NCAA football playoff system often site the importance of the regular season as one of the major reasons. That argument never made sense to me. Wouldn’t the Ohio State, Stanford, Wisconsin, Arizona and a bunch more regular seasons be that much more important if they were trying to battle their way into an eight or twelve team playoff. Sure we may lose the drama of one game here or there like the undefeated Michigan-Ohio St. clash a few years back but we would pick up about two dozen more do-or-die type games on the back end of the schedule. How much more exciting would the rest of Pitt’s season be if they had the inside track in the Big East to the playoffs and not just some trip to the Fiesta Bowl for an example?
· For the record, I am in favor of a playoff system AND bowl games. There is no reason that an eight or twelve (my particular favorites) team playoff cannot exist with the other bowl games played around them. Some argue that a playoff would take away from the importance of the other bowl games but that is bunk. The same people (fans, alumni, students, hard-core college football fans and gamblers) would be interested in the Gator or Pinstripe Bowl with or without a playoff. The real problem is deciding how to run the playoff system, which includes creating as much revenue as the current BCS bowls and how to divide it amongst the teams and conferences. I think these are problems that could easily be solved with time and effort and eventually more money could be made for the universities, but Presidents and Athletic Directors are afraid to turn away from a sure thing.
· With all do apologies to Kellen Moore, who is having a fantastic season for Boise State, the Heisman race at this point looks like a two man race between Cam Newton and LaMichael James. Unless one or both suffer an injury or their production severely drops off over the final few games, I’m guessing you will be seeing of these two young men holding the trophy in New York. I would vote for Newton right now.
· The Pirates are set to hire their new manager any day now and unless Clint Hurdle, currently the Texas Rangers hitting coach and former Colorado Rockies manager, knocks the Pirates’ management team’s socks off, it looks like former minor league coordinator Jeff Banister is going to get the job. Talk about hiring a “yes” man. General Manager Neil Huntington knows that it is his job that is next on the line and that his ability to keep it ties directly to the improvement of the big league club. I guess he wants to leave no chances with a manager who will do exactly as he says. I am sure Bob Nutting will not mind this hire either as Banister is sure to be the lowest paid manager in baseball.
· Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants for winning the World Series. The Giants won on great pitching, timely hitting, and a good amount of luck. People hate to hear the word luck involved with sports, especially when it is their favorite team, but the role it plays cannot be overstated enough. This is doubly true in playoff baseball where short series and small sample sizes are all that matters. Maybe if we begin using the word randomness, as I have heard some people refer to it by, it would become more accepted.
· One guy on the Giants that has nothing to do with luck is rookie catcher Buster Posey. The Pirates passed on Posey to select Pedro Alvarez, a move that now looks foolish in hindsight despite the promising rookie season Alvarez put in. Posey is very possibly the game’s second best catcher already at the young age of 23 behind only Joe Mauer.
· Randy Moss is slowly but surely forcing his way out of the NFL. I own Moss on two fantasy teams so I am hoping his move to Tennessee works out but if the reports of Moss’ behavior in Minnesota are true how many more teams are going to take a chance on a guy whose talents are already beginning to wane.
· That being said, Moss is still a game changer. If Randy’s head is on straight and he can stretch defenses and draw coverage away opening holes for Chris Johnson and throwing lanes for Vince Young, the Titans just got a whole lot more dangerous in the crowded AFC picture.
· Troy Polamalu spoke out this week about Commissioner Roger Goodell and his office having too much power. I say amen to that. Goodell’s ability to suspend, fine and basically do whatever he wants to players for both their on-field and off-field behavior should be a major sticking point for the Player’s Association in the upcoming labor negotiations.
· I am all for protecting player’s safety and while I thought the fine for James Harrison’s hit on the Browns receiver was excessive and borderline, I could at least understand it. Fining Harrison for his late hit on Drew Brees this past week simply does not make sense to me. How can you fine a guy for what I consider a normal football play? Sure, Harrison was a split second late, I agree, and the flag was thrown. Why is this action finable? Are guys going to get fined for holding? How about chop blocks, those are pretty dangerous? Harrison’s hit was not blatantly late or with harmful intentions, it was an illegal football play that deserved a flag and that’s it.
· On to this week’s NFL picks…Last week I went 7-6 (51-61-5 overall), finally getting on the winning side after three consecutive losing weeks. Hopefully I can carry that momentum over for this week and the rest of the season.
(Home Team in Caps)
ATLANTA (-8.5) over Tampa Bay – Because the Falcons are off of a bye week, at home where they’ve won 12 straight with Matt Ryan at QB, and the Falcons could be the class of the NFC.
Miami (+5) over BALTIMORE – Because the Dolphins have yet to lose a road game and can exploit the Ravens’ suspect secondary.
Chicago (-3) over BUFFALO – Because everyone thinks this is the game the Bills are finally going to win and because it is being played in Canada, not Buffalo.
CAROLINA (+6.5) over New Orleans – Because a home win on Halloween night is not going to rope me back in to believing the Saints are back.
New England (-4.5) over CLEVELAND – Because Bill Belichick loves taking out revenge on former employees like Eric Mangini.
New York Jets (-4) over DETROIT – Because the Jets are too good and too well coached not to bounce back in a big way.
HOUSTON (+3) over San Diego – Because San Diego should not be giving anyone points on the road especially with Tweedledee and Tweedledum catching the football.
MINNESOTA (-8) over Arizona – Because I am not sure if Arizona will complete more passes to Cardinals or Vikings.
New York Giants (-7) over SEATTLE – Because Charlie Whitehurst is starting at quarterback for the Seahawks and there is a good chance he does not finish it against this Giants pass rush.
Kansas City (+2.5) over OAKLAND – Because the Chiefs have won seven straight in Oakland and are a little further along in their rebuilding effort.
Indianapolis (+3) over PHILADELPHIA – Because Jim Caldwell has never lost to an NFC team since taking over the Colts and because the AFC is that much better than the NFC.
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Dallas – Because the Cowboys have quit.
Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CINCINNATI – Because Carson Palmer stinks.
· Auburn and Oregon control their own destiny for a BCS title game appearance with Boise State and the TCU/Utah winner nipping on their heels. But for my money Alabama is still the best team in the country. Here’s hoping that Alabama wins out and meets Oregon for the National Championship in what would be one of the most anticipated championships in some time.
· Those that are against a NCAA football playoff system often site the importance of the regular season as one of the major reasons. That argument never made sense to me. Wouldn’t the Ohio State, Stanford, Wisconsin, Arizona and a bunch more regular seasons be that much more important if they were trying to battle their way into an eight or twelve team playoff. Sure we may lose the drama of one game here or there like the undefeated Michigan-Ohio St. clash a few years back but we would pick up about two dozen more do-or-die type games on the back end of the schedule. How much more exciting would the rest of Pitt’s season be if they had the inside track in the Big East to the playoffs and not just some trip to the Fiesta Bowl for an example?
· For the record, I am in favor of a playoff system AND bowl games. There is no reason that an eight or twelve (my particular favorites) team playoff cannot exist with the other bowl games played around them. Some argue that a playoff would take away from the importance of the other bowl games but that is bunk. The same people (fans, alumni, students, hard-core college football fans and gamblers) would be interested in the Gator or Pinstripe Bowl with or without a playoff. The real problem is deciding how to run the playoff system, which includes creating as much revenue as the current BCS bowls and how to divide it amongst the teams and conferences. I think these are problems that could easily be solved with time and effort and eventually more money could be made for the universities, but Presidents and Athletic Directors are afraid to turn away from a sure thing.
· With all do apologies to Kellen Moore, who is having a fantastic season for Boise State, the Heisman race at this point looks like a two man race between Cam Newton and LaMichael James. Unless one or both suffer an injury or their production severely drops off over the final few games, I’m guessing you will be seeing of these two young men holding the trophy in New York. I would vote for Newton right now.
· The Pirates are set to hire their new manager any day now and unless Clint Hurdle, currently the Texas Rangers hitting coach and former Colorado Rockies manager, knocks the Pirates’ management team’s socks off, it looks like former minor league coordinator Jeff Banister is going to get the job. Talk about hiring a “yes” man. General Manager Neil Huntington knows that it is his job that is next on the line and that his ability to keep it ties directly to the improvement of the big league club. I guess he wants to leave no chances with a manager who will do exactly as he says. I am sure Bob Nutting will not mind this hire either as Banister is sure to be the lowest paid manager in baseball.
· Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants for winning the World Series. The Giants won on great pitching, timely hitting, and a good amount of luck. People hate to hear the word luck involved with sports, especially when it is their favorite team, but the role it plays cannot be overstated enough. This is doubly true in playoff baseball where short series and small sample sizes are all that matters. Maybe if we begin using the word randomness, as I have heard some people refer to it by, it would become more accepted.
· One guy on the Giants that has nothing to do with luck is rookie catcher Buster Posey. The Pirates passed on Posey to select Pedro Alvarez, a move that now looks foolish in hindsight despite the promising rookie season Alvarez put in. Posey is very possibly the game’s second best catcher already at the young age of 23 behind only Joe Mauer.
· Randy Moss is slowly but surely forcing his way out of the NFL. I own Moss on two fantasy teams so I am hoping his move to Tennessee works out but if the reports of Moss’ behavior in Minnesota are true how many more teams are going to take a chance on a guy whose talents are already beginning to wane.
· That being said, Moss is still a game changer. If Randy’s head is on straight and he can stretch defenses and draw coverage away opening holes for Chris Johnson and throwing lanes for Vince Young, the Titans just got a whole lot more dangerous in the crowded AFC picture.
· Troy Polamalu spoke out this week about Commissioner Roger Goodell and his office having too much power. I say amen to that. Goodell’s ability to suspend, fine and basically do whatever he wants to players for both their on-field and off-field behavior should be a major sticking point for the Player’s Association in the upcoming labor negotiations.
· I am all for protecting player’s safety and while I thought the fine for James Harrison’s hit on the Browns receiver was excessive and borderline, I could at least understand it. Fining Harrison for his late hit on Drew Brees this past week simply does not make sense to me. How can you fine a guy for what I consider a normal football play? Sure, Harrison was a split second late, I agree, and the flag was thrown. Why is this action finable? Are guys going to get fined for holding? How about chop blocks, those are pretty dangerous? Harrison’s hit was not blatantly late or with harmful intentions, it was an illegal football play that deserved a flag and that’s it.
· On to this week’s NFL picks…Last week I went 7-6 (51-61-5 overall), finally getting on the winning side after three consecutive losing weeks. Hopefully I can carry that momentum over for this week and the rest of the season.
(Home Team in Caps)
ATLANTA (-8.5) over Tampa Bay – Because the Falcons are off of a bye week, at home where they’ve won 12 straight with Matt Ryan at QB, and the Falcons could be the class of the NFC.
Miami (+5) over BALTIMORE – Because the Dolphins have yet to lose a road game and can exploit the Ravens’ suspect secondary.
Chicago (-3) over BUFFALO – Because everyone thinks this is the game the Bills are finally going to win and because it is being played in Canada, not Buffalo.
CAROLINA (+6.5) over New Orleans – Because a home win on Halloween night is not going to rope me back in to believing the Saints are back.
New England (-4.5) over CLEVELAND – Because Bill Belichick loves taking out revenge on former employees like Eric Mangini.
New York Jets (-4) over DETROIT – Because the Jets are too good and too well coached not to bounce back in a big way.
HOUSTON (+3) over San Diego – Because San Diego should not be giving anyone points on the road especially with Tweedledee and Tweedledum catching the football.
MINNESOTA (-8) over Arizona – Because I am not sure if Arizona will complete more passes to Cardinals or Vikings.
New York Giants (-7) over SEATTLE – Because Charlie Whitehurst is starting at quarterback for the Seahawks and there is a good chance he does not finish it against this Giants pass rush.
Kansas City (+2.5) over OAKLAND – Because the Chiefs have won seven straight in Oakland and are a little further along in their rebuilding effort.
Indianapolis (+3) over PHILADELPHIA – Because Jim Caldwell has never lost to an NFC team since taking over the Colts and because the AFC is that much better than the NFC.
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Dallas – Because the Cowboys have quit.
Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CINCINNATI – Because Carson Palmer stinks.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Pirates Manager Search Least of Their Worries
I received an email from the Pirates the day after the season ended with the subject “Pirates relieve Russell of managerial duties”. This may bring a couple a couple of thoughts to your mind like “Why do I receive emails from the Pirates marketing department?” or “Why are the Pirates trying to sugarcoat firing a guy that lost 299 games in three years?” or finally, “Is John Russell the most relieved man in baseball?”
To answer that first question, I used to be a Pirates partial season ticket holder buying one of their ten game packages. A buddy and I decided after we graduated college that it would be fun to do this and we had a few bucks after getting our first real jobs. Well my buddy moved away and I couldn’t GIVE away my tickets when I couldn’t go so that was that. It’s not like the Pirates tickets are the hardest seat in or town or anything. I am still on their email list, however, and get their homemade puff pieces sent to me.
This brings me to the second question you might have, or at least the very first question that I had. Why were the Pirates trying to make this sound like anything but a firing? The Pirates lost nearly 300 games in three years under Russell, including seasons of 67-95, 62-99 and this year’s topper 57-105. The Pirates, who have been stressing “accountability” since Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly took over as the management team, should have released a headline that looked something more like this “Pirates Could Not Fire Russell Fast Enough!” Instead, we email subscribers got a boring piece on how the Pirates thought they needed a change in direction, and that they value Russell’s contributions to the organization, blah, blah, blah.
Frankly, I have no idea if John Russell was a good manager or not. Sure, I didn’t agree with some of his in-game tactics but you can say that about some of the greatest managers of all time. I did like that Russell was willing to think outside of the box. I applauded his attempt to bat the pitcher eighth and his attempt at different defensive positioning. Those ideas may not have worked for this team, but at least Russell was trying something to give his team an edge. For an organization that is inferior in almost every way to its counterparts, a bit of unconventional thinking is needed. The reality though, is that players and talent win games. Russell had neither to work with. That is why the third question popped into my mind. Is anyone more relieved not to be managing then John Russell, especially in light of Coonelly and Huntington’s decision to extend him another year, thus paying Russell approximately a half million dollars not to coach the Pirates? Sign me up!
The truth of the matter is that it doesn’t matter one iota who the next manager of the Pirates is going to be. As to my knowledge, the Pirates have interviewed at least six managerial candidates for their vacant position with the apparent frontrunner being former Cleveland skipper Eric Wedge. Do these guys know what they are getting into? Here are the list of Pirates’ managers since Jim Leyland left in 1996; Gene Lamont, Lloyd McClendon, Pete Mackanin (on an interim 25 games basis), Jim Tracy and John Russell. Their combined record with the Pirates was 964-1300, a whopping .426 winning percentage. The only one of these men to get a managerial job after he left was Jim Tracy, and he was very fortunate to get his when serving as bench coach for the Colorado Rockies they fired their manager and he took over, luckily falling into one of the more talented rosters in the National League.
The future looks no brighter for the next Pirates’ manager either. The immediate future of the Pirates is built around Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. McCutchen is the only sure thing of the group but I think I saw enough of Alvarez to give him the benefit of the doubt as well. Walker was a career .273 hitters in the minors, does anyone think he can really be a .296 hitter in the majors? I think his .340 BABIP may have played a part in Walker’s luck. Jose Tabata has shown no inclination of hitting with power despite being the Pirates everyday left fielder of the future. The four of them were also major contributors to the Pirates’ league worst defense. Even allowing that Walker and Tabata can become solid regulars, McCutchen and Alvarez reach their potential, and the Pirates have a decent catching platoon between Snyder and Doumit, the Pirates are still three (or 2.5 if they decide Garrett Jones can be a decent platoon at 1B or RF) players away from having a good major league line-up. And that is the good news for the next Pirates’ manager!
The bad news is that if the Pirates fail to sign any prominent free agent starters, and that’s a pretty good bet, your 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation to begin the season will most likely consist of Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald, Paul Maholm, Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton. Their respective career ERAs are 4.40, 3.84, 4.48, 6.66 and 5.98. Not exactly the Phillies current H2O staff. The only near-term help on the farm are prospects Bryan Morris and Rudy Owens, both far from a sure thing. It’s true that the Pirates have stockpiled some great arms in the lower minors, but by the time they reach the big leagues the new manager very well could be looking for his next job.
That, people, is the state of your Pittsburgh Pirates. A once proud organization has fallen to the point where it really doesn’t matter who they hire to manage their ballclub. I do hope for the next manager’s sake that he is given at least a four or five year contract so that he can grow with the Pirates’ young talent on his terms. I also hope that he gets a guarantee from the Pirates’ management team that they will significantly increase payroll in the next few years. Lastly, I hope that the Pirates do the right thing and hire a guy proven to be a great developer of young talent. But who am I kidding, does it really matter who the Pirates hire for their next manager? I have a sad feeling that I will be receiving another email in two or three years headlined, “Pirates relieve general manager and coach of duties.”
To answer that first question, I used to be a Pirates partial season ticket holder buying one of their ten game packages. A buddy and I decided after we graduated college that it would be fun to do this and we had a few bucks after getting our first real jobs. Well my buddy moved away and I couldn’t GIVE away my tickets when I couldn’t go so that was that. It’s not like the Pirates tickets are the hardest seat in or town or anything. I am still on their email list, however, and get their homemade puff pieces sent to me.
This brings me to the second question you might have, or at least the very first question that I had. Why were the Pirates trying to make this sound like anything but a firing? The Pirates lost nearly 300 games in three years under Russell, including seasons of 67-95, 62-99 and this year’s topper 57-105. The Pirates, who have been stressing “accountability” since Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly took over as the management team, should have released a headline that looked something more like this “Pirates Could Not Fire Russell Fast Enough!” Instead, we email subscribers got a boring piece on how the Pirates thought they needed a change in direction, and that they value Russell’s contributions to the organization, blah, blah, blah.
Frankly, I have no idea if John Russell was a good manager or not. Sure, I didn’t agree with some of his in-game tactics but you can say that about some of the greatest managers of all time. I did like that Russell was willing to think outside of the box. I applauded his attempt to bat the pitcher eighth and his attempt at different defensive positioning. Those ideas may not have worked for this team, but at least Russell was trying something to give his team an edge. For an organization that is inferior in almost every way to its counterparts, a bit of unconventional thinking is needed. The reality though, is that players and talent win games. Russell had neither to work with. That is why the third question popped into my mind. Is anyone more relieved not to be managing then John Russell, especially in light of Coonelly and Huntington’s decision to extend him another year, thus paying Russell approximately a half million dollars not to coach the Pirates? Sign me up!
The truth of the matter is that it doesn’t matter one iota who the next manager of the Pirates is going to be. As to my knowledge, the Pirates have interviewed at least six managerial candidates for their vacant position with the apparent frontrunner being former Cleveland skipper Eric Wedge. Do these guys know what they are getting into? Here are the list of Pirates’ managers since Jim Leyland left in 1996; Gene Lamont, Lloyd McClendon, Pete Mackanin (on an interim 25 games basis), Jim Tracy and John Russell. Their combined record with the Pirates was 964-1300, a whopping .426 winning percentage. The only one of these men to get a managerial job after he left was Jim Tracy, and he was very fortunate to get his when serving as bench coach for the Colorado Rockies they fired their manager and he took over, luckily falling into one of the more talented rosters in the National League.
The future looks no brighter for the next Pirates’ manager either. The immediate future of the Pirates is built around Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. McCutchen is the only sure thing of the group but I think I saw enough of Alvarez to give him the benefit of the doubt as well. Walker was a career .273 hitters in the minors, does anyone think he can really be a .296 hitter in the majors? I think his .340 BABIP may have played a part in Walker’s luck. Jose Tabata has shown no inclination of hitting with power despite being the Pirates everyday left fielder of the future. The four of them were also major contributors to the Pirates’ league worst defense. Even allowing that Walker and Tabata can become solid regulars, McCutchen and Alvarez reach their potential, and the Pirates have a decent catching platoon between Snyder and Doumit, the Pirates are still three (or 2.5 if they decide Garrett Jones can be a decent platoon at 1B or RF) players away from having a good major league line-up. And that is the good news for the next Pirates’ manager!
The bad news is that if the Pirates fail to sign any prominent free agent starters, and that’s a pretty good bet, your 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation to begin the season will most likely consist of Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald, Paul Maholm, Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton. Their respective career ERAs are 4.40, 3.84, 4.48, 6.66 and 5.98. Not exactly the Phillies current H2O staff. The only near-term help on the farm are prospects Bryan Morris and Rudy Owens, both far from a sure thing. It’s true that the Pirates have stockpiled some great arms in the lower minors, but by the time they reach the big leagues the new manager very well could be looking for his next job.
That, people, is the state of your Pittsburgh Pirates. A once proud organization has fallen to the point where it really doesn’t matter who they hire to manage their ballclub. I do hope for the next manager’s sake that he is given at least a four or five year contract so that he can grow with the Pirates’ young talent on his terms. I also hope that he gets a guarantee from the Pirates’ management team that they will significantly increase payroll in the next few years. Lastly, I hope that the Pirates do the right thing and hire a guy proven to be a great developer of young talent. But who am I kidding, does it really matter who the Pirates hire for their next manager? I have a sad feeling that I will be receiving another email in two or three years headlined, “Pirates relieve general manager and coach of duties.”
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
MLB Playoff Preview
In an occurrence that would shock no one, the American League playoffs look a whole lot more appealing than the National League. Quite frankly, only the Philadelphia Phillies stack up talent-wise with the four AL representatives, but that is what makes October baseball so riveting. One hot streak, one injury, even one bad bounce can change the outcome of a short series. With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at each of the divisional round match-ups and who I see moving forward. As for my World Series prediction: at this point I have to stick with my preseason prediction of the Phillies over the Yankees for the title, with Roy Halladay and his career 16-5 record and 2.90 ERA vs. the Bronx Bombers as the difference maker.
National League
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
I was disappointed to see the Reds struggle a bit down the stretch and ultimately get passed by the NL West winning Giants. I was hoping to see a Phillies-Reds match-up in the NLCS when the Reds’ deep rotation and strong line-up would match up better with the Phillies. That is not the case, however, and Philadelphia has a major advantage in the shorter five game series with the ability to throw Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt twice on regular rest. The Reds do sport the NL’s top offense and will counter with two talented, but young and inexperienced starters of their own in Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, along with veteran Bronson Arroyo in between. In the end, however, a healthy Phillies line-up and the trio of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels will be a little too much for the Redlegs. Phillies in four.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is the ultimate example of how pitching wins. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and the rest of the Giants staff have been amazing during the second half of the season, erasing a 7.5 game lead and 4th place standing in their own division on July 4th. The Braves, meanwhile, were able to hang onto the wild card and delay Bobby Cox’ retirement for another much deserved playoff appearance. As good as the Giants’ pitching has been down the stretch is as bad as the Braves’ banged up line-up has been. The Braves managed only 3.5 runs per game over their final thirty games and now face a pitching staff that has been lights out. I can’t see a way that the Braves find a way to score enough runs without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado in the line-up. Giants in four.
American League
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Now we move over to the big boy league. Look at the star power in this one: Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Vlad Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, David Price and the list could go on and on. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like the back part of the Rays’ rotation with James Shields, Matt Garza, and Wade Davis just slightly better than that of the Rangers with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter. If the series happens to reach a fifth game, the edge still lies with Tampa who will have home field advantage and have hit Rangers’ ace Cliff Lee relatively well this year to the tune of 12 earned runs in 23 plus innings. David Price would also get two starts at home where he has a sub-2 ERA. Rays in five.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
If I hadn’t picked the Yankees before the season to go to the World Series I would be tempted to pick the Twins in an upset as they have played the best ball in the Majors since the All-Star break and sport the League’s best home record at 53-28. The absence of Justin Morneau, however, shortens the Twins line-up and forces Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jim Thome to really provide the offense behind Joe Mauer. The Yanks’ have proven big game pitchers in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettite, both of whom are scheduled to go two games if the series should go the distance. The Yankees better make sure that is not the case as the edge would shift to the Twins with home-field advantage in game five and a well rested Liriano taking the mound (3.11 home ERA). I think the Yankees bats will be too much for the Twins to handle, however, especially for the back end of the Twins’ rotation and this one doesn’t reach that game five. Yankees in four.
National League
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
I was disappointed to see the Reds struggle a bit down the stretch and ultimately get passed by the NL West winning Giants. I was hoping to see a Phillies-Reds match-up in the NLCS when the Reds’ deep rotation and strong line-up would match up better with the Phillies. That is not the case, however, and Philadelphia has a major advantage in the shorter five game series with the ability to throw Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt twice on regular rest. The Reds do sport the NL’s top offense and will counter with two talented, but young and inexperienced starters of their own in Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, along with veteran Bronson Arroyo in between. In the end, however, a healthy Phillies line-up and the trio of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels will be a little too much for the Redlegs. Phillies in four.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is the ultimate example of how pitching wins. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and the rest of the Giants staff have been amazing during the second half of the season, erasing a 7.5 game lead and 4th place standing in their own division on July 4th. The Braves, meanwhile, were able to hang onto the wild card and delay Bobby Cox’ retirement for another much deserved playoff appearance. As good as the Giants’ pitching has been down the stretch is as bad as the Braves’ banged up line-up has been. The Braves managed only 3.5 runs per game over their final thirty games and now face a pitching staff that has been lights out. I can’t see a way that the Braves find a way to score enough runs without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado in the line-up. Giants in four.
American League
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Now we move over to the big boy league. Look at the star power in this one: Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Vlad Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, David Price and the list could go on and on. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like the back part of the Rays’ rotation with James Shields, Matt Garza, and Wade Davis just slightly better than that of the Rangers with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter. If the series happens to reach a fifth game, the edge still lies with Tampa who will have home field advantage and have hit Rangers’ ace Cliff Lee relatively well this year to the tune of 12 earned runs in 23 plus innings. David Price would also get two starts at home where he has a sub-2 ERA. Rays in five.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
If I hadn’t picked the Yankees before the season to go to the World Series I would be tempted to pick the Twins in an upset as they have played the best ball in the Majors since the All-Star break and sport the League’s best home record at 53-28. The absence of Justin Morneau, however, shortens the Twins line-up and forces Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jim Thome to really provide the offense behind Joe Mauer. The Yanks’ have proven big game pitchers in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettite, both of whom are scheduled to go two games if the series should go the distance. The Yankees better make sure that is not the case as the edge would shift to the Twins with home-field advantage in game five and a well rested Liriano taking the mound (3.11 home ERA). I think the Yankees bats will be too much for the Twins to handle, however, especially for the back end of the Twins’ rotation and this one doesn’t reach that game five. Yankees in four.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Best Month of the Year (And MLB Awards)
Today is the first Monday of October. With all due apologies to March Madness, October marks the beginning of best month on the sports calendar. Baseball has moved on to the postseason, the NFL is in full gear, conference play is beginning in college football, the NHL kicks off this week, the NBA isn’t too far behind and we even got the added bonus of a tremendous Ryder Cup which wrapped up this morning. All of our country’s most attractive sports are or will be playing meaningful games this time of the year. It’s enough to make the die-hard sports fan go crazy, or for the sports-bloggers out there a time for your typing fingers to get sore. We’ll kick off an action-filled week by handing out some awards in Major League Baseball before transitioning ahead to a look at the postseason tomorrow.
(Be sure to check back often this week as I plan to have a ton of content up on the blog. In addition to the baseball posts, I plan on including a Penguins preview, college football smorgasbord, Pirates recap/look forward and of course my weekly NFL picks and column. Thank goodness the Steelers have a bye this week!)
Major League Baseball wrapped up its regular season yesterday with the National League West and wild card still to be decided. If you are like most of the country and tune out baseball once football season starts, at least until the playoffs begin, than I can’t blame you. After about 130-plus games, even the most hard-core baseball junkies are ready for the postseason and the intense pressures of October to start.
This year did come with a little drama in the final few weeks but if you are from cities outside of San Francisco, San Diego, Denver or Atlanta you were probably more worried about your fantasy football teams for the last month or so than the baseball season. Fear not, however, as I give you my regular season awards and postseason preview over the next two days which should get you caught up just in time for the playoffs to begin on Wednesday.
AL MVP
Josh Hamilton (Texas Rangers) – This one would have been as clear-cut as it gets if Hamilton hadn’t missed 30 games this year, but the production he provided in the games he played for the AL West winning Rangers was still enough in my book. Hamilton won the AL batting crown with .359 average, hit 32 HRs drove in 100 runs and scored 95. “The Natural”, as a friend and I dubbed him a few years back, also led the AL in OPS at 1.043 and plays a decent outfield, including 40 games in center. Honorable Mention: Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano.
NL MVP
Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds) – The NL MVP was a virtual coin flip between Votto and Albert Pujols, with the easy tie-breaker going to Votto whose Reds beat out Pujols’ Cardinals for the Central Division. Votto’s line of .324/.424./.600 and 37/113/106 look almost identical to Albert’s .312/.414/.596 and 42/118/115, especially considering the extra few days Votto took off down the stretch getting rest for the postseason. Honorable Mention: Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki.
AL Cy Young
Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners) – For the out of touch baseball purists out there, save me the argument that King Felix shouldn’t win because he only won 13 games. Hernandez led the AL in innings, ERA, was 2nd in strikeouts and was quite clearly the best pitcher in a stacked class of American League pitchers. In Hernandez’ 12 losses, the Mariners scored a combined 14 runs. He may have won 25 games pitching for the Yankees or Rays. Honorable Mention: Cliff Lee, David Price, CC Sabathia, Francisco Liriano.
NL Cy Young
Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies) – To me, both leagues had pretty easy choices for their respective Cy Young Awards. Halladay was everything the Phillies were hoping for when trading for him this offseason and maybe even then some. Halladay led the NL in wins, innings pitched, complete games, K/BB ratio, and was 2nd in strikeouts and 3rd in ERA. He did all of this in Philadelphia’s hitter friendly park and the NL’s toughest division. There really are not words to describe how darn good Halladay performed this year. Honorable Mention: Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum.
AL Rookie of the Year
Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers) – I struggled mightily with this one trying to compare Austin Jackson’s bulk stats against Feliz’ limited role as the Rangers’ closer. Jackson played every day, amassing nearly 670 plate appearances and producing a solid, if not spectacular line of .293/.345/.400. In the end, however, I decided to go with Feliz’ dominance, especially adding in the factor that Feliz may become a great pitcher going forward where Jackson is likely to stay a similar player, or even regress. Honorable Mention: Jackson, Brian Matusz.
NL Rookie of the Year
Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves) – It is a shame that we cannot just give away two National League awards and take away the AL ROY. Heyward and Buster Posey of the Giants are both more than deserving of the award, as are about five or six other qualified candidates. I gave the slight edge to Heyward, however, as he played just a bit more than Posey while finishing with very similar production. Honorable Mention: Posey, Starlin Castro, Jaime Garcia, Mike Stanton.
(Be sure to check back often this week as I plan to have a ton of content up on the blog. In addition to the baseball posts, I plan on including a Penguins preview, college football smorgasbord, Pirates recap/look forward and of course my weekly NFL picks and column. Thank goodness the Steelers have a bye this week!)
Major League Baseball wrapped up its regular season yesterday with the National League West and wild card still to be decided. If you are like most of the country and tune out baseball once football season starts, at least until the playoffs begin, than I can’t blame you. After about 130-plus games, even the most hard-core baseball junkies are ready for the postseason and the intense pressures of October to start.
This year did come with a little drama in the final few weeks but if you are from cities outside of San Francisco, San Diego, Denver or Atlanta you were probably more worried about your fantasy football teams for the last month or so than the baseball season. Fear not, however, as I give you my regular season awards and postseason preview over the next two days which should get you caught up just in time for the playoffs to begin on Wednesday.
AL MVP
Josh Hamilton (Texas Rangers) – This one would have been as clear-cut as it gets if Hamilton hadn’t missed 30 games this year, but the production he provided in the games he played for the AL West winning Rangers was still enough in my book. Hamilton won the AL batting crown with .359 average, hit 32 HRs drove in 100 runs and scored 95. “The Natural”, as a friend and I dubbed him a few years back, also led the AL in OPS at 1.043 and plays a decent outfield, including 40 games in center. Honorable Mention: Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano.
NL MVP
Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds) – The NL MVP was a virtual coin flip between Votto and Albert Pujols, with the easy tie-breaker going to Votto whose Reds beat out Pujols’ Cardinals for the Central Division. Votto’s line of .324/.424./.600 and 37/113/106 look almost identical to Albert’s .312/.414/.596 and 42/118/115, especially considering the extra few days Votto took off down the stretch getting rest for the postseason. Honorable Mention: Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki.
AL Cy Young
Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners) – For the out of touch baseball purists out there, save me the argument that King Felix shouldn’t win because he only won 13 games. Hernandez led the AL in innings, ERA, was 2nd in strikeouts and was quite clearly the best pitcher in a stacked class of American League pitchers. In Hernandez’ 12 losses, the Mariners scored a combined 14 runs. He may have won 25 games pitching for the Yankees or Rays. Honorable Mention: Cliff Lee, David Price, CC Sabathia, Francisco Liriano.
NL Cy Young
Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies) – To me, both leagues had pretty easy choices for their respective Cy Young Awards. Halladay was everything the Phillies were hoping for when trading for him this offseason and maybe even then some. Halladay led the NL in wins, innings pitched, complete games, K/BB ratio, and was 2nd in strikeouts and 3rd in ERA. He did all of this in Philadelphia’s hitter friendly park and the NL’s toughest division. There really are not words to describe how darn good Halladay performed this year. Honorable Mention: Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum.
AL Rookie of the Year
Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers) – I struggled mightily with this one trying to compare Austin Jackson’s bulk stats against Feliz’ limited role as the Rangers’ closer. Jackson played every day, amassing nearly 670 plate appearances and producing a solid, if not spectacular line of .293/.345/.400. In the end, however, I decided to go with Feliz’ dominance, especially adding in the factor that Feliz may become a great pitcher going forward where Jackson is likely to stay a similar player, or even regress. Honorable Mention: Jackson, Brian Matusz.
NL Rookie of the Year
Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves) – It is a shame that we cannot just give away two National League awards and take away the AL ROY. Heyward and Buster Posey of the Giants are both more than deserving of the award, as are about five or six other qualified candidates. I gave the slight edge to Heyward, however, as he played just a bit more than Posey while finishing with very similar production. Honorable Mention: Posey, Starlin Castro, Jaime Garcia, Mike Stanton.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Evaluating the Buccos' Trades
Major League Baseball’s trade deadline came and went on Saturday and there were a number of deals made as the contenders tried to beef up their rosters for the stretch run. In Pittsburgh, the end of July usually marks the purge of the Pirates’ roster, as the team is usually out of contention and looks to move its veteran assets for younger talent. This year was no different, though not to the extreme it has been the past couple of years, but the Pirates made three deadline deals all with the future in mind.
Neal Huntington and his staff, all-in-all, did a pretty nice job this deadline, moving veteran relief pitchers for some pieces that could potentially help the Pirates down the line. The one deadline deal, however, that is quite possibly the biggest black mark on Huntington’s resume to date did not involve the Pirates at all. We will get to that in a second, but first, let’s take a look at the three trades the Pirates were involved with.
· The Pirates traded veteran reliever D.J. Carrasco and veterans Bobby Crosby and Ryan Church to Arizona for catcher Chris Snyder and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco, as well as $3 million in cash to help offset Snyder’s total of $8.2 million due through the end of 2011. In short, I love this move by the Pirates. Between the $1.2 million remaining in cost on the three players moved, the Pirates essentially picked up a solid major league catcher for the 2011 season for approximately $4 million and received a throw-in shortstop prospect to boot.
There is really nothing to be said of the three departed players. Church and Crosby were busts as free agent acquisitions and offered no value to the Pirates this year or in the future and Carrasco, while being quite effective this year out of the bullpen, is easily replaceable. In return, the Pirates picked up a potential starting catcher in Chris Snyder who is much better than his .231 average would indicate. For proof, Snyder’s three year average .OPS of .770 would rank 6th among National League catchers this year and he is known as a solid defensive catcher, something Pirates’ fans have not seen in some time. Snyder will also give the Pirates some flexibility in moving Ryan Doumit to either right field or first base, or even the option of moving him in another trade this offseason.
Ciriaco is known as a good defensive shortstop prospect with not much of a stick, as his career .659 OPS in the minors would indicate. Even still, with the Pirates glaring hole at the shortstop position throughout the organization, taking flyers on guys like this is a smart approach.
· The Pirates then sent closer Octavio Dotel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher James McDonald and minor league outfielder Andrew Lambo. Those around Pittsburgh were calling this a salary dump, while those nationally were calling this a nice trade by the Pirates. I fall in the second camp on this one, as a veteran closer makes no sense on a young team that is going to be lucky to win 60 games. McDonald is a 25-year-old pitcher with nice raw stuff and the ability to start while Lambo was once thought of as a high-end prospect until a drug suspension earlier this season derailed his progress some. Both are great examples of buy-low candidates who could become a significant part of the Pirates future. For more, check out Keith Law’s take on this trade here: Dodgers give up too much for Dotel.
· The third and final trade made by the Pirates was giving up another veteran reliever in Javier Lopez to the San Francisco Giants for a pair of 27-year-olds, pitcher Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker. Lopez, while very effective as a left-handed arm out of the bullpen, is once again an unneeded commodity on a young, losing team. I like that the Pirates sold him at peak value for a couple of players, while not being top prospects, could potentially help them somewhere in the future. Martinez and Bowker have both shown some success in the minors and, who knows, maybe one or even both could become late bloomers in the big leagues.
As I said before, all-in-all, I like the three moves that the Pirates made at the deadline. I was not the only one who approved either, as Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory, gave the Pirates an A minus on all three of their deals. You can read more of Szymborski’s thoughts here: Grading the deadline deals.
There was one trade, however, that may have been off the radar of Pirates’ fans that certainly got my attention. The Washington Nationals traded closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos and left-hander Joe Testa. Despite having a bit of a down year, Ramos is still one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. Prior to this season, Ramos was a consensus top 100 prospect throughout baseball. Capps, as everyone will recall, was not tendered by the Pirates for arbitration, and indications were that the sides were only roughly $500 thousand apart. Huntington’s hard-line stance has now cost the Pirates a chance to acquire a top prospect such as Ramos.
This criticism should not come as a surprise to any of my readers as I went on numerous times in the preseason on why this was a terrible move on Huntington’s part. For all of the criticism Huntington has received, most of it undeserving at this point, this line of events should be getting more attention. There was no excuse at the time to let Capps walk, and the Nationals ability to spin Capps into such a valuable commodity only heightens the poor decision. So while I believe the actual moves made by the Pirates were a positive, I cannot help but think of the Capps’ events as the defining moment of this trade deadline.
Just like the past 17, soon to be 18 seasons, the Pirates have come out a loser.
Neal Huntington and his staff, all-in-all, did a pretty nice job this deadline, moving veteran relief pitchers for some pieces that could potentially help the Pirates down the line. The one deadline deal, however, that is quite possibly the biggest black mark on Huntington’s resume to date did not involve the Pirates at all. We will get to that in a second, but first, let’s take a look at the three trades the Pirates were involved with.
· The Pirates traded veteran reliever D.J. Carrasco and veterans Bobby Crosby and Ryan Church to Arizona for catcher Chris Snyder and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco, as well as $3 million in cash to help offset Snyder’s total of $8.2 million due through the end of 2011. In short, I love this move by the Pirates. Between the $1.2 million remaining in cost on the three players moved, the Pirates essentially picked up a solid major league catcher for the 2011 season for approximately $4 million and received a throw-in shortstop prospect to boot.
There is really nothing to be said of the three departed players. Church and Crosby were busts as free agent acquisitions and offered no value to the Pirates this year or in the future and Carrasco, while being quite effective this year out of the bullpen, is easily replaceable. In return, the Pirates picked up a potential starting catcher in Chris Snyder who is much better than his .231 average would indicate. For proof, Snyder’s three year average .OPS of .770 would rank 6th among National League catchers this year and he is known as a solid defensive catcher, something Pirates’ fans have not seen in some time. Snyder will also give the Pirates some flexibility in moving Ryan Doumit to either right field or first base, or even the option of moving him in another trade this offseason.
Ciriaco is known as a good defensive shortstop prospect with not much of a stick, as his career .659 OPS in the minors would indicate. Even still, with the Pirates glaring hole at the shortstop position throughout the organization, taking flyers on guys like this is a smart approach.
· The Pirates then sent closer Octavio Dotel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher James McDonald and minor league outfielder Andrew Lambo. Those around Pittsburgh were calling this a salary dump, while those nationally were calling this a nice trade by the Pirates. I fall in the second camp on this one, as a veteran closer makes no sense on a young team that is going to be lucky to win 60 games. McDonald is a 25-year-old pitcher with nice raw stuff and the ability to start while Lambo was once thought of as a high-end prospect until a drug suspension earlier this season derailed his progress some. Both are great examples of buy-low candidates who could become a significant part of the Pirates future. For more, check out Keith Law’s take on this trade here: Dodgers give up too much for Dotel.
· The third and final trade made by the Pirates was giving up another veteran reliever in Javier Lopez to the San Francisco Giants for a pair of 27-year-olds, pitcher Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker. Lopez, while very effective as a left-handed arm out of the bullpen, is once again an unneeded commodity on a young, losing team. I like that the Pirates sold him at peak value for a couple of players, while not being top prospects, could potentially help them somewhere in the future. Martinez and Bowker have both shown some success in the minors and, who knows, maybe one or even both could become late bloomers in the big leagues.
As I said before, all-in-all, I like the three moves that the Pirates made at the deadline. I was not the only one who approved either, as Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory, gave the Pirates an A minus on all three of their deals. You can read more of Szymborski’s thoughts here: Grading the deadline deals.
There was one trade, however, that may have been off the radar of Pirates’ fans that certainly got my attention. The Washington Nationals traded closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos and left-hander Joe Testa. Despite having a bit of a down year, Ramos is still one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. Prior to this season, Ramos was a consensus top 100 prospect throughout baseball. Capps, as everyone will recall, was not tendered by the Pirates for arbitration, and indications were that the sides were only roughly $500 thousand apart. Huntington’s hard-line stance has now cost the Pirates a chance to acquire a top prospect such as Ramos.
This criticism should not come as a surprise to any of my readers as I went on numerous times in the preseason on why this was a terrible move on Huntington’s part. For all of the criticism Huntington has received, most of it undeserving at this point, this line of events should be getting more attention. There was no excuse at the time to let Capps walk, and the Nationals ability to spin Capps into such a valuable commodity only heightens the poor decision. So while I believe the actual moves made by the Pirates were a positive, I cannot help but think of the Capps’ events as the defining moment of this trade deadline.
Just like the past 17, soon to be 18 seasons, the Pirates have come out a loser.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)