{Editor's Note: The site that runs this blog was down since Thursday night so this entry is going up much later than anticipated. With that occurrence, we will hold off until Monday with the MLB catch-up.}
I am writing this as they drop the puck for game seven of the Detroit-San Jose series, the only series in the second round that has given us any drama and if it wasn’t for the Red Wings rally from a 3-0 deficit this really would have been a boring round of Stanley Cup playoff action. If you are like me you were shocked to see the Lightning sweep the Caps. That’s four straight years Washington has failed to make it out of the Eastern Conference semifinals, twice losing in the first round, despite having Alex Ovechkin and a loaded roster. Despite being the coach of all four of those playoff failing teams, early rumors suggest that the Capitals are going to bring back coach Bruce Boudreau. That one certainly falls under the category of puzzling to me. Here are a few more NHL observations with the occasional update as I flip back and forth between the Sharks-Red Wings and Bulls-Hawks.
• Like I said, I was pretty shocked to see Tampa Bay roll the Capitals the way they did. I thought Washington’s deep and talented forward lines would overwhelm Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson and make it a rather short series in the Capitals favor. Boy, I could not have been more wrong. It just goes to show how different the Stanley Cup playoffs can be. Get a hot goalie, have a few stars on your roster and start playing good hockey at the right time and you can make a deep run. (With the Bulls currently steamrolling the Hawks on ESPN I have turned my attention to the Sharks game where San Jose earns the first power play of the game 11 minutes in.)
• Penguins’ fans taking solace in the fact that the Lightning swept Washington should stop. Just because Tampa Bay looks like they might have gotten on a roll now doesn’t make losing three straight elimination games, two on your home ice, any more excusable. If anything, Pens fans should be wondering “what if” after the Caps suffered another postseason collapse. (Beautiful power-play goal scored by the Sharks’ Devin Setoguchi off a no-look pass from Joe Thornton! Sharks go up 1-0! You might recall that I picked the Sharks to hoist the Cup from the beginning of the playoffs so I am certainly pulling for them tonight if for no other reason than that pick….as far as you know anyways.)
• I patted myself on the back enough yesterday talking about my Heat selection (and I am sure I will get plenty of flack if Miami slips up along the way) but I did want to remind people that I predicted it would be tough sledding in the playoffs for the Penguins without their stars. I took a lot of grief from Penguins fans about Fleury, our defense, and our role players being able to get on a roll but the simple truth in sports is that stars win championships, not role players. With a healthy Crosby and Malkin back next year, the Penguins will be right back on the short list of Cup contenders.
• One other quick Penguins thought before we move on. I love the idea of bringing Jaromir Jagr back if he is willing to come aboard at a reasonable contract. When I say reasonable, I mean one that is not much above the veteran minimum. Jagr can still put the puck in the net, as evidenced by his play at the World Championships, and he would be an instant upgrade on the power play. If “Jags” looks old or isn’t fitting in personality wise, the Penguins could easily give him the boot. If Jagr truly wants to play one more season in the NHL and only for a team that has a chance to compete for the Cup, I really don’t see a better fit than the Penguins. For the team, it could mean a potential low-risk, high reward proposition.
• Although it didn't come as much of a suprise as the Capitals being swept, it was still pretty hard to believe that the Flyers would also lose four straight at the hands of their longtime rivals in Boston. That means the Eastern Conference’s top two teams were both swept in the conference semifinals…pretty hard to believe. Philly’s injuries combined with their ongoing goalie rotation made this sweep a little easier to understand.
• I don’t think many people had a Tampa Bay-Boston matchup in their Stanley Cup playoff bracket. It should be an interesting contrast of styles as well with the defensive-minded Bruins taking on the high-scoring stars of Tampa Bay. I just like the way Roloson is competing in goal right now and think the Lightning have too much fire power for Boston up front. I’m taking the Lightning in six. (Goal by the Sharks! Logan Couture stuffs one in with less than a minute remaining in the 1st period, 2-0 Sharks. Bulls still up big, looks like we’re getting the Heat-Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals.)
• Over in the Western Conference, Vancouver finally rid themselves of their own playoff demons and advanced to the conference finals with a 4-2 series win over the Nashville Predators. The Canucks won a hard fought series in which every game was decided by two goals or less but it never really felt like they were in danger of losing control of the series. The series win has to make goalie Roberto Luongo feel good. Luongo is often considered one of, if not the best goalie in the NHL and had failed to get his team past the 2nd round of the playoffs in his previous three attempts. Luongo was even benched during the Canucks’ first round series for poor play but back-up Cory Schneider was injured in his lone start and Luongo led his team to a game seven win in which he may have established some playoff mojo. If the Sharks are able to hold onto their lead tonight, it would become a battle of the playoff-cursed franchises in the Western Conference Finals.
• What an incredible game seven between the Sharks and Red Wings. Just another example of why nothing in sports beats a game seven and that is especially true in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I thought the Sharks were going to blow not only a 3-0 series lead but a 2-0 and then 3-1 game seven lead in front of their home crowd but somehow, someway the Sharks were able to hold on for a 3-2 win. The Sharks advance to what should be a wonderful Western Conference Final with the Canucks. Many will probably proclaim that this series will be the real Stanley Cup Finals as either team will be heavily favored in the Finals against Tampa Bay or Boston. As you probably guessed, I am sticking with my original pick and taking the Sharks in six over the Canucks.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Catching Up on the NBA Playoffs
The blog has been a little light on content lately as I deal with the usual busy spring season with the real job (I know, who the heck cares about that)but staying up late watching the Grizzlies-Thunder triple overtime thriller on Monday night has inspired me to go overtime this week. Today we’ll catch up on the NBA playoffs and the shocking sweep of the two time defending champs. Tomorrow I will dive into the NHL playoffs and the lack of drama in the second round and finally on Friday we will catch up on the first quarter or so of the MLB season including your .500 Buccos! Now, on to The Association:
• The Lakers sweep at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks would not be so shocking if we just took a short look back on previous Kobe era flameouts. Pretty much every time the Lakers have lost a playoff series since Shaq and Kobe won their first three titles they have gone down with a bang. Starting with the 2003 Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Spurs, each time Kobe’s Lakers have lost a playoff series they have lost it in dramatic fashion. In that 2003 series, the Lakers lost to the underdog Spurs in six games including a 28 point loss to finish the series, they followed that up with a 5-game series loss to the heavily underdog Pistons in the ‘04 NBA Finals, a 31-point loss to the Suns in ’06 when Kobe quit in the second half of game 7, a first round loss in five games to the Suns in ’07 and a 39 point loss to the Celtics in game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2008. Throw in the embarrassing game 4 in the Mavs’ sweep this year and you can’t help but question the Lakers ability to compete when their backs are against the wall.
• What this says about Kobe Bryant in particular I am not real sure but for a guy who prides himself on his fierce competitive attitude, it has to be both embarrassing to him and counterintuitive to this perception for the rest of us. Could you ever imagine Michael Jordan going out like that? How about Larry Bird? Kobe’s place and legacy as a top 10 or so player of all-time is safe, but let’s forget about the conversation placing him anywhere near those guys. This is coming from a Kobe guy, mind you.
• The Lakers were beat by a pretty good team, though, so for as much as the story is about the Lakers getting swept, let us give credit to the Mavericks for a great series and a truly great shooting performance. Dirk Nowitzki is certainly enhancing his legacy as the greatest foreign born player of all time and he is quickly approaching the Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan class as the greatest power forward of all time.
• If you haven’t been watching much of the Oklahoma City-Memphis series, do yourself a favor and make it a point to watch the final three games. I know many people may not have been intrigued by this series between the late start times and the lack of familiarity with these rosters but this series has been phenomenal from the start and could very well be the beginning of a fierce rivalry for Western Conference supremacy over the coming years. Both teams are loaded with young talent, highlighted of course by the Blog’s former poster boy in Kevin Durant. The fierceness and competitiveness of this series was in full display during Monday night’s triple overtime thriller that the Thunder were able to pull out to even the series. I still think the Thunder win this series because Durant is the best player on the court but I am hoping for our viewing pleasure that it goes the distance.
• A Dallas-Oklahoma City Western Conference Finals may not have the flare that any series involving the Lakers would have but it would be an absolutely fantastic series that I could see going at least six and probably seven games. I don’t think Memphis-Dallas would be as great for drama purposes as Dallas’ veteran presence and ability to match Memphis’ size in the post would make it a fairly short series in the Mavericks’ favor. Needless to say I am rooting for a Durant-Dirk dual in the Western Conference Finals.
• Over in the Eastern Conference we have seen much more of what was anticipated outside of the Hawks upset of the Magic in the first round. Chicago, Boston and Miami put away their series in relatively short fashion.
• It may be of surprise to some that the Heat are up 3-1 on the Celtics, but not to me. I picked the Heat to win the title before the season, I urged patience when they got off to a slow start, I stuck with them when they lost five consecutive games near the end of the season and I picked them before the playoffs began. Guess what, I am still picking them. They have the best player in the world (by a larger margin than most people want to admit) and the guy who is at a minimum in the conversation for the 2nd best player on the planet. You could put a couple of puppies around them and they could contend for the title but they have another top 20 player and a few veteran role players who have been through the gauntlet before. That’s why I have never really waivered from my opinion that they are the best team in the league. I thought the Lakers could give the Heat fits with their size but I guess we’ll never get the opportunity to find out. It would be fun to see the Thunder take on the Heat in the Finals, though, in what could become the beginning of many great battles between Durant and LeBron.
• I am putting the finishing touches on this post as I watch the Bulls and Hawks battle in game five of their series (Editor’s note: The Bulls pulled out a 95-83 victory with a strong fourth quarter). I am big fan of Derrick Rose. I think he is the point guard version of LeBron James with the ability to dominate the game with his pure athleticism, combining speed, power and quickness. Rose may have even deserved the NBA MVP for the contributions he made to his own team during the regular season (he would have been fourth in my personal ballot but ultimately I did not have a big problem with Rose winning the award). Watching the playoffs, however, we can see why he is still just a step below the Kobe, LeBron and Wades of the league. When Rose is on he is almost unstoppable but when he’s off he doesn’t have the ability to dominate the game in other areas the way the greats do. I think Rose could reach that potential, he already took one big leap forward on the defensive end this year, but he needs to improve his playmaking ability for his teammates and begin to dominate on the defensive end the way LeBron and Kobe do when their teams need it.
• The Bulls will probably get past the Hawks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals but that’s where their phenomenal 2010-2011 season will end. I thought before the second round began that Boston-Miami was the real Eastern Conference Finals and watching this Bulls-Hawks series has just solidified that opinion for me. Start preparing yourself now for some over-the-top, can’t watch Sportscenter anymore hype when the Heat are battling the Mavs or Thunder in the NBA Finals.
• The Lakers sweep at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks would not be so shocking if we just took a short look back on previous Kobe era flameouts. Pretty much every time the Lakers have lost a playoff series since Shaq and Kobe won their first three titles they have gone down with a bang. Starting with the 2003 Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Spurs, each time Kobe’s Lakers have lost a playoff series they have lost it in dramatic fashion. In that 2003 series, the Lakers lost to the underdog Spurs in six games including a 28 point loss to finish the series, they followed that up with a 5-game series loss to the heavily underdog Pistons in the ‘04 NBA Finals, a 31-point loss to the Suns in ’06 when Kobe quit in the second half of game 7, a first round loss in five games to the Suns in ’07 and a 39 point loss to the Celtics in game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2008. Throw in the embarrassing game 4 in the Mavs’ sweep this year and you can’t help but question the Lakers ability to compete when their backs are against the wall.
• What this says about Kobe Bryant in particular I am not real sure but for a guy who prides himself on his fierce competitive attitude, it has to be both embarrassing to him and counterintuitive to this perception for the rest of us. Could you ever imagine Michael Jordan going out like that? How about Larry Bird? Kobe’s place and legacy as a top 10 or so player of all-time is safe, but let’s forget about the conversation placing him anywhere near those guys. This is coming from a Kobe guy, mind you.
• The Lakers were beat by a pretty good team, though, so for as much as the story is about the Lakers getting swept, let us give credit to the Mavericks for a great series and a truly great shooting performance. Dirk Nowitzki is certainly enhancing his legacy as the greatest foreign born player of all time and he is quickly approaching the Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan class as the greatest power forward of all time.
• If you haven’t been watching much of the Oklahoma City-Memphis series, do yourself a favor and make it a point to watch the final three games. I know many people may not have been intrigued by this series between the late start times and the lack of familiarity with these rosters but this series has been phenomenal from the start and could very well be the beginning of a fierce rivalry for Western Conference supremacy over the coming years. Both teams are loaded with young talent, highlighted of course by the Blog’s former poster boy in Kevin Durant. The fierceness and competitiveness of this series was in full display during Monday night’s triple overtime thriller that the Thunder were able to pull out to even the series. I still think the Thunder win this series because Durant is the best player on the court but I am hoping for our viewing pleasure that it goes the distance.
• A Dallas-Oklahoma City Western Conference Finals may not have the flare that any series involving the Lakers would have but it would be an absolutely fantastic series that I could see going at least six and probably seven games. I don’t think Memphis-Dallas would be as great for drama purposes as Dallas’ veteran presence and ability to match Memphis’ size in the post would make it a fairly short series in the Mavericks’ favor. Needless to say I am rooting for a Durant-Dirk dual in the Western Conference Finals.
• Over in the Eastern Conference we have seen much more of what was anticipated outside of the Hawks upset of the Magic in the first round. Chicago, Boston and Miami put away their series in relatively short fashion.
• It may be of surprise to some that the Heat are up 3-1 on the Celtics, but not to me. I picked the Heat to win the title before the season, I urged patience when they got off to a slow start, I stuck with them when they lost five consecutive games near the end of the season and I picked them before the playoffs began. Guess what, I am still picking them. They have the best player in the world (by a larger margin than most people want to admit) and the guy who is at a minimum in the conversation for the 2nd best player on the planet. You could put a couple of puppies around them and they could contend for the title but they have another top 20 player and a few veteran role players who have been through the gauntlet before. That’s why I have never really waivered from my opinion that they are the best team in the league. I thought the Lakers could give the Heat fits with their size but I guess we’ll never get the opportunity to find out. It would be fun to see the Thunder take on the Heat in the Finals, though, in what could become the beginning of many great battles between Durant and LeBron.
• I am putting the finishing touches on this post as I watch the Bulls and Hawks battle in game five of their series (Editor’s note: The Bulls pulled out a 95-83 victory with a strong fourth quarter). I am big fan of Derrick Rose. I think he is the point guard version of LeBron James with the ability to dominate the game with his pure athleticism, combining speed, power and quickness. Rose may have even deserved the NBA MVP for the contributions he made to his own team during the regular season (he would have been fourth in my personal ballot but ultimately I did not have a big problem with Rose winning the award). Watching the playoffs, however, we can see why he is still just a step below the Kobe, LeBron and Wades of the league. When Rose is on he is almost unstoppable but when he’s off he doesn’t have the ability to dominate the game in other areas the way the greats do. I think Rose could reach that potential, he already took one big leap forward on the defensive end this year, but he needs to improve his playmaking ability for his teammates and begin to dominate on the defensive end the way LeBron and Kobe do when their teams need it.
• The Bulls will probably get past the Hawks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals but that’s where their phenomenal 2010-2011 season will end. I thought before the second round began that Boston-Miami was the real Eastern Conference Finals and watching this Bulls-Hawks series has just solidified that opinion for me. Start preparing yourself now for some over-the-top, can’t watch Sportscenter anymore hype when the Heat are battling the Mavs or Thunder in the NBA Finals.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Pirates Showing Improvement
Those that stayed up late last night saw the Pirates commit a series of miscues and poor decisions that led to blowing a late lead and a shot at .500. The loss had the feel of one of those “same old Buccos” losses that we have become accustomed to over the past 18 years. Those losses, however, have been few and far between so far this year. At the 30-game mark, the Pirates sit a respectable 14-16 and only three games out of first place in the NL Central. While the Pirates have gotten off to some decent starts during their current consecutive losing seasons streak, there is some legitimate cause for hope stemming from this relative batch of competent play.
First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.
Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.
With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.
While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.
The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.
Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.
First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.
Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.
With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.
While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.
The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.
Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.
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