I was on vacation last week in Myrtle Beach, SC, a popular relaxation destination for many Pittsburghers, where the excitement over the Buccos was everywhere. There are many years when my family takes the voyage down to Myrtle Beach only it usually falls in early June where by then the Pirates have normally been eliminated from contention already. Being there in July, with the Pirates claiming a share of first place, only made it sweeter to see the excitement and hope for Pittsburgh Pirates fans for the first time in what seems like eternity.
With this excitement both in Pittsburgh and from Pirates fans around the country in mind, I decided to take an extended lunch yesterday to check out your first place Buccos in action against the Cincinnati Reds. Besides the general importance of the game and the Pirates looking to complete a sweep, it was an opportunity to see a great pitching match-up in Jeff Karstens, with his 2nd best NL ERA, going up against Johnny Cueto and his would be NL best ERA had he pitched enough innings.
I came away from the game with two thoughts, both already somewhat swirling around in my head but only confirmed further by being in attendance. First, the excitement and enthusiasm for these Buccos is real and hardcore. You got the sense of this from watching on TV during the Boston and Philadelphia series, and even the Cubs and Astros series before the break, but to see a crowd of 25,000+ on a weekday afternoon in full support of these Buccos was fantastic. I have been to many of these early afternoon games in the past when you could count the number of fans in the lower levels of the stadium.
Secondly, the Pirates desperately need Pedro Alvarez back in the line-up. I have no idea why he is still in AAA, we know that the guy can hit minor league pitching, it’s time to bring him back up to the majors, plug him in at third base and in the clean-up spot and see what he can do. No offense to Chase D’Arnaud, he’s young and needs more time to develop, but he has been awful during his time in Pittsburgh. I cannot even fathom why Clint Hurdle continues to bat him in the #2 spot in the order. Hurdle is giving away valuable and critical at-bats in the middle of a pennant race. D’Arnaud single-handedly cost the Buccos the game yesterday with two atrocious errors. He also came to bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and hit a weak fly ball to right on the first pitch in the third and then later flew out to left with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in the seventh inning (this after a failed bunt attempt by Alex Presley, a horrible bunt but an even worse decision to have him bunting there). One game is one game, but D’Arnaud has been terrible his entire time in the big leagues with the exception of a fine defensive play here or there. The 24-year-old shortstop prospect is batting .225 with an OPS of .542. He has 5 extra base hits in 89 at-bats and zero home runs. He also has 7 errors in 21 games played. For the love of Pirates fans, please send this kid back to AAA.
Meanwhile, despite the terrible start Pedro Alvarez got off to this season, he still seems like Babe Ruth compared to the punch and judy hitters the Pirates have been running out there at third base in his absence. Between D’Arnaud mentioned above, Josh Harrison (.576 OPS) and Brandon Wood (.642 OPS) the Pirates third basemen have been another empty spot in a line-up that already has too many deficiencies. Alvarez hit 16 HRs last year in 347 Abs, a pace that would put him in line to be a 30 HR guy despite a tough transition period to the Major Leagues. It is time the Pirates put their faith back in the top prospect they have had since Chad Hermansen and see what the kid can do. We know he can hit AAA pitching where he is hitting .340 with an OPS over .900 in 14 games during his rehab assignment. It is time the Pirates plug him into the #4 spot in a line-up that is dying for an influx of power. Putting Pedro #4 would allow Walker and McCutchen to move up a spot in the order, where they should be anyhow, and give the Pirates a line-up that at least resembles what a Major League line-up should look like.
I am not sure how Alvarez will respond to a recall to the Pirates. His track record tells us that he is a slow-starter which gives me great reason for optimism and I saw enough of the young third-baseman last year to know that at a minimum he is going to hit some home-runs. Whether he develops into a great player will probably depend on his ability to put the ball in play but again, I think we are talking about a guy who is going to hit 30 home runs per season and possibly more. Whether that comes with a .230 batting average or a .270 average will ultimately determine how good of a player he is, but even the poor end of Alvarez’ projected production would be a major upgrade to this Pittsburgh Pirates line-up. It is time the Pirates recall Alvarez and plug him into his normal spot at third. Any hope at a continued run at the division is dependent on it.
Showing posts with label Clint Hurdle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Clint Hurdle. Show all posts
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Pirates Showing Improvement
Those that stayed up late last night saw the Pirates commit a series of miscues and poor decisions that led to blowing a late lead and a shot at .500. The loss had the feel of one of those “same old Buccos” losses that we have become accustomed to over the past 18 years. Those losses, however, have been few and far between so far this year. At the 30-game mark, the Pirates sit a respectable 14-16 and only three games out of first place in the NL Central. While the Pirates have gotten off to some decent starts during their current consecutive losing seasons streak, there is some legitimate cause for hope stemming from this relative batch of competent play.
First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.
Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.
With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.
While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.
The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.
Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.
First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.
Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.
With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.
While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.
The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.
Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.
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