The college football season is in full effect and after Ryan Mallet’s fourth quarter meltdown, Texas became the only true national title contender to suffer defeat so far. The top 14 teams in both the Associated Press Pool and USA Today Coaches’ Pool remain undefeated, and 19 teams in all of the current top 25 remain without a loss. Scanning the top 25, here are some of my random thoughts to this point.
· Alabama and Ohio State are the top two teams in the country, hands down. Watching these teams play and it is evident that the depth and talent level is superior to the rest of the country. That does not mean either will go undefeated, however, as both have a number of tough road games remaining.
· With apologies to Denard Robinson, my favorite for the Heisman remains Terrelle Pryor. Pryor looks to be a much more polished passer now in his third year as the starting quarterback and his athletic ability is second to none. If Ohio State goes undefeated, Pryor will be holding the hardware in New York.
· I believed in the Boise hype prior to the season and they have done nothing to disappoint. Their lines would not hold up over a twelve game schedule in the SEC or Big Ten, but in a one game scenario they can play with anyone.
· TCU, on the other hand, does have the personnel to hold up in any conference in the country. With all of Boise State’s hype, TCU goes under the radar somewhat but they are every bit as talented (and probably even more so) than the blue-turfers.
· Stanford and Oregon square off in the Pac 10 this week. If you get the chance to tune in, do so. I have seen both of these teams numerous times this year and both are legitimate title contenders. If Alabama and/or Ohio State gets knocked off the winner of this game may very well be playing for the national championship.
· Oklahoma and Florida remain title contenders but in very different fashions. Florida’s defense and Oklahoma’s offense have been tremendous while the other side of the ball for each has been very suspect. Both get their first true test this week, it’s time for them to put a complete performance together or they could find themselves in serious trouble.
· The final team I can see potentially competing for the national title is Nebraska. The defense is just as good as last year with an incredibly talented secondary and the offense has been more dynamic led by freshman Taylor Martinez. Martinez must prove he can move the ball through the air, however, if the Cornhuskers are going to run the table in the Big 12. The one consolation is that the Huskers will avoid the Sooners until a potential Big 12 Championship game.
· As for the remaining undefeated teams, I see too many inconsistencies to see a true title run. The best of the bunch are Wisconsin, Auburn and Arizona. Utah is a talented group, but the injury situation at QB has to be very concerning.
· The one x-factor for the remaining undefeated teams is the previously mentioned Denard Robinson. Robinson has proven to be unstoppable to this point, but the schedule gets a whole lot more difficult in the coming weeks. If Robinson can get the Wolverines to 10 or 11 wins, I think we will be seeing him in New York as well.
· As for the one loss teams, Miami remains an interesting team with the amount of talent they are trotting out every week. If the Hurricanes can stop shooting themselves in the foot they could very easily make a run through the ACC.
· Iowa and Arkansas, though eliminated from the title picture, will continue to make noise in their respective conferences and I don’t think we have heard the last from Steve Spurrier’s boys at South Carolina either.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Week 3 NFL Picks
You may have noticed a considerable lack of writing this week, especially in light of my promise to talk some baseball and college football this week. I did have a valid excuse though as my wife gave birth to our first child on Wednesday, a baby girl…so cut me some slack! Mom and baby are doing great and I promise to catch up on the college football scene and end of the baseball regular season next week.
I can’t, however, postpone my week three NFL picks after another decent performance in week two. Going 9-6-1 against the spread last week brings my overall record on the year to 17-12-3, a very solid 59% winning percentage. In between the many visitors and very few hours of sleep we got over the past few days, it was actually quite easy to stay updated on the world of sports thanks to the hospital’s fantastic guest internet service and a steady diet of ESPN on the tube. I must say that I have no excuses for this week’s picks, unless of course I bomb! Let’s get to it.
(home teams in caps)
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee – The Giants ran into a tough match-up in Indianapolis last week. I expect Eli and company to bounce back and earn a hard fought win at home.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Josh Freeman has played well in the first two weeks but he has not seen anything resembling this Pittsburgh defense.
BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Cleveland – Baltimore’s offense has really struggled so far. This has the feel of one of those games where everything finally clicks and the Ravens post a big number on the scoreboard. Seneca Wallace will not be posting a big number against the Ravens defense.
Atlanta (+4) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans has not been overly impressive in the first two weeks and Atlanta is very familiar with their attack. I expect this to be one of the better games of the weekend, and expect it to ultimately be decided by a field goal.
San Francisco (-2.5) over KANSAS CITY – The 49ers looked like the team we expected them to be Monday night against the Saints. Now they need to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo – It’s usually not a very good sign when you’re turning to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for a spark. Tom Brady will rebound in a big way from last week’s subpar performance.
Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA – The defense that showed up last week in Cincinnati is the one we should expect going forward. That’s not a good thing for Jimmy Clausen who is making his first career start.
MINNESOTA (-11) over Detroit – See Baltimore game above (just substitute Shaun Hill for Seneca Wallace).
Dallas (+3) over HOUSTON – I’m not backing off the Cowboys now as they were my preseason Super Bowl pick. If they lose again this week, it will become time to reevaluate.
Indianapolis (-5.5) over DENVER – I have said a few times now that Denver is a significantly better team at home but having a banged up secondary is no way to face off with Peyton Manning.
Washington (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS – Redskins fans are going to be complaining that their team should be 3-0 after this week. Would of, could of, should of…
San Diego (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Much like Denver, I hate going against Seattle at home. Still, I can’t get over the fact that this team does not look very talented to me.
Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE – The Michael Vick revival continues.
Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA – I simply cannot give more than a field goal with Derek Anderson at QB. I also like the way that Oakland played last week in the second half. This should be a tight one, if not a particularly well played one.
MIAMI (-2) over New York Jets – I don’t expect Miami to sit back and allow Mark Sanchez time to throw the way the Patriots did last week. This should be a good, low-scoring contest and the absence of Revis Island could very well be the difference.
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO – Simply not going against the Packers until they prove me wrong. Cutler is due for a few interceptions anyhow.
I can’t, however, postpone my week three NFL picks after another decent performance in week two. Going 9-6-1 against the spread last week brings my overall record on the year to 17-12-3, a very solid 59% winning percentage. In between the many visitors and very few hours of sleep we got over the past few days, it was actually quite easy to stay updated on the world of sports thanks to the hospital’s fantastic guest internet service and a steady diet of ESPN on the tube. I must say that I have no excuses for this week’s picks, unless of course I bomb! Let’s get to it.
(home teams in caps)
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee – The Giants ran into a tough match-up in Indianapolis last week. I expect Eli and company to bounce back and earn a hard fought win at home.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Josh Freeman has played well in the first two weeks but he has not seen anything resembling this Pittsburgh defense.
BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Cleveland – Baltimore’s offense has really struggled so far. This has the feel of one of those games where everything finally clicks and the Ravens post a big number on the scoreboard. Seneca Wallace will not be posting a big number against the Ravens defense.
Atlanta (+4) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans has not been overly impressive in the first two weeks and Atlanta is very familiar with their attack. I expect this to be one of the better games of the weekend, and expect it to ultimately be decided by a field goal.
San Francisco (-2.5) over KANSAS CITY – The 49ers looked like the team we expected them to be Monday night against the Saints. Now they need to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo – It’s usually not a very good sign when you’re turning to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for a spark. Tom Brady will rebound in a big way from last week’s subpar performance.
Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA – The defense that showed up last week in Cincinnati is the one we should expect going forward. That’s not a good thing for Jimmy Clausen who is making his first career start.
MINNESOTA (-11) over Detroit – See Baltimore game above (just substitute Shaun Hill for Seneca Wallace).
Dallas (+3) over HOUSTON – I’m not backing off the Cowboys now as they were my preseason Super Bowl pick. If they lose again this week, it will become time to reevaluate.
Indianapolis (-5.5) over DENVER – I have said a few times now that Denver is a significantly better team at home but having a banged up secondary is no way to face off with Peyton Manning.
Washington (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS – Redskins fans are going to be complaining that their team should be 3-0 after this week. Would of, could of, should of…
San Diego (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Much like Denver, I hate going against Seattle at home. Still, I can’t get over the fact that this team does not look very talented to me.
Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE – The Michael Vick revival continues.
Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA – I simply cannot give more than a field goal with Derek Anderson at QB. I also like the way that Oakland played last week in the second half. This should be a tight one, if not a particularly well played one.
MIAMI (-2) over New York Jets – I don’t expect Miami to sit back and allow Mark Sanchez time to throw the way the Patriots did last week. This should be a good, low-scoring contest and the absence of Revis Island could very well be the difference.
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO – Simply not going against the Packers until they prove me wrong. Cutler is due for a few interceptions anyhow.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Week Two NFL Power Rankings
Instead of taking a look game by game, here are my updated NFL Power Rankings after two weeks along with what we know about each team. Some of the familiar faces remain up top, but two Super Bowl hopefuls in the NFC take a dramatic drop after poor performances at home dropped them to 0-2.
1. New Orleans Saints – The Saints take over the top spot pending their match-up at San Francisco tonight. What we know: Drew Brees and the offense are going to score points. (Editor's Note: The Saints keep their top spot after a hard fought road victory against a desperate 49ers team.)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Does any single unit in the NFL look better than the Steelers defense right now? Can three linebackers (Timmons, Woodley, Harrison) from the same team earn All-Pro? Should the Steelers play Antwaan Randle El at QB in week three if Dixon and Leftwich can’t go? What we know: The defense, if healthy, is Super Bowl good.
3. Green Bay Packers – Everyone’s chic pick for the Super Bowl looks that much better after watching Dallas and Minnesota stumble out of the gates. Clay Matthews looks like a one-man wrecking crew (six sacks in two games) and the Pack defense has 10 sacks already; can they keep that kind of pressure up? What we know: Aaron Rodgers is pretty good.
4. Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning and the Colts looked just fine last night beating up on little brother. What we know: The Colts will finish somewhere around the 12 win mark.
5. New England Patriots – With apologies to some of the 2-0 teams out there, New England still has the look of Super Bowl contender. What surprised me the most against the Jets yesterday was the vanilla defensive gameplan by Bill Belichick. Why give Mark Sanchez time? The guy has proven he is terrible right now under pressure, why oblige and send only three and four man rushes. What we know: Tom Brady had a fairly ordinary game in New York, he’ll bounce back just fine.
6. Houston Texans – Beating the Super Bowl favorites convincingly at home and following it up by completing a 17-point comeback on the road earns you the biggest jump in our rankings. What we know: The Texans offense can score points in a hurry.
7. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers sure looked like they didn’t miss Vincent Jackson in yesterday’s beat down of the Jaguars. What we know: The Chargers are a thunderstorm and a conservative play-calling series away from being 2-0.
8. New York Jets – Rex Ryan probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his defensive gameplans and play-calling. Anyone else notice that the Jets defense got better against the pass when Revis went out of the game? What we know: The Jets defense is terrific and Mark Sanchez can be effective with time.
9. Cincinnati Bengals – With the early struggles of the Cowboys and Vikings, the AFC looks even further superior to the NFC than what I had initially thought. The Bengals defense rebounded nicely from a terrible week one performance, but the offense has to find a way to put seven, and not three, on the board. What we know: The Bengals defense isn’t nearly as bad as they were against New England.
10. Baltimore Ravens – So much for that talk about the Ravens offense now leading the way in Baltimore. The Ravens need to find a way to kick start their running game which has looked ordinary in the first two weeks, albeit against two very good defenses. What we know: Ray Lewis looks 25-years-old and has this defense playing like a top five caliber unit once again.
11. Atlanta Falcons – Showed good offensive balance in their 41-7 drumming of the Cardinals. What we know: Matt Ryan needs to become more consistent week to week for the Falcons to become Super Bowl contenders.
12. Tennessee Titans – Don’t take too much from the Titans offensive performance against the Steelers as they usually struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that excels at stopping the run. Chris Johnson and Vince Young will be just fine. What we know: The Titans wide receivers are nothing to fear.
13. Miami Dolphins – The ‘Fins go to Minnesota for a big win and an opening 2-0 start with both victories coming on the road, a great recipe towards earning a playoff berth. What we know: The Dolphins still need more from their passing game, averaging less than 150 yards passing in their first two contests.
14. Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota’s passing game looks downright atrocious right now. What we know: The Vikings need to rely even more on Adrian Peterson until Favre gets going and Sidney Rice comes back (or they trade for Vincent Jackson).
15. Chicago Bears – If Jay Cutler performs the rest of the year the way he did yesterday, I have the Bears severely under-ranked at number 15. I have my doubts though. What we know: The Bears offense already looks significantly improved under Mike Martz after only two games.
16. New York Giants – I’ll give the nod to the Giants for now in what looks like a jumbled mess in the NFC East. If I could pick any one team or the field to win this division right now, I would most certainly take the field. What we know: The Giants plan to make Peyton Manning run the football last night didn’t work out too well.
17. Washington Redskins – Blowing a 17-point second half lead is the type of loss that can have a team watching the playoffs on television. There is no way that Mike Shanahan and company can allow that to happen at home. What we know: Donovan McNabb (along with Shanahan) has given this team instant credibility.
18. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are off to a miserable start and with their brutal schedule must get it together before it’s too late. Luckily for Dallas the rest of the NFC East, and really the entire NFC, has shown obvious flaws as well. What we know: Wade Phillips seat is getting awfully warm.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – If Michael Vick was going to be the starter going forward I would probably have the Eagles a few spots higher. I don’t blame Andy Reid for playing Kevin Kolb, however, because if it were about this season only Philadelphia would not have traded McNabb. What we know: Philadelphia area sports-talk radio should be pretty darn interesting this week.
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Raise your hand if you had the Steelers, Texans, Dolphins and Chiefs as the only undefeated AFC teams after two weeks. I don’t understand the Chiefs’ strategy of not using Jamaal Charles more but it’s hard to argue with the job new coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel have done. What we know: The Chiefs have done a good job of acquiring good young talent.
21. Denver Broncos – I think Josh McDaniels is one of the better in-game coaches in football. His personnel decisions, however, can certainly be questioned. What we know: The Broncos are a completely different team at home and on the road.
22. San Francisco 49ers – I am very interested in seeing how the 49ers rebound tonight against the defending champs. Their performance could move them way up or way down these rankings. What we know: The Niners need a much better performance from Frank Gore tonight if they are going to have a chance to win. (Editor's Note: The 49ers probably deserve to be a few spots higher after their spirited performance Monday night. We'll keep them here for the time being as they are sure to move themselves up the rankings if they continue to perform at that level.)
23. Seattle Seahawks – The excitement from the beginning of the Pete Carroll era lasted a whole one week in Seattle. What we know: Much like the Broncos, the Seahawks are a completely different team at home than they are on the road.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The lowest ranked team among those still unbeaten deserves a ton of credit for finding a way to win football games. I think the Bucs’ start has a lot more to do with facing Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore at QB than anything else, however. What we know: Nobody had the Bucs and Steelers on a collision course of unbeaten teams going into week three!
25. Jacksonville Jaguars – It probably wasn’t the best day David Garrard has ever had on a football field Sunday after throwing four interceptions against the Chargers. What we know: The Jaguars are probably the best of the bad teams in the NFL, but that really isn’t saying much.
26. Detroit Lions – The Lions suffered another hard-fought loss to the Eagles after managing a late rally to pull within three. What we know: After so many years of complete incompetence from Detroit’s front office, things are finally going in the right direction for Lions’ fans.
27. Carolina Panthers – Carolina should have listened to my strategy of trying to win a game without attempting a single pass. Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, who was inserted late for the ineffective Moore, finished a combined 13-29 for 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 interceptions, four sacks allowed and a lost fumble. Carolina fans might be asking for the return of Delhomme at this point…or maybe not. What we know: The Panthers need to find some semblance of a passing game.
28. Oakland Raiders – I said the Raiders needed to beat the Rams by four points at home if they are going to show any improvement this year. Well they would have, except for the terrible play-calling in the fourth quarter that allowed St. Louis to backdoor a cover. Jason Campbell was also pulled for Bruce Gradkowski, former midget football teammate of mine, in what clearly was a motivational ploy by head coach Tom Cable, and one that worked. What we know: Run DMC (Darren McFadden) looks like he may finally be realizing all of that potential he brought to the league after leaving Arkansas.
29. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are probably lucky to be 1-1 at this point. What we know: Coach Whisenhunt and Larry Fitzgerald will probably watch Kurt Warner on Dancing with the Stars tonight and think, ‘you left us for this!’
30. Cleveland Browns – Cleveland has lost their two games by a combined five points. Unfortunately for them, there are no bonus points for close losses. What we know: You are not going to win many football games with Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace behind center.
31. St. Louis Rams – Say what you want about the Rams but the team has been very competitive in each of its first two games, already a big improvement from last year. What we know: Sam Bradford has a ton of promise but he still has a long way to go to get there.
32. Buffalo Bills – If you’re still reading this you already know how bad Buffalo is. What we know: The Bills should trade one of their three running backs to Green Bay.
1. New Orleans Saints – The Saints take over the top spot pending their match-up at San Francisco tonight. What we know: Drew Brees and the offense are going to score points. (Editor's Note: The Saints keep their top spot after a hard fought road victory against a desperate 49ers team.)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Does any single unit in the NFL look better than the Steelers defense right now? Can three linebackers (Timmons, Woodley, Harrison) from the same team earn All-Pro? Should the Steelers play Antwaan Randle El at QB in week three if Dixon and Leftwich can’t go? What we know: The defense, if healthy, is Super Bowl good.
3. Green Bay Packers – Everyone’s chic pick for the Super Bowl looks that much better after watching Dallas and Minnesota stumble out of the gates. Clay Matthews looks like a one-man wrecking crew (six sacks in two games) and the Pack defense has 10 sacks already; can they keep that kind of pressure up? What we know: Aaron Rodgers is pretty good.
4. Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning and the Colts looked just fine last night beating up on little brother. What we know: The Colts will finish somewhere around the 12 win mark.
5. New England Patriots – With apologies to some of the 2-0 teams out there, New England still has the look of Super Bowl contender. What surprised me the most against the Jets yesterday was the vanilla defensive gameplan by Bill Belichick. Why give Mark Sanchez time? The guy has proven he is terrible right now under pressure, why oblige and send only three and four man rushes. What we know: Tom Brady had a fairly ordinary game in New York, he’ll bounce back just fine.
6. Houston Texans – Beating the Super Bowl favorites convincingly at home and following it up by completing a 17-point comeback on the road earns you the biggest jump in our rankings. What we know: The Texans offense can score points in a hurry.
7. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers sure looked like they didn’t miss Vincent Jackson in yesterday’s beat down of the Jaguars. What we know: The Chargers are a thunderstorm and a conservative play-calling series away from being 2-0.
8. New York Jets – Rex Ryan probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his defensive gameplans and play-calling. Anyone else notice that the Jets defense got better against the pass when Revis went out of the game? What we know: The Jets defense is terrific and Mark Sanchez can be effective with time.
9. Cincinnati Bengals – With the early struggles of the Cowboys and Vikings, the AFC looks even further superior to the NFC than what I had initially thought. The Bengals defense rebounded nicely from a terrible week one performance, but the offense has to find a way to put seven, and not three, on the board. What we know: The Bengals defense isn’t nearly as bad as they were against New England.
10. Baltimore Ravens – So much for that talk about the Ravens offense now leading the way in Baltimore. The Ravens need to find a way to kick start their running game which has looked ordinary in the first two weeks, albeit against two very good defenses. What we know: Ray Lewis looks 25-years-old and has this defense playing like a top five caliber unit once again.
11. Atlanta Falcons – Showed good offensive balance in their 41-7 drumming of the Cardinals. What we know: Matt Ryan needs to become more consistent week to week for the Falcons to become Super Bowl contenders.
12. Tennessee Titans – Don’t take too much from the Titans offensive performance against the Steelers as they usually struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that excels at stopping the run. Chris Johnson and Vince Young will be just fine. What we know: The Titans wide receivers are nothing to fear.
13. Miami Dolphins – The ‘Fins go to Minnesota for a big win and an opening 2-0 start with both victories coming on the road, a great recipe towards earning a playoff berth. What we know: The Dolphins still need more from their passing game, averaging less than 150 yards passing in their first two contests.
14. Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota’s passing game looks downright atrocious right now. What we know: The Vikings need to rely even more on Adrian Peterson until Favre gets going and Sidney Rice comes back (or they trade for Vincent Jackson).
15. Chicago Bears – If Jay Cutler performs the rest of the year the way he did yesterday, I have the Bears severely under-ranked at number 15. I have my doubts though. What we know: The Bears offense already looks significantly improved under Mike Martz after only two games.
16. New York Giants – I’ll give the nod to the Giants for now in what looks like a jumbled mess in the NFC East. If I could pick any one team or the field to win this division right now, I would most certainly take the field. What we know: The Giants plan to make Peyton Manning run the football last night didn’t work out too well.
17. Washington Redskins – Blowing a 17-point second half lead is the type of loss that can have a team watching the playoffs on television. There is no way that Mike Shanahan and company can allow that to happen at home. What we know: Donovan McNabb (along with Shanahan) has given this team instant credibility.
18. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are off to a miserable start and with their brutal schedule must get it together before it’s too late. Luckily for Dallas the rest of the NFC East, and really the entire NFC, has shown obvious flaws as well. What we know: Wade Phillips seat is getting awfully warm.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – If Michael Vick was going to be the starter going forward I would probably have the Eagles a few spots higher. I don’t blame Andy Reid for playing Kevin Kolb, however, because if it were about this season only Philadelphia would not have traded McNabb. What we know: Philadelphia area sports-talk radio should be pretty darn interesting this week.
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Raise your hand if you had the Steelers, Texans, Dolphins and Chiefs as the only undefeated AFC teams after two weeks. I don’t understand the Chiefs’ strategy of not using Jamaal Charles more but it’s hard to argue with the job new coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel have done. What we know: The Chiefs have done a good job of acquiring good young talent.
21. Denver Broncos – I think Josh McDaniels is one of the better in-game coaches in football. His personnel decisions, however, can certainly be questioned. What we know: The Broncos are a completely different team at home and on the road.
22. San Francisco 49ers – I am very interested in seeing how the 49ers rebound tonight against the defending champs. Their performance could move them way up or way down these rankings. What we know: The Niners need a much better performance from Frank Gore tonight if they are going to have a chance to win. (Editor's Note: The 49ers probably deserve to be a few spots higher after their spirited performance Monday night. We'll keep them here for the time being as they are sure to move themselves up the rankings if they continue to perform at that level.)
23. Seattle Seahawks – The excitement from the beginning of the Pete Carroll era lasted a whole one week in Seattle. What we know: Much like the Broncos, the Seahawks are a completely different team at home than they are on the road.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The lowest ranked team among those still unbeaten deserves a ton of credit for finding a way to win football games. I think the Bucs’ start has a lot more to do with facing Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore at QB than anything else, however. What we know: Nobody had the Bucs and Steelers on a collision course of unbeaten teams going into week three!
25. Jacksonville Jaguars – It probably wasn’t the best day David Garrard has ever had on a football field Sunday after throwing four interceptions against the Chargers. What we know: The Jaguars are probably the best of the bad teams in the NFL, but that really isn’t saying much.
26. Detroit Lions – The Lions suffered another hard-fought loss to the Eagles after managing a late rally to pull within three. What we know: After so many years of complete incompetence from Detroit’s front office, things are finally going in the right direction for Lions’ fans.
27. Carolina Panthers – Carolina should have listened to my strategy of trying to win a game without attempting a single pass. Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, who was inserted late for the ineffective Moore, finished a combined 13-29 for 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 interceptions, four sacks allowed and a lost fumble. Carolina fans might be asking for the return of Delhomme at this point…or maybe not. What we know: The Panthers need to find some semblance of a passing game.
28. Oakland Raiders – I said the Raiders needed to beat the Rams by four points at home if they are going to show any improvement this year. Well they would have, except for the terrible play-calling in the fourth quarter that allowed St. Louis to backdoor a cover. Jason Campbell was also pulled for Bruce Gradkowski, former midget football teammate of mine, in what clearly was a motivational ploy by head coach Tom Cable, and one that worked. What we know: Run DMC (Darren McFadden) looks like he may finally be realizing all of that potential he brought to the league after leaving Arkansas.
29. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are probably lucky to be 1-1 at this point. What we know: Coach Whisenhunt and Larry Fitzgerald will probably watch Kurt Warner on Dancing with the Stars tonight and think, ‘you left us for this!’
30. Cleveland Browns – Cleveland has lost their two games by a combined five points. Unfortunately for them, there are no bonus points for close losses. What we know: You are not going to win many football games with Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace behind center.
31. St. Louis Rams – Say what you want about the Rams but the team has been very competitive in each of its first two games, already a big improvement from last year. What we know: Sam Bradford has a ton of promise but he still has a long way to go to get there.
32. Buffalo Bills – If you’re still reading this you already know how bad Buffalo is. What we know: The Bills should trade one of their three running backs to Green Bay.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Week 2 NFL Picks
I have focused my writing pretty much entirely on the NFL the past couple of weeks as the excitement for the new season has got the best of me. That doesn’t mean I haven’t been playing close attention to the rest of the sports world. Next week it will be time to catch up on some of my year-end baseball thoughts and devote some time to the college gridiron leading up to Pitt’s big show down on Thursday night with Miami.
(In reality, there hasn’t been much to talk about on a national scale in college football. This week’s slate of games is rather weak and all of the favorites won in last week’s marquee match-ups except Michigan, who was aided by the injury to Notre Dame’s quarterback. The only major storylines have been whether Boise should play for the national title, (yawn!) and Michigan QB Denard Robinson who has the look of Michael Vick 2.0).
Before we take a break from the NFL, however, it’s time to take a look at my picks for week two. Last week I finished a decent 8-6-2, with disappointing losses from the Cowboys and Chargers who I thought both outplayed their opponent for the most part. Week two in the NFL is often the most difficult week of the season as we try to decipher what was real and what was an aberration after one week. Let’s do it…
(home teams in caps)
GREEN BAY (-13) over Buffalo – Green Bay is going to score points, it doesn’t matter who they play. In what I thought was a rather bad game for Aaron Rodgers against a pretty good defense last week, Green Bay still managed 27 points. I expect that number to be higher this week and cannot see Trent Edwards keeping up.
Pittsburgh (+5) over TENNESSEE – The Steelers match-up well with the Titans as the entire Tennessee offense is built on the running game and nobody runs the ball well on the Steelers. Chris Johnson had 57 yards on 15 carries last year, his second lowest output of the season. The Steelers may not win this one, but I expect it to be close.
Kansas City (+2) over CLEVELAND – Kansas City looks a little frisky this year and you have to love their young playmakers. Meanwhile, Seneca Wallace will be starting for Cleveland. Unless Josh Cribbs returns three kicks for scores, I like the Chiefs to get off to their first 2-0 start since 2005.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay – I hope nobody misses this Matt Moore vs. Josh Freeman shootout! Seriously, the Panthers should attempt to win this game by not attempting a single pass. I bet they could do it. Actually, it might be a better strategy than the one that allowed Matt Moore to turn the ball over four times last week.
CINCINNATI (+2.5) over Baltimore – Let’s pretend that last week didn’t happen and we would be looking at a line somewhere in the neighborhood of Cincinnati giving three. Because of one week’s events, you’re telling me this line reversed nearly six points? Not to mention the fact that Baltimore is playing its second consecutive road game on a short week against another physical opponent. Cincinnati should be able to exploit Baltimore’s weak and banged up secondary while their defense should rebound from a disappointing opening week.
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Miami – I struggled with this one as 5.5 seems a bit much with Minnesota’s passing game in the shape that it is. That being said, I expect a great performance from A-Pete and a 7-10 point win for the Vikings at home.
DALLAS (-7) over Chicago – Chicago is looking to avoid a 0-2 start…wait, what? They didn’t count Calvin Johnson’s catch?!? Anyways, Dallas’ pass rush should be all over Jay Cutler this week and you know what means, interceptions galore! If the Cowboys can give Tony Romo any amount of time, I think a big performance at home is in store.
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona – If you feel like saving Green Bay in your suicide pool for later in the year, Atlanta is a nice alternative. Did anyone else see how awful Derek Anderson looked last week, or how awful he has looked for two-plus seasons now? I still can’t fully understand what Ken Whisenhunt was thinking when he decided to go with Anderson AND trade Matt Leinart.
Philadelphia (-6.5) over DETROIT – If Matthew Stafford was playing I could see the Lions pulling the upset here but with Shaun Hill behind center I don’t see this game being very close. Looking forward to seeing what Mike Vick can do when a gameplan is in place both for him and against him.
DENVER (-3.5) over Seattle – Denver has played remarkably better at home under Josh McDaniels and I see that trend continuing this week against a Seahawks team primed for a letdown.
OAKLAND (-3.5) over St. Louis – If Oakland wants to show improvement on the field this year, they better be able to beat the Rams at home by more than 3.5 points.
New England (-3) over NEW YORK JETS – Tom Brady versus Mark Sanchez, hmmm….
WASHINGTON (+3) over Houston – Both teams could be in for a letdown after big home opening wins against hated rivals. Give me the home dog.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville – San Diego looked like it found its groove in the second half last week on offense. Jacksonville lost its two west coast games last year by a combined 61-3. I’m betting that the Chargers put half of that 61 on the board, minimum.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over New York Giants – The Manning Bowl…think a few television sets will be tuning into NBC Sunday night? I still feel as though the Colts offense will be as good, if not better, than it has been in sometime. The offensive line will get healthier as the season goes along and Manning will do what is needed in the meantime. The defense, on the other hand, may not be as good as I originally thought especially with another injury to Bob Sanders. I still feel as though that defense gets enough stops Sunday night for Peyton to do his thing and big brother puts up a big performance against little bro’.
SAN FRANCISCO (+6) over New Orleans – Ahhh, the trap game. After the way the 49ers played last week and the way New Orleans offense lights up scoreboards, shouldn’t this line be higher? Vegas knows what they’re doing. Besides, if San Fran doesn’t come out with a big effort this week, all of their offseason momentum would vanish and we could be staring at one of the worst divisions in modern history. (Ignore this paragraph when the Saints are up 24-0 in the 2nd quarter please!)
(In reality, there hasn’t been much to talk about on a national scale in college football. This week’s slate of games is rather weak and all of the favorites won in last week’s marquee match-ups except Michigan, who was aided by the injury to Notre Dame’s quarterback. The only major storylines have been whether Boise should play for the national title, (yawn!) and Michigan QB Denard Robinson who has the look of Michael Vick 2.0).
Before we take a break from the NFL, however, it’s time to take a look at my picks for week two. Last week I finished a decent 8-6-2, with disappointing losses from the Cowboys and Chargers who I thought both outplayed their opponent for the most part. Week two in the NFL is often the most difficult week of the season as we try to decipher what was real and what was an aberration after one week. Let’s do it…
(home teams in caps)
GREEN BAY (-13) over Buffalo – Green Bay is going to score points, it doesn’t matter who they play. In what I thought was a rather bad game for Aaron Rodgers against a pretty good defense last week, Green Bay still managed 27 points. I expect that number to be higher this week and cannot see Trent Edwards keeping up.
Pittsburgh (+5) over TENNESSEE – The Steelers match-up well with the Titans as the entire Tennessee offense is built on the running game and nobody runs the ball well on the Steelers. Chris Johnson had 57 yards on 15 carries last year, his second lowest output of the season. The Steelers may not win this one, but I expect it to be close.
Kansas City (+2) over CLEVELAND – Kansas City looks a little frisky this year and you have to love their young playmakers. Meanwhile, Seneca Wallace will be starting for Cleveland. Unless Josh Cribbs returns three kicks for scores, I like the Chiefs to get off to their first 2-0 start since 2005.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay – I hope nobody misses this Matt Moore vs. Josh Freeman shootout! Seriously, the Panthers should attempt to win this game by not attempting a single pass. I bet they could do it. Actually, it might be a better strategy than the one that allowed Matt Moore to turn the ball over four times last week.
CINCINNATI (+2.5) over Baltimore – Let’s pretend that last week didn’t happen and we would be looking at a line somewhere in the neighborhood of Cincinnati giving three. Because of one week’s events, you’re telling me this line reversed nearly six points? Not to mention the fact that Baltimore is playing its second consecutive road game on a short week against another physical opponent. Cincinnati should be able to exploit Baltimore’s weak and banged up secondary while their defense should rebound from a disappointing opening week.
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Miami – I struggled with this one as 5.5 seems a bit much with Minnesota’s passing game in the shape that it is. That being said, I expect a great performance from A-Pete and a 7-10 point win for the Vikings at home.
DALLAS (-7) over Chicago – Chicago is looking to avoid a 0-2 start…wait, what? They didn’t count Calvin Johnson’s catch?!? Anyways, Dallas’ pass rush should be all over Jay Cutler this week and you know what means, interceptions galore! If the Cowboys can give Tony Romo any amount of time, I think a big performance at home is in store.
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona – If you feel like saving Green Bay in your suicide pool for later in the year, Atlanta is a nice alternative. Did anyone else see how awful Derek Anderson looked last week, or how awful he has looked for two-plus seasons now? I still can’t fully understand what Ken Whisenhunt was thinking when he decided to go with Anderson AND trade Matt Leinart.
Philadelphia (-6.5) over DETROIT – If Matthew Stafford was playing I could see the Lions pulling the upset here but with Shaun Hill behind center I don’t see this game being very close. Looking forward to seeing what Mike Vick can do when a gameplan is in place both for him and against him.
DENVER (-3.5) over Seattle – Denver has played remarkably better at home under Josh McDaniels and I see that trend continuing this week against a Seahawks team primed for a letdown.
OAKLAND (-3.5) over St. Louis – If Oakland wants to show improvement on the field this year, they better be able to beat the Rams at home by more than 3.5 points.
New England (-3) over NEW YORK JETS – Tom Brady versus Mark Sanchez, hmmm….
WASHINGTON (+3) over Houston – Both teams could be in for a letdown after big home opening wins against hated rivals. Give me the home dog.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville – San Diego looked like it found its groove in the second half last week on offense. Jacksonville lost its two west coast games last year by a combined 61-3. I’m betting that the Chargers put half of that 61 on the board, minimum.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over New York Giants – The Manning Bowl…think a few television sets will be tuning into NBC Sunday night? I still feel as though the Colts offense will be as good, if not better, than it has been in sometime. The offensive line will get healthier as the season goes along and Manning will do what is needed in the meantime. The defense, on the other hand, may not be as good as I originally thought especially with another injury to Bob Sanders. I still feel as though that defense gets enough stops Sunday night for Peyton to do his thing and big brother puts up a big performance against little bro’.
SAN FRANCISCO (+6) over New Orleans – Ahhh, the trap game. After the way the 49ers played last week and the way New Orleans offense lights up scoreboards, shouldn’t this line be higher? Vegas knows what they’re doing. Besides, if San Fran doesn’t come out with a big effort this week, all of their offseason momentum would vanish and we could be staring at one of the worst divisions in modern history. (Ignore this paragraph when the Saints are up 24-0 in the 2nd quarter please!)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Steelers Defense Looks Super Worthy
While the New York Jets defense received all of the praise and attention this offseason, and the Baltimore Ravens defense is now bringing up all kinds of nostalgia talk after their dominating performance Monday night, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers who may very quietly have the best defense in the NFL once again. I mentioned in every conversation that I had this offseason concerning how the Steelers would perform without Ben Roethlisberger that I thought people were severely underestimating this Steelers defense. This is the same defense that just less than 20 months ago was being compared to the greatest defenses of all time. Last year defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau saw the departures of two of his starters in Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden AND saw his two best players miss the majority of the season to injuries. How many offensive or defensive units in the league could sustain injuries to their top two players and still perform at a top 5 level like the Steelers did last year?
Now the Steelers not only have a healthy Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith back but Foote and McFadden have returned, Ziggy Hood looks like another good defensive lineman, and Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley have another year of experience under their belts. To put this in perspective, not only do the Steelers have the same personnel as they did in a historical season just two years ago, they are now deeper and have more youth sprinkled in the mix. The Steelers could play out the balance of the season with Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich at quarterback and still be in the playoff hunt with this defense. Once Big Ben returns, and obviously health-dependent, this team should be shooting for nothing less than a return trip to the Super Bowl. This defense should be simply that good.
On Sunday, the Steelers held Michael Turner to 42 yards on 19 carries, roughly 60 yards less than his average per game since joining the Falcons, and held the Falcons to just nine points despite the Steelers inability to sustain drives on the offensive side of the ball. This is no cream-puff offense either, as the Falcons finished 13th in the NFL last year in points at nearly 23 per game despite missing Turner for nearly half of the season. The only Falcon that hurt the Steelers was WR Roddy White, who the Steelers were happy to give up out patterns and not allow him to make the big play. White may have had 13 catches, but his longest was for just 18 yards. The Steelers also recorded two sacks and Polamalu’s wonderful interception that went for nothing after Jeff Reed missed the game winning kick in the final seconds. You would like to see a little more pressure on the quarterback, but all in all it was a dominating performance by the Steelers defense, something they will need again in Tennessee.
Here are some other observations as we look back at week one's win over Atlanta and ahead to the tough match-up at the Titans this coming Sunday:
* I have heard a lot more complaining than I expected over Dennis Dixon’s performance. I am not sure what fans are expecting out of their back-up quarterback. Hell, Dixon’s performance was better than that of at least 12 starters around the league this past weekend. Dixon finished 18-26 for 236 yards and one interception that halted a potential scoring drive. Dixon was solid but not spectacular and avoided making any costly mistakes in the second half of a close game. No question that Dixon missed a couple of throws to the outside, and I think that was the result of him deliberately throwing balls low to avoid interceptions, but had Leftwich or Batch put up the same numbers in a Steelers’ win I do not think for one second we would be hearing the same complaints. Dixon is not the second coming of Dan Marino, but I thought there were some positives in the way he threw the ball. Now the Steelers need to incorporate the use of Dixon’s legs into the offense to truly take advantage of his skill set.
* One of these days Hines Ward will have to slow down after all these years of physical football but if Sunday is any indication, this season will not be the one.
* I thought the offensive line played reasonably well. Dixon was sacked three times, but for the most part had some time to throw and the blocking on Mendenhall’s game winning run was phenomenal. Two of the sacks occurred back to back as the Steelers reached midfield trying to put together a game winning scoring drive. On the one, I thought it was Dixon who held the ball too long and the other looked like a full out blitz. Despite doing an ok job, the Steelers will need a big performance from this unit if they are going to go on the road and move the ball against the Titans, especially in the absence of left tackle Max Starks.
* I was initially very surprised by Mike Tomlin’s decision to attempt a 55-yard field goal near the end of the first half but after seeing Reed hit the upright I was absolutely fine with his decision. In hindsight of course the move was wrong as it cost the Steelers three points when the Falcons maneuvered their way into field goal position of their own and capitalized, but if your kicker can make the field goal, you have to go after the points in a game where points are scarce. Tomlin has to have faith in his defense to make a stop there if Reed misses, one of the few things they were unable to do on Sunday.
* Looking ahead to this week’s game with Tennessee, the match-up is a good one for the Steelers in terms of having to go on the road to face a quality opponent. The Titans offense is built around running the football, something that the Steelers just do not allow to happen. In last year’s meeting, Chris Johnson was held to 57 yards on 15 carries, his second lowest outing of the year, in a 13-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh will be looking to play a very similar style game by focusing on Johnson, keeping the scoring low, and finding a way in the fourth quarter to win.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
NFL Week 1 Recap
Every week (usually on Monday but I pushed it to Tuesday with the Monday night doubleheader this week) I’ll take a quick look back at each of the NFL games’ main storylines from the week that was. To me, the biggest story around the NFL after week one was not the Calvin Johnson non-catch, as bad as that rule is, it was the absolutely terrible coaching that I saw around the league. The Cowboys-Redskins coaching fiasco was the highlight, or shall I say lowlight, of the pathetic coaching jobs performed this week, but I could name ten instances off the top of my head that made utterly no sense even while they were happening. One move that I did not mind was Mike Tomlin attempting the 55-yard field goal. I see both sides of that argument, and in hindsight it cost the Steelers three points, but if your kicker has the distance I cannot fault the attempt. Here we go...
New Orleans 14 – Minnesota 9
Pretty much the entire country watched this one so there’s not much to elaborate on. A sloppy game by both teams finished appropriately with a missed chip shot field goal costing all Saints’ backers the cover. Brett Favre looked a bit rusty in his debut, but I expect both of these teams to be just fine.
Houston 34 – Indianapolis 24
Bob Sanders injured his elbow in the first quarter of the first game and did not return, what else is new. Sanders has missed more games than he has played during his six year career and boy does the Colts’ run defense suffer without him in there. The Colts will bounce back fine from this loss, but the story here is the Texans and running back Arian Foster. Could this be the year that the Texans finally get over the hump and make the playoffs? I thought Tony Dungy said it best when he said they had to win this game for that to happen. It did, so let’s see where they go from here.
Jacksonville 24 – Denver 17
In a battle of two teams headed toward rough seasons, the Jaguars found a way to get an opening day win. From the limited amount of this game that I watched it is no wonder that Jaguars fans don’t come out to the stadium. When you have David Garrard and Kyle Orton flinging balls to the likes of Brandon Lloyd, Mike Thomas, Jabar Gaffney, Kassim Osgood and Eddie Royal, how could anyone want to miss that?!?
Miami 15 – Buffalo 10
Miami was a team that the sharp bettors hammered this weekend and the Bills obliged by giving the Dolphins’ backers a gift-wrapped cover by taking an intentional safety with 1:32 left in the game trailing by three points. In related news, Chan Gailey made his NFL head-coaching return after 11 years. The Dolphins have an excellent offensive line and the two running backs, but if they are going to compete for a playoff spot, Chad Henne and the wide receivers are going to have to make some plays in the passing game.
Chicago 19 – Detroit 14
The catch that wasn’t. Seriously, why in the world does the NFL continue to annoy their fans? This is especially true with a looming lockout in 2011. Fans do not want 18 regular season games. Fans do not want to see their teams lose on some asinine “letter of the law” rule interpretation. It is time for the NFL to drop its holier than thou attitude and bring a little common sense to the game. I didn’t see the catch when it happened but got a text from a buddy who lives in Chicago and is a closet Lions fan. I immediately thought of the Troy Polamalu play in the 2005 playoffs against the Colts. Can you imagine a fanbase’s outrage if and when their team is denied a playoff or Super Bowl berth because of some rule that makes no sense? Come on Roger Goodell, quit worrying about what your players are doing on the weekend and put some common sense into your rulebook.
The loss was doubling crushing for the Lions who lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford for 4-8 weeks with a separated throwing shoulder. It’s too bad as this Detroit organization is beginning to show signs of life after the disastrous Matt Millen era. On the other side of the ball Julius Peppers made an immediate impact on the Bears as he was the one who sacked and injured Stafford. I still think they gave him too much money, but so far so good. Matt Forte also looks like a tremendous fit in the Marshall Faulk role in Mike Martz’ offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the background. Forte could be a fantasy stud this year if the Bears can only learn how to punch it in from the one.
Tennessee 38 – Oakland 13
Vince Young looked tremendous throwing the ball on Sunday. If he can continue throwing the ball that way with Chris Johnson in the backfield and the threat of his legs, the league better watch out. Many expected the Raiders to be improved this year, including myself, but let’s not overreact after one week in a tough road game, across the country.
New England 38 – Cincinnati 24
I thought the Patriots could be flying under the radar this year. Brady is healthy, Welker appears healthy, Moss is motivated for more money. They embarrassed what is supposed to be a very good Cincinnati secondary. The good news for Bengals fans is that Carson Palmer looked much better in catch-up mode than he had all of last year, throwing for 345 yards.
New York 31 – Carolina 18
Carolina is finding out the hard way in this league that it is very hard to win without a good quarterback no matter how good your running backs and offensive line are. Matt Moore threw three red zone interceptions and lost a fumble, a recipe for disaster against a good team on the road. For the Giants, we may have just seen the superstar coming out party for WR Hakeem Nicks.
Tampa Bay 17 – Cleveland 14
If it was not the first game of the year I would skip saying anything about these two very bad teams. On second thought, this column is long enough, let’s keep going.
Arizona 17 – St. Louis 13
Not such a great start for the post-Warner Cardinals. The play of the game was made by Steve Breaston whose hustle and strip tackle of a Rams defensive lineman, who was about to score on a fumble return, saved the game. Also says something about the quality of play in this one when the play of the game is made by a wide receiver tackling a defensive tackle. Sam Bradford is oozing with talent, but he is going to need to learn how to manage the two-minute drill much better than he did Sunday.
Green Bay 27 – Philadelphia 20
First, I must say that it was fun watching Michael Vick up to his old tricks. Andy Reid was also up to his old tricks foolishly calling time outs with five minutes remaining. I am officially offering my services to Reid as a clock consultant. Does the guy have any clue how to manage time?!? It was not the MVP type performance we were expecting from Aaron Rodgers for the Pack, but it was enough to get a win on the road against a solid defense. I expect this Packer passing game to start rolling here in the near-term, especially with the reported loss of Ryan Grant for the season.
Seattle 31 – San Francisco 6
In what to me was the most shocking result of the first week, the Pete Carroll era in Seattle got started with a bang. The Seahawks’ victory itself was not shocking, but the manner in which they physically dominated the 49ers was. San Fran was held to just 49 yards on the ground and was stuffed short on a key 4th and 1 on the Seahawks’ six-yard line in the first quarter. I wonder if Singletary’s boys were reading a little too much of their press clippings coming into week 1.
Washington 13 – Dallas 7
I really don’t even know where to start on this one. Dallas had 380 yards - Washington 250, Dallas had 24 first downs - Washington 17, Dallas 4.7 yards per rush – Washington 3.7. Dallas, however, had 12 penalties for 91 yards to Washington’s 5 for 42 and Dallas’ one turnover (in quite possibly the dumbest play that will occur this season from the coaches to Romo to Choice) to Washington’s none were the difference between the Cowboys winning by two TDs and losing by three, I mean six, after Shanahan kicked what at the time was a very dumb field goal. The worst part is that I thought Mike Shanahan coached an awful game and yet he looked like Vince Lombardi compared to what Wade Phillips and his staff accomplished. I could go on and on, but let’s just say that Bill Cowher’s phone number is moving up the speed dial list on Jerry Jones’ cell phone.
Baltimore 10 – New York 9
I am sure most of you reading this watched Monday’s game so we won’t go into detail. I will say that I am not quite ready to say ‘I told you so’ on Mark Sanchez, but it’s getting pretty darn close. The Jets also lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins for the season again with a torn ACL to the same knee as last year. This is a big blow to what looks like will be a dominating Jets’ defense once again, and a shame for Jenkins who seemed like a pretty likable guy on “Hard Knocks”.
Kansas City 21 – San Diego 14
In the game that probably did the most damage in your local suicide pools, Kansas City used another early season sloppy performance from the Chargers to squeeze out the only win in week one among the four AFC West teams. Norv Turner punted once in the first half and twice in the second half inside the Chiefs’ 42 while the Chiefs’ punted from the Chargers’ 31 yard line! Are you kidding me! All three of the Chargers punts went in the end zone for a touch back while the Chiefs’ went ten yards, worse than a touch back. This is definitely my number one pet peeve among NFL coaches. (Wade Phillips also punted twice inside the 40 in a game his team was struggling to score.) Someone needs to show NFL coaches the mathematical scoring odds of punting and not punting in those situations or more importantly, someone needs to tell NFL coaches to grow some balls. I also didn’t understand the Chargers’ laissez faire attitude on offense in the second half. They were throwing the ball well and moving it up and down the field, going to a no huddle would have kept momentum going and kept the Chiefs’ defense on their heels. The Chargers’ lack of urgency was what I thought most cost them this game.
That’ll do it for a look back on week one. Overall I thought it was a badly played weekend of football and even a worse-coached one. I expect to see a vastly improved performance from a number of teams this week. Oh, you thought I forgot…I’ll be back on Wednesday with a combined look back on the Steelers overtime win and a look ahead to a very tough road trip to Tennessee.
New Orleans 14 – Minnesota 9
Pretty much the entire country watched this one so there’s not much to elaborate on. A sloppy game by both teams finished appropriately with a missed chip shot field goal costing all Saints’ backers the cover. Brett Favre looked a bit rusty in his debut, but I expect both of these teams to be just fine.
Houston 34 – Indianapolis 24
Bob Sanders injured his elbow in the first quarter of the first game and did not return, what else is new. Sanders has missed more games than he has played during his six year career and boy does the Colts’ run defense suffer without him in there. The Colts will bounce back fine from this loss, but the story here is the Texans and running back Arian Foster. Could this be the year that the Texans finally get over the hump and make the playoffs? I thought Tony Dungy said it best when he said they had to win this game for that to happen. It did, so let’s see where they go from here.
Jacksonville 24 – Denver 17
In a battle of two teams headed toward rough seasons, the Jaguars found a way to get an opening day win. From the limited amount of this game that I watched it is no wonder that Jaguars fans don’t come out to the stadium. When you have David Garrard and Kyle Orton flinging balls to the likes of Brandon Lloyd, Mike Thomas, Jabar Gaffney, Kassim Osgood and Eddie Royal, how could anyone want to miss that?!?
Miami 15 – Buffalo 10
Miami was a team that the sharp bettors hammered this weekend and the Bills obliged by giving the Dolphins’ backers a gift-wrapped cover by taking an intentional safety with 1:32 left in the game trailing by three points. In related news, Chan Gailey made his NFL head-coaching return after 11 years. The Dolphins have an excellent offensive line and the two running backs, but if they are going to compete for a playoff spot, Chad Henne and the wide receivers are going to have to make some plays in the passing game.
Chicago 19 – Detroit 14
The catch that wasn’t. Seriously, why in the world does the NFL continue to annoy their fans? This is especially true with a looming lockout in 2011. Fans do not want 18 regular season games. Fans do not want to see their teams lose on some asinine “letter of the law” rule interpretation. It is time for the NFL to drop its holier than thou attitude and bring a little common sense to the game. I didn’t see the catch when it happened but got a text from a buddy who lives in Chicago and is a closet Lions fan. I immediately thought of the Troy Polamalu play in the 2005 playoffs against the Colts. Can you imagine a fanbase’s outrage if and when their team is denied a playoff or Super Bowl berth because of some rule that makes no sense? Come on Roger Goodell, quit worrying about what your players are doing on the weekend and put some common sense into your rulebook.
The loss was doubling crushing for the Lions who lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford for 4-8 weeks with a separated throwing shoulder. It’s too bad as this Detroit organization is beginning to show signs of life after the disastrous Matt Millen era. On the other side of the ball Julius Peppers made an immediate impact on the Bears as he was the one who sacked and injured Stafford. I still think they gave him too much money, but so far so good. Matt Forte also looks like a tremendous fit in the Marshall Faulk role in Mike Martz’ offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the background. Forte could be a fantasy stud this year if the Bears can only learn how to punch it in from the one.
Tennessee 38 – Oakland 13
Vince Young looked tremendous throwing the ball on Sunday. If he can continue throwing the ball that way with Chris Johnson in the backfield and the threat of his legs, the league better watch out. Many expected the Raiders to be improved this year, including myself, but let’s not overreact after one week in a tough road game, across the country.
New England 38 – Cincinnati 24
I thought the Patriots could be flying under the radar this year. Brady is healthy, Welker appears healthy, Moss is motivated for more money. They embarrassed what is supposed to be a very good Cincinnati secondary. The good news for Bengals fans is that Carson Palmer looked much better in catch-up mode than he had all of last year, throwing for 345 yards.
New York 31 – Carolina 18
Carolina is finding out the hard way in this league that it is very hard to win without a good quarterback no matter how good your running backs and offensive line are. Matt Moore threw three red zone interceptions and lost a fumble, a recipe for disaster against a good team on the road. For the Giants, we may have just seen the superstar coming out party for WR Hakeem Nicks.
Tampa Bay 17 – Cleveland 14
If it was not the first game of the year I would skip saying anything about these two very bad teams. On second thought, this column is long enough, let’s keep going.
Arizona 17 – St. Louis 13
Not such a great start for the post-Warner Cardinals. The play of the game was made by Steve Breaston whose hustle and strip tackle of a Rams defensive lineman, who was about to score on a fumble return, saved the game. Also says something about the quality of play in this one when the play of the game is made by a wide receiver tackling a defensive tackle. Sam Bradford is oozing with talent, but he is going to need to learn how to manage the two-minute drill much better than he did Sunday.
Green Bay 27 – Philadelphia 20
First, I must say that it was fun watching Michael Vick up to his old tricks. Andy Reid was also up to his old tricks foolishly calling time outs with five minutes remaining. I am officially offering my services to Reid as a clock consultant. Does the guy have any clue how to manage time?!? It was not the MVP type performance we were expecting from Aaron Rodgers for the Pack, but it was enough to get a win on the road against a solid defense. I expect this Packer passing game to start rolling here in the near-term, especially with the reported loss of Ryan Grant for the season.
Seattle 31 – San Francisco 6
In what to me was the most shocking result of the first week, the Pete Carroll era in Seattle got started with a bang. The Seahawks’ victory itself was not shocking, but the manner in which they physically dominated the 49ers was. San Fran was held to just 49 yards on the ground and was stuffed short on a key 4th and 1 on the Seahawks’ six-yard line in the first quarter. I wonder if Singletary’s boys were reading a little too much of their press clippings coming into week 1.
Washington 13 – Dallas 7
I really don’t even know where to start on this one. Dallas had 380 yards - Washington 250, Dallas had 24 first downs - Washington 17, Dallas 4.7 yards per rush – Washington 3.7. Dallas, however, had 12 penalties for 91 yards to Washington’s 5 for 42 and Dallas’ one turnover (in quite possibly the dumbest play that will occur this season from the coaches to Romo to Choice) to Washington’s none were the difference between the Cowboys winning by two TDs and losing by three, I mean six, after Shanahan kicked what at the time was a very dumb field goal. The worst part is that I thought Mike Shanahan coached an awful game and yet he looked like Vince Lombardi compared to what Wade Phillips and his staff accomplished. I could go on and on, but let’s just say that Bill Cowher’s phone number is moving up the speed dial list on Jerry Jones’ cell phone.
Baltimore 10 – New York 9
I am sure most of you reading this watched Monday’s game so we won’t go into detail. I will say that I am not quite ready to say ‘I told you so’ on Mark Sanchez, but it’s getting pretty darn close. The Jets also lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins for the season again with a torn ACL to the same knee as last year. This is a big blow to what looks like will be a dominating Jets’ defense once again, and a shame for Jenkins who seemed like a pretty likable guy on “Hard Knocks”.
Kansas City 21 – San Diego 14
In the game that probably did the most damage in your local suicide pools, Kansas City used another early season sloppy performance from the Chargers to squeeze out the only win in week one among the four AFC West teams. Norv Turner punted once in the first half and twice in the second half inside the Chiefs’ 42 while the Chiefs’ punted from the Chargers’ 31 yard line! Are you kidding me! All three of the Chargers punts went in the end zone for a touch back while the Chiefs’ went ten yards, worse than a touch back. This is definitely my number one pet peeve among NFL coaches. (Wade Phillips also punted twice inside the 40 in a game his team was struggling to score.) Someone needs to show NFL coaches the mathematical scoring odds of punting and not punting in those situations or more importantly, someone needs to tell NFL coaches to grow some balls. I also didn’t understand the Chargers’ laissez faire attitude on offense in the second half. They were throwing the ball well and moving it up and down the field, going to a no huddle would have kept momentum going and kept the Chiefs’ defense on their heels. The Chargers’ lack of urgency was what I thought most cost them this game.
That’ll do it for a look back on week one. Overall I thought it was a badly played weekend of football and even a worse-coached one. I expect to see a vastly improved performance from a number of teams this week. Oh, you thought I forgot…I’ll be back on Wednesday with a combined look back on the Steelers overtime win and a look ahead to a very tough road trip to Tennessee.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Week 1 NFL Picks
No need to beat it around the bush with some boring introductory paragraph that is usually mandatory when writing these pick columns. You have seen my season outlook and my preseason power rankings, let’s just dive right into my NFL Week 1 Picks (I guess I already made you read an introductory paragraph at this point!).
(home teams in caps)
NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Minnesota – Fired up home crowd + banged up Brett Favre – Sidney Rice = New Orleans win and cover.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Carolina – I think the Giants are in for a bounce back season. If they’re going to do that, they will need to get off to a fast start at home. That and Matt Moore on the road scares the heck out of me.
Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA – Rodgers over Kolb, thank you very much.
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Atlanta – Give me the home dog with the better defense…or just call me a homer.
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO – Miami quite possibly has the best offensive line in the NFL. Buffalo doesn’t have the best anything. Their only advantage over Miami is cold weather. Unfortunately for Buffalo, weather won’t be a factor in September.
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO - The Lions should be able to score enough points and get enough pressure on Cutler to make this game close in the fourth quarter. Even if Detroit is down big early, a backdoor cover could easily come into play.
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati – Give me the Patriots at home with a little something to prove this year.
Indianapolis (-2) over HOUSTON – The hardest line of the week to figure out. Are you really going to go against Manning giving less than a field goal? I didn’t think so.
TENNESSEE (-6) over Oakland – For those of you in suicide polls, here is my top pick for week 1 to win. Raiders are improved but to expect them to go on the road, across the country, against one of the league's best o-lines is asking a ton. VY is only 26-13 as a starter, the Titans are only a year removed from 13-3 and only finished last year on an 8-2 run.
Denver (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – Tough game to pick here as Denver was terrible on the road last year. Maurice Jones-Drew’s health could be the deciding factor. Since we don’t know for sure how MJD knee is feeling, give me Denver.
Cleveland (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Cleveland looks like a franchise that is going in the right direction while Tampa seems stuck in neutral. Give me the veteran QB in week 1, even if his name happens to be Jake Delhomme.
San Francisco (-3) over SEATTLE – Pete Carroll has overhauled the Seahawks’ roster. That could or couldn’t be a good thing. Either way, the 49ers are still the more talented team.
ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona – I will call his the pro-Sam Bradford pick, though I could just as easily call it the anti-Derek Anderson pick.
Dallas (-3.5) over Washington – Washington will be a dangerous team as the season moves along but I think it will take a few weeks before Shanahan and McNabb really settle in. Dallas showed absolutely nothing during the preseason, I expect them to come out like gangbusters.
Baltimore (+3) over NEW YORK JETS – We’ll call this the bandwagon game as no two teams have more casual fans jumping on board than the Jets and Ravens. I simply don’t trust the Sanchize at this point. Call me wacco for Flacco, for one week anyways.
San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY – San Diego is perennially a slow starter and start on the road against a division rival. Pick the Chiefs, right? Nah, I can’t get the thought of Rivers vs. Cassel out of my mind.
(home teams in caps)
NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Minnesota – Fired up home crowd + banged up Brett Favre – Sidney Rice = New Orleans win and cover.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Carolina – I think the Giants are in for a bounce back season. If they’re going to do that, they will need to get off to a fast start at home. That and Matt Moore on the road scares the heck out of me.
Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA – Rodgers over Kolb, thank you very much.
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Atlanta – Give me the home dog with the better defense…or just call me a homer.
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO – Miami quite possibly has the best offensive line in the NFL. Buffalo doesn’t have the best anything. Their only advantage over Miami is cold weather. Unfortunately for Buffalo, weather won’t be a factor in September.
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO - The Lions should be able to score enough points and get enough pressure on Cutler to make this game close in the fourth quarter. Even if Detroit is down big early, a backdoor cover could easily come into play.
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati – Give me the Patriots at home with a little something to prove this year.
Indianapolis (-2) over HOUSTON – The hardest line of the week to figure out. Are you really going to go against Manning giving less than a field goal? I didn’t think so.
TENNESSEE (-6) over Oakland – For those of you in suicide polls, here is my top pick for week 1 to win. Raiders are improved but to expect them to go on the road, across the country, against one of the league's best o-lines is asking a ton. VY is only 26-13 as a starter, the Titans are only a year removed from 13-3 and only finished last year on an 8-2 run.
Denver (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – Tough game to pick here as Denver was terrible on the road last year. Maurice Jones-Drew’s health could be the deciding factor. Since we don’t know for sure how MJD knee is feeling, give me Denver.
Cleveland (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Cleveland looks like a franchise that is going in the right direction while Tampa seems stuck in neutral. Give me the veteran QB in week 1, even if his name happens to be Jake Delhomme.
San Francisco (-3) over SEATTLE – Pete Carroll has overhauled the Seahawks’ roster. That could or couldn’t be a good thing. Either way, the 49ers are still the more talented team.
ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona – I will call his the pro-Sam Bradford pick, though I could just as easily call it the anti-Derek Anderson pick.
Dallas (-3.5) over Washington – Washington will be a dangerous team as the season moves along but I think it will take a few weeks before Shanahan and McNabb really settle in. Dallas showed absolutely nothing during the preseason, I expect them to come out like gangbusters.
Baltimore (+3) over NEW YORK JETS – We’ll call this the bandwagon game as no two teams have more casual fans jumping on board than the Jets and Ravens. I simply don’t trust the Sanchize at this point. Call me wacco for Flacco, for one week anyways.
San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY – San Diego is perennially a slow starter and start on the road against a division rival. Pick the Chiefs, right? Nah, I can’t get the thought of Rivers vs. Cassel out of my mind.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
NFL Season Predictions
The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. Last week’s power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2010 NFL season playing out.
AFC East
New England Patriots – 11-5
New York Jets – 9-7
Miami Dolphins – 8-8
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
The return of Darrelle Revis makes the top of this division a whole lot more interesting but I still favor Tom Brady and company. The Jets defense should be enough to earn them a playoff spot but expect Miami to be nipping at their heels throughout the season.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers – 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals – 9-7
Cleveland Browns – 4-12
Baltimore looks on paper like the team to beat in this division, especially if the secondary can get healthy as the season goes on. I think Pittsburgh survives Roethlisberger’s absence and becomes legitimate Super Bowl contenders with a healthy defense. Cincinnati’s season should be interesting, to say the least, but I just don’t see the same Carson Palmer as a few years back. Cleveland is, well Cleveland is Cleveland.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts – 13-3
Tennessee Titans – 8-8
Houston Texans – 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
Peyton Manning hasn’t had this many weapons on offense since Edge and Marvin Harrison were in their primes. Expect Indy to make it eight straight seasons with 12 or more wins. Tennessee and Houston will both be battling for one of the coveted wild card spots but ultimately I see both falling just short. In Jacksonville, I suspect this could be the final season for head coach Jack Del Rio.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Denver Broncos – 7-9
Oakland Raiders – 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs – 6-10
The Chargers are once again the class of the AFC West despite the loss of LaDainian Tomlinson and the absence of Vincent Jackson. The Broncos could be in some serious trouble after trading away Brandon Marshall and losing Elvis Dumervil to an injury. I do expect marked improvement from the Chiefs and Raiders, but not enough just yet to truly compete for a playoff berth.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys – 11-5
New York Giants – 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles – 8-8
Washington Redskins – 7-9
This division should be the most competitive top to bottom in the National Football League. I expect two teams from the “NFC Beast” to find their way into the playoffs, and those two teams could very well be whichever ones can stay the healthiest during the season.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings – 11-5
Green Bay Packers – 10-6
Chicago Bears – 6-10
Detroit Lions – 4-12
The NFC North should be a great race between Favre and his old team in Green Bay. Many are giving the Packers the preseason edge especially after the hip surgery underwent by Sidney Rice. I look at these rosters and still see a better defense, better o-line and better running back in Minnesota no matter how much I love Aaron Rodgers.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 10-6
Atlanta Falcons – 9-7
Carolina Panthers – 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4-12
I do not think Drew Brees and the Saints will be as good as they were a year ago. Between the Super Bowl hangover, their knack for causing turnovers a tough thing to duplicate and their relatively healthy season last year, I just see a bit of a drop off. I do expect their explosive offense to be enough to hold off the Atlanta Falcons, however, who are looking for bounce back years from Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. If Carolina can get a bounce or two, they could very well find themselves back in the playoff hunt as well with their dynamic backfield duo. The Bucs - not so much.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers – 10-6
Arizona Cardinals – 7-9
Seattle Seahawks – 6-10
St. Louis Rams – 5-11
The 49ers should win the worst division in football going away this year with just too many questions facing each of the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams. I do really like rookie QB Sam Bradford, who gives St. Louis’ fans some hope once again.
Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Offensive Player of the Year – Adrian Peterson
Defensive Player of the Year – Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Sam Bradford
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Earl Thomas
Coach of the Year – Mike Singletary
Playoffs
New England over New York, Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York over San Francisco, Green Bay over New Orleans
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh, New England over Baltimore
Dallas over New York, Minnesota over Green Bay
Indianapolis over New England, Dallas over Minnesota
Super Bowl XLV
Indianapolis over Dallas
AFC East
New England Patriots – 11-5
New York Jets – 9-7
Miami Dolphins – 8-8
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
The return of Darrelle Revis makes the top of this division a whole lot more interesting but I still favor Tom Brady and company. The Jets defense should be enough to earn them a playoff spot but expect Miami to be nipping at their heels throughout the season.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers – 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals – 9-7
Cleveland Browns – 4-12
Baltimore looks on paper like the team to beat in this division, especially if the secondary can get healthy as the season goes on. I think Pittsburgh survives Roethlisberger’s absence and becomes legitimate Super Bowl contenders with a healthy defense. Cincinnati’s season should be interesting, to say the least, but I just don’t see the same Carson Palmer as a few years back. Cleveland is, well Cleveland is Cleveland.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts – 13-3
Tennessee Titans – 8-8
Houston Texans – 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
Peyton Manning hasn’t had this many weapons on offense since Edge and Marvin Harrison were in their primes. Expect Indy to make it eight straight seasons with 12 or more wins. Tennessee and Houston will both be battling for one of the coveted wild card spots but ultimately I see both falling just short. In Jacksonville, I suspect this could be the final season for head coach Jack Del Rio.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Denver Broncos – 7-9
Oakland Raiders – 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs – 6-10
The Chargers are once again the class of the AFC West despite the loss of LaDainian Tomlinson and the absence of Vincent Jackson. The Broncos could be in some serious trouble after trading away Brandon Marshall and losing Elvis Dumervil to an injury. I do expect marked improvement from the Chiefs and Raiders, but not enough just yet to truly compete for a playoff berth.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys – 11-5
New York Giants – 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles – 8-8
Washington Redskins – 7-9
This division should be the most competitive top to bottom in the National Football League. I expect two teams from the “NFC Beast” to find their way into the playoffs, and those two teams could very well be whichever ones can stay the healthiest during the season.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings – 11-5
Green Bay Packers – 10-6
Chicago Bears – 6-10
Detroit Lions – 4-12
The NFC North should be a great race between Favre and his old team in Green Bay. Many are giving the Packers the preseason edge especially after the hip surgery underwent by Sidney Rice. I look at these rosters and still see a better defense, better o-line and better running back in Minnesota no matter how much I love Aaron Rodgers.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 10-6
Atlanta Falcons – 9-7
Carolina Panthers – 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4-12
I do not think Drew Brees and the Saints will be as good as they were a year ago. Between the Super Bowl hangover, their knack for causing turnovers a tough thing to duplicate and their relatively healthy season last year, I just see a bit of a drop off. I do expect their explosive offense to be enough to hold off the Atlanta Falcons, however, who are looking for bounce back years from Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. If Carolina can get a bounce or two, they could very well find themselves back in the playoff hunt as well with their dynamic backfield duo. The Bucs - not so much.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers – 10-6
Arizona Cardinals – 7-9
Seattle Seahawks – 6-10
St. Louis Rams – 5-11
The 49ers should win the worst division in football going away this year with just too many questions facing each of the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams. I do really like rookie QB Sam Bradford, who gives St. Louis’ fans some hope once again.
Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Offensive Player of the Year – Adrian Peterson
Defensive Player of the Year – Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Sam Bradford
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Earl Thomas
Coach of the Year – Mike Singletary
Playoffs
New England over New York, Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York over San Francisco, Green Bay over New Orleans
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh, New England over Baltimore
Dallas over New York, Minnesota over Green Bay
Indianapolis over New England, Dallas over Minnesota
Super Bowl XLV
Indianapolis over Dallas
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Pitt Preview and Season Outlook
Pitt opens their season tonight at Utah amongst a good bit of optimism and high expectations surrounding the team. Everyone knows about the star power the Panthers possess with Dion Lewis, Jon Baldwin, Greg Romeus, Jabaal Sheard and even Jason Pinkston at left tackle, but as a friend and non-Pitt fan said to me (and I am paraphrasing), “knowing nothing else what would you say about a team traveling cross-country in its first game with a new quarterback, a new middle-linebacker, three new starters on the interior offensive line, and two new starters on the defensive line and at corner playing a team that hasn’t lost at home since 2007?” Well, glad you asked, seems like a perfect way to preview the Panthers opener tonight and season in general. Let’s take a look at Pitt’s potential weaknesses starting with the least concerning moving towards the most concerning.
Middle-Linebacker – Dan Mason, from Penn Hills High School, takes over at MLB as a true sophomore and just oozes with talent. Yes, Mason may make a mistake with some over-aggressiveness typical of a young player, but he will more than make up for it with his play-making ability. Dave Wannstedt has been raving about this kid since the day he stepped on campus and we are about to find out why. Mason could turn out to be the best in a long line of recent Pitt MLBs that include NFL players H.B. Blades, Gerald Hayes and Scott McKillop.
Defensive Tackle – Myles Caragein and Chas Alecxih are the starters at DT and Caragein brings with him plenty of experience as he was the third man in the defensive tackle rotation last season and was very solid during his time on the field. True freshman Aaron Donald, also of Penn Hills, Tyler Tkach and Tyrone Ezell are all expected to contribute at some point during the season as part of the d-line rotation. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the d-tackles as Wannstedt and his staff have proven their ability to recruit and develop defensive lineman time and again. Besides, with the attention that the two defensive ends will garner, solid play is all that is needed from the tackle position.
Quarterback – Here is where some apprehension begins. Tino Sunseri takes over from Bill Stull who surprisingly put together a pretty fantastic senior campaign. The reason, however, that Stull was able to put together that season is the same reason I would not be too concerned with Sunseri: Pitt will not ask him to do more than he is capable of. Sunseri will be asked to handoff, use play-action, throw deep and in general, give his talented receivers a chance to make plays without turning the ball over. Knowing Sunseri’s background, I see no reason he cannot accomplish this. Anything more that he can give would be a bonus. Even if Sunseri were to go down, the Panthers will have veteran back-up Pat Bostick to turn to who brings many of the same qualities.
Cornerback – Now is where Pitt fans can genuinely be concerned. The Panthers will start senior Ricky Gary and junior Antwuan Reed at corner with the third corner spot ultimately going to true freshmen K’waun Williams, an unheralded 3-star recruit out of New Jersey. This development must have been a disappointment to the Pitt coaching staff who were probably counting on the development of talented juniors Buddy Jackson (Jackson is listed at the 3rd corner spot for now, but all indications are that Wiliams will assume this role) and Saheed Imoru. Yes, unheralded three star corner recruits have panned out in the past (anyone ever hear of Darrelle Revis?), but of the three corners expected to see most of the action, only Gary has extensive experience. Wannstedt’s defensive philosophy of dropping seven in coverage and applying pressure on the quarterback with his front four, plus Pitt's experience at the safety position, could allow the Panthers to somewhat hide this weakness on defense. One positive note is that the only team on the schedule that really appears able to exploit the Panthers' CBs is Miami, with their NFL-caliber WRs and Jacory Harris at QB. A herculean effort from Romeus and Sheard will be needed for that one.
Interior Offensive Line – The area that most concerns me for the Panthers is the interior offensive line that will have three new starters and practically no depth what-so-ever. The key to everything the Panthers want to do on an offense focused on the running game begins and ends up front. Left guard Chris Jacobson is talented, has some experience and will be fine but there are certainly questions about center Alex Karabin, a former walk-on, and right guard Greg Gaskins. The good news is that both players are veterans and that the Panthers should be able to give them plenty of help in the form of double-teams, traps and the like because of their talented tackles and fullback, Henry Hynoski. The bad news is that the Panthers line will be tested right from the start. The Utah defensive line is talented, experienced and is expected to anchor what is otherwise an inexperienced defense. If this unit is to become successful at all, they absolutely must stay healthy.
Pitt’s opening game in Utah tonight is interesting to me for a number of reasons. A win would put added emphasis on the Miami game in a few weeks and could very well send Pitt onto some bigger aspirations on the national stage. A loss would refocus the Panthers season back to a Big East championship, but at the same time would once again put doubt in people’s minds about the ability of this program to make the next big step.
I like the Panthers offensive line to hold up just enough for their skill guys to make some big plays against an inexperienced Utah back seven and for Pitt’s defensive ends to make life a bit miserable for Utah’s young quarterback Jordan Wynn. Pitt wins 27-20, sending the Panthers on their way to a 4-1 non-conference record followed by a 6-1 Big East championship season, landing the Panthers in a BCS Bowl Game for the first time since 2005, with a record of 10-2.
Middle-Linebacker – Dan Mason, from Penn Hills High School, takes over at MLB as a true sophomore and just oozes with talent. Yes, Mason may make a mistake with some over-aggressiveness typical of a young player, but he will more than make up for it with his play-making ability. Dave Wannstedt has been raving about this kid since the day he stepped on campus and we are about to find out why. Mason could turn out to be the best in a long line of recent Pitt MLBs that include NFL players H.B. Blades, Gerald Hayes and Scott McKillop.
Defensive Tackle – Myles Caragein and Chas Alecxih are the starters at DT and Caragein brings with him plenty of experience as he was the third man in the defensive tackle rotation last season and was very solid during his time on the field. True freshman Aaron Donald, also of Penn Hills, Tyler Tkach and Tyrone Ezell are all expected to contribute at some point during the season as part of the d-line rotation. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the d-tackles as Wannstedt and his staff have proven their ability to recruit and develop defensive lineman time and again. Besides, with the attention that the two defensive ends will garner, solid play is all that is needed from the tackle position.
Quarterback – Here is where some apprehension begins. Tino Sunseri takes over from Bill Stull who surprisingly put together a pretty fantastic senior campaign. The reason, however, that Stull was able to put together that season is the same reason I would not be too concerned with Sunseri: Pitt will not ask him to do more than he is capable of. Sunseri will be asked to handoff, use play-action, throw deep and in general, give his talented receivers a chance to make plays without turning the ball over. Knowing Sunseri’s background, I see no reason he cannot accomplish this. Anything more that he can give would be a bonus. Even if Sunseri were to go down, the Panthers will have veteran back-up Pat Bostick to turn to who brings many of the same qualities.
Cornerback – Now is where Pitt fans can genuinely be concerned. The Panthers will start senior Ricky Gary and junior Antwuan Reed at corner with the third corner spot ultimately going to true freshmen K’waun Williams, an unheralded 3-star recruit out of New Jersey. This development must have been a disappointment to the Pitt coaching staff who were probably counting on the development of talented juniors Buddy Jackson (Jackson is listed at the 3rd corner spot for now, but all indications are that Wiliams will assume this role) and Saheed Imoru. Yes, unheralded three star corner recruits have panned out in the past (anyone ever hear of Darrelle Revis?), but of the three corners expected to see most of the action, only Gary has extensive experience. Wannstedt’s defensive philosophy of dropping seven in coverage and applying pressure on the quarterback with his front four, plus Pitt's experience at the safety position, could allow the Panthers to somewhat hide this weakness on defense. One positive note is that the only team on the schedule that really appears able to exploit the Panthers' CBs is Miami, with their NFL-caliber WRs and Jacory Harris at QB. A herculean effort from Romeus and Sheard will be needed for that one.
Interior Offensive Line – The area that most concerns me for the Panthers is the interior offensive line that will have three new starters and practically no depth what-so-ever. The key to everything the Panthers want to do on an offense focused on the running game begins and ends up front. Left guard Chris Jacobson is talented, has some experience and will be fine but there are certainly questions about center Alex Karabin, a former walk-on, and right guard Greg Gaskins. The good news is that both players are veterans and that the Panthers should be able to give them plenty of help in the form of double-teams, traps and the like because of their talented tackles and fullback, Henry Hynoski. The bad news is that the Panthers line will be tested right from the start. The Utah defensive line is talented, experienced and is expected to anchor what is otherwise an inexperienced defense. If this unit is to become successful at all, they absolutely must stay healthy.
Pitt’s opening game in Utah tonight is interesting to me for a number of reasons. A win would put added emphasis on the Miami game in a few weeks and could very well send Pitt onto some bigger aspirations on the national stage. A loss would refocus the Panthers season back to a Big East championship, but at the same time would once again put doubt in people’s minds about the ability of this program to make the next big step.
I like the Panthers offensive line to hold up just enough for their skill guys to make some big plays against an inexperienced Utah back seven and for Pitt’s defensive ends to make life a bit miserable for Utah’s young quarterback Jordan Wynn. Pitt wins 27-20, sending the Panthers on their way to a 4-1 non-conference record followed by a 6-1 Big East championship season, landing the Panthers in a BCS Bowl Game for the first time since 2005, with a record of 10-2.
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