Week 2 NFL Picks

I have focused my writing pretty much entirely on the NFL the past couple of weeks as the excitement for the new season has got the best of me. That doesn’t mean I haven’t been playing close attention to the rest of the sports world. Next week it will be time to catch up on some of my year-end baseball thoughts and devote some time to the college gridiron leading up to Pitt’s big show down on Thursday night with Miami.

(In reality, there hasn’t been much to talk about on a national scale in college football. This week’s slate of games is rather weak and all of the favorites won in last week’s marquee match-ups except Michigan, who was aided by the injury to Notre Dame’s quarterback. The only major storylines have been whether Boise should play for the national title, (yawn!) and Michigan QB Denard Robinson who has the look of Michael Vick 2.0).

Before we take a break from the NFL, however, it’s time to take a look at my picks for week two. Last week I finished a decent 8-6-2, with disappointing losses from the Cowboys and Chargers who I thought both outplayed their opponent for the most part. Week two in the NFL is often the most difficult week of the season as we try to decipher what was real and what was an aberration after one week. Let’s do it…

(home teams in caps)

GREEN BAY (-13) over Buffalo – Green Bay is going to score points, it doesn’t matter who they play. In what I thought was a rather bad game for Aaron Rodgers against a pretty good defense last week, Green Bay still managed 27 points. I expect that number to be higher this week and cannot see Trent Edwards keeping up.

Pittsburgh (+5) over TENNESSEE – The Steelers match-up well with the Titans as the entire Tennessee offense is built on the running game and nobody runs the ball well on the Steelers. Chris Johnson had 57 yards on 15 carries last year, his second lowest output of the season. The Steelers may not win this one, but I expect it to be close.

Kansas City (+2) over CLEVELAND – Kansas City looks a little frisky this year and you have to love their young playmakers. Meanwhile, Seneca Wallace will be starting for Cleveland. Unless Josh Cribbs returns three kicks for scores, I like the Chiefs to get off to their first 2-0 start since 2005.

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay – I hope nobody misses this Matt Moore vs. Josh Freeman shootout! Seriously, the Panthers should attempt to win this game by not attempting a single pass. I bet they could do it. Actually, it might be a better strategy than the one that allowed Matt Moore to turn the ball over four times last week.

CINCINNATI (+2.5) over Baltimore – Let’s pretend that last week didn’t happen and we would be looking at a line somewhere in the neighborhood of Cincinnati giving three. Because of one week’s events, you’re telling me this line reversed nearly six points? Not to mention the fact that Baltimore is playing its second consecutive road game on a short week against another physical opponent. Cincinnati should be able to exploit Baltimore’s weak and banged up secondary while their defense should rebound from a disappointing opening week.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Miami – I struggled with this one as 5.5 seems a bit much with Minnesota’s passing game in the shape that it is. That being said, I expect a great performance from A-Pete and a 7-10 point win for the Vikings at home.

DALLAS (-7) over Chicago – Chicago is looking to avoid a 0-2 start…wait, what? They didn’t count Calvin Johnson’s catch?!? Anyways, Dallas’ pass rush should be all over Jay Cutler this week and you know what means, interceptions galore! If the Cowboys can give Tony Romo any amount of time, I think a big performance at home is in store.

ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona – If you feel like saving Green Bay in your suicide pool for later in the year, Atlanta is a nice alternative. Did anyone else see how awful Derek Anderson looked last week, or how awful he has looked for two-plus seasons now? I still can’t fully understand what Ken Whisenhunt was thinking when he decided to go with Anderson AND trade Matt Leinart.

Philadelphia (-6.5) over DETROIT – If Matthew Stafford was playing I could see the Lions pulling the upset here but with Shaun Hill behind center I don’t see this game being very close. Looking forward to seeing what Mike Vick can do when a gameplan is in place both for him and against him.

DENVER (-3.5) over Seattle – Denver has played remarkably better at home under Josh McDaniels and I see that trend continuing this week against a Seahawks team primed for a letdown.

OAKLAND (-3.5) over St. Louis – If Oakland wants to show improvement on the field this year, they better be able to beat the Rams at home by more than 3.5 points.

New England (-3) over NEW YORK JETS – Tom Brady versus Mark Sanchez, hmmm….

WASHINGTON (+3) over Houston – Both teams could be in for a letdown after big home opening wins against hated rivals. Give me the home dog.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville – San Diego looked like it found its groove in the second half last week on offense. Jacksonville lost its two west coast games last year by a combined 61-3. I’m betting that the Chargers put half of that 61 on the board, minimum.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over New York Giants – The Manning Bowl…think a few television sets will be tuning into NBC Sunday night? I still feel as though the Colts offense will be as good, if not better, than it has been in sometime. The offensive line will get healthier as the season goes along and Manning will do what is needed in the meantime. The defense, on the other hand, may not be as good as I originally thought especially with another injury to Bob Sanders. I still feel as though that defense gets enough stops Sunday night for Peyton to do his thing and big brother puts up a big performance against little bro’.

SAN FRANCISCO (+6) over New Orleans – Ahhh, the trap game. After the way the 49ers played last week and the way New Orleans offense lights up scoreboards, shouldn’t this line be higher? Vegas knows what they’re doing. Besides, if San Fran doesn’t come out with a big effort this week, all of their offseason momentum would vanish and we could be staring at one of the worst divisions in modern history. (Ignore this paragraph when the Saints are up 24-0 in the 2nd quarter please!)