The 2011 Major League Baseball season is upon us and every year it seems that baseball season jumps out at us sooner and sooner. This year that IS the case as the season begins four days earlier than it has in years past. That just means more snow delays and 30 degree games in the North but hey, who cares, baseball is back!
Plenty of big names switched teams in the offseason with Cliff Lee teaming up with the already phenomenal Phillies rotation, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez joining the Red Sox, Adam Dunn to the White Sox, Vlad Guerrero and other veterans joined the youngsters in Baltimore, Manny and Johnny Damon headed south to the Rays and even the lowly Nationals spent big money to acquire Jayson Werth in free agency.
The noticeable trend there with the exception of Lee, Werth and Zach Greinke who was traded to Milwaukee, is that most of the big names either went to or stayed in the American League. In the National League, the biggest news was probably the inability of the Cardinals to lock up Albert Pujols to a long term deal. The Dodgers, Giants, Reds and Braves were just a few of the other contenders in the NL who remained relatively the same team from last season. It should be interesting to see how those strategies pan out and how the players who did join new teams impact the pennant races. Here is my quick preview and predictions, division by division, for the 2011 MLB season:
American League East
While the Red Sox were upgrading their line-up and defense and the Rays were bringing in veterans to stabilize their line-up, the biggest story in the offseason in the AL East was the Yankees inability to land Cliff Lee or another top-tier pitcher to stabilize their rotation. Still, the Yankees have the line-up and a lights out bullpen that should cover for the lack of depth in their rotation that should have them fighting for the division with the Red Sox. The Rays would be the favorite in pretty much every other division in baseball but are relegated to third in the lopsided East. Don’t rule these guys out, however, as the young arms continue to develop and Evan Longoria is one of the best players in baseball. If the Yanks or Sox suffer injuries or slip up at all, the Rays will be right there to pounce. Both Toronto and Baltimore are also mightily improved but in this division that hardly matters. Put the Blue Jays in most any other division and they are competing for the wild card at worst. Same with the Orioles, who continue to develop the great young arms they have in the system and added a few bats to stabilize the line-up.
Boston 94-68
New York 92 -70
Tampa Bay 88-74
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 77-85
American League Central
We should probably just pencil in the Minnesota Twins for 90 wins and the division crown because no matter how much we try to overanalyze this division, that is what seems to happen every year. Minnesota has won the division six times in the last ten years, averaging nearly 89 wins per season over that stretch. The Twins hope to have a healthy Justin Morneau back from his post-concussion symptoms to help stabilize an offense that should be able to score enough runs to go along with a deep pitching staff. I love the addition of Adam Dunn to the White Sox line-up and with their pitching depth and strong bullpen, Chicago should give the Twins everything they can handle for the division title. The Tigers are the third team that could compete for the division but they would probably need many things to break right and another MVP type season from Miguel Cabrera. Cleveland and Kansas City are by far the worst teams in the American League, although the Royals seem to have plenty of talent on the farm that could begin to arrive this year.
Minnesota 90-72
Chicago 88-74
Detroit 82-80
Kansas City 64-98
Cleveland 63-99
American League West
Texas’s inability to resign Cliff Lee probably opens this division back up to the fantastic pitching coming from the rest of the contenders but the Rangers still have the West’s best line-up and enough pitching to get by. The addition of Adrian Beltre bolsters their already outstanding line-up and helps sure up a terrific defensive infield. If the Rangers’ pitching falters, however, Anaheim is probably next in line with solid pitching depth and enough pop on offense, pending the healthy return of Kendrys Morales, to challenge. Oakland has a fantastic young pitching rotation led by Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill but still may lack the offense to truly contend. Seattle has the AL’s best pitcher in Felix Hernandez but not much else.
Texas 87-75
Anaheim 83-79
Oakland 82-80
Seattle 74-88
National League East
Cole Hamels was the ace of the staff when the Phillies won the World Series just three years ago. Now he’s the #4 pitcher on baseball’s best pitching staff since the mid-90’s Braves. Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels….just sick, and Joe Blanton isn’t such a bad #5. The Phillies offense is not as potent as it once was, and Chase Utley’s health is a huge concernt, but the Phils still have enough to win the most games in the National League pending the starters’ health. I have the Braves penciled in as the NL Wild Card as we sit today but if Jayson Heyward emerges as a star, Freddie Freeman holds his own as a rookie and Chipper starts to resemble the Chipper of old, the Braves could be right there with Philadelphia. If those things don’t happen, however, the Braves could find themselves in a dogfight with the Marlins and the rest of the NL Central and West contenders for that fourth playoff spot. Speaking of the Marlins, they could easily be this year’s surprise contenders. A solid offense led by Hanley Ramirez and young guns Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison combined with a sneaky good pitching rotation led by Josh Johnson could be enough to push Florida towards the top of the NL standings. New York still has Wright, Reyes and Beltran but no pitching and Washington eagerly awaits the return of Stephen Strasburg and the arrival of Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia 95-67
Atlanta 90 -72
Florida 85-77
New York 78-84
Washington 62-100
National League Central
The NL Central is probably the hardest division to forecast and it has nothing to do with the bottom two teams. If things break right for them I could see Cincinnati, Milwaukee or St. Louis running away with the division or even Chicago finding a way to win it, although that is a major long shot with their pitching. Conversely, if things break wrong for any of those teams I could see them falling out of the race by the All-Star break. In the end, I think we are looking at an extremely tight race between the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals with the Reds pitching depth ultimately pushing them over the top. I loved the Brewers acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum and their go for it now attitude, an approach that no other team in this wide open division took. As for the Cards, they were probably the favorite until the season ending injury to ace Adam Wainwright. As bad as the Buccos are, and I will have a more in-depth preview tomorrow, I would still rather be in their organization’s position than that of the Astros.
Cincinnati 88-74
Milwaukee 87 -75
St. Louis 85-77
Chicago 81-81
Pittsburgh 70-92
Houston 68-94
National League West
I’m predicting my first real upset here with the Los Angeles Dodgers narrowly edging out the defending World Series champs for the division crown. I just like the make-up of this Dodgers team with the arms of Kershaw, Billingsley and Lilly leading the rotation and a big bounce back year from Matt Kemp. The Giants will be strong again led by their fantastic pitching staff but I think they overachieved a bit with the bats last year and could suffer a bit from the age-old disease known as World Series hangover. Colorado should be in the mix as well if Troy Tulowitski can stay healthy and their starters continue where they left off last year. As for the Padres and Diamondbacks….there’s always next year.
Los Angeles 89-73
San Francisco 88 -74
Colorado 84-78
San Diego 69-93
Arizona 65-97
MVP
AL: Robinson Cano
NL: Ryan Braun
Cy Young
AL: Felix Hernandez
NL: Clayton Kershaw
Rookie of the Year
AL: Jeremy Hellickson
NL: Freddie Freeman
Coach of the Year
AL: Ozzie Guillen
NL: Don Mattingly
AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas
New York over Minnesota
New York over Boston
NL Playoffs
Philadelphia over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Los Angeles
Atlanta over Philadelphia
World Series
New York over Atlanta
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
More Tourney Talk
I probably do not need to tell you how shocking this Final Four really is. Quite frankly, I can’t even explain how or what happened with any real sense of conviction. I had seen both VCU and Butler numerous times during the season and neither had the look of a great mid-major team, let alone a team that could handle the big boys come tournament time. Heck, VCU was the third best team in their own conference behind George Mason and Old Dominion, two teams that combined to win one game in the tournament and Butler lost to Youngstown State! One of those teams will be playing for the title come Monday night!
I guess we shouldn’t be as surprised by Kentucky and Connecticut, two of the best programs in the country, but UConn finished ninth in the Big East during the regular season before getting on a roll here in March and Kentucky showed their youth time and again this year in close games and on the road. Words really can’t describe how shocked I am by this Final Four...or how awful my bracket turned out!
Here are some of my other thoughts from the second weekend of March Madness:
- I know the NCAA Tournament is supposed to be great because it gives even the lesser teams a chance to compete for the National Championship but when that reality actually happens as it has this year, I hate it. I just can’t help but be disappointed in having to watch two mid-major programs compete in the Final Four without a future NBA player among them. At least last year we could explain Butler by having a phenomenal coach in Brad Stevens and a future lottery pick in Gordon Heyward leading the way…this year we have two great, young coaches leading their respective programs but a bunch of overachieving, scrappy players getting it done on the court. Sorry, I just can’t get excited over watching two teams with maybe a combined three players between them that would crack Pitt’s two-deep rotation.
- I hate the BCS as much as the next guy but at least we know that the two teams competing for the national title are among the best few teams in the country. As deserving as Butler and VCU are of being where they are at, we can say pretty confidently that neither are among the top 15 or even 20 teams in the country.
- Three of the four teams in the Final Four won their conference tournament and the fourth, VCU, had to win a play-in game to reach the round of 64. If you don’t think that momentum carries over, I don’t know what to tell you.
- Pitt fans like to complain about their lack of tournament success, and rightfully so, but does anyone do less with more than Bill Self and Kansas? The national title they won a couple of years back, which was gift wrapped by John Calipari and Memphis, gives Self and the Jayhawks fans a few years of reprieve, but boy does it seem like they lose to vastly inferior team year-in and year-out with just enormous amounts of talent.
- There were a number of fantastic games over the weekend but my favorite was probably Arizona versus UConn. Those teams went at it toe to toe in that second half and it was a thoroughly enjoyable game. My other favorites were Florida-Butler and Florida-BYU. Florida’s inability to put teams away came back to haunt them against a Butler team that just wouldn’t quit.
- The reason I enjoyed those games over a couple of other close ones was because I enjoy seeing teams play well. Ohio State played extremely poorly by their standards in their loss to Kentucky, which took away from the dramatics at the end for me. Same with the North Carolina-Kentucky game as John Henson became a non-factor due to foul trouble. Ohio State’s loss to Kentucky really magnified how hard it is to make a Final Four when just one poor shooting night from even the best team can end a season. Pitt fans should take notice.
- As I mentioned earlier, I can’t say I am too excited for this Final Four. Of course I will watch it because what real sports fan wouldn’t, but my guess is this is the least watched Final Four in some time. I will certainly be cheering for the UConn-Kentucky winner to win the title on Monday and hope some sense of reason returns to the tournament. My guess and it is completely a guess at this point, is that Kentucky finds a way to cool off the red hot Huskies on Saturday night and pulls out a close win over the tremendously coached Butler Bulldogs in the title game. Judging by the rest of my bracket, however, that prediction all but guarantees that VCU will knock off Connecticut for the worst National Championship team in NCAA history…
I guess we shouldn’t be as surprised by Kentucky and Connecticut, two of the best programs in the country, but UConn finished ninth in the Big East during the regular season before getting on a roll here in March and Kentucky showed their youth time and again this year in close games and on the road. Words really can’t describe how shocked I am by this Final Four...or how awful my bracket turned out!
Here are some of my other thoughts from the second weekend of March Madness:
- I know the NCAA Tournament is supposed to be great because it gives even the lesser teams a chance to compete for the National Championship but when that reality actually happens as it has this year, I hate it. I just can’t help but be disappointed in having to watch two mid-major programs compete in the Final Four without a future NBA player among them. At least last year we could explain Butler by having a phenomenal coach in Brad Stevens and a future lottery pick in Gordon Heyward leading the way…this year we have two great, young coaches leading their respective programs but a bunch of overachieving, scrappy players getting it done on the court. Sorry, I just can’t get excited over watching two teams with maybe a combined three players between them that would crack Pitt’s two-deep rotation.
- I hate the BCS as much as the next guy but at least we know that the two teams competing for the national title are among the best few teams in the country. As deserving as Butler and VCU are of being where they are at, we can say pretty confidently that neither are among the top 15 or even 20 teams in the country.
- Three of the four teams in the Final Four won their conference tournament and the fourth, VCU, had to win a play-in game to reach the round of 64. If you don’t think that momentum carries over, I don’t know what to tell you.
- Pitt fans like to complain about their lack of tournament success, and rightfully so, but does anyone do less with more than Bill Self and Kansas? The national title they won a couple of years back, which was gift wrapped by John Calipari and Memphis, gives Self and the Jayhawks fans a few years of reprieve, but boy does it seem like they lose to vastly inferior team year-in and year-out with just enormous amounts of talent.
- There were a number of fantastic games over the weekend but my favorite was probably Arizona versus UConn. Those teams went at it toe to toe in that second half and it was a thoroughly enjoyable game. My other favorites were Florida-Butler and Florida-BYU. Florida’s inability to put teams away came back to haunt them against a Butler team that just wouldn’t quit.
- The reason I enjoyed those games over a couple of other close ones was because I enjoy seeing teams play well. Ohio State played extremely poorly by their standards in their loss to Kentucky, which took away from the dramatics at the end for me. Same with the North Carolina-Kentucky game as John Henson became a non-factor due to foul trouble. Ohio State’s loss to Kentucky really magnified how hard it is to make a Final Four when just one poor shooting night from even the best team can end a season. Pitt fans should take notice.
- As I mentioned earlier, I can’t say I am too excited for this Final Four. Of course I will watch it because what real sports fan wouldn’t, but my guess is this is the least watched Final Four in some time. I will certainly be cheering for the UConn-Kentucky winner to win the title on Monday and hope some sense of reason returns to the tournament. My guess and it is completely a guess at this point, is that Kentucky finds a way to cool off the red hot Huskies on Saturday night and pulls out a close win over the tremendously coached Butler Bulldogs in the title game. Judging by the rest of my bracket, however, that prediction all but guarantees that VCU will knock off Connecticut for the worst National Championship team in NCAA history…
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Tournament Talk
Yesterday I wrote about Pitt’s disappointing loss so today we will try to eliminate their string of disappointing tournament runs from our thoughts and instead focus on the rest of this past weekend and look ahead to the rest of the tournament.
- I thought at the outset of the tournament that Ohio State at its best was better than any other team in the country and their play over the first weekend of the tournament did nothing to disprove that notion. Their lack of depth continues to be somewhat of a concern but the Buckeyes certainly proved why they were the #1 overall seed entering the tournament.
- Despite how great Ohio State looked, however, it is hard not to make Kansas the favorite at this point. That is not because of how great the Jayhawks looked, even though they did play well, it is because of the potential paths each team has to a championship game. Ohio State could very well see Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke just to make it to the title game while Kansas will face Richmond, the winner of VCU-Florida State and the survivor of the watered down Southeast region. No comparison there about which team has the easier path. I would be lying if I didn’t say I feel pretty good about my National Champion selection of Kansas.
- The other remaining number one seed got a surprising boost when freshman Kyrie Irving suited up for the first time in three months. Irving didn’t have his same explosiveness that we first saw at the beginning of the season but that should be expected coming back from such a long layoff. I am very interested to see how Irving looks this weekend with a couple of games and another week of practice under his belt. A healthy Irving puts Duke right there with Ohio State and Kansas as the prohibitive favorites to cut down the nets.
- All in all the officials do a great job in what is a thankless and almost impossible position to be in. One call that needs to be changed however - and this is not the officials fault as they call the rule as it is written - is the charging violation. Right now it is way, way too easy for a help defender to slide underneath an offensive player going to the hoop. The way the rule is currently being called puts an impossible judgment call on the official to make, it puts the offensive player in danger of getting hurt, and ultimately it makes for some ugly basketball. The first thing the NCAA needs to do is put in the semi-circle like the NBA has to stop charges from occurring underneath the basket and to make the call easier on the official. The second thing that needs to happen is that when a call is in doubt, it should be called a blocking violation. This will stop rewarding defensive players from trying to take so many charges and open the game back up. The game of basketball is a much more appealing and free-moving game to watch when bodies aren't flying all over the place underneath the basket for most of the game.
- Four double digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and a fifth sleeper as defined by our rules last week, Butler, has also joined the party. We knew it was a down year in terms of top talent around the NCAA, but for nearly a third of the final sixteen teams to be an eight seed or above is pretty remarkable. It could also mean that we are in for some ugly basketball on Thursday and Friday night.
- The game I am probably looking forward to most is San Diego State versus Connecticut. It should be fun to see if Kemba Walker can continue leading the Huskies on their incredible tournament run while the Aztecs have plenty of size and athletes to match-up. I am sticking with my pre-tournament pick of Connecticut in this one but it wouldn’t surprise me if Steve Fisher’s boys find a way to get it done.
- Six of my original Elite Eight teams remain and three of my four Final Four teams remain. (I promised I wouldn’t mention that fourth team!) I am sticking by all of my original selections with the revised predictions of Florida beating Wisconsin in the Southeast region to be our fourth Final Four team and Florida State knocking off cinderella VCU in the battle of sleeper supremacy.
- I am looking forward to another great weekend of basketball in what truly is the best month of the year on the sports calendar!
- I thought at the outset of the tournament that Ohio State at its best was better than any other team in the country and their play over the first weekend of the tournament did nothing to disprove that notion. Their lack of depth continues to be somewhat of a concern but the Buckeyes certainly proved why they were the #1 overall seed entering the tournament.
- Despite how great Ohio State looked, however, it is hard not to make Kansas the favorite at this point. That is not because of how great the Jayhawks looked, even though they did play well, it is because of the potential paths each team has to a championship game. Ohio State could very well see Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke just to make it to the title game while Kansas will face Richmond, the winner of VCU-Florida State and the survivor of the watered down Southeast region. No comparison there about which team has the easier path. I would be lying if I didn’t say I feel pretty good about my National Champion selection of Kansas.
- The other remaining number one seed got a surprising boost when freshman Kyrie Irving suited up for the first time in three months. Irving didn’t have his same explosiveness that we first saw at the beginning of the season but that should be expected coming back from such a long layoff. I am very interested to see how Irving looks this weekend with a couple of games and another week of practice under his belt. A healthy Irving puts Duke right there with Ohio State and Kansas as the prohibitive favorites to cut down the nets.
- All in all the officials do a great job in what is a thankless and almost impossible position to be in. One call that needs to be changed however - and this is not the officials fault as they call the rule as it is written - is the charging violation. Right now it is way, way too easy for a help defender to slide underneath an offensive player going to the hoop. The way the rule is currently being called puts an impossible judgment call on the official to make, it puts the offensive player in danger of getting hurt, and ultimately it makes for some ugly basketball. The first thing the NCAA needs to do is put in the semi-circle like the NBA has to stop charges from occurring underneath the basket and to make the call easier on the official. The second thing that needs to happen is that when a call is in doubt, it should be called a blocking violation. This will stop rewarding defensive players from trying to take so many charges and open the game back up. The game of basketball is a much more appealing and free-moving game to watch when bodies aren't flying all over the place underneath the basket for most of the game.
- Four double digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and a fifth sleeper as defined by our rules last week, Butler, has also joined the party. We knew it was a down year in terms of top talent around the NCAA, but for nearly a third of the final sixteen teams to be an eight seed or above is pretty remarkable. It could also mean that we are in for some ugly basketball on Thursday and Friday night.
- The game I am probably looking forward to most is San Diego State versus Connecticut. It should be fun to see if Kemba Walker can continue leading the Huskies on their incredible tournament run while the Aztecs have plenty of size and athletes to match-up. I am sticking with my pre-tournament pick of Connecticut in this one but it wouldn’t surprise me if Steve Fisher’s boys find a way to get it done.
- Six of my original Elite Eight teams remain and three of my four Final Four teams remain. (I promised I wouldn’t mention that fourth team!) I am sticking by all of my original selections with the revised predictions of Florida beating Wisconsin in the Southeast region to be our fourth Final Four team and Florida State knocking off cinderella VCU in the battle of sleeper supremacy.
- I am looking forward to another great weekend of basketball in what truly is the best month of the year on the sports calendar!
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Pitt Loss Becoming a Trend, on Dixon
Before we dive into all of the action from the weekend, I have to address the Pitt loss in some detail. Year after year now Pitt has continued to struggle in the NCAA Tournament. As one very adamant Pitt fan explained in detail to me yesterday, Jamie Dixon has now lost to a lower seeded team in the tournament all eight years since he has been in charge. He has never beaten a higher seeded team. Despite being 11-8 overall in the tournament, that is not a pretty fact. Jamie Dixon supporters, which I am one of, should stop calling him a “great” coach. He is good, not great at this point. Great are guys like Coach K, Rick Pitino, Jim Calhoun and Roy Williams. Those guys have won championships, been to Final Fours and achieved great success with a number of teams.
As I mentioned, I am a Dixon supporter and think Pitt should give him a lifetime contract tomorrow if he wanted one. That being said, this loss falls squarely on his shoulders and he deserves all of the criticism being thrown his way this week. More alarming, however, is this trend that is developing with the type of games his Pitt teams have lost and their continued breakdown in close games. A different Pitt fan expressed his concern to me on Friday that he was worried about Shelvin Mack going off because he is the exact kind of player that has killed Pitt in the past. Well, what happened? Mack went off, the Panthers had to rally against an inferior team and then they eventually choked in the end. Dixon’s defensive strategy on great guards like Mack needs to change. Whether it was defensive breakdowns and missed assignments like Gilbert Brown alluded to in his press conference we will never know - only the guys in the room know that - but this has continually happened over Dixon’s career, and that was only part of the in-game strategy that was poor. There were countless other instances of poor coaching and/or preparation including the failure to even get a shot off before the shot clock violation leading by one late in the game.
Further, leaving the guys on the foul line for Gilbert Brown’s second free throw was inexcusable. I said it before the shot to those I was watching the game with, “why are they still on the foul line”. Sure, Nasir Robinson made a boneheaded play but he’s a college kid wanting desperately to be the hero. A “great” coach doesn’t put his player in the position to make that kind of mistake. No, a great coach puts his team in position to win everytime on floor, something Dixon has failed to do come tournament time. Dixon is a good coach and he’s learning on the job with no prior head-coaching experience but at some point he needs to get over his tournament troubles. I think that time will come. If you continually put yourself in position to succeed and he continues to bring in the kind of players he now is, eventually Jamie Dixon and Pitt will break through with a great tournament run. It would be nice though if that time came sooner rather than later.
I will be back a little later today with the rest of my thoughts on the action from this weekend.
As I mentioned, I am a Dixon supporter and think Pitt should give him a lifetime contract tomorrow if he wanted one. That being said, this loss falls squarely on his shoulders and he deserves all of the criticism being thrown his way this week. More alarming, however, is this trend that is developing with the type of games his Pitt teams have lost and their continued breakdown in close games. A different Pitt fan expressed his concern to me on Friday that he was worried about Shelvin Mack going off because he is the exact kind of player that has killed Pitt in the past. Well, what happened? Mack went off, the Panthers had to rally against an inferior team and then they eventually choked in the end. Dixon’s defensive strategy on great guards like Mack needs to change. Whether it was defensive breakdowns and missed assignments like Gilbert Brown alluded to in his press conference we will never know - only the guys in the room know that - but this has continually happened over Dixon’s career, and that was only part of the in-game strategy that was poor. There were countless other instances of poor coaching and/or preparation including the failure to even get a shot off before the shot clock violation leading by one late in the game.
Further, leaving the guys on the foul line for Gilbert Brown’s second free throw was inexcusable. I said it before the shot to those I was watching the game with, “why are they still on the foul line”. Sure, Nasir Robinson made a boneheaded play but he’s a college kid wanting desperately to be the hero. A “great” coach doesn’t put his player in the position to make that kind of mistake. No, a great coach puts his team in position to win everytime on floor, something Dixon has failed to do come tournament time. Dixon is a good coach and he’s learning on the job with no prior head-coaching experience but at some point he needs to get over his tournament troubles. I think that time will come. If you continually put yourself in position to succeed and he continues to bring in the kind of players he now is, eventually Jamie Dixon and Pitt will break through with a great tournament run. It would be nice though if that time came sooner rather than later.
I will be back a little later today with the rest of my thoughts on the action from this weekend.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
NCAA Bracket Selections 2011
Thursday has come, everyone has filled out their brackets and opening tip-off of the 2011 NCAA Tournament is just hours away. The first Thursday and Friday of the NCAA Tournament have a certain buzz about them, kind of like we are watching something great develop in its infant stages. I, of course, have taken the afternoon off and a vacation day on Friday to watch all of the action.
Before we get to the games, however, it is time to unveil the “official” People’s Quarterback bracket. I call it official because like so many of you, I fill out too many of these things to keep track of. This one, however, is the one I am holding myself accountable for, as Regis used to say, “final answer!”
If those first two paragraphs sounded familiar, they should! Those were the opening two paragraphs I used last year before I went on to say how much I know, blah, blah, blah. I know you just want the picks, so we’ll get right to them.
I like upsets early and chalk late. I also have the same Final Four and champion as the President, which isn’t such a bad thing in case he ever gets bored with that simple job he does and comes across the blog. Here are the picks:
East
Ohio State over George Mason
Kentucky over Clemson
Syracuse over Marquette
UNC over Washington
Ohio State over UNC
West
Duke over Tennessee
Texas over Arizona
UConn over Cincinnati
Penn State over San Diego State
Duke over UConn
Southwest
Kansas over UNLV
Louisville over Richmond
Purdue over Georgetown
Texas A&M over Notre Dame
Kansas over Purdue
Southeast
Pittsburgh over Old Dominion
Utah State over Wisconsin
BYU over Gonzaga
Florida over Michigan State
Pittsburgh over Florida
Final Four
Ohio State over Duke
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Kansas over Ohio State
Before we get to the games, however, it is time to unveil the “official” People’s Quarterback bracket. I call it official because like so many of you, I fill out too many of these things to keep track of. This one, however, is the one I am holding myself accountable for, as Regis used to say, “final answer!”
If those first two paragraphs sounded familiar, they should! Those were the opening two paragraphs I used last year before I went on to say how much I know, blah, blah, blah. I know you just want the picks, so we’ll get right to them.
I like upsets early and chalk late. I also have the same Final Four and champion as the President, which isn’t such a bad thing in case he ever gets bored with that simple job he does and comes across the blog. Here are the picks:
East
Ohio State over George Mason
Kentucky over Clemson
Syracuse over Marquette
UNC over Washington
Ohio State over UNC
West
Duke over Tennessee
Texas over Arizona
UConn over Cincinnati
Penn State over San Diego State
Duke over UConn
Southwest
Kansas over UNLV
Louisville over Richmond
Purdue over Georgetown
Texas A&M over Notre Dame
Kansas over Purdue
Southeast
Pittsburgh over Old Dominion
Utah State over Wisconsin
BYU over Gonzaga
Florida over Michigan State
Pittsburgh over Florida
Final Four
Ohio State over Duke
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Kansas over Ohio State
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Bracket Thoughts
- For those of you that are not long-time readers you probably don’t know that Selection Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year. To check out the piece I wrote about Selection Sunday last year, click here.
- Pitt fans should be thrilled with the Panthers draw. I commented to my brother on Sunday that I do not think Pitt could have received a better region if they had picked it out themselves.
- I have read or heard others who do not think Pitt’s draw is as good as I believe because of their potential second round (I guess it is now called the third round but nobody is speaking in those terms yet) match-up with Old Dominion or Butler and a possible Sweet 16 opponent of Kansas State. Listen…if you are a number one seed and you are worried about a 2nd round game against a non-power conference team and the team you think offers the most potential problems in your region is the #5 seed, you got a damn good draw.
- I would agree that Duke has the second easiest region among the four number one seeds (many of the TV experts think Duke has the easiest). That leads me to the question of what the heck is the committee doing? Ohio State and Kansas are clearly the #1 and #2 overall seeds in the tournament and were named rightly so. How can the committee justify having their regions being the most difficult? I know this is a matter of perception but still, it is pretty clear to even the least knowledgeable college basketball fan that Kansas and Ohio State were not rewarded properly for their overall seeds.
- I guess the actual reason is not the committee’s fault. This whole idea of putting the top seeds in their “pods” and then placing them in the respective regions to keep them close to their fan bases is ridiculous. Line the teams up 1-68 and seed the tournament accordingly.
- Another pet-peeve of mine that has developed is listening to these “experts” calling teams such as Purdue, Louisville and Syracuse a “sleeper”. We need to make some kind of universal ground rules up for what a sleeper is. My suggestion is two-part:
(1) If we are talking about the ability to win the national championship, no team that is a top four seed in its region can be considered a sleeper. If you are ranked in the top 15 or 16 in the country you have a legitimate shot to win six straight games and cut down the nets.
(2) If we are talking about true sleepers, as in a team that people would be at least a little bit surprised if they made the Sweet 16 or better, then a team must be seeded 7th or higher in its region to be considered. No one would be surprised if #6 seeds like Georgetown or Cincinnati make a little run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. They are not sleepers.
- Speaking of Georgetown, if it is true that Chris Wright is expected back I see a legitimate scenario where the Big East has seven or eight Sweet 16 teams and possibly three of the Final Four teams. Even with that kind of depth, however, I still don’t see a Big East team winning the National Championship. My money today would be on Duke, Ohio State or Kansas…and I am leaning towards Duke after seeing each team’s respective brackets.
- I will make my official picks Thursday morning. We have to see who wins these horrible, nobody really cares about them, play-in games before we make our official predictions right?!? But since you’re reading this today, I’ll take Clemson, USC, UNC-Asheville and UT-San Antonio in the play-in games.
- Pitt fans should be thrilled with the Panthers draw. I commented to my brother on Sunday that I do not think Pitt could have received a better region if they had picked it out themselves.
- I have read or heard others who do not think Pitt’s draw is as good as I believe because of their potential second round (I guess it is now called the third round but nobody is speaking in those terms yet) match-up with Old Dominion or Butler and a possible Sweet 16 opponent of Kansas State. Listen…if you are a number one seed and you are worried about a 2nd round game against a non-power conference team and the team you think offers the most potential problems in your region is the #5 seed, you got a damn good draw.
- I would agree that Duke has the second easiest region among the four number one seeds (many of the TV experts think Duke has the easiest). That leads me to the question of what the heck is the committee doing? Ohio State and Kansas are clearly the #1 and #2 overall seeds in the tournament and were named rightly so. How can the committee justify having their regions being the most difficult? I know this is a matter of perception but still, it is pretty clear to even the least knowledgeable college basketball fan that Kansas and Ohio State were not rewarded properly for their overall seeds.
- I guess the actual reason is not the committee’s fault. This whole idea of putting the top seeds in their “pods” and then placing them in the respective regions to keep them close to their fan bases is ridiculous. Line the teams up 1-68 and seed the tournament accordingly.
- Another pet-peeve of mine that has developed is listening to these “experts” calling teams such as Purdue, Louisville and Syracuse a “sleeper”. We need to make some kind of universal ground rules up for what a sleeper is. My suggestion is two-part:
(1) If we are talking about the ability to win the national championship, no team that is a top four seed in its region can be considered a sleeper. If you are ranked in the top 15 or 16 in the country you have a legitimate shot to win six straight games and cut down the nets.
(2) If we are talking about true sleepers, as in a team that people would be at least a little bit surprised if they made the Sweet 16 or better, then a team must be seeded 7th or higher in its region to be considered. No one would be surprised if #6 seeds like Georgetown or Cincinnati make a little run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. They are not sleepers.
- Speaking of Georgetown, if it is true that Chris Wright is expected back I see a legitimate scenario where the Big East has seven or eight Sweet 16 teams and possibly three of the Final Four teams. Even with that kind of depth, however, I still don’t see a Big East team winning the National Championship. My money today would be on Duke, Ohio State or Kansas…and I am leaning towards Duke after seeing each team’s respective brackets.
- I will make my official picks Thursday morning. We have to see who wins these horrible, nobody really cares about them, play-in games before we make our official predictions right?!? But since you’re reading this today, I’ll take Clemson, USC, UNC-Asheville and UT-San Antonio in the play-in games.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
National Title Contenders
Late last week I was halfway paying attention to a college basketball post-game show on ESPNU when they started going over the qualifications, for lack of a better word, needed for a team to win the national championship. Among their qualifications; the team had to have a scoring margin greater than ten points, have at least a 10-game winning streak at some point during the season and finally they must have been ranked in the top 10 to begin the season. Those qualifications narrowed the list of title contenders for this year to Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh and Purdue.
The hosts of the show said that the last four national champions all fit these criteria. While the sample size associated with these qualifications is pretty much meaningless, it did get me to thinking about which teams are legitimate national title contenders. Taking a quick look at this week’s rankings, I see seven teams with legitimate national title aspirations, another three or four teams that have an outside shot, and with no disrespect to BYU and San Diego State, a few teams that have no shot despite their lofty ranking.
Let’s take a quick look at the teams with legitimate national title hopes and rank them on a 1-10 scale for their likelihood of actually cutting down the nets come the first Monday in April. For comparisons sake on our 1-10 scale, a 1 can be compared to the 1997 Arizona team led by Mike Bibby and Miles Simon (yes, I just wanted to get people reminiscing on that team), the most surprising of the last 15 or so national champions and 10 being 2007 Florida, the most favored champion in recent history entering the tournament.
Ohio State – Anyone who saw Ohio St. dismantle Wisconsin on Sunday saw what was probably the most complete and well-played game that any team has played all season. The Buckeyes have a star in Jared Sullinger on the block, solid shooters around him, a very solid backcourt and experience with David Lighty, William Buford and Jon Diebler; pretty much all of the ingredients needed to win a national title. Ohio State’s one flaw is their lack of depth as they basically play only six guys, meaning Sullinger must stay out of foul trouble and the Buckeyes can’t afford an injury along the way. No team in college basketball is as good or as complete as that 2007 Florida team, but the Buckeyes at their best are the best team in college basketball this season. National Title Ranking: 8.
Kansas – If there is a team out there who can challenge Ohio State at its best it’s the Jayhawks. Kansas has it all; size, speed, shooting, inside scoring, depth, coaching. In my opinion, Kansas has the most well-rounded roster in college basketball in terms of team dynamics. The star power is also there with the Morris twins and freshman Josh Selby to make Kansas my co-favorite to win it all. The one question I continue to have with Kansas is their toughness underneath and on defense. National Title Ranking: 8.
Duke – Can’t help but wonder how good this Duke team would be with injured freshman point guard Kyrie Irving but at this point it is probably safe to assume that the super frosh won’t be back. Still, the Blue Devils are plenty capable of making a national title run with plenty of big game experience and two stars in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler leading the way. The stars do need more help from the Plumlee brothers and Andre Dawkins among others, but with the right draw and continued excellence from Smith and Singler, you have to give this team just as good a chance at the outset of the tournament as the team that won the national championship last year. National Title Ranking: 6.
North Carolina – Pretty hard to believe that the Tar Heels are this high on the list after a very rough start to the season but North Carolina has played as well as any team in America over the past month or so. UNC’s ascension began with the insertion of Kendall Marshall at the point guard position and watching the kid play it is no wonder. Marshall allows Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller and the rest of the Hells to play within their comfort zones with his incredible passing and fantastic game management skills. In a normal year, this is probably only a fringe national title contender but in an overall down season, the Tar Heels have as good as shot any team outside of Columbus, OH or Lawrence, KS. National Title Ranking: 6.
Pittsburgh – Pitt is every bit as talented as the two teams I rank above them on this list but until the Panthers get over their post-season hump I just can’t put them on equal terms with Duke and North Carolina. I think the key for the Panthers is Brad Wannamaker’s penetrating ability. The Panthers need Wannamaker to create easy scoring opportunities on the inside and open looks on the outside for Ashton Gibbs to be a dynamic offensive team. Without Wannamaker creating these easy scoring opportunities, the Panthers are too reliant on their offensive rebounding and physicality, something that could haunt them if they run into the wrong officiating crew in the tourney. Anything less than a Final Four run, however, would be a disappointment for this team. National Title Ranking: 5.
Purdue – No team in the country has an inside-outside duo like the Boilermakers do with JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. The qualifications listed at the beginning of this column also represent that this team’s resume is much better than many may have anticipated. The question for Purdue is if it has enough around its two dynamic players to really make a splash. National Title Ranking: 3.
Texas – Texas defends as well as any team in the nation, pounds the glass and plays a physical brand of basketball that most teams cannot rival. Texas’ recent problems have been centered around failing to get the ball inside and relying on too many perimeter shots. If you would have asked me two or three weeks ago this ranking would have been much higher but it is never a good sign when you are not playing well heading into March. Of all the teams on this list, however, a run in the Big 12 tournament would most dramatically boost their stock heading into the Big Dance in my mind. If Texas were to win or make it to the conference tournament finals, I would probably put them back up to the Pitt level but for now: National Title Ranking: 3.
Those are the seven true national title contenders I see. Other teams that could win it that wouldn’t be a total shock include Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida (who is better than people realize) and a true darkhorse in Georgetown if Chris Wright can get healthy in time for the tournament. But if recent history tells us anything, expect the national champion to come from the group of seven I have ranked above. Remember that when filling out your brackets next week.
The hosts of the show said that the last four national champions all fit these criteria. While the sample size associated with these qualifications is pretty much meaningless, it did get me to thinking about which teams are legitimate national title contenders. Taking a quick look at this week’s rankings, I see seven teams with legitimate national title aspirations, another three or four teams that have an outside shot, and with no disrespect to BYU and San Diego State, a few teams that have no shot despite their lofty ranking.
Let’s take a quick look at the teams with legitimate national title hopes and rank them on a 1-10 scale for their likelihood of actually cutting down the nets come the first Monday in April. For comparisons sake on our 1-10 scale, a 1 can be compared to the 1997 Arizona team led by Mike Bibby and Miles Simon (yes, I just wanted to get people reminiscing on that team), the most surprising of the last 15 or so national champions and 10 being 2007 Florida, the most favored champion in recent history entering the tournament.
Ohio State – Anyone who saw Ohio St. dismantle Wisconsin on Sunday saw what was probably the most complete and well-played game that any team has played all season. The Buckeyes have a star in Jared Sullinger on the block, solid shooters around him, a very solid backcourt and experience with David Lighty, William Buford and Jon Diebler; pretty much all of the ingredients needed to win a national title. Ohio State’s one flaw is their lack of depth as they basically play only six guys, meaning Sullinger must stay out of foul trouble and the Buckeyes can’t afford an injury along the way. No team in college basketball is as good or as complete as that 2007 Florida team, but the Buckeyes at their best are the best team in college basketball this season. National Title Ranking: 8.
Kansas – If there is a team out there who can challenge Ohio State at its best it’s the Jayhawks. Kansas has it all; size, speed, shooting, inside scoring, depth, coaching. In my opinion, Kansas has the most well-rounded roster in college basketball in terms of team dynamics. The star power is also there with the Morris twins and freshman Josh Selby to make Kansas my co-favorite to win it all. The one question I continue to have with Kansas is their toughness underneath and on defense. National Title Ranking: 8.
Duke – Can’t help but wonder how good this Duke team would be with injured freshman point guard Kyrie Irving but at this point it is probably safe to assume that the super frosh won’t be back. Still, the Blue Devils are plenty capable of making a national title run with plenty of big game experience and two stars in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler leading the way. The stars do need more help from the Plumlee brothers and Andre Dawkins among others, but with the right draw and continued excellence from Smith and Singler, you have to give this team just as good a chance at the outset of the tournament as the team that won the national championship last year. National Title Ranking: 6.
North Carolina – Pretty hard to believe that the Tar Heels are this high on the list after a very rough start to the season but North Carolina has played as well as any team in America over the past month or so. UNC’s ascension began with the insertion of Kendall Marshall at the point guard position and watching the kid play it is no wonder. Marshall allows Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller and the rest of the Hells to play within their comfort zones with his incredible passing and fantastic game management skills. In a normal year, this is probably only a fringe national title contender but in an overall down season, the Tar Heels have as good as shot any team outside of Columbus, OH or Lawrence, KS. National Title Ranking: 6.
Pittsburgh – Pitt is every bit as talented as the two teams I rank above them on this list but until the Panthers get over their post-season hump I just can’t put them on equal terms with Duke and North Carolina. I think the key for the Panthers is Brad Wannamaker’s penetrating ability. The Panthers need Wannamaker to create easy scoring opportunities on the inside and open looks on the outside for Ashton Gibbs to be a dynamic offensive team. Without Wannamaker creating these easy scoring opportunities, the Panthers are too reliant on their offensive rebounding and physicality, something that could haunt them if they run into the wrong officiating crew in the tourney. Anything less than a Final Four run, however, would be a disappointment for this team. National Title Ranking: 5.
Purdue – No team in the country has an inside-outside duo like the Boilermakers do with JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. The qualifications listed at the beginning of this column also represent that this team’s resume is much better than many may have anticipated. The question for Purdue is if it has enough around its two dynamic players to really make a splash. National Title Ranking: 3.
Texas – Texas defends as well as any team in the nation, pounds the glass and plays a physical brand of basketball that most teams cannot rival. Texas’ recent problems have been centered around failing to get the ball inside and relying on too many perimeter shots. If you would have asked me two or three weeks ago this ranking would have been much higher but it is never a good sign when you are not playing well heading into March. Of all the teams on this list, however, a run in the Big 12 tournament would most dramatically boost their stock heading into the Big Dance in my mind. If Texas were to win or make it to the conference tournament finals, I would probably put them back up to the Pitt level but for now: National Title Ranking: 3.
Those are the seven true national title contenders I see. Other teams that could win it that wouldn’t be a total shock include Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida (who is better than people realize) and a true darkhorse in Georgetown if Chris Wright can get healthy in time for the tournament. But if recent history tells us anything, expect the national champion to come from the group of seven I have ranked above. Remember that when filling out your brackets next week.
Friday, March 4, 2011
NBA Smorgasbord...It's Fantastic!
I don’t often get the chance to write about the NBA even though I probably follow the league as much as any of the diehard fans in cities that have a team but hey, you have to give your audience what they want, right? With the presence of a professional team in the other three major U.S. sports as well as one of the marquee teams in college basketball, the NBA understandably takes a backseat in the minds of sports fans in the ‘Burgh. It is kind of a shame though, as the NBA has never been as strong or as deep as it is today. With that, I am going to use today’s smorgasbord to give some of my thoughts on the “Association” as we head towards what is shaping up to be a terrific two months of NBA playoff basketball.
* I mentioned in the opening that the league has never been as talented or as deep as it is today and to be honest, it isn’t even close. At least seven, maybe even eight teams have a legitimate shot to win the NBA title this year. (In case you were wondering those seven teams are San Antonio, Los Angeles, Dallas, Boston, Miami, Chicago and Orlando…with Oklahoma City having a puncher’s chance.) Just one year ago that number was only four, and going back to the heydays of Jordan, Magic and Larry there was never more than three or four teams that had a legitimate shot at the title in any given year. This is not the result of a watered down league either as each of these rosters have at least one superstar and in most instances multiple stars on them.
* It is not just the top teams featuring star players either. Even some of the league’s worst teams feature young, exciting stars in the making such as Kevin Love in Minnesota, Blake Griffin for the Clippers and John Wall for Washington. Really the only team with nothing going for it right now is Cleveland, and we all know the reasons for that. If you are a true fan of basketball at its highest level it is pretty easy to find a game or a team to watch almost every night of the week.
* After Miami blew a 24 point lead last night in losing to the Orlando Magic the talk is going to heat up (no pun intended) on how LeBron and company continue to lose close games and to the other elite teams. Last night’s loss dropped the Heat to 3-9 against the other six teams mentioned as true contenders above and a lousy 5-12 in games decided by five points or less. The truth of the matter, however, is that neither of these records means a thing. How do I know this? Glad you asked…
* If you are a fan of the NBA, a fan of statistical analysis, or just a fan of good writing and you have not read John Hollinger’s stuff on ESPN, do yourself a favor and get an insider account. Hollinger’s stuff is worth the yearly price alone. Anyhow, Hollinger points out that records against elite teams and in close games are essentially meaningless when assessing a team’s ability to win a championship. He doesn’t just say this; he shows empirical statistical evidence to support the notion. More important factors include scoring margin (Miami owns the league’s best), star power (LeBron and Wade) and performance heading into the playoffs (Miami is 34-10 since the opening month, the 2nd best record in the league over that stretch). Next time you turn on ESPN or TNT and hear the talking heads ranting about Miami’s record in close games, do yourself a favor and change the channel until they begin talking about things that matter. Do yourself another favor when filling out your NBA Playoff Bracket – do those exist?! – and remember that Miami has the best pair of players in the world and thank me in June.
* While Miami would be my guess as to who will win the title at the end of the day, I put their odds of winning it at no better than those of the Lakers, Celtics or Spurs. Each of those teams has multiple stars themselves, major playoff experience and fantastic defensive systems. Dallas and Orlando aren’t far behind either with unique rosters built around Dirk and Howard, respectively, and both teams are playoff battle-tested as well. Like I said, this is shaping up to be one of the best stretches of playoff basketball in NBA history.
* Turning our attention away from the court for just a second; if you haven’t paid much attention to the NBA yet this season you may be quite shocked to take a quick look at each team’s rosters. Tons of players changed teams at the trade deadline and unless you live under the rock you have probably heard about the most prominent of the moves being Carmelo Anthony’s trade to the Knicks. Between Anthony forcing Denver’s hand, LeBron’s “Decision”, and the rumors of more NBA superstars joining forces in coming years there has been a sentiment being pushed about that the players now control the league. The fact of the matter is that players have always controlled the league. The difference today is that the level of media scrutiny takes everything to a whole new level. It was 30 years ago when Magic Johnson had his coached forced out in only his second season in the league. Further, if you take a look at the NBA’s list of its 50 greatest players you will notice that a remarkable number of them played the primes of their careers in more than one city, often joining forces with other stars.
* Today’s moves from the league’s marquee players are nothing new and with the enormous amount of talent around the league at this time I expect some major rivalries to develop as the result. Rivalries are always good for a league and great for our entertainment. For NBA fans out there, sit back and enjoy what should be great theatre this playoff season and what should be some great basketball over the next few years, barring a lockout of course. For you non-NBA fans, I am surprised you made it this far but if you have hopefully I have peaked your interest just a bit. The NBA…it’s FANtastic!
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Pens Must Have Crosby
There has been some talk around Pittsburgh lately about the Penguins Stanley Cup chances without the return of Sidney Crosby. I have two words for those people: Get Real.
Sorry folks, I do not mean to burst any bubbles but if Sidney Crosby is unable to return from the post-concussion syndromes that are plaguing him, the Penguins have about as much chance to win the Stanley Cup as Charlie Sheen does of becoming our next president. Since Crosby’s last game on January 5th, the Penguins have averaged 2.26 goals per game. That would be the second worst average in the league over the full season putting the Penguins in the company of cellar dwellers Ottawa and New Jersey. What’s worse is that number drops to 2.13 goals per game in the games the Penguins have played without Crosby and Malkin. You can’t win many games, let alone 16 in the Stanley Cup playoffs, without being able to put the puck behind the opposing goalie at least once in a while.
It is true that the Penguins have been dealing with other injuries as well, including those to forwards Chris Kunitz and Mark Letestu, and have added Alexei Kovalev and James Neal to beef up the scoring, but the four of them on their best days cannot replace the production lost without Crosby in the line-up. Let’s face it, with an injured Malkin the Penguins needed everyone else to remain healthy, get Crosby back and bring in the players that GM Ray Shero did at the trade deadline to have any shot at a Cup run. Just having two of those three things happen isn’t enough. The Penguins’ three wins in their last eleven games, all in overtime or a shootout, should be evidence enough that the Penguins don’t have what it takes to make a serious run without their captain.
But if you need more evidence, take a quick look at pretty much all of the past Stanley Cup champions and you will find one thing in common – star power. Whether it was Marian Hossa and Jonathan Toews last year, Teemu Selanne, Chris Pronger, Eric Staal, and the host of Red Wings stars before that, pretty much all of your former Stanley Cup champions featured superstars in their line-up. Even the New Jersey Devils Stanley Cup teams that were powered by Martin Brodeur and their defensive system featured offensive stars such as Patrik Elias and Jason Arnott, among others. Penguins fans should know this all too well after witnessing Crosby and Malkin combine for 67 points during the Stanley Cup run two years ago and the host of stars on the early 90’s Cup teams.
The importance of having star players cannot be understated. Unfortunately for the Penguins, the list of star players on their roster is quite small without Crosby and Malkin on the ice. Could the Penguins steal a first round series without Crosby? Sure. It would take a great defensive effort and Marc-Andre Fleury standing on his head to get it done, but winning four out of seven games is doable. Winning 16 games during the most grueling postseason in professional sports without a reliable scoring threat and go-to player? Not going to happen. Penguins’ fans should continue to cross their fingers for Crosby’s return if they want to have any real shot at a second title in three years.
Sorry folks, I do not mean to burst any bubbles but if Sidney Crosby is unable to return from the post-concussion syndromes that are plaguing him, the Penguins have about as much chance to win the Stanley Cup as Charlie Sheen does of becoming our next president. Since Crosby’s last game on January 5th, the Penguins have averaged 2.26 goals per game. That would be the second worst average in the league over the full season putting the Penguins in the company of cellar dwellers Ottawa and New Jersey. What’s worse is that number drops to 2.13 goals per game in the games the Penguins have played without Crosby and Malkin. You can’t win many games, let alone 16 in the Stanley Cup playoffs, without being able to put the puck behind the opposing goalie at least once in a while.
It is true that the Penguins have been dealing with other injuries as well, including those to forwards Chris Kunitz and Mark Letestu, and have added Alexei Kovalev and James Neal to beef up the scoring, but the four of them on their best days cannot replace the production lost without Crosby in the line-up. Let’s face it, with an injured Malkin the Penguins needed everyone else to remain healthy, get Crosby back and bring in the players that GM Ray Shero did at the trade deadline to have any shot at a Cup run. Just having two of those three things happen isn’t enough. The Penguins’ three wins in their last eleven games, all in overtime or a shootout, should be evidence enough that the Penguins don’t have what it takes to make a serious run without their captain.
But if you need more evidence, take a quick look at pretty much all of the past Stanley Cup champions and you will find one thing in common – star power. Whether it was Marian Hossa and Jonathan Toews last year, Teemu Selanne, Chris Pronger, Eric Staal, and the host of Red Wings stars before that, pretty much all of your former Stanley Cup champions featured superstars in their line-up. Even the New Jersey Devils Stanley Cup teams that were powered by Martin Brodeur and their defensive system featured offensive stars such as Patrik Elias and Jason Arnott, among others. Penguins fans should know this all too well after witnessing Crosby and Malkin combine for 67 points during the Stanley Cup run two years ago and the host of stars on the early 90’s Cup teams.
The importance of having star players cannot be understated. Unfortunately for the Penguins, the list of star players on their roster is quite small without Crosby and Malkin on the ice. Could the Penguins steal a first round series without Crosby? Sure. It would take a great defensive effort and Marc-Andre Fleury standing on his head to get it done, but winning four out of seven games is doable. Winning 16 games during the most grueling postseason in professional sports without a reliable scoring threat and go-to player? Not going to happen. Penguins’ fans should continue to cross their fingers for Crosby’s return if they want to have any real shot at a second title in three years.
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