National Title Contenders

Late last week I was halfway paying attention to a college basketball post-game show on ESPNU when they started going over the qualifications, for lack of a better word, needed for a team to win the national championship. Among their qualifications; the team had to have a scoring margin greater than ten points, have at least a 10-game winning streak at some point during the season and finally they must have been ranked in the top 10 to begin the season. Those qualifications narrowed the list of title contenders for this year to Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh and Purdue.

The hosts of the show said that the last four national champions all fit these criteria. While the sample size associated with these qualifications is pretty much meaningless, it did get me to thinking about which teams are legitimate national title contenders. Taking a quick look at this week’s rankings, I see seven teams with legitimate national title aspirations, another three or four teams that have an outside shot, and with no disrespect to BYU and San Diego State, a few teams that have no shot despite their lofty ranking.

Let’s take a quick look at the teams with legitimate national title hopes and rank them on a 1-10 scale for their likelihood of actually cutting down the nets come the first Monday in April. For comparisons sake on our 1-10 scale, a 1 can be compared to the 1997 Arizona team led by Mike Bibby and Miles Simon (yes, I just wanted to get people reminiscing on that team), the most surprising of the last 15 or so national champions and 10 being 2007 Florida, the most favored champion in recent history entering the tournament.

Ohio State – Anyone who saw Ohio St. dismantle Wisconsin on Sunday saw what was probably the most complete and well-played game that any team has played all season. The Buckeyes have a star in Jared Sullinger on the block, solid shooters around him, a very solid backcourt and experience with David Lighty, William Buford and Jon Diebler; pretty much all of the ingredients needed to win a national title. Ohio State’s one flaw is their lack of depth as they basically play only six guys, meaning Sullinger must stay out of foul trouble and the Buckeyes can’t afford an injury along the way. No team in college basketball is as good or as complete as that 2007 Florida team, but the Buckeyes at their best are the best team in college basketball this season. National Title Ranking: 8.

Kansas – If there is a team out there who can challenge Ohio State at its best it’s the Jayhawks. Kansas has it all; size, speed, shooting, inside scoring, depth, coaching. In my opinion, Kansas has the most well-rounded roster in college basketball in terms of team dynamics. The star power is also there with the Morris twins and freshman Josh Selby to make Kansas my co-favorite to win it all. The one question I continue to have with Kansas is their toughness underneath and on defense. National Title Ranking: 8.

Duke – Can’t help but wonder how good this Duke team would be with injured freshman point guard Kyrie Irving but at this point it is probably safe to assume that the super frosh won’t be back. Still, the Blue Devils are plenty capable of making a national title run with plenty of big game experience and two stars in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler leading the way. The stars do need more help from the Plumlee brothers and Andre Dawkins among others, but with the right draw and continued excellence from Smith and Singler, you have to give this team just as good a chance at the outset of the tournament as the team that won the national championship last year. National Title Ranking: 6.

North Carolina – Pretty hard to believe that the Tar Heels are this high on the list after a very rough start to the season but North Carolina has played as well as any team in America over the past month or so. UNC’s ascension began with the insertion of Kendall Marshall at the point guard position and watching the kid play it is no wonder. Marshall allows Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller and the rest of the Hells to play within their comfort zones with his incredible passing and fantastic game management skills. In a normal year, this is probably only a fringe national title contender but in an overall down season, the Tar Heels have as good as shot any team outside of Columbus, OH or Lawrence, KS. National Title Ranking: 6.

Pittsburgh – Pitt is every bit as talented as the two teams I rank above them on this list but until the Panthers get over their post-season hump I just can’t put them on equal terms with Duke and North Carolina. I think the key for the Panthers is Brad Wannamaker’s penetrating ability. The Panthers need Wannamaker to create easy scoring opportunities on the inside and open looks on the outside for Ashton Gibbs to be a dynamic offensive team. Without Wannamaker creating these easy scoring opportunities, the Panthers are too reliant on their offensive rebounding and physicality, something that could haunt them if they run into the wrong officiating crew in the tourney. Anything less than a Final Four run, however, would be a disappointment for this team. National Title Ranking: 5.

Purdue – No team in the country has an inside-outside duo like the Boilermakers do with JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. The qualifications listed at the beginning of this column also represent that this team’s resume is much better than many may have anticipated. The question for Purdue is if it has enough around its two dynamic players to really make a splash. National Title Ranking: 3.

Texas – Texas defends as well as any team in the nation, pounds the glass and plays a physical brand of basketball that most teams cannot rival. Texas’ recent problems have been centered around failing to get the ball inside and relying on too many perimeter shots. If you would have asked me two or three weeks ago this ranking would have been much higher but it is never a good sign when you are not playing well heading into March. Of all the teams on this list, however, a run in the Big 12 tournament would most dramatically boost their stock heading into the Big Dance in my mind. If Texas were to win or make it to the conference tournament finals, I would probably put them back up to the Pitt level but for now: National Title Ranking: 3.

Those are the seven true national title contenders I see. Other teams that could win it that wouldn’t be a total shock include Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida (who is better than people realize) and a true darkhorse in Georgetown if Chris Wright can get healthy in time for the tournament. But if recent history tells us anything, expect the national champion to come from the group of seven I have ranked above. Remember that when filling out your brackets next week.