Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Trading Season Has Begun; Good Day for Buccos Despite Inactivity

The baseball trading has begun and if you are a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, today was a good day. Carlos Beltran was traded to the San Francisco Giants despite being linked with the Milwaukee Brewers, among other teams, and the Cardinals made the first ever “go for it” trade that made their team worse now, and in the future.

The first trade of the day was a three-teamer between the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. Let’s just say the American League teams did fine in this one. Toronto received Colby Rasmus, the 24-year-old outfielder that is easily the best asset in the deal, from the Cards and utility man Mark Teahen from the White Sox as well as three no-name pitchers. For Rasmus, the Cardinals received right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and outfielder Corey Patterson as well as two relievers and some other considerations such as cash and three players to be named later. The White Sox ended up with reliever Jason Frasor and pitching prospect Zach Stewart.

Rasmus was clearly the best player in this trade but for whatever reason was unable to get along with Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa and his coaching staff and they felt the need to move him. Not only is Rasmus a pretty decent player already, his skills and young age have had scouts and baseball insiders drooling over him for years. Fans of other National League Central teams have to be extremely happy about his departure, and the fact that he could be replaced with Corey Patterson! Edwin Jackson is a hard-throwing righty with a no-hitter during his time with the Diamondbacks but his career ERA of 4.53 and extremely high walk rate aren’t sending fear through the NL Central.

Toronto’s incentive in the trade was clearly acquiring the young Rasmus and the potential he possesses. The Blue Jays have done a tremendous job acquiring assets in recent years - it’s just a shame they have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox, meanwhile, pick up a good bullpen arm and a pretty good pitching prospect in Stewart while saving some money in the meantime.

The other trade that has either gone down or soon will go down is Carlos Beltran heading west to the San Francisco Giants for some kind of package that includes pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. As part of the trade the Mets are reported to be picking up $4 million of the remaining $6.5 million owed to Beltran, with this being the final year of his contract. Beltran is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Giants who have been desperate for a middle of the order bat since Buster Posey’s injury. The Giants have plenty of pitching and giving up a prospect, grant it a darn-good one, is well worth the gamble for a team trying to win back-to-back World Series titles. The Mets were willing to eat much of the money owed to Beltran in order to pick up a premium prospect in a trade and they couldn’t have done much better than Wheeler who is ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball according to Keith Law’s latest rankings. The trade is a win for both teams as the Giants add a big piece to their title defense while the Mets pick up a legitimate starting pitching prospect for the future for a player they were likely to lose at the end of the season.

QB Dominoes Starting to Fall in the NFL

The QB dominoes are starting to fall in the NFL:

It looks as though the Minnesota Vikings are going to land QB Donovan McNabb. Those that are long-time readers of the blog know my respect and appreciation for McNabb but he certainly seemed to have lost something last year in Washington. Can a move to the Twin Cities revitalize his career? It looks like we are about to find out. I like the move on the Vikings behalf as they have enough talent and a veteran laden roster to make another run at the Super Bowl. Intrusting the starting role to a rookie would not have worked, nor gone over well with the veteran roster. If McNabb can be even close to the player he was in Philadelphia, Minnesota will be a tough out in the NFC. I do think the Vikings need to supplement this move by resigning WR Sidney Rice. An offense with Rice, Harvin, Peterson and Shiancoe surrounding McNabb sounds awfully imposing on defenses.

Similar to Minnesota, the Tennessee Titans were looking for a veteran quarterback to lead their offense while their first round draft choice learns from the sidelines. They, too, look like they have found their man in Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is 36-years-old and it looked like he lost some zip on his ball last year in Seattle but he is still a smart quarterback and a good team leader that should help Jake Locker learn and grow for a year. Overall, I’m not a big fan of this signing but it accomplishes the objective for the Titans who are probably on the outside looking in of the loaded AFC playoff bubble anyhow.

Crazy Week in Sports; Steelers Sign Ike

This marks a crazy week in sports as we try to track the rumors and realities of the Major League Baseball trade deadline as well as the free agent frenzy taking place in the NFL. We would need to take a vacation to track all of the wheeling and dealings going on in both leagues right now. With that in mind, instead of writing a long article on what may or may not happen this week around the leagues, I will post short updates and comments as major trades go down in baseball and major signings and/or trades happen in the NFL.

The biggest news to occur so far in Pittsburgh is the Steelers resigning (or more appropriately reaching an agreement) with cornerback Ike Taylor. Taylor is instrumental to the Steelers defense as their top cover corner and was unanimously considered the Steelers top free agent priority. The Steelers are also a perfect fit for Taylor’s physical style and the two sides were both better off being able to work out a deal. With Taylor’s signing in place, the Steelers are poised to have one of, if not the best defense in the NFL once again. The lockout and lack of preparation time should also be an advantage to the Steelers veteran defense who were probably better served by the time off than the lack of minicamps and meetings.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Excitement Real but Pirates Need Alvarez

I was on vacation last week in Myrtle Beach, SC, a popular relaxation destination for many Pittsburghers, where the excitement over the Buccos was everywhere. There are many years when my family takes the voyage down to Myrtle Beach only it usually falls in early June where by then the Pirates have normally been eliminated from contention already. Being there in July, with the Pirates claiming a share of first place, only made it sweeter to see the excitement and hope for Pittsburgh Pirates fans for the first time in what seems like eternity.

With this excitement both in Pittsburgh and from Pirates fans around the country in mind, I decided to take an extended lunch yesterday to check out your first place Buccos in action against the Cincinnati Reds. Besides the general importance of the game and the Pirates looking to complete a sweep, it was an opportunity to see a great pitching match-up in Jeff Karstens, with his 2nd best NL ERA, going up against Johnny Cueto and his would be NL best ERA had he pitched enough innings.

I came away from the game with two thoughts, both already somewhat swirling around in my head but only confirmed further by being in attendance. First, the excitement and enthusiasm for these Buccos is real and hardcore. You got the sense of this from watching on TV during the Boston and Philadelphia series, and even the Cubs and Astros series before the break, but to see a crowd of 25,000+ on a weekday afternoon in full support of these Buccos was fantastic. I have been to many of these early afternoon games in the past when you could count the number of fans in the lower levels of the stadium.

Secondly, the Pirates desperately need Pedro Alvarez back in the line-up. I have no idea why he is still in AAA, we know that the guy can hit minor league pitching, it’s time to bring him back up to the majors, plug him in at third base and in the clean-up spot and see what he can do. No offense to Chase D’Arnaud, he’s young and needs more time to develop, but he has been awful during his time in Pittsburgh. I cannot even fathom why Clint Hurdle continues to bat him in the #2 spot in the order. Hurdle is giving away valuable and critical at-bats in the middle of a pennant race. D’Arnaud single-handedly cost the Buccos the game yesterday with two atrocious errors. He also came to bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and hit a weak fly ball to right on the first pitch in the third and then later flew out to left with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in the seventh inning (this after a failed bunt attempt by Alex Presley, a horrible bunt but an even worse decision to have him bunting there). One game is one game, but D’Arnaud has been terrible his entire time in the big leagues with the exception of a fine defensive play here or there. The 24-year-old shortstop prospect is batting .225 with an OPS of .542. He has 5 extra base hits in 89 at-bats and zero home runs. He also has 7 errors in 21 games played. For the love of Pirates fans, please send this kid back to AAA.

Meanwhile, despite the terrible start Pedro Alvarez got off to this season, he still seems like Babe Ruth compared to the punch and judy hitters the Pirates have been running out there at third base in his absence. Between D’Arnaud mentioned above, Josh Harrison (.576 OPS) and Brandon Wood (.642 OPS) the Pirates third basemen have been another empty spot in a line-up that already has too many deficiencies. Alvarez hit 16 HRs last year in 347 Abs, a pace that would put him in line to be a 30 HR guy despite a tough transition period to the Major Leagues. It is time the Pirates put their faith back in the top prospect they have had since Chad Hermansen and see what the kid can do. We know he can hit AAA pitching where he is hitting .340 with an OPS over .900 in 14 games during his rehab assignment. It is time the Pirates plug him into the #4 spot in a line-up that is dying for an influx of power. Putting Pedro #4 would allow Walker and McCutchen to move up a spot in the order, where they should be anyhow, and give the Pirates a line-up that at least resembles what a Major League line-up should look like.

I am not sure how Alvarez will respond to a recall to the Pirates. His track record tells us that he is a slow-starter which gives me great reason for optimism and I saw enough of the young third-baseman last year to know that at a minimum he is going to hit some home-runs. Whether he develops into a great player will probably depend on his ability to put the ball in play but again, I think we are talking about a guy who is going to hit 30 home runs per season and possibly more. Whether that comes with a .230 batting average or a .270 average will ultimately determine how good of a player he is, but even the poor end of Alvarez’ projected production would be a major upgrade to this Pittsburgh Pirates line-up. It is time the Pirates recall Alvarez and plug him into his normal spot at third. Any hope at a continued run at the division is dependent on it.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Andrew McCutchen, the All-Star

Andrew McCutchen, much like many of the Pirates’ opponents who have hit one in the gap this year, was robbed of his first All-Star appearance. I am not the first to write this and I won’t be the last but I had to comment on the fact that I find it absolutely ridiculous that “Cutch” is not on the NL All-Star roster.

Personally, I think the Pirates center fielder should be starting the game but I was OK with the fact that Matt Kemp, Lance Berkman and Ryan Braun were voted starters. All are having fantastic years and much of the fan voting was done before McCutchen’s recent tear. That being said, McCutchen has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement player) in the National League, trailing only Kemp in that metric. Braun is third, Berkman is tenth…again I think McCutchen should be starting, but the fact that he is not even on the team is beyond comprehension. As Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle said, and I am paraphrasing, “the players screwed up, NL Manager Bruce Bochy screwed up and MLB screwed up”.

The fact that McCutchen is not even on the “final five” list to be voted into the game by the fans is enough to justify firing whoever puts that list together. How is the second best player in the National League not even included on a list of players that includes Ian Kennedy and Michael Morse? Most casual fans don’t even know who those guys play for. (Kennedy is a pitcher for the Diamondbacks and Morse is an outfielder for the Nationals for those that didn’t know.) McCutchen is being talked about nationally as a young, exciting and fantastic player that will soon be mentioned among the top players in baseball for years to come. For MLB to leave him out of this year’s contest does a disservice for baseball fans around the country.

McCutchen’s absence once again merits a closer look at how these teams are constructed. To be honest, the fans actually do the best job. Sure, too many Yankees and Red Sox dominate the voting but for the most part those guys deserve it and the fans get it right. With the exception of Derek Jeter, who is in for the lifetime achievement award, it is hard to find fault with any of the starters for this year’s contest. The players and the respective teams’ managers choose the rest of the rosters and once again there is plenty of room for disagreement. The players have loyalties and frankly don’t care all that much about how other players are performing. Managers have loyalties to their own players, former players and other managers around the league and are often partial to those loyalties. In the end, it is the fans who get cheated by not getting the opportunity to see the best players in the game on the field.

The good news is that ultimately All-Star games and All-Star appearances don’t really matter. Andrew McCutchen is going to make plenty of All-Star appearances in his career beginning next season in all likelihood. If anything, McCutchen’s snub this year may have garnered him more attention nationally than if he were to be on the team, especially if he had been the Pirates’ lone participant. (This is no slight at Joel Hanrahan who absolutely should be on the team as well.) McCutchen is quickly becoming one of the league’s best players and will soon be recognized for it. Who knows, if the Pirates keep playing this well McCutchen could end up on the short list of MVP candidates by season’s end. That would sure make the All-Star game voters feel stupid because Andrew McCutchen is obviously an All-Star.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Huntington Faces Tough Decisions

As we approach the midpoint of the baseball season and with the trade deadline less than a month away, Pirates management and General Manager Neal Huntington have a very interesting decision on their hands. The Pirates sit at 41-39, only 2 games out of first place in the NL Central and only one game back in the loss column. This is the Pirates best record through 80 games since the 18 year losing streak began and fans are excited. No doubt that the temptation is there for Huntington to make a trade to improve this ballclub and make a run at their first winning season and maybe even an outside shot at contention in nearly two decades.

Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.

It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.

While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.

At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.

As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.

I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.