You may have noticed that I have not talked much about the NFL on the blog lately and for good reason. It is impossible to talk about the NFL without getting into the current labor dispute and quite frankly, I don’t care about it. We are talking about billionaires, multi-millionaires and millionaires fighting over how to split up a $9 billion revenue pie while playing in publicly funded stadiums and charging ridiculous prices to fans all while being protected by antitrust laws that go against every business principle the United States was founded upon. See, I had to go there didn’t I?!?
Both the owners and players have a ton to lose by going through the legal system (the NFL is already learning this the hard way) and by September this will be much ado about nothing. The season will go on, there’s about $9 billion reasons why after the NFL lost its case trying to collect from the TV networks during the lockout, and by the second or third week of the season we will have all forgot about this dumb lockout.
To be honest, I have actually enjoyed the relatively little news coming from the NFL this offseason. It allowed fans everywhere to enjoy other sports without enduring the latest Brett Favre comeback update or veteran, crappy linebacker A signed with non-playoff team B, or whatever stories and rumors that usually get gobbled up by the millions of intense football fans around the country. It is now the end of April, however, and the NFL Draft is upon us. March Madness is over, the NBA and NHL playoffs are nearing their midpoint and training camp is just a little over two months away. It is time to start talking some football again.
So let’s quit talking about the off-field activity and dive into the draft. Last year I spent a ton of time putting together a mock draft and while I enjoyed doing it and got a lot of positive feedback on the piece, I realized once the draft began how largely worthless it became. This year, with no free agency and teams still having lots of line-up needs as a result, it seemed senseless to put together a mock draft when there were just so many possibilities for every team. Besides, there are a million mock drafts out there on the internet and each one is more wrong than the last. So this year I decided to do a recap on the draft, pick-by-pick, and let you know what I thought about last night’s 1st round proceedings. This format should provide some insight on each player, each team and really provide a general overview of the NFL as we head into next season. That is the hope anyways…so here we go!
1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB Auburn – Say what you want about Newton but the guy has a tremendous upside. He may be a longshot to reach that upside, and there is probably no middle ground with him, but I would still rather take that chance than draft one of the other QBs from the remainder of this, in my opinion, awful QB class. Would I have taken Newton 1st overall? Heck no, mostly because the price attached to taking such a risk. But I haven’t had the benefit that the Panthers did in researching, interviewing and studying Newton on and off the field. The Panthers also have the benefit of a strong running game and a new coach that should allow him to ease into the position. The key for the Panthers will be to build an offense around his strengths.
2. Denver Broncos – Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M – Miller is a tremendous physical specimen and a fantastic pass rusher from the outside but this pick puzzled me a bit. Most thought Miller was more of a prototypical 4-3 defensive end who could get after the QB. The Broncos are switching to a 3-4 defense this year and already have a star player in Elvis Dumervil who fits the role of edge rusher from the outside linebacker position, the position most assume Miller will play as well. John Elway may have gone with the best player available approach, a strategy I usually agree with, but in this instance I think Marcell Dareus made more since. One thing is for sure, however, and that is the Broncos desire to get after the quarterback this year on the defensive side of the ball.
3. Buffalo Bills – Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama – Speaking of Dareus, it didn’t take long for the Bills to snatch him up after Denver passed. The Bills have a ton of holes on both sides of the ball but they address their biggest concern with Dareus and that is improving the league’s worst defense against the run last year.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR Georgia – Green was the best player in this draft in my opinion. He is fast, runs good patterns, catches everything and can run after the catch. With TO moving on and Ochocinco most likely doing the same, the Bengals can begin to build their new-look offense around Green. The question now becomes who will be the guy to get him the ball? Rumors have the Bengals trying to move up to draft TCU QB Andy Dalton in the 2nd round. I doubt he is the answer but is worth the risk of a second round pick if they do not have to give up too much.
5. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Peterson, CB LSU – Great pick by the Cardinals here. They did not particularly need to address a mediocre secondary but did so by getting the best defensive player and best athlete in the draft. Peterson should be able to immediately bolster the Cardinals pass defense and will most likely make a splash in their return game as well. If the Cards can acquire a veteran QB to get the ball out to Fitzgerald they could quickly become the frontrunners in the NFC West again.
6. Atlanta Falcons – Julio Jones, WR Alabama – The Falcons certainly wanted a premier WR to put opposite of Roddy White, that’s for sure. The Falcons gave up a ton to move up 21 spots and take Jones, a physical WR who is great in run and catch situations and should be a great compliment to White. I like the move by the Falcons who need quality at this point of their team building, not quantity, and Jones could be the player needed to push them over the hump in the NFC. For Cleveland, I thought the trade was fantastic. The Browns have a ton of holes to fill and picking up a 2nd and 4th rounder this year and a 1st and 4th next year in addition to the 27th pick and the Brownies could easily have shortened their rebuilding project by a substantial margin.
7. San Francisco 49ers – Aldon Smith, DE Missouri – Jim Harbaugh is the coach closest to the college game having coached at Stanford last year and Harbaugh agrees with me that no QB in this class should be labeled a “franchise” guy. Desperate for a franchise QB, the Niners passed on the position to take Smith, a guy that I did not particularly like in this spot. Smith is a guy who can get after the quarterback and that is what they were targeting but I thought there were a number of better players on the board at this point. Maybe Harbaugh is trying to tank this year with Alex Smith at QB so he can land his protégé Andrew Luck in next year’s draft.
8. Tennessee Titans – Jake Locker, QB Washington – Terrible reach #1 on the night and a special thank you from all other AFC South fans to Jeff Fisher for stepping down as coach. I guess all you need to be considered a franchise quarterback in the minds of NFL personnel at this point is to “elevate” your program to a 6-6 record and an appearance in some crappy bowl game in your fourth year as the starter.
Quick tangent: Does Jon Gruden ever say anything negative? Check that, does he ever say anything negative about players or teams that he might want to coach for at some point in the future? Seriously, I never hear Gruden criticize a player or team and every time I hear his analysis I wonder how that guy was ever a good coach. He really is the next coming of John Madden. I mention him here because he was profusely defending Locker as a quarterback. After Kiper hit him with all the statistical reasons that Locker was a bum, including his extremely low completion percentage, Gruden threw this gem at him, “You guys can have your stats. He threw the ball away 66 times last year.”
9. Dallas Cowboys, Tyron Smith, OT USC – Very solid pick from the Cowboys here who needed to beef up their protection for Tony Romo. Smith is a phenomenal athlete for a tackle but probably has to put on a few pounds to be a true impact player at the left tackle position. Still, Smith is a very good player that addresses a big area of need for the Cowboys and he should be able to come in and contribute right away.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri – I am not sure what to make of this pick. I guess I like Gabbert more than any other QB in this class besides Newton and at number 10 he’s not a terrible value but the Jaguars did have to give up their second round pick to get him. My best guess is that Gabbert becomes no better of a pro than the Jags’ current QB, David Garrard. Still, not a bad risk at this point since the Missouri product does have the size, arm and athleticism to be a very good NFL quarterback.
11. Houston Texans – J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin – Watt was a good player in college and will be a good player in the NFL. Nothing exciting about this pick but it was a good one for Houston as Watt is a good fit to play defensive end as the Texans transition to the 3-4 defense.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder, QB Florida St. – Terrible reach #2 on the evening! I am not even sure Ponder was the best QB on his FSU team last year. For a team that is probably not that far removed from Super Bowl contention, I really do not understand this pick. Maybe the plan is to still bring in a veteran quarterback and allow Ponder to grow under that guy but I still don’t see a very high upside for this kid. Any of the following three picks would have made a whole lot more sense to me for Minnesota.
13. Detroit Lions – Nick Fairley, DT Auburn – Wow, the Lions had to be extremely pleased to see Fairley on the board this late despite the defensive line already being an area of strength for the team. When the draft process began, you know when the actual football games were being played, Fairley was heavily considered the best player in the draft. The questions surrounding Fairley’s work ethic and motor should be moot as he plays next to Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch, two relentless workers and great leaders. The Lions’ defensive line has the chance to be one of the best individual units in football next year with Fairley’s addition.
14. St. Louis Rams – Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina – Another tremendous value pick here for the Rams. Quinn did not play last year because of suspension but if he had many figured him to have been a possible top 5 pick. The Rams did not particularly need a defensive end but with the addition of Quinn on the opposite side of Chris Long the Rams, much like the Lions, could be tremendous up front on the defensive side of the football.
15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey, OC Florida – From all of the reading I did leading up to the draft it doesn’t sound like Maurkice’s little brother would have went this high if he had a different last name. That being said, the other Pouncey is a good prospect and fills a position of need for the Miami Dolphins as they try to improve the interior of their offensive line. Pouncey’s ability to play center or guard should also allow the Dolphins some flexibility on how they construct that o-line.
16. Washington Redskins – Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue – Kerrigan was a tremendously productive player as a defensive end in college but will switch to OLB in the 3-4 for the Redskins. I suspect Kerrigan will be a good player for the Redskins but will probably never be elite. For a team with a lot of holes though, he is more of a sure thing and a good pick.
17. New England Patriots – Nate Solder, OT Colorado – For the way scouts talked about Solder and cornerback Jimmy Smith from Colorado it makes you wonder why the Buffaloes were so terrible. Solder is a solid pick for the Patriots as they try to rebuild an aging offensive line and should provide some flexibility with his ability to play both left and right tackle. The Patriots biggest concern going forward should be how to keep Tom Brady standing up.
18. San Diego Chargers – Corey Liuget, DT Illinois – Another reach for me, although this was an area of need for the Chargers as Liuget will most likely play defensive end in the Chargers scheme. Liuget was a productive player in college but never stood out for me as a star. He has a nonstop motor and should be a decent player for the Chargers, although I’m not sure decent is the goal for a first round pick.
19. New York Giants - Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska - With a number of teams seemingly reaching for quarterbacks or other positions a few others were able to take great advantage. The Giants were one of those landing Amukamara, who many had rated as a top 10 talent. Both Giants’ starting corners are free agents after the 2011 season so Prince gives the Giants insurance in case one should bolt and playing in the NFC East a team can never have enough corners anyhow. Tremendous pick here for the G-Men.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa – Another Big Ten defensive lineman, the fourth (and third defensive end) in the last ten picks. Clayborn is a playmaker despite suffering from a disease that effects the use of his right arm and should fit in nicely at defensive end for Tampa’s Cover 2 scheme.
21. Cleveland Browns – Phil Taylor, DT Baylor – The Browns gave up a third round pick to the Chiefs to move up six spots and select Taylor, the best pure nose tackle in the draft. In what seems to be a theme around the league the Browns look like they are also moving towards a 3-4 defensive scheme. Taylor is a big, nasty, in the trenches type of player who should be a good fit anchoring the Browns defensive line.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College – Much like the Patriots, the Colts primary goal going forward has to be keeping Peyton Manning on his feet. Castonzo is a polished prospect that will most likely come in and start right away.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Danny Watkins, OG Baylor – Typical Eagles pick here and a good one. Watkins is 26-years-old after spending a few years away from football so he is more mature than your typical rookie and he should come in and start right away. Nobody drafts up front better than Andy Reid and company and I see no reason why this pick should be any different. The Eagles also need a corner but my guess is that they are heavily involved in the Nnamdi Asomugha bidding war whenever the free agency period starts.
24. New Orleans Saints – Cameron Jordan, DE California – Jordan fills a critical need for the Saints at defensive end and will be counted on to provide pressure on opposing QBs. We know the Saints are set on the offensive side of the ball and Jordan should help where it is needed most.
25. Seattle Seahawks – James Carpenter, OG Alabama – This is not the flashy pick that many expected from the Seahawks but it is a good pick and should help sure up the Hawks’ offensive line. Seattle is probably in the market for a quarterback somewhere in the draft and can probably pick up a Ryan Mallett, Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick in the second round, all guys who offer as much upside (or downside) as the guys who went much, much earlier.
26. Kansas City Chiefs – Jonathan Baldwin, WR Pitt – This is where the weirdness started as the Bears and Ravens are reported to have had a trade in place and the Bears never called into the league offices to confirm. Time elapsed and the Ravens were skipped by the Chiefs for the 26th pick where they took the Pitt wide out. Baldwin has some question marks surrounding him but he is a tremendous athlete, big and has great ball skills. He should fit in well across from Dwayne Bowe as the Chiefs deep-ball threat, if Cassel can throw the ball far enough that is.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado – The Ravens were probably a little perturbed at the Bears with the botched trade as I am guessing they could have still landed Smith with the 29th selection and picked up a fourth rounder in the process but at least they still landed their guy. Many consider Smith the second best corner in this draft behind Peterson and the only reason he slipped was character concerns. I am not as high on Smith but for the 27th pick it is hard to argue with the value and the Ravens were desperate for corner help.
28. New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram, RB Alabama – The Patriots traded back in the draft to pick up extra picks? No way! I do like the deal on both ends, however, as the Patriots pick up an extra first rounder next year while sliding back about 28 spots while the Saints land their heir apparent at running back. Ingram’s versatility and ability to catch the ball will be a perfect fit in Sean Payton’s attack and probably signals the end of the Reggie Bush era in ‘Nawlins.
29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin – The Bears gave up 56 sacks last year and despite Mike Martz’ scheme and Jay Cutler’s propensity to hold on to the ball too long, an upgrade on the offensive line was needed. Carimi should be a good player at right tackle for the Bears and fills their biggest need along the offensive line. He probably won’t be a pro-bowler but he should be a good player in this league for a long time.
30. New York Jets - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE Temple – The Jets had to be thrilled to land Wilkerson this late in the first round and the Temple product will be expected to come in and provide help on the Jets’ aging defensive line immediately. The Jets, Steelers and Packers all got great values at the end of the first round due to so many reaches above them. It is no wonder that the same teams are competing for championships year in and year out.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St. – Ironhead Heyward’s son is an incredible fit for the Steelers and a real find at the end of the first round. Heyward was an extremely productive player and often the star on the Buckeyes defense in his four years in Columbus and is the prototype to play defensive end in the 3-4. This may signal, however, that the Steelers do not expect much from the return of Aaron Smith. If Smith does return, the Steelers have a pretty scary two-deep rotation for the next year or two on the defensive line and have their anchors at defensive end in Ziggy Hood and Heyward for years to come. Now the Steelers must address their depth at corner and on the offensive line in the next couple of rounds.
32. Green Bay Packers – Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State – The Packers, much like the Steelers, do not have many holes to fill as they are fresh off their Super Bowl title and have 16 guys returning from injured reserve. One place they did need to sure up, and begin planning for the future, was on the offensive line. The Pack did that with Sherrod who, along with their first round pick last year in Brian Bulaga, could form the bookends for the Packers’ offensive line for the next decade.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Penguins Blow Opportunities, Series
There is nothing more unpredictable in sports than a game seven in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year we watched in shock as the Montreal Canadiens took it to the Penguins on their home ice in a series where most thought Pittsburgh had the superior team. Last night we had to sit there in horror as the Penguins dominated puck possession, scoring chances and physical play but couldn’t get a single puck in the back of the net on their way to a 1-0 shutout loss. With or without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, anything can happen in a game seven. That is why it was so disappointing to see the Penguins blow chances in games five and six with a chance to close out Tampa Bay. Ultimately the series was lost by the Penguins inability to score goals, something I have been cautioning about for weeks now, as they scored only 14 goals in seven games. Looking back, however, it was the Penguins failed opportunities in games five and six and their failed opportunities on all but one of their 30 something power plays during the series that cost the Penguins a chance to move forward even without number 87 on the ice.
I predicted before the series that the Penguins would win in six. I thought they could get past the first round based on the goaltending match-up and their superior defense. I cautioned, however, that if this series went to seven that the Pens could be in trouble without a star to rely on. This is almost exactly what happened last night. Despite dominating the puck for most of the game and getting a solid, if not great, performance from Marc-Andre Fleury, the Penguins couldn’t get a single shot behind Lightning goaltender Dwayne Roloson. This year, without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it was imperative for the Penguins to avoid a game seven against a team full of superstars like Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steven Stamkos, among others. Sure it was none of the Lightning stars who scored the only goal in game seven, rather it was grinder Sean Bergenheim, but it was the failure of the Penguins to produce a goal whether at even strength or on any of their five power plays. Needless to say, the Penguins could have used a guy they could have relied upon for offense.
The good news is that unlike most playoff losses that begin the “what happened” discussions and “what needs to be done for next year” questions, this one is pretty easy to explain and the pieces are already in place to make the Penguins one of the top Cup favorites for next year. Crosby and Malkin will be back and probably hungrier than ever. Fleury, Staal, Orpik, Letang, Neal, Martin, Michalek, Kunitz and Kennedy are all signed through next year and in most cases a couple of years beyond. Sure, General Manager Ray Shero has some decisions to make on role players such as Max Talbot and if he should trade Matt Cooke, but based on his track record we can expect Shero to make the best of those decisions. The Penguins fatal flaw this year was their inability to score goals. That is something that is pretty easily remedied by plugging two of the world’s best players back in the line-up. It is a sad day for Penguins fans, mostly because of the blown opportunities that the Penguins had in the series, but there is a lot to look forward to next year and beyond.
I predicted before the series that the Penguins would win in six. I thought they could get past the first round based on the goaltending match-up and their superior defense. I cautioned, however, that if this series went to seven that the Pens could be in trouble without a star to rely on. This is almost exactly what happened last night. Despite dominating the puck for most of the game and getting a solid, if not great, performance from Marc-Andre Fleury, the Penguins couldn’t get a single shot behind Lightning goaltender Dwayne Roloson. This year, without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it was imperative for the Penguins to avoid a game seven against a team full of superstars like Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steven Stamkos, among others. Sure it was none of the Lightning stars who scored the only goal in game seven, rather it was grinder Sean Bergenheim, but it was the failure of the Penguins to produce a goal whether at even strength or on any of their five power plays. Needless to say, the Penguins could have used a guy they could have relied upon for offense.
The good news is that unlike most playoff losses that begin the “what happened” discussions and “what needs to be done for next year” questions, this one is pretty easy to explain and the pieces are already in place to make the Penguins one of the top Cup favorites for next year. Crosby and Malkin will be back and probably hungrier than ever. Fleury, Staal, Orpik, Letang, Neal, Martin, Michalek, Kunitz and Kennedy are all signed through next year and in most cases a couple of years beyond. Sure, General Manager Ray Shero has some decisions to make on role players such as Max Talbot and if he should trade Matt Cooke, but based on his track record we can expect Shero to make the best of those decisions. The Penguins fatal flaw this year was their inability to score goals. That is something that is pretty easily remedied by plugging two of the world’s best players back in the line-up. It is a sad day for Penguins fans, mostly because of the blown opportunities that the Penguins had in the series, but there is a lot to look forward to next year and beyond.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Catching Up on the Playoffs
Both the NHL and NBA playoffs are in full gear now and while we can start to see who may prevail in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, I think the first round in the NBA is scheduled to end sometime around Memorial Day. In all seriousness, I know the NBA spreads its games out for national TV purposes but come on now…nearly three weeks for the first round to be played out is ridiculous. David Stern and his office need to come up with a better plan for this schedule. Why not use staggered start times like the NHL or NCAA tournament does so that TNT or whoever is covering that night’s games could air the fourth quarter of every game if it is close? There is no way that the Magic-Hawks game on NBATV last night was watched by many households outside of Orlando or Atlanta. Why in the world did they need three days between games one and two? I consider Stern the best commissioner in sports but he needs to shorten the amount of time this first round stretches to keep fans interested and to get to the more juicy match-ups in the later rounds.
Now that we got today’s rant out of the way, here are some other thoughts from around the NBA and NHL playoffs:
NHL
• The Penguins lead their series with the Lighting 2-1 heading into game four tonight despite having the worst special teams play amongst all playoff teams so far. The Pens are 0-15 on the power play and their penalty kill has given up 4 goals on 11 tries (63.7% kill rate), both good for last among the teams still playing. If the Penguins want to continue playing, they better find a way to even this disadvantage out in a hurry.
• There really have been no surprises so far in the NHL playoffs. The only higher seeded teams to trail in their series right now are Anaheim and Boston who are both down 2- 1. Being that these two series were looked at as the most even coming in neither comes as a big surprise and both favorites have plenty of opportunity to come back. The other perceived evenly matched series between Buffalo and Philadelphia has also been close and the difference in Philadelphia’s two games to one lead was inserting backup goalie Brian Boucher in net in the middle of game two. Boucher led the comeback in game two and was the starter in the Flyers’ game three win. All three of these series could easily come down to a game seven.
• Detroit and Vancouver look like the class of the Western Conference, ignoring the Canucks beating last night at the hands of the Blackhawks in what I saw as the defending champions’ last gasp. Detroit goes for the sweep tonight in Phoenix and the Canucks should close out Chicago on home ice tomorrow. If the two should meet in the conference finals it should be an unbelievable series. San Jose was my pick to come out of the Western Conference and the Sharks are up 2-1 on the Kings but they needed overtime in both of their victories and have not inspired a ton of confidence the way they have played against a depleted Los Angeles team.
• If we could skip ahead for a moment and assume the Penguins get past Tampa Bay, - I know, a big assumption right now and a terrible jinx on the Pens! - I think Pens’ fans should be pulling for Philadelphia and Montreal to win their respective series. That would set up the Penguins to play the Flyers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, a series the Penguins could win with or without the return of their captain. I would much rather see Philadelphia and their goaltending situation (not to mention a team that the Pens have owned in the playoffs) than go up against either the Canadiens or the Capitals in the next round. Let’s allow those two teams to beat up on each other for a couple of weeks and have the Penguins take on the winner in the Eastern Conference Finals.
NBA
• In stark contrast to the NHL playoffs, the NBA has been chalk full of surprises with three heavy underdogs taking game one on the road and the other five giving the higher seeded team everything they could handle. While all five home teams have won their game two so far, the Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls and Magic were all put to the test before ultimately pulling out home victories. Only the Heat have shown any semblance of being the vastly superior team in their series. Three more game twos take place tonight with, and this is weird to type, both the Spurs and Lakers trying to even up their respective series.
• The biggest shock among the game one upsets was the Lakers losing at Staples Center against a Hornets team that could more accurately be called “Chris Paul and a bunch of nobodies”. New Orleans’ second best player, David West, is out for the year with a torn ACL and the Hornets relied heavily on Aaron Gray in the post. Yes, that is the same Aaron Gray that some Pitt fans are still wondering if he can even dunk. Paul is an unbelievable player and hopefully those that so quickly wanted to anoint Derrick Rose the best point guard in basketball witnessed Paul’s 33 points - 14 assists- 7 rebounds - 4 steals effort on Sunday but there is really no excuse the Lakers could have for losing this game. An overwhelming favorite to come out of the West for a chance at another three-peat, the Lakers proved that they are more vulnerable than many of us may have thought. I think the loss also opened the eyes of the rest of the Western Conference that this thing really is up for grabs.
• The team that could really be licking their chops is the Oklahoma City Thunder. I know I mentioned them as a dark horse in my playoff preview but nobody else in the Western Conference has the personnel to match-up with either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets and their 10-deep rotation are going to give the Thunder everything they can handle in round one but ultimately I think we end up with a tremendous Western Conference Finals between Ok City and L.A.
• In the East we are still tracking for a fantastic final four of Chicago, Miami, Boston and Orlando. Although, as I said earlier, only the Heat have shown even a glimpse of their tremendous potential through the early parts of round one. It is just a shame that we have to wait another two weeks until the playoffs can really begin in the Eastern Conference in all likelihood.
Now that we got today’s rant out of the way, here are some other thoughts from around the NBA and NHL playoffs:
NHL
• The Penguins lead their series with the Lighting 2-1 heading into game four tonight despite having the worst special teams play amongst all playoff teams so far. The Pens are 0-15 on the power play and their penalty kill has given up 4 goals on 11 tries (63.7% kill rate), both good for last among the teams still playing. If the Penguins want to continue playing, they better find a way to even this disadvantage out in a hurry.
• There really have been no surprises so far in the NHL playoffs. The only higher seeded teams to trail in their series right now are Anaheim and Boston who are both down 2- 1. Being that these two series were looked at as the most even coming in neither comes as a big surprise and both favorites have plenty of opportunity to come back. The other perceived evenly matched series between Buffalo and Philadelphia has also been close and the difference in Philadelphia’s two games to one lead was inserting backup goalie Brian Boucher in net in the middle of game two. Boucher led the comeback in game two and was the starter in the Flyers’ game three win. All three of these series could easily come down to a game seven.
• Detroit and Vancouver look like the class of the Western Conference, ignoring the Canucks beating last night at the hands of the Blackhawks in what I saw as the defending champions’ last gasp. Detroit goes for the sweep tonight in Phoenix and the Canucks should close out Chicago on home ice tomorrow. If the two should meet in the conference finals it should be an unbelievable series. San Jose was my pick to come out of the Western Conference and the Sharks are up 2-1 on the Kings but they needed overtime in both of their victories and have not inspired a ton of confidence the way they have played against a depleted Los Angeles team.
• If we could skip ahead for a moment and assume the Penguins get past Tampa Bay, - I know, a big assumption right now and a terrible jinx on the Pens! - I think Pens’ fans should be pulling for Philadelphia and Montreal to win their respective series. That would set up the Penguins to play the Flyers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, a series the Penguins could win with or without the return of their captain. I would much rather see Philadelphia and their goaltending situation (not to mention a team that the Pens have owned in the playoffs) than go up against either the Canadiens or the Capitals in the next round. Let’s allow those two teams to beat up on each other for a couple of weeks and have the Penguins take on the winner in the Eastern Conference Finals.
NBA
• In stark contrast to the NHL playoffs, the NBA has been chalk full of surprises with three heavy underdogs taking game one on the road and the other five giving the higher seeded team everything they could handle. While all five home teams have won their game two so far, the Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls and Magic were all put to the test before ultimately pulling out home victories. Only the Heat have shown any semblance of being the vastly superior team in their series. Three more game twos take place tonight with, and this is weird to type, both the Spurs and Lakers trying to even up their respective series.
• The biggest shock among the game one upsets was the Lakers losing at Staples Center against a Hornets team that could more accurately be called “Chris Paul and a bunch of nobodies”. New Orleans’ second best player, David West, is out for the year with a torn ACL and the Hornets relied heavily on Aaron Gray in the post. Yes, that is the same Aaron Gray that some Pitt fans are still wondering if he can even dunk. Paul is an unbelievable player and hopefully those that so quickly wanted to anoint Derrick Rose the best point guard in basketball witnessed Paul’s 33 points - 14 assists- 7 rebounds - 4 steals effort on Sunday but there is really no excuse the Lakers could have for losing this game. An overwhelming favorite to come out of the West for a chance at another three-peat, the Lakers proved that they are more vulnerable than many of us may have thought. I think the loss also opened the eyes of the rest of the Western Conference that this thing really is up for grabs.
• The team that could really be licking their chops is the Oklahoma City Thunder. I know I mentioned them as a dark horse in my playoff preview but nobody else in the Western Conference has the personnel to match-up with either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets and their 10-deep rotation are going to give the Thunder everything they can handle in round one but ultimately I think we end up with a tremendous Western Conference Finals between Ok City and L.A.
• In the East we are still tracking for a fantastic final four of Chicago, Miami, Boston and Orlando. Although, as I said earlier, only the Heat have shown even a glimpse of their tremendous potential through the early parts of round one. It is just a shame that we have to wait another two weeks until the playoffs can really begin in the Eastern Conference in all likelihood.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
NBA Playoff Wishes and Predictions
The NBA Playoffs tip-off today and we are potentially setting up for the best two months of playoff basketball in my lifetime. Eight different teams, in my opinion anyway, have a chance to win the whole thing if they get the right match-ups and get hot at the right time. Realistically, however, there are five teams with “anything less than the title would be a disappointment” aspirations. Those five are the Lakers and Spurs out West and the Bulls, Heat and Celtics in the East. The three darkhorses are the Mavericks, Magic and Thunder…although the Mavericks have really limped to the finish line. I have three wishes for these playoffs:
1. The top four seeds in each conference win their opening round series setting up the best conference semifinals of all-time.
2. We get to see a Chicago-Miami Eastern Conference Final. This series could have the potential to be an instant classic with the defensive-minded, crazily intense Bulls going head to head with LeBron and D-Wade. Not to mention a Boston-Chicago series could take basketball back to the early 90s slugfests that turned so many off from professional basketball.
3. The Lakers make it to the Finals from the West. It really doesn’t matter who comes out of the East as Boston, Chicago or Miami would make for an unbelievable Finals as long as Kobe, Pau, Phil and Company are there trying for a 3-peat. Of course a LeBron versus Kobe Finals is what we have all been begging to happen for a few years now but Lakers-Bulls or Lakers-Celtics wouldn’t be bad consolation prizes.
If those three wishes come true, even if you are not a NBA fan, believe me when I tell you that you’ll want to be watching. The league has never been so full of stars and when you start talking about a second round featuring at least 18 future or potential Hall of Famers spread across the eight teams we are in for a real treat. (Kobe, Gasol, Duncan, Ginobli, Dirk, Kidd, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Garnett, Allen and Pierce are locks for the HOF and Durant, Westbrook, Rose, Bosh, Parker and Rondo are all well on their way.)
As for my Finals predictions, I’m taking Miami to outlast Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals proving why LeBron, and not Derrick Rose, is the best player in the NBA and should have won this year’s NBA MVP. I know it’s a foregone conclusion that Rose is going to win it this year, he’s the best story and was the best offensive player on the league’s best team, but that’s only because most people (in this case the media members with award votes) only understand what they can see. They don’t understand that the Bulls were far and away the best defensive team in basketball and that is the biggest reason why their wins took a dramatic uptick. It is true that LeBron had Wade there to help him and the Bulls have nobody else on his level, but the Bulls prominently feature Noah, Boozer, Deng and the best frontcourt defensive tandem in basketball coming off the bench. The Heat would die for any of these players, spent the year trying to figure out their identity, Bosh underachieving, and quite possibly the worst point guard and center play in the league yet still won 58 games, the third most in the NBA mostly because LeBron is the league's best player.
I hated what LeBron did this summer. I wanted to stop liking him as a player, which I couldn’t. I agree that Derrick Rose is a great story and has taken his game to a whole new level. He is right there now with Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the league’s best point guard debate. None of that, however, changes the fact that James is far and away the NBA’s best and Most Valuable Player this year, and for the foreseeable future.
On to the predictions:
Eastern Conference
Bulls over Pacers in four.
Heat over 76ers in five.
Celtics over Knicks in five.
Magic over Hawks in five.
Bulls over Magic in seven.
Heat over Celtics in six.
Heat over Bulls in six.
Western Conference
Spurs over Grizzlies in six.
Lakers over Hornets in four.
Mavericks over Trailblazers in seven.
Thunder over Nuggets in six.
Thunder over Spurs in six.
Lakers over Mavericks in five.
Lakers over Thunder in seven.
NBA Finals
Yes, I am going with our dream match-up to come true. Could you imagine the hype around this series? Kobe going for his sixth ring to tie Jordan. Phil Jackson going for his fourth 3-peat as coach. LeBron going for his first title, Wade going for his second and Chris Bosh tagging along. Ratings would be through the roof, the Heat Index might explode on ESPN and we would all be sick of Sportscenter previews before the Series even began. So…who will win? I honestly can’t give a prediction without second guessing myself. I don’t know how the Heat could handle Gasol, Bynum and Odom inside. I don’t know how the Lakers could handle Wade and LeBron in transition. All I do know is that I hope this series happens. I am taking the easy way out and predicting the Heat in seven since they have home court but the real winners would be us, the fans.
1. The top four seeds in each conference win their opening round series setting up the best conference semifinals of all-time.
2. We get to see a Chicago-Miami Eastern Conference Final. This series could have the potential to be an instant classic with the defensive-minded, crazily intense Bulls going head to head with LeBron and D-Wade. Not to mention a Boston-Chicago series could take basketball back to the early 90s slugfests that turned so many off from professional basketball.
3. The Lakers make it to the Finals from the West. It really doesn’t matter who comes out of the East as Boston, Chicago or Miami would make for an unbelievable Finals as long as Kobe, Pau, Phil and Company are there trying for a 3-peat. Of course a LeBron versus Kobe Finals is what we have all been begging to happen for a few years now but Lakers-Bulls or Lakers-Celtics wouldn’t be bad consolation prizes.
If those three wishes come true, even if you are not a NBA fan, believe me when I tell you that you’ll want to be watching. The league has never been so full of stars and when you start talking about a second round featuring at least 18 future or potential Hall of Famers spread across the eight teams we are in for a real treat. (Kobe, Gasol, Duncan, Ginobli, Dirk, Kidd, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Garnett, Allen and Pierce are locks for the HOF and Durant, Westbrook, Rose, Bosh, Parker and Rondo are all well on their way.)
As for my Finals predictions, I’m taking Miami to outlast Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals proving why LeBron, and not Derrick Rose, is the best player in the NBA and should have won this year’s NBA MVP. I know it’s a foregone conclusion that Rose is going to win it this year, he’s the best story and was the best offensive player on the league’s best team, but that’s only because most people (in this case the media members with award votes) only understand what they can see. They don’t understand that the Bulls were far and away the best defensive team in basketball and that is the biggest reason why their wins took a dramatic uptick. It is true that LeBron had Wade there to help him and the Bulls have nobody else on his level, but the Bulls prominently feature Noah, Boozer, Deng and the best frontcourt defensive tandem in basketball coming off the bench. The Heat would die for any of these players, spent the year trying to figure out their identity, Bosh underachieving, and quite possibly the worst point guard and center play in the league yet still won 58 games, the third most in the NBA mostly because LeBron is the league's best player.
I hated what LeBron did this summer. I wanted to stop liking him as a player, which I couldn’t. I agree that Derrick Rose is a great story and has taken his game to a whole new level. He is right there now with Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the league’s best point guard debate. None of that, however, changes the fact that James is far and away the NBA’s best and Most Valuable Player this year, and for the foreseeable future.
On to the predictions:
Eastern Conference
Bulls over Pacers in four.
Heat over 76ers in five.
Celtics over Knicks in five.
Magic over Hawks in five.
Bulls over Magic in seven.
Heat over Celtics in six.
Heat over Bulls in six.
Western Conference
Spurs over Grizzlies in six.
Lakers over Hornets in four.
Mavericks over Trailblazers in seven.
Thunder over Nuggets in six.
Thunder over Spurs in six.
Lakers over Mavericks in five.
Lakers over Thunder in seven.
NBA Finals
Yes, I am going with our dream match-up to come true. Could you imagine the hype around this series? Kobe going for his sixth ring to tie Jordan. Phil Jackson going for his fourth 3-peat as coach. LeBron going for his first title, Wade going for his second and Chris Bosh tagging along. Ratings would be through the roof, the Heat Index might explode on ESPN and we would all be sick of Sportscenter previews before the Series even began. So…who will win? I honestly can’t give a prediction without second guessing myself. I don’t know how the Heat could handle Gasol, Bynum and Odom inside. I don’t know how the Lakers could handle Wade and LeBron in transition. All I do know is that I hope this series happens. I am taking the easy way out and predicting the Heat in seven since they have home court but the real winners would be us, the fans.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Friday Smorgasbord!
No need for a preamble, let’s dive right in!
• The Penguins played what quite possibly was their best game of the season since Crosby’s injury in game one. It was hard to tell if the Penguins were able to raise their level of play that much or if the Lighting were a little shell-shocked by the intensity of the playoffs. Either way, if the Penguins continue to get that kind of play from Marc-Andre Fleury in net and the power play continues to show some life, the Pens are going to be a tough out for anyone even without Sid. With him, I think they just might become the favorite once again.
• Six of the eight teams I predicted to move on in round one won their opening game. I am not sure if that is good or if missing the two upsets everyone was calling for is bad. It is still early, however, and winning game one doesn’t mean a whole lot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hopefully the Penguins remember that.
• So much for that great Pirates’ start. After losing five of their last six, the Buccos are now 5-7 and trail four other teams in the NL Central. Sure the standings, and even the records, are not very important this time of the year but it would have been nice if this team could have sustained some momentum from the strong early start.
• The good news is that the Pirates starting rotation has continued to perform pretty well. Outside of the opening day defeat the Pirates have been in every game thanks to their starting pitching. Hopefully the pitching doesn’t deteriorate when the bats decide to wake up.
• Fresh off seeing him in person here in Pittsburgh last week is it time to start calling Troy Tulowitzki the best player in baseball? Well let me be the first! You remember when the national outlets start talking about this guy as the best player in the game that you heard it here first. Going back to last September, “Tulo” has hit 22 home runs in his last 42 games while playing the best shortstop in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy so we can all enjoy a full season’s worth.
• The guy Tulowitzki reminds me of is a young Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez, by the way, is far from done himself. About the only player in baseball matching what the Rockies shortstop is doing is the former best player in the game. Tulowitzki is first and Rodriguez is second in the majors in OPS and nobody else is close through the early part of the season.
• How about that Masters finish on Sunday? That was quite possibly the best golf on television I have seen with so many guys hitting important shot after important shot. It very well might have been the return of Tiger Woods as well. For more on that, I know I can’t say it any better than the Sports Guy did, so I will just link to his column: Bill Simmons
• I was going to post my NBA playoff predictions as part of the Smorgasbord but I will hold off and have a separate post going up Saturday morning. Check back then to see who I like in the opening round and a little commentary on the foregone conclusion that Derrick Rose is the NBA MVP this year…
• The Penguins played what quite possibly was their best game of the season since Crosby’s injury in game one. It was hard to tell if the Penguins were able to raise their level of play that much or if the Lighting were a little shell-shocked by the intensity of the playoffs. Either way, if the Penguins continue to get that kind of play from Marc-Andre Fleury in net and the power play continues to show some life, the Pens are going to be a tough out for anyone even without Sid. With him, I think they just might become the favorite once again.
• Six of the eight teams I predicted to move on in round one won their opening game. I am not sure if that is good or if missing the two upsets everyone was calling for is bad. It is still early, however, and winning game one doesn’t mean a whole lot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hopefully the Penguins remember that.
• So much for that great Pirates’ start. After losing five of their last six, the Buccos are now 5-7 and trail four other teams in the NL Central. Sure the standings, and even the records, are not very important this time of the year but it would have been nice if this team could have sustained some momentum from the strong early start.
• The good news is that the Pirates starting rotation has continued to perform pretty well. Outside of the opening day defeat the Pirates have been in every game thanks to their starting pitching. Hopefully the pitching doesn’t deteriorate when the bats decide to wake up.
• Fresh off seeing him in person here in Pittsburgh last week is it time to start calling Troy Tulowitzki the best player in baseball? Well let me be the first! You remember when the national outlets start talking about this guy as the best player in the game that you heard it here first. Going back to last September, “Tulo” has hit 22 home runs in his last 42 games while playing the best shortstop in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy so we can all enjoy a full season’s worth.
• The guy Tulowitzki reminds me of is a young Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez, by the way, is far from done himself. About the only player in baseball matching what the Rockies shortstop is doing is the former best player in the game. Tulowitzki is first and Rodriguez is second in the majors in OPS and nobody else is close through the early part of the season.
• How about that Masters finish on Sunday? That was quite possibly the best golf on television I have seen with so many guys hitting important shot after important shot. It very well might have been the return of Tiger Woods as well. For more on that, I know I can’t say it any better than the Sports Guy did, so I will just link to his column: Bill Simmons
• I was going to post my NBA playoff predictions as part of the Smorgasbord but I will hold off and have a separate post going up Saturday morning. Check back then to see who I like in the opening round and a little commentary on the foregone conclusion that Derrick Rose is the NBA MVP this year…
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
NHL Playoffs Preview and Predictions
I have a range of topics I need to hit on including the opening couple of weeks of the baseball season, the NBA MVP and Tiger’s charge on Sunday but I will save those for a smorgasbord on Friday because today is the start of the most grueling postseason in sports, the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hockey’s postseason is two months of drag-it-out, knock-you-down, insanely intense hockey that I couldn’t do justice with words.
This year’s playoffs is as wide open as I can ever remember it being and that is saying something when just last year we had the number seven and eight seeds playing in the Eastern Conference Finals. For proof, just look at the top two seeds from each conference; Washington, Philadelphia, Vancouver and San Jose. When a team from Philadelphia (not named the Phillies) inspires the most postseason confidence you just know this thing is up for grabs. Let’s get into a little preview of each of the eight opening round series and my prediction for each. Let’s just say that I’m not exactly overflowing with confidence on these selections either.
In case you are wondering, I am going with the San Jose Sharks to hoist the Stanley Cup this year. In what has been a crazy year already, why not top it off with the Sharks finally getting over their postseason failures to claim their first Cup in the franchise’s history.
Eastern Conference
#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Tampa Bay
We will kick it right off with the prediction most of you are probably waiting for (and will probably quit reading afterwards) but I am going with the Penguins in six. My reason is quite simple: Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins have a distinct advantage in net this series and probably sport the league’s best defensive unit in front of their net minder. The Lighting have the prohibitive advantage on special teams, although the Penguins’ power play has shown some small glimmers of hope lately, which is an enormous factor in the postseason but the difference in this one will be Fleury in net for the Penguins against 41-year-old Dwayne Roloson. Roloson may be 41, but he has only 33 postseason games under his belt for a simple reason, he’s just not that good. The Penguins, who for now we have to go with the assumption that Crosby will not play, should be able to sneak enough pucks past Roloson to escape the first round and hope that Sid can return for the Eastern semis. I do fear a game seven in this series, however, as the Penguins simply cannot match the star power of Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos without Crosby in the line-up. That could spell disaster if the Penguins cannot jump out early on the Lightning and put this series away in five or six games. Again, Penguins in six.
#1 Washington vs. #8 New York
Pretty interesting match-up here when you think about the Capitals recent postseason struggles combined with the Rangers 3-1 series lead this year, including a 6-0 victory the last time these teams met. Still, you have to think Washington’s focus on their defensive play during the regular season will pay off somewhat in the playoffs. Even if it doesn’t, the Caps still have too much firepower for the Rangers with Ovechkin, Semin and the gang. Capitals in five.
#2 Philadelphia vs. #7 Buffalo
Buffalo seems to be the popular upset pick among many NHL experts but I have a hard time seeing the defending Eastern Conference champs go down without a fight. Chris Pronger is expected back to man the Philadelphia blue line after missing a month with a wrist injury and his playoff resume is well documented. It is not a coincidence that the Flyers escaped their own postseason demons last year after acquiring Pronger in the offseason. Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller has also missed time recently with an undisclosed upper body injury and playing the Flyers with their scoring and depth up front is no way to ease back in. I think the Flyers’ lackluster play over the last month of the season was a product of coasting towards the playoffs and they will come out strong now that they are here. Flyers in seven.
#3 Boston vs. #6 Montreal
Here is the upset I like. Montreal is a playoff tested team with depth and speed up front and a goaltender in Carey Price who I think is every bit as good as Boston’s Tim Thomas. Personally I think Thomas is a bit overrated because of the style in which the Bruins play and their physical defense. This series will probably come down to the Bruins ability to stay out of the penalty box. My guess is that they do not, and that Montreal’s tremendous power play takes advantage. Canadiens in six.
Western Conference
#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Chicago
When I talk about how wide open these playoffs are, this series is exactly what I am referring to. Here we have the defending Stanley Cup champs taking on what was by far the best team in the NHL during the regular season in the opening round of the playoffs. The question here is if Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s fantastic goaltender, can shake off some of his past big game failures and carry this team past the second round of the playoffs. I think the Blackhawks and their young studs give the Canucks everything they can handle but the Sedin twins will be too much and the Canucks prevail. Canucks in seven.
#2 San Jose vs. #7 Los Angeles
If you read the opening paragraph you know who I am going with here. This is the perfect first round match-up to get the Sharks rolling as they take on a young Kings team who will be without their best player, center Anze Kopitar. Sharks in five.
#3 Detroit vs. #6 Phoenix Phoenix has the advantage in net and the Wings could be without Henrik Zetterberg for the beginning of the series or even more but I just can’t see the upstart Coyotes taking down the veteran Red Wings. It really wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Phoenix pull this upset but I think Detroit’s power play will be too much and they find a way to win the series on home ice in game seven. Red Wings in seven.
#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Nashville
This should be a fantastic series pitting the Ducks’ fantastic forwards against the Predators strong defensive balance led by Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and goaltender Pekka Rinne. Nashville finished second in the NHL in goals against while Anaheim had three forwards in the top 11 and five in the top 26 in the NHL scoring leaders. Conversely, Anaheim will most likely be starting Ray Emery in net with top goalie Jonas Hiller on the shelf while Nashville has only outscored one other playoff team in either conference. The winner of this series will probably be whatever team can dictate the style and tempo. With such contrasting yet strong teams, I see this one going the distance where Anaheim will have home-ice advantage. Ducks in seven.
This year’s playoffs is as wide open as I can ever remember it being and that is saying something when just last year we had the number seven and eight seeds playing in the Eastern Conference Finals. For proof, just look at the top two seeds from each conference; Washington, Philadelphia, Vancouver and San Jose. When a team from Philadelphia (not named the Phillies) inspires the most postseason confidence you just know this thing is up for grabs. Let’s get into a little preview of each of the eight opening round series and my prediction for each. Let’s just say that I’m not exactly overflowing with confidence on these selections either.
In case you are wondering, I am going with the San Jose Sharks to hoist the Stanley Cup this year. In what has been a crazy year already, why not top it off with the Sharks finally getting over their postseason failures to claim their first Cup in the franchise’s history.
Eastern Conference
#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Tampa Bay
We will kick it right off with the prediction most of you are probably waiting for (and will probably quit reading afterwards) but I am going with the Penguins in six. My reason is quite simple: Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins have a distinct advantage in net this series and probably sport the league’s best defensive unit in front of their net minder. The Lighting have the prohibitive advantage on special teams, although the Penguins’ power play has shown some small glimmers of hope lately, which is an enormous factor in the postseason but the difference in this one will be Fleury in net for the Penguins against 41-year-old Dwayne Roloson. Roloson may be 41, but he has only 33 postseason games under his belt for a simple reason, he’s just not that good. The Penguins, who for now we have to go with the assumption that Crosby will not play, should be able to sneak enough pucks past Roloson to escape the first round and hope that Sid can return for the Eastern semis. I do fear a game seven in this series, however, as the Penguins simply cannot match the star power of Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos without Crosby in the line-up. That could spell disaster if the Penguins cannot jump out early on the Lightning and put this series away in five or six games. Again, Penguins in six.
#1 Washington vs. #8 New York
Pretty interesting match-up here when you think about the Capitals recent postseason struggles combined with the Rangers 3-1 series lead this year, including a 6-0 victory the last time these teams met. Still, you have to think Washington’s focus on their defensive play during the regular season will pay off somewhat in the playoffs. Even if it doesn’t, the Caps still have too much firepower for the Rangers with Ovechkin, Semin and the gang. Capitals in five.
#2 Philadelphia vs. #7 Buffalo
Buffalo seems to be the popular upset pick among many NHL experts but I have a hard time seeing the defending Eastern Conference champs go down without a fight. Chris Pronger is expected back to man the Philadelphia blue line after missing a month with a wrist injury and his playoff resume is well documented. It is not a coincidence that the Flyers escaped their own postseason demons last year after acquiring Pronger in the offseason. Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller has also missed time recently with an undisclosed upper body injury and playing the Flyers with their scoring and depth up front is no way to ease back in. I think the Flyers’ lackluster play over the last month of the season was a product of coasting towards the playoffs and they will come out strong now that they are here. Flyers in seven.
#3 Boston vs. #6 Montreal
Here is the upset I like. Montreal is a playoff tested team with depth and speed up front and a goaltender in Carey Price who I think is every bit as good as Boston’s Tim Thomas. Personally I think Thomas is a bit overrated because of the style in which the Bruins play and their physical defense. This series will probably come down to the Bruins ability to stay out of the penalty box. My guess is that they do not, and that Montreal’s tremendous power play takes advantage. Canadiens in six.
Western Conference
#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Chicago
When I talk about how wide open these playoffs are, this series is exactly what I am referring to. Here we have the defending Stanley Cup champs taking on what was by far the best team in the NHL during the regular season in the opening round of the playoffs. The question here is if Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s fantastic goaltender, can shake off some of his past big game failures and carry this team past the second round of the playoffs. I think the Blackhawks and their young studs give the Canucks everything they can handle but the Sedin twins will be too much and the Canucks prevail. Canucks in seven.
#2 San Jose vs. #7 Los Angeles
If you read the opening paragraph you know who I am going with here. This is the perfect first round match-up to get the Sharks rolling as they take on a young Kings team who will be without their best player, center Anze Kopitar. Sharks in five.
#3 Detroit vs. #6 Phoenix Phoenix has the advantage in net and the Wings could be without Henrik Zetterberg for the beginning of the series or even more but I just can’t see the upstart Coyotes taking down the veteran Red Wings. It really wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Phoenix pull this upset but I think Detroit’s power play will be too much and they find a way to win the series on home ice in game seven. Red Wings in seven.
#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Nashville
This should be a fantastic series pitting the Ducks’ fantastic forwards against the Predators strong defensive balance led by Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and goaltender Pekka Rinne. Nashville finished second in the NHL in goals against while Anaheim had three forwards in the top 11 and five in the top 26 in the NHL scoring leaders. Conversely, Anaheim will most likely be starting Ray Emery in net with top goalie Jonas Hiller on the shelf while Nashville has only outscored one other playoff team in either conference. The winner of this series will probably be whatever team can dictate the style and tempo. With such contrasting yet strong teams, I see this one going the distance where Anaheim will have home-ice advantage. Ducks in seven.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Encouraging Signs for Pens
I have had this column written for a couple weeks now but kept holding off expecting bigger and better news to break on Sidney Crosby’s return as well as the proper time to post it to comment on the Penguins’ playoff positioning. Well if I wait any longer the playoffs are going to start and before you know it someone is hoisting the Stanley Cup over their head. So screw it, we still don’t know when or even if Crosby is going to return and the Penguins can still finish anywhere from first to fifth in the Eastern Conference standings but no matter the outcome of either situation, there has certainly been some encouraging signs for the club lately.
First, and it is a bit dated at this time but still very newsworthy is the three year contract extension the Penguins rewarded Coach Dan Bylsma with a few weeks back, and deservedly so! What’s remarkable is that it seems like “Disco Dan” just took over the reins from Michel Therrien and he is already just a little over one full season away from being the Penguins’ longest tenured coach in their 40 plus year history. See, hockey coaches usually don’t last long. The Penguins franchise record is held by Red Kelly, who coached a total of 274 games from 1969-1973. Michel Therrien is second with 272 games. For those that don’t feel like doing the math that is barely over three full seasons in which the Penguins’ longest tenured coach was in charge. That probably means Bylsma’s contract extension doesn’t ensure his job is safe but it does show that GM Ray Shero believes his style of play and his personality are a perfect fit with this team. I couldn’t agree more. With Shero and Bylsma leading the organization for the foreseeable future it is an encouraging sign for the long term success of the team.
Even more encouraging for both the short term and long term good of the franchise is that Sidney Crosby has resumed skating again and even joining his teammates in pregame skates. Sure, it is still early in his attempt at returning from the post-concussion symptoms that has kept him out since January but any good news is welcome when it comes to the franchise’s most important player. Crosby has yet to partake in contact drills but with all sources saying how great Crosby has looked in his current routine we shouldn’t expect for it to be long before he takes part in a full contact practice. If Crosby can clear that hurdle, and I fully expect him to do so at this point, there is a pretty good chance that he could return at some point during the playoffs.
You might remember that it wasn’t long ago that I said the Penguins had no shot at winning the Stanley Cup this year without Crosby in the line-up. I still hold that to be true, but the last and most encouraging sign for at least this year has been the team’s play of late. Marc-Andre Fleury has taken his game to a new level, truly becoming a franchise goaltender. The defense continues to play well and the Penguins are getting scoring contributions from a number of different players up front. The team won’t win the Stanley Cup without Crosby because they are still unable to put the puck in the net with enough regularity, and that has a ton to do with their truly dreadful power-play over the past month, but they have proven they have the ability to steal a round or two and possibly give Crosby more time to make it back if he isn’t ready at the outset of the playoffs.
The Penguins have two regular season games remaining and a lot is still to be decided but the more important season is now in clear view. The Stanley Cup playoffs are just around the corner and the Penguins have a lot of encouraging signs as the playoffs approach both for this year’s team and the foreseeable future. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed for Crosby’s return, whenever that may be.
First, and it is a bit dated at this time but still very newsworthy is the three year contract extension the Penguins rewarded Coach Dan Bylsma with a few weeks back, and deservedly so! What’s remarkable is that it seems like “Disco Dan” just took over the reins from Michel Therrien and he is already just a little over one full season away from being the Penguins’ longest tenured coach in their 40 plus year history. See, hockey coaches usually don’t last long. The Penguins franchise record is held by Red Kelly, who coached a total of 274 games from 1969-1973. Michel Therrien is second with 272 games. For those that don’t feel like doing the math that is barely over three full seasons in which the Penguins’ longest tenured coach was in charge. That probably means Bylsma’s contract extension doesn’t ensure his job is safe but it does show that GM Ray Shero believes his style of play and his personality are a perfect fit with this team. I couldn’t agree more. With Shero and Bylsma leading the organization for the foreseeable future it is an encouraging sign for the long term success of the team.
Even more encouraging for both the short term and long term good of the franchise is that Sidney Crosby has resumed skating again and even joining his teammates in pregame skates. Sure, it is still early in his attempt at returning from the post-concussion symptoms that has kept him out since January but any good news is welcome when it comes to the franchise’s most important player. Crosby has yet to partake in contact drills but with all sources saying how great Crosby has looked in his current routine we shouldn’t expect for it to be long before he takes part in a full contact practice. If Crosby can clear that hurdle, and I fully expect him to do so at this point, there is a pretty good chance that he could return at some point during the playoffs.
You might remember that it wasn’t long ago that I said the Penguins had no shot at winning the Stanley Cup this year without Crosby in the line-up. I still hold that to be true, but the last and most encouraging sign for at least this year has been the team’s play of late. Marc-Andre Fleury has taken his game to a new level, truly becoming a franchise goaltender. The defense continues to play well and the Penguins are getting scoring contributions from a number of different players up front. The team won’t win the Stanley Cup without Crosby because they are still unable to put the puck in the net with enough regularity, and that has a ton to do with their truly dreadful power-play over the past month, but they have proven they have the ability to steal a round or two and possibly give Crosby more time to make it back if he isn’t ready at the outset of the playoffs.
The Penguins have two regular season games remaining and a lot is still to be decided but the more important season is now in clear view. The Stanley Cup playoffs are just around the corner and the Penguins have a lot of encouraging signs as the playoffs approach both for this year’s team and the foreseeable future. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed for Crosby’s return, whenever that may be.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Pirates Should Improve, But How Much
Your 2011 Pittsburgh Baseball Club got off to a nice start, winning two out of three games in Chicago over the weekend. Of course, winning two of your first three is nothing to write home about but for a team that won a total of 17 games on the road last year, winning two out of your first three away from PNC Park can be taken as a positive sign.
We all know about the young power pitchers down on the farm, the fantastic draft the Pirates had last year, the Pirates’ future catcher in Tony Sanchez and all of the positive steps towards the future that the organization peppers us with about building a winner long term, but let’s forget about that for today and focus on this year’s team. How do we expect this year’s team to do and should we expect any improvement on the dreadful season the Pirates put together last year?
Thursday on the blog you probably noticed that I picked the Buccos to win 70 games this year. That is probably a little optimistic, but with the Vegas line being at 67 wins I do not think 70 wins is overly optimistic or out of the realm of possibility. Sure, improving 13 games over the previous season is no easy task but improvement from last year is almost inevitable. It is very hard for a professional baseball team to lose 100 games in a season; to lose 105 is downright embarrassing. Even if the Pirates had not improved their talent level at all, I would have still expected a 5-7 game improvement by pure statistical reasoning. The Pirates did, however, make some meaningful improvements to the line-up and their pitching can’t possibly be any worse than it was a year ago. Let’s take a little closer look at the ballclub now and why I think 70 wins is a real possibility.
The Pirates opening day line-up looked like this:
LF Jose Tabata
2B Neil Walker
CF Andrew McCutchen
1B Lyle Overbay
3B Pedro Alvarez
C Ryan Doumit
RF Garrett Jones
SS Ronny Cedeno
I am not going to dive into the advanced metrics of this line-up (email me if you would like to see some of the numbers), but believe me when I tell you that this line-up has the potential to be a middle of the pack run producer in the National League, especially against right-handed pitching. Against left-handers, the Pirates will sub Matt Diaz in right field for the lefty Jones and will play catcher Chris Snyder over Doumit when he gets healthy. That line-up is not as good as the one running out there against righties but it is still strong enough for the Pirates to have a league average offense. That is a far cry from last year when the team was stuck with Aki Iwamura, Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge taking meaningful at-bats for half the season.
One key for this Pirates line-up is for Manager Clint Hurdle to stick to the platoon system. It gives the Pirates the strongest possibility to out-produce the individual parts they have. Too often managers stray from their original platoon systems because one guy gets hot, one guy gets cold, etc. but for the Pirates to maximize their players’ abilities, it is on Hurdle to put them in the right positions to succeed and that means sticking to the platoons.
Defensively, the Pirates were the worst team in the majors last year. The bad news is that the Pirates will have much of the same team in the field this year that it finished last year with. The good news is that most of the Pirates are young and defense has shown to dramatically improve with experience. McCutchen should be much improved in center with another year of experience, ditto for Tabata. Neil Walker can only get better and being that last year was his first season playing second base and he is a great athlete, I think a big improvement is in store. Lyle Overbay is a marked improvement over the myriad of guys the Pirates ran out there last year at first and Ronny Cedeno should improve with another year under his belt as well. At catcher, Doumit is still a liability but Snyder is known for his defensive ability and should bring a little stability when he’s behind the plate. Nobody will mistake Pedro for Brooks Robinson or the right-field platoon situation of Jones/Diaz for Roberto Clemente, but if the Pirates can be solid at the other positions there should at least be a noticeable improvement in the defense.
That was most of the good news surrounding the 2011 Pirates but now we get to the pitching. I guess the silver lining with the Buccos’ pitching is that it cannot possibly be any worse than it was last year when the staff allowed the most runs in the major leagues. The other good news, I guess, is that Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald and Charlie Morton appear to at least have the raw stuff to become legitimate major league starters and Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm would make most teams’ staffs as 4th or 5th starters. The problem for the Pirates pitching staff is that they have no legitimate ace, or really even a #2 or #3 starter for that matter. All five starters look like they could be legitimate major league starters but no more than a 4th or 5th starter on a good team. I do see improvement coming from Ohlendorf and McDonald and the diehard fans are sure to hold on to hope that Charlie Morton and his “electric stuff” develop, so the possibility of at least an OK starting rotation is possible. If the Pirates can get pitching on par with at least the bottom half of the league and not have clearly the worst staff in baseball, they can win their share of games with an improved line-up.
All together I see a year of improvement for the Pirates and at least the beginning of a basis to compete a few years down the line. If nothing else, this year provides an opportunity to see how Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and the young starters continue to develop. If the proper steps are really being taken by Pirates management to build a contender in a few years, the biggest key will be the development of the players currently on the roster. I expect improvement, but how much is the question.
We all know about the young power pitchers down on the farm, the fantastic draft the Pirates had last year, the Pirates’ future catcher in Tony Sanchez and all of the positive steps towards the future that the organization peppers us with about building a winner long term, but let’s forget about that for today and focus on this year’s team. How do we expect this year’s team to do and should we expect any improvement on the dreadful season the Pirates put together last year?
Thursday on the blog you probably noticed that I picked the Buccos to win 70 games this year. That is probably a little optimistic, but with the Vegas line being at 67 wins I do not think 70 wins is overly optimistic or out of the realm of possibility. Sure, improving 13 games over the previous season is no easy task but improvement from last year is almost inevitable. It is very hard for a professional baseball team to lose 100 games in a season; to lose 105 is downright embarrassing. Even if the Pirates had not improved their talent level at all, I would have still expected a 5-7 game improvement by pure statistical reasoning. The Pirates did, however, make some meaningful improvements to the line-up and their pitching can’t possibly be any worse than it was a year ago. Let’s take a little closer look at the ballclub now and why I think 70 wins is a real possibility.
The Pirates opening day line-up looked like this:
LF Jose Tabata
2B Neil Walker
CF Andrew McCutchen
1B Lyle Overbay
3B Pedro Alvarez
C Ryan Doumit
RF Garrett Jones
SS Ronny Cedeno
I am not going to dive into the advanced metrics of this line-up (email me if you would like to see some of the numbers), but believe me when I tell you that this line-up has the potential to be a middle of the pack run producer in the National League, especially against right-handed pitching. Against left-handers, the Pirates will sub Matt Diaz in right field for the lefty Jones and will play catcher Chris Snyder over Doumit when he gets healthy. That line-up is not as good as the one running out there against righties but it is still strong enough for the Pirates to have a league average offense. That is a far cry from last year when the team was stuck with Aki Iwamura, Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge taking meaningful at-bats for half the season.
One key for this Pirates line-up is for Manager Clint Hurdle to stick to the platoon system. It gives the Pirates the strongest possibility to out-produce the individual parts they have. Too often managers stray from their original platoon systems because one guy gets hot, one guy gets cold, etc. but for the Pirates to maximize their players’ abilities, it is on Hurdle to put them in the right positions to succeed and that means sticking to the platoons.
Defensively, the Pirates were the worst team in the majors last year. The bad news is that the Pirates will have much of the same team in the field this year that it finished last year with. The good news is that most of the Pirates are young and defense has shown to dramatically improve with experience. McCutchen should be much improved in center with another year of experience, ditto for Tabata. Neil Walker can only get better and being that last year was his first season playing second base and he is a great athlete, I think a big improvement is in store. Lyle Overbay is a marked improvement over the myriad of guys the Pirates ran out there last year at first and Ronny Cedeno should improve with another year under his belt as well. At catcher, Doumit is still a liability but Snyder is known for his defensive ability and should bring a little stability when he’s behind the plate. Nobody will mistake Pedro for Brooks Robinson or the right-field platoon situation of Jones/Diaz for Roberto Clemente, but if the Pirates can be solid at the other positions there should at least be a noticeable improvement in the defense.
That was most of the good news surrounding the 2011 Pirates but now we get to the pitching. I guess the silver lining with the Buccos’ pitching is that it cannot possibly be any worse than it was last year when the staff allowed the most runs in the major leagues. The other good news, I guess, is that Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald and Charlie Morton appear to at least have the raw stuff to become legitimate major league starters and Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm would make most teams’ staffs as 4th or 5th starters. The problem for the Pirates pitching staff is that they have no legitimate ace, or really even a #2 or #3 starter for that matter. All five starters look like they could be legitimate major league starters but no more than a 4th or 5th starter on a good team. I do see improvement coming from Ohlendorf and McDonald and the diehard fans are sure to hold on to hope that Charlie Morton and his “electric stuff” develop, so the possibility of at least an OK starting rotation is possible. If the Pirates can get pitching on par with at least the bottom half of the league and not have clearly the worst staff in baseball, they can win their share of games with an improved line-up.
All together I see a year of improvement for the Pirates and at least the beginning of a basis to compete a few years down the line. If nothing else, this year provides an opportunity to see how Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and the young starters continue to develop. If the proper steps are really being taken by Pirates management to build a contender in a few years, the biggest key will be the development of the players currently on the roster. I expect improvement, but how much is the question.
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