Ten Questions on the Pens Season

As I write this the Penguins are squaring off with the Vancouver Canucks on opening night of the 2011-2012 NHL Season. Here are ten questions on the upcoming season that I will be following now and as the season progresses.

1. When will Crosby return? Obviously this is question #1 for every Penguins fan but all signs point to Sid not missing a significant part of the season. If Sid misses the first month or less, I expect the Penguins to compete for the top seed in the Eastern Conference and maybe even the top point total in the NHL. If Crosby misses a significant portion of the season, I still expect the Pens to compete for a top four or five seed in the Eastern Conference but the season will start to take on a much different tone with continuing questions about their captain. More important, however, is question number two.

2. Will Crosby remain healthy? I think everyone believes that it is inevitable that Crosby will return at some point and now it is only a matter of when. Nobody, however, knows what will happen when he does return. It’s just my own observation but it seems that those who suffer a concussion either recover quickly and never really have problems with them again or there are those that suffer long-term and lingering effects that result in multiple concussions and careers that are never the same. Guys like Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Eric Lindros and a handful of others were never the same after experiencing lingering symptoms and multiple concussions. I sure hope Crosby returns with no lingering effects, suffers no further damage to his head and goes on to the career that we all expect him to have.

3. How will Evgeni Malkin bounce back from his own injury? Crosby won’t be the only one returning this year from a season ending injury. The Penguins, and maybe the NHL’s, second best player in Malkin returns after missing much of the Pens 2010-2011 season with a torn ACL. Malkin was playing possibly his worst hockey since entering the league before the knee injury ended his season last year. That being said, all indications are that Geno is in the best shape of his career, is more determined than ever before and is poised for a monster season. His preseason sure backed those sentiments and now he must carry that momentum into the regular season and playoffs. With the fantastic depth up and down the line-up that Ray Shero has assembled and with Fleury in net, a healthy Crosby and Malkin make the Penguins the team to beat from where I am sitting.

4. Will Marc-Andre Fleury become an elite goaltender? This question is a bit misleading as most, including myself, already consider Fleury an elite netminder. I’m not sure I would trade him straight up for any other goalie in the league once the playoffs begin. That being said…Fleury’s lackluster statistical regular seasons, both by regular and advanced metric measurements, keeps Fleury from being mentioned with the truly elite goaltenders in the league. I think this is mostly attributed to an absolutely terrible streak that he seems to have every season. Last year you might remember that he got off to an abysmal start. It’s time for Fleury, now 26 years-old, to put together that complete season and begin to get mentioned in that class.

5. Will the Penguins actually have a power play this year? Ha, well if the first period of tonight’s game is any indication they certainly will as James Neal and Matt Cooke converted on the Pens’ first two opportunities of the season. Last year, however, the Penguins finished 25th in converting power play opportunities and it was not just a matter of missing Malkin and Crosby as the Penguins power play struggled even with the two stars in the line-up. The problem was highlighted even further by the fact that the Penguins had the fifth most opportunities in the league. Converting on only a fraction more of their power play chances would make the Penguins a complete team and nearly impossible to compete with through the course of a season.

6. Will James Neal become the scoring winger the Penguins have been searching for? As I mentioned, Neal scored on the Pens’ first power play chance of the season five minutes into the game. That means it took him all of five minutes to match his goal total in 27 games wearing a Penguins sweater a year ago. I won’t harp too much on this one as it has been written about plenty in the local papers but the Penguins need the player we all thought they were getting when Shero traded for Neal at last year’s deadline.

7. Can Matt Cooke continue to be effective? Hopefully game one of eighty-two is a preview of things to come as the last three questions have been answered positively in an emphatic way (Cooke added to his power play goal with a sweet short-handed goal in the 2nd period). This, too, has been a heavily talked about subject in local news circles but I actually think it is being asked backwards. Cooke is a good two-way player, always has been, but the question isn’t whether he can continue to be without his former agitating ways but if he can truly avoid going over that imaginary line once again. Cooke’s history of questionable tactics and dirty hits will be punished severely by the league if another incident occurs and he could easily be on the first plane out of town if that happens as I suspect the Penguins have probably grown a bit tired of that old act.

8. What will Ray Shero do at the trade deadline? Shero has assembled a deep and talented roster that should be on the short list of Stanley Cup favorites if its stars can stay healthy. Shero has also proven that he isn’t afraid to tinker, or make a big splash, at the trade deadline. It will be interesting to see how Shero assesses this team as the season progresses and if he needs to bring in some complimentary pieces or if he needs to make that bigger move to try and recapture Lord Stanley’s Cup.

9. Can the team remain healthy? The biggest obstacle facing the Penguins franchise as they try to win another Cup is the health of its own players. Crosby has missed 76 games over the previous four seasons, Malkin has missed 54 and Chris Kunitz has missed 48 over the past two seasons, Jordan Staal missed 40 a season ago and even tough-man Brooks Orpik missed 19 games last year and 9 games the season before. Sure, hockey is a brutally tough game but the Pens have had some significantly bad luck when it comes to their stars getting injured. The biggest thing I will be watching and rooting for as the season goes along will be the health of the Penguins top players.

10. When do the playoffs start? Seriously, is there anything more meaningless in professional sports for an elite team than the NHL regular season? Maybe the NBA’s regular season but at least in hoops home court advantage is significant. As we saw last year with Tampa Bay beating the Pens in game seven in the first round and Boston winning the cup in game seven on Vancouver’s home ice, seeding and home ice advantage means very little in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The only thing to root for, outside of individual accomplishments and team and player records, is for the team to stay healthy. That hasn’t been the case for the Penguins the last few years and that’s why, especially considering Crosby’s concussion issues, health is the most important factor I will be watching for this year.

Penguins Blow Opportunities, Series

There is nothing more unpredictable in sports than a game seven in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year we watched in shock as the Montreal Canadiens took it to the Penguins on their home ice in a series where most thought Pittsburgh had the superior team. Last night we had to sit there in horror as the Penguins dominated puck possession, scoring chances and physical play but couldn’t get a single puck in the back of the net on their way to a 1-0 shutout loss. With or without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, anything can happen in a game seven. That is why it was so disappointing to see the Penguins blow chances in games five and six with a chance to close out Tampa Bay. Ultimately the series was lost by the Penguins inability to score goals, something I have been cautioning about for weeks now, as they scored only 14 goals in seven games. Looking back, however, it was the Penguins failed opportunities in games five and six and their failed opportunities on all but one of their 30 something power plays during the series that cost the Penguins a chance to move forward even without number 87 on the ice.

I predicted before the series that the Penguins would win in six. I thought they could get past the first round based on the goaltending match-up and their superior defense. I cautioned, however, that if this series went to seven that the Pens could be in trouble without a star to rely on. This is almost exactly what happened last night. Despite dominating the puck for most of the game and getting a solid, if not great, performance from Marc-Andre Fleury, the Penguins couldn’t get a single shot behind Lightning goaltender Dwayne Roloson. This year, without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it was imperative for the Penguins to avoid a game seven against a team full of superstars like Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steven Stamkos, among others. Sure it was none of the Lightning stars who scored the only goal in game seven, rather it was grinder Sean Bergenheim, but it was the failure of the Penguins to produce a goal whether at even strength or on any of their five power plays. Needless to say, the Penguins could have used a guy they could have relied upon for offense.

The good news is that unlike most playoff losses that begin the “what happened” discussions and “what needs to be done for next year” questions, this one is pretty easy to explain and the pieces are already in place to make the Penguins one of the top Cup favorites for next year. Crosby and Malkin will be back and probably hungrier than ever. Fleury, Staal, Orpik, Letang, Neal, Martin, Michalek, Kunitz and Kennedy are all signed through next year and in most cases a couple of years beyond. Sure, General Manager Ray Shero has some decisions to make on role players such as Max Talbot and if he should trade Matt Cooke, but based on his track record we can expect Shero to make the best of those decisions. The Penguins fatal flaw this year was their inability to score goals. That is something that is pretty easily remedied by plugging two of the world’s best players back in the line-up. It is a sad day for Penguins fans, mostly because of the blown opportunities that the Penguins had in the series, but there is a lot to look forward to next year and beyond.

Encouraging Signs for Pens

I have had this column written for a couple weeks now but kept holding off expecting bigger and better news to break on Sidney Crosby’s return as well as the proper time to post it to comment on the Penguins’ playoff positioning. Well if I wait any longer the playoffs are going to start and before you know it someone is hoisting the Stanley Cup over their head. So screw it, we still don’t know when or even if Crosby is going to return and the Penguins can still finish anywhere from first to fifth in the Eastern Conference standings but no matter the outcome of either situation, there has certainly been some encouraging signs for the club lately.

First, and it is a bit dated at this time but still very newsworthy is the three year contract extension the Penguins rewarded Coach Dan Bylsma with a few weeks back, and deservedly so! What’s remarkable is that it seems like “Disco Dan” just took over the reins from Michel Therrien and he is already just a little over one full season away from being the Penguins’ longest tenured coach in their 40 plus year history. See, hockey coaches usually don’t last long. The Penguins franchise record is held by Red Kelly, who coached a total of 274 games from 1969-1973. Michel Therrien is second with 272 games. For those that don’t feel like doing the math that is barely over three full seasons in which the Penguins’ longest tenured coach was in charge. That probably means Bylsma’s contract extension doesn’t ensure his job is safe but it does show that GM Ray Shero believes his style of play and his personality are a perfect fit with this team. I couldn’t agree more. With Shero and Bylsma leading the organization for the foreseeable future it is an encouraging sign for the long term success of the team.

Even more encouraging for both the short term and long term good of the franchise is that Sidney Crosby has resumed skating again and even joining his teammates in pregame skates. Sure, it is still early in his attempt at returning from the post-concussion symptoms that has kept him out since January but any good news is welcome when it comes to the franchise’s most important player. Crosby has yet to partake in contact drills but with all sources saying how great Crosby has looked in his current routine we shouldn’t expect for it to be long before he takes part in a full contact practice. If Crosby can clear that hurdle, and I fully expect him to do so at this point, there is a pretty good chance that he could return at some point during the playoffs.

You might remember that it wasn’t long ago that I said the Penguins had no shot at winning the Stanley Cup this year without Crosby in the line-up. I still hold that to be true, but the last and most encouraging sign for at least this year has been the team’s play of late. Marc-Andre Fleury has taken his game to a new level, truly becoming a franchise goaltender. The defense continues to play well and the Penguins are getting scoring contributions from a number of different players up front. The team won’t win the Stanley Cup without Crosby because they are still unable to put the puck in the net with enough regularity, and that has a ton to do with their truly dreadful power-play over the past month, but they have proven they have the ability to steal a round or two and possibly give Crosby more time to make it back if he isn’t ready at the outset of the playoffs.

The Penguins have two regular season games remaining and a lot is still to be decided but the more important season is now in clear view. The Stanley Cup playoffs are just around the corner and the Penguins have a lot of encouraging signs as the playoffs approach both for this year’s team and the foreseeable future. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed for Crosby’s return, whenever that may be.

Pens Should be in Great Shape

Before we dive head first into the Super Bowl this week, I thought it might be a good time to take a quick look at the Penguins as they begin the second half, or more appropriately, the post All-Star break portion of their season. The Pens currently sit in fourth place in the Eastern Conference with 66 points and a record of 31-15-4. Dan Bylsma’s bunch sits fourth simply because the three division leaders are seeded one through three, but the Penguins are actually third in the conference in points and only trail second place Tampa Bay by one point with a game in hand. Digging a little deeper, however, and one can see just how good of a position that the Penguins are in.

Through their first 50 games, the Penguins have seen Sidney Crosby miss the last nine games with post-concussion symptoms, Evgeni Malkin miss eight games due to knee and sinus problems and Jordan Staal miss the first 39 games with an infection on his surgically repaired foot and a broken hand. That’s over one-third of the possible man-games that the Penguins have been without at least one of their top three forwards yet they sit with the fourth most points in the entire NHL. The Penguins have only played two games this season with all three of their top forwards in the line-up, the New Year’s Day game loss to the Capitals and an 8-1 beat down of the Lightning. While Malkin’s injured knee has lingered a bit, none of the injuries should hinder the three players’ abilities come playoff time.

To think that the Penguins have been one of the best teams in NHL without one of their best players pretty much every single night has to have the rest of the Eastern Conference worried about how potent this team will be when everyone is healthy. That is because the biggest difference between this team and the Stanley Cup Championship team of just two years ago is their ability on the blue line. Not only do the Penguins feature the playmaking and skating ability of Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski’s shot on the point, and the puck-moving capabilities of newcomer Paul Martin, they are downright stingy in the defensive end. Brooks Orpik is his usual solid self, providing the hitting and defensive zone responsibilities he always does, the other newcomer Zbynek Michalek has been a solid two-way player and the Penguins have received above average play from their sixth defensemen whether that be Ben Lovejoy or Deryk Engelland. The Penguins regular seven defensemen are a combined plus 60 on the year.

Part of that stellar play on the blue line has been the continued development of All-Star goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. It sure seems like an eternity ago that Fleury was off to a rough start with fans calling for the Pens to go with back-up Brent Johnson. Fleury has rebounded to post the league’s fifth best goals-against average at 2.19, sixth best save-percentage at .925 and tied for fifth most wins with 23, only two off the leader. As a team, the Penguins are second in the NHL in goals against trailing only the Boston Bruins by two goals. This is a remarkable improvement from just two years ago when the Penguins were ninth in the Eastern Conference in goals against…and it’s not like the offense has been suffering as a result. The Pens are 3rd in the Conference in goals despite playing without one of their stars on a nightly basis.

I am not suggesting that this team is better than the Stanley Cup championship team of two years ago just yet. That team gelled at the right time, had Malkin playing at a level we haven’t seen since and basically had three different lines all playing at a very high level together. This team, however, has the potential to be as good if not better than that team. It is reasonable to assume that Crosby and Malkin will be back in the near future with time for the lines to get sorted out and accustomed to playing with each other heading into playoffs. If Malkin, who I called out earlier this year as needing to raise his level of play, can return to even close to that 2008 form this team will be just as good in their offensive end as the Cup team while being markedly improved in their own end. Throw in the continued upward ascension form Marc-Andre Fleury and this team has the look of another championship-caliber team.

In a week that we are celebrating the potential championship of one Pittsburgh team, it is very possible we could be breaking down another championship match-up in just a few short months.