Last week we did a first look at how I would rank the Top 25 teams in college football. Now that week three of the preseason is complete, let’s stick with the rankings theme and do a first look at my NFL Power Rankings entering the 2010 NFL season. We’ll get to the Hard Knocks part in just a bit…
1. Indianapolis Colts – the Colts have looked terrible in the preseason so far, but what else is new. Say we had 44 random NFL players at each position to pick two football teams from, if I can have Peyton Manning with the first pick I will give you the next 22 and I would still feel pretty good about my chances of winning. The Colts have won 12 or more games per year for the last seven seasons for a reason.
2. New Orleans Saints – the Saints are going to be hard-pressed to duplicate the amount of turnovers they forced last season, but there is too much to love about this offense, especially with Sean Payton doing the game planning.
3. Dallas Cowboys – arguably the most talented team in the league position-by-position, this team still lacks an identity that great football teams need, unless you count their inability to win a big game as their identity. It is time this team takes the next step, or we could very well see Bill Cowher manning the Cowboys sidelines next year.
4. New England Patriots – Tom Brady fully recovered from his knee injury plus Randy Moss in a contract year equals big things for the New England offense. The question becomes whether Belichick can return this defense to its former glory days.
5. Baltimore Ravens – This could be a new era Ravens team where the offense leads the way but if Ed Reed can get healthy, the Ravens are as good as anyone in the AFC.
6. San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers is obviously the real deal but it remains to be seen how much the absence of Vincent Jackson will affect this offense and if the Chargers can get him signed at all. Rivers is still the only QB of the 2004 draft class (not named J.P. Losman of course) yet to win a Super Bowl. Have to imagine that is driving him crazy at this point.
7. Minnesota Vikings – I flip-flopped a few times between the six, seven and eight teams on this list before ultimately settling on the current order. The Vikings were one boneheaded Brett Favre throw away from being in the Super Bowl last year and should be right in contention again. They will need a healthy return from star WR Sidney Rice and Favre to remain healthy, but this team remains loaded with talent.
8. Green Bay Packers – I mentioned to a couple of people the other day that it is not far-fetched to believe Aaron Rodgers will be the best quarterback in the NFL within the next 3-4 years as Manning and Brady age. Rodgers has all the physical ability in the world and looks to have the right mental ability and instincts as well. The defense will need to find a way to pressure the quarterback better than it did last year for this team to make that next step into the NFL elite.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers – I was tempted to rank the Steelers much higher than this because I believe their potential is on par with any team in the NFL. The total uncertainty of how this team will perform without Roethlisberger and the fact that the defense is aging a bit and seems susceptible to injury forced me to drop them a few spots. If this defense can stay healthy and the team holds its own without Roethlisberger (which I think it will by the way), I fully expect the Steelers to be a Super Bowl contender.
10. New York Giants – I think people are ignoring the number of injuries the G-Men had last year and are severely underestimating the potential with this Giants team. Eli Manning has a great corps of young WRs, a stable of RBs and a solid offensive line that should make this offense pretty dynamic. With their health restored, this Giants defense should be able to get back to their ways of pressuring quarterbacks and limiting big plays, something that killed them last year.
11. Cincinnati Bengals – This could be the make or break year for Carson Palmer who hasn’t looked the same since his knee injury. I do not mean make or break in the sense that he should no longer be the starter, but the jury is definitely out on whether he remains an elite NFL quarterback or just another average starter. There are a ton of familiar names and personalities on this roster, should be interesting to watch how it comes together, or falls apart.
12. New York Jets – People seem to be getting on this bandwagon just a bit too much in my opinion. My first column I wrote for this website was named “A Quarterback League” and I for one, am far from sold on Mark Sanchez. Throw in the number of egos this team has seemed to accumulate and the absence of Revis Island and this team has as much potential to miss the playoffs as it does to make the Super Bowl. If the “Hard Knocks” portrayal of Sanchez and his lack of confidence is true, my doubts about him are just magnified.
Speaking of “Hard Knocks”, I hope everyone out there has been watching HBO’s special this year on training camp with the New York Jets. If you have not been following, watch them on-demand, record the past episodes on your DVR when they are repeated during the week, download them on the internet, do something to catch up. The three episodes so far have been great, and since we are in the rankings mood, let’s take a quick break from the NFL Power Rankings and rank my top five “Hard Knocks” moments so far this season:
1. My favorite part of this show, just like every season in the past, is the beginning of the first episode when the opening music is playing and highlights of the guys lacing up their pads for the first time, walking onto the practice field, and the first hitting drills are shown. Gives me the chills everytime, and I am sure it makes anyone who has ever played football in the past want to lace them up one more time (side note: when the players are complaining and looked tired and bored after the first few days of camp, you remember why you don’t miss playing as well).
2. Sure, Rex Ryan likes to use the f-bomb and his language on the show started a dumb media confrontation between him and Tony Dungy, but the thing I have taken most from this show about the coach is his passion for football. How many other head coaches are drilling 5th string linebackers on defensive formations, or teaching defensive linemen proper technique, or having punt catching contests with their general managers, or celebrating like a player on every big hit? Think what you want about Sexy Rexy, but his players seem to love playing for him and so would I.
3. How many kids does Antonio Cromartie have? By my count, it was seven children with five different women, and about five of those children were three years-old. Cromartie must have been a busy man in 2006-2007.
4. Bart Scott has been somewhat of a star on the show, having an outgoing personality and one that jells perfectly with head coach Rex Ryan. His best line so far had to be the one about Joe McKnight taking a pay cut from playing at USC to joining the Jets. The guys around him didn’t seem to know if they should laugh or not…
5. Ok, there are too many more parts of the show that have been great to limit this to only five spots but the special teams’ coach Mike Westhoff’s story was a great one, nose tackle Kris Jenkins has some great lines including leading the hazing of rookie Brian Jackson by tying him to the goalpost, and of course the mandatory appearance of Joe Namath who cared a little too much about the way the quarterbacks were taking snaps. If you have not seen the show yet, do yourself a favor and catch up.
Back to the NFL Rankings…
13. Philadelphia Eagles – Green Bay’s decision to make the move to Aaron Rodgers and away from Favre was a great decision a couple years back, we’ll have to see if Andy Reid’s decision to move out Donovan McNabb for 4th-year pro Kevin Kolb was just as wise. The Eagles certainly have some talent on both sides of the ball, but with that division, the season ultimately rests on Kolb’s right shoulder.
14. Tennessee Titans – The Titans are only one year removed from a 13-3 season and Vince Young looks like he has revived his career once again. The one-two punch of VY and Chris Johnson makes the Titans’ offense dangerous and we always know that Jeff Fisher will have a defense that is ready to play.
15. San Francisco 49ers – This team has drafted very well the past couple of seasons and will look to put all the accumulated pieces together this year. I like the 49ers to win the NFC West, and that is enough to get into the top half of the league.
16. Miami Dolphins – Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin were in a battle to become the highest paid possession receiver in the league and Marshall won that battle, so he gets the title of most overpaid WR. The Dolphins certainly have some pieces on both sides of the ball, but there are plenty of missing pieces as well.
17. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan seemed to take a step back from his phenomenal rookie year and Michael Turner got hurt after going over the dreaded 370 carry mark. Can the two of them bounce back and bring the Falcons back to the playoffs?
18. Houston Texans – Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson might just be the best passing combo in the league at this point, but the Texans lack of a RB and holes on the offensive line has made this team inconsistent week to week in the past, don’t see much changing this year.
19. Washington Redskins – I am a believer in McNabb, he has won every year of his career. Mike Shanahan hasn’t done too bad himself. This team should be competitive, but will be in for a tough fight in the NFC East.
20. Denver Broncos – The Broncos struggled at times last year applying pressure on the QB and have now lost sackmaster Elvis Dumervil for an extended period of time. That, and the lack of playmaker on offense, does not bode well for Josh McDaniels and company.
21. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have a good offensive line, a great running-back combo and a desperate coach trying to save his job in John Fox. That could translate into some success, but that all depends on the play of QB Matt Moore. If Moore struggles, expect to see rookie Jimmy Clausen in a hurry.
22. Chicago Bears – Time to find out if the mad-offensive genius that is Mike Martz can save Jake Cutler. I certainly have my doubts.
23. Arizona Cardinals – When you are benching your starting quarterback in the preseason for the artist formally known as Derek Anderson, you could be in for a long year. If Leinart can become anything close to what the Cardinals had hoped when they drafted him, they could still contend for the weak NFC West.
24. Seattle Seahawks – The Pete Carroll era begins with some uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball and a reliance on the health of Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. I don’t think Carroll has the welcome back party he is hoping for, but I think he will eventually do a much better job this time around.
25. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders should be one of the more improved teams this year under head coach Tom Cable with the acquisition of QB Jason Campbell. That improvement probably doesn’t mean more than 6 or 7 wins, however.
26. Kansas City Chiefs – Jamal Charles was a stud in the second half of the season last year and the Chiefs’ offense should be improved under Charlie Weis. Much like the Raiders, however, improvement this year may not translate into the wins column.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars – MJD is one of my favorite players in the NFL to watch. It is too bad there are not many residents in Jacksonville who feel the same way.
28. Detroit Lions – The offense might not be half-bad with the expected improvement from second year QB Matt Stafford along with Jahvid Best in the backfield and Calvin Johnson on the outside. The defense is a whole other story.
29. Cleveland Browns – Jake Delhomme is the starting quarterback in Cleveland. Not sure I have to say much more than that to justify this ranking.
30. St. Louis Rams – I really like Sam Bradford as a quarterback prospect and Steven Jackson is a beast. Not much else to like here.
31. Buffalo Bills – Three-headed monster at running back and a whole lot of nothing.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I dare you to try and name five Bucs’ starters; I will even spot you Cadillac Williams and Ronde Barber. Unless you play in the deepest of fantasy football leagues, I’m guessing point proven.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Preseason Top 25
The Associated Press preseason college football Top 25 poll was released over the weekend and three local teams showed up. Pitt came in at #15, Penn State #19 and West Virginia rounded out the Top 25. Now, we all know how meaningless the preseason polls should be but the truth of the matter is that they often play a role in the outcome of the season. Ask the 2004 Auburn Tigers if the preseason polls had no bearing in their undefeated team not getting a shot at the National Title. Besides, college football fans everywhere love to debate the polls and where there teams should and shouldn’t be ranked. If I had a vote, here’s how my preseason Top 25 would look. Send me your thoughts.
1. Alabama – Thought about putting Ohio St. here but we have to give Coach Saban the benefit of the doubt until the Crimson Tide get knocked off. Alabama returns the fearsome 1-2 punch of Mark Ingram, only the reigning Heisman winner, and Trent Richardson in the backfield as well as Julio Jones on the outside which could make this Tide team even more dangerous than last year.
2. Ohio State – Terrelle Pryor is my preseason Heisman favorite and the Buckeyes are the team that I most expect to make it to the BCS National Championship game.
3. Boise State – Boise returns a number of starters from their BCS busting team last year including Heisman hopeful QB Kellen Moore. We will find out if they are the real deal right away as the Broncos take on Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. for their opener and have Oregon St. at home just a few weeks later.
4. Florida – Urban Meyer and the Florida Gators do not rebuild, only reload. QB John Brantley has some big shoes to fill but expect the Gators to take on a somewhat different look without the running abilities of their quarterback.
5. TCU – Part two of the BCS busters, TCU brings back a handful of offensive players from their BCS team a year ago. The Horned Frogs must replace all-world defensive end Jerry Hughes, but seven other starters return from a damn good unit defensively.
6. Oklahoma – Last year was a stumbling block from the Sooners with a paramount of injuries. The experience that QB Landry Jones gained, however, should be invaluable for this year.
7. Texas – Texas and Oklahoma will be fighting for Big 12 supremacy once again. Texas will also be breaking in a new QB under center, Garrett Gilbert, who filled in capably after Colt McCoy left last year’s title game.
8. Nebraska – The Cornhuskers should be king of the Big 12 North in their final year before moving to the Big 10. Nebraska returns QB Zac Lee and should once again have a dominating defense despite the loss of DT Ndamukong Suh.
9. Virginia Tech – If the nation’s top running back duo isn’t in Tuscaloosa, it’s in Blacksburg with Darren Evans and Ryan Williams manning what should be an unstoppable running attack with QB Tyrod Taylor. The defense only has four returning starters, but I suspect the amount of success the Hokies enjoy this year will depend on Taylor’s right arm.
10. Oregon – Despite the loss of Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback for disciplinary reasons, I believe in Chip Kelly and his offensive coaching abilities. The Ducks should be the class of the Pac 10 and could compete for the National Title if the QB play is adequate enough.
11. Pittsburgh – This is a bit higher than many of the national pundits are ranking the Panthers, but make no mistake that this team is supremely talented. The Panthers can boast of four players on the top two units of the preseason All-American team and anything less than a BCS Bowl game would be a disappointment.
12. Iowa – Iowa found ways to win games last year in the fourth quarter, but I suspect they may have used up a good portion of their luck for this year in the process. The Hawkeyes will need better all-around performances from QB Ricky Stanzi if they are going to meet expectations this year.
13. Wisconsin – If I am picking a team not named Ohio St. to win the Big Ten this year, Wisconsin would be my pick. With a favorable schedule and John Clay back to run the ball behind the Badgers’ bruising offensive line, big
14. Miami – Time for Jacory Harris to step up. The quarterback showed flashes of brilliance last year but ultimately too many interceptions led to a downward spiral for “The U”.
15. USC – I was tempted to put the Trojans higher on the list because they still ultimately possess as much talent as anyone in the country. But the punishment handed down by the NCAA along with my questions about Lane Kiffin as a coach makes the #15 spot seem about right. I do expect a big time jump from quarterback Matt Barkley, however.
16. LSU – Les Miles is on the hot seat, but there is simply too much talent here to not have a successful season. How successful probably depends on the play of Jordan Jefferson at quarterback.
17. Florida State – The Jumbo Fisher era begins in Tallahassee with a ton of experience returning on the offensive side of the ball, including darkhorse Heisman contender Christian Ponder.
18. North Carolina – If the Tar Heels can avoid NCAA punishment, they should have a dominant defense. Butch Davis has this program back on track.
19. Oregon State – A difficult non-conference schedule and a history of starting slowly could do the Beavers in, but I expect a more focused attitude from the start and big things from the Rodgers brothers in the end.
20. Arkansas – Ryan Mallett, the one-time Michigan transfer, is getting a ton of preseason publicity and has the talent around him to put up some big numbers. Mallett certainly has the physical ability, but consider me not so sold just yet.
21. Georgia Tech – Despite losing some key pieces to their triple-option attack including running back Jonathan Dwyer, Paul Johnson’s offense will always be tough to defend.
22. West Virginia – The Mountaineers should get a big test early in a trip to LSU but Geno Smith sounds like the real deal behind center and Noel Devine returns to leave more jockstraps out on the field.
23. Notre Dame – I have too much respect for Brian Kelly as a coach and the Irish have too many weapons on offense for Kelly to play with. I think people are going to be somewhat surprised at Notre Dame’s early success.
24. South Carolina – Debated between the Gamecocks, Georgia and Auburn here but ultimately I think this is the year that Spurrier gets the South Carolina program over the hump and into a major bowl game. Of course, that depends a whole lot on the play of quarterback Stephen Garcia.
25. Penn State – I am not leaving Penn State off the list and having my mailbox filled with hate emails. But too many questions at the most important position along with an early trip to Tuscaloosa could prove disastrous for the Lions. The good news is that Penn State should be able to rely on a solid defense and Evan Royster and the ground game for most of the year.
1. Alabama – Thought about putting Ohio St. here but we have to give Coach Saban the benefit of the doubt until the Crimson Tide get knocked off. Alabama returns the fearsome 1-2 punch of Mark Ingram, only the reigning Heisman winner, and Trent Richardson in the backfield as well as Julio Jones on the outside which could make this Tide team even more dangerous than last year.
2. Ohio State – Terrelle Pryor is my preseason Heisman favorite and the Buckeyes are the team that I most expect to make it to the BCS National Championship game.
3. Boise State – Boise returns a number of starters from their BCS busting team last year including Heisman hopeful QB Kellen Moore. We will find out if they are the real deal right away as the Broncos take on Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. for their opener and have Oregon St. at home just a few weeks later.
4. Florida – Urban Meyer and the Florida Gators do not rebuild, only reload. QB John Brantley has some big shoes to fill but expect the Gators to take on a somewhat different look without the running abilities of their quarterback.
5. TCU – Part two of the BCS busters, TCU brings back a handful of offensive players from their BCS team a year ago. The Horned Frogs must replace all-world defensive end Jerry Hughes, but seven other starters return from a damn good unit defensively.
6. Oklahoma – Last year was a stumbling block from the Sooners with a paramount of injuries. The experience that QB Landry Jones gained, however, should be invaluable for this year.
7. Texas – Texas and Oklahoma will be fighting for Big 12 supremacy once again. Texas will also be breaking in a new QB under center, Garrett Gilbert, who filled in capably after Colt McCoy left last year’s title game.
8. Nebraska – The Cornhuskers should be king of the Big 12 North in their final year before moving to the Big 10. Nebraska returns QB Zac Lee and should once again have a dominating defense despite the loss of DT Ndamukong Suh.
9. Virginia Tech – If the nation’s top running back duo isn’t in Tuscaloosa, it’s in Blacksburg with Darren Evans and Ryan Williams manning what should be an unstoppable running attack with QB Tyrod Taylor. The defense only has four returning starters, but I suspect the amount of success the Hokies enjoy this year will depend on Taylor’s right arm.
10. Oregon – Despite the loss of Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback for disciplinary reasons, I believe in Chip Kelly and his offensive coaching abilities. The Ducks should be the class of the Pac 10 and could compete for the National Title if the QB play is adequate enough.
11. Pittsburgh – This is a bit higher than many of the national pundits are ranking the Panthers, but make no mistake that this team is supremely talented. The Panthers can boast of four players on the top two units of the preseason All-American team and anything less than a BCS Bowl game would be a disappointment.
12. Iowa – Iowa found ways to win games last year in the fourth quarter, but I suspect they may have used up a good portion of their luck for this year in the process. The Hawkeyes will need better all-around performances from QB Ricky Stanzi if they are going to meet expectations this year.
13. Wisconsin – If I am picking a team not named Ohio St. to win the Big Ten this year, Wisconsin would be my pick. With a favorable schedule and John Clay back to run the ball behind the Badgers’ bruising offensive line, big
14. Miami – Time for Jacory Harris to step up. The quarterback showed flashes of brilliance last year but ultimately too many interceptions led to a downward spiral for “The U”.
15. USC – I was tempted to put the Trojans higher on the list because they still ultimately possess as much talent as anyone in the country. But the punishment handed down by the NCAA along with my questions about Lane Kiffin as a coach makes the #15 spot seem about right. I do expect a big time jump from quarterback Matt Barkley, however.
16. LSU – Les Miles is on the hot seat, but there is simply too much talent here to not have a successful season. How successful probably depends on the play of Jordan Jefferson at quarterback.
17. Florida State – The Jumbo Fisher era begins in Tallahassee with a ton of experience returning on the offensive side of the ball, including darkhorse Heisman contender Christian Ponder.
18. North Carolina – If the Tar Heels can avoid NCAA punishment, they should have a dominant defense. Butch Davis has this program back on track.
19. Oregon State – A difficult non-conference schedule and a history of starting slowly could do the Beavers in, but I expect a more focused attitude from the start and big things from the Rodgers brothers in the end.
20. Arkansas – Ryan Mallett, the one-time Michigan transfer, is getting a ton of preseason publicity and has the talent around him to put up some big numbers. Mallett certainly has the physical ability, but consider me not so sold just yet.
21. Georgia Tech – Despite losing some key pieces to their triple-option attack including running back Jonathan Dwyer, Paul Johnson’s offense will always be tough to defend.
22. West Virginia – The Mountaineers should get a big test early in a trip to LSU but Geno Smith sounds like the real deal behind center and Noel Devine returns to leave more jockstraps out on the field.
23. Notre Dame – I have too much respect for Brian Kelly as a coach and the Irish have too many weapons on offense for Kelly to play with. I think people are going to be somewhat surprised at Notre Dame’s early success.
24. South Carolina – Debated between the Gamecocks, Georgia and Auburn here but ultimately I think this is the year that Spurrier gets the South Carolina program over the hump and into a major bowl game. Of course, that depends a whole lot on the play of quarterback Stephen Garcia.
25. Penn State – I am not leaving Penn State off the list and having my mailbox filled with hate emails. But too many questions at the most important position along with an early trip to Tuscaloosa could prove disastrous for the Lions. The good news is that Penn State should be able to rely on a solid defense and Evan Royster and the ground game for most of the year.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Dixon Would Be My Starter
Today was day three of the ongoing debate in the sports-talk radio world that I am sure Pittsburghers will not hear the end of until the Steelers either win their opening game against the Atlanta Falcons or Ben Roethlisberger returns from his suspension. The debate, of course, is who should be the Steelers starting quarterback in Roethlisberger’s absence, Byron Leftwich or Dennis Dixon. The answer to me is quite simple: Dennis Dixon should be the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting quarterback until he proves otherwise.
My take has nothing to do with Dixon’s performance Saturday night in a meaningless preseason game against the Detroit Lions’ third stringers. Quite the contrary, actually, as I spent my Saturday night at a bachelor party drinking roughly 107 beers, give or take a few, hardly watching any of the Steelers exhibition, I mean preseason, game. I thought Dixon should have been named the starter the second Roethlisberger was suspended, with Leftwich brought in as insurance in case Dixon falters.
This has nothing to do with Leftwich, who has accomplished more in this league than I am guessing Dixon ever does. Leftwich, at 30-years-old, is no longer a starter in this league. He is the perfect back-up, a guy who can come in as a veteran and get the job done in case of an injury on a short-term basis. It is the same job that Charlie Batch has pretty much perfected in his time as a Steeler. Leftwich, however, has proven that he is no longer a starter in this league, at least as a viable starter for a team hoping to contend for a Super Bowl. With Dixon, the jury is still out.
It would have been much easier for Mike Tomlin and the coaching staff to turn to Leftwich in game one, or game two or whenever it became clear that Dixon was not putting the Steelers in the best position to win games if it came to that. If Leftwich falters, is Tomlin really going to feel comfortable turning the team over to an unknown in Dixon? Besides, this is a team, and more specifically an offense, built around the unique talents of its quarterback. With a shabby line and mediocre wide receivers (this is probably a bit of an understatement but the Steelers’ wide-outs are not exactly Jerry Rice and John Taylor), the Steelers offense relied heavily on Ben Roethlisberger to make big plays happen. Byron Leftwich does not have this ability, and more likely could be a sitting duck in the Steelers backfield without significant improvement in the offensive line play. With Leftwich, who WILL be the starter by the way, the Steelers will most certainly deploy a run-oriented attack, trying to keep games close and win games with their defense in Roethlisberger’s absence.
The Steelers would have used the same style with Dixon under center. But Dixon, on the other hand, would have given the Steelers the potential play-making ability with his legs that Leftwich does not have and that the offense desperately needs. Dixon showed last year in the Baltimore game that he could play this style and occasionally give the Steelers that big play with his legs. A year older and more mature, who knows, maybe Dixon could have built on that game and become a potential starter somewhere down the line in this league. Worst case scenario is that Dixon proved an incapable passer and the Steelers could have quickly turned the team over to Leftwich at that point.
It looks like it will not matter what I think, not that it ever really would or should have mattered, as Tomlin and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians seem to have made up their minds and decided to go the safer route in Byron Leftwich. If Byron can get at least two victories or more in those first four games without Roethlisberger, you will hear no complaints from this forum. I would have went with Dixon, however, and if the Steelers do indeed stumble out of the gates, there will be a lot of second guessing of Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ decision.
My take has nothing to do with Dixon’s performance Saturday night in a meaningless preseason game against the Detroit Lions’ third stringers. Quite the contrary, actually, as I spent my Saturday night at a bachelor party drinking roughly 107 beers, give or take a few, hardly watching any of the Steelers exhibition, I mean preseason, game. I thought Dixon should have been named the starter the second Roethlisberger was suspended, with Leftwich brought in as insurance in case Dixon falters.
This has nothing to do with Leftwich, who has accomplished more in this league than I am guessing Dixon ever does. Leftwich, at 30-years-old, is no longer a starter in this league. He is the perfect back-up, a guy who can come in as a veteran and get the job done in case of an injury on a short-term basis. It is the same job that Charlie Batch has pretty much perfected in his time as a Steeler. Leftwich, however, has proven that he is no longer a starter in this league, at least as a viable starter for a team hoping to contend for a Super Bowl. With Dixon, the jury is still out.
It would have been much easier for Mike Tomlin and the coaching staff to turn to Leftwich in game one, or game two or whenever it became clear that Dixon was not putting the Steelers in the best position to win games if it came to that. If Leftwich falters, is Tomlin really going to feel comfortable turning the team over to an unknown in Dixon? Besides, this is a team, and more specifically an offense, built around the unique talents of its quarterback. With a shabby line and mediocre wide receivers (this is probably a bit of an understatement but the Steelers’ wide-outs are not exactly Jerry Rice and John Taylor), the Steelers offense relied heavily on Ben Roethlisberger to make big plays happen. Byron Leftwich does not have this ability, and more likely could be a sitting duck in the Steelers backfield without significant improvement in the offensive line play. With Leftwich, who WILL be the starter by the way, the Steelers will most certainly deploy a run-oriented attack, trying to keep games close and win games with their defense in Roethlisberger’s absence.
The Steelers would have used the same style with Dixon under center. But Dixon, on the other hand, would have given the Steelers the potential play-making ability with his legs that Leftwich does not have and that the offense desperately needs. Dixon showed last year in the Baltimore game that he could play this style and occasionally give the Steelers that big play with his legs. A year older and more mature, who knows, maybe Dixon could have built on that game and become a potential starter somewhere down the line in this league. Worst case scenario is that Dixon proved an incapable passer and the Steelers could have quickly turned the team over to Leftwich at that point.
It looks like it will not matter what I think, not that it ever really would or should have mattered, as Tomlin and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians seem to have made up their minds and decided to go the safer route in Byron Leftwich. If Byron can get at least two victories or more in those first four games without Roethlisberger, you will hear no complaints from this forum. I would have went with Dixon, however, and if the Steelers do indeed stumble out of the gates, there will be a lot of second guessing of Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ decision.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Time for Pitt-Wannstedt to Take Big Step
Dave Wannstedt enters his sixth season as head coach of the Pitt football team. After enduring a couple of down years with Wannstedt as the Coach preached patience and his ability to build a program the proper way, it is no secret that the Pittsburgh football program has arrived. Following two seasons where the Panthers fell just short of a Big East Championship and a BCS Bowl berth, it is now time for the program to make that final step into Big East supremacy.
In case people have a short memory, Pitt began the Wannstedt era with three consecutive sub-par seasons of 5-6, 6-6, and 5-7. It was that final game of the 2007 season, however, that marked the beginning of a new era for Pitt football. Pitt defeated West Virginia, as if I have to mention this game in detail, 13-9 in a monumental upset that denied Coach Rich Rodriguez and the Mountaineers a trip to the National Championship, and potentially changed the landscape of the Big East for the foreseeable future.
Pitt parlayed their upset over West Virginia into a 9-4 season in 2008, a season that saw two losses in particular stand out. The first, in hindsight a game that was essentially for the Big East title, was a 28-21 loss to Cincinnati. It was a game that the Panthers fell behind 28-7 before a fourth quarter rally made the score look closer than it actually was. The second was an embarrassing offensive performance in a 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. The season had to be considered a success, however, after three consecutive losing seasons and set the stage for extremely high expectations for the 2009 team.
The 2009 team, for all of its talent and success, did not accomplish what the Panthers set out to accomplish and that was to win the Big East title and play in their first BCS Bowl since Walt Harris was manning the sidelines. In each of the big games during the 2009 season, and for most of Wannstedt’s tenure (with the notable exception of that WVU game) the Panthers have failed to live up to the occasion. This was most notable in the season-ending loss in what was the de-facto Big East title game against Cincinnati. There is no need to rehash the events of what should have been the biggest win in the Wannstedt era. That loss, however, sets the stage for what should be a no-excuse 2010 season.
It is not often, outside of the usual suspects such as Florida, Texas and the like, to set such lofty goals while breaking in a new quarterback but the talent surrounding Tino Sunseri should make the new Pitt QB’s life that much easier. Pitt returns Jonathan Baldwin, arguably the best WR in the country, as well as sure-handed Mike Shanahan and a host of other talented receivers on the outside. In the backfield, they have a guy you might have heard of in Dion Lewis and a not too shabby replacement in Ray Graham. I cannot see Sunseri being asked to do much besides play-action, throwing the deep ball and hitting crossing patterns to this talented group. Both starting tackles are back from last year as well to protect Sunseri and open holes for Heisman hopeful Lewis. There are some uncertainties on the interior of the offensive line, but as long as the Panthers, namely Sunseri, avoid costly mistakes, this offense should be explosive.
Defensively the Panthers should excel once again. They did lose both starting defensive tackles, their middle-linebacker, and both cornerbacks from the 2009 unit but Wannstedt’s ability to recruit this side of the ball has players just as talented, if not more-so in the case of middle linebacker Dan Mason, ready to step in and fill the void. Mason, along with the supremely talented defensive end pair of Jabaal Sheard and Greg Romeus should spearhead a defense that had to be somewhat embarrassed by their performance in the Big East finale last year against Cincinnati.
Looking at the Pitt roster and those of the rest of the Big East teams, there appears to be no reason that Pitt should not ascend to the top of the standings this year. Cincinnati lost its coach and is also breaking in a new quarterback. WVU has question marks on defense and at QB. Connecticut and Rutgers do not have the athletes that Pitt does. Simply put, the Panthers have the most talented team in the Conference and the coaches agreed, making Pitt a runaway choice as the favorite to win the Big East.
Pitt does have a great nonconference schedule this year with trips to Utah and Notre Dame and a showdown with Miami at Heinz Field, but those games will not determine the level of success this team has. It is time that Dave Wannstedt and the Pitt football program become the class of the Big East Conference. Anything less would be a disappointing 2010 season.
In case people have a short memory, Pitt began the Wannstedt era with three consecutive sub-par seasons of 5-6, 6-6, and 5-7. It was that final game of the 2007 season, however, that marked the beginning of a new era for Pitt football. Pitt defeated West Virginia, as if I have to mention this game in detail, 13-9 in a monumental upset that denied Coach Rich Rodriguez and the Mountaineers a trip to the National Championship, and potentially changed the landscape of the Big East for the foreseeable future.
Pitt parlayed their upset over West Virginia into a 9-4 season in 2008, a season that saw two losses in particular stand out. The first, in hindsight a game that was essentially for the Big East title, was a 28-21 loss to Cincinnati. It was a game that the Panthers fell behind 28-7 before a fourth quarter rally made the score look closer than it actually was. The second was an embarrassing offensive performance in a 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. The season had to be considered a success, however, after three consecutive losing seasons and set the stage for extremely high expectations for the 2009 team.
The 2009 team, for all of its talent and success, did not accomplish what the Panthers set out to accomplish and that was to win the Big East title and play in their first BCS Bowl since Walt Harris was manning the sidelines. In each of the big games during the 2009 season, and for most of Wannstedt’s tenure (with the notable exception of that WVU game) the Panthers have failed to live up to the occasion. This was most notable in the season-ending loss in what was the de-facto Big East title game against Cincinnati. There is no need to rehash the events of what should have been the biggest win in the Wannstedt era. That loss, however, sets the stage for what should be a no-excuse 2010 season.
It is not often, outside of the usual suspects such as Florida, Texas and the like, to set such lofty goals while breaking in a new quarterback but the talent surrounding Tino Sunseri should make the new Pitt QB’s life that much easier. Pitt returns Jonathan Baldwin, arguably the best WR in the country, as well as sure-handed Mike Shanahan and a host of other talented receivers on the outside. In the backfield, they have a guy you might have heard of in Dion Lewis and a not too shabby replacement in Ray Graham. I cannot see Sunseri being asked to do much besides play-action, throwing the deep ball and hitting crossing patterns to this talented group. Both starting tackles are back from last year as well to protect Sunseri and open holes for Heisman hopeful Lewis. There are some uncertainties on the interior of the offensive line, but as long as the Panthers, namely Sunseri, avoid costly mistakes, this offense should be explosive.
Defensively the Panthers should excel once again. They did lose both starting defensive tackles, their middle-linebacker, and both cornerbacks from the 2009 unit but Wannstedt’s ability to recruit this side of the ball has players just as talented, if not more-so in the case of middle linebacker Dan Mason, ready to step in and fill the void. Mason, along with the supremely talented defensive end pair of Jabaal Sheard and Greg Romeus should spearhead a defense that had to be somewhat embarrassed by their performance in the Big East finale last year against Cincinnati.
Looking at the Pitt roster and those of the rest of the Big East teams, there appears to be no reason that Pitt should not ascend to the top of the standings this year. Cincinnati lost its coach and is also breaking in a new quarterback. WVU has question marks on defense and at QB. Connecticut and Rutgers do not have the athletes that Pitt does. Simply put, the Panthers have the most talented team in the Conference and the coaches agreed, making Pitt a runaway choice as the favorite to win the Big East.
Pitt does have a great nonconference schedule this year with trips to Utah and Notre Dame and a showdown with Miami at Heinz Field, but those games will not determine the level of success this team has. It is time that Dave Wannstedt and the Pitt football program become the class of the Big East Conference. Anything less would be a disappointing 2010 season.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Six-Pack of NFL Preseason Thoughts
With training camp in full gear and the first preseason game now behind us, here are some of my early thoughts on the 2010 season across the NFL. As we move closer to the actual start of the season, I am sure many of these points will be hit on again. Here we go…
· Many people are making a very big deal out of the Steelers first four games without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. This is coming primarily from the perceived notion that the Bengals and Ravens are going to be very good. I, for one, am not worried. If the Steelers can manage a 2-2 record, something that I believe is easily attainable (the Steelers will be the favorite in three of their opening four games, and potentially all four with the Ravens at home depending on how they have played), it will set them up to be in prime position for a playoff run when Roethlisberger returns. The Bengals and Ravens won 10 and 9 games last year, respectively, and have made some slight upgrades in the offseason, but none that should have Steelers’ fans worried that they will run away with the division.
· The Steelers will return Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith back to a defense that was one of the greatest defensive units ever only two years ago. The Steelers have also brought back veterans Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden to add stability, depth and flexibility on the defense. Those additions are far superior to the additions of Terrell Owens in Cincinnati and Anquan Boldin in Baltimore. Cincinnati’s play will be heavily dependent on Carson Palmer, who has not looked like the same quarterback since Kimo von Oelhoffen ripped up every ligament in his knee a few years back. Similarly, the Ravens high expectations are dependent on the play of QB Joe Flacco. Flacco has shown flashes but is far from a sure-thing at the most important position. Without a return to the old Palmer or a significant upgrade in Flacco’s play, the Ravens and Bengals will be right around the 9 or 10 win mark again, leaving the Steelers in fine shape when their own QB returns, a guy that they know will give them superb play.
· I loved the Redskins acquisition of Donovan McNabb and believe he has plenty left in the tank. That is no knock on Jason Campbell either who I also believe can be an average to slightly-above average NFL quarterback, and who I also think was a good grab by the Raiders, potentially allowing the Black Hole to return to respectability. Philadelphia, meanwhile, could be left kicking themselves if they end up the odd-man out in a playoff race after trading their franchise cornerstone to a divisional rival. Andy Reid is an excellent offensive coach, but we will soon find out if he is right about fourth-year quarterback Kevin Kolb. I certainly have some doubts. More on McNabb in an upcoming feature post.
· The AFC looks far superior to the NFC on paper this year. In the NFC, only the winner out West will make the playoffs and I can see only eight possible teams in the hunt for the other five playoff spots (Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta and the four NFC East teams). Meanwhile, the only AFC teams that I think you can completely write-off in the preseason are the Browns, Bills and Chiefs.
· In the NFC, only the Saints and Cowboys have the look of Super Bowl contenders at this point. I think Green Bay, New York and Minnesota (obviously dependent on you know who) could potentially join them. Minnesota would be my favorite if Favre plays, and I think he does return at some point, but as long as Tavaris Jackson is the man flinging balls for the Vikes, I give them no shot at a Super Bowl appearance.
· It would not surprise me in the AFC, however, if any one of a number of teams made an appearance in Super Bowl XLV (that’s 45 for those that aren’t up to speed on their Roman numerals). If I told you that Indianapolis, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, New York (Jets), Cincinnati or even Pittsburgh made the Super Bowl this year you would not be shocked. For my money, it really only comes down to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. It would take an unbelievable effort to knock two or three of these guys out of the playoffs in succession without superb quarterback play of your own, something that the Jets found out the hard way last postseason. That is why Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez will be the three guys I am watching most closely as the season begins.
· Many people are making a very big deal out of the Steelers first four games without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. This is coming primarily from the perceived notion that the Bengals and Ravens are going to be very good. I, for one, am not worried. If the Steelers can manage a 2-2 record, something that I believe is easily attainable (the Steelers will be the favorite in three of their opening four games, and potentially all four with the Ravens at home depending on how they have played), it will set them up to be in prime position for a playoff run when Roethlisberger returns. The Bengals and Ravens won 10 and 9 games last year, respectively, and have made some slight upgrades in the offseason, but none that should have Steelers’ fans worried that they will run away with the division.
· The Steelers will return Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith back to a defense that was one of the greatest defensive units ever only two years ago. The Steelers have also brought back veterans Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden to add stability, depth and flexibility on the defense. Those additions are far superior to the additions of Terrell Owens in Cincinnati and Anquan Boldin in Baltimore. Cincinnati’s play will be heavily dependent on Carson Palmer, who has not looked like the same quarterback since Kimo von Oelhoffen ripped up every ligament in his knee a few years back. Similarly, the Ravens high expectations are dependent on the play of QB Joe Flacco. Flacco has shown flashes but is far from a sure-thing at the most important position. Without a return to the old Palmer or a significant upgrade in Flacco’s play, the Ravens and Bengals will be right around the 9 or 10 win mark again, leaving the Steelers in fine shape when their own QB returns, a guy that they know will give them superb play.
· I loved the Redskins acquisition of Donovan McNabb and believe he has plenty left in the tank. That is no knock on Jason Campbell either who I also believe can be an average to slightly-above average NFL quarterback, and who I also think was a good grab by the Raiders, potentially allowing the Black Hole to return to respectability. Philadelphia, meanwhile, could be left kicking themselves if they end up the odd-man out in a playoff race after trading their franchise cornerstone to a divisional rival. Andy Reid is an excellent offensive coach, but we will soon find out if he is right about fourth-year quarterback Kevin Kolb. I certainly have some doubts. More on McNabb in an upcoming feature post.
· The AFC looks far superior to the NFC on paper this year. In the NFC, only the winner out West will make the playoffs and I can see only eight possible teams in the hunt for the other five playoff spots (Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta and the four NFC East teams). Meanwhile, the only AFC teams that I think you can completely write-off in the preseason are the Browns, Bills and Chiefs.
· In the NFC, only the Saints and Cowboys have the look of Super Bowl contenders at this point. I think Green Bay, New York and Minnesota (obviously dependent on you know who) could potentially join them. Minnesota would be my favorite if Favre plays, and I think he does return at some point, but as long as Tavaris Jackson is the man flinging balls for the Vikes, I give them no shot at a Super Bowl appearance.
· It would not surprise me in the AFC, however, if any one of a number of teams made an appearance in Super Bowl XLV (that’s 45 for those that aren’t up to speed on their Roman numerals). If I told you that Indianapolis, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, New York (Jets), Cincinnati or even Pittsburgh made the Super Bowl this year you would not be shocked. For my money, it really only comes down to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. It would take an unbelievable effort to knock two or three of these guys out of the playoffs in succession without superb quarterback play of your own, something that the Jets found out the hard way last postseason. That is why Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez will be the three guys I am watching most closely as the season begins.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Friday Fantasy Football Link
Because it’s Friday, because it has been a long-summer week, because the sports world is a bit slow right now, because you’re probably still digesting the 2,600 plus words on the baseball season from earlier this week, and quite frankly because nothing really has me excited to write about right now, we’re going to take the weekend off before kicking off some football topics next week.
Before we say adios to the week, however, one thing that does have people excited about that is right around the corner is fantasy football. I know everyone has their own ways of fixing, or more appropriately, improving fantasy football. Check out some ideas from the Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, on how he would change fantasy football going forward: Simmons' Fantasy Football Improvements.
Before we say adios to the week, however, one thing that does have people excited about that is right around the corner is fantasy football. I know everyone has their own ways of fixing, or more appropriately, improving fantasy football. Check out some ideas from the Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, on how he would change fantasy football going forward: Simmons' Fantasy Football Improvements.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Evaluating the Buccos' Trades
Major League Baseball’s trade deadline came and went on Saturday and there were a number of deals made as the contenders tried to beef up their rosters for the stretch run. In Pittsburgh, the end of July usually marks the purge of the Pirates’ roster, as the team is usually out of contention and looks to move its veteran assets for younger talent. This year was no different, though not to the extreme it has been the past couple of years, but the Pirates made three deadline deals all with the future in mind.
Neal Huntington and his staff, all-in-all, did a pretty nice job this deadline, moving veteran relief pitchers for some pieces that could potentially help the Pirates down the line. The one deadline deal, however, that is quite possibly the biggest black mark on Huntington’s resume to date did not involve the Pirates at all. We will get to that in a second, but first, let’s take a look at the three trades the Pirates were involved with.
· The Pirates traded veteran reliever D.J. Carrasco and veterans Bobby Crosby and Ryan Church to Arizona for catcher Chris Snyder and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco, as well as $3 million in cash to help offset Snyder’s total of $8.2 million due through the end of 2011. In short, I love this move by the Pirates. Between the $1.2 million remaining in cost on the three players moved, the Pirates essentially picked up a solid major league catcher for the 2011 season for approximately $4 million and received a throw-in shortstop prospect to boot.
There is really nothing to be said of the three departed players. Church and Crosby were busts as free agent acquisitions and offered no value to the Pirates this year or in the future and Carrasco, while being quite effective this year out of the bullpen, is easily replaceable. In return, the Pirates picked up a potential starting catcher in Chris Snyder who is much better than his .231 average would indicate. For proof, Snyder’s three year average .OPS of .770 would rank 6th among National League catchers this year and he is known as a solid defensive catcher, something Pirates’ fans have not seen in some time. Snyder will also give the Pirates some flexibility in moving Ryan Doumit to either right field or first base, or even the option of moving him in another trade this offseason.
Ciriaco is known as a good defensive shortstop prospect with not much of a stick, as his career .659 OPS in the minors would indicate. Even still, with the Pirates glaring hole at the shortstop position throughout the organization, taking flyers on guys like this is a smart approach.
· The Pirates then sent closer Octavio Dotel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher James McDonald and minor league outfielder Andrew Lambo. Those around Pittsburgh were calling this a salary dump, while those nationally were calling this a nice trade by the Pirates. I fall in the second camp on this one, as a veteran closer makes no sense on a young team that is going to be lucky to win 60 games. McDonald is a 25-year-old pitcher with nice raw stuff and the ability to start while Lambo was once thought of as a high-end prospect until a drug suspension earlier this season derailed his progress some. Both are great examples of buy-low candidates who could become a significant part of the Pirates future. For more, check out Keith Law’s take on this trade here: Dodgers give up too much for Dotel.
· The third and final trade made by the Pirates was giving up another veteran reliever in Javier Lopez to the San Francisco Giants for a pair of 27-year-olds, pitcher Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker. Lopez, while very effective as a left-handed arm out of the bullpen, is once again an unneeded commodity on a young, losing team. I like that the Pirates sold him at peak value for a couple of players, while not being top prospects, could potentially help them somewhere in the future. Martinez and Bowker have both shown some success in the minors and, who knows, maybe one or even both could become late bloomers in the big leagues.
As I said before, all-in-all, I like the three moves that the Pirates made at the deadline. I was not the only one who approved either, as Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory, gave the Pirates an A minus on all three of their deals. You can read more of Szymborski’s thoughts here: Grading the deadline deals.
There was one trade, however, that may have been off the radar of Pirates’ fans that certainly got my attention. The Washington Nationals traded closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos and left-hander Joe Testa. Despite having a bit of a down year, Ramos is still one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. Prior to this season, Ramos was a consensus top 100 prospect throughout baseball. Capps, as everyone will recall, was not tendered by the Pirates for arbitration, and indications were that the sides were only roughly $500 thousand apart. Huntington’s hard-line stance has now cost the Pirates a chance to acquire a top prospect such as Ramos.
This criticism should not come as a surprise to any of my readers as I went on numerous times in the preseason on why this was a terrible move on Huntington’s part. For all of the criticism Huntington has received, most of it undeserving at this point, this line of events should be getting more attention. There was no excuse at the time to let Capps walk, and the Nationals ability to spin Capps into such a valuable commodity only heightens the poor decision. So while I believe the actual moves made by the Pirates were a positive, I cannot help but think of the Capps’ events as the defining moment of this trade deadline.
Just like the past 17, soon to be 18 seasons, the Pirates have come out a loser.
Neal Huntington and his staff, all-in-all, did a pretty nice job this deadline, moving veteran relief pitchers for some pieces that could potentially help the Pirates down the line. The one deadline deal, however, that is quite possibly the biggest black mark on Huntington’s resume to date did not involve the Pirates at all. We will get to that in a second, but first, let’s take a look at the three trades the Pirates were involved with.
· The Pirates traded veteran reliever D.J. Carrasco and veterans Bobby Crosby and Ryan Church to Arizona for catcher Chris Snyder and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco, as well as $3 million in cash to help offset Snyder’s total of $8.2 million due through the end of 2011. In short, I love this move by the Pirates. Between the $1.2 million remaining in cost on the three players moved, the Pirates essentially picked up a solid major league catcher for the 2011 season for approximately $4 million and received a throw-in shortstop prospect to boot.
There is really nothing to be said of the three departed players. Church and Crosby were busts as free agent acquisitions and offered no value to the Pirates this year or in the future and Carrasco, while being quite effective this year out of the bullpen, is easily replaceable. In return, the Pirates picked up a potential starting catcher in Chris Snyder who is much better than his .231 average would indicate. For proof, Snyder’s three year average .OPS of .770 would rank 6th among National League catchers this year and he is known as a solid defensive catcher, something Pirates’ fans have not seen in some time. Snyder will also give the Pirates some flexibility in moving Ryan Doumit to either right field or first base, or even the option of moving him in another trade this offseason.
Ciriaco is known as a good defensive shortstop prospect with not much of a stick, as his career .659 OPS in the minors would indicate. Even still, with the Pirates glaring hole at the shortstop position throughout the organization, taking flyers on guys like this is a smart approach.
· The Pirates then sent closer Octavio Dotel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher James McDonald and minor league outfielder Andrew Lambo. Those around Pittsburgh were calling this a salary dump, while those nationally were calling this a nice trade by the Pirates. I fall in the second camp on this one, as a veteran closer makes no sense on a young team that is going to be lucky to win 60 games. McDonald is a 25-year-old pitcher with nice raw stuff and the ability to start while Lambo was once thought of as a high-end prospect until a drug suspension earlier this season derailed his progress some. Both are great examples of buy-low candidates who could become a significant part of the Pirates future. For more, check out Keith Law’s take on this trade here: Dodgers give up too much for Dotel.
· The third and final trade made by the Pirates was giving up another veteran reliever in Javier Lopez to the San Francisco Giants for a pair of 27-year-olds, pitcher Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker. Lopez, while very effective as a left-handed arm out of the bullpen, is once again an unneeded commodity on a young, losing team. I like that the Pirates sold him at peak value for a couple of players, while not being top prospects, could potentially help them somewhere in the future. Martinez and Bowker have both shown some success in the minors and, who knows, maybe one or even both could become late bloomers in the big leagues.
As I said before, all-in-all, I like the three moves that the Pirates made at the deadline. I was not the only one who approved either, as Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory, gave the Pirates an A minus on all three of their deals. You can read more of Szymborski’s thoughts here: Grading the deadline deals.
There was one trade, however, that may have been off the radar of Pirates’ fans that certainly got my attention. The Washington Nationals traded closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos and left-hander Joe Testa. Despite having a bit of a down year, Ramos is still one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. Prior to this season, Ramos was a consensus top 100 prospect throughout baseball. Capps, as everyone will recall, was not tendered by the Pirates for arbitration, and indications were that the sides were only roughly $500 thousand apart. Huntington’s hard-line stance has now cost the Pirates a chance to acquire a top prospect such as Ramos.
This criticism should not come as a surprise to any of my readers as I went on numerous times in the preseason on why this was a terrible move on Huntington’s part. For all of the criticism Huntington has received, most of it undeserving at this point, this line of events should be getting more attention. There was no excuse at the time to let Capps walk, and the Nationals ability to spin Capps into such a valuable commodity only heightens the poor decision. So while I believe the actual moves made by the Pirates were a positive, I cannot help but think of the Capps’ events as the defining moment of this trade deadline.
Just like the past 17, soon to be 18 seasons, the Pirates have come out a loser.
Monday, August 2, 2010
MLB Mid-Season Chat
Better late than never as they say. Here's the mid-season chat some buddies and I had about two weeks ago discussing all-things Major League Baseball. Joining us once again are Curt and Tom, two die-hard baseball guys that have entirely too much time on their hands to look up Brandon Boesch' OPS+. Enjoy...
Me: Ok Guys, welcome to the post All-Star break chat. Thanks for joining us once again. Let's just dive right in to what everyone likes to talk about....surprises. What are your biggest first half surprises?
Tom: It has to be the Padres. They're everything people thought the Mariners were going to be.
Me: I know somebody is dying to mention the Reds in first place, well now second I guess.
Tom: I thought you said 'surprises'?
Curt: Have to say Padres, it is somewhat legit as well. It’s not like the D-Backs a couple years ago or Mariners last year. I still don't think they are going to win it but see no reason they can't be there the whole way though.
Me: Yea, I guess that is going to be the common answer. Have to like their young arms, but can they really sustain this with one legitimate hitter in the line-up?
Tom: Chase Headley has come on the past few weeks after a tough June. Nobody in the lineup has legitimate 20-HR power, including Headley. Adrian Gonzalez shouldn't see another pitch all season from the Rockies and the like.
Curt: He took Haren the opposite way in SD the other night. That can't happen all the time.
Me: How about in the AL....Rays are somewhat surprising. We all know they had the talent, but not sure anyone saw them doing this well
Tom: The Rangers are more surprising than the Rays I think. They've taken a guy throwing in Japan and put him into the rotation for a 9-5 record.
Curt: I liked the Rays before the season. I think that division has been pretty much as expected after the Rays got off to that great start.
Me: The Rangers have gone out and acquired Cliff Lee.
Curt: White Sox are more unlikey I think. Freddy Garcia has 9 wins. Peavy has stunk and is now out and they are still in first.
Me: Well you and I were both on board with the Rangers preseason Tom, but that was more a byproduct of their division. They have played very well, and Vlad looks like a new man and Josh Hamilton is healthy. Rangers are going to be dangerous in the postseason.
Me: I, cough cough, also picked the White Sox preseason, but I am as surprised as anyone they have overcome that terrible start. A lot of credit has to go to Ozzie there.
Tom: The White Sox still have too much that can go wrong with them to be patting yourself on the back.
Me: That division is coming down to the last week I think between all three teams.
Tom: Minnesota is still my pick.
Me: Detroit, who I would like to pick, can't win a game on the road though.
Curt: I’d predict Twinkies as well. Should be a good race though, could be quite a few.
Me: That was a good segue to my next topic anyhow. There are some great pennant races shaping up, how do you see them finishing?
Tom: Yankees-Twinkies-Rangers-Rays
Curt: Phillies are in big trouble. I would not have believed that before the season. Hopefully, for the Reds and Braves fans in the room, they just think they are unlucky.
Tom: Braves (NL pennant)-Redlegs-Rockies-and one of the Sans out West.
Me: Preseason we all had the Cards, Phillies and Braves, I went Dodgers, you guys went Rockies. In the AL, all had the Yanks and Red Sox, you two Twins, me White Sox and Curt was the lone Angels backer against Tom and I with the Rangers.
Tom: San Fran or San Diego for the NL wild card.
Curt: The NL is really tough to predict I think.
Tom: Just think, if Atlanta still had Neftali and Elvis (Editor’s note, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, two young studs in the middle of the Rangers surge, were traded by the Braves in the Mark Teixeira deal.)
Me: I think the Phils will snap out of it and get the wildcard. The NL West is going to beat each other up, and the Rockies find a way once again.
Tom: Cardinals wouldn't be a bad bet. They've still got a bunch of games against some very bad NL Central teams.
Curt: AL - NYY, Rays, Twinkies, Rangers. NL Bravos, Reds, Rocks, Cards. The NL West could beat each other up. I agree.
Tom: The Cardinals have the 2nd easiest 2nd half schedule.
Curt: Say the Cards get to play the Astros and Pirates 20 times still, I bet that’s why.
Tom: Yep. The Reds have the easiest remaining schedule. And the Reds #4 and #5 starters out of the break have at 14-3 combined record.
Curt: What if the Reds face Oswalt 3-4 times though? (Editor’s note: This chat was done pre-Oswalt to the Phillies.) They have to play Houston a ton, because they should almost be done with the Pirates. Still easy?
Tom: Assuming Oswalt is still on the Astros...
Curt: Ya, maybe a Card. I doubt he gets moved though. (Editor’s note: Wrong on that one, Curt!)
Tom: The Reds finish their playoff push with Pittsburgh, Arizona, Houston and Milwaukee from September 10 to 22.
Curt: Arizona, that’s a pretty nice gift. They may be the worst.
Me: Very easily could be their path in. They have some depth with the arms now too. Like Curt said, NL is very tough.
Me: Final predictions?
Tom: Cards at WC. Talked myself into it.
Me: I'm sticking with my AL preseason picks by the way....hope I look very smart at the end of the year. Going to need a big push and some luck for the Red Sox. I think I have the Reds just barely missing, and the Phils snatching the WC. But I will be rooting hard for the Redlegs just for you Tom.
Tom: Thanks. There is still room on the wagon.
Curt: I think the numbers are in their favor for the WC, Braves, Reds, Rox, Cards. NYY, Twins, Rangers, Rays. The AL central is interesting at least.
Tom: The Twins haven't had Morneau for some time and Mauer is banged up too. Those guys will come back and everything will be fine.
Me: Ok, let's wrap it up with some awards. I put mine on the site Friday. Who do you guys have as the midseason major award winners and who do you have winning them at the end?
Curt: Votto will be the NL MVP. I like Josh Johnson's momentum and the voters don't look at just W's anymore.
Me: If you missed it, my MVPs were Miggy Cabrera and Pujols, Cy Youngs were Ubaldo (by a nose on Josh Johnson) and Price, Managers were Bud Black and Ozzie Guillen and ROYs were Heyward and Boesch.
Curt: Votto has gotten big hits all season, easy to remember them.
Tom: Votto and Cano for MVP. Cano is the best hitter having an MVP-esque season on the Yankees. Impossible to ignore.
Curt: ROY, I’d go with Heyward but I think he may wear down and get passed by Strasburg. Of course Strasburg will get shut down.
Me: if Miggy comes close to the Triple Crown, he's going to win it though. Votto and Pujols were neck and neck on my ballot.
Curt: It’s a shame for Morneau, he was killing it.
Tom: Cy Youngs will be Ubaldo with over 20 wins and dependent on who makes the playoffs out of the AL Central will determine that Cy Young.
Me: I'll say NL MVP should go to the winner of the NL Central, pretty easy tiebreaker there. I like Josh Johnson too, unless Ubaldo wins 22 or 23....which I thnk he will.
Tom: I'd like to say Liriano for AL Cy Young because he has been so fantastic and Cliff Lee is now in Texas.
Me: Give me your final picks for the MVPs and Cy Youngs....and if you feel like it, ROY as well.
Curt: I’d go with Miggy for MVP, they should be in a tight race for a while, that helps.
Tom: Votto and Cano, Ubaldo and Liriano( with close to 20 wins).
Curt: Have to go Lee in AL I think.
Me: Lee's a good pick. Should have some good momentum if he keeps winning.
Curt: Throws a complete game almost every time it seems like. 7 walks in 121 IP
Curt: My final votes are Votto, Miggy, Lee, Johnson.
Tom: ROY, I'm sticking with my Neftali Felix pick and NL ROY I'll go with Heyward in possibly an undeserving ROY win.
Curt: Feliz is a ROY?
Me: I don't think Feliz is beating out Boesch unless his numbers fall off a cliff.
Tom: Feliz, yes.
Tom: Feliz has to save one more game than Soria to lead the AL, Boesch won't hit the same.
Curt: Boesch OPS + is 151, he could be terrible for a while and still win it, as you said.
Me: Ok guys, I know people are busy in the summer and don't have time to read us go on all day about baseball, which I know we could, so give me your world Series winner as we stand today and we'll call it a wrap.
Me: I go Yankees.
Curt: Yanks, have the best team. Still take them.
Tom: Reds. (Editor’s note: No favoritism there!)
Me: We'll end it on Tom picking the Reds....ahhhh for us Pirate fans, we can only dream of the day we can pick the Buccos to win the World Series in July!
Me: Ok Guys, welcome to the post All-Star break chat. Thanks for joining us once again. Let's just dive right in to what everyone likes to talk about....surprises. What are your biggest first half surprises?
Tom: It has to be the Padres. They're everything people thought the Mariners were going to be.
Me: I know somebody is dying to mention the Reds in first place, well now second I guess.
Tom: I thought you said 'surprises'?
Curt: Have to say Padres, it is somewhat legit as well. It’s not like the D-Backs a couple years ago or Mariners last year. I still don't think they are going to win it but see no reason they can't be there the whole way though.
Me: Yea, I guess that is going to be the common answer. Have to like their young arms, but can they really sustain this with one legitimate hitter in the line-up?
Tom: Chase Headley has come on the past few weeks after a tough June. Nobody in the lineup has legitimate 20-HR power, including Headley. Adrian Gonzalez shouldn't see another pitch all season from the Rockies and the like.
Curt: He took Haren the opposite way in SD the other night. That can't happen all the time.
Me: How about in the AL....Rays are somewhat surprising. We all know they had the talent, but not sure anyone saw them doing this well
Tom: The Rangers are more surprising than the Rays I think. They've taken a guy throwing in Japan and put him into the rotation for a 9-5 record.
Curt: I liked the Rays before the season. I think that division has been pretty much as expected after the Rays got off to that great start.
Me: The Rangers have gone out and acquired Cliff Lee.
Curt: White Sox are more unlikey I think. Freddy Garcia has 9 wins. Peavy has stunk and is now out and they are still in first.
Me: Well you and I were both on board with the Rangers preseason Tom, but that was more a byproduct of their division. They have played very well, and Vlad looks like a new man and Josh Hamilton is healthy. Rangers are going to be dangerous in the postseason.
Me: I, cough cough, also picked the White Sox preseason, but I am as surprised as anyone they have overcome that terrible start. A lot of credit has to go to Ozzie there.
Tom: The White Sox still have too much that can go wrong with them to be patting yourself on the back.
Me: That division is coming down to the last week I think between all three teams.
Tom: Minnesota is still my pick.
Me: Detroit, who I would like to pick, can't win a game on the road though.
Curt: I’d predict Twinkies as well. Should be a good race though, could be quite a few.
Me: That was a good segue to my next topic anyhow. There are some great pennant races shaping up, how do you see them finishing?
Tom: Yankees-Twinkies-Rangers-Rays
Curt: Phillies are in big trouble. I would not have believed that before the season. Hopefully, for the Reds and Braves fans in the room, they just think they are unlucky.
Tom: Braves (NL pennant)-Redlegs-Rockies-and one of the Sans out West.
Me: Preseason we all had the Cards, Phillies and Braves, I went Dodgers, you guys went Rockies. In the AL, all had the Yanks and Red Sox, you two Twins, me White Sox and Curt was the lone Angels backer against Tom and I with the Rangers.
Tom: San Fran or San Diego for the NL wild card.
Curt: The NL is really tough to predict I think.
Tom: Just think, if Atlanta still had Neftali and Elvis (Editor’s note, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, two young studs in the middle of the Rangers surge, were traded by the Braves in the Mark Teixeira deal.)
Me: I think the Phils will snap out of it and get the wildcard. The NL West is going to beat each other up, and the Rockies find a way once again.
Tom: Cardinals wouldn't be a bad bet. They've still got a bunch of games against some very bad NL Central teams.
Curt: AL - NYY, Rays, Twinkies, Rangers. NL Bravos, Reds, Rocks, Cards. The NL West could beat each other up. I agree.
Tom: The Cardinals have the 2nd easiest 2nd half schedule.
Curt: Say the Cards get to play the Astros and Pirates 20 times still, I bet that’s why.
Tom: Yep. The Reds have the easiest remaining schedule. And the Reds #4 and #5 starters out of the break have at 14-3 combined record.
Curt: What if the Reds face Oswalt 3-4 times though? (Editor’s note: This chat was done pre-Oswalt to the Phillies.) They have to play Houston a ton, because they should almost be done with the Pirates. Still easy?
Tom: Assuming Oswalt is still on the Astros...
Curt: Ya, maybe a Card. I doubt he gets moved though. (Editor’s note: Wrong on that one, Curt!)
Tom: The Reds finish their playoff push with Pittsburgh, Arizona, Houston and Milwaukee from September 10 to 22.
Curt: Arizona, that’s a pretty nice gift. They may be the worst.
Me: Very easily could be their path in. They have some depth with the arms now too. Like Curt said, NL is very tough.
Me: Final predictions?
Tom: Cards at WC. Talked myself into it.
Me: I'm sticking with my AL preseason picks by the way....hope I look very smart at the end of the year. Going to need a big push and some luck for the Red Sox. I think I have the Reds just barely missing, and the Phils snatching the WC. But I will be rooting hard for the Redlegs just for you Tom.
Tom: Thanks. There is still room on the wagon.
Curt: I think the numbers are in their favor for the WC, Braves, Reds, Rox, Cards. NYY, Twins, Rangers, Rays. The AL central is interesting at least.
Tom: The Twins haven't had Morneau for some time and Mauer is banged up too. Those guys will come back and everything will be fine.
Me: Ok, let's wrap it up with some awards. I put mine on the site Friday. Who do you guys have as the midseason major award winners and who do you have winning them at the end?
Curt: Votto will be the NL MVP. I like Josh Johnson's momentum and the voters don't look at just W's anymore.
Me: If you missed it, my MVPs were Miggy Cabrera and Pujols, Cy Youngs were Ubaldo (by a nose on Josh Johnson) and Price, Managers were Bud Black and Ozzie Guillen and ROYs were Heyward and Boesch.
Curt: Votto has gotten big hits all season, easy to remember them.
Tom: Votto and Cano for MVP. Cano is the best hitter having an MVP-esque season on the Yankees. Impossible to ignore.
Curt: ROY, I’d go with Heyward but I think he may wear down and get passed by Strasburg. Of course Strasburg will get shut down.
Me: if Miggy comes close to the Triple Crown, he's going to win it though. Votto and Pujols were neck and neck on my ballot.
Curt: It’s a shame for Morneau, he was killing it.
Tom: Cy Youngs will be Ubaldo with over 20 wins and dependent on who makes the playoffs out of the AL Central will determine that Cy Young.
Me: I'll say NL MVP should go to the winner of the NL Central, pretty easy tiebreaker there. I like Josh Johnson too, unless Ubaldo wins 22 or 23....which I thnk he will.
Tom: I'd like to say Liriano for AL Cy Young because he has been so fantastic and Cliff Lee is now in Texas.
Me: Give me your final picks for the MVPs and Cy Youngs....and if you feel like it, ROY as well.
Curt: I’d go with Miggy for MVP, they should be in a tight race for a while, that helps.
Tom: Votto and Cano, Ubaldo and Liriano( with close to 20 wins).
Curt: Have to go Lee in AL I think.
Me: Lee's a good pick. Should have some good momentum if he keeps winning.
Curt: Throws a complete game almost every time it seems like. 7 walks in 121 IP
Curt: My final votes are Votto, Miggy, Lee, Johnson.
Tom: ROY, I'm sticking with my Neftali Felix pick and NL ROY I'll go with Heyward in possibly an undeserving ROY win.
Curt: Feliz is a ROY?
Me: I don't think Feliz is beating out Boesch unless his numbers fall off a cliff.
Tom: Feliz, yes.
Tom: Feliz has to save one more game than Soria to lead the AL, Boesch won't hit the same.
Curt: Boesch OPS + is 151, he could be terrible for a while and still win it, as you said.
Me: Ok guys, I know people are busy in the summer and don't have time to read us go on all day about baseball, which I know we could, so give me your world Series winner as we stand today and we'll call it a wrap.
Me: I go Yankees.
Curt: Yanks, have the best team. Still take them.
Tom: Reds. (Editor’s note: No favoritism there!)
Me: We'll end it on Tom picking the Reds....ahhhh for us Pirate fans, we can only dream of the day we can pick the Buccos to win the World Series in July!
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