Six-Pack of NFL Preseason Thoughts

With training camp in full gear and the first preseason game now behind us, here are some of my early thoughts on the 2010 season across the NFL. As we move closer to the actual start of the season, I am sure many of these points will be hit on again. Here we go…

· Many people are making a very big deal out of the Steelers first four games without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. This is coming primarily from the perceived notion that the Bengals and Ravens are going to be very good. I, for one, am not worried. If the Steelers can manage a 2-2 record, something that I believe is easily attainable (the Steelers will be the favorite in three of their opening four games, and potentially all four with the Ravens at home depending on how they have played), it will set them up to be in prime position for a playoff run when Roethlisberger returns. The Bengals and Ravens won 10 and 9 games last year, respectively, and have made some slight upgrades in the offseason, but none that should have Steelers’ fans worried that they will run away with the division.

· The Steelers will return Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith back to a defense that was one of the greatest defensive units ever only two years ago. The Steelers have also brought back veterans Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden to add stability, depth and flexibility on the defense. Those additions are far superior to the additions of Terrell Owens in Cincinnati and Anquan Boldin in Baltimore. Cincinnati’s play will be heavily dependent on Carson Palmer, who has not looked like the same quarterback since Kimo von Oelhoffen ripped up every ligament in his knee a few years back. Similarly, the Ravens high expectations are dependent on the play of QB Joe Flacco. Flacco has shown flashes but is far from a sure-thing at the most important position. Without a return to the old Palmer or a significant upgrade in Flacco’s play, the Ravens and Bengals will be right around the 9 or 10 win mark again, leaving the Steelers in fine shape when their own QB returns, a guy that they know will give them superb play.

· I loved the Redskins acquisition of Donovan McNabb and believe he has plenty left in the tank. That is no knock on Jason Campbell either who I also believe can be an average to slightly-above average NFL quarterback, and who I also think was a good grab by the Raiders, potentially allowing the Black Hole to return to respectability. Philadelphia, meanwhile, could be left kicking themselves if they end up the odd-man out in a playoff race after trading their franchise cornerstone to a divisional rival. Andy Reid is an excellent offensive coach, but we will soon find out if he is right about fourth-year quarterback Kevin Kolb. I certainly have some doubts. More on McNabb in an upcoming feature post.

· The AFC looks far superior to the NFC on paper this year. In the NFC, only the winner out West will make the playoffs and I can see only eight possible teams in the hunt for the other five playoff spots (Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta and the four NFC East teams). Meanwhile, the only AFC teams that I think you can completely write-off in the preseason are the Browns, Bills and Chiefs.

· In the NFC, only the Saints and Cowboys have the look of Super Bowl contenders at this point. I think Green Bay, New York and Minnesota (obviously dependent on you know who) could potentially join them. Minnesota would be my favorite if Favre plays, and I think he does return at some point, but as long as Tavaris Jackson is the man flinging balls for the Vikes, I give them no shot at a Super Bowl appearance.

· It would not surprise me in the AFC, however, if any one of a number of teams made an appearance in Super Bowl XLV (that’s 45 for those that aren’t up to speed on their Roman numerals). If I told you that Indianapolis, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, New York (Jets), Cincinnati or even Pittsburgh made the Super Bowl this year you would not be shocked. For my money, it really only comes down to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. It would take an unbelievable effort to knock two or three of these guys out of the playoffs in succession without superb quarterback play of your own, something that the Jets found out the hard way last postseason. That is why Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez will be the three guys I am watching most closely as the season begins.