Pirates Showed Improvement - Look to Next Year

The Pirates wrap up a season that was once filled with promise tonight in Milwaukee looking to avoid 90 losses for the seventh straight season. One thing they will not avoid is their 19th consecutive losing season, a record for all of the major sports leagues. Despite the disappointing end to the season, currently going 19-42 after they were in first place in the division after 100 games with a 53-47 record, a win tonight would still have the Pirates improving by 16 games over last season. (Note: Before the season I optimistically predicted the Pirates to finish 70-92 so they have even exceeded my expectations.) Even with a loss, and I do expect the Pirates to lose as the Brewers need a win to lock in the #2 seed in the NL playoffs, they would have improved over last season’s league worst record by 15 games. (Editor’s note: Article was completed before the Pirates loss in the season finale.) Only Arizona and Milwaukee have improved more than the Pirates did from last season and both of those teams will be playing in October. That just goes to show how bad the Pirates truly were a year ago and how much work is left to be done.

The team’s improvement is seemingly forgotten by many Pirates fans because of how truly badly the team has played over the final two plus months of the season. There were, however, many positives to take from this season, not the least of which was a general interest and passion returning to the team’s fanbase after a tremendous first half of the season. More positives included Andrew McCutchen solidifying himself as an emerging star despite his drop off in the second half; the establishment of Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Charlie Morton as legitimate big league starters and some, albeit small, amount of hope from Brad Lincoln; Joel Hanrahan’s maturation into one of the league’s best closers; Neil Walker proving that last year was no fluke; Neal Huntington’s ability to assemble a bullpen on the cheap; Jose Tabata’s no-lose contract extension and limited, though continued improvement; and a strong start to the career of Alex Presley in a limited sample size. Clint Hurdle also proved that he is the right manager for this team at this time…although I will continue to say that he is a terrible in-game manager.

The negatives included Huntington’s terrible offseason acquisitions of Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay (the first I liked and the second I didn’t before the season); the injury and poor performance of Ross Ohlendorf; the continued lack of a true big-league shortstop or first baseman; the catchers’ many injuries and of course the big disappointment that was Pedro Alvarez’ second season in the big leagues. Alvarez’ disappointing season, and disappointing is a major understatement, is obviously the biggest concern as Pedro’s development is probably the most important factor into the possibility of this team contending over the next several years. Alvarez is the team’s lone power bat, and pretty much the only power source in the entire organization. If Alvarez doesn’t bounce back and become the middle-of-the-order bat that the team so desperately needs I simply cannot see this team contending for at least another few years until the young power arms in the low minors might come along.

So that leaves the question, where does this team go heading into next season?

Well let’s start with the obvious. McCutchen will be in center and Walker will be at 2B. From there we have some moving parts but the Pirates absolutely have to give the 3B job to Pedro, give him 500 at-bats and see what he becomes. I would also implore the Pirates to embrace the speed that they have and start the season with Presley and Tabata at the corner outfield spots. That would also mean starting the season with Garrett Jones at 1B, but just as they tried to do this year with Matt Diaz, it would be wise to bring in a right-handed platoon bat at first base to share time with Jones. I also expect the Pirates to exercise the option on Ronny Cedeno at SS and let him and Chase D’Arnaud compete for the job. Really, the Pirates have no choice but to exercise Cedeno’s $3 million option after how poorly D’Arnaud played this year in his first stop in the big leagues and the lack of shortstops on the market (really, a case could be made that D’Arnaud was the worst player in the major leagues this past season).

That leaves catcher as the only unfilled position and I would hope that the Pirates plan to exercise the option on either Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit, with Snyder’s one-year option the more likely choice. I’d love to see Doumit stay, he seems like a good guy who desperately wants to win here, but his injury history and lack of defensive skills make him a liability at $15.5 million over 2 years. Assuming Snyder is retained, or if he isn’t I guess the job will be McHenry’s to lose, that leaves the Pirates with essentially the same line-up as this year. If there is going to be improvement, it is going to have to come from the players themselves. Given their age and some of their histories and pedigrees, that is a reasonable hope. Really, though, it all comes down to Alvarez. As he goes, my guess is so does the Pirates’ offense.

I don’t expect much help from the outside in terms of pitching either and you are probably thinking, “why wouldn’t they go out and spend money to improve the ballclub?” And while that claim is legitimate, the Pirates are still trying to find out what they have internally and are still a couple of years away from truly competing. Spending big money now would be foolish and a waste. I expect the Pirates to allow Paul Maholm and his $9.75 million option to hit the free agent market and to start the season with a rotation of Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, James McDonald and either Brad Lincoln or Ross Ohlendorf with the loser of that battle serving in the long relief and next in-line starter role. Joel Hanrahan will once again anchor the bullpen and I am sure Neal Huntington will assemble a number of power arms in front of him, including the possible retention of Jose Veras and Daniel McCutchen and hopefully highlighted by the return of Evan Meek to his 2010 form. The Pirates are hoping that the left-handed relief role can be filled by Daniel Moskos but if not, that is one area they may have to go out and find a player.

All in all, I don’t expect much player-movement come the offseason for the Buccos. I would think a right-handed bat could be brought in to platoon with Garrett Jones at first, another reliever or two could be brought in and I am sure the club will bring in a few starting pitchers on minor league contracts to compete for starting roles but with not much chance to win. That doesn’t mean improvement is not possible, quite the opposite in fact. If this team was going to break the consecutive losing seasons streak and actually contend anytime soon, the improvement was going to have to come from within. That means the pressure is on Andrew McCutchen to become a superstar, Neil Walker to become more consistent and a major improvement from the likes of Jose Tabata, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Brad Lincoln and Ross Ohlendorf. But nowhere is the spotlight shown brighter than on Pedro Alvarez and his bat. If the Pirates are going to continue moving forward as they did this year, it is squarely on the shoulders of Alvarez to become the hitter the Pirates organization thought he would be.

Reality Has Set In But Pirates Have Plenty to Play For

The Pirates are now floundering in a seven game losing streak and have lost 9 of 10 overall. It is funny how playing above expectations can simultaneously lead to creating unattainable expectations. The Pirates, who not too long ago held first place in their division, were projected by even the most optimistic fans to win only 70-75 games this season. Through 110 games, the Pirate sit a mediocre 54-56, a record that puts them on pace to win roughly 80 games this year! If you could have said that at the beginning of the season, every Pirates enthusiast would have signed up for that in a heartbeat.

The Pirates ability to play above their heads for 100 games, however, put unreasonable expectations on a team that simply is not all that talented. That 53-47 record through 100 games had Pirates fans dreaming of a division title and actual playoff games at PNC Park. Unfortunately, there was no way the Pirates were going to continue playing that well without some sort of miracle. The Pirates had the run differential of a .500 team and only had that because their starting pitching staff was performing way over their heads. It was only a matter of time before the team came crashing back to earth and we all should have recognized that at the time.

Instead, we decided to suspend reality and believe that these Buccos could continue winning one-run games, that Kevin Correia and the rest of the Pirates starters would continue pitching at a level they never have before, that the returns of Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, and Jose Tabata would boost the line-up and that trading for Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick would improve upon their zero production predecessors. Well, I guess the last two statements are true but when your line-up was as dreadful as this team’s was marginal improvements simply aren’t enough.

I have held from the beginning that even if the mini-miracle continued that the Pirates were still not good enough to win the division without major help from their competitors. Even with everything breaking right, this team was not going to win more than 83 or 84 games. For that to win the division, the Pirates would need major help. Who knows, the Pirates may get out of this funk and go on to win that many games but the Brewers have now made it look impossible that merely 83 or 84 wins would take the division. That’s the point I want to make today.

It is not time to get down on these Pirates, who have already accomplished more this year than anyone could have imagined. Instead, it is time to set more realistic goals for this team, most notably breaking the 18 season losing streak the team has endured. Let’s root for Neal Huntington and his staff to continue building toward real contender status over the next couple of years. Reality has set in, but that does not mean the season needs to be a waste. The Pirates have plenty to play for and a future that looks a whole lot better than before this season started.

Trading Season Has Begun; Good Day for Buccos Despite Inactivity

The baseball trading has begun and if you are a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, today was a good day. Carlos Beltran was traded to the San Francisco Giants despite being linked with the Milwaukee Brewers, among other teams, and the Cardinals made the first ever “go for it” trade that made their team worse now, and in the future.

The first trade of the day was a three-teamer between the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. Let’s just say the American League teams did fine in this one. Toronto received Colby Rasmus, the 24-year-old outfielder that is easily the best asset in the deal, from the Cards and utility man Mark Teahen from the White Sox as well as three no-name pitchers. For Rasmus, the Cardinals received right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and outfielder Corey Patterson as well as two relievers and some other considerations such as cash and three players to be named later. The White Sox ended up with reliever Jason Frasor and pitching prospect Zach Stewart.

Rasmus was clearly the best player in this trade but for whatever reason was unable to get along with Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa and his coaching staff and they felt the need to move him. Not only is Rasmus a pretty decent player already, his skills and young age have had scouts and baseball insiders drooling over him for years. Fans of other National League Central teams have to be extremely happy about his departure, and the fact that he could be replaced with Corey Patterson! Edwin Jackson is a hard-throwing righty with a no-hitter during his time with the Diamondbacks but his career ERA of 4.53 and extremely high walk rate aren’t sending fear through the NL Central.

Toronto’s incentive in the trade was clearly acquiring the young Rasmus and the potential he possesses. The Blue Jays have done a tremendous job acquiring assets in recent years - it’s just a shame they have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox, meanwhile, pick up a good bullpen arm and a pretty good pitching prospect in Stewart while saving some money in the meantime.

The other trade that has either gone down or soon will go down is Carlos Beltran heading west to the San Francisco Giants for some kind of package that includes pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. As part of the trade the Mets are reported to be picking up $4 million of the remaining $6.5 million owed to Beltran, with this being the final year of his contract. Beltran is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Giants who have been desperate for a middle of the order bat since Buster Posey’s injury. The Giants have plenty of pitching and giving up a prospect, grant it a darn-good one, is well worth the gamble for a team trying to win back-to-back World Series titles. The Mets were willing to eat much of the money owed to Beltran in order to pick up a premium prospect in a trade and they couldn’t have done much better than Wheeler who is ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball according to Keith Law’s latest rankings. The trade is a win for both teams as the Giants add a big piece to their title defense while the Mets pick up a legitimate starting pitching prospect for the future for a player they were likely to lose at the end of the season.

Excitement Real but Pirates Need Alvarez

I was on vacation last week in Myrtle Beach, SC, a popular relaxation destination for many Pittsburghers, where the excitement over the Buccos was everywhere. There are many years when my family takes the voyage down to Myrtle Beach only it usually falls in early June where by then the Pirates have normally been eliminated from contention already. Being there in July, with the Pirates claiming a share of first place, only made it sweeter to see the excitement and hope for Pittsburgh Pirates fans for the first time in what seems like eternity.

With this excitement both in Pittsburgh and from Pirates fans around the country in mind, I decided to take an extended lunch yesterday to check out your first place Buccos in action against the Cincinnati Reds. Besides the general importance of the game and the Pirates looking to complete a sweep, it was an opportunity to see a great pitching match-up in Jeff Karstens, with his 2nd best NL ERA, going up against Johnny Cueto and his would be NL best ERA had he pitched enough innings.

I came away from the game with two thoughts, both already somewhat swirling around in my head but only confirmed further by being in attendance. First, the excitement and enthusiasm for these Buccos is real and hardcore. You got the sense of this from watching on TV during the Boston and Philadelphia series, and even the Cubs and Astros series before the break, but to see a crowd of 25,000+ on a weekday afternoon in full support of these Buccos was fantastic. I have been to many of these early afternoon games in the past when you could count the number of fans in the lower levels of the stadium.

Secondly, the Pirates desperately need Pedro Alvarez back in the line-up. I have no idea why he is still in AAA, we know that the guy can hit minor league pitching, it’s time to bring him back up to the majors, plug him in at third base and in the clean-up spot and see what he can do. No offense to Chase D’Arnaud, he’s young and needs more time to develop, but he has been awful during his time in Pittsburgh. I cannot even fathom why Clint Hurdle continues to bat him in the #2 spot in the order. Hurdle is giving away valuable and critical at-bats in the middle of a pennant race. D’Arnaud single-handedly cost the Buccos the game yesterday with two atrocious errors. He also came to bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and hit a weak fly ball to right on the first pitch in the third and then later flew out to left with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in the seventh inning (this after a failed bunt attempt by Alex Presley, a horrible bunt but an even worse decision to have him bunting there). One game is one game, but D’Arnaud has been terrible his entire time in the big leagues with the exception of a fine defensive play here or there. The 24-year-old shortstop prospect is batting .225 with an OPS of .542. He has 5 extra base hits in 89 at-bats and zero home runs. He also has 7 errors in 21 games played. For the love of Pirates fans, please send this kid back to AAA.

Meanwhile, despite the terrible start Pedro Alvarez got off to this season, he still seems like Babe Ruth compared to the punch and judy hitters the Pirates have been running out there at third base in his absence. Between D’Arnaud mentioned above, Josh Harrison (.576 OPS) and Brandon Wood (.642 OPS) the Pirates third basemen have been another empty spot in a line-up that already has too many deficiencies. Alvarez hit 16 HRs last year in 347 Abs, a pace that would put him in line to be a 30 HR guy despite a tough transition period to the Major Leagues. It is time the Pirates put their faith back in the top prospect they have had since Chad Hermansen and see what the kid can do. We know he can hit AAA pitching where he is hitting .340 with an OPS over .900 in 14 games during his rehab assignment. It is time the Pirates plug him into the #4 spot in a line-up that is dying for an influx of power. Putting Pedro #4 would allow Walker and McCutchen to move up a spot in the order, where they should be anyhow, and give the Pirates a line-up that at least resembles what a Major League line-up should look like.

I am not sure how Alvarez will respond to a recall to the Pirates. His track record tells us that he is a slow-starter which gives me great reason for optimism and I saw enough of the young third-baseman last year to know that at a minimum he is going to hit some home-runs. Whether he develops into a great player will probably depend on his ability to put the ball in play but again, I think we are talking about a guy who is going to hit 30 home runs per season and possibly more. Whether that comes with a .230 batting average or a .270 average will ultimately determine how good of a player he is, but even the poor end of Alvarez’ projected production would be a major upgrade to this Pittsburgh Pirates line-up. It is time the Pirates recall Alvarez and plug him into his normal spot at third. Any hope at a continued run at the division is dependent on it.

Andrew McCutchen, the All-Star

Andrew McCutchen, much like many of the Pirates’ opponents who have hit one in the gap this year, was robbed of his first All-Star appearance. I am not the first to write this and I won’t be the last but I had to comment on the fact that I find it absolutely ridiculous that “Cutch” is not on the NL All-Star roster.

Personally, I think the Pirates center fielder should be starting the game but I was OK with the fact that Matt Kemp, Lance Berkman and Ryan Braun were voted starters. All are having fantastic years and much of the fan voting was done before McCutchen’s recent tear. That being said, McCutchen has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement player) in the National League, trailing only Kemp in that metric. Braun is third, Berkman is tenth…again I think McCutchen should be starting, but the fact that he is not even on the team is beyond comprehension. As Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle said, and I am paraphrasing, “the players screwed up, NL Manager Bruce Bochy screwed up and MLB screwed up”.

The fact that McCutchen is not even on the “final five” list to be voted into the game by the fans is enough to justify firing whoever puts that list together. How is the second best player in the National League not even included on a list of players that includes Ian Kennedy and Michael Morse? Most casual fans don’t even know who those guys play for. (Kennedy is a pitcher for the Diamondbacks and Morse is an outfielder for the Nationals for those that didn’t know.) McCutchen is being talked about nationally as a young, exciting and fantastic player that will soon be mentioned among the top players in baseball for years to come. For MLB to leave him out of this year’s contest does a disservice for baseball fans around the country.

McCutchen’s absence once again merits a closer look at how these teams are constructed. To be honest, the fans actually do the best job. Sure, too many Yankees and Red Sox dominate the voting but for the most part those guys deserve it and the fans get it right. With the exception of Derek Jeter, who is in for the lifetime achievement award, it is hard to find fault with any of the starters for this year’s contest. The players and the respective teams’ managers choose the rest of the rosters and once again there is plenty of room for disagreement. The players have loyalties and frankly don’t care all that much about how other players are performing. Managers have loyalties to their own players, former players and other managers around the league and are often partial to those loyalties. In the end, it is the fans who get cheated by not getting the opportunity to see the best players in the game on the field.

The good news is that ultimately All-Star games and All-Star appearances don’t really matter. Andrew McCutchen is going to make plenty of All-Star appearances in his career beginning next season in all likelihood. If anything, McCutchen’s snub this year may have garnered him more attention nationally than if he were to be on the team, especially if he had been the Pirates’ lone participant. (This is no slight at Joel Hanrahan who absolutely should be on the team as well.) McCutchen is quickly becoming one of the league’s best players and will soon be recognized for it. Who knows, if the Pirates keep playing this well McCutchen could end up on the short list of MVP candidates by season’s end. That would sure make the All-Star game voters feel stupid because Andrew McCutchen is obviously an All-Star.

Huntington Faces Tough Decisions

As we approach the midpoint of the baseball season and with the trade deadline less than a month away, Pirates management and General Manager Neal Huntington have a very interesting decision on their hands. The Pirates sit at 41-39, only 2 games out of first place in the NL Central and only one game back in the loss column. This is the Pirates best record through 80 games since the 18 year losing streak began and fans are excited. No doubt that the temptation is there for Huntington to make a trade to improve this ballclub and make a run at their first winning season and maybe even an outside shot at contention in nearly two decades.

Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.

It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.

While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.

At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.

As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.

I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.

Welcome Back Smorgasbord - King James, Terrelle Pryor and More!

The blog, much like LeBron James during the fourth quarters of the NBA Finals, has been on hiatus for a few weeks but we are back now to our regularly scheduled program. I will be back with columns every Wednesday and Friday with shorter posts sprinkled in here and there when thoughts and/or events come up. Since I have not commented on anything in a couple weeks here, what better way to jump back in than with an extended smorgasbord! Here we go…

- Where else can we start other than King James? Just when we thought he had fully arrived after the Boston and Chicago series he follows it up with a complete mental breakdown on the biggest stage of his career. (I must say that I had originally planned to do a column after the Chicago series saying how LeBron had finally arrived and was playing the way we all had envisioned him playing for so long…I’m glad that I didn’t have the time to write that post with how silly it would look just two weeks later!) Make no mistake - that was no choke job by LeBron. He wasn’t bricking foul shots or missing layups. He wasn’t throwing terrible passes or missing rebounds. He simply did not show up mentally following the game two loss for reasons that none of us can understand. Why did he stop attacking the basket? Why did his suffocating defense disappear? What in the world was going through his mind? Whatever it was, it was probably the same “thing” that pushed James into teaming up with Dwayne Wade in Miami in the first place. Whether it is a lack of a killer instinct, an unusual level of self-doubt that we typically do not see with players of his magnitude, or something else that none of us can put our fingers on, it is obvious that eight years into the NBA LeBron still does not have that “it” factor. Will he get there? I don’t know. My guess is that his talent alone will lead him to at least 2 or 3 championships and we will forget about many of these indiscretions. (It will be much the same way that we forget how badly Michael Jordan was criticized, called a gunner and how he couldn’t win the big one before he won his first title. That just sounds silly knowing what we know now.) At this point, however, I think we are close to realizing that he will never reach the absolute peak that his physical abilities call for because of something missing inside.

- Can somebody please explain to me what Cam Newton has that Terrelle Pryor doesn’t? Even if you consider Newton the better prospect, it cannot be the difference between the 1st overall pick in the draft and a 4th or 5th rounder as the reports are saying Pryor will go in the supplemental draft. Personally, I think both have a long way to go to be even a reasonably decent starting quarterback in the NFL and there is a good chance that neither amounts to much at that position. Both, however, have the same incredible upside with their tremendous physical abilities. Heck, I would even guess that as an athlete Pryor will grade out better than Newton. Just weird to me that some teams would value Newton’s upside to be that much more than Pryor’s despite the fact that it was Pryor who was a 3-year starter playing in a pro-style offense and not Newton. I will have much more on Pryor in Friday’s post.

- Game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight and what a crazy series it has been. Vancouver has squeaked out three 1-goal wins at home while losing the three games in Boston by a combined score of 17-3. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s goalie, has looked like two different players at home and on the road while Boston has reached this point on the back of its own net minder, Tim Thomas. I like the Canucks to win a close one tonight. You win games like these on the backs of your superstars (hey Penguins fans, Max Talbot is THE SUPERSTAR right?) and the Canucks have more of those players than the Bruins. Either way, I am sure looking forward to the game tonight. Nothing in sports is better than a game seven, and maybe no game sevens match the intensity and excitement of those in hockey.

- Major League baseball is over 40% of the way through its season and the lack of storylines continues to be a trend. Derek Jeter is now on the DL postponing his 3,000 hits bid, which was inevitable anyways. Almost every team in baseball is still alive for the postseason. There are a few players, Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson come to mind, having fantastic seasons but nobody who is doing something that approaches historical. Scoring continues to be down and there are more pitchers having good years but again, none are doing anything historic. The teams we thought would be good, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, etc. are good and outside of the Twins and Indians, the season has gone pretty much as expected. Really, the biggest story in baseball is the hometown Buccos and their quest to end the streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons. As we sit today, the Pirates are 33-33 and only 4 games out of the division lead. If the Pirates can continue to play at or around .500 I suspect the story will continue to pick up steam nationally.

- Speaking of the Pirates, it will be interesting to see what management does as the trade deadline approaches if they continue to hover around .500 and stay somewhat in contention. From a team building prospective, they should still be in “sell” mode but a run at .500 in August and September, especially if there is no football going on, would be a tremendous financial opportunity for the club and that is part of management’s job as well. I will have a lot more on this next week and my thoughts on what I think the Pirates should do if they continue to play good baseball into mid July.

- Pitt and Penn State have agreed to renew their rivalry on the football field starting in 2016. I know this is a big deal for the alumni bases but sorry, I can’t get excited over a football game five years from now. It is ridiculous that this game has not been played in over ten years and even when it resumes, it will lack the tradition and history the rivalry should have.

- College football is covered in scandal. The NFL is in danger of missing a portion or all of its upcoming season due to labor negotiations. The NBA and NHL have never been more popular. Is this the beginning of the end for football as America’s favorite sport? Probably not, and I suspect that the NFL and the Player’s Association will work something out in time because there is too much money to be lost but with a game that violent and that popular I think it is only a matter of time before the popularity decline begins.

- From my standpoint, the labor negotiations have been this year’s version of the Brett Favre comeback story as the most heavily covered story by the media that the general population doesn’t really care about. Most people could care less about how the two sides split up the $10 billion pie (despite the posturing by the player’s association and the owners blaming the other one) and really only care about whether there will be a season or not. I have kept an eye on the negotiations and court rulings from a general business interest but boy do I get annoyed when I have to listen to the daily updates on Sportscenter or on Mike and Mike when they are talking labor negotiations in mid-May. Despite being force-fed coverage of the lockout for the past four months, it will only be in the next couple of months when the pressure to get a deal done really picks up as fans start to become worried about a season actually being missed and players and owners alike realize that there may not be checks coming in the very near future.

Pirates Showing Improvement

Those that stayed up late last night saw the Pirates commit a series of miscues and poor decisions that led to blowing a late lead and a shot at .500. The loss had the feel of one of those “same old Buccos” losses that we have become accustomed to over the past 18 years. Those losses, however, have been few and far between so far this year. At the 30-game mark, the Pirates sit a respectable 14-16 and only three games out of first place in the NL Central. While the Pirates have gotten off to some decent starts during their current consecutive losing seasons streak, there is some legitimate cause for hope stemming from this relative batch of competent play.

First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.

Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.

With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.

While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.

The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.

Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.

Friday Smorgasbord!

No need for a preamble, let’s dive right in!

• The Penguins played what quite possibly was their best game of the season since Crosby’s injury in game one. It was hard to tell if the Penguins were able to raise their level of play that much or if the Lighting were a little shell-shocked by the intensity of the playoffs. Either way, if the Penguins continue to get that kind of play from Marc-Andre Fleury in net and the power play continues to show some life, the Pens are going to be a tough out for anyone even without Sid. With him, I think they just might become the favorite once again.

• Six of the eight teams I predicted to move on in round one won their opening game. I am not sure if that is good or if missing the two upsets everyone was calling for is bad. It is still early, however, and winning game one doesn’t mean a whole lot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hopefully the Penguins remember that.

• So much for that great Pirates’ start. After losing five of their last six, the Buccos are now 5-7 and trail four other teams in the NL Central. Sure the standings, and even the records, are not very important this time of the year but it would have been nice if this team could have sustained some momentum from the strong early start.

• The good news is that the Pirates starting rotation has continued to perform pretty well. Outside of the opening day defeat the Pirates have been in every game thanks to their starting pitching. Hopefully the pitching doesn’t deteriorate when the bats decide to wake up.

• Fresh off seeing him in person here in Pittsburgh last week is it time to start calling Troy Tulowitzki the best player in baseball? Well let me be the first! You remember when the national outlets start talking about this guy as the best player in the game that you heard it here first. Going back to last September, “Tulo” has hit 22 home runs in his last 42 games while playing the best shortstop in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy so we can all enjoy a full season’s worth.

• The guy Tulowitzki reminds me of is a young Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez, by the way, is far from done himself. About the only player in baseball matching what the Rockies shortstop is doing is the former best player in the game. Tulowitzki is first and Rodriguez is second in the majors in OPS and nobody else is close through the early part of the season.

• How about that Masters finish on Sunday? That was quite possibly the best golf on television I have seen with so many guys hitting important shot after important shot. It very well might have been the return of Tiger Woods as well. For more on that, I know I can’t say it any better than the Sports Guy did, so I will just link to his column: Bill Simmons

• I was going to post my NBA playoff predictions as part of the Smorgasbord but I will hold off and have a separate post going up Saturday morning. Check back then to see who I like in the opening round and a little commentary on the foregone conclusion that Derrick Rose is the NBA MVP this year…

Pirates Should Improve, But How Much

Your 2011 Pittsburgh Baseball Club got off to a nice start, winning two out of three games in Chicago over the weekend. Of course, winning two of your first three is nothing to write home about but for a team that won a total of 17 games on the road last year, winning two out of your first three away from PNC Park can be taken as a positive sign.

We all know about the young power pitchers down on the farm, the fantastic draft the Pirates had last year, the Pirates’ future catcher in Tony Sanchez and all of the positive steps towards the future that the organization peppers us with about building a winner long term, but let’s forget about that for today and focus on this year’s team. How do we expect this year’s team to do and should we expect any improvement on the dreadful season the Pirates put together last year?

Thursday on the blog you probably noticed that I picked the Buccos to win 70 games this year. That is probably a little optimistic, but with the Vegas line being at 67 wins I do not think 70 wins is overly optimistic or out of the realm of possibility. Sure, improving 13 games over the previous season is no easy task but improvement from last year is almost inevitable. It is very hard for a professional baseball team to lose 100 games in a season; to lose 105 is downright embarrassing. Even if the Pirates had not improved their talent level at all, I would have still expected a 5-7 game improvement by pure statistical reasoning. The Pirates did, however, make some meaningful improvements to the line-up and their pitching can’t possibly be any worse than it was a year ago. Let’s take a little closer look at the ballclub now and why I think 70 wins is a real possibility.

The Pirates opening day line-up looked like this:

LF Jose Tabata
2B Neil Walker
CF Andrew McCutchen
1B Lyle Overbay
3B Pedro Alvarez
C Ryan Doumit
RF Garrett Jones
SS Ronny Cedeno

I am not going to dive into the advanced metrics of this line-up (email me if you would like to see some of the numbers), but believe me when I tell you that this line-up has the potential to be a middle of the pack run producer in the National League, especially against right-handed pitching. Against left-handers, the Pirates will sub Matt Diaz in right field for the lefty Jones and will play catcher Chris Snyder over Doumit when he gets healthy. That line-up is not as good as the one running out there against righties but it is still strong enough for the Pirates to have a league average offense. That is a far cry from last year when the team was stuck with Aki Iwamura, Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge taking meaningful at-bats for half the season.

One key for this Pirates line-up is for Manager Clint Hurdle to stick to the platoon system. It gives the Pirates the strongest possibility to out-produce the individual parts they have. Too often managers stray from their original platoon systems because one guy gets hot, one guy gets cold, etc. but for the Pirates to maximize their players’ abilities, it is on Hurdle to put them in the right positions to succeed and that means sticking to the platoons.

Defensively, the Pirates were the worst team in the majors last year. The bad news is that the Pirates will have much of the same team in the field this year that it finished last year with. The good news is that most of the Pirates are young and defense has shown to dramatically improve with experience. McCutchen should be much improved in center with another year of experience, ditto for Tabata. Neil Walker can only get better and being that last year was his first season playing second base and he is a great athlete, I think a big improvement is in store. Lyle Overbay is a marked improvement over the myriad of guys the Pirates ran out there last year at first and Ronny Cedeno should improve with another year under his belt as well. At catcher, Doumit is still a liability but Snyder is known for his defensive ability and should bring a little stability when he’s behind the plate. Nobody will mistake Pedro for Brooks Robinson or the right-field platoon situation of Jones/Diaz for Roberto Clemente, but if the Pirates can be solid at the other positions there should at least be a noticeable improvement in the defense.

That was most of the good news surrounding the 2011 Pirates but now we get to the pitching. I guess the silver lining with the Buccos’ pitching is that it cannot possibly be any worse than it was last year when the staff allowed the most runs in the major leagues. The other good news, I guess, is that Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald and Charlie Morton appear to at least have the raw stuff to become legitimate major league starters and Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm would make most teams’ staffs as 4th or 5th starters. The problem for the Pirates pitching staff is that they have no legitimate ace, or really even a #2 or #3 starter for that matter. All five starters look like they could be legitimate major league starters but no more than a 4th or 5th starter on a good team. I do see improvement coming from Ohlendorf and McDonald and the diehard fans are sure to hold on to hope that Charlie Morton and his “electric stuff” develop, so the possibility of at least an OK starting rotation is possible. If the Pirates can get pitching on par with at least the bottom half of the league and not have clearly the worst staff in baseball, they can win their share of games with an improved line-up.

All together I see a year of improvement for the Pirates and at least the beginning of a basis to compete a few years down the line. If nothing else, this year provides an opportunity to see how Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and the young starters continue to develop. If the proper steps are really being taken by Pirates management to build a contender in a few years, the biggest key will be the development of the players currently on the roster. I expect improvement, but how much is the question.

All Things Pittsburgh

In case you haven’t noticed there has been a ton happening around the Pittsburgh sports scene the past couple of weeks that does not involve the Steelers. I have touched on a few of these things here and there but let’s take an all-inclusive look at everything going on in and around the ‘Burgh.

· Just the mere mention of the Penguins (without even writing their actual name) in the blog was enough to end their twelve game winning streak on Tuesday night in Philadelphia. The Pens followed that loss up with an awful 3rd period performance last night and are now on a two game losing streak. Skipping past the long winning streak, despite its impressiveness, and looking at the season as a whole shows that there is a ton to like about this particular Penguins team. The Pens are tied for fifth in the NHL in both goals for and goals against per game. They are second in the NHL behind the Flyers in goal differential. They are second in the league in penalty killing and have the second most short-handed goals. They rank a pedestrian 16th in power play percentage but that unit has look much improved lately and the goaltending of Marc Andre-Fleury has been superb over the past month, month and a half. The Penguins have done all of this without their best penalty-killer and third best offensive forward in Jordan Staal. Getting Staal back at some point will be like making a major trade acquisition without giving anything up. This Penguins team is well positioned to make another run at the cup and at this point I would make them the co-favorites along with Philadelphia and Detroit.

· One streak that has not ended yet is Sidney Crosby’s 20 game scoring streak. Crosby has 39 points in those 20 games and now leads the league in goals, points, and points per game. He is second in assists, ranks in the top 10 of forwards for +/- and is arguably the best face-off man in the NHL. There really are no superlatives to explain his greatness right now. Any argument over who the best player in the world is completely over, not that there ever was an argument in my mind.

· One positive from the past two losses has been the play of Evgeni Malkin. You may remember him being called out right here in the blog just a few weeks ago and the fact that the Pens had no problem winning without him in his four-game absence. Malkin still ranks well below his standards at 40th in the NHL in points per game and the Pens are going to need a lot more out of their other superstar if they are going to make a run at the Cup like they intend to do, but it was nice to see Geno score three goals in these past two games and more importantly, skate and look like the Malkin we remember from two years ago.

· If you did not watch the premier of HBO’s 24/7 Penguins-Capitals last night, make sure you catch one of the encore shows before next week’s second program and follow from there. HBO does a fantastic job with these behind the scenes documentaries and if last night’s premier was a preview of what’s to come, it will be another fantastic series. My only quibble with the show, and there really is nothing HBO can do about it, is the wide array of story lines that are not covered. We are used to seeing these 24/7s focus on two boxers, or in the Nascar case - of one driver, so with so many different and integral people involved with two hockey teams it is impossible to cover every story.

· Pitt has hired former Miami of Ohio coach Mike Haywood as its new football coach. What I do know about Haywood is that he is an excellent Xs and Os coach. He is a former Charlie Weis pupil at Notre Dame and took a talent depleted Miami team from a 1-11 record to a 9-4 season and a MAC championship. I watched probably too many MAC games for my own good this year but I can tell you that Haywood flat-out outcoached many of his colleagues in leading his team to the MAC championship. What I do not know, however, and what nobody can judge unless they know the person, is how Haywood will do with everything else that a head coaching position at a major college entails. That includes recruiting, public relations, schmoozing with boosters, working with administration and many other things that the public does not see. We know that Dave Wannstedt was fantastic in all of these areas, thus my reluctance in firing him. I do not know Mike Haywood and I do not think his time at Miami was enough to judge him on those things so I will withhold any judgment on him until he is given the proper amount of time in the position. The one thing I do know is that AD Steve Pederson does not have a great track record with hiring football coaches that are good at these things. His last two hires, Bill Callahan and Walt Harris, were excellent football Xs and Os guys but both proved to be terrible at the rest of the job requirements. That does not particularly instill confidence in me with Pederson’s choice, given Haywood’s resume and background.

· If Haywood is the excellent game coach that I believe he is, expect Pitt to have a good season next year with a good bit of talent coming back and a very manageable schedule. That could propel Haywood and his staff to continuing on Pitt’s strong recruiting efforts and get the Pitt administration and boosters on his side. This could significantly aid Haywood as he does his on-the-job training toward long term success. If he does not succeed immediately on the field, however, I will not be too confident in his chances going forward. In either case, we will not be able to properly evaluate this hire for at least three, but more likely four or five years down the line.

· The Pirates signed Lyle Overbay earlier this week to be their first baseman next year. I thought Bob Smizik on his Post Gazette blog summed it up best, “Since Overbay is a left-handed hitter and will start at first base, the team is basically replacing Garrett Jones with, uh, Garrett Jones.” Smizik went on to say that the Pirates are not exactly signing the “weapons” that Frank Coonelly talked about in one of his chats on the Pirates website. In reality the four players that the Pirates have acquired are not all that much different from their predecessors. Overbay for Jones/Ryan Doumit, Mat Diaz for Lastings Milledge, Scott Olsen for Zach Duke and Kevin Correia will be added as the 4th or 5th starter to a team that already has plenty of those.

· The Pirates have also made no secret of their desire to trade Ryan Doumit and his salary. Personally, I hope Doumit sticks around. For the Pirates’ signings to make any sense it is imperative that they use platoon rotations at first base and in right field. A platoon at catcher with Doumit facing right-handed pitchers and Chris Snyder facing lefties would also be ideal. I have a tough time believing that the Pirates will stick to these platoon roles, as it seems managers never do, but if the Pirates hang on to Doumit and strictly use the platoon match-ups they could run a halfway decent line-up out there against both lefties and righties. Here they are, with 2010 OPS averages in parenthesis, against those type pitchers:

Vs. Righties: Vs. Lefties:
McCutchen (.784) Tabata (.682)
Tabata (.767) Walker (.809)
Walker (.818) McCutchen (.903)
Alvarez (.858) Alvarez (.644)
Jones (.775) Diaz (.830)
Doumit (.832) Pearce (.964)
Overbay (.779) Snyder (.750)
Cedeno (.647) Cedeno (.767)

· As for all of those number four and five type starters, I have no answer for that. Pirates’ fans can hope that Ross Ohlendorf and James McDonald continue to develop and that Brad Lincoln develops into what management hopes he can become. Even at their peaks, however, those three are no better than good number three starters on a playoff team. No, the Pirates best pitching hope lies in their lower minor league ranks and is still a couple of years away. There is always Charlie Morton with that “electric stuff”.

· With the Cardinals and Reds looking as good if not better for next year, it could be another long season for the Buccos. The positive is that we get to watch the continued development of the young players and actually have some hope for the future.

· Lastly, and we will get into a lot more college hoops after the Bowl Season ends, but this Pitt basketball team has the makings of being the best team in the Ben Howland/Jamie Dixon era. There is no question that this is the deepest and most talented team from one through ten that Dixon has coached, but I am not sure if there is a player the caliber of a Sam Young or DeJuan Blair on the team. The more important question however, as has been with many of the past teams, is will there be a player that can put this team on his back when things are not going right. Pitt has lacked this superstar for much, if not all, of this modern era and it has often been its achilles heel. The closest thing Pitt had to this player was Sam Young from the Elite Eight team two years ago. If this Pitt team is going to match and hopefully surpass that team Brad Wannamaker, Ashton Gibbs or the darkhorse candidate Dante Taylor is going to need to take his game to the next level. We did not see this happen in the Tennessee loss, but the season is still quite young.

Thursday Night Pick

SAN DIEGO (-10) over San Francisco

Pirates Hire Right Man

I wrote about a week or so ago that it looks like the Pirates were set to hire Jeff Banister as their new Manager. It was nothing against Banister, who I have no idea how good of a Manager he would have been, but it looked like the Pirates were going the way of hiring a low-cost “yes” man. Stop me if that doesn’t sound familiar, especially the low-cost part of the equation. There is no doubt that if Banister were hired his job would have been to keep his mouth shut and run the team the way Neal Huntington wanted-- after all it is his job that is next on the line. Much to the surprise of many, including myself, the Pirates went in a different direction and hired Clint Hurdle, a guy they seem to have been targeting from the beginning. Hurdle comes from the World Series runner-up Texas Rangers as their former batting coach and previously from Colorado where he led the Rockies to a National League pennant.

I am not familiar enough with how Hurdle ran the Rockies or how he manages in-game strategy to make an educated opinion on how good of a Manager he will be. What I do know is that Hurdle was a coveted commodity this off-season, at the very least he looked like the leading candidate for the New York Mets vacant position. That meant that the Pirates had to spend a significant salary for Hurdle to come here. It also meant that the Pirates had to convince Hurdle, using his words, that they were “all in” in terms of putting the people and money in place to turn this thing around.

As a manager, I also know that Hurdle is well-liked by his players, demands respect in the clubhouse and brings an enthusiasm and passion for the game that we have not seen from the Pirates over the past few years. That is not a knock on John Russell, no manager on the planet would have won with the assembled talent in Pittsburgh, but it will be a welcome change from his even temperament. The Pirates are beginning to put together some pieces to assemble a winning baseball team. It is now Hurdle’s job to continue the development of his young players such as Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker. It was also nice to hear Hurdle recognize that the Pirates biggest need in the short term was pitching. I am not sure where the Pirates are going to find this pitching, but at least the new man in charge recognizes an upgrade is needed.

I am not a believer that Managers make a huge difference, especially over the course of a long season. What they can do is instill a little something extra in a clubhouse, whether that is confidence, attitude, strategy, etc. That little something extra is especially needed in a clubhouse that needed a change. Hurdle will not be the answer to ending this dreadful consecutive season losing streak, improved talent will be that answer, but he was the right man for the Pirates Manager position at this time.

Friday Smorgasbord (Plus Week 9 Picks)

It has been a long week in The People’s Quarterback home as we get used to a crying baby and almost no sleep. With that, I have done very little writing this week so I have a ton of thoughts stored in the old memory bank. Let’s get some of those out in a Friday smorgasbord. Week nine NFL picks can be found at the end and let me tell you it was nice to get back on the winning side of things last week.

· Auburn and Oregon control their own destiny for a BCS title game appearance with Boise State and the TCU/Utah winner nipping on their heels. But for my money Alabama is still the best team in the country. Here’s hoping that Alabama wins out and meets Oregon for the National Championship in what would be one of the most anticipated championships in some time.

· Those that are against a NCAA football playoff system often site the importance of the regular season as one of the major reasons. That argument never made sense to me. Wouldn’t the Ohio State, Stanford, Wisconsin, Arizona and a bunch more regular seasons be that much more important if they were trying to battle their way into an eight or twelve team playoff. Sure we may lose the drama of one game here or there like the undefeated Michigan-Ohio St. clash a few years back but we would pick up about two dozen more do-or-die type games on the back end of the schedule. How much more exciting would the rest of Pitt’s season be if they had the inside track in the Big East to the playoffs and not just some trip to the Fiesta Bowl for an example?

· For the record, I am in favor of a playoff system AND bowl games. There is no reason that an eight or twelve (my particular favorites) team playoff cannot exist with the other bowl games played around them. Some argue that a playoff would take away from the importance of the other bowl games but that is bunk. The same people (fans, alumni, students, hard-core college football fans and gamblers) would be interested in the Gator or Pinstripe Bowl with or without a playoff. The real problem is deciding how to run the playoff system, which includes creating as much revenue as the current BCS bowls and how to divide it amongst the teams and conferences. I think these are problems that could easily be solved with time and effort and eventually more money could be made for the universities, but Presidents and Athletic Directors are afraid to turn away from a sure thing.

· With all do apologies to Kellen Moore, who is having a fantastic season for Boise State, the Heisman race at this point looks like a two man race between Cam Newton and LaMichael James. Unless one or both suffer an injury or their production severely drops off over the final few games, I’m guessing you will be seeing of these two young men holding the trophy in New York. I would vote for Newton right now.

· The Pirates are set to hire their new manager any day now and unless Clint Hurdle, currently the Texas Rangers hitting coach and former Colorado Rockies manager, knocks the Pirates’ management team’s socks off, it looks like former minor league coordinator Jeff Banister is going to get the job. Talk about hiring a “yes” man. General Manager Neil Huntington knows that it is his job that is next on the line and that his ability to keep it ties directly to the improvement of the big league club. I guess he wants to leave no chances with a manager who will do exactly as he says. I am sure Bob Nutting will not mind this hire either as Banister is sure to be the lowest paid manager in baseball.

· Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants for winning the World Series. The Giants won on great pitching, timely hitting, and a good amount of luck. People hate to hear the word luck involved with sports, especially when it is their favorite team, but the role it plays cannot be overstated enough. This is doubly true in playoff baseball where short series and small sample sizes are all that matters. Maybe if we begin using the word randomness, as I have heard some people refer to it by, it would become more accepted.

· One guy on the Giants that has nothing to do with luck is rookie catcher Buster Posey. The Pirates passed on Posey to select Pedro Alvarez, a move that now looks foolish in hindsight despite the promising rookie season Alvarez put in. Posey is very possibly the game’s second best catcher already at the young age of 23 behind only Joe Mauer.

· Randy Moss is slowly but surely forcing his way out of the NFL. I own Moss on two fantasy teams so I am hoping his move to Tennessee works out but if the reports of Moss’ behavior in Minnesota are true how many more teams are going to take a chance on a guy whose talents are already beginning to wane.

· That being said, Moss is still a game changer. If Randy’s head is on straight and he can stretch defenses and draw coverage away opening holes for Chris Johnson and throwing lanes for Vince Young, the Titans just got a whole lot more dangerous in the crowded AFC picture.

· Troy Polamalu spoke out this week about Commissioner Roger Goodell and his office having too much power. I say amen to that. Goodell’s ability to suspend, fine and basically do whatever he wants to players for both their on-field and off-field behavior should be a major sticking point for the Player’s Association in the upcoming labor negotiations.

· I am all for protecting player’s safety and while I thought the fine for James Harrison’s hit on the Browns receiver was excessive and borderline, I could at least understand it. Fining Harrison for his late hit on Drew Brees this past week simply does not make sense to me. How can you fine a guy for what I consider a normal football play? Sure, Harrison was a split second late, I agree, and the flag was thrown. Why is this action finable? Are guys going to get fined for holding? How about chop blocks, those are pretty dangerous? Harrison’s hit was not blatantly late or with harmful intentions, it was an illegal football play that deserved a flag and that’s it.

· On to this week’s NFL picks…Last week I went 7-6 (51-61-5 overall), finally getting on the winning side after three consecutive losing weeks. Hopefully I can carry that momentum over for this week and the rest of the season.

(Home Team in Caps)

ATLANTA (-8.5) over Tampa Bay – Because the Falcons are off of a bye week, at home where they’ve won 12 straight with Matt Ryan at QB, and the Falcons could be the class of the NFC.

Miami (+5) over BALTIMORE – Because the Dolphins have yet to lose a road game and can exploit the Ravens’ suspect secondary.

Chicago (-3) over BUFFALO – Because everyone thinks this is the game the Bills are finally going to win and because it is being played in Canada, not Buffalo.

CAROLINA (+6.5) over New Orleans – Because a home win on Halloween night is not going to rope me back in to believing the Saints are back.

New England (-4.5) over CLEVELAND – Because Bill Belichick loves taking out revenge on former employees like Eric Mangini.

New York Jets (-4) over DETROIT – Because the Jets are too good and too well coached not to bounce back in a big way.

HOUSTON (+3) over San Diego – Because San Diego should not be giving anyone points on the road especially with Tweedledee and Tweedledum catching the football.

MINNESOTA (-8) over Arizona – Because I am not sure if Arizona will complete more passes to Cardinals or Vikings.

New York Giants (-7) over SEATTLE – Because Charlie Whitehurst is starting at quarterback for the Seahawks and there is a good chance he does not finish it against this Giants pass rush.

Kansas City (+2.5) over OAKLAND – Because the Chiefs have won seven straight in Oakland and are a little further along in their rebuilding effort.

Indianapolis (+3) over PHILADELPHIA – Because Jim Caldwell has never lost to an NFC team since taking over the Colts and because the AFC is that much better than the NFC.

GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Dallas – Because the Cowboys have quit.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CINCINNATI – Because Carson Palmer stinks.

Pirates Manager Search Least of Their Worries

I received an email from the Pirates the day after the season ended with the subject “Pirates relieve Russell of managerial duties”. This may bring a couple a couple of thoughts to your mind like “Why do I receive emails from the Pirates marketing department?” or “Why are the Pirates trying to sugarcoat firing a guy that lost 299 games in three years?” or finally, “Is John Russell the most relieved man in baseball?”

To answer that first question, I used to be a Pirates partial season ticket holder buying one of their ten game packages. A buddy and I decided after we graduated college that it would be fun to do this and we had a few bucks after getting our first real jobs. Well my buddy moved away and I couldn’t GIVE away my tickets when I couldn’t go so that was that. It’s not like the Pirates tickets are the hardest seat in or town or anything. I am still on their email list, however, and get their homemade puff pieces sent to me.

This brings me to the second question you might have, or at least the very first question that I had. Why were the Pirates trying to make this sound like anything but a firing? The Pirates lost nearly 300 games in three years under Russell, including seasons of 67-95, 62-99 and this year’s topper 57-105. The Pirates, who have been stressing “accountability” since Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly took over as the management team, should have released a headline that looked something more like this “Pirates Could Not Fire Russell Fast Enough!” Instead, we email subscribers got a boring piece on how the Pirates thought they needed a change in direction, and that they value Russell’s contributions to the organization, blah, blah, blah.

Frankly, I have no idea if John Russell was a good manager or not. Sure, I didn’t agree with some of his in-game tactics but you can say that about some of the greatest managers of all time. I did like that Russell was willing to think outside of the box. I applauded his attempt to bat the pitcher eighth and his attempt at different defensive positioning. Those ideas may not have worked for this team, but at least Russell was trying something to give his team an edge. For an organization that is inferior in almost every way to its counterparts, a bit of unconventional thinking is needed. The reality though, is that players and talent win games. Russell had neither to work with. That is why the third question popped into my mind. Is anyone more relieved not to be managing then John Russell, especially in light of Coonelly and Huntington’s decision to extend him another year, thus paying Russell approximately a half million dollars not to coach the Pirates? Sign me up!

The truth of the matter is that it doesn’t matter one iota who the next manager of the Pirates is going to be. As to my knowledge, the Pirates have interviewed at least six managerial candidates for their vacant position with the apparent frontrunner being former Cleveland skipper Eric Wedge. Do these guys know what they are getting into? Here are the list of Pirates’ managers since Jim Leyland left in 1996; Gene Lamont, Lloyd McClendon, Pete Mackanin (on an interim 25 games basis), Jim Tracy and John Russell. Their combined record with the Pirates was 964-1300, a whopping .426 winning percentage. The only one of these men to get a managerial job after he left was Jim Tracy, and he was very fortunate to get his when serving as bench coach for the Colorado Rockies they fired their manager and he took over, luckily falling into one of the more talented rosters in the National League.

The future looks no brighter for the next Pirates’ manager either. The immediate future of the Pirates is built around Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. McCutchen is the only sure thing of the group but I think I saw enough of Alvarez to give him the benefit of the doubt as well. Walker was a career .273 hitters in the minors, does anyone think he can really be a .296 hitter in the majors? I think his .340 BABIP may have played a part in Walker’s luck. Jose Tabata has shown no inclination of hitting with power despite being the Pirates everyday left fielder of the future. The four of them were also major contributors to the Pirates’ league worst defense. Even allowing that Walker and Tabata can become solid regulars, McCutchen and Alvarez reach their potential, and the Pirates have a decent catching platoon between Snyder and Doumit, the Pirates are still three (or 2.5 if they decide Garrett Jones can be a decent platoon at 1B or RF) players away from having a good major league line-up. And that is the good news for the next Pirates’ manager!

The bad news is that if the Pirates fail to sign any prominent free agent starters, and that’s a pretty good bet, your 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation to begin the season will most likely consist of Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald, Paul Maholm, Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton. Their respective career ERAs are 4.40, 3.84, 4.48, 6.66 and 5.98. Not exactly the Phillies current H2O staff. The only near-term help on the farm are prospects Bryan Morris and Rudy Owens, both far from a sure thing. It’s true that the Pirates have stockpiled some great arms in the lower minors, but by the time they reach the big leagues the new manager very well could be looking for his next job.

That, people, is the state of your Pittsburgh Pirates. A once proud organization has fallen to the point where it really doesn’t matter who they hire to manage their ballclub. I do hope for the next manager’s sake that he is given at least a four or five year contract so that he can grow with the Pirates’ young talent on his terms. I also hope that he gets a guarantee from the Pirates’ management team that they will significantly increase payroll in the next few years. Lastly, I hope that the Pirates do the right thing and hire a guy proven to be a great developer of young talent. But who am I kidding, does it really matter who the Pirates hire for their next manager? I have a sad feeling that I will be receiving another email in two or three years headlined, “Pirates relieve general manager and coach of duties.”

Evaluating the Buccos' Trades

Major League Baseball’s trade deadline came and went on Saturday and there were a number of deals made as the contenders tried to beef up their rosters for the stretch run. In Pittsburgh, the end of July usually marks the purge of the Pirates’ roster, as the team is usually out of contention and looks to move its veteran assets for younger talent. This year was no different, though not to the extreme it has been the past couple of years, but the Pirates made three deadline deals all with the future in mind.

Neal Huntington and his staff, all-in-all, did a pretty nice job this deadline, moving veteran relief pitchers for some pieces that could potentially help the Pirates down the line. The one deadline deal, however, that is quite possibly the biggest black mark on Huntington’s resume to date did not involve the Pirates at all. We will get to that in a second, but first, let’s take a look at the three trades the Pirates were involved with.

· The Pirates traded veteran reliever D.J. Carrasco and veterans Bobby Crosby and Ryan Church to Arizona for catcher Chris Snyder and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco, as well as $3 million in cash to help offset Snyder’s total of $8.2 million due through the end of 2011. In short, I love this move by the Pirates. Between the $1.2 million remaining in cost on the three players moved, the Pirates essentially picked up a solid major league catcher for the 2011 season for approximately $4 million and received a throw-in shortstop prospect to boot.

There is really nothing to be said of the three departed players. Church and Crosby were busts as free agent acquisitions and offered no value to the Pirates this year or in the future and Carrasco, while being quite effective this year out of the bullpen, is easily replaceable. In return, the Pirates picked up a potential starting catcher in Chris Snyder who is much better than his .231 average would indicate. For proof, Snyder’s three year average .OPS of .770 would rank 6th among National League catchers this year and he is known as a solid defensive catcher, something Pirates’ fans have not seen in some time. Snyder will also give the Pirates some flexibility in moving Ryan Doumit to either right field or first base, or even the option of moving him in another trade this offseason.

Ciriaco is known as a good defensive shortstop prospect with not much of a stick, as his career .659 OPS in the minors would indicate. Even still, with the Pirates glaring hole at the shortstop position throughout the organization, taking flyers on guys like this is a smart approach.

· The Pirates then sent closer Octavio Dotel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher James McDonald and minor league outfielder Andrew Lambo. Those around Pittsburgh were calling this a salary dump, while those nationally were calling this a nice trade by the Pirates. I fall in the second camp on this one, as a veteran closer makes no sense on a young team that is going to be lucky to win 60 games. McDonald is a 25-year-old pitcher with nice raw stuff and the ability to start while Lambo was once thought of as a high-end prospect until a drug suspension earlier this season derailed his progress some. Both are great examples of buy-low candidates who could become a significant part of the Pirates future. For more, check out Keith Law’s take on this trade here: Dodgers give up too much for Dotel.

· The third and final trade made by the Pirates was giving up another veteran reliever in Javier Lopez to the San Francisco Giants for a pair of 27-year-olds, pitcher Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker. Lopez, while very effective as a left-handed arm out of the bullpen, is once again an unneeded commodity on a young, losing team. I like that the Pirates sold him at peak value for a couple of players, while not being top prospects, could potentially help them somewhere in the future. Martinez and Bowker have both shown some success in the minors and, who knows, maybe one or even both could become late bloomers in the big leagues.

As I said before, all-in-all, I like the three moves that the Pirates made at the deadline. I was not the only one who approved either, as Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory, gave the Pirates an A minus on all three of their deals. You can read more of Szymborski’s thoughts here: Grading the deadline deals.

There was one trade, however, that may have been off the radar of Pirates’ fans that certainly got my attention. The Washington Nationals traded closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos and left-hander Joe Testa. Despite having a bit of a down year, Ramos is still one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. Prior to this season, Ramos was a consensus top 100 prospect throughout baseball. Capps, as everyone will recall, was not tendered by the Pirates for arbitration, and indications were that the sides were only roughly $500 thousand apart. Huntington’s hard-line stance has now cost the Pirates a chance to acquire a top prospect such as Ramos.

This criticism should not come as a surprise to any of my readers as I went on numerous times in the preseason on why this was a terrible move on Huntington’s part. For all of the criticism Huntington has received, most of it undeserving at this point, this line of events should be getting more attention. There was no excuse at the time to let Capps walk, and the Nationals ability to spin Capps into such a valuable commodity only heightens the poor decision. So while I believe the actual moves made by the Pirates were a positive, I cannot help but think of the Capps’ events as the defining moment of this trade deadline.

Just like the past 17, soon to be 18 seasons, the Pirates have come out a loser.

Who Are These Guys?

Have the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates become the 1927 New York Yankees? Who are these guys swinging the bats the past five days or so? The dog days of summer are here, the World Cup is over, training camp is still a week or so away and the Pirates are out of the playoff race. In Pittsburgh, this is usually the worst sports time of the year by far. The Pirates, however, may just give us something to watch until the Steelers and Pitt begin their regular season, other than non-contact practices and meaningless pre-season games of course.

The reason the Buccos just might give us something to watch is the youngsters look like they are starting to figure out this Major League hitting thing. Over the past five games, during which they have four wins, the Pirates have scored a combined 48 runs. That is nearly 10 runs per game, and the most encouraging part is that the guys doing the damage are the guys who are in Pittsburgh’s long term plans.

Pedro Alvarez, the guy probably most important to the Pirates near and long-term future, has gone 9-20 over these five games, with 4 HRs, 9 RBIs, 7 runs and maybe more importantly, four walks against five strikeouts. Alvarez has shown his world-class power, absolutely clubbing the four home runs he has hit (two each in the past two games) but has also shown the ability to stay patient at the plate and hit his pitch. Alvarez’ development alone could be reason enough to watch these Pirates down the stretch.

Four other important members of the Pirates near-term future; Garrett Jones, Jose Tabata, Lastings Milledge and Neil Walker; have more than chipped in their own fair share. Walker has gone a red-hot 14-24 over the five games, Jones has gone 6-20 with a home run and 6 RBIs, Tabata has been the table-setter with 8 hits and 8 runs scored and Milledge has continued his steady play over the past month or so with a 6-16 mark during the five game Pirates’ run fest. The Pirates have done all of this with Andrew McCutchen out of the line-up the last three games, and we all know what McCutchen is capable of. The Pirates are also getting solid contributions from a red-hot Ronny Cedeno and Delwyn Young, two more guys that could be contributors to the team over the next couple of seasons.

I should be quick to point out that five games is a tiny sample size. Every team, no matter how bad, goes through a few hot stretches over the course of a 162 game season. But these are the new Pirates, the guys we have been hoping and waiting for since Neal Huntington took the general manager job and began trumpeting these young guys. They look to have their feet properly wet and the evaluations can begin. At the very least, these past five games can give us hope for the future…or at least a reason to watch over the final 68 games.

Pirates Dreadful Season Continues

The Pirates head into the All-Star break on yet another six game losing streak, all six on the road once again. I have actually written this opening three times in the last two weeks, each time this post getting bumped by other news. The common link each time I have written this piece has been how dreadful the Pirates have been.

The first edition came immediately following the Pirates first win after 17 consecutive road losses. The second time the Buccos had actually managed to win two of three from the Cubbies, giving them a whopping four wins in a 23 game stretch at that point. This time, the Pirates are fresh off another miserable road trip where they were swept in Houston and in Milwaukee, two teams that had been playing nearly as bad as the Pirates had been.

The Pirates play for most of the first half of the season has been quite simply horrible, almost downright embarrassing. The current six game losing streak has pushed their road record on the season to 11-38, which for perspective’s sake would equate to a 126 loss season. These Pirates are playing some historically bad baseball on the road. Worse yet, the Bucs play at home has not been much better recently. Overall, the Pirates have nine wins in 36 games in June and July. NINE FREAKIN’ WINS…

Not only are the Pirates losing, they are playing terrible baseball. Horrible fielding, bad baserunning, poor at-bats and a general lack of fundamentals have exemplified this current stretch of embarrassing baseball. As we begin the All-Star festivities tonight, the Pirates are a National League worst 30-58, a record that puts them on pace for 107 losses this season. That number of losses would be more than even the worst pessimist would have guessed to start the year. With the halfway point behind us and no end in sight to the losing, it is time to take a quick look at what has gone right (very little) and what has gone wrong (way too much) so far this season:

The Good

Andrew McCutchen – McCutchen has picked up right where he left off last year and that has the young phenom well on his way to stardom. After batting .286/.365/.471 with 12 HRs and 22 SBs in only 433 at-bats as a rookie, “Cutch” has followed it up with a .287/.363/.435, 8 HRs and 20 SBs as a sophomore and that despite a recent slump. Yes, a few more timely hits would be nice, but those hits will come as McCutchen matures. Despite getting ripped off from an All-Star appearance this year, you can be sure that McCutchen is well on his way to multiple All-Star classics.

Evan Meek – Meek has been dominant out of the bullpen. The former Rule-5 pick, maybe Neal Huntington’s best move as a GM to date, has held opponents to a .184 batting average, sports a 1.11 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and has struck out 45 batters in 48 innings against only 14 walks. He probably did not deserve his All-Star bid, but Meek definitely looks as though he will be the Buccos closer in the not so distant future.

Arrivals of Walker, Tabata, Lincoln and Alvarez – Only Neil Walker has performed reasonably well since his call-up to the big leagues but all four of these Pirates’ prospects earned their trip to the show and none have looked totally outclassed. The Pirates’ future is very dependent on these four guys, along with the two guys above, so to see them in their big league uniforms is a positive in itself.

And that’s about it on the list of the positives. Paul Maholm and Garrett Jones have performed well, and that is more than most of this organization can attest to, but neither has exceeded expectations. On the contrary, there have been too many negatives to list in this space. As the halfway point nears we will try to limit our list to the most glaring deficiencies at the halfway mark.

The Bad

Ryan Doumit – I have to vent for a quick second: Has any catcher in the history of baseball missed more foul tips than this guy?! Little league catchers don’t get hit from foul tips and pitches in the dirt as much as this guy. Throw in his total inability to throw a runner out, the pitchers’ slow delivery be damned, and Doumit has to be the worst defensive catcher in baseball. He is not a very good hitter either, and any hope that he was going to be a cornerstone for this franchise is out the door. Sure, he can still be a productive Major League catcher. Most teams would take a .260-.280 hitting, 15-20 home run guy as their backstop. But Doumit is 29-years-old now, there is no more potential with him. He is what he is, and that is an average catcher at best.

Lastings Milledge – I am not going to crush Milledge in this space. He has played hard, competed and seems to have matured a great deal since his arrival. His talent simply did not match the hype, however, and I think we are getting the definitive answer on his role going forward. He is a good fourth outfielder. The simple fact is that you cannot have a corner outfielder, especially one that is not even a superior fielder, hitting only 5-10 home runs over the course of a season and be in your everyday line-up. Milledge does enough to be a productive player off the bench and start a couple of times per week, but I think any hope that he could be the starting right fielder long-term has left.

Neal Huntington – I could have put Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby, Aki Iwamura, or Jeff Clement here but those guys all have one thing in common; they were brought here by general manager Neal Huntington. I will not bore you with stats, you can look them up for yourself, but these four Huntington acquisitions have been just terrible. Poor talent evaluation has done this franchise in for 15 plus years now, and the only hope for any small revenue team is the ability to recognize cheap and available talent. It is still way too early to judge the Huntington drafts, but his signings and trades on the Major League level are not giving much hope, or optimism, to the franchise right now.

Walker, Tabata, Lincoln and Alvarez – It is entirely too early to judge the performance of any these guys to this point. Like I said earlier, just seeing them in the big leagues is a step in the right direction. Each of them has shown glimmers of their potential, but the overall performance has not been there yet. It would be nice to see a string of hits and stolen bases from Tabata, a few big home runs and less strike outs from Alvarez, and a few gems in a row from Lincoln. They could be coming, but to this point we have not seen enough of it. At the very least, they do give us something to watch as the season progresses. Their development, along with that of McCutchen, are going to be vital to the near future of this team.

Alvarez Debut Afterthoughts

A night that began with so much promise ended with another dreadful display from the hometown Pittsburgh Pirates. What we hoped would be the beginning of a new era in Pittsburgh baseball ended with fans mumbling “the same old Buccos”. Yes, it was the debut of the Pirates best hitting prospect since Barry Bonds and best overall prospect since Kris Benson (we will leave Chad Hermansen walking on water out of this) but Alvarez’ debut became a mere afterthought with the Pirates losing their 10th straight game.

The ineptitude of the Buccos over the past few weeks even channeled down the excitement for the Alvarez arrival. The crowd, though obviously larger than a normal Wednesday night, was still quite meager for the moment. The crowd also lacked the energy and buzz that was present when Andrew McCutchen arrived on a mid-summer day last year. Still, most of the crowd on hand was there to see the arrival of the next savior in Pirates history.

For his part, Pedro did ok. Alvarez got his first ovation when he began a 5-4-3 double play in the top of the second. He got another loud ovation when he came to bat for the first time in the bottom of the second inning. He promptly struck out, something that Pirates fans should get used to. Even if Alvarez turns out to be everything he is expected to be, he is going to strike out his fair share. By the end of the night, Alvarez finished 0-2 with a walk and a run scored. He also committed an error by failing to field a relatively routine throw to third in the top of the ninth. As far as debuts go, it was fairly ordinary.

We did see flashes, however, of the enormous potential Alvarez possesses. He worked a good at-bat in his first plate appearance before striking out. He worked another good at-bat in the fifth, drawing a walk and eventually scoring the Pirates’ first run of the game. Alvarez then hit a sharp line-drive the opposite way to left in his final at-bat in the ninth. The White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen, and pitcher, John Danks, were both quick to praise the kid mentioning the obvious talent he possesses.

In the end, however, the so-so performance by Alvarez was overshadowed by the pathetic baseball that the Pirates are playing right now. I am embarrassed that I wrote just a few short weeks ago that this team was playing hard and fundamentally sound baseball for the most part. Over the past few weeks, they are doing anything but. The Pirates incompetence was punctuated by a Bad News Bears like 9th inning in which they committed four errors and threw the ball around like a bunch of ten-year-olds. It prompted a buddy of mine to text me, “Is this the Mount Washington little league team” in reference to my little league days. I had to quickly respond that we were much better than that. Pedro Alvarez may one day be the guy who leads this baseball club back to respectability, but what was obvious last night is that day is still very far away.

Alvarez Debut

Pedro Alvarez makes his much anticipated Major League debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. I am heading over to the ballpark now for what could be the beginning of a new era in Pirates baseball. I was at the opening game for Andrew McCutchen as well and the stadium had a certain buzz about it on a beautiful afternoon day last year. It will be interesting to see what kind of crowd and what kind of buzz the game tonight holds during a terrible stretch of baseball being played by the Pirates.

I will report back after the game with my first impressions of Alvarez and his debut.

Despite Record, Pirates Season Encouraging to Date

Before the season began I predicted a Pirates’ record of 74-88. Through 45 games, the Buccos sit at 19-26, a 68 win pace. I said that I thought 74 wins was an optimistic prediction as this team has a major void in talent, and that has shown true through the first 45 games. However, even the most pessimistic of fans has to believe the beginning of this baseball season has been an encouraging one for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

For starters, this is not the same team that limped down the stretch the previous two years, finishing with 95 and 99 losses, respectively. These Pirates are competing night in and night out. Yes they have a major lack of power. Yes they do not have a bona fide number one starter (probably not even a number two for that matter). And yes the series against the Brewers was historically bad. But the Pirates are playing fundamentally sound baseball (for the most part, Andy LaRoche base-running blunders not included), hustling at all times, and competing to the best of their ability. That is a credit to John Russell and his staff. You can question some of Russell’s managerial tactics, such as the non-traditional positioning of fielders, but you cannot question the fact that these guys are playing hard for him right now.

That is not the reason for optimism, however. That is what should be expected of professionals, but is not always what you get as evidenced by the August and Septembers put together by the previous two editions of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The reason for optimism is the play of the guys who might actually be in a Pirates uniform the next time the club is in contention. Aki Iwamura has been atrocious in the leadoff spot and almost as bad in the field. He has probably led to 3 or 4 of the Pirates losses single-handily, but that does not matter because the guy will not be here in 2-3 years when this team might have a chance to compete.

Instead, Pirate fans can take solace in the fact that Andrew McCutchen looks like he could become a super-duper star. Garrett Jones is not going to be the masher he was last year, but looks more than capable of being a solid contributor and power bat. Ryan Doumit has looked like Ryan Doumit. Andy LaRoche has played a solid third base and shows some skills that will hopefully allow him to make the transition to second base where his bat would play much better. Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf have all pitched well enough to form a solid middle of the rotation. The key will be to put one or two studs at the top of that rotation. Neal Huntington has proven that his strategy of putting a bullpen together year-by-year is the way to go and has shown the ability to identify the right guys for this role.

The only negatives toward the future is the total absence of power from Lastings Milledge (0 HRs in 144 ABs) and the complete ineptitude of Charlie Morton (1-8, 8.71 ERA). Each of these guys was acquired in a low-risk, high-reward trade, however, and their developments are not essential to the future of this club. Yes, if one or both could figure things out it would be nice and potentially speed up the rebuilding project, but neither needs to be counted on for the turn-around to be successful.

No, that success is being built where the most reason for optimism has transpired, in the Pirates’ minor league system. Jose Tabata and Neil Walker are tearing the cover off the ball in AAA. Pedro Alvarez is showing good patience and a great power stroke. Brad Lincoln looks like he could claim one of those spots at the top of the rotation. Even Bryan Morris, the much maligned pitching prospect acquired in the Jason Bay trade, pitched brilliantly in high-A ball and was recently promoted to Double-A where he again looked strong in his first start for Altoona. There is reason for hope up and down the minor league affiliates and that is a credit to Neal Huntington and the rest of the Pirates scouting staff.

The baseball season is still young and much is yet to be ultimately decided. But as the Pirates inevitably fall further and further from contention, Bucco fans may finally have some hope for the future as all signs point to encouraging for this young crop of Pirates and future Pirates.