Pirates Showed Improvement - Look to Next Year

The Pirates wrap up a season that was once filled with promise tonight in Milwaukee looking to avoid 90 losses for the seventh straight season. One thing they will not avoid is their 19th consecutive losing season, a record for all of the major sports leagues. Despite the disappointing end to the season, currently going 19-42 after they were in first place in the division after 100 games with a 53-47 record, a win tonight would still have the Pirates improving by 16 games over last season. (Note: Before the season I optimistically predicted the Pirates to finish 70-92 so they have even exceeded my expectations.) Even with a loss, and I do expect the Pirates to lose as the Brewers need a win to lock in the #2 seed in the NL playoffs, they would have improved over last season’s league worst record by 15 games. (Editor’s note: Article was completed before the Pirates loss in the season finale.) Only Arizona and Milwaukee have improved more than the Pirates did from last season and both of those teams will be playing in October. That just goes to show how bad the Pirates truly were a year ago and how much work is left to be done.

The team’s improvement is seemingly forgotten by many Pirates fans because of how truly badly the team has played over the final two plus months of the season. There were, however, many positives to take from this season, not the least of which was a general interest and passion returning to the team’s fanbase after a tremendous first half of the season. More positives included Andrew McCutchen solidifying himself as an emerging star despite his drop off in the second half; the establishment of Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Charlie Morton as legitimate big league starters and some, albeit small, amount of hope from Brad Lincoln; Joel Hanrahan’s maturation into one of the league’s best closers; Neil Walker proving that last year was no fluke; Neal Huntington’s ability to assemble a bullpen on the cheap; Jose Tabata’s no-lose contract extension and limited, though continued improvement; and a strong start to the career of Alex Presley in a limited sample size. Clint Hurdle also proved that he is the right manager for this team at this time…although I will continue to say that he is a terrible in-game manager.

The negatives included Huntington’s terrible offseason acquisitions of Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay (the first I liked and the second I didn’t before the season); the injury and poor performance of Ross Ohlendorf; the continued lack of a true big-league shortstop or first baseman; the catchers’ many injuries and of course the big disappointment that was Pedro Alvarez’ second season in the big leagues. Alvarez’ disappointing season, and disappointing is a major understatement, is obviously the biggest concern as Pedro’s development is probably the most important factor into the possibility of this team contending over the next several years. Alvarez is the team’s lone power bat, and pretty much the only power source in the entire organization. If Alvarez doesn’t bounce back and become the middle-of-the-order bat that the team so desperately needs I simply cannot see this team contending for at least another few years until the young power arms in the low minors might come along.

So that leaves the question, where does this team go heading into next season?

Well let’s start with the obvious. McCutchen will be in center and Walker will be at 2B. From there we have some moving parts but the Pirates absolutely have to give the 3B job to Pedro, give him 500 at-bats and see what he becomes. I would also implore the Pirates to embrace the speed that they have and start the season with Presley and Tabata at the corner outfield spots. That would also mean starting the season with Garrett Jones at 1B, but just as they tried to do this year with Matt Diaz, it would be wise to bring in a right-handed platoon bat at first base to share time with Jones. I also expect the Pirates to exercise the option on Ronny Cedeno at SS and let him and Chase D’Arnaud compete for the job. Really, the Pirates have no choice but to exercise Cedeno’s $3 million option after how poorly D’Arnaud played this year in his first stop in the big leagues and the lack of shortstops on the market (really, a case could be made that D’Arnaud was the worst player in the major leagues this past season).

That leaves catcher as the only unfilled position and I would hope that the Pirates plan to exercise the option on either Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit, with Snyder’s one-year option the more likely choice. I’d love to see Doumit stay, he seems like a good guy who desperately wants to win here, but his injury history and lack of defensive skills make him a liability at $15.5 million over 2 years. Assuming Snyder is retained, or if he isn’t I guess the job will be McHenry’s to lose, that leaves the Pirates with essentially the same line-up as this year. If there is going to be improvement, it is going to have to come from the players themselves. Given their age and some of their histories and pedigrees, that is a reasonable hope. Really, though, it all comes down to Alvarez. As he goes, my guess is so does the Pirates’ offense.

I don’t expect much help from the outside in terms of pitching either and you are probably thinking, “why wouldn’t they go out and spend money to improve the ballclub?” And while that claim is legitimate, the Pirates are still trying to find out what they have internally and are still a couple of years away from truly competing. Spending big money now would be foolish and a waste. I expect the Pirates to allow Paul Maholm and his $9.75 million option to hit the free agent market and to start the season with a rotation of Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, James McDonald and either Brad Lincoln or Ross Ohlendorf with the loser of that battle serving in the long relief and next in-line starter role. Joel Hanrahan will once again anchor the bullpen and I am sure Neal Huntington will assemble a number of power arms in front of him, including the possible retention of Jose Veras and Daniel McCutchen and hopefully highlighted by the return of Evan Meek to his 2010 form. The Pirates are hoping that the left-handed relief role can be filled by Daniel Moskos but if not, that is one area they may have to go out and find a player.

All in all, I don’t expect much player-movement come the offseason for the Buccos. I would think a right-handed bat could be brought in to platoon with Garrett Jones at first, another reliever or two could be brought in and I am sure the club will bring in a few starting pitchers on minor league contracts to compete for starting roles but with not much chance to win. That doesn’t mean improvement is not possible, quite the opposite in fact. If this team was going to break the consecutive losing seasons streak and actually contend anytime soon, the improvement was going to have to come from within. That means the pressure is on Andrew McCutchen to become a superstar, Neil Walker to become more consistent and a major improvement from the likes of Jose Tabata, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Brad Lincoln and Ross Ohlendorf. But nowhere is the spotlight shown brighter than on Pedro Alvarez and his bat. If the Pirates are going to continue moving forward as they did this year, it is squarely on the shoulders of Alvarez to become the hitter the Pirates organization thought he would be.