Thursday, September 15, 2011

My First Look at College Football's Top 25

College football begins week three tonight so I am a bit behind in releasing my initial thoughts on the season. The good thing is that outside of Oregon and Notre Dame, not much has changed since opening kick-off a couple of weeks ago. Here is my first look at the top teams in the country:

1. Alabama – That’s right, Alabama was my preseason #1 team last year and they are #1 on my first (meaningless) ballot this year. Trent Richardson is back and the defense features at least 8, and probably more, future NFL players. Sure, they had to replace the QB, but they are one of the few teams that rely on the quarterback so little. Their dominant performance in Happy Valley last week solidified by belief that this is once again the team to beat.

By the way, despite finishing the 2010 season with three losses, I still believe that ‘Bama was the best team in the land last year and would have been my pick had an extended playoff been played. That being said…Auburn absolutely deserved the National Title and it was a year in which the BCS system worked out ok (unless you are a fan of TCU, of course).

2. LSU – Did anyone see how fast the Tigers’ defense was against Oregon? Who cares that QB Jordan Jefferson may not suit up the entire year and WR Russell Shepard was suspended for the first three games of the year…plenty of athletes to go around in Baton Rouge. LSU goes to Alabama on November 5th in a game that could decide which team plays for the BCS National Championship in New Orleans come January 9th.

3. Wisconsin – I absolutely love this Wisconsin team who returns size, speed and experience and filled their one glaring hole, quarterback, with a guy who has over 8,500 passing yards, over 1,000 yards rushing and nearly 100 TDs in his career at NC State. I was tempted to put Wisconsin at #1 because I think they may have the clearest shot at the national title game amongst the BCS conference teams but I just couldn’t justify putting the Badgers ahead of the SEC beasts.

4. Oklahoma – The Sooners sport the nation’s best offense led by QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles but it has been a while since head coach Bob Stoops has won a big game. Oklahoma gets its first big test this week in Tallahassee.

5. Boise State – This is what I wrote last year: “Boise returns a number of starters from their BCS busting team last year including Heisman hopeful QB Kellen Moore. We will find out if they are the real deal right away as the Broncos take on Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. for their opener and have Oregon St. at home just a few weeks later.” Not much has changed except the fact that Boise has already passed its first test of the year in week one against Georgia in a convincing fashion. TCU is the only ranked team remaining on the Broncos schedule so the question becomes whether an undefeated Boise team will be worthy of a national title shot over a one-loss SEC, Big 12 or Big 10 team.

6. Stanford – Stanford has the nation’s best QB in Andrew Luck and an experienced defense to count on but has some questions up front and at wide receiver. The Pac-10 is a bit down, however, and this could be Stanford’s best chance to play for a national title for the next couple of decades as it’s not every day that the Cardinal get a talent like Luck.

7. Virginia Tech – I do not, necessarily, think that the Hokies are the seventh best team in the country but I do think they are the best team in ACC and David Wilson is a highlight waiting to happen. You can count on Frank Beamer’s teams to always have a great defense and special teams but the big question is at QB where sophomore Logan Thomas takes over for four-year starter Tyrod Taylor.

8. Florida State – Most “experts” have FSU ahead of Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order but I have seen enough of QB E.J. Manuel to have some serious questions. I also don’t trust the Seminoles’ defense nearly to the degree that I trust Virginia Tech’s. FSU does have a ton of talent returning, however, and we are going to find out just how good they are this week as they host Oklahoma.

9. Oklahoma State – Offensive guru Dana Holgorsen may have moved on to WVU but QB Brandon Weeden, WR Justin Blackmon and a whole host of offensive talent returns in Stillwater. If there’s an offense that can rival Oklahoma’s it is this one but there are tons of questions marks on a defense that wasn’t very good last year to begin with.

10. South Carolina – Steve Spurrier’s bunch is going to score lots of points this year as they proved in their first two contests and running back Marcus Lattimore is a true Heisman contender. Can the defense improve enough to make a run at the SEC championship?

11. Texas A&M – I can’t remember the last time the Big 12 has been this deep. It is saying something when Texas is probably the fourth most talented team in the conference. The Aggies, in what is most likely their final year in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC, are led by QB Ryan Tannehill and a tremendous defense despite the loss of Von Miller. The Aggies take on Oklahoma State next Saturday in a big-time early season clash.

12. Nebraska – Taylor Martinez is back and should be better with a year of experience under his belt. The defensive front should once again be tremendous with dominant defensive tackle Jared Crick leading the way. Questions at the skill positions and along the offensive line will make the Cornhuskers transition to the Big 10 interesting.

13. Oregon – This might be a little low for the Ducks but I wasn’t quite as high on Chip Kelly’s bunch to start the season either. Oregon’s offensive line was dominated in the championship game last year and had even more question marks going into this season, questions that certainly weren’t answered in their loss to LSU. I do love Darron Thomas and LaMichael James but they are going to shoulder an awful heavy load if this team is going to repeat in the Pac 10.

14. Ohio State – Despite the defections, the suspensions and the turmoil at Ohio State, let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that this team is not extremely talented. The top five recruiting classes that Jim Tressel was continuously bringing in are still there and I suspect the remaining Buckeyes might have something to prove, starting this week against Miami.

15. Arkansas – Arkansas’ bid at making it back-to-back BCS Bowl games took a major hit with the preseason injury to RB Kniles Davis. The Razorbacks have still looked tremendous on offense in their first two games, albeit against a couple of cream puffs. I would be higher on the Hogs if wasn’t for a brutal schedule that includes six teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25, four of those currently in the top 10, and trips to both Alabama and LSU.

16. West Virginia – WVU has gotten off to a slow start in each of their first two games but it is only a matter of time before QB Geno Smith and a talented group of wide receivers hit their stride in Dana Holgorsen’s new offense.

17. Florida – Much like Ohio State, the fabulous talent brought in over the past few recruiting classes is still there in Gainesville and it now falls on new coach Will Muschamp to harness that talent.

18. Arizona State – The Sun Devils brought back a ton of starters from their team a year ago and so far Brock Osweiler has played well at quarterback, the big question mark entering the season.

19. Auburn – I have no idea what to make of this Auburn team. They have looked tremendous at times in their first two games and downright awful at other times but they keep finding ways to win.

20. Michigan State – Although the Spartans return a good bit of talent from last year’s 11-2 squad, including QB Kirk Cousins and RB Edwin Baker, they lost a ton of leadership and talent on defense in LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon.

21. South Florida – It wouldn’t surprise me if West Virginia, South Florida or Pitt won the Big East. South Florida has looked the best so far with an impressive, although somewhat unusual win in South Bend in their opener.

22. Texas – No doubt that Texas has as much pure talent as anyone in the Big 12, and maybe the country, but a QB mess looms large over the program with the new plan being to rotate sophomore Case McCoy (yes that’s Colt’s brother) and freshman David Ash and putting the experienced Garrett Gilbert on the bench.

23. Baylor – No quarterback controversy here as Robert Griffin III is one of the country’s most dynamic athletes and has already led Baylor to a huge win over TCU in what could go down as the game of the year despite being played on opening weekend.

24. Penn State – I like this Penn State team despite the ugly loss to Alabama last week. I only wish that JoePa and his staff would settle on Robert Bolden at quarterback. He is obviously more talented and has a good bit of room to grow over former walk-on Matt McGloin. I expect the Lions to rebound over the next few weeks before taking on the grind of the Big Ten schedule.

I also thought about putting Notre Dame in this spot, but couldn’t pull the trigger after two very strange losses. I’d like to bet that the Fighting Irish and Coach Brian Kelly rebound from these losses and finish the season with at least 8 or 9 wins and firmly entrenched in the top 25.

25. Michigan – There are plenty of teams that could claim this spot this early in the season but after Michigan’s thrilling victory and the excitement Denard Robinson brings on every play, the Wolverines get the nod at this point. Other teams that I considered included USC, TCU, Missouri, Mississippi State and Tennessee.

Not Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh – I am certainly not sugar-coating it when I say that Pitt has looked awful in its first two games allowing a pretty bad Buffalo team to rack up 400 yards in the opener and then surviving with a 35-29 win over a I-AA team in Maine. QB Tino Sunseri has played terribly, the offensive line has looked lost, the linebackers look slow and the pass-coverage has been suspect at best. Add those up and you have what amounts to a pretty poor season on the horizon. That’s the bad news…the good news is that the Panthers are 2-0 and now begin what is the real part of their schedule. Ray Graham looks even better than advertised, the defensive line is every bit as good as it is deep and the Panthers should begin to play better as they get more comfortable in their new offensive and defensive systems.

To be honest, I really do not have a feel for where this season is headed. I think Sunseri will play better than he has. He’s not a superstar but he can be effective, especially with the threat of Graham running the ball. I also think the offensive line and secondary will play better as they become more accustomed to the new schemes. As for the linebackers, I don’t think the new systems gels with the talent on hand and they could remain a work in progress as the season progresses. With a mediocre Big East, it would not shock me one bit to see the Panthers win the conference. It also wouldn’t shock me to see the Panthers stumble to a 7-5 type season. I think we will learn a whole lot more about this team after this week when they make the trip to Iowa to play a solid, disciplined and well-coached Hawkeyes team that should be fired up after losing an overtime game to their in-state rival last week. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Panthers do so we can begin assessing Coach Graham and the new era of Pitt football.

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