2011 NFL Season Predictions

The Blog is back after an extended break, recharged and ready for the start of the NFL season, the baseball playoffs and the old college gridiron. Today, we dive into the NFL preview, Friday we will be back with the first week's picks and early next week I'll unveil my first top 25 of the college football season, plus a little bit extra on your Pitt Panthers as they head into the real part of their schedule.

If you recall my pre-preseason power rankings for the NFL, really not a lot has changed in the pecking order. Green Bay still has the most loaded roster with New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta hot on their trail in the NFC. New England and Pittsburgh continue to look like the class of the AFC with the Chargers, Jets and Ravens looming in the background. Dallas, Houston and the rest of the NFC North continue to be darkhorses as teams who could jump from last to first. The only real change, and it’s not really a change, is the continued uncertainty about Peyton Manning’s health. If Manning plays 16 games, it is as sure as the Pirates will have a losing season that the Colts will be in the playoffs. Without Manning for part or even all of the season, the AFC South just got a whole lot more interesting.

To steal last season’s opening remarks because frankly, I don’t think I can write it any better: The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with what might be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. The pre-preseason power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2011 NFL season playing out.

AFC East
New England Patriots – 12-4
New York Jets – 10-6
Miami Dolphins – 6-10
Buffalo Bills – 4-12

The Patriots added some veteran star-power to an already star-laden line-up. Tom Brady is probably entering the end of his prime and realizes that he will not have a whole lot more opportunities to win another Super Bowl. The Jets will once again have a tremendous team held back by a below-average quarterback and the Dolphins and Bills may improve some but not enough to gain ground on the Jets and Pats.

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4
Baltimore Ravens – 10-6
Cleveland Browns – 6-10
Cincinnati Bengals – 3-13

Funny how much can change in one year. Last year at this time we were discussing how the Steelers could survive the first four games without Ben Roethlisberger and a year later we are nitpicking their weaknesses after appearing in their second Super Bowl in three years. The defense should once again be the best in football and Roethlisberger looks better than ever and has a full complement of weapons to distribute the ball to. Baltimore, meanwhile, saw some turnover on its roster during the offseason. One of the moves I liked best was bringing in Lee Evans from Buffalo to stretch the field. The Week One battle should give one of these teams a big leg up in the division. I also like the direction that Cleveland is heading in and they are hopeful for another step forward from QB Colt McCoy. Cincinnati, meanwhile, begins a rebuilding job with rookies Andy Dalton as their franchise QB and AJ Green as his primary weapon.

AFC South
Houston Texans – 10-6
Indianapolis Colts – 9-7
Tennessee Titans – 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11

I am hedging my bets here as I am not sure what to make of Peyton Manning’s injury at this time. If he misses only a couple of weeks, I can still see the Colts making a run at the division or at least a wild-card spot. If Manning cannot return soon, the Colts could slip to below .500 for the first time since 2001. The Texans once again look like the team ready to make the jump into contender status but until they actually do it we have to remain skeptical. Manning’s injury could be just the opening Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson need to win their first division title in franchise history. Tennessee and Jacksonville both begin rebuilding jobs with rookie QBs waiting in the wings to take over their respective offenses. Of the two, Tennessee should be more competitive with veteran Matt Hasselbeck at the helm after the Jaguars cut their veteran starter, David Garrard, just this week.

AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs – 8-8
Oakland Raiders – 7-9
Denver Broncos – 5-11

The Chargers should return to their spot atop the AFC West and could be right back in the thick of things for the AFC crown if they can correct their special teams miscues and lethargical starts to the season, both very correctable. The Chiefs, meanwhile, could actually be better than they were last year but end up with a lesser record. With an improving, young roster, this is the year they must decide whether Matt Cassel is the right QB for the job. Oakland will likewise take a step back this season after losing a number of key contributors to their 8-8 campaign last year but I continue to like the direction they are heading. Denver could have one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league on defense, which can win some games by itself, but there isn’t a whole lot to like about that offense.

NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles – 11-5
Dallas Cowboys – 10-6
New York Giants – 9-7
Washington Redskins – 5-11

I can’t decide whether this or the NFC North is the best division in football this year. Green Bay is the best team on paper, Washington is the worst, but the top three of the East, overall, are slightly better than top three in the North. You’re probably saying “Who cares” and you’re right. It should be interesting to see how the Eagles offseason acquisitions mesh in Philadelphia, how Tony Romo returns from his injury and how the Giants adjust to a slew of injuries to their defense this preseason. One thing this division does not lack is entertainment.

NFC North
Green Bay Packers – 11-5
Minnesota Vikings – 9-7
Chicago Bears – 7-9
Detroit Lions – 7-9

Not much more needs to be said about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but boy do I want to put the Vikings in the playoffs as my sleeper team. I think they will be competitive, as will the Bears and Lions, but all three don’t quite stack up with the NFC elite.

NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 12-4
Atlanta Falcons – 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers– 7-9
Carolina Panthers – 4-12

The Saints are probably the one true contender being least talked about this offseason and I am not sure why. With Sean Payton and Drew Brees controlling the offense they are going to be a force and rookie RB Mark Ingram could have a tremendous impact. Speaking of rookie impacts, Julio Jones is expected to have one in Atlanta as a compliment to Roddy White at receiver. There are no more excuses for Matty Ice as it is time to take the next step on the quarterback latter (something that I question if he has it in him). Tampa Bay, much like the Chiefs, could actually be better than they were last year but finish with a worse record but like the Chiefs you have to like their young, improving roster. Carolina will bring up the cellar in this division as they take their lumps while Cam Newton learns on the job.

NFC West
St. Louis Rams – 9-7
Arizona Cardinals – 8-8
San Francisco 49ers – 6-10
Seattle Seahawks – 5-11

Don’t think anyone could argue with you if you picked any one of these teams to win the NFC West. On second thought, Tavaris Jackson is the starting quarterback in Seattle so that automatically relegates the Seahawks to the basement. While I think Matt Ryan has reached his potential as a starting QB, we are only beginning to see what Sam Bradford can do. I expect the Cards and Rams to battle for divisional supremacy with Bradford and the Rams ultimately getting the job done. As for the Niners, the good news is they have a real coach in Jim Harbaugh now…the bad news is that Alex Smith is still their starting QB.

Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers (Yes, I picked him last year. I meant to say Super Bowl MVP)
Offensive Player of the Year – Philip Rivers
Defensive Player of the Year – Darrelle Revis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Mark Ingram
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Von Miller
Coach of the Year – Gary Kubiak

Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore, New York over Houston
Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis

Pittsburgh over New York, New England over San Diego
New Orleans over Atlanta, Philadelphia over Green Bay

New England over Pittsburgh, New Orleans over Philadelphia

Super Bowl XLVI
New England over New Orleans