Week 1 NFL Picks

Well my 2011 NFL picks got off to an unlucky start last night by virtually nailing everything about the game but coming up one-yard short on the Saints covering the spread. What a tremendous way to open the season, however, and a great beginning to this season’s MVP race.

My only complaint about the game, and I have to preface this by saying that I think Sean Payton is the best offensive mind in the NFL right now (with apologies to Andy Reid and Peyton Manning), but on the two biggest plays of the game I thought the formations and play-calls were so predictable…especially the fourth down play-action pass when the Saints had receivers spread across the field. The Packers defenders never even hesitated on the run fake and the same thing on the final play when every Packers player sold out to stop the run and a naked bootleg would have let Drew Brees walk into the end zone. Ah well, it’s only one game, 255 more to go.

In case you were wondering, I finished last year above .500 at 127-122-7, but below the coveted 53% mark to make a profit. I promise to improve on that this year…or at least go down trying!

(home teams in caps)

Pittsburgh (+1) over BALTIMORE – Baltimore is a good, solid football team but their weaknesses lie in the secondary and on the offensive line, not a good combination against the Steelers.

Atlanta (-2.5) over CHICAGO – Tempted to pick the upset here but I think Atlanta will be ready to play after their disappointing exit from the playoffs last season.

TAMPA BAY (-1) over Detroit – The Lions should be much improved but I can’t trust them on the road until they prove something. Josh Freeman leads a fourth quarter drive for the win.

KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo – Ryan Fitzpatrick playing on the road against a fast defense, no thanks!

HOUSTON (-8.5) over Indianapolis – I don't think the Colts will be as bad without Manning as most people do, but I don't think they will be very good either.

Tennessee (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – The Jaguars cut their starting quarterback heading into the first game of the season, I don’t think that will work out too well.

Philadelphia (-4) over ST. LOUIS – If you frequent the blog, you know how highly I think of Sam Bradford but Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and that Eagles offense in a dome on that fast turf will be too much.

Cincinnati (+6.5) over CLEVELAND – The Bengals are in for a long rebuilding year but I think they keep this one close.

New York (-3) over WASHINGTON – Eli is going to bounce back in a big way this year and I love his weapons on the outside. The G-Men are going to have problems on the other side of the ball but that shouldn’t be a big problem against the Redskins offense.

Carolina (+7) over ARIZONA – Carolina is going to run, run, run some more and hope their defense can keep them in the game. I think it works enough to keep this one close but Arizona ultimately wins.

San Francisco (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Tavaris Jackson starting on the road, or anywhere for that matter, is not going to lead to many wins. Jim Harbaugh wins his debut as the 49ers coach and Pete Carroll remembers how it was much easier to beat Harbaugh at Stanford when he was at USC and could pay his players more.

Minnesota (+9) over SAN DIEGO – San Diego is a perennial slow-starter and the Vikings are going to be much improved from a year ago. I’m not calling the upset, but I think this one is closer than you would expect.

Dallas (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS – Romo is back and the Cowboys have plenty of weapons around him if Miles Austin is able to play. I was worried about the Cowboys depleted secondary but remembered it will be Mark Sanchez trying to take advantage.

New England (-7) over MIAMI – I bit on Chad Henne a bit too much last year and he has to prove to me that he can be an adequate QB in this league before I back the Dolphins this year. Besides, I’m not going against my Super Bowl pick in week one.

DENVER (-3) over Oakland – The Broncos can really get after the QB and the Raiders are a little shaky up front. Can somebody tell me why this game is on Monday night?