I have a number of thoughts that I have been working on concerning the NHL and NBA playoffs that will be up within the next 24 hours. In the meantime, let's get our conference semifinal hockey predictions on paper:
Eastern Conference
Penguins over Canadiens in five.
Flyers over Bruins in six.
Western Conference
Sharks over Red Wings in six.
Blackhawks over Canucks in five.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Overdue Draft Thoughts
The Blog has been on hiatus the past few days, much like the Pittsburgh Baseball Club until Ryan Doumit’s power stroke made a comeback during the final two days in Milwaukee. I, at least, have an excuse since I have a real job that pays my bills and have been traveling for it, unlike the Pirates whose job it is to play baseball. Anyways…over the next couple of posts we will have to catch up on all that is happening around the world of sports, starting today with some overdue draft thoughts. It might be a day late and a few over-the-top analysis words short, but here are some of my thoughts on the Steelers’ 2010 Draft:
• I was pushing for and hoping the Steelers would take a corner in the first round of the draft as I thought it would be the most impactful position for the 2010 Steelers. With Kyle Wilson and Kareem Jackson on the board, Mike Tomlin and company still selected center/guard Maurkice Pouncey from Florida. The more that I thought about the pick, the more that I really liked it. Pouncey is going to start right away and hopefully sure up the interior of a line that has struggled a bit in recent seasons. That will be just as impactful as a cornerback, and could solidify the center position for the next ten years as well.
• One reason that I started to really like the Pouncey pick is that from the outside, you cannot tell what management and the coaching staff thinks about their own players. Maybe the Steelers had confidence in William Gay to rebound from a tough year to perform at the level he did in 2008. Maybe they really like Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett and think each could be a solid contributor this year. When the Steelers passed on Golden Tate in the second round, I started to think that maybe Tomlin and the coaching staff still have confidence in Limas Sweed and that maybe Hines does have 2-3 good years left in him. And then…
• The Steelers drafted Emmanuel Sanders from SMU in the third round at WR and traded for Bryant McFadden to return to Pittsburgh after a year in the desert at cornerback. I am not criticizing these actions on their own merit, Sanders may turn into a very good slot receiver and McFadden offers depth and insurance in the secondary and basically cost the Steelers nothing but a few extra dollars. What it does tell me, however, is that the Steelers do not have confidence in their secondary as currently constituted and do not believe Limas Sweed is ever going to offer them much. Wide receiver and cornerback will definitely be the big question marks for the Steelers as they enter training camp in a couple of months.
• As for the rest of the Steelers draft, I was not overwhelmed. After the Sanders pick in the third round, I wish they would have pulled the trigger on Golden Tate in the second and see if they could have landed Worilds or a similar player in the third. I think Tate could be a dynamic player in this league and could have been groomed to take over for Ward in a couple of years. The linebackers the Steelers took, three in total, will all be projects while contributing on special teams in the meantime. It is impossible to assess a draft class until a few years down the line, but that will be doubly true for this Steelers’ draft class as most will not be expected to contribute for a few years, except for Maurkice Pouncey of course.
• I was pushing for and hoping the Steelers would take a corner in the first round of the draft as I thought it would be the most impactful position for the 2010 Steelers. With Kyle Wilson and Kareem Jackson on the board, Mike Tomlin and company still selected center/guard Maurkice Pouncey from Florida. The more that I thought about the pick, the more that I really liked it. Pouncey is going to start right away and hopefully sure up the interior of a line that has struggled a bit in recent seasons. That will be just as impactful as a cornerback, and could solidify the center position for the next ten years as well.
• One reason that I started to really like the Pouncey pick is that from the outside, you cannot tell what management and the coaching staff thinks about their own players. Maybe the Steelers had confidence in William Gay to rebound from a tough year to perform at the level he did in 2008. Maybe they really like Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett and think each could be a solid contributor this year. When the Steelers passed on Golden Tate in the second round, I started to think that maybe Tomlin and the coaching staff still have confidence in Limas Sweed and that maybe Hines does have 2-3 good years left in him. And then…
• The Steelers drafted Emmanuel Sanders from SMU in the third round at WR and traded for Bryant McFadden to return to Pittsburgh after a year in the desert at cornerback. I am not criticizing these actions on their own merit, Sanders may turn into a very good slot receiver and McFadden offers depth and insurance in the secondary and basically cost the Steelers nothing but a few extra dollars. What it does tell me, however, is that the Steelers do not have confidence in their secondary as currently constituted and do not believe Limas Sweed is ever going to offer them much. Wide receiver and cornerback will definitely be the big question marks for the Steelers as they enter training camp in a couple of months.
• As for the rest of the Steelers draft, I was not overwhelmed. After the Sanders pick in the third round, I wish they would have pulled the trigger on Golden Tate in the second and see if they could have landed Worilds or a similar player in the third. I think Tate could be a dynamic player in this league and could have been groomed to take over for Ward in a couple of years. The linebackers the Steelers took, three in total, will all be projects while contributing on special teams in the meantime. It is impossible to assess a draft class until a few years down the line, but that will be doubly true for this Steelers’ draft class as most will not be expected to contribute for a few years, except for Maurkice Pouncey of course.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Steelers Pick and First Round Mock
The Steelers head into the first round of the NFL draft tonight in a good position with their number 18 overall pick. The Steelers have no definitive needs in their starting line-up and are in a position to take the best available player with their selection. Yes, they have some needs, but none are so desperately glaring for the 2010 season that the Steelers would need to reach on any specific position with their first round pick. The Steelers could use an upgrade and added depth at the corner position, and upgrade on the offensive line, and inside linebacker depth and potentially an heir apparent to the aging James Farrior. Depending on how things shake out in front of them, I could see the Steelers taking any of those three positions in the first round and addressing the other two at some point in the draft.
This all assumes, of course, that the Steelers do not make the bold move and deal quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sometime before or during the draft. If the Steelers decide to move Roethlisberger, all bets are off. I really do not believe the Steelers are going to move Ben for a variety of reasons, but if they would decide to move him, here would be my criteria to make a deal. The Steelers would need to receive at least two first round draft picks (this year and next year’s) and they better be absolutely 100% sold on a quarterback in this draft that they can develop as their franchise guy. I don’t see both of those things happening.
(And just to get my thoughts on the Big Ben suspension out of the way here: In short, I think the suspension was way, way too severe. It is a minimum of 25% of the season, equivalent to 40 games in baseball or 20 games in basketball or hockey, seems very harsh when you think of it in those terms. Four games is what someone should get for using steroids, which is cheating, or multiple violations of the drug or conduct policy, not in an incident that involves he said-she said anecdotes. I am not saying Ben is in the right, he obviously has some kind of problem with how he treats women, but the Commissioner is going down quite a slippery slope in my opinion. That being said, the NFL is able to do what it wants as long as it falls under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and here it is looking to protect its image, which is understandable from a business sense. As the old saying goes, no use crying over spilt milk. Ben’s going to miss four games, oh well, let’s move on to things we can actually speculate on.)
One rule before we start the mock draft, no trades. Trades are impossible to predict and change the complete makeover of the draft. I may mention a team looking to trade, but we are going to stick with the order as-is. So without further ado, let’s get to The People’s Quarterback first ever, NFL First Round Mock Draft:
Pick One – St. Louis Rams
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma – I would take Suh here, but if a team is sold on a quarterback being their potential franchise guy, they have to take him. It sounds as though the Rams are sold.
Pick Two – Detroit Lions
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska – Suh was the most dominant player in college football last year and his size, skill and athleticism should anchor a NFL defense for years. The Lions will have a QB in Matt Stafford on offense and Suh on defense to lead this team for the foreseeable future. There may just be hope in Detroit yet…
Pick Three – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma – Perfect defensive tackle for the Bucs as they return to their 4-3 Tampa Two defensive scheme. McCoy could be a real star in the Warren Sapp-type model in this system.
Pick Four – Washington Redskins
Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State – The Redskins need to significantly upgrade their dismal offensive line and Okung is the consensus top tackle in a heavily loaded offensive tackle draft. The Redskins will need Okung to protect McNabb’s blindside as he gets up there in age.
Pick Five – Kansas City Chiefs
Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma – Yes if you are counting at home, that makes three Oklahoma guys in the top five. If Bradford and Gresham do not get hurt last year, that team wins the National Title. Chiefs could be tempted to draft Eric Berry here, or possibly trade down, but I don’t think Patriots’ disciple and current Chiefs GM Scott Pioli is going to spend top five money on a safety.
Pick Six – Seattle Seahawks
Eric Berry, S, Tennessee – Seattle will be tempted here to grab an offensive lineman or running back C.J. Spiller but ultimately will take the best player left on the board in Berry and hope that Spiller falls to them at number fourteen.
Pick Seven – Cleveland Browns
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State – Many “experts” feel that Bryant will drop because of his off-field transgressions. If he doesn’t go here, I could see that happening as well. But the Browns are desperate for a playmaker on offense and you know Mike Holmgren is an offensive guy.
Pick Eight – Oakland Raiders
Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers – Who really knows what Al Davis will do, but we do know that he is always enamored with potential. Well Anthony Davis probably has the most potential of any tackle in this draft, and the Raiders do need offensive line help.
Pick Nine – Buffalo Bills
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa – This feels like a pseudo-fantasy draft, only with offensive tackles. You know how the first guy who takes a defense or tight end in your fantasy draft always begins the run where like five or six go in the next round, I feel the same thing about the offensive tackles early in this draft.
Pick Ten – Jacksonville Jaguars
Earl Thomas, S, Texas – This is a spot where I definitely could see a trade happening. The Eagles want to move up for Thomas and the Seahawks could look to move up for Spiller, among many other possibilities, but we had to play by the rules. I also think somehow, someway, Tim Tebow ends up in a Jaguars uniform in this draft.
Pick Eleven – Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
Rolando McLain, LB, Alabama – This is another one of the picks that the Broncos got in the Jay Cutler deal, a move that looks better and better every day and one that I very much applauded at the time. McLain is by far the best rated inside linebacker in the draft.
Pick Twelve – Miami Dolphins
Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee – Williams is a run stuffer and a guy who eats up blockers. Perfect fit to play in Miami’s 3-4 scheme at end or nose tackle if needed. I have seen guys projecting Derrick Morgan out of Georgia Tech with this pick, but Morgan is your prototype 4-3 DE. I just do not see how he would fit in Miami’s system.
Pick Thirteen – San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State – San Fran seems sold on Alex Smith at QB, otherwise this could be a potential landing spot for Jimmy Clausen. Wilson has quickly elevated up draft boards. I like Haden just a tad better, but Mike Singletary doesn’t usually follow the conventional path.
Pick Fourteen – Seattle Seahawks (From Denver)
CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson – The Seahawks luck out and get Spiller with the fourteenth pick. Spiller has Chris Johnson-type upside and Pete Carroll loves big-play ability in his running backs.
Pick Fifteen – New York Giants
Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho – This is an interesting pick for the Giants who could go a number of different directions. I think they play it safe and upgrade their offensive line.
Pick Sixteen – Tennessee Titans
Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech – I think Morgan will be the pick here if he is still available. Jason Pierre-Paul would be another candidate as a pass-rushing defensive end out of South Florida.
Pick Seventeen – San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame – The 49ers passed once on Clausen, but I do not think they would pass a second time. I could definitely see them trading back a few spots as the next few teams do not need quarterbacks and still landing Clausen in the early 20s. I like Clausen, by the way. They guy has played in a pro-system, has the arm, has the moxy. I think he could be a really good NFL QB in the right system.
Pick Eighteen – Pittsburgh Steelers
Joe Haden, CB, Florida – The pick many of you have been waiting for. I really think this would be best case scenario for the Steelers, that is if Haden or Kyle Wilson is available at this point in the draft. Assuming the Steelers do not trade Ben, they are built to win now with their aging defense and off-season signings. A cornerback would best suit the near-term as the Steelers must improve on their pass-coverage to get back to and win another Super Bowl. If Haden and Wilson are both gone, I could see the Steelers taking Iupati here or Maurkice Pouncey of Florida to upgrade the interior of their offensive line.
Pick Nineteen – Atlanta Falcons
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida – Everyone has the Falcons taking a defensive end here so who am I to disagree. Usually, Brandon Graham of Michigan has been that defensive end, but I don’t think the Falcons are passing on Pierre-Paul if he is available.
Pick Twenty – Houston Texans
Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida – With the loss of Dunta Robinson, I think the Texans would really like a corner here but with Wilson and Haden off the board they will use the opportunity to upgrade the interior of their offensive line.
Pick Twenty One – Cincinnati Bengals
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma – The Bengals need to give QB Carson Palmer more playmakers and Gresham will be the best available at this point, not to mention the Bengals need for a tight end. Gresham missed all of last season to an injury but reports are that he is fully recovered and tested well. I originally like Demaryius Thomas here, the WR out of Georgia Tech, but that was until the Bengals went out and grabbed Antonio Bryant, the former Pitt star, to play opposite of Ochocinco.
Pick Twenty Two – New England Patriots
Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas – Another of the hybrid types that Bill Belichick loves. Can play OLB in the 3-4 or DE in the 4-3. Would be a steal for the Pats at this point in the draft.
Pick Twenty Three – Green Bay Packers
Charles Brown, OT, USC – As great as Aaron Rodgers is at avoiding the rush, it is still important for the Packers to keep their franchise guy off of his back. Brown is the best tackle available at this point and should help an aging offensive line.
Pick Twenty Four – Philadelphia Eagles
Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama – If the Eagles are unable to move up and grab a safety earlier in the first round, they could go in a number of different directions with this pick. My best guess is that they still look to upgrade in the secondary.
Pick Twenty Five – Baltimore Ravens
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech – Even with the addition on Anquan Boldin in the offseason the Ravens are still looking for playmakers to surround their franchise QB Joe Flacco with, a very sound strategy by my estimation.
Pick Twenty Six – Arizona Cardinals
Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan – Best player available pick. Besides, even with the loss of Kurt Warner and Boldin this offseason, it is still the defensive side of the ball the Cardinals have to be most concerned with. This is the defense that was absolutely torched by the Packers and Saints in the playoffs.
Pick Twenty Seven– Dallas Cowboys
Taylor Mays, S, USC – Why not, Jerry Jones loves stars and Mays has the look of one. Look is the key word here, however, as the jury is definitely still out on whether Mays can play or not.
Pick Twenty Eight – San Diego Chargers
Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State – Would be a replacement for LaDainian Tomlinson and a good compliment to Darren Sproles.
Pick Twenty Nine – New York Jets
Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU – Hughes would play OLB in the Jets’ 3-4 scheme and he certainly has the athleticism to do it. We know Rex Ryan loves getting after the QB and Hughes is certainly an expert at that.
Pick Thirty – Minnesota Vikings
Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers – Vikings are a very well rounded football team, especially if Favre comes back, but their most pressing concern is probably in the secondary. Besides, we are pretty much throwing darts blindfolded at this point!
Pick Thirty One – Indianapolis Colts
Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State – We have to have at least one local player in the first round, right? Odrick had an outstanding year anchoring Penn State’s defensive line and should fit in nicely playing next to Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
Pick Thirty Two – New Orleans Saints
Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri – Weatherspoon would replace the departed Scott Fujita in the Saints linebacking core. The Saints have to go defense with this pick I would imagine.
Well there you have it, the first ever People’s Quarterback Mock Draft. Let me be the first to tell you that it was not nearly as fun to do one of these that so many of the draft analysts out there would leave you to believe...
This all assumes, of course, that the Steelers do not make the bold move and deal quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sometime before or during the draft. If the Steelers decide to move Roethlisberger, all bets are off. I really do not believe the Steelers are going to move Ben for a variety of reasons, but if they would decide to move him, here would be my criteria to make a deal. The Steelers would need to receive at least two first round draft picks (this year and next year’s) and they better be absolutely 100% sold on a quarterback in this draft that they can develop as their franchise guy. I don’t see both of those things happening.
(And just to get my thoughts on the Big Ben suspension out of the way here: In short, I think the suspension was way, way too severe. It is a minimum of 25% of the season, equivalent to 40 games in baseball or 20 games in basketball or hockey, seems very harsh when you think of it in those terms. Four games is what someone should get for using steroids, which is cheating, or multiple violations of the drug or conduct policy, not in an incident that involves he said-she said anecdotes. I am not saying Ben is in the right, he obviously has some kind of problem with how he treats women, but the Commissioner is going down quite a slippery slope in my opinion. That being said, the NFL is able to do what it wants as long as it falls under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and here it is looking to protect its image, which is understandable from a business sense. As the old saying goes, no use crying over spilt milk. Ben’s going to miss four games, oh well, let’s move on to things we can actually speculate on.)
One rule before we start the mock draft, no trades. Trades are impossible to predict and change the complete makeover of the draft. I may mention a team looking to trade, but we are going to stick with the order as-is. So without further ado, let’s get to The People’s Quarterback first ever, NFL First Round Mock Draft:
Pick One – St. Louis Rams
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma – I would take Suh here, but if a team is sold on a quarterback being their potential franchise guy, they have to take him. It sounds as though the Rams are sold.
Pick Two – Detroit Lions
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska – Suh was the most dominant player in college football last year and his size, skill and athleticism should anchor a NFL defense for years. The Lions will have a QB in Matt Stafford on offense and Suh on defense to lead this team for the foreseeable future. There may just be hope in Detroit yet…
Pick Three – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma – Perfect defensive tackle for the Bucs as they return to their 4-3 Tampa Two defensive scheme. McCoy could be a real star in the Warren Sapp-type model in this system.
Pick Four – Washington Redskins
Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State – The Redskins need to significantly upgrade their dismal offensive line and Okung is the consensus top tackle in a heavily loaded offensive tackle draft. The Redskins will need Okung to protect McNabb’s blindside as he gets up there in age.
Pick Five – Kansas City Chiefs
Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma – Yes if you are counting at home, that makes three Oklahoma guys in the top five. If Bradford and Gresham do not get hurt last year, that team wins the National Title. Chiefs could be tempted to draft Eric Berry here, or possibly trade down, but I don’t think Patriots’ disciple and current Chiefs GM Scott Pioli is going to spend top five money on a safety.
Pick Six – Seattle Seahawks
Eric Berry, S, Tennessee – Seattle will be tempted here to grab an offensive lineman or running back C.J. Spiller but ultimately will take the best player left on the board in Berry and hope that Spiller falls to them at number fourteen.
Pick Seven – Cleveland Browns
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State – Many “experts” feel that Bryant will drop because of his off-field transgressions. If he doesn’t go here, I could see that happening as well. But the Browns are desperate for a playmaker on offense and you know Mike Holmgren is an offensive guy.
Pick Eight – Oakland Raiders
Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers – Who really knows what Al Davis will do, but we do know that he is always enamored with potential. Well Anthony Davis probably has the most potential of any tackle in this draft, and the Raiders do need offensive line help.
Pick Nine – Buffalo Bills
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa – This feels like a pseudo-fantasy draft, only with offensive tackles. You know how the first guy who takes a defense or tight end in your fantasy draft always begins the run where like five or six go in the next round, I feel the same thing about the offensive tackles early in this draft.
Pick Ten – Jacksonville Jaguars
Earl Thomas, S, Texas – This is a spot where I definitely could see a trade happening. The Eagles want to move up for Thomas and the Seahawks could look to move up for Spiller, among many other possibilities, but we had to play by the rules. I also think somehow, someway, Tim Tebow ends up in a Jaguars uniform in this draft.
Pick Eleven – Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
Rolando McLain, LB, Alabama – This is another one of the picks that the Broncos got in the Jay Cutler deal, a move that looks better and better every day and one that I very much applauded at the time. McLain is by far the best rated inside linebacker in the draft.
Pick Twelve – Miami Dolphins
Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee – Williams is a run stuffer and a guy who eats up blockers. Perfect fit to play in Miami’s 3-4 scheme at end or nose tackle if needed. I have seen guys projecting Derrick Morgan out of Georgia Tech with this pick, but Morgan is your prototype 4-3 DE. I just do not see how he would fit in Miami’s system.
Pick Thirteen – San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State – San Fran seems sold on Alex Smith at QB, otherwise this could be a potential landing spot for Jimmy Clausen. Wilson has quickly elevated up draft boards. I like Haden just a tad better, but Mike Singletary doesn’t usually follow the conventional path.
Pick Fourteen – Seattle Seahawks (From Denver)
CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson – The Seahawks luck out and get Spiller with the fourteenth pick. Spiller has Chris Johnson-type upside and Pete Carroll loves big-play ability in his running backs.
Pick Fifteen – New York Giants
Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho – This is an interesting pick for the Giants who could go a number of different directions. I think they play it safe and upgrade their offensive line.
Pick Sixteen – Tennessee Titans
Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech – I think Morgan will be the pick here if he is still available. Jason Pierre-Paul would be another candidate as a pass-rushing defensive end out of South Florida.
Pick Seventeen – San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame – The 49ers passed once on Clausen, but I do not think they would pass a second time. I could definitely see them trading back a few spots as the next few teams do not need quarterbacks and still landing Clausen in the early 20s. I like Clausen, by the way. They guy has played in a pro-system, has the arm, has the moxy. I think he could be a really good NFL QB in the right system.
Pick Eighteen – Pittsburgh Steelers
Joe Haden, CB, Florida – The pick many of you have been waiting for. I really think this would be best case scenario for the Steelers, that is if Haden or Kyle Wilson is available at this point in the draft. Assuming the Steelers do not trade Ben, they are built to win now with their aging defense and off-season signings. A cornerback would best suit the near-term as the Steelers must improve on their pass-coverage to get back to and win another Super Bowl. If Haden and Wilson are both gone, I could see the Steelers taking Iupati here or Maurkice Pouncey of Florida to upgrade the interior of their offensive line.
Pick Nineteen – Atlanta Falcons
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida – Everyone has the Falcons taking a defensive end here so who am I to disagree. Usually, Brandon Graham of Michigan has been that defensive end, but I don’t think the Falcons are passing on Pierre-Paul if he is available.
Pick Twenty – Houston Texans
Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida – With the loss of Dunta Robinson, I think the Texans would really like a corner here but with Wilson and Haden off the board they will use the opportunity to upgrade the interior of their offensive line.
Pick Twenty One – Cincinnati Bengals
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma – The Bengals need to give QB Carson Palmer more playmakers and Gresham will be the best available at this point, not to mention the Bengals need for a tight end. Gresham missed all of last season to an injury but reports are that he is fully recovered and tested well. I originally like Demaryius Thomas here, the WR out of Georgia Tech, but that was until the Bengals went out and grabbed Antonio Bryant, the former Pitt star, to play opposite of Ochocinco.
Pick Twenty Two – New England Patriots
Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas – Another of the hybrid types that Bill Belichick loves. Can play OLB in the 3-4 or DE in the 4-3. Would be a steal for the Pats at this point in the draft.
Pick Twenty Three – Green Bay Packers
Charles Brown, OT, USC – As great as Aaron Rodgers is at avoiding the rush, it is still important for the Packers to keep their franchise guy off of his back. Brown is the best tackle available at this point and should help an aging offensive line.
Pick Twenty Four – Philadelphia Eagles
Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama – If the Eagles are unable to move up and grab a safety earlier in the first round, they could go in a number of different directions with this pick. My best guess is that they still look to upgrade in the secondary.
Pick Twenty Five – Baltimore Ravens
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech – Even with the addition on Anquan Boldin in the offseason the Ravens are still looking for playmakers to surround their franchise QB Joe Flacco with, a very sound strategy by my estimation.
Pick Twenty Six – Arizona Cardinals
Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan – Best player available pick. Besides, even with the loss of Kurt Warner and Boldin this offseason, it is still the defensive side of the ball the Cardinals have to be most concerned with. This is the defense that was absolutely torched by the Packers and Saints in the playoffs.
Pick Twenty Seven– Dallas Cowboys
Taylor Mays, S, USC – Why not, Jerry Jones loves stars and Mays has the look of one. Look is the key word here, however, as the jury is definitely still out on whether Mays can play or not.
Pick Twenty Eight – San Diego Chargers
Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State – Would be a replacement for LaDainian Tomlinson and a good compliment to Darren Sproles.
Pick Twenty Nine – New York Jets
Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU – Hughes would play OLB in the Jets’ 3-4 scheme and he certainly has the athleticism to do it. We know Rex Ryan loves getting after the QB and Hughes is certainly an expert at that.
Pick Thirty – Minnesota Vikings
Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers – Vikings are a very well rounded football team, especially if Favre comes back, but their most pressing concern is probably in the secondary. Besides, we are pretty much throwing darts blindfolded at this point!
Pick Thirty One – Indianapolis Colts
Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State – We have to have at least one local player in the first round, right? Odrick had an outstanding year anchoring Penn State’s defensive line and should fit in nicely playing next to Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
Pick Thirty Two – New Orleans Saints
Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri – Weatherspoon would replace the departed Scott Fujita in the Saints linebacking core. The Saints have to go defense with this pick I would imagine.
Well there you have it, the first ever People’s Quarterback Mock Draft. Let me be the first to tell you that it was not nearly as fun to do one of these that so many of the draft analysts out there would leave you to believe...
Brewers Continue Domination of Pirates
When I wrote the Pirates are finding a way to win piece a couple of days ago, I was afraid that it might be the last positive thing I write about them for a while, even if the article itself was only semi-positive. I knew the Pirates were giving up runs at an alarming rate, I knew the Pirates were not scoring enough runs, and I knew the Milwaukee Brewers were on deck for a three game series. That is the same Milwaukee Brewers who had beaten the Pirates 33 of the previous 45 match-ups, including at one time a 17 game win streak against the Buccos and a still active 21 game win streak at home. (To make matters worse, the Pirates will begin a three game series in Milwaukee on Monday.)
Sure enough, the Pirates were absolutely scorched in the first two games of this series. The Pirates have been outscored 16-1 in the two embarrassing losses, pushing their season run differential to 91-54 in favor of their opponents. The (-37) run differential is now the worst in the majors. The Pirates have not only been dominated in their first two meetings with Brewers, they have looked flat-out terrible in all three aspects of the game. Terrible pitching, bad hitting and poor fielding are about the best adjectives to describe the Pirates’ play in the past two games. All of the momentum and good will that the Pirates had built up over their first twelve games has quickly disappeared in two nights. The only possible positive for the Pirates is that their fans may have too busy worrying about the Penguins playoff run to have noticed their awfulness.
Daniel McCutchen will take the mound later today for the Pirates in an afternoon tilt to wrap up the series with the Brewers before they embark on a 10 game road trip. It will be McCutchen’s task to stop the bleeding a little and help the Pirates regain a little of the momentum they had gained from their quick start that they are so dangerously close to losing entirely. I, for one, do not have high hopes that he or the Pirates can accomplish this.
Sure enough, the Pirates were absolutely scorched in the first two games of this series. The Pirates have been outscored 16-1 in the two embarrassing losses, pushing their season run differential to 91-54 in favor of their opponents. The (-37) run differential is now the worst in the majors. The Pirates have not only been dominated in their first two meetings with Brewers, they have looked flat-out terrible in all three aspects of the game. Terrible pitching, bad hitting and poor fielding are about the best adjectives to describe the Pirates’ play in the past two games. All of the momentum and good will that the Pirates had built up over their first twelve games has quickly disappeared in two nights. The only possible positive for the Pirates is that their fans may have too busy worrying about the Penguins playoff run to have noticed their awfulness.
Daniel McCutchen will take the mound later today for the Pirates in an afternoon tilt to wrap up the series with the Brewers before they embark on a 10 game road trip. It will be McCutchen’s task to stop the bleeding a little and help the Pirates regain a little of the momentum they had gained from their quick start that they are so dangerously close to losing entirely. I, for one, do not have high hopes that he or the Pirates can accomplish this.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
NFL Draft Overkill
The NFL Draft kicks off tomorrow night, shifting to prime time and three days of live NFL draft coverage. I have not written much concerning the NFL Draft because, quite frankly, I am not all that interested in it, comparatively speaking. We have the start of Major League Baseball, the NHL and NBA playoffs in full gear, and yet people are obsessed over a bunch of players that have yet to play a game of professional football. It has to be the most overrated and over-covered aspect in all of professional sports. Everyone and their mother has a mock draft, Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. are on TV more than Law ‘N Order reruns, and every Joe Schmo out there has their own opinion even though none of them matter except for the people who actually make the picks, and you will never get accurate information from them.
Don’t get me wrong; I understand that it is fun to read up on the different prospects, to argue about the potential future stars of your favorite NFL team, to explore different trade scenarios, and in the general sense to simply talk about football again. I read up on the draft, have my favorite mock draft experts, and of course have an opinion on what teams should or should not do. But the over-obsession with all things NFL Draft just completely blows my mind.
Hours and hours are spent speculating on the potential of 21 and 22 year old kids and what NFL teams will or will not do, when in actuality nobody has any idea. The best NFL general managers are wrong half the time, the most surefire prospects sometimes become busts, and there are several guys that are not even drafted every year that go on to be successful NFL players, sometimes even stars (Willie Parker anyone?). The only one who is always right is Mel Kiper, who talks so often and out of both sides of his mouth that he covers every possible outcome that may or may not happen, and he will be happy to remind you of the circumstance he said that ended up being right afterward.
At least the NFL Draft is usually the big story of the off-season, especially here in Pittsburgh where the Steelers are rarely active in the free agent market. That has certainly NOT been the case this year. Between Ben, Santonio, the return of Larry Foote and Antwaan Randle El, and the resigning of Jeff Reed and Casey Hampton, there has been plenty to talk about besides the NFL Draft. Yet, that does not stop half of the newspaper features, sports talk shows and radio callers to continue to harp on the NFL Draft and what the Steelers should or should not do.
Well…
Since the draft begins tomorrow night, I guess I have held out long enough. I will have my breakdown of what I think the Steelers should do, as well as my complete 1st Round mock draft, on the Blog for your enjoyment tomorrow morning. I hope you will enjoy reading it more than I have enjoyed the crazy amount of coverage that the draft gets everywhere else.
Don’t get me wrong; I understand that it is fun to read up on the different prospects, to argue about the potential future stars of your favorite NFL team, to explore different trade scenarios, and in the general sense to simply talk about football again. I read up on the draft, have my favorite mock draft experts, and of course have an opinion on what teams should or should not do. But the over-obsession with all things NFL Draft just completely blows my mind.
Hours and hours are spent speculating on the potential of 21 and 22 year old kids and what NFL teams will or will not do, when in actuality nobody has any idea. The best NFL general managers are wrong half the time, the most surefire prospects sometimes become busts, and there are several guys that are not even drafted every year that go on to be successful NFL players, sometimes even stars (Willie Parker anyone?). The only one who is always right is Mel Kiper, who talks so often and out of both sides of his mouth that he covers every possible outcome that may or may not happen, and he will be happy to remind you of the circumstance he said that ended up being right afterward.
At least the NFL Draft is usually the big story of the off-season, especially here in Pittsburgh where the Steelers are rarely active in the free agent market. That has certainly NOT been the case this year. Between Ben, Santonio, the return of Larry Foote and Antwaan Randle El, and the resigning of Jeff Reed and Casey Hampton, there has been plenty to talk about besides the NFL Draft. Yet, that does not stop half of the newspaper features, sports talk shows and radio callers to continue to harp on the NFL Draft and what the Steelers should or should not do.
Well…
Since the draft begins tomorrow night, I guess I have held out long enough. I will have my breakdown of what I think the Steelers should do, as well as my complete 1st Round mock draft, on the Blog for your enjoyment tomorrow morning. I hope you will enjoy reading it more than I have enjoyed the crazy amount of coverage that the draft gets everywhere else.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Pirates Finding Ways to Win
As the Pirates get set to start a three game series with the Milwaukee Brewers tonight at PNC Park, a team that has owned the Pirates in recent seasons, the hometown club is 7-5 and only one game behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette (article), the latest the Pirates have even shared the division lead since 2001 is April 25th, 2002 when they were 13-7. Of all the negative statistics and anecdotes you can pull from the 17 consecutive years of futility, that has to be one of the most depressing facts.
So how have the Pirates won seven of their first twelve? That is a great question, and one that is at least a bit easier to answer after the Pirates played their best baseball of the season during their weekend sweep of their division rival, the Cincinnati Reds. Still, the Pirates are being outscored 75-53 on the year and it doesn’t take a math wizard to figure out that a run differential like that does not point toward future success.
Even if you take away the 14 earned runs given up by Hayden Penn and Brian Burres, two players that have no business in the major leagues right now, the Pirates have still been outscored by eight runs on the season and their team ERA (without those two) of 5.45 would still rank near the bottom of the National League. The Pirates have won seven of their first twelve by winning close games, including a 4-0 record in one run games. History shows that winning one run games is usually a matter of circumstance and tends to even out over time, so the Pirates cannot count on continued success in these tight games. They must start playing better baseball in every facet of the game.
That was the encouraging part of the weekend series with the Reds. Yes, the Pirates had two ninth inning wins, but the Buccos got solid pitching (only 10 runs in the three games), timely hitting through the order and played the best defense they have played so far this season. If the Pirates had won seven of twelve in mid-June most would not notice, but that’s what makes the beginning of the baseball season so much fun. Let’s hope the Pirates can carry their solid play from the weekend over to the three game set with the Brewers, a team they have really struggled with in recent seasons. Who knows, a strong performance in this series and Pirate fans may be able to get their hopes up just a bit.
So how have the Pirates won seven of their first twelve? That is a great question, and one that is at least a bit easier to answer after the Pirates played their best baseball of the season during their weekend sweep of their division rival, the Cincinnati Reds. Still, the Pirates are being outscored 75-53 on the year and it doesn’t take a math wizard to figure out that a run differential like that does not point toward future success.
Even if you take away the 14 earned runs given up by Hayden Penn and Brian Burres, two players that have no business in the major leagues right now, the Pirates have still been outscored by eight runs on the season and their team ERA (without those two) of 5.45 would still rank near the bottom of the National League. The Pirates have won seven of their first twelve by winning close games, including a 4-0 record in one run games. History shows that winning one run games is usually a matter of circumstance and tends to even out over time, so the Pirates cannot count on continued success in these tight games. They must start playing better baseball in every facet of the game.
That was the encouraging part of the weekend series with the Reds. Yes, the Pirates had two ninth inning wins, but the Buccos got solid pitching (only 10 runs in the three games), timely hitting through the order and played the best defense they have played so far this season. If the Pirates had won seven of twelve in mid-June most would not notice, but that’s what makes the beginning of the baseball season so much fun. Let’s hope the Pirates can carry their solid play from the weekend over to the three game set with the Brewers, a team they have really struggled with in recent seasons. Who knows, a strong performance in this series and Pirate fans may be able to get their hopes up just a bit.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Special Saturday NBA/NHL Smorgasbord!
Sorry for the lack of posts this week. My real job has been a bit crazy this week and since I am not yet getting paid for my brilliant sports commentary, the blog must take a backseat to the Man at times… Let’s make it up with a Special Saturday smorgasbord on the NBA and NHL playoffs:
· When the NHL had a lockout a few years back and instituted a league-wide revenue sharing system and a salary cap, the powers that be cited the parity the new system would produce. If the first few days of the NHL playoffs is any indication, parity has definitely become the result. Each of the top two seeds in both the Eastern and Western conferences lost their opening round playoff game at home. The Penguins, the defending Stanley Cup champ, likewise lost their opening round game at home. This on the heels of the San Jose Sharks being upset in the first round last year after finishing the regular season with the most points in the NHL.
· The Penguins rebounded nicely to capture game two last night with another world-class effort from their captain, Sidney Crosby. It is sometimes easy for a team and/or a team’s fanbase to panic after one loss, but the Penguins and their fans remembered that they had lost their first two games in both the Washington and Detroit series a year ago only to rebound and win each series. The Pens came through and took care of business in game two. They will now look to carry over this momentum on the road in Ottawa on Sunday.
· The one thing that did worry me from the opening loss was the Pens’ lack of defensive presence. Yes, Marc-Andre Fleury had a bad night, but the relative ease that the Senators were getting to the net with is what worried me most. This playoff edition of the Penguins’ roster does not feature the same lockdown defensemen they had in the playoffs last year. It is important that the puck-moving defensemen the Penguins now feature on their blue line are also responsible in the defensive end. They did a much better job in game two, now the Pens must hope it continues through the rest of the series and playoffs.
· Philadelphia split with the Devils in New Jersey and gave Martin Brodeur and company all they could handle. I still like the Flyers chances at pulling the upset and allowing the inevitable Penguins-Capitals showdown to be delayed until the Eastern Conference Finals. I had to italicize “inevitable” since both the Pens and Caps will need to raise their own level of play immediately or risk falling victim to a first round upset of their own.
· LeBron James is going to win the NBA MVP, and it should be unanimous, but blog favorite Kevin Durant ended up leading the NBA in scoring this year with a 30.1 point per game average, slightly edging out James and his 29.7ppg while he rested for the final few games of the regular season. Durant became the youngest player in NBA history to lead the league in scoring at just 21 years and 197 days old.
· Cleveland is going to win the NBA title this year, you can write it down now. This will be the first of many championships for James, who is slowly but surely developing that killer instinct that even the greatest players need to get over the championship threshold.
· NBA Eastern Conference Picks: Quarterfinals: Cavs over Bulls in 4, Magic over Bobcats in 5, Hawks over Bucks in 5, Celtics over Heat in 7. Semifinals: Cavs over Celtics in 5, Magic over Hawks in 6. Eastern Finals: Cavs over Magic in 7.
· NBA Western Conference Picks: Quarterfinals: Lakers over Thunder in 7, Spurs over Mavericks in 6, Suns over Blazers in 6, Jazz over Nuggets in 6. Semifinals: Jazz over Lakers in 6, Spurs over Suns in 6. Western Finals: Jazz over Spurs in 7.
· Many of you are probably wondering how I can go against the Lakers in the West. The simple reason is health…Kobe hasn’t looked like himself. Andrew Bynum is banged up, and the Lakers point guards have been terrible. The entire West, actually, is battling the injury bug with every contender having at least one significant injury. The team that wins the chance to get beat by Cleveland in the Finals will probably be the team that can remain the healthiest.
· NBA Finals: Cavaliers over Jazz in six games, LeBron takes home his first NBA Finals MVP.
· When the NHL had a lockout a few years back and instituted a league-wide revenue sharing system and a salary cap, the powers that be cited the parity the new system would produce. If the first few days of the NHL playoffs is any indication, parity has definitely become the result. Each of the top two seeds in both the Eastern and Western conferences lost their opening round playoff game at home. The Penguins, the defending Stanley Cup champ, likewise lost their opening round game at home. This on the heels of the San Jose Sharks being upset in the first round last year after finishing the regular season with the most points in the NHL.
· The Penguins rebounded nicely to capture game two last night with another world-class effort from their captain, Sidney Crosby. It is sometimes easy for a team and/or a team’s fanbase to panic after one loss, but the Penguins and their fans remembered that they had lost their first two games in both the Washington and Detroit series a year ago only to rebound and win each series. The Pens came through and took care of business in game two. They will now look to carry over this momentum on the road in Ottawa on Sunday.
· The one thing that did worry me from the opening loss was the Pens’ lack of defensive presence. Yes, Marc-Andre Fleury had a bad night, but the relative ease that the Senators were getting to the net with is what worried me most. This playoff edition of the Penguins’ roster does not feature the same lockdown defensemen they had in the playoffs last year. It is important that the puck-moving defensemen the Penguins now feature on their blue line are also responsible in the defensive end. They did a much better job in game two, now the Pens must hope it continues through the rest of the series and playoffs.
· Philadelphia split with the Devils in New Jersey and gave Martin Brodeur and company all they could handle. I still like the Flyers chances at pulling the upset and allowing the inevitable Penguins-Capitals showdown to be delayed until the Eastern Conference Finals. I had to italicize “inevitable” since both the Pens and Caps will need to raise their own level of play immediately or risk falling victim to a first round upset of their own.
· LeBron James is going to win the NBA MVP, and it should be unanimous, but blog favorite Kevin Durant ended up leading the NBA in scoring this year with a 30.1 point per game average, slightly edging out James and his 29.7ppg while he rested for the final few games of the regular season. Durant became the youngest player in NBA history to lead the league in scoring at just 21 years and 197 days old.
· Cleveland is going to win the NBA title this year, you can write it down now. This will be the first of many championships for James, who is slowly but surely developing that killer instinct that even the greatest players need to get over the championship threshold.
· NBA Eastern Conference Picks: Quarterfinals: Cavs over Bulls in 4, Magic over Bobcats in 5, Hawks over Bucks in 5, Celtics over Heat in 7. Semifinals: Cavs over Celtics in 5, Magic over Hawks in 6. Eastern Finals: Cavs over Magic in 7.
· NBA Western Conference Picks: Quarterfinals: Lakers over Thunder in 7, Spurs over Mavericks in 6, Suns over Blazers in 6, Jazz over Nuggets in 6. Semifinals: Jazz over Lakers in 6, Spurs over Suns in 6. Western Finals: Jazz over Spurs in 7.
· Many of you are probably wondering how I can go against the Lakers in the West. The simple reason is health…Kobe hasn’t looked like himself. Andrew Bynum is banged up, and the Lakers point guards have been terrible. The entire West, actually, is battling the injury bug with every contender having at least one significant injury. The team that wins the chance to get beat by Cleveland in the Finals will probably be the team that can remain the healthiest.
· NBA Finals: Cavaliers over Jazz in six games, LeBron takes home his first NBA Finals MVP.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
NHL Playoff Preview
Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa. The Penguins begin their Stanley Cup Title defense tonight against the Ottawa Senators at the Mellon Arena. It is time to find out whether or not they can turn the switch on like they have been alluding to all season long. The Penguins inconsistency does concern me, but when you are as strong as the Pens are down the middle with Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Fleury in goal, you are awfully tough to beat in a seven games series. The key for the Penguins will be to neutralize the Senators top line featuring Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson. I believe Gonchar and Orpik will get the bulk of the work against the Sens’ top line and the Penguins depth will be the difference in this series. Penguins in five.
Washington vs. Montreal. The Capitals are too explosive for a Montreal team that limps into the playoffs. There is a reason the Caps have the most points and biggest goal differential in the league. Capitals in a sweep.
New Jersey vs. Philadelphia. We will call this the upset special! Philadelphia beat the Devils in five out of six games this year and seems to match up very well with the Devils’ trap. Throw in New Jersey’s recent playoff flops and the inability of all-world goalie Martin Brodeur to lead his team deep in the playoffs and I feel even more comfortable with the Flyers. Flyers in six.
Buffalo vs. Boston. This should be a tight, low scoring series where a few bounces here or there could throw it either way. I find it hard to pick against the best goalie in the world right now, Ryan Miller. Sabres in seven.
San Jose vs. Colorado. Recent playoff failures by the Sharks have people calling for the upset in this one. Colorado is still too young, however, and will have a happy to be there attitude. The Sharks are talented, and this year they avoid the first round upset. Sharks in five.
Chicago vs. Nashville. Chicago is too deep and too talented for this Nashville team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blackhawks give Marian Hossa his third straight trip to the Finals. Blackhawks in five.
Vancouver vs. Los Angeles. This could be the most competitive of the series out West, featuring the young stars of the Kings versus Robert Luongo and the NHL’s scoring leader Henrik Sedin. I think the ultimate difference in this series will be Los Angeles’ advantage on the blue line, where Drew Doughty may just be the best defenseman in the league. Kings in seven.
Phoenix vs. Detroit. Detroit, in danger of missing the playoffs at the Olympic Break, scorched to a 16-3-2 finish to the season to propel themselves to the number five seed. The Red Wings are too experienced and too talented to flop in the first round against an untested playoff team in the Coyotes. Red Wings in five.
Washington vs. Montreal. The Capitals are too explosive for a Montreal team that limps into the playoffs. There is a reason the Caps have the most points and biggest goal differential in the league. Capitals in a sweep.
New Jersey vs. Philadelphia. We will call this the upset special! Philadelphia beat the Devils in five out of six games this year and seems to match up very well with the Devils’ trap. Throw in New Jersey’s recent playoff flops and the inability of all-world goalie Martin Brodeur to lead his team deep in the playoffs and I feel even more comfortable with the Flyers. Flyers in six.
Buffalo vs. Boston. This should be a tight, low scoring series where a few bounces here or there could throw it either way. I find it hard to pick against the best goalie in the world right now, Ryan Miller. Sabres in seven.
San Jose vs. Colorado. Recent playoff failures by the Sharks have people calling for the upset in this one. Colorado is still too young, however, and will have a happy to be there attitude. The Sharks are talented, and this year they avoid the first round upset. Sharks in five.
Chicago vs. Nashville. Chicago is too deep and too talented for this Nashville team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blackhawks give Marian Hossa his third straight trip to the Finals. Blackhawks in five.
Vancouver vs. Los Angeles. This could be the most competitive of the series out West, featuring the young stars of the Kings versus Robert Luongo and the NHL’s scoring leader Henrik Sedin. I think the ultimate difference in this series will be Los Angeles’ advantage on the blue line, where Drew Doughty may just be the best defenseman in the league. Kings in seven.
Phoenix vs. Detroit. Detroit, in danger of missing the playoffs at the Olympic Break, scorched to a 16-3-2 finish to the season to propel themselves to the number five seed. The Red Wings are too experienced and too talented to flop in the first round against an untested playoff team in the Coyotes. Red Wings in five.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Leftover Santonio Thoughts
Here are some leftover thoughts of mine on the Santonio Holmes trade as I read through all of the news pieces and opinion columns on the trade today:
· Everyone, and I mean everyone, agrees that the Steelers did not receive fair value for a player of Holmes’ caliber. However, it was reported that the Steelers were going to release Holmes and his problems anyway and thus I am sure other teams either knew this or suspected this, thus lowering the Steelers’ bargaining power.
· I said yesterday that this is a ploy by the Steelers to once again act as though they are above other NFL organizations. I said this in a derogatory manner. I actually like this about the Rooneys and the Steelers organization and believe they are one of the best owners in the business. I just think fans need to realize that winning and money come first, then character and perception. The Steelers feel as though they can win without Santonio, and they are probably right, so his antics were not worth putting up with.
· The Steelers cannot win, at least not immediately, without Roethlisberger, so do not expect to see him as the next one packing his bags. This does, hopefully, send a message to Ben that everyone is fair game to be shown the door if their conduct does not meet professional standards. There is some hypocrisy involved, but I would rather the Steelers value winning first, while doing their best to employ good citizens when possible.
· Ed Bouchette, who covers the Steelers inside and out, basically said on his Pittsburgh Post Gazette blog that many of his teammates would be happy to see Santonio leave. Never have I, or anyone I have talked with, ever heard that Holmes was not a well-liked teammate. He certainly seemed to get along with Roethlisberger and the two had a strong chemistry on the field. I will take Mr. Bouchette’s words as truth, however, as he is in and around the team almost every day. If Holmes was not liked inside the locker room and was behaving as poorly as he was off the field, it makes the trade much easier to understand.
· I said a little while back that the Steelers must have been lying to Randle El that he would be the #3 WR. They were not lying to him; they must have known all along that Santonio could be gone at any minute. Mike Wallace will step into Holmes’ #2 role and deep play threat immediately. Hopefully the production will not drop off too much, but the Steelers must look closely at receivers in the draft now to fill the void in production of a #3 WR and another home run threat that they lose with Wallace’s increased role.
· Finally, I am still a big critic of this trade. At the very least, the Steelers got absolutely minimal value for a very important player in their pass-happy system. They have significantly weakened their chances at a seventh Super Bowl this upcoming season, and more importantly, have taken a weapon away from their franchise quarterback. Maybe that was the intent, however, to show Ben Roethlisberger that they are done catering to him. It is time for Roethlisberger to take ownership of his team and his actions if there is going to be a longtime marriage between him and the Steelers’ organization.
· Everyone, and I mean everyone, agrees that the Steelers did not receive fair value for a player of Holmes’ caliber. However, it was reported that the Steelers were going to release Holmes and his problems anyway and thus I am sure other teams either knew this or suspected this, thus lowering the Steelers’ bargaining power.
· I said yesterday that this is a ploy by the Steelers to once again act as though they are above other NFL organizations. I said this in a derogatory manner. I actually like this about the Rooneys and the Steelers organization and believe they are one of the best owners in the business. I just think fans need to realize that winning and money come first, then character and perception. The Steelers feel as though they can win without Santonio, and they are probably right, so his antics were not worth putting up with.
· The Steelers cannot win, at least not immediately, without Roethlisberger, so do not expect to see him as the next one packing his bags. This does, hopefully, send a message to Ben that everyone is fair game to be shown the door if their conduct does not meet professional standards. There is some hypocrisy involved, but I would rather the Steelers value winning first, while doing their best to employ good citizens when possible.
· Ed Bouchette, who covers the Steelers inside and out, basically said on his Pittsburgh Post Gazette blog that many of his teammates would be happy to see Santonio leave. Never have I, or anyone I have talked with, ever heard that Holmes was not a well-liked teammate. He certainly seemed to get along with Roethlisberger and the two had a strong chemistry on the field. I will take Mr. Bouchette’s words as truth, however, as he is in and around the team almost every day. If Holmes was not liked inside the locker room and was behaving as poorly as he was off the field, it makes the trade much easier to understand.
· I said a little while back that the Steelers must have been lying to Randle El that he would be the #3 WR. They were not lying to him; they must have known all along that Santonio could be gone at any minute. Mike Wallace will step into Holmes’ #2 role and deep play threat immediately. Hopefully the production will not drop off too much, but the Steelers must look closely at receivers in the draft now to fill the void in production of a #3 WR and another home run threat that they lose with Wallace’s increased role.
· Finally, I am still a big critic of this trade. At the very least, the Steelers got absolutely minimal value for a very important player in their pass-happy system. They have significantly weakened their chances at a seventh Super Bowl this upcoming season, and more importantly, have taken a weapon away from their franchise quarterback. Maybe that was the intent, however, to show Ben Roethlisberger that they are done catering to him. It is time for Roethlisberger to take ownership of his team and his actions if there is going to be a longtime marriage between him and the Steelers’ organization.
Santonio Trade Is Ridiculous!
Reports are circulating, including one from ESPN, that wide receiver Santonio Holmes has been traded to the New York Jets for a 5th round pick in this year’s draft. If the reports are true, I find it absolutely, positively ridiculous and I am shocked. Yes, Santonio might smoke pot, yes Santonio might party a little too much, and yes, Santonio might be a complete moron judging by some of his twitter posts among other transgressions, but if the Steelers were to get rid of every guy who smokes pot, parties and is a dummy they might go 0-16 every year. If the NFL, for that matter, got rid of all guys who fit that profile I do not think the league would last very long. The reality is that Holmes can absolutely do what he is paid to do, and that is play football.
And a fifth round pick, are you serious? If Holmes were entering the NFL Draft this year he would absolutely be a first round pick, probably the first receiver taken in the draft. Even if the accusations from the Florida nightclub are true (which they sound like they are not) or the rumors of another failed drug test are true (no proof of this has been presented either) and Holmes is suspended for a portion of the season, he would still be a valuable piece to whatever team he plays for. Holmes has nearly 4,000 yards already in his four seasons in the league. He has averaged over 16 yards per catch in his career and has 20 TDs despite being taken out in the red zone on most opportunities. Did I mention he is yet to turn 26? Did I forget about his Super Bowl MVP? And the Steelers are trading him for a 5th round choice? Am I missing something here?
I guarantee you Jets fans are rejoicing right now. This trade may have just pushed them over the top as the favorite in the AFC next year. They just got a potential #1 wide receiver at best or a great #2 threat with big play potential at worst for the price of a back-up cornerback, about what teams can expect in the 5th round of the draft. Mark Sanchez probably just did a shot of Jack Daniels in a Southern California nightclub, toasting to his newest wide receiver.
If this is the Steelers’ response to the off-field transgressions of their players, it is time for a reality check. They do not hold their players to a higher standard than other teams; they do not have more integrity than other organizations; and the Rooneys care just as much about winning and making money as every other owner in the league. If the Steelers really want to hold their players to a higher standard they should trade James Harrison, Ben Roethlisberger and Jeff Reed while they are at it. Hell, they should give back the four Super Bowl trophies from the '70s as those teams were filled with illegal drug users and criminals of all sorts. Roethlisberger, Holmes, Harrison, and Reed also had a big part in winning the past two Super Bowls, so the Steelers might as well give all six Lombardi Trophies back. See what their fans say then…Please!
This is a joke of an attempt by the Steelers to once again act like they are above other organizations, and many fans will eat it up just as they have for so many years. I, for one, will not. This trade is absolutely ridiculous in my mind, and the Steelers should be ashamed of getting back a 5th round choice for the Super Bowl MVP of just two seasons ago!
And a fifth round pick, are you serious? If Holmes were entering the NFL Draft this year he would absolutely be a first round pick, probably the first receiver taken in the draft. Even if the accusations from the Florida nightclub are true (which they sound like they are not) or the rumors of another failed drug test are true (no proof of this has been presented either) and Holmes is suspended for a portion of the season, he would still be a valuable piece to whatever team he plays for. Holmes has nearly 4,000 yards already in his four seasons in the league. He has averaged over 16 yards per catch in his career and has 20 TDs despite being taken out in the red zone on most opportunities. Did I mention he is yet to turn 26? Did I forget about his Super Bowl MVP? And the Steelers are trading him for a 5th round choice? Am I missing something here?
I guarantee you Jets fans are rejoicing right now. This trade may have just pushed them over the top as the favorite in the AFC next year. They just got a potential #1 wide receiver at best or a great #2 threat with big play potential at worst for the price of a back-up cornerback, about what teams can expect in the 5th round of the draft. Mark Sanchez probably just did a shot of Jack Daniels in a Southern California nightclub, toasting to his newest wide receiver.
If this is the Steelers’ response to the off-field transgressions of their players, it is time for a reality check. They do not hold their players to a higher standard than other teams; they do not have more integrity than other organizations; and the Rooneys care just as much about winning and making money as every other owner in the league. If the Steelers really want to hold their players to a higher standard they should trade James Harrison, Ben Roethlisberger and Jeff Reed while they are at it. Hell, they should give back the four Super Bowl trophies from the '70s as those teams were filled with illegal drug users and criminals of all sorts. Roethlisberger, Holmes, Harrison, and Reed also had a big part in winning the past two Super Bowls, so the Steelers might as well give all six Lombardi Trophies back. See what their fans say then…Please!
This is a joke of an attempt by the Steelers to once again act like they are above other organizations, and many fans will eat it up just as they have for so many years. I, for one, will not. This trade is absolutely ridiculous in my mind, and the Steelers should be ashamed of getting back a 5th round choice for the Super Bowl MVP of just two seasons ago!
Friday, April 9, 2010
TGIF Smorgasbord!
A few thoughts I have had during this great week of sports.
· The Pirates are off to a solid start after taking two of three games from the Dodgers, but they have to clean up the defense if they are going to be competitive at all this year. The Pirates have already committed 4 errors in 3 games (only 73 all of last year) and have failed to make other plays that they need to make (Andy LaRoche’s play in the top of the first in the opener sticks out). On top of that, the Dodgers looked to be stealing bases with ease against catcher Ryan Doumit. The Pirates do not have strike out pitchers as we have talked about on here. If they are to have any success this season, playing above average defense is a must.
· We are only five days into the season and yet only one team is still undefeated (San Francisco Giants) and one team is winless (Houston Astros). That is a far cry from the other major sports and makes baseball a funny game that way. The smallest margin of error exits between winning and losing, that is why even the best teams struggle to win 60% of their games. Imagine if the best team in football went only 10-6 every year…
· I have talked about the importance of getting the number two seed in the playoffs for the Penguins and it comes down to the final weekend. Then Pens and Devils are tied with two games remaining on Saturday and Sunday. The Devils hold the tiebreaker due to their sweep of the Pens during the regular season (would sure have been nice to win just one of those games now wouldn’t it!). The Devils have what should be a sure win against the Islanders on Saturday. The Penguins must win both games this weekend and root for the Sabres to knock off the Devils in the finale Sunday afternoon.
· I am still in shock that the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to their division rival the Washington Redskins. Those that know me know I have long been a Donovan fan. I don't want to get into too much of it here as I plan to write a longer piece regarding the trade in the near future, but the Eagles have all but guaranteed their division rival a spot in the playoffs. Philadelphia has only missed the playoffs twice in Donovan’s 11 seasons, once in his rookie season and once in 2006 when McNabb missed six games. Further, only two active quarterbacks have a higher winning percentage than McNabb and they are none other than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Meanwhile, the Eagles are left with an unproven quarterback in Kevin Kolb. That trade was simply a steal for the Redskins, but more on this in the near future…
· As I post this column, Tiger Woods just wrapped up his second round at the Masters with a 2-under 70 that leaves him (-6) overall for the tournament and tied for 3rd place. No matter what you think of Tiger as a person, or whether you are rooting for or against him this weekend, one thing is for sure: Golf is a whole heck-of-a-lot more interesting with him out there. I, for one, am looking forward to sitting down Sunday and watching Tiger in contention for another Major once again.
· The Pirates are off to a solid start after taking two of three games from the Dodgers, but they have to clean up the defense if they are going to be competitive at all this year. The Pirates have already committed 4 errors in 3 games (only 73 all of last year) and have failed to make other plays that they need to make (Andy LaRoche’s play in the top of the first in the opener sticks out). On top of that, the Dodgers looked to be stealing bases with ease against catcher Ryan Doumit. The Pirates do not have strike out pitchers as we have talked about on here. If they are to have any success this season, playing above average defense is a must.
· We are only five days into the season and yet only one team is still undefeated (San Francisco Giants) and one team is winless (Houston Astros). That is a far cry from the other major sports and makes baseball a funny game that way. The smallest margin of error exits between winning and losing, that is why even the best teams struggle to win 60% of their games. Imagine if the best team in football went only 10-6 every year…
· I have talked about the importance of getting the number two seed in the playoffs for the Penguins and it comes down to the final weekend. Then Pens and Devils are tied with two games remaining on Saturday and Sunday. The Devils hold the tiebreaker due to their sweep of the Pens during the regular season (would sure have been nice to win just one of those games now wouldn’t it!). The Devils have what should be a sure win against the Islanders on Saturday. The Penguins must win both games this weekend and root for the Sabres to knock off the Devils in the finale Sunday afternoon.
· I am still in shock that the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to their division rival the Washington Redskins. Those that know me know I have long been a Donovan fan. I don't want to get into too much of it here as I plan to write a longer piece regarding the trade in the near future, but the Eagles have all but guaranteed their division rival a spot in the playoffs. Philadelphia has only missed the playoffs twice in Donovan’s 11 seasons, once in his rookie season and once in 2006 when McNabb missed six games. Further, only two active quarterbacks have a higher winning percentage than McNabb and they are none other than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Meanwhile, the Eagles are left with an unproven quarterback in Kevin Kolb. That trade was simply a steal for the Redskins, but more on this in the near future…
· As I post this column, Tiger Woods just wrapped up his second round at the Masters with a 2-under 70 that leaves him (-6) overall for the tournament and tied for 3rd place. No matter what you think of Tiger as a person, or whether you are rooting for or against him this weekend, one thing is for sure: Golf is a whole heck-of-a-lot more interesting with him out there. I, for one, am looking forward to sitting down Sunday and watching Tiger in contention for another Major once again.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Vastly Different Expectations for Pens-Pirates
It has been a great week of sports, especially here in Pittsburgh, with the NCAA Final Four, the opening of baseball season, the Pirates home opener, the final few regular season Penguins’ games at Mellon Arena and the start of the Masters featuring the return of Tiger Woods. There’s not much more you can ask for as a sports lover outside of football season. I had the pleasure of attending the Pirates home opener on Monday and the Pens-Caps game at Mellon Arena Tuesday night. Both games were highly enjoyable and featured enthusiastic sold-out crowds, but that is where the similarities end.
The Pirates are fresh off their 17th consecutive losing season and very little is expected of them this year. Walking into the game on Monday there was almost a party-like atmosphere in the crowd. I think this had much more to do with the weather, many people having the day off for the Easter holiday, and the general return of the baseball season (not to mention the copious amounts of alcohol in the parking lots). Walking into the stadium there were still whispers of how bad this team was and how many games they were going to lose. When the Buccos got down in the top of the first inning, there was certainly a “here we go again” buzz throughout the crowd.
This all changed, however, with Garrett Jones’ two run home-run in the bottom of the first. The crowd started to get into the game, cheering the Pirates on after every good play. After all, this is a new season and Pirate fans are entitled to a little hope, right? When Ryan Church’s bases clearing double broke the game open in the bottom of the fifth, the crowd went into a frenzy cheering the Pirates on the rest of the way like it was the World Series. Believe me when I tell you it was fun to cheer on a Pirates’ win before they are eliminated from contention, which usually occurs around Memorial Day. The reaction of the crowd was overwhelming and many of the Pirates players spoke of it after the game. It just goes to show how people would latch on to the Buccos and go crazy again for baseball if this team can ever become competitive. It also goes to show you how excited fans can get when expectations are so low…
Meanwhile, the atmosphere Tuesday night was just the opposite. The feel walking into the Penguins’ game was very business-like. The game was an important one not only in the standings as the Penguins’ fight for the division title and the number two seed, but because it was against their biggest rival the Washington Capitals and Alexander Ovechkin. Penguins’ fans, unlike their cousins the Pirate fans, have grown to expect a whole bunch from their team. The Penguins are the defending Stanley Cup champions and have reached the Finals in back to back years. Penguins’ fans have grown to expect their team to win, especially in big games against big rivals.
Like the Pirates game, the game got off to a lousy start when Washington scored first. Unlike the Pirates, the Penguins were never able to fully bounce back despite a great effort from their leader Sidney Crosby. The crowd became restless when Marc-Andre Fleury gave up a soft goal on the Capitals’ second goal of the night. They became downright mad when another softie went in on Fleury after the Penguins had scored to make a game of it. When Coach Dan Bylsma pulled Fleury for backup Brent Johnson, the crowd actually cheered. This is the same goaltender that was fantastic last year in the playoffs, has won a Stanley Cup, reached another Final and is still only 25 years-old. This is what happens when expectations are raised to an unfair level. The Penguins tried their hardest to battle back but it was not enough on this night, eventually falling to the Capitals 6-3.
As the Pirates wrapped up their series with the Dodgers winning two out of three and the Penguins close their regular season history at Mellon Arena tonight, each will get ready to begin a long journey. The Pirates will continue through their 162 game trek of the MLB season while the Penguins will embark on the grueling grind of another Stanley Cup playoff run as they try to repeat as champions. Each begins their journey with vastly different expectations from their fans. Anything less than another Stanley Cup parade will leave Pens’ fans disappointed. On the baseball side, anything approaching a .500 season would have Pirates fans dancing in the streets. The best thing about being a sports fan is that we simply don’t know whether the Penguins will meet their great expectations or whether the Pirates can outperform their very low ones. What we do know, however, is that we will be there rooting away for our teams while hopefully getting the chance to experience a part of history, for good or for bad.
The Pirates are fresh off their 17th consecutive losing season and very little is expected of them this year. Walking into the game on Monday there was almost a party-like atmosphere in the crowd. I think this had much more to do with the weather, many people having the day off for the Easter holiday, and the general return of the baseball season (not to mention the copious amounts of alcohol in the parking lots). Walking into the stadium there were still whispers of how bad this team was and how many games they were going to lose. When the Buccos got down in the top of the first inning, there was certainly a “here we go again” buzz throughout the crowd.
This all changed, however, with Garrett Jones’ two run home-run in the bottom of the first. The crowd started to get into the game, cheering the Pirates on after every good play. After all, this is a new season and Pirate fans are entitled to a little hope, right? When Ryan Church’s bases clearing double broke the game open in the bottom of the fifth, the crowd went into a frenzy cheering the Pirates on the rest of the way like it was the World Series. Believe me when I tell you it was fun to cheer on a Pirates’ win before they are eliminated from contention, which usually occurs around Memorial Day. The reaction of the crowd was overwhelming and many of the Pirates players spoke of it after the game. It just goes to show how people would latch on to the Buccos and go crazy again for baseball if this team can ever become competitive. It also goes to show you how excited fans can get when expectations are so low…
Meanwhile, the atmosphere Tuesday night was just the opposite. The feel walking into the Penguins’ game was very business-like. The game was an important one not only in the standings as the Penguins’ fight for the division title and the number two seed, but because it was against their biggest rival the Washington Capitals and Alexander Ovechkin. Penguins’ fans, unlike their cousins the Pirate fans, have grown to expect a whole bunch from their team. The Penguins are the defending Stanley Cup champions and have reached the Finals in back to back years. Penguins’ fans have grown to expect their team to win, especially in big games against big rivals.
Like the Pirates game, the game got off to a lousy start when Washington scored first. Unlike the Pirates, the Penguins were never able to fully bounce back despite a great effort from their leader Sidney Crosby. The crowd became restless when Marc-Andre Fleury gave up a soft goal on the Capitals’ second goal of the night. They became downright mad when another softie went in on Fleury after the Penguins had scored to make a game of it. When Coach Dan Bylsma pulled Fleury for backup Brent Johnson, the crowd actually cheered. This is the same goaltender that was fantastic last year in the playoffs, has won a Stanley Cup, reached another Final and is still only 25 years-old. This is what happens when expectations are raised to an unfair level. The Penguins tried their hardest to battle back but it was not enough on this night, eventually falling to the Capitals 6-3.
As the Pirates wrapped up their series with the Dodgers winning two out of three and the Penguins close their regular season history at Mellon Arena tonight, each will get ready to begin a long journey. The Pirates will continue through their 162 game trek of the MLB season while the Penguins will embark on the grueling grind of another Stanley Cup playoff run as they try to repeat as champions. Each begins their journey with vastly different expectations from their fans. Anything less than another Stanley Cup parade will leave Pens’ fans disappointed. On the baseball side, anything approaching a .500 season would have Pirates fans dancing in the streets. The best thing about being a sports fan is that we simply don’t know whether the Penguins will meet their great expectations or whether the Pirates can outperform their very low ones. What we do know, however, is that we will be there rooting away for our teams while hopefully getting the chance to experience a part of history, for good or for bad.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Title Game Prediction
Everyone watched the games Saturday night so there is no need to go with an in-depth analysis. Everyone saw what had to be one of the ugliest Final Four games in history, with Butler failing to make a basket for a ten-minute stretch in the second half…and still beating Michigan State! Everyone then saw Duke dismantle a West Virginia team that had been playing as well as anyone during the tournament. If you had not watched any games all season until the two Final Four games, you would think Duke should easily win tonight in the NCAA Title Game.
Frankly, if you went with that premise I think it would be pretty hard to argue with you. Duke got a big performance from all three of their star players, their role players, and in particular Brian Zoubek, played fantastic, and it was probably the most impressive overall performance we have seen from any team during the tournament. Remember, though, that it was only one game. Leading into their Final Four match-up, everyone had been so impressed with the Mountaineers and their performance against Kentucky. That didn’t help Bob Huggins’ squad against Duke, who shot lights out and when they did miss, there was Zoubek to corral the offensive rebound. So the question begs how does Butler keep this game close, let alone win?
Well, don’t underestimate the Bulldogs. Like I said, that was only one game for the Blue Devils. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler have both had their troubles shooting during the tournament. Maybe those poor stretches are behind them, or maybe they were just hot for one night. Butler plays great defense. They are the number six team in the country in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy, even when adjusting to their weak conference schedule. Further, the Bulldogs have frustrated quality offensive teams in Syracuse, Kansas and Michigan St. on their way to the title game. Butler is also very strong on the defensive glass. They were able to limit Michigan State to only six offensive rebounds in the Final Four game. Offensively, Butler is well-coached, patient and has the ability to run the shot clock with their long sets to shorten the game. When a team plays defense, rebounds and is as well-coached as Butler is, it will never be an easy win.
All that being said, I think Duke wins tonight in a hard-fought, low-scoring game. I am picking Duke for the same reason I have picked them every game in this tournament, they simply have too many weapons for Butler to guard. Once again, Duke has three guys that I trust to put the ball in the hoop more than Butler can. For all the Dukies, it should be a great night as Coach K gets his fourth National Championshp, but don’t expect it to be easy!
Frankly, if you went with that premise I think it would be pretty hard to argue with you. Duke got a big performance from all three of their star players, their role players, and in particular Brian Zoubek, played fantastic, and it was probably the most impressive overall performance we have seen from any team during the tournament. Remember, though, that it was only one game. Leading into their Final Four match-up, everyone had been so impressed with the Mountaineers and their performance against Kentucky. That didn’t help Bob Huggins’ squad against Duke, who shot lights out and when they did miss, there was Zoubek to corral the offensive rebound. So the question begs how does Butler keep this game close, let alone win?
Well, don’t underestimate the Bulldogs. Like I said, that was only one game for the Blue Devils. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler have both had their troubles shooting during the tournament. Maybe those poor stretches are behind them, or maybe they were just hot for one night. Butler plays great defense. They are the number six team in the country in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy, even when adjusting to their weak conference schedule. Further, the Bulldogs have frustrated quality offensive teams in Syracuse, Kansas and Michigan St. on their way to the title game. Butler is also very strong on the defensive glass. They were able to limit Michigan State to only six offensive rebounds in the Final Four game. Offensively, Butler is well-coached, patient and has the ability to run the shot clock with their long sets to shorten the game. When a team plays defense, rebounds and is as well-coached as Butler is, it will never be an easy win.
All that being said, I think Duke wins tonight in a hard-fought, low-scoring game. I am picking Duke for the same reason I have picked them every game in this tournament, they simply have too many weapons for Butler to guard. Once again, Duke has three guys that I trust to put the ball in the hoop more than Butler can. For all the Dukies, it should be a great night as Coach K gets his fourth National Championshp, but don’t expect it to be easy!
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Final Four Preview: Be Careful What You Wish For
When I really started looking at the games this weekend, I realized what a terrible Final Four this really is. The three biggest stars involved in the games are coaches. Paul Zeise did an excellent article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette talking about the lack of NBA talent playing this weekend (you can read it here) so I will not beat a dead horse, but wow is the quality of basketball not going to live up to what we have grown used to in the Final Four. It was great to see Northern Iowa beat Kansas, the unusual number of great games, buzzer beaters and overtimes, but when it gets to the Final Four I think we all want to see the best teams. As the name of this post references, “be careful what you wish for”.
While we are stuck watching the defensive battle between Butler and Michigan State and then the rugged battle between Duke and West Virginia, I will be thinking about how great a Kentucky-Kansas game would have been, or Evan Turner verse John Wall, or Syracuse against Scottie Reynolds and company, etc., etc. etc.
That is to take nothing away from the teams that are here. Each has earned their trip to the Final Four and are more than worthy of their individual berths. Butler knocked off Syracuse and Kansas State, West Virginia beat Kentucky, Duke handled all comers and Michigan State survived despite a season ending injury to their best player. Individually, each team is a great story and deserves their spot in Indianapolis. Collectively, however, I think there is something to be desired. As they say in show business, though, the show must go on! Let us move on to my Final Four picks.
Duke over West Virginia - Duke’s three point shooting will force WVU out of their 1-3-1 zone and into a man-to-man defense, something that they do not play as effectively as the zone. Both teams are battle tested and excellent on the glass, meaning this should be a very physical game. The difference to me will be Duke’s offensive weapons. I trust Duke’s big three, Scheyer, Smith and Singler, to put the ball in the basket more than West Virginia’s big three of Butler, Jones and Ebanks.
Michigan State over Butler – I was really torn trying to pick a winner in this one. As surprising as it is to say, Butler has the two best players on the court in this one with Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack, but Michigan State is the better all-around “team”. Usually when a mid-major and a power conference school get together, these roles are reversed. Butler will also be playing with the crowd behind them in their home city. Michigan State, however, is a veteran team that should not be bothered by the crowd and are led by the best tournament coach in the land right now. That, combined with what I am guessing is a happy to be there attitude for Butler, and I see Michigan State advancing to the title game.
While we are stuck watching the defensive battle between Butler and Michigan State and then the rugged battle between Duke and West Virginia, I will be thinking about how great a Kentucky-Kansas game would have been, or Evan Turner verse John Wall, or Syracuse against Scottie Reynolds and company, etc., etc. etc.
That is to take nothing away from the teams that are here. Each has earned their trip to the Final Four and are more than worthy of their individual berths. Butler knocked off Syracuse and Kansas State, West Virginia beat Kentucky, Duke handled all comers and Michigan State survived despite a season ending injury to their best player. Individually, each team is a great story and deserves their spot in Indianapolis. Collectively, however, I think there is something to be desired. As they say in show business, though, the show must go on! Let us move on to my Final Four picks.
Duke over West Virginia - Duke’s three point shooting will force WVU out of their 1-3-1 zone and into a man-to-man defense, something that they do not play as effectively as the zone. Both teams are battle tested and excellent on the glass, meaning this should be a very physical game. The difference to me will be Duke’s offensive weapons. I trust Duke’s big three, Scheyer, Smith and Singler, to put the ball in the basket more than West Virginia’s big three of Butler, Jones and Ebanks.
Michigan State over Butler – I was really torn trying to pick a winner in this one. As surprising as it is to say, Butler has the two best players on the court in this one with Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack, but Michigan State is the better all-around “team”. Usually when a mid-major and a power conference school get together, these roles are reversed. Butler will also be playing with the crowd behind them in their home city. Michigan State, however, is a veteran team that should not be bothered by the crowd and are led by the best tournament coach in the land right now. That, combined with what I am guessing is a happy to be there attitude for Butler, and I see Michigan State advancing to the title game.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
MLB Preview Chat (Part II)
Thanks everyone for coming back for Part II of our MLB Preview Chat. Today we will discuss our World Series predictions, the major awards in each league and finish it up with some fantasy baseball discussion. To read Part I of the chat, click here.
(Editor’s note: Just like Part I, this was a fast moving dialogue that touched on a ton of subjects. Spare us a few typos or broken English, I tried my best to clean it up.)
(Editor’s note II: The whole conversation is pretty long. Take your time, print it out, read the entire discussion at your leisure. I think hardcore and casual baseball fans will enjoy it alike.)
Me: We were talking about Jason Heyward, and the big shoes he has to fill as a 20-year old rookie, does he win the NL Rookie of the Year?
Curt: Heyward is going to be decent this year. I don't think ROY though.
Tom: He's probably a 1:2 favorite.
Me: Who do you have Curt? Is Pedro Alvarez on your list?
Tom: Strasburg and Aroldis are on the list. Pedro, Jason Heyward too. Maybe the Giants will come to their senses and give Buster Posey a shot. Alcides Escobar (shortstop for the Brewers) I believe still has rookie eligibility as well.
Curt: I would go with Strasburg over Heyward. More prepared to dominate.
Me: Tom is referring to Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban defector that the Reds signed in the offseason that has a reported 100mph fastball. Is this the most excited Reds' fans have been for a player since signing Griffey, Jr. Tom?
Tom: Homer's first start was exciting. And Jay Bruce shredded the Majors for 3 weeks when he came up after being named the #1 minor league prospect by Baseball America the year before. But Aroldis has to be the most exciting signing in some time.
Tom: That team that signed Griffey was a play-in game away from the playoffs and everything fell apart after his contract.
Me: Strasburg may not start until June though in the Majors, will he dominant enough over the final four months to pass Heyward's full year? I think he could, as we have seen it in the past, but the Nats may shut him down at the end of the year as well.
Tom: Strasburg is on the Lincecum plan. Lincecum made 5 minor league starts and was in the Majors the first week of May. I have to think Strasburg is on the same schedule.
Me: I was going to bring up Jay Bruce in the breakout player part, but first let's get a consensus on the National League division picks which I don’t think we did earlier (in Part I of the preview).
Tom: Mark Prior was up in mid-May as well.
Me: Cards, Phils and Braves as wildcard seem like the consensus with a wide open West and 3 different votes. Any hope for the Mets or Marlins?
Tom: As long as the Mets are the Mets, they don't have any hope.
Me: Correction; you two voted for the Rockies out West, I was the lone soldier on the Dodgers. So we have the Cards, Phillies, Rockies and Braves as our consensus playoff teams.
Curt: Mets are going to be terrible.
Tom: The Marlins have some interesting young arms in Josh Johnson and Rickey Nolasco, but they don't have enough behind Hanley I don't think in the lineup.
Curt: Last year they blamed injuries, this year they will find out they are not very good. Fish have a better chance than the Mets, those arms are volatile though, don't trust them to all be good enough at once.
Me: If the Mets are healthy though, can't a line-up with Reyes-Beltran-Wright-Bay-Delgado compete with anybody?
Tom: And yes, I'm on a first name basis with Hanley Ramirez and Aroldis Chapman. That isn't their lineup though. It's Angel Pagan-Luis Castillo-David Wright-Jason Bay-Daniel Murphy-Jeff Francoeur-Rod Barajas-Alex Cora.
Me: It's what they hope is their line-up at some point though isn't it? And I know, their pitching has way too many question marks, but there is talent there.
Tom: Those guys are retreads and bums.
Curt: Who is the number two starter, Maine or Pelfrey I guess.
Tom: Pelfrey then Maine, Ollie and Niese.
Me: Yea, probably not enough there, let's move on.
Me: We discussed NL ROY, Strasburg and Heyward are probably the leading candidates. Give me your MVPs, Cy Youngs, and AL ROY...
Tom: I'll hold off on NL Cy Young because we have yet to draft our fantasy squads. Unless you guys promise not to draft him…
Curt: Chase, Roy in NL
Curt: Javier is in the AL now, you can have Harang obviously.
Me: Haha, sorry folks, insider jokes on fantasy baseball there. We won't draft him, who is your NL Cy Young?
Tom: I'll go with Lincecum and King Felix for the Cy Youngs.
Tom: MVPs are what they should have been the last decade, Pujols and ARod.
Me: I'm going Lincecum and Pujols until they prove otherwise in the NL. Curt, drawing a blank, who's Chase? And I'm going Heyward ROY in the NL.
Tom: AL Roy = Neftali
Curt: Evan Longoria, Felix AL. Chase Utley, they’ll (the voters) want to get him his MVP. Plus the Phillies are going to win a lot.
Me: Oh ok, you put ROY, that's Chase for MVP, got it.
Tom: And if the Indians cut the cord on whoever Lou Marson is, Carlos Santana is in the running for AL ROY.
Me: I also like King Felix (Hernandez) and A-Rod in the AL.
Curt: Roy H. for Cy in the NL.
Me: Neftali? Is he closing?
Tom: He's starting.
Curt: Hard not to like Felix with that park and defense.
Me: Tom is referring to Neftali Feliz, the Rangers young phenom, also with a near 100mph fastball.
Tom: I think he's starting at least, possibly not, however. Scott Sizemore is on my list as well.
Me: Rookie class in the AL is not what it is in the NL. I'll go Scott Sizemore as well, the starting 2B for the Tigers. They did allow Polanco to walk to make room for Sizemore.
Tom: Yes they did. Sizemore would have out-hit Polanco last season.
Curt: Austin Jackson is going to get huge opportunity.
Tom: Yes he is, and we'll find out he stinks.
Curt: I’m not that big on him either, Yank hype.
Tom: When he goes .250/.310/.390, as a 24 year old or however old he is.
Me: Ha, another overhyped Yankee prospect included in the Curtis Granderson deal this offseason. Great deal for the Yanks I thought, btw.
Curt: Ill have confidence Jennings gets up and gets AB's that’s my pick for AL ROY.
Tom: Tough to play a guy that went .183/.245/.239 against LHP last season. You simply cannot play that (referring to Granderson for the Yanks).
Curt: Can't hit LHP at all. You are correct, he cannot be in the lineup against lefties.
Me: Tough to platoon a guy making that kind of cash though.
Curt: The split is awful, he makes it look like Garrett Jones crushes LHP.
Tom: Make AJ Burnett play CF for all I care, he'll hit LHP better than that.
Me: Should they play Gardner in CF is what you guys would propose against lefties?
Curt: Have to do something. If that is who they have then yea for sure.
Tom: They still need somebody to play for Granderson against LHP in left field then.
Curt: I'm not sure if the Yanks realize that.
Tom: Need a LF then, Randy Winn I guess.
Curt: .210/.270/.344 is Granderson’s career split against lefties.
Me: Yea, I think that's what they signed Winn for anyways.
Tom: Randy Winn isn't exactly Josh Willingham against LHP either. But he's better than whatever Granderson can do against lefties.
Me: Ok, Give me your World Series predictions...
Curt: Phil over Yanks, two best teams I think pretty clearly.
Tom: Give me a classic matchup of BoSox over Cards in 6.
Me: I'm going Phillies over Yankees as well. Taking the Phils with Halladay, a true Yankee killer! Halladay is MVP, picking up the Game 7 win. One of the best pitchers of this era will finally get his due.
Me: Ok guys, before we get to your breakout players this year, I wanted to discuss something I heard on the radio last night, especially since we were just discussing Granderson. Who had the better offseason, the Yankees picking up Granderson, Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson or the BoSox with Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and John Lackey (and Marco Scutaro)?
Curt: Scutaro is a really good baseball player. Not sure that gets enough attention. I still think the Yanks though. Javier is really good, and is going to be really good. Granderson gives them an athlete for once. Yanks are the best team. Nick Johnson is going to get on base a ton when he plays. I don't see how the Yanks can lose honestly.
Tom: I actually think the Red Sox did a better job. They aren't playing to win the division. They are playing to win the Wild Card. They have to beat the likes of Detroit, ChiSox, Tampa etc. Once they get to the playoffs, anything can happen. And they've realized that.
Me: I agree with Curt, I think the Nick Johnson signing went widely unnoticed and was a great pick-up for the Yanks. He'll easily fill the Johnny Damon void, they can go with him or Granderson on top of the line-up with Jeter in front of the big boys against righties.
Tom: They can't win in an arms race with the Yankees, and they're not trying to. I don't see how you fault what the Red Sox did in adding the top free-agent pitcher, top 3B and top SS.
Curt: Javier or Lackey?
Tom: Lackey will have a better season than Javier.
Curt: I’ll take Javier for my team, maybe not in the playoffs though.
Tom: The Red Sox have the strangely unheralded Jon Lester as well who I would take over any pitcher not named Sabathia on the Yankees.
Me: The Sox spent more, a lot more, money than the Yanks did this offseason. They are certainly trying to compete in an arms race. Though I agree, they built their team based on pitching and defense, factors that become even more important in the playoffs.
Curt: Granderson can also field center.
Me: I like Lackey better in the AL. Proven commodity, pitched in big playoff games, etc. Javier is no slouch though, especially as the Yanks #4 guy.
Tom: They spent wisely though. They didn't give a pitcher a 10 year contract. They gave Beltre a one year contract and didn't commit 10 years to him either. The sum of their spending was less than the Teixeira deal for the Yankees.
Me: That's a good debate. We could go on all day there. It is probably setting up for another Sox-Yanks October classic I would imagine.
Me: Let's move on, who are some of your breakout performers this year? Both in terms of real life and fantasy....
Tom: Can I say Billy Butler? .300+, 30+ HR.
Me: I really like Jay Bruce to start realizing his potential.
Tom: Jay Bruce has gobs of power, clearly evident from his line last season. That BABIP was an all-time season low.
Curt: He still walks a ton, that’s big.
Me: Is Butler a breakout candidate this year or was he already last year?
Tom: What constitutes a breakout? If a tree falls in the woods and no one heard it...
Me: I think it's put up or shut up time for Lastings Milledge as well, what do you guys think about him? And yea, Butler will probably gain the national exposure he deserves, I agree.
Curt: Looks like James (Bill James, the godfather of statistical analysis) thinks Butler is going to take a step back.
Curt: Not sure Lastings got it like that. I don't see a high batting average, or OBP or power from him. What’s best case scenario for him?
Tom: Lastings best case scenario is 20-20.
Curt: Xavier Nady that can run?
Tom: No way he gets to Nady-peak.
Me: He's a better fielder though, and if he can do 20-20 I think the Pirates would be thrilled. Nady had a great arm, but was a butcher in the outfield. Milledge needs to walk more to be a better than average player I think.
Curt: I am not big on these mediocre power, low OBP guys. Lastings is young though, can get that OBP up hopefully.
Me: Any non-rookie pitchers you see breaking through? Does Francisco Liriano return to form? He has looked great in the spring and supposedly did in winter ball as well.
Tom: Ricky Nolasco. You guys won't be able to draft him early enough in our fantasy draft on Saturday.
Me: I'm a big Nolasco fan. He was awesome in the 2nd half of the year last year after a short stint in the minors.
Tom: Homer Bailey finished the season exceptionally strong for the Reds. He has learned how to pound the strike-zone and trust that his pitches are good enough (which they are).
Curt: Not big on Nolasco myself. Looks like he won't be on my team.
Tom: I also like a big season from Jorge De La Rosa this year as well. The Rockies top of the rotation is as unheralded but as good as anyone's. Jason Hammel is no slouch in Colorado either.
Me: Any love for Liriano? What about Charlie Morton for the Bucs? He has some great stuff, but has some of that Homer Bailey in him where he's afraid to challenge hitters.
Curt: Morton has some Kip Wells in him if you ask me.
Tom: Morton has to prove once that he's willing to just throw the baseball.
Curt: As for Liriano, I don't think he will ever be the same. Baseballs don't move like his did and it looks like his does not anymore either. I would be surprised.
Curt: I would look for a similar path of improvement for Morton. Take out that ten run effort and he was fairly decent last year.
Me: Breakout players are a great transition into some fantasy talk. Let's quickly go through a little fantasy baseball chatter and I will let you guys get out of here. I have probably kept you long enough already...
Me: Give me your top 10 in a standard 5x5 league.
Tom: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Mark Teixeira.
Me: Mine would go Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, Chase Utley, Braun, Miggy Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Teixeira, Carl Crawford, and David Wright.
Tom: I don't subscribe to the idea of selecting a pitcher in the top rounds. They are simply too volatile.
Curt: Pujols, Hanley, Braun, AROD, Chase, Prince, Mauer, Tex, Longoria, Miggy.
Me: I know I'm not as high on Mauer as you guys. There is no way he replicates his power from last season, plus a more realistic BA is going to be around .330, which is fantastic obviously, but doesn't make him a first rounder for me.
Curt: Need to find this year’s Zack Greinke, guy who is good but breaks out.
Tom: In standard two-catcher leagues, Mauer is simply too much better than everyone else to not have in the first round.
Me: Either of you take Lincecum in the first round?
Curt: Mauer is a career .327 hitter. I would take his career average year no problem. I would not on Lincecum, just out of principle. It is not that it is a terrible strategy, just not what I would do.
Me: I'm not big on pitchers early as well. The key, like Curt said, is to find the Greinke and Vazquez of the draft in later rounds.
Curt: How would you feel about getting Wright around the 20th pick? That is going to look real dumb by like April 15th, him going that late.
Me: I agree, Wright is going to have a big year.
Tom: I'd be okay with Wright that late, but I'm not going to target him. 3B is deep with relatively off-the-radar players like Ryan Zimmerman and Pablo Sandoval.
Me: And in a two catcher league, maybe Mauer is a first round pick. In a one catcher league, I'm not sure Mauer's career average season is even a top 30 pick IMO.
Me: Zimmerman is a good under-the-radar player. I'm not sure Sandoval is, however, everyone loves Kung Fu Panda.
Curt: Third base is pretty loaded no doubt there. It helps a lot to get a bat at a scarce position early on.
Me: I know our big draft is Saturday, but we know how each other think already. Can you guys share some of your sleepers and busts for the year? (Hopefully nobody else in our league reads this until after the draft!)
Tom: Lance Berkman = Bust
Curt: Carroll (baseball expert and injury guru Will Carroll) is not bullish on him I don't believe.
Tom: If people draft J.A. Happ expecting last season they will be upset. Same with Kevin Millwood, Randy Wells and Jair Jurrjens.
Curt: Guys I don't like that I think were lucky last year include Joel Pineiro.
Me: I like Jose Reyes and Josh Hamilton as superstar players that are going too late based on injury.
Me: Depending on Cliff Lee's health, he could be a real bargain. Look what Jarrod freakin' Washburn did in Seattle last year with that park and defense.
Tom: I think we can expect somewhere between Hamilton's two seasons in Texas.
Curt: Jurrjens has done it two years in a row though, right? I think he’s lucky as well, and will go before I would consider drafting him. Same with Dempster, I don't buy it no matter what.
Tom: Ross Ohlendorf will not have an ERA below 4.00 this season.
Me: Pitchers' performance always seems to be much more volatile, any hitters you see besides Berkman being busts? Carlos Quentin killed many teams last year.
Curt: For bats it’s easier to predict who will bounce back than who will bust, BJ Upton for instance.
Me: I'm not high on Jason Bay in that park.
Tom: Nope, I'm not high on any Mets. They need to get that stench washed off from the last two seasons for me to consider it.
Tom: Assuming Derek Jeter doesn't hit .400 against LHP, he'll come back down to earth.
Curt: Beltran has an average draft position (“ADP”) of 127.
Me: No way Johnny Damon performs again like last year.
Curt: I like Granderson in that park coming from Detroit.
Me: Ok, let's wrap it up. Give me your one bold prediction for the year, player or team.
Tom: Yankees miss the playoffs, and the fans tear down that baseball mausoleum!
Curt: Ha. Ben Sheets will be decent, no one will remember that ten spot ($10 million contract with Oakland).
Tom: Locally, how about the Pirates OF goes 60-60.
Curt: People will hopefully realize how all the good young players are in the NL.
Me: I have two; I think Albert Pujols hits 50 HRs for the first time in his career. (Amazing, I know.) Second, the Pirates finish .500. (I'm going to say it every season for now on until they do it, that way I'm on record for saying it!)
Me: Guys, that's it. Thank you so much for joining me. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I have and I hope the readers do as well. Let's do it again periodically though the season....
(Editor’s note: Just like Part I, this was a fast moving dialogue that touched on a ton of subjects. Spare us a few typos or broken English, I tried my best to clean it up.)
(Editor’s note II: The whole conversation is pretty long. Take your time, print it out, read the entire discussion at your leisure. I think hardcore and casual baseball fans will enjoy it alike.)
Me: We were talking about Jason Heyward, and the big shoes he has to fill as a 20-year old rookie, does he win the NL Rookie of the Year?
Curt: Heyward is going to be decent this year. I don't think ROY though.
Tom: He's probably a 1:2 favorite.
Me: Who do you have Curt? Is Pedro Alvarez on your list?
Tom: Strasburg and Aroldis are on the list. Pedro, Jason Heyward too. Maybe the Giants will come to their senses and give Buster Posey a shot. Alcides Escobar (shortstop for the Brewers) I believe still has rookie eligibility as well.
Curt: I would go with Strasburg over Heyward. More prepared to dominate.
Me: Tom is referring to Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban defector that the Reds signed in the offseason that has a reported 100mph fastball. Is this the most excited Reds' fans have been for a player since signing Griffey, Jr. Tom?
Tom: Homer's first start was exciting. And Jay Bruce shredded the Majors for 3 weeks when he came up after being named the #1 minor league prospect by Baseball America the year before. But Aroldis has to be the most exciting signing in some time.
Tom: That team that signed Griffey was a play-in game away from the playoffs and everything fell apart after his contract.
Me: Strasburg may not start until June though in the Majors, will he dominant enough over the final four months to pass Heyward's full year? I think he could, as we have seen it in the past, but the Nats may shut him down at the end of the year as well.
Tom: Strasburg is on the Lincecum plan. Lincecum made 5 minor league starts and was in the Majors the first week of May. I have to think Strasburg is on the same schedule.
Me: I was going to bring up Jay Bruce in the breakout player part, but first let's get a consensus on the National League division picks which I don’t think we did earlier (in Part I of the preview).
Tom: Mark Prior was up in mid-May as well.
Me: Cards, Phils and Braves as wildcard seem like the consensus with a wide open West and 3 different votes. Any hope for the Mets or Marlins?
Tom: As long as the Mets are the Mets, they don't have any hope.
Me: Correction; you two voted for the Rockies out West, I was the lone soldier on the Dodgers. So we have the Cards, Phillies, Rockies and Braves as our consensus playoff teams.
Curt: Mets are going to be terrible.
Tom: The Marlins have some interesting young arms in Josh Johnson and Rickey Nolasco, but they don't have enough behind Hanley I don't think in the lineup.
Curt: Last year they blamed injuries, this year they will find out they are not very good. Fish have a better chance than the Mets, those arms are volatile though, don't trust them to all be good enough at once.
Me: If the Mets are healthy though, can't a line-up with Reyes-Beltran-Wright-Bay-Delgado compete with anybody?
Tom: And yes, I'm on a first name basis with Hanley Ramirez and Aroldis Chapman. That isn't their lineup though. It's Angel Pagan-Luis Castillo-David Wright-Jason Bay-Daniel Murphy-Jeff Francoeur-Rod Barajas-Alex Cora.
Me: It's what they hope is their line-up at some point though isn't it? And I know, their pitching has way too many question marks, but there is talent there.
Tom: Those guys are retreads and bums.
Curt: Who is the number two starter, Maine or Pelfrey I guess.
Tom: Pelfrey then Maine, Ollie and Niese.
Me: Yea, probably not enough there, let's move on.
Me: We discussed NL ROY, Strasburg and Heyward are probably the leading candidates. Give me your MVPs, Cy Youngs, and AL ROY...
Tom: I'll hold off on NL Cy Young because we have yet to draft our fantasy squads. Unless you guys promise not to draft him…
Curt: Chase, Roy in NL
Curt: Javier is in the AL now, you can have Harang obviously.
Me: Haha, sorry folks, insider jokes on fantasy baseball there. We won't draft him, who is your NL Cy Young?
Tom: I'll go with Lincecum and King Felix for the Cy Youngs.
Tom: MVPs are what they should have been the last decade, Pujols and ARod.
Me: I'm going Lincecum and Pujols until they prove otherwise in the NL. Curt, drawing a blank, who's Chase? And I'm going Heyward ROY in the NL.
Tom: AL Roy = Neftali
Curt: Evan Longoria, Felix AL. Chase Utley, they’ll (the voters) want to get him his MVP. Plus the Phillies are going to win a lot.
Me: Oh ok, you put ROY, that's Chase for MVP, got it.
Tom: And if the Indians cut the cord on whoever Lou Marson is, Carlos Santana is in the running for AL ROY.
Me: I also like King Felix (Hernandez) and A-Rod in the AL.
Curt: Roy H. for Cy in the NL.
Me: Neftali? Is he closing?
Tom: He's starting.
Curt: Hard not to like Felix with that park and defense.
Me: Tom is referring to Neftali Feliz, the Rangers young phenom, also with a near 100mph fastball.
Tom: I think he's starting at least, possibly not, however. Scott Sizemore is on my list as well.
Me: Rookie class in the AL is not what it is in the NL. I'll go Scott Sizemore as well, the starting 2B for the Tigers. They did allow Polanco to walk to make room for Sizemore.
Tom: Yes they did. Sizemore would have out-hit Polanco last season.
Curt: Austin Jackson is going to get huge opportunity.
Tom: Yes he is, and we'll find out he stinks.
Curt: I’m not that big on him either, Yank hype.
Tom: When he goes .250/.310/.390, as a 24 year old or however old he is.
Me: Ha, another overhyped Yankee prospect included in the Curtis Granderson deal this offseason. Great deal for the Yanks I thought, btw.
Curt: Ill have confidence Jennings gets up and gets AB's that’s my pick for AL ROY.
Tom: Tough to play a guy that went .183/.245/.239 against LHP last season. You simply cannot play that (referring to Granderson for the Yanks).
Curt: Can't hit LHP at all. You are correct, he cannot be in the lineup against lefties.
Me: Tough to platoon a guy making that kind of cash though.
Curt: The split is awful, he makes it look like Garrett Jones crushes LHP.
Tom: Make AJ Burnett play CF for all I care, he'll hit LHP better than that.
Me: Should they play Gardner in CF is what you guys would propose against lefties?
Curt: Have to do something. If that is who they have then yea for sure.
Tom: They still need somebody to play for Granderson against LHP in left field then.
Curt: I'm not sure if the Yanks realize that.
Tom: Need a LF then, Randy Winn I guess.
Curt: .210/.270/.344 is Granderson’s career split against lefties.
Me: Yea, I think that's what they signed Winn for anyways.
Tom: Randy Winn isn't exactly Josh Willingham against LHP either. But he's better than whatever Granderson can do against lefties.
Me: Ok, Give me your World Series predictions...
Curt: Phil over Yanks, two best teams I think pretty clearly.
Tom: Give me a classic matchup of BoSox over Cards in 6.
Me: I'm going Phillies over Yankees as well. Taking the Phils with Halladay, a true Yankee killer! Halladay is MVP, picking up the Game 7 win. One of the best pitchers of this era will finally get his due.
Me: Ok guys, before we get to your breakout players this year, I wanted to discuss something I heard on the radio last night, especially since we were just discussing Granderson. Who had the better offseason, the Yankees picking up Granderson, Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson or the BoSox with Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and John Lackey (and Marco Scutaro)?
Curt: Scutaro is a really good baseball player. Not sure that gets enough attention. I still think the Yanks though. Javier is really good, and is going to be really good. Granderson gives them an athlete for once. Yanks are the best team. Nick Johnson is going to get on base a ton when he plays. I don't see how the Yanks can lose honestly.
Tom: I actually think the Red Sox did a better job. They aren't playing to win the division. They are playing to win the Wild Card. They have to beat the likes of Detroit, ChiSox, Tampa etc. Once they get to the playoffs, anything can happen. And they've realized that.
Me: I agree with Curt, I think the Nick Johnson signing went widely unnoticed and was a great pick-up for the Yanks. He'll easily fill the Johnny Damon void, they can go with him or Granderson on top of the line-up with Jeter in front of the big boys against righties.
Tom: They can't win in an arms race with the Yankees, and they're not trying to. I don't see how you fault what the Red Sox did in adding the top free-agent pitcher, top 3B and top SS.
Curt: Javier or Lackey?
Tom: Lackey will have a better season than Javier.
Curt: I’ll take Javier for my team, maybe not in the playoffs though.
Tom: The Red Sox have the strangely unheralded Jon Lester as well who I would take over any pitcher not named Sabathia on the Yankees.
Me: The Sox spent more, a lot more, money than the Yanks did this offseason. They are certainly trying to compete in an arms race. Though I agree, they built their team based on pitching and defense, factors that become even more important in the playoffs.
Curt: Granderson can also field center.
Me: I like Lackey better in the AL. Proven commodity, pitched in big playoff games, etc. Javier is no slouch though, especially as the Yanks #4 guy.
Tom: They spent wisely though. They didn't give a pitcher a 10 year contract. They gave Beltre a one year contract and didn't commit 10 years to him either. The sum of their spending was less than the Teixeira deal for the Yankees.
Me: That's a good debate. We could go on all day there. It is probably setting up for another Sox-Yanks October classic I would imagine.
Me: Let's move on, who are some of your breakout performers this year? Both in terms of real life and fantasy....
Tom: Can I say Billy Butler? .300+, 30+ HR.
Me: I really like Jay Bruce to start realizing his potential.
Tom: Jay Bruce has gobs of power, clearly evident from his line last season. That BABIP was an all-time season low.
Curt: He still walks a ton, that’s big.
Me: Is Butler a breakout candidate this year or was he already last year?
Tom: What constitutes a breakout? If a tree falls in the woods and no one heard it...
Me: I think it's put up or shut up time for Lastings Milledge as well, what do you guys think about him? And yea, Butler will probably gain the national exposure he deserves, I agree.
Curt: Looks like James (Bill James, the godfather of statistical analysis) thinks Butler is going to take a step back.
Curt: Not sure Lastings got it like that. I don't see a high batting average, or OBP or power from him. What’s best case scenario for him?
Tom: Lastings best case scenario is 20-20.
Curt: Xavier Nady that can run?
Tom: No way he gets to Nady-peak.
Me: He's a better fielder though, and if he can do 20-20 I think the Pirates would be thrilled. Nady had a great arm, but was a butcher in the outfield. Milledge needs to walk more to be a better than average player I think.
Curt: I am not big on these mediocre power, low OBP guys. Lastings is young though, can get that OBP up hopefully.
Me: Any non-rookie pitchers you see breaking through? Does Francisco Liriano return to form? He has looked great in the spring and supposedly did in winter ball as well.
Tom: Ricky Nolasco. You guys won't be able to draft him early enough in our fantasy draft on Saturday.
Me: I'm a big Nolasco fan. He was awesome in the 2nd half of the year last year after a short stint in the minors.
Tom: Homer Bailey finished the season exceptionally strong for the Reds. He has learned how to pound the strike-zone and trust that his pitches are good enough (which they are).
Curt: Not big on Nolasco myself. Looks like he won't be on my team.
Tom: I also like a big season from Jorge De La Rosa this year as well. The Rockies top of the rotation is as unheralded but as good as anyone's. Jason Hammel is no slouch in Colorado either.
Me: Any love for Liriano? What about Charlie Morton for the Bucs? He has some great stuff, but has some of that Homer Bailey in him where he's afraid to challenge hitters.
Curt: Morton has some Kip Wells in him if you ask me.
Tom: Morton has to prove once that he's willing to just throw the baseball.
Curt: As for Liriano, I don't think he will ever be the same. Baseballs don't move like his did and it looks like his does not anymore either. I would be surprised.
Curt: I would look for a similar path of improvement for Morton. Take out that ten run effort and he was fairly decent last year.
Me: Breakout players are a great transition into some fantasy talk. Let's quickly go through a little fantasy baseball chatter and I will let you guys get out of here. I have probably kept you long enough already...
Me: Give me your top 10 in a standard 5x5 league.
Tom: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Mark Teixeira.
Me: Mine would go Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, Chase Utley, Braun, Miggy Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Teixeira, Carl Crawford, and David Wright.
Tom: I don't subscribe to the idea of selecting a pitcher in the top rounds. They are simply too volatile.
Curt: Pujols, Hanley, Braun, AROD, Chase, Prince, Mauer, Tex, Longoria, Miggy.
Me: I know I'm not as high on Mauer as you guys. There is no way he replicates his power from last season, plus a more realistic BA is going to be around .330, which is fantastic obviously, but doesn't make him a first rounder for me.
Curt: Need to find this year’s Zack Greinke, guy who is good but breaks out.
Tom: In standard two-catcher leagues, Mauer is simply too much better than everyone else to not have in the first round.
Me: Either of you take Lincecum in the first round?
Curt: Mauer is a career .327 hitter. I would take his career average year no problem. I would not on Lincecum, just out of principle. It is not that it is a terrible strategy, just not what I would do.
Me: I'm not big on pitchers early as well. The key, like Curt said, is to find the Greinke and Vazquez of the draft in later rounds.
Curt: How would you feel about getting Wright around the 20th pick? That is going to look real dumb by like April 15th, him going that late.
Me: I agree, Wright is going to have a big year.
Tom: I'd be okay with Wright that late, but I'm not going to target him. 3B is deep with relatively off-the-radar players like Ryan Zimmerman and Pablo Sandoval.
Me: And in a two catcher league, maybe Mauer is a first round pick. In a one catcher league, I'm not sure Mauer's career average season is even a top 30 pick IMO.
Me: Zimmerman is a good under-the-radar player. I'm not sure Sandoval is, however, everyone loves Kung Fu Panda.
Curt: Third base is pretty loaded no doubt there. It helps a lot to get a bat at a scarce position early on.
Me: I know our big draft is Saturday, but we know how each other think already. Can you guys share some of your sleepers and busts for the year? (Hopefully nobody else in our league reads this until after the draft!)
Tom: Lance Berkman = Bust
Curt: Carroll (baseball expert and injury guru Will Carroll) is not bullish on him I don't believe.
Tom: If people draft J.A. Happ expecting last season they will be upset. Same with Kevin Millwood, Randy Wells and Jair Jurrjens.
Curt: Guys I don't like that I think were lucky last year include Joel Pineiro.
Me: I like Jose Reyes and Josh Hamilton as superstar players that are going too late based on injury.
Me: Depending on Cliff Lee's health, he could be a real bargain. Look what Jarrod freakin' Washburn did in Seattle last year with that park and defense.
Tom: I think we can expect somewhere between Hamilton's two seasons in Texas.
Curt: Jurrjens has done it two years in a row though, right? I think he’s lucky as well, and will go before I would consider drafting him. Same with Dempster, I don't buy it no matter what.
Tom: Ross Ohlendorf will not have an ERA below 4.00 this season.
Me: Pitchers' performance always seems to be much more volatile, any hitters you see besides Berkman being busts? Carlos Quentin killed many teams last year.
Curt: For bats it’s easier to predict who will bounce back than who will bust, BJ Upton for instance.
Me: I'm not high on Jason Bay in that park.
Tom: Nope, I'm not high on any Mets. They need to get that stench washed off from the last two seasons for me to consider it.
Tom: Assuming Derek Jeter doesn't hit .400 against LHP, he'll come back down to earth.
Curt: Beltran has an average draft position (“ADP”) of 127.
Me: No way Johnny Damon performs again like last year.
Curt: I like Granderson in that park coming from Detroit.
Me: Ok, let's wrap it up. Give me your one bold prediction for the year, player or team.
Tom: Yankees miss the playoffs, and the fans tear down that baseball mausoleum!
Curt: Ha. Ben Sheets will be decent, no one will remember that ten spot ($10 million contract with Oakland).
Tom: Locally, how about the Pirates OF goes 60-60.
Curt: People will hopefully realize how all the good young players are in the NL.
Me: I have two; I think Albert Pujols hits 50 HRs for the first time in his career. (Amazing, I know.) Second, the Pirates finish .500. (I'm going to say it every season for now on until they do it, that way I'm on record for saying it!)
Me: Guys, that's it. Thank you so much for joining me. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I have and I hope the readers do as well. Let's do it again periodically though the season....
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