Saturday, April 3, 2010

Final Four Preview: Be Careful What You Wish For

When I really started looking at the games this weekend, I realized what a terrible Final Four this really is. The three biggest stars involved in the games are coaches. Paul Zeise did an excellent article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette talking about the lack of NBA talent playing this weekend (you can read it here) so I will not beat a dead horse, but wow is the quality of basketball not going to live up to what we have grown used to in the Final Four. It was great to see Northern Iowa beat Kansas, the unusual number of great games, buzzer beaters and overtimes, but when it gets to the Final Four I think we all want to see the best teams. As the name of this post references, “be careful what you wish for”.

While we are stuck watching the defensive battle between Butler and Michigan State and then the rugged battle between Duke and West Virginia, I will be thinking about how great a Kentucky-Kansas game would have been, or Evan Turner verse John Wall, or Syracuse against Scottie Reynolds and company, etc., etc. etc.

That is to take nothing away from the teams that are here. Each has earned their trip to the Final Four and are more than worthy of their individual berths. Butler knocked off Syracuse and Kansas State, West Virginia beat Kentucky, Duke handled all comers and Michigan State survived despite a season ending injury to their best player. Individually, each team is a great story and deserves their spot in Indianapolis. Collectively, however, I think there is something to be desired. As they say in show business, though, the show must go on! Let us move on to my Final Four picks.

Duke over West Virginia - Duke’s three point shooting will force WVU out of their 1-3-1 zone and into a man-to-man defense, something that they do not play as effectively as the zone. Both teams are battle tested and excellent on the glass, meaning this should be a very physical game. The difference to me will be Duke’s offensive weapons. I trust Duke’s big three, Scheyer, Smith and Singler, to put the ball in the basket more than West Virginia’s big three of Butler, Jones and Ebanks.

Michigan State over Butler – I was really torn trying to pick a winner in this one. As surprising as it is to say, Butler has the two best players on the court in this one with Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack, but Michigan State is the better all-around “team”. Usually when a mid-major and a power conference school get together, these roles are reversed. Butler will also be playing with the crowd behind them in their home city. Michigan State, however, is a veteran team that should not be bothered by the crowd and are led by the best tournament coach in the land right now. That, combined with what I am guessing is a happy to be there attitude for Butler, and I see Michigan State advancing to the title game.

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