Title Game Prediction

Everyone watched the games Saturday night so there is no need to go with an in-depth analysis. Everyone saw what had to be one of the ugliest Final Four games in history, with Butler failing to make a basket for a ten-minute stretch in the second half…and still beating Michigan State! Everyone then saw Duke dismantle a West Virginia team that had been playing as well as anyone during the tournament. If you had not watched any games all season until the two Final Four games, you would think Duke should easily win tonight in the NCAA Title Game.

Frankly, if you went with that premise I think it would be pretty hard to argue with you. Duke got a big performance from all three of their star players, their role players, and in particular Brian Zoubek, played fantastic, and it was probably the most impressive overall performance we have seen from any team during the tournament. Remember, though, that it was only one game. Leading into their Final Four match-up, everyone had been so impressed with the Mountaineers and their performance against Kentucky. That didn’t help Bob Huggins’ squad against Duke, who shot lights out and when they did miss, there was Zoubek to corral the offensive rebound. So the question begs how does Butler keep this game close, let alone win?

Well, don’t underestimate the Bulldogs. Like I said, that was only one game for the Blue Devils. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler have both had their troubles shooting during the tournament. Maybe those poor stretches are behind them, or maybe they were just hot for one night. Butler plays great defense. They are the number six team in the country in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy, even when adjusting to their weak conference schedule. Further, the Bulldogs have frustrated quality offensive teams in Syracuse, Kansas and Michigan St. on their way to the title game. Butler is also very strong on the defensive glass. They were able to limit Michigan State to only six offensive rebounds in the Final Four game. Offensively, Butler is well-coached, patient and has the ability to run the shot clock with their long sets to shorten the game. When a team plays defense, rebounds and is as well-coached as Butler is, it will never be an easy win.

All that being said, I think Duke wins tonight in a hard-fought, low-scoring game. I am picking Duke for the same reason I have picked them every game in this tournament, they simply have too many weapons for Butler to guard. Once again, Duke has three guys that I trust to put the ball in the hoop more than Butler can. For all the Dukies, it should be a great night as Coach K gets his fourth National Championshp, but don’t expect it to be easy!