Showing posts with label Kansas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kansas. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Tournament Talk

Yesterday I wrote about Pitt’s disappointing loss so today we will try to eliminate their string of disappointing tournament runs from our thoughts and instead focus on the rest of this past weekend and look ahead to the rest of the tournament.

- I thought at the outset of the tournament that Ohio State at its best was better than any other team in the country and their play over the first weekend of the tournament did nothing to disprove that notion. Their lack of depth continues to be somewhat of a concern but the Buckeyes certainly proved why they were the #1 overall seed entering the tournament.

- Despite how great Ohio State looked, however, it is hard not to make Kansas the favorite at this point. That is not because of how great the Jayhawks looked, even though they did play well, it is because of the potential paths each team has to a championship game. Ohio State could very well see Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke just to make it to the title game while Kansas will face Richmond, the winner of VCU-Florida State and the survivor of the watered down Southeast region. No comparison there about which team has the easier path. I would be lying if I didn’t say I feel pretty good about my National Champion selection of Kansas.

- The other remaining number one seed got a surprising boost when freshman Kyrie Irving suited up for the first time in three months. Irving didn’t have his same explosiveness that we first saw at the beginning of the season but that should be expected coming back from such a long layoff. I am very interested to see how Irving looks this weekend with a couple of games and another week of practice under his belt. A healthy Irving puts Duke right there with Ohio State and Kansas as the prohibitive favorites to cut down the nets.

- All in all the officials do a great job in what is a thankless and almost impossible position to be in. One call that needs to be changed however - and this is not the officials fault as they call the rule as it is written - is the charging violation. Right now it is way, way too easy for a help defender to slide underneath an offensive player going to the hoop. The way the rule is currently being called puts an impossible judgment call on the official to make, it puts the offensive player in danger of getting hurt, and ultimately it makes for some ugly basketball. The first thing the NCAA needs to do is put in the semi-circle like the NBA has to stop charges from occurring underneath the basket and to make the call easier on the official. The second thing that needs to happen is that when a call is in doubt, it should be called a blocking violation. This will stop rewarding defensive players from trying to take so many charges and open the game back up. The game of basketball is a much more appealing and free-moving game to watch when bodies aren't flying all over the place underneath the basket for most of the game.

- Four double digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and a fifth sleeper as defined by our rules last week, Butler, has also joined the party. We knew it was a down year in terms of top talent around the NCAA, but for nearly a third of the final sixteen teams to be an eight seed or above is pretty remarkable. It could also mean that we are in for some ugly basketball on Thursday and Friday night.

- The game I am probably looking forward to most is San Diego State versus Connecticut. It should be fun to see if Kemba Walker can continue leading the Huskies on their incredible tournament run while the Aztecs have plenty of size and athletes to match-up. I am sticking with my pre-tournament pick of Connecticut in this one but it wouldn’t surprise me if Steve Fisher’s boys find a way to get it done.

- Six of my original Elite Eight teams remain and three of my four Final Four teams remain. (I promised I wouldn’t mention that fourth team!) I am sticking by all of my original selections with the revised predictions of Florida beating Wisconsin in the Southeast region to be our fourth Final Four team and Florida State knocking off cinderella VCU in the battle of sleeper supremacy.

- I am looking forward to another great weekend of basketball in what truly is the best month of the year on the sports calendar!

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Bracket Thoughts

- For those of you that are not long-time readers you probably don’t know that Selection Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year. To check out the piece I wrote about Selection Sunday last year, click here.

- Pitt fans should be thrilled with the Panthers draw. I commented to my brother on Sunday that I do not think Pitt could have received a better region if they had picked it out themselves.

- I have read or heard others who do not think Pitt’s draw is as good as I believe because of their potential second round (I guess it is now called the third round but nobody is speaking in those terms yet) match-up with Old Dominion or Butler and a possible Sweet 16 opponent of Kansas State. Listen…if you are a number one seed and you are worried about a 2nd round game against a non-power conference team and the team you think offers the most potential problems in your region is the #5 seed, you got a damn good draw.

- I would agree that Duke has the second easiest region among the four number one seeds (many of the TV experts think Duke has the easiest). That leads me to the question of what the heck is the committee doing? Ohio State and Kansas are clearly the #1 and #2 overall seeds in the tournament and were named rightly so. How can the committee justify having their regions being the most difficult? I know this is a matter of perception but still, it is pretty clear to even the least knowledgeable college basketball fan that Kansas and Ohio State were not rewarded properly for their overall seeds.

- I guess the actual reason is not the committee’s fault. This whole idea of putting the top seeds in their “pods” and then placing them in the respective regions to keep them close to their fan bases is ridiculous. Line the teams up 1-68 and seed the tournament accordingly.

- Another pet-peeve of mine that has developed is listening to these “experts” calling teams such as Purdue, Louisville and Syracuse a “sleeper”. We need to make some kind of universal ground rules up for what a sleeper is. My suggestion is two-part:


(1) If we are talking about the ability to win the national championship, no team that is a top four seed in its region can be considered a sleeper. If you are ranked in the top 15 or 16 in the country you have a legitimate shot to win six straight games and cut down the nets.

(2) If we are talking about true sleepers, as in a team that people would be at least a little bit surprised if they made the Sweet 16 or better, then a team must be seeded 7th or higher in its region to be considered. No one would be surprised if #6 seeds like Georgetown or Cincinnati make a little run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. They are not sleepers.

- Speaking of Georgetown, if it is true that Chris Wright is expected back I see a legitimate scenario where the Big East has seven or eight Sweet 16 teams and possibly three of the Final Four teams. Even with that kind of depth, however, I still don’t see a Big East team winning the National Championship. My money today would be on Duke, Ohio State or Kansas…and I am leaning towards Duke after seeing each team’s respective brackets.

- I will make my official picks Thursday morning. We have to see who wins these horrible, nobody really cares about them, play-in games before we make our official predictions right?!? But since you’re reading this today, I’ll take Clemson, USC, UNC-Asheville and UT-San Antonio in the play-in games.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

National Title Contenders

Late last week I was halfway paying attention to a college basketball post-game show on ESPNU when they started going over the qualifications, for lack of a better word, needed for a team to win the national championship. Among their qualifications; the team had to have a scoring margin greater than ten points, have at least a 10-game winning streak at some point during the season and finally they must have been ranked in the top 10 to begin the season. Those qualifications narrowed the list of title contenders for this year to Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh and Purdue.

The hosts of the show said that the last four national champions all fit these criteria. While the sample size associated with these qualifications is pretty much meaningless, it did get me to thinking about which teams are legitimate national title contenders. Taking a quick look at this week’s rankings, I see seven teams with legitimate national title aspirations, another three or four teams that have an outside shot, and with no disrespect to BYU and San Diego State, a few teams that have no shot despite their lofty ranking.

Let’s take a quick look at the teams with legitimate national title hopes and rank them on a 1-10 scale for their likelihood of actually cutting down the nets come the first Monday in April. For comparisons sake on our 1-10 scale, a 1 can be compared to the 1997 Arizona team led by Mike Bibby and Miles Simon (yes, I just wanted to get people reminiscing on that team), the most surprising of the last 15 or so national champions and 10 being 2007 Florida, the most favored champion in recent history entering the tournament.

Ohio State – Anyone who saw Ohio St. dismantle Wisconsin on Sunday saw what was probably the most complete and well-played game that any team has played all season. The Buckeyes have a star in Jared Sullinger on the block, solid shooters around him, a very solid backcourt and experience with David Lighty, William Buford and Jon Diebler; pretty much all of the ingredients needed to win a national title. Ohio State’s one flaw is their lack of depth as they basically play only six guys, meaning Sullinger must stay out of foul trouble and the Buckeyes can’t afford an injury along the way. No team in college basketball is as good or as complete as that 2007 Florida team, but the Buckeyes at their best are the best team in college basketball this season. National Title Ranking: 8.

Kansas – If there is a team out there who can challenge Ohio State at its best it’s the Jayhawks. Kansas has it all; size, speed, shooting, inside scoring, depth, coaching. In my opinion, Kansas has the most well-rounded roster in college basketball in terms of team dynamics. The star power is also there with the Morris twins and freshman Josh Selby to make Kansas my co-favorite to win it all. The one question I continue to have with Kansas is their toughness underneath and on defense. National Title Ranking: 8.

Duke – Can’t help but wonder how good this Duke team would be with injured freshman point guard Kyrie Irving but at this point it is probably safe to assume that the super frosh won’t be back. Still, the Blue Devils are plenty capable of making a national title run with plenty of big game experience and two stars in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler leading the way. The stars do need more help from the Plumlee brothers and Andre Dawkins among others, but with the right draw and continued excellence from Smith and Singler, you have to give this team just as good a chance at the outset of the tournament as the team that won the national championship last year. National Title Ranking: 6.

North Carolina – Pretty hard to believe that the Tar Heels are this high on the list after a very rough start to the season but North Carolina has played as well as any team in America over the past month or so. UNC’s ascension began with the insertion of Kendall Marshall at the point guard position and watching the kid play it is no wonder. Marshall allows Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller and the rest of the Hells to play within their comfort zones with his incredible passing and fantastic game management skills. In a normal year, this is probably only a fringe national title contender but in an overall down season, the Tar Heels have as good as shot any team outside of Columbus, OH or Lawrence, KS. National Title Ranking: 6.

Pittsburgh – Pitt is every bit as talented as the two teams I rank above them on this list but until the Panthers get over their post-season hump I just can’t put them on equal terms with Duke and North Carolina. I think the key for the Panthers is Brad Wannamaker’s penetrating ability. The Panthers need Wannamaker to create easy scoring opportunities on the inside and open looks on the outside for Ashton Gibbs to be a dynamic offensive team. Without Wannamaker creating these easy scoring opportunities, the Panthers are too reliant on their offensive rebounding and physicality, something that could haunt them if they run into the wrong officiating crew in the tourney. Anything less than a Final Four run, however, would be a disappointment for this team. National Title Ranking: 5.

Purdue – No team in the country has an inside-outside duo like the Boilermakers do with JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. The qualifications listed at the beginning of this column also represent that this team’s resume is much better than many may have anticipated. The question for Purdue is if it has enough around its two dynamic players to really make a splash. National Title Ranking: 3.

Texas – Texas defends as well as any team in the nation, pounds the glass and plays a physical brand of basketball that most teams cannot rival. Texas’ recent problems have been centered around failing to get the ball inside and relying on too many perimeter shots. If you would have asked me two or three weeks ago this ranking would have been much higher but it is never a good sign when you are not playing well heading into March. Of all the teams on this list, however, a run in the Big 12 tournament would most dramatically boost their stock heading into the Big Dance in my mind. If Texas were to win or make it to the conference tournament finals, I would probably put them back up to the Pitt level but for now: National Title Ranking: 3.

Those are the seven true national title contenders I see. Other teams that could win it that wouldn’t be a total shock include Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida (who is better than people realize) and a true darkhorse in Georgetown if Chris Wright can get healthy in time for the tournament. But if recent history tells us anything, expect the national champion to come from the group of seven I have ranked above. Remember that when filling out your brackets next week.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Weekend Update

As promised, I pretty much spent my entire weekend watching as many sporting events as humanly possible (along with a little Grammy action throw in to mix things up). There are too many opinions floating around in my head to include in just one post so today I am going to limit my thoughts mostly to college basketball. I will save some of my NBA thoughts for the end of the week as they approach their All-Star weekend and have some Penguins and NHL thoughts in-between. Before I get to hoops, however, I do want to touch upon the one big issue both in Pittsburgh and in hockey circles.

The Penguins-Islanders game on Friday night was an absolute disgrace to the sport of hockey. I am a fan of the game. I enjoy watching good hockey, not just the Penguins, and will often find myself watching two Western Conference teams playing when nothing else is on despite hockey coming in a distant fourth in my own sports preference list. I also do not have a problem with fighting and sort of understand its place and history in the game, not to mention enjoy a good fight…BUT what happened on Long Island was not hockey, it wasn’t sports, it wasn’t anything that should be allowed to happen in this country.

The NHL’s response to what happened was an even bigger joke and did nothing to deter similar events from happening in the future. Trying to sucker punch someone from behind, calling up goons for the sole purpose of getting in as many fights as possible and intentionally elbowing someone in the face and then continuing to attack him when injured were just some of the ridiculous antics that took place. These are things that would be illegal and insane at a sanctioned boxing or MMA fight, let alone a hockey game. If the NHL cannot properly handle, punish and stop these events from occurring, maybe it’s time to take fighting out of the game altogether. I will have a little more on this subject, including Mario’s statement, later this week.

Now, on to hoops…

· Pitt continued its Big East run with a second impressive road victory against Villanova on Saturday despite the absence of leading scorer Ashton Gibbs. Many people are beginning to believe that this team is better than the 2009 version featuring Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields. I don't think this team is as good as that team two years ago, but they are close. This version is definitely deeper and more well-rounded but that team had what should have been two first round NBA picks (maybe even two lottery picks based on current NBA production) while this team has zero draft picks at all right now. College basketball, however, isn't nearly as strong as it was two years ago so this Pitt team has a clear opportunity to achieve more than that team. Jamie Dixon’s squad is definitely one of the few favorites to advance to the Final Four in Houston.

· Speaking of the NBA, I had that exact conversation with my Dad heading to the Duquesne game on Sunday. I do not see why Brad Wannamaker and Gilbert Brown couldn't be decent 10th or 11th men in the NBA. They offer flexibility and the ability to defend two different positions well. It will probably come down to Wannamaker’s ability to play some point guard while it will be Brown’s shooting ability that will determine whether they can earn a jersey on the next level.

· Those that watched Kansas State beat up on Kansas last night in their first game as the #1 team saw what had me worried about this Jayhawks team a few weeks back. Despite its talent and depth, Kansas does not play tough enough underneath and has too many lapses on the defensive end. One game on the road in February means little, but for the team I think is the most talented in the nation they need to improve in those areas in a hurry if they want to accomplish a Final Four run.

· While Kansas’s loss showed some of its deficiencies, Ohio State’s loss was pretty meaningless to me. The Buckeyes looked like the best team in the nation for most of the game until Wisconsin got unbelievably hot in the second half. Those things happen in road games, especially to a good team like Wisconsin who is nearly unbeatable at home. Wisconsin did prove themselves as a team that none of the contenders want to see before the regional finals. Their ability to limit possessions, play solid defense and shoot the three-pointer are going to make them an awfully tough out come tournament time.

· The other two top teams I have yet to mention, Texas and Duke, kept plugging along. The Longhorns continue to win impressively and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they won the remainder of their games before the Big XII tournament. Duke, on the other hand, has looked less and less impressive as the season has moved on. Without star freshman point guard Kyle Irving, the Dukies have relied heavily on Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to carry the load. Despite some decent performances from their secondary guys the past couple of games, it wouldn’t shock me to see Duke stumble in a game or two before the Big Dance.

· Another team that is coming on strong is Georgetown who, after a little mid-season swoon, has won eight straight games including five over would-be tournament teams. The Hoyas feature one of the best backcourts in America with Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and Jason Clark. Freeman turned his ankle in the Marquette game on Sunday but all indications are that he should be fine. The Hoyas are still lacking in the interior, as being the nation’s 223rd ranked team in rebounding will attest, but we all know that guard play wins come March and nobody has had better backcourt play than Georgetown over the past month.

· I mentioned that I attended the Duquesne Dukes game on Sunday and it was fun to attend a game that meant something for that program for the first time in decades. Sure the Dukes fell to Xavier (a strong sleeper team for your NCAA brackets in about a month if you want some advice) but Coach Ron Everhart has the program headed in the right direction. The game was played in front of a sell-out crowd of over 10,000 people and just goes to show how people in Pittsburgh will get behind a team that has perennially struggled. The game had me thinking: Can you imagine PNC Park in September if the Pirates are even sniffing that magical 81st win? The place would be a sell-out every night.