Week 7 Quick Picks

CAROLINA (-2.5) over Washington
CLEVELAND (-3) over Seattle
Atlanta (+3.5) over DETROIT
TAMPA BAY (+1) over Chicago (In London)
Houston (+3) over TENNESSEE
NEW YORK JETS (+2) over San Diego
Denver (PK) over MIAMI
Kansas City (+6) over OAKLAND
Pittsburgh (-4) over ARIZONA
DALLAS (-13) over St. Louis
Green Bay (-9) over MINNESOTA
NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Indianapolis
Baltimore (-8.5) over JACKSONVILLE

(Last Week: 4-7-2; Season: 37-48-5)

Week 6 Picks

The picks have really been struggling the past two weeks and I think it's because I have been over thinking things. Instead of going with what we've seen so far this season and what I thought before the season...I have been thinking things like "the Jets can't possibly be this bad", despite thinking they way were overrated going into the season, or "I thought Detroit was going to be pretty good, but not this good." Well I'm done with that line of thinking...this week's picks are coming from the gut. No over thinking, here we go:

ATLANTA(-4) over Carolina

Indianapolis(+7) over CINCINNATI

DETROIT(-4.5) over San Francisco

St. Louis(+15) over GREEN BAY

NEW YORK GIANTS(-3) over Buffalo

PITTSBURGH(-12) over Jacksonville

Philadelphia(-1.5) over WASHINGTON

Houston(+8) over BALTIMORE

Cleveland(+7) over OAKLAND

New Orleans(-4.5) over TAMPA BAY

Dallas(+7) over NEW ENGLAND

Minnesota(+3) over CHICAGO

NEW YORK JETS(-7) over Miami

Last Week: 4-8-1
Season: 33-41-3

Update: I'm taking the Rangers over the Cardinals in the World Series in six games. I just think the Rangers have a line-up that is deeper than the Cardinals and a starting rotation that is also just a little more complete. The Cards have Prince Albert and Chris Carpenter though, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Cards win in 7 either. Who knows with the way my postseason predictions have gone!

NFL Week 4 and MLB Championship Series Quick Picks

New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA – As well as Cam Newton as played I don’t think he’s ready to keep up with Drew Brees and Co.

Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO – Eventually the Eagles are going to figure things out...I think.

INDIANAPOLIS (-2) over Kansas City – Rumor has it that this game is the reason the NFL created NFL Sunday Ticket!

JACKSONVILLE (+2) over Cincinnati – Jacksonville’s defense is slightly underrated and could be a tough match-up for Andy Dalton. Then again, Cincy’s defense is also slightly underrated and could be tough on Blaine Gabbert. That’s too many words for this game already.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-9.5) over Seattle – In no circumstance can we back Tarvaris Jackson on the road.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Arizona – If McNabb doesn’t find a way to win this one it could be the beginning of the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Tennessee – Not having Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith might just be a good thing as both have struggled early in the season. Not having James Harrison is a different story.

Oakland (+6) over HOUSTON – Can we say letdown game for the Texans? And no Andre Johnson to boot...

Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO – Imagine this one will come down to the wire and the 3 points could come up big here.

San Diego (-4) over DENVER – The Chargers are good, the Broncos are not.

New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND – Too many points here.

ATLANTA (+6.5) over Green Bay – Atlanta should be fired up to revenge their embarrassing loss in the playoffs last year. Plus the Packers can’t go undefeated, can they?

Chicago (+5) over DETROIT – Not taking anything away from the Lions but they have been extremely lucky to win their last two games. This line is about two points too high.

MLB Championship Series Picks

Detroit vs. Texas – Going with my heart instead of my head here despite the Tigers’ game one loss with ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Texas has a much better line-up and a deeper pitching staff but these Tigers just keep finding a way and Jim Leyland keeps pulling all the right strings (aka getting lucky!). Seriously, Don Kelly batting 2nd and he hits a home run! You can’t make these things up. Tigers in seven.

Milwaukee vs. St. Louis – Probably my two least favorite teams in all of baseball. Team arrogant in Milwaukee versus the most arrogant man in baseball in Tony La Russa. Still, you have to appreciate the swagger the Brewers are playing with right now and I have to root for someone. Since Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder helped lead my fantasy baseball team to a championship this year, I’ll go with the Brewers in what is a virtual coin-flip between these two teams. Let’s just hope the postseason continues to be as fantastic as it has been so far. Brewers in seven.

No Time to Panic for Steelers

I planned to write a piece on how it’s not time for Steelers fans to panic. We’re four games into the season and while it’s true that the defense hasn’t looked like its former dominant self and the offensive line looks horrendous, to put it mildly, I remind you again that it is only four games into the season! Instead of writing a couple thousand words myself, however, K.C. Joyner of ESPN did a fantastic job of beating me to the punch yesterday.

The only thing that I would add to Joyner’s points about this season’s team is that how quickly we forget “panic times” from the past few seasons. It was week 10 just a year ago when the Steelers were dismantled by the Patriots on Sunday Night Football on their way to a Super Bowl appearance. In 2008, it was week 16 that the Steelers were destroyed by Tennessee, losing home-field advantage in the process, on their way to Lombardi Trophy #6. Even going back to 2005, the Steelers lost three straight games from week 11 through week 13 before reeling off seven straight victories for their Super Bowl victory that year. So remember folks, it is only week four, this Steelers team is going to be fine in the long run…as long as Roethlisberger stays alive behind that offensive line!

Here is an excerpt from Joyner’s column and a link to the full column below…it does require ESPN Insider Access so I do apologize for those without that availability. For those without Insider access, I’ll sum it up: Don’t panic Steelers fans, the odds are heavily in the Steelers’ corner to make the playoffs!

The Pittsburgh Steelers also have a long and successful history of managing advanced roster age (four of their eight Super Bowl teams had at least eight starters who were 30 or older).

This is a fact that seems to have been forgotten following the Steelers' 2-2 start. Pundits and fans have criticized Pittsburgh for keeping so many veterans, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where the Steelers ranked as the oldest group in the NFL coming into the season.

That may have prompted some to write off the Steelers' chances of repeating as AFC champions, but a review of their first four games provides evidence that shows this team is still playing extremely well and has a strong chance of making it to the postseason.

Link to the rest of the story.

Friday Smorgasbord (as well MLB Playoffs and Week 4 NFL picks)

There has been a lot going on in the sports world these days so there doesn’t seem like a better time than now to have another smorgasbord. Let’s dive right in…

• First off, I decided to not print my Pitt to the ACC column largely because it looks like conference expansion has been put on hold for now and that was largely the gist of the column. That being said, I love the move to the ACC for Pitt. Sure, most of us will miss the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden, an event that I have personally attended a few times, but that is a sacrifice the school had to make for the better long term prospects of both football and basketball in the ACC. Besides, having Duke and/or North Carolina coming into the Oakland Zoo every year is a pretty nice trade off.

• The biggest point that I was going to make in my conference expansion column was that I wish we would just get to the four or five super-conferences already and be done with it. I think it is pretty obvious that we are heading in that direction and the constant speculation, rumors and back-office maneuvering is tiresome. This temporary hold on the conference expansion just means that we have to continue to discuss where and what conferences teams are going to end up in.

• Speaking of Pitt, Coach Graham and company got their first signature win last night on national television at home against South Florida…a game in which even LeBron James weighed in on how awesome Ray Graham is. Ray Graham, the RB, might have been in the Heisman conversation if Pitt would have just held on against Iowa. After last night’s win, anything short of a battle with West Virginia for the conference championship would have to be considered a disappointment.

• Mike Wallace is quickly becoming of the NFL’s best wide receivers. He doesn’t have the freakish skills that guys like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson have but his combination of speed and route running is quickly putting him on those guys level. Wallace reminds me a ton of a young Torry Holt or Reggie Wayne, with possibly even more speed than those guys had.

• After the Steelers first three games, I’m still not sure what kind of team they are. I think we will learn a lot more after this week’s game in Houston. That being said, I was extremely encouraged by the play of James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week. If those guys are healthy and playing the way they are capable of, this team will be right there in the end.

• If you missed Major League Baseball’s final regular season night on Wednesday, you missed a treat. It was like baseball’s version of March Madness with 3+ hours of top drama as the Cardinals and Rays somehow completed two of baseball’s most unbelievable rallies to pass the Braves and Red Sox for the wild card spots. I tried to be positive there for both the Cards and Rays but really they were two of the worst collapses in sports history by Boston and Atlanta - capped off by dramatic collapses in game 162 by each team.

• The baseball playoffs start today and I absolutely love post-season baseball. Every pitch is filled with so much drama, I only wish they occurred faster than every 30 seconds or so. In the Wild Card round, I’m going with the Yankees in four, Rays in five, Phillies and Brewers both in four to advance and I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of the Yankees winning the World Series. Since Atlanta collapsed and missed the postseason, I’ll take the Yanks to beat Milwaukee in the World Series after the Brewers pull the unexpected upset of Philadelphia for the NL pennant.

• With those picks out of the way, here are my week four NFL picks:

(Home Team in Caps)

DALLAS (-1.5) over Detroit – Continue to go against Detroit…might continue to regret it. It’s not that I don’t believe they are legit, it just comes down to individual games and match-ups.

New Orleans (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – No way the Jags and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert can keep up with this Saints offense.

PHILADELPHIA (-9) over San Francisco – This is the week the Eagles win big and everyone thinks everything is a-ok again in Philadelphia.

ST. LOUIS (+2) over Washington – Be careful going against home dogs.

CLEVELAND (pk) over Tennessee – I think it is going to take some time for Tennessee to adjust to life without Kenny Britt.

CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Buffalo – Again, beware of home dogs. Plus, Buffalo is going to come back to earth at some point.

Minnesota (-2) over KANSAS CITY – Eventually Minnesota is not going to blow a big halftime lead.

CHICAGO (-6.5) over Carolina – Newton has not seen anything like what he will see this week in Julius Peppers and the Bears ball-hawking defense.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) over HOUSTON – Does anyone not think that this game is a complete coin-toss? Give me the 3.5 points before I overthink it.

Atlanta (-4.5) over SEATTLE – I think Atlanta could up being our Jekyll and Hyde team this year…one week they look terrible and the next they look fantastic.

New York Giants (-1) over ARIZONA – So far the Kevin Kolb experience at QB is not working for the Cardinals.

Miami (+7) over SAN DIEGO – I think the Chargers win but the Dolphins keep it close.

GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Denver – Yes it is a ton of points but I can’t see how the Broncos can keep up with this fantastic Packers offense at home.

New England (-4) over OAKLAND – Check Bill Belichick’s record after a loss and this pick makes a whole lot more sense.

New York Jets (+3.5) over BALTIMORE – Think this one comes down to a field goal at the end.

Indianapolis (+10) over TAMPA BAY – I know the Monday Night Football schedule was made up before Peyton Manning’s availability was fully known but still, this has to be the worst line-up of primetime games I have ever seen.

(Last Week: 10-6; Overall: 23-23-2)

TGIF - Week 3 NFL Picks

It has been a frustrating week in the People’s QB’s blogging world as I had about half of a long-thought out piece on Pitt’s jump to the ACC (and the madness that is the game of conference musical chairs going on in college sports right now) written on Wednesday before a work issue forced me to put the rest of that piece on hold. I had also planned to do a Smorgasbord today since it’s been a while, and I had a whole list of topics that I have some thoughts on, but again things happen when this isn’t your primary job.

We’ll just chalk this week up to the Man, release this week’s NFL picks and come back next week with that Pitt piece, a wrap-up to the Pirates’ season and where they are headed and finally get that Smorgasbord back next Friday. Thanks for understanding and have a great weekend…

(Home Team in Caps)

New England (-8.5) over BUFFALO – Sorry, still don’t believe in this Buffalo team all the way.

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver – Signs it could be a long year in Denver…Tim Tebow had to line up at WR last week.

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Houston – The Texans’ defense is improved but still not enough to slow down Drew Brees at home.

Miami (+3) over CLEVELAND – Despite being 0-2, I think this Miami team can be solid if Chad Henne continues to play the way he has in the first two games. Well, maybe the way he played in the first week, not last week, but still…

MINNESOTA (+3.5) over Detroit – Minnesota is finding ways to lose, Detroit looks like it may never lose. I think things normalize a bit this week and the Vikes pull the home upset. (Note: that was an extremely weird sentence to write – The Vikings pulling a home upset over the Lions.)

New York Giants (+7) over PHILADELPHIA – Vick is going to play and that had me wavering but these games always seem tight and nobody has a better defensive line to chase after Vick than the G-Men do. Eli throws a late TD for a cover, the Eagles recover the onside kick and that’s that.

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Jacksonville – Newton is going to come back to earth a bit sometime soon but the Jags are giving rookie Blaine Gabbert his first start this week. That means Newton and Company should get their first victory.

Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO – Because Green Bay is the best team in football right now...sorry Patriots’ fans.

OAKLAND (+3) over New York Jets – I like the match-up for the Raiders. They are going to run the football offensively, keep the game low-scoring and force the Jets’ banged-up offensive line to block their terrific defensive line.

San Francisco (+3) over CINCINNATI – Here’s a guess…not too many TVs outside of San Francisco and Cincinnati will be tuned into this one.

SEATTLE (+3.5) over Arizona – The Seahawks have the NFL’s best home-field advantage…about the only thing they have going in their favor these days.

BALTIMORE (-4) over St. Louis – I am regretting that I didn’t take a look at the Rams’ schedule before making them my pick to win the NFC West. St. Louis could easily start the season 1-6 or even 0-7 before getting to the easier portion of the schedule. Even if they are the favorite in their final eight games, teams simply do not recover from starts that bad.

SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City – I don’t think you could make this line high enough for me to pick the Chiefs.

Atlanta (+1.5) over Tampa Bay – Both of these teams found their mojo last week but it’s the Falcons who I think are for real.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over INDIANAPOLIS – Example number 1,000,000,001 why NFL preseason strength of schedule rankings mean absolutely nothing.

DALLAS (-4) over Washington – Because I don’t want to live in world where Rex Grossman is 3-0 and I have to read stupid articles saying how “Grossman is the model of stability in a division with Vick, Romo and Eli…” Give me a break.

(Last Week: 5-10-1; Overall: 13-17-2)

Week 2 NFL Power Rankings and Picks

Since I haven’t done an official NFL Power Rankings since before the pre-season and I am in the ranking mood this week, let’s do one now that we have some real game-action to go on. These rankings are obviously iron-clad for the rest of season, or at least until Sunday’s games when our view of certain teams will probably flip 180 degrees!

(Scroll to the bottom if you are only interested in my week 2 picks.)

1. Green Bay – If you had any doubts about the Packers having a Super Bowl letdown they were answered last Thursday night. The Pack have the league’s best roster and are finally playing up-tempo offensively, something I begged them to do for weeks last year!

2. New England – Tom Brady is pretty good. Feeling even better about my Super Bowl pick after the way the Pats and their biggest challenger, the Steelers, played in week one.

3. New Orleans – Some may look at the Saints loss on opening night as a negative. I saw so many positives that this team is going to be a force that I had to jump them up four spots in my power rankings.

4. Philadelphia – The Eagles dominated everyone’s obvious sleeper team in week one but Michael Vick did not look particularly sharp making decisions and throwing the football and that is something he is going to have to do if this team is going to reach the promised land.

5. Baltimore – The Ravens may have played their best overall game since white-washing the Patriots in the 2009 playoffs. Flacco looked tremendous, Ray Rice was phenomenal and the defense was all over Big Ben. More importantly, the offensive line played a very solid game. If the Ravens can get that kind of play from Bryant McKinnie and the rest of the o-line on a consistent basis, their Super Bowl chances would skyrocket.

6. Pittsburgh – It’s one game people, relax! Pittsburgh talk radio was unbearable this week…can people not remember it was week 9 last year when the Steelers were pulverized by the Patriots and that meant nothing on their way to the Super Bowl? I still see the Steelers as the co-favorites for AFC supremacy but I can’t rank them ahead of the Ravens after being dismantled last week. My biggest concern at this point is James Harrison’s back. The star OLB did not look like himself throughout the pre-season and certainly did nothing in week one to squash those fears.

7. San Diego – Do you realize the Chargers allowed the opening kick to be returned for a touchdown, played the rest of the game without a kicker and threw two costly interceptions yet still won the game? Could they finally be turning a new leaf? You could also say that they held the Vikings to 28 net yards passing and held the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game and still almost lost but I am an in an optimistic mood this week.

8. New York Jets – The Jets did everything wrong but lose the game Sunday night. I’m still a little confused on how they managed to pull that off but a win is a win. The Jets badly need the running game to get going if they are going to compete with the elite in the AFC this year.

9. Dallas – On the other side of the ball Dallas did everything right until the final ten minutes or so when Tony Romo decided to commit two costly turnovers and the Cowboys allowed a punt to get blocked. Still, a lot of positives can be taken from this one in Big D.

10. Houston – A good start for the Texans who are trying to exercise their regular season demons and reach the postseason for the first time in franchise history. The game, and the division, looks a whole lot easier when number 18 isn’t around.

11. Chicago – Many people were calling for a big letdown season in Chicago after last year’s surprising run to the NFC Championship game. That wasn’t the case in week one. We know Lovie Smith’s defenses are going to run around all over the field and this is Jay Cutler’s second year in Mike Martz’ system so the drop-off may not be so great after-all…something I didn’t think was going to happen dramatically anyway.

12. Atlanta – Atlanta saved the Steelers from the week one Super Bowl contender who performed the worst award. This week Mike Vick makes his return to the A-T-L and the Falcons are staring at an 0-2 start right in the face.

13. New York Giants – This is where doing power rankings in week two can get a little dicey. People will say how can you put the G-Men ahead of the Redskins when they just lost to them? Well I can because they are MY rankings, and I still think the long-term forecast for the Giants is better than that of the ‘Skins.

14. Detroit – The Lions get the biggest jump from our pre-preseason power rankings moving up from 19th. The Lions went on the road and dominated what we thought would be a halfway decent Bucs team. Believe me when I tell you that this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Stafford looked terrific, Megatron is a freak and the Lions defensive line is downright scary.

15. St. Louis – It was only one loss to one of the League’s elite teams so I am not all that concerned with their week one performance. What I am concerned about is the injuries to an already weak secondary.

16. Minnesota – Since I am being optimistic this week I am going to say the Vikings almost won a game on the road against a Super Bowl contender despite only getting 39 yards passing from Donovan McNabb. (If I were being pessimistic, I would say that McNabb didn’t look very good and that the offensive line looked even worse.)

17. Miami – Sure, the Dolphins were absolutely torched by Tom Brady and company but I’m not sure that any defense would not have been the way the Pats were rolling Monday Night. Steelers’ fans know the feeling from their meeting last year. The encouraging sign for the Dolphins, however, was the play of Chad Henne. If the Dolphins get that kind of performance out of their QB all year they will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt.

18. Jacksonville – It was right around the Vikings spot in the rankings that I started to notice that this is really a season of the haves and the have-nots. There are a lot more teams that I was looking to put towards the bottom of this list than there are in the middle of it. Jacksonville looked the best of the bad teams and should at least have a solid defense to keep them in most games.

19. Tampa Bay – If it weren’t for a gift pick-six and a late touchdown while Detroit was in its prevent defense we would be talking a lot more about how poorly the Buccaneers played in week one. The Bucs absolutely have to get LeGarrette Blount and the running game going to take some pressure off of Josh Freeman and to give the defense some rest.

20. Tennessee – Tennessee is another team that has to get their running game going with Chris Johnson. I know he missed most of training camp but nine carries is nowhere near enough when the Titans never trailed by more than 13 points.

21. Arizona – The good news is that the Cardinals got a pretty good game from Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells. The bad news is that their secondary looked absolutely horrendous. Lucky for the Cardinals that they play in a division where Alex Smith and Tarvaris Jackson are two of the QBs that will be trying to take advantage of that secondary.

22. San Francisco – Jim Harbaugh won his coaching debut, mostly thanks to the Seahawks anemic offense and his returner Ted Ginn Jr. You can tell that Harbaugh didn’t have much confidence in his own QB but hey, at least David Akers looked good kicking the ball.

23. Oakland – I actually think I had the Raiders a little low in my initial rankings and might even have them a little low here as well. The Raiders can run the football and win the battle along the defensive line, a formula that can at least keep them competitive.

24. Indianapolis – I don’t think the Colts envisioned the season starting this way when the lockout started back in the spring. It’s going to take some time, but there is still enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to win five or six games this year.

25. Washington – Rex Grossman looked like a different man on Sunday, playing with poise and not forcing the ball into tight spaces. There’s still a lot not to like about this Washington offense but for one week let’s give them the credit they deserve.

26. Carolina – We saw all of the reasons that Cam Newton went #1 in the draft and I don’t think the Panthers’ brass could have been more happy about week one despite the gut-wrenching loss.

27. Denver – I think we saw why it is going to be a long season for Denver fans this year. The Broncos can’t stop the run and their offensive line is poor, at best.

28. Buffalo – The Bills may have put a shellacking on the Chiefs in week one but I don’t think it takes a football expert to understand why they are ranked where they are. Still, it was a great opening week performance by Buffalo and a lot of credit goes to Chan Gailey and his staff for having the Bills ready to perform that way.

29. Kansas City – Tough choice between the Chiefs and Browns for who had week one’s most embarrassing home loss. I’m going with the Chiefs, fresh off their first playoff appearance since 2006, they lay a complete egg against a Buffalo team that many expected to be among the league’s worst teams. To make matters worse, star safety Eric Berry suffered a torn ACL and will be out for the season.

30. Seattle – Ummm, Tarvaris Jackson, really? That’s the best they could come up with in the offseason for a starting quarterback? Hey, the Seahawks did outgain the Niners 219-209 and they are firmly entrenched in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

31. Cincinnati – Andy Dalton looked pretty solid before leaving with an injury and AJ Green had a big 41-yard touchdown reception from my man, Bruce Gradkowski. The Bengals are off to a great start in what is certainly a rebuilding year and their young talent, including tight end Jermaine Gresham, showed some very good signs in week one.

32. Cleveland – Absolutely pitiful loss for a Cleveland team that built a lot of positive momentum at the end of last year into this year. To be honest, the Browns probably don’t deserve to be last in these rankings but I can’t get over a 10-point home loss to a rebuilding Bengals team.


Week 2 Picks (Home Team in Caps)

Oakland (+3.5) over BUFFALO
Kansas City (+9) over DETROIT
Baltimore (-6) over TENNESSEE
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) over Cleveland
MINNESOTA (-3) over Tampa Bay
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Chicago
Green Bay (-10) over CAROLINA
Arizona (+4) over WASHINGTON
Dallas (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO
PITTBURGH (-13) over Seattle
NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Jacksonville
DENVER (-3.5) over Cincinnati
MIAMI (+3.5) over Houston
San Diego (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Philadelphia (+2.5) over ATLANTA
St. Louis (+6) over NEW YORK GIANTS
(Last Week: 8-7-1)

Week 1 NFL Picks

Well my 2011 NFL picks got off to an unlucky start last night by virtually nailing everything about the game but coming up one-yard short on the Saints covering the spread. What a tremendous way to open the season, however, and a great beginning to this season’s MVP race.

My only complaint about the game, and I have to preface this by saying that I think Sean Payton is the best offensive mind in the NFL right now (with apologies to Andy Reid and Peyton Manning), but on the two biggest plays of the game I thought the formations and play-calls were so predictable…especially the fourth down play-action pass when the Saints had receivers spread across the field. The Packers defenders never even hesitated on the run fake and the same thing on the final play when every Packers player sold out to stop the run and a naked bootleg would have let Drew Brees walk into the end zone. Ah well, it’s only one game, 255 more to go.

In case you were wondering, I finished last year above .500 at 127-122-7, but below the coveted 53% mark to make a profit. I promise to improve on that this year…or at least go down trying!

(home teams in caps)

Pittsburgh (+1) over BALTIMORE – Baltimore is a good, solid football team but their weaknesses lie in the secondary and on the offensive line, not a good combination against the Steelers.

Atlanta (-2.5) over CHICAGO – Tempted to pick the upset here but I think Atlanta will be ready to play after their disappointing exit from the playoffs last season.

TAMPA BAY (-1) over Detroit – The Lions should be much improved but I can’t trust them on the road until they prove something. Josh Freeman leads a fourth quarter drive for the win.

KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo – Ryan Fitzpatrick playing on the road against a fast defense, no thanks!

HOUSTON (-8.5) over Indianapolis – I don't think the Colts will be as bad without Manning as most people do, but I don't think they will be very good either.

Tennessee (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – The Jaguars cut their starting quarterback heading into the first game of the season, I don’t think that will work out too well.

Philadelphia (-4) over ST. LOUIS – If you frequent the blog, you know how highly I think of Sam Bradford but Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and that Eagles offense in a dome on that fast turf will be too much.

Cincinnati (+6.5) over CLEVELAND – The Bengals are in for a long rebuilding year but I think they keep this one close.

New York (-3) over WASHINGTON – Eli is going to bounce back in a big way this year and I love his weapons on the outside. The G-Men are going to have problems on the other side of the ball but that shouldn’t be a big problem against the Redskins offense.

Carolina (+7) over ARIZONA – Carolina is going to run, run, run some more and hope their defense can keep them in the game. I think it works enough to keep this one close but Arizona ultimately wins.

San Francisco (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Tavaris Jackson starting on the road, or anywhere for that matter, is not going to lead to many wins. Jim Harbaugh wins his debut as the 49ers coach and Pete Carroll remembers how it was much easier to beat Harbaugh at Stanford when he was at USC and could pay his players more.

Minnesota (+9) over SAN DIEGO – San Diego is a perennial slow-starter and the Vikings are going to be much improved from a year ago. I’m not calling the upset, but I think this one is closer than you would expect.

Dallas (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS – Romo is back and the Cowboys have plenty of weapons around him if Miles Austin is able to play. I was worried about the Cowboys depleted secondary but remembered it will be Mark Sanchez trying to take advantage.

New England (-7) over MIAMI – I bit on Chad Henne a bit too much last year and he has to prove to me that he can be an adequate QB in this league before I back the Dolphins this year. Besides, I’m not going against my Super Bowl pick in week one.

DENVER (-3) over Oakland – The Broncos can really get after the QB and the Raiders are a little shaky up front. Can somebody tell me why this game is on Monday night?

Opening Night Prediction

New Orleans @ Green Bay (-4.5). This NFC clash matches the last two Super Bowl Champions and could very well be a preview of this year's NFC Championship game. I love the addition of Mark Ingram to the Saints' offense and I think Sean Payton will have these guys flying around tonight. I expect a high-scoring affair that comes down to the final possesion and when that's the case, I'm taking the points, New Orleans (+4.5).

2011 NFL Season Predictions

The Blog is back after an extended break, recharged and ready for the start of the NFL season, the baseball playoffs and the old college gridiron. Today, we dive into the NFL preview, Friday we will be back with the first week's picks and early next week I'll unveil my first top 25 of the college football season, plus a little bit extra on your Pitt Panthers as they head into the real part of their schedule.

If you recall my pre-preseason power rankings for the NFL, really not a lot has changed in the pecking order. Green Bay still has the most loaded roster with New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta hot on their trail in the NFC. New England and Pittsburgh continue to look like the class of the AFC with the Chargers, Jets and Ravens looming in the background. Dallas, Houston and the rest of the NFC North continue to be darkhorses as teams who could jump from last to first. The only real change, and it’s not really a change, is the continued uncertainty about Peyton Manning’s health. If Manning plays 16 games, it is as sure as the Pirates will have a losing season that the Colts will be in the playoffs. Without Manning for part or even all of the season, the AFC South just got a whole lot more interesting.

To steal last season’s opening remarks because frankly, I don’t think I can write it any better: The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with what might be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. The pre-preseason power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2011 NFL season playing out.

AFC East
New England Patriots – 12-4
New York Jets – 10-6
Miami Dolphins – 6-10
Buffalo Bills – 4-12

The Patriots added some veteran star-power to an already star-laden line-up. Tom Brady is probably entering the end of his prime and realizes that he will not have a whole lot more opportunities to win another Super Bowl. The Jets will once again have a tremendous team held back by a below-average quarterback and the Dolphins and Bills may improve some but not enough to gain ground on the Jets and Pats.

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4
Baltimore Ravens – 10-6
Cleveland Browns – 6-10
Cincinnati Bengals – 3-13

Funny how much can change in one year. Last year at this time we were discussing how the Steelers could survive the first four games without Ben Roethlisberger and a year later we are nitpicking their weaknesses after appearing in their second Super Bowl in three years. The defense should once again be the best in football and Roethlisberger looks better than ever and has a full complement of weapons to distribute the ball to. Baltimore, meanwhile, saw some turnover on its roster during the offseason. One of the moves I liked best was bringing in Lee Evans from Buffalo to stretch the field. The Week One battle should give one of these teams a big leg up in the division. I also like the direction that Cleveland is heading in and they are hopeful for another step forward from QB Colt McCoy. Cincinnati, meanwhile, begins a rebuilding job with rookies Andy Dalton as their franchise QB and AJ Green as his primary weapon.

AFC South
Houston Texans – 10-6
Indianapolis Colts – 9-7
Tennessee Titans – 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11

I am hedging my bets here as I am not sure what to make of Peyton Manning’s injury at this time. If he misses only a couple of weeks, I can still see the Colts making a run at the division or at least a wild-card spot. If Manning cannot return soon, the Colts could slip to below .500 for the first time since 2001. The Texans once again look like the team ready to make the jump into contender status but until they actually do it we have to remain skeptical. Manning’s injury could be just the opening Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson need to win their first division title in franchise history. Tennessee and Jacksonville both begin rebuilding jobs with rookie QBs waiting in the wings to take over their respective offenses. Of the two, Tennessee should be more competitive with veteran Matt Hasselbeck at the helm after the Jaguars cut their veteran starter, David Garrard, just this week.

AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs – 8-8
Oakland Raiders – 7-9
Denver Broncos – 5-11

The Chargers should return to their spot atop the AFC West and could be right back in the thick of things for the AFC crown if they can correct their special teams miscues and lethargical starts to the season, both very correctable. The Chiefs, meanwhile, could actually be better than they were last year but end up with a lesser record. With an improving, young roster, this is the year they must decide whether Matt Cassel is the right QB for the job. Oakland will likewise take a step back this season after losing a number of key contributors to their 8-8 campaign last year but I continue to like the direction they are heading. Denver could have one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league on defense, which can win some games by itself, but there isn’t a whole lot to like about that offense.

NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles – 11-5
Dallas Cowboys – 10-6
New York Giants – 9-7
Washington Redskins – 5-11

I can’t decide whether this or the NFC North is the best division in football this year. Green Bay is the best team on paper, Washington is the worst, but the top three of the East, overall, are slightly better than top three in the North. You’re probably saying “Who cares” and you’re right. It should be interesting to see how the Eagles offseason acquisitions mesh in Philadelphia, how Tony Romo returns from his injury and how the Giants adjust to a slew of injuries to their defense this preseason. One thing this division does not lack is entertainment.

NFC North
Green Bay Packers – 11-5
Minnesota Vikings – 9-7
Chicago Bears – 7-9
Detroit Lions – 7-9

Not much more needs to be said about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but boy do I want to put the Vikings in the playoffs as my sleeper team. I think they will be competitive, as will the Bears and Lions, but all three don’t quite stack up with the NFC elite.

NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 12-4
Atlanta Falcons – 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers– 7-9
Carolina Panthers – 4-12

The Saints are probably the one true contender being least talked about this offseason and I am not sure why. With Sean Payton and Drew Brees controlling the offense they are going to be a force and rookie RB Mark Ingram could have a tremendous impact. Speaking of rookie impacts, Julio Jones is expected to have one in Atlanta as a compliment to Roddy White at receiver. There are no more excuses for Matty Ice as it is time to take the next step on the quarterback latter (something that I question if he has it in him). Tampa Bay, much like the Chiefs, could actually be better than they were last year but finish with a worse record but like the Chiefs you have to like their young, improving roster. Carolina will bring up the cellar in this division as they take their lumps while Cam Newton learns on the job.

NFC West
St. Louis Rams – 9-7
Arizona Cardinals – 8-8
San Francisco 49ers – 6-10
Seattle Seahawks – 5-11

Don’t think anyone could argue with you if you picked any one of these teams to win the NFC West. On second thought, Tavaris Jackson is the starting quarterback in Seattle so that automatically relegates the Seahawks to the basement. While I think Matt Ryan has reached his potential as a starting QB, we are only beginning to see what Sam Bradford can do. I expect the Cards and Rams to battle for divisional supremacy with Bradford and the Rams ultimately getting the job done. As for the Niners, the good news is they have a real coach in Jim Harbaugh now…the bad news is that Alex Smith is still their starting QB.

Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers (Yes, I picked him last year. I meant to say Super Bowl MVP)
Offensive Player of the Year – Philip Rivers
Defensive Player of the Year – Darrelle Revis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Mark Ingram
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Von Miller
Coach of the Year – Gary Kubiak

Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore, New York over Houston
Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis

Pittsburgh over New York, New England over San Diego
New Orleans over Atlanta, Philadelphia over Green Bay

New England over Pittsburgh, New Orleans over Philadelphia

Super Bowl XLVI
New England over New Orleans

Pre-Pre-Season Power Rankings

With the free agent frenzy that went on after the new NFL year began it was impossible to keep up real time with the activity. Instead of wrapping up all of the action in a long post, and I am sure there is still plenty to come with roughly 200 players still on the market, let’s do this year’s first edition of the Power Rankings with a special emphasis on the offseason moves. We’ll call this the Pre-Pre-Season Power Rankings!

1. Green Bay – The Packers did not make many moves this offseason and why would they. The Pack were easily the best team in the playoffs last year and not only do they bring almost the entire team back, they bring some very valuable pieces off the injured list to add to an already stacked roster. Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are going to make defending Aaron Rodgers that much tougher!

2. New England – I absolutely loved the Patriots bringing in Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Low-risk, high-reward moves that could make the Pats downright scary if they work out. Haynesworth, in particular, should have plenty left in the tank and Bill Belichick will probably bring out the best in him while Ochocinco could thrive in an offense where Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around.

3. Pittsburgh – The offensive line is still a question mark but aren’t we sick of saying that? Roethlisberger is going to get the job done regardless of who is in front of him. Pittsburgh’s defense is still easily the league’s top unit and if everyone can stay healthy the Steelers will be knocking on the door like usual.

4. Philadelphia – Ahhh, the offseason darlings. I loved every move the Eagles made and in particular bringing in Vince Young to back-up Michael Vick, who will get hurt at some point. I have been championing that move for a while now on both accounts. Philly still has some question marks on the o-line and in the linebacking corps but in the NFL these days everyone has question marks. I love Michael Vick as a player and have often said he could be my QB anytime as he is going to win ballgames, but he is the sole reason I have Philadelphia fourth. Despite my appreciation for him, I still question Vick’s ability to stay healthy and his ability to win three straight games in the playoffs where you are going to be forced to win at least one game with your arm.

5. Indianapolis – The sleeping giant! The Colts weren’t busy this offseason but they get all of their injured offensive players back. Put a healthy team around Manning and this team could easily gain home-field advantage in the playoffs where nobody wants to play the Colts on that turf.

6. New York Jets – Similar to Philadelphia, the Jets had a very active couple of days in free agency culminating with a resigning of Santonio Holmes and the addition of Plaxico Burress. Mark Sanchez needs all the help he can get because he is still the reason this team trails the other AFC contenders when it comes to Super Bowl chances.

7. New Orleans – Love the Mark Ingram draft pick who gives the Saints a true RB that they can pound inside and catch the ball out of the backfield and the addition of Darren Sproles should help offset the loss of Reggie Bush. Sean Payton is the league’s best offensive coach and I expect another lethal attack in ‘Nawlins. The defense should be improved and if I had to guess right now, the Saints could be the Packers biggest obstacle to the Super Bowl and not the Eagles.

8. Atlanta – The Falcons added Julio Jones in the draft to compliment Roddy White and brought in Ray Edwards to get after the quarterback. The Falcons have proven they can do it in the regular season but now need Matt Ryan to take another step forward if they are going to do it in the playoffs.

9. Baltimore – Stingy defense, Ray Rice, another year of development for Joe Flacco and the Ravens should be right where they always are and that’s just a step below the AFC elite. I did like the signing of Vonta Leach to be a lead blocker for Rice and new back-up Ricky Williams who is as good as any backup RB in the league.

10. Dallas – Nobody is talking about Dallas these days and that might be a good thing for a team that has been overhyped the past few years. Don’t be fooled, however, as the Cowboys still have a roster loaded with talent and with the ouster of Wade Phillips as coach maybe they can regain some of their lost swagger. The key to their season will be the play of the offensive line and giving Tony Romo time to get the ball out to their dangerous weapons on the outside.

11. San Diego – Another team that was severely disappointing last year but remains extremely talented. I expect last year to be more of a blip than a downward spiral for both the Cowboys and Chargers. Philip Rivers should carry this team back to their normal place atop the AFC West standings.

12. New York Giants – I guess we will call this part of the rankings the 2010 underachievers as big things were expected from numbers 10-12 and all fell short of expectations. The biggest signing the G-Men made was retaining RB Ahmad Bradshaw, part of a pretty strong tandem with Brandon Jacobs. The Giants need improved secondary play and more consistent play from Eli Manning to return to the playoffs.

13. Chicago Bears – The NFC North is the best division in football and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bears, Vikings or Lions finish second behind Green Bay. For now let’s give the edge to the Bears who are fresh off a NFC Championship game appearance and will be in their second year under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Bears brought in Roy Williams to give Jay Cutler another weapon and are expected to use Devin Hester even more on offense.

14. St. Louis – Somebody has to win the NFC West right? The Rams are poised to be this year’s breakout team with Sam Bradford now having a year under his belt. I expect a tremendous improvement from the young star and continued improvement from the young defense. I thought the Rams should have brought in more help around Bradford but they are hoping that Mike Sims-Walker can be that go-to wide receiver.

15. Houston – The Texans tried to shore up their atrocious secondary by signing cornerback Johnathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning (two guys who don’t know how to spell their own first names by the way). Anything would be an improvement on last year’s secondary but Joseph could be the impact corner this team needs. We know Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and company are going to put up points but you have to stop somebody to win.

16. Minnesota – I know that I am mostly on my own with this one but I kind of like this Vikings team with the addition of Donovan McNabb. I thought they should have done more to keep Sidney Rice on board but this team’s biggest problem last year was turnovers and that is something that McNabb should help. The Vikings still have a lot of veteran talent and are only one year removed from their near miss of a Super Bowl appearance. A whole lot of Adrian Peterson and less turnovers could have this team right back on the cusp of the playoffs.

17. Kansas City – The next two teams were the surprise teams of 2010 and are poised to take a step back. I love Kansas City’s young defense, however, and expect the unit to continue to get better. I don’t love Matt Cassel but the Chiefs are doing their best to surround him with as much talent as possible after drafting Jonathan Baldwin of Pitt and signing Steve Breaston as a free agent (that or they love Pittsburgh kids at WR).

18. Tampa Bay – Love me some Josh Freeman. Seriously, the young QB reminds me a ton of Ben Roethlisberger albeit with a little less natural ability. The Bucs weren’t active in the free agent market despite having a ton of cap room to work with but did do a good job resigning their own free agents. It will be Freeman’s development, however, and how the team deals with last year’s progress that will be the keys to the Bucs season.

19. Detroit – It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Lions in the playoffs and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them finish 4-12 in the brutal NFC North. The key will be Matt Stafford’s health and a major improvement in the secondary. Stafford has shown flashes of elite talent but hasn’t shown the durability or consistency to prove he can lead a team. The Lions signed a pair of free-agent RBs in Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison to replace the rookie RB Mikel Leshoure who has already been lost for the season and signed Eric Wright and Erik Coleman to help upgrade the secondary. The defensive line is dominant but can the back seven hold up its end?

20. Jacksonville – The Jaguars did their best to upgrade a defensive unit that was downright terrible last year with the signings Paul Posluszny and Clint Session (is it me or is there an absolute ton of Pittsburgh connections occurring!) at linebacker and Drew Coleman and Dawan Landry in the secondary. The additions will help but will it be enough? Offensively the team will rely on David Garrard and MJD again after surrendering their second round pick to move up to draft QB Blaine Gabbert.

21. Miami – The Dolphins were another active team in the free agent market but were not able to acquire a QB to compete with or take the place of Chad Henne. Reggie Bush is explosive and the Dolphins went all offense in the draft but none of that will matter unless Henne’s play greatly improves.

22. Arizona – The Cardinals made the move to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Eagles a year too late. The Cards were the most talented team in the division last year but failed to win the division because of awful quarterback play. Now the Rams have probably passed them by and the 49ers and Seahawks aren’t far behind, if they are even behind at all.

23. San Francisco – The 49ers, likewise, were done in by poor quarterback play last year but decided to get rid of the coach and keep the QB. Jim Harbaugh seems like an excellent coach but I doubt even he will be able to get very far with Alex Smith in control of the offense. I don’t think Smith is terrible, but he is more of a good back-up than starter. The 49ers did sign some big names such as Braylon Edwards, Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner but there are still significant holes on this team.

24. Seattle – To be brutally honest, the entire NFC West left me scratching my head this offseason. The division is there for the taking this year and yet no team made a significant splash to upgrade their roster. Seattle did a great job in bringing in Sidney Rice and Zach Miller as offensive weapons but have pretty much no one to get them the ball. What’s worse is that Matt Leinart thought it was a better career move to stay a back-up in Houston rather than compete with Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst in Seattle….huh?

25. Tennessee – I have a buddy who is pretty high on Tennessee as they bring back a handful of injured players from last year. I’m not so high as I thought much of the Titans past success was brought by the stability and leadership of Jeff Fisher. The task of rebuilding is now left to Mike Munchak. Munchak drafted Jake Locker to be his QB of the future and brought in Matt Hasselbeck to be his QB of now. The biggest news of the offseason though is the holdout of RB Chris Johnson. Even with Johnson, I think this team struggles to approach .500.

26. Oakland – The Raiders were surprisingly quiet during the short free agent period and I guess that had as much to do with their being over the salary cap than anything else. The team showed marked improvement last year under former head coach Tom Cable and it is now left to Hue Jackson to continue that improvement. I think the Raiders take a step back this year before moving forward again.

27. Denver – Denver would have been lower on this list had they traded quarterback Kyle Orton as it was rumored they were trying to. The Broncos simply aren’t very talented and that will only lead to more Tebow controversy as the season progresses.

28. Carolina – Carolina made its splash in the draft by selecting Cam Newton #1 overall and all signs point to the Heisman winner being behind center from day one. Carolina also spent a ton of money on their own players despite their 2-14 record a year ago. Expect to see Newton handing the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart a ton this year as the Panthers go through growing pains with the young QB.

29. Cleveland – As with many of the bottom-tier teams, Cleveland’s hope depends on the development of a young quarterback in Colt McCoy. The Browns brought in very little help for the young QB besides 2nd round draft pick Greg Little and with the Steelers and Ravens in the division it could be a long season. The good news is that the Browns might not be the worst team in their own state!

30. Washington – The Redskins focused most of their efforts this offseason on improving the defense while resigning the feared passing combo of Rex Grossman and Santana Moss. I wonder if Mike Shanahan wishes he stayed retired at this point.

31. Buffalo – The Bills signed Brad Smith, Nick Barnett, Buster Davis and Tyler Thigpen this offseason. That sounds more like a boy band than a football team.

32. Cincinnati – I do like the Bengals bringing in Nate Clements and Bruce Gradkowski (another Pittsburgh connection!) but let’s face it, this team is going to have a rough transition from the Carson Palmer era. They do have some nice young talent but it could be a couple of years before they are back to competing.

QB Dominoes Starting to Fall in the NFL

The QB dominoes are starting to fall in the NFL:

It looks as though the Minnesota Vikings are going to land QB Donovan McNabb. Those that are long-time readers of the blog know my respect and appreciation for McNabb but he certainly seemed to have lost something last year in Washington. Can a move to the Twin Cities revitalize his career? It looks like we are about to find out. I like the move on the Vikings behalf as they have enough talent and a veteran laden roster to make another run at the Super Bowl. Intrusting the starting role to a rookie would not have worked, nor gone over well with the veteran roster. If McNabb can be even close to the player he was in Philadelphia, Minnesota will be a tough out in the NFC. I do think the Vikings need to supplement this move by resigning WR Sidney Rice. An offense with Rice, Harvin, Peterson and Shiancoe surrounding McNabb sounds awfully imposing on defenses.

Similar to Minnesota, the Tennessee Titans were looking for a veteran quarterback to lead their offense while their first round draft choice learns from the sidelines. They, too, look like they have found their man in Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is 36-years-old and it looked like he lost some zip on his ball last year in Seattle but he is still a smart quarterback and a good team leader that should help Jake Locker learn and grow for a year. Overall, I’m not a big fan of this signing but it accomplishes the objective for the Titans who are probably on the outside looking in of the loaded AFC playoff bubble anyhow.

Crazy Week in Sports; Steelers Sign Ike

This marks a crazy week in sports as we try to track the rumors and realities of the Major League Baseball trade deadline as well as the free agent frenzy taking place in the NFL. We would need to take a vacation to track all of the wheeling and dealings going on in both leagues right now. With that in mind, instead of writing a long article on what may or may not happen this week around the leagues, I will post short updates and comments as major trades go down in baseball and major signings and/or trades happen in the NFL.

The biggest news to occur so far in Pittsburgh is the Steelers resigning (or more appropriately reaching an agreement) with cornerback Ike Taylor. Taylor is instrumental to the Steelers defense as their top cover corner and was unanimously considered the Steelers top free agent priority. The Steelers are also a perfect fit for Taylor’s physical style and the two sides were both better off being able to work out a deal. With Taylor’s signing in place, the Steelers are poised to have one of, if not the best defense in the NFL once again. The lockout and lack of preparation time should also be an advantage to the Steelers veteran defense who were probably better served by the time off than the lack of minicamps and meetings.

Welcome Back Smorgasbord - King James, Terrelle Pryor and More!

The blog, much like LeBron James during the fourth quarters of the NBA Finals, has been on hiatus for a few weeks but we are back now to our regularly scheduled program. I will be back with columns every Wednesday and Friday with shorter posts sprinkled in here and there when thoughts and/or events come up. Since I have not commented on anything in a couple weeks here, what better way to jump back in than with an extended smorgasbord! Here we go…

- Where else can we start other than King James? Just when we thought he had fully arrived after the Boston and Chicago series he follows it up with a complete mental breakdown on the biggest stage of his career. (I must say that I had originally planned to do a column after the Chicago series saying how LeBron had finally arrived and was playing the way we all had envisioned him playing for so long…I’m glad that I didn’t have the time to write that post with how silly it would look just two weeks later!) Make no mistake - that was no choke job by LeBron. He wasn’t bricking foul shots or missing layups. He wasn’t throwing terrible passes or missing rebounds. He simply did not show up mentally following the game two loss for reasons that none of us can understand. Why did he stop attacking the basket? Why did his suffocating defense disappear? What in the world was going through his mind? Whatever it was, it was probably the same “thing” that pushed James into teaming up with Dwayne Wade in Miami in the first place. Whether it is a lack of a killer instinct, an unusual level of self-doubt that we typically do not see with players of his magnitude, or something else that none of us can put our fingers on, it is obvious that eight years into the NBA LeBron still does not have that “it” factor. Will he get there? I don’t know. My guess is that his talent alone will lead him to at least 2 or 3 championships and we will forget about many of these indiscretions. (It will be much the same way that we forget how badly Michael Jordan was criticized, called a gunner and how he couldn’t win the big one before he won his first title. That just sounds silly knowing what we know now.) At this point, however, I think we are close to realizing that he will never reach the absolute peak that his physical abilities call for because of something missing inside.

- Can somebody please explain to me what Cam Newton has that Terrelle Pryor doesn’t? Even if you consider Newton the better prospect, it cannot be the difference between the 1st overall pick in the draft and a 4th or 5th rounder as the reports are saying Pryor will go in the supplemental draft. Personally, I think both have a long way to go to be even a reasonably decent starting quarterback in the NFL and there is a good chance that neither amounts to much at that position. Both, however, have the same incredible upside with their tremendous physical abilities. Heck, I would even guess that as an athlete Pryor will grade out better than Newton. Just weird to me that some teams would value Newton’s upside to be that much more than Pryor’s despite the fact that it was Pryor who was a 3-year starter playing in a pro-style offense and not Newton. I will have much more on Pryor in Friday’s post.

- Game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight and what a crazy series it has been. Vancouver has squeaked out three 1-goal wins at home while losing the three games in Boston by a combined score of 17-3. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s goalie, has looked like two different players at home and on the road while Boston has reached this point on the back of its own net minder, Tim Thomas. I like the Canucks to win a close one tonight. You win games like these on the backs of your superstars (hey Penguins fans, Max Talbot is THE SUPERSTAR right?) and the Canucks have more of those players than the Bruins. Either way, I am sure looking forward to the game tonight. Nothing in sports is better than a game seven, and maybe no game sevens match the intensity and excitement of those in hockey.

- Major League baseball is over 40% of the way through its season and the lack of storylines continues to be a trend. Derek Jeter is now on the DL postponing his 3,000 hits bid, which was inevitable anyways. Almost every team in baseball is still alive for the postseason. There are a few players, Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson come to mind, having fantastic seasons but nobody who is doing something that approaches historical. Scoring continues to be down and there are more pitchers having good years but again, none are doing anything historic. The teams we thought would be good, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, etc. are good and outside of the Twins and Indians, the season has gone pretty much as expected. Really, the biggest story in baseball is the hometown Buccos and their quest to end the streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons. As we sit today, the Pirates are 33-33 and only 4 games out of the division lead. If the Pirates can continue to play at or around .500 I suspect the story will continue to pick up steam nationally.

- Speaking of the Pirates, it will be interesting to see what management does as the trade deadline approaches if they continue to hover around .500 and stay somewhat in contention. From a team building prospective, they should still be in “sell” mode but a run at .500 in August and September, especially if there is no football going on, would be a tremendous financial opportunity for the club and that is part of management’s job as well. I will have a lot more on this next week and my thoughts on what I think the Pirates should do if they continue to play good baseball into mid July.

- Pitt and Penn State have agreed to renew their rivalry on the football field starting in 2016. I know this is a big deal for the alumni bases but sorry, I can’t get excited over a football game five years from now. It is ridiculous that this game has not been played in over ten years and even when it resumes, it will lack the tradition and history the rivalry should have.

- College football is covered in scandal. The NFL is in danger of missing a portion or all of its upcoming season due to labor negotiations. The NBA and NHL have never been more popular. Is this the beginning of the end for football as America’s favorite sport? Probably not, and I suspect that the NFL and the Player’s Association will work something out in time because there is too much money to be lost but with a game that violent and that popular I think it is only a matter of time before the popularity decline begins.

- From my standpoint, the labor negotiations have been this year’s version of the Brett Favre comeback story as the most heavily covered story by the media that the general population doesn’t really care about. Most people could care less about how the two sides split up the $10 billion pie (despite the posturing by the player’s association and the owners blaming the other one) and really only care about whether there will be a season or not. I have kept an eye on the negotiations and court rulings from a general business interest but boy do I get annoyed when I have to listen to the daily updates on Sportscenter or on Mike and Mike when they are talking labor negotiations in mid-May. Despite being force-fed coverage of the lockout for the past four months, it will only be in the next couple of months when the pressure to get a deal done really picks up as fans start to become worried about a season actually being missed and players and owners alike realize that there may not be checks coming in the very near future.

Recapping the Draft (Round 1)

You may have noticed that I have not talked much about the NFL on the blog lately and for good reason. It is impossible to talk about the NFL without getting into the current labor dispute and quite frankly, I don’t care about it. We are talking about billionaires, multi-millionaires and millionaires fighting over how to split up a $9 billion revenue pie while playing in publicly funded stadiums and charging ridiculous prices to fans all while being protected by antitrust laws that go against every business principle the United States was founded upon. See, I had to go there didn’t I?!?

Both the owners and players have a ton to lose by going through the legal system (the NFL is already learning this the hard way) and by September this will be much ado about nothing. The season will go on, there’s about $9 billion reasons why after the NFL lost its case trying to collect from the TV networks during the lockout, and by the second or third week of the season we will have all forgot about this dumb lockout.

To be honest, I have actually enjoyed the relatively little news coming from the NFL this offseason. It allowed fans everywhere to enjoy other sports without enduring the latest Brett Favre comeback update or veteran, crappy linebacker A signed with non-playoff team B, or whatever stories and rumors that usually get gobbled up by the millions of intense football fans around the country. It is now the end of April, however, and the NFL Draft is upon us. March Madness is over, the NBA and NHL playoffs are nearing their midpoint and training camp is just a little over two months away. It is time to start talking some football again.

So let’s quit talking about the off-field activity and dive into the draft. Last year I spent a ton of time putting together a mock draft and while I enjoyed doing it and got a lot of positive feedback on the piece, I realized once the draft began how largely worthless it became. This year, with no free agency and teams still having lots of line-up needs as a result, it seemed senseless to put together a mock draft when there were just so many possibilities for every team. Besides, there are a million mock drafts out there on the internet and each one is more wrong than the last. So this year I decided to do a recap on the draft, pick-by-pick, and let you know what I thought about last night’s 1st round proceedings. This format should provide some insight on each player, each team and really provide a general overview of the NFL as we head into next season. That is the hope anyways…so here we go!

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB Auburn – Say what you want about Newton but the guy has a tremendous upside. He may be a longshot to reach that upside, and there is probably no middle ground with him, but I would still rather take that chance than draft one of the other QBs from the remainder of this, in my opinion, awful QB class. Would I have taken Newton 1st overall? Heck no, mostly because the price attached to taking such a risk. But I haven’t had the benefit that the Panthers did in researching, interviewing and studying Newton on and off the field. The Panthers also have the benefit of a strong running game and a new coach that should allow him to ease into the position. The key for the Panthers will be to build an offense around his strengths.

2. Denver Broncos – Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M – Miller is a tremendous physical specimen and a fantastic pass rusher from the outside but this pick puzzled me a bit. Most thought Miller was more of a prototypical 4-3 defensive end who could get after the QB. The Broncos are switching to a 3-4 defense this year and already have a star player in Elvis Dumervil who fits the role of edge rusher from the outside linebacker position, the position most assume Miller will play as well. John Elway may have gone with the best player available approach, a strategy I usually agree with, but in this instance I think Marcell Dareus made more since. One thing is for sure, however, and that is the Broncos desire to get after the quarterback this year on the defensive side of the ball.

3. Buffalo Bills – Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama – Speaking of Dareus, it didn’t take long for the Bills to snatch him up after Denver passed. The Bills have a ton of holes on both sides of the ball but they address their biggest concern with Dareus and that is improving the league’s worst defense against the run last year.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR Georgia – Green was the best player in this draft in my opinion. He is fast, runs good patterns, catches everything and can run after the catch. With TO moving on and Ochocinco most likely doing the same, the Bengals can begin to build their new-look offense around Green. The question now becomes who will be the guy to get him the ball? Rumors have the Bengals trying to move up to draft TCU QB Andy Dalton in the 2nd round. I doubt he is the answer but is worth the risk of a second round pick if they do not have to give up too much.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Peterson, CB LSU – Great pick by the Cardinals here. They did not particularly need to address a mediocre secondary but did so by getting the best defensive player and best athlete in the draft. Peterson should be able to immediately bolster the Cardinals pass defense and will most likely make a splash in their return game as well. If the Cards can acquire a veteran QB to get the ball out to Fitzgerald they could quickly become the frontrunners in the NFC West again.

6. Atlanta Falcons – Julio Jones, WR Alabama – The Falcons certainly wanted a premier WR to put opposite of Roddy White, that’s for sure. The Falcons gave up a ton to move up 21 spots and take Jones, a physical WR who is great in run and catch situations and should be a great compliment to White. I like the move by the Falcons who need quality at this point of their team building, not quantity, and Jones could be the player needed to push them over the hump in the NFC. For Cleveland, I thought the trade was fantastic. The Browns have a ton of holes to fill and picking up a 2nd and 4th rounder this year and a 1st and 4th next year in addition to the 27th pick and the Brownies could easily have shortened their rebuilding project by a substantial margin.

7. San Francisco 49ers – Aldon Smith, DE Missouri – Jim Harbaugh is the coach closest to the college game having coached at Stanford last year and Harbaugh agrees with me that no QB in this class should be labeled a “franchise” guy. Desperate for a franchise QB, the Niners passed on the position to take Smith, a guy that I did not particularly like in this spot. Smith is a guy who can get after the quarterback and that is what they were targeting but I thought there were a number of better players on the board at this point. Maybe Harbaugh is trying to tank this year with Alex Smith at QB so he can land his protégé Andrew Luck in next year’s draft.

8. Tennessee Titans – Jake Locker, QB Washington – Terrible reach #1 on the night and a special thank you from all other AFC South fans to Jeff Fisher for stepping down as coach. I guess all you need to be considered a franchise quarterback in the minds of NFL personnel at this point is to “elevate” your program to a 6-6 record and an appearance in some crappy bowl game in your fourth year as the starter.

Quick tangent: Does Jon Gruden ever say anything negative? Check that, does he ever say anything negative about players or teams that he might want to coach for at some point in the future? Seriously, I never hear Gruden criticize a player or team and every time I hear his analysis I wonder how that guy was ever a good coach. He really is the next coming of John Madden. I mention him here because he was profusely defending Locker as a quarterback. After Kiper hit him with all the statistical reasons that Locker was a bum, including his extremely low completion percentage, Gruden threw this gem at him, “You guys can have your stats. He threw the ball away 66 times last year.”

9. Dallas Cowboys, Tyron Smith, OT USC – Very solid pick from the Cowboys here who needed to beef up their protection for Tony Romo. Smith is a phenomenal athlete for a tackle but probably has to put on a few pounds to be a true impact player at the left tackle position. Still, Smith is a very good player that addresses a big area of need for the Cowboys and he should be able to come in and contribute right away.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri – I am not sure what to make of this pick. I guess I like Gabbert more than any other QB in this class besides Newton and at number 10 he’s not a terrible value but the Jaguars did have to give up their second round pick to get him. My best guess is that Gabbert becomes no better of a pro than the Jags’ current QB, David Garrard. Still, not a bad risk at this point since the Missouri product does have the size, arm and athleticism to be a very good NFL quarterback.

11. Houston Texans – J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin – Watt was a good player in college and will be a good player in the NFL. Nothing exciting about this pick but it was a good one for Houston as Watt is a good fit to play defensive end as the Texans transition to the 3-4 defense.

12. Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder, QB Florida St. – Terrible reach #2 on the evening! I am not even sure Ponder was the best QB on his FSU team last year. For a team that is probably not that far removed from Super Bowl contention, I really do not understand this pick. Maybe the plan is to still bring in a veteran quarterback and allow Ponder to grow under that guy but I still don’t see a very high upside for this kid. Any of the following three picks would have made a whole lot more sense to me for Minnesota.

13. Detroit Lions – Nick Fairley, DT Auburn – Wow, the Lions had to be extremely pleased to see Fairley on the board this late despite the defensive line already being an area of strength for the team. When the draft process began, you know when the actual football games were being played, Fairley was heavily considered the best player in the draft. The questions surrounding Fairley’s work ethic and motor should be moot as he plays next to Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch, two relentless workers and great leaders. The Lions’ defensive line has the chance to be one of the best individual units in football next year with Fairley’s addition.

14. St. Louis Rams – Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina – Another tremendous value pick here for the Rams. Quinn did not play last year because of suspension but if he had many figured him to have been a possible top 5 pick. The Rams did not particularly need a defensive end but with the addition of Quinn on the opposite side of Chris Long the Rams, much like the Lions, could be tremendous up front on the defensive side of the football.

15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey, OC Florida – From all of the reading I did leading up to the draft it doesn’t sound like Maurkice’s little brother would have went this high if he had a different last name. That being said, the other Pouncey is a good prospect and fills a position of need for the Miami Dolphins as they try to improve the interior of their offensive line. Pouncey’s ability to play center or guard should also allow the Dolphins some flexibility on how they construct that o-line.

16. Washington Redskins – Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue – Kerrigan was a tremendously productive player as a defensive end in college but will switch to OLB in the 3-4 for the Redskins. I suspect Kerrigan will be a good player for the Redskins but will probably never be elite. For a team with a lot of holes though, he is more of a sure thing and a good pick.

17. New England Patriots – Nate Solder, OT Colorado – For the way scouts talked about Solder and cornerback Jimmy Smith from Colorado it makes you wonder why the Buffaloes were so terrible. Solder is a solid pick for the Patriots as they try to rebuild an aging offensive line and should provide some flexibility with his ability to play both left and right tackle. The Patriots biggest concern going forward should be how to keep Tom Brady standing up.

18. San Diego Chargers – Corey Liuget, DT Illinois – Another reach for me, although this was an area of need for the Chargers as Liuget will most likely play defensive end in the Chargers scheme. Liuget was a productive player in college but never stood out for me as a star. He has a nonstop motor and should be a decent player for the Chargers, although I’m not sure decent is the goal for a first round pick.

19. New York Giants - Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska - With a number of teams seemingly reaching for quarterbacks or other positions a few others were able to take great advantage. The Giants were one of those landing Amukamara, who many had rated as a top 10 talent. Both Giants’ starting corners are free agents after the 2011 season so Prince gives the Giants insurance in case one should bolt and playing in the NFC East a team can never have enough corners anyhow. Tremendous pick here for the G-Men.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa – Another Big Ten defensive lineman, the fourth (and third defensive end) in the last ten picks. Clayborn is a playmaker despite suffering from a disease that effects the use of his right arm and should fit in nicely at defensive end for Tampa’s Cover 2 scheme.

21. Cleveland Browns – Phil Taylor, DT Baylor – The Browns gave up a third round pick to the Chiefs to move up six spots and select Taylor, the best pure nose tackle in the draft. In what seems to be a theme around the league the Browns look like they are also moving towards a 3-4 defensive scheme. Taylor is a big, nasty, in the trenches type of player who should be a good fit anchoring the Browns defensive line.

22. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College – Much like the Patriots, the Colts primary goal going forward has to be keeping Peyton Manning on his feet. Castonzo is a polished prospect that will most likely come in and start right away.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Danny Watkins, OG Baylor – Typical Eagles pick here and a good one. Watkins is 26-years-old after spending a few years away from football so he is more mature than your typical rookie and he should come in and start right away. Nobody drafts up front better than Andy Reid and company and I see no reason why this pick should be any different. The Eagles also need a corner but my guess is that they are heavily involved in the Nnamdi Asomugha bidding war whenever the free agency period starts.

24. New Orleans Saints – Cameron Jordan, DE California – Jordan fills a critical need for the Saints at defensive end and will be counted on to provide pressure on opposing QBs. We know the Saints are set on the offensive side of the ball and Jordan should help where it is needed most.

25. Seattle Seahawks – James Carpenter, OG Alabama – This is not the flashy pick that many expected from the Seahawks but it is a good pick and should help sure up the Hawks’ offensive line. Seattle is probably in the market for a quarterback somewhere in the draft and can probably pick up a Ryan Mallett, Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick in the second round, all guys who offer as much upside (or downside) as the guys who went much, much earlier.

26. Kansas City Chiefs – Jonathan Baldwin, WR Pitt – This is where the weirdness started as the Bears and Ravens are reported to have had a trade in place and the Bears never called into the league offices to confirm. Time elapsed and the Ravens were skipped by the Chiefs for the 26th pick where they took the Pitt wide out. Baldwin has some question marks surrounding him but he is a tremendous athlete, big and has great ball skills. He should fit in well across from Dwayne Bowe as the Chiefs deep-ball threat, if Cassel can throw the ball far enough that is.

27. Baltimore Ravens – Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado – The Ravens were probably a little perturbed at the Bears with the botched trade as I am guessing they could have still landed Smith with the 29th selection and picked up a fourth rounder in the process but at least they still landed their guy. Many consider Smith the second best corner in this draft behind Peterson and the only reason he slipped was character concerns. I am not as high on Smith but for the 27th pick it is hard to argue with the value and the Ravens were desperate for corner help.

28. New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram, RB Alabama – The Patriots traded back in the draft to pick up extra picks? No way! I do like the deal on both ends, however, as the Patriots pick up an extra first rounder next year while sliding back about 28 spots while the Saints land their heir apparent at running back. Ingram’s versatility and ability to catch the ball will be a perfect fit in Sean Payton’s attack and probably signals the end of the Reggie Bush era in ‘Nawlins.

29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin – The Bears gave up 56 sacks last year and despite Mike Martz’ scheme and Jay Cutler’s propensity to hold on to the ball too long, an upgrade on the offensive line was needed. Carimi should be a good player at right tackle for the Bears and fills their biggest need along the offensive line. He probably won’t be a pro-bowler but he should be a good player in this league for a long time.

30. New York Jets - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE Temple – The Jets had to be thrilled to land Wilkerson this late in the first round and the Temple product will be expected to come in and provide help on the Jets’ aging defensive line immediately. The Jets, Steelers and Packers all got great values at the end of the first round due to so many reaches above them. It is no wonder that the same teams are competing for championships year in and year out.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St. – Ironhead Heyward’s son is an incredible fit for the Steelers and a real find at the end of the first round. Heyward was an extremely productive player and often the star on the Buckeyes defense in his four years in Columbus and is the prototype to play defensive end in the 3-4. This may signal, however, that the Steelers do not expect much from the return of Aaron Smith. If Smith does return, the Steelers have a pretty scary two-deep rotation for the next year or two on the defensive line and have their anchors at defensive end in Ziggy Hood and Heyward for years to come. Now the Steelers must address their depth at corner and on the offensive line in the next couple of rounds.

32. Green Bay Packers – Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State – The Packers, much like the Steelers, do not have many holes to fill as they are fresh off their Super Bowl title and have 16 guys returning from injured reserve. One place they did need to sure up, and begin planning for the future, was on the offensive line. The Pack did that with Sherrod who, along with their first round pick last year in Brian Bulaga, could form the bookends for the Packers’ offensive line for the next decade.

Changing of the Guard?

There are going to be thousands of articles, stories and features covering pretty much every angle of the Super Bowl in the next two weeks that I would rather leave to others. There is one subject that I want to touch on before taking the next week to catch up on other things happening around the sports world before diving into the Super Bowl coverage full throttle next week. That subject is one that I enjoy talking about the most in sports - the quarterback position. In particular, are we seeing a changing of the guard at the top of the NFL’s pecking order?

Sure, Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl just a year ago and Tom Brady just completed what is soon to be another MVP season, but Manning and Brady will be 35 and 34-years-old, respectively, when the season begins next year (I guess at this point we need to start saying IF THE SEASON BEGINS NEXT YEAR). Clearly each has a few great years left in him and if Brett Favre is an example with his career year at the age of 40, maybe even another five or six years of very productive football left. Needless to say, however, both have seen their youth and, most likely, the peak of their physical abilities in the rear-view mirror.

Tom Brady and his Patriots have lost their last three postseason contests, including two of those at home. Peyton Manning owns a career losing record in the playoffs, also suffering defeat in his last two outings. Both have time to add to their unbelievable legacies, and the race to be called to the greatest of all time is still on, but the windows for these all time greats could perhaps be starting to narrow. The Colts look like a team that needs a good amount of roster work to get back to their Super Bowl level of last year. Meanwhile, while it is true that the Patriots look very well positioned for the future, let’s not forget that Brady is already working on one surgically repaired knee and as the Jets playoff game showed, he can be a sitting duck in the pocket.

I am in no way trying to minimize the accomplishments of two, if not the two, greatest quarterbacks of all time. Words don’t do justice to the greatness of the two quarterbacks, and as of today I would consider each of their teams to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites for next year because of them. I am simply stating that we may finally be seeing a changing of the guard as the premier NFL QBs of today. To illustrate…

Ben Roethlisberger is not yet 29 and Aaron Rodgers just recently turned 27. Both are just entering what has become the historical peak years for a quarterback of 28-34 years old, and in Rodgers case he has not even hit that magic number yet.

I have long maintained that Roethlisberger would be #3 on my list of top NFL quarterbacks and it may now be time to start including him in the conversation with Manning and Brady. In seven years, Roethlisberger has now won two Super Bowls with a chance at a third, been to four AFC Championships, is the owner of a 10-2 career postseason record, a 69-29 regular season record and a career passer rating of 92.5, good for 8th all-time. Did I mention that he is only entering what are believed to be a quarterback’s peak years? Did I mention that stats only tell half of the story with Roethlisberger, a guy who keeps plays alive with his legs and always seems to elevate his play when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 19 comeback victories including his best comeback in Super Bowl XLIII?

As for Rodgers, it is still entirely too early to put him on the level of Manning, Brady or even Roethlisberger at this point historically, but it is becoming harder and harder not to recognize the Hall of Fame talent he is working with. On top of that career passer rating list sits Rodgers at 98.4, ahead of legendary names like Young, Montana, Marino and the aforementioned three greats of today. Rodgers play this postseason has been nothing short of greatness and that play, combined with last year’s performance in the shootout loss to the Cardinals, has Rodgers on top of the career postseason passer rating list as well. Rodgers has a long way to go historically to be mentioned in the same breath as Manning and Brady, but it is almost impossible to argue that he is not playing on the same level as those guys today.

In today’s modern era, with linebackers and defensive ends running 4.5 second forty-yard-dashes and defensive schemes becoming ever more complex, it has become almost essential for quarterbacks to make plays with their legs, both running the football and getting outside the pocket to make plays down the field with their arms. No one performs this aspect of the position better than Roethlisberger and Rodgers, not even Michael Vick who is more of a runner than a scrambler. What Brady and Manning have on the young guns in terms of reading defenses and quick releases, Rodgers and Big Ben more than make up for with their play-making abilities. I mention this only as further proof that it is possible a changing of the guard is taking place. We watched Manning and Brady being hit play after play against the Jets who knew where they would be in the pocket, then watched as Roethlisberger made the two biggest plays of the second half by avoiding rushes and getting outside of the pocket. As this era continues to progress, it will become more essential for quarterbacks to have this escape ability, and both Rodgers and Roethlisberger excel in this regard.

At the end of the day, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and are still probably the best two quarterbacks of today. The day is coming, however, that will not be the case and my guess is that this Super Bowl is a preview as to who their two replacements will be as we carry on the argument for the NFL’s best quarterback.

Conference Championship Picks

I am going to keep this short and sweet as I know there are only about one million and four different articles, game match-ups and feature stories on the AFC and NFC Championship games that have been written this week. What I can promise you is that there is going to be at least one convincing win this weekend. I say this because every year since 2002 one of the two conference championship games has been decided by two scores or more and in four of those eight years both games have been one-sided. The last four years, however, has seen one convincing victory and one close game decided by seven points or less. I think this trend continues and we see one lopsided victory and one close game. Here are the picks…

New York at Pittsburgh (-3)

Haven’t we been here before? Sanchez is being praised for going on the road and knocking off two supposedly superior teams. Rex Ryan is a defensive genius and Darrelle Revis is the best cornerback in the league. Well that last sentence is true, but this has all the feelings of last year’s AFC Championship Game when the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning ended the Jets’ Super Bowl dreams. Ben Roethlisberger is going to make plays with his feet unlike Manning and Brady were capable of the past two weeks and the Jets defense is going to be pressured in a way they haven’t seen all year. I expect big plays from both the offense and defense in a fairly convincing Steelers victory. Pick: Steelers (-3.5).

Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago

Well if you read the opening paragraph you can probably guess that I think this is going to be a close game. I love Aaron Rodgers, I love the Packers’ offensive weapons and I love that attacking defense, but going on the road against a very good to great Bears defense, playing on terrible field conditions and facing a team that feels like it is us against the world is going to be an awfully difficult task for the Packers. I think this game comes down to the fourth quarter, and I think it is decided by one score. The difference, however, will be Rodgers. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter I have trust in the Packers QB to make a play while I have no such confidence in Jay Cutler. I wish the line in this one was three, but I am going to stick by Green Bay and hope they pull this one out by a touchdown. Pick: Packers (-3.5).

Ten Observations from the Divisional Round

1. I have been to pretty much every Steelers home playoff game since 1995 and certainly every one with the exception of maybe one or two since Heinz Field opened and I can say without a doubt that was the best home crowd in Heinz Field’s history. I don’t know if it was the extra 3,000 seats that were added, or if those seats helped to hold some of the noise in on the open end, or the fact those bleachers made everyone sit in their own seats instead of hanging out under the scoreboard, or maybe even just the shell-shock of being down 21-7 at halftime that made everyone explode in that second half, but that was the loudest I have ever heard Heinz Field. It was probably the third best playoff game I have attended behind the two AFC championship game wins, which are altogether different.

2. The difference, as I and many expected, was Ben Roethlisberger once again. That 58 yard bomb to Antonio Brown on 3rd and 19 was an absolute thing of beauty.

3. Gun to my head and I had to win a football game tomorrow, I would still choose Manning, Brady and Roethlisberger in that order, but I would have to think awfully hard about Aaron Rodgers at this point. He’s playing as well as any of those guys right now and is just oozing with ability and confidence.

4. Between celebrating the Steelers win, getting some dinner and getting over to the bar I was not able to see all of the Packers-Falcons game. I think some of the Falcons players probably feel the same way…

5. It was interesting to see what happened to the Bears defense in the fourth quarter on Sunday. Should we ignore Matt Hasselbeck carving up the secondary, chalk it up to the big lead and taking the foot off the pedal or was it showing us something more that we could see Rodgers taking advantage of this week?

6. Jay Cutler won his first postseason game since high school…and you were wondering why the Packers are three point road favorites?

7. As great as Tom Brady is, and he should be in everyone’s top five QBs of all time at the minimum, can anyone think of the great comebacks he has had? I know there have been a few, but it just doesn’t seem like he brings his team back the way you always expect Manning or Roethlisberger to do. Brady seems to either have it or not (and almost always he does), but when he doesn’t he usually doesn’t recover. That is three straight playoff losses for Brady and Belichick by the way.

8. Even the best coach in the world screws up sometimes. Trailing by ten, the Patriots should have kicked a field goal when they reached the Jets 18 yard line or so. If they would have spiked the ball after Gronkowski’s first down catch and immediately kicked the field goal, they would have been trailing by seven with over two and a half minutes to go. The Patriots could have then kicked off deep and potentially held the Jets to a punt following the two minute warning. Instead, the Patriots ran three more plays, wasted the two minute warning and settled for a field goal anyways forcing their hand with an onside kick. I am not saying this after the fact either; I was telling everyone I was with that they should kick right then as it happened. It never ceases to amaze me how often these coaches screw up these situations.

9. The conference championship games will feature Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago and New York…four of the top six defenses in the league in terms of scoring and four of the top nine in yardage. Who says defense doesn’t win championships?!?

10. Mark Sanchez is getting a ton of credit for his performance Sunday, and deservedly so, but if you are a Steelers fan I don’t think you could have asked for a better situation in the AFC Championship game. Sanchez was terrible against the Colts, looked pretty bad in the first few possessions against the Patriots until he hit a couple of big plays, and really struggles against the blitz. The Jets should not be able to run the football putting everything on Sanchez’ shoulders. That should make Steelers fans feel pretty good inside.