Major League Baseball Preview Chat (Part I)

I thought there would be no better way to preview all things Major League Baseball than to bring my two friends, Tom and Curt, into a discussion. Tom and Curt enjoy baseball as much as anyone I know. They follow all of the statistical trends, know the minor league reports and follow all thirty teams as closely as the paid professionals. We will talk Pirates, the Central Division, division winners, wildcards, World Series predictions, breakout players, rookies to watch and fantasy sleepers and busts. Basically, we are going to talk about everything involved with Major League Baseball. Without further ado, grab your hat, your glove and your bat and let’s kick off this marathon chat of all things baseball:

(Editor’s note I, and by editor I mean me: This is a two-part series, click here to check out Part II of our baseball preview!)

(Editor’s note II: This was a fast moving conversation that touched on a ton of subjects. Spare us a few typos or broken English, I tried my best to clean it up. Hope you enjoy!)

Me: Ok Guys, first off, thanks for joining me! I hope you guys enjoy this as much I know I will. Let's get started right away with your thoughts on the Pirates. I predicted a couple of weeks ago that they would finish 74-88. I have seen nothing in spring training that has led me to improve that prediction. What do you guys see?

Curt: Funny, I just told someone 73 for a pool this morning. Division stinks.

Tom: I don't see 73 wins for the Pirates with only 2.5 players that could even play on the Yankees. McCutchen is without question better than Nate McLouth, but that addition is more than offset by the step down at multiple positions. Unless Garrett Jones is actually Babe Ruth, I don't see 73 or 74 wins.

Curt: It is more of an anti central prediction. Anyone not named the Cards can lose 90+ no problem.

Tom: The Cardinals are good. The Cubs will take a couple steps back as most of the team is on the wrong side of 30. Milwaukee again is loaded, although losing Mike Cameron and replacing him with Carlos Gomez is going to hurt more than they anticipate. The Reds are improved on last season's finish. The only place they can make up wins is on the atrocious sans-Berkman Astros. And that isn't enough to make up 10+ wins.

Curt: 2nd will be better, SS worse, what other positions? 1st is a big downgrade almost certainly, 1st or RF I guess I should say, wherever Garrett Jones does not play. Catcher will be better with a healthy Ryan Doumit.

Tom: Garret Jones is a downgrade on his performance last season, almost assuredly

Curt: For sure, Doumit is not OPS 600 again though, I don't think.

Me: Well, Tom touched on it a little, how do you guys see the Central Division finishing?

Tom: In my non-homer vision...

Me: Tom is a big Reds fan, full-disclosure!

Tom: The Cardinals at 90+wins. Brewers, Reds, Cubs all battling right around .500. The entire Astros season hinges on the health of Lance Berkman. His bat just isn't replaceable and he's had his knee scoped and it hasn't reacted positively. He still has significant pain with minor activity. He isn't there yet, but "microfracture surgery" is being thrown about.

Curt: 1. Cards 2. Brewers 3. Reds 4. Cubs 5. Bucs 6. Astros

Curt: Lineup is not that good with him in it. They are headed for major trouble.

Me: I think I see the Cards way out in front as well, and agree the Brew Crew, Reds and Cubs all fall somewhere in the 78-82 win range with Houston and Pittsburgh battling it out to stay out of the cellar.

Me: The Pirates are obviously going to struggle to score runs with such little power in the line-up. This spring has just proven that train of thought further. John Russell has said he is going to bat the pitcher 8th this year. I know statistically that this is supposed to produce more runs, but it goes against much of the conventional baseball wisdom. What do you guys think of this move for the Pirates?

Curt: It’s clearly great. This team has one really good player (Andrew McCutchen).

Tom: Batting the pitcher 8th adds about 10-15 runs over the course of the season. The Pirates need all the help they can get to make 700 runs.

Curt: They are maximizing his AB's with Aki leading off followed by Cutch and P batting 8th.

Tom: Lineup construction in the micro sense is vastly overrated. In the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter a whole bunch, fractions of wins.

Tom: As long as the manager doesn't do absolutely crazy things like lead-off Corey Patterson or something. (Me: Another Reds reference from Tom, referring to Patterson’s horrible on base percentage.) But the fans certainly like to complain about it. It is something they can see every day and easily augment.

Me: I couldn’t agree more, it’s really nice to see the Pirates thinking outside of the box and using more modern methods of evaluating talent, line-up construction, etc.

Me: Speaking of which, and before we dive into the rest of our topics, what do you guys think, or more specifically, how do you value, the new defensive metrics that are out there?

Curt: Important but overrated. Pirates did not win the Bay trade because Andy LaRoche can field 3rd base for example.

Tom: The teams have far more advanced fielding metrics than publicly available to fans. This is evident from the path of the more statistically advanced teams out there. The A's have changed their roster completely emphasizing speed and defense. The Red Sox went out and signed the best free agent defenders at CF, SS and 3B. That isn't a coincidence.

Curt: You have Boston winning the East? I don't. How about Seattle? It’s good to know who is good but what is it worth?

Me: Do you think teams like Seattle and Boston have been able take advantage with these statistics, and could they have done this with pure scouting?

Curt: No way before, a slow guy that gets to zero balls but makes routine plays look like great plays is way devalued now.

Tom: Turning defensive value into a runs number is difficult. They say defense is about half as important as hitting. The best defender will never be more valuable as the best hitter at the position.

Tom: But a market exists where you can "buy" defensive runs cheaper than you can "buy" batting runs. You can do it somewhat with pure scouting, but you have problems quantifying the addition to the team. You may sign a good defender, but without their run value metrics, you don't know how much help/harm you've actually done to the roster.

Curt: Very true. A's have not done anything for a while though. Seattle got better, easy to do when the worst though.

Me: I think the important aspect the public numbers are missing is the speed of the balls in play, more exactly, how hard they are hit. Do you think teams have these numbers in their metrics already? I know they are on the way for public numbers.

Tom: The teams that have invested in their internal stats/scouting departments most assuredly do. Things like Dewan's +/- system attempt to account for speed of balls in play, but those are entirely up to the person scoring the game for Dewan. So there is some subjectivity built into them.

Curt: A BIP (“ball in play”) is a BIP, over 162 games, it evens out, most of the time.

Me: It should be interesting to watch as these defensive metrics become more mainstream and advance over the next few years. It wasn't too long ago that no one spoke of OPS and now it's everyone's go-to stat for offensive production.

Me: Curt mentioned that he doesn't have Boston winning the East, who are your guys division winners and wild cards?

Curt: In AL, Yanks, Twinkies, Angels, BSox as WC. I don't see how the Yanks can lose. The demise of the Angels is overrated, like every year. Nathan is just a closer (referring to the Twins closer Joe Nathan, who was injured for the season in spring training), they have a good pen.

Me: Still sticking by the Angels huh? Seems like the AL West and Central are wide open.

Curt: Until proven otherwise. No confidence in Minny really, toughest call.

Me: I like the Yanks as well, Sox for the Wild Card. I'm going with the White Sox in the Central with the best starting staff and Texas out West.

Curt: White Sox offense should be pretty bad. Asking Quentin to be healthy let alone produce is a pretty tall task IMO.

Me: I think the Rangers are going to score a ton of runs like usual and finally have enough pitching to put them over the top of a weak division.

Curt: Rangers have to be one of the most volatile teams out there.

Me: Yea, White Sox offense leaves something to be desired, but every team has holes in the Central. I think Beckham could be a difference maker for them, and I guess I would be banking on Carlos Quentin's health, probably not a good idea, but I will give it a try.

Tom: Nolan Ryan (Rangers Team President) is on record expecting 92 wins out of his team. Anything less and the firing starts with Ron Washington. They've got a solid roster in Texas, but playing in that park just keeps everyone in the games.

Curt: White Sox will need Rios to be a real baseball player. CJ Wilson (Rangers’ former closer) as a starter, I’ll be the most surprised guy ever if that works.

Tom: I'm not impressed with the White Sox. That central is wide open.

Me: Tom, did you post your predictions in the AL, I don't think they showed up?

Tom: BoSox 97 wins, Twins 89 wins, Rangers 90 wins, Yanks 94 wins, Rays 91 wins on the outside looking in.

Me: Anyone like Seattle's chances? What about Detroit? And possibly the Rays making noise in the East?

Curt: Rays and Boston will be close I think. I think Seattle overachieved last year. Not enough even with Cliff Lee on the staff.

Tom: Detroit needs to figure out their arms. They're going to allow too many runs I think.

Me: King Felix, Lee and possibly Bedard with that defense, I can see why the Mariners are all the "experts" popular pick. I'm not sure they can score enough runs though. Who is going to hit the ball out of the ballpark for the M's?

Tom: Detroit has a ton of volatility in their rotation. Dontrelle Willis, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Jeremy Bonderman all behind Verlander.

Curt: Willis is terrible, starting him could cost them right off the bat.

Tom: All of those guys could go 5.0+ ERA without a problem.

Tom: Seattle did lose Russell Branyan, their only source of power on the team.

Curt: I like Porcello better than the rest of those guys. Not sure on the M's. They need someone to hit. Not give Griffey his farewell tour.

Tom: They've added the Monopoly Man (Milton Bradley), but who knows with that guy.

Curt: Not signing Branyan was dumb.

Tom: Cliff Lee is going to start the season on the DL as well. Any team with Ian Snell as their Opening Day #2 starter is not going to win many games.

Curt: Yea that won't help either. Some guy "Ian Smell" posts on the rumor site all the time. Funny.

Me: So the consensus is Yanks, Red Sox, Twins and Rangers, with a vote for the White Sox and Angels.

Me: Before we flip gears to the NL, the Orioles have assembled a lot of young talent, including everyone in Pittsburgh's favorite catcher, Matt Wieters. What do you think about their prospects over the next few years?

Curt: Still wrong division at the wrong time. I don't see enough coming through at the same time for them.

Tom: They have some good young talent, but it still isn't close to the Rays young talent. And the Rays will struggle to make the Playoffs.

Curt: Orioles better than Toronto this year? I don't think so, myself.

Tom: 10 wins better than Toronto.

Me: I would say yes. Though Toronto still has a lot of young arms. I think they will be a factor again sooner than later.

Tom: Toronto will finish last in the AL, write it down.

Me: Adam Jones, Wieters, Nate Reimold, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, all coming through at the same time. O's owner has proven he will spend, I think they could become a real factor in the next 3-4 years. Rays might not spend enough to really keep up. They will probably lose Crawford following this year.

Tom: He (O’s owner Peter Angelos) couldn't get Teixeira to come home. Crawford is overrated as a LF.

Me: He couldn't get Tex to come home, but was willing to spend the money. Maybe he comes back, well a player of his caliber comes, when they are closer to contending.

Me: Brandon Jennings, is that name correct, is supposed to be the next stud Rays youngster to take over for Crawford correct?

Tom: Rays have seven of the top 100 prospects in baseball and 5 in the top 40. And Desmond Jennings is his name.

Curt: Des Jennings, yes. Looks like Brignac is going north as a utility guy finally. Not very far north I suppose.

Me: Haha yea, seeing as the Rays’ spring training is at their home facility. No fun in that. Reid Brignac is a shortstop prospect, btw, once rumored in some deals with the Pirates.

Tom: Jason Bartlett turned into a real shortstop. That really killed Brignac's career to-date.

Curt: These teams would be better off dealing those guys than having them rot in AAA. See what Wood (referring to Brandon Wood, longtime prospect for the Angels expected to start at third base) does this year finally.

Me: Let's switch gears now and go to the NL. How do you guys see the division winners and wildcard shaking out? I think we are unanimous on the Cards in the Central.

Tom: Cards might have the strongest stranglehold over their division in all of baseball. Give me the Phillies and Rockies, with the Braves taking the WC.

Curt: Rocks, Phills, Cards, then Bravos.

Tom: I got mine in first Curt!

Curt: Braves pulling out all the stops this year looks like. WC won't be from the central we can agree on that.

Tom: This is Bobby Cox's final season. They're going to do whatever they can to win games, as long as it fits with Liberty Media's bottom line.

Curt: I hate the Dodgers, it won't be them anyways.

Me: I think I might stick with the Dodgers in the West. Agree with you guys on the Phils and Braves for East and Wildcard.

Curt: I think SF can be decent and grab it perhaps.

Tom: They're all "decent" out in the west. The D'Backs again could surprise, for the 3rd year in a row. And San Fran has Lincecum.

Me: Curt was referring to the Braves starting sensational outfield prospect Jason Heyward in right field to start the year. He is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball along with Stephen Strasburg. What do you guys make of Heyward?

Tom: I'll feel bad for the kid if people expect him to be Matt Holliday out of the gate. Just making the 25-man roster as a 20-year old position player is amazing in itself. The list of comparables for Heyward is tiny, and probably half of them are in the HOF with Miggy en route.

Me: Do you expect Justin Upton's rookie year when he struggled or Evan Longoria's when he was a star?

Tom: Evan Longoria was 22 and he wasn't “that” great of a hitter his rookie season. Heyward will out produce him if I had to wager on it. “That” in the historical context, not in the year to year context.

Curt: I would look for Justin Upton's 2008 as best case scenerio.

Tom: There are 17 seasons of 20 year old corner outfielders in baseball, Rickey Henderson, Ted Williams, Frank Robinson, and Mel Ott are on the list. Justin Upton is as well. Ty Cobb is also on the list. That's 5 inner-circle baseball HOF out of 17. Miggy (Miguel Cabrera) is on his way and Justin Upton is off to the right start as well.

Me: Wow, some big company to keep for Heyward.

Tom: The threshold for Jason Heyward is simply amazing. But none of those guys hit 50 HR as a rookie, so we have to keep our expectations tempered.

This seems like a great spot for a break. Tom, Curt and The People’s Quarterback will be back tomorrow with our AL and NL award winners, our World Series predictions and some fantasy baseball talk!