After a 2-0 Conference Championship weekend, I am 5-5 heading into the Super Bowl and need the right pick here to have a profitable postseason. Let's cut right to it:
New England (-3) over New York. I could give you a hundred reasons why each team will win this game, and quite frankly after two weeks of build up and Super Bowl coverage on every sports network, you have heard every one of these reasons. I like New England simply because I believe their offensive line can neutralize what is the Giants' biggest strength, their defensive front's ability to put pressure on the QB without blitzing. If the Giants are unable to do this, Tom Brady is going to have a field day with or without Gronkowski. I don't think New England's defense is capable of slowing down Eli and his potent WRs either, at least not for the whole game, so I expect a fair amount of points to be put up but at the end of the day, Brady and Belichick get ring number four. Patriots 31 - Giants 27.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Conference Championship Picks
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND – We cannot dismiss the entire season because of what happened last week. Sure, the Patriots looked unbeatable against Denver and Baltimore struggled to get by Houston, but that doesn't necessarily give us any insight into this week. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots got up early and a couple Joe Flacco interceptions made this game get a bit out of hand. More likely, however, is that a very good Ravens defense, Ray Rice and a team that is 7-0 this year against other playoff teams (New England, by the way, played only 2 playoff teams and lost both games) is able to stay in this game. Ultimately, Tom Brady is the best player on the field and the Patriots escape with a close, hard-fought victory. Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
New York (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Better QB, better weapons on offense and a pass rush that seems almost unblockable give the Giants a big edge in this one. The 49ers have a ton going in their favor, an old-school type team that is playing sensational defense, winning the turnover battle, creating field position with their special teams and has it's QB playing the best football of his career - not to mention home-field advantage. All of those things aren't enough for me to pick against Eli and the more talented team. Giants 27 - 49ers 20
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND – We cannot dismiss the entire season because of what happened last week. Sure, the Patriots looked unbeatable against Denver and Baltimore struggled to get by Houston, but that doesn't necessarily give us any insight into this week. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots got up early and a couple Joe Flacco interceptions made this game get a bit out of hand. More likely, however, is that a very good Ravens defense, Ray Rice and a team that is 7-0 this year against other playoff teams (New England, by the way, played only 2 playoff teams and lost both games) is able to stay in this game. Ultimately, Tom Brady is the best player on the field and the Patriots escape with a close, hard-fought victory. Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
New York (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Better QB, better weapons on offense and a pass rush that seems almost unblockable give the Giants a big edge in this one. The 49ers have a ton going in their favor, an old-school type team that is playing sensational defense, winning the turnover battle, creating field position with their special teams and has it's QB playing the best football of his career - not to mention home-field advantage. All of those things aren't enough for me to pick against Eli and the more talented team. Giants 27 - 49ers 20
Saturday, January 14, 2012
NFL Divisional Round Picks
Well the return of the blog did not get off to the start I wanted last week. After suffering through a miserable Steelers loss and a 1-3 wildcard weekend, the flu put me out of commission for the early part of the week. While my thoughts on most of the sports world will have to wait until next week for now, we'll look to get this week off to a much better start with a big comeback in the NFL Divisional Round!
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New Orleans – At the beginning of the year I picked New Orleans and New England to meet in the Super Bowl and I have to admit that those picks feel pretty good right now. However, this game has all the makings of a San Francisco upset. New Orleans has found it more difficult to score on the road, especially outdoors, where they average only 25.8 points per game versus 35.6 indoors. Moreover, the Saints have really struggled scoring when they have been unable to run the football. Well guess what, New Orleans is on the road, outdoors and will really struggle to run the football against the 49ers' top ranked run defense. Throw in the fact that Sean Payton's coaching, usually a monster advantage in almost every game, is pretty much nullified by Jim Harbaugh and his staff having two full weeks to prepare for this one. I'm not yet ready to give up on my pick of the Saints as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl but I think this one comes down to a last second field goal, and while I am picking the Saints, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the 49ers advance. Saints 27 - 49ers 24
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver – Remember last year when Seattle upset New Orleans at home and everyone wondered if they could do it again on the road the following week in Chicago? Well guess what, Chicago throttled the Seahawks before taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and this one is even more of a mismatch. Throw in the Patriots refusal to ever take their foot off the gas and I can see this one getting ugly. I don't think I really need to go into all of the football details why New England will win this one big. Of course, Tim Tebow is involved (I tried my hardest not to mention him here but it was impossible) and weirder things have happened, but ultimately last week is going to be the highlight of this Broncos season. Patriots 38 - Broncos 20
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston – The case for the Texans is that they can limit Ray Rice, run the football and shorten the game while expecting to capitalize on a Joe Flacco mistake at some point during the game. Could it happen? Sure, but that is a lot of circumstances that need to play out. The way I see it is that the Texans are really going to struggle on offense against the Ravens fantastic rush defense and T.J. Yates will be confused by the Ravens blitzing attack. Joe Flacco probably doesn't need to play well to win but I suspect he will after hearing a ton of criticism leading up to this one. Ultimately, I think we get a game that looks awfully familiar to the one the Ravens won in week 6. Ravens 27 – Texans 10
GREEN BAY(-7.5) over New York Giants – This was by far the hardest of the four games for me to pick because the Giants definitely have the ingredients to make this one close and possibly even pull the monumental upset. Their ability to get after Aaron Rodgers, especially if the Pack's o-line is banged up, on defense and Eli Manning and the Giants very capable passing offense give the G-Men a fighting chance in this one. Much like the 49ers, however, the Packers have had 2 weeks to get healthy and prepare for this one and oh yea, they just happen to be the best team in football since the beginning of last season's playoffs! There's always one wildcard weekend team that gets a little overhyped heading into the second weekend before falling flat on its face and this year I think it could be the Giants. Packers 37 – Giants 24
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New Orleans – At the beginning of the year I picked New Orleans and New England to meet in the Super Bowl and I have to admit that those picks feel pretty good right now. However, this game has all the makings of a San Francisco upset. New Orleans has found it more difficult to score on the road, especially outdoors, where they average only 25.8 points per game versus 35.6 indoors. Moreover, the Saints have really struggled scoring when they have been unable to run the football. Well guess what, New Orleans is on the road, outdoors and will really struggle to run the football against the 49ers' top ranked run defense. Throw in the fact that Sean Payton's coaching, usually a monster advantage in almost every game, is pretty much nullified by Jim Harbaugh and his staff having two full weeks to prepare for this one. I'm not yet ready to give up on my pick of the Saints as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl but I think this one comes down to a last second field goal, and while I am picking the Saints, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the 49ers advance. Saints 27 - 49ers 24
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver – Remember last year when Seattle upset New Orleans at home and everyone wondered if they could do it again on the road the following week in Chicago? Well guess what, Chicago throttled the Seahawks before taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and this one is even more of a mismatch. Throw in the Patriots refusal to ever take their foot off the gas and I can see this one getting ugly. I don't think I really need to go into all of the football details why New England will win this one big. Of course, Tim Tebow is involved (I tried my hardest not to mention him here but it was impossible) and weirder things have happened, but ultimately last week is going to be the highlight of this Broncos season. Patriots 38 - Broncos 20
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston – The case for the Texans is that they can limit Ray Rice, run the football and shorten the game while expecting to capitalize on a Joe Flacco mistake at some point during the game. Could it happen? Sure, but that is a lot of circumstances that need to play out. The way I see it is that the Texans are really going to struggle on offense against the Ravens fantastic rush defense and T.J. Yates will be confused by the Ravens blitzing attack. Joe Flacco probably doesn't need to play well to win but I suspect he will after hearing a ton of criticism leading up to this one. Ultimately, I think we get a game that looks awfully familiar to the one the Ravens won in week 6. Ravens 27 – Texans 10
GREEN BAY(-7.5) over New York Giants – This was by far the hardest of the four games for me to pick because the Giants definitely have the ingredients to make this one close and possibly even pull the monumental upset. Their ability to get after Aaron Rodgers, especially if the Pack's o-line is banged up, on defense and Eli Manning and the Giants very capable passing offense give the G-Men a fighting chance in this one. Much like the 49ers, however, the Packers have had 2 weeks to get healthy and prepare for this one and oh yea, they just happen to be the best team in football since the beginning of last season's playoffs! There's always one wildcard weekend team that gets a little overhyped heading into the second weekend before falling flat on its face and this year I think it could be the Giants. Packers 37 – Giants 24
Saturday, January 7, 2012
The Blog is Back with Wildcard Weekend Picks!
Happy New Year everyone! The Blog is back after an extended layoff and I am excited about getting back into the swing of things. Next week I will launch the full comeback, including thoughts on a ton of subjects that have gone down over the past month or so including the Pirates offseason, Sidney Crosby’s status, the Pitt coaching debacle and subsequent hire, Penn State’s new coach and the struggle that has been the Pitt basketball season so far. In addition, we will soon be up and running with a new Facebook page and twitter account. I will have plenty of details about those in the coming weeks on the blog, but today is all about the NFL playoffs!
It is every gamblers goal to have a perfect NFL postseason, 11-0 against the spread. I accomplished this during the Steelers 2005 Super Bowl run and just like a NFL quarterback will tell you, the first one only makes you want the second one that much more. With that, let’s dive into the Wildcard weekend games:
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cincinnati (+3) over HOUSTON– It’s usually easy money betting against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs but what do you do when both teams are starting a rookie?!? I think that answer is pretty simple, take the guy who has started all year long and hasn’t totally sucked in the past three weeks. T.J. Yates started out playing well for the Texans but was so bad in his past three games that Texans fans seriously debated if Jake Delhomme should be starting this week. If Andre Johnson were completely healthy I may be singing a different tune but Johnson has been a near non-factor since week 4. The Bengals may not win this one outright but I think it’s coming down to the last possession. Take the points and run. Bengals 23 – Texans 21 on a last second field goal.
Detroit (+11) over NEW ORLEANS – The Saints won their previously meeting in New Orleans by 14 but were only leading by 7 in the fourth quarter and the Lions played that game without their madman, Ndamukong Suh. Can the Lions stop the Saints? Of course not, but I think they can slow them down just enough to keep this one interesting. Saints 37 – Lions 27.
NEW YORK (-3) over Atlanta – The Giants are the sleeping giant of the 2012 playoffs. Their Super Bowl winning QB is playing some of the best football of his career, they have very underrated WRs on offense, can get after the passer on defense and have the right mixture of experience and youth that serves well in the playoffs. The Falcons, meanwhile, are pretty much the same team that has been one and done in the playoffs the past two years. I like Matty Ice as a quarterback, I really do. His consistency makes him a guy that can get your team to the playoffs year in and year out. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, that’s about the extent of his talent. Giants 31 – Falcons 20.
Pittsburgh (-9) over DENVER – Despite the loss of Rashard Mendenhall, despite the absence of Maurkice Pouncey and Ryan Clark and despite Ben Roethlisberger hobbling around on one ankle, I don’t see how the Broncos keep this one close without a couple of those “how in the world did that happen” plays that are all too familiar in the NFL. Personally, I love what the Broncos have done with Tebow and their offense over the final 11 games of the season. Can Tebow succeed long-term? I’m not sure yet, he does need to improve as a passer but he is not all that far away from being an extremely dangerous dual-threat quarterback. The question long-term in my opinion will be his ability to stay healthy. But he is not there yet and this week the Broncos could be in big trouble on offense. Steelers 27 – Broncos 6.
It is every gamblers goal to have a perfect NFL postseason, 11-0 against the spread. I accomplished this during the Steelers 2005 Super Bowl run and just like a NFL quarterback will tell you, the first one only makes you want the second one that much more. With that, let’s dive into the Wildcard weekend games:
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cincinnati (+3) over HOUSTON– It’s usually easy money betting against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs but what do you do when both teams are starting a rookie?!? I think that answer is pretty simple, take the guy who has started all year long and hasn’t totally sucked in the past three weeks. T.J. Yates started out playing well for the Texans but was so bad in his past three games that Texans fans seriously debated if Jake Delhomme should be starting this week. If Andre Johnson were completely healthy I may be singing a different tune but Johnson has been a near non-factor since week 4. The Bengals may not win this one outright but I think it’s coming down to the last possession. Take the points and run. Bengals 23 – Texans 21 on a last second field goal.
Detroit (+11) over NEW ORLEANS – The Saints won their previously meeting in New Orleans by 14 but were only leading by 7 in the fourth quarter and the Lions played that game without their madman, Ndamukong Suh. Can the Lions stop the Saints? Of course not, but I think they can slow them down just enough to keep this one interesting. Saints 37 – Lions 27.
NEW YORK (-3) over Atlanta – The Giants are the sleeping giant of the 2012 playoffs. Their Super Bowl winning QB is playing some of the best football of his career, they have very underrated WRs on offense, can get after the passer on defense and have the right mixture of experience and youth that serves well in the playoffs. The Falcons, meanwhile, are pretty much the same team that has been one and done in the playoffs the past two years. I like Matty Ice as a quarterback, I really do. His consistency makes him a guy that can get your team to the playoffs year in and year out. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, that’s about the extent of his talent. Giants 31 – Falcons 20.
Pittsburgh (-9) over DENVER – Despite the loss of Rashard Mendenhall, despite the absence of Maurkice Pouncey and Ryan Clark and despite Ben Roethlisberger hobbling around on one ankle, I don’t see how the Broncos keep this one close without a couple of those “how in the world did that happen” plays that are all too familiar in the NFL. Personally, I love what the Broncos have done with Tebow and their offense over the final 11 games of the season. Can Tebow succeed long-term? I’m not sure yet, he does need to improve as a passer but he is not all that far away from being an extremely dangerous dual-threat quarterback. The question long-term in my opinion will be his ability to stay healthy. But he is not there yet and this week the Broncos could be in big trouble on offense. Steelers 27 – Broncos 6.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Week 7 Quick Picks
CAROLINA (-2.5) over Washington
CLEVELAND (-3) over Seattle
Atlanta (+3.5) over DETROIT
TAMPA BAY (+1) over Chicago (In London)
Houston (+3) over TENNESSEE
NEW YORK JETS (+2) over San Diego
Denver (PK) over MIAMI
Kansas City (+6) over OAKLAND
Pittsburgh (-4) over ARIZONA
DALLAS (-13) over St. Louis
Green Bay (-9) over MINNESOTA
NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Indianapolis
Baltimore (-8.5) over JACKSONVILLE
(Last Week: 4-7-2; Season: 37-48-5)
CLEVELAND (-3) over Seattle
Atlanta (+3.5) over DETROIT
TAMPA BAY (+1) over Chicago (In London)
Houston (+3) over TENNESSEE
NEW YORK JETS (+2) over San Diego
Denver (PK) over MIAMI
Kansas City (+6) over OAKLAND
Pittsburgh (-4) over ARIZONA
DALLAS (-13) over St. Louis
Green Bay (-9) over MINNESOTA
NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Indianapolis
Baltimore (-8.5) over JACKSONVILLE
(Last Week: 4-7-2; Season: 37-48-5)
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Week 6 Picks
The picks have really been struggling the past two weeks and I think it's because I have been over thinking things. Instead of going with what we've seen so far this season and what I thought before the season...I have been thinking things like "the Jets can't possibly be this bad", despite thinking they way were overrated going into the season, or "I thought Detroit was going to be pretty good, but not this good." Well I'm done with that line of thinking...this week's picks are coming from the gut. No over thinking, here we go:
ATLANTA(-4) over Carolina
Indianapolis(+7) over CINCINNATI
DETROIT(-4.5) over San Francisco
St. Louis(+15) over GREEN BAY
NEW YORK GIANTS(-3) over Buffalo
PITTSBURGH(-12) over Jacksonville
Philadelphia(-1.5) over WASHINGTON
Houston(+8) over BALTIMORE
Cleveland(+7) over OAKLAND
New Orleans(-4.5) over TAMPA BAY
Dallas(+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Minnesota(+3) over CHICAGO
NEW YORK JETS(-7) over Miami
Last Week: 4-8-1
Season: 33-41-3
ATLANTA(-4) over Carolina
Indianapolis(+7) over CINCINNATI
DETROIT(-4.5) over San Francisco
St. Louis(+15) over GREEN BAY
NEW YORK GIANTS(-3) over Buffalo
PITTSBURGH(-12) over Jacksonville
Philadelphia(-1.5) over WASHINGTON
Houston(+8) over BALTIMORE
Cleveland(+7) over OAKLAND
New Orleans(-4.5) over TAMPA BAY
Dallas(+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Minnesota(+3) over CHICAGO
NEW YORK JETS(-7) over Miami
Last Week: 4-8-1
Season: 33-41-3
Update: I'm taking the Rangers over the Cardinals in the World Series in six games. I just think the Rangers have a line-up that is deeper than the Cardinals and a starting rotation that is also just a little more complete. The Cards have Prince Albert and Chris Carpenter though, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Cards win in 7 either. Who knows with the way my postseason predictions have gone!
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Good Day to be a Pens Fan
Today was a good day to be a Penguins fan. First, we got to laugh at the Philadelphia Flyers’ fans who decided it was a good idea to boo Sidney Crosby despite the fact he was appearing in an anti-cancer promotion on the Flyers’ jumbo-tron. Then, the actual good news started to pour in:
• At 10:30am, the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reported that the Penguins have signed winger Chris Kunitz to a two-year contract extension that will keep him in a Pens sweater through the 2013-2014 season. The extension calls for an average salary of $3.725 million per season, about the going rate for a 25 goals per year guy. Kunitz has been an excellent addition since being acquired in the 2009 trade that sent defenseman Ryan Whitney to Anaheim and has done mostly good work as a two-way player alongside Sidney Crosby on the team’s top line. I, among many, am excited to see how the Crosby-Kunitz-Neal line performs when Crosby returns to action.
• Around 11am the news broke that captain Sidney Crosby has been cleared for contact in practice. This is the next-to-last step in Crosby’s return from post-concussion symptoms. It was reported that Crosby skated in the Penguins’ morning skate with a regular line and no alternate color helmet that players wear which designates them for no contact. It should not be long now before Crosby returns to game-action, barring no setbacks of course.
• Finally, it was reported that Evgeni Malkin participated fully in the Penguins morning skate and will be a game-time decision for tonight’s game against the Capitals. Even if Malkin is unable to play tonight, the fact that he was a full participant in the morning skate and is seriously considering playing tonight is a big relief for Pens fans who had to be somewhat holding their breath as the team would only classify Malkin’s injury as a “lower-body injury” and that he was “day-to-day”. For a guy who missed most of the previous season with a torn ACL, any lower body injury becomes a concern, especially when the team is reluctant to release further information.
With those three pieces of news coming out today and the season’s first match-up with Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals tonight, it is indeed a good day to be a Penguins fan.
• At 10:30am, the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reported that the Penguins have signed winger Chris Kunitz to a two-year contract extension that will keep him in a Pens sweater through the 2013-2014 season. The extension calls for an average salary of $3.725 million per season, about the going rate for a 25 goals per year guy. Kunitz has been an excellent addition since being acquired in the 2009 trade that sent defenseman Ryan Whitney to Anaheim and has done mostly good work as a two-way player alongside Sidney Crosby on the team’s top line. I, among many, am excited to see how the Crosby-Kunitz-Neal line performs when Crosby returns to action.
• Around 11am the news broke that captain Sidney Crosby has been cleared for contact in practice. This is the next-to-last step in Crosby’s return from post-concussion symptoms. It was reported that Crosby skated in the Penguins’ morning skate with a regular line and no alternate color helmet that players wear which designates them for no contact. It should not be long now before Crosby returns to game-action, barring no setbacks of course.
• Finally, it was reported that Evgeni Malkin participated fully in the Penguins morning skate and will be a game-time decision for tonight’s game against the Capitals. Even if Malkin is unable to play tonight, the fact that he was a full participant in the morning skate and is seriously considering playing tonight is a big relief for Pens fans who had to be somewhat holding their breath as the team would only classify Malkin’s injury as a “lower-body injury” and that he was “day-to-day”. For a guy who missed most of the previous season with a torn ACL, any lower body injury becomes a concern, especially when the team is reluctant to release further information.
With those three pieces of news coming out today and the season’s first match-up with Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals tonight, it is indeed a good day to be a Penguins fan.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
NFL Week 4 and MLB Championship Series Quick Picks
New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA – As well as Cam Newton as played I don’t think he’s ready to keep up with Drew Brees and Co.
Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO – Eventually the Eagles are going to figure things out...I think.
INDIANAPOLIS (-2) over Kansas City – Rumor has it that this game is the reason the NFL created NFL Sunday Ticket!
JACKSONVILLE (+2) over Cincinnati – Jacksonville’s defense is slightly underrated and could be a tough match-up for Andy Dalton. Then again, Cincy’s defense is also slightly underrated and could be tough on Blaine Gabbert. That’s too many words for this game already.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-9.5) over Seattle – In no circumstance can we back Tarvaris Jackson on the road.
MINNESOTA (-3) over Arizona – If McNabb doesn’t find a way to win this one it could be the beginning of the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Tennessee – Not having Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith might just be a good thing as both have struggled early in the season. Not having James Harrison is a different story.
Oakland (+6) over HOUSTON – Can we say letdown game for the Texans? And no Andre Johnson to boot...
Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO – Imagine this one will come down to the wire and the 3 points could come up big here.
San Diego (-4) over DENVER – The Chargers are good, the Broncos are not.
New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND – Too many points here.
ATLANTA (+6.5) over Green Bay – Atlanta should be fired up to revenge their embarrassing loss in the playoffs last year. Plus the Packers can’t go undefeated, can they?
Chicago (+5) over DETROIT – Not taking anything away from the Lions but they have been extremely lucky to win their last two games. This line is about two points too high.
MLB Championship Series Picks
Detroit vs. Texas – Going with my heart instead of my head here despite the Tigers’ game one loss with ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Texas has a much better line-up and a deeper pitching staff but these Tigers just keep finding a way and Jim Leyland keeps pulling all the right strings (aka getting lucky!). Seriously, Don Kelly batting 2nd and he hits a home run! You can’t make these things up. Tigers in seven.
Milwaukee vs. St. Louis – Probably my two least favorite teams in all of baseball. Team arrogant in Milwaukee versus the most arrogant man in baseball in Tony La Russa. Still, you have to appreciate the swagger the Brewers are playing with right now and I have to root for someone. Since Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder helped lead my fantasy baseball team to a championship this year, I’ll go with the Brewers in what is a virtual coin-flip between these two teams. Let’s just hope the postseason continues to be as fantastic as it has been so far. Brewers in seven.
Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO – Eventually the Eagles are going to figure things out...I think.
INDIANAPOLIS (-2) over Kansas City – Rumor has it that this game is the reason the NFL created NFL Sunday Ticket!
JACKSONVILLE (+2) over Cincinnati – Jacksonville’s defense is slightly underrated and could be a tough match-up for Andy Dalton. Then again, Cincy’s defense is also slightly underrated and could be tough on Blaine Gabbert. That’s too many words for this game already.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-9.5) over Seattle – In no circumstance can we back Tarvaris Jackson on the road.
MINNESOTA (-3) over Arizona – If McNabb doesn’t find a way to win this one it could be the beginning of the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Tennessee – Not having Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith might just be a good thing as both have struggled early in the season. Not having James Harrison is a different story.
Oakland (+6) over HOUSTON – Can we say letdown game for the Texans? And no Andre Johnson to boot...
Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO – Imagine this one will come down to the wire and the 3 points could come up big here.
San Diego (-4) over DENVER – The Chargers are good, the Broncos are not.
New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND – Too many points here.
ATLANTA (+6.5) over Green Bay – Atlanta should be fired up to revenge their embarrassing loss in the playoffs last year. Plus the Packers can’t go undefeated, can they?
Chicago (+5) over DETROIT – Not taking anything away from the Lions but they have been extremely lucky to win their last two games. This line is about two points too high.
MLB Championship Series Picks
Detroit vs. Texas – Going with my heart instead of my head here despite the Tigers’ game one loss with ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Texas has a much better line-up and a deeper pitching staff but these Tigers just keep finding a way and Jim Leyland keeps pulling all the right strings (aka getting lucky!). Seriously, Don Kelly batting 2nd and he hits a home run! You can’t make these things up. Tigers in seven.
Milwaukee vs. St. Louis – Probably my two least favorite teams in all of baseball. Team arrogant in Milwaukee versus the most arrogant man in baseball in Tony La Russa. Still, you have to appreciate the swagger the Brewers are playing with right now and I have to root for someone. Since Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder helped lead my fantasy baseball team to a championship this year, I’ll go with the Brewers in what is a virtual coin-flip between these two teams. Let’s just hope the postseason continues to be as fantastic as it has been so far. Brewers in seven.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Ten Questions on the Pens Season
As I write this the Penguins are squaring off with the Vancouver Canucks on opening night of the 2011-2012 NHL Season. Here are ten questions on the upcoming season that I will be following now and as the season progresses.
1. When will Crosby return? Obviously this is question #1 for every Penguins fan but all signs point to Sid not missing a significant part of the season. If Sid misses the first month or less, I expect the Penguins to compete for the top seed in the Eastern Conference and maybe even the top point total in the NHL. If Crosby misses a significant portion of the season, I still expect the Pens to compete for a top four or five seed in the Eastern Conference but the season will start to take on a much different tone with continuing questions about their captain. More important, however, is question number two.
2. Will Crosby remain healthy? I think everyone believes that it is inevitable that Crosby will return at some point and now it is only a matter of when. Nobody, however, knows what will happen when he does return. It’s just my own observation but it seems that those who suffer a concussion either recover quickly and never really have problems with them again or there are those that suffer long-term and lingering effects that result in multiple concussions and careers that are never the same. Guys like Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Eric Lindros and a handful of others were never the same after experiencing lingering symptoms and multiple concussions. I sure hope Crosby returns with no lingering effects, suffers no further damage to his head and goes on to the career that we all expect him to have.
3. How will Evgeni Malkin bounce back from his own injury? Crosby won’t be the only one returning this year from a season ending injury. The Penguins, and maybe the NHL’s, second best player in Malkin returns after missing much of the Pens 2010-2011 season with a torn ACL. Malkin was playing possibly his worst hockey since entering the league before the knee injury ended his season last year. That being said, all indications are that Geno is in the best shape of his career, is more determined than ever before and is poised for a monster season. His preseason sure backed those sentiments and now he must carry that momentum into the regular season and playoffs. With the fantastic depth up and down the line-up that Ray Shero has assembled and with Fleury in net, a healthy Crosby and Malkin make the Penguins the team to beat from where I am sitting.
4. Will Marc-Andre Fleury become an elite goaltender? This question is a bit misleading as most, including myself, already consider Fleury an elite netminder. I’m not sure I would trade him straight up for any other goalie in the league once the playoffs begin. That being said…Fleury’s lackluster statistical regular seasons, both by regular and advanced metric measurements, keeps Fleury from being mentioned with the truly elite goaltenders in the league. I think this is mostly attributed to an absolutely terrible streak that he seems to have every season. Last year you might remember that he got off to an abysmal start. It’s time for Fleury, now 26 years-old, to put together that complete season and begin to get mentioned in that class.
5. Will the Penguins actually have a power play this year? Ha, well if the first period of tonight’s game is any indication they certainly will as James Neal and Matt Cooke converted on the Pens’ first two opportunities of the season. Last year, however, the Penguins finished 25th in converting power play opportunities and it was not just a matter of missing Malkin and Crosby as the Penguins power play struggled even with the two stars in the line-up. The problem was highlighted even further by the fact that the Penguins had the fifth most opportunities in the league. Converting on only a fraction more of their power play chances would make the Penguins a complete team and nearly impossible to compete with through the course of a season.
6. Will James Neal become the scoring winger the Penguins have been searching for? As I mentioned, Neal scored on the Pens’ first power play chance of the season five minutes into the game. That means it took him all of five minutes to match his goal total in 27 games wearing a Penguins sweater a year ago. I won’t harp too much on this one as it has been written about plenty in the local papers but the Penguins need the player we all thought they were getting when Shero traded for Neal at last year’s deadline.
7. Can Matt Cooke continue to be effective? Hopefully game one of eighty-two is a preview of things to come as the last three questions have been answered positively in an emphatic way (Cooke added to his power play goal with a sweet short-handed goal in the 2nd period). This, too, has been a heavily talked about subject in local news circles but I actually think it is being asked backwards. Cooke is a good two-way player, always has been, but the question isn’t whether he can continue to be without his former agitating ways but if he can truly avoid going over that imaginary line once again. Cooke’s history of questionable tactics and dirty hits will be punished severely by the league if another incident occurs and he could easily be on the first plane out of town if that happens as I suspect the Penguins have probably grown a bit tired of that old act.
8. What will Ray Shero do at the trade deadline? Shero has assembled a deep and talented roster that should be on the short list of Stanley Cup favorites if its stars can stay healthy. Shero has also proven that he isn’t afraid to tinker, or make a big splash, at the trade deadline. It will be interesting to see how Shero assesses this team as the season progresses and if he needs to bring in some complimentary pieces or if he needs to make that bigger move to try and recapture Lord Stanley’s Cup.
9. Can the team remain healthy? The biggest obstacle facing the Penguins franchise as they try to win another Cup is the health of its own players. Crosby has missed 76 games over the previous four seasons, Malkin has missed 54 and Chris Kunitz has missed 48 over the past two seasons, Jordan Staal missed 40 a season ago and even tough-man Brooks Orpik missed 19 games last year and 9 games the season before. Sure, hockey is a brutally tough game but the Pens have had some significantly bad luck when it comes to their stars getting injured. The biggest thing I will be watching and rooting for as the season goes along will be the health of the Penguins top players.
10. When do the playoffs start? Seriously, is there anything more meaningless in professional sports for an elite team than the NHL regular season? Maybe the NBA’s regular season but at least in hoops home court advantage is significant. As we saw last year with Tampa Bay beating the Pens in game seven in the first round and Boston winning the cup in game seven on Vancouver’s home ice, seeding and home ice advantage means very little in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The only thing to root for, outside of individual accomplishments and team and player records, is for the team to stay healthy. That hasn’t been the case for the Penguins the last few years and that’s why, especially considering Crosby’s concussion issues, health is the most important factor I will be watching for this year.
1. When will Crosby return? Obviously this is question #1 for every Penguins fan but all signs point to Sid not missing a significant part of the season. If Sid misses the first month or less, I expect the Penguins to compete for the top seed in the Eastern Conference and maybe even the top point total in the NHL. If Crosby misses a significant portion of the season, I still expect the Pens to compete for a top four or five seed in the Eastern Conference but the season will start to take on a much different tone with continuing questions about their captain. More important, however, is question number two.
2. Will Crosby remain healthy? I think everyone believes that it is inevitable that Crosby will return at some point and now it is only a matter of when. Nobody, however, knows what will happen when he does return. It’s just my own observation but it seems that those who suffer a concussion either recover quickly and never really have problems with them again or there are those that suffer long-term and lingering effects that result in multiple concussions and careers that are never the same. Guys like Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Eric Lindros and a handful of others were never the same after experiencing lingering symptoms and multiple concussions. I sure hope Crosby returns with no lingering effects, suffers no further damage to his head and goes on to the career that we all expect him to have.
3. How will Evgeni Malkin bounce back from his own injury? Crosby won’t be the only one returning this year from a season ending injury. The Penguins, and maybe the NHL’s, second best player in Malkin returns after missing much of the Pens 2010-2011 season with a torn ACL. Malkin was playing possibly his worst hockey since entering the league before the knee injury ended his season last year. That being said, all indications are that Geno is in the best shape of his career, is more determined than ever before and is poised for a monster season. His preseason sure backed those sentiments and now he must carry that momentum into the regular season and playoffs. With the fantastic depth up and down the line-up that Ray Shero has assembled and with Fleury in net, a healthy Crosby and Malkin make the Penguins the team to beat from where I am sitting.
4. Will Marc-Andre Fleury become an elite goaltender? This question is a bit misleading as most, including myself, already consider Fleury an elite netminder. I’m not sure I would trade him straight up for any other goalie in the league once the playoffs begin. That being said…Fleury’s lackluster statistical regular seasons, both by regular and advanced metric measurements, keeps Fleury from being mentioned with the truly elite goaltenders in the league. I think this is mostly attributed to an absolutely terrible streak that he seems to have every season. Last year you might remember that he got off to an abysmal start. It’s time for Fleury, now 26 years-old, to put together that complete season and begin to get mentioned in that class.
5. Will the Penguins actually have a power play this year? Ha, well if the first period of tonight’s game is any indication they certainly will as James Neal and Matt Cooke converted on the Pens’ first two opportunities of the season. Last year, however, the Penguins finished 25th in converting power play opportunities and it was not just a matter of missing Malkin and Crosby as the Penguins power play struggled even with the two stars in the line-up. The problem was highlighted even further by the fact that the Penguins had the fifth most opportunities in the league. Converting on only a fraction more of their power play chances would make the Penguins a complete team and nearly impossible to compete with through the course of a season.
6. Will James Neal become the scoring winger the Penguins have been searching for? As I mentioned, Neal scored on the Pens’ first power play chance of the season five minutes into the game. That means it took him all of five minutes to match his goal total in 27 games wearing a Penguins sweater a year ago. I won’t harp too much on this one as it has been written about plenty in the local papers but the Penguins need the player we all thought they were getting when Shero traded for Neal at last year’s deadline.
7. Can Matt Cooke continue to be effective? Hopefully game one of eighty-two is a preview of things to come as the last three questions have been answered positively in an emphatic way (Cooke added to his power play goal with a sweet short-handed goal in the 2nd period). This, too, has been a heavily talked about subject in local news circles but I actually think it is being asked backwards. Cooke is a good two-way player, always has been, but the question isn’t whether he can continue to be without his former agitating ways but if he can truly avoid going over that imaginary line once again. Cooke’s history of questionable tactics and dirty hits will be punished severely by the league if another incident occurs and he could easily be on the first plane out of town if that happens as I suspect the Penguins have probably grown a bit tired of that old act.
8. What will Ray Shero do at the trade deadline? Shero has assembled a deep and talented roster that should be on the short list of Stanley Cup favorites if its stars can stay healthy. Shero has also proven that he isn’t afraid to tinker, or make a big splash, at the trade deadline. It will be interesting to see how Shero assesses this team as the season progresses and if he needs to bring in some complimentary pieces or if he needs to make that bigger move to try and recapture Lord Stanley’s Cup.
9. Can the team remain healthy? The biggest obstacle facing the Penguins franchise as they try to win another Cup is the health of its own players. Crosby has missed 76 games over the previous four seasons, Malkin has missed 54 and Chris Kunitz has missed 48 over the past two seasons, Jordan Staal missed 40 a season ago and even tough-man Brooks Orpik missed 19 games last year and 9 games the season before. Sure, hockey is a brutally tough game but the Pens have had some significantly bad luck when it comes to their stars getting injured. The biggest thing I will be watching and rooting for as the season goes along will be the health of the Penguins top players.
10. When do the playoffs start? Seriously, is there anything more meaningless in professional sports for an elite team than the NHL regular season? Maybe the NBA’s regular season but at least in hoops home court advantage is significant. As we saw last year with Tampa Bay beating the Pens in game seven in the first round and Boston winning the cup in game seven on Vancouver’s home ice, seeding and home ice advantage means very little in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The only thing to root for, outside of individual accomplishments and team and player records, is for the team to stay healthy. That hasn’t been the case for the Penguins the last few years and that’s why, especially considering Crosby’s concussion issues, health is the most important factor I will be watching for this year.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
No Time to Panic for Steelers
I planned to write a piece on how it’s not time for Steelers fans to panic. We’re four games into the season and while it’s true that the defense hasn’t looked like its former dominant self and the offensive line looks horrendous, to put it mildly, I remind you again that it is only four games into the season! Instead of writing a couple thousand words myself, however, K.C. Joyner of ESPN did a fantastic job of beating me to the punch yesterday.
The only thing that I would add to Joyner’s points about this season’s team is that how quickly we forget “panic times” from the past few seasons. It was week 10 just a year ago when the Steelers were dismantled by the Patriots on Sunday Night Football on their way to a Super Bowl appearance. In 2008, it was week 16 that the Steelers were destroyed by Tennessee, losing home-field advantage in the process, on their way to Lombardi Trophy #6. Even going back to 2005, the Steelers lost three straight games from week 11 through week 13 before reeling off seven straight victories for their Super Bowl victory that year. So remember folks, it is only week four, this Steelers team is going to be fine in the long run…as long as Roethlisberger stays alive behind that offensive line!
Here is an excerpt from Joyner’s column and a link to the full column below…it does require ESPN Insider Access so I do apologize for those without that availability. For those without Insider access, I’ll sum it up: Don’t panic Steelers fans, the odds are heavily in the Steelers’ corner to make the playoffs!
The Pittsburgh Steelers also have a long and successful history of managing advanced roster age (four of their eight Super Bowl teams had at least eight starters who were 30 or older).
This is a fact that seems to have been forgotten following the Steelers' 2-2 start. Pundits and fans have criticized Pittsburgh for keeping so many veterans, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where the Steelers ranked as the oldest group in the NFL coming into the season.
That may have prompted some to write off the Steelers' chances of repeating as AFC champions, but a review of their first four games provides evidence that shows this team is still playing extremely well and has a strong chance of making it to the postseason.
Link to the rest of the story.
The only thing that I would add to Joyner’s points about this season’s team is that how quickly we forget “panic times” from the past few seasons. It was week 10 just a year ago when the Steelers were dismantled by the Patriots on Sunday Night Football on their way to a Super Bowl appearance. In 2008, it was week 16 that the Steelers were destroyed by Tennessee, losing home-field advantage in the process, on their way to Lombardi Trophy #6. Even going back to 2005, the Steelers lost three straight games from week 11 through week 13 before reeling off seven straight victories for their Super Bowl victory that year. So remember folks, it is only week four, this Steelers team is going to be fine in the long run…as long as Roethlisberger stays alive behind that offensive line!
Here is an excerpt from Joyner’s column and a link to the full column below…it does require ESPN Insider Access so I do apologize for those without that availability. For those without Insider access, I’ll sum it up: Don’t panic Steelers fans, the odds are heavily in the Steelers’ corner to make the playoffs!
The Pittsburgh Steelers also have a long and successful history of managing advanced roster age (four of their eight Super Bowl teams had at least eight starters who were 30 or older).
This is a fact that seems to have been forgotten following the Steelers' 2-2 start. Pundits and fans have criticized Pittsburgh for keeping so many veterans, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where the Steelers ranked as the oldest group in the NFL coming into the season.
That may have prompted some to write off the Steelers' chances of repeating as AFC champions, but a review of their first four games provides evidence that shows this team is still playing extremely well and has a strong chance of making it to the postseason.
Link to the rest of the story.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Friday Smorgasbord (as well MLB Playoffs and Week 4 NFL picks)
There has been a lot going on in the sports world these days so there doesn’t seem like a better time than now to have another smorgasbord. Let’s dive right in…
• First off, I decided to not print my Pitt to the ACC column largely because it looks like conference expansion has been put on hold for now and that was largely the gist of the column. That being said, I love the move to the ACC for Pitt. Sure, most of us will miss the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden, an event that I have personally attended a few times, but that is a sacrifice the school had to make for the better long term prospects of both football and basketball in the ACC. Besides, having Duke and/or North Carolina coming into the Oakland Zoo every year is a pretty nice trade off.
• The biggest point that I was going to make in my conference expansion column was that I wish we would just get to the four or five super-conferences already and be done with it. I think it is pretty obvious that we are heading in that direction and the constant speculation, rumors and back-office maneuvering is tiresome. This temporary hold on the conference expansion just means that we have to continue to discuss where and what conferences teams are going to end up in.
• Speaking of Pitt, Coach Graham and company got their first signature win last night on national television at home against South Florida…a game in which even LeBron James weighed in on how awesome Ray Graham is. Ray Graham, the RB, might have been in the Heisman conversation if Pitt would have just held on against Iowa. After last night’s win, anything short of a battle with West Virginia for the conference championship would have to be considered a disappointment.
• Mike Wallace is quickly becoming of the NFL’s best wide receivers. He doesn’t have the freakish skills that guys like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson have but his combination of speed and route running is quickly putting him on those guys level. Wallace reminds me a ton of a young Torry Holt or Reggie Wayne, with possibly even more speed than those guys had.
• After the Steelers first three games, I’m still not sure what kind of team they are. I think we will learn a lot more after this week’s game in Houston. That being said, I was extremely encouraged by the play of James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week. If those guys are healthy and playing the way they are capable of, this team will be right there in the end.
• If you missed Major League Baseball’s final regular season night on Wednesday, you missed a treat. It was like baseball’s version of March Madness with 3+ hours of top drama as the Cardinals and Rays somehow completed two of baseball’s most unbelievable rallies to pass the Braves and Red Sox for the wild card spots. I tried to be positive there for both the Cards and Rays but really they were two of the worst collapses in sports history by Boston and Atlanta - capped off by dramatic collapses in game 162 by each team.
• The baseball playoffs start today and I absolutely love post-season baseball. Every pitch is filled with so much drama, I only wish they occurred faster than every 30 seconds or so. In the Wild Card round, I’m going with the Yankees in four, Rays in five, Phillies and Brewers both in four to advance and I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of the Yankees winning the World Series. Since Atlanta collapsed and missed the postseason, I’ll take the Yanks to beat Milwaukee in the World Series after the Brewers pull the unexpected upset of Philadelphia for the NL pennant.
• With those picks out of the way, here are my week four NFL picks:
(Home Team in Caps)
DALLAS (-1.5) over Detroit – Continue to go against Detroit…might continue to regret it. It’s not that I don’t believe they are legit, it just comes down to individual games and match-ups.
New Orleans (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – No way the Jags and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert can keep up with this Saints offense.
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over San Francisco – This is the week the Eagles win big and everyone thinks everything is a-ok again in Philadelphia.
ST. LOUIS (+2) over Washington – Be careful going against home dogs.
CLEVELAND (pk) over Tennessee – I think it is going to take some time for Tennessee to adjust to life without Kenny Britt.
CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Buffalo – Again, beware of home dogs. Plus, Buffalo is going to come back to earth at some point.
Minnesota (-2) over KANSAS CITY – Eventually Minnesota is not going to blow a big halftime lead.
CHICAGO (-6.5) over Carolina – Newton has not seen anything like what he will see this week in Julius Peppers and the Bears ball-hawking defense.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) over HOUSTON – Does anyone not think that this game is a complete coin-toss? Give me the 3.5 points before I overthink it.
Atlanta (-4.5) over SEATTLE – I think Atlanta could up being our Jekyll and Hyde team this year…one week they look terrible and the next they look fantastic.
New York Giants (-1) over ARIZONA – So far the Kevin Kolb experience at QB is not working for the Cardinals.
Miami (+7) over SAN DIEGO – I think the Chargers win but the Dolphins keep it close.
GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Denver – Yes it is a ton of points but I can’t see how the Broncos can keep up with this fantastic Packers offense at home.
New England (-4) over OAKLAND – Check Bill Belichick’s record after a loss and this pick makes a whole lot more sense.
New York Jets (+3.5) over BALTIMORE – Think this one comes down to a field goal at the end.
Indianapolis (+10) over TAMPA BAY – I know the Monday Night Football schedule was made up before Peyton Manning’s availability was fully known but still, this has to be the worst line-up of primetime games I have ever seen.
(Last Week: 10-6; Overall: 23-23-2)
• First off, I decided to not print my Pitt to the ACC column largely because it looks like conference expansion has been put on hold for now and that was largely the gist of the column. That being said, I love the move to the ACC for Pitt. Sure, most of us will miss the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden, an event that I have personally attended a few times, but that is a sacrifice the school had to make for the better long term prospects of both football and basketball in the ACC. Besides, having Duke and/or North Carolina coming into the Oakland Zoo every year is a pretty nice trade off.
• The biggest point that I was going to make in my conference expansion column was that I wish we would just get to the four or five super-conferences already and be done with it. I think it is pretty obvious that we are heading in that direction and the constant speculation, rumors and back-office maneuvering is tiresome. This temporary hold on the conference expansion just means that we have to continue to discuss where and what conferences teams are going to end up in.
• Speaking of Pitt, Coach Graham and company got their first signature win last night on national television at home against South Florida…a game in which even LeBron James weighed in on how awesome Ray Graham is. Ray Graham, the RB, might have been in the Heisman conversation if Pitt would have just held on against Iowa. After last night’s win, anything short of a battle with West Virginia for the conference championship would have to be considered a disappointment.
• Mike Wallace is quickly becoming of the NFL’s best wide receivers. He doesn’t have the freakish skills that guys like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson have but his combination of speed and route running is quickly putting him on those guys level. Wallace reminds me a ton of a young Torry Holt or Reggie Wayne, with possibly even more speed than those guys had.
• After the Steelers first three games, I’m still not sure what kind of team they are. I think we will learn a lot more after this week’s game in Houston. That being said, I was extremely encouraged by the play of James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week. If those guys are healthy and playing the way they are capable of, this team will be right there in the end.
• If you missed Major League Baseball’s final regular season night on Wednesday, you missed a treat. It was like baseball’s version of March Madness with 3+ hours of top drama as the Cardinals and Rays somehow completed two of baseball’s most unbelievable rallies to pass the Braves and Red Sox for the wild card spots. I tried to be positive there for both the Cards and Rays but really they were two of the worst collapses in sports history by Boston and Atlanta - capped off by dramatic collapses in game 162 by each team.
• The baseball playoffs start today and I absolutely love post-season baseball. Every pitch is filled with so much drama, I only wish they occurred faster than every 30 seconds or so. In the Wild Card round, I’m going with the Yankees in four, Rays in five, Phillies and Brewers both in four to advance and I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of the Yankees winning the World Series. Since Atlanta collapsed and missed the postseason, I’ll take the Yanks to beat Milwaukee in the World Series after the Brewers pull the unexpected upset of Philadelphia for the NL pennant.
• With those picks out of the way, here are my week four NFL picks:
(Home Team in Caps)
DALLAS (-1.5) over Detroit – Continue to go against Detroit…might continue to regret it. It’s not that I don’t believe they are legit, it just comes down to individual games and match-ups.
New Orleans (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – No way the Jags and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert can keep up with this Saints offense.
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over San Francisco – This is the week the Eagles win big and everyone thinks everything is a-ok again in Philadelphia.
ST. LOUIS (+2) over Washington – Be careful going against home dogs.
CLEVELAND (pk) over Tennessee – I think it is going to take some time for Tennessee to adjust to life without Kenny Britt.
CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Buffalo – Again, beware of home dogs. Plus, Buffalo is going to come back to earth at some point.
Minnesota (-2) over KANSAS CITY – Eventually Minnesota is not going to blow a big halftime lead.
CHICAGO (-6.5) over Carolina – Newton has not seen anything like what he will see this week in Julius Peppers and the Bears ball-hawking defense.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) over HOUSTON – Does anyone not think that this game is a complete coin-toss? Give me the 3.5 points before I overthink it.
Atlanta (-4.5) over SEATTLE – I think Atlanta could up being our Jekyll and Hyde team this year…one week they look terrible and the next they look fantastic.
New York Giants (-1) over ARIZONA – So far the Kevin Kolb experience at QB is not working for the Cardinals.
Miami (+7) over SAN DIEGO – I think the Chargers win but the Dolphins keep it close.
GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Denver – Yes it is a ton of points but I can’t see how the Broncos can keep up with this fantastic Packers offense at home.
New England (-4) over OAKLAND – Check Bill Belichick’s record after a loss and this pick makes a whole lot more sense.
New York Jets (+3.5) over BALTIMORE – Think this one comes down to a field goal at the end.
Indianapolis (+10) over TAMPA BAY – I know the Monday Night Football schedule was made up before Peyton Manning’s availability was fully known but still, this has to be the worst line-up of primetime games I have ever seen.
(Last Week: 10-6; Overall: 23-23-2)
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Pirates Showed Improvement - Look to Next Year
The Pirates wrap up a season that was once filled with promise tonight in Milwaukee looking to avoid 90 losses for the seventh straight season. One thing they will not avoid is their 19th consecutive losing season, a record for all of the major sports leagues. Despite the disappointing end to the season, currently going 19-42 after they were in first place in the division after 100 games with a 53-47 record, a win tonight would still have the Pirates improving by 16 games over last season. (Note: Before the season I optimistically predicted the Pirates to finish 70-92 so they have even exceeded my expectations.) Even with a loss, and I do expect the Pirates to lose as the Brewers need a win to lock in the #2 seed in the NL playoffs, they would have improved over last season’s league worst record by 15 games. (Editor’s note: Article was completed before the Pirates loss in the season finale.) Only Arizona and Milwaukee have improved more than the Pirates did from last season and both of those teams will be playing in October. That just goes to show how bad the Pirates truly were a year ago and how much work is left to be done.
The team’s improvement is seemingly forgotten by many Pirates fans because of how truly badly the team has played over the final two plus months of the season. There were, however, many positives to take from this season, not the least of which was a general interest and passion returning to the team’s fanbase after a tremendous first half of the season. More positives included Andrew McCutchen solidifying himself as an emerging star despite his drop off in the second half; the establishment of Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Charlie Morton as legitimate big league starters and some, albeit small, amount of hope from Brad Lincoln; Joel Hanrahan’s maturation into one of the league’s best closers; Neil Walker proving that last year was no fluke; Neal Huntington’s ability to assemble a bullpen on the cheap; Jose Tabata’s no-lose contract extension and limited, though continued improvement; and a strong start to the career of Alex Presley in a limited sample size. Clint Hurdle also proved that he is the right manager for this team at this time…although I will continue to say that he is a terrible in-game manager.
The negatives included Huntington’s terrible offseason acquisitions of Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay (the first I liked and the second I didn’t before the season); the injury and poor performance of Ross Ohlendorf; the continued lack of a true big-league shortstop or first baseman; the catchers’ many injuries and of course the big disappointment that was Pedro Alvarez’ second season in the big leagues. Alvarez’ disappointing season, and disappointing is a major understatement, is obviously the biggest concern as Pedro’s development is probably the most important factor into the possibility of this team contending over the next several years. Alvarez is the team’s lone power bat, and pretty much the only power source in the entire organization. If Alvarez doesn’t bounce back and become the middle-of-the-order bat that the team so desperately needs I simply cannot see this team contending for at least another few years until the young power arms in the low minors might come along.
So that leaves the question, where does this team go heading into next season?
Well let’s start with the obvious. McCutchen will be in center and Walker will be at 2B. From there we have some moving parts but the Pirates absolutely have to give the 3B job to Pedro, give him 500 at-bats and see what he becomes. I would also implore the Pirates to embrace the speed that they have and start the season with Presley and Tabata at the corner outfield spots. That would also mean starting the season with Garrett Jones at 1B, but just as they tried to do this year with Matt Diaz, it would be wise to bring in a right-handed platoon bat at first base to share time with Jones. I also expect the Pirates to exercise the option on Ronny Cedeno at SS and let him and Chase D’Arnaud compete for the job. Really, the Pirates have no choice but to exercise Cedeno’s $3 million option after how poorly D’Arnaud played this year in his first stop in the big leagues and the lack of shortstops on the market (really, a case could be made that D’Arnaud was the worst player in the major leagues this past season).
That leaves catcher as the only unfilled position and I would hope that the Pirates plan to exercise the option on either Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit, with Snyder’s one-year option the more likely choice. I’d love to see Doumit stay, he seems like a good guy who desperately wants to win here, but his injury history and lack of defensive skills make him a liability at $15.5 million over 2 years. Assuming Snyder is retained, or if he isn’t I guess the job will be McHenry’s to lose, that leaves the Pirates with essentially the same line-up as this year. If there is going to be improvement, it is going to have to come from the players themselves. Given their age and some of their histories and pedigrees, that is a reasonable hope. Really, though, it all comes down to Alvarez. As he goes, my guess is so does the Pirates’ offense.
I don’t expect much help from the outside in terms of pitching either and you are probably thinking, “why wouldn’t they go out and spend money to improve the ballclub?” And while that claim is legitimate, the Pirates are still trying to find out what they have internally and are still a couple of years away from truly competing. Spending big money now would be foolish and a waste. I expect the Pirates to allow Paul Maholm and his $9.75 million option to hit the free agent market and to start the season with a rotation of Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, James McDonald and either Brad Lincoln or Ross Ohlendorf with the loser of that battle serving in the long relief and next in-line starter role. Joel Hanrahan will once again anchor the bullpen and I am sure Neal Huntington will assemble a number of power arms in front of him, including the possible retention of Jose Veras and Daniel McCutchen and hopefully highlighted by the return of Evan Meek to his 2010 form. The Pirates are hoping that the left-handed relief role can be filled by Daniel Moskos but if not, that is one area they may have to go out and find a player.
All in all, I don’t expect much player-movement come the offseason for the Buccos. I would think a right-handed bat could be brought in to platoon with Garrett Jones at first, another reliever or two could be brought in and I am sure the club will bring in a few starting pitchers on minor league contracts to compete for starting roles but with not much chance to win. That doesn’t mean improvement is not possible, quite the opposite in fact. If this team was going to break the consecutive losing seasons streak and actually contend anytime soon, the improvement was going to have to come from within. That means the pressure is on Andrew McCutchen to become a superstar, Neil Walker to become more consistent and a major improvement from the likes of Jose Tabata, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Brad Lincoln and Ross Ohlendorf. But nowhere is the spotlight shown brighter than on Pedro Alvarez and his bat. If the Pirates are going to continue moving forward as they did this year, it is squarely on the shoulders of Alvarez to become the hitter the Pirates organization thought he would be.
The team’s improvement is seemingly forgotten by many Pirates fans because of how truly badly the team has played over the final two plus months of the season. There were, however, many positives to take from this season, not the least of which was a general interest and passion returning to the team’s fanbase after a tremendous first half of the season. More positives included Andrew McCutchen solidifying himself as an emerging star despite his drop off in the second half; the establishment of Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Charlie Morton as legitimate big league starters and some, albeit small, amount of hope from Brad Lincoln; Joel Hanrahan’s maturation into one of the league’s best closers; Neil Walker proving that last year was no fluke; Neal Huntington’s ability to assemble a bullpen on the cheap; Jose Tabata’s no-lose contract extension and limited, though continued improvement; and a strong start to the career of Alex Presley in a limited sample size. Clint Hurdle also proved that he is the right manager for this team at this time…although I will continue to say that he is a terrible in-game manager.
The negatives included Huntington’s terrible offseason acquisitions of Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay (the first I liked and the second I didn’t before the season); the injury and poor performance of Ross Ohlendorf; the continued lack of a true big-league shortstop or first baseman; the catchers’ many injuries and of course the big disappointment that was Pedro Alvarez’ second season in the big leagues. Alvarez’ disappointing season, and disappointing is a major understatement, is obviously the biggest concern as Pedro’s development is probably the most important factor into the possibility of this team contending over the next several years. Alvarez is the team’s lone power bat, and pretty much the only power source in the entire organization. If Alvarez doesn’t bounce back and become the middle-of-the-order bat that the team so desperately needs I simply cannot see this team contending for at least another few years until the young power arms in the low minors might come along.
So that leaves the question, where does this team go heading into next season?
Well let’s start with the obvious. McCutchen will be in center and Walker will be at 2B. From there we have some moving parts but the Pirates absolutely have to give the 3B job to Pedro, give him 500 at-bats and see what he becomes. I would also implore the Pirates to embrace the speed that they have and start the season with Presley and Tabata at the corner outfield spots. That would also mean starting the season with Garrett Jones at 1B, but just as they tried to do this year with Matt Diaz, it would be wise to bring in a right-handed platoon bat at first base to share time with Jones. I also expect the Pirates to exercise the option on Ronny Cedeno at SS and let him and Chase D’Arnaud compete for the job. Really, the Pirates have no choice but to exercise Cedeno’s $3 million option after how poorly D’Arnaud played this year in his first stop in the big leagues and the lack of shortstops on the market (really, a case could be made that D’Arnaud was the worst player in the major leagues this past season).
That leaves catcher as the only unfilled position and I would hope that the Pirates plan to exercise the option on either Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit, with Snyder’s one-year option the more likely choice. I’d love to see Doumit stay, he seems like a good guy who desperately wants to win here, but his injury history and lack of defensive skills make him a liability at $15.5 million over 2 years. Assuming Snyder is retained, or if he isn’t I guess the job will be McHenry’s to lose, that leaves the Pirates with essentially the same line-up as this year. If there is going to be improvement, it is going to have to come from the players themselves. Given their age and some of their histories and pedigrees, that is a reasonable hope. Really, though, it all comes down to Alvarez. As he goes, my guess is so does the Pirates’ offense.
I don’t expect much help from the outside in terms of pitching either and you are probably thinking, “why wouldn’t they go out and spend money to improve the ballclub?” And while that claim is legitimate, the Pirates are still trying to find out what they have internally and are still a couple of years away from truly competing. Spending big money now would be foolish and a waste. I expect the Pirates to allow Paul Maholm and his $9.75 million option to hit the free agent market and to start the season with a rotation of Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, James McDonald and either Brad Lincoln or Ross Ohlendorf with the loser of that battle serving in the long relief and next in-line starter role. Joel Hanrahan will once again anchor the bullpen and I am sure Neal Huntington will assemble a number of power arms in front of him, including the possible retention of Jose Veras and Daniel McCutchen and hopefully highlighted by the return of Evan Meek to his 2010 form. The Pirates are hoping that the left-handed relief role can be filled by Daniel Moskos but if not, that is one area they may have to go out and find a player.
All in all, I don’t expect much player-movement come the offseason for the Buccos. I would think a right-handed bat could be brought in to platoon with Garrett Jones at first, another reliever or two could be brought in and I am sure the club will bring in a few starting pitchers on minor league contracts to compete for starting roles but with not much chance to win. That doesn’t mean improvement is not possible, quite the opposite in fact. If this team was going to break the consecutive losing seasons streak and actually contend anytime soon, the improvement was going to have to come from within. That means the pressure is on Andrew McCutchen to become a superstar, Neil Walker to become more consistent and a major improvement from the likes of Jose Tabata, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Brad Lincoln and Ross Ohlendorf. But nowhere is the spotlight shown brighter than on Pedro Alvarez and his bat. If the Pirates are going to continue moving forward as they did this year, it is squarely on the shoulders of Alvarez to become the hitter the Pirates organization thought he would be.
Friday, September 23, 2011
TGIF - Week 3 NFL Picks
It has been a frustrating week in the People’s QB’s blogging world as I had about half of a long-thought out piece on Pitt’s jump to the ACC (and the madness that is the game of conference musical chairs going on in college sports right now) written on Wednesday before a work issue forced me to put the rest of that piece on hold. I had also planned to do a Smorgasbord today since it’s been a while, and I had a whole list of topics that I have some thoughts on, but again things happen when this isn’t your primary job.
We’ll just chalk this week up to the Man, release this week’s NFL picks and come back next week with that Pitt piece, a wrap-up to the Pirates’ season and where they are headed and finally get that Smorgasbord back next Friday. Thanks for understanding and have a great weekend…
(Home Team in Caps)
New England (-8.5) over BUFFALO – Sorry, still don’t believe in this Buffalo team all the way.
TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver – Signs it could be a long year in Denver…Tim Tebow had to line up at WR last week.
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Houston – The Texans’ defense is improved but still not enough to slow down Drew Brees at home.
Miami (+3) over CLEVELAND – Despite being 0-2, I think this Miami team can be solid if Chad Henne continues to play the way he has in the first two games. Well, maybe the way he played in the first week, not last week, but still…
MINNESOTA (+3.5) over Detroit – Minnesota is finding ways to lose, Detroit looks like it may never lose. I think things normalize a bit this week and the Vikes pull the home upset. (Note: that was an extremely weird sentence to write – The Vikings pulling a home upset over the Lions.)
New York Giants (+7) over PHILADELPHIA – Vick is going to play and that had me wavering but these games always seem tight and nobody has a better defensive line to chase after Vick than the G-Men do. Eli throws a late TD for a cover, the Eagles recover the onside kick and that’s that.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Jacksonville – Newton is going to come back to earth a bit sometime soon but the Jags are giving rookie Blaine Gabbert his first start this week. That means Newton and Company should get their first victory.
Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO – Because Green Bay is the best team in football right now...sorry Patriots’ fans.
OAKLAND (+3) over New York Jets – I like the match-up for the Raiders. They are going to run the football offensively, keep the game low-scoring and force the Jets’ banged-up offensive line to block their terrific defensive line.
San Francisco (+3) over CINCINNATI – Here’s a guess…not too many TVs outside of San Francisco and Cincinnati will be tuned into this one.
SEATTLE (+3.5) over Arizona – The Seahawks have the NFL’s best home-field advantage…about the only thing they have going in their favor these days.
BALTIMORE (-4) over St. Louis – I am regretting that I didn’t take a look at the Rams’ schedule before making them my pick to win the NFC West. St. Louis could easily start the season 1-6 or even 0-7 before getting to the easier portion of the schedule. Even if they are the favorite in their final eight games, teams simply do not recover from starts that bad.
SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City – I don’t think you could make this line high enough for me to pick the Chiefs.
Atlanta (+1.5) over Tampa Bay – Both of these teams found their mojo last week but it’s the Falcons who I think are for real.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over INDIANAPOLIS – Example number 1,000,000,001 why NFL preseason strength of schedule rankings mean absolutely nothing.
DALLAS (-4) over Washington – Because I don’t want to live in world where Rex Grossman is 3-0 and I have to read stupid articles saying how “Grossman is the model of stability in a division with Vick, Romo and Eli…” Give me a break.
(Last Week: 5-10-1; Overall: 13-17-2)
We’ll just chalk this week up to the Man, release this week’s NFL picks and come back next week with that Pitt piece, a wrap-up to the Pirates’ season and where they are headed and finally get that Smorgasbord back next Friday. Thanks for understanding and have a great weekend…
(Home Team in Caps)
New England (-8.5) over BUFFALO – Sorry, still don’t believe in this Buffalo team all the way.
TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver – Signs it could be a long year in Denver…Tim Tebow had to line up at WR last week.
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Houston – The Texans’ defense is improved but still not enough to slow down Drew Brees at home.
Miami (+3) over CLEVELAND – Despite being 0-2, I think this Miami team can be solid if Chad Henne continues to play the way he has in the first two games. Well, maybe the way he played in the first week, not last week, but still…
MINNESOTA (+3.5) over Detroit – Minnesota is finding ways to lose, Detroit looks like it may never lose. I think things normalize a bit this week and the Vikes pull the home upset. (Note: that was an extremely weird sentence to write – The Vikings pulling a home upset over the Lions.)
New York Giants (+7) over PHILADELPHIA – Vick is going to play and that had me wavering but these games always seem tight and nobody has a better defensive line to chase after Vick than the G-Men do. Eli throws a late TD for a cover, the Eagles recover the onside kick and that’s that.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Jacksonville – Newton is going to come back to earth a bit sometime soon but the Jags are giving rookie Blaine Gabbert his first start this week. That means Newton and Company should get their first victory.
Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO – Because Green Bay is the best team in football right now...sorry Patriots’ fans.
OAKLAND (+3) over New York Jets – I like the match-up for the Raiders. They are going to run the football offensively, keep the game low-scoring and force the Jets’ banged-up offensive line to block their terrific defensive line.
San Francisco (+3) over CINCINNATI – Here’s a guess…not too many TVs outside of San Francisco and Cincinnati will be tuned into this one.
SEATTLE (+3.5) over Arizona – The Seahawks have the NFL’s best home-field advantage…about the only thing they have going in their favor these days.
BALTIMORE (-4) over St. Louis – I am regretting that I didn’t take a look at the Rams’ schedule before making them my pick to win the NFC West. St. Louis could easily start the season 1-6 or even 0-7 before getting to the easier portion of the schedule. Even if they are the favorite in their final eight games, teams simply do not recover from starts that bad.
SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City – I don’t think you could make this line high enough for me to pick the Chiefs.
Atlanta (+1.5) over Tampa Bay – Both of these teams found their mojo last week but it’s the Falcons who I think are for real.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over INDIANAPOLIS – Example number 1,000,000,001 why NFL preseason strength of schedule rankings mean absolutely nothing.
DALLAS (-4) over Washington – Because I don’t want to live in world where Rex Grossman is 3-0 and I have to read stupid articles saying how “Grossman is the model of stability in a division with Vick, Romo and Eli…” Give me a break.
(Last Week: 5-10-1; Overall: 13-17-2)
Friday, September 16, 2011
Week 2 NFL Power Rankings and Picks
Since I haven’t done an official NFL Power Rankings since before the pre-season and I am in the ranking mood this week, let’s do one now that we have some real game-action to go on. These rankings are obviously iron-clad for the rest of season, or at least until Sunday’s games when our view of certain teams will probably flip 180 degrees!
(Scroll to the bottom if you are only interested in my week 2 picks.)
1. Green Bay – If you had any doubts about the Packers having a Super Bowl letdown they were answered last Thursday night. The Pack have the league’s best roster and are finally playing up-tempo offensively, something I begged them to do for weeks last year!
2. New England – Tom Brady is pretty good. Feeling even better about my Super Bowl pick after the way the Pats and their biggest challenger, the Steelers, played in week one.
3. New Orleans – Some may look at the Saints loss on opening night as a negative. I saw so many positives that this team is going to be a force that I had to jump them up four spots in my power rankings.
4. Philadelphia – The Eagles dominated everyone’s obvious sleeper team in week one but Michael Vick did not look particularly sharp making decisions and throwing the football and that is something he is going to have to do if this team is going to reach the promised land.
5. Baltimore – The Ravens may have played their best overall game since white-washing the Patriots in the 2009 playoffs. Flacco looked tremendous, Ray Rice was phenomenal and the defense was all over Big Ben. More importantly, the offensive line played a very solid game. If the Ravens can get that kind of play from Bryant McKinnie and the rest of the o-line on a consistent basis, their Super Bowl chances would skyrocket.
6. Pittsburgh – It’s one game people, relax! Pittsburgh talk radio was unbearable this week…can people not remember it was week 9 last year when the Steelers were pulverized by the Patriots and that meant nothing on their way to the Super Bowl? I still see the Steelers as the co-favorites for AFC supremacy but I can’t rank them ahead of the Ravens after being dismantled last week. My biggest concern at this point is James Harrison’s back. The star OLB did not look like himself throughout the pre-season and certainly did nothing in week one to squash those fears.
7. San Diego – Do you realize the Chargers allowed the opening kick to be returned for a touchdown, played the rest of the game without a kicker and threw two costly interceptions yet still won the game? Could they finally be turning a new leaf? You could also say that they held the Vikings to 28 net yards passing and held the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game and still almost lost but I am an in an optimistic mood this week.
8. New York Jets – The Jets did everything wrong but lose the game Sunday night. I’m still a little confused on how they managed to pull that off but a win is a win. The Jets badly need the running game to get going if they are going to compete with the elite in the AFC this year.
9. Dallas – On the other side of the ball Dallas did everything right until the final ten minutes or so when Tony Romo decided to commit two costly turnovers and the Cowboys allowed a punt to get blocked. Still, a lot of positives can be taken from this one in Big D.
10. Houston – A good start for the Texans who are trying to exercise their regular season demons and reach the postseason for the first time in franchise history. The game, and the division, looks a whole lot easier when number 18 isn’t around.
11. Chicago – Many people were calling for a big letdown season in Chicago after last year’s surprising run to the NFC Championship game. That wasn’t the case in week one. We know Lovie Smith’s defenses are going to run around all over the field and this is Jay Cutler’s second year in Mike Martz’ system so the drop-off may not be so great after-all…something I didn’t think was going to happen dramatically anyway.
12. Atlanta – Atlanta saved the Steelers from the week one Super Bowl contender who performed the worst award. This week Mike Vick makes his return to the A-T-L and the Falcons are staring at an 0-2 start right in the face.
13. New York Giants – This is where doing power rankings in week two can get a little dicey. People will say how can you put the G-Men ahead of the Redskins when they just lost to them? Well I can because they are MY rankings, and I still think the long-term forecast for the Giants is better than that of the ‘Skins.
14. Detroit – The Lions get the biggest jump from our pre-preseason power rankings moving up from 19th. The Lions went on the road and dominated what we thought would be a halfway decent Bucs team. Believe me when I tell you that this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Stafford looked terrific, Megatron is a freak and the Lions defensive line is downright scary.
15. St. Louis – It was only one loss to one of the League’s elite teams so I am not all that concerned with their week one performance. What I am concerned about is the injuries to an already weak secondary.
16. Minnesota – Since I am being optimistic this week I am going to say the Vikings almost won a game on the road against a Super Bowl contender despite only getting 39 yards passing from Donovan McNabb. (If I were being pessimistic, I would say that McNabb didn’t look very good and that the offensive line looked even worse.)
17. Miami – Sure, the Dolphins were absolutely torched by Tom Brady and company but I’m not sure that any defense would not have been the way the Pats were rolling Monday Night. Steelers’ fans know the feeling from their meeting last year. The encouraging sign for the Dolphins, however, was the play of Chad Henne. If the Dolphins get that kind of performance out of their QB all year they will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt.
18. Jacksonville – It was right around the Vikings spot in the rankings that I started to notice that this is really a season of the haves and the have-nots. There are a lot more teams that I was looking to put towards the bottom of this list than there are in the middle of it. Jacksonville looked the best of the bad teams and should at least have a solid defense to keep them in most games.
19. Tampa Bay – If it weren’t for a gift pick-six and a late touchdown while Detroit was in its prevent defense we would be talking a lot more about how poorly the Buccaneers played in week one. The Bucs absolutely have to get LeGarrette Blount and the running game going to take some pressure off of Josh Freeman and to give the defense some rest.
20. Tennessee – Tennessee is another team that has to get their running game going with Chris Johnson. I know he missed most of training camp but nine carries is nowhere near enough when the Titans never trailed by more than 13 points.
21. Arizona – The good news is that the Cardinals got a pretty good game from Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells. The bad news is that their secondary looked absolutely horrendous. Lucky for the Cardinals that they play in a division where Alex Smith and Tarvaris Jackson are two of the QBs that will be trying to take advantage of that secondary.
22. San Francisco – Jim Harbaugh won his coaching debut, mostly thanks to the Seahawks anemic offense and his returner Ted Ginn Jr. You can tell that Harbaugh didn’t have much confidence in his own QB but hey, at least David Akers looked good kicking the ball.
23. Oakland – I actually think I had the Raiders a little low in my initial rankings and might even have them a little low here as well. The Raiders can run the football and win the battle along the defensive line, a formula that can at least keep them competitive.
24. Indianapolis – I don’t think the Colts envisioned the season starting this way when the lockout started back in the spring. It’s going to take some time, but there is still enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to win five or six games this year.
25. Washington – Rex Grossman looked like a different man on Sunday, playing with poise and not forcing the ball into tight spaces. There’s still a lot not to like about this Washington offense but for one week let’s give them the credit they deserve.
26. Carolina – We saw all of the reasons that Cam Newton went #1 in the draft and I don’t think the Panthers’ brass could have been more happy about week one despite the gut-wrenching loss.
27. Denver – I think we saw why it is going to be a long season for Denver fans this year. The Broncos can’t stop the run and their offensive line is poor, at best.
28. Buffalo – The Bills may have put a shellacking on the Chiefs in week one but I don’t think it takes a football expert to understand why they are ranked where they are. Still, it was a great opening week performance by Buffalo and a lot of credit goes to Chan Gailey and his staff for having the Bills ready to perform that way.
29. Kansas City – Tough choice between the Chiefs and Browns for who had week one’s most embarrassing home loss. I’m going with the Chiefs, fresh off their first playoff appearance since 2006, they lay a complete egg against a Buffalo team that many expected to be among the league’s worst teams. To make matters worse, star safety Eric Berry suffered a torn ACL and will be out for the season.
30. Seattle – Ummm, Tarvaris Jackson, really? That’s the best they could come up with in the offseason for a starting quarterback? Hey, the Seahawks did outgain the Niners 219-209 and they are firmly entrenched in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
31. Cincinnati – Andy Dalton looked pretty solid before leaving with an injury and AJ Green had a big 41-yard touchdown reception from my man, Bruce Gradkowski. The Bengals are off to a great start in what is certainly a rebuilding year and their young talent, including tight end Jermaine Gresham, showed some very good signs in week one.
32. Cleveland – Absolutely pitiful loss for a Cleveland team that built a lot of positive momentum at the end of last year into this year. To be honest, the Browns probably don’t deserve to be last in these rankings but I can’t get over a 10-point home loss to a rebuilding Bengals team.
Week 2 Picks (Home Team in Caps)
Oakland (+3.5) over BUFFALO
Kansas City (+9) over DETROIT
Baltimore (-6) over TENNESSEE
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) over Cleveland
MINNESOTA (-3) over Tampa Bay
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Chicago
Green Bay (-10) over CAROLINA
Arizona (+4) over WASHINGTON
Dallas (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO
PITTBURGH (-13) over Seattle
NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Jacksonville
DENVER (-3.5) over Cincinnati
MIAMI (+3.5) over Houston
San Diego (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Philadelphia (+2.5) over ATLANTA
St. Louis (+6) over NEW YORK GIANTS
(Last Week: 8-7-1)
(Scroll to the bottom if you are only interested in my week 2 picks.)
1. Green Bay – If you had any doubts about the Packers having a Super Bowl letdown they were answered last Thursday night. The Pack have the league’s best roster and are finally playing up-tempo offensively, something I begged them to do for weeks last year!
2. New England – Tom Brady is pretty good. Feeling even better about my Super Bowl pick after the way the Pats and their biggest challenger, the Steelers, played in week one.
3. New Orleans – Some may look at the Saints loss on opening night as a negative. I saw so many positives that this team is going to be a force that I had to jump them up four spots in my power rankings.
4. Philadelphia – The Eagles dominated everyone’s obvious sleeper team in week one but Michael Vick did not look particularly sharp making decisions and throwing the football and that is something he is going to have to do if this team is going to reach the promised land.
5. Baltimore – The Ravens may have played their best overall game since white-washing the Patriots in the 2009 playoffs. Flacco looked tremendous, Ray Rice was phenomenal and the defense was all over Big Ben. More importantly, the offensive line played a very solid game. If the Ravens can get that kind of play from Bryant McKinnie and the rest of the o-line on a consistent basis, their Super Bowl chances would skyrocket.
6. Pittsburgh – It’s one game people, relax! Pittsburgh talk radio was unbearable this week…can people not remember it was week 9 last year when the Steelers were pulverized by the Patriots and that meant nothing on their way to the Super Bowl? I still see the Steelers as the co-favorites for AFC supremacy but I can’t rank them ahead of the Ravens after being dismantled last week. My biggest concern at this point is James Harrison’s back. The star OLB did not look like himself throughout the pre-season and certainly did nothing in week one to squash those fears.
7. San Diego – Do you realize the Chargers allowed the opening kick to be returned for a touchdown, played the rest of the game without a kicker and threw two costly interceptions yet still won the game? Could they finally be turning a new leaf? You could also say that they held the Vikings to 28 net yards passing and held the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game and still almost lost but I am an in an optimistic mood this week.
8. New York Jets – The Jets did everything wrong but lose the game Sunday night. I’m still a little confused on how they managed to pull that off but a win is a win. The Jets badly need the running game to get going if they are going to compete with the elite in the AFC this year.
9. Dallas – On the other side of the ball Dallas did everything right until the final ten minutes or so when Tony Romo decided to commit two costly turnovers and the Cowboys allowed a punt to get blocked. Still, a lot of positives can be taken from this one in Big D.
10. Houston – A good start for the Texans who are trying to exercise their regular season demons and reach the postseason for the first time in franchise history. The game, and the division, looks a whole lot easier when number 18 isn’t around.
11. Chicago – Many people were calling for a big letdown season in Chicago after last year’s surprising run to the NFC Championship game. That wasn’t the case in week one. We know Lovie Smith’s defenses are going to run around all over the field and this is Jay Cutler’s second year in Mike Martz’ system so the drop-off may not be so great after-all…something I didn’t think was going to happen dramatically anyway.
12. Atlanta – Atlanta saved the Steelers from the week one Super Bowl contender who performed the worst award. This week Mike Vick makes his return to the A-T-L and the Falcons are staring at an 0-2 start right in the face.
13. New York Giants – This is where doing power rankings in week two can get a little dicey. People will say how can you put the G-Men ahead of the Redskins when they just lost to them? Well I can because they are MY rankings, and I still think the long-term forecast for the Giants is better than that of the ‘Skins.
14. Detroit – The Lions get the biggest jump from our pre-preseason power rankings moving up from 19th. The Lions went on the road and dominated what we thought would be a halfway decent Bucs team. Believe me when I tell you that this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Stafford looked terrific, Megatron is a freak and the Lions defensive line is downright scary.
15. St. Louis – It was only one loss to one of the League’s elite teams so I am not all that concerned with their week one performance. What I am concerned about is the injuries to an already weak secondary.
16. Minnesota – Since I am being optimistic this week I am going to say the Vikings almost won a game on the road against a Super Bowl contender despite only getting 39 yards passing from Donovan McNabb. (If I were being pessimistic, I would say that McNabb didn’t look very good and that the offensive line looked even worse.)
17. Miami – Sure, the Dolphins were absolutely torched by Tom Brady and company but I’m not sure that any defense would not have been the way the Pats were rolling Monday Night. Steelers’ fans know the feeling from their meeting last year. The encouraging sign for the Dolphins, however, was the play of Chad Henne. If the Dolphins get that kind of performance out of their QB all year they will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt.
18. Jacksonville – It was right around the Vikings spot in the rankings that I started to notice that this is really a season of the haves and the have-nots. There are a lot more teams that I was looking to put towards the bottom of this list than there are in the middle of it. Jacksonville looked the best of the bad teams and should at least have a solid defense to keep them in most games.
19. Tampa Bay – If it weren’t for a gift pick-six and a late touchdown while Detroit was in its prevent defense we would be talking a lot more about how poorly the Buccaneers played in week one. The Bucs absolutely have to get LeGarrette Blount and the running game going to take some pressure off of Josh Freeman and to give the defense some rest.
20. Tennessee – Tennessee is another team that has to get their running game going with Chris Johnson. I know he missed most of training camp but nine carries is nowhere near enough when the Titans never trailed by more than 13 points.
21. Arizona – The good news is that the Cardinals got a pretty good game from Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells. The bad news is that their secondary looked absolutely horrendous. Lucky for the Cardinals that they play in a division where Alex Smith and Tarvaris Jackson are two of the QBs that will be trying to take advantage of that secondary.
22. San Francisco – Jim Harbaugh won his coaching debut, mostly thanks to the Seahawks anemic offense and his returner Ted Ginn Jr. You can tell that Harbaugh didn’t have much confidence in his own QB but hey, at least David Akers looked good kicking the ball.
23. Oakland – I actually think I had the Raiders a little low in my initial rankings and might even have them a little low here as well. The Raiders can run the football and win the battle along the defensive line, a formula that can at least keep them competitive.
24. Indianapolis – I don’t think the Colts envisioned the season starting this way when the lockout started back in the spring. It’s going to take some time, but there is still enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to win five or six games this year.
25. Washington – Rex Grossman looked like a different man on Sunday, playing with poise and not forcing the ball into tight spaces. There’s still a lot not to like about this Washington offense but for one week let’s give them the credit they deserve.
26. Carolina – We saw all of the reasons that Cam Newton went #1 in the draft and I don’t think the Panthers’ brass could have been more happy about week one despite the gut-wrenching loss.
27. Denver – I think we saw why it is going to be a long season for Denver fans this year. The Broncos can’t stop the run and their offensive line is poor, at best.
28. Buffalo – The Bills may have put a shellacking on the Chiefs in week one but I don’t think it takes a football expert to understand why they are ranked where they are. Still, it was a great opening week performance by Buffalo and a lot of credit goes to Chan Gailey and his staff for having the Bills ready to perform that way.
29. Kansas City – Tough choice between the Chiefs and Browns for who had week one’s most embarrassing home loss. I’m going with the Chiefs, fresh off their first playoff appearance since 2006, they lay a complete egg against a Buffalo team that many expected to be among the league’s worst teams. To make matters worse, star safety Eric Berry suffered a torn ACL and will be out for the season.
30. Seattle – Ummm, Tarvaris Jackson, really? That’s the best they could come up with in the offseason for a starting quarterback? Hey, the Seahawks did outgain the Niners 219-209 and they are firmly entrenched in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
31. Cincinnati – Andy Dalton looked pretty solid before leaving with an injury and AJ Green had a big 41-yard touchdown reception from my man, Bruce Gradkowski. The Bengals are off to a great start in what is certainly a rebuilding year and their young talent, including tight end Jermaine Gresham, showed some very good signs in week one.
32. Cleveland – Absolutely pitiful loss for a Cleveland team that built a lot of positive momentum at the end of last year into this year. To be honest, the Browns probably don’t deserve to be last in these rankings but I can’t get over a 10-point home loss to a rebuilding Bengals team.
Week 2 Picks (Home Team in Caps)
Oakland (+3.5) over BUFFALO
Kansas City (+9) over DETROIT
Baltimore (-6) over TENNESSEE
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) over Cleveland
MINNESOTA (-3) over Tampa Bay
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Chicago
Green Bay (-10) over CAROLINA
Arizona (+4) over WASHINGTON
Dallas (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO
PITTBURGH (-13) over Seattle
NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Jacksonville
DENVER (-3.5) over Cincinnati
MIAMI (+3.5) over Houston
San Diego (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Philadelphia (+2.5) over ATLANTA
St. Louis (+6) over NEW YORK GIANTS
(Last Week: 8-7-1)
Thursday, September 15, 2011
My First Look at College Football's Top 25
College football begins week three tonight so I am a bit behind in releasing my initial thoughts on the season. The good thing is that outside of Oregon and Notre Dame, not much has changed since opening kick-off a couple of weeks ago. Here is my first look at the top teams in the country:
1. Alabama – That’s right, Alabama was my preseason #1 team last year and they are #1 on my first (meaningless) ballot this year. Trent Richardson is back and the defense features at least 8, and probably more, future NFL players. Sure, they had to replace the QB, but they are one of the few teams that rely on the quarterback so little. Their dominant performance in Happy Valley last week solidified by belief that this is once again the team to beat.
By the way, despite finishing the 2010 season with three losses, I still believe that ‘Bama was the best team in the land last year and would have been my pick had an extended playoff been played. That being said…Auburn absolutely deserved the National Title and it was a year in which the BCS system worked out ok (unless you are a fan of TCU, of course).
2. LSU – Did anyone see how fast the Tigers’ defense was against Oregon? Who cares that QB Jordan Jefferson may not suit up the entire year and WR Russell Shepard was suspended for the first three games of the year…plenty of athletes to go around in Baton Rouge. LSU goes to Alabama on November 5th in a game that could decide which team plays for the BCS National Championship in New Orleans come January 9th.
3. Wisconsin – I absolutely love this Wisconsin team who returns size, speed and experience and filled their one glaring hole, quarterback, with a guy who has over 8,500 passing yards, over 1,000 yards rushing and nearly 100 TDs in his career at NC State. I was tempted to put Wisconsin at #1 because I think they may have the clearest shot at the national title game amongst the BCS conference teams but I just couldn’t justify putting the Badgers ahead of the SEC beasts.
4. Oklahoma – The Sooners sport the nation’s best offense led by QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles but it has been a while since head coach Bob Stoops has won a big game. Oklahoma gets its first big test this week in Tallahassee.
5. Boise State – This is what I wrote last year: “Boise returns a number of starters from their BCS busting team last year including Heisman hopeful QB Kellen Moore. We will find out if they are the real deal right away as the Broncos take on Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. for their opener and have Oregon St. at home just a few weeks later.” Not much has changed except the fact that Boise has already passed its first test of the year in week one against Georgia in a convincing fashion. TCU is the only ranked team remaining on the Broncos schedule so the question becomes whether an undefeated Boise team will be worthy of a national title shot over a one-loss SEC, Big 12 or Big 10 team.
6. Stanford – Stanford has the nation’s best QB in Andrew Luck and an experienced defense to count on but has some questions up front and at wide receiver. The Pac-10 is a bit down, however, and this could be Stanford’s best chance to play for a national title for the next couple of decades as it’s not every day that the Cardinal get a talent like Luck.
7. Virginia Tech – I do not, necessarily, think that the Hokies are the seventh best team in the country but I do think they are the best team in ACC and David Wilson is a highlight waiting to happen. You can count on Frank Beamer’s teams to always have a great defense and special teams but the big question is at QB where sophomore Logan Thomas takes over for four-year starter Tyrod Taylor.
8. Florida State – Most “experts” have FSU ahead of Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order but I have seen enough of QB E.J. Manuel to have some serious questions. I also don’t trust the Seminoles’ defense nearly to the degree that I trust Virginia Tech’s. FSU does have a ton of talent returning, however, and we are going to find out just how good they are this week as they host Oklahoma.
9. Oklahoma State – Offensive guru Dana Holgorsen may have moved on to WVU but QB Brandon Weeden, WR Justin Blackmon and a whole host of offensive talent returns in Stillwater. If there’s an offense that can rival Oklahoma’s it is this one but there are tons of questions marks on a defense that wasn’t very good last year to begin with.
10. South Carolina – Steve Spurrier’s bunch is going to score lots of points this year as they proved in their first two contests and running back Marcus Lattimore is a true Heisman contender. Can the defense improve enough to make a run at the SEC championship?
11. Texas A&M – I can’t remember the last time the Big 12 has been this deep. It is saying something when Texas is probably the fourth most talented team in the conference. The Aggies, in what is most likely their final year in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC, are led by QB Ryan Tannehill and a tremendous defense despite the loss of Von Miller. The Aggies take on Oklahoma State next Saturday in a big-time early season clash.
12. Nebraska – Taylor Martinez is back and should be better with a year of experience under his belt. The defensive front should once again be tremendous with dominant defensive tackle Jared Crick leading the way. Questions at the skill positions and along the offensive line will make the Cornhuskers transition to the Big 10 interesting.
13. Oregon – This might be a little low for the Ducks but I wasn’t quite as high on Chip Kelly’s bunch to start the season either. Oregon’s offensive line was dominated in the championship game last year and had even more question marks going into this season, questions that certainly weren’t answered in their loss to LSU. I do love Darron Thomas and LaMichael James but they are going to shoulder an awful heavy load if this team is going to repeat in the Pac 10.
14. Ohio State – Despite the defections, the suspensions and the turmoil at Ohio State, let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that this team is not extremely talented. The top five recruiting classes that Jim Tressel was continuously bringing in are still there and I suspect the remaining Buckeyes might have something to prove, starting this week against Miami.
15. Arkansas – Arkansas’ bid at making it back-to-back BCS Bowl games took a major hit with the preseason injury to RB Kniles Davis. The Razorbacks have still looked tremendous on offense in their first two games, albeit against a couple of cream puffs. I would be higher on the Hogs if wasn’t for a brutal schedule that includes six teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25, four of those currently in the top 10, and trips to both Alabama and LSU.
16. West Virginia – WVU has gotten off to a slow start in each of their first two games but it is only a matter of time before QB Geno Smith and a talented group of wide receivers hit their stride in Dana Holgorsen’s new offense.
17. Florida – Much like Ohio State, the fabulous talent brought in over the past few recruiting classes is still there in Gainesville and it now falls on new coach Will Muschamp to harness that talent.
18. Arizona State – The Sun Devils brought back a ton of starters from their team a year ago and so far Brock Osweiler has played well at quarterback, the big question mark entering the season.
19. Auburn – I have no idea what to make of this Auburn team. They have looked tremendous at times in their first two games and downright awful at other times but they keep finding ways to win.
20. Michigan State – Although the Spartans return a good bit of talent from last year’s 11-2 squad, including QB Kirk Cousins and RB Edwin Baker, they lost a ton of leadership and talent on defense in LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon.
21. South Florida – It wouldn’t surprise me if West Virginia, South Florida or Pitt won the Big East. South Florida has looked the best so far with an impressive, although somewhat unusual win in South Bend in their opener.
22. Texas – No doubt that Texas has as much pure talent as anyone in the Big 12, and maybe the country, but a QB mess looms large over the program with the new plan being to rotate sophomore Case McCoy (yes that’s Colt’s brother) and freshman David Ash and putting the experienced Garrett Gilbert on the bench.
23. Baylor – No quarterback controversy here as Robert Griffin III is one of the country’s most dynamic athletes and has already led Baylor to a huge win over TCU in what could go down as the game of the year despite being played on opening weekend.
24. Penn State – I like this Penn State team despite the ugly loss to Alabama last week. I only wish that JoePa and his staff would settle on Robert Bolden at quarterback. He is obviously more talented and has a good bit of room to grow over former walk-on Matt McGloin. I expect the Lions to rebound over the next few weeks before taking on the grind of the Big Ten schedule.
I also thought about putting Notre Dame in this spot, but couldn’t pull the trigger after two very strange losses. I’d like to bet that the Fighting Irish and Coach Brian Kelly rebound from these losses and finish the season with at least 8 or 9 wins and firmly entrenched in the top 25.
25. Michigan – There are plenty of teams that could claim this spot this early in the season but after Michigan’s thrilling victory and the excitement Denard Robinson brings on every play, the Wolverines get the nod at this point. Other teams that I considered included USC, TCU, Missouri, Mississippi State and Tennessee.
Not Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh – I am certainly not sugar-coating it when I say that Pitt has looked awful in its first two games allowing a pretty bad Buffalo team to rack up 400 yards in the opener and then surviving with a 35-29 win over a I-AA team in Maine. QB Tino Sunseri has played terribly, the offensive line has looked lost, the linebackers look slow and the pass-coverage has been suspect at best. Add those up and you have what amounts to a pretty poor season on the horizon. That’s the bad news…the good news is that the Panthers are 2-0 and now begin what is the real part of their schedule. Ray Graham looks even better than advertised, the defensive line is every bit as good as it is deep and the Panthers should begin to play better as they get more comfortable in their new offensive and defensive systems.
To be honest, I really do not have a feel for where this season is headed. I think Sunseri will play better than he has. He’s not a superstar but he can be effective, especially with the threat of Graham running the ball. I also think the offensive line and secondary will play better as they become more accustomed to the new schemes. As for the linebackers, I don’t think the new systems gels with the talent on hand and they could remain a work in progress as the season progresses. With a mediocre Big East, it would not shock me one bit to see the Panthers win the conference. It also wouldn’t shock me to see the Panthers stumble to a 7-5 type season. I think we will learn a whole lot more about this team after this week when they make the trip to Iowa to play a solid, disciplined and well-coached Hawkeyes team that should be fired up after losing an overtime game to their in-state rival last week. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Panthers do so we can begin assessing Coach Graham and the new era of Pitt football.
1. Alabama – That’s right, Alabama was my preseason #1 team last year and they are #1 on my first (meaningless) ballot this year. Trent Richardson is back and the defense features at least 8, and probably more, future NFL players. Sure, they had to replace the QB, but they are one of the few teams that rely on the quarterback so little. Their dominant performance in Happy Valley last week solidified by belief that this is once again the team to beat.
By the way, despite finishing the 2010 season with three losses, I still believe that ‘Bama was the best team in the land last year and would have been my pick had an extended playoff been played. That being said…Auburn absolutely deserved the National Title and it was a year in which the BCS system worked out ok (unless you are a fan of TCU, of course).
2. LSU – Did anyone see how fast the Tigers’ defense was against Oregon? Who cares that QB Jordan Jefferson may not suit up the entire year and WR Russell Shepard was suspended for the first three games of the year…plenty of athletes to go around in Baton Rouge. LSU goes to Alabama on November 5th in a game that could decide which team plays for the BCS National Championship in New Orleans come January 9th.
3. Wisconsin – I absolutely love this Wisconsin team who returns size, speed and experience and filled their one glaring hole, quarterback, with a guy who has over 8,500 passing yards, over 1,000 yards rushing and nearly 100 TDs in his career at NC State. I was tempted to put Wisconsin at #1 because I think they may have the clearest shot at the national title game amongst the BCS conference teams but I just couldn’t justify putting the Badgers ahead of the SEC beasts.
4. Oklahoma – The Sooners sport the nation’s best offense led by QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles but it has been a while since head coach Bob Stoops has won a big game. Oklahoma gets its first big test this week in Tallahassee.
5. Boise State – This is what I wrote last year: “Boise returns a number of starters from their BCS busting team last year including Heisman hopeful QB Kellen Moore. We will find out if they are the real deal right away as the Broncos take on Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. for their opener and have Oregon St. at home just a few weeks later.” Not much has changed except the fact that Boise has already passed its first test of the year in week one against Georgia in a convincing fashion. TCU is the only ranked team remaining on the Broncos schedule so the question becomes whether an undefeated Boise team will be worthy of a national title shot over a one-loss SEC, Big 12 or Big 10 team.
6. Stanford – Stanford has the nation’s best QB in Andrew Luck and an experienced defense to count on but has some questions up front and at wide receiver. The Pac-10 is a bit down, however, and this could be Stanford’s best chance to play for a national title for the next couple of decades as it’s not every day that the Cardinal get a talent like Luck.
7. Virginia Tech – I do not, necessarily, think that the Hokies are the seventh best team in the country but I do think they are the best team in ACC and David Wilson is a highlight waiting to happen. You can count on Frank Beamer’s teams to always have a great defense and special teams but the big question is at QB where sophomore Logan Thomas takes over for four-year starter Tyrod Taylor.
8. Florida State – Most “experts” have FSU ahead of Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order but I have seen enough of QB E.J. Manuel to have some serious questions. I also don’t trust the Seminoles’ defense nearly to the degree that I trust Virginia Tech’s. FSU does have a ton of talent returning, however, and we are going to find out just how good they are this week as they host Oklahoma.
9. Oklahoma State – Offensive guru Dana Holgorsen may have moved on to WVU but QB Brandon Weeden, WR Justin Blackmon and a whole host of offensive talent returns in Stillwater. If there’s an offense that can rival Oklahoma’s it is this one but there are tons of questions marks on a defense that wasn’t very good last year to begin with.
10. South Carolina – Steve Spurrier’s bunch is going to score lots of points this year as they proved in their first two contests and running back Marcus Lattimore is a true Heisman contender. Can the defense improve enough to make a run at the SEC championship?
11. Texas A&M – I can’t remember the last time the Big 12 has been this deep. It is saying something when Texas is probably the fourth most talented team in the conference. The Aggies, in what is most likely their final year in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC, are led by QB Ryan Tannehill and a tremendous defense despite the loss of Von Miller. The Aggies take on Oklahoma State next Saturday in a big-time early season clash.
12. Nebraska – Taylor Martinez is back and should be better with a year of experience under his belt. The defensive front should once again be tremendous with dominant defensive tackle Jared Crick leading the way. Questions at the skill positions and along the offensive line will make the Cornhuskers transition to the Big 10 interesting.
13. Oregon – This might be a little low for the Ducks but I wasn’t quite as high on Chip Kelly’s bunch to start the season either. Oregon’s offensive line was dominated in the championship game last year and had even more question marks going into this season, questions that certainly weren’t answered in their loss to LSU. I do love Darron Thomas and LaMichael James but they are going to shoulder an awful heavy load if this team is going to repeat in the Pac 10.
14. Ohio State – Despite the defections, the suspensions and the turmoil at Ohio State, let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that this team is not extremely talented. The top five recruiting classes that Jim Tressel was continuously bringing in are still there and I suspect the remaining Buckeyes might have something to prove, starting this week against Miami.
15. Arkansas – Arkansas’ bid at making it back-to-back BCS Bowl games took a major hit with the preseason injury to RB Kniles Davis. The Razorbacks have still looked tremendous on offense in their first two games, albeit against a couple of cream puffs. I would be higher on the Hogs if wasn’t for a brutal schedule that includes six teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25, four of those currently in the top 10, and trips to both Alabama and LSU.
16. West Virginia – WVU has gotten off to a slow start in each of their first two games but it is only a matter of time before QB Geno Smith and a talented group of wide receivers hit their stride in Dana Holgorsen’s new offense.
17. Florida – Much like Ohio State, the fabulous talent brought in over the past few recruiting classes is still there in Gainesville and it now falls on new coach Will Muschamp to harness that talent.
18. Arizona State – The Sun Devils brought back a ton of starters from their team a year ago and so far Brock Osweiler has played well at quarterback, the big question mark entering the season.
19. Auburn – I have no idea what to make of this Auburn team. They have looked tremendous at times in their first two games and downright awful at other times but they keep finding ways to win.
20. Michigan State – Although the Spartans return a good bit of talent from last year’s 11-2 squad, including QB Kirk Cousins and RB Edwin Baker, they lost a ton of leadership and talent on defense in LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon.
21. South Florida – It wouldn’t surprise me if West Virginia, South Florida or Pitt won the Big East. South Florida has looked the best so far with an impressive, although somewhat unusual win in South Bend in their opener.
22. Texas – No doubt that Texas has as much pure talent as anyone in the Big 12, and maybe the country, but a QB mess looms large over the program with the new plan being to rotate sophomore Case McCoy (yes that’s Colt’s brother) and freshman David Ash and putting the experienced Garrett Gilbert on the bench.
23. Baylor – No quarterback controversy here as Robert Griffin III is one of the country’s most dynamic athletes and has already led Baylor to a huge win over TCU in what could go down as the game of the year despite being played on opening weekend.
24. Penn State – I like this Penn State team despite the ugly loss to Alabama last week. I only wish that JoePa and his staff would settle on Robert Bolden at quarterback. He is obviously more talented and has a good bit of room to grow over former walk-on Matt McGloin. I expect the Lions to rebound over the next few weeks before taking on the grind of the Big Ten schedule.
I also thought about putting Notre Dame in this spot, but couldn’t pull the trigger after two very strange losses. I’d like to bet that the Fighting Irish and Coach Brian Kelly rebound from these losses and finish the season with at least 8 or 9 wins and firmly entrenched in the top 25.
25. Michigan – There are plenty of teams that could claim this spot this early in the season but after Michigan’s thrilling victory and the excitement Denard Robinson brings on every play, the Wolverines get the nod at this point. Other teams that I considered included USC, TCU, Missouri, Mississippi State and Tennessee.
Not Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh – I am certainly not sugar-coating it when I say that Pitt has looked awful in its first two games allowing a pretty bad Buffalo team to rack up 400 yards in the opener and then surviving with a 35-29 win over a I-AA team in Maine. QB Tino Sunseri has played terribly, the offensive line has looked lost, the linebackers look slow and the pass-coverage has been suspect at best. Add those up and you have what amounts to a pretty poor season on the horizon. That’s the bad news…the good news is that the Panthers are 2-0 and now begin what is the real part of their schedule. Ray Graham looks even better than advertised, the defensive line is every bit as good as it is deep and the Panthers should begin to play better as they get more comfortable in their new offensive and defensive systems.
To be honest, I really do not have a feel for where this season is headed. I think Sunseri will play better than he has. He’s not a superstar but he can be effective, especially with the threat of Graham running the ball. I also think the offensive line and secondary will play better as they become more accustomed to the new schemes. As for the linebackers, I don’t think the new systems gels with the talent on hand and they could remain a work in progress as the season progresses. With a mediocre Big East, it would not shock me one bit to see the Panthers win the conference. It also wouldn’t shock me to see the Panthers stumble to a 7-5 type season. I think we will learn a whole lot more about this team after this week when they make the trip to Iowa to play a solid, disciplined and well-coached Hawkeyes team that should be fired up after losing an overtime game to their in-state rival last week. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Panthers do so we can begin assessing Coach Graham and the new era of Pitt football.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Week 1 NFL Picks
Well my 2011 NFL picks got off to an unlucky start last night by virtually nailing everything about the game but coming up one-yard short on the Saints covering the spread. What a tremendous way to open the season, however, and a great beginning to this season’s MVP race.
My only complaint about the game, and I have to preface this by saying that I think Sean Payton is the best offensive mind in the NFL right now (with apologies to Andy Reid and Peyton Manning), but on the two biggest plays of the game I thought the formations and play-calls were so predictable…especially the fourth down play-action pass when the Saints had receivers spread across the field. The Packers defenders never even hesitated on the run fake and the same thing on the final play when every Packers player sold out to stop the run and a naked bootleg would have let Drew Brees walk into the end zone. Ah well, it’s only one game, 255 more to go.
In case you were wondering, I finished last year above .500 at 127-122-7, but below the coveted 53% mark to make a profit. I promise to improve on that this year…or at least go down trying!
(home teams in caps)
Pittsburgh (+1) over BALTIMORE – Baltimore is a good, solid football team but their weaknesses lie in the secondary and on the offensive line, not a good combination against the Steelers.
Atlanta (-2.5) over CHICAGO – Tempted to pick the upset here but I think Atlanta will be ready to play after their disappointing exit from the playoffs last season.
TAMPA BAY (-1) over Detroit – The Lions should be much improved but I can’t trust them on the road until they prove something. Josh Freeman leads a fourth quarter drive for the win.
KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo – Ryan Fitzpatrick playing on the road against a fast defense, no thanks!
HOUSTON (-8.5) over Indianapolis – I don't think the Colts will be as bad without Manning as most people do, but I don't think they will be very good either.
Tennessee (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – The Jaguars cut their starting quarterback heading into the first game of the season, I don’t think that will work out too well.
Philadelphia (-4) over ST. LOUIS – If you frequent the blog, you know how highly I think of Sam Bradford but Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and that Eagles offense in a dome on that fast turf will be too much.
Cincinnati (+6.5) over CLEVELAND – The Bengals are in for a long rebuilding year but I think they keep this one close.
New York (-3) over WASHINGTON – Eli is going to bounce back in a big way this year and I love his weapons on the outside. The G-Men are going to have problems on the other side of the ball but that shouldn’t be a big problem against the Redskins offense.
Carolina (+7) over ARIZONA – Carolina is going to run, run, run some more and hope their defense can keep them in the game. I think it works enough to keep this one close but Arizona ultimately wins.
San Francisco (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Tavaris Jackson starting on the road, or anywhere for that matter, is not going to lead to many wins. Jim Harbaugh wins his debut as the 49ers coach and Pete Carroll remembers how it was much easier to beat Harbaugh at Stanford when he was at USC and could pay his players more.
Minnesota (+9) over SAN DIEGO – San Diego is a perennial slow-starter and the Vikings are going to be much improved from a year ago. I’m not calling the upset, but I think this one is closer than you would expect.
Dallas (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS – Romo is back and the Cowboys have plenty of weapons around him if Miles Austin is able to play. I was worried about the Cowboys depleted secondary but remembered it will be Mark Sanchez trying to take advantage.
New England (-7) over MIAMI – I bit on Chad Henne a bit too much last year and he has to prove to me that he can be an adequate QB in this league before I back the Dolphins this year. Besides, I’m not going against my Super Bowl pick in week one.
DENVER (-3) over Oakland – The Broncos can really get after the QB and the Raiders are a little shaky up front. Can somebody tell me why this game is on Monday night?
My only complaint about the game, and I have to preface this by saying that I think Sean Payton is the best offensive mind in the NFL right now (with apologies to Andy Reid and Peyton Manning), but on the two biggest plays of the game I thought the formations and play-calls were so predictable…especially the fourth down play-action pass when the Saints had receivers spread across the field. The Packers defenders never even hesitated on the run fake and the same thing on the final play when every Packers player sold out to stop the run and a naked bootleg would have let Drew Brees walk into the end zone. Ah well, it’s only one game, 255 more to go.
In case you were wondering, I finished last year above .500 at 127-122-7, but below the coveted 53% mark to make a profit. I promise to improve on that this year…or at least go down trying!
(home teams in caps)
Pittsburgh (+1) over BALTIMORE – Baltimore is a good, solid football team but their weaknesses lie in the secondary and on the offensive line, not a good combination against the Steelers.
Atlanta (-2.5) over CHICAGO – Tempted to pick the upset here but I think Atlanta will be ready to play after their disappointing exit from the playoffs last season.
TAMPA BAY (-1) over Detroit – The Lions should be much improved but I can’t trust them on the road until they prove something. Josh Freeman leads a fourth quarter drive for the win.
KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo – Ryan Fitzpatrick playing on the road against a fast defense, no thanks!
HOUSTON (-8.5) over Indianapolis – I don't think the Colts will be as bad without Manning as most people do, but I don't think they will be very good either.
Tennessee (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – The Jaguars cut their starting quarterback heading into the first game of the season, I don’t think that will work out too well.
Philadelphia (-4) over ST. LOUIS – If you frequent the blog, you know how highly I think of Sam Bradford but Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and that Eagles offense in a dome on that fast turf will be too much.
Cincinnati (+6.5) over CLEVELAND – The Bengals are in for a long rebuilding year but I think they keep this one close.
New York (-3) over WASHINGTON – Eli is going to bounce back in a big way this year and I love his weapons on the outside. The G-Men are going to have problems on the other side of the ball but that shouldn’t be a big problem against the Redskins offense.
Carolina (+7) over ARIZONA – Carolina is going to run, run, run some more and hope their defense can keep them in the game. I think it works enough to keep this one close but Arizona ultimately wins.
San Francisco (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Tavaris Jackson starting on the road, or anywhere for that matter, is not going to lead to many wins. Jim Harbaugh wins his debut as the 49ers coach and Pete Carroll remembers how it was much easier to beat Harbaugh at Stanford when he was at USC and could pay his players more.
Minnesota (+9) over SAN DIEGO – San Diego is a perennial slow-starter and the Vikings are going to be much improved from a year ago. I’m not calling the upset, but I think this one is closer than you would expect.
Dallas (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS – Romo is back and the Cowboys have plenty of weapons around him if Miles Austin is able to play. I was worried about the Cowboys depleted secondary but remembered it will be Mark Sanchez trying to take advantage.
New England (-7) over MIAMI – I bit on Chad Henne a bit too much last year and he has to prove to me that he can be an adequate QB in this league before I back the Dolphins this year. Besides, I’m not going against my Super Bowl pick in week one.
DENVER (-3) over Oakland – The Broncos can really get after the QB and the Raiders are a little shaky up front. Can somebody tell me why this game is on Monday night?
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Opening Night Prediction
New Orleans @ Green Bay (-4.5). This NFC clash matches the last two Super Bowl Champions and could very well be a preview of this year's NFC Championship game. I love the addition of Mark Ingram to the Saints' offense and I think Sean Payton will have these guys flying around tonight. I expect a high-scoring affair that comes down to the final possesion and when that's the case, I'm taking the points, New Orleans (+4.5).
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
2011 NFL Season Predictions
The Blog is back after an extended break, recharged and ready for the start of the NFL season, the baseball playoffs and the old college gridiron. Today, we dive into the NFL preview, Friday we will be back with the first week's picks and early next week I'll unveil my first top 25 of the college football season, plus a little bit extra on your Pitt Panthers as they head into the real part of their schedule.
If you recall my pre-preseason power rankings for the NFL, really not a lot has changed in the pecking order. Green Bay still has the most loaded roster with New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta hot on their trail in the NFC. New England and Pittsburgh continue to look like the class of the AFC with the Chargers, Jets and Ravens looming in the background. Dallas, Houston and the rest of the NFC North continue to be darkhorses as teams who could jump from last to first. The only real change, and it’s not really a change, is the continued uncertainty about Peyton Manning’s health. If Manning plays 16 games, it is as sure as the Pirates will have a losing season that the Colts will be in the playoffs. Without Manning for part or even all of the season, the AFC South just got a whole lot more interesting.
To steal last season’s opening remarks because frankly, I don’t think I can write it any better: The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with what might be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. The pre-preseason power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2011 NFL season playing out.
AFC East
New England Patriots – 12-4
New York Jets – 10-6
Miami Dolphins – 6-10
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
The Patriots added some veteran star-power to an already star-laden line-up. Tom Brady is probably entering the end of his prime and realizes that he will not have a whole lot more opportunities to win another Super Bowl. The Jets will once again have a tremendous team held back by a below-average quarterback and the Dolphins and Bills may improve some but not enough to gain ground on the Jets and Pats.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4
Baltimore Ravens – 10-6
Cleveland Browns – 6-10
Cincinnati Bengals – 3-13
Funny how much can change in one year. Last year at this time we were discussing how the Steelers could survive the first four games without Ben Roethlisberger and a year later we are nitpicking their weaknesses after appearing in their second Super Bowl in three years. The defense should once again be the best in football and Roethlisberger looks better than ever and has a full complement of weapons to distribute the ball to. Baltimore, meanwhile, saw some turnover on its roster during the offseason. One of the moves I liked best was bringing in Lee Evans from Buffalo to stretch the field. The Week One battle should give one of these teams a big leg up in the division. I also like the direction that Cleveland is heading in and they are hopeful for another step forward from QB Colt McCoy. Cincinnati, meanwhile, begins a rebuilding job with rookies Andy Dalton as their franchise QB and AJ Green as his primary weapon.
AFC South
Houston Texans – 10-6
Indianapolis Colts – 9-7
Tennessee Titans – 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
I am hedging my bets here as I am not sure what to make of Peyton Manning’s injury at this time. If he misses only a couple of weeks, I can still see the Colts making a run at the division or at least a wild-card spot. If Manning cannot return soon, the Colts could slip to below .500 for the first time since 2001. The Texans once again look like the team ready to make the jump into contender status but until they actually do it we have to remain skeptical. Manning’s injury could be just the opening Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson need to win their first division title in franchise history. Tennessee and Jacksonville both begin rebuilding jobs with rookie QBs waiting in the wings to take over their respective offenses. Of the two, Tennessee should be more competitive with veteran Matt Hasselbeck at the helm after the Jaguars cut their veteran starter, David Garrard, just this week.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs – 8-8
Oakland Raiders – 7-9
Denver Broncos – 5-11
The Chargers should return to their spot atop the AFC West and could be right back in the thick of things for the AFC crown if they can correct their special teams miscues and lethargical starts to the season, both very correctable. The Chiefs, meanwhile, could actually be better than they were last year but end up with a lesser record. With an improving, young roster, this is the year they must decide whether Matt Cassel is the right QB for the job. Oakland will likewise take a step back this season after losing a number of key contributors to their 8-8 campaign last year but I continue to like the direction they are heading. Denver could have one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league on defense, which can win some games by itself, but there isn’t a whole lot to like about that offense.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles – 11-5
Dallas Cowboys – 10-6
New York Giants – 9-7
Washington Redskins – 5-11
I can’t decide whether this or the NFC North is the best division in football this year. Green Bay is the best team on paper, Washington is the worst, but the top three of the East, overall, are slightly better than top three in the North. You’re probably saying “Who cares” and you’re right. It should be interesting to see how the Eagles offseason acquisitions mesh in Philadelphia, how Tony Romo returns from his injury and how the Giants adjust to a slew of injuries to their defense this preseason. One thing this division does not lack is entertainment.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers – 11-5
Minnesota Vikings – 9-7
Chicago Bears – 7-9
Detroit Lions – 7-9
Not much more needs to be said about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but boy do I want to put the Vikings in the playoffs as my sleeper team. I think they will be competitive, as will the Bears and Lions, but all three don’t quite stack up with the NFC elite.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 12-4
Atlanta Falcons – 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers– 7-9
Carolina Panthers – 4-12
The Saints are probably the one true contender being least talked about this offseason and I am not sure why. With Sean Payton and Drew Brees controlling the offense they are going to be a force and rookie RB Mark Ingram could have a tremendous impact. Speaking of rookie impacts, Julio Jones is expected to have one in Atlanta as a compliment to Roddy White at receiver. There are no more excuses for Matty Ice as it is time to take the next step on the quarterback latter (something that I question if he has it in him). Tampa Bay, much like the Chiefs, could actually be better than they were last year but finish with a worse record but like the Chiefs you have to like their young, improving roster. Carolina will bring up the cellar in this division as they take their lumps while Cam Newton learns on the job.
NFC West
St. Louis Rams – 9-7
Arizona Cardinals – 8-8
San Francisco 49ers – 6-10
Seattle Seahawks – 5-11
Don’t think anyone could argue with you if you picked any one of these teams to win the NFC West. On second thought, Tavaris Jackson is the starting quarterback in Seattle so that automatically relegates the Seahawks to the basement. While I think Matt Ryan has reached his potential as a starting QB, we are only beginning to see what Sam Bradford can do. I expect the Cards and Rams to battle for divisional supremacy with Bradford and the Rams ultimately getting the job done. As for the Niners, the good news is they have a real coach in Jim Harbaugh now…the bad news is that Alex Smith is still their starting QB.
Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers (Yes, I picked him last year. I meant to say Super Bowl MVP)
Offensive Player of the Year – Philip Rivers
Defensive Player of the Year – Darrelle Revis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Mark Ingram
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Von Miller
Coach of the Year – Gary Kubiak
Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore, New York over Houston
Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis
Pittsburgh over New York, New England over San Diego
New Orleans over Atlanta, Philadelphia over Green Bay
New England over Pittsburgh, New Orleans over Philadelphia
Super Bowl XLVI
New England over New Orleans
If you recall my pre-preseason power rankings for the NFL, really not a lot has changed in the pecking order. Green Bay still has the most loaded roster with New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta hot on their trail in the NFC. New England and Pittsburgh continue to look like the class of the AFC with the Chargers, Jets and Ravens looming in the background. Dallas, Houston and the rest of the NFC North continue to be darkhorses as teams who could jump from last to first. The only real change, and it’s not really a change, is the continued uncertainty about Peyton Manning’s health. If Manning plays 16 games, it is as sure as the Pirates will have a losing season that the Colts will be in the playoffs. Without Manning for part or even all of the season, the AFC South just got a whole lot more interesting.
To steal last season’s opening remarks because frankly, I don’t think I can write it any better: The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with what might be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. The pre-preseason power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2011 NFL season playing out.
AFC East
New England Patriots – 12-4
New York Jets – 10-6
Miami Dolphins – 6-10
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
The Patriots added some veteran star-power to an already star-laden line-up. Tom Brady is probably entering the end of his prime and realizes that he will not have a whole lot more opportunities to win another Super Bowl. The Jets will once again have a tremendous team held back by a below-average quarterback and the Dolphins and Bills may improve some but not enough to gain ground on the Jets and Pats.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4
Baltimore Ravens – 10-6
Cleveland Browns – 6-10
Cincinnati Bengals – 3-13
Funny how much can change in one year. Last year at this time we were discussing how the Steelers could survive the first four games without Ben Roethlisberger and a year later we are nitpicking their weaknesses after appearing in their second Super Bowl in three years. The defense should once again be the best in football and Roethlisberger looks better than ever and has a full complement of weapons to distribute the ball to. Baltimore, meanwhile, saw some turnover on its roster during the offseason. One of the moves I liked best was bringing in Lee Evans from Buffalo to stretch the field. The Week One battle should give one of these teams a big leg up in the division. I also like the direction that Cleveland is heading in and they are hopeful for another step forward from QB Colt McCoy. Cincinnati, meanwhile, begins a rebuilding job with rookies Andy Dalton as their franchise QB and AJ Green as his primary weapon.
AFC South
Houston Texans – 10-6
Indianapolis Colts – 9-7
Tennessee Titans – 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
I am hedging my bets here as I am not sure what to make of Peyton Manning’s injury at this time. If he misses only a couple of weeks, I can still see the Colts making a run at the division or at least a wild-card spot. If Manning cannot return soon, the Colts could slip to below .500 for the first time since 2001. The Texans once again look like the team ready to make the jump into contender status but until they actually do it we have to remain skeptical. Manning’s injury could be just the opening Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson need to win their first division title in franchise history. Tennessee and Jacksonville both begin rebuilding jobs with rookie QBs waiting in the wings to take over their respective offenses. Of the two, Tennessee should be more competitive with veteran Matt Hasselbeck at the helm after the Jaguars cut their veteran starter, David Garrard, just this week.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs – 8-8
Oakland Raiders – 7-9
Denver Broncos – 5-11
The Chargers should return to their spot atop the AFC West and could be right back in the thick of things for the AFC crown if they can correct their special teams miscues and lethargical starts to the season, both very correctable. The Chiefs, meanwhile, could actually be better than they were last year but end up with a lesser record. With an improving, young roster, this is the year they must decide whether Matt Cassel is the right QB for the job. Oakland will likewise take a step back this season after losing a number of key contributors to their 8-8 campaign last year but I continue to like the direction they are heading. Denver could have one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league on defense, which can win some games by itself, but there isn’t a whole lot to like about that offense.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles – 11-5
Dallas Cowboys – 10-6
New York Giants – 9-7
Washington Redskins – 5-11
I can’t decide whether this or the NFC North is the best division in football this year. Green Bay is the best team on paper, Washington is the worst, but the top three of the East, overall, are slightly better than top three in the North. You’re probably saying “Who cares” and you’re right. It should be interesting to see how the Eagles offseason acquisitions mesh in Philadelphia, how Tony Romo returns from his injury and how the Giants adjust to a slew of injuries to their defense this preseason. One thing this division does not lack is entertainment.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers – 11-5
Minnesota Vikings – 9-7
Chicago Bears – 7-9
Detroit Lions – 7-9
Not much more needs to be said about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but boy do I want to put the Vikings in the playoffs as my sleeper team. I think they will be competitive, as will the Bears and Lions, but all three don’t quite stack up with the NFC elite.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 12-4
Atlanta Falcons – 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers– 7-9
Carolina Panthers – 4-12
The Saints are probably the one true contender being least talked about this offseason and I am not sure why. With Sean Payton and Drew Brees controlling the offense they are going to be a force and rookie RB Mark Ingram could have a tremendous impact. Speaking of rookie impacts, Julio Jones is expected to have one in Atlanta as a compliment to Roddy White at receiver. There are no more excuses for Matty Ice as it is time to take the next step on the quarterback latter (something that I question if he has it in him). Tampa Bay, much like the Chiefs, could actually be better than they were last year but finish with a worse record but like the Chiefs you have to like their young, improving roster. Carolina will bring up the cellar in this division as they take their lumps while Cam Newton learns on the job.
NFC West
St. Louis Rams – 9-7
Arizona Cardinals – 8-8
San Francisco 49ers – 6-10
Seattle Seahawks – 5-11
Don’t think anyone could argue with you if you picked any one of these teams to win the NFC West. On second thought, Tavaris Jackson is the starting quarterback in Seattle so that automatically relegates the Seahawks to the basement. While I think Matt Ryan has reached his potential as a starting QB, we are only beginning to see what Sam Bradford can do. I expect the Cards and Rams to battle for divisional supremacy with Bradford and the Rams ultimately getting the job done. As for the Niners, the good news is they have a real coach in Jim Harbaugh now…the bad news is that Alex Smith is still their starting QB.
Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers (Yes, I picked him last year. I meant to say Super Bowl MVP)
Offensive Player of the Year – Philip Rivers
Defensive Player of the Year – Darrelle Revis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Mark Ingram
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Von Miller
Coach of the Year – Gary Kubiak
Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore, New York over Houston
Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis
Pittsburgh over New York, New England over San Diego
New Orleans over Atlanta, Philadelphia over Green Bay
New England over Pittsburgh, New Orleans over Philadelphia
Super Bowl XLVI
New England over New Orleans
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Pre-Pre-Season Power Rankings
With the free agent frenzy that went on after the new NFL year began it was impossible to keep up real time with the activity. Instead of wrapping up all of the action in a long post, and I am sure there is still plenty to come with roughly 200 players still on the market, let’s do this year’s first edition of the Power Rankings with a special emphasis on the offseason moves. We’ll call this the Pre-Pre-Season Power Rankings!
1. Green Bay – The Packers did not make many moves this offseason and why would they. The Pack were easily the best team in the playoffs last year and not only do they bring almost the entire team back, they bring some very valuable pieces off the injured list to add to an already stacked roster. Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are going to make defending Aaron Rodgers that much tougher!
2. New England – I absolutely loved the Patriots bringing in Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Low-risk, high-reward moves that could make the Pats downright scary if they work out. Haynesworth, in particular, should have plenty left in the tank and Bill Belichick will probably bring out the best in him while Ochocinco could thrive in an offense where Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around.
3. Pittsburgh – The offensive line is still a question mark but aren’t we sick of saying that? Roethlisberger is going to get the job done regardless of who is in front of him. Pittsburgh’s defense is still easily the league’s top unit and if everyone can stay healthy the Steelers will be knocking on the door like usual.
4. Philadelphia – Ahhh, the offseason darlings. I loved every move the Eagles made and in particular bringing in Vince Young to back-up Michael Vick, who will get hurt at some point. I have been championing that move for a while now on both accounts. Philly still has some question marks on the o-line and in the linebacking corps but in the NFL these days everyone has question marks. I love Michael Vick as a player and have often said he could be my QB anytime as he is going to win ballgames, but he is the sole reason I have Philadelphia fourth. Despite my appreciation for him, I still question Vick’s ability to stay healthy and his ability to win three straight games in the playoffs where you are going to be forced to win at least one game with your arm.
5. Indianapolis – The sleeping giant! The Colts weren’t busy this offseason but they get all of their injured offensive players back. Put a healthy team around Manning and this team could easily gain home-field advantage in the playoffs where nobody wants to play the Colts on that turf.
6. New York Jets – Similar to Philadelphia, the Jets had a very active couple of days in free agency culminating with a resigning of Santonio Holmes and the addition of Plaxico Burress. Mark Sanchez needs all the help he can get because he is still the reason this team trails the other AFC contenders when it comes to Super Bowl chances.
7. New Orleans – Love the Mark Ingram draft pick who gives the Saints a true RB that they can pound inside and catch the ball out of the backfield and the addition of Darren Sproles should help offset the loss of Reggie Bush. Sean Payton is the league’s best offensive coach and I expect another lethal attack in ‘Nawlins. The defense should be improved and if I had to guess right now, the Saints could be the Packers biggest obstacle to the Super Bowl and not the Eagles.
8. Atlanta – The Falcons added Julio Jones in the draft to compliment Roddy White and brought in Ray Edwards to get after the quarterback. The Falcons have proven they can do it in the regular season but now need Matt Ryan to take another step forward if they are going to do it in the playoffs.
9. Baltimore – Stingy defense, Ray Rice, another year of development for Joe Flacco and the Ravens should be right where they always are and that’s just a step below the AFC elite. I did like the signing of Vonta Leach to be a lead blocker for Rice and new back-up Ricky Williams who is as good as any backup RB in the league.
10. Dallas – Nobody is talking about Dallas these days and that might be a good thing for a team that has been overhyped the past few years. Don’t be fooled, however, as the Cowboys still have a roster loaded with talent and with the ouster of Wade Phillips as coach maybe they can regain some of their lost swagger. The key to their season will be the play of the offensive line and giving Tony Romo time to get the ball out to their dangerous weapons on the outside.
11. San Diego – Another team that was severely disappointing last year but remains extremely talented. I expect last year to be more of a blip than a downward spiral for both the Cowboys and Chargers. Philip Rivers should carry this team back to their normal place atop the AFC West standings.
12. New York Giants – I guess we will call this part of the rankings the 2010 underachievers as big things were expected from numbers 10-12 and all fell short of expectations. The biggest signing the G-Men made was retaining RB Ahmad Bradshaw, part of a pretty strong tandem with Brandon Jacobs. The Giants need improved secondary play and more consistent play from Eli Manning to return to the playoffs.
13. Chicago Bears – The NFC North is the best division in football and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bears, Vikings or Lions finish second behind Green Bay. For now let’s give the edge to the Bears who are fresh off a NFC Championship game appearance and will be in their second year under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Bears brought in Roy Williams to give Jay Cutler another weapon and are expected to use Devin Hester even more on offense.
14. St. Louis – Somebody has to win the NFC West right? The Rams are poised to be this year’s breakout team with Sam Bradford now having a year under his belt. I expect a tremendous improvement from the young star and continued improvement from the young defense. I thought the Rams should have brought in more help around Bradford but they are hoping that Mike Sims-Walker can be that go-to wide receiver.
15. Houston – The Texans tried to shore up their atrocious secondary by signing cornerback Johnathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning (two guys who don’t know how to spell their own first names by the way). Anything would be an improvement on last year’s secondary but Joseph could be the impact corner this team needs. We know Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and company are going to put up points but you have to stop somebody to win.
16. Minnesota – I know that I am mostly on my own with this one but I kind of like this Vikings team with the addition of Donovan McNabb. I thought they should have done more to keep Sidney Rice on board but this team’s biggest problem last year was turnovers and that is something that McNabb should help. The Vikings still have a lot of veteran talent and are only one year removed from their near miss of a Super Bowl appearance. A whole lot of Adrian Peterson and less turnovers could have this team right back on the cusp of the playoffs.
17. Kansas City – The next two teams were the surprise teams of 2010 and are poised to take a step back. I love Kansas City’s young defense, however, and expect the unit to continue to get better. I don’t love Matt Cassel but the Chiefs are doing their best to surround him with as much talent as possible after drafting Jonathan Baldwin of Pitt and signing Steve Breaston as a free agent (that or they love Pittsburgh kids at WR).
18. Tampa Bay – Love me some Josh Freeman. Seriously, the young QB reminds me a ton of Ben Roethlisberger albeit with a little less natural ability. The Bucs weren’t active in the free agent market despite having a ton of cap room to work with but did do a good job resigning their own free agents. It will be Freeman’s development, however, and how the team deals with last year’s progress that will be the keys to the Bucs season.
19. Detroit – It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Lions in the playoffs and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them finish 4-12 in the brutal NFC North. The key will be Matt Stafford’s health and a major improvement in the secondary. Stafford has shown flashes of elite talent but hasn’t shown the durability or consistency to prove he can lead a team. The Lions signed a pair of free-agent RBs in Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison to replace the rookie RB Mikel Leshoure who has already been lost for the season and signed Eric Wright and Erik Coleman to help upgrade the secondary. The defensive line is dominant but can the back seven hold up its end?
20. Jacksonville – The Jaguars did their best to upgrade a defensive unit that was downright terrible last year with the signings Paul Posluszny and Clint Session (is it me or is there an absolute ton of Pittsburgh connections occurring!) at linebacker and Drew Coleman and Dawan Landry in the secondary. The additions will help but will it be enough? Offensively the team will rely on David Garrard and MJD again after surrendering their second round pick to move up to draft QB Blaine Gabbert.
21. Miami – The Dolphins were another active team in the free agent market but were not able to acquire a QB to compete with or take the place of Chad Henne. Reggie Bush is explosive and the Dolphins went all offense in the draft but none of that will matter unless Henne’s play greatly improves.
22. Arizona – The Cardinals made the move to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Eagles a year too late. The Cards were the most talented team in the division last year but failed to win the division because of awful quarterback play. Now the Rams have probably passed them by and the 49ers and Seahawks aren’t far behind, if they are even behind at all.
23. San Francisco – The 49ers, likewise, were done in by poor quarterback play last year but decided to get rid of the coach and keep the QB. Jim Harbaugh seems like an excellent coach but I doubt even he will be able to get very far with Alex Smith in control of the offense. I don’t think Smith is terrible, but he is more of a good back-up than starter. The 49ers did sign some big names such as Braylon Edwards, Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner but there are still significant holes on this team.
24. Seattle – To be brutally honest, the entire NFC West left me scratching my head this offseason. The division is there for the taking this year and yet no team made a significant splash to upgrade their roster. Seattle did a great job in bringing in Sidney Rice and Zach Miller as offensive weapons but have pretty much no one to get them the ball. What’s worse is that Matt Leinart thought it was a better career move to stay a back-up in Houston rather than compete with Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst in Seattle….huh?
25. Tennessee – I have a buddy who is pretty high on Tennessee as they bring back a handful of injured players from last year. I’m not so high as I thought much of the Titans past success was brought by the stability and leadership of Jeff Fisher. The task of rebuilding is now left to Mike Munchak. Munchak drafted Jake Locker to be his QB of the future and brought in Matt Hasselbeck to be his QB of now. The biggest news of the offseason though is the holdout of RB Chris Johnson. Even with Johnson, I think this team struggles to approach .500.
26. Oakland – The Raiders were surprisingly quiet during the short free agent period and I guess that had as much to do with their being over the salary cap than anything else. The team showed marked improvement last year under former head coach Tom Cable and it is now left to Hue Jackson to continue that improvement. I think the Raiders take a step back this year before moving forward again.
27. Denver – Denver would have been lower on this list had they traded quarterback Kyle Orton as it was rumored they were trying to. The Broncos simply aren’t very talented and that will only lead to more Tebow controversy as the season progresses.
28. Carolina – Carolina made its splash in the draft by selecting Cam Newton #1 overall and all signs point to the Heisman winner being behind center from day one. Carolina also spent a ton of money on their own players despite their 2-14 record a year ago. Expect to see Newton handing the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart a ton this year as the Panthers go through growing pains with the young QB.
29. Cleveland – As with many of the bottom-tier teams, Cleveland’s hope depends on the development of a young quarterback in Colt McCoy. The Browns brought in very little help for the young QB besides 2nd round draft pick Greg Little and with the Steelers and Ravens in the division it could be a long season. The good news is that the Browns might not be the worst team in their own state!
30. Washington – The Redskins focused most of their efforts this offseason on improving the defense while resigning the feared passing combo of Rex Grossman and Santana Moss. I wonder if Mike Shanahan wishes he stayed retired at this point.
31. Buffalo – The Bills signed Brad Smith, Nick Barnett, Buster Davis and Tyler Thigpen this offseason. That sounds more like a boy band than a football team.
32. Cincinnati – I do like the Bengals bringing in Nate Clements and Bruce Gradkowski (another Pittsburgh connection!) but let’s face it, this team is going to have a rough transition from the Carson Palmer era. They do have some nice young talent but it could be a couple of years before they are back to competing.
1. Green Bay – The Packers did not make many moves this offseason and why would they. The Pack were easily the best team in the playoffs last year and not only do they bring almost the entire team back, they bring some very valuable pieces off the injured list to add to an already stacked roster. Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are going to make defending Aaron Rodgers that much tougher!
2. New England – I absolutely loved the Patriots bringing in Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Low-risk, high-reward moves that could make the Pats downright scary if they work out. Haynesworth, in particular, should have plenty left in the tank and Bill Belichick will probably bring out the best in him while Ochocinco could thrive in an offense where Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around.
3. Pittsburgh – The offensive line is still a question mark but aren’t we sick of saying that? Roethlisberger is going to get the job done regardless of who is in front of him. Pittsburgh’s defense is still easily the league’s top unit and if everyone can stay healthy the Steelers will be knocking on the door like usual.
4. Philadelphia – Ahhh, the offseason darlings. I loved every move the Eagles made and in particular bringing in Vince Young to back-up Michael Vick, who will get hurt at some point. I have been championing that move for a while now on both accounts. Philly still has some question marks on the o-line and in the linebacking corps but in the NFL these days everyone has question marks. I love Michael Vick as a player and have often said he could be my QB anytime as he is going to win ballgames, but he is the sole reason I have Philadelphia fourth. Despite my appreciation for him, I still question Vick’s ability to stay healthy and his ability to win three straight games in the playoffs where you are going to be forced to win at least one game with your arm.
5. Indianapolis – The sleeping giant! The Colts weren’t busy this offseason but they get all of their injured offensive players back. Put a healthy team around Manning and this team could easily gain home-field advantage in the playoffs where nobody wants to play the Colts on that turf.
6. New York Jets – Similar to Philadelphia, the Jets had a very active couple of days in free agency culminating with a resigning of Santonio Holmes and the addition of Plaxico Burress. Mark Sanchez needs all the help he can get because he is still the reason this team trails the other AFC contenders when it comes to Super Bowl chances.
7. New Orleans – Love the Mark Ingram draft pick who gives the Saints a true RB that they can pound inside and catch the ball out of the backfield and the addition of Darren Sproles should help offset the loss of Reggie Bush. Sean Payton is the league’s best offensive coach and I expect another lethal attack in ‘Nawlins. The defense should be improved and if I had to guess right now, the Saints could be the Packers biggest obstacle to the Super Bowl and not the Eagles.
8. Atlanta – The Falcons added Julio Jones in the draft to compliment Roddy White and brought in Ray Edwards to get after the quarterback. The Falcons have proven they can do it in the regular season but now need Matt Ryan to take another step forward if they are going to do it in the playoffs.
9. Baltimore – Stingy defense, Ray Rice, another year of development for Joe Flacco and the Ravens should be right where they always are and that’s just a step below the AFC elite. I did like the signing of Vonta Leach to be a lead blocker for Rice and new back-up Ricky Williams who is as good as any backup RB in the league.
10. Dallas – Nobody is talking about Dallas these days and that might be a good thing for a team that has been overhyped the past few years. Don’t be fooled, however, as the Cowboys still have a roster loaded with talent and with the ouster of Wade Phillips as coach maybe they can regain some of their lost swagger. The key to their season will be the play of the offensive line and giving Tony Romo time to get the ball out to their dangerous weapons on the outside.
11. San Diego – Another team that was severely disappointing last year but remains extremely talented. I expect last year to be more of a blip than a downward spiral for both the Cowboys and Chargers. Philip Rivers should carry this team back to their normal place atop the AFC West standings.
12. New York Giants – I guess we will call this part of the rankings the 2010 underachievers as big things were expected from numbers 10-12 and all fell short of expectations. The biggest signing the G-Men made was retaining RB Ahmad Bradshaw, part of a pretty strong tandem with Brandon Jacobs. The Giants need improved secondary play and more consistent play from Eli Manning to return to the playoffs.
13. Chicago Bears – The NFC North is the best division in football and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bears, Vikings or Lions finish second behind Green Bay. For now let’s give the edge to the Bears who are fresh off a NFC Championship game appearance and will be in their second year under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Bears brought in Roy Williams to give Jay Cutler another weapon and are expected to use Devin Hester even more on offense.
14. St. Louis – Somebody has to win the NFC West right? The Rams are poised to be this year’s breakout team with Sam Bradford now having a year under his belt. I expect a tremendous improvement from the young star and continued improvement from the young defense. I thought the Rams should have brought in more help around Bradford but they are hoping that Mike Sims-Walker can be that go-to wide receiver.
15. Houston – The Texans tried to shore up their atrocious secondary by signing cornerback Johnathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning (two guys who don’t know how to spell their own first names by the way). Anything would be an improvement on last year’s secondary but Joseph could be the impact corner this team needs. We know Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and company are going to put up points but you have to stop somebody to win.
16. Minnesota – I know that I am mostly on my own with this one but I kind of like this Vikings team with the addition of Donovan McNabb. I thought they should have done more to keep Sidney Rice on board but this team’s biggest problem last year was turnovers and that is something that McNabb should help. The Vikings still have a lot of veteran talent and are only one year removed from their near miss of a Super Bowl appearance. A whole lot of Adrian Peterson and less turnovers could have this team right back on the cusp of the playoffs.
17. Kansas City – The next two teams were the surprise teams of 2010 and are poised to take a step back. I love Kansas City’s young defense, however, and expect the unit to continue to get better. I don’t love Matt Cassel but the Chiefs are doing their best to surround him with as much talent as possible after drafting Jonathan Baldwin of Pitt and signing Steve Breaston as a free agent (that or they love Pittsburgh kids at WR).
18. Tampa Bay – Love me some Josh Freeman. Seriously, the young QB reminds me a ton of Ben Roethlisberger albeit with a little less natural ability. The Bucs weren’t active in the free agent market despite having a ton of cap room to work with but did do a good job resigning their own free agents. It will be Freeman’s development, however, and how the team deals with last year’s progress that will be the keys to the Bucs season.
19. Detroit – It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Lions in the playoffs and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them finish 4-12 in the brutal NFC North. The key will be Matt Stafford’s health and a major improvement in the secondary. Stafford has shown flashes of elite talent but hasn’t shown the durability or consistency to prove he can lead a team. The Lions signed a pair of free-agent RBs in Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison to replace the rookie RB Mikel Leshoure who has already been lost for the season and signed Eric Wright and Erik Coleman to help upgrade the secondary. The defensive line is dominant but can the back seven hold up its end?
20. Jacksonville – The Jaguars did their best to upgrade a defensive unit that was downright terrible last year with the signings Paul Posluszny and Clint Session (is it me or is there an absolute ton of Pittsburgh connections occurring!) at linebacker and Drew Coleman and Dawan Landry in the secondary. The additions will help but will it be enough? Offensively the team will rely on David Garrard and MJD again after surrendering their second round pick to move up to draft QB Blaine Gabbert.
21. Miami – The Dolphins were another active team in the free agent market but were not able to acquire a QB to compete with or take the place of Chad Henne. Reggie Bush is explosive and the Dolphins went all offense in the draft but none of that will matter unless Henne’s play greatly improves.
22. Arizona – The Cardinals made the move to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Eagles a year too late. The Cards were the most talented team in the division last year but failed to win the division because of awful quarterback play. Now the Rams have probably passed them by and the 49ers and Seahawks aren’t far behind, if they are even behind at all.
23. San Francisco – The 49ers, likewise, were done in by poor quarterback play last year but decided to get rid of the coach and keep the QB. Jim Harbaugh seems like an excellent coach but I doubt even he will be able to get very far with Alex Smith in control of the offense. I don’t think Smith is terrible, but he is more of a good back-up than starter. The 49ers did sign some big names such as Braylon Edwards, Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner but there are still significant holes on this team.
24. Seattle – To be brutally honest, the entire NFC West left me scratching my head this offseason. The division is there for the taking this year and yet no team made a significant splash to upgrade their roster. Seattle did a great job in bringing in Sidney Rice and Zach Miller as offensive weapons but have pretty much no one to get them the ball. What’s worse is that Matt Leinart thought it was a better career move to stay a back-up in Houston rather than compete with Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst in Seattle….huh?
25. Tennessee – I have a buddy who is pretty high on Tennessee as they bring back a handful of injured players from last year. I’m not so high as I thought much of the Titans past success was brought by the stability and leadership of Jeff Fisher. The task of rebuilding is now left to Mike Munchak. Munchak drafted Jake Locker to be his QB of the future and brought in Matt Hasselbeck to be his QB of now. The biggest news of the offseason though is the holdout of RB Chris Johnson. Even with Johnson, I think this team struggles to approach .500.
26. Oakland – The Raiders were surprisingly quiet during the short free agent period and I guess that had as much to do with their being over the salary cap than anything else. The team showed marked improvement last year under former head coach Tom Cable and it is now left to Hue Jackson to continue that improvement. I think the Raiders take a step back this year before moving forward again.
27. Denver – Denver would have been lower on this list had they traded quarterback Kyle Orton as it was rumored they were trying to. The Broncos simply aren’t very talented and that will only lead to more Tebow controversy as the season progresses.
28. Carolina – Carolina made its splash in the draft by selecting Cam Newton #1 overall and all signs point to the Heisman winner being behind center from day one. Carolina also spent a ton of money on their own players despite their 2-14 record a year ago. Expect to see Newton handing the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart a ton this year as the Panthers go through growing pains with the young QB.
29. Cleveland – As with many of the bottom-tier teams, Cleveland’s hope depends on the development of a young quarterback in Colt McCoy. The Browns brought in very little help for the young QB besides 2nd round draft pick Greg Little and with the Steelers and Ravens in the division it could be a long season. The good news is that the Browns might not be the worst team in their own state!
30. Washington – The Redskins focused most of their efforts this offseason on improving the defense while resigning the feared passing combo of Rex Grossman and Santana Moss. I wonder if Mike Shanahan wishes he stayed retired at this point.
31. Buffalo – The Bills signed Brad Smith, Nick Barnett, Buster Davis and Tyler Thigpen this offseason. That sounds more like a boy band than a football team.
32. Cincinnati – I do like the Bengals bringing in Nate Clements and Bruce Gradkowski (another Pittsburgh connection!) but let’s face it, this team is going to have a rough transition from the Carson Palmer era. They do have some nice young talent but it could be a couple of years before they are back to competing.
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