MLB Preview Chat (Part II)

Thanks everyone for coming back for Part II of our MLB Preview Chat. Today we will discuss our World Series predictions, the major awards in each league and finish it up with some fantasy baseball discussion. To read Part I of the chat, click here.

(Editor’s note: Just like Part I, this was a fast moving dialogue that touched on a ton of subjects. Spare us a few typos or broken English, I tried my best to clean it up.)

(Editor’s note II: The whole conversation is pretty long. Take your time, print it out, read the entire discussion at your leisure. I think hardcore and casual baseball fans will enjoy it alike.)


Me: We were talking about Jason Heyward, and the big shoes he has to fill as a 20-year old rookie, does he win the NL Rookie of the Year?

Curt: Heyward is going to be decent this year. I don't think ROY though.

Tom: He's probably a 1:2 favorite.

Me: Who do you have Curt? Is Pedro Alvarez on your list?

Tom: Strasburg and Aroldis are on the list. Pedro, Jason Heyward too. Maybe the Giants will come to their senses and give Buster Posey a shot. Alcides Escobar (shortstop for the Brewers) I believe still has rookie eligibility as well.

Curt: I would go with Strasburg over Heyward. More prepared to dominate.

Me: Tom is referring to Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban defector that the Reds signed in the offseason that has a reported 100mph fastball. Is this the most excited Reds' fans have been for a player since signing Griffey, Jr. Tom?

Tom: Homer's first start was exciting. And Jay Bruce shredded the Majors for 3 weeks when he came up after being named the #1 minor league prospect by Baseball America the year before. But Aroldis has to be the most exciting signing in some time.

Tom: That team that signed Griffey was a play-in game away from the playoffs and everything fell apart after his contract.

Me: Strasburg may not start until June though in the Majors, will he dominant enough over the final four months to pass Heyward's full year? I think he could, as we have seen it in the past, but the Nats may shut him down at the end of the year as well.

Tom: Strasburg is on the Lincecum plan. Lincecum made 5 minor league starts and was in the Majors the first week of May. I have to think Strasburg is on the same schedule.

Me: I was going to bring up Jay Bruce in the breakout player part, but first let's get a consensus on the National League division picks which I don’t think we did earlier (in Part I of the preview).

Tom: Mark Prior was up in mid-May as well.

Me: Cards, Phils and Braves as wildcard seem like the consensus with a wide open West and 3 different votes. Any hope for the Mets or Marlins?

Tom: As long as the Mets are the Mets, they don't have any hope.

Me: Correction; you two voted for the Rockies out West, I was the lone soldier on the Dodgers. So we have the Cards, Phillies, Rockies and Braves as our consensus playoff teams.

Curt: Mets are going to be terrible.

Tom: The Marlins have some interesting young arms in Josh Johnson and Rickey Nolasco, but they don't have enough behind Hanley I don't think in the lineup.

Curt: Last year they blamed injuries, this year they will find out they are not very good. Fish have a better chance than the Mets, those arms are volatile though, don't trust them to all be good enough at once.

Me: If the Mets are healthy though, can't a line-up with Reyes-Beltran-Wright-Bay-Delgado compete with anybody?

Tom: And yes, I'm on a first name basis with Hanley Ramirez and Aroldis Chapman. That isn't their lineup though. It's Angel Pagan-Luis Castillo-David Wright-Jason Bay-Daniel Murphy-Jeff Francoeur-Rod Barajas-Alex Cora.

Me: It's what they hope is their line-up at some point though isn't it? And I know, their pitching has way too many question marks, but there is talent there.

Tom: Those guys are retreads and bums.

Curt: Who is the number two starter, Maine or Pelfrey I guess.

Tom: Pelfrey then Maine, Ollie and Niese.

Me: Yea, probably not enough there, let's move on.

Me: We discussed NL ROY, Strasburg and Heyward are probably the leading candidates. Give me your MVPs, Cy Youngs, and AL ROY...

Tom: I'll hold off on NL Cy Young because we have yet to draft our fantasy squads. Unless you guys promise not to draft him…

Curt: Chase, Roy in NL

Curt: Javier is in the AL now, you can have Harang obviously.

Me: Haha, sorry folks, insider jokes on fantasy baseball there. We won't draft him, who is your NL Cy Young?

Tom: I'll go with Lincecum and King Felix for the Cy Youngs.

Tom: MVPs are what they should have been the last decade, Pujols and ARod.

Me: I'm going Lincecum and Pujols until they prove otherwise in the NL. Curt, drawing a blank, who's Chase? And I'm going Heyward ROY in the NL.

Tom: AL Roy = Neftali

Curt: Evan Longoria, Felix AL. Chase Utley, they’ll (the voters) want to get him his MVP. Plus the Phillies are going to win a lot.

Me: Oh ok, you put ROY, that's Chase for MVP, got it.

Tom: And if the Indians cut the cord on whoever Lou Marson is, Carlos Santana is in the running for AL ROY.

Me: I also like King Felix (Hernandez) and A-Rod in the AL.

Curt: Roy H. for Cy in the NL.

Me: Neftali? Is he closing?

Tom: He's starting.

Curt: Hard not to like Felix with that park and defense.

Me: Tom is referring to Neftali Feliz, the Rangers young phenom, also with a near 100mph fastball.

Tom: I think he's starting at least, possibly not, however. Scott Sizemore is on my list as well.

Me: Rookie class in the AL is not what it is in the NL. I'll go Scott Sizemore as well, the starting 2B for the Tigers. They did allow Polanco to walk to make room for Sizemore.

Tom: Yes they did. Sizemore would have out-hit Polanco last season.

Curt: Austin Jackson is going to get huge opportunity.

Tom: Yes he is, and we'll find out he stinks.

Curt: I’m not that big on him either, Yank hype.

Tom: When he goes .250/.310/.390, as a 24 year old or however old he is.

Me: Ha, another overhyped Yankee prospect included in the Curtis Granderson deal this offseason. Great deal for the Yanks I thought, btw.

Curt: Ill have confidence Jennings gets up and gets AB's that’s my pick for AL ROY.

Tom: Tough to play a guy that went .183/.245/.239 against LHP last season. You simply cannot play that (referring to Granderson for the Yanks).

Curt: Can't hit LHP at all. You are correct, he cannot be in the lineup against lefties.

Me: Tough to platoon a guy making that kind of cash though.

Curt: The split is awful, he makes it look like Garrett Jones crushes LHP.

Tom: Make AJ Burnett play CF for all I care, he'll hit LHP better than that.

Me: Should they play Gardner in CF is what you guys would propose against lefties?

Curt: Have to do something. If that is who they have then yea for sure.

Tom: They still need somebody to play for Granderson against LHP in left field then.

Curt: I'm not sure if the Yanks realize that.

Tom: Need a LF then, Randy Winn I guess.

Curt: .210/.270/.344 is Granderson’s career split against lefties.

Me: Yea, I think that's what they signed Winn for anyways.

Tom: Randy Winn isn't exactly Josh Willingham against LHP either. But he's better than whatever Granderson can do against lefties.

Me: Ok, Give me your World Series predictions...

Curt: Phil over Yanks, two best teams I think pretty clearly.

Tom: Give me a classic matchup of BoSox over Cards in 6.

Me: I'm going Phillies over Yankees as well. Taking the Phils with Halladay, a true Yankee killer! Halladay is MVP, picking up the Game 7 win. One of the best pitchers of this era will finally get his due.

Me: Ok guys, before we get to your breakout players this year, I wanted to discuss something I heard on the radio last night, especially since we were just discussing Granderson. Who had the better offseason, the Yankees picking up Granderson, Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson or the BoSox with Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and John Lackey (and Marco Scutaro)?

Curt: Scutaro is a really good baseball player. Not sure that gets enough attention. I still think the Yanks though. Javier is really good, and is going to be really good. Granderson gives them an athlete for once. Yanks are the best team. Nick Johnson is going to get on base a ton when he plays. I don't see how the Yanks can lose honestly.

Tom: I actually think the Red Sox did a better job. They aren't playing to win the division. They are playing to win the Wild Card. They have to beat the likes of Detroit, ChiSox, Tampa etc. Once they get to the playoffs, anything can happen. And they've realized that.

Me: I agree with Curt, I think the Nick Johnson signing went widely unnoticed and was a great pick-up for the Yanks. He'll easily fill the Johnny Damon void, they can go with him or Granderson on top of the line-up with Jeter in front of the big boys against righties.

Tom: They can't win in an arms race with the Yankees, and they're not trying to. I don't see how you fault what the Red Sox did in adding the top free-agent pitcher, top 3B and top SS.

Curt: Javier or Lackey?

Tom: Lackey will have a better season than Javier.

Curt: I’ll take Javier for my team, maybe not in the playoffs though.

Tom: The Red Sox have the strangely unheralded Jon Lester as well who I would take over any pitcher not named Sabathia on the Yankees.

Me: The Sox spent more, a lot more, money than the Yanks did this offseason. They are certainly trying to compete in an arms race. Though I agree, they built their team based on pitching and defense, factors that become even more important in the playoffs.

Curt: Granderson can also field center.

Me: I like Lackey better in the AL. Proven commodity, pitched in big playoff games, etc. Javier is no slouch though, especially as the Yanks #4 guy.

Tom: They spent wisely though. They didn't give a pitcher a 10 year contract. They gave Beltre a one year contract and didn't commit 10 years to him either. The sum of their spending was less than the Teixeira deal for the Yankees.

Me: That's a good debate. We could go on all day there. It is probably setting up for another Sox-Yanks October classic I would imagine.

Me: Let's move on, who are some of your breakout performers this year? Both in terms of real life and fantasy....

Tom: Can I say Billy Butler? .300+, 30+ HR.

Me: I really like Jay Bruce to start realizing his potential.

Tom: Jay Bruce has gobs of power, clearly evident from his line last season. That BABIP was an all-time season low.

Curt: He still walks a ton, that’s big.

Me: Is Butler a breakout candidate this year or was he already last year?

Tom: What constitutes a breakout? If a tree falls in the woods and no one heard it...

Me: I think it's put up or shut up time for Lastings Milledge as well, what do you guys think about him? And yea, Butler will probably gain the national exposure he deserves, I agree.

Curt: Looks like James (Bill James, the godfather of statistical analysis) thinks Butler is going to take a step back.

Curt: Not sure Lastings got it like that. I don't see a high batting average, or OBP or power from him. What’s best case scenario for him?

Tom: Lastings best case scenario is 20-20.

Curt: Xavier Nady that can run?

Tom: No way he gets to Nady-peak.

Me: He's a better fielder though, and if he can do 20-20 I think the Pirates would be thrilled. Nady had a great arm, but was a butcher in the outfield. Milledge needs to walk more to be a better than average player I think.

Curt: I am not big on these mediocre power, low OBP guys. Lastings is young though, can get that OBP up hopefully.

Me: Any non-rookie pitchers you see breaking through? Does Francisco Liriano return to form? He has looked great in the spring and supposedly did in winter ball as well.

Tom: Ricky Nolasco. You guys won't be able to draft him early enough in our fantasy draft on Saturday.

Me: I'm a big Nolasco fan. He was awesome in the 2nd half of the year last year after a short stint in the minors.

Tom: Homer Bailey finished the season exceptionally strong for the Reds. He has learned how to pound the strike-zone and trust that his pitches are good enough (which they are).

Curt: Not big on Nolasco myself. Looks like he won't be on my team.

Tom: I also like a big season from Jorge De La Rosa this year as well. The Rockies top of the rotation is as unheralded but as good as anyone's. Jason Hammel is no slouch in Colorado either.

Me: Any love for Liriano? What about Charlie Morton for the Bucs? He has some great stuff, but has some of that Homer Bailey in him where he's afraid to challenge hitters.

Curt: Morton has some Kip Wells in him if you ask me.

Tom: Morton has to prove once that he's willing to just throw the baseball.

Curt: As for Liriano, I don't think he will ever be the same. Baseballs don't move like his did and it looks like his does not anymore either. I would be surprised.

Curt: I would look for a similar path of improvement for Morton. Take out that ten run effort and he was fairly decent last year.

Me: Breakout players are a great transition into some fantasy talk. Let's quickly go through a little fantasy baseball chatter and I will let you guys get out of here. I have probably kept you long enough already...

Me: Give me your top 10 in a standard 5x5 league.

Tom: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Mark Teixeira.

Me: Mine would go Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, Chase Utley, Braun, Miggy Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Teixeira, Carl Crawford, and David Wright.

Tom: I don't subscribe to the idea of selecting a pitcher in the top rounds. They are simply too volatile.

Curt: Pujols, Hanley, Braun, AROD, Chase, Prince, Mauer, Tex, Longoria, Miggy.

Me: I know I'm not as high on Mauer as you guys. There is no way he replicates his power from last season, plus a more realistic BA is going to be around .330, which is fantastic obviously, but doesn't make him a first rounder for me.

Curt: Need to find this year’s Zack Greinke, guy who is good but breaks out.

Tom: In standard two-catcher leagues, Mauer is simply too much better than everyone else to not have in the first round.

Me: Either of you take Lincecum in the first round?

Curt: Mauer is a career .327 hitter. I would take his career average year no problem. I would not on Lincecum, just out of principle. It is not that it is a terrible strategy, just not what I would do.

Me: I'm not big on pitchers early as well. The key, like Curt said, is to find the Greinke and Vazquez of the draft in later rounds.

Curt: How would you feel about getting Wright around the 20th pick? That is going to look real dumb by like April 15th, him going that late.

Me: I agree, Wright is going to have a big year.

Tom: I'd be okay with Wright that late, but I'm not going to target him. 3B is deep with relatively off-the-radar players like Ryan Zimmerman and Pablo Sandoval.

Me: And in a two catcher league, maybe Mauer is a first round pick. In a one catcher league, I'm not sure Mauer's career average season is even a top 30 pick IMO.

Me: Zimmerman is a good under-the-radar player. I'm not sure Sandoval is, however, everyone loves Kung Fu Panda.

Curt: Third base is pretty loaded no doubt there. It helps a lot to get a bat at a scarce position early on.

Me: I know our big draft is Saturday, but we know how each other think already. Can you guys share some of your sleepers and busts for the year? (Hopefully nobody else in our league reads this until after the draft!)

Tom: Lance Berkman = Bust

Curt: Carroll (baseball expert and injury guru Will Carroll) is not bullish on him I don't believe.

Tom: If people draft J.A. Happ expecting last season they will be upset. Same with Kevin Millwood, Randy Wells and Jair Jurrjens.

Curt: Guys I don't like that I think were lucky last year include Joel Pineiro.

Me: I like Jose Reyes and Josh Hamilton as superstar players that are going too late based on injury.

Me: Depending on Cliff Lee's health, he could be a real bargain. Look what Jarrod freakin' Washburn did in Seattle last year with that park and defense.

Tom: I think we can expect somewhere between Hamilton's two seasons in Texas.

Curt: Jurrjens has done it two years in a row though, right? I think he’s lucky as well, and will go before I would consider drafting him. Same with Dempster, I don't buy it no matter what.

Tom: Ross Ohlendorf will not have an ERA below 4.00 this season.

Me: Pitchers' performance always seems to be much more volatile, any hitters you see besides Berkman being busts? Carlos Quentin killed many teams last year.

Curt: For bats it’s easier to predict who will bounce back than who will bust, BJ Upton for instance.

Me: I'm not high on Jason Bay in that park.

Tom: Nope, I'm not high on any Mets. They need to get that stench washed off from the last two seasons for me to consider it.

Tom: Assuming Derek Jeter doesn't hit .400 against LHP, he'll come back down to earth.

Curt: Beltran has an average draft position (“ADP”) of 127.

Me: No way Johnny Damon performs again like last year.

Curt: I like Granderson in that park coming from Detroit.

Me: Ok, let's wrap it up. Give me your one bold prediction for the year, player or team.

Tom: Yankees miss the playoffs, and the fans tear down that baseball mausoleum!

Curt: Ha. Ben Sheets will be decent, no one will remember that ten spot ($10 million contract with Oakland).

Tom: Locally, how about the Pirates OF goes 60-60.

Curt: People will hopefully realize how all the good young players are in the NL.

Me: I have two; I think Albert Pujols hits 50 HRs for the first time in his career. (Amazing, I know.) Second, the Pirates finish .500. (I'm going to say it every season for now on until they do it, that way I'm on record for saying it!)

Me: Guys, that's it. Thank you so much for joining me. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I have and I hope the readers do as well. Let's do it again periodically though the season....