Rex Ryan is a great defensive mind, he looks like he is well on his way to being a pretty good head coach as well, but his statement at the beginning of the playoffs that running the ball and playing defense is the key to winning in the NFL is flat-out wrong. The NFL is a quarterback’s league, and look no further to this week’s Super Bowl for the latest and greatest example. Running the ball is nice, and playing good defense is still paramount to winning, but if you want to compete year-in and year-out in this era you need to have a “franchise” quarterback. Look at the perennial playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders of this decade; Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Eagles, Chargers and to a lesser extent the Giants and Saints. What do all of these teams have in common? You guessed it, a franchise quarterback. Look at the teams that “ran the ball and played defense” over the past decade and you can see a history of ups and downs and early playoff exits. The Titans and Panthers from last year (and this year) could not have proved this point more; and the Ravens over the decade are the greatest example. From being the best team in the regular season to one game and done in the playoffs to entirely out of the playoffs the next year are common themes when you run the football, play good defense, and have a quarterback that doesn’t win football games. Would it surprise anyone if the Jets stumble to a 6-10 record next season after a great playoff run, I don’t think so. It also would not surprise anyone if they use this postseason run as a springboard to 12 wins, but if and only if the growth of Mark Sanchez continues and he inches closer to “franchise” quarterback status, or as they like to call him in New York, “ the Sanchize”.
So why is this the case? Quite simply, the margin for error without a great quarterback is pretty much non-existent in today’s game. Talent across the league has never been better, or more equal. The Steelers won the Super Bowl last season with one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They were able to win the Lombardi Trophy because the difference between the top line and the worst line is not all that great. This is true at most positions in the NFL except for some of your truly elite players that do make a meaningful difference, and most teams have one or two of those guys at one position or another. With the rules set up the way they are emphasizing finesse, passing and big plays, combined with the overall talent parity across the league, the difference in today’s game comes down to the quarterback position. It is true that you can win by playing defense and running the football, but you better avoid fumbles, penalties, and general bad luck that every team experiences over the course of a season. You also better hope that your quarterback plays the best football of his life in the playoffs; otherwise your stay will not last too long. If you wake up tomorrow and find yourself as a NFL general manager, and you want to win year-in and year-out, compete for Super Bowls and Lombardi Trophies, there’s no more important task than finding your franchise quarterback!
While we are on the subject, and because it’s a fun debate the next time you are having beers with your buddies, let’s go ahead and rank the NFL quarterbacks based on their “franchise” status. Quite simply, we are looking at quarterback production over the next 5 seasons, too much can change if we start going out longer-term than this. We will also try to break the QBs into groups where appropriate:
Group 1, The Hall of Famers
1. Peyton Manning – Watching Warner and Favre produce at a high level makes you think Manning can do this well beyond five years. Enjoy Sunday’s Super Bowl as we may be watching the greatest QB ever when it is all said and done.
2. Tom Brady – Let’s give him a pass for this year as he spent his off-season recovering from major knee surgery. I expect him to come back strong next year and for the next few years.
Group 2, On Their Way
3. Ben Roethlisberger – You could argue to flip 3 and 4 on this list, but if the game is on the line with two minutes to go, I want the ball in Big Ben’s hands over Brees’. That gives him the nod for me.
4. Drew Brees – Legitimized his spot here with a trip to the Super Bowl. Could cement his HOF status with a Super Bowl win.
5. Philip Rivers – Rivers has the bad luck of playing in the same conference as the top 3 guys on this list but still only in his mid-20’s and with his late game ability, it would shock me if Rivers is not a Super Bowl champion someday.
Group 3, Something to Prove
6. Donovan McNabb – All that’s left for McNabb to prove is the ability to win a Super Bowl. I think he could accomplish this much easier if he went back to using his legs more like he did in his early days.
7. Aaron Rodgers – I was shocked I had him this high, but Rodgers has undeniable talent and what looks like the perfect demeanor and leadership skills to go along with it. Great poise in the pocket and tremendous skill at avoiding pressure and throwing on the run. I expect big things. He does has a lot to prove in the post-season, however.
8. Carson Palmer – On talent alone, Palmer should be in the top 3. But he has never won a post-season game, feuds with some of his egomaniac teammates and does not seem to have control over his team the way the guys above him on this list do. This may not be his fault, but until he proves otherwise, he may continually drop down this list. He was terrible in the playoff loss to the Jets, and really quite bad the entire second half of the season.
9. Eli Manning – With a Super Bowl under his belt, something to prove may not be the right phrase to describe Eli’s play to this point, but until the younger Manning becomes more consistent game to game I cannot put him any higher on this list. The way he and the Giants played down the stretch this year is inexcusable for a guy that wants to be truly special.
10. Tony Romo – He is slowly but surely coming along. He now seems to have the respect of his teammates, doesn’t allow mistakes to bother him as much, and has ended a decade plus of Cowboys playoff failures. Romo needs to take the next step to the Super Bowl to be considered a truly elite QB.
Group 4, Young Guns
11. Matt Ryan – You could flip Ryan and Flacco and argue it until the end of time, but both of these guys have shown the potential to become franchise guys. Both have also shown the potential to be nothing more than ordinary as well. I would still take Ryan at this point, but I will probably change my mind about ten times over the course of their careers.
12. Joe Flacco – Early in his second campaign it looked like Flacco was ready to make the jump to the next level. He regressed tremendously over the course of the season, however, and especially as more of the offense was placed on his shoulders. Couple this with his team going back to a predominantly run-based attack and winning a road playoff game despite him, not because of him, and that’s why I currently have Ryan ranked ahead of him.
13. Matt Schaub – Schaub has accomplished more than the two guys above him statistically, but has yet to lead his team to the playoffs and still shows the penchant for costly mistakes at the wrong time. He is also a few years older than the two guys above him, leaving him less room to grow. He is still young, however, and should improve while working with one of the most dynamic WRs in the game.
14. Vince Young – All he does is win football games. Well that and lose his starting job to a near 40-year-old who then led his team to the best record in football. VY could move up this list faster than anyone mentioned, but he could also fall backwards just as quickly. Next year will be a critical year for his development.
15. Mark Sanchez – Sanchez was probably the hardest guy to rank on this list. It would be easy to ignore the mostly bad regular season he had and focus only on his great post-season play, but that’s ignoring the facts. I am very interested to see how Sanchez develops over the next couple of years.
16. Jay Cutler – I wouldn’t touch this guy with a ten foot pole to be my quarterback, but I can see what some people like in him. He has a rocket for an arm and an unflappable confidence in his ability. Maybe he should quit throwing interceptions and make the playoffs first before being so cocky.
17. Matthew Stafford – If you have not seen the game winning play against the Cleveland Browns where Stafford plays with his right arm basically hanging there, check it out on you tube. That play alone tells me this kid has a chance.
18. David Garard – Not sure Garard belongs in the young-gun department as he has been in the league for some time now, but he is better than anyone that will appear below him on this list. I like Garard, think he is a solid quarterback, but he is not the “franchise” QB we are looking for.
Group 5, Have Talent, Need Results
19. Jason Campbell – I have always been intrigued with Campbell’s ability going back to his days at Auburn. A side of me thinks he has been ruined though by the lack of stability he has had around him both in the NFL and in college. He played well down the stretch this season, hopefully he can build upon that.
20. Matt Cassel – I still do not know what Cassel can be or will be, but I like the kid’s accuracy and his poise. Let’s see how he does being united with Charlie Weis before making a definitive decision.
Group 6, The Old Guys
21. Brett Favre/Tavaris Jackson – If Brett were definitely playing next year I think I would have the Vikings’ situation about ten spots higher because a great chance to win one title probably trumps that of most guys on this list. Brett’s uncertainty, as well as Jackson’s history, would not leave me feeling too great if I were a Vikings fan.
22. Matt Hasselbeck – I like Hasselbeck, like him a lot actually, but his inability to stay healthy and lack of long-term security does not leave me too confident. The lack of a solid back-up or even a future Seahawks’ signal caller lands Pete Carroll’s new gig in the bottom half of the league.
Group 7, So You’re Saying There’s a Chance
23. Chad Henne – Henne showed some talent, especially the arm, as a starter this year. He still has a long way to go before I can consider him for franchise status, however.
24. Brady Quinn – Quinn, as well as Henne, could probably fall at the bottom of the Young Guns group but neither has done quite enough on the NFL level to give me enough hope. This is probably a do-or- die year for Quinn in Cleveland and he really needs to develop the ability to get the ball downfield with more efficiency.
25. Matt Leinart – It was probably a big disappointment for Cardinal fans to hear Kurt Warner announce his retirement. Lienart still has time to prove he is capable as a NFL QB, but he has done nothing to this point to say that will happen.
26. Josh Freeman – Another guy I guess you could throw on the bottom of the Young Guns group but I just didn’t see enough from him over his nine starts. Yes he had his moments, but his accuracy and his decision making were very poor at times, and those are two traits that are musts to be a franchise quarterback in this league.
27. Alex Smith – Smith did show improvement, finally, when given the starter’s job this season. I think San Francisco is still very disappointed they settled on Smith over Rodgers five years ago.
28. JaMarcus Russell – I do not want to write-off a guy with Russell’s immense physical ability because who knows, one day he might just “get it”. But those chances are about one in a million it looks like.
Group 8, I Don’t Think So
29. Kyle Orton – Orton is probably unfairly ranked this low because the guy does not stink. He simply does not have the ability to be a franchise quarterback. You would be quite happy with him as your back-up, and right now he is probably better than at least 10 guys above him on this list. We know exactly what he is, however, and that is not a franchise type guy.
30. Jake Delhomme – Put the nail in his coffin. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, the team still owes him a ton of money and it would not surprise me if he is the starter again next year. Matt Moore would not excite me very much either if I were John Fox.
31. Marc Bulger/Keith Null/Rams QB – The last two teams were easy because both will probably have a new starting quarterback next year whether that is Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford or Michael Vick. I ranked the Rams ahead of the Bills because I think they are the more likely destination for Vick, who probably has at least 2-3 years of good play left in his well rested body.
32. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Trent Edwards/Bills QB – Time to start searching for a new guy, whether that is Clausen, Bradford or another rookie from this year’s draft.
