Pens in Position to Defend Cup

The Penguins defeated the Islanders 3-1 on Wednesday night, moving within one point of the division leading New Jersey Devils. It looked like an awfully familiar game for the Penguins who played well for 60 minutes, got a great game from Marc Andre-Fleury, saw Evgeni Malkin extend his point streak to 11 games and got secondary scoring in the form of two goals from Chris Kunitz. It should look familiar because it was similar to many of the playoff games from last year and just bolstered my opinion that the Pens are going to be the favorite in the Eastern Conference once the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin.

You may have noticed a general lack of Penguins talk so far on the blog and with good reason. To me, the first 40-50 games of the NHL regular season are almost meaningless. They are like the NFL preseason in many respects. You want to see your stars play well, work on your special teams, get an idea of where your strengths and weaknesses are and win as many games as possible to put yourself in position for the stretch run. I know that every Penguins game is life and death for many Penguins fans. It is actually kind of annoying to me, especially when you want to head to a local establishment on a Thursday night or Saturday during college football season to catch some of the gridiron action and you cannot get a game on TV because Pens fans are treating the 10th game of the regular season like it’s the Stanley Cup. If you listen to the talk radio stations, between the lack of goal scoring wingers and problems with the power play, this team has no shot to win the Cup again. How easy people forget that just last year around this time the Pens were in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, going through a coaching change and looked all but worn out from their run to the Finals the year before. We all know how that ended and it should be slammed into the minds of Penguins fans throughout Pittsburgh. The regular season, and especially the games played before the trade deadline are almost meaningless. The Penguins won the Cup from the 4th seed last year and are positioned to be no worse than that this year. Let’s stop complaining about the small deficiencies this team has and focus on why I think they are once again the favorites in the Eastern Conference.

The Penguins are much the same team as last year when they won the Stanley Cup. They are great down the middle with Sidney Crosby, Malkin, Jordan Staal and Fleury in net. They are once again excellent on the penalty kill, something that cannot be understated in the postseason, led by possibly the best penalty killer in the game in Staal. They have essentially the same line combinations as they did during their run to the Cup last year, including what I suspect will have Talbot on the Malkin line again come playoff time. (For the record, my guess for the postseason lines will once again be Crosby-Guerin-Kunitz, Malkin-Talbot-Fedotenko, Staal-Kennedy-Cooke and Adams-Dupuis-Rupp with Crosby and Malkin often double shifting on that fourth line. This also assumes Shero does not pick up another winger. If he is able to, I suspect Dupuis will be the odd man out most nights if the team is healthy.) The one big difference is the loss of the Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill defensive pairing that played so well in the playoffs last year. They are replaced this year by young and less experienced defensemen Alex Goligoski and Kris Letang, two players who are better known for their offensive repertoire than their defensive prowess. The lack of a defensive defenseman and the struggles of Goligoski have the talk-show callers up in arms. I agree, a mobile defensive defenseman would be a great help to this team but in the age of the salary cap, sacrifices are going to have to be made.

This is where General Manager Ray Shero comes into play. In the past two years Shero has proven he can identify the strengths and weaknesses of his team properly and make the necessary moves to address them at the trade deadline (this year it is March 3rd). Two years ago it was the acquisition of Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis and Hal Gill, last year it was the additions of Kunitz, Guerin and Craig Adams. This year I suspect Shero will be in the market for that defenseman the Penguins are looking for as well as a potential goal scoring winger, one that preferably is a rental on the last year of a contract. Ray Whitney of the Carolina Hurricanes has been rumored as the latter; many names have been tossed about as the former. The Penguins are very tight against the cap, however, and likewise do not want to part with any of their young assets. I expect Shero to come through with a couple of subtle moves addressing the team’s holes, but even if he is unable to pull the trigger, that does not change my mind on the direction of this team.

That direction is pointed right at another Stanley Cup. With two of the games three greatest superstars, as well as a proven big game goalie, there’s no team in the NHL that is more ready to face the grind of the Stanley Cup playoffs than the Penguins are. After winning the Cup, many teams sort of coast through the regular season, saving themselves for the playoffs and knowing exactly how to turn it on once the real games begin. I suspect that is exactly what the Penguins are doing and I expect them to kick it into high gear after the Olympic break for the stretch run leading up and into the playoffs. People want to focus on the small holes the Penguins have, but those holes are much less pivotal than the holes their biggest competition in the East, the Devils and the Washington Capitals, have. The Capitals, despite all the offensive firepower, lack a big-time goalie or a strong defensive core to support whoever they end up going with for the playoffs. Case in point, the Capitals have given up 16 goals in their last three games. Further, other than Ovechkin, the rest of the Capitals “stars” have far from proven themselves on the biggest stage. If you do not have a big-time goalie, I do not like your chances against Sid and Geno. As for the Devils, they do have the big time goalie, but their lack of firepower, even with the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, does not even come close to matching that of the Penguins. They are currently seventh in goals out of the eight teams that would currently make the playoffs in the East. It is true that they have owned the Penguins thus far in the regular season, but once again I do not put much stock into those games. The Pens have the firepower to put up enough goals against Brodeur that the Devils will not be able to match.

The biggest obstacle to the Penguins reaching the Finals again would be health. An injury to one of the stars is always a possibility in the grueling Stanley Cup playoffs, even more so in a year where six Penguins will participate in an extra 6-8 highly intense Olympic Games. In the end, however, I suspect more of the same from the Penguins in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I expect Fleury to once again raise his level of play in the playoffs. I expect Jordan Staal to continue being the great two way player he is. I expect Malkin to continue being the dynamic offensive force he was in last year’s Finals. Finally, I expect Crosby to carry his team once again, proving why he is the best player in the world right now, to another Stanley Cup Final.