Week 3 NFL Picks

You may have noticed a considerable lack of writing this week, especially in light of my promise to talk some baseball and college football this week. I did have a valid excuse though as my wife gave birth to our first child on Wednesday, a baby girl…so cut me some slack! Mom and baby are doing great and I promise to catch up on the college football scene and end of the baseball regular season next week.

I can’t, however, postpone my week three NFL picks after another decent performance in week two. Going 9-6-1 against the spread last week brings my overall record on the year to 17-12-3, a very solid 59% winning percentage. In between the many visitors and very few hours of sleep we got over the past few days, it was actually quite easy to stay updated on the world of sports thanks to the hospital’s fantastic guest internet service and a steady diet of ESPN on the tube. I must say that I have no excuses for this week’s picks, unless of course I bomb! Let’s get to it.

(home teams in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee – The Giants ran into a tough match-up in Indianapolis last week. I expect Eli and company to bounce back and earn a hard fought win at home.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Josh Freeman has played well in the first two weeks but he has not seen anything resembling this Pittsburgh defense.

BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Cleveland – Baltimore’s offense has really struggled so far. This has the feel of one of those games where everything finally clicks and the Ravens post a big number on the scoreboard. Seneca Wallace will not be posting a big number against the Ravens defense.

Atlanta (+4) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans has not been overly impressive in the first two weeks and Atlanta is very familiar with their attack. I expect this to be one of the better games of the weekend, and expect it to ultimately be decided by a field goal.

San Francisco (-2.5) over KANSAS CITY – The 49ers looked like the team we expected them to be Monday night against the Saints. Now they need to stop shooting themselves in the foot.

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo – It’s usually not a very good sign when you’re turning to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for a spark. Tom Brady will rebound in a big way from last week’s subpar performance.

Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA – The defense that showed up last week in Cincinnati is the one we should expect going forward. That’s not a good thing for Jimmy Clausen who is making his first career start.

MINNESOTA (-11) over Detroit – See Baltimore game above (just substitute Shaun Hill for Seneca Wallace).

Dallas (+3) over HOUSTON – I’m not backing off the Cowboys now as they were my preseason Super Bowl pick. If they lose again this week, it will become time to reevaluate.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over DENVER – I have said a few times now that Denver is a significantly better team at home but having a banged up secondary is no way to face off with Peyton Manning.

Washington (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS – Redskins fans are going to be complaining that their team should be 3-0 after this week. Would of, could of, should of…

San Diego (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Much like Denver, I hate going against Seattle at home. Still, I can’t get over the fact that this team does not look very talented to me.

Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE – The Michael Vick revival continues.

Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA – I simply cannot give more than a field goal with Derek Anderson at QB. I also like the way that Oakland played last week in the second half. This should be a tight one, if not a particularly well played one.

MIAMI (-2) over New York Jets – I don’t expect Miami to sit back and allow Mark Sanchez time to throw the way the Patriots did last week. This should be a good, low-scoring contest and the absence of Revis Island could very well be the difference.

Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO – Simply not going against the Packers until they prove me wrong. Cutler is due for a few interceptions anyhow.