No need to beat it around the bush with some boring introductory paragraph that is usually mandatory when writing these pick columns. You have seen my season outlook and my preseason power rankings, let’s just dive right into my NFL Week 1 Picks (I guess I already made you read an introductory paragraph at this point!).
(home teams in caps)
NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Minnesota – Fired up home crowd + banged up Brett Favre – Sidney Rice = New Orleans win and cover.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Carolina – I think the Giants are in for a bounce back season. If they’re going to do that, they will need to get off to a fast start at home. That and Matt Moore on the road scares the heck out of me.
Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA – Rodgers over Kolb, thank you very much.
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Atlanta – Give me the home dog with the better defense…or just call me a homer.
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO – Miami quite possibly has the best offensive line in the NFL. Buffalo doesn’t have the best anything. Their only advantage over Miami is cold weather. Unfortunately for Buffalo, weather won’t be a factor in September.
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO - The Lions should be able to score enough points and get enough pressure on Cutler to make this game close in the fourth quarter. Even if Detroit is down big early, a backdoor cover could easily come into play.
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati – Give me the Patriots at home with a little something to prove this year.
Indianapolis (-2) over HOUSTON – The hardest line of the week to figure out. Are you really going to go against Manning giving less than a field goal? I didn’t think so.
TENNESSEE (-6) over Oakland – For those of you in suicide polls, here is my top pick for week 1 to win. Raiders are improved but to expect them to go on the road, across the country, against one of the league's best o-lines is asking a ton. VY is only 26-13 as a starter, the Titans are only a year removed from 13-3 and only finished last year on an 8-2 run.
Denver (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – Tough game to pick here as Denver was terrible on the road last year. Maurice Jones-Drew’s health could be the deciding factor. Since we don’t know for sure how MJD knee is feeling, give me Denver.
Cleveland (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Cleveland looks like a franchise that is going in the right direction while Tampa seems stuck in neutral. Give me the veteran QB in week 1, even if his name happens to be Jake Delhomme.
San Francisco (-3) over SEATTLE – Pete Carroll has overhauled the Seahawks’ roster. That could or couldn’t be a good thing. Either way, the 49ers are still the more talented team.
ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona – I will call his the pro-Sam Bradford pick, though I could just as easily call it the anti-Derek Anderson pick.
Dallas (-3.5) over Washington – Washington will be a dangerous team as the season moves along but I think it will take a few weeks before Shanahan and McNabb really settle in. Dallas showed absolutely nothing during the preseason, I expect them to come out like gangbusters.
Baltimore (+3) over NEW YORK JETS – We’ll call this the bandwagon game as no two teams have more casual fans jumping on board than the Jets and Ravens. I simply don’t trust the Sanchize at this point. Call me wacco for Flacco, for one week anyways.
San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY – San Diego is perennially a slow starter and start on the road against a division rival. Pick the Chiefs, right? Nah, I can’t get the thought of Rivers vs. Cassel out of my mind.
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Finally someone who agrees with me that the Lions will beat "Da" Bears on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteNice read!
Read this a day to late, but I was very similar in picks to you, not a bad week. . . The seattle throttle was very suprising to me though. I had houston and loved them this week. Although they still won't win the division, this was there superbowl to beat the colts in week 1. Nice giants pick, Eli has slowly turned into a very good manning, very underated quarterback.
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