NFL Wild Card weekend is over but there is just one little, itty-bitty, tiny football game to be played tonight, the BCS National Championship game. Don’t worry, I’ll have plenty of thoughts on the NFL weekend in tomorrow’s Playoff Smorgasbord but today, let’s focus on the college gridiron where what has to be the most highly anticipated National Championship game since Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and USC took on Vince Young and Texas back in the 2006 Rose Bowl is set to occur.
Tonight’s game features Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who has had the best individual season I have witnessed in my lifetime, and the undefeated Auburn Tigers squaring off against LaMichael James, the 3rd place finisher in the Heisman voting, Darron Thomas and the high-powered, high-octane Oregon Ducks who just so happen to be undefeated as well. If it hadn’t been 37 days or whatever it has been since the last time these teams took the field, I might just have goosebumps in anticipation of watching this game. If you leave your seat to get a beer from the fridge, you might just miss a TD…and that is no knock on these defenses that have both been fantastic as well.
So who wins? Let’s break it down…
Oregon Offense vs. Auburn Defense: Even though Oregon plays on the West Coast, I am sure most people have seen the Ducks play at least a couple of times this year and are familiar with the pace that the Ducks like to run their offense. Coach Chip Kelly wants to have the next play snapped within 15 seconds of the previous play ending. This puts an enormous amount of pressure on the defense to get their call in, get lined up and to stop what is already an enormously talented offense. The Ducks have playmakers everywhere with James and Kenyon Barner in the backfield, Darron Thomas, the dual-threat QB, and a host of WRs that all seem faster than the next. Auburn’s defense features stud defensive tackle Nick Fairley, a potential top 10 draft pick, and a bunch of guys you probably haven’t heard much about. The Auburn D has played well at times this year, most notably in the SEC Championship game, but make no mistake that it has been Cam Newton and the Tigers offense that has carried this team. The month off has given the Tigers time to prepare for Oregon’s spread attack but I doubt that they were able to simulate the speed, not only the pace at which they play but the speed of the playmakers, that Oregon operates with. Advantage: Ducks.
Auburn Offense vs. Oregon Defense: Cam Newton, Cam Newton, Cam Newton….is there really much else to say here? Newton has been unbelievable this year, rushing for over 1,400 yards and throwing for nearly 2,600 more. Newton has been fantastic in every phase of the game but the part that has gone somewhat unnoticed is how efficient he has been throwing the football. The Tigers lead the nation in both passing efficiency and yards per attempt, two statistics that truly show just how great Newton has been. The talent surrounding Newton is not equal to that of his counterpart in Thomas, but the Tigers have more than enough playmakers to support Newton and take advantage if the Ducks pay too much attention to Newton. Oregon’s defense has been great this year despite flying somewhat under the radar due to the team’s eye-popping offensive numbers. The Ducks are 25th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense despite the added number of possessions they see from the offense’s style of play. That being said, Oregon has not seen a player that will threaten them the way that Cam Newton will tonight. Look for Auburn to try and take advantage of Oregon’s undersized defense by pounding Newton and running back Michael Dyer up the gut. If Auburn can wear down the Ducks defense and keep their own defense fresh on the sidelines, it could go a long way towards how this one is decided. Advantage: Tigers.
Special Teams: This part of the game probably favors the Ducks who sport the nation’s #1 punt return unit and are 20th in the country in net punting. That point could become moot, however, if neither team has to punt the football. On kickoffs, which there could be a ton of tonight, both teams feature excellent coverage units and only Auburn has busted one for a TD this year. Neither team’s kicker has been tested much this year but both appear capable of getting the job done. I am sure both teams are hopeful that this one doesn’t come down to a last second kick, however. In a game that could easily swing one way or another on special teams play, I really don’t expect the game to come down to that. Advantage: Ducks, ever so slightly.
Prediction: Expect some fireworks tonight as both defenses get acclimated to the speed and scheme of the opposing offenses. I expect an absolute show from Cam Newton and from the Ducks high-octane offense but in the end I think it is the Oregon defense that is the difference. The SEC has never lost a BCS Title Game, and Cam Newton has never lost a collegiate start, but I think for the first time it will be the opposing team with the speed advantage on the defensive side of the ball. I have gone against Cam Newton numerous times this year only to regret it the next day but I like Chip Kelly’s team just a bit more tonight. Oregon wins 41-34.
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I don't see how Auburn is athletic enough in the back seven to get the stops. Ive been picking against them all year as well. Must be consistent.
ReplyDeleteThe SEC has not been as good this year as we have seen in the bowls to date, like on Saturday especially.