NFL Divisional Breakdown

We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season, well for most teams anyway, and the division races are looking a little clearer in terms of contenders and pretenders. The two hardest divisions to assess at this time are the jumbled NFC East and NFC West. A big surprise to me is the fact that no team in the NFC East is above .500 at this point. I thought this was one of the strongest divisions in the NFL heading into the season. In what is not a surprise, the NFC West also has no team above .500 and the preseason favorite is yet to win a game. Let’s breakdown the NFL division by division at the quarter mark, and give odds on each team’s ability to win the division or earn a wild card. I will be back a little later today with an abbreviated picks post (they're up, click here). I’m feeling good after sweeping the prime time games like I said I would!

AFC East

New York Jets (3-1) – If there was one team happy to see Randy Moss leave New England it had to be the Jets who saw their division title hopes increase greatly. (Though I think they would have preferred it wait a week since they see the Vikings on Monday Night this week.) The Jets are loaded, no doubt about that, and are expecting the return of Darrelle Revis (injury) and Santonio Holmes (suspension) this week. The question is whether we see the Sanchez of the last three weeks when the Jets look like they can beat anyone, or the Sanchez from week one when they couldn’t score on the little sisters of the poor. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.

New England Patriots (3-1) – First thing that came to mind upon learning the Randy Moss news is ‘I wonder what Tom Brady is thinking.’ No doubt that the Patriots are loaded for the future with young talent and draft picks galore, but trading Moss cannot have made an ultra-competitive guy like Tom Brady happy. The Patriots went from legitimate Super Bowl contender to playoff hopeful. I know Belichick is a genius and all, but you can’t win football games every week with two special teams TDs and one INT TD. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 55%.

Miami Dolphins (2-2) – Two straight home divisional losses can certainly put a dent in your division and playoff hopes. The Dolphins have major questions in the secondary and will need Chad Henne to play much better than he did against the Pats to get back into the thick of things. Division odds: 5%. Playoffs: 20%.

Buffalo Bills (0-4) – Bills are hands down the worst team in the NFL and are currently being outscored 125-61 on the season. The good news is that I was happy to see Marshawn Lynch traded as I have Fred Jackson on two of my fantasy teams! Then again, maybe it’s not so good news to have any Bills on your fantasy teams. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) – The Ravens squeaked out a big game in Pittsburgh last week in which a loss would have put them in a major hole to the Steelers. The Ravens are a good, disciplined football team that should only get better with the return of Ed Reed on defense and a deep play threat on offense in Donte Stallworth. Does the comeback win over the Steelers propel Flacco to the elite level? I still have my doubts, but the Ravens look like a playoff team. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 65%.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) – The Steelers not only survived their franchise quarterback’s four game suspension, they put themselves in great position for another Super Bowl run. The defense looks like the league’s best unit and the offense will become two-dimensional with Roethlisberger’s return. If the Steelers can stay healthy, they are the team to beat in the AFC. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) – You know the old saying that a team is better than its individual parts, well the Bungals are the opposite of that. With good individual talent spread up and down the roster, Cincinnati has not been able to put it all together. A lot of that has to do with the play of Carson Palmer, who has dropped off a long way from just a few short years ago. I won’t rule out a playoff berth for these guys in case they can put it all together, but with their schedule it better happen in a hurry. Division odds: 5%. Playoffs: 20%.

Cleveland Browns (1-3) – Eric Mangini has the Browns playing hard and they will not be an easy victory for anyone. I think new GM Mike Holmgren will eventually get them on the right path personnel wise, but priority number one has to be a quarterback. It is impossible to win consistently in this league without a QB. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.

AFC South

Houston Texans (3-1) – This really could be the coming of age year for this Texans squad. After a week one victory over their once unbeatable rival, Houston rallied from 17 down to win on the road in Washington and in week four went to Oakland without their best player in Andre Johnson and left tackle Duane Brown and still found a way to win. Houston now gets back reining Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing and will eventually get back Johnson and Brown. It should be an interesting battle between the non divisional winners of the Colts/Texans, Ravens/Steelers and Jets/Patriots for those final two wildcard spots. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 70%.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) – Bob Sanders is hurt once again and the Colts ability to stop the run has pretty much dissolved. It is extremely important for Peyton Manning to get his team ahead and let this defense go after the quarterback and use their speed to do what they do best. The Colts will be fine, though, and Peyton is probably once again the frontrunner for MVP. Division odds: 50%. Playoffs: 75%.

Tennessee Titans (2-2) – Tennessee has been a little Jekyll and Hyde this year with impressive victories over the Raiders and Giants and disappointing losses to the Steelers and Broncos. Teams will continue to load up on the run against Chris Johnson (averaging only 3.8 yards per carry) and forcing Vince Young to beat them with his arm. Young continues to improve, and Jeff Fisher always has his team competing at a high level, but I think we continue to see inconsistency with this football team as Young continues to develop. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 30%.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) – As impressive as the Jaguars victory over the Colts last week was this is still not a good football team. Jacksonville was outscored 66-16 in their two losses thus far, one of those at home, and has given up 111 points on the season, second only to Buffalo in the AFC. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 5%.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) – The surprise team at the quarter mark of the season and the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are well coached under coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel and have some playmakers on both sides of the ball. Matt Cassel and his girly-arm are not the answer at quarterback, however. The Chiefs will get a reality check this week as they travel to Indianapolis, but don’t be surprised if they hang around the playoff picture longer than most would expect. Division odds: 15%. Playoffs: 15%.

San Diego Chargers (2-2) – The Chargers have the NFL’s number one offense and number two defense and are a few special team gaffes on the road away from being undefeated. Philip Rivers is one of the truly elite players in this league and I fully expect the Chargers to win the West once again and become a strong Super Bowl contender. Division odds: 65%. Playoffs: 65%.

Denver Broncos (2-2) – You may have noticed in my picks column the past couple of weeks how I have touted the Broncos as a strong home and terrible road team. Well the Broncos, after losing at home to the Colts (understandable), went on the road and defeated a pretty decent Titans team on the arm of the NFL’s leading passer, Kyle Orton. I doubt that Orton can continue playing THIS WELL, but he has done enough to make me believe that the Broncos will not go away easily this year. Division odds: 19%. Playoffs: 19%.

Oakland Raiders (1-3) – Oakland probably should be 2-2 and outside of the opener in Tennessee the Raiders have played relatively well behind quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. I expect the Raiders to continue to compete hard but the overall lack of talent makes the playoffs a very long shot this year. Division odds: 1%. Playoffs: 1%.

NFC East

Washington Redskins (2-2) – The NFC East is truly the one division, the one division that matters anyway, up for grabs. Any of the four teams could realistically win this thing and the one thing that Washington has going for it is McNabb and Shanahan have certainly done it before. Still, this has the feel of an 8-8 or 9-7 team, maybe that’s enough, but I doubt it. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 30%.

New York Giants (2-2) – The Giants are the NFC version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, but in a little different sense that their ups and downs have come within each game. The key for the Giants will be the play of their offensive and defensive lines. The offensive line needs solid play to allow the Giants’ talented skill guys do their thing and the defensive line needs dominating performances like the one against the Bears to protect the weaknesses behind them. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 40%.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) – There has been no team more interesting than the Eagles over the first four weeks, that’s for sure. Now back at square one with a 2-2 record and Kevin Kolb behind center, I think it’s safe to say that we still really don’t know anything about this team. Trying to put a number on their playoff chances is virtually impossible, especially since we have no idea when Vick will return. Division odds: 20%. Playoffs: 30%.

Dallas Cowboys (1-2) – The Cowboys are lucky in the sense that no team has established themselves in the division allowing the Cowboys off the hook for their sloppy start. Now after a solid road win at Houston and a bye week to regroup, I still think Dallas is the class of the NFC East. If they’re not, I’m guessing it is the end of Wade Phillips in Dallas. Division odds: 40%. Playoffs: 60%.

NFC North

Chicago Bears (3-1) – While I am still not a believer in this Bears team, it is hard to knock their quality wins at Dallas and over Green Bay. I think the Bears 3-0 start was a bit of mirage, however, as Cutler got lucky with some balls that should have been picked off and the offensive line hadn’t been fully exposed yet. I think the Giants game is more of a reflection of what we will see going forward. The Bears have given themselves a chance with their strong start but must get Cutler back in the very near term. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 25%.

Green Bay Packers (3-1) – The Packers are probably the favorite in the NFC right now but that is probably more of a byproduct of the rest of the league than the Packers play. Green Bay has been sloppy, poorly coached, and undisciplined through four weeks but has overcome those mistakes with their talent. Mike McCarthy needs to speed up their play on offense and give Aaron Rodgers as many opportunities as possible. Division odds: 60%. Playoffs: 90%.

Minnesota Vikings (1-2) – Talk about making a splash during your bye week! The trade for Randy Moss gives Brett Favre and the Minnesota offense the deep threat they were looking for and should open things up underneath for Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe and the running game. The defense is very stout once again, and I would be surprised if Minnesota doesn’t have something to say about the NFC Super Bowl representative before it’s all said and done. Division odds: 30%. Playoffs: 60%.

Detroit Lions (0-4) – The Lions are the best winless team in the league and I kind of feel sorry for them right now. They obviously should have won the Bears game on the Calvin Johnson catch ruling, and I’m guessing they would have won another game by now with a healthy Matthew Stafford. The defense, though still bad, is improving and the offense looks promising with young playmakers such as Johnson and Jahvid Best. There is hope for the future in Detroit! 0%. Playoffs: 0%.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) – The NFC South will be a two horse race between Atlanta and New Orleans (sorry Bucs’ fans, I have to discount your nice start) and the leg up has to go to Atlanta after winning in New Orleans. The Falcons are a good, well-rounded team that can run the football, play good defense and has an explosive playmaker in Roddy White on the outside. How good the Falcons can be is probably going to be determined on how good Matt Ryan can become. Division odds: 55%. Playoffs: 80%.

New Orleans Saints (3-1) – It hasn’t been what people have come to expect from the Saints and their high-powered offense but Sean Payton has his club right where it needs to be in its attempt to defend its Super Bowl. Regression was expected as the Saints defense could not possibly force turnovers the way they did next year, but with Drew Brees and the Saints playmakers this remains a very dangerous football team. Division odds: 45%. Playoffs: 80%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) – On the positive, the Bucs got off to a nice 2-0 start and saw some good things from their young franchise QB, Josh Freeman. On the other hand, those two wins were over Cleveland and Carolina and the Bucs looked severely overmatched against the Steelers. Steps are being taken in the right direction, but this team is still ways away from true contention. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 5%.

Carolina Panthers (0-4) – Carolina’s offense has been downright offensive. The Panthers are averaging less than 12 points per game, the lowest n the NFL, and have twice as many turnovers as touchdowns. Something tells me John Fox will be looking for a job next season. Division odds: 0%. Playoffs: 0%.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) – Seriously, this has to be the worst division since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The Arizona Cardinals are technically the division leader at this point despite announcing that an undrafted, rookie free agent is now their starter. If you were thinking well maybe their defense is winning games, think again. The Cardinals have given up 118 points, second only to Buffalo. All of that lousiness and I still give them a one in four shot of making the playoffs. Sheesh! Division odds: 25%. Playoffs: 25%.

St. Louis Rams (2-2) – I am pulling for the Rams to make the playoffs. I have always loved the way Steven Jackson plays the game and Sam Bradford has the look of the League’s next great QB. Still, it’s hard to believe a team can go from winning six games over the last three years to winning the division. Ladies and gentlemen, your NFC West! Division odds: 30%. Playoffs: 30%.

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) – The Seahawks are probably the legitimate favorite at this point with a win over the 49ers, the most experienced QB in Matt Hasselbeck, and a great homefield advantage. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Pete Carroll but he could very well find himself hosting a playoff game. I can promise you one thing; a NFC wildcard will not come from this division. Division odds: 35%. Playoffs: 35%.

San Francisco 49ers (0-4) – I was tempted to make the 49ers the favorite despite their 0-4 record which is certainly saying something. While the 49ers do own the division’s most talented roster, there are bigger issues going on with this football team and the 0-4 record is an almost impossible hole to dig yourself out of. Division odds: 10%. Playoffs: 10%.