Week 5 NFL Picks

If you want to read my division by division breakdown of the NFL at the quarter mark, click here. Now let’s move on to the picks for Week 5. It was a dog day afternoon last Sunday as underdogs were 9-3 against the spread (including six straight up wins) heading into Sunday Night Football. The Giants and Patriots quickly fixed that, easily winning and covering in the prime time spots. Last week I told you that I thought I was having a great week, only to end up 8-8. This week was a little bit of the opposite as I thought I was having a lousy week only to look up and find myself 6-6 heading into the night games. I promptly swept the Giants-Bears, Patriots-Dolphins games, which I probably don’t need to remind you that I promised more work on, to finish the week 8-6 bringing my overall record to 33-26-3. Time for the picks:

(Home teams in caps.)

BUFFALO (+1) over Jacksonville – Jacksonville is overrated coming off of its win against Indianapolis and the Bills have to win a couple of games this year right? Right?

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Kansas City – The Colts will get up early and force Matt Cassel to play catch-up.

CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Tampa Bay – This was one of the harder games of the week, with Tampa fresh off its bye week, but I see Cincy’s secondary coming up with a few plays on Josh Freeman.

Atlanta (-3) over CLEVELAND – Atlanta = good. Cleveland = not good.

Green Bay (-2.5) over WASHINGTON – I would have actually liked Green Bay more had Clinton Portis been playing. That is not saying too much for Portis.

St. Louis (+3) over DETROIT – Two bad teams; give me the points in what is virtually a coin-flip game.

Denver (+7) over BALTIMORE – Kyle Orton can have some success against this Baltimore secondary and keep this one close.

CAROLINA (-1) over Chicago – Let’s just say I don’t have too much confidence in Todd Collins behind this Bears’ offensive line.

HOUSTON (-3) over New York Giants – Competing with the Bengals game for hardest of the week. I’m guessing Andre Johnson plays this week.

New Orleans (-7) over ARIZONA – Saints bust out big time luring everyone into thinking that they are back to last year’s standards.

San Diego (-6) over OAKLAND – San Diego has the number one offense and number two defense in the NFL. Oakland does not.

DALLAS (-7) over Tennessee – The Cowboys have won the last three under Wade Phillips after a bye week, let’s make it four.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Philadelphia – The 49ers realize that they can still win the NFC West but it has to start this week.

Minnesota (+4) over NEW YORK JETS – Randy Moss has a touchdown and the Vikes are back! Besides, the Jets won’t be able to run on the Vikings defense.