Friday, October 1, 2010

Week 4 NFL Picks

Gambling is a funny thing. Last week I went a lousy 8-8 against the spread, bringing my yearly total to 25-20-3, not bad, but not where I want it to be. The funny part is how I thought I had a great week. All of the games that I felt most strongly about (Steelers, Bengals, Eagles and Colts) were winners. I loved Minnesota, Baltimore and New England in a three team teaser (if gambling were legal of course). I thought Dallas and Atlanta were great value plays and I thought to stay clear of the Giants and Redskins for gambling purposes. Then I started going through my picks and realized that I was only 8-8 overall against the spread. This happens some weeks. Who would have thought the Patriots would give up 30 points to the Bills, or Eli Manning would decide to attempt a pass in the end zone left-handed, or that Seattle is a completely different team at home. Oh wait, I knew that last one…why did I still take the Chargers, a perennial terrible September team!

Those last few games were understandable, however, and I was still happy to head into the prime time games at 8-6. Then I had to watch as the Dolphins and Packers outplayed their opponents only to lose late in the fourth quarter. I take it especially hard losing the Sunday and Monday night games. After all, these are the games that everyone is playing to either make up for a bad weekend or to turn a good weekend into a great one. Losing both last week left a very sour taste in my mouth. Ok, I hear you, enough about last week. Let’s get to this week’s picks, in which I promise you some extra hard work on the Sunday and Monday night contests.

(Home teams in caps)

GREEN BAY (-14.5) over Detroit – I have a suggestion for Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy; SPEED UP PLAY ON OFFENSE! You are blessed with one of the top QBs in the league, why in the world do you insist on using the entire play-clock, eating up eight minute drives and giving your offense as few snaps as possible. McCarthy needs to take a cue from Indianapolis and speed things up on offense. The more plays his team runs on offense, the better. Second piece of advice: This is the NFL, kickers do not miss field goals inside of 30 yards. McCarthy’s decision, or non-decision, to not allow Chicago to score a touchdown last week is inexcusable. (Chicago attempting to score was just as inexcusable.) Luckily for Green Bay, it shouldn’t come to that this week.

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver – I hate laying this many points to Kyle Orton, who is playing very well right now. Never thought I would be saying that previous sentence. I do think Tennessee wins, however, and that the margin of victory has a better chance of being 7 or 10 points than it does 6 points or less.

Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND – Cleveland has actually played relatively well this season, it just hasn’t translated to wins. The Browns have lost their three games by a combined 12 points. I think this trend continues this week as the Bengals find a way to win a tough, hard-fought road contest behind a break out performance from Mr. Ochocinco.

Carolina (+13.5) over NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans looks to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. Sean Payton’s creative offense took a big hit with the injury to Reggie Bush and now Pierre Thomas is banged up as well. I think Carolina finally gets its running game going, at least enough to hang around in this one.

San Francisco (+7) over ATLANTA – This pick is based solely on the fact that I think the 49ers are going to be this year’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team. One week they will show up and play an inspired performance against a good team. The following week they will lay an egg against an inferior opponent. That’s what happens when you have a lunatic like Mike Singletary as the coach. Scenario one is up this week.

PITTSBURGH (-1.5) over Baltimore – Charlie Batch is in for a different animal this week as I expect the Ravens to blitz the slow-footed veteran all day long. The key for the Steelers is to run the football and hit on a few big plays against that blitz. Defensively, the Steelers should sit back and play zone as Joe Flacco has seemed to struggle reading defenses but has used his arm to come up with big plays when blitzed. This is probably a toss-up, but I like the way the Steelers are playing on defense just a bit more than their rivals.

Seattle (-1) over ST. LOUIS – Who would have thought that the Seahawks and Rams would be battling for first place at any point this season? Well they are, and I still doubt that many fans outside of St. Louis or Seattle will want to tune in.

New York Jets (-5.5) over BUFFALO – Mark Sanchez has looked a great deal more comfortable in the pocket the last two weeks than he did in week one. The Bills rank near the bottom of the league with only four sacks on the season. When the Jets have an advantage with their passing game, they can be awfully good as evidenced by their last two victories.

Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE – Peyton Manning has thrown for nearly 338 yards per game and has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year. Is it possible that this guy continues to get better?

Washington (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA – All of the talk surrounding this game will be centered on Donovan McNabb returning to Philadelphia and the play of Michael Vick. The outcome of this game, however, will be decided by the Redskins defense, a unit that ranks last in the NFL in yards against. If the ‘Skins can do enough to slow down Vick and company, I think McNabb can do enough to pull off the upset, once again disappointing the Philadelphia fans.

Houston (-3) over OAKLAND – There is always at least one line that I do not understand each week and here is this week’s winner. Andre Johnson’s health is certainly a factor, but I will still take my chances laying three with Houston’s offense against an inferior Raiders squad.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Arizona – Well September is over and that means the Chargers can actually start playing football once again. Norv Turner should also follow my advice to Green Bay and speed up his offense. When you have one of the league’s best quarterbacks, your goal should be to get him as many plays as possible.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Chicago – What was lost in the Giants poor performance last week is that the offense was able to move the football up and down the field against a good Titans’ defense. Turnovers, penalties, and missed field goals led to the lopsided loss. The Giants are ninth in the NFL in passing yards despite a rough performance against Indianapolis in week two. The Bears, meanwhile, are ranked 28th against the pass and are coming off an emotional win and are on a short week. The Giants should bounce back nicely in this one.

New England (-1) over MIAMI – Miami’s secondary struggled mightily last week against Mark Sanchez, Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards. Imagine how they will fare against Brady, Moss and Welker. These two teams are actually pretty evenly matched, and I do expect a strong performance from Chad Henne and the Dolphins offense against the suspect Patriots secondary. In a shootout though, I’m going with Tom Brady and the Pats’ WRs over Henne and the Dolphins.

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