I struggled all week trying to figure out how I could win only two out of fourteen games against the spread in the NFL last week (bringing my overall record to 35-38-3). I had been coming along at a solid pace, winning around 56% of my picks, not to mention that I have been killing it in college football. I had no idea how I could lose all of my mojo on one Sunday. Then I began reading up on what I will refer to in this blog as “Black Sunday”. The Vegas sports books won money on all but three games in the NFL last week. According to Chad Millman, who writes an excellent sports wagering blog for ESPN, out of the top ten most selected games in Hilton’s Supercontest, the most decorated NFL handicapping competition in Vegas, only one was correct. Doing this research made me realize that I was not the only “expert” (and I use that term loosely right now) to struggle last week. This made me begin to feel a little better but then I began to question what happened and why did I get my proverbial thumbs chopped off.
There really is no simple answer to what happened but I tried to it simplify it none-the-less into two possible scenarios. One, much of what I thought about the NFL this season had been off a little. Or two, last week was an anomaly, let’s shake it off and get back to it. Of course the answer probably lies somewhere in between those two and the oddsmakers are certainly getting a better feel for these teams and the lines are having less and less value in them, but I feel it’s my job to find what little value there is. We did learn some things last week, which I will briefly highlight in some of the pick capsules, but for the most part I went back at it business as usual. If we see another rough week, it will become time to reevaluate. I have a good feeling that I will not need to do that, however. On to the picks…
(Home teams in caps.)
PITTSBURGH (-13.5) over Cleveland – Colt McCoy, who looked overmatched in the preseason, is going to make his first start against the league’s best defense. That is not a very good recipe for success.
Atlanta (+3) over PHILADELPHIA – Atlanta, along with my next pick, is playing as well as anyone in the NFC right now. Philly got lucky to escape San Francisco with a win last week, they won’t be so lucky again.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-10) over Detroit – New York has looked as good as any team in football the past couple of weeks. Vegas may be catching on making the G-Men a double digit favorite, but at home I still expect them to cover.
New Orleans (-4.5) over TAMPA BAY – I am torn here. We have learned that New Orleans is overvalued right now and is certainly not the team it was a year ago. That being said, I saw Charlie Batch be successful throwing the ball deep on the Bucs and I can only imagine what this New Orleans offense can do. The Bucs three wins have come over Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore and the artist formerly known as Carson Palmer. Drew Brees does not belong in that category.
HOUSTON (-4.5) over Kansas City - Houston was overvalued after their opening day win and Kansas City has been undervalued thus far but this line seems to be swinging in the other direction for these teams amid the typical overreaction. This is a perfect bounce back spot for the Texans. The Chiefs cannot take advantage of the one thing Houston does poorly (defend the pass).
San Diego (-8.5) over ST. LOUIS – I am still a believer in this San Diego team but they keep finding ways to lose. We do know one thing; this will either be a blowout or a Rams’ victory. I’m betting on the former.
GREEN BAY (-3) over Miami – I am slowly but surely losing faith in Mike McCarthy as a bettor. This is one instance where I am going to stick to my guns though. It’s helpful to know that Aaron Rodgers is expected to play and that the Dolphins secondary has not looked good recently.
Baltimore (+3) over NEW ENGLAND – Baltimore, as they proved in their playoff game last year, is a tough match-up for the Patriots. The Ravens are going to be physical with Wes Welker, physical with Tom Brady, physical with Randy Moss…oh wait, that’s another reason I’m going with Baltimore.
Seattle (+6.5) over CHICAGO – Seattle had an extra week to come up with exotic ways to pressure Cutler behind this porous Bears’ offensive line. These are two teams I am not sold on so when in doubt, take the points.
MINNESOTA (-1.5) over Dallas – Wow, when the schedules came out who would have thought a week six match-up between the Cowboys and Vikings would feature two 1-3 football teams. Dallas lost for the second time this year despite gaining over 500 yards, that’s usually a good sign something just isn’t right. I liked what I saw from Minnesota against the Jets and think they could use this game to springboard their way back into the thick of things in the NFC.
DENVER (+3) over New York Jets – If you are going to beat the Jets you have to throw the football. Well, that’s all that the Broncos can do, plus they’re at home. It’s also a tough cross-country road trip for the Jets who are coming off a Monday Night game.
Oakland (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO – Why is winless team giving a TD? What bizzaro world is this? We know that the Raiders will play hard and be competitive at the very least. This line is about four points to high.
Indianapolis (-3) over WASHINGTON – Another thing we can be certain of is a great performance from Peyton Manning when everyone is watching. The Redskins have struggled mightily to run the ball as well and that’s the only way you beat the Colts.
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE – I have been wrong on Tennessee for three straight weeks now. Jacksonville fans, the few that there are, will be hoping its four straight but I think Chris Johnson is due for a big game and I’m taking Vince Young over David Garrard in a primetime game.
Bonus Picks
Baseball
Yankees over Rangers in Five.
Phillies over San Francisco in Six.
College Football
Pittsburgh (+1) over SYRACUSE
MICHIGAN STATE (-7) over Illinois
Arkansas (+3.5) over AUBURN
Texas (+10) over NEBRASKA
South Carolina (-5) over KENTUCKY
Ohio State (-4) over WISCONSIN
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