Week Two NFL Power Rankings

Instead of taking a look game by game, here are my updated NFL Power Rankings after two weeks along with what we know about each team. Some of the familiar faces remain up top, but two Super Bowl hopefuls in the NFC take a dramatic drop after poor performances at home dropped them to 0-2.

1. New Orleans Saints – The Saints take over the top spot pending their match-up at San Francisco tonight. What we know: Drew Brees and the offense are going to score points. (Editor's Note: The Saints keep their top spot after a hard fought road victory against a desperate 49ers team.)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Does any single unit in the NFL look better than the Steelers defense right now? Can three linebackers (Timmons, Woodley, Harrison) from the same team earn All-Pro? Should the Steelers play Antwaan Randle El at QB in week three if Dixon and Leftwich can’t go? What we know: The defense, if healthy, is Super Bowl good.

3. Green Bay Packers – Everyone’s chic pick for the Super Bowl looks that much better after watching Dallas and Minnesota stumble out of the gates. Clay Matthews looks like a one-man wrecking crew (six sacks in two games) and the Pack defense has 10 sacks already; can they keep that kind of pressure up? What we know: Aaron Rodgers is pretty good.

4. Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning and the Colts looked just fine last night beating up on little brother. What we know: The Colts will finish somewhere around the 12 win mark.

5. New England Patriots – With apologies to some of the 2-0 teams out there, New England still has the look of Super Bowl contender. What surprised me the most against the Jets yesterday was the vanilla defensive gameplan by Bill Belichick. Why give Mark Sanchez time? The guy has proven he is terrible right now under pressure, why oblige and send only three and four man rushes. What we know: Tom Brady had a fairly ordinary game in New York, he’ll bounce back just fine.

6. Houston Texans – Beating the Super Bowl favorites convincingly at home and following it up by completing a 17-point comeback on the road earns you the biggest jump in our rankings. What we know: The Texans offense can score points in a hurry.

7. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers sure looked like they didn’t miss Vincent Jackson in yesterday’s beat down of the Jaguars. What we know: The Chargers are a thunderstorm and a conservative play-calling series away from being 2-0.

8. New York Jets – Rex Ryan probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his defensive gameplans and play-calling. Anyone else notice that the Jets defense got better against the pass when Revis went out of the game? What we know: The Jets defense is terrific and Mark Sanchez can be effective with time.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – With the early struggles of the Cowboys and Vikings, the AFC looks even further superior to the NFC than what I had initially thought. The Bengals defense rebounded nicely from a terrible week one performance, but the offense has to find a way to put seven, and not three, on the board. What we know: The Bengals defense isn’t nearly as bad as they were against New England.

10. Baltimore Ravens – So much for that talk about the Ravens offense now leading the way in Baltimore. The Ravens need to find a way to kick start their running game which has looked ordinary in the first two weeks, albeit against two very good defenses. What we know: Ray Lewis looks 25-years-old and has this defense playing like a top five caliber unit once again.

11. Atlanta Falcons – Showed good offensive balance in their 41-7 drumming of the Cardinals. What we know: Matt Ryan needs to become more consistent week to week for the Falcons to become Super Bowl contenders.

12. Tennessee Titans – Don’t take too much from the Titans offensive performance against the Steelers as they usually struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that excels at stopping the run. Chris Johnson and Vince Young will be just fine. What we know: The Titans wide receivers are nothing to fear.

13. Miami Dolphins – The ‘Fins go to Minnesota for a big win and an opening 2-0 start with both victories coming on the road, a great recipe towards earning a playoff berth. What we know: The Dolphins still need more from their passing game, averaging less than 150 yards passing in their first two contests.

14. Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota’s passing game looks downright atrocious right now. What we know: The Vikings need to rely even more on Adrian Peterson until Favre gets going and Sidney Rice comes back (or they trade for Vincent Jackson).

15. Chicago Bears – If Jay Cutler performs the rest of the year the way he did yesterday, I have the Bears severely under-ranked at number 15. I have my doubts though. What we know: The Bears offense already looks significantly improved under Mike Martz after only two games.

16. New York Giants – I’ll give the nod to the Giants for now in what looks like a jumbled mess in the NFC East. If I could pick any one team or the field to win this division right now, I would most certainly take the field. What we know: The Giants plan to make Peyton Manning run the football last night didn’t work out too well.

17. Washington Redskins – Blowing a 17-point second half lead is the type of loss that can have a team watching the playoffs on television. There is no way that Mike Shanahan and company can allow that to happen at home. What we know: Donovan McNabb (along with Shanahan) has given this team instant credibility.

18. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are off to a miserable start and with their brutal schedule must get it together before it’s too late. Luckily for Dallas the rest of the NFC East, and really the entire NFC, has shown obvious flaws as well. What we know: Wade Phillips seat is getting awfully warm.

19. Philadelphia Eagles – If Michael Vick was going to be the starter going forward I would probably have the Eagles a few spots higher. I don’t blame Andy Reid for playing Kevin Kolb, however, because if it were about this season only Philadelphia would not have traded McNabb. What we know: Philadelphia area sports-talk radio should be pretty darn interesting this week.

20. Kansas City Chiefs – Raise your hand if you had the Steelers, Texans, Dolphins and Chiefs as the only undefeated AFC teams after two weeks. I don’t understand the Chiefs’ strategy of not using Jamaal Charles more but it’s hard to argue with the job new coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel have done. What we know: The Chiefs have done a good job of acquiring good young talent.

21. Denver Broncos – I think Josh McDaniels is one of the better in-game coaches in football. His personnel decisions, however, can certainly be questioned. What we know: The Broncos are a completely different team at home and on the road.

22. San Francisco 49ers – I am very interested in seeing how the 49ers rebound tonight against the defending champs. Their performance could move them way up or way down these rankings. What we know: The Niners need a much better performance from Frank Gore tonight if they are going to have a chance to win. (Editor's Note: The 49ers probably deserve to be a few spots higher after their spirited performance Monday night. We'll keep them here for the time being as they are sure to move themselves up the rankings if they continue to perform at that level.)

23. Seattle Seahawks – The excitement from the beginning of the Pete Carroll era lasted a whole one week in Seattle. What we know: Much like the Broncos, the Seahawks are a completely different team at home than they are on the road.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The lowest ranked team among those still unbeaten deserves a ton of credit for finding a way to win football games. I think the Bucs’ start has a lot more to do with facing Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore at QB than anything else, however. What we know: Nobody had the Bucs and Steelers on a collision course of unbeaten teams going into week three!

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – It probably wasn’t the best day David Garrard has ever had on a football field Sunday after throwing four interceptions against the Chargers. What we know: The Jaguars are probably the best of the bad teams in the NFL, but that really isn’t saying much.

26. Detroit Lions – The Lions suffered another hard-fought loss to the Eagles after managing a late rally to pull within three. What we know: After so many years of complete incompetence from Detroit’s front office, things are finally going in the right direction for Lions’ fans.

27. Carolina Panthers – Carolina should have listened to my strategy of trying to win a game without attempting a single pass. Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, who was inserted late for the ineffective Moore, finished a combined 13-29 for 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 interceptions, four sacks allowed and a lost fumble. Carolina fans might be asking for the return of Delhomme at this point…or maybe not. What we know: The Panthers need to find some semblance of a passing game.

28. Oakland Raiders – I said the Raiders needed to beat the Rams by four points at home if they are going to show any improvement this year. Well they would have, except for the terrible play-calling in the fourth quarter that allowed St. Louis to backdoor a cover. Jason Campbell was also pulled for Bruce Gradkowski, former midget football teammate of mine, in what clearly was a motivational ploy by head coach Tom Cable, and one that worked. What we know: Run DMC (Darren McFadden) looks like he may finally be realizing all of that potential he brought to the league after leaving Arkansas.

29. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are probably lucky to be 1-1 at this point. What we know: Coach Whisenhunt and Larry Fitzgerald will probably watch Kurt Warner on Dancing with the Stars tonight and think, ‘you left us for this!’

30. Cleveland Browns – Cleveland has lost their two games by a combined five points. Unfortunately for them, there are no bonus points for close losses. What we know: You are not going to win many football games with Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace behind center.

31. St. Louis Rams – Say what you want about the Rams but the team has been very competitive in each of its first two games, already a big improvement from last year. What we know: Sam Bradford has a ton of promise but he still has a long way to go to get there.

32. Buffalo Bills – If you’re still reading this you already know how bad Buffalo is. What we know: The Bills should trade one of their three running backs to Green Bay.

Week 2 NFL Picks

I have focused my writing pretty much entirely on the NFL the past couple of weeks as the excitement for the new season has got the best of me. That doesn’t mean I haven’t been playing close attention to the rest of the sports world. Next week it will be time to catch up on some of my year-end baseball thoughts and devote some time to the college gridiron leading up to Pitt’s big show down on Thursday night with Miami.

(In reality, there hasn’t been much to talk about on a national scale in college football. This week’s slate of games is rather weak and all of the favorites won in last week’s marquee match-ups except Michigan, who was aided by the injury to Notre Dame’s quarterback. The only major storylines have been whether Boise should play for the national title, (yawn!) and Michigan QB Denard Robinson who has the look of Michael Vick 2.0).

Before we take a break from the NFL, however, it’s time to take a look at my picks for week two. Last week I finished a decent 8-6-2, with disappointing losses from the Cowboys and Chargers who I thought both outplayed their opponent for the most part. Week two in the NFL is often the most difficult week of the season as we try to decipher what was real and what was an aberration after one week. Let’s do it…

(home teams in caps)

GREEN BAY (-13) over Buffalo – Green Bay is going to score points, it doesn’t matter who they play. In what I thought was a rather bad game for Aaron Rodgers against a pretty good defense last week, Green Bay still managed 27 points. I expect that number to be higher this week and cannot see Trent Edwards keeping up.

Pittsburgh (+5) over TENNESSEE – The Steelers match-up well with the Titans as the entire Tennessee offense is built on the running game and nobody runs the ball well on the Steelers. Chris Johnson had 57 yards on 15 carries last year, his second lowest output of the season. The Steelers may not win this one, but I expect it to be close.

Kansas City (+2) over CLEVELAND – Kansas City looks a little frisky this year and you have to love their young playmakers. Meanwhile, Seneca Wallace will be starting for Cleveland. Unless Josh Cribbs returns three kicks for scores, I like the Chiefs to get off to their first 2-0 start since 2005.

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay – I hope nobody misses this Matt Moore vs. Josh Freeman shootout! Seriously, the Panthers should attempt to win this game by not attempting a single pass. I bet they could do it. Actually, it might be a better strategy than the one that allowed Matt Moore to turn the ball over four times last week.

CINCINNATI (+2.5) over Baltimore – Let’s pretend that last week didn’t happen and we would be looking at a line somewhere in the neighborhood of Cincinnati giving three. Because of one week’s events, you’re telling me this line reversed nearly six points? Not to mention the fact that Baltimore is playing its second consecutive road game on a short week against another physical opponent. Cincinnati should be able to exploit Baltimore’s weak and banged up secondary while their defense should rebound from a disappointing opening week.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Miami – I struggled with this one as 5.5 seems a bit much with Minnesota’s passing game in the shape that it is. That being said, I expect a great performance from A-Pete and a 7-10 point win for the Vikings at home.

DALLAS (-7) over Chicago – Chicago is looking to avoid a 0-2 start…wait, what? They didn’t count Calvin Johnson’s catch?!? Anyways, Dallas’ pass rush should be all over Jay Cutler this week and you know what means, interceptions galore! If the Cowboys can give Tony Romo any amount of time, I think a big performance at home is in store.

ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona – If you feel like saving Green Bay in your suicide pool for later in the year, Atlanta is a nice alternative. Did anyone else see how awful Derek Anderson looked last week, or how awful he has looked for two-plus seasons now? I still can’t fully understand what Ken Whisenhunt was thinking when he decided to go with Anderson AND trade Matt Leinart.

Philadelphia (-6.5) over DETROIT – If Matthew Stafford was playing I could see the Lions pulling the upset here but with Shaun Hill behind center I don’t see this game being very close. Looking forward to seeing what Mike Vick can do when a gameplan is in place both for him and against him.

DENVER (-3.5) over Seattle – Denver has played remarkably better at home under Josh McDaniels and I see that trend continuing this week against a Seahawks team primed for a letdown.

OAKLAND (-3.5) over St. Louis – If Oakland wants to show improvement on the field this year, they better be able to beat the Rams at home by more than 3.5 points.

New England (-3) over NEW YORK JETS – Tom Brady versus Mark Sanchez, hmmm….

WASHINGTON (+3) over Houston – Both teams could be in for a letdown after big home opening wins against hated rivals. Give me the home dog.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville – San Diego looked like it found its groove in the second half last week on offense. Jacksonville lost its two west coast games last year by a combined 61-3. I’m betting that the Chargers put half of that 61 on the board, minimum.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over New York Giants – The Manning Bowl…think a few television sets will be tuning into NBC Sunday night? I still feel as though the Colts offense will be as good, if not better, than it has been in sometime. The offensive line will get healthier as the season goes along and Manning will do what is needed in the meantime. The defense, on the other hand, may not be as good as I originally thought especially with another injury to Bob Sanders. I still feel as though that defense gets enough stops Sunday night for Peyton to do his thing and big brother puts up a big performance against little bro’.

SAN FRANCISCO (+6) over New Orleans – Ahhh, the trap game. After the way the 49ers played last week and the way New Orleans offense lights up scoreboards, shouldn’t this line be higher? Vegas knows what they’re doing. Besides, if San Fran doesn’t come out with a big effort this week, all of their offseason momentum would vanish and we could be staring at one of the worst divisions in modern history. (Ignore this paragraph when the Saints are up 24-0 in the 2nd quarter please!)

Steelers Defense Looks Super Worthy

While the New York Jets defense received all of the praise and attention this offseason, and the Baltimore Ravens defense is now bringing up all kinds of nostalgia talk after their dominating performance Monday night, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers who may very quietly have the best defense in the NFL once again. I mentioned in every conversation that I had this offseason concerning how the Steelers would perform without Ben Roethlisberger that I thought people were severely underestimating this Steelers defense. This is the same defense that just less than 20 months ago was being compared to the greatest defenses of all time. Last year defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau saw the departures of two of his starters in Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden AND saw his two best players miss the majority of the season to injuries. How many offensive or defensive units in the league could sustain injuries to their top two players and still perform at a top 5 level like the Steelers did last year?

Now the Steelers not only have a healthy Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith back but Foote and McFadden have returned, Ziggy Hood looks like another good defensive lineman, and Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley have another year of experience under their belts. To put this in perspective, not only do the Steelers have the same personnel as they did in a historical season just two years ago, they are now deeper and have more youth sprinkled in the mix. The Steelers could play out the balance of the season with Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich at quarterback and still be in the playoff hunt with this defense. Once Big Ben returns, and obviously health-dependent, this team should be shooting for nothing less than a return trip to the Super Bowl. This defense should be simply that good.

On Sunday, the Steelers held Michael Turner to 42 yards on 19 carries, roughly 60 yards less than his average per game since joining the Falcons, and held the Falcons to just nine points despite the Steelers inability to sustain drives on the offensive side of the ball. This is no cream-puff offense either, as the Falcons finished 13th in the NFL last year in points at nearly 23 per game despite missing Turner for nearly half of the season. The only Falcon that hurt the Steelers was WR Roddy White, who the Steelers were happy to give up out patterns and not allow him to make the big play. White may have had 13 catches, but his longest was for just 18 yards. The Steelers also recorded two sacks and Polamalu’s wonderful interception that went for nothing after Jeff Reed missed the game winning kick in the final seconds. You would like to see a little more pressure on the quarterback, but all in all it was a dominating performance by the Steelers defense, something they will need again in Tennessee.

Here are some other observations as we look back at week one's win over Atlanta and ahead to the tough match-up at the Titans this coming Sunday:

* I have heard a lot more complaining than I expected over Dennis Dixon’s performance. I am not sure what fans are expecting out of their back-up quarterback. Hell, Dixon’s performance was better than that of at least 12 starters around the league this past weekend. Dixon finished 18-26 for 236 yards and one interception that halted a potential scoring drive. Dixon was solid but not spectacular and avoided making any costly mistakes in the second half of a close game. No question that Dixon missed a couple of throws to the outside, and I think that was the result of him deliberately throwing balls low to avoid interceptions, but had Leftwich or Batch put up the same numbers in a Steelers’ win I do not think for one second we would be hearing the same complaints. Dixon is not the second coming of Dan Marino, but I thought there were some positives in the way he threw the ball. Now the Steelers need to incorporate the use of Dixon’s legs into the offense to truly take advantage of his skill set.

* One of these days Hines Ward will have to slow down after all these years of physical football but if Sunday is any indication, this season will not be the one.

* I thought the offensive line played reasonably well. Dixon was sacked three times, but for the most part had some time to throw and the blocking on Mendenhall’s game winning run was phenomenal. Two of the sacks occurred back to back as the Steelers reached midfield trying to put together a game winning scoring drive. On the one, I thought it was Dixon who held the ball too long and the other looked like a full out blitz. Despite doing an ok job, the Steelers will need a big performance from this unit if they are going to go on the road and move the ball against the Titans, especially in the absence of left tackle Max Starks.

* I was initially very surprised by Mike Tomlin’s decision to attempt a 55-yard field goal near the end of the first half but after seeing Reed hit the upright I was absolutely fine with his decision. In hindsight of course the move was wrong as it cost the Steelers three points when the Falcons maneuvered their way into field goal position of their own and capitalized, but if your kicker can make the field goal, you have to go after the points in a game where points are scarce. Tomlin has to have faith in his defense to make a stop there if Reed misses, one of the few things they were unable to do on Sunday.

* Looking ahead to this week’s game with Tennessee, the match-up is a good one for the Steelers in terms of having to go on the road to face a quality opponent. The Titans offense is built around running the football, something that the Steelers just do not allow to happen. In last year’s meeting, Chris Johnson was held to 57 yards on 15 carries, his second lowest outing of the year, in a 13-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh will be looking to play a very similar style game by focusing on Johnson, keeping the scoring low, and finding a way in the fourth quarter to win.

NFL Week 1 Recap

Every week (usually on Monday but I pushed it to Tuesday with the Monday night doubleheader this week) I’ll take a quick look back at each of the NFL games’ main storylines from the week that was. To me, the biggest story around the NFL after week one was not the Calvin Johnson non-catch, as bad as that rule is, it was the absolutely terrible coaching that I saw around the league. The Cowboys-Redskins coaching fiasco was the highlight, or shall I say lowlight, of the pathetic coaching jobs performed this week, but I could name ten instances off the top of my head that made utterly no sense even while they were happening. One move that I did not mind was Mike Tomlin attempting the 55-yard field goal. I see both sides of that argument, and in hindsight it cost the Steelers three points, but if your kicker has the distance I cannot fault the attempt. Here we go...

New Orleans 14 – Minnesota 9
Pretty much the entire country watched this one so there’s not much to elaborate on. A sloppy game by both teams finished appropriately with a missed chip shot field goal costing all Saints’ backers the cover. Brett Favre looked a bit rusty in his debut, but I expect both of these teams to be just fine.

Houston 34 – Indianapolis 24
Bob Sanders injured his elbow in the first quarter of the first game and did not return, what else is new. Sanders has missed more games than he has played during his six year career and boy does the Colts’ run defense suffer without him in there. The Colts will bounce back fine from this loss, but the story here is the Texans and running back Arian Foster. Could this be the year that the Texans finally get over the hump and make the playoffs? I thought Tony Dungy said it best when he said they had to win this game for that to happen. It did, so let’s see where they go from here.

Jacksonville 24 – Denver 17
In a battle of two teams headed toward rough seasons, the Jaguars found a way to get an opening day win. From the limited amount of this game that I watched it is no wonder that Jaguars fans don’t come out to the stadium. When you have David Garrard and Kyle Orton flinging balls to the likes of Brandon Lloyd, Mike Thomas, Jabar Gaffney, Kassim Osgood and Eddie Royal, how could anyone want to miss that?!?

Miami 15 – Buffalo 10
Miami was a team that the sharp bettors hammered this weekend and the Bills obliged by giving the Dolphins’ backers a gift-wrapped cover by taking an intentional safety with 1:32 left in the game trailing by three points. In related news, Chan Gailey made his NFL head-coaching return after 11 years. The Dolphins have an excellent offensive line and the two running backs, but if they are going to compete for a playoff spot, Chad Henne and the wide receivers are going to have to make some plays in the passing game.

Chicago 19 – Detroit 14
The catch that wasn’t. Seriously, why in the world does the NFL continue to annoy their fans? This is especially true with a looming lockout in 2011. Fans do not want 18 regular season games. Fans do not want to see their teams lose on some asinine “letter of the law” rule interpretation. It is time for the NFL to drop its holier than thou attitude and bring a little common sense to the game. I didn’t see the catch when it happened but got a text from a buddy who lives in Chicago and is a closet Lions fan. I immediately thought of the Troy Polamalu play in the 2005 playoffs against the Colts. Can you imagine a fanbase’s outrage if and when their team is denied a playoff or Super Bowl berth because of some rule that makes no sense? Come on Roger Goodell, quit worrying about what your players are doing on the weekend and put some common sense into your rulebook.

The loss was doubling crushing for the Lions who lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford for 4-8 weeks with a separated throwing shoulder. It’s too bad as this Detroit organization is beginning to show signs of life after the disastrous Matt Millen era. On the other side of the ball Julius Peppers made an immediate impact on the Bears as he was the one who sacked and injured Stafford. I still think they gave him too much money, but so far so good. Matt Forte also looks like a tremendous fit in the Marshall Faulk role in Mike Martz’ offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the background. Forte could be a fantasy stud this year if the Bears can only learn how to punch it in from the one.

Tennessee 38 – Oakland 13
Vince Young looked tremendous throwing the ball on Sunday. If he can continue throwing the ball that way with Chris Johnson in the backfield and the threat of his legs, the league better watch out. Many expected the Raiders to be improved this year, including myself, but let’s not overreact after one week in a tough road game, across the country.

New England 38 – Cincinnati 24
I thought the Patriots could be flying under the radar this year. Brady is healthy, Welker appears healthy, Moss is motivated for more money. They embarrassed what is supposed to be a very good Cincinnati secondary. The good news for Bengals fans is that Carson Palmer looked much better in catch-up mode than he had all of last year, throwing for 345 yards.

New York 31 – Carolina 18
Carolina is finding out the hard way in this league that it is very hard to win without a good quarterback no matter how good your running backs and offensive line are. Matt Moore threw three red zone interceptions and lost a fumble, a recipe for disaster against a good team on the road. For the Giants, we may have just seen the superstar coming out party for WR Hakeem Nicks.

Tampa Bay 17 – Cleveland 14
If it was not the first game of the year I would skip saying anything about these two very bad teams. On second thought, this column is long enough, let’s keep going.

Arizona 17 – St. Louis 13
Not such a great start for the post-Warner Cardinals. The play of the game was made by Steve Breaston whose hustle and strip tackle of a Rams defensive lineman, who was about to score on a fumble return, saved the game. Also says something about the quality of play in this one when the play of the game is made by a wide receiver tackling a defensive tackle. Sam Bradford is oozing with talent, but he is going to need to learn how to manage the two-minute drill much better than he did Sunday.

Green Bay 27 – Philadelphia 20
First, I must say that it was fun watching Michael Vick up to his old tricks. Andy Reid was also up to his old tricks foolishly calling time outs with five minutes remaining. I am officially offering my services to Reid as a clock consultant. Does the guy have any clue how to manage time?!? It was not the MVP type performance we were expecting from Aaron Rodgers for the Pack, but it was enough to get a win on the road against a solid defense. I expect this Packer passing game to start rolling here in the near-term, especially with the reported loss of Ryan Grant for the season.

Seattle 31 – San Francisco 6
In what to me was the most shocking result of the first week, the Pete Carroll era in Seattle got started with a bang. The Seahawks’ victory itself was not shocking, but the manner in which they physically dominated the 49ers was. San Fran was held to just 49 yards on the ground and was stuffed short on a key 4th and 1 on the Seahawks’ six-yard line in the first quarter. I wonder if Singletary’s boys were reading a little too much of their press clippings coming into week 1.

Washington 13 – Dallas 7
I really don’t even know where to start on this one. Dallas had 380 yards - Washington 250, Dallas had 24 first downs - Washington 17, Dallas 4.7 yards per rush – Washington 3.7. Dallas, however, had 12 penalties for 91 yards to Washington’s 5 for 42 and Dallas’ one turnover (in quite possibly the dumbest play that will occur this season from the coaches to Romo to Choice) to Washington’s none were the difference between the Cowboys winning by two TDs and losing by three, I mean six, after Shanahan kicked what at the time was a very dumb field goal. The worst part is that I thought Mike Shanahan coached an awful game and yet he looked like Vince Lombardi compared to what Wade Phillips and his staff accomplished. I could go on and on, but let’s just say that Bill Cowher’s phone number is moving up the speed dial list on Jerry Jones’ cell phone.

Baltimore 10 – New York 9
I am sure most of you reading this watched Monday’s game so we won’t go into detail. I will say that I am not quite ready to say ‘I told you so’ on Mark Sanchez, but it’s getting pretty darn close. The Jets also lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins for the season again with a torn ACL to the same knee as last year. This is a big blow to what looks like will be a dominating Jets’ defense once again, and a shame for Jenkins who seemed like a pretty likable guy on “Hard Knocks”.

Kansas City 21 – San Diego 14
In the game that probably did the most damage in your local suicide pools, Kansas City used another early season sloppy performance from the Chargers to squeeze out the only win in week one among the four AFC West teams. Norv Turner punted once in the first half and twice in the second half inside the Chiefs’ 42 while the Chiefs’ punted from the Chargers’ 31 yard line! Are you kidding me! All three of the Chargers punts went in the end zone for a touch back while the Chiefs’ went ten yards, worse than a touch back. This is definitely my number one pet peeve among NFL coaches. (Wade Phillips also punted twice inside the 40 in a game his team was struggling to score.) Someone needs to show NFL coaches the mathematical scoring odds of punting and not punting in those situations or more importantly, someone needs to tell NFL coaches to grow some balls. I also didn’t understand the Chargers’ laissez faire attitude on offense in the second half. They were throwing the ball well and moving it up and down the field, going to a no huddle would have kept momentum going and kept the Chiefs’ defense on their heels. The Chargers’ lack of urgency was what I thought most cost them this game.


That’ll do it for a look back on week one. Overall I thought it was a badly played weekend of football and even a worse-coached one. I expect to see a vastly improved performance from a number of teams this week. Oh, you thought I forgot…I’ll be back on Wednesday with a combined look back on the Steelers overtime win and a look ahead to a very tough road trip to Tennessee.

Week 1 NFL Picks

No need to beat it around the bush with some boring introductory paragraph that is usually mandatory when writing these pick columns. You have seen my season outlook and my preseason power rankings, let’s just dive right into my NFL Week 1 Picks (I guess I already made you read an introductory paragraph at this point!).

(home teams in caps)

NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Minnesota – Fired up home crowd + banged up Brett Favre – Sidney Rice = New Orleans win and cover.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Carolina – I think the Giants are in for a bounce back season. If they’re going to do that, they will need to get off to a fast start at home. That and Matt Moore on the road scares the heck out of me.

Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA – Rodgers over Kolb, thank you very much.

PITTSBURGH (+2) over Atlanta – Give me the home dog with the better defense…or just call me a homer.

Miami (-3) over BUFFALO – Miami quite possibly has the best offensive line in the NFL. Buffalo doesn’t have the best anything. Their only advantage over Miami is cold weather. Unfortunately for Buffalo, weather won’t be a factor in September.

Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO - The Lions should be able to score enough points and get enough pressure on Cutler to make this game close in the fourth quarter. Even if Detroit is down big early, a backdoor cover could easily come into play.

NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati – Give me the Patriots at home with a little something to prove this year.

Indianapolis (-2) over HOUSTON – The hardest line of the week to figure out. Are you really going to go against Manning giving less than a field goal? I didn’t think so.

TENNESSEE (-6) over Oakland – For those of you in suicide polls, here is my top pick for week 1 to win. Raiders are improved but to expect them to go on the road, across the country, against one of the league's best o-lines is asking a ton. VY is only 26-13 as a starter, the Titans are only a year removed from 13-3 and only finished last year on an 8-2 run.

Denver (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – Tough game to pick here as Denver was terrible on the road last year. Maurice Jones-Drew’s health could be the deciding factor. Since we don’t know for sure how MJD knee is feeling, give me Denver.

Cleveland (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY – Cleveland looks like a franchise that is going in the right direction while Tampa seems stuck in neutral. Give me the veteran QB in week 1, even if his name happens to be Jake Delhomme.

San Francisco (-3) over SEATTLE – Pete Carroll has overhauled the Seahawks’ roster. That could or couldn’t be a good thing. Either way, the 49ers are still the more talented team.

ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona – I will call his the pro-Sam Bradford pick, though I could just as easily call it the anti-Derek Anderson pick.

Dallas (-3.5) over Washington – Washington will be a dangerous team as the season moves along but I think it will take a few weeks before Shanahan and McNabb really settle in. Dallas showed absolutely nothing during the preseason, I expect them to come out like gangbusters.

Baltimore (+3) over NEW YORK JETS – We’ll call this the bandwagon game as no two teams have more casual fans jumping on board than the Jets and Ravens. I simply don’t trust the Sanchize at this point. Call me wacco for Flacco, for one week anyways.

San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY – San Diego is perennially a slow starter and start on the road against a division rival. Pick the Chiefs, right? Nah, I can’t get the thought of Rivers vs. Cassel out of my mind.

NFL Season Predictions

The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. Last week’s power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2010 NFL season playing out.

AFC East
New England Patriots – 11-5
New York Jets – 9-7
Miami Dolphins – 8-8
Buffalo Bills – 4-12

The return of Darrelle Revis makes the top of this division a whole lot more interesting but I still favor Tom Brady and company. The Jets defense should be enough to earn them a playoff spot but expect Miami to be nipping at their heels throughout the season.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers – 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals – 9-7
Cleveland Browns – 4-12

Baltimore looks on paper like the team to beat in this division, especially if the secondary can get healthy as the season goes on. I think Pittsburgh survives Roethlisberger’s absence and becomes legitimate Super Bowl contenders with a healthy defense. Cincinnati’s season should be interesting, to say the least, but I just don’t see the same Carson Palmer as a few years back. Cleveland is, well Cleveland is Cleveland.

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts – 13-3
Tennessee Titans – 8-8
Houston Texans – 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11

Peyton Manning hasn’t had this many weapons on offense since Edge and Marvin Harrison were in their primes. Expect Indy to make it eight straight seasons with 12 or more wins. Tennessee and Houston will both be battling for one of the coveted wild card spots but ultimately I see both falling just short. In Jacksonville, I suspect this could be the final season for head coach Jack Del Rio.

AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Denver Broncos – 7-9
Oakland Raiders – 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs – 6-10

The Chargers are once again the class of the AFC West despite the loss of LaDainian Tomlinson and the absence of Vincent Jackson. The Broncos could be in some serious trouble after trading away Brandon Marshall and losing Elvis Dumervil to an injury. I do expect marked improvement from the Chiefs and Raiders, but not enough just yet to truly compete for a playoff berth.

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys – 11-5
New York Giants – 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles – 8-8
Washington Redskins – 7-9

This division should be the most competitive top to bottom in the National Football League. I expect two teams from the “NFC Beast” to find their way into the playoffs, and those two teams could very well be whichever ones can stay the healthiest during the season.

NFC North
Minnesota Vikings – 11-5
Green Bay Packers – 10-6
Chicago Bears – 6-10
Detroit Lions – 4-12

The NFC North should be a great race between Favre and his old team in Green Bay. Many are giving the Packers the preseason edge especially after the hip surgery underwent by Sidney Rice. I look at these rosters and still see a better defense, better o-line and better running back in Minnesota no matter how much I love Aaron Rodgers.

NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 10-6
Atlanta Falcons – 9-7
Carolina Panthers – 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4-12

I do not think Drew Brees and the Saints will be as good as they were a year ago. Between the Super Bowl hangover, their knack for causing turnovers a tough thing to duplicate and their relatively healthy season last year, I just see a bit of a drop off. I do expect their explosive offense to be enough to hold off the Atlanta Falcons, however, who are looking for bounce back years from Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. If Carolina can get a bounce or two, they could very well find themselves back in the playoff hunt as well with their dynamic backfield duo. The Bucs - not so much.

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers – 10-6
Arizona Cardinals – 7-9
Seattle Seahawks – 6-10
St. Louis Rams – 5-11

The 49ers should win the worst division in football going away this year with just too many questions facing each of the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams. I do really like rookie QB Sam Bradford, who gives St. Louis’ fans some hope once again.

Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Offensive Player of the Year – Adrian Peterson
Defensive Player of the Year – Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Sam Bradford
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Earl Thomas
Coach of the Year – Mike Singletary

Playoffs
New England over New York, Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York over San Francisco, Green Bay over New Orleans

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh, New England over Baltimore
Dallas over New York, Minnesota over Green Bay

Indianapolis over New England, Dallas over Minnesota

Super Bowl XLV
Indianapolis over Dallas

Pitt Preview and Season Outlook

Pitt opens their season tonight at Utah amongst a good bit of optimism and high expectations surrounding the team. Everyone knows about the star power the Panthers possess with Dion Lewis, Jon Baldwin, Greg Romeus, Jabaal Sheard and even Jason Pinkston at left tackle, but as a friend and non-Pitt fan said to me (and I am paraphrasing), “knowing nothing else what would you say about a team traveling cross-country in its first game with a new quarterback, a new middle-linebacker, three new starters on the interior offensive line, and two new starters on the defensive line and at corner playing a team that hasn’t lost at home since 2007?” Well, glad you asked, seems like a perfect way to preview the Panthers opener tonight and season in general. Let’s take a look at Pitt’s potential weaknesses starting with the least concerning moving towards the most concerning.

Middle-Linebacker – Dan Mason, from Penn Hills High School, takes over at MLB as a true sophomore and just oozes with talent. Yes, Mason may make a mistake with some over-aggressiveness typical of a young player, but he will more than make up for it with his play-making ability. Dave Wannstedt has been raving about this kid since the day he stepped on campus and we are about to find out why. Mason could turn out to be the best in a long line of recent Pitt MLBs that include NFL players H.B. Blades, Gerald Hayes and Scott McKillop.

Defensive Tackle – Myles Caragein and Chas Alecxih are the starters at DT and Caragein brings with him plenty of experience as he was the third man in the defensive tackle rotation last season and was very solid during his time on the field. True freshman Aaron Donald, also of Penn Hills, Tyler Tkach and Tyrone Ezell are all expected to contribute at some point during the season as part of the d-line rotation. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the d-tackles as Wannstedt and his staff have proven their ability to recruit and develop defensive lineman time and again. Besides, with the attention that the two defensive ends will garner, solid play is all that is needed from the tackle position.

Quarterback – Here is where some apprehension begins. Tino Sunseri takes over from Bill Stull who surprisingly put together a pretty fantastic senior campaign. The reason, however, that Stull was able to put together that season is the same reason I would not be too concerned with Sunseri: Pitt will not ask him to do more than he is capable of. Sunseri will be asked to handoff, use play-action, throw deep and in general, give his talented receivers a chance to make plays without turning the ball over. Knowing Sunseri’s background, I see no reason he cannot accomplish this. Anything more that he can give would be a bonus. Even if Sunseri were to go down, the Panthers will have veteran back-up Pat Bostick to turn to who brings many of the same qualities.

Cornerback – Now is where Pitt fans can genuinely be concerned. The Panthers will start senior Ricky Gary and junior Antwuan Reed at corner with the third corner spot ultimately going to true freshmen K’waun Williams, an unheralded 3-star recruit out of New Jersey. This development must have been a disappointment to the Pitt coaching staff who were probably counting on the development of talented juniors Buddy Jackson (Jackson is listed at the 3rd corner spot for now, but all indications are that Wiliams will assume this role) and Saheed Imoru. Yes, unheralded three star corner recruits have panned out in the past (anyone ever hear of Darrelle Revis?), but of the three corners expected to see most of the action, only Gary has extensive experience. Wannstedt’s defensive philosophy of dropping seven in coverage and applying pressure on the quarterback with his front four, plus Pitt's experience at the safety position, could allow the Panthers to somewhat hide this weakness on defense. One positive note is that the only team on the schedule that really appears able to exploit the Panthers' CBs is Miami, with their NFL-caliber WRs and Jacory Harris at QB. A herculean effort from Romeus and Sheard will be needed for that one.

Interior Offensive Line – The area that most concerns me for the Panthers is the interior offensive line that will have three new starters and practically no depth what-so-ever. The key to everything the Panthers want to do on an offense focused on the running game begins and ends up front. Left guard Chris Jacobson is talented, has some experience and will be fine but there are certainly questions about center Alex Karabin, a former walk-on, and right guard Greg Gaskins. The good news is that both players are veterans and that the Panthers should be able to give them plenty of help in the form of double-teams, traps and the like because of their talented tackles and fullback, Henry Hynoski. The bad news is that the Panthers line will be tested right from the start. The Utah defensive line is talented, experienced and is expected to anchor what is otherwise an inexperienced defense. If this unit is to become successful at all, they absolutely must stay healthy.

Pitt’s opening game in Utah tonight is interesting to me for a number of reasons. A win would put added emphasis on the Miami game in a few weeks and could very well send Pitt onto some bigger aspirations on the national stage. A loss would refocus the Panthers season back to a Big East championship, but at the same time would once again put doubt in people’s minds about the ability of this program to make the next big step.

I like the Panthers offensive line to hold up just enough for their skill guys to make some big plays against an inexperienced Utah back seven and for Pitt’s defensive ends to make life a bit miserable for Utah’s young quarterback Jordan Wynn. Pitt wins 27-20, sending the Panthers on their way to a 4-1 non-conference record followed by a 6-1 Big East championship season, landing the Panthers in a BCS Bowl Game for the first time since 2005, with a record of 10-2.

NFL "Hard Knocks" Power Rankings

Last week we did a first look at how I would rank the Top 25 teams in college football. Now that week three of the preseason is complete, let’s stick with the rankings theme and do a first look at my NFL Power Rankings entering the 2010 NFL season. We’ll get to the Hard Knocks part in just a bit…

1. Indianapolis Colts – the Colts have looked terrible in the preseason so far, but what else is new. Say we had 44 random NFL players at each position to pick two football teams from, if I can have Peyton Manning with the first pick I will give you the next 22 and I would still feel pretty good about my chances of winning. The Colts have won 12 or more games per year for the last seven seasons for a reason.

2. New Orleans Saints – the Saints are going to be hard-pressed to duplicate the amount of turnovers they forced last season, but there is too much to love about this offense, especially with Sean Payton doing the game planning.

3. Dallas Cowboys – arguably the most talented team in the league position-by-position, this team still lacks an identity that great football teams need, unless you count their inability to win a big game as their identity. It is time this team takes the next step, or we could very well see Bill Cowher manning the Cowboys sidelines next year.

4. New England Patriots – Tom Brady fully recovered from his knee injury plus Randy Moss in a contract year equals big things for the New England offense. The question becomes whether Belichick can return this defense to its former glory days.

5. Baltimore Ravens – This could be a new era Ravens team where the offense leads the way but if Ed Reed can get healthy, the Ravens are as good as anyone in the AFC.

6. San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers is obviously the real deal but it remains to be seen how much the absence of Vincent Jackson will affect this offense and if the Chargers can get him signed at all. Rivers is still the only QB of the 2004 draft class (not named J.P. Losman of course) yet to win a Super Bowl. Have to imagine that is driving him crazy at this point.

7. Minnesota Vikings – I flip-flopped a few times between the six, seven and eight teams on this list before ultimately settling on the current order. The Vikings were one boneheaded Brett Favre throw away from being in the Super Bowl last year and should be right in contention again. They will need a healthy return from star WR Sidney Rice and Favre to remain healthy, but this team remains loaded with talent.

8. Green Bay Packers – I mentioned to a couple of people the other day that it is not far-fetched to believe Aaron Rodgers will be the best quarterback in the NFL within the next 3-4 years as Manning and Brady age. Rodgers has all the physical ability in the world and looks to have the right mental ability and instincts as well. The defense will need to find a way to pressure the quarterback better than it did last year for this team to make that next step into the NFL elite.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers – I was tempted to rank the Steelers much higher than this because I believe their potential is on par with any team in the NFL. The total uncertainty of how this team will perform without Roethlisberger and the fact that the defense is aging a bit and seems susceptible to injury forced me to drop them a few spots. If this defense can stay healthy and the team holds its own without Roethlisberger (which I think it will by the way), I fully expect the Steelers to be a Super Bowl contender.

10. New York Giants – I think people are ignoring the number of injuries the G-Men had last year and are severely underestimating the potential with this Giants team. Eli Manning has a great corps of young WRs, a stable of RBs and a solid offensive line that should make this offense pretty dynamic. With their health restored, this Giants defense should be able to get back to their ways of pressuring quarterbacks and limiting big plays, something that killed them last year.

11. Cincinnati Bengals – This could be the make or break year for Carson Palmer who hasn’t looked the same since his knee injury. I do not mean make or break in the sense that he should no longer be the starter, but the jury is definitely out on whether he remains an elite NFL quarterback or just another average starter. There are a ton of familiar names and personalities on this roster, should be interesting to watch how it comes together, or falls apart.

12. New York Jets – People seem to be getting on this bandwagon just a bit too much in my opinion. My first column I wrote for this website was named “A Quarterback League” and I for one, am far from sold on Mark Sanchez. Throw in the number of egos this team has seemed to accumulate and the absence of Revis Island and this team has as much potential to miss the playoffs as it does to make the Super Bowl. If the “Hard Knocks” portrayal of Sanchez and his lack of confidence is true, my doubts about him are just magnified.

Speaking of “Hard Knocks”, I hope everyone out there has been watching HBO’s special this year on training camp with the New York Jets. If you have not been following, watch them on-demand, record the past episodes on your DVR when they are repeated during the week, download them on the internet, do something to catch up. The three episodes so far have been great, and since we are in the rankings mood, let’s take a quick break from the NFL Power Rankings and rank my top five “Hard Knocks” moments so far this season:

1. My favorite part of this show, just like every season in the past, is the beginning of the first episode when the opening music is playing and highlights of the guys lacing up their pads for the first time, walking onto the practice field, and the first hitting drills are shown. Gives me the chills everytime, and I am sure it makes anyone who has ever played football in the past want to lace them up one more time (side note: when the players are complaining and looked tired and bored after the first few days of camp, you remember why you don’t miss playing as well).

2. Sure, Rex Ryan likes to use the f-bomb and his language on the show started a dumb media confrontation between him and Tony Dungy, but the thing I have taken most from this show about the coach is his passion for football. How many other head coaches are drilling 5th string linebackers on defensive formations, or teaching defensive linemen proper technique, or having punt catching contests with their general managers, or celebrating like a player on every big hit? Think what you want about Sexy Rexy, but his players seem to love playing for him and so would I.

3. How many kids does Antonio Cromartie have? By my count, it was seven children with five different women, and about five of those children were three years-old. Cromartie must have been a busy man in 2006-2007.

4. Bart Scott has been somewhat of a star on the show, having an outgoing personality and one that jells perfectly with head coach Rex Ryan. His best line so far had to be the one about Joe McKnight taking a pay cut from playing at USC to joining the Jets. The guys around him didn’t seem to know if they should laugh or not…

5. Ok, there are too many more parts of the show that have been great to limit this to only five spots but the special teams’ coach Mike Westhoff’s story was a great one, nose tackle Kris Jenkins has some great lines including leading the hazing of rookie Brian Jackson by tying him to the goalpost, and of course the mandatory appearance of Joe Namath who cared a little too much about the way the quarterbacks were taking snaps. If you have not seen the show yet, do yourself a favor and catch up.

Back to the NFL Rankings…

13. Philadelphia Eagles – Green Bay’s decision to make the move to Aaron Rodgers and away from Favre was a great decision a couple years back, we’ll have to see if Andy Reid’s decision to move out Donovan McNabb for 4th-year pro Kevin Kolb was just as wise. The Eagles certainly have some talent on both sides of the ball, but with that division, the season ultimately rests on Kolb’s right shoulder.

14. Tennessee Titans – The Titans are only one year removed from a 13-3 season and Vince Young looks like he has revived his career once again. The one-two punch of VY and Chris Johnson makes the Titans’ offense dangerous and we always know that Jeff Fisher will have a defense that is ready to play.

15. San Francisco 49ers – This team has drafted very well the past couple of seasons and will look to put all the accumulated pieces together this year. I like the 49ers to win the NFC West, and that is enough to get into the top half of the league.

16. Miami Dolphins – Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin were in a battle to become the highest paid possession receiver in the league and Marshall won that battle, so he gets the title of most overpaid WR. The Dolphins certainly have some pieces on both sides of the ball, but there are plenty of missing pieces as well.

17. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan seemed to take a step back from his phenomenal rookie year and Michael Turner got hurt after going over the dreaded 370 carry mark. Can the two of them bounce back and bring the Falcons back to the playoffs?

18. Houston Texans – Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson might just be the best passing combo in the league at this point, but the Texans lack of a RB and holes on the offensive line has made this team inconsistent week to week in the past, don’t see much changing this year.

19. Washington Redskins – I am a believer in McNabb, he has won every year of his career. Mike Shanahan hasn’t done too bad himself. This team should be competitive, but will be in for a tough fight in the NFC East.

20. Denver Broncos – The Broncos struggled at times last year applying pressure on the QB and have now lost sackmaster Elvis Dumervil for an extended period of time. That, and the lack of playmaker on offense, does not bode well for Josh McDaniels and company.

21. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have a good offensive line, a great running-back combo and a desperate coach trying to save his job in John Fox. That could translate into some success, but that all depends on the play of QB Matt Moore. If Moore struggles, expect to see rookie Jimmy Clausen in a hurry.

22. Chicago Bears – Time to find out if the mad-offensive genius that is Mike Martz can save Jake Cutler. I certainly have my doubts.

23. Arizona Cardinals – When you are benching your starting quarterback in the preseason for the artist formally known as Derek Anderson, you could be in for a long year. If Leinart can become anything close to what the Cardinals had hoped when they drafted him, they could still contend for the weak NFC West.

24. Seattle Seahawks – The Pete Carroll era begins with some uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball and a reliance on the health of Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. I don’t think Carroll has the welcome back party he is hoping for, but I think he will eventually do a much better job this time around.

25. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders should be one of the more improved teams this year under head coach Tom Cable with the acquisition of QB Jason Campbell. That improvement probably doesn’t mean more than 6 or 7 wins, however.

26. Kansas City Chiefs – Jamal Charles was a stud in the second half of the season last year and the Chiefs’ offense should be improved under Charlie Weis. Much like the Raiders, however, improvement this year may not translate into the wins column.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars – MJD is one of my favorite players in the NFL to watch. It is too bad there are not many residents in Jacksonville who feel the same way.

28. Detroit Lions – The offense might not be half-bad with the expected improvement from second year QB Matt Stafford along with Jahvid Best in the backfield and Calvin Johnson on the outside. The defense is a whole other story.

29. Cleveland Browns – Jake Delhomme is the starting quarterback in Cleveland. Not sure I have to say much more than that to justify this ranking.

30. St. Louis Rams – I really like Sam Bradford as a quarterback prospect and Steven Jackson is a beast. Not much else to like here.

31. Buffalo Bills – Three-headed monster at running back and a whole lot of nothing.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I dare you to try and name five Bucs’ starters; I will even spot you Cadillac Williams and Ronde Barber. Unless you play in the deepest of fantasy football leagues, I’m guessing point proven.

Preseason Top 25

The Associated Press preseason college football Top 25 poll was released over the weekend and three local teams showed up. Pitt came in at #15, Penn State #19 and West Virginia rounded out the Top 25. Now, we all know how meaningless the preseason polls should be but the truth of the matter is that they often play a role in the outcome of the season. Ask the 2004 Auburn Tigers if the preseason polls had no bearing in their undefeated team not getting a shot at the National Title. Besides, college football fans everywhere love to debate the polls and where there teams should and shouldn’t be ranked. If I had a vote, here’s how my preseason Top 25 would look. Send me your thoughts.

1. Alabama – Thought about putting Ohio St. here but we have to give Coach Saban the benefit of the doubt until the Crimson Tide get knocked off. Alabama returns the fearsome 1-2 punch of Mark Ingram, only the reigning Heisman winner, and Trent Richardson in the backfield as well as Julio Jones on the outside which could make this Tide team even more dangerous than last year.

2. Ohio State – Terrelle Pryor is my preseason Heisman favorite and the Buckeyes are the team that I most expect to make it to the BCS National Championship game.

3. Boise State – Boise returns a number of starters from their BCS busting team last year including Heisman hopeful QB Kellen Moore. We will find out if they are the real deal right away as the Broncos take on Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. for their opener and have Oregon St. at home just a few weeks later.

4. Florida – Urban Meyer and the Florida Gators do not rebuild, only reload. QB John Brantley has some big shoes to fill but expect the Gators to take on a somewhat different look without the running abilities of their quarterback.

5. TCU – Part two of the BCS busters, TCU brings back a handful of offensive players from their BCS team a year ago. The Horned Frogs must replace all-world defensive end Jerry Hughes, but seven other starters return from a damn good unit defensively.

6. Oklahoma – Last year was a stumbling block from the Sooners with a paramount of injuries. The experience that QB Landry Jones gained, however, should be invaluable for this year.

7. Texas – Texas and Oklahoma will be fighting for Big 12 supremacy once again. Texas will also be breaking in a new QB under center, Garrett Gilbert, who filled in capably after Colt McCoy left last year’s title game.

8. Nebraska – The Cornhuskers should be king of the Big 12 North in their final year before moving to the Big 10. Nebraska returns QB Zac Lee and should once again have a dominating defense despite the loss of DT Ndamukong Suh.

9. Virginia Tech – If the nation’s top running back duo isn’t in Tuscaloosa, it’s in Blacksburg with Darren Evans and Ryan Williams manning what should be an unstoppable running attack with QB Tyrod Taylor. The defense only has four returning starters, but I suspect the amount of success the Hokies enjoy this year will depend on Taylor’s right arm.

10. Oregon – Despite the loss of Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback for disciplinary reasons, I believe in Chip Kelly and his offensive coaching abilities. The Ducks should be the class of the Pac 10 and could compete for the National Title if the QB play is adequate enough.

11. Pittsburgh – This is a bit higher than many of the national pundits are ranking the Panthers, but make no mistake that this team is supremely talented. The Panthers can boast of four players on the top two units of the preseason All-American team and anything less than a BCS Bowl game would be a disappointment.

12. Iowa – Iowa found ways to win games last year in the fourth quarter, but I suspect they may have used up a good portion of their luck for this year in the process. The Hawkeyes will need better all-around performances from QB Ricky Stanzi if they are going to meet expectations this year.

13. Wisconsin – If I am picking a team not named Ohio St. to win the Big Ten this year, Wisconsin would be my pick. With a favorable schedule and John Clay back to run the ball behind the Badgers’ bruising offensive line, big

14. Miami – Time for Jacory Harris to step up. The quarterback showed flashes of brilliance last year but ultimately too many interceptions led to a downward spiral for “The U”.

15. USC – I was tempted to put the Trojans higher on the list because they still ultimately possess as much talent as anyone in the country. But the punishment handed down by the NCAA along with my questions about Lane Kiffin as a coach makes the #15 spot seem about right. I do expect a big time jump from quarterback Matt Barkley, however.

16. LSU – Les Miles is on the hot seat, but there is simply too much talent here to not have a successful season. How successful probably depends on the play of Jordan Jefferson at quarterback.

17. Florida State – The Jumbo Fisher era begins in Tallahassee with a ton of experience returning on the offensive side of the ball, including darkhorse Heisman contender Christian Ponder.

18. North Carolina – If the Tar Heels can avoid NCAA punishment, they should have a dominant defense. Butch Davis has this program back on track.

19. Oregon State – A difficult non-conference schedule and a history of starting slowly could do the Beavers in, but I expect a more focused attitude from the start and big things from the Rodgers brothers in the end.

20. Arkansas – Ryan Mallett, the one-time Michigan transfer, is getting a ton of preseason publicity and has the talent around him to put up some big numbers. Mallett certainly has the physical ability, but consider me not so sold just yet.

21. Georgia Tech – Despite losing some key pieces to their triple-option attack including running back Jonathan Dwyer, Paul Johnson’s offense will always be tough to defend.

22. West Virginia – The Mountaineers should get a big test early in a trip to LSU but Geno Smith sounds like the real deal behind center and Noel Devine returns to leave more jockstraps out on the field.

23. Notre Dame – I have too much respect for Brian Kelly as a coach and the Irish have too many weapons on offense for Kelly to play with. I think people are going to be somewhat surprised at Notre Dame’s early success.

24. South Carolina – Debated between the Gamecocks, Georgia and Auburn here but ultimately I think this is the year that Spurrier gets the South Carolina program over the hump and into a major bowl game. Of course, that depends a whole lot on the play of quarterback Stephen Garcia.

25. Penn State – I am not leaving Penn State off the list and having my mailbox filled with hate emails. But too many questions at the most important position along with an early trip to Tuscaloosa could prove disastrous for the Lions. The good news is that Penn State should be able to rely on a solid defense and Evan Royster and the ground game for most of the year.

Dixon Would Be My Starter

Today was day three of the ongoing debate in the sports-talk radio world that I am sure Pittsburghers will not hear the end of until the Steelers either win their opening game against the Atlanta Falcons or Ben Roethlisberger returns from his suspension. The debate, of course, is who should be the Steelers starting quarterback in Roethlisberger’s absence, Byron Leftwich or Dennis Dixon. The answer to me is quite simple: Dennis Dixon should be the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting quarterback until he proves otherwise.

My take has nothing to do with Dixon’s performance Saturday night in a meaningless preseason game against the Detroit Lions’ third stringers. Quite the contrary, actually, as I spent my Saturday night at a bachelor party drinking roughly 107 beers, give or take a few, hardly watching any of the Steelers exhibition, I mean preseason, game. I thought Dixon should have been named the starter the second Roethlisberger was suspended, with Leftwich brought in as insurance in case Dixon falters.

This has nothing to do with Leftwich, who has accomplished more in this league than I am guessing Dixon ever does. Leftwich, at 30-years-old, is no longer a starter in this league. He is the perfect back-up, a guy who can come in as a veteran and get the job done in case of an injury on a short-term basis. It is the same job that Charlie Batch has pretty much perfected in his time as a Steeler. Leftwich, however, has proven that he is no longer a starter in this league, at least as a viable starter for a team hoping to contend for a Super Bowl. With Dixon, the jury is still out.

It would have been much easier for Mike Tomlin and the coaching staff to turn to Leftwich in game one, or game two or whenever it became clear that Dixon was not putting the Steelers in the best position to win games if it came to that. If Leftwich falters, is Tomlin really going to feel comfortable turning the team over to an unknown in Dixon? Besides, this is a team, and more specifically an offense, built around the unique talents of its quarterback. With a shabby line and mediocre wide receivers (this is probably a bit of an understatement but the Steelers’ wide-outs are not exactly Jerry Rice and John Taylor), the Steelers offense relied heavily on Ben Roethlisberger to make big plays happen. Byron Leftwich does not have this ability, and more likely could be a sitting duck in the Steelers backfield without significant improvement in the offensive line play. With Leftwich, who WILL be the starter by the way, the Steelers will most certainly deploy a run-oriented attack, trying to keep games close and win games with their defense in Roethlisberger’s absence.

The Steelers would have used the same style with Dixon under center. But Dixon, on the other hand, would have given the Steelers the potential play-making ability with his legs that Leftwich does not have and that the offense desperately needs. Dixon showed last year in the Baltimore game that he could play this style and occasionally give the Steelers that big play with his legs. A year older and more mature, who knows, maybe Dixon could have built on that game and become a potential starter somewhere down the line in this league. Worst case scenario is that Dixon proved an incapable passer and the Steelers could have quickly turned the team over to Leftwich at that point.

It looks like it will not matter what I think, not that it ever really would or should have mattered, as Tomlin and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians seem to have made up their minds and decided to go the safer route in Byron Leftwich. If Byron can get at least two victories or more in those first four games without Roethlisberger, you will hear no complaints from this forum. I would have went with Dixon, however, and if the Steelers do indeed stumble out of the gates, there will be a lot of second guessing of Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ decision.

Time for Pitt-Wannstedt to Take Big Step

Dave Wannstedt enters his sixth season as head coach of the Pitt football team. After enduring a couple of down years with Wannstedt as the Coach preached patience and his ability to build a program the proper way, it is no secret that the Pittsburgh football program has arrived. Following two seasons where the Panthers fell just short of a Big East Championship and a BCS Bowl berth, it is now time for the program to make that final step into Big East supremacy.

In case people have a short memory, Pitt began the Wannstedt era with three consecutive sub-par seasons of 5-6, 6-6, and 5-7. It was that final game of the 2007 season, however, that marked the beginning of a new era for Pitt football. Pitt defeated West Virginia, as if I have to mention this game in detail, 13-9 in a monumental upset that denied Coach Rich Rodriguez and the Mountaineers a trip to the National Championship, and potentially changed the landscape of the Big East for the foreseeable future.

Pitt parlayed their upset over West Virginia into a 9-4 season in 2008, a season that saw two losses in particular stand out. The first, in hindsight a game that was essentially for the Big East title, was a 28-21 loss to Cincinnati. It was a game that the Panthers fell behind 28-7 before a fourth quarter rally made the score look closer than it actually was. The second was an embarrassing offensive performance in a 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. The season had to be considered a success, however, after three consecutive losing seasons and set the stage for extremely high expectations for the 2009 team.

The 2009 team, for all of its talent and success, did not accomplish what the Panthers set out to accomplish and that was to win the Big East title and play in their first BCS Bowl since Walt Harris was manning the sidelines. In each of the big games during the 2009 season, and for most of Wannstedt’s tenure (with the notable exception of that WVU game) the Panthers have failed to live up to the occasion. This was most notable in the season-ending loss in what was the de-facto Big East title game against Cincinnati. There is no need to rehash the events of what should have been the biggest win in the Wannstedt era. That loss, however, sets the stage for what should be a no-excuse 2010 season.

It is not often, outside of the usual suspects such as Florida, Texas and the like, to set such lofty goals while breaking in a new quarterback but the talent surrounding Tino Sunseri should make the new Pitt QB’s life that much easier. Pitt returns Jonathan Baldwin, arguably the best WR in the country, as well as sure-handed Mike Shanahan and a host of other talented receivers on the outside. In the backfield, they have a guy you might have heard of in Dion Lewis and a not too shabby replacement in Ray Graham. I cannot see Sunseri being asked to do much besides play-action, throwing the deep ball and hitting crossing patterns to this talented group. Both starting tackles are back from last year as well to protect Sunseri and open holes for Heisman hopeful Lewis. There are some uncertainties on the interior of the offensive line, but as long as the Panthers, namely Sunseri, avoid costly mistakes, this offense should be explosive.

Defensively the Panthers should excel once again. They did lose both starting defensive tackles, their middle-linebacker, and both cornerbacks from the 2009 unit but Wannstedt’s ability to recruit this side of the ball has players just as talented, if not more-so in the case of middle linebacker Dan Mason, ready to step in and fill the void. Mason, along with the supremely talented defensive end pair of Jabaal Sheard and Greg Romeus should spearhead a defense that had to be somewhat embarrassed by their performance in the Big East finale last year against Cincinnati.

Looking at the Pitt roster and those of the rest of the Big East teams, there appears to be no reason that Pitt should not ascend to the top of the standings this year. Cincinnati lost its coach and is also breaking in a new quarterback. WVU has question marks on defense and at QB. Connecticut and Rutgers do not have the athletes that Pitt does. Simply put, the Panthers have the most talented team in the Conference and the coaches agreed, making Pitt a runaway choice as the favorite to win the Big East.

Pitt does have a great nonconference schedule this year with trips to Utah and Notre Dame and a showdown with Miami at Heinz Field, but those games will not determine the level of success this team has. It is time that Dave Wannstedt and the Pitt football program become the class of the Big East Conference. Anything less would be a disappointing 2010 season.

Six-Pack of NFL Preseason Thoughts

With training camp in full gear and the first preseason game now behind us, here are some of my early thoughts on the 2010 season across the NFL. As we move closer to the actual start of the season, I am sure many of these points will be hit on again. Here we go…

· Many people are making a very big deal out of the Steelers first four games without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. This is coming primarily from the perceived notion that the Bengals and Ravens are going to be very good. I, for one, am not worried. If the Steelers can manage a 2-2 record, something that I believe is easily attainable (the Steelers will be the favorite in three of their opening four games, and potentially all four with the Ravens at home depending on how they have played), it will set them up to be in prime position for a playoff run when Roethlisberger returns. The Bengals and Ravens won 10 and 9 games last year, respectively, and have made some slight upgrades in the offseason, but none that should have Steelers’ fans worried that they will run away with the division.

· The Steelers will return Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith back to a defense that was one of the greatest defensive units ever only two years ago. The Steelers have also brought back veterans Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden to add stability, depth and flexibility on the defense. Those additions are far superior to the additions of Terrell Owens in Cincinnati and Anquan Boldin in Baltimore. Cincinnati’s play will be heavily dependent on Carson Palmer, who has not looked like the same quarterback since Kimo von Oelhoffen ripped up every ligament in his knee a few years back. Similarly, the Ravens high expectations are dependent on the play of QB Joe Flacco. Flacco has shown flashes but is far from a sure-thing at the most important position. Without a return to the old Palmer or a significant upgrade in Flacco’s play, the Ravens and Bengals will be right around the 9 or 10 win mark again, leaving the Steelers in fine shape when their own QB returns, a guy that they know will give them superb play.

· I loved the Redskins acquisition of Donovan McNabb and believe he has plenty left in the tank. That is no knock on Jason Campbell either who I also believe can be an average to slightly-above average NFL quarterback, and who I also think was a good grab by the Raiders, potentially allowing the Black Hole to return to respectability. Philadelphia, meanwhile, could be left kicking themselves if they end up the odd-man out in a playoff race after trading their franchise cornerstone to a divisional rival. Andy Reid is an excellent offensive coach, but we will soon find out if he is right about fourth-year quarterback Kevin Kolb. I certainly have some doubts. More on McNabb in an upcoming feature post.

· The AFC looks far superior to the NFC on paper this year. In the NFC, only the winner out West will make the playoffs and I can see only eight possible teams in the hunt for the other five playoff spots (Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta and the four NFC East teams). Meanwhile, the only AFC teams that I think you can completely write-off in the preseason are the Browns, Bills and Chiefs.

· In the NFC, only the Saints and Cowboys have the look of Super Bowl contenders at this point. I think Green Bay, New York and Minnesota (obviously dependent on you know who) could potentially join them. Minnesota would be my favorite if Favre plays, and I think he does return at some point, but as long as Tavaris Jackson is the man flinging balls for the Vikes, I give them no shot at a Super Bowl appearance.

· It would not surprise me in the AFC, however, if any one of a number of teams made an appearance in Super Bowl XLV (that’s 45 for those that aren’t up to speed on their Roman numerals). If I told you that Indianapolis, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, New York (Jets), Cincinnati or even Pittsburgh made the Super Bowl this year you would not be shocked. For my money, it really only comes down to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. It would take an unbelievable effort to knock two or three of these guys out of the playoffs in succession without superb quarterback play of your own, something that the Jets found out the hard way last postseason. That is why Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez will be the three guys I am watching most closely as the season begins.

Friday Fantasy Football Link

Because it’s Friday, because it has been a long-summer week, because the sports world is a bit slow right now, because you’re probably still digesting the 2,600 plus words on the baseball season from earlier this week, and quite frankly because nothing really has me excited to write about right now, we’re going to take the weekend off before kicking off some football topics next week.

Before we say adios to the week, however, one thing that does have people excited about that is right around the corner is fantasy football. I know everyone has their own ways of fixing, or more appropriately, improving fantasy football. Check out some ideas from the Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, on how he would change fantasy football going forward: Simmons' Fantasy Football Improvements.

Evaluating the Buccos' Trades

Major League Baseball’s trade deadline came and went on Saturday and there were a number of deals made as the contenders tried to beef up their rosters for the stretch run. In Pittsburgh, the end of July usually marks the purge of the Pirates’ roster, as the team is usually out of contention and looks to move its veteran assets for younger talent. This year was no different, though not to the extreme it has been the past couple of years, but the Pirates made three deadline deals all with the future in mind.

Neal Huntington and his staff, all-in-all, did a pretty nice job this deadline, moving veteran relief pitchers for some pieces that could potentially help the Pirates down the line. The one deadline deal, however, that is quite possibly the biggest black mark on Huntington’s resume to date did not involve the Pirates at all. We will get to that in a second, but first, let’s take a look at the three trades the Pirates were involved with.

· The Pirates traded veteran reliever D.J. Carrasco and veterans Bobby Crosby and Ryan Church to Arizona for catcher Chris Snyder and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco, as well as $3 million in cash to help offset Snyder’s total of $8.2 million due through the end of 2011. In short, I love this move by the Pirates. Between the $1.2 million remaining in cost on the three players moved, the Pirates essentially picked up a solid major league catcher for the 2011 season for approximately $4 million and received a throw-in shortstop prospect to boot.

There is really nothing to be said of the three departed players. Church and Crosby were busts as free agent acquisitions and offered no value to the Pirates this year or in the future and Carrasco, while being quite effective this year out of the bullpen, is easily replaceable. In return, the Pirates picked up a potential starting catcher in Chris Snyder who is much better than his .231 average would indicate. For proof, Snyder’s three year average .OPS of .770 would rank 6th among National League catchers this year and he is known as a solid defensive catcher, something Pirates’ fans have not seen in some time. Snyder will also give the Pirates some flexibility in moving Ryan Doumit to either right field or first base, or even the option of moving him in another trade this offseason.

Ciriaco is known as a good defensive shortstop prospect with not much of a stick, as his career .659 OPS in the minors would indicate. Even still, with the Pirates glaring hole at the shortstop position throughout the organization, taking flyers on guys like this is a smart approach.

· The Pirates then sent closer Octavio Dotel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher James McDonald and minor league outfielder Andrew Lambo. Those around Pittsburgh were calling this a salary dump, while those nationally were calling this a nice trade by the Pirates. I fall in the second camp on this one, as a veteran closer makes no sense on a young team that is going to be lucky to win 60 games. McDonald is a 25-year-old pitcher with nice raw stuff and the ability to start while Lambo was once thought of as a high-end prospect until a drug suspension earlier this season derailed his progress some. Both are great examples of buy-low candidates who could become a significant part of the Pirates future. For more, check out Keith Law’s take on this trade here: Dodgers give up too much for Dotel.

· The third and final trade made by the Pirates was giving up another veteran reliever in Javier Lopez to the San Francisco Giants for a pair of 27-year-olds, pitcher Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker. Lopez, while very effective as a left-handed arm out of the bullpen, is once again an unneeded commodity on a young, losing team. I like that the Pirates sold him at peak value for a couple of players, while not being top prospects, could potentially help them somewhere in the future. Martinez and Bowker have both shown some success in the minors and, who knows, maybe one or even both could become late bloomers in the big leagues.

As I said before, all-in-all, I like the three moves that the Pirates made at the deadline. I was not the only one who approved either, as Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory, gave the Pirates an A minus on all three of their deals. You can read more of Szymborski’s thoughts here: Grading the deadline deals.

There was one trade, however, that may have been off the radar of Pirates’ fans that certainly got my attention. The Washington Nationals traded closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos and left-hander Joe Testa. Despite having a bit of a down year, Ramos is still one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. Prior to this season, Ramos was a consensus top 100 prospect throughout baseball. Capps, as everyone will recall, was not tendered by the Pirates for arbitration, and indications were that the sides were only roughly $500 thousand apart. Huntington’s hard-line stance has now cost the Pirates a chance to acquire a top prospect such as Ramos.

This criticism should not come as a surprise to any of my readers as I went on numerous times in the preseason on why this was a terrible move on Huntington’s part. For all of the criticism Huntington has received, most of it undeserving at this point, this line of events should be getting more attention. There was no excuse at the time to let Capps walk, and the Nationals ability to spin Capps into such a valuable commodity only heightens the poor decision. So while I believe the actual moves made by the Pirates were a positive, I cannot help but think of the Capps’ events as the defining moment of this trade deadline.

Just like the past 17, soon to be 18 seasons, the Pirates have come out a loser.

MLB Mid-Season Chat

Better late than never as they say. Here's the mid-season chat some buddies and I had about two weeks ago discussing all-things Major League Baseball. Joining us once again are Curt and Tom, two die-hard baseball guys that have entirely too much time on their hands to look up Brandon Boesch' OPS+. Enjoy...

Me: Ok Guys, welcome to the post All-Star break chat. Thanks for joining us once again. Let's just dive right in to what everyone likes to talk about....surprises. What are your biggest first half surprises?

Tom: It has to be the Padres. They're everything people thought the Mariners were going to be.

Me: I know somebody is dying to mention the Reds in first place, well now second I guess.

Tom: I thought you said 'surprises'?

Curt: Have to say Padres, it is somewhat legit as well. It’s not like the D-Backs a couple years ago or Mariners last year. I still don't think they are going to win it but see no reason they can't be there the whole way though.

Me: Yea, I guess that is going to be the common answer. Have to like their young arms, but can they really sustain this with one legitimate hitter in the line-up?

Tom: Chase Headley has come on the past few weeks after a tough June. Nobody in the lineup has legitimate 20-HR power, including Headley. Adrian Gonzalez shouldn't see another pitch all season from the Rockies and the like.

Curt: He took Haren the opposite way in SD the other night. That can't happen all the time.

Me: How about in the AL....Rays are somewhat surprising. We all know they had the talent, but not sure anyone saw them doing this well

Tom: The Rangers are more surprising than the Rays I think. They've taken a guy throwing in Japan and put him into the rotation for a 9-5 record.

Curt: I liked the Rays before the season. I think that division has been pretty much as expected after the Rays got off to that great start.

Me: The Rangers have gone out and acquired Cliff Lee.

Curt: White Sox are more unlikey I think. Freddy Garcia has 9 wins. Peavy has stunk and is now out and they are still in first.

Me: Well you and I were both on board with the Rangers preseason Tom, but that was more a byproduct of their division. They have played very well, and Vlad looks like a new man and Josh Hamilton is healthy. Rangers are going to be dangerous in the postseason.

Me: I, cough cough, also picked the White Sox preseason, but I am as surprised as anyone they have overcome that terrible start. A lot of credit has to go to Ozzie there.

Tom: The White Sox still have too much that can go wrong with them to be patting yourself on the back.

Me: That division is coming down to the last week I think between all three teams.

Tom: Minnesota is still my pick.

Me: Detroit, who I would like to pick, can't win a game on the road though.

Curt: I’d predict Twinkies as well. Should be a good race though, could be quite a few.

Me: That was a good segue to my next topic anyhow. There are some great pennant races shaping up, how do you see them finishing?

Tom: Yankees-Twinkies-Rangers-Rays

Curt: Phillies are in big trouble. I would not have believed that before the season. Hopefully, for the Reds and Braves fans in the room, they just think they are unlucky.

Tom: Braves (NL pennant)-Redlegs-Rockies-and one of the Sans out West.

Me: Preseason we all had the Cards, Phillies and Braves, I went Dodgers, you guys went Rockies. In the AL, all had the Yanks and Red Sox, you two Twins, me White Sox and Curt was the lone Angels backer against Tom and I with the Rangers.

Tom: San Fran or San Diego for the NL wild card.

Curt: The NL is really tough to predict I think.

Tom: Just think, if Atlanta still had Neftali and Elvis (Editor’s note, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, two young studs in the middle of the Rangers surge, were traded by the Braves in the Mark Teixeira deal.)

Me: I think the Phils will snap out of it and get the wildcard. The NL West is going to beat each other up, and the Rockies find a way once again.

Tom: Cardinals wouldn't be a bad bet. They've still got a bunch of games against some very bad NL Central teams.

Curt: AL - NYY, Rays, Twinkies, Rangers. NL Bravos, Reds, Rocks, Cards. The NL West could beat each other up. I agree.

Tom: The Cardinals have the 2nd easiest 2nd half schedule.

Curt: Say the Cards get to play the Astros and Pirates 20 times still, I bet that’s why.

Tom: Yep. The Reds have the easiest remaining schedule. And the Reds #4 and #5 starters out of the break have at 14-3 combined record.

Curt: What if the Reds face Oswalt 3-4 times though? (Editor’s note: This chat was done pre-Oswalt to the Phillies.) They have to play Houston a ton, because they should almost be done with the Pirates. Still easy?

Tom: Assuming Oswalt is still on the Astros...

Curt: Ya, maybe a Card. I doubt he gets moved though. (Editor’s note: Wrong on that one, Curt!)

Tom: The Reds finish their playoff push with Pittsburgh, Arizona, Houston and Milwaukee from September 10 to 22.

Curt: Arizona, that’s a pretty nice gift. They may be the worst.

Me: Very easily could be their path in. They have some depth with the arms now too. Like Curt said, NL is very tough.

Me: Final predictions?

Tom: Cards at WC. Talked myself into it.

Me: I'm sticking with my AL preseason picks by the way....hope I look very smart at the end of the year. Going to need a big push and some luck for the Red Sox. I think I have the Reds just barely missing, and the Phils snatching the WC. But I will be rooting hard for the Redlegs just for you Tom.

Tom: Thanks. There is still room on the wagon.

Curt: I think the numbers are in their favor for the WC, Braves, Reds, Rox, Cards. NYY, Twins, Rangers, Rays. The AL central is interesting at least.

Tom: The Twins haven't had Morneau for some time and Mauer is banged up too. Those guys will come back and everything will be fine.

Me: Ok, let's wrap it up with some awards. I put mine on the site Friday. Who do you guys have as the midseason major award winners and who do you have winning them at the end?

Curt: Votto will be the NL MVP. I like Josh Johnson's momentum and the voters don't look at just W's anymore.

Me: If you missed it, my MVPs were Miggy Cabrera and Pujols, Cy Youngs were Ubaldo (by a nose on Josh Johnson) and Price, Managers were Bud Black and Ozzie Guillen and ROYs were Heyward and Boesch.

Curt: Votto has gotten big hits all season, easy to remember them.

Tom: Votto and Cano for MVP. Cano is the best hitter having an MVP-esque season on the Yankees. Impossible to ignore.

Curt: ROY, I’d go with Heyward but I think he may wear down and get passed by Strasburg. Of course Strasburg will get shut down.

Me: if Miggy comes close to the Triple Crown, he's going to win it though. Votto and Pujols were neck and neck on my ballot.

Curt: It’s a shame for Morneau, he was killing it.

Tom: Cy Youngs will be Ubaldo with over 20 wins and dependent on who makes the playoffs out of the AL Central will determine that Cy Young.

Me: I'll say NL MVP should go to the winner of the NL Central, pretty easy tiebreaker there. I like Josh Johnson too, unless Ubaldo wins 22 or 23....which I thnk he will.

Tom: I'd like to say Liriano for AL Cy Young because he has been so fantastic and Cliff Lee is now in Texas.

Me: Give me your final picks for the MVPs and Cy Youngs....and if you feel like it, ROY as well.

Curt: I’d go with Miggy for MVP, they should be in a tight race for a while, that helps.

Tom: Votto and Cano, Ubaldo and Liriano( with close to 20 wins).

Curt: Have to go Lee in AL I think.

Me: Lee's a good pick. Should have some good momentum if he keeps winning.

Curt: Throws a complete game almost every time it seems like. 7 walks in 121 IP

Curt: My final votes are Votto, Miggy, Lee, Johnson.

Tom: ROY, I'm sticking with my Neftali Felix pick and NL ROY I'll go with Heyward in possibly an undeserving ROY win.

Curt: Feliz is a ROY?

Me: I don't think Feliz is beating out Boesch unless his numbers fall off a cliff.

Tom: Feliz, yes.

Tom: Feliz has to save one more game than Soria to lead the AL, Boesch won't hit the same.

Curt: Boesch OPS + is 151, he could be terrible for a while and still win it, as you said.

Me: Ok guys, I know people are busy in the summer and don't have time to read us go on all day about baseball, which I know we could, so give me your world Series winner as we stand today and we'll call it a wrap.

Me: I go Yankees.

Curt: Yanks, have the best team. Still take them.

Tom: Reds. (Editor’s note: No favoritism there!)

Me: We'll end it on Tom picking the Reds....ahhhh for us Pirate fans, we can only dream of the day we can pick the Buccos to win the World Series in July!