College football begins week three tonight so I am a bit behind in releasing my initial thoughts on the season. The good thing is that outside of Oregon and Notre Dame, not much has changed since opening kick-off a couple of weeks ago. Here is my first look at the top teams in the country:
1. Alabama – That’s right, Alabama was my preseason #1 team last year and they are #1 on my first (meaningless) ballot this year. Trent Richardson is back and the defense features at least 8, and probably more, future NFL players. Sure, they had to replace the QB, but they are one of the few teams that rely on the quarterback so little. Their dominant performance in Happy Valley last week solidified by belief that this is once again the team to beat.
By the way, despite finishing the 2010 season with three losses, I still believe that ‘Bama was the best team in the land last year and would have been my pick had an extended playoff been played. That being said…Auburn absolutely deserved the National Title and it was a year in which the BCS system worked out ok (unless you are a fan of TCU, of course).
2. LSU – Did anyone see how fast the Tigers’ defense was against Oregon? Who cares that QB Jordan Jefferson may not suit up the entire year and WR Russell Shepard was suspended for the first three games of the year…plenty of athletes to go around in Baton Rouge. LSU goes to Alabama on November 5th in a game that could decide which team plays for the BCS National Championship in New Orleans come January 9th.
3. Wisconsin – I absolutely love this Wisconsin team who returns size, speed and experience and filled their one glaring hole, quarterback, with a guy who has over 8,500 passing yards, over 1,000 yards rushing and nearly 100 TDs in his career at NC State. I was tempted to put Wisconsin at #1 because I think they may have the clearest shot at the national title game amongst the BCS conference teams but I just couldn’t justify putting the Badgers ahead of the SEC beasts.
4. Oklahoma – The Sooners sport the nation’s best offense led by QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles but it has been a while since head coach Bob Stoops has won a big game. Oklahoma gets its first big test this week in Tallahassee.
5. Boise State – This is what I wrote last year: “Boise returns a number of starters from their BCS busting team last year including Heisman hopeful QB Kellen Moore. We will find out if they are the real deal right away as the Broncos take on Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. for their opener and have Oregon St. at home just a few weeks later.” Not much has changed except the fact that Boise has already passed its first test of the year in week one against Georgia in a convincing fashion. TCU is the only ranked team remaining on the Broncos schedule so the question becomes whether an undefeated Boise team will be worthy of a national title shot over a one-loss SEC, Big 12 or Big 10 team.
6. Stanford – Stanford has the nation’s best QB in Andrew Luck and an experienced defense to count on but has some questions up front and at wide receiver. The Pac-10 is a bit down, however, and this could be Stanford’s best chance to play for a national title for the next couple of decades as it’s not every day that the Cardinal get a talent like Luck.
7. Virginia Tech – I do not, necessarily, think that the Hokies are the seventh best team in the country but I do think they are the best team in ACC and David Wilson is a highlight waiting to happen. You can count on Frank Beamer’s teams to always have a great defense and special teams but the big question is at QB where sophomore Logan Thomas takes over for four-year starter Tyrod Taylor.
8. Florida State – Most “experts” have FSU ahead of Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order but I have seen enough of QB E.J. Manuel to have some serious questions. I also don’t trust the Seminoles’ defense nearly to the degree that I trust Virginia Tech’s. FSU does have a ton of talent returning, however, and we are going to find out just how good they are this week as they host Oklahoma.
9. Oklahoma State – Offensive guru Dana Holgorsen may have moved on to WVU but QB Brandon Weeden, WR Justin Blackmon and a whole host of offensive talent returns in Stillwater. If there’s an offense that can rival Oklahoma’s it is this one but there are tons of questions marks on a defense that wasn’t very good last year to begin with.
10. South Carolina – Steve Spurrier’s bunch is going to score lots of points this year as they proved in their first two contests and running back Marcus Lattimore is a true Heisman contender. Can the defense improve enough to make a run at the SEC championship?
11. Texas A&M – I can’t remember the last time the Big 12 has been this deep. It is saying something when Texas is probably the fourth most talented team in the conference. The Aggies, in what is most likely their final year in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC, are led by QB Ryan Tannehill and a tremendous defense despite the loss of Von Miller. The Aggies take on Oklahoma State next Saturday in a big-time early season clash.
12. Nebraska – Taylor Martinez is back and should be better with a year of experience under his belt. The defensive front should once again be tremendous with dominant defensive tackle Jared Crick leading the way. Questions at the skill positions and along the offensive line will make the Cornhuskers transition to the Big 10 interesting.
13. Oregon – This might be a little low for the Ducks but I wasn’t quite as high on Chip Kelly’s bunch to start the season either. Oregon’s offensive line was dominated in the championship game last year and had even more question marks going into this season, questions that certainly weren’t answered in their loss to LSU. I do love Darron Thomas and LaMichael James but they are going to shoulder an awful heavy load if this team is going to repeat in the Pac 10.
14. Ohio State – Despite the defections, the suspensions and the turmoil at Ohio State, let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that this team is not extremely talented. The top five recruiting classes that Jim Tressel was continuously bringing in are still there and I suspect the remaining Buckeyes might have something to prove, starting this week against Miami.
15. Arkansas – Arkansas’ bid at making it back-to-back BCS Bowl games took a major hit with the preseason injury to RB Kniles Davis. The Razorbacks have still looked tremendous on offense in their first two games, albeit against a couple of cream puffs. I would be higher on the Hogs if wasn’t for a brutal schedule that includes six teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25, four of those currently in the top 10, and trips to both Alabama and LSU.
16. West Virginia – WVU has gotten off to a slow start in each of their first two games but it is only a matter of time before QB Geno Smith and a talented group of wide receivers hit their stride in Dana Holgorsen’s new offense.
17. Florida – Much like Ohio State, the fabulous talent brought in over the past few recruiting classes is still there in Gainesville and it now falls on new coach Will Muschamp to harness that talent.
18. Arizona State – The Sun Devils brought back a ton of starters from their team a year ago and so far Brock Osweiler has played well at quarterback, the big question mark entering the season.
19. Auburn – I have no idea what to make of this Auburn team. They have looked tremendous at times in their first two games and downright awful at other times but they keep finding ways to win.
20. Michigan State – Although the Spartans return a good bit of talent from last year’s 11-2 squad, including QB Kirk Cousins and RB Edwin Baker, they lost a ton of leadership and talent on defense in LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon.
21. South Florida – It wouldn’t surprise me if West Virginia, South Florida or Pitt won the Big East. South Florida has looked the best so far with an impressive, although somewhat unusual win in South Bend in their opener.
22. Texas – No doubt that Texas has as much pure talent as anyone in the Big 12, and maybe the country, but a QB mess looms large over the program with the new plan being to rotate sophomore Case McCoy (yes that’s Colt’s brother) and freshman David Ash and putting the experienced Garrett Gilbert on the bench.
23. Baylor – No quarterback controversy here as Robert Griffin III is one of the country’s most dynamic athletes and has already led Baylor to a huge win over TCU in what could go down as the game of the year despite being played on opening weekend.
24. Penn State – I like this Penn State team despite the ugly loss to Alabama last week. I only wish that JoePa and his staff would settle on Robert Bolden at quarterback. He is obviously more talented and has a good bit of room to grow over former walk-on Matt McGloin. I expect the Lions to rebound over the next few weeks before taking on the grind of the Big Ten schedule.
I also thought about putting Notre Dame in this spot, but couldn’t pull the trigger after two very strange losses. I’d like to bet that the Fighting Irish and Coach Brian Kelly rebound from these losses and finish the season with at least 8 or 9 wins and firmly entrenched in the top 25.
25. Michigan – There are plenty of teams that could claim this spot this early in the season but after Michigan’s thrilling victory and the excitement Denard Robinson brings on every play, the Wolverines get the nod at this point. Other teams that I considered included USC, TCU, Missouri, Mississippi State and Tennessee.
Not Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh – I am certainly not sugar-coating it when I say that Pitt has looked awful in its first two games allowing a pretty bad Buffalo team to rack up 400 yards in the opener and then surviving with a 35-29 win over a I-AA team in Maine. QB Tino Sunseri has played terribly, the offensive line has looked lost, the linebackers look slow and the pass-coverage has been suspect at best. Add those up and you have what amounts to a pretty poor season on the horizon. That’s the bad news…the good news is that the Panthers are 2-0 and now begin what is the real part of their schedule. Ray Graham looks even better than advertised, the defensive line is every bit as good as it is deep and the Panthers should begin to play better as they get more comfortable in their new offensive and defensive systems.
To be honest, I really do not have a feel for where this season is headed. I think Sunseri will play better than he has. He’s not a superstar but he can be effective, especially with the threat of Graham running the ball. I also think the offensive line and secondary will play better as they become more accustomed to the new schemes. As for the linebackers, I don’t think the new systems gels with the talent on hand and they could remain a work in progress as the season progresses. With a mediocre Big East, it would not shock me one bit to see the Panthers win the conference. It also wouldn’t shock me to see the Panthers stumble to a 7-5 type season. I think we will learn a whole lot more about this team after this week when they make the trip to Iowa to play a solid, disciplined and well-coached Hawkeyes team that should be fired up after losing an overtime game to their in-state rival last week. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Panthers do so we can begin assessing Coach Graham and the new era of Pitt football.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Friday, September 9, 2011
Week 1 NFL Picks
Well my 2011 NFL picks got off to an unlucky start last night by virtually nailing everything about the game but coming up one-yard short on the Saints covering the spread. What a tremendous way to open the season, however, and a great beginning to this season’s MVP race.
My only complaint about the game, and I have to preface this by saying that I think Sean Payton is the best offensive mind in the NFL right now (with apologies to Andy Reid and Peyton Manning), but on the two biggest plays of the game I thought the formations and play-calls were so predictable…especially the fourth down play-action pass when the Saints had receivers spread across the field. The Packers defenders never even hesitated on the run fake and the same thing on the final play when every Packers player sold out to stop the run and a naked bootleg would have let Drew Brees walk into the end zone. Ah well, it’s only one game, 255 more to go.
In case you were wondering, I finished last year above .500 at 127-122-7, but below the coveted 53% mark to make a profit. I promise to improve on that this year…or at least go down trying!
(home teams in caps)
Pittsburgh (+1) over BALTIMORE – Baltimore is a good, solid football team but their weaknesses lie in the secondary and on the offensive line, not a good combination against the Steelers.
Atlanta (-2.5) over CHICAGO – Tempted to pick the upset here but I think Atlanta will be ready to play after their disappointing exit from the playoffs last season.
TAMPA BAY (-1) over Detroit – The Lions should be much improved but I can’t trust them on the road until they prove something. Josh Freeman leads a fourth quarter drive for the win.
KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo – Ryan Fitzpatrick playing on the road against a fast defense, no thanks!
HOUSTON (-8.5) over Indianapolis – I don't think the Colts will be as bad without Manning as most people do, but I don't think they will be very good either.
Tennessee (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – The Jaguars cut their starting quarterback heading into the first game of the season, I don’t think that will work out too well.
Philadelphia (-4) over ST. LOUIS – If you frequent the blog, you know how highly I think of Sam Bradford but Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and that Eagles offense in a dome on that fast turf will be too much.
Cincinnati (+6.5) over CLEVELAND – The Bengals are in for a long rebuilding year but I think they keep this one close.
New York (-3) over WASHINGTON – Eli is going to bounce back in a big way this year and I love his weapons on the outside. The G-Men are going to have problems on the other side of the ball but that shouldn’t be a big problem against the Redskins offense.
Carolina (+7) over ARIZONA – Carolina is going to run, run, run some more and hope their defense can keep them in the game. I think it works enough to keep this one close but Arizona ultimately wins.
San Francisco (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Tavaris Jackson starting on the road, or anywhere for that matter, is not going to lead to many wins. Jim Harbaugh wins his debut as the 49ers coach and Pete Carroll remembers how it was much easier to beat Harbaugh at Stanford when he was at USC and could pay his players more.
Minnesota (+9) over SAN DIEGO – San Diego is a perennial slow-starter and the Vikings are going to be much improved from a year ago. I’m not calling the upset, but I think this one is closer than you would expect.
Dallas (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS – Romo is back and the Cowboys have plenty of weapons around him if Miles Austin is able to play. I was worried about the Cowboys depleted secondary but remembered it will be Mark Sanchez trying to take advantage.
New England (-7) over MIAMI – I bit on Chad Henne a bit too much last year and he has to prove to me that he can be an adequate QB in this league before I back the Dolphins this year. Besides, I’m not going against my Super Bowl pick in week one.
DENVER (-3) over Oakland – The Broncos can really get after the QB and the Raiders are a little shaky up front. Can somebody tell me why this game is on Monday night?
My only complaint about the game, and I have to preface this by saying that I think Sean Payton is the best offensive mind in the NFL right now (with apologies to Andy Reid and Peyton Manning), but on the two biggest plays of the game I thought the formations and play-calls were so predictable…especially the fourth down play-action pass when the Saints had receivers spread across the field. The Packers defenders never even hesitated on the run fake and the same thing on the final play when every Packers player sold out to stop the run and a naked bootleg would have let Drew Brees walk into the end zone. Ah well, it’s only one game, 255 more to go.
In case you were wondering, I finished last year above .500 at 127-122-7, but below the coveted 53% mark to make a profit. I promise to improve on that this year…or at least go down trying!
(home teams in caps)
Pittsburgh (+1) over BALTIMORE – Baltimore is a good, solid football team but their weaknesses lie in the secondary and on the offensive line, not a good combination against the Steelers.
Atlanta (-2.5) over CHICAGO – Tempted to pick the upset here but I think Atlanta will be ready to play after their disappointing exit from the playoffs last season.
TAMPA BAY (-1) over Detroit – The Lions should be much improved but I can’t trust them on the road until they prove something. Josh Freeman leads a fourth quarter drive for the win.
KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo – Ryan Fitzpatrick playing on the road against a fast defense, no thanks!
HOUSTON (-8.5) over Indianapolis – I don't think the Colts will be as bad without Manning as most people do, but I don't think they will be very good either.
Tennessee (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – The Jaguars cut their starting quarterback heading into the first game of the season, I don’t think that will work out too well.
Philadelphia (-4) over ST. LOUIS – If you frequent the blog, you know how highly I think of Sam Bradford but Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and that Eagles offense in a dome on that fast turf will be too much.
Cincinnati (+6.5) over CLEVELAND – The Bengals are in for a long rebuilding year but I think they keep this one close.
New York (-3) over WASHINGTON – Eli is going to bounce back in a big way this year and I love his weapons on the outside. The G-Men are going to have problems on the other side of the ball but that shouldn’t be a big problem against the Redskins offense.
Carolina (+7) over ARIZONA – Carolina is going to run, run, run some more and hope their defense can keep them in the game. I think it works enough to keep this one close but Arizona ultimately wins.
San Francisco (-5.5) over SEATTLE – Tavaris Jackson starting on the road, or anywhere for that matter, is not going to lead to many wins. Jim Harbaugh wins his debut as the 49ers coach and Pete Carroll remembers how it was much easier to beat Harbaugh at Stanford when he was at USC and could pay his players more.
Minnesota (+9) over SAN DIEGO – San Diego is a perennial slow-starter and the Vikings are going to be much improved from a year ago. I’m not calling the upset, but I think this one is closer than you would expect.
Dallas (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS – Romo is back and the Cowboys have plenty of weapons around him if Miles Austin is able to play. I was worried about the Cowboys depleted secondary but remembered it will be Mark Sanchez trying to take advantage.
New England (-7) over MIAMI – I bit on Chad Henne a bit too much last year and he has to prove to me that he can be an adequate QB in this league before I back the Dolphins this year. Besides, I’m not going against my Super Bowl pick in week one.
DENVER (-3) over Oakland – The Broncos can really get after the QB and the Raiders are a little shaky up front. Can somebody tell me why this game is on Monday night?
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Opening Night Prediction
New Orleans @ Green Bay (-4.5). This NFC clash matches the last two Super Bowl Champions and could very well be a preview of this year's NFC Championship game. I love the addition of Mark Ingram to the Saints' offense and I think Sean Payton will have these guys flying around tonight. I expect a high-scoring affair that comes down to the final possesion and when that's the case, I'm taking the points, New Orleans (+4.5).
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
2011 NFL Season Predictions
The Blog is back after an extended break, recharged and ready for the start of the NFL season, the baseball playoffs and the old college gridiron. Today, we dive into the NFL preview, Friday we will be back with the first week's picks and early next week I'll unveil my first top 25 of the college football season, plus a little bit extra on your Pitt Panthers as they head into the real part of their schedule.
If you recall my pre-preseason power rankings for the NFL, really not a lot has changed in the pecking order. Green Bay still has the most loaded roster with New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta hot on their trail in the NFC. New England and Pittsburgh continue to look like the class of the AFC with the Chargers, Jets and Ravens looming in the background. Dallas, Houston and the rest of the NFC North continue to be darkhorses as teams who could jump from last to first. The only real change, and it’s not really a change, is the continued uncertainty about Peyton Manning’s health. If Manning plays 16 games, it is as sure as the Pirates will have a losing season that the Colts will be in the playoffs. Without Manning for part or even all of the season, the AFC South just got a whole lot more interesting.
To steal last season’s opening remarks because frankly, I don’t think I can write it any better: The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with what might be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. The pre-preseason power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2011 NFL season playing out.
AFC East
New England Patriots – 12-4
New York Jets – 10-6
Miami Dolphins – 6-10
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
The Patriots added some veteran star-power to an already star-laden line-up. Tom Brady is probably entering the end of his prime and realizes that he will not have a whole lot more opportunities to win another Super Bowl. The Jets will once again have a tremendous team held back by a below-average quarterback and the Dolphins and Bills may improve some but not enough to gain ground on the Jets and Pats.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4
Baltimore Ravens – 10-6
Cleveland Browns – 6-10
Cincinnati Bengals – 3-13
Funny how much can change in one year. Last year at this time we were discussing how the Steelers could survive the first four games without Ben Roethlisberger and a year later we are nitpicking their weaknesses after appearing in their second Super Bowl in three years. The defense should once again be the best in football and Roethlisberger looks better than ever and has a full complement of weapons to distribute the ball to. Baltimore, meanwhile, saw some turnover on its roster during the offseason. One of the moves I liked best was bringing in Lee Evans from Buffalo to stretch the field. The Week One battle should give one of these teams a big leg up in the division. I also like the direction that Cleveland is heading in and they are hopeful for another step forward from QB Colt McCoy. Cincinnati, meanwhile, begins a rebuilding job with rookies Andy Dalton as their franchise QB and AJ Green as his primary weapon.
AFC South
Houston Texans – 10-6
Indianapolis Colts – 9-7
Tennessee Titans – 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
I am hedging my bets here as I am not sure what to make of Peyton Manning’s injury at this time. If he misses only a couple of weeks, I can still see the Colts making a run at the division or at least a wild-card spot. If Manning cannot return soon, the Colts could slip to below .500 for the first time since 2001. The Texans once again look like the team ready to make the jump into contender status but until they actually do it we have to remain skeptical. Manning’s injury could be just the opening Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson need to win their first division title in franchise history. Tennessee and Jacksonville both begin rebuilding jobs with rookie QBs waiting in the wings to take over their respective offenses. Of the two, Tennessee should be more competitive with veteran Matt Hasselbeck at the helm after the Jaguars cut their veteran starter, David Garrard, just this week.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs – 8-8
Oakland Raiders – 7-9
Denver Broncos – 5-11
The Chargers should return to their spot atop the AFC West and could be right back in the thick of things for the AFC crown if they can correct their special teams miscues and lethargical starts to the season, both very correctable. The Chiefs, meanwhile, could actually be better than they were last year but end up with a lesser record. With an improving, young roster, this is the year they must decide whether Matt Cassel is the right QB for the job. Oakland will likewise take a step back this season after losing a number of key contributors to their 8-8 campaign last year but I continue to like the direction they are heading. Denver could have one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league on defense, which can win some games by itself, but there isn’t a whole lot to like about that offense.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles – 11-5
Dallas Cowboys – 10-6
New York Giants – 9-7
Washington Redskins – 5-11
I can’t decide whether this or the NFC North is the best division in football this year. Green Bay is the best team on paper, Washington is the worst, but the top three of the East, overall, are slightly better than top three in the North. You’re probably saying “Who cares” and you’re right. It should be interesting to see how the Eagles offseason acquisitions mesh in Philadelphia, how Tony Romo returns from his injury and how the Giants adjust to a slew of injuries to their defense this preseason. One thing this division does not lack is entertainment.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers – 11-5
Minnesota Vikings – 9-7
Chicago Bears – 7-9
Detroit Lions – 7-9
Not much more needs to be said about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but boy do I want to put the Vikings in the playoffs as my sleeper team. I think they will be competitive, as will the Bears and Lions, but all three don’t quite stack up with the NFC elite.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 12-4
Atlanta Falcons – 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers– 7-9
Carolina Panthers – 4-12
The Saints are probably the one true contender being least talked about this offseason and I am not sure why. With Sean Payton and Drew Brees controlling the offense they are going to be a force and rookie RB Mark Ingram could have a tremendous impact. Speaking of rookie impacts, Julio Jones is expected to have one in Atlanta as a compliment to Roddy White at receiver. There are no more excuses for Matty Ice as it is time to take the next step on the quarterback latter (something that I question if he has it in him). Tampa Bay, much like the Chiefs, could actually be better than they were last year but finish with a worse record but like the Chiefs you have to like their young, improving roster. Carolina will bring up the cellar in this division as they take their lumps while Cam Newton learns on the job.
NFC West
St. Louis Rams – 9-7
Arizona Cardinals – 8-8
San Francisco 49ers – 6-10
Seattle Seahawks – 5-11
Don’t think anyone could argue with you if you picked any one of these teams to win the NFC West. On second thought, Tavaris Jackson is the starting quarterback in Seattle so that automatically relegates the Seahawks to the basement. While I think Matt Ryan has reached his potential as a starting QB, we are only beginning to see what Sam Bradford can do. I expect the Cards and Rams to battle for divisional supremacy with Bradford and the Rams ultimately getting the job done. As for the Niners, the good news is they have a real coach in Jim Harbaugh now…the bad news is that Alex Smith is still their starting QB.
Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers (Yes, I picked him last year. I meant to say Super Bowl MVP)
Offensive Player of the Year – Philip Rivers
Defensive Player of the Year – Darrelle Revis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Mark Ingram
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Von Miller
Coach of the Year – Gary Kubiak
Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore, New York over Houston
Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis
Pittsburgh over New York, New England over San Diego
New Orleans over Atlanta, Philadelphia over Green Bay
New England over Pittsburgh, New Orleans over Philadelphia
Super Bowl XLVI
New England over New Orleans
If you recall my pre-preseason power rankings for the NFL, really not a lot has changed in the pecking order. Green Bay still has the most loaded roster with New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta hot on their trail in the NFC. New England and Pittsburgh continue to look like the class of the AFC with the Chargers, Jets and Ravens looming in the background. Dallas, Houston and the rest of the NFC North continue to be darkhorses as teams who could jump from last to first. The only real change, and it’s not really a change, is the continued uncertainty about Peyton Manning’s health. If Manning plays 16 games, it is as sure as the Pirates will have a losing season that the Colts will be in the playoffs. Without Manning for part or even all of the season, the AFC South just got a whole lot more interesting.
To steal last season’s opening remarks because frankly, I don’t think I can write it any better: The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with what might be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. I know the anticipation for the NFL season is always unbelievably high as people are eager to start their fantasy seasons, their suicide pools and to root for their favorite teams. Before the season kicks off, however, it’s time to get my almighty predictions on the record. The pre-preseason power rankings probably gave some indication of who I like, but we all know how little it takes for a team’s fortunes to change. So here we go, a quick division by division look at how I see the 2011 NFL season playing out.
AFC East
New England Patriots – 12-4
New York Jets – 10-6
Miami Dolphins – 6-10
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
The Patriots added some veteran star-power to an already star-laden line-up. Tom Brady is probably entering the end of his prime and realizes that he will not have a whole lot more opportunities to win another Super Bowl. The Jets will once again have a tremendous team held back by a below-average quarterback and the Dolphins and Bills may improve some but not enough to gain ground on the Jets and Pats.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4
Baltimore Ravens – 10-6
Cleveland Browns – 6-10
Cincinnati Bengals – 3-13
Funny how much can change in one year. Last year at this time we were discussing how the Steelers could survive the first four games without Ben Roethlisberger and a year later we are nitpicking their weaknesses after appearing in their second Super Bowl in three years. The defense should once again be the best in football and Roethlisberger looks better than ever and has a full complement of weapons to distribute the ball to. Baltimore, meanwhile, saw some turnover on its roster during the offseason. One of the moves I liked best was bringing in Lee Evans from Buffalo to stretch the field. The Week One battle should give one of these teams a big leg up in the division. I also like the direction that Cleveland is heading in and they are hopeful for another step forward from QB Colt McCoy. Cincinnati, meanwhile, begins a rebuilding job with rookies Andy Dalton as their franchise QB and AJ Green as his primary weapon.
AFC South
Houston Texans – 10-6
Indianapolis Colts – 9-7
Tennessee Titans – 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
I am hedging my bets here as I am not sure what to make of Peyton Manning’s injury at this time. If he misses only a couple of weeks, I can still see the Colts making a run at the division or at least a wild-card spot. If Manning cannot return soon, the Colts could slip to below .500 for the first time since 2001. The Texans once again look like the team ready to make the jump into contender status but until they actually do it we have to remain skeptical. Manning’s injury could be just the opening Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson need to win their first division title in franchise history. Tennessee and Jacksonville both begin rebuilding jobs with rookie QBs waiting in the wings to take over their respective offenses. Of the two, Tennessee should be more competitive with veteran Matt Hasselbeck at the helm after the Jaguars cut their veteran starter, David Garrard, just this week.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs – 8-8
Oakland Raiders – 7-9
Denver Broncos – 5-11
The Chargers should return to their spot atop the AFC West and could be right back in the thick of things for the AFC crown if they can correct their special teams miscues and lethargical starts to the season, both very correctable. The Chiefs, meanwhile, could actually be better than they were last year but end up with a lesser record. With an improving, young roster, this is the year they must decide whether Matt Cassel is the right QB for the job. Oakland will likewise take a step back this season after losing a number of key contributors to their 8-8 campaign last year but I continue to like the direction they are heading. Denver could have one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league on defense, which can win some games by itself, but there isn’t a whole lot to like about that offense.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles – 11-5
Dallas Cowboys – 10-6
New York Giants – 9-7
Washington Redskins – 5-11
I can’t decide whether this or the NFC North is the best division in football this year. Green Bay is the best team on paper, Washington is the worst, but the top three of the East, overall, are slightly better than top three in the North. You’re probably saying “Who cares” and you’re right. It should be interesting to see how the Eagles offseason acquisitions mesh in Philadelphia, how Tony Romo returns from his injury and how the Giants adjust to a slew of injuries to their defense this preseason. One thing this division does not lack is entertainment.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers – 11-5
Minnesota Vikings – 9-7
Chicago Bears – 7-9
Detroit Lions – 7-9
Not much more needs to be said about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but boy do I want to put the Vikings in the playoffs as my sleeper team. I think they will be competitive, as will the Bears and Lions, but all three don’t quite stack up with the NFC elite.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 12-4
Atlanta Falcons – 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers– 7-9
Carolina Panthers – 4-12
The Saints are probably the one true contender being least talked about this offseason and I am not sure why. With Sean Payton and Drew Brees controlling the offense they are going to be a force and rookie RB Mark Ingram could have a tremendous impact. Speaking of rookie impacts, Julio Jones is expected to have one in Atlanta as a compliment to Roddy White at receiver. There are no more excuses for Matty Ice as it is time to take the next step on the quarterback latter (something that I question if he has it in him). Tampa Bay, much like the Chiefs, could actually be better than they were last year but finish with a worse record but like the Chiefs you have to like their young, improving roster. Carolina will bring up the cellar in this division as they take their lumps while Cam Newton learns on the job.
NFC West
St. Louis Rams – 9-7
Arizona Cardinals – 8-8
San Francisco 49ers – 6-10
Seattle Seahawks – 5-11
Don’t think anyone could argue with you if you picked any one of these teams to win the NFC West. On second thought, Tavaris Jackson is the starting quarterback in Seattle so that automatically relegates the Seahawks to the basement. While I think Matt Ryan has reached his potential as a starting QB, we are only beginning to see what Sam Bradford can do. I expect the Cards and Rams to battle for divisional supremacy with Bradford and the Rams ultimately getting the job done. As for the Niners, the good news is they have a real coach in Jim Harbaugh now…the bad news is that Alex Smith is still their starting QB.
Regular Season Awards
MVP – Aaron Rodgers (Yes, I picked him last year. I meant to say Super Bowl MVP)
Offensive Player of the Year – Philip Rivers
Defensive Player of the Year – Darrelle Revis
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Mark Ingram
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Von Miller
Coach of the Year – Gary Kubiak
Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore, New York over Houston
Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis
Pittsburgh over New York, New England over San Diego
New Orleans over Atlanta, Philadelphia over Green Bay
New England over Pittsburgh, New Orleans over Philadelphia
Super Bowl XLVI
New England over New Orleans
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Pre-Pre-Season Power Rankings
With the free agent frenzy that went on after the new NFL year began it was impossible to keep up real time with the activity. Instead of wrapping up all of the action in a long post, and I am sure there is still plenty to come with roughly 200 players still on the market, let’s do this year’s first edition of the Power Rankings with a special emphasis on the offseason moves. We’ll call this the Pre-Pre-Season Power Rankings!
1. Green Bay – The Packers did not make many moves this offseason and why would they. The Pack were easily the best team in the playoffs last year and not only do they bring almost the entire team back, they bring some very valuable pieces off the injured list to add to an already stacked roster. Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are going to make defending Aaron Rodgers that much tougher!
2. New England – I absolutely loved the Patriots bringing in Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Low-risk, high-reward moves that could make the Pats downright scary if they work out. Haynesworth, in particular, should have plenty left in the tank and Bill Belichick will probably bring out the best in him while Ochocinco could thrive in an offense where Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around.
3. Pittsburgh – The offensive line is still a question mark but aren’t we sick of saying that? Roethlisberger is going to get the job done regardless of who is in front of him. Pittsburgh’s defense is still easily the league’s top unit and if everyone can stay healthy the Steelers will be knocking on the door like usual.
4. Philadelphia – Ahhh, the offseason darlings. I loved every move the Eagles made and in particular bringing in Vince Young to back-up Michael Vick, who will get hurt at some point. I have been championing that move for a while now on both accounts. Philly still has some question marks on the o-line and in the linebacking corps but in the NFL these days everyone has question marks. I love Michael Vick as a player and have often said he could be my QB anytime as he is going to win ballgames, but he is the sole reason I have Philadelphia fourth. Despite my appreciation for him, I still question Vick’s ability to stay healthy and his ability to win three straight games in the playoffs where you are going to be forced to win at least one game with your arm.
5. Indianapolis – The sleeping giant! The Colts weren’t busy this offseason but they get all of their injured offensive players back. Put a healthy team around Manning and this team could easily gain home-field advantage in the playoffs where nobody wants to play the Colts on that turf.
6. New York Jets – Similar to Philadelphia, the Jets had a very active couple of days in free agency culminating with a resigning of Santonio Holmes and the addition of Plaxico Burress. Mark Sanchez needs all the help he can get because he is still the reason this team trails the other AFC contenders when it comes to Super Bowl chances.
7. New Orleans – Love the Mark Ingram draft pick who gives the Saints a true RB that they can pound inside and catch the ball out of the backfield and the addition of Darren Sproles should help offset the loss of Reggie Bush. Sean Payton is the league’s best offensive coach and I expect another lethal attack in ‘Nawlins. The defense should be improved and if I had to guess right now, the Saints could be the Packers biggest obstacle to the Super Bowl and not the Eagles.
8. Atlanta – The Falcons added Julio Jones in the draft to compliment Roddy White and brought in Ray Edwards to get after the quarterback. The Falcons have proven they can do it in the regular season but now need Matt Ryan to take another step forward if they are going to do it in the playoffs.
9. Baltimore – Stingy defense, Ray Rice, another year of development for Joe Flacco and the Ravens should be right where they always are and that’s just a step below the AFC elite. I did like the signing of Vonta Leach to be a lead blocker for Rice and new back-up Ricky Williams who is as good as any backup RB in the league.
10. Dallas – Nobody is talking about Dallas these days and that might be a good thing for a team that has been overhyped the past few years. Don’t be fooled, however, as the Cowboys still have a roster loaded with talent and with the ouster of Wade Phillips as coach maybe they can regain some of their lost swagger. The key to their season will be the play of the offensive line and giving Tony Romo time to get the ball out to their dangerous weapons on the outside.
11. San Diego – Another team that was severely disappointing last year but remains extremely talented. I expect last year to be more of a blip than a downward spiral for both the Cowboys and Chargers. Philip Rivers should carry this team back to their normal place atop the AFC West standings.
12. New York Giants – I guess we will call this part of the rankings the 2010 underachievers as big things were expected from numbers 10-12 and all fell short of expectations. The biggest signing the G-Men made was retaining RB Ahmad Bradshaw, part of a pretty strong tandem with Brandon Jacobs. The Giants need improved secondary play and more consistent play from Eli Manning to return to the playoffs.
13. Chicago Bears – The NFC North is the best division in football and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bears, Vikings or Lions finish second behind Green Bay. For now let’s give the edge to the Bears who are fresh off a NFC Championship game appearance and will be in their second year under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Bears brought in Roy Williams to give Jay Cutler another weapon and are expected to use Devin Hester even more on offense.
14. St. Louis – Somebody has to win the NFC West right? The Rams are poised to be this year’s breakout team with Sam Bradford now having a year under his belt. I expect a tremendous improvement from the young star and continued improvement from the young defense. I thought the Rams should have brought in more help around Bradford but they are hoping that Mike Sims-Walker can be that go-to wide receiver.
15. Houston – The Texans tried to shore up their atrocious secondary by signing cornerback Johnathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning (two guys who don’t know how to spell their own first names by the way). Anything would be an improvement on last year’s secondary but Joseph could be the impact corner this team needs. We know Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and company are going to put up points but you have to stop somebody to win.
16. Minnesota – I know that I am mostly on my own with this one but I kind of like this Vikings team with the addition of Donovan McNabb. I thought they should have done more to keep Sidney Rice on board but this team’s biggest problem last year was turnovers and that is something that McNabb should help. The Vikings still have a lot of veteran talent and are only one year removed from their near miss of a Super Bowl appearance. A whole lot of Adrian Peterson and less turnovers could have this team right back on the cusp of the playoffs.
17. Kansas City – The next two teams were the surprise teams of 2010 and are poised to take a step back. I love Kansas City’s young defense, however, and expect the unit to continue to get better. I don’t love Matt Cassel but the Chiefs are doing their best to surround him with as much talent as possible after drafting Jonathan Baldwin of Pitt and signing Steve Breaston as a free agent (that or they love Pittsburgh kids at WR).
18. Tampa Bay – Love me some Josh Freeman. Seriously, the young QB reminds me a ton of Ben Roethlisberger albeit with a little less natural ability. The Bucs weren’t active in the free agent market despite having a ton of cap room to work with but did do a good job resigning their own free agents. It will be Freeman’s development, however, and how the team deals with last year’s progress that will be the keys to the Bucs season.
19. Detroit – It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Lions in the playoffs and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them finish 4-12 in the brutal NFC North. The key will be Matt Stafford’s health and a major improvement in the secondary. Stafford has shown flashes of elite talent but hasn’t shown the durability or consistency to prove he can lead a team. The Lions signed a pair of free-agent RBs in Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison to replace the rookie RB Mikel Leshoure who has already been lost for the season and signed Eric Wright and Erik Coleman to help upgrade the secondary. The defensive line is dominant but can the back seven hold up its end?
20. Jacksonville – The Jaguars did their best to upgrade a defensive unit that was downright terrible last year with the signings Paul Posluszny and Clint Session (is it me or is there an absolute ton of Pittsburgh connections occurring!) at linebacker and Drew Coleman and Dawan Landry in the secondary. The additions will help but will it be enough? Offensively the team will rely on David Garrard and MJD again after surrendering their second round pick to move up to draft QB Blaine Gabbert.
21. Miami – The Dolphins were another active team in the free agent market but were not able to acquire a QB to compete with or take the place of Chad Henne. Reggie Bush is explosive and the Dolphins went all offense in the draft but none of that will matter unless Henne’s play greatly improves.
22. Arizona – The Cardinals made the move to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Eagles a year too late. The Cards were the most talented team in the division last year but failed to win the division because of awful quarterback play. Now the Rams have probably passed them by and the 49ers and Seahawks aren’t far behind, if they are even behind at all.
23. San Francisco – The 49ers, likewise, were done in by poor quarterback play last year but decided to get rid of the coach and keep the QB. Jim Harbaugh seems like an excellent coach but I doubt even he will be able to get very far with Alex Smith in control of the offense. I don’t think Smith is terrible, but he is more of a good back-up than starter. The 49ers did sign some big names such as Braylon Edwards, Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner but there are still significant holes on this team.
24. Seattle – To be brutally honest, the entire NFC West left me scratching my head this offseason. The division is there for the taking this year and yet no team made a significant splash to upgrade their roster. Seattle did a great job in bringing in Sidney Rice and Zach Miller as offensive weapons but have pretty much no one to get them the ball. What’s worse is that Matt Leinart thought it was a better career move to stay a back-up in Houston rather than compete with Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst in Seattle….huh?
25. Tennessee – I have a buddy who is pretty high on Tennessee as they bring back a handful of injured players from last year. I’m not so high as I thought much of the Titans past success was brought by the stability and leadership of Jeff Fisher. The task of rebuilding is now left to Mike Munchak. Munchak drafted Jake Locker to be his QB of the future and brought in Matt Hasselbeck to be his QB of now. The biggest news of the offseason though is the holdout of RB Chris Johnson. Even with Johnson, I think this team struggles to approach .500.
26. Oakland – The Raiders were surprisingly quiet during the short free agent period and I guess that had as much to do with their being over the salary cap than anything else. The team showed marked improvement last year under former head coach Tom Cable and it is now left to Hue Jackson to continue that improvement. I think the Raiders take a step back this year before moving forward again.
27. Denver – Denver would have been lower on this list had they traded quarterback Kyle Orton as it was rumored they were trying to. The Broncos simply aren’t very talented and that will only lead to more Tebow controversy as the season progresses.
28. Carolina – Carolina made its splash in the draft by selecting Cam Newton #1 overall and all signs point to the Heisman winner being behind center from day one. Carolina also spent a ton of money on their own players despite their 2-14 record a year ago. Expect to see Newton handing the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart a ton this year as the Panthers go through growing pains with the young QB.
29. Cleveland – As with many of the bottom-tier teams, Cleveland’s hope depends on the development of a young quarterback in Colt McCoy. The Browns brought in very little help for the young QB besides 2nd round draft pick Greg Little and with the Steelers and Ravens in the division it could be a long season. The good news is that the Browns might not be the worst team in their own state!
30. Washington – The Redskins focused most of their efforts this offseason on improving the defense while resigning the feared passing combo of Rex Grossman and Santana Moss. I wonder if Mike Shanahan wishes he stayed retired at this point.
31. Buffalo – The Bills signed Brad Smith, Nick Barnett, Buster Davis and Tyler Thigpen this offseason. That sounds more like a boy band than a football team.
32. Cincinnati – I do like the Bengals bringing in Nate Clements and Bruce Gradkowski (another Pittsburgh connection!) but let’s face it, this team is going to have a rough transition from the Carson Palmer era. They do have some nice young talent but it could be a couple of years before they are back to competing.
1. Green Bay – The Packers did not make many moves this offseason and why would they. The Pack were easily the best team in the playoffs last year and not only do they bring almost the entire team back, they bring some very valuable pieces off the injured list to add to an already stacked roster. Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are going to make defending Aaron Rodgers that much tougher!
2. New England – I absolutely loved the Patriots bringing in Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Low-risk, high-reward moves that could make the Pats downright scary if they work out. Haynesworth, in particular, should have plenty left in the tank and Bill Belichick will probably bring out the best in him while Ochocinco could thrive in an offense where Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around.
3. Pittsburgh – The offensive line is still a question mark but aren’t we sick of saying that? Roethlisberger is going to get the job done regardless of who is in front of him. Pittsburgh’s defense is still easily the league’s top unit and if everyone can stay healthy the Steelers will be knocking on the door like usual.
4. Philadelphia – Ahhh, the offseason darlings. I loved every move the Eagles made and in particular bringing in Vince Young to back-up Michael Vick, who will get hurt at some point. I have been championing that move for a while now on both accounts. Philly still has some question marks on the o-line and in the linebacking corps but in the NFL these days everyone has question marks. I love Michael Vick as a player and have often said he could be my QB anytime as he is going to win ballgames, but he is the sole reason I have Philadelphia fourth. Despite my appreciation for him, I still question Vick’s ability to stay healthy and his ability to win three straight games in the playoffs where you are going to be forced to win at least one game with your arm.
5. Indianapolis – The sleeping giant! The Colts weren’t busy this offseason but they get all of their injured offensive players back. Put a healthy team around Manning and this team could easily gain home-field advantage in the playoffs where nobody wants to play the Colts on that turf.
6. New York Jets – Similar to Philadelphia, the Jets had a very active couple of days in free agency culminating with a resigning of Santonio Holmes and the addition of Plaxico Burress. Mark Sanchez needs all the help he can get because he is still the reason this team trails the other AFC contenders when it comes to Super Bowl chances.
7. New Orleans – Love the Mark Ingram draft pick who gives the Saints a true RB that they can pound inside and catch the ball out of the backfield and the addition of Darren Sproles should help offset the loss of Reggie Bush. Sean Payton is the league’s best offensive coach and I expect another lethal attack in ‘Nawlins. The defense should be improved and if I had to guess right now, the Saints could be the Packers biggest obstacle to the Super Bowl and not the Eagles.
8. Atlanta – The Falcons added Julio Jones in the draft to compliment Roddy White and brought in Ray Edwards to get after the quarterback. The Falcons have proven they can do it in the regular season but now need Matt Ryan to take another step forward if they are going to do it in the playoffs.
9. Baltimore – Stingy defense, Ray Rice, another year of development for Joe Flacco and the Ravens should be right where they always are and that’s just a step below the AFC elite. I did like the signing of Vonta Leach to be a lead blocker for Rice and new back-up Ricky Williams who is as good as any backup RB in the league.
10. Dallas – Nobody is talking about Dallas these days and that might be a good thing for a team that has been overhyped the past few years. Don’t be fooled, however, as the Cowboys still have a roster loaded with talent and with the ouster of Wade Phillips as coach maybe they can regain some of their lost swagger. The key to their season will be the play of the offensive line and giving Tony Romo time to get the ball out to their dangerous weapons on the outside.
11. San Diego – Another team that was severely disappointing last year but remains extremely talented. I expect last year to be more of a blip than a downward spiral for both the Cowboys and Chargers. Philip Rivers should carry this team back to their normal place atop the AFC West standings.
12. New York Giants – I guess we will call this part of the rankings the 2010 underachievers as big things were expected from numbers 10-12 and all fell short of expectations. The biggest signing the G-Men made was retaining RB Ahmad Bradshaw, part of a pretty strong tandem with Brandon Jacobs. The Giants need improved secondary play and more consistent play from Eli Manning to return to the playoffs.
13. Chicago Bears – The NFC North is the best division in football and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bears, Vikings or Lions finish second behind Green Bay. For now let’s give the edge to the Bears who are fresh off a NFC Championship game appearance and will be in their second year under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Bears brought in Roy Williams to give Jay Cutler another weapon and are expected to use Devin Hester even more on offense.
14. St. Louis – Somebody has to win the NFC West right? The Rams are poised to be this year’s breakout team with Sam Bradford now having a year under his belt. I expect a tremendous improvement from the young star and continued improvement from the young defense. I thought the Rams should have brought in more help around Bradford but they are hoping that Mike Sims-Walker can be that go-to wide receiver.
15. Houston – The Texans tried to shore up their atrocious secondary by signing cornerback Johnathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning (two guys who don’t know how to spell their own first names by the way). Anything would be an improvement on last year’s secondary but Joseph could be the impact corner this team needs. We know Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and company are going to put up points but you have to stop somebody to win.
16. Minnesota – I know that I am mostly on my own with this one but I kind of like this Vikings team with the addition of Donovan McNabb. I thought they should have done more to keep Sidney Rice on board but this team’s biggest problem last year was turnovers and that is something that McNabb should help. The Vikings still have a lot of veteran talent and are only one year removed from their near miss of a Super Bowl appearance. A whole lot of Adrian Peterson and less turnovers could have this team right back on the cusp of the playoffs.
17. Kansas City – The next two teams were the surprise teams of 2010 and are poised to take a step back. I love Kansas City’s young defense, however, and expect the unit to continue to get better. I don’t love Matt Cassel but the Chiefs are doing their best to surround him with as much talent as possible after drafting Jonathan Baldwin of Pitt and signing Steve Breaston as a free agent (that or they love Pittsburgh kids at WR).
18. Tampa Bay – Love me some Josh Freeman. Seriously, the young QB reminds me a ton of Ben Roethlisberger albeit with a little less natural ability. The Bucs weren’t active in the free agent market despite having a ton of cap room to work with but did do a good job resigning their own free agents. It will be Freeman’s development, however, and how the team deals with last year’s progress that will be the keys to the Bucs season.
19. Detroit – It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Lions in the playoffs and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them finish 4-12 in the brutal NFC North. The key will be Matt Stafford’s health and a major improvement in the secondary. Stafford has shown flashes of elite talent but hasn’t shown the durability or consistency to prove he can lead a team. The Lions signed a pair of free-agent RBs in Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison to replace the rookie RB Mikel Leshoure who has already been lost for the season and signed Eric Wright and Erik Coleman to help upgrade the secondary. The defensive line is dominant but can the back seven hold up its end?
20. Jacksonville – The Jaguars did their best to upgrade a defensive unit that was downright terrible last year with the signings Paul Posluszny and Clint Session (is it me or is there an absolute ton of Pittsburgh connections occurring!) at linebacker and Drew Coleman and Dawan Landry in the secondary. The additions will help but will it be enough? Offensively the team will rely on David Garrard and MJD again after surrendering their second round pick to move up to draft QB Blaine Gabbert.
21. Miami – The Dolphins were another active team in the free agent market but were not able to acquire a QB to compete with or take the place of Chad Henne. Reggie Bush is explosive and the Dolphins went all offense in the draft but none of that will matter unless Henne’s play greatly improves.
22. Arizona – The Cardinals made the move to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Eagles a year too late. The Cards were the most talented team in the division last year but failed to win the division because of awful quarterback play. Now the Rams have probably passed them by and the 49ers and Seahawks aren’t far behind, if they are even behind at all.
23. San Francisco – The 49ers, likewise, were done in by poor quarterback play last year but decided to get rid of the coach and keep the QB. Jim Harbaugh seems like an excellent coach but I doubt even he will be able to get very far with Alex Smith in control of the offense. I don’t think Smith is terrible, but he is more of a good back-up than starter. The 49ers did sign some big names such as Braylon Edwards, Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner but there are still significant holes on this team.
24. Seattle – To be brutally honest, the entire NFC West left me scratching my head this offseason. The division is there for the taking this year and yet no team made a significant splash to upgrade their roster. Seattle did a great job in bringing in Sidney Rice and Zach Miller as offensive weapons but have pretty much no one to get them the ball. What’s worse is that Matt Leinart thought it was a better career move to stay a back-up in Houston rather than compete with Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst in Seattle….huh?
25. Tennessee – I have a buddy who is pretty high on Tennessee as they bring back a handful of injured players from last year. I’m not so high as I thought much of the Titans past success was brought by the stability and leadership of Jeff Fisher. The task of rebuilding is now left to Mike Munchak. Munchak drafted Jake Locker to be his QB of the future and brought in Matt Hasselbeck to be his QB of now. The biggest news of the offseason though is the holdout of RB Chris Johnson. Even with Johnson, I think this team struggles to approach .500.
26. Oakland – The Raiders were surprisingly quiet during the short free agent period and I guess that had as much to do with their being over the salary cap than anything else. The team showed marked improvement last year under former head coach Tom Cable and it is now left to Hue Jackson to continue that improvement. I think the Raiders take a step back this year before moving forward again.
27. Denver – Denver would have been lower on this list had they traded quarterback Kyle Orton as it was rumored they were trying to. The Broncos simply aren’t very talented and that will only lead to more Tebow controversy as the season progresses.
28. Carolina – Carolina made its splash in the draft by selecting Cam Newton #1 overall and all signs point to the Heisman winner being behind center from day one. Carolina also spent a ton of money on their own players despite their 2-14 record a year ago. Expect to see Newton handing the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart a ton this year as the Panthers go through growing pains with the young QB.
29. Cleveland – As with many of the bottom-tier teams, Cleveland’s hope depends on the development of a young quarterback in Colt McCoy. The Browns brought in very little help for the young QB besides 2nd round draft pick Greg Little and with the Steelers and Ravens in the division it could be a long season. The good news is that the Browns might not be the worst team in their own state!
30. Washington – The Redskins focused most of their efforts this offseason on improving the defense while resigning the feared passing combo of Rex Grossman and Santana Moss. I wonder if Mike Shanahan wishes he stayed retired at this point.
31. Buffalo – The Bills signed Brad Smith, Nick Barnett, Buster Davis and Tyler Thigpen this offseason. That sounds more like a boy band than a football team.
32. Cincinnati – I do like the Bengals bringing in Nate Clements and Bruce Gradkowski (another Pittsburgh connection!) but let’s face it, this team is going to have a rough transition from the Carson Palmer era. They do have some nice young talent but it could be a couple of years before they are back to competing.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Reality Has Set In But Pirates Have Plenty to Play For
The Pirates are now floundering in a seven game losing streak and have lost 9 of 10 overall. It is funny how playing above expectations can simultaneously lead to creating unattainable expectations. The Pirates, who not too long ago held first place in their division, were projected by even the most optimistic fans to win only 70-75 games this season. Through 110 games, the Pirate sit a mediocre 54-56, a record that puts them on pace to win roughly 80 games this year! If you could have said that at the beginning of the season, every Pirates enthusiast would have signed up for that in a heartbeat.
The Pirates ability to play above their heads for 100 games, however, put unreasonable expectations on a team that simply is not all that talented. That 53-47 record through 100 games had Pirates fans dreaming of a division title and actual playoff games at PNC Park. Unfortunately, there was no way the Pirates were going to continue playing that well without some sort of miracle. The Pirates had the run differential of a .500 team and only had that because their starting pitching staff was performing way over their heads. It was only a matter of time before the team came crashing back to earth and we all should have recognized that at the time.
Instead, we decided to suspend reality and believe that these Buccos could continue winning one-run games, that Kevin Correia and the rest of the Pirates starters would continue pitching at a level they never have before, that the returns of Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, and Jose Tabata would boost the line-up and that trading for Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick would improve upon their zero production predecessors. Well, I guess the last two statements are true but when your line-up was as dreadful as this team’s was marginal improvements simply aren’t enough.
I have held from the beginning that even if the mini-miracle continued that the Pirates were still not good enough to win the division without major help from their competitors. Even with everything breaking right, this team was not going to win more than 83 or 84 games. For that to win the division, the Pirates would need major help. Who knows, the Pirates may get out of this funk and go on to win that many games but the Brewers have now made it look impossible that merely 83 or 84 wins would take the division. That’s the point I want to make today.
It is not time to get down on these Pirates, who have already accomplished more this year than anyone could have imagined. Instead, it is time to set more realistic goals for this team, most notably breaking the 18 season losing streak the team has endured. Let’s root for Neal Huntington and his staff to continue building toward real contender status over the next couple of years. Reality has set in, but that does not mean the season needs to be a waste. The Pirates have plenty to play for and a future that looks a whole lot better than before this season started.
The Pirates ability to play above their heads for 100 games, however, put unreasonable expectations on a team that simply is not all that talented. That 53-47 record through 100 games had Pirates fans dreaming of a division title and actual playoff games at PNC Park. Unfortunately, there was no way the Pirates were going to continue playing that well without some sort of miracle. The Pirates had the run differential of a .500 team and only had that because their starting pitching staff was performing way over their heads. It was only a matter of time before the team came crashing back to earth and we all should have recognized that at the time.
Instead, we decided to suspend reality and believe that these Buccos could continue winning one-run games, that Kevin Correia and the rest of the Pirates starters would continue pitching at a level they never have before, that the returns of Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, and Jose Tabata would boost the line-up and that trading for Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick would improve upon their zero production predecessors. Well, I guess the last two statements are true but when your line-up was as dreadful as this team’s was marginal improvements simply aren’t enough.
I have held from the beginning that even if the mini-miracle continued that the Pirates were still not good enough to win the division without major help from their competitors. Even with everything breaking right, this team was not going to win more than 83 or 84 games. For that to win the division, the Pirates would need major help. Who knows, the Pirates may get out of this funk and go on to win that many games but the Brewers have now made it look impossible that merely 83 or 84 wins would take the division. That’s the point I want to make today.
It is not time to get down on these Pirates, who have already accomplished more this year than anyone could have imagined. Instead, it is time to set more realistic goals for this team, most notably breaking the 18 season losing streak the team has endured. Let’s root for Neal Huntington and his staff to continue building toward real contender status over the next couple of years. Reality has set in, but that does not mean the season needs to be a waste. The Pirates have plenty to play for and a future that looks a whole lot better than before this season started.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Trading Season Has Begun; Good Day for Buccos Despite Inactivity
The baseball trading has begun and if you are a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, today was a good day. Carlos Beltran was traded to the San Francisco Giants despite being linked with the Milwaukee Brewers, among other teams, and the Cardinals made the first ever “go for it” trade that made their team worse now, and in the future.
The first trade of the day was a three-teamer between the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. Let’s just say the American League teams did fine in this one. Toronto received Colby Rasmus, the 24-year-old outfielder that is easily the best asset in the deal, from the Cards and utility man Mark Teahen from the White Sox as well as three no-name pitchers. For Rasmus, the Cardinals received right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and outfielder Corey Patterson as well as two relievers and some other considerations such as cash and three players to be named later. The White Sox ended up with reliever Jason Frasor and pitching prospect Zach Stewart.
Rasmus was clearly the best player in this trade but for whatever reason was unable to get along with Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa and his coaching staff and they felt the need to move him. Not only is Rasmus a pretty decent player already, his skills and young age have had scouts and baseball insiders drooling over him for years. Fans of other National League Central teams have to be extremely happy about his departure, and the fact that he could be replaced with Corey Patterson! Edwin Jackson is a hard-throwing righty with a no-hitter during his time with the Diamondbacks but his career ERA of 4.53 and extremely high walk rate aren’t sending fear through the NL Central.
Toronto’s incentive in the trade was clearly acquiring the young Rasmus and the potential he possesses. The Blue Jays have done a tremendous job acquiring assets in recent years - it’s just a shame they have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox, meanwhile, pick up a good bullpen arm and a pretty good pitching prospect in Stewart while saving some money in the meantime.
The other trade that has either gone down or soon will go down is Carlos Beltran heading west to the San Francisco Giants for some kind of package that includes pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. As part of the trade the Mets are reported to be picking up $4 million of the remaining $6.5 million owed to Beltran, with this being the final year of his contract. Beltran is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Giants who have been desperate for a middle of the order bat since Buster Posey’s injury. The Giants have plenty of pitching and giving up a prospect, grant it a darn-good one, is well worth the gamble for a team trying to win back-to-back World Series titles. The Mets were willing to eat much of the money owed to Beltran in order to pick up a premium prospect in a trade and they couldn’t have done much better than Wheeler who is ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball according to Keith Law’s latest rankings. The trade is a win for both teams as the Giants add a big piece to their title defense while the Mets pick up a legitimate starting pitching prospect for the future for a player they were likely to lose at the end of the season.
The first trade of the day was a three-teamer between the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. Let’s just say the American League teams did fine in this one. Toronto received Colby Rasmus, the 24-year-old outfielder that is easily the best asset in the deal, from the Cards and utility man Mark Teahen from the White Sox as well as three no-name pitchers. For Rasmus, the Cardinals received right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and outfielder Corey Patterson as well as two relievers and some other considerations such as cash and three players to be named later. The White Sox ended up with reliever Jason Frasor and pitching prospect Zach Stewart.
Rasmus was clearly the best player in this trade but for whatever reason was unable to get along with Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa and his coaching staff and they felt the need to move him. Not only is Rasmus a pretty decent player already, his skills and young age have had scouts and baseball insiders drooling over him for years. Fans of other National League Central teams have to be extremely happy about his departure, and the fact that he could be replaced with Corey Patterson! Edwin Jackson is a hard-throwing righty with a no-hitter during his time with the Diamondbacks but his career ERA of 4.53 and extremely high walk rate aren’t sending fear through the NL Central.
Toronto’s incentive in the trade was clearly acquiring the young Rasmus and the potential he possesses. The Blue Jays have done a tremendous job acquiring assets in recent years - it’s just a shame they have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox, meanwhile, pick up a good bullpen arm and a pretty good pitching prospect in Stewart while saving some money in the meantime.
The other trade that has either gone down or soon will go down is Carlos Beltran heading west to the San Francisco Giants for some kind of package that includes pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. As part of the trade the Mets are reported to be picking up $4 million of the remaining $6.5 million owed to Beltran, with this being the final year of his contract. Beltran is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Giants who have been desperate for a middle of the order bat since Buster Posey’s injury. The Giants have plenty of pitching and giving up a prospect, grant it a darn-good one, is well worth the gamble for a team trying to win back-to-back World Series titles. The Mets were willing to eat much of the money owed to Beltran in order to pick up a premium prospect in a trade and they couldn’t have done much better than Wheeler who is ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball according to Keith Law’s latest rankings. The trade is a win for both teams as the Giants add a big piece to their title defense while the Mets pick up a legitimate starting pitching prospect for the future for a player they were likely to lose at the end of the season.
QB Dominoes Starting to Fall in the NFL
The QB dominoes are starting to fall in the NFL:
It looks as though the Minnesota Vikings are going to land QB Donovan McNabb. Those that are long-time readers of the blog know my respect and appreciation for McNabb but he certainly seemed to have lost something last year in Washington. Can a move to the Twin Cities revitalize his career? It looks like we are about to find out. I like the move on the Vikings behalf as they have enough talent and a veteran laden roster to make another run at the Super Bowl. Intrusting the starting role to a rookie would not have worked, nor gone over well with the veteran roster. If McNabb can be even close to the player he was in Philadelphia, Minnesota will be a tough out in the NFC. I do think the Vikings need to supplement this move by resigning WR Sidney Rice. An offense with Rice, Harvin, Peterson and Shiancoe surrounding McNabb sounds awfully imposing on defenses.
Similar to Minnesota, the Tennessee Titans were looking for a veteran quarterback to lead their offense while their first round draft choice learns from the sidelines. They, too, look like they have found their man in Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is 36-years-old and it looked like he lost some zip on his ball last year in Seattle but he is still a smart quarterback and a good team leader that should help Jake Locker learn and grow for a year. Overall, I’m not a big fan of this signing but it accomplishes the objective for the Titans who are probably on the outside looking in of the loaded AFC playoff bubble anyhow.
It looks as though the Minnesota Vikings are going to land QB Donovan McNabb. Those that are long-time readers of the blog know my respect and appreciation for McNabb but he certainly seemed to have lost something last year in Washington. Can a move to the Twin Cities revitalize his career? It looks like we are about to find out. I like the move on the Vikings behalf as they have enough talent and a veteran laden roster to make another run at the Super Bowl. Intrusting the starting role to a rookie would not have worked, nor gone over well with the veteran roster. If McNabb can be even close to the player he was in Philadelphia, Minnesota will be a tough out in the NFC. I do think the Vikings need to supplement this move by resigning WR Sidney Rice. An offense with Rice, Harvin, Peterson and Shiancoe surrounding McNabb sounds awfully imposing on defenses.
Similar to Minnesota, the Tennessee Titans were looking for a veteran quarterback to lead their offense while their first round draft choice learns from the sidelines. They, too, look like they have found their man in Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is 36-years-old and it looked like he lost some zip on his ball last year in Seattle but he is still a smart quarterback and a good team leader that should help Jake Locker learn and grow for a year. Overall, I’m not a big fan of this signing but it accomplishes the objective for the Titans who are probably on the outside looking in of the loaded AFC playoff bubble anyhow.
Crazy Week in Sports; Steelers Sign Ike
This marks a crazy week in sports as we try to track the rumors and realities of the Major League Baseball trade deadline as well as the free agent frenzy taking place in the NFL. We would need to take a vacation to track all of the wheeling and dealings going on in both leagues right now. With that in mind, instead of writing a long article on what may or may not happen this week around the leagues, I will post short updates and comments as major trades go down in baseball and major signings and/or trades happen in the NFL.
The biggest news to occur so far in Pittsburgh is the Steelers resigning (or more appropriately reaching an agreement) with cornerback Ike Taylor. Taylor is instrumental to the Steelers defense as their top cover corner and was unanimously considered the Steelers top free agent priority. The Steelers are also a perfect fit for Taylor’s physical style and the two sides were both better off being able to work out a deal. With Taylor’s signing in place, the Steelers are poised to have one of, if not the best defense in the NFL once again. The lockout and lack of preparation time should also be an advantage to the Steelers veteran defense who were probably better served by the time off than the lack of minicamps and meetings.
The biggest news to occur so far in Pittsburgh is the Steelers resigning (or more appropriately reaching an agreement) with cornerback Ike Taylor. Taylor is instrumental to the Steelers defense as their top cover corner and was unanimously considered the Steelers top free agent priority. The Steelers are also a perfect fit for Taylor’s physical style and the two sides were both better off being able to work out a deal. With Taylor’s signing in place, the Steelers are poised to have one of, if not the best defense in the NFL once again. The lockout and lack of preparation time should also be an advantage to the Steelers veteran defense who were probably better served by the time off than the lack of minicamps and meetings.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Excitement Real but Pirates Need Alvarez
I was on vacation last week in Myrtle Beach, SC, a popular relaxation destination for many Pittsburghers, where the excitement over the Buccos was everywhere. There are many years when my family takes the voyage down to Myrtle Beach only it usually falls in early June where by then the Pirates have normally been eliminated from contention already. Being there in July, with the Pirates claiming a share of first place, only made it sweeter to see the excitement and hope for Pittsburgh Pirates fans for the first time in what seems like eternity.
With this excitement both in Pittsburgh and from Pirates fans around the country in mind, I decided to take an extended lunch yesterday to check out your first place Buccos in action against the Cincinnati Reds. Besides the general importance of the game and the Pirates looking to complete a sweep, it was an opportunity to see a great pitching match-up in Jeff Karstens, with his 2nd best NL ERA, going up against Johnny Cueto and his would be NL best ERA had he pitched enough innings.
I came away from the game with two thoughts, both already somewhat swirling around in my head but only confirmed further by being in attendance. First, the excitement and enthusiasm for these Buccos is real and hardcore. You got the sense of this from watching on TV during the Boston and Philadelphia series, and even the Cubs and Astros series before the break, but to see a crowd of 25,000+ on a weekday afternoon in full support of these Buccos was fantastic. I have been to many of these early afternoon games in the past when you could count the number of fans in the lower levels of the stadium.
Secondly, the Pirates desperately need Pedro Alvarez back in the line-up. I have no idea why he is still in AAA, we know that the guy can hit minor league pitching, it’s time to bring him back up to the majors, plug him in at third base and in the clean-up spot and see what he can do. No offense to Chase D’Arnaud, he’s young and needs more time to develop, but he has been awful during his time in Pittsburgh. I cannot even fathom why Clint Hurdle continues to bat him in the #2 spot in the order. Hurdle is giving away valuable and critical at-bats in the middle of a pennant race. D’Arnaud single-handedly cost the Buccos the game yesterday with two atrocious errors. He also came to bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and hit a weak fly ball to right on the first pitch in the third and then later flew out to left with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in the seventh inning (this after a failed bunt attempt by Alex Presley, a horrible bunt but an even worse decision to have him bunting there). One game is one game, but D’Arnaud has been terrible his entire time in the big leagues with the exception of a fine defensive play here or there. The 24-year-old shortstop prospect is batting .225 with an OPS of .542. He has 5 extra base hits in 89 at-bats and zero home runs. He also has 7 errors in 21 games played. For the love of Pirates fans, please send this kid back to AAA.
Meanwhile, despite the terrible start Pedro Alvarez got off to this season, he still seems like Babe Ruth compared to the punch and judy hitters the Pirates have been running out there at third base in his absence. Between D’Arnaud mentioned above, Josh Harrison (.576 OPS) and Brandon Wood (.642 OPS) the Pirates third basemen have been another empty spot in a line-up that already has too many deficiencies. Alvarez hit 16 HRs last year in 347 Abs, a pace that would put him in line to be a 30 HR guy despite a tough transition period to the Major Leagues. It is time the Pirates put their faith back in the top prospect they have had since Chad Hermansen and see what the kid can do. We know he can hit AAA pitching where he is hitting .340 with an OPS over .900 in 14 games during his rehab assignment. It is time the Pirates plug him into the #4 spot in a line-up that is dying for an influx of power. Putting Pedro #4 would allow Walker and McCutchen to move up a spot in the order, where they should be anyhow, and give the Pirates a line-up that at least resembles what a Major League line-up should look like.
I am not sure how Alvarez will respond to a recall to the Pirates. His track record tells us that he is a slow-starter which gives me great reason for optimism and I saw enough of the young third-baseman last year to know that at a minimum he is going to hit some home-runs. Whether he develops into a great player will probably depend on his ability to put the ball in play but again, I think we are talking about a guy who is going to hit 30 home runs per season and possibly more. Whether that comes with a .230 batting average or a .270 average will ultimately determine how good of a player he is, but even the poor end of Alvarez’ projected production would be a major upgrade to this Pittsburgh Pirates line-up. It is time the Pirates recall Alvarez and plug him into his normal spot at third. Any hope at a continued run at the division is dependent on it.
With this excitement both in Pittsburgh and from Pirates fans around the country in mind, I decided to take an extended lunch yesterday to check out your first place Buccos in action against the Cincinnati Reds. Besides the general importance of the game and the Pirates looking to complete a sweep, it was an opportunity to see a great pitching match-up in Jeff Karstens, with his 2nd best NL ERA, going up against Johnny Cueto and his would be NL best ERA had he pitched enough innings.
I came away from the game with two thoughts, both already somewhat swirling around in my head but only confirmed further by being in attendance. First, the excitement and enthusiasm for these Buccos is real and hardcore. You got the sense of this from watching on TV during the Boston and Philadelphia series, and even the Cubs and Astros series before the break, but to see a crowd of 25,000+ on a weekday afternoon in full support of these Buccos was fantastic. I have been to many of these early afternoon games in the past when you could count the number of fans in the lower levels of the stadium.
Secondly, the Pirates desperately need Pedro Alvarez back in the line-up. I have no idea why he is still in AAA, we know that the guy can hit minor league pitching, it’s time to bring him back up to the majors, plug him in at third base and in the clean-up spot and see what he can do. No offense to Chase D’Arnaud, he’s young and needs more time to develop, but he has been awful during his time in Pittsburgh. I cannot even fathom why Clint Hurdle continues to bat him in the #2 spot in the order. Hurdle is giving away valuable and critical at-bats in the middle of a pennant race. D’Arnaud single-handedly cost the Buccos the game yesterday with two atrocious errors. He also came to bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and hit a weak fly ball to right on the first pitch in the third and then later flew out to left with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in the seventh inning (this after a failed bunt attempt by Alex Presley, a horrible bunt but an even worse decision to have him bunting there). One game is one game, but D’Arnaud has been terrible his entire time in the big leagues with the exception of a fine defensive play here or there. The 24-year-old shortstop prospect is batting .225 with an OPS of .542. He has 5 extra base hits in 89 at-bats and zero home runs. He also has 7 errors in 21 games played. For the love of Pirates fans, please send this kid back to AAA.
Meanwhile, despite the terrible start Pedro Alvarez got off to this season, he still seems like Babe Ruth compared to the punch and judy hitters the Pirates have been running out there at third base in his absence. Between D’Arnaud mentioned above, Josh Harrison (.576 OPS) and Brandon Wood (.642 OPS) the Pirates third basemen have been another empty spot in a line-up that already has too many deficiencies. Alvarez hit 16 HRs last year in 347 Abs, a pace that would put him in line to be a 30 HR guy despite a tough transition period to the Major Leagues. It is time the Pirates put their faith back in the top prospect they have had since Chad Hermansen and see what the kid can do. We know he can hit AAA pitching where he is hitting .340 with an OPS over .900 in 14 games during his rehab assignment. It is time the Pirates plug him into the #4 spot in a line-up that is dying for an influx of power. Putting Pedro #4 would allow Walker and McCutchen to move up a spot in the order, where they should be anyhow, and give the Pirates a line-up that at least resembles what a Major League line-up should look like.
I am not sure how Alvarez will respond to a recall to the Pirates. His track record tells us that he is a slow-starter which gives me great reason for optimism and I saw enough of the young third-baseman last year to know that at a minimum he is going to hit some home-runs. Whether he develops into a great player will probably depend on his ability to put the ball in play but again, I think we are talking about a guy who is going to hit 30 home runs per season and possibly more. Whether that comes with a .230 batting average or a .270 average will ultimately determine how good of a player he is, but even the poor end of Alvarez’ projected production would be a major upgrade to this Pittsburgh Pirates line-up. It is time the Pirates recall Alvarez and plug him into his normal spot at third. Any hope at a continued run at the division is dependent on it.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Andrew McCutchen, the All-Star
Andrew McCutchen, much like many of the Pirates’ opponents who have hit one in the gap this year, was robbed of his first All-Star appearance. I am not the first to write this and I won’t be the last but I had to comment on the fact that I find it absolutely ridiculous that “Cutch” is not on the NL All-Star roster.
Personally, I think the Pirates center fielder should be starting the game but I was OK with the fact that Matt Kemp, Lance Berkman and Ryan Braun were voted starters. All are having fantastic years and much of the fan voting was done before McCutchen’s recent tear. That being said, McCutchen has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement player) in the National League, trailing only Kemp in that metric. Braun is third, Berkman is tenth…again I think McCutchen should be starting, but the fact that he is not even on the team is beyond comprehension. As Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle said, and I am paraphrasing, “the players screwed up, NL Manager Bruce Bochy screwed up and MLB screwed up”.
The fact that McCutchen is not even on the “final five” list to be voted into the game by the fans is enough to justify firing whoever puts that list together. How is the second best player in the National League not even included on a list of players that includes Ian Kennedy and Michael Morse? Most casual fans don’t even know who those guys play for. (Kennedy is a pitcher for the Diamondbacks and Morse is an outfielder for the Nationals for those that didn’t know.) McCutchen is being talked about nationally as a young, exciting and fantastic player that will soon be mentioned among the top players in baseball for years to come. For MLB to leave him out of this year’s contest does a disservice for baseball fans around the country.
McCutchen’s absence once again merits a closer look at how these teams are constructed. To be honest, the fans actually do the best job. Sure, too many Yankees and Red Sox dominate the voting but for the most part those guys deserve it and the fans get it right. With the exception of Derek Jeter, who is in for the lifetime achievement award, it is hard to find fault with any of the starters for this year’s contest. The players and the respective teams’ managers choose the rest of the rosters and once again there is plenty of room for disagreement. The players have loyalties and frankly don’t care all that much about how other players are performing. Managers have loyalties to their own players, former players and other managers around the league and are often partial to those loyalties. In the end, it is the fans who get cheated by not getting the opportunity to see the best players in the game on the field.
The good news is that ultimately All-Star games and All-Star appearances don’t really matter. Andrew McCutchen is going to make plenty of All-Star appearances in his career beginning next season in all likelihood. If anything, McCutchen’s snub this year may have garnered him more attention nationally than if he were to be on the team, especially if he had been the Pirates’ lone participant. (This is no slight at Joel Hanrahan who absolutely should be on the team as well.) McCutchen is quickly becoming one of the league’s best players and will soon be recognized for it. Who knows, if the Pirates keep playing this well McCutchen could end up on the short list of MVP candidates by season’s end. That would sure make the All-Star game voters feel stupid because Andrew McCutchen is obviously an All-Star.
Personally, I think the Pirates center fielder should be starting the game but I was OK with the fact that Matt Kemp, Lance Berkman and Ryan Braun were voted starters. All are having fantastic years and much of the fan voting was done before McCutchen’s recent tear. That being said, McCutchen has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement player) in the National League, trailing only Kemp in that metric. Braun is third, Berkman is tenth…again I think McCutchen should be starting, but the fact that he is not even on the team is beyond comprehension. As Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle said, and I am paraphrasing, “the players screwed up, NL Manager Bruce Bochy screwed up and MLB screwed up”.
The fact that McCutchen is not even on the “final five” list to be voted into the game by the fans is enough to justify firing whoever puts that list together. How is the second best player in the National League not even included on a list of players that includes Ian Kennedy and Michael Morse? Most casual fans don’t even know who those guys play for. (Kennedy is a pitcher for the Diamondbacks and Morse is an outfielder for the Nationals for those that didn’t know.) McCutchen is being talked about nationally as a young, exciting and fantastic player that will soon be mentioned among the top players in baseball for years to come. For MLB to leave him out of this year’s contest does a disservice for baseball fans around the country.
McCutchen’s absence once again merits a closer look at how these teams are constructed. To be honest, the fans actually do the best job. Sure, too many Yankees and Red Sox dominate the voting but for the most part those guys deserve it and the fans get it right. With the exception of Derek Jeter, who is in for the lifetime achievement award, it is hard to find fault with any of the starters for this year’s contest. The players and the respective teams’ managers choose the rest of the rosters and once again there is plenty of room for disagreement. The players have loyalties and frankly don’t care all that much about how other players are performing. Managers have loyalties to their own players, former players and other managers around the league and are often partial to those loyalties. In the end, it is the fans who get cheated by not getting the opportunity to see the best players in the game on the field.
The good news is that ultimately All-Star games and All-Star appearances don’t really matter. Andrew McCutchen is going to make plenty of All-Star appearances in his career beginning next season in all likelihood. If anything, McCutchen’s snub this year may have garnered him more attention nationally than if he were to be on the team, especially if he had been the Pirates’ lone participant. (This is no slight at Joel Hanrahan who absolutely should be on the team as well.) McCutchen is quickly becoming one of the league’s best players and will soon be recognized for it. Who knows, if the Pirates keep playing this well McCutchen could end up on the short list of MVP candidates by season’s end. That would sure make the All-Star game voters feel stupid because Andrew McCutchen is obviously an All-Star.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Huntington Faces Tough Decisions
As we approach the midpoint of the baseball season and with the trade deadline less than a month away, Pirates management and General Manager Neal Huntington have a very interesting decision on their hands. The Pirates sit at 41-39, only 2 games out of first place in the NL Central and only one game back in the loss column. This is the Pirates best record through 80 games since the 18 year losing streak began and fans are excited. No doubt that the temptation is there for Huntington to make a trade to improve this ballclub and make a run at their first winning season and maybe even an outside shot at contention in nearly two decades.
Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.
It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.
While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.
At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.
As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.
I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.
Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.
It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.
While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.
At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.
As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.
I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
NBA Draft Preview Links
Because we are a little light this week on material and because the NBA Draft is tonight and I would rather not write about such a weak draft class, I leave you with a link to Grantland.com’s (Bill Simmons’ new website) NBA Draft Preview. The contributors did a great job of being both insightful and entertaining regarding tonight’s draft (Warning: It’s long!). For a bonus, I also link to Simmon’s own trade article which I found pretty entertaining as well.
Grantland's NBA Draft Preview
Bill Simmon's Trade Machine Column
Grantland's NBA Draft Preview
Bill Simmon's Trade Machine Column
Friday, June 17, 2011
Terrelle Pryor: Greatest Career that is Considered a Disappointment of All-Time?
On October 25th, 2008 Terrelle Pryor was starting his first marquee college football game for Ohio State at home against undefeated and #3 ranked Penn State. Pryor had played some snaps, and played pretty well actually, in Ohio State’s loss the third game of the season at USC but he was not the starting quarterback for that game. He was inserted as the starting QB the following game and led Ohio State to five straight wins and back up to #10 in the rankings. Despite starting the previous five games, however, this game was the real beginning of what was to be one of the most anticipated and scrutinized careers in college football history and especially in Western Pennsylvania and Ohio.
I remember the date off the top of my head because it was the day of my wedding. A good buddy of mine, who was a groomsman and obviously a Penn State alumnus, wore his Nittany Lions socks under his tuxedo. My father-in-law wore a Penn State jersey under his tux and when it was time for some kind of picture during the reception we couldn’t find him because he was at the hotel bar watching the game. Needless to say, the game was an event. It was Pryor, the local kid, and his 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes taking on the undefeated Lions and Joe Paterno, the school and coach he turned down to join the now infamous Jim Tressel in Columbus.
I had seen enough of Pryor in high school and in the games leading up to the Penn State game to know that he was not only the real deal but that he was one of the greatest athletes I had witnessed in my lifetime. Every time he stepped on a sporting field, whether it was basketball or football, nobody had the physical skills that he possessed. He also, and this is totally subjective and from third person accounts, seemed like a reasonably intelligent kid who had at least a decent enough head on his shoulders to take advantage of his tremendous physical skills. I had seen and heard enough about him to fully be on the Terrelle Pryor bandwagon. I told another friend leading up to that Penn State game, an avid Ohio State fan, that I thought the Buckeyes were going to lose and that Pryor may struggle a bit in his first game under that kind of spotlight. I followed up that statement with the prediction that the Buckeyes would not lose another game as long as Pryor was their starting quarterback; I felt he was that darn good. Half of that prediction came true as Pryor and the Buckeyes lost that night 13-6 to Penn State in large part due to two Pryor turnovers in the fourth quarter.
Today, amid the scandals, Jim Tressel’s resignation and Pryor’s subsequent departure from Ohio State and entrance into the NFL supplement draft, the second half of that prediction seems a bit crazy in hindsight. When you really think about it, however, was I really that far off? Pryor went 25-3 over the remainder of his college career (really he was 25-4 as the Buckeyes lost the 2008 Fiesta Bowl with Pryor coming off the bench) with his 4 losses coming by a combined 27 points. Pryor won two BCS Bowl games as a starter, was named the MVP of the 2010 Rose Bowl when it looked like he was becoming the quarterback everyone thought he would be, and finished high atop the Ohio State record books in many passing and rushing categories despite being there only three years.
I will save you the time of reading through the stats of all the great college quarterbacks but believe me when I tell you that both Pryor’s statistics and his win-loss record stand right in line and even surpass many of the all-time greats including Dan Marino and Joe Montana, among others. Every time I watched Pryor play I felt that there was no question who was the best player on the field at all times. It actually left you wanting more from him, and that is probably part of the legacy he is leaving Ohio State with. Despite the great achievements he accomplished, it always felt like he could do more. Maybe that is more a reflection of how we think as fans than it is on Pryor as a player but it is still the case none-the- less. Instead of remembering a fantastic college quarterback and possibly the greatest Western PA athlete of all time for what he did accomplish, we remember him for what he failed to accomplish. There was no Heisman Trophy, no National Championship, and no career that resulted in being a first round NFL Draft pick.
Time will tell how Terrelle Pryor is ultimately remembered. I would guess that much of that memory will be based on how his pro career turns out and I, for one, will be rooting for him. The odds are against him this time, with his back against the wall from the scandal at Ohio State and coming out as a likely 4th or 5th round selection in the supplemental draft. Maybe everything that has happened will be a wake-up call for the young man. Maybe he will fully realize his tremendous physical potential at the pro level. Either way, I will be rooting for him because I hate to see that kind of talent wasted and I would hate to see Pryor remembered for what he was not able to accomplish instead of what he was. It is funny that even as I write this post trying to highlight the positive accomplishments that Pryor had, I find myself being more negative and critical of him than is my intention.
Today, the general thought around the country is that Pryor’s career at Ohio State was a failure. Maybe 50 years from now when the scandals, the sense of entitlement and the hype that came with Pryor is no longer talked about his career will be looked back upon a bit more favorably. For now, however, Pryor will go down as a disappointment in the minds of those who expected so much when he walked on the Ohio State campus back in 2008. For me, I will remember him for having the greatest collegiate career that everyone else believed was a total disappointment. I guess it goes with the territory.
I remember the date off the top of my head because it was the day of my wedding. A good buddy of mine, who was a groomsman and obviously a Penn State alumnus, wore his Nittany Lions socks under his tuxedo. My father-in-law wore a Penn State jersey under his tux and when it was time for some kind of picture during the reception we couldn’t find him because he was at the hotel bar watching the game. Needless to say, the game was an event. It was Pryor, the local kid, and his 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes taking on the undefeated Lions and Joe Paterno, the school and coach he turned down to join the now infamous Jim Tressel in Columbus.
I had seen enough of Pryor in high school and in the games leading up to the Penn State game to know that he was not only the real deal but that he was one of the greatest athletes I had witnessed in my lifetime. Every time he stepped on a sporting field, whether it was basketball or football, nobody had the physical skills that he possessed. He also, and this is totally subjective and from third person accounts, seemed like a reasonably intelligent kid who had at least a decent enough head on his shoulders to take advantage of his tremendous physical skills. I had seen and heard enough about him to fully be on the Terrelle Pryor bandwagon. I told another friend leading up to that Penn State game, an avid Ohio State fan, that I thought the Buckeyes were going to lose and that Pryor may struggle a bit in his first game under that kind of spotlight. I followed up that statement with the prediction that the Buckeyes would not lose another game as long as Pryor was their starting quarterback; I felt he was that darn good. Half of that prediction came true as Pryor and the Buckeyes lost that night 13-6 to Penn State in large part due to two Pryor turnovers in the fourth quarter.
Today, amid the scandals, Jim Tressel’s resignation and Pryor’s subsequent departure from Ohio State and entrance into the NFL supplement draft, the second half of that prediction seems a bit crazy in hindsight. When you really think about it, however, was I really that far off? Pryor went 25-3 over the remainder of his college career (really he was 25-4 as the Buckeyes lost the 2008 Fiesta Bowl with Pryor coming off the bench) with his 4 losses coming by a combined 27 points. Pryor won two BCS Bowl games as a starter, was named the MVP of the 2010 Rose Bowl when it looked like he was becoming the quarterback everyone thought he would be, and finished high atop the Ohio State record books in many passing and rushing categories despite being there only three years.
I will save you the time of reading through the stats of all the great college quarterbacks but believe me when I tell you that both Pryor’s statistics and his win-loss record stand right in line and even surpass many of the all-time greats including Dan Marino and Joe Montana, among others. Every time I watched Pryor play I felt that there was no question who was the best player on the field at all times. It actually left you wanting more from him, and that is probably part of the legacy he is leaving Ohio State with. Despite the great achievements he accomplished, it always felt like he could do more. Maybe that is more a reflection of how we think as fans than it is on Pryor as a player but it is still the case none-the- less. Instead of remembering a fantastic college quarterback and possibly the greatest Western PA athlete of all time for what he did accomplish, we remember him for what he failed to accomplish. There was no Heisman Trophy, no National Championship, and no career that resulted in being a first round NFL Draft pick.
Time will tell how Terrelle Pryor is ultimately remembered. I would guess that much of that memory will be based on how his pro career turns out and I, for one, will be rooting for him. The odds are against him this time, with his back against the wall from the scandal at Ohio State and coming out as a likely 4th or 5th round selection in the supplemental draft. Maybe everything that has happened will be a wake-up call for the young man. Maybe he will fully realize his tremendous physical potential at the pro level. Either way, I will be rooting for him because I hate to see that kind of talent wasted and I would hate to see Pryor remembered for what he was not able to accomplish instead of what he was. It is funny that even as I write this post trying to highlight the positive accomplishments that Pryor had, I find myself being more negative and critical of him than is my intention.
Today, the general thought around the country is that Pryor’s career at Ohio State was a failure. Maybe 50 years from now when the scandals, the sense of entitlement and the hype that came with Pryor is no longer talked about his career will be looked back upon a bit more favorably. For now, however, Pryor will go down as a disappointment in the minds of those who expected so much when he walked on the Ohio State campus back in 2008. For me, I will remember him for having the greatest collegiate career that everyone else believed was a total disappointment. I guess it goes with the territory.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Welcome Back Smorgasbord - King James, Terrelle Pryor and More!
The blog, much like LeBron James during the fourth quarters of the NBA Finals, has been on hiatus for a few weeks but we are back now to our regularly scheduled program. I will be back with columns every Wednesday and Friday with shorter posts sprinkled in here and there when thoughts and/or events come up. Since I have not commented on anything in a couple weeks here, what better way to jump back in than with an extended smorgasbord! Here we go…
- Where else can we start other than King James? Just when we thought he had fully arrived after the Boston and Chicago series he follows it up with a complete mental breakdown on the biggest stage of his career. (I must say that I had originally planned to do a column after the Chicago series saying how LeBron had finally arrived and was playing the way we all had envisioned him playing for so long…I’m glad that I didn’t have the time to write that post with how silly it would look just two weeks later!) Make no mistake - that was no choke job by LeBron. He wasn’t bricking foul shots or missing layups. He wasn’t throwing terrible passes or missing rebounds. He simply did not show up mentally following the game two loss for reasons that none of us can understand. Why did he stop attacking the basket? Why did his suffocating defense disappear? What in the world was going through his mind? Whatever it was, it was probably the same “thing” that pushed James into teaming up with Dwayne Wade in Miami in the first place. Whether it is a lack of a killer instinct, an unusual level of self-doubt that we typically do not see with players of his magnitude, or something else that none of us can put our fingers on, it is obvious that eight years into the NBA LeBron still does not have that “it” factor. Will he get there? I don’t know. My guess is that his talent alone will lead him to at least 2 or 3 championships and we will forget about many of these indiscretions. (It will be much the same way that we forget how badly Michael Jordan was criticized, called a gunner and how he couldn’t win the big one before he won his first title. That just sounds silly knowing what we know now.) At this point, however, I think we are close to realizing that he will never reach the absolute peak that his physical abilities call for because of something missing inside.
- Can somebody please explain to me what Cam Newton has that Terrelle Pryor doesn’t? Even if you consider Newton the better prospect, it cannot be the difference between the 1st overall pick in the draft and a 4th or 5th rounder as the reports are saying Pryor will go in the supplemental draft. Personally, I think both have a long way to go to be even a reasonably decent starting quarterback in the NFL and there is a good chance that neither amounts to much at that position. Both, however, have the same incredible upside with their tremendous physical abilities. Heck, I would even guess that as an athlete Pryor will grade out better than Newton. Just weird to me that some teams would value Newton’s upside to be that much more than Pryor’s despite the fact that it was Pryor who was a 3-year starter playing in a pro-style offense and not Newton. I will have much more on Pryor in Friday’s post.
- Game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight and what a crazy series it has been. Vancouver has squeaked out three 1-goal wins at home while losing the three games in Boston by a combined score of 17-3. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s goalie, has looked like two different players at home and on the road while Boston has reached this point on the back of its own net minder, Tim Thomas. I like the Canucks to win a close one tonight. You win games like these on the backs of your superstars (hey Penguins fans, Max Talbot is THE SUPERSTAR right?) and the Canucks have more of those players than the Bruins. Either way, I am sure looking forward to the game tonight. Nothing in sports is better than a game seven, and maybe no game sevens match the intensity and excitement of those in hockey.
- Major League baseball is over 40% of the way through its season and the lack of storylines continues to be a trend. Derek Jeter is now on the DL postponing his 3,000 hits bid, which was inevitable anyways. Almost every team in baseball is still alive for the postseason. There are a few players, Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson come to mind, having fantastic seasons but nobody who is doing something that approaches historical. Scoring continues to be down and there are more pitchers having good years but again, none are doing anything historic. The teams we thought would be good, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, etc. are good and outside of the Twins and Indians, the season has gone pretty much as expected. Really, the biggest story in baseball is the hometown Buccos and their quest to end the streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons. As we sit today, the Pirates are 33-33 and only 4 games out of the division lead. If the Pirates can continue to play at or around .500 I suspect the story will continue to pick up steam nationally.
- Speaking of the Pirates, it will be interesting to see what management does as the trade deadline approaches if they continue to hover around .500 and stay somewhat in contention. From a team building prospective, they should still be in “sell” mode but a run at .500 in August and September, especially if there is no football going on, would be a tremendous financial opportunity for the club and that is part of management’s job as well. I will have a lot more on this next week and my thoughts on what I think the Pirates should do if they continue to play good baseball into mid July.
- Pitt and Penn State have agreed to renew their rivalry on the football field starting in 2016. I know this is a big deal for the alumni bases but sorry, I can’t get excited over a football game five years from now. It is ridiculous that this game has not been played in over ten years and even when it resumes, it will lack the tradition and history the rivalry should have.
- College football is covered in scandal. The NFL is in danger of missing a portion or all of its upcoming season due to labor negotiations. The NBA and NHL have never been more popular. Is this the beginning of the end for football as America’s favorite sport? Probably not, and I suspect that the NFL and the Player’s Association will work something out in time because there is too much money to be lost but with a game that violent and that popular I think it is only a matter of time before the popularity decline begins.
- From my standpoint, the labor negotiations have been this year’s version of the Brett Favre comeback story as the most heavily covered story by the media that the general population doesn’t really care about. Most people could care less about how the two sides split up the $10 billion pie (despite the posturing by the player’s association and the owners blaming the other one) and really only care about whether there will be a season or not. I have kept an eye on the negotiations and court rulings from a general business interest but boy do I get annoyed when I have to listen to the daily updates on Sportscenter or on Mike and Mike when they are talking labor negotiations in mid-May. Despite being force-fed coverage of the lockout for the past four months, it will only be in the next couple of months when the pressure to get a deal done really picks up as fans start to become worried about a season actually being missed and players and owners alike realize that there may not be checks coming in the very near future.
- Where else can we start other than King James? Just when we thought he had fully arrived after the Boston and Chicago series he follows it up with a complete mental breakdown on the biggest stage of his career. (I must say that I had originally planned to do a column after the Chicago series saying how LeBron had finally arrived and was playing the way we all had envisioned him playing for so long…I’m glad that I didn’t have the time to write that post with how silly it would look just two weeks later!) Make no mistake - that was no choke job by LeBron. He wasn’t bricking foul shots or missing layups. He wasn’t throwing terrible passes or missing rebounds. He simply did not show up mentally following the game two loss for reasons that none of us can understand. Why did he stop attacking the basket? Why did his suffocating defense disappear? What in the world was going through his mind? Whatever it was, it was probably the same “thing” that pushed James into teaming up with Dwayne Wade in Miami in the first place. Whether it is a lack of a killer instinct, an unusual level of self-doubt that we typically do not see with players of his magnitude, or something else that none of us can put our fingers on, it is obvious that eight years into the NBA LeBron still does not have that “it” factor. Will he get there? I don’t know. My guess is that his talent alone will lead him to at least 2 or 3 championships and we will forget about many of these indiscretions. (It will be much the same way that we forget how badly Michael Jordan was criticized, called a gunner and how he couldn’t win the big one before he won his first title. That just sounds silly knowing what we know now.) At this point, however, I think we are close to realizing that he will never reach the absolute peak that his physical abilities call for because of something missing inside.
- Can somebody please explain to me what Cam Newton has that Terrelle Pryor doesn’t? Even if you consider Newton the better prospect, it cannot be the difference between the 1st overall pick in the draft and a 4th or 5th rounder as the reports are saying Pryor will go in the supplemental draft. Personally, I think both have a long way to go to be even a reasonably decent starting quarterback in the NFL and there is a good chance that neither amounts to much at that position. Both, however, have the same incredible upside with their tremendous physical abilities. Heck, I would even guess that as an athlete Pryor will grade out better than Newton. Just weird to me that some teams would value Newton’s upside to be that much more than Pryor’s despite the fact that it was Pryor who was a 3-year starter playing in a pro-style offense and not Newton. I will have much more on Pryor in Friday’s post.
- Game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight and what a crazy series it has been. Vancouver has squeaked out three 1-goal wins at home while losing the three games in Boston by a combined score of 17-3. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s goalie, has looked like two different players at home and on the road while Boston has reached this point on the back of its own net minder, Tim Thomas. I like the Canucks to win a close one tonight. You win games like these on the backs of your superstars (hey Penguins fans, Max Talbot is THE SUPERSTAR right?) and the Canucks have more of those players than the Bruins. Either way, I am sure looking forward to the game tonight. Nothing in sports is better than a game seven, and maybe no game sevens match the intensity and excitement of those in hockey.
- Major League baseball is over 40% of the way through its season and the lack of storylines continues to be a trend. Derek Jeter is now on the DL postponing his 3,000 hits bid, which was inevitable anyways. Almost every team in baseball is still alive for the postseason. There are a few players, Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson come to mind, having fantastic seasons but nobody who is doing something that approaches historical. Scoring continues to be down and there are more pitchers having good years but again, none are doing anything historic. The teams we thought would be good, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, etc. are good and outside of the Twins and Indians, the season has gone pretty much as expected. Really, the biggest story in baseball is the hometown Buccos and their quest to end the streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons. As we sit today, the Pirates are 33-33 and only 4 games out of the division lead. If the Pirates can continue to play at or around .500 I suspect the story will continue to pick up steam nationally.
- Speaking of the Pirates, it will be interesting to see what management does as the trade deadline approaches if they continue to hover around .500 and stay somewhat in contention. From a team building prospective, they should still be in “sell” mode but a run at .500 in August and September, especially if there is no football going on, would be a tremendous financial opportunity for the club and that is part of management’s job as well. I will have a lot more on this next week and my thoughts on what I think the Pirates should do if they continue to play good baseball into mid July.
- Pitt and Penn State have agreed to renew their rivalry on the football field starting in 2016. I know this is a big deal for the alumni bases but sorry, I can’t get excited over a football game five years from now. It is ridiculous that this game has not been played in over ten years and even when it resumes, it will lack the tradition and history the rivalry should have.
- College football is covered in scandal. The NFL is in danger of missing a portion or all of its upcoming season due to labor negotiations. The NBA and NHL have never been more popular. Is this the beginning of the end for football as America’s favorite sport? Probably not, and I suspect that the NFL and the Player’s Association will work something out in time because there is too much money to be lost but with a game that violent and that popular I think it is only a matter of time before the popularity decline begins.
- From my standpoint, the labor negotiations have been this year’s version of the Brett Favre comeback story as the most heavily covered story by the media that the general population doesn’t really care about. Most people could care less about how the two sides split up the $10 billion pie (despite the posturing by the player’s association and the owners blaming the other one) and really only care about whether there will be a season or not. I have kept an eye on the negotiations and court rulings from a general business interest but boy do I get annoyed when I have to listen to the daily updates on Sportscenter or on Mike and Mike when they are talking labor negotiations in mid-May. Despite being force-fed coverage of the lockout for the past four months, it will only be in the next couple of months when the pressure to get a deal done really picks up as fans start to become worried about a season actually being missed and players and owners alike realize that there may not be checks coming in the very near future.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Stanley Cup Playoffs Update
{Editor's Note: The site that runs this blog was down since Thursday night so this entry is going up much later than anticipated. With that occurrence, we will hold off until Monday with the MLB catch-up.}
I am writing this as they drop the puck for game seven of the Detroit-San Jose series, the only series in the second round that has given us any drama and if it wasn’t for the Red Wings rally from a 3-0 deficit this really would have been a boring round of Stanley Cup playoff action. If you are like me you were shocked to see the Lightning sweep the Caps. That’s four straight years Washington has failed to make it out of the Eastern Conference semifinals, twice losing in the first round, despite having Alex Ovechkin and a loaded roster. Despite being the coach of all four of those playoff failing teams, early rumors suggest that the Capitals are going to bring back coach Bruce Boudreau. That one certainly falls under the category of puzzling to me. Here are a few more NHL observations with the occasional update as I flip back and forth between the Sharks-Red Wings and Bulls-Hawks.
• Like I said, I was pretty shocked to see Tampa Bay roll the Capitals the way they did. I thought Washington’s deep and talented forward lines would overwhelm Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson and make it a rather short series in the Capitals favor. Boy, I could not have been more wrong. It just goes to show how different the Stanley Cup playoffs can be. Get a hot goalie, have a few stars on your roster and start playing good hockey at the right time and you can make a deep run. (With the Bulls currently steamrolling the Hawks on ESPN I have turned my attention to the Sharks game where San Jose earns the first power play of the game 11 minutes in.)
• Penguins’ fans taking solace in the fact that the Lightning swept Washington should stop. Just because Tampa Bay looks like they might have gotten on a roll now doesn’t make losing three straight elimination games, two on your home ice, any more excusable. If anything, Pens fans should be wondering “what if” after the Caps suffered another postseason collapse. (Beautiful power-play goal scored by the Sharks’ Devin Setoguchi off a no-look pass from Joe Thornton! Sharks go up 1-0! You might recall that I picked the Sharks to hoist the Cup from the beginning of the playoffs so I am certainly pulling for them tonight if for no other reason than that pick….as far as you know anyways.)
• I patted myself on the back enough yesterday talking about my Heat selection (and I am sure I will get plenty of flack if Miami slips up along the way) but I did want to remind people that I predicted it would be tough sledding in the playoffs for the Penguins without their stars. I took a lot of grief from Penguins fans about Fleury, our defense, and our role players being able to get on a roll but the simple truth in sports is that stars win championships, not role players. With a healthy Crosby and Malkin back next year, the Penguins will be right back on the short list of Cup contenders.
• One other quick Penguins thought before we move on. I love the idea of bringing Jaromir Jagr back if he is willing to come aboard at a reasonable contract. When I say reasonable, I mean one that is not much above the veteran minimum. Jagr can still put the puck in the net, as evidenced by his play at the World Championships, and he would be an instant upgrade on the power play. If “Jags” looks old or isn’t fitting in personality wise, the Penguins could easily give him the boot. If Jagr truly wants to play one more season in the NHL and only for a team that has a chance to compete for the Cup, I really don’t see a better fit than the Penguins. For the team, it could mean a potential low-risk, high reward proposition.
• Although it didn't come as much of a suprise as the Capitals being swept, it was still pretty hard to believe that the Flyers would also lose four straight at the hands of their longtime rivals in Boston. That means the Eastern Conference’s top two teams were both swept in the conference semifinals…pretty hard to believe. Philly’s injuries combined with their ongoing goalie rotation made this sweep a little easier to understand.
• I don’t think many people had a Tampa Bay-Boston matchup in their Stanley Cup playoff bracket. It should be an interesting contrast of styles as well with the defensive-minded Bruins taking on the high-scoring stars of Tampa Bay. I just like the way Roloson is competing in goal right now and think the Lightning have too much fire power for Boston up front. I’m taking the Lightning in six. (Goal by the Sharks! Logan Couture stuffs one in with less than a minute remaining in the 1st period, 2-0 Sharks. Bulls still up big, looks like we’re getting the Heat-Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals.)
• Over in the Western Conference, Vancouver finally rid themselves of their own playoff demons and advanced to the conference finals with a 4-2 series win over the Nashville Predators. The Canucks won a hard fought series in which every game was decided by two goals or less but it never really felt like they were in danger of losing control of the series. The series win has to make goalie Roberto Luongo feel good. Luongo is often considered one of, if not the best goalie in the NHL and had failed to get his team past the 2nd round of the playoffs in his previous three attempts. Luongo was even benched during the Canucks’ first round series for poor play but back-up Cory Schneider was injured in his lone start and Luongo led his team to a game seven win in which he may have established some playoff mojo. If the Sharks are able to hold onto their lead tonight, it would become a battle of the playoff-cursed franchises in the Western Conference Finals.
• What an incredible game seven between the Sharks and Red Wings. Just another example of why nothing in sports beats a game seven and that is especially true in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I thought the Sharks were going to blow not only a 3-0 series lead but a 2-0 and then 3-1 game seven lead in front of their home crowd but somehow, someway the Sharks were able to hold on for a 3-2 win. The Sharks advance to what should be a wonderful Western Conference Final with the Canucks. Many will probably proclaim that this series will be the real Stanley Cup Finals as either team will be heavily favored in the Finals against Tampa Bay or Boston. As you probably guessed, I am sticking with my original pick and taking the Sharks in six over the Canucks.
I am writing this as they drop the puck for game seven of the Detroit-San Jose series, the only series in the second round that has given us any drama and if it wasn’t for the Red Wings rally from a 3-0 deficit this really would have been a boring round of Stanley Cup playoff action. If you are like me you were shocked to see the Lightning sweep the Caps. That’s four straight years Washington has failed to make it out of the Eastern Conference semifinals, twice losing in the first round, despite having Alex Ovechkin and a loaded roster. Despite being the coach of all four of those playoff failing teams, early rumors suggest that the Capitals are going to bring back coach Bruce Boudreau. That one certainly falls under the category of puzzling to me. Here are a few more NHL observations with the occasional update as I flip back and forth between the Sharks-Red Wings and Bulls-Hawks.
• Like I said, I was pretty shocked to see Tampa Bay roll the Capitals the way they did. I thought Washington’s deep and talented forward lines would overwhelm Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson and make it a rather short series in the Capitals favor. Boy, I could not have been more wrong. It just goes to show how different the Stanley Cup playoffs can be. Get a hot goalie, have a few stars on your roster and start playing good hockey at the right time and you can make a deep run. (With the Bulls currently steamrolling the Hawks on ESPN I have turned my attention to the Sharks game where San Jose earns the first power play of the game 11 minutes in.)
• Penguins’ fans taking solace in the fact that the Lightning swept Washington should stop. Just because Tampa Bay looks like they might have gotten on a roll now doesn’t make losing three straight elimination games, two on your home ice, any more excusable. If anything, Pens fans should be wondering “what if” after the Caps suffered another postseason collapse. (Beautiful power-play goal scored by the Sharks’ Devin Setoguchi off a no-look pass from Joe Thornton! Sharks go up 1-0! You might recall that I picked the Sharks to hoist the Cup from the beginning of the playoffs so I am certainly pulling for them tonight if for no other reason than that pick….as far as you know anyways.)
• I patted myself on the back enough yesterday talking about my Heat selection (and I am sure I will get plenty of flack if Miami slips up along the way) but I did want to remind people that I predicted it would be tough sledding in the playoffs for the Penguins without their stars. I took a lot of grief from Penguins fans about Fleury, our defense, and our role players being able to get on a roll but the simple truth in sports is that stars win championships, not role players. With a healthy Crosby and Malkin back next year, the Penguins will be right back on the short list of Cup contenders.
• One other quick Penguins thought before we move on. I love the idea of bringing Jaromir Jagr back if he is willing to come aboard at a reasonable contract. When I say reasonable, I mean one that is not much above the veteran minimum. Jagr can still put the puck in the net, as evidenced by his play at the World Championships, and he would be an instant upgrade on the power play. If “Jags” looks old or isn’t fitting in personality wise, the Penguins could easily give him the boot. If Jagr truly wants to play one more season in the NHL and only for a team that has a chance to compete for the Cup, I really don’t see a better fit than the Penguins. For the team, it could mean a potential low-risk, high reward proposition.
• Although it didn't come as much of a suprise as the Capitals being swept, it was still pretty hard to believe that the Flyers would also lose four straight at the hands of their longtime rivals in Boston. That means the Eastern Conference’s top two teams were both swept in the conference semifinals…pretty hard to believe. Philly’s injuries combined with their ongoing goalie rotation made this sweep a little easier to understand.
• I don’t think many people had a Tampa Bay-Boston matchup in their Stanley Cup playoff bracket. It should be an interesting contrast of styles as well with the defensive-minded Bruins taking on the high-scoring stars of Tampa Bay. I just like the way Roloson is competing in goal right now and think the Lightning have too much fire power for Boston up front. I’m taking the Lightning in six. (Goal by the Sharks! Logan Couture stuffs one in with less than a minute remaining in the 1st period, 2-0 Sharks. Bulls still up big, looks like we’re getting the Heat-Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals.)
• Over in the Western Conference, Vancouver finally rid themselves of their own playoff demons and advanced to the conference finals with a 4-2 series win over the Nashville Predators. The Canucks won a hard fought series in which every game was decided by two goals or less but it never really felt like they were in danger of losing control of the series. The series win has to make goalie Roberto Luongo feel good. Luongo is often considered one of, if not the best goalie in the NHL and had failed to get his team past the 2nd round of the playoffs in his previous three attempts. Luongo was even benched during the Canucks’ first round series for poor play but back-up Cory Schneider was injured in his lone start and Luongo led his team to a game seven win in which he may have established some playoff mojo. If the Sharks are able to hold onto their lead tonight, it would become a battle of the playoff-cursed franchises in the Western Conference Finals.
• What an incredible game seven between the Sharks and Red Wings. Just another example of why nothing in sports beats a game seven and that is especially true in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I thought the Sharks were going to blow not only a 3-0 series lead but a 2-0 and then 3-1 game seven lead in front of their home crowd but somehow, someway the Sharks were able to hold on for a 3-2 win. The Sharks advance to what should be a wonderful Western Conference Final with the Canucks. Many will probably proclaim that this series will be the real Stanley Cup Finals as either team will be heavily favored in the Finals against Tampa Bay or Boston. As you probably guessed, I am sticking with my original pick and taking the Sharks in six over the Canucks.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Catching Up on the NBA Playoffs
The blog has been a little light on content lately as I deal with the usual busy spring season with the real job (I know, who the heck cares about that)but staying up late watching the Grizzlies-Thunder triple overtime thriller on Monday night has inspired me to go overtime this week. Today we’ll catch up on the NBA playoffs and the shocking sweep of the two time defending champs. Tomorrow I will dive into the NHL playoffs and the lack of drama in the second round and finally on Friday we will catch up on the first quarter or so of the MLB season including your .500 Buccos! Now, on to The Association:
• The Lakers sweep at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks would not be so shocking if we just took a short look back on previous Kobe era flameouts. Pretty much every time the Lakers have lost a playoff series since Shaq and Kobe won their first three titles they have gone down with a bang. Starting with the 2003 Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Spurs, each time Kobe’s Lakers have lost a playoff series they have lost it in dramatic fashion. In that 2003 series, the Lakers lost to the underdog Spurs in six games including a 28 point loss to finish the series, they followed that up with a 5-game series loss to the heavily underdog Pistons in the ‘04 NBA Finals, a 31-point loss to the Suns in ’06 when Kobe quit in the second half of game 7, a first round loss in five games to the Suns in ’07 and a 39 point loss to the Celtics in game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2008. Throw in the embarrassing game 4 in the Mavs’ sweep this year and you can’t help but question the Lakers ability to compete when their backs are against the wall.
• What this says about Kobe Bryant in particular I am not real sure but for a guy who prides himself on his fierce competitive attitude, it has to be both embarrassing to him and counterintuitive to this perception for the rest of us. Could you ever imagine Michael Jordan going out like that? How about Larry Bird? Kobe’s place and legacy as a top 10 or so player of all-time is safe, but let’s forget about the conversation placing him anywhere near those guys. This is coming from a Kobe guy, mind you.
• The Lakers were beat by a pretty good team, though, so for as much as the story is about the Lakers getting swept, let us give credit to the Mavericks for a great series and a truly great shooting performance. Dirk Nowitzki is certainly enhancing his legacy as the greatest foreign born player of all time and he is quickly approaching the Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan class as the greatest power forward of all time.
• If you haven’t been watching much of the Oklahoma City-Memphis series, do yourself a favor and make it a point to watch the final three games. I know many people may not have been intrigued by this series between the late start times and the lack of familiarity with these rosters but this series has been phenomenal from the start and could very well be the beginning of a fierce rivalry for Western Conference supremacy over the coming years. Both teams are loaded with young talent, highlighted of course by the Blog’s former poster boy in Kevin Durant. The fierceness and competitiveness of this series was in full display during Monday night’s triple overtime thriller that the Thunder were able to pull out to even the series. I still think the Thunder win this series because Durant is the best player on the court but I am hoping for our viewing pleasure that it goes the distance.
• A Dallas-Oklahoma City Western Conference Finals may not have the flare that any series involving the Lakers would have but it would be an absolutely fantastic series that I could see going at least six and probably seven games. I don’t think Memphis-Dallas would be as great for drama purposes as Dallas’ veteran presence and ability to match Memphis’ size in the post would make it a fairly short series in the Mavericks’ favor. Needless to say I am rooting for a Durant-Dirk dual in the Western Conference Finals.
• Over in the Eastern Conference we have seen much more of what was anticipated outside of the Hawks upset of the Magic in the first round. Chicago, Boston and Miami put away their series in relatively short fashion.
• It may be of surprise to some that the Heat are up 3-1 on the Celtics, but not to me. I picked the Heat to win the title before the season, I urged patience when they got off to a slow start, I stuck with them when they lost five consecutive games near the end of the season and I picked them before the playoffs began. Guess what, I am still picking them. They have the best player in the world (by a larger margin than most people want to admit) and the guy who is at a minimum in the conversation for the 2nd best player on the planet. You could put a couple of puppies around them and they could contend for the title but they have another top 20 player and a few veteran role players who have been through the gauntlet before. That’s why I have never really waivered from my opinion that they are the best team in the league. I thought the Lakers could give the Heat fits with their size but I guess we’ll never get the opportunity to find out. It would be fun to see the Thunder take on the Heat in the Finals, though, in what could become the beginning of many great battles between Durant and LeBron.
• I am putting the finishing touches on this post as I watch the Bulls and Hawks battle in game five of their series (Editor’s note: The Bulls pulled out a 95-83 victory with a strong fourth quarter). I am big fan of Derrick Rose. I think he is the point guard version of LeBron James with the ability to dominate the game with his pure athleticism, combining speed, power and quickness. Rose may have even deserved the NBA MVP for the contributions he made to his own team during the regular season (he would have been fourth in my personal ballot but ultimately I did not have a big problem with Rose winning the award). Watching the playoffs, however, we can see why he is still just a step below the Kobe, LeBron and Wades of the league. When Rose is on he is almost unstoppable but when he’s off he doesn’t have the ability to dominate the game in other areas the way the greats do. I think Rose could reach that potential, he already took one big leap forward on the defensive end this year, but he needs to improve his playmaking ability for his teammates and begin to dominate on the defensive end the way LeBron and Kobe do when their teams need it.
• The Bulls will probably get past the Hawks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals but that’s where their phenomenal 2010-2011 season will end. I thought before the second round began that Boston-Miami was the real Eastern Conference Finals and watching this Bulls-Hawks series has just solidified that opinion for me. Start preparing yourself now for some over-the-top, can’t watch Sportscenter anymore hype when the Heat are battling the Mavs or Thunder in the NBA Finals.
• The Lakers sweep at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks would not be so shocking if we just took a short look back on previous Kobe era flameouts. Pretty much every time the Lakers have lost a playoff series since Shaq and Kobe won their first three titles they have gone down with a bang. Starting with the 2003 Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Spurs, each time Kobe’s Lakers have lost a playoff series they have lost it in dramatic fashion. In that 2003 series, the Lakers lost to the underdog Spurs in six games including a 28 point loss to finish the series, they followed that up with a 5-game series loss to the heavily underdog Pistons in the ‘04 NBA Finals, a 31-point loss to the Suns in ’06 when Kobe quit in the second half of game 7, a first round loss in five games to the Suns in ’07 and a 39 point loss to the Celtics in game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2008. Throw in the embarrassing game 4 in the Mavs’ sweep this year and you can’t help but question the Lakers ability to compete when their backs are against the wall.
• What this says about Kobe Bryant in particular I am not real sure but for a guy who prides himself on his fierce competitive attitude, it has to be both embarrassing to him and counterintuitive to this perception for the rest of us. Could you ever imagine Michael Jordan going out like that? How about Larry Bird? Kobe’s place and legacy as a top 10 or so player of all-time is safe, but let’s forget about the conversation placing him anywhere near those guys. This is coming from a Kobe guy, mind you.
• The Lakers were beat by a pretty good team, though, so for as much as the story is about the Lakers getting swept, let us give credit to the Mavericks for a great series and a truly great shooting performance. Dirk Nowitzki is certainly enhancing his legacy as the greatest foreign born player of all time and he is quickly approaching the Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan class as the greatest power forward of all time.
• If you haven’t been watching much of the Oklahoma City-Memphis series, do yourself a favor and make it a point to watch the final three games. I know many people may not have been intrigued by this series between the late start times and the lack of familiarity with these rosters but this series has been phenomenal from the start and could very well be the beginning of a fierce rivalry for Western Conference supremacy over the coming years. Both teams are loaded with young talent, highlighted of course by the Blog’s former poster boy in Kevin Durant. The fierceness and competitiveness of this series was in full display during Monday night’s triple overtime thriller that the Thunder were able to pull out to even the series. I still think the Thunder win this series because Durant is the best player on the court but I am hoping for our viewing pleasure that it goes the distance.
• A Dallas-Oklahoma City Western Conference Finals may not have the flare that any series involving the Lakers would have but it would be an absolutely fantastic series that I could see going at least six and probably seven games. I don’t think Memphis-Dallas would be as great for drama purposes as Dallas’ veteran presence and ability to match Memphis’ size in the post would make it a fairly short series in the Mavericks’ favor. Needless to say I am rooting for a Durant-Dirk dual in the Western Conference Finals.
• Over in the Eastern Conference we have seen much more of what was anticipated outside of the Hawks upset of the Magic in the first round. Chicago, Boston and Miami put away their series in relatively short fashion.
• It may be of surprise to some that the Heat are up 3-1 on the Celtics, but not to me. I picked the Heat to win the title before the season, I urged patience when they got off to a slow start, I stuck with them when they lost five consecutive games near the end of the season and I picked them before the playoffs began. Guess what, I am still picking them. They have the best player in the world (by a larger margin than most people want to admit) and the guy who is at a minimum in the conversation for the 2nd best player on the planet. You could put a couple of puppies around them and they could contend for the title but they have another top 20 player and a few veteran role players who have been through the gauntlet before. That’s why I have never really waivered from my opinion that they are the best team in the league. I thought the Lakers could give the Heat fits with their size but I guess we’ll never get the opportunity to find out. It would be fun to see the Thunder take on the Heat in the Finals, though, in what could become the beginning of many great battles between Durant and LeBron.
• I am putting the finishing touches on this post as I watch the Bulls and Hawks battle in game five of their series (Editor’s note: The Bulls pulled out a 95-83 victory with a strong fourth quarter). I am big fan of Derrick Rose. I think he is the point guard version of LeBron James with the ability to dominate the game with his pure athleticism, combining speed, power and quickness. Rose may have even deserved the NBA MVP for the contributions he made to his own team during the regular season (he would have been fourth in my personal ballot but ultimately I did not have a big problem with Rose winning the award). Watching the playoffs, however, we can see why he is still just a step below the Kobe, LeBron and Wades of the league. When Rose is on he is almost unstoppable but when he’s off he doesn’t have the ability to dominate the game in other areas the way the greats do. I think Rose could reach that potential, he already took one big leap forward on the defensive end this year, but he needs to improve his playmaking ability for his teammates and begin to dominate on the defensive end the way LeBron and Kobe do when their teams need it.
• The Bulls will probably get past the Hawks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals but that’s where their phenomenal 2010-2011 season will end. I thought before the second round began that Boston-Miami was the real Eastern Conference Finals and watching this Bulls-Hawks series has just solidified that opinion for me. Start preparing yourself now for some over-the-top, can’t watch Sportscenter anymore hype when the Heat are battling the Mavs or Thunder in the NBA Finals.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Pirates Showing Improvement
Those that stayed up late last night saw the Pirates commit a series of miscues and poor decisions that led to blowing a late lead and a shot at .500. The loss had the feel of one of those “same old Buccos” losses that we have become accustomed to over the past 18 years. Those losses, however, have been few and far between so far this year. At the 30-game mark, the Pirates sit a respectable 14-16 and only three games out of first place in the NL Central. While the Pirates have gotten off to some decent starts during their current consecutive losing seasons streak, there is some legitimate cause for hope stemming from this relative batch of competent play.
First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.
Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.
With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.
While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.
The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.
Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.
First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.
Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.
With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.
While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.
The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.
Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.
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