You may have noticed that I have not talked much about the NFL on the blog lately and for good reason. It is impossible to talk about the NFL without getting into the current labor dispute and quite frankly, I don’t care about it. We are talking about billionaires, multi-millionaires and millionaires fighting over how to split up a $9 billion revenue pie while playing in publicly funded stadiums and charging ridiculous prices to fans all while being protected by antitrust laws that go against every business principle the United States was founded upon. See, I had to go there didn’t I?!?
Both the owners and players have a ton to lose by going through the legal system (the NFL is already learning this the hard way) and by September this will be much ado about nothing. The season will go on, there’s about $9 billion reasons why after the NFL lost its case trying to collect from the TV networks during the lockout, and by the second or third week of the season we will have all forgot about this dumb lockout.
To be honest, I have actually enjoyed the relatively little news coming from the NFL this offseason. It allowed fans everywhere to enjoy other sports without enduring the latest Brett Favre comeback update or veteran, crappy linebacker A signed with non-playoff team B, or whatever stories and rumors that usually get gobbled up by the millions of intense football fans around the country. It is now the end of April, however, and the NFL Draft is upon us. March Madness is over, the NBA and NHL playoffs are nearing their midpoint and training camp is just a little over two months away. It is time to start talking some football again.
So let’s quit talking about the off-field activity and dive into the draft. Last year I spent a ton of time putting together a mock draft and while I enjoyed doing it and got a lot of positive feedback on the piece, I realized once the draft began how largely worthless it became. This year, with no free agency and teams still having lots of line-up needs as a result, it seemed senseless to put together a mock draft when there were just so many possibilities for every team. Besides, there are a million mock drafts out there on the internet and each one is more wrong than the last. So this year I decided to do a recap on the draft, pick-by-pick, and let you know what I thought about last night’s 1st round proceedings. This format should provide some insight on each player, each team and really provide a general overview of the NFL as we head into next season. That is the hope anyways…so here we go!
1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB Auburn – Say what you want about Newton but the guy has a tremendous upside. He may be a longshot to reach that upside, and there is probably no middle ground with him, but I would still rather take that chance than draft one of the other QBs from the remainder of this, in my opinion, awful QB class. Would I have taken Newton 1st overall? Heck no, mostly because the price attached to taking such a risk. But I haven’t had the benefit that the Panthers did in researching, interviewing and studying Newton on and off the field. The Panthers also have the benefit of a strong running game and a new coach that should allow him to ease into the position. The key for the Panthers will be to build an offense around his strengths.
2. Denver Broncos – Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M – Miller is a tremendous physical specimen and a fantastic pass rusher from the outside but this pick puzzled me a bit. Most thought Miller was more of a prototypical 4-3 defensive end who could get after the QB. The Broncos are switching to a 3-4 defense this year and already have a star player in Elvis Dumervil who fits the role of edge rusher from the outside linebacker position, the position most assume Miller will play as well. John Elway may have gone with the best player available approach, a strategy I usually agree with, but in this instance I think Marcell Dareus made more since. One thing is for sure, however, and that is the Broncos desire to get after the quarterback this year on the defensive side of the ball.
3. Buffalo Bills – Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama – Speaking of Dareus, it didn’t take long for the Bills to snatch him up after Denver passed. The Bills have a ton of holes on both sides of the ball but they address their biggest concern with Dareus and that is improving the league’s worst defense against the run last year.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR Georgia – Green was the best player in this draft in my opinion. He is fast, runs good patterns, catches everything and can run after the catch. With TO moving on and Ochocinco most likely doing the same, the Bengals can begin to build their new-look offense around Green. The question now becomes who will be the guy to get him the ball? Rumors have the Bengals trying to move up to draft TCU QB Andy Dalton in the 2nd round. I doubt he is the answer but is worth the risk of a second round pick if they do not have to give up too much.
5. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Peterson, CB LSU – Great pick by the Cardinals here. They did not particularly need to address a mediocre secondary but did so by getting the best defensive player and best athlete in the draft. Peterson should be able to immediately bolster the Cardinals pass defense and will most likely make a splash in their return game as well. If the Cards can acquire a veteran QB to get the ball out to Fitzgerald they could quickly become the frontrunners in the NFC West again.
6. Atlanta Falcons – Julio Jones, WR Alabama – The Falcons certainly wanted a premier WR to put opposite of Roddy White, that’s for sure. The Falcons gave up a ton to move up 21 spots and take Jones, a physical WR who is great in run and catch situations and should be a great compliment to White. I like the move by the Falcons who need quality at this point of their team building, not quantity, and Jones could be the player needed to push them over the hump in the NFC. For Cleveland, I thought the trade was fantastic. The Browns have a ton of holes to fill and picking up a 2nd and 4th rounder this year and a 1st and 4th next year in addition to the 27th pick and the Brownies could easily have shortened their rebuilding project by a substantial margin.
7. San Francisco 49ers – Aldon Smith, DE Missouri – Jim Harbaugh is the coach closest to the college game having coached at Stanford last year and Harbaugh agrees with me that no QB in this class should be labeled a “franchise” guy. Desperate for a franchise QB, the Niners passed on the position to take Smith, a guy that I did not particularly like in this spot. Smith is a guy who can get after the quarterback and that is what they were targeting but I thought there were a number of better players on the board at this point. Maybe Harbaugh is trying to tank this year with Alex Smith at QB so he can land his protégé Andrew Luck in next year’s draft.
8. Tennessee Titans – Jake Locker, QB Washington – Terrible reach #1 on the night and a special thank you from all other AFC South fans to Jeff Fisher for stepping down as coach. I guess all you need to be considered a franchise quarterback in the minds of NFL personnel at this point is to “elevate” your program to a 6-6 record and an appearance in some crappy bowl game in your fourth year as the starter.
Quick tangent: Does Jon Gruden ever say anything negative? Check that, does he ever say anything negative about players or teams that he might want to coach for at some point in the future? Seriously, I never hear Gruden criticize a player or team and every time I hear his analysis I wonder how that guy was ever a good coach. He really is the next coming of John Madden. I mention him here because he was profusely defending Locker as a quarterback. After Kiper hit him with all the statistical reasons that Locker was a bum, including his extremely low completion percentage, Gruden threw this gem at him, “You guys can have your stats. He threw the ball away 66 times last year.”
9. Dallas Cowboys, Tyron Smith, OT USC – Very solid pick from the Cowboys here who needed to beef up their protection for Tony Romo. Smith is a phenomenal athlete for a tackle but probably has to put on a few pounds to be a true impact player at the left tackle position. Still, Smith is a very good player that addresses a big area of need for the Cowboys and he should be able to come in and contribute right away.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri – I am not sure what to make of this pick. I guess I like Gabbert more than any other QB in this class besides Newton and at number 10 he’s not a terrible value but the Jaguars did have to give up their second round pick to get him. My best guess is that Gabbert becomes no better of a pro than the Jags’ current QB, David Garrard. Still, not a bad risk at this point since the Missouri product does have the size, arm and athleticism to be a very good NFL quarterback.
11. Houston Texans – J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin – Watt was a good player in college and will be a good player in the NFL. Nothing exciting about this pick but it was a good one for Houston as Watt is a good fit to play defensive end as the Texans transition to the 3-4 defense.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder, QB Florida St. – Terrible reach #2 on the evening! I am not even sure Ponder was the best QB on his FSU team last year. For a team that is probably not that far removed from Super Bowl contention, I really do not understand this pick. Maybe the plan is to still bring in a veteran quarterback and allow Ponder to grow under that guy but I still don’t see a very high upside for this kid. Any of the following three picks would have made a whole lot more sense to me for Minnesota.
13. Detroit Lions – Nick Fairley, DT Auburn – Wow, the Lions had to be extremely pleased to see Fairley on the board this late despite the defensive line already being an area of strength for the team. When the draft process began, you know when the actual football games were being played, Fairley was heavily considered the best player in the draft. The questions surrounding Fairley’s work ethic and motor should be moot as he plays next to Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch, two relentless workers and great leaders. The Lions’ defensive line has the chance to be one of the best individual units in football next year with Fairley’s addition.
14. St. Louis Rams – Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina – Another tremendous value pick here for the Rams. Quinn did not play last year because of suspension but if he had many figured him to have been a possible top 5 pick. The Rams did not particularly need a defensive end but with the addition of Quinn on the opposite side of Chris Long the Rams, much like the Lions, could be tremendous up front on the defensive side of the football.
15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey, OC Florida – From all of the reading I did leading up to the draft it doesn’t sound like Maurkice’s little brother would have went this high if he had a different last name. That being said, the other Pouncey is a good prospect and fills a position of need for the Miami Dolphins as they try to improve the interior of their offensive line. Pouncey’s ability to play center or guard should also allow the Dolphins some flexibility on how they construct that o-line.
16. Washington Redskins – Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue – Kerrigan was a tremendously productive player as a defensive end in college but will switch to OLB in the 3-4 for the Redskins. I suspect Kerrigan will be a good player for the Redskins but will probably never be elite. For a team with a lot of holes though, he is more of a sure thing and a good pick.
17. New England Patriots – Nate Solder, OT Colorado – For the way scouts talked about Solder and cornerback Jimmy Smith from Colorado it makes you wonder why the Buffaloes were so terrible. Solder is a solid pick for the Patriots as they try to rebuild an aging offensive line and should provide some flexibility with his ability to play both left and right tackle. The Patriots biggest concern going forward should be how to keep Tom Brady standing up.
18. San Diego Chargers – Corey Liuget, DT Illinois – Another reach for me, although this was an area of need for the Chargers as Liuget will most likely play defensive end in the Chargers scheme. Liuget was a productive player in college but never stood out for me as a star. He has a nonstop motor and should be a decent player for the Chargers, although I’m not sure decent is the goal for a first round pick.
19. New York Giants - Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska - With a number of teams seemingly reaching for quarterbacks or other positions a few others were able to take great advantage. The Giants were one of those landing Amukamara, who many had rated as a top 10 talent. Both Giants’ starting corners are free agents after the 2011 season so Prince gives the Giants insurance in case one should bolt and playing in the NFC East a team can never have enough corners anyhow. Tremendous pick here for the G-Men.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa – Another Big Ten defensive lineman, the fourth (and third defensive end) in the last ten picks. Clayborn is a playmaker despite suffering from a disease that effects the use of his right arm and should fit in nicely at defensive end for Tampa’s Cover 2 scheme.
21. Cleveland Browns – Phil Taylor, DT Baylor – The Browns gave up a third round pick to the Chiefs to move up six spots and select Taylor, the best pure nose tackle in the draft. In what seems to be a theme around the league the Browns look like they are also moving towards a 3-4 defensive scheme. Taylor is a big, nasty, in the trenches type of player who should be a good fit anchoring the Browns defensive line.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College – Much like the Patriots, the Colts primary goal going forward has to be keeping Peyton Manning on his feet. Castonzo is a polished prospect that will most likely come in and start right away.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Danny Watkins, OG Baylor – Typical Eagles pick here and a good one. Watkins is 26-years-old after spending a few years away from football so he is more mature than your typical rookie and he should come in and start right away. Nobody drafts up front better than Andy Reid and company and I see no reason why this pick should be any different. The Eagles also need a corner but my guess is that they are heavily involved in the Nnamdi Asomugha bidding war whenever the free agency period starts.
24. New Orleans Saints – Cameron Jordan, DE California – Jordan fills a critical need for the Saints at defensive end and will be counted on to provide pressure on opposing QBs. We know the Saints are set on the offensive side of the ball and Jordan should help where it is needed most.
25. Seattle Seahawks – James Carpenter, OG Alabama – This is not the flashy pick that many expected from the Seahawks but it is a good pick and should help sure up the Hawks’ offensive line. Seattle is probably in the market for a quarterback somewhere in the draft and can probably pick up a Ryan Mallett, Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick in the second round, all guys who offer as much upside (or downside) as the guys who went much, much earlier.
26. Kansas City Chiefs – Jonathan Baldwin, WR Pitt – This is where the weirdness started as the Bears and Ravens are reported to have had a trade in place and the Bears never called into the league offices to confirm. Time elapsed and the Ravens were skipped by the Chiefs for the 26th pick where they took the Pitt wide out. Baldwin has some question marks surrounding him but he is a tremendous athlete, big and has great ball skills. He should fit in well across from Dwayne Bowe as the Chiefs deep-ball threat, if Cassel can throw the ball far enough that is.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado – The Ravens were probably a little perturbed at the Bears with the botched trade as I am guessing they could have still landed Smith with the 29th selection and picked up a fourth rounder in the process but at least they still landed their guy. Many consider Smith the second best corner in this draft behind Peterson and the only reason he slipped was character concerns. I am not as high on Smith but for the 27th pick it is hard to argue with the value and the Ravens were desperate for corner help.
28. New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram, RB Alabama – The Patriots traded back in the draft to pick up extra picks? No way! I do like the deal on both ends, however, as the Patriots pick up an extra first rounder next year while sliding back about 28 spots while the Saints land their heir apparent at running back. Ingram’s versatility and ability to catch the ball will be a perfect fit in Sean Payton’s attack and probably signals the end of the Reggie Bush era in ‘Nawlins.
29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin – The Bears gave up 56 sacks last year and despite Mike Martz’ scheme and Jay Cutler’s propensity to hold on to the ball too long, an upgrade on the offensive line was needed. Carimi should be a good player at right tackle for the Bears and fills their biggest need along the offensive line. He probably won’t be a pro-bowler but he should be a good player in this league for a long time.
30. New York Jets - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE Temple – The Jets had to be thrilled to land Wilkerson this late in the first round and the Temple product will be expected to come in and provide help on the Jets’ aging defensive line immediately. The Jets, Steelers and Packers all got great values at the end of the first round due to so many reaches above them. It is no wonder that the same teams are competing for championships year in and year out.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St. – Ironhead Heyward’s son is an incredible fit for the Steelers and a real find at the end of the first round. Heyward was an extremely productive player and often the star on the Buckeyes defense in his four years in Columbus and is the prototype to play defensive end in the 3-4. This may signal, however, that the Steelers do not expect much from the return of Aaron Smith. If Smith does return, the Steelers have a pretty scary two-deep rotation for the next year or two on the defensive line and have their anchors at defensive end in Ziggy Hood and Heyward for years to come. Now the Steelers must address their depth at corner and on the offensive line in the next couple of rounds.
32. Green Bay Packers – Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State – The Packers, much like the Steelers, do not have many holes to fill as they are fresh off their Super Bowl title and have 16 guys returning from injured reserve. One place they did need to sure up, and begin planning for the future, was on the offensive line. The Pack did that with Sherrod who, along with their first round pick last year in Brian Bulaga, could form the bookends for the Packers’ offensive line for the next decade.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Penguins Blow Opportunities, Series
There is nothing more unpredictable in sports than a game seven in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year we watched in shock as the Montreal Canadiens took it to the Penguins on their home ice in a series where most thought Pittsburgh had the superior team. Last night we had to sit there in horror as the Penguins dominated puck possession, scoring chances and physical play but couldn’t get a single puck in the back of the net on their way to a 1-0 shutout loss. With or without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, anything can happen in a game seven. That is why it was so disappointing to see the Penguins blow chances in games five and six with a chance to close out Tampa Bay. Ultimately the series was lost by the Penguins inability to score goals, something I have been cautioning about for weeks now, as they scored only 14 goals in seven games. Looking back, however, it was the Penguins failed opportunities in games five and six and their failed opportunities on all but one of their 30 something power plays during the series that cost the Penguins a chance to move forward even without number 87 on the ice.
I predicted before the series that the Penguins would win in six. I thought they could get past the first round based on the goaltending match-up and their superior defense. I cautioned, however, that if this series went to seven that the Pens could be in trouble without a star to rely on. This is almost exactly what happened last night. Despite dominating the puck for most of the game and getting a solid, if not great, performance from Marc-Andre Fleury, the Penguins couldn’t get a single shot behind Lightning goaltender Dwayne Roloson. This year, without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it was imperative for the Penguins to avoid a game seven against a team full of superstars like Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steven Stamkos, among others. Sure it was none of the Lightning stars who scored the only goal in game seven, rather it was grinder Sean Bergenheim, but it was the failure of the Penguins to produce a goal whether at even strength or on any of their five power plays. Needless to say, the Penguins could have used a guy they could have relied upon for offense.
The good news is that unlike most playoff losses that begin the “what happened” discussions and “what needs to be done for next year” questions, this one is pretty easy to explain and the pieces are already in place to make the Penguins one of the top Cup favorites for next year. Crosby and Malkin will be back and probably hungrier than ever. Fleury, Staal, Orpik, Letang, Neal, Martin, Michalek, Kunitz and Kennedy are all signed through next year and in most cases a couple of years beyond. Sure, General Manager Ray Shero has some decisions to make on role players such as Max Talbot and if he should trade Matt Cooke, but based on his track record we can expect Shero to make the best of those decisions. The Penguins fatal flaw this year was their inability to score goals. That is something that is pretty easily remedied by plugging two of the world’s best players back in the line-up. It is a sad day for Penguins fans, mostly because of the blown opportunities that the Penguins had in the series, but there is a lot to look forward to next year and beyond.
I predicted before the series that the Penguins would win in six. I thought they could get past the first round based on the goaltending match-up and their superior defense. I cautioned, however, that if this series went to seven that the Pens could be in trouble without a star to rely on. This is almost exactly what happened last night. Despite dominating the puck for most of the game and getting a solid, if not great, performance from Marc-Andre Fleury, the Penguins couldn’t get a single shot behind Lightning goaltender Dwayne Roloson. This year, without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it was imperative for the Penguins to avoid a game seven against a team full of superstars like Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steven Stamkos, among others. Sure it was none of the Lightning stars who scored the only goal in game seven, rather it was grinder Sean Bergenheim, but it was the failure of the Penguins to produce a goal whether at even strength or on any of their five power plays. Needless to say, the Penguins could have used a guy they could have relied upon for offense.
The good news is that unlike most playoff losses that begin the “what happened” discussions and “what needs to be done for next year” questions, this one is pretty easy to explain and the pieces are already in place to make the Penguins one of the top Cup favorites for next year. Crosby and Malkin will be back and probably hungrier than ever. Fleury, Staal, Orpik, Letang, Neal, Martin, Michalek, Kunitz and Kennedy are all signed through next year and in most cases a couple of years beyond. Sure, General Manager Ray Shero has some decisions to make on role players such as Max Talbot and if he should trade Matt Cooke, but based on his track record we can expect Shero to make the best of those decisions. The Penguins fatal flaw this year was their inability to score goals. That is something that is pretty easily remedied by plugging two of the world’s best players back in the line-up. It is a sad day for Penguins fans, mostly because of the blown opportunities that the Penguins had in the series, but there is a lot to look forward to next year and beyond.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Catching Up on the Playoffs
Both the NHL and NBA playoffs are in full gear now and while we can start to see who may prevail in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, I think the first round in the NBA is scheduled to end sometime around Memorial Day. In all seriousness, I know the NBA spreads its games out for national TV purposes but come on now…nearly three weeks for the first round to be played out is ridiculous. David Stern and his office need to come up with a better plan for this schedule. Why not use staggered start times like the NHL or NCAA tournament does so that TNT or whoever is covering that night’s games could air the fourth quarter of every game if it is close? There is no way that the Magic-Hawks game on NBATV last night was watched by many households outside of Orlando or Atlanta. Why in the world did they need three days between games one and two? I consider Stern the best commissioner in sports but he needs to shorten the amount of time this first round stretches to keep fans interested and to get to the more juicy match-ups in the later rounds.
Now that we got today’s rant out of the way, here are some other thoughts from around the NBA and NHL playoffs:
NHL
• The Penguins lead their series with the Lighting 2-1 heading into game four tonight despite having the worst special teams play amongst all playoff teams so far. The Pens are 0-15 on the power play and their penalty kill has given up 4 goals on 11 tries (63.7% kill rate), both good for last among the teams still playing. If the Penguins want to continue playing, they better find a way to even this disadvantage out in a hurry.
• There really have been no surprises so far in the NHL playoffs. The only higher seeded teams to trail in their series right now are Anaheim and Boston who are both down 2- 1. Being that these two series were looked at as the most even coming in neither comes as a big surprise and both favorites have plenty of opportunity to come back. The other perceived evenly matched series between Buffalo and Philadelphia has also been close and the difference in Philadelphia’s two games to one lead was inserting backup goalie Brian Boucher in net in the middle of game two. Boucher led the comeback in game two and was the starter in the Flyers’ game three win. All three of these series could easily come down to a game seven.
• Detroit and Vancouver look like the class of the Western Conference, ignoring the Canucks beating last night at the hands of the Blackhawks in what I saw as the defending champions’ last gasp. Detroit goes for the sweep tonight in Phoenix and the Canucks should close out Chicago on home ice tomorrow. If the two should meet in the conference finals it should be an unbelievable series. San Jose was my pick to come out of the Western Conference and the Sharks are up 2-1 on the Kings but they needed overtime in both of their victories and have not inspired a ton of confidence the way they have played against a depleted Los Angeles team.
• If we could skip ahead for a moment and assume the Penguins get past Tampa Bay, - I know, a big assumption right now and a terrible jinx on the Pens! - I think Pens’ fans should be pulling for Philadelphia and Montreal to win their respective series. That would set up the Penguins to play the Flyers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, a series the Penguins could win with or without the return of their captain. I would much rather see Philadelphia and their goaltending situation (not to mention a team that the Pens have owned in the playoffs) than go up against either the Canadiens or the Capitals in the next round. Let’s allow those two teams to beat up on each other for a couple of weeks and have the Penguins take on the winner in the Eastern Conference Finals.
NBA
• In stark contrast to the NHL playoffs, the NBA has been chalk full of surprises with three heavy underdogs taking game one on the road and the other five giving the higher seeded team everything they could handle. While all five home teams have won their game two so far, the Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls and Magic were all put to the test before ultimately pulling out home victories. Only the Heat have shown any semblance of being the vastly superior team in their series. Three more game twos take place tonight with, and this is weird to type, both the Spurs and Lakers trying to even up their respective series.
• The biggest shock among the game one upsets was the Lakers losing at Staples Center against a Hornets team that could more accurately be called “Chris Paul and a bunch of nobodies”. New Orleans’ second best player, David West, is out for the year with a torn ACL and the Hornets relied heavily on Aaron Gray in the post. Yes, that is the same Aaron Gray that some Pitt fans are still wondering if he can even dunk. Paul is an unbelievable player and hopefully those that so quickly wanted to anoint Derrick Rose the best point guard in basketball witnessed Paul’s 33 points - 14 assists- 7 rebounds - 4 steals effort on Sunday but there is really no excuse the Lakers could have for losing this game. An overwhelming favorite to come out of the West for a chance at another three-peat, the Lakers proved that they are more vulnerable than many of us may have thought. I think the loss also opened the eyes of the rest of the Western Conference that this thing really is up for grabs.
• The team that could really be licking their chops is the Oklahoma City Thunder. I know I mentioned them as a dark horse in my playoff preview but nobody else in the Western Conference has the personnel to match-up with either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets and their 10-deep rotation are going to give the Thunder everything they can handle in round one but ultimately I think we end up with a tremendous Western Conference Finals between Ok City and L.A.
• In the East we are still tracking for a fantastic final four of Chicago, Miami, Boston and Orlando. Although, as I said earlier, only the Heat have shown even a glimpse of their tremendous potential through the early parts of round one. It is just a shame that we have to wait another two weeks until the playoffs can really begin in the Eastern Conference in all likelihood.
Now that we got today’s rant out of the way, here are some other thoughts from around the NBA and NHL playoffs:
NHL
• The Penguins lead their series with the Lighting 2-1 heading into game four tonight despite having the worst special teams play amongst all playoff teams so far. The Pens are 0-15 on the power play and their penalty kill has given up 4 goals on 11 tries (63.7% kill rate), both good for last among the teams still playing. If the Penguins want to continue playing, they better find a way to even this disadvantage out in a hurry.
• There really have been no surprises so far in the NHL playoffs. The only higher seeded teams to trail in their series right now are Anaheim and Boston who are both down 2- 1. Being that these two series were looked at as the most even coming in neither comes as a big surprise and both favorites have plenty of opportunity to come back. The other perceived evenly matched series between Buffalo and Philadelphia has also been close and the difference in Philadelphia’s two games to one lead was inserting backup goalie Brian Boucher in net in the middle of game two. Boucher led the comeback in game two and was the starter in the Flyers’ game three win. All three of these series could easily come down to a game seven.
• Detroit and Vancouver look like the class of the Western Conference, ignoring the Canucks beating last night at the hands of the Blackhawks in what I saw as the defending champions’ last gasp. Detroit goes for the sweep tonight in Phoenix and the Canucks should close out Chicago on home ice tomorrow. If the two should meet in the conference finals it should be an unbelievable series. San Jose was my pick to come out of the Western Conference and the Sharks are up 2-1 on the Kings but they needed overtime in both of their victories and have not inspired a ton of confidence the way they have played against a depleted Los Angeles team.
• If we could skip ahead for a moment and assume the Penguins get past Tampa Bay, - I know, a big assumption right now and a terrible jinx on the Pens! - I think Pens’ fans should be pulling for Philadelphia and Montreal to win their respective series. That would set up the Penguins to play the Flyers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, a series the Penguins could win with or without the return of their captain. I would much rather see Philadelphia and their goaltending situation (not to mention a team that the Pens have owned in the playoffs) than go up against either the Canadiens or the Capitals in the next round. Let’s allow those two teams to beat up on each other for a couple of weeks and have the Penguins take on the winner in the Eastern Conference Finals.
NBA
• In stark contrast to the NHL playoffs, the NBA has been chalk full of surprises with three heavy underdogs taking game one on the road and the other five giving the higher seeded team everything they could handle. While all five home teams have won their game two so far, the Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls and Magic were all put to the test before ultimately pulling out home victories. Only the Heat have shown any semblance of being the vastly superior team in their series. Three more game twos take place tonight with, and this is weird to type, both the Spurs and Lakers trying to even up their respective series.
• The biggest shock among the game one upsets was the Lakers losing at Staples Center against a Hornets team that could more accurately be called “Chris Paul and a bunch of nobodies”. New Orleans’ second best player, David West, is out for the year with a torn ACL and the Hornets relied heavily on Aaron Gray in the post. Yes, that is the same Aaron Gray that some Pitt fans are still wondering if he can even dunk. Paul is an unbelievable player and hopefully those that so quickly wanted to anoint Derrick Rose the best point guard in basketball witnessed Paul’s 33 points - 14 assists- 7 rebounds - 4 steals effort on Sunday but there is really no excuse the Lakers could have for losing this game. An overwhelming favorite to come out of the West for a chance at another three-peat, the Lakers proved that they are more vulnerable than many of us may have thought. I think the loss also opened the eyes of the rest of the Western Conference that this thing really is up for grabs.
• The team that could really be licking their chops is the Oklahoma City Thunder. I know I mentioned them as a dark horse in my playoff preview but nobody else in the Western Conference has the personnel to match-up with either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets and their 10-deep rotation are going to give the Thunder everything they can handle in round one but ultimately I think we end up with a tremendous Western Conference Finals between Ok City and L.A.
• In the East we are still tracking for a fantastic final four of Chicago, Miami, Boston and Orlando. Although, as I said earlier, only the Heat have shown even a glimpse of their tremendous potential through the early parts of round one. It is just a shame that we have to wait another two weeks until the playoffs can really begin in the Eastern Conference in all likelihood.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
NBA Playoff Wishes and Predictions
The NBA Playoffs tip-off today and we are potentially setting up for the best two months of playoff basketball in my lifetime. Eight different teams, in my opinion anyway, have a chance to win the whole thing if they get the right match-ups and get hot at the right time. Realistically, however, there are five teams with “anything less than the title would be a disappointment” aspirations. Those five are the Lakers and Spurs out West and the Bulls, Heat and Celtics in the East. The three darkhorses are the Mavericks, Magic and Thunder…although the Mavericks have really limped to the finish line. I have three wishes for these playoffs:
1. The top four seeds in each conference win their opening round series setting up the best conference semifinals of all-time.
2. We get to see a Chicago-Miami Eastern Conference Final. This series could have the potential to be an instant classic with the defensive-minded, crazily intense Bulls going head to head with LeBron and D-Wade. Not to mention a Boston-Chicago series could take basketball back to the early 90s slugfests that turned so many off from professional basketball.
3. The Lakers make it to the Finals from the West. It really doesn’t matter who comes out of the East as Boston, Chicago or Miami would make for an unbelievable Finals as long as Kobe, Pau, Phil and Company are there trying for a 3-peat. Of course a LeBron versus Kobe Finals is what we have all been begging to happen for a few years now but Lakers-Bulls or Lakers-Celtics wouldn’t be bad consolation prizes.
If those three wishes come true, even if you are not a NBA fan, believe me when I tell you that you’ll want to be watching. The league has never been so full of stars and when you start talking about a second round featuring at least 18 future or potential Hall of Famers spread across the eight teams we are in for a real treat. (Kobe, Gasol, Duncan, Ginobli, Dirk, Kidd, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Garnett, Allen and Pierce are locks for the HOF and Durant, Westbrook, Rose, Bosh, Parker and Rondo are all well on their way.)
As for my Finals predictions, I’m taking Miami to outlast Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals proving why LeBron, and not Derrick Rose, is the best player in the NBA and should have won this year’s NBA MVP. I know it’s a foregone conclusion that Rose is going to win it this year, he’s the best story and was the best offensive player on the league’s best team, but that’s only because most people (in this case the media members with award votes) only understand what they can see. They don’t understand that the Bulls were far and away the best defensive team in basketball and that is the biggest reason why their wins took a dramatic uptick. It is true that LeBron had Wade there to help him and the Bulls have nobody else on his level, but the Bulls prominently feature Noah, Boozer, Deng and the best frontcourt defensive tandem in basketball coming off the bench. The Heat would die for any of these players, spent the year trying to figure out their identity, Bosh underachieving, and quite possibly the worst point guard and center play in the league yet still won 58 games, the third most in the NBA mostly because LeBron is the league's best player.
I hated what LeBron did this summer. I wanted to stop liking him as a player, which I couldn’t. I agree that Derrick Rose is a great story and has taken his game to a whole new level. He is right there now with Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the league’s best point guard debate. None of that, however, changes the fact that James is far and away the NBA’s best and Most Valuable Player this year, and for the foreseeable future.
On to the predictions:
Eastern Conference
Bulls over Pacers in four.
Heat over 76ers in five.
Celtics over Knicks in five.
Magic over Hawks in five.
Bulls over Magic in seven.
Heat over Celtics in six.
Heat over Bulls in six.
Western Conference
Spurs over Grizzlies in six.
Lakers over Hornets in four.
Mavericks over Trailblazers in seven.
Thunder over Nuggets in six.
Thunder over Spurs in six.
Lakers over Mavericks in five.
Lakers over Thunder in seven.
NBA Finals
Yes, I am going with our dream match-up to come true. Could you imagine the hype around this series? Kobe going for his sixth ring to tie Jordan. Phil Jackson going for his fourth 3-peat as coach. LeBron going for his first title, Wade going for his second and Chris Bosh tagging along. Ratings would be through the roof, the Heat Index might explode on ESPN and we would all be sick of Sportscenter previews before the Series even began. So…who will win? I honestly can’t give a prediction without second guessing myself. I don’t know how the Heat could handle Gasol, Bynum and Odom inside. I don’t know how the Lakers could handle Wade and LeBron in transition. All I do know is that I hope this series happens. I am taking the easy way out and predicting the Heat in seven since they have home court but the real winners would be us, the fans.
1. The top four seeds in each conference win their opening round series setting up the best conference semifinals of all-time.
2. We get to see a Chicago-Miami Eastern Conference Final. This series could have the potential to be an instant classic with the defensive-minded, crazily intense Bulls going head to head with LeBron and D-Wade. Not to mention a Boston-Chicago series could take basketball back to the early 90s slugfests that turned so many off from professional basketball.
3. The Lakers make it to the Finals from the West. It really doesn’t matter who comes out of the East as Boston, Chicago or Miami would make for an unbelievable Finals as long as Kobe, Pau, Phil and Company are there trying for a 3-peat. Of course a LeBron versus Kobe Finals is what we have all been begging to happen for a few years now but Lakers-Bulls or Lakers-Celtics wouldn’t be bad consolation prizes.
If those three wishes come true, even if you are not a NBA fan, believe me when I tell you that you’ll want to be watching. The league has never been so full of stars and when you start talking about a second round featuring at least 18 future or potential Hall of Famers spread across the eight teams we are in for a real treat. (Kobe, Gasol, Duncan, Ginobli, Dirk, Kidd, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Garnett, Allen and Pierce are locks for the HOF and Durant, Westbrook, Rose, Bosh, Parker and Rondo are all well on their way.)
As for my Finals predictions, I’m taking Miami to outlast Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals proving why LeBron, and not Derrick Rose, is the best player in the NBA and should have won this year’s NBA MVP. I know it’s a foregone conclusion that Rose is going to win it this year, he’s the best story and was the best offensive player on the league’s best team, but that’s only because most people (in this case the media members with award votes) only understand what they can see. They don’t understand that the Bulls were far and away the best defensive team in basketball and that is the biggest reason why their wins took a dramatic uptick. It is true that LeBron had Wade there to help him and the Bulls have nobody else on his level, but the Bulls prominently feature Noah, Boozer, Deng and the best frontcourt defensive tandem in basketball coming off the bench. The Heat would die for any of these players, spent the year trying to figure out their identity, Bosh underachieving, and quite possibly the worst point guard and center play in the league yet still won 58 games, the third most in the NBA mostly because LeBron is the league's best player.
I hated what LeBron did this summer. I wanted to stop liking him as a player, which I couldn’t. I agree that Derrick Rose is a great story and has taken his game to a whole new level. He is right there now with Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the league’s best point guard debate. None of that, however, changes the fact that James is far and away the NBA’s best and Most Valuable Player this year, and for the foreseeable future.
On to the predictions:
Eastern Conference
Bulls over Pacers in four.
Heat over 76ers in five.
Celtics over Knicks in five.
Magic over Hawks in five.
Bulls over Magic in seven.
Heat over Celtics in six.
Heat over Bulls in six.
Western Conference
Spurs over Grizzlies in six.
Lakers over Hornets in four.
Mavericks over Trailblazers in seven.
Thunder over Nuggets in six.
Thunder over Spurs in six.
Lakers over Mavericks in five.
Lakers over Thunder in seven.
NBA Finals
Yes, I am going with our dream match-up to come true. Could you imagine the hype around this series? Kobe going for his sixth ring to tie Jordan. Phil Jackson going for his fourth 3-peat as coach. LeBron going for his first title, Wade going for his second and Chris Bosh tagging along. Ratings would be through the roof, the Heat Index might explode on ESPN and we would all be sick of Sportscenter previews before the Series even began. So…who will win? I honestly can’t give a prediction without second guessing myself. I don’t know how the Heat could handle Gasol, Bynum and Odom inside. I don’t know how the Lakers could handle Wade and LeBron in transition. All I do know is that I hope this series happens. I am taking the easy way out and predicting the Heat in seven since they have home court but the real winners would be us, the fans.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Friday Smorgasbord!
No need for a preamble, let’s dive right in!
• The Penguins played what quite possibly was their best game of the season since Crosby’s injury in game one. It was hard to tell if the Penguins were able to raise their level of play that much or if the Lighting were a little shell-shocked by the intensity of the playoffs. Either way, if the Penguins continue to get that kind of play from Marc-Andre Fleury in net and the power play continues to show some life, the Pens are going to be a tough out for anyone even without Sid. With him, I think they just might become the favorite once again.
• Six of the eight teams I predicted to move on in round one won their opening game. I am not sure if that is good or if missing the two upsets everyone was calling for is bad. It is still early, however, and winning game one doesn’t mean a whole lot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hopefully the Penguins remember that.
• So much for that great Pirates’ start. After losing five of their last six, the Buccos are now 5-7 and trail four other teams in the NL Central. Sure the standings, and even the records, are not very important this time of the year but it would have been nice if this team could have sustained some momentum from the strong early start.
• The good news is that the Pirates starting rotation has continued to perform pretty well. Outside of the opening day defeat the Pirates have been in every game thanks to their starting pitching. Hopefully the pitching doesn’t deteriorate when the bats decide to wake up.
• Fresh off seeing him in person here in Pittsburgh last week is it time to start calling Troy Tulowitzki the best player in baseball? Well let me be the first! You remember when the national outlets start talking about this guy as the best player in the game that you heard it here first. Going back to last September, “Tulo” has hit 22 home runs in his last 42 games while playing the best shortstop in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy so we can all enjoy a full season’s worth.
• The guy Tulowitzki reminds me of is a young Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez, by the way, is far from done himself. About the only player in baseball matching what the Rockies shortstop is doing is the former best player in the game. Tulowitzki is first and Rodriguez is second in the majors in OPS and nobody else is close through the early part of the season.
• How about that Masters finish on Sunday? That was quite possibly the best golf on television I have seen with so many guys hitting important shot after important shot. It very well might have been the return of Tiger Woods as well. For more on that, I know I can’t say it any better than the Sports Guy did, so I will just link to his column: Bill Simmons
• I was going to post my NBA playoff predictions as part of the Smorgasbord but I will hold off and have a separate post going up Saturday morning. Check back then to see who I like in the opening round and a little commentary on the foregone conclusion that Derrick Rose is the NBA MVP this year…
• The Penguins played what quite possibly was their best game of the season since Crosby’s injury in game one. It was hard to tell if the Penguins were able to raise their level of play that much or if the Lighting were a little shell-shocked by the intensity of the playoffs. Either way, if the Penguins continue to get that kind of play from Marc-Andre Fleury in net and the power play continues to show some life, the Pens are going to be a tough out for anyone even without Sid. With him, I think they just might become the favorite once again.
• Six of the eight teams I predicted to move on in round one won their opening game. I am not sure if that is good or if missing the two upsets everyone was calling for is bad. It is still early, however, and winning game one doesn’t mean a whole lot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hopefully the Penguins remember that.
• So much for that great Pirates’ start. After losing five of their last six, the Buccos are now 5-7 and trail four other teams in the NL Central. Sure the standings, and even the records, are not very important this time of the year but it would have been nice if this team could have sustained some momentum from the strong early start.
• The good news is that the Pirates starting rotation has continued to perform pretty well. Outside of the opening day defeat the Pirates have been in every game thanks to their starting pitching. Hopefully the pitching doesn’t deteriorate when the bats decide to wake up.
• Fresh off seeing him in person here in Pittsburgh last week is it time to start calling Troy Tulowitzki the best player in baseball? Well let me be the first! You remember when the national outlets start talking about this guy as the best player in the game that you heard it here first. Going back to last September, “Tulo” has hit 22 home runs in his last 42 games while playing the best shortstop in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy so we can all enjoy a full season’s worth.
• The guy Tulowitzki reminds me of is a young Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez, by the way, is far from done himself. About the only player in baseball matching what the Rockies shortstop is doing is the former best player in the game. Tulowitzki is first and Rodriguez is second in the majors in OPS and nobody else is close through the early part of the season.
• How about that Masters finish on Sunday? That was quite possibly the best golf on television I have seen with so many guys hitting important shot after important shot. It very well might have been the return of Tiger Woods as well. For more on that, I know I can’t say it any better than the Sports Guy did, so I will just link to his column: Bill Simmons
• I was going to post my NBA playoff predictions as part of the Smorgasbord but I will hold off and have a separate post going up Saturday morning. Check back then to see who I like in the opening round and a little commentary on the foregone conclusion that Derrick Rose is the NBA MVP this year…
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
NHL Playoffs Preview and Predictions
I have a range of topics I need to hit on including the opening couple of weeks of the baseball season, the NBA MVP and Tiger’s charge on Sunday but I will save those for a smorgasbord on Friday because today is the start of the most grueling postseason in sports, the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hockey’s postseason is two months of drag-it-out, knock-you-down, insanely intense hockey that I couldn’t do justice with words.
This year’s playoffs is as wide open as I can ever remember it being and that is saying something when just last year we had the number seven and eight seeds playing in the Eastern Conference Finals. For proof, just look at the top two seeds from each conference; Washington, Philadelphia, Vancouver and San Jose. When a team from Philadelphia (not named the Phillies) inspires the most postseason confidence you just know this thing is up for grabs. Let’s get into a little preview of each of the eight opening round series and my prediction for each. Let’s just say that I’m not exactly overflowing with confidence on these selections either.
In case you are wondering, I am going with the San Jose Sharks to hoist the Stanley Cup this year. In what has been a crazy year already, why not top it off with the Sharks finally getting over their postseason failures to claim their first Cup in the franchise’s history.
Eastern Conference
#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Tampa Bay
We will kick it right off with the prediction most of you are probably waiting for (and will probably quit reading afterwards) but I am going with the Penguins in six. My reason is quite simple: Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins have a distinct advantage in net this series and probably sport the league’s best defensive unit in front of their net minder. The Lighting have the prohibitive advantage on special teams, although the Penguins’ power play has shown some small glimmers of hope lately, which is an enormous factor in the postseason but the difference in this one will be Fleury in net for the Penguins against 41-year-old Dwayne Roloson. Roloson may be 41, but he has only 33 postseason games under his belt for a simple reason, he’s just not that good. The Penguins, who for now we have to go with the assumption that Crosby will not play, should be able to sneak enough pucks past Roloson to escape the first round and hope that Sid can return for the Eastern semis. I do fear a game seven in this series, however, as the Penguins simply cannot match the star power of Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos without Crosby in the line-up. That could spell disaster if the Penguins cannot jump out early on the Lightning and put this series away in five or six games. Again, Penguins in six.
#1 Washington vs. #8 New York
Pretty interesting match-up here when you think about the Capitals recent postseason struggles combined with the Rangers 3-1 series lead this year, including a 6-0 victory the last time these teams met. Still, you have to think Washington’s focus on their defensive play during the regular season will pay off somewhat in the playoffs. Even if it doesn’t, the Caps still have too much firepower for the Rangers with Ovechkin, Semin and the gang. Capitals in five.
#2 Philadelphia vs. #7 Buffalo
Buffalo seems to be the popular upset pick among many NHL experts but I have a hard time seeing the defending Eastern Conference champs go down without a fight. Chris Pronger is expected back to man the Philadelphia blue line after missing a month with a wrist injury and his playoff resume is well documented. It is not a coincidence that the Flyers escaped their own postseason demons last year after acquiring Pronger in the offseason. Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller has also missed time recently with an undisclosed upper body injury and playing the Flyers with their scoring and depth up front is no way to ease back in. I think the Flyers’ lackluster play over the last month of the season was a product of coasting towards the playoffs and they will come out strong now that they are here. Flyers in seven.
#3 Boston vs. #6 Montreal
Here is the upset I like. Montreal is a playoff tested team with depth and speed up front and a goaltender in Carey Price who I think is every bit as good as Boston’s Tim Thomas. Personally I think Thomas is a bit overrated because of the style in which the Bruins play and their physical defense. This series will probably come down to the Bruins ability to stay out of the penalty box. My guess is that they do not, and that Montreal’s tremendous power play takes advantage. Canadiens in six.
Western Conference
#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Chicago
When I talk about how wide open these playoffs are, this series is exactly what I am referring to. Here we have the defending Stanley Cup champs taking on what was by far the best team in the NHL during the regular season in the opening round of the playoffs. The question here is if Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s fantastic goaltender, can shake off some of his past big game failures and carry this team past the second round of the playoffs. I think the Blackhawks and their young studs give the Canucks everything they can handle but the Sedin twins will be too much and the Canucks prevail. Canucks in seven.
#2 San Jose vs. #7 Los Angeles
If you read the opening paragraph you know who I am going with here. This is the perfect first round match-up to get the Sharks rolling as they take on a young Kings team who will be without their best player, center Anze Kopitar. Sharks in five.
#3 Detroit vs. #6 Phoenix Phoenix has the advantage in net and the Wings could be without Henrik Zetterberg for the beginning of the series or even more but I just can’t see the upstart Coyotes taking down the veteran Red Wings. It really wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Phoenix pull this upset but I think Detroit’s power play will be too much and they find a way to win the series on home ice in game seven. Red Wings in seven.
#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Nashville
This should be a fantastic series pitting the Ducks’ fantastic forwards against the Predators strong defensive balance led by Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and goaltender Pekka Rinne. Nashville finished second in the NHL in goals against while Anaheim had three forwards in the top 11 and five in the top 26 in the NHL scoring leaders. Conversely, Anaheim will most likely be starting Ray Emery in net with top goalie Jonas Hiller on the shelf while Nashville has only outscored one other playoff team in either conference. The winner of this series will probably be whatever team can dictate the style and tempo. With such contrasting yet strong teams, I see this one going the distance where Anaheim will have home-ice advantage. Ducks in seven.
This year’s playoffs is as wide open as I can ever remember it being and that is saying something when just last year we had the number seven and eight seeds playing in the Eastern Conference Finals. For proof, just look at the top two seeds from each conference; Washington, Philadelphia, Vancouver and San Jose. When a team from Philadelphia (not named the Phillies) inspires the most postseason confidence you just know this thing is up for grabs. Let’s get into a little preview of each of the eight opening round series and my prediction for each. Let’s just say that I’m not exactly overflowing with confidence on these selections either.
In case you are wondering, I am going with the San Jose Sharks to hoist the Stanley Cup this year. In what has been a crazy year already, why not top it off with the Sharks finally getting over their postseason failures to claim their first Cup in the franchise’s history.
Eastern Conference
#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Tampa Bay
We will kick it right off with the prediction most of you are probably waiting for (and will probably quit reading afterwards) but I am going with the Penguins in six. My reason is quite simple: Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins have a distinct advantage in net this series and probably sport the league’s best defensive unit in front of their net minder. The Lighting have the prohibitive advantage on special teams, although the Penguins’ power play has shown some small glimmers of hope lately, which is an enormous factor in the postseason but the difference in this one will be Fleury in net for the Penguins against 41-year-old Dwayne Roloson. Roloson may be 41, but he has only 33 postseason games under his belt for a simple reason, he’s just not that good. The Penguins, who for now we have to go with the assumption that Crosby will not play, should be able to sneak enough pucks past Roloson to escape the first round and hope that Sid can return for the Eastern semis. I do fear a game seven in this series, however, as the Penguins simply cannot match the star power of Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos without Crosby in the line-up. That could spell disaster if the Penguins cannot jump out early on the Lightning and put this series away in five or six games. Again, Penguins in six.
#1 Washington vs. #8 New York
Pretty interesting match-up here when you think about the Capitals recent postseason struggles combined with the Rangers 3-1 series lead this year, including a 6-0 victory the last time these teams met. Still, you have to think Washington’s focus on their defensive play during the regular season will pay off somewhat in the playoffs. Even if it doesn’t, the Caps still have too much firepower for the Rangers with Ovechkin, Semin and the gang. Capitals in five.
#2 Philadelphia vs. #7 Buffalo
Buffalo seems to be the popular upset pick among many NHL experts but I have a hard time seeing the defending Eastern Conference champs go down without a fight. Chris Pronger is expected back to man the Philadelphia blue line after missing a month with a wrist injury and his playoff resume is well documented. It is not a coincidence that the Flyers escaped their own postseason demons last year after acquiring Pronger in the offseason. Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller has also missed time recently with an undisclosed upper body injury and playing the Flyers with their scoring and depth up front is no way to ease back in. I think the Flyers’ lackluster play over the last month of the season was a product of coasting towards the playoffs and they will come out strong now that they are here. Flyers in seven.
#3 Boston vs. #6 Montreal
Here is the upset I like. Montreal is a playoff tested team with depth and speed up front and a goaltender in Carey Price who I think is every bit as good as Boston’s Tim Thomas. Personally I think Thomas is a bit overrated because of the style in which the Bruins play and their physical defense. This series will probably come down to the Bruins ability to stay out of the penalty box. My guess is that they do not, and that Montreal’s tremendous power play takes advantage. Canadiens in six.
Western Conference
#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Chicago
When I talk about how wide open these playoffs are, this series is exactly what I am referring to. Here we have the defending Stanley Cup champs taking on what was by far the best team in the NHL during the regular season in the opening round of the playoffs. The question here is if Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s fantastic goaltender, can shake off some of his past big game failures and carry this team past the second round of the playoffs. I think the Blackhawks and their young studs give the Canucks everything they can handle but the Sedin twins will be too much and the Canucks prevail. Canucks in seven.
#2 San Jose vs. #7 Los Angeles
If you read the opening paragraph you know who I am going with here. This is the perfect first round match-up to get the Sharks rolling as they take on a young Kings team who will be without their best player, center Anze Kopitar. Sharks in five.
#3 Detroit vs. #6 Phoenix Phoenix has the advantage in net and the Wings could be without Henrik Zetterberg for the beginning of the series or even more but I just can’t see the upstart Coyotes taking down the veteran Red Wings. It really wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Phoenix pull this upset but I think Detroit’s power play will be too much and they find a way to win the series on home ice in game seven. Red Wings in seven.
#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Nashville
This should be a fantastic series pitting the Ducks’ fantastic forwards against the Predators strong defensive balance led by Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and goaltender Pekka Rinne. Nashville finished second in the NHL in goals against while Anaheim had three forwards in the top 11 and five in the top 26 in the NHL scoring leaders. Conversely, Anaheim will most likely be starting Ray Emery in net with top goalie Jonas Hiller on the shelf while Nashville has only outscored one other playoff team in either conference. The winner of this series will probably be whatever team can dictate the style and tempo. With such contrasting yet strong teams, I see this one going the distance where Anaheim will have home-ice advantage. Ducks in seven.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Encouraging Signs for Pens
I have had this column written for a couple weeks now but kept holding off expecting bigger and better news to break on Sidney Crosby’s return as well as the proper time to post it to comment on the Penguins’ playoff positioning. Well if I wait any longer the playoffs are going to start and before you know it someone is hoisting the Stanley Cup over their head. So screw it, we still don’t know when or even if Crosby is going to return and the Penguins can still finish anywhere from first to fifth in the Eastern Conference standings but no matter the outcome of either situation, there has certainly been some encouraging signs for the club lately.
First, and it is a bit dated at this time but still very newsworthy is the three year contract extension the Penguins rewarded Coach Dan Bylsma with a few weeks back, and deservedly so! What’s remarkable is that it seems like “Disco Dan” just took over the reins from Michel Therrien and he is already just a little over one full season away from being the Penguins’ longest tenured coach in their 40 plus year history. See, hockey coaches usually don’t last long. The Penguins franchise record is held by Red Kelly, who coached a total of 274 games from 1969-1973. Michel Therrien is second with 272 games. For those that don’t feel like doing the math that is barely over three full seasons in which the Penguins’ longest tenured coach was in charge. That probably means Bylsma’s contract extension doesn’t ensure his job is safe but it does show that GM Ray Shero believes his style of play and his personality are a perfect fit with this team. I couldn’t agree more. With Shero and Bylsma leading the organization for the foreseeable future it is an encouraging sign for the long term success of the team.
Even more encouraging for both the short term and long term good of the franchise is that Sidney Crosby has resumed skating again and even joining his teammates in pregame skates. Sure, it is still early in his attempt at returning from the post-concussion symptoms that has kept him out since January but any good news is welcome when it comes to the franchise’s most important player. Crosby has yet to partake in contact drills but with all sources saying how great Crosby has looked in his current routine we shouldn’t expect for it to be long before he takes part in a full contact practice. If Crosby can clear that hurdle, and I fully expect him to do so at this point, there is a pretty good chance that he could return at some point during the playoffs.
You might remember that it wasn’t long ago that I said the Penguins had no shot at winning the Stanley Cup this year without Crosby in the line-up. I still hold that to be true, but the last and most encouraging sign for at least this year has been the team’s play of late. Marc-Andre Fleury has taken his game to a new level, truly becoming a franchise goaltender. The defense continues to play well and the Penguins are getting scoring contributions from a number of different players up front. The team won’t win the Stanley Cup without Crosby because they are still unable to put the puck in the net with enough regularity, and that has a ton to do with their truly dreadful power-play over the past month, but they have proven they have the ability to steal a round or two and possibly give Crosby more time to make it back if he isn’t ready at the outset of the playoffs.
The Penguins have two regular season games remaining and a lot is still to be decided but the more important season is now in clear view. The Stanley Cup playoffs are just around the corner and the Penguins have a lot of encouraging signs as the playoffs approach both for this year’s team and the foreseeable future. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed for Crosby’s return, whenever that may be.
First, and it is a bit dated at this time but still very newsworthy is the three year contract extension the Penguins rewarded Coach Dan Bylsma with a few weeks back, and deservedly so! What’s remarkable is that it seems like “Disco Dan” just took over the reins from Michel Therrien and he is already just a little over one full season away from being the Penguins’ longest tenured coach in their 40 plus year history. See, hockey coaches usually don’t last long. The Penguins franchise record is held by Red Kelly, who coached a total of 274 games from 1969-1973. Michel Therrien is second with 272 games. For those that don’t feel like doing the math that is barely over three full seasons in which the Penguins’ longest tenured coach was in charge. That probably means Bylsma’s contract extension doesn’t ensure his job is safe but it does show that GM Ray Shero believes his style of play and his personality are a perfect fit with this team. I couldn’t agree more. With Shero and Bylsma leading the organization for the foreseeable future it is an encouraging sign for the long term success of the team.
Even more encouraging for both the short term and long term good of the franchise is that Sidney Crosby has resumed skating again and even joining his teammates in pregame skates. Sure, it is still early in his attempt at returning from the post-concussion symptoms that has kept him out since January but any good news is welcome when it comes to the franchise’s most important player. Crosby has yet to partake in contact drills but with all sources saying how great Crosby has looked in his current routine we shouldn’t expect for it to be long before he takes part in a full contact practice. If Crosby can clear that hurdle, and I fully expect him to do so at this point, there is a pretty good chance that he could return at some point during the playoffs.
You might remember that it wasn’t long ago that I said the Penguins had no shot at winning the Stanley Cup this year without Crosby in the line-up. I still hold that to be true, but the last and most encouraging sign for at least this year has been the team’s play of late. Marc-Andre Fleury has taken his game to a new level, truly becoming a franchise goaltender. The defense continues to play well and the Penguins are getting scoring contributions from a number of different players up front. The team won’t win the Stanley Cup without Crosby because they are still unable to put the puck in the net with enough regularity, and that has a ton to do with their truly dreadful power-play over the past month, but they have proven they have the ability to steal a round or two and possibly give Crosby more time to make it back if he isn’t ready at the outset of the playoffs.
The Penguins have two regular season games remaining and a lot is still to be decided but the more important season is now in clear view. The Stanley Cup playoffs are just around the corner and the Penguins have a lot of encouraging signs as the playoffs approach both for this year’s team and the foreseeable future. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed for Crosby’s return, whenever that may be.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Pirates Should Improve, But How Much
Your 2011 Pittsburgh Baseball Club got off to a nice start, winning two out of three games in Chicago over the weekend. Of course, winning two of your first three is nothing to write home about but for a team that won a total of 17 games on the road last year, winning two out of your first three away from PNC Park can be taken as a positive sign.
We all know about the young power pitchers down on the farm, the fantastic draft the Pirates had last year, the Pirates’ future catcher in Tony Sanchez and all of the positive steps towards the future that the organization peppers us with about building a winner long term, but let’s forget about that for today and focus on this year’s team. How do we expect this year’s team to do and should we expect any improvement on the dreadful season the Pirates put together last year?
Thursday on the blog you probably noticed that I picked the Buccos to win 70 games this year. That is probably a little optimistic, but with the Vegas line being at 67 wins I do not think 70 wins is overly optimistic or out of the realm of possibility. Sure, improving 13 games over the previous season is no easy task but improvement from last year is almost inevitable. It is very hard for a professional baseball team to lose 100 games in a season; to lose 105 is downright embarrassing. Even if the Pirates had not improved their talent level at all, I would have still expected a 5-7 game improvement by pure statistical reasoning. The Pirates did, however, make some meaningful improvements to the line-up and their pitching can’t possibly be any worse than it was a year ago. Let’s take a little closer look at the ballclub now and why I think 70 wins is a real possibility.
The Pirates opening day line-up looked like this:
LF Jose Tabata
2B Neil Walker
CF Andrew McCutchen
1B Lyle Overbay
3B Pedro Alvarez
C Ryan Doumit
RF Garrett Jones
SS Ronny Cedeno
I am not going to dive into the advanced metrics of this line-up (email me if you would like to see some of the numbers), but believe me when I tell you that this line-up has the potential to be a middle of the pack run producer in the National League, especially against right-handed pitching. Against left-handers, the Pirates will sub Matt Diaz in right field for the lefty Jones and will play catcher Chris Snyder over Doumit when he gets healthy. That line-up is not as good as the one running out there against righties but it is still strong enough for the Pirates to have a league average offense. That is a far cry from last year when the team was stuck with Aki Iwamura, Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge taking meaningful at-bats for half the season.
One key for this Pirates line-up is for Manager Clint Hurdle to stick to the platoon system. It gives the Pirates the strongest possibility to out-produce the individual parts they have. Too often managers stray from their original platoon systems because one guy gets hot, one guy gets cold, etc. but for the Pirates to maximize their players’ abilities, it is on Hurdle to put them in the right positions to succeed and that means sticking to the platoons.
Defensively, the Pirates were the worst team in the majors last year. The bad news is that the Pirates will have much of the same team in the field this year that it finished last year with. The good news is that most of the Pirates are young and defense has shown to dramatically improve with experience. McCutchen should be much improved in center with another year of experience, ditto for Tabata. Neil Walker can only get better and being that last year was his first season playing second base and he is a great athlete, I think a big improvement is in store. Lyle Overbay is a marked improvement over the myriad of guys the Pirates ran out there last year at first and Ronny Cedeno should improve with another year under his belt as well. At catcher, Doumit is still a liability but Snyder is known for his defensive ability and should bring a little stability when he’s behind the plate. Nobody will mistake Pedro for Brooks Robinson or the right-field platoon situation of Jones/Diaz for Roberto Clemente, but if the Pirates can be solid at the other positions there should at least be a noticeable improvement in the defense.
That was most of the good news surrounding the 2011 Pirates but now we get to the pitching. I guess the silver lining with the Buccos’ pitching is that it cannot possibly be any worse than it was last year when the staff allowed the most runs in the major leagues. The other good news, I guess, is that Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald and Charlie Morton appear to at least have the raw stuff to become legitimate major league starters and Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm would make most teams’ staffs as 4th or 5th starters. The problem for the Pirates pitching staff is that they have no legitimate ace, or really even a #2 or #3 starter for that matter. All five starters look like they could be legitimate major league starters but no more than a 4th or 5th starter on a good team. I do see improvement coming from Ohlendorf and McDonald and the diehard fans are sure to hold on to hope that Charlie Morton and his “electric stuff” develop, so the possibility of at least an OK starting rotation is possible. If the Pirates can get pitching on par with at least the bottom half of the league and not have clearly the worst staff in baseball, they can win their share of games with an improved line-up.
All together I see a year of improvement for the Pirates and at least the beginning of a basis to compete a few years down the line. If nothing else, this year provides an opportunity to see how Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and the young starters continue to develop. If the proper steps are really being taken by Pirates management to build a contender in a few years, the biggest key will be the development of the players currently on the roster. I expect improvement, but how much is the question.
We all know about the young power pitchers down on the farm, the fantastic draft the Pirates had last year, the Pirates’ future catcher in Tony Sanchez and all of the positive steps towards the future that the organization peppers us with about building a winner long term, but let’s forget about that for today and focus on this year’s team. How do we expect this year’s team to do and should we expect any improvement on the dreadful season the Pirates put together last year?
Thursday on the blog you probably noticed that I picked the Buccos to win 70 games this year. That is probably a little optimistic, but with the Vegas line being at 67 wins I do not think 70 wins is overly optimistic or out of the realm of possibility. Sure, improving 13 games over the previous season is no easy task but improvement from last year is almost inevitable. It is very hard for a professional baseball team to lose 100 games in a season; to lose 105 is downright embarrassing. Even if the Pirates had not improved their talent level at all, I would have still expected a 5-7 game improvement by pure statistical reasoning. The Pirates did, however, make some meaningful improvements to the line-up and their pitching can’t possibly be any worse than it was a year ago. Let’s take a little closer look at the ballclub now and why I think 70 wins is a real possibility.
The Pirates opening day line-up looked like this:
LF Jose Tabata
2B Neil Walker
CF Andrew McCutchen
1B Lyle Overbay
3B Pedro Alvarez
C Ryan Doumit
RF Garrett Jones
SS Ronny Cedeno
I am not going to dive into the advanced metrics of this line-up (email me if you would like to see some of the numbers), but believe me when I tell you that this line-up has the potential to be a middle of the pack run producer in the National League, especially against right-handed pitching. Against left-handers, the Pirates will sub Matt Diaz in right field for the lefty Jones and will play catcher Chris Snyder over Doumit when he gets healthy. That line-up is not as good as the one running out there against righties but it is still strong enough for the Pirates to have a league average offense. That is a far cry from last year when the team was stuck with Aki Iwamura, Jeff Clement and Lastings Milledge taking meaningful at-bats for half the season.
One key for this Pirates line-up is for Manager Clint Hurdle to stick to the platoon system. It gives the Pirates the strongest possibility to out-produce the individual parts they have. Too often managers stray from their original platoon systems because one guy gets hot, one guy gets cold, etc. but for the Pirates to maximize their players’ abilities, it is on Hurdle to put them in the right positions to succeed and that means sticking to the platoons.
Defensively, the Pirates were the worst team in the majors last year. The bad news is that the Pirates will have much of the same team in the field this year that it finished last year with. The good news is that most of the Pirates are young and defense has shown to dramatically improve with experience. McCutchen should be much improved in center with another year of experience, ditto for Tabata. Neil Walker can only get better and being that last year was his first season playing second base and he is a great athlete, I think a big improvement is in store. Lyle Overbay is a marked improvement over the myriad of guys the Pirates ran out there last year at first and Ronny Cedeno should improve with another year under his belt as well. At catcher, Doumit is still a liability but Snyder is known for his defensive ability and should bring a little stability when he’s behind the plate. Nobody will mistake Pedro for Brooks Robinson or the right-field platoon situation of Jones/Diaz for Roberto Clemente, but if the Pirates can be solid at the other positions there should at least be a noticeable improvement in the defense.
That was most of the good news surrounding the 2011 Pirates but now we get to the pitching. I guess the silver lining with the Buccos’ pitching is that it cannot possibly be any worse than it was last year when the staff allowed the most runs in the major leagues. The other good news, I guess, is that Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald and Charlie Morton appear to at least have the raw stuff to become legitimate major league starters and Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm would make most teams’ staffs as 4th or 5th starters. The problem for the Pirates pitching staff is that they have no legitimate ace, or really even a #2 or #3 starter for that matter. All five starters look like they could be legitimate major league starters but no more than a 4th or 5th starter on a good team. I do see improvement coming from Ohlendorf and McDonald and the diehard fans are sure to hold on to hope that Charlie Morton and his “electric stuff” develop, so the possibility of at least an OK starting rotation is possible. If the Pirates can get pitching on par with at least the bottom half of the league and not have clearly the worst staff in baseball, they can win their share of games with an improved line-up.
All together I see a year of improvement for the Pirates and at least the beginning of a basis to compete a few years down the line. If nothing else, this year provides an opportunity to see how Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and the young starters continue to develop. If the proper steps are really being taken by Pirates management to build a contender in a few years, the biggest key will be the development of the players currently on the roster. I expect improvement, but how much is the question.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Opening Day 2011!
The 2011 Major League Baseball season is upon us and every year it seems that baseball season jumps out at us sooner and sooner. This year that IS the case as the season begins four days earlier than it has in years past. That just means more snow delays and 30 degree games in the North but hey, who cares, baseball is back!
Plenty of big names switched teams in the offseason with Cliff Lee teaming up with the already phenomenal Phillies rotation, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez joining the Red Sox, Adam Dunn to the White Sox, Vlad Guerrero and other veterans joined the youngsters in Baltimore, Manny and Johnny Damon headed south to the Rays and even the lowly Nationals spent big money to acquire Jayson Werth in free agency.
The noticeable trend there with the exception of Lee, Werth and Zach Greinke who was traded to Milwaukee, is that most of the big names either went to or stayed in the American League. In the National League, the biggest news was probably the inability of the Cardinals to lock up Albert Pujols to a long term deal. The Dodgers, Giants, Reds and Braves were just a few of the other contenders in the NL who remained relatively the same team from last season. It should be interesting to see how those strategies pan out and how the players who did join new teams impact the pennant races. Here is my quick preview and predictions, division by division, for the 2011 MLB season:
American League East
While the Red Sox were upgrading their line-up and defense and the Rays were bringing in veterans to stabilize their line-up, the biggest story in the offseason in the AL East was the Yankees inability to land Cliff Lee or another top-tier pitcher to stabilize their rotation. Still, the Yankees have the line-up and a lights out bullpen that should cover for the lack of depth in their rotation that should have them fighting for the division with the Red Sox. The Rays would be the favorite in pretty much every other division in baseball but are relegated to third in the lopsided East. Don’t rule these guys out, however, as the young arms continue to develop and Evan Longoria is one of the best players in baseball. If the Yanks or Sox suffer injuries or slip up at all, the Rays will be right there to pounce. Both Toronto and Baltimore are also mightily improved but in this division that hardly matters. Put the Blue Jays in most any other division and they are competing for the wild card at worst. Same with the Orioles, who continue to develop the great young arms they have in the system and added a few bats to stabilize the line-up.
Boston 94-68
New York 92 -70
Tampa Bay 88-74
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 77-85
American League Central
We should probably just pencil in the Minnesota Twins for 90 wins and the division crown because no matter how much we try to overanalyze this division, that is what seems to happen every year. Minnesota has won the division six times in the last ten years, averaging nearly 89 wins per season over that stretch. The Twins hope to have a healthy Justin Morneau back from his post-concussion symptoms to help stabilize an offense that should be able to score enough runs to go along with a deep pitching staff. I love the addition of Adam Dunn to the White Sox line-up and with their pitching depth and strong bullpen, Chicago should give the Twins everything they can handle for the division title. The Tigers are the third team that could compete for the division but they would probably need many things to break right and another MVP type season from Miguel Cabrera. Cleveland and Kansas City are by far the worst teams in the American League, although the Royals seem to have plenty of talent on the farm that could begin to arrive this year.
Minnesota 90-72
Chicago 88-74
Detroit 82-80
Kansas City 64-98
Cleveland 63-99
American League West
Texas’s inability to resign Cliff Lee probably opens this division back up to the fantastic pitching coming from the rest of the contenders but the Rangers still have the West’s best line-up and enough pitching to get by. The addition of Adrian Beltre bolsters their already outstanding line-up and helps sure up a terrific defensive infield. If the Rangers’ pitching falters, however, Anaheim is probably next in line with solid pitching depth and enough pop on offense, pending the healthy return of Kendrys Morales, to challenge. Oakland has a fantastic young pitching rotation led by Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill but still may lack the offense to truly contend. Seattle has the AL’s best pitcher in Felix Hernandez but not much else.
Texas 87-75
Anaheim 83-79
Oakland 82-80
Seattle 74-88
National League East
Cole Hamels was the ace of the staff when the Phillies won the World Series just three years ago. Now he’s the #4 pitcher on baseball’s best pitching staff since the mid-90’s Braves. Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels….just sick, and Joe Blanton isn’t such a bad #5. The Phillies offense is not as potent as it once was, and Chase Utley’s health is a huge concernt, but the Phils still have enough to win the most games in the National League pending the starters’ health. I have the Braves penciled in as the NL Wild Card as we sit today but if Jayson Heyward emerges as a star, Freddie Freeman holds his own as a rookie and Chipper starts to resemble the Chipper of old, the Braves could be right there with Philadelphia. If those things don’t happen, however, the Braves could find themselves in a dogfight with the Marlins and the rest of the NL Central and West contenders for that fourth playoff spot. Speaking of the Marlins, they could easily be this year’s surprise contenders. A solid offense led by Hanley Ramirez and young guns Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison combined with a sneaky good pitching rotation led by Josh Johnson could be enough to push Florida towards the top of the NL standings. New York still has Wright, Reyes and Beltran but no pitching and Washington eagerly awaits the return of Stephen Strasburg and the arrival of Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia 95-67
Atlanta 90 -72
Florida 85-77
New York 78-84
Washington 62-100
National League Central
The NL Central is probably the hardest division to forecast and it has nothing to do with the bottom two teams. If things break right for them I could see Cincinnati, Milwaukee or St. Louis running away with the division or even Chicago finding a way to win it, although that is a major long shot with their pitching. Conversely, if things break wrong for any of those teams I could see them falling out of the race by the All-Star break. In the end, I think we are looking at an extremely tight race between the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals with the Reds pitching depth ultimately pushing them over the top. I loved the Brewers acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum and their go for it now attitude, an approach that no other team in this wide open division took. As for the Cards, they were probably the favorite until the season ending injury to ace Adam Wainwright. As bad as the Buccos are, and I will have a more in-depth preview tomorrow, I would still rather be in their organization’s position than that of the Astros.
Cincinnati 88-74
Milwaukee 87 -75
St. Louis 85-77
Chicago 81-81
Pittsburgh 70-92
Houston 68-94
National League West
I’m predicting my first real upset here with the Los Angeles Dodgers narrowly edging out the defending World Series champs for the division crown. I just like the make-up of this Dodgers team with the arms of Kershaw, Billingsley and Lilly leading the rotation and a big bounce back year from Matt Kemp. The Giants will be strong again led by their fantastic pitching staff but I think they overachieved a bit with the bats last year and could suffer a bit from the age-old disease known as World Series hangover. Colorado should be in the mix as well if Troy Tulowitski can stay healthy and their starters continue where they left off last year. As for the Padres and Diamondbacks….there’s always next year.
Los Angeles 89-73
San Francisco 88 -74
Colorado 84-78
San Diego 69-93
Arizona 65-97
MVP
AL: Robinson Cano
NL: Ryan Braun
Cy Young
AL: Felix Hernandez
NL: Clayton Kershaw
Rookie of the Year
AL: Jeremy Hellickson
NL: Freddie Freeman
Coach of the Year
AL: Ozzie Guillen
NL: Don Mattingly
AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas
New York over Minnesota
New York over Boston
NL Playoffs
Philadelphia over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Los Angeles
Atlanta over Philadelphia
World Series
New York over Atlanta
Plenty of big names switched teams in the offseason with Cliff Lee teaming up with the already phenomenal Phillies rotation, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez joining the Red Sox, Adam Dunn to the White Sox, Vlad Guerrero and other veterans joined the youngsters in Baltimore, Manny and Johnny Damon headed south to the Rays and even the lowly Nationals spent big money to acquire Jayson Werth in free agency.
The noticeable trend there with the exception of Lee, Werth and Zach Greinke who was traded to Milwaukee, is that most of the big names either went to or stayed in the American League. In the National League, the biggest news was probably the inability of the Cardinals to lock up Albert Pujols to a long term deal. The Dodgers, Giants, Reds and Braves were just a few of the other contenders in the NL who remained relatively the same team from last season. It should be interesting to see how those strategies pan out and how the players who did join new teams impact the pennant races. Here is my quick preview and predictions, division by division, for the 2011 MLB season:
American League East
While the Red Sox were upgrading their line-up and defense and the Rays were bringing in veterans to stabilize their line-up, the biggest story in the offseason in the AL East was the Yankees inability to land Cliff Lee or another top-tier pitcher to stabilize their rotation. Still, the Yankees have the line-up and a lights out bullpen that should cover for the lack of depth in their rotation that should have them fighting for the division with the Red Sox. The Rays would be the favorite in pretty much every other division in baseball but are relegated to third in the lopsided East. Don’t rule these guys out, however, as the young arms continue to develop and Evan Longoria is one of the best players in baseball. If the Yanks or Sox suffer injuries or slip up at all, the Rays will be right there to pounce. Both Toronto and Baltimore are also mightily improved but in this division that hardly matters. Put the Blue Jays in most any other division and they are competing for the wild card at worst. Same with the Orioles, who continue to develop the great young arms they have in the system and added a few bats to stabilize the line-up.
Boston 94-68
New York 92 -70
Tampa Bay 88-74
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 77-85
American League Central
We should probably just pencil in the Minnesota Twins for 90 wins and the division crown because no matter how much we try to overanalyze this division, that is what seems to happen every year. Minnesota has won the division six times in the last ten years, averaging nearly 89 wins per season over that stretch. The Twins hope to have a healthy Justin Morneau back from his post-concussion symptoms to help stabilize an offense that should be able to score enough runs to go along with a deep pitching staff. I love the addition of Adam Dunn to the White Sox line-up and with their pitching depth and strong bullpen, Chicago should give the Twins everything they can handle for the division title. The Tigers are the third team that could compete for the division but they would probably need many things to break right and another MVP type season from Miguel Cabrera. Cleveland and Kansas City are by far the worst teams in the American League, although the Royals seem to have plenty of talent on the farm that could begin to arrive this year.
Minnesota 90-72
Chicago 88-74
Detroit 82-80
Kansas City 64-98
Cleveland 63-99
American League West
Texas’s inability to resign Cliff Lee probably opens this division back up to the fantastic pitching coming from the rest of the contenders but the Rangers still have the West’s best line-up and enough pitching to get by. The addition of Adrian Beltre bolsters their already outstanding line-up and helps sure up a terrific defensive infield. If the Rangers’ pitching falters, however, Anaheim is probably next in line with solid pitching depth and enough pop on offense, pending the healthy return of Kendrys Morales, to challenge. Oakland has a fantastic young pitching rotation led by Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill but still may lack the offense to truly contend. Seattle has the AL’s best pitcher in Felix Hernandez but not much else.
Texas 87-75
Anaheim 83-79
Oakland 82-80
Seattle 74-88
National League East
Cole Hamels was the ace of the staff when the Phillies won the World Series just three years ago. Now he’s the #4 pitcher on baseball’s best pitching staff since the mid-90’s Braves. Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels….just sick, and Joe Blanton isn’t such a bad #5. The Phillies offense is not as potent as it once was, and Chase Utley’s health is a huge concernt, but the Phils still have enough to win the most games in the National League pending the starters’ health. I have the Braves penciled in as the NL Wild Card as we sit today but if Jayson Heyward emerges as a star, Freddie Freeman holds his own as a rookie and Chipper starts to resemble the Chipper of old, the Braves could be right there with Philadelphia. If those things don’t happen, however, the Braves could find themselves in a dogfight with the Marlins and the rest of the NL Central and West contenders for that fourth playoff spot. Speaking of the Marlins, they could easily be this year’s surprise contenders. A solid offense led by Hanley Ramirez and young guns Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison combined with a sneaky good pitching rotation led by Josh Johnson could be enough to push Florida towards the top of the NL standings. New York still has Wright, Reyes and Beltran but no pitching and Washington eagerly awaits the return of Stephen Strasburg and the arrival of Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia 95-67
Atlanta 90 -72
Florida 85-77
New York 78-84
Washington 62-100
National League Central
The NL Central is probably the hardest division to forecast and it has nothing to do with the bottom two teams. If things break right for them I could see Cincinnati, Milwaukee or St. Louis running away with the division or even Chicago finding a way to win it, although that is a major long shot with their pitching. Conversely, if things break wrong for any of those teams I could see them falling out of the race by the All-Star break. In the end, I think we are looking at an extremely tight race between the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals with the Reds pitching depth ultimately pushing them over the top. I loved the Brewers acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum and their go for it now attitude, an approach that no other team in this wide open division took. As for the Cards, they were probably the favorite until the season ending injury to ace Adam Wainwright. As bad as the Buccos are, and I will have a more in-depth preview tomorrow, I would still rather be in their organization’s position than that of the Astros.
Cincinnati 88-74
Milwaukee 87 -75
St. Louis 85-77
Chicago 81-81
Pittsburgh 70-92
Houston 68-94
National League West
I’m predicting my first real upset here with the Los Angeles Dodgers narrowly edging out the defending World Series champs for the division crown. I just like the make-up of this Dodgers team with the arms of Kershaw, Billingsley and Lilly leading the rotation and a big bounce back year from Matt Kemp. The Giants will be strong again led by their fantastic pitching staff but I think they overachieved a bit with the bats last year and could suffer a bit from the age-old disease known as World Series hangover. Colorado should be in the mix as well if Troy Tulowitski can stay healthy and their starters continue where they left off last year. As for the Padres and Diamondbacks….there’s always next year.
Los Angeles 89-73
San Francisco 88 -74
Colorado 84-78
San Diego 69-93
Arizona 65-97
MVP
AL: Robinson Cano
NL: Ryan Braun
Cy Young
AL: Felix Hernandez
NL: Clayton Kershaw
Rookie of the Year
AL: Jeremy Hellickson
NL: Freddie Freeman
Coach of the Year
AL: Ozzie Guillen
NL: Don Mattingly
AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas
New York over Minnesota
New York over Boston
NL Playoffs
Philadelphia over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Los Angeles
Atlanta over Philadelphia
World Series
New York over Atlanta
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
More Tourney Talk
I probably do not need to tell you how shocking this Final Four really is. Quite frankly, I can’t even explain how or what happened with any real sense of conviction. I had seen both VCU and Butler numerous times during the season and neither had the look of a great mid-major team, let alone a team that could handle the big boys come tournament time. Heck, VCU was the third best team in their own conference behind George Mason and Old Dominion, two teams that combined to win one game in the tournament and Butler lost to Youngstown State! One of those teams will be playing for the title come Monday night!
I guess we shouldn’t be as surprised by Kentucky and Connecticut, two of the best programs in the country, but UConn finished ninth in the Big East during the regular season before getting on a roll here in March and Kentucky showed their youth time and again this year in close games and on the road. Words really can’t describe how shocked I am by this Final Four...or how awful my bracket turned out!
Here are some of my other thoughts from the second weekend of March Madness:
- I know the NCAA Tournament is supposed to be great because it gives even the lesser teams a chance to compete for the National Championship but when that reality actually happens as it has this year, I hate it. I just can’t help but be disappointed in having to watch two mid-major programs compete in the Final Four without a future NBA player among them. At least last year we could explain Butler by having a phenomenal coach in Brad Stevens and a future lottery pick in Gordon Heyward leading the way…this year we have two great, young coaches leading their respective programs but a bunch of overachieving, scrappy players getting it done on the court. Sorry, I just can’t get excited over watching two teams with maybe a combined three players between them that would crack Pitt’s two-deep rotation.
- I hate the BCS as much as the next guy but at least we know that the two teams competing for the national title are among the best few teams in the country. As deserving as Butler and VCU are of being where they are at, we can say pretty confidently that neither are among the top 15 or even 20 teams in the country.
- Three of the four teams in the Final Four won their conference tournament and the fourth, VCU, had to win a play-in game to reach the round of 64. If you don’t think that momentum carries over, I don’t know what to tell you.
- Pitt fans like to complain about their lack of tournament success, and rightfully so, but does anyone do less with more than Bill Self and Kansas? The national title they won a couple of years back, which was gift wrapped by John Calipari and Memphis, gives Self and the Jayhawks fans a few years of reprieve, but boy does it seem like they lose to vastly inferior team year-in and year-out with just enormous amounts of talent.
- There were a number of fantastic games over the weekend but my favorite was probably Arizona versus UConn. Those teams went at it toe to toe in that second half and it was a thoroughly enjoyable game. My other favorites were Florida-Butler and Florida-BYU. Florida’s inability to put teams away came back to haunt them against a Butler team that just wouldn’t quit.
- The reason I enjoyed those games over a couple of other close ones was because I enjoy seeing teams play well. Ohio State played extremely poorly by their standards in their loss to Kentucky, which took away from the dramatics at the end for me. Same with the North Carolina-Kentucky game as John Henson became a non-factor due to foul trouble. Ohio State’s loss to Kentucky really magnified how hard it is to make a Final Four when just one poor shooting night from even the best team can end a season. Pitt fans should take notice.
- As I mentioned earlier, I can’t say I am too excited for this Final Four. Of course I will watch it because what real sports fan wouldn’t, but my guess is this is the least watched Final Four in some time. I will certainly be cheering for the UConn-Kentucky winner to win the title on Monday and hope some sense of reason returns to the tournament. My guess and it is completely a guess at this point, is that Kentucky finds a way to cool off the red hot Huskies on Saturday night and pulls out a close win over the tremendously coached Butler Bulldogs in the title game. Judging by the rest of my bracket, however, that prediction all but guarantees that VCU will knock off Connecticut for the worst National Championship team in NCAA history…
I guess we shouldn’t be as surprised by Kentucky and Connecticut, two of the best programs in the country, but UConn finished ninth in the Big East during the regular season before getting on a roll here in March and Kentucky showed their youth time and again this year in close games and on the road. Words really can’t describe how shocked I am by this Final Four...or how awful my bracket turned out!
Here are some of my other thoughts from the second weekend of March Madness:
- I know the NCAA Tournament is supposed to be great because it gives even the lesser teams a chance to compete for the National Championship but when that reality actually happens as it has this year, I hate it. I just can’t help but be disappointed in having to watch two mid-major programs compete in the Final Four without a future NBA player among them. At least last year we could explain Butler by having a phenomenal coach in Brad Stevens and a future lottery pick in Gordon Heyward leading the way…this year we have two great, young coaches leading their respective programs but a bunch of overachieving, scrappy players getting it done on the court. Sorry, I just can’t get excited over watching two teams with maybe a combined three players between them that would crack Pitt’s two-deep rotation.
- I hate the BCS as much as the next guy but at least we know that the two teams competing for the national title are among the best few teams in the country. As deserving as Butler and VCU are of being where they are at, we can say pretty confidently that neither are among the top 15 or even 20 teams in the country.
- Three of the four teams in the Final Four won their conference tournament and the fourth, VCU, had to win a play-in game to reach the round of 64. If you don’t think that momentum carries over, I don’t know what to tell you.
- Pitt fans like to complain about their lack of tournament success, and rightfully so, but does anyone do less with more than Bill Self and Kansas? The national title they won a couple of years back, which was gift wrapped by John Calipari and Memphis, gives Self and the Jayhawks fans a few years of reprieve, but boy does it seem like they lose to vastly inferior team year-in and year-out with just enormous amounts of talent.
- There were a number of fantastic games over the weekend but my favorite was probably Arizona versus UConn. Those teams went at it toe to toe in that second half and it was a thoroughly enjoyable game. My other favorites were Florida-Butler and Florida-BYU. Florida’s inability to put teams away came back to haunt them against a Butler team that just wouldn’t quit.
- The reason I enjoyed those games over a couple of other close ones was because I enjoy seeing teams play well. Ohio State played extremely poorly by their standards in their loss to Kentucky, which took away from the dramatics at the end for me. Same with the North Carolina-Kentucky game as John Henson became a non-factor due to foul trouble. Ohio State’s loss to Kentucky really magnified how hard it is to make a Final Four when just one poor shooting night from even the best team can end a season. Pitt fans should take notice.
- As I mentioned earlier, I can’t say I am too excited for this Final Four. Of course I will watch it because what real sports fan wouldn’t, but my guess is this is the least watched Final Four in some time. I will certainly be cheering for the UConn-Kentucky winner to win the title on Monday and hope some sense of reason returns to the tournament. My guess and it is completely a guess at this point, is that Kentucky finds a way to cool off the red hot Huskies on Saturday night and pulls out a close win over the tremendously coached Butler Bulldogs in the title game. Judging by the rest of my bracket, however, that prediction all but guarantees that VCU will knock off Connecticut for the worst National Championship team in NCAA history…
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Tournament Talk
Yesterday I wrote about Pitt’s disappointing loss so today we will try to eliminate their string of disappointing tournament runs from our thoughts and instead focus on the rest of this past weekend and look ahead to the rest of the tournament.
- I thought at the outset of the tournament that Ohio State at its best was better than any other team in the country and their play over the first weekend of the tournament did nothing to disprove that notion. Their lack of depth continues to be somewhat of a concern but the Buckeyes certainly proved why they were the #1 overall seed entering the tournament.
- Despite how great Ohio State looked, however, it is hard not to make Kansas the favorite at this point. That is not because of how great the Jayhawks looked, even though they did play well, it is because of the potential paths each team has to a championship game. Ohio State could very well see Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke just to make it to the title game while Kansas will face Richmond, the winner of VCU-Florida State and the survivor of the watered down Southeast region. No comparison there about which team has the easier path. I would be lying if I didn’t say I feel pretty good about my National Champion selection of Kansas.
- The other remaining number one seed got a surprising boost when freshman Kyrie Irving suited up for the first time in three months. Irving didn’t have his same explosiveness that we first saw at the beginning of the season but that should be expected coming back from such a long layoff. I am very interested to see how Irving looks this weekend with a couple of games and another week of practice under his belt. A healthy Irving puts Duke right there with Ohio State and Kansas as the prohibitive favorites to cut down the nets.
- All in all the officials do a great job in what is a thankless and almost impossible position to be in. One call that needs to be changed however - and this is not the officials fault as they call the rule as it is written - is the charging violation. Right now it is way, way too easy for a help defender to slide underneath an offensive player going to the hoop. The way the rule is currently being called puts an impossible judgment call on the official to make, it puts the offensive player in danger of getting hurt, and ultimately it makes for some ugly basketball. The first thing the NCAA needs to do is put in the semi-circle like the NBA has to stop charges from occurring underneath the basket and to make the call easier on the official. The second thing that needs to happen is that when a call is in doubt, it should be called a blocking violation. This will stop rewarding defensive players from trying to take so many charges and open the game back up. The game of basketball is a much more appealing and free-moving game to watch when bodies aren't flying all over the place underneath the basket for most of the game.
- Four double digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and a fifth sleeper as defined by our rules last week, Butler, has also joined the party. We knew it was a down year in terms of top talent around the NCAA, but for nearly a third of the final sixteen teams to be an eight seed or above is pretty remarkable. It could also mean that we are in for some ugly basketball on Thursday and Friday night.
- The game I am probably looking forward to most is San Diego State versus Connecticut. It should be fun to see if Kemba Walker can continue leading the Huskies on their incredible tournament run while the Aztecs have plenty of size and athletes to match-up. I am sticking with my pre-tournament pick of Connecticut in this one but it wouldn’t surprise me if Steve Fisher’s boys find a way to get it done.
- Six of my original Elite Eight teams remain and three of my four Final Four teams remain. (I promised I wouldn’t mention that fourth team!) I am sticking by all of my original selections with the revised predictions of Florida beating Wisconsin in the Southeast region to be our fourth Final Four team and Florida State knocking off cinderella VCU in the battle of sleeper supremacy.
- I am looking forward to another great weekend of basketball in what truly is the best month of the year on the sports calendar!
- I thought at the outset of the tournament that Ohio State at its best was better than any other team in the country and their play over the first weekend of the tournament did nothing to disprove that notion. Their lack of depth continues to be somewhat of a concern but the Buckeyes certainly proved why they were the #1 overall seed entering the tournament.
- Despite how great Ohio State looked, however, it is hard not to make Kansas the favorite at this point. That is not because of how great the Jayhawks looked, even though they did play well, it is because of the potential paths each team has to a championship game. Ohio State could very well see Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke just to make it to the title game while Kansas will face Richmond, the winner of VCU-Florida State and the survivor of the watered down Southeast region. No comparison there about which team has the easier path. I would be lying if I didn’t say I feel pretty good about my National Champion selection of Kansas.
- The other remaining number one seed got a surprising boost when freshman Kyrie Irving suited up for the first time in three months. Irving didn’t have his same explosiveness that we first saw at the beginning of the season but that should be expected coming back from such a long layoff. I am very interested to see how Irving looks this weekend with a couple of games and another week of practice under his belt. A healthy Irving puts Duke right there with Ohio State and Kansas as the prohibitive favorites to cut down the nets.
- All in all the officials do a great job in what is a thankless and almost impossible position to be in. One call that needs to be changed however - and this is not the officials fault as they call the rule as it is written - is the charging violation. Right now it is way, way too easy for a help defender to slide underneath an offensive player going to the hoop. The way the rule is currently being called puts an impossible judgment call on the official to make, it puts the offensive player in danger of getting hurt, and ultimately it makes for some ugly basketball. The first thing the NCAA needs to do is put in the semi-circle like the NBA has to stop charges from occurring underneath the basket and to make the call easier on the official. The second thing that needs to happen is that when a call is in doubt, it should be called a blocking violation. This will stop rewarding defensive players from trying to take so many charges and open the game back up. The game of basketball is a much more appealing and free-moving game to watch when bodies aren't flying all over the place underneath the basket for most of the game.
- Four double digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and a fifth sleeper as defined by our rules last week, Butler, has also joined the party. We knew it was a down year in terms of top talent around the NCAA, but for nearly a third of the final sixteen teams to be an eight seed or above is pretty remarkable. It could also mean that we are in for some ugly basketball on Thursday and Friday night.
- The game I am probably looking forward to most is San Diego State versus Connecticut. It should be fun to see if Kemba Walker can continue leading the Huskies on their incredible tournament run while the Aztecs have plenty of size and athletes to match-up. I am sticking with my pre-tournament pick of Connecticut in this one but it wouldn’t surprise me if Steve Fisher’s boys find a way to get it done.
- Six of my original Elite Eight teams remain and three of my four Final Four teams remain. (I promised I wouldn’t mention that fourth team!) I am sticking by all of my original selections with the revised predictions of Florida beating Wisconsin in the Southeast region to be our fourth Final Four team and Florida State knocking off cinderella VCU in the battle of sleeper supremacy.
- I am looking forward to another great weekend of basketball in what truly is the best month of the year on the sports calendar!
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Pitt Loss Becoming a Trend, on Dixon
Before we dive into all of the action from the weekend, I have to address the Pitt loss in some detail. Year after year now Pitt has continued to struggle in the NCAA Tournament. As one very adamant Pitt fan explained in detail to me yesterday, Jamie Dixon has now lost to a lower seeded team in the tournament all eight years since he has been in charge. He has never beaten a higher seeded team. Despite being 11-8 overall in the tournament, that is not a pretty fact. Jamie Dixon supporters, which I am one of, should stop calling him a “great” coach. He is good, not great at this point. Great are guys like Coach K, Rick Pitino, Jim Calhoun and Roy Williams. Those guys have won championships, been to Final Fours and achieved great success with a number of teams.
As I mentioned, I am a Dixon supporter and think Pitt should give him a lifetime contract tomorrow if he wanted one. That being said, this loss falls squarely on his shoulders and he deserves all of the criticism being thrown his way this week. More alarming, however, is this trend that is developing with the type of games his Pitt teams have lost and their continued breakdown in close games. A different Pitt fan expressed his concern to me on Friday that he was worried about Shelvin Mack going off because he is the exact kind of player that has killed Pitt in the past. Well, what happened? Mack went off, the Panthers had to rally against an inferior team and then they eventually choked in the end. Dixon’s defensive strategy on great guards like Mack needs to change. Whether it was defensive breakdowns and missed assignments like Gilbert Brown alluded to in his press conference we will never know - only the guys in the room know that - but this has continually happened over Dixon’s career, and that was only part of the in-game strategy that was poor. There were countless other instances of poor coaching and/or preparation including the failure to even get a shot off before the shot clock violation leading by one late in the game.
Further, leaving the guys on the foul line for Gilbert Brown’s second free throw was inexcusable. I said it before the shot to those I was watching the game with, “why are they still on the foul line”. Sure, Nasir Robinson made a boneheaded play but he’s a college kid wanting desperately to be the hero. A “great” coach doesn’t put his player in the position to make that kind of mistake. No, a great coach puts his team in position to win everytime on floor, something Dixon has failed to do come tournament time. Dixon is a good coach and he’s learning on the job with no prior head-coaching experience but at some point he needs to get over his tournament troubles. I think that time will come. If you continually put yourself in position to succeed and he continues to bring in the kind of players he now is, eventually Jamie Dixon and Pitt will break through with a great tournament run. It would be nice though if that time came sooner rather than later.
I will be back a little later today with the rest of my thoughts on the action from this weekend.
As I mentioned, I am a Dixon supporter and think Pitt should give him a lifetime contract tomorrow if he wanted one. That being said, this loss falls squarely on his shoulders and he deserves all of the criticism being thrown his way this week. More alarming, however, is this trend that is developing with the type of games his Pitt teams have lost and their continued breakdown in close games. A different Pitt fan expressed his concern to me on Friday that he was worried about Shelvin Mack going off because he is the exact kind of player that has killed Pitt in the past. Well, what happened? Mack went off, the Panthers had to rally against an inferior team and then they eventually choked in the end. Dixon’s defensive strategy on great guards like Mack needs to change. Whether it was defensive breakdowns and missed assignments like Gilbert Brown alluded to in his press conference we will never know - only the guys in the room know that - but this has continually happened over Dixon’s career, and that was only part of the in-game strategy that was poor. There were countless other instances of poor coaching and/or preparation including the failure to even get a shot off before the shot clock violation leading by one late in the game.
Further, leaving the guys on the foul line for Gilbert Brown’s second free throw was inexcusable. I said it before the shot to those I was watching the game with, “why are they still on the foul line”. Sure, Nasir Robinson made a boneheaded play but he’s a college kid wanting desperately to be the hero. A “great” coach doesn’t put his player in the position to make that kind of mistake. No, a great coach puts his team in position to win everytime on floor, something Dixon has failed to do come tournament time. Dixon is a good coach and he’s learning on the job with no prior head-coaching experience but at some point he needs to get over his tournament troubles. I think that time will come. If you continually put yourself in position to succeed and he continues to bring in the kind of players he now is, eventually Jamie Dixon and Pitt will break through with a great tournament run. It would be nice though if that time came sooner rather than later.
I will be back a little later today with the rest of my thoughts on the action from this weekend.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
NCAA Bracket Selections 2011
Thursday has come, everyone has filled out their brackets and opening tip-off of the 2011 NCAA Tournament is just hours away. The first Thursday and Friday of the NCAA Tournament have a certain buzz about them, kind of like we are watching something great develop in its infant stages. I, of course, have taken the afternoon off and a vacation day on Friday to watch all of the action.
Before we get to the games, however, it is time to unveil the “official” People’s Quarterback bracket. I call it official because like so many of you, I fill out too many of these things to keep track of. This one, however, is the one I am holding myself accountable for, as Regis used to say, “final answer!”
If those first two paragraphs sounded familiar, they should! Those were the opening two paragraphs I used last year before I went on to say how much I know, blah, blah, blah. I know you just want the picks, so we’ll get right to them.
I like upsets early and chalk late. I also have the same Final Four and champion as the President, which isn’t such a bad thing in case he ever gets bored with that simple job he does and comes across the blog. Here are the picks:
East
Ohio State over George Mason
Kentucky over Clemson
Syracuse over Marquette
UNC over Washington
Ohio State over UNC
West
Duke over Tennessee
Texas over Arizona
UConn over Cincinnati
Penn State over San Diego State
Duke over UConn
Southwest
Kansas over UNLV
Louisville over Richmond
Purdue over Georgetown
Texas A&M over Notre Dame
Kansas over Purdue
Southeast
Pittsburgh over Old Dominion
Utah State over Wisconsin
BYU over Gonzaga
Florida over Michigan State
Pittsburgh over Florida
Final Four
Ohio State over Duke
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Kansas over Ohio State
Before we get to the games, however, it is time to unveil the “official” People’s Quarterback bracket. I call it official because like so many of you, I fill out too many of these things to keep track of. This one, however, is the one I am holding myself accountable for, as Regis used to say, “final answer!”
If those first two paragraphs sounded familiar, they should! Those were the opening two paragraphs I used last year before I went on to say how much I know, blah, blah, blah. I know you just want the picks, so we’ll get right to them.
I like upsets early and chalk late. I also have the same Final Four and champion as the President, which isn’t such a bad thing in case he ever gets bored with that simple job he does and comes across the blog. Here are the picks:
East
Ohio State over George Mason
Kentucky over Clemson
Syracuse over Marquette
UNC over Washington
Ohio State over UNC
West
Duke over Tennessee
Texas over Arizona
UConn over Cincinnati
Penn State over San Diego State
Duke over UConn
Southwest
Kansas over UNLV
Louisville over Richmond
Purdue over Georgetown
Texas A&M over Notre Dame
Kansas over Purdue
Southeast
Pittsburgh over Old Dominion
Utah State over Wisconsin
BYU over Gonzaga
Florida over Michigan State
Pittsburgh over Florida
Final Four
Ohio State over Duke
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Kansas over Ohio State
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Bracket Thoughts
- For those of you that are not long-time readers you probably don’t know that Selection Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year. To check out the piece I wrote about Selection Sunday last year, click here.
- Pitt fans should be thrilled with the Panthers draw. I commented to my brother on Sunday that I do not think Pitt could have received a better region if they had picked it out themselves.
- I have read or heard others who do not think Pitt’s draw is as good as I believe because of their potential second round (I guess it is now called the third round but nobody is speaking in those terms yet) match-up with Old Dominion or Butler and a possible Sweet 16 opponent of Kansas State. Listen…if you are a number one seed and you are worried about a 2nd round game against a non-power conference team and the team you think offers the most potential problems in your region is the #5 seed, you got a damn good draw.
- I would agree that Duke has the second easiest region among the four number one seeds (many of the TV experts think Duke has the easiest). That leads me to the question of what the heck is the committee doing? Ohio State and Kansas are clearly the #1 and #2 overall seeds in the tournament and were named rightly so. How can the committee justify having their regions being the most difficult? I know this is a matter of perception but still, it is pretty clear to even the least knowledgeable college basketball fan that Kansas and Ohio State were not rewarded properly for their overall seeds.
- I guess the actual reason is not the committee’s fault. This whole idea of putting the top seeds in their “pods” and then placing them in the respective regions to keep them close to their fan bases is ridiculous. Line the teams up 1-68 and seed the tournament accordingly.
- Another pet-peeve of mine that has developed is listening to these “experts” calling teams such as Purdue, Louisville and Syracuse a “sleeper”. We need to make some kind of universal ground rules up for what a sleeper is. My suggestion is two-part:
(1) If we are talking about the ability to win the national championship, no team that is a top four seed in its region can be considered a sleeper. If you are ranked in the top 15 or 16 in the country you have a legitimate shot to win six straight games and cut down the nets.
(2) If we are talking about true sleepers, as in a team that people would be at least a little bit surprised if they made the Sweet 16 or better, then a team must be seeded 7th or higher in its region to be considered. No one would be surprised if #6 seeds like Georgetown or Cincinnati make a little run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. They are not sleepers.
- Speaking of Georgetown, if it is true that Chris Wright is expected back I see a legitimate scenario where the Big East has seven or eight Sweet 16 teams and possibly three of the Final Four teams. Even with that kind of depth, however, I still don’t see a Big East team winning the National Championship. My money today would be on Duke, Ohio State or Kansas…and I am leaning towards Duke after seeing each team’s respective brackets.
- I will make my official picks Thursday morning. We have to see who wins these horrible, nobody really cares about them, play-in games before we make our official predictions right?!? But since you’re reading this today, I’ll take Clemson, USC, UNC-Asheville and UT-San Antonio in the play-in games.
- Pitt fans should be thrilled with the Panthers draw. I commented to my brother on Sunday that I do not think Pitt could have received a better region if they had picked it out themselves.
- I have read or heard others who do not think Pitt’s draw is as good as I believe because of their potential second round (I guess it is now called the third round but nobody is speaking in those terms yet) match-up with Old Dominion or Butler and a possible Sweet 16 opponent of Kansas State. Listen…if you are a number one seed and you are worried about a 2nd round game against a non-power conference team and the team you think offers the most potential problems in your region is the #5 seed, you got a damn good draw.
- I would agree that Duke has the second easiest region among the four number one seeds (many of the TV experts think Duke has the easiest). That leads me to the question of what the heck is the committee doing? Ohio State and Kansas are clearly the #1 and #2 overall seeds in the tournament and were named rightly so. How can the committee justify having their regions being the most difficult? I know this is a matter of perception but still, it is pretty clear to even the least knowledgeable college basketball fan that Kansas and Ohio State were not rewarded properly for their overall seeds.
- I guess the actual reason is not the committee’s fault. This whole idea of putting the top seeds in their “pods” and then placing them in the respective regions to keep them close to their fan bases is ridiculous. Line the teams up 1-68 and seed the tournament accordingly.
- Another pet-peeve of mine that has developed is listening to these “experts” calling teams such as Purdue, Louisville and Syracuse a “sleeper”. We need to make some kind of universal ground rules up for what a sleeper is. My suggestion is two-part:
(1) If we are talking about the ability to win the national championship, no team that is a top four seed in its region can be considered a sleeper. If you are ranked in the top 15 or 16 in the country you have a legitimate shot to win six straight games and cut down the nets.
(2) If we are talking about true sleepers, as in a team that people would be at least a little bit surprised if they made the Sweet 16 or better, then a team must be seeded 7th or higher in its region to be considered. No one would be surprised if #6 seeds like Georgetown or Cincinnati make a little run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. They are not sleepers.
- Speaking of Georgetown, if it is true that Chris Wright is expected back I see a legitimate scenario where the Big East has seven or eight Sweet 16 teams and possibly three of the Final Four teams. Even with that kind of depth, however, I still don’t see a Big East team winning the National Championship. My money today would be on Duke, Ohio State or Kansas…and I am leaning towards Duke after seeing each team’s respective brackets.
- I will make my official picks Thursday morning. We have to see who wins these horrible, nobody really cares about them, play-in games before we make our official predictions right?!? But since you’re reading this today, I’ll take Clemson, USC, UNC-Asheville and UT-San Antonio in the play-in games.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
National Title Contenders
Late last week I was halfway paying attention to a college basketball post-game show on ESPNU when they started going over the qualifications, for lack of a better word, needed for a team to win the national championship. Among their qualifications; the team had to have a scoring margin greater than ten points, have at least a 10-game winning streak at some point during the season and finally they must have been ranked in the top 10 to begin the season. Those qualifications narrowed the list of title contenders for this year to Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh and Purdue.
The hosts of the show said that the last four national champions all fit these criteria. While the sample size associated with these qualifications is pretty much meaningless, it did get me to thinking about which teams are legitimate national title contenders. Taking a quick look at this week’s rankings, I see seven teams with legitimate national title aspirations, another three or four teams that have an outside shot, and with no disrespect to BYU and San Diego State, a few teams that have no shot despite their lofty ranking.
Let’s take a quick look at the teams with legitimate national title hopes and rank them on a 1-10 scale for their likelihood of actually cutting down the nets come the first Monday in April. For comparisons sake on our 1-10 scale, a 1 can be compared to the 1997 Arizona team led by Mike Bibby and Miles Simon (yes, I just wanted to get people reminiscing on that team), the most surprising of the last 15 or so national champions and 10 being 2007 Florida, the most favored champion in recent history entering the tournament.
Ohio State – Anyone who saw Ohio St. dismantle Wisconsin on Sunday saw what was probably the most complete and well-played game that any team has played all season. The Buckeyes have a star in Jared Sullinger on the block, solid shooters around him, a very solid backcourt and experience with David Lighty, William Buford and Jon Diebler; pretty much all of the ingredients needed to win a national title. Ohio State’s one flaw is their lack of depth as they basically play only six guys, meaning Sullinger must stay out of foul trouble and the Buckeyes can’t afford an injury along the way. No team in college basketball is as good or as complete as that 2007 Florida team, but the Buckeyes at their best are the best team in college basketball this season. National Title Ranking: 8.
Kansas – If there is a team out there who can challenge Ohio State at its best it’s the Jayhawks. Kansas has it all; size, speed, shooting, inside scoring, depth, coaching. In my opinion, Kansas has the most well-rounded roster in college basketball in terms of team dynamics. The star power is also there with the Morris twins and freshman Josh Selby to make Kansas my co-favorite to win it all. The one question I continue to have with Kansas is their toughness underneath and on defense. National Title Ranking: 8.
Duke – Can’t help but wonder how good this Duke team would be with injured freshman point guard Kyrie Irving but at this point it is probably safe to assume that the super frosh won’t be back. Still, the Blue Devils are plenty capable of making a national title run with plenty of big game experience and two stars in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler leading the way. The stars do need more help from the Plumlee brothers and Andre Dawkins among others, but with the right draw and continued excellence from Smith and Singler, you have to give this team just as good a chance at the outset of the tournament as the team that won the national championship last year. National Title Ranking: 6.
North Carolina – Pretty hard to believe that the Tar Heels are this high on the list after a very rough start to the season but North Carolina has played as well as any team in America over the past month or so. UNC’s ascension began with the insertion of Kendall Marshall at the point guard position and watching the kid play it is no wonder. Marshall allows Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller and the rest of the Hells to play within their comfort zones with his incredible passing and fantastic game management skills. In a normal year, this is probably only a fringe national title contender but in an overall down season, the Tar Heels have as good as shot any team outside of Columbus, OH or Lawrence, KS. National Title Ranking: 6.
Pittsburgh – Pitt is every bit as talented as the two teams I rank above them on this list but until the Panthers get over their post-season hump I just can’t put them on equal terms with Duke and North Carolina. I think the key for the Panthers is Brad Wannamaker’s penetrating ability. The Panthers need Wannamaker to create easy scoring opportunities on the inside and open looks on the outside for Ashton Gibbs to be a dynamic offensive team. Without Wannamaker creating these easy scoring opportunities, the Panthers are too reliant on their offensive rebounding and physicality, something that could haunt them if they run into the wrong officiating crew in the tourney. Anything less than a Final Four run, however, would be a disappointment for this team. National Title Ranking: 5.
Purdue – No team in the country has an inside-outside duo like the Boilermakers do with JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. The qualifications listed at the beginning of this column also represent that this team’s resume is much better than many may have anticipated. The question for Purdue is if it has enough around its two dynamic players to really make a splash. National Title Ranking: 3.
Texas – Texas defends as well as any team in the nation, pounds the glass and plays a physical brand of basketball that most teams cannot rival. Texas’ recent problems have been centered around failing to get the ball inside and relying on too many perimeter shots. If you would have asked me two or three weeks ago this ranking would have been much higher but it is never a good sign when you are not playing well heading into March. Of all the teams on this list, however, a run in the Big 12 tournament would most dramatically boost their stock heading into the Big Dance in my mind. If Texas were to win or make it to the conference tournament finals, I would probably put them back up to the Pitt level but for now: National Title Ranking: 3.
Those are the seven true national title contenders I see. Other teams that could win it that wouldn’t be a total shock include Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida (who is better than people realize) and a true darkhorse in Georgetown if Chris Wright can get healthy in time for the tournament. But if recent history tells us anything, expect the national champion to come from the group of seven I have ranked above. Remember that when filling out your brackets next week.
The hosts of the show said that the last four national champions all fit these criteria. While the sample size associated with these qualifications is pretty much meaningless, it did get me to thinking about which teams are legitimate national title contenders. Taking a quick look at this week’s rankings, I see seven teams with legitimate national title aspirations, another three or four teams that have an outside shot, and with no disrespect to BYU and San Diego State, a few teams that have no shot despite their lofty ranking.
Let’s take a quick look at the teams with legitimate national title hopes and rank them on a 1-10 scale for their likelihood of actually cutting down the nets come the first Monday in April. For comparisons sake on our 1-10 scale, a 1 can be compared to the 1997 Arizona team led by Mike Bibby and Miles Simon (yes, I just wanted to get people reminiscing on that team), the most surprising of the last 15 or so national champions and 10 being 2007 Florida, the most favored champion in recent history entering the tournament.
Ohio State – Anyone who saw Ohio St. dismantle Wisconsin on Sunday saw what was probably the most complete and well-played game that any team has played all season. The Buckeyes have a star in Jared Sullinger on the block, solid shooters around him, a very solid backcourt and experience with David Lighty, William Buford and Jon Diebler; pretty much all of the ingredients needed to win a national title. Ohio State’s one flaw is their lack of depth as they basically play only six guys, meaning Sullinger must stay out of foul trouble and the Buckeyes can’t afford an injury along the way. No team in college basketball is as good or as complete as that 2007 Florida team, but the Buckeyes at their best are the best team in college basketball this season. National Title Ranking: 8.
Kansas – If there is a team out there who can challenge Ohio State at its best it’s the Jayhawks. Kansas has it all; size, speed, shooting, inside scoring, depth, coaching. In my opinion, Kansas has the most well-rounded roster in college basketball in terms of team dynamics. The star power is also there with the Morris twins and freshman Josh Selby to make Kansas my co-favorite to win it all. The one question I continue to have with Kansas is their toughness underneath and on defense. National Title Ranking: 8.
Duke – Can’t help but wonder how good this Duke team would be with injured freshman point guard Kyrie Irving but at this point it is probably safe to assume that the super frosh won’t be back. Still, the Blue Devils are plenty capable of making a national title run with plenty of big game experience and two stars in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler leading the way. The stars do need more help from the Plumlee brothers and Andre Dawkins among others, but with the right draw and continued excellence from Smith and Singler, you have to give this team just as good a chance at the outset of the tournament as the team that won the national championship last year. National Title Ranking: 6.
North Carolina – Pretty hard to believe that the Tar Heels are this high on the list after a very rough start to the season but North Carolina has played as well as any team in America over the past month or so. UNC’s ascension began with the insertion of Kendall Marshall at the point guard position and watching the kid play it is no wonder. Marshall allows Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller and the rest of the Hells to play within their comfort zones with his incredible passing and fantastic game management skills. In a normal year, this is probably only a fringe national title contender but in an overall down season, the Tar Heels have as good as shot any team outside of Columbus, OH or Lawrence, KS. National Title Ranking: 6.
Pittsburgh – Pitt is every bit as talented as the two teams I rank above them on this list but until the Panthers get over their post-season hump I just can’t put them on equal terms with Duke and North Carolina. I think the key for the Panthers is Brad Wannamaker’s penetrating ability. The Panthers need Wannamaker to create easy scoring opportunities on the inside and open looks on the outside for Ashton Gibbs to be a dynamic offensive team. Without Wannamaker creating these easy scoring opportunities, the Panthers are too reliant on their offensive rebounding and physicality, something that could haunt them if they run into the wrong officiating crew in the tourney. Anything less than a Final Four run, however, would be a disappointment for this team. National Title Ranking: 5.
Purdue – No team in the country has an inside-outside duo like the Boilermakers do with JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. The qualifications listed at the beginning of this column also represent that this team’s resume is much better than many may have anticipated. The question for Purdue is if it has enough around its two dynamic players to really make a splash. National Title Ranking: 3.
Texas – Texas defends as well as any team in the nation, pounds the glass and plays a physical brand of basketball that most teams cannot rival. Texas’ recent problems have been centered around failing to get the ball inside and relying on too many perimeter shots. If you would have asked me two or three weeks ago this ranking would have been much higher but it is never a good sign when you are not playing well heading into March. Of all the teams on this list, however, a run in the Big 12 tournament would most dramatically boost their stock heading into the Big Dance in my mind. If Texas were to win or make it to the conference tournament finals, I would probably put them back up to the Pitt level but for now: National Title Ranking: 3.
Those are the seven true national title contenders I see. Other teams that could win it that wouldn’t be a total shock include Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida (who is better than people realize) and a true darkhorse in Georgetown if Chris Wright can get healthy in time for the tournament. But if recent history tells us anything, expect the national champion to come from the group of seven I have ranked above. Remember that when filling out your brackets next week.
Friday, March 4, 2011
NBA Smorgasbord...It's Fantastic!
I don’t often get the chance to write about the NBA even though I probably follow the league as much as any of the diehard fans in cities that have a team but hey, you have to give your audience what they want, right? With the presence of a professional team in the other three major U.S. sports as well as one of the marquee teams in college basketball, the NBA understandably takes a backseat in the minds of sports fans in the ‘Burgh. It is kind of a shame though, as the NBA has never been as strong or as deep as it is today. With that, I am going to use today’s smorgasbord to give some of my thoughts on the “Association” as we head towards what is shaping up to be a terrific two months of NBA playoff basketball.
* I mentioned in the opening that the league has never been as talented or as deep as it is today and to be honest, it isn’t even close. At least seven, maybe even eight teams have a legitimate shot to win the NBA title this year. (In case you were wondering those seven teams are San Antonio, Los Angeles, Dallas, Boston, Miami, Chicago and Orlando…with Oklahoma City having a puncher’s chance.) Just one year ago that number was only four, and going back to the heydays of Jordan, Magic and Larry there was never more than three or four teams that had a legitimate shot at the title in any given year. This is not the result of a watered down league either as each of these rosters have at least one superstar and in most instances multiple stars on them.
* It is not just the top teams featuring star players either. Even some of the league’s worst teams feature young, exciting stars in the making such as Kevin Love in Minnesota, Blake Griffin for the Clippers and John Wall for Washington. Really the only team with nothing going for it right now is Cleveland, and we all know the reasons for that. If you are a true fan of basketball at its highest level it is pretty easy to find a game or a team to watch almost every night of the week.
* After Miami blew a 24 point lead last night in losing to the Orlando Magic the talk is going to heat up (no pun intended) on how LeBron and company continue to lose close games and to the other elite teams. Last night’s loss dropped the Heat to 3-9 against the other six teams mentioned as true contenders above and a lousy 5-12 in games decided by five points or less. The truth of the matter, however, is that neither of these records means a thing. How do I know this? Glad you asked…
* If you are a fan of the NBA, a fan of statistical analysis, or just a fan of good writing and you have not read John Hollinger’s stuff on ESPN, do yourself a favor and get an insider account. Hollinger’s stuff is worth the yearly price alone. Anyhow, Hollinger points out that records against elite teams and in close games are essentially meaningless when assessing a team’s ability to win a championship. He doesn’t just say this; he shows empirical statistical evidence to support the notion. More important factors include scoring margin (Miami owns the league’s best), star power (LeBron and Wade) and performance heading into the playoffs (Miami is 34-10 since the opening month, the 2nd best record in the league over that stretch). Next time you turn on ESPN or TNT and hear the talking heads ranting about Miami’s record in close games, do yourself a favor and change the channel until they begin talking about things that matter. Do yourself another favor when filling out your NBA Playoff Bracket – do those exist?! – and remember that Miami has the best pair of players in the world and thank me in June.
* While Miami would be my guess as to who will win the title at the end of the day, I put their odds of winning it at no better than those of the Lakers, Celtics or Spurs. Each of those teams has multiple stars themselves, major playoff experience and fantastic defensive systems. Dallas and Orlando aren’t far behind either with unique rosters built around Dirk and Howard, respectively, and both teams are playoff battle-tested as well. Like I said, this is shaping up to be one of the best stretches of playoff basketball in NBA history.
* Turning our attention away from the court for just a second; if you haven’t paid much attention to the NBA yet this season you may be quite shocked to take a quick look at each team’s rosters. Tons of players changed teams at the trade deadline and unless you live under the rock you have probably heard about the most prominent of the moves being Carmelo Anthony’s trade to the Knicks. Between Anthony forcing Denver’s hand, LeBron’s “Decision”, and the rumors of more NBA superstars joining forces in coming years there has been a sentiment being pushed about that the players now control the league. The fact of the matter is that players have always controlled the league. The difference today is that the level of media scrutiny takes everything to a whole new level. It was 30 years ago when Magic Johnson had his coached forced out in only his second season in the league. Further, if you take a look at the NBA’s list of its 50 greatest players you will notice that a remarkable number of them played the primes of their careers in more than one city, often joining forces with other stars.
* Today’s moves from the league’s marquee players are nothing new and with the enormous amount of talent around the league at this time I expect some major rivalries to develop as the result. Rivalries are always good for a league and great for our entertainment. For NBA fans out there, sit back and enjoy what should be great theatre this playoff season and what should be some great basketball over the next few years, barring a lockout of course. For you non-NBA fans, I am surprised you made it this far but if you have hopefully I have peaked your interest just a bit. The NBA…it’s FANtastic!
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