It is funny how quickly things can change in sports. Just a few short weeks ago I wrote how the Penguins were in great shape heading into the second half of the season and were on the short list of Stanley Cup contenders. Since then, the Penguins have lost Evgeni Malkin for the season, remain uncertain about the status of Sidney Crosby, are still without Mark Letestu and have seen Chris Kunitz, Arron Asham and Dustin Jeffrey also miss time with injuries. If you haven't been paying attention and flicked on a Penguins game you could have thought you were mistaken and put on a Wilkes-Barre Baby Penguins game - whose players seemingly make up half of the parent club's roster right now. On the ice, the Penguins took a beating on Long Island, both figuratively and literally, and followed that up with what I thought was an even worse performance against the Rangers in Madison Square Garden. The Penguins did manage to squeak out two points in overtime against the lowly Avalanche Wednesday night, only their second win in six games. You talk about a complete 180 degree turn in a short period of time?!?
That, however, is the bad news. The good news is that Penguins remain in a healthy position to make the playoffs and in fact own a six point lead over the Capitals for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference and home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. More importantly, however, is that all of the players except Malkin are expected back in time for a playoff run. The one question mark remains Crosby, and it is the ultimate question mark for the Penguins, but you have to imagine that he will play again this year. I know post-concussion symptoms are unpredictable but I still think that it is best to remain optimistic at this point. If and when Crosby returns, and even without Malkin, I still maintain that the Penguins have the second best line-up in the Eastern Conference behind only the Philadelphia Flyers. Throw in the advantage in goal with Marc-Andre Fleury and the Penguins are still as good as bet as anyone to come out of the East.
The other good news, and it's the only good news coming from Malkin's injury, is that happened before the NHL trade deadline next week. General Manager Ray Shero has shown that he is aggressive and adept at making trade deadline deals and unless he knows something that we don't about Crosby's status, or if he just remains a bit more skeptical about his return, I would expect Shero to be aggressive once again. You cannot replace the production of a superstar like Malkin but with the rest of the Penguins forwards, their play on the blue line and in the net, a simple upgrade on Crosby's or Staal's wing could be the difference for the Pens.
The NHL regular season is a long grind and nothing has been more evidence of that than the past few weeks for the Penguins. That long season is a good thing right now though as the Pens still have 23 more regular season games before the playoffs begin. At this point, there are many reasons to remain optimistic as a Penguins' fan. Let’s just cross our fingers for Crosby’s healthy return to the line-up because without that, nothing else will really matter.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Weekend Update
As promised, I pretty much spent my entire weekend watching as many sporting events as humanly possible (along with a little Grammy action throw in to mix things up). There are too many opinions floating around in my head to include in just one post so today I am going to limit my thoughts mostly to college basketball. I will save some of my NBA thoughts for the end of the week as they approach their All-Star weekend and have some Penguins and NHL thoughts in-between. Before I get to hoops, however, I do want to touch upon the one big issue both in Pittsburgh and in hockey circles.
The Penguins-Islanders game on Friday night was an absolute disgrace to the sport of hockey. I am a fan of the game. I enjoy watching good hockey, not just the Penguins, and will often find myself watching two Western Conference teams playing when nothing else is on despite hockey coming in a distant fourth in my own sports preference list. I also do not have a problem with fighting and sort of understand its place and history in the game, not to mention enjoy a good fight…BUT what happened on Long Island was not hockey, it wasn’t sports, it wasn’t anything that should be allowed to happen in this country.
The NHL’s response to what happened was an even bigger joke and did nothing to deter similar events from happening in the future. Trying to sucker punch someone from behind, calling up goons for the sole purpose of getting in as many fights as possible and intentionally elbowing someone in the face and then continuing to attack him when injured were just some of the ridiculous antics that took place. These are things that would be illegal and insane at a sanctioned boxing or MMA fight, let alone a hockey game. If the NHL cannot properly handle, punish and stop these events from occurring, maybe it’s time to take fighting out of the game altogether. I will have a little more on this subject, including Mario’s statement, later this week.
Now, on to hoops…
· Pitt continued its Big East run with a second impressive road victory against Villanova on Saturday despite the absence of leading scorer Ashton Gibbs. Many people are beginning to believe that this team is better than the 2009 version featuring Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields. I don't think this team is as good as that team two years ago, but they are close. This version is definitely deeper and more well-rounded but that team had what should have been two first round NBA picks (maybe even two lottery picks based on current NBA production) while this team has zero draft picks at all right now. College basketball, however, isn't nearly as strong as it was two years ago so this Pitt team has a clear opportunity to achieve more than that team. Jamie Dixon’s squad is definitely one of the few favorites to advance to the Final Four in Houston.
· Speaking of the NBA, I had that exact conversation with my Dad heading to the Duquesne game on Sunday. I do not see why Brad Wannamaker and Gilbert Brown couldn't be decent 10th or 11th men in the NBA. They offer flexibility and the ability to defend two different positions well. It will probably come down to Wannamaker’s ability to play some point guard while it will be Brown’s shooting ability that will determine whether they can earn a jersey on the next level.
· Those that watched Kansas State beat up on Kansas last night in their first game as the #1 team saw what had me worried about this Jayhawks team a few weeks back. Despite its talent and depth, Kansas does not play tough enough underneath and has too many lapses on the defensive end. One game on the road in February means little, but for the team I think is the most talented in the nation they need to improve in those areas in a hurry if they want to accomplish a Final Four run.
· While Kansas’s loss showed some of its deficiencies, Ohio State’s loss was pretty meaningless to me. The Buckeyes looked like the best team in the nation for most of the game until Wisconsin got unbelievably hot in the second half. Those things happen in road games, especially to a good team like Wisconsin who is nearly unbeatable at home. Wisconsin did prove themselves as a team that none of the contenders want to see before the regional finals. Their ability to limit possessions, play solid defense and shoot the three-pointer are going to make them an awfully tough out come tournament time.
· The other two top teams I have yet to mention, Texas and Duke, kept plugging along. The Longhorns continue to win impressively and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they won the remainder of their games before the Big XII tournament. Duke, on the other hand, has looked less and less impressive as the season has moved on. Without star freshman point guard Kyle Irving, the Dukies have relied heavily on Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to carry the load. Despite some decent performances from their secondary guys the past couple of games, it wouldn’t shock me to see Duke stumble in a game or two before the Big Dance.
· Another team that is coming on strong is Georgetown who, after a little mid-season swoon, has won eight straight games including five over would-be tournament teams. The Hoyas feature one of the best backcourts in America with Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and Jason Clark. Freeman turned his ankle in the Marquette game on Sunday but all indications are that he should be fine. The Hoyas are still lacking in the interior, as being the nation’s 223rd ranked team in rebounding will attest, but we all know that guard play wins come March and nobody has had better backcourt play than Georgetown over the past month.
· I mentioned that I attended the Duquesne Dukes game on Sunday and it was fun to attend a game that meant something for that program for the first time in decades. Sure the Dukes fell to Xavier (a strong sleeper team for your NCAA brackets in about a month if you want some advice) but Coach Ron Everhart has the program headed in the right direction. The game was played in front of a sell-out crowd of over 10,000 people and just goes to show how people in Pittsburgh will get behind a team that has perennially struggled. The game had me thinking: Can you imagine PNC Park in September if the Pirates are even sniffing that magical 81st win? The place would be a sell-out every night.
The Penguins-Islanders game on Friday night was an absolute disgrace to the sport of hockey. I am a fan of the game. I enjoy watching good hockey, not just the Penguins, and will often find myself watching two Western Conference teams playing when nothing else is on despite hockey coming in a distant fourth in my own sports preference list. I also do not have a problem with fighting and sort of understand its place and history in the game, not to mention enjoy a good fight…BUT what happened on Long Island was not hockey, it wasn’t sports, it wasn’t anything that should be allowed to happen in this country.
The NHL’s response to what happened was an even bigger joke and did nothing to deter similar events from happening in the future. Trying to sucker punch someone from behind, calling up goons for the sole purpose of getting in as many fights as possible and intentionally elbowing someone in the face and then continuing to attack him when injured were just some of the ridiculous antics that took place. These are things that would be illegal and insane at a sanctioned boxing or MMA fight, let alone a hockey game. If the NHL cannot properly handle, punish and stop these events from occurring, maybe it’s time to take fighting out of the game altogether. I will have a little more on this subject, including Mario’s statement, later this week.
Now, on to hoops…
· Pitt continued its Big East run with a second impressive road victory against Villanova on Saturday despite the absence of leading scorer Ashton Gibbs. Many people are beginning to believe that this team is better than the 2009 version featuring Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields. I don't think this team is as good as that team two years ago, but they are close. This version is definitely deeper and more well-rounded but that team had what should have been two first round NBA picks (maybe even two lottery picks based on current NBA production) while this team has zero draft picks at all right now. College basketball, however, isn't nearly as strong as it was two years ago so this Pitt team has a clear opportunity to achieve more than that team. Jamie Dixon’s squad is definitely one of the few favorites to advance to the Final Four in Houston.
· Speaking of the NBA, I had that exact conversation with my Dad heading to the Duquesne game on Sunday. I do not see why Brad Wannamaker and Gilbert Brown couldn't be decent 10th or 11th men in the NBA. They offer flexibility and the ability to defend two different positions well. It will probably come down to Wannamaker’s ability to play some point guard while it will be Brown’s shooting ability that will determine whether they can earn a jersey on the next level.
· Those that watched Kansas State beat up on Kansas last night in their first game as the #1 team saw what had me worried about this Jayhawks team a few weeks back. Despite its talent and depth, Kansas does not play tough enough underneath and has too many lapses on the defensive end. One game on the road in February means little, but for the team I think is the most talented in the nation they need to improve in those areas in a hurry if they want to accomplish a Final Four run.
· While Kansas’s loss showed some of its deficiencies, Ohio State’s loss was pretty meaningless to me. The Buckeyes looked like the best team in the nation for most of the game until Wisconsin got unbelievably hot in the second half. Those things happen in road games, especially to a good team like Wisconsin who is nearly unbeatable at home. Wisconsin did prove themselves as a team that none of the contenders want to see before the regional finals. Their ability to limit possessions, play solid defense and shoot the three-pointer are going to make them an awfully tough out come tournament time.
· The other two top teams I have yet to mention, Texas and Duke, kept plugging along. The Longhorns continue to win impressively and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they won the remainder of their games before the Big XII tournament. Duke, on the other hand, has looked less and less impressive as the season has moved on. Without star freshman point guard Kyle Irving, the Dukies have relied heavily on Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to carry the load. Despite some decent performances from their secondary guys the past couple of games, it wouldn’t shock me to see Duke stumble in a game or two before the Big Dance.
· Another team that is coming on strong is Georgetown who, after a little mid-season swoon, has won eight straight games including five over would-be tournament teams. The Hoyas feature one of the best backcourts in America with Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and Jason Clark. Freeman turned his ankle in the Marquette game on Sunday but all indications are that he should be fine. The Hoyas are still lacking in the interior, as being the nation’s 223rd ranked team in rebounding will attest, but we all know that guard play wins come March and nobody has had better backcourt play than Georgetown over the past month.
· I mentioned that I attended the Duquesne Dukes game on Sunday and it was fun to attend a game that meant something for that program for the first time in decades. Sure the Dukes fell to Xavier (a strong sleeper team for your NCAA brackets in about a month if you want some advice) but Coach Ron Everhart has the program headed in the right direction. The game was played in front of a sell-out crowd of over 10,000 people and just goes to show how people in Pittsburgh will get behind a team that has perennially struggled. The game had me thinking: Can you imagine PNC Park in September if the Pirates are even sniffing that magical 81st win? The place would be a sell-out every night.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Football Hangover
The blog is taking a short hiatus to recharge the batteries after a long football season and a disappointing end to Super Bowl XLV for us Steelers fans. I plan on digesting a ton of NHL, NBA and college hoops action over the weekend so look for an extended smorgasbord on Tuesday with a recap and thoughts looking toward the final stretch drive before March Madness. For you baseball fans, only a couple of days before pitchers and catchers report!
Have a great weekend everyone...
Have a great weekend everyone...
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Plenty of Blame to Go Around
People are often quick to place blame on their own teams when they lose rather than praise the opposition for winning the game on their own merit. In many cases this line of thinking is incorrect and the other team simply played better and/or deserved to win the game. The Steelers, however, deserve much of the blame for their loss in Super Bowl XLV. Don’t get me wrong, the Packers did enough to deserve to win the football game. Green Bay played mistake-free football, made big plays when they needed to on both sides of the ball and put the game on the arm of their superstar quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to come out with the Lombardi Trophy. The Steelers, however, did more than their fair share to help the Packers hoist the trophy in the air.
Ben Roethlisberger had a subpar performance, especially by his lofty standards. Roethlisberger not only threw two interceptions but he missed a number of throws that he usually makes, most notably on the final fourth down pass to Mike Wallace. Roethlisberger’s pick six hurt, but it was one of those nothing you could do about it plays. His second interception, however, was a bad read, a bad throw and a big momentum killer for the Steelers who were moving the ball again after cutting the Packers lead to 14-3. There is certainly blame to be placed on Roethlisberger, but he is far from alone in that regard.
Rashard Mendenhall had a decent game himself. He ran for 63 yards on 14 carries including a nice eight-yard touchdown run. Mendenhall’s fumble, however, was probably the single biggest play of the game. The Steelers had cut the lead to four points, had begun establishing themselves on the ground and had all of the momentum on their side heading into the fourth quarter when Mendenhall fumbled on a second down and two play from the Packers’ 33-yard-line after being hit in the backfield. The play gave Green Bay the ball near midfield where they went on to score the eventual winning touchdown. The Steelers never quite recovered.
The Steelers defense, known all year for its ability to make big plays and prevent big plays from the opposition, accomplished neither. Dick LeBeau’s guys were unable to prevent Green Bay from scoring on both chances following Pittsburgh turnovers and were even worse in third down situations. Everyone will remember the 3rd and 10 pass to Greg Jennings in the fourth quarter as one of the key moments of the game, and it certainly was, but the Packers also converted five other critical third downs in the game and completed six passes over 20 yards. It was a poor performance from a unit that was widely considered the league’s best.
The special teams provided solid coverage and some decent returns but did their part in contributing mightily to the Steelers mistakes. Kicker Shaun Suisham missed a 52-yard field goal in the third quarter which would have cut the Packers lead to one. Sure, a 52-yarder is anything but a “gimme”, but indoors with no wind and perfect conditions this kick needs to be made. Suisham choked and kicked it about three miles wide left. Keyaron Fox, the Steelers special teams’ captain no-less, had an indefensible personal foul penalty called on the final kick return. This pushed the Steelers back to their own 13-yard-line to begin their final two-minute drive, one they would ultimately fail on with a chance to win the game.
Super Bowl winners simply do not make these kinds of mistakes. One or two mistakes can be overcome but when you start piling on the amount of mistakes that the Steelers made, in every facet of the game, it becomes near impossible to overcome. The Steelers tried their best to conquer them, nonetheless, and with two minutes and only 87 yards standing in their way they had an opportunity, but once again mistakes got the best of them. The Green Bay Packers deserve to be Super Bowl Champions today but in this game, it really was a case of the Pittsburgh Steelers not deserving.
Ben Roethlisberger had a subpar performance, especially by his lofty standards. Roethlisberger not only threw two interceptions but he missed a number of throws that he usually makes, most notably on the final fourth down pass to Mike Wallace. Roethlisberger’s pick six hurt, but it was one of those nothing you could do about it plays. His second interception, however, was a bad read, a bad throw and a big momentum killer for the Steelers who were moving the ball again after cutting the Packers lead to 14-3. There is certainly blame to be placed on Roethlisberger, but he is far from alone in that regard.
Rashard Mendenhall had a decent game himself. He ran for 63 yards on 14 carries including a nice eight-yard touchdown run. Mendenhall’s fumble, however, was probably the single biggest play of the game. The Steelers had cut the lead to four points, had begun establishing themselves on the ground and had all of the momentum on their side heading into the fourth quarter when Mendenhall fumbled on a second down and two play from the Packers’ 33-yard-line after being hit in the backfield. The play gave Green Bay the ball near midfield where they went on to score the eventual winning touchdown. The Steelers never quite recovered.
The Steelers defense, known all year for its ability to make big plays and prevent big plays from the opposition, accomplished neither. Dick LeBeau’s guys were unable to prevent Green Bay from scoring on both chances following Pittsburgh turnovers and were even worse in third down situations. Everyone will remember the 3rd and 10 pass to Greg Jennings in the fourth quarter as one of the key moments of the game, and it certainly was, but the Packers also converted five other critical third downs in the game and completed six passes over 20 yards. It was a poor performance from a unit that was widely considered the league’s best.
The special teams provided solid coverage and some decent returns but did their part in contributing mightily to the Steelers mistakes. Kicker Shaun Suisham missed a 52-yard field goal in the third quarter which would have cut the Packers lead to one. Sure, a 52-yarder is anything but a “gimme”, but indoors with no wind and perfect conditions this kick needs to be made. Suisham choked and kicked it about three miles wide left. Keyaron Fox, the Steelers special teams’ captain no-less, had an indefensible personal foul penalty called on the final kick return. This pushed the Steelers back to their own 13-yard-line to begin their final two-minute drive, one they would ultimately fail on with a chance to win the game.
Super Bowl winners simply do not make these kinds of mistakes. One or two mistakes can be overcome but when you start piling on the amount of mistakes that the Steelers made, in every facet of the game, it becomes near impossible to overcome. The Steelers tried their best to conquer them, nonetheless, and with two minutes and only 87 yards standing in their way they had an opportunity, but once again mistakes got the best of them. The Green Bay Packers deserve to be Super Bowl Champions today but in this game, it really was a case of the Pittsburgh Steelers not deserving.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Super Pick
It is that time to make an official pick for Super Bowl XLV. I thought about breaking this game down Dr. Jack Ramsey style but after two weeks of hearing about every angle of this game I’m guessing most people are just eager for kick-off. So let’s skip the bravado and get straight to the pick.
Everywhere you turn people have a different perspective on this one and with good reason…this game could easily go in a number of different ways. Two of the league’s top offenses go up against two of the league’s best defenses. I don’t think it would surprise anyone if this game ended in a low-scoring affair such as 17-14 or if the great quarterbacks involved began carving up these defenses and it turns into a shootout like the last time these two teams met. One thing that most people do expect, however, is a close game. Count me in that group as well, and for that reason I can’t help but pick the Steelers. I have seen Ben Roethlisberger too many times now with the game on the line elevate his play and lead his team to victory. Aaron Rodgers has shown that ability as well, and maybe this game will be the performance that puts Rodgers on a path towards legendary status just as Steve Young's performance in the Super Bowl some years ago did, but until that happens I am going with the proven guy in Roethlisberger.
Steelers win, 27-23.
Everywhere you turn people have a different perspective on this one and with good reason…this game could easily go in a number of different ways. Two of the league’s top offenses go up against two of the league’s best defenses. I don’t think it would surprise anyone if this game ended in a low-scoring affair such as 17-14 or if the great quarterbacks involved began carving up these defenses and it turns into a shootout like the last time these two teams met. One thing that most people do expect, however, is a close game. Count me in that group as well, and for that reason I can’t help but pick the Steelers. I have seen Ben Roethlisberger too many times now with the game on the line elevate his play and lead his team to victory. Aaron Rodgers has shown that ability as well, and maybe this game will be the performance that puts Rodgers on a path towards legendary status just as Steve Young's performance in the Super Bowl some years ago did, but until that happens I am going with the proven guy in Roethlisberger.
Steelers win, 27-23.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Super Bowl Smorgasbord
The Super Bowl is only three days away now and we are nearly finished with two weeks of over-the-top Super Bowl coverage from ESPN and every other major sports news outlet there is. Before tackling the actual game tomorrow, I wanted to dive into some of the storylines heading into the game and give my thoughts on some of the topics.
· It has been a relatively calm week so far in Dallas with the biggest story being reported on is how the Steelers, namely James Harrison, have attacked Roger Goodell and the NFL office. You know it has been a somewhat boring build-up when we are rehashing the same stories from week five of the regular season. The good news is that the game should more than make up for the lack of great stories heading in.
· The one story that did get a little pub was that a number of Steelers, including Hines Ward and Ike Taylor, were at a strip club Monday night. Any fan that has a problem with the Steelers enjoying themselves six nights before the Super Bowl with an off day following should get a life.
· I read an interesting take (and I forget where it came from now) wondering just why the Packers are the favorite in this game. The writer wondered how the Steelers with the better defense, better quarterback and better running game can be the underdog. That view makes a lot of sense until you remember just how darn good the Packers have looked over their past five games.
· Rod Woodson made a statement last week that Ben Roethlisberger is not a top 5 active quarterback. While I disagree with him completely I could certainly understand someone thinking that Big Ben is not top five if he were to put Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers and Rodgers ahead of him. If nothing else, it is at least a completely defensible point of view. But Big Ben has to be close to that group doesn’t he? Woodson made it sound like Roethlisberger is nowhere near this elite category and defended his statement by saying that Roethlisberger played poorly in his first Super Bowl and that he has more to prove this offseason as a person. Come on Rod…you sounded old and bitter and backed up what could have been a defensible statement with garbage reasons. Woodson was a terrific player, one of the best of all time, but I don’t think he has much of a future as an analyst.
· I have no idea if Woodson even has an interest in being an analyst. My guess is that he does not or he would have already been hired by ESPN for his good looks and total lack of knowledge. If he needs references, Emmit Smith, Michael Irvin and Trent Dilfer are available.
· Normally I would put something about last Sunday’s Pro Bowl here but for at least the fifth straight year I didn’t see a minute of the game. Seriously, why does the NFL insist on playing this game? If they cannot attract hard-core fans like myself and others I know who were not watching, why not do away with the game and have some kind of fun skills competition or something?
· On the Green Bay side of things you want to talk about boring! At least from the Steelers perspective we have Harrison’s fines, Roethlisberger the changed man, whether Pouncey and Aaron Smith will play, Brett Keisel’s beard and even a strip club mention to talk about. Outside of actual football related stuff, there has been nothing fun to talk about happening on the Packers end. I have seen more articles about Brett Favre, Vince Lombardi and Cheeseheads than I have about the current team. We at least learned that B.J. Raji seems like a pretty cool dude.
When I started writing this piece I thought I would have much more to touch on but it has been a relatively quiet build-up towards Super Bowl XLV. For what it’s worth I really think that is a good thing. With the potential to be one of the all-time great Super Bowls it is fantastic that there really are no stories that could overshadow the game. I will be back tomorrow with my abbreviated breakdown of the game and my official prediction. Who knows, there is a chance I could put my Pittsburgh bias aside and pick what has looked like the best team in football over the past month…
· It has been a relatively calm week so far in Dallas with the biggest story being reported on is how the Steelers, namely James Harrison, have attacked Roger Goodell and the NFL office. You know it has been a somewhat boring build-up when we are rehashing the same stories from week five of the regular season. The good news is that the game should more than make up for the lack of great stories heading in.
· The one story that did get a little pub was that a number of Steelers, including Hines Ward and Ike Taylor, were at a strip club Monday night. Any fan that has a problem with the Steelers enjoying themselves six nights before the Super Bowl with an off day following should get a life.
· I read an interesting take (and I forget where it came from now) wondering just why the Packers are the favorite in this game. The writer wondered how the Steelers with the better defense, better quarterback and better running game can be the underdog. That view makes a lot of sense until you remember just how darn good the Packers have looked over their past five games.
· Rod Woodson made a statement last week that Ben Roethlisberger is not a top 5 active quarterback. While I disagree with him completely I could certainly understand someone thinking that Big Ben is not top five if he were to put Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers and Rodgers ahead of him. If nothing else, it is at least a completely defensible point of view. But Big Ben has to be close to that group doesn’t he? Woodson made it sound like Roethlisberger is nowhere near this elite category and defended his statement by saying that Roethlisberger played poorly in his first Super Bowl and that he has more to prove this offseason as a person. Come on Rod…you sounded old and bitter and backed up what could have been a defensible statement with garbage reasons. Woodson was a terrific player, one of the best of all time, but I don’t think he has much of a future as an analyst.
· I have no idea if Woodson even has an interest in being an analyst. My guess is that he does not or he would have already been hired by ESPN for his good looks and total lack of knowledge. If he needs references, Emmit Smith, Michael Irvin and Trent Dilfer are available.
· Normally I would put something about last Sunday’s Pro Bowl here but for at least the fifth straight year I didn’t see a minute of the game. Seriously, why does the NFL insist on playing this game? If they cannot attract hard-core fans like myself and others I know who were not watching, why not do away with the game and have some kind of fun skills competition or something?
· On the Green Bay side of things you want to talk about boring! At least from the Steelers perspective we have Harrison’s fines, Roethlisberger the changed man, whether Pouncey and Aaron Smith will play, Brett Keisel’s beard and even a strip club mention to talk about. Outside of actual football related stuff, there has been nothing fun to talk about happening on the Packers end. I have seen more articles about Brett Favre, Vince Lombardi and Cheeseheads than I have about the current team. We at least learned that B.J. Raji seems like a pretty cool dude.
When I started writing this piece I thought I would have much more to touch on but it has been a relatively quiet build-up towards Super Bowl XLV. For what it’s worth I really think that is a good thing. With the potential to be one of the all-time great Super Bowls it is fantastic that there really are no stories that could overshadow the game. I will be back tomorrow with my abbreviated breakdown of the game and my official prediction. Who knows, there is a chance I could put my Pittsburgh bias aside and pick what has looked like the best team in football over the past month…
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Pens Should be in Great Shape
Before we dive head first into the Super Bowl this week, I thought it might be a good time to take a quick look at the Penguins as they begin the second half, or more appropriately, the post All-Star break portion of their season. The Pens currently sit in fourth place in the Eastern Conference with 66 points and a record of 31-15-4. Dan Bylsma’s bunch sits fourth simply because the three division leaders are seeded one through three, but the Penguins are actually third in the conference in points and only trail second place Tampa Bay by one point with a game in hand. Digging a little deeper, however, and one can see just how good of a position that the Penguins are in.
Through their first 50 games, the Penguins have seen Sidney Crosby miss the last nine games with post-concussion symptoms, Evgeni Malkin miss eight games due to knee and sinus problems and Jordan Staal miss the first 39 games with an infection on his surgically repaired foot and a broken hand. That’s over one-third of the possible man-games that the Penguins have been without at least one of their top three forwards yet they sit with the fourth most points in the entire NHL. The Penguins have only played two games this season with all three of their top forwards in the line-up, the New Year’s Day game loss to the Capitals and an 8-1 beat down of the Lightning. While Malkin’s injured knee has lingered a bit, none of the injuries should hinder the three players’ abilities come playoff time.
To think that the Penguins have been one of the best teams in NHL without one of their best players pretty much every single night has to have the rest of the Eastern Conference worried about how potent this team will be when everyone is healthy. That is because the biggest difference between this team and the Stanley Cup Championship team of just two years ago is their ability on the blue line. Not only do the Penguins feature the playmaking and skating ability of Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski’s shot on the point, and the puck-moving capabilities of newcomer Paul Martin, they are downright stingy in the defensive end. Brooks Orpik is his usual solid self, providing the hitting and defensive zone responsibilities he always does, the other newcomer Zbynek Michalek has been a solid two-way player and the Penguins have received above average play from their sixth defensemen whether that be Ben Lovejoy or Deryk Engelland. The Penguins regular seven defensemen are a combined plus 60 on the year.
Part of that stellar play on the blue line has been the continued development of All-Star goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. It sure seems like an eternity ago that Fleury was off to a rough start with fans calling for the Pens to go with back-up Brent Johnson. Fleury has rebounded to post the league’s fifth best goals-against average at 2.19, sixth best save-percentage at .925 and tied for fifth most wins with 23, only two off the leader. As a team, the Penguins are second in the NHL in goals against trailing only the Boston Bruins by two goals. This is a remarkable improvement from just two years ago when the Penguins were ninth in the Eastern Conference in goals against…and it’s not like the offense has been suffering as a result. The Pens are 3rd in the Conference in goals despite playing without one of their stars on a nightly basis.
I am not suggesting that this team is better than the Stanley Cup championship team of two years ago just yet. That team gelled at the right time, had Malkin playing at a level we haven’t seen since and basically had three different lines all playing at a very high level together. This team, however, has the potential to be as good if not better than that team. It is reasonable to assume that Crosby and Malkin will be back in the near future with time for the lines to get sorted out and accustomed to playing with each other heading into playoffs. If Malkin, who I called out earlier this year as needing to raise his level of play, can return to even close to that 2008 form this team will be just as good in their offensive end as the Cup team while being markedly improved in their own end. Throw in the continued upward ascension form Marc-Andre Fleury and this team has the look of another championship-caliber team.
In a week that we are celebrating the potential championship of one Pittsburgh team, it is very possible we could be breaking down another championship match-up in just a few short months.
Through their first 50 games, the Penguins have seen Sidney Crosby miss the last nine games with post-concussion symptoms, Evgeni Malkin miss eight games due to knee and sinus problems and Jordan Staal miss the first 39 games with an infection on his surgically repaired foot and a broken hand. That’s over one-third of the possible man-games that the Penguins have been without at least one of their top three forwards yet they sit with the fourth most points in the entire NHL. The Penguins have only played two games this season with all three of their top forwards in the line-up, the New Year’s Day game loss to the Capitals and an 8-1 beat down of the Lightning. While Malkin’s injured knee has lingered a bit, none of the injuries should hinder the three players’ abilities come playoff time.
To think that the Penguins have been one of the best teams in NHL without one of their best players pretty much every single night has to have the rest of the Eastern Conference worried about how potent this team will be when everyone is healthy. That is because the biggest difference between this team and the Stanley Cup Championship team of just two years ago is their ability on the blue line. Not only do the Penguins feature the playmaking and skating ability of Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski’s shot on the point, and the puck-moving capabilities of newcomer Paul Martin, they are downright stingy in the defensive end. Brooks Orpik is his usual solid self, providing the hitting and defensive zone responsibilities he always does, the other newcomer Zbynek Michalek has been a solid two-way player and the Penguins have received above average play from their sixth defensemen whether that be Ben Lovejoy or Deryk Engelland. The Penguins regular seven defensemen are a combined plus 60 on the year.
Part of that stellar play on the blue line has been the continued development of All-Star goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. It sure seems like an eternity ago that Fleury was off to a rough start with fans calling for the Pens to go with back-up Brent Johnson. Fleury has rebounded to post the league’s fifth best goals-against average at 2.19, sixth best save-percentage at .925 and tied for fifth most wins with 23, only two off the leader. As a team, the Penguins are second in the NHL in goals against trailing only the Boston Bruins by two goals. This is a remarkable improvement from just two years ago when the Penguins were ninth in the Eastern Conference in goals against…and it’s not like the offense has been suffering as a result. The Pens are 3rd in the Conference in goals despite playing without one of their stars on a nightly basis.
I am not suggesting that this team is better than the Stanley Cup championship team of two years ago just yet. That team gelled at the right time, had Malkin playing at a level we haven’t seen since and basically had three different lines all playing at a very high level together. This team, however, has the potential to be as good if not better than that team. It is reasonable to assume that Crosby and Malkin will be back in the near future with time for the lines to get sorted out and accustomed to playing with each other heading into playoffs. If Malkin, who I called out earlier this year as needing to raise his level of play, can return to even close to that 2008 form this team will be just as good in their offensive end as the Cup team while being markedly improved in their own end. Throw in the continued upward ascension form Marc-Andre Fleury and this team has the look of another championship-caliber team.
In a week that we are celebrating the potential championship of one Pittsburgh team, it is very possible we could be breaking down another championship match-up in just a few short months.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Diving Into College Hoops
Football is coming to an end and while I had watched a good amount of college hoops already, I really threw myself into the action over the past two weeks beginning to gear up for March Madness. Here are some of my take-aways from the past couple of weeks and the season as a whole:
· The best team I have seen so far is Kansas. With all due respect to Duke and Ohio State, this Kansas team just has the look and feel of a great basketball team, similar to the Florida teams that won back-to-back titles a few years ago. The Jayhawks have size, shooting, guard play, depth, coaching and experience, pretty much all of the ingredients to make a deep run. One flaw that I did see was lackadaisical defense at times. A few teams, specifically in the second half against Texas and the game at Colorado, were given way too many open looks for my liking. If the Jayhawks can shore up the defense and keep teams off the offensive glass, Kansas could be cutting down the nets for a second time under Coach Bill Self.
· The one thing Ohio State has that nobody else does is Jared Sullinger. The freshman phenom probably reminds many Pitt fans of DeJuan Blair, only taller and a better shooter. Sullinger is an absolute beast on the boards and has an excellent feel for the game and touch around the basket. Despite his lack of top-end height, I haven’t seen a player yet that could stop Sullinger. The only problem I have with the Buckeyes, and it's more of a Thad Matta problem who is known to play a short rotation, is the lack of a bench. In the tournament if Sullinger, Buford or one of the other top six guys gets in foul trouble, or injured, they could be in trouble. The Oden/Conley team was fortunate enough to avoid injury/foul trouble on their way to the championship game four years ago.
· It is very hard to judge this Duke team without freshman point guard Kyle Irving. With Irving, the Dukies are every bit as good as the Jayhawks and Buckeyes and maybe even better. Without Irving, the Blue Devils become too reliant on Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score that making another run at a championship could be tough. It will be interesting to see whether Irving, who many expect to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft if he declares, comes back from his toe injury and if he does how effective he can be.
· Kansas, OSU and Duke seem to be in the first tier and then a big group of teams sit right behind them in my make-believe rankings. At the top of this next group, however, is Pitt. This Pitt team is the best team in the Jamie Dixon/Ben Howland era in terms of talent one through ten. They probably do not have anyone as good as DeJuan Blair or Sam Young but their top seven or eight players are all as good or better than the rest of that team two years ago. The Panthers have depth, size, and the best pair of guards in Gibbs and Wannamaker that they have had during Dixon’s run as coach. Sure, the Panthers don’t have a Kemba Walker who can carry them for stretches at a time if the team is not playing well, but players of that magnitude don’t necessarily grow on trees. This Pitt team has a fine shot at making its first Final Four trip under Dixon and anything less than at least an Elite Eight appearance would be disappointing.
· Speaking of Kemba Walker, this Connecticut team continues to fly just a bit under the radar. I know the Huskies have been ranked highly for much of the year, but it still seems like many are waiting for them to fall off after beginning the year unranked. A team coached by Jim Calhoun with that size and that great of a player in the backcourt is a legitimate Final Four contender. I would put this Connecticut team on par with Villanova and just behind Pitt in terms of the Big East pecking order.
· As great as Walker and Sullinger have been, my player of the year would absolutely be Jimmer Fredette of BYU. I watched the BYU-San Diego State game the other night in its entirety and came away extremely impressed with both teams. San Diego St. is long, athletic and extremely impressive on both the defensive end and the offensive boards. The Aztecs feature a potential lottery pick of their own in Kawhi Leonard and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see this team make a deep tournament run. The star of the night, however, was Fredette who dropped 43 points on nearly 60% shooting making a variety of difficult three-pointers and lay-ups in traffic. The game was Fredette’s third 40 point effort of the year (and third in his last four games) and for the year the senior is averaging over 27 points per game while shooting nearly 50% from the field. The rest of this BYU team isn’t great, but they are good enough to hit open shots as a result of Fredette’s game and are going to be a team most of the big boys don’t want to see come tourney time.
· Other teams I have been impressed with or am high on include Texas (very physical inside and have very good guards), Villanova (great guard play as usual), Missouri (force teams to play at their pace), Kentucky (Calipari doing it again with freshmen), Florida State (defense, defense, defense) and Georgetown. The Hoyas faltered there a bit over a 2-3 week stretch but seem to be picking their game back up again. If the Hoyas are playing at the top of their game, they could be right there in the Big East with ‘Nova, the ‘Cuse and UConn.
· Teams that I think are overrated or getting a little too much love include Notre Dame (have looked terrible at times and still too unathletic for my liking), Purdue (too reliant on JaJuan Johnson), Illinois (seen them play four times now, no heart and just awful on the road), Louisville (very dangerous, but overly dependent on the three-ball) and Michigan State. I keep expecting Tom Izzo’s bunch to straighten things out but as evidenced in last night’s loss at home versus a bad Michigan team, something just seems to be missing from this team. I think we have all learned not to dismiss the Spartans too soon, but if they don’t get things turned around in a hurry it could be a short trip to the expanded tournament this year, if they get there at all.
· The best team I have seen so far is Kansas. With all due respect to Duke and Ohio State, this Kansas team just has the look and feel of a great basketball team, similar to the Florida teams that won back-to-back titles a few years ago. The Jayhawks have size, shooting, guard play, depth, coaching and experience, pretty much all of the ingredients to make a deep run. One flaw that I did see was lackadaisical defense at times. A few teams, specifically in the second half against Texas and the game at Colorado, were given way too many open looks for my liking. If the Jayhawks can shore up the defense and keep teams off the offensive glass, Kansas could be cutting down the nets for a second time under Coach Bill Self.
· The one thing Ohio State has that nobody else does is Jared Sullinger. The freshman phenom probably reminds many Pitt fans of DeJuan Blair, only taller and a better shooter. Sullinger is an absolute beast on the boards and has an excellent feel for the game and touch around the basket. Despite his lack of top-end height, I haven’t seen a player yet that could stop Sullinger. The only problem I have with the Buckeyes, and it's more of a Thad Matta problem who is known to play a short rotation, is the lack of a bench. In the tournament if Sullinger, Buford or one of the other top six guys gets in foul trouble, or injured, they could be in trouble. The Oden/Conley team was fortunate enough to avoid injury/foul trouble on their way to the championship game four years ago.
· It is very hard to judge this Duke team without freshman point guard Kyle Irving. With Irving, the Dukies are every bit as good as the Jayhawks and Buckeyes and maybe even better. Without Irving, the Blue Devils become too reliant on Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score that making another run at a championship could be tough. It will be interesting to see whether Irving, who many expect to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft if he declares, comes back from his toe injury and if he does how effective he can be.
· Kansas, OSU and Duke seem to be in the first tier and then a big group of teams sit right behind them in my make-believe rankings. At the top of this next group, however, is Pitt. This Pitt team is the best team in the Jamie Dixon/Ben Howland era in terms of talent one through ten. They probably do not have anyone as good as DeJuan Blair or Sam Young but their top seven or eight players are all as good or better than the rest of that team two years ago. The Panthers have depth, size, and the best pair of guards in Gibbs and Wannamaker that they have had during Dixon’s run as coach. Sure, the Panthers don’t have a Kemba Walker who can carry them for stretches at a time if the team is not playing well, but players of that magnitude don’t necessarily grow on trees. This Pitt team has a fine shot at making its first Final Four trip under Dixon and anything less than at least an Elite Eight appearance would be disappointing.
· Speaking of Kemba Walker, this Connecticut team continues to fly just a bit under the radar. I know the Huskies have been ranked highly for much of the year, but it still seems like many are waiting for them to fall off after beginning the year unranked. A team coached by Jim Calhoun with that size and that great of a player in the backcourt is a legitimate Final Four contender. I would put this Connecticut team on par with Villanova and just behind Pitt in terms of the Big East pecking order.
· As great as Walker and Sullinger have been, my player of the year would absolutely be Jimmer Fredette of BYU. I watched the BYU-San Diego State game the other night in its entirety and came away extremely impressed with both teams. San Diego St. is long, athletic and extremely impressive on both the defensive end and the offensive boards. The Aztecs feature a potential lottery pick of their own in Kawhi Leonard and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see this team make a deep tournament run. The star of the night, however, was Fredette who dropped 43 points on nearly 60% shooting making a variety of difficult three-pointers and lay-ups in traffic. The game was Fredette’s third 40 point effort of the year (and third in his last four games) and for the year the senior is averaging over 27 points per game while shooting nearly 50% from the field. The rest of this BYU team isn’t great, but they are good enough to hit open shots as a result of Fredette’s game and are going to be a team most of the big boys don’t want to see come tourney time.
· Other teams I have been impressed with or am high on include Texas (very physical inside and have very good guards), Villanova (great guard play as usual), Missouri (force teams to play at their pace), Kentucky (Calipari doing it again with freshmen), Florida State (defense, defense, defense) and Georgetown. The Hoyas faltered there a bit over a 2-3 week stretch but seem to be picking their game back up again. If the Hoyas are playing at the top of their game, they could be right there in the Big East with ‘Nova, the ‘Cuse and UConn.
· Teams that I think are overrated or getting a little too much love include Notre Dame (have looked terrible at times and still too unathletic for my liking), Purdue (too reliant on JaJuan Johnson), Illinois (seen them play four times now, no heart and just awful on the road), Louisville (very dangerous, but overly dependent on the three-ball) and Michigan State. I keep expecting Tom Izzo’s bunch to straighten things out but as evidenced in last night’s loss at home versus a bad Michigan team, something just seems to be missing from this team. I think we have all learned not to dismiss the Spartans too soon, but if they don’t get things turned around in a hurry it could be a short trip to the expanded tournament this year, if they get there at all.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Changing of the Guard?
There are going to be thousands of articles, stories and features covering pretty much every angle of the Super Bowl in the next two weeks that I would rather leave to others. There is one subject that I want to touch on before taking the next week to catch up on other things happening around the sports world before diving into the Super Bowl coverage full throttle next week. That subject is one that I enjoy talking about the most in sports - the quarterback position. In particular, are we seeing a changing of the guard at the top of the NFL’s pecking order?
Sure, Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl just a year ago and Tom Brady just completed what is soon to be another MVP season, but Manning and Brady will be 35 and 34-years-old, respectively, when the season begins next year (I guess at this point we need to start saying IF THE SEASON BEGINS NEXT YEAR). Clearly each has a few great years left in him and if Brett Favre is an example with his career year at the age of 40, maybe even another five or six years of very productive football left. Needless to say, however, both have seen their youth and, most likely, the peak of their physical abilities in the rear-view mirror.
Tom Brady and his Patriots have lost their last three postseason contests, including two of those at home. Peyton Manning owns a career losing record in the playoffs, also suffering defeat in his last two outings. Both have time to add to their unbelievable legacies, and the race to be called to the greatest of all time is still on, but the windows for these all time greats could perhaps be starting to narrow. The Colts look like a team that needs a good amount of roster work to get back to their Super Bowl level of last year. Meanwhile, while it is true that the Patriots look very well positioned for the future, let’s not forget that Brady is already working on one surgically repaired knee and as the Jets playoff game showed, he can be a sitting duck in the pocket.
I am in no way trying to minimize the accomplishments of two, if not the two, greatest quarterbacks of all time. Words don’t do justice to the greatness of the two quarterbacks, and as of today I would consider each of their teams to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites for next year because of them. I am simply stating that we may finally be seeing a changing of the guard as the premier NFL QBs of today. To illustrate…
Ben Roethlisberger is not yet 29 and Aaron Rodgers just recently turned 27. Both are just entering what has become the historical peak years for a quarterback of 28-34 years old, and in Rodgers case he has not even hit that magic number yet.
I have long maintained that Roethlisberger would be #3 on my list of top NFL quarterbacks and it may now be time to start including him in the conversation with Manning and Brady. In seven years, Roethlisberger has now won two Super Bowls with a chance at a third, been to four AFC Championships, is the owner of a 10-2 career postseason record, a 69-29 regular season record and a career passer rating of 92.5, good for 8th all-time. Did I mention that he is only entering what are believed to be a quarterback’s peak years? Did I mention that stats only tell half of the story with Roethlisberger, a guy who keeps plays alive with his legs and always seems to elevate his play when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 19 comeback victories including his best comeback in Super Bowl XLIII?
As for Rodgers, it is still entirely too early to put him on the level of Manning, Brady or even Roethlisberger at this point historically, but it is becoming harder and harder not to recognize the Hall of Fame talent he is working with. On top of that career passer rating list sits Rodgers at 98.4, ahead of legendary names like Young, Montana, Marino and the aforementioned three greats of today. Rodgers play this postseason has been nothing short of greatness and that play, combined with last year’s performance in the shootout loss to the Cardinals, has Rodgers on top of the career postseason passer rating list as well. Rodgers has a long way to go historically to be mentioned in the same breath as Manning and Brady, but it is almost impossible to argue that he is not playing on the same level as those guys today.
In today’s modern era, with linebackers and defensive ends running 4.5 second forty-yard-dashes and defensive schemes becoming ever more complex, it has become almost essential for quarterbacks to make plays with their legs, both running the football and getting outside the pocket to make plays down the field with their arms. No one performs this aspect of the position better than Roethlisberger and Rodgers, not even Michael Vick who is more of a runner than a scrambler. What Brady and Manning have on the young guns in terms of reading defenses and quick releases, Rodgers and Big Ben more than make up for with their play-making abilities. I mention this only as further proof that it is possible a changing of the guard is taking place. We watched Manning and Brady being hit play after play against the Jets who knew where they would be in the pocket, then watched as Roethlisberger made the two biggest plays of the second half by avoiding rushes and getting outside of the pocket. As this era continues to progress, it will become more essential for quarterbacks to have this escape ability, and both Rodgers and Roethlisberger excel in this regard.
At the end of the day, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and are still probably the best two quarterbacks of today. The day is coming, however, that will not be the case and my guess is that this Super Bowl is a preview as to who their two replacements will be as we carry on the argument for the NFL’s best quarterback.
Sure, Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl just a year ago and Tom Brady just completed what is soon to be another MVP season, but Manning and Brady will be 35 and 34-years-old, respectively, when the season begins next year (I guess at this point we need to start saying IF THE SEASON BEGINS NEXT YEAR). Clearly each has a few great years left in him and if Brett Favre is an example with his career year at the age of 40, maybe even another five or six years of very productive football left. Needless to say, however, both have seen their youth and, most likely, the peak of their physical abilities in the rear-view mirror.
Tom Brady and his Patriots have lost their last three postseason contests, including two of those at home. Peyton Manning owns a career losing record in the playoffs, also suffering defeat in his last two outings. Both have time to add to their unbelievable legacies, and the race to be called to the greatest of all time is still on, but the windows for these all time greats could perhaps be starting to narrow. The Colts look like a team that needs a good amount of roster work to get back to their Super Bowl level of last year. Meanwhile, while it is true that the Patriots look very well positioned for the future, let’s not forget that Brady is already working on one surgically repaired knee and as the Jets playoff game showed, he can be a sitting duck in the pocket.
I am in no way trying to minimize the accomplishments of two, if not the two, greatest quarterbacks of all time. Words don’t do justice to the greatness of the two quarterbacks, and as of today I would consider each of their teams to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites for next year because of them. I am simply stating that we may finally be seeing a changing of the guard as the premier NFL QBs of today. To illustrate…
Ben Roethlisberger is not yet 29 and Aaron Rodgers just recently turned 27. Both are just entering what has become the historical peak years for a quarterback of 28-34 years old, and in Rodgers case he has not even hit that magic number yet.
I have long maintained that Roethlisberger would be #3 on my list of top NFL quarterbacks and it may now be time to start including him in the conversation with Manning and Brady. In seven years, Roethlisberger has now won two Super Bowls with a chance at a third, been to four AFC Championships, is the owner of a 10-2 career postseason record, a 69-29 regular season record and a career passer rating of 92.5, good for 8th all-time. Did I mention that he is only entering what are believed to be a quarterback’s peak years? Did I mention that stats only tell half of the story with Roethlisberger, a guy who keeps plays alive with his legs and always seems to elevate his play when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 19 comeback victories including his best comeback in Super Bowl XLIII?
As for Rodgers, it is still entirely too early to put him on the level of Manning, Brady or even Roethlisberger at this point historically, but it is becoming harder and harder not to recognize the Hall of Fame talent he is working with. On top of that career passer rating list sits Rodgers at 98.4, ahead of legendary names like Young, Montana, Marino and the aforementioned three greats of today. Rodgers play this postseason has been nothing short of greatness and that play, combined with last year’s performance in the shootout loss to the Cardinals, has Rodgers on top of the career postseason passer rating list as well. Rodgers has a long way to go historically to be mentioned in the same breath as Manning and Brady, but it is almost impossible to argue that he is not playing on the same level as those guys today.
In today’s modern era, with linebackers and defensive ends running 4.5 second forty-yard-dashes and defensive schemes becoming ever more complex, it has become almost essential for quarterbacks to make plays with their legs, both running the football and getting outside the pocket to make plays down the field with their arms. No one performs this aspect of the position better than Roethlisberger and Rodgers, not even Michael Vick who is more of a runner than a scrambler. What Brady and Manning have on the young guns in terms of reading defenses and quick releases, Rodgers and Big Ben more than make up for with their play-making abilities. I mention this only as further proof that it is possible a changing of the guard is taking place. We watched Manning and Brady being hit play after play against the Jets who knew where they would be in the pocket, then watched as Roethlisberger made the two biggest plays of the second half by avoiding rushes and getting outside of the pocket. As this era continues to progress, it will become more essential for quarterbacks to have this escape ability, and both Rodgers and Roethlisberger excel in this regard.
At the end of the day, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and are still probably the best two quarterbacks of today. The day is coming, however, that will not be the case and my guess is that this Super Bowl is a preview as to who their two replacements will be as we carry on the argument for the NFL’s best quarterback.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Conference Championship Picks
I am going to keep this short and sweet as I know there are only about one million and four different articles, game match-ups and feature stories on the AFC and NFC Championship games that have been written this week. What I can promise you is that there is going to be at least one convincing win this weekend. I say this because every year since 2002 one of the two conference championship games has been decided by two scores or more and in four of those eight years both games have been one-sided. The last four years, however, has seen one convincing victory and one close game decided by seven points or less. I think this trend continues and we see one lopsided victory and one close game. Here are the picks…
New York at Pittsburgh (-3)
Haven’t we been here before? Sanchez is being praised for going on the road and knocking off two supposedly superior teams. Rex Ryan is a defensive genius and Darrelle Revis is the best cornerback in the league. Well that last sentence is true, but this has all the feelings of last year’s AFC Championship Game when the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning ended the Jets’ Super Bowl dreams. Ben Roethlisberger is going to make plays with his feet unlike Manning and Brady were capable of the past two weeks and the Jets defense is going to be pressured in a way they haven’t seen all year. I expect big plays from both the offense and defense in a fairly convincing Steelers victory. Pick: Steelers (-3.5).
Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago
Well if you read the opening paragraph you can probably guess that I think this is going to be a close game. I love Aaron Rodgers, I love the Packers’ offensive weapons and I love that attacking defense, but going on the road against a very good to great Bears defense, playing on terrible field conditions and facing a team that feels like it is us against the world is going to be an awfully difficult task for the Packers. I think this game comes down to the fourth quarter, and I think it is decided by one score. The difference, however, will be Rodgers. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter I have trust in the Packers QB to make a play while I have no such confidence in Jay Cutler. I wish the line in this one was three, but I am going to stick by Green Bay and hope they pull this one out by a touchdown. Pick: Packers (-3.5).
New York at Pittsburgh (-3)
Haven’t we been here before? Sanchez is being praised for going on the road and knocking off two supposedly superior teams. Rex Ryan is a defensive genius and Darrelle Revis is the best cornerback in the league. Well that last sentence is true, but this has all the feelings of last year’s AFC Championship Game when the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning ended the Jets’ Super Bowl dreams. Ben Roethlisberger is going to make plays with his feet unlike Manning and Brady were capable of the past two weeks and the Jets defense is going to be pressured in a way they haven’t seen all year. I expect big plays from both the offense and defense in a fairly convincing Steelers victory. Pick: Steelers (-3.5).
Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago
Well if you read the opening paragraph you can probably guess that I think this is going to be a close game. I love Aaron Rodgers, I love the Packers’ offensive weapons and I love that attacking defense, but going on the road against a very good to great Bears defense, playing on terrible field conditions and facing a team that feels like it is us against the world is going to be an awfully difficult task for the Packers. I think this game comes down to the fourth quarter, and I think it is decided by one score. The difference, however, will be Rodgers. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter I have trust in the Packers QB to make a play while I have no such confidence in Jay Cutler. I wish the line in this one was three, but I am going to stick by Green Bay and hope they pull this one out by a touchdown. Pick: Packers (-3.5).
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Ten Observations from the Divisional Round
1. I have been to pretty much every Steelers home playoff game since 1995 and certainly every one with the exception of maybe one or two since Heinz Field opened and I can say without a doubt that was the best home crowd in Heinz Field’s history. I don’t know if it was the extra 3,000 seats that were added, or if those seats helped to hold some of the noise in on the open end, or the fact those bleachers made everyone sit in their own seats instead of hanging out under the scoreboard, or maybe even just the shell-shock of being down 21-7 at halftime that made everyone explode in that second half, but that was the loudest I have ever heard Heinz Field. It was probably the third best playoff game I have attended behind the two AFC championship game wins, which are altogether different.
2. The difference, as I and many expected, was Ben Roethlisberger once again. That 58 yard bomb to Antonio Brown on 3rd and 19 was an absolute thing of beauty.
3. Gun to my head and I had to win a football game tomorrow, I would still choose Manning, Brady and Roethlisberger in that order, but I would have to think awfully hard about Aaron Rodgers at this point. He’s playing as well as any of those guys right now and is just oozing with ability and confidence.
4. Between celebrating the Steelers win, getting some dinner and getting over to the bar I was not able to see all of the Packers-Falcons game. I think some of the Falcons players probably feel the same way…
5. It was interesting to see what happened to the Bears defense in the fourth quarter on Sunday. Should we ignore Matt Hasselbeck carving up the secondary, chalk it up to the big lead and taking the foot off the pedal or was it showing us something more that we could see Rodgers taking advantage of this week?
6. Jay Cutler won his first postseason game since high school…and you were wondering why the Packers are three point road favorites?
7. As great as Tom Brady is, and he should be in everyone’s top five QBs of all time at the minimum, can anyone think of the great comebacks he has had? I know there have been a few, but it just doesn’t seem like he brings his team back the way you always expect Manning or Roethlisberger to do. Brady seems to either have it or not (and almost always he does), but when he doesn’t he usually doesn’t recover. That is three straight playoff losses for Brady and Belichick by the way.
8. Even the best coach in the world screws up sometimes. Trailing by ten, the Patriots should have kicked a field goal when they reached the Jets 18 yard line or so. If they would have spiked the ball after Gronkowski’s first down catch and immediately kicked the field goal, they would have been trailing by seven with over two and a half minutes to go. The Patriots could have then kicked off deep and potentially held the Jets to a punt following the two minute warning. Instead, the Patriots ran three more plays, wasted the two minute warning and settled for a field goal anyways forcing their hand with an onside kick. I am not saying this after the fact either; I was telling everyone I was with that they should kick right then as it happened. It never ceases to amaze me how often these coaches screw up these situations.
9. The conference championship games will feature Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago and New York…four of the top six defenses in the league in terms of scoring and four of the top nine in yardage. Who says defense doesn’t win championships?!?
10. Mark Sanchez is getting a ton of credit for his performance Sunday, and deservedly so, but if you are a Steelers fan I don’t think you could have asked for a better situation in the AFC Championship game. Sanchez was terrible against the Colts, looked pretty bad in the first few possessions against the Patriots until he hit a couple of big plays, and really struggles against the blitz. The Jets should not be able to run the football putting everything on Sanchez’ shoulders. That should make Steelers fans feel pretty good inside.
2. The difference, as I and many expected, was Ben Roethlisberger once again. That 58 yard bomb to Antonio Brown on 3rd and 19 was an absolute thing of beauty.
3. Gun to my head and I had to win a football game tomorrow, I would still choose Manning, Brady and Roethlisberger in that order, but I would have to think awfully hard about Aaron Rodgers at this point. He’s playing as well as any of those guys right now and is just oozing with ability and confidence.
4. Between celebrating the Steelers win, getting some dinner and getting over to the bar I was not able to see all of the Packers-Falcons game. I think some of the Falcons players probably feel the same way…
5. It was interesting to see what happened to the Bears defense in the fourth quarter on Sunday. Should we ignore Matt Hasselbeck carving up the secondary, chalk it up to the big lead and taking the foot off the pedal or was it showing us something more that we could see Rodgers taking advantage of this week?
6. Jay Cutler won his first postseason game since high school…and you were wondering why the Packers are three point road favorites?
7. As great as Tom Brady is, and he should be in everyone’s top five QBs of all time at the minimum, can anyone think of the great comebacks he has had? I know there have been a few, but it just doesn’t seem like he brings his team back the way you always expect Manning or Roethlisberger to do. Brady seems to either have it or not (and almost always he does), but when he doesn’t he usually doesn’t recover. That is three straight playoff losses for Brady and Belichick by the way.
8. Even the best coach in the world screws up sometimes. Trailing by ten, the Patriots should have kicked a field goal when they reached the Jets 18 yard line or so. If they would have spiked the ball after Gronkowski’s first down catch and immediately kicked the field goal, they would have been trailing by seven with over two and a half minutes to go. The Patriots could have then kicked off deep and potentially held the Jets to a punt following the two minute warning. Instead, the Patriots ran three more plays, wasted the two minute warning and settled for a field goal anyways forcing their hand with an onside kick. I am not saying this after the fact either; I was telling everyone I was with that they should kick right then as it happened. It never ceases to amaze me how often these coaches screw up these situations.
9. The conference championship games will feature Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago and New York…four of the top six defenses in the league in terms of scoring and four of the top nine in yardage. Who says defense doesn’t win championships?!?
10. Mark Sanchez is getting a ton of credit for his performance Sunday, and deservedly so, but if you are a Steelers fan I don’t think you could have asked for a better situation in the AFC Championship game. Sanchez was terrible against the Colts, looked pretty bad in the first few possessions against the Patriots until he hit a couple of big plays, and really struggles against the blitz. The Jets should not be able to run the football putting everything on Sanchez’ shoulders. That should make Steelers fans feel pretty good inside.
Friday, January 14, 2011
NFL Divisional Round Picks
Well I went 2-2 last week angering myself for not picking the Jets. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week…
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)
We have been hearing all week how equal these two teams are and how closely every game that they play has been. What we haven’t heard is that the Ravens have never won a playoff game against Pittsburgh, that Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens and 5-0 against Joe Flacco and that the Steelers have never lost (8-0) a playoff game when playing a divisional opponent. I will bare you the details so I don’t sound like a homer, but the difference in this one is Roethlisberger. Picks: Steelers (-3).
Green Bay at Atlanta (-2.5)
This game should be the conference championship but we’ll have to settle for it in the divisional round. As many of you already know I have been on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers bandwagon since the beginning of the season. I have also been on Mike McCarthy’s case since the beginning of the season. No point in changing now…I think the best player on the field in this one will be Rodgers and he gives the Pack a decided advantage despite Matt Ryan’s 20-2 career record at home. I also cringe thinking about a dumb McCarthy decision in the second half of this game that swings this one in favor of the Falcons – who, by the way, are flying way too far under the radar right now. Expect the Packers defense to shut down Michael Turner making the Falcons’ balanced offense one-dimensional and for Rodgers to make one more play than Ryan. Pick: Packers (+2.5).
Seattle at Chicago (-10)
The Seahawks shocked the world last week, well if not the world than at least me, putting new emphasis on the ‘nobody believed in us’ theory. From my perspective, however, last week was a classic “Any Given Sunday” moment for the Seahawks who I expect to come back to earth this week. Remember, in the Seahawks nine losses this year the average margin of defeat was 21 points and no loss was by fewer than 15 points. The Bears defense will shut down Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle running game and I don’t expect Matt Hasselbeck to play anywhere near the game he played last week. The only thing that could stop the Bears from winning this one comfortably is a couple of untimely interceptions by Jay Cutler, something that is entirely possible, but something that I do not think happens until next week. Pick: Bears (-10).
New York at New England (-9)
Have to give Rex Ryan and the Jets credit for not changing who they are. I don’t think I would be going around talking smack after the butt-whooping they received from the Patriots last month but that hasn’t stopped Ryan or his players from running their mouths. Since football isn’t a game won with your mouth, let’s talk a little football. There are two big things working against the Jets in this one. One is Bell Belichick, the best football coach on the planet. Belichick has had two weeks to prepare his team for this one and knows the Jets’ schemes inside and out. You know the Patriots will come prepared and put in the right position to win. The other thing going against the Jets, and this is the big one, is their quarterback Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked terrible last week in the absolutely perfect setting for a road game. How can we possibly expect anything from him this week against a well rested Patriots defense in the cold, windy conditions of Foxboro? Brady will use his tight ends and Wes Welker across the middle to once again expose the safeties and linebackers of the Jets and the Pats pull away late for a comfortable win. Pick: Patriots (-9).
(Regular Season: 127-122-7; Playoffs: 2-2)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)
We have been hearing all week how equal these two teams are and how closely every game that they play has been. What we haven’t heard is that the Ravens have never won a playoff game against Pittsburgh, that Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens and 5-0 against Joe Flacco and that the Steelers have never lost (8-0) a playoff game when playing a divisional opponent. I will bare you the details so I don’t sound like a homer, but the difference in this one is Roethlisberger. Picks: Steelers (-3).
Green Bay at Atlanta (-2.5)
This game should be the conference championship but we’ll have to settle for it in the divisional round. As many of you already know I have been on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers bandwagon since the beginning of the season. I have also been on Mike McCarthy’s case since the beginning of the season. No point in changing now…I think the best player on the field in this one will be Rodgers and he gives the Pack a decided advantage despite Matt Ryan’s 20-2 career record at home. I also cringe thinking about a dumb McCarthy decision in the second half of this game that swings this one in favor of the Falcons – who, by the way, are flying way too far under the radar right now. Expect the Packers defense to shut down Michael Turner making the Falcons’ balanced offense one-dimensional and for Rodgers to make one more play than Ryan. Pick: Packers (+2.5).
Seattle at Chicago (-10)
The Seahawks shocked the world last week, well if not the world than at least me, putting new emphasis on the ‘nobody believed in us’ theory. From my perspective, however, last week was a classic “Any Given Sunday” moment for the Seahawks who I expect to come back to earth this week. Remember, in the Seahawks nine losses this year the average margin of defeat was 21 points and no loss was by fewer than 15 points. The Bears defense will shut down Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle running game and I don’t expect Matt Hasselbeck to play anywhere near the game he played last week. The only thing that could stop the Bears from winning this one comfortably is a couple of untimely interceptions by Jay Cutler, something that is entirely possible, but something that I do not think happens until next week. Pick: Bears (-10).
New York at New England (-9)
Have to give Rex Ryan and the Jets credit for not changing who they are. I don’t think I would be going around talking smack after the butt-whooping they received from the Patriots last month but that hasn’t stopped Ryan or his players from running their mouths. Since football isn’t a game won with your mouth, let’s talk a little football. There are two big things working against the Jets in this one. One is Bell Belichick, the best football coach on the planet. Belichick has had two weeks to prepare his team for this one and knows the Jets’ schemes inside and out. You know the Patriots will come prepared and put in the right position to win. The other thing going against the Jets, and this is the big one, is their quarterback Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked terrible last week in the absolutely perfect setting for a road game. How can we possibly expect anything from him this week against a well rested Patriots defense in the cold, windy conditions of Foxboro? Brady will use his tight ends and Wes Welker across the middle to once again expose the safeties and linebackers of the Jets and the Pats pull away late for a comfortable win. Pick: Patriots (-9).
(Regular Season: 127-122-7; Playoffs: 2-2)
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
NFL Postseason Smorgasbord
The NFL Wild Card weekend featured three games that came down to the wire and a blow-out in Kansas City which sets up the rubber matches in the AFC and a couple of rematches in the NFC. Here are my thoughts on the weekend that was and a little bit on the Divisional Round upcoming:
· I am kicking myself for not pulling the trigger on the Jets for my official picks (my actual wager, had gabling been legal, was theoretically on the Jets, again if sports betting were legal). I knew they had the better team and matched up extremely well versus a banged up Colts team. I just couldn’t get over the Manning against Sanchez factor on Friday when I made my picks. Manning did play a pretty good game and Sanchez flat out stunk, but it was the Jets ability to put the ball in the end zone while the Colts settled for field goals in the second half that made the difference.
· If Sanchez stunk inside a dome, against a pretty vanilla Colts’ defensive scheme and with his running backs churning out well over four yards a run, how do you think Sanchez is going to fare in the freezing, blustering conditions of Foxboro against a Bell Belichick coached defense?
· I get the impression that Rex Ryan knows this and is trying to deflect attention away from his quarterback by his trash talking. That or he just doesn’t know how to shut up. 50/50 on that one I guess…but seriously, Rex, how can you run your mouth after what the Patriots did to you just a few weeks ago?
· I am not kicking myself for picking the Saints over the Seahawks. If you saw that game coming you are flat-out lying, or you are one of those people that kind-of predict things during the week by saying things like, “I don’t know, the Seahawks are at home”, just so you can say “I told you so if the unexpected thing happens.” If your money was on the line Saturday, I bet you had the Saints (pardon the pun!).
· I thought there was a chance Seattle could hang a little if they could run the ball, take time off the clock and get their crowd into it by hanging around early but no way did I think they could win without a few fluke plays or special teams’ gaffes by the Saints. The game went completely opposite of anything I thought….the Saints jumped out to a 10-0 and 17-7 lead, only had the one turnover which was only converted into 3 points by the ‘Hawks, Drew Brees was fantastic, and yet the Seahawks came away victorious. I am still flabbergasted by it.
· The reason Seattle was able to win was the superb downfield passing by Matt Hasselbeck. I think the veteran QB got a little lucky on a couple of those throws, which looked more like hot-air balloons, falling perfectly into his receivers arms but that doesn’t take away anything from what he did Saturday. The guy has been a good quarterback in the NFL for a long time.
· One thing the Seahawks win did uphold is that each of their losses has still occurred by 15 points or more. I guess you can take that as a little foreshadowing for Friday’s picks.
· There is really not much to say about the Ravens and Chiefs. The game went pretty much as I, and most others, expected it to go. Although the final score did get a little more out of hand than I anticipated. Expecting Matt Cassel to beat that Ravens defense in his first career playoff start was asking a bit much even for the most diehard Chiefs fans out there.
· Joe Flacco is now 4-2 in the postseason despite having yet to play a home playoff game in his three years. I thought it was kind of telling, however, that his 196 yards passing at halftime were the most he had ever thrown for in a playoff game (Flacco finished with 265 yards passing). The Ravens will need to continue to take the kiddy gloves off of their QB if they expect to win in Pittsburgh this week. Anything short of a great effort from Flacco and it’s going to be tough against the Steelers, who appear to be playing their best football of the season heading into the playoffs.
· I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if we do see a great performance from Flacco this week as he looks to be coming nicely into his own.
· Lastly, I thought the Packers were the vastly superior team to the Eagles on Sunday but Mike McCarthy did his best once again to allow the Eagles to hang around. Mike, why would you not call time out with nearly two minutes remaining in the first half after stopping the Eagles on 3rd down? Why did you go conservative in the fourth quarter allowing the Eagles a chance with the ball in the final two minutes to win the game?
· I really don’t think McCarthy is a bad coach. In fact, I think he is an excellent offensive mind and a pretty good play-caller. His vertical passing game is fantastic, I love his sense of timing on the screen passes (like the one in the red zone in which Brandon Jackson scored), and I love his ability to manufacture a running game with different formations and looks. I just don’t understand his game management often times. He has Aaron Rodgers, a legitimate superstar and on the fast track to being one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL. McCarthy needs to get out of the way and let Rodgers do his thing as often as possible. I love the Pack’s chances this week but if I were a Packers’ fan the biggest thing I would fear right now is McCarthy’s game management skills.
· It was a fun ride for Michael Vick and company but the jury remains out if you can win a Super Bowl with him as your quarterback. Don’t take that the wrong way; Vick is a fantastic quarterback who almost guarantees you a playoff spot on his own if he is healthy. I am talking about taking that next step to being great, the ability to lead your team to victory in a tough spot when everything hasn’t gone your way. We have seen Brady do it numerous times...Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger have all done it, and it is what separates the these guys from the rest. Vick still has not proven he can do it and I am not sure he ever will.
· That’s it for today. I will be back Friday for a breakdown of the Divisional Round and if you can read between the lines above you can probably guess which way I am leaning on the four games.
· I am kicking myself for not pulling the trigger on the Jets for my official picks (my actual wager, had gabling been legal, was theoretically on the Jets, again if sports betting were legal). I knew they had the better team and matched up extremely well versus a banged up Colts team. I just couldn’t get over the Manning against Sanchez factor on Friday when I made my picks. Manning did play a pretty good game and Sanchez flat out stunk, but it was the Jets ability to put the ball in the end zone while the Colts settled for field goals in the second half that made the difference.
· If Sanchez stunk inside a dome, against a pretty vanilla Colts’ defensive scheme and with his running backs churning out well over four yards a run, how do you think Sanchez is going to fare in the freezing, blustering conditions of Foxboro against a Bell Belichick coached defense?
· I get the impression that Rex Ryan knows this and is trying to deflect attention away from his quarterback by his trash talking. That or he just doesn’t know how to shut up. 50/50 on that one I guess…but seriously, Rex, how can you run your mouth after what the Patriots did to you just a few weeks ago?
· I am not kicking myself for picking the Saints over the Seahawks. If you saw that game coming you are flat-out lying, or you are one of those people that kind-of predict things during the week by saying things like, “I don’t know, the Seahawks are at home”, just so you can say “I told you so if the unexpected thing happens.” If your money was on the line Saturday, I bet you had the Saints (pardon the pun!).
· I thought there was a chance Seattle could hang a little if they could run the ball, take time off the clock and get their crowd into it by hanging around early but no way did I think they could win without a few fluke plays or special teams’ gaffes by the Saints. The game went completely opposite of anything I thought….the Saints jumped out to a 10-0 and 17-7 lead, only had the one turnover which was only converted into 3 points by the ‘Hawks, Drew Brees was fantastic, and yet the Seahawks came away victorious. I am still flabbergasted by it.
· The reason Seattle was able to win was the superb downfield passing by Matt Hasselbeck. I think the veteran QB got a little lucky on a couple of those throws, which looked more like hot-air balloons, falling perfectly into his receivers arms but that doesn’t take away anything from what he did Saturday. The guy has been a good quarterback in the NFL for a long time.
· One thing the Seahawks win did uphold is that each of their losses has still occurred by 15 points or more. I guess you can take that as a little foreshadowing for Friday’s picks.
· There is really not much to say about the Ravens and Chiefs. The game went pretty much as I, and most others, expected it to go. Although the final score did get a little more out of hand than I anticipated. Expecting Matt Cassel to beat that Ravens defense in his first career playoff start was asking a bit much even for the most diehard Chiefs fans out there.
· Joe Flacco is now 4-2 in the postseason despite having yet to play a home playoff game in his three years. I thought it was kind of telling, however, that his 196 yards passing at halftime were the most he had ever thrown for in a playoff game (Flacco finished with 265 yards passing). The Ravens will need to continue to take the kiddy gloves off of their QB if they expect to win in Pittsburgh this week. Anything short of a great effort from Flacco and it’s going to be tough against the Steelers, who appear to be playing their best football of the season heading into the playoffs.
· I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if we do see a great performance from Flacco this week as he looks to be coming nicely into his own.
· Lastly, I thought the Packers were the vastly superior team to the Eagles on Sunday but Mike McCarthy did his best once again to allow the Eagles to hang around. Mike, why would you not call time out with nearly two minutes remaining in the first half after stopping the Eagles on 3rd down? Why did you go conservative in the fourth quarter allowing the Eagles a chance with the ball in the final two minutes to win the game?
· I really don’t think McCarthy is a bad coach. In fact, I think he is an excellent offensive mind and a pretty good play-caller. His vertical passing game is fantastic, I love his sense of timing on the screen passes (like the one in the red zone in which Brandon Jackson scored), and I love his ability to manufacture a running game with different formations and looks. I just don’t understand his game management often times. He has Aaron Rodgers, a legitimate superstar and on the fast track to being one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL. McCarthy needs to get out of the way and let Rodgers do his thing as often as possible. I love the Pack’s chances this week but if I were a Packers’ fan the biggest thing I would fear right now is McCarthy’s game management skills.
· It was a fun ride for Michael Vick and company but the jury remains out if you can win a Super Bowl with him as your quarterback. Don’t take that the wrong way; Vick is a fantastic quarterback who almost guarantees you a playoff spot on his own if he is healthy. I am talking about taking that next step to being great, the ability to lead your team to victory in a tough spot when everything hasn’t gone your way. We have seen Brady do it numerous times...Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger have all done it, and it is what separates the these guys from the rest. Vick still has not proven he can do it and I am not sure he ever will.
· That’s it for today. I will be back Friday for a breakdown of the Divisional Round and if you can read between the lines above you can probably guess which way I am leaning on the four games.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Ben Fantastic; Smorgasbord Tomorrow
I am backed up today in the real world so I will have to postpone the NFL Smorgasbord for tomorrow...but I leave you with this article from KC Joyner (aka The Football Scientist) showing how truly great Ben Roethlisberger has been. I am not sure I would put him on Brady's level, as Joyner does, but I have been saying for years he is the third best quarterback in the league.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6011130
You need an ESPN Insider account to read the article but if you don't have an insider account, here is a snippet:
"In other words, Roethlisberger is piloting a high-risk/high-reward offense. A solid bad decision rate for a quarterback of that nature would be in the 2.5-to-3 percent range and Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total is well below that. Brady's 1.3 percent mark is just as superb (a 2.0 percent total is considered good for dink/dunk offenses) but when this context is applied, it is clear that his lead in this metric is fairly negligible at best.
And that's the story with pretty much any measurement one can come up with to compare Roethlisberger and Brady both for this season and their careers. The biggest exception to this might be that Brady has three Super Bowl rings to Roethlisberger's two, but the second-biggest exception is that Roethlisberger is 4½ years younger -- he has a lot more time to make up the title gap than Brady has to extend it."
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6011130
You need an ESPN Insider account to read the article but if you don't have an insider account, here is a snippet:
"In other words, Roethlisberger is piloting a high-risk/high-reward offense. A solid bad decision rate for a quarterback of that nature would be in the 2.5-to-3 percent range and Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total is well below that. Brady's 1.3 percent mark is just as superb (a 2.0 percent total is considered good for dink/dunk offenses) but when this context is applied, it is clear that his lead in this metric is fairly negligible at best.
And that's the story with pretty much any measurement one can come up with to compare Roethlisberger and Brady both for this season and their careers. The biggest exception to this might be that Brady has three Super Bowl rings to Roethlisberger's two, but the second-biggest exception is that Roethlisberger is 4½ years younger -- he has a lot more time to make up the title gap than Brady has to extend it."
Monday, January 10, 2011
BCS National Championship Preview and Prediction
NFL Wild Card weekend is over but there is just one little, itty-bitty, tiny football game to be played tonight, the BCS National Championship game. Don’t worry, I’ll have plenty of thoughts on the NFL weekend in tomorrow’s Playoff Smorgasbord but today, let’s focus on the college gridiron where what has to be the most highly anticipated National Championship game since Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and USC took on Vince Young and Texas back in the 2006 Rose Bowl is set to occur.
Tonight’s game features Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who has had the best individual season I have witnessed in my lifetime, and the undefeated Auburn Tigers squaring off against LaMichael James, the 3rd place finisher in the Heisman voting, Darron Thomas and the high-powered, high-octane Oregon Ducks who just so happen to be undefeated as well. If it hadn’t been 37 days or whatever it has been since the last time these teams took the field, I might just have goosebumps in anticipation of watching this game. If you leave your seat to get a beer from the fridge, you might just miss a TD…and that is no knock on these defenses that have both been fantastic as well.
So who wins? Let’s break it down…
Oregon Offense vs. Auburn Defense: Even though Oregon plays on the West Coast, I am sure most people have seen the Ducks play at least a couple of times this year and are familiar with the pace that the Ducks like to run their offense. Coach Chip Kelly wants to have the next play snapped within 15 seconds of the previous play ending. This puts an enormous amount of pressure on the defense to get their call in, get lined up and to stop what is already an enormously talented offense. The Ducks have playmakers everywhere with James and Kenyon Barner in the backfield, Darron Thomas, the dual-threat QB, and a host of WRs that all seem faster than the next. Auburn’s defense features stud defensive tackle Nick Fairley, a potential top 10 draft pick, and a bunch of guys you probably haven’t heard much about. The Auburn D has played well at times this year, most notably in the SEC Championship game, but make no mistake that it has been Cam Newton and the Tigers offense that has carried this team. The month off has given the Tigers time to prepare for Oregon’s spread attack but I doubt that they were able to simulate the speed, not only the pace at which they play but the speed of the playmakers, that Oregon operates with. Advantage: Ducks.
Auburn Offense vs. Oregon Defense: Cam Newton, Cam Newton, Cam Newton….is there really much else to say here? Newton has been unbelievable this year, rushing for over 1,400 yards and throwing for nearly 2,600 more. Newton has been fantastic in every phase of the game but the part that has gone somewhat unnoticed is how efficient he has been throwing the football. The Tigers lead the nation in both passing efficiency and yards per attempt, two statistics that truly show just how great Newton has been. The talent surrounding Newton is not equal to that of his counterpart in Thomas, but the Tigers have more than enough playmakers to support Newton and take advantage if the Ducks pay too much attention to Newton. Oregon’s defense has been great this year despite flying somewhat under the radar due to the team’s eye-popping offensive numbers. The Ducks are 25th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense despite the added number of possessions they see from the offense’s style of play. That being said, Oregon has not seen a player that will threaten them the way that Cam Newton will tonight. Look for Auburn to try and take advantage of Oregon’s undersized defense by pounding Newton and running back Michael Dyer up the gut. If Auburn can wear down the Ducks defense and keep their own defense fresh on the sidelines, it could go a long way towards how this one is decided. Advantage: Tigers.
Special Teams: This part of the game probably favors the Ducks who sport the nation’s #1 punt return unit and are 20th in the country in net punting. That point could become moot, however, if neither team has to punt the football. On kickoffs, which there could be a ton of tonight, both teams feature excellent coverage units and only Auburn has busted one for a TD this year. Neither team’s kicker has been tested much this year but both appear capable of getting the job done. I am sure both teams are hopeful that this one doesn’t come down to a last second kick, however. In a game that could easily swing one way or another on special teams play, I really don’t expect the game to come down to that. Advantage: Ducks, ever so slightly.
Prediction: Expect some fireworks tonight as both defenses get acclimated to the speed and scheme of the opposing offenses. I expect an absolute show from Cam Newton and from the Ducks high-octane offense but in the end I think it is the Oregon defense that is the difference. The SEC has never lost a BCS Title Game, and Cam Newton has never lost a collegiate start, but I think for the first time it will be the opposing team with the speed advantage on the defensive side of the ball. I have gone against Cam Newton numerous times this year only to regret it the next day but I like Chip Kelly’s team just a bit more tonight. Oregon wins 41-34.
Tonight’s game features Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who has had the best individual season I have witnessed in my lifetime, and the undefeated Auburn Tigers squaring off against LaMichael James, the 3rd place finisher in the Heisman voting, Darron Thomas and the high-powered, high-octane Oregon Ducks who just so happen to be undefeated as well. If it hadn’t been 37 days or whatever it has been since the last time these teams took the field, I might just have goosebumps in anticipation of watching this game. If you leave your seat to get a beer from the fridge, you might just miss a TD…and that is no knock on these defenses that have both been fantastic as well.
So who wins? Let’s break it down…
Oregon Offense vs. Auburn Defense: Even though Oregon plays on the West Coast, I am sure most people have seen the Ducks play at least a couple of times this year and are familiar with the pace that the Ducks like to run their offense. Coach Chip Kelly wants to have the next play snapped within 15 seconds of the previous play ending. This puts an enormous amount of pressure on the defense to get their call in, get lined up and to stop what is already an enormously talented offense. The Ducks have playmakers everywhere with James and Kenyon Barner in the backfield, Darron Thomas, the dual-threat QB, and a host of WRs that all seem faster than the next. Auburn’s defense features stud defensive tackle Nick Fairley, a potential top 10 draft pick, and a bunch of guys you probably haven’t heard much about. The Auburn D has played well at times this year, most notably in the SEC Championship game, but make no mistake that it has been Cam Newton and the Tigers offense that has carried this team. The month off has given the Tigers time to prepare for Oregon’s spread attack but I doubt that they were able to simulate the speed, not only the pace at which they play but the speed of the playmakers, that Oregon operates with. Advantage: Ducks.
Auburn Offense vs. Oregon Defense: Cam Newton, Cam Newton, Cam Newton….is there really much else to say here? Newton has been unbelievable this year, rushing for over 1,400 yards and throwing for nearly 2,600 more. Newton has been fantastic in every phase of the game but the part that has gone somewhat unnoticed is how efficient he has been throwing the football. The Tigers lead the nation in both passing efficiency and yards per attempt, two statistics that truly show just how great Newton has been. The talent surrounding Newton is not equal to that of his counterpart in Thomas, but the Tigers have more than enough playmakers to support Newton and take advantage if the Ducks pay too much attention to Newton. Oregon’s defense has been great this year despite flying somewhat under the radar due to the team’s eye-popping offensive numbers. The Ducks are 25th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense despite the added number of possessions they see from the offense’s style of play. That being said, Oregon has not seen a player that will threaten them the way that Cam Newton will tonight. Look for Auburn to try and take advantage of Oregon’s undersized defense by pounding Newton and running back Michael Dyer up the gut. If Auburn can wear down the Ducks defense and keep their own defense fresh on the sidelines, it could go a long way towards how this one is decided. Advantage: Tigers.
Special Teams: This part of the game probably favors the Ducks who sport the nation’s #1 punt return unit and are 20th in the country in net punting. That point could become moot, however, if neither team has to punt the football. On kickoffs, which there could be a ton of tonight, both teams feature excellent coverage units and only Auburn has busted one for a TD this year. Neither team’s kicker has been tested much this year but both appear capable of getting the job done. I am sure both teams are hopeful that this one doesn’t come down to a last second kick, however. In a game that could easily swing one way or another on special teams play, I really don’t expect the game to come down to that. Advantage: Ducks, ever so slightly.
Prediction: Expect some fireworks tonight as both defenses get acclimated to the speed and scheme of the opposing offenses. I expect an absolute show from Cam Newton and from the Ducks high-octane offense but in the end I think it is the Oregon defense that is the difference. The SEC has never lost a BCS Title Game, and Cam Newton has never lost a collegiate start, but I think for the first time it will be the opposing team with the speed advantage on the defensive side of the ball. I have gone against Cam Newton numerous times this year only to regret it the next day but I like Chip Kelly’s team just a bit more tonight. Oregon wins 41-34.
Friday, January 7, 2011
NFL Wild Card Weekend
During the Steelers first Super Bowl run of the 2000’s (following the 2005 NFL season), I went a perfect 11-0 against the spread in the NFL playoffs. I know that I will probably never do it again, but I have come to realize that magical month of picking NFL games is what makes me think that I can get every betting prediction that I make right. It hasn’t happened since and it probably won’t happen again, but here goes nothing…
New Orleans (-11) at Seattle
The Saints lost their top two running backs for the year when Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were put on injured reserve list this week. Those injuries will leave the running back duties to Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. Weather permitting, that may just benefit the Saints as Drew Brees and Sean Payton open up the playbook and attack the Seahawks’ 27th ranked passing defense vertically. The Seahawks, on the other hand, probably have the best home-field advantage in the NFL, a veteran presence at QB in Matt Hasselbeck and an improved running game with Marshawn Lynch that gives them three major pluses towards keeping this game close. In the end, however, the Saints passing attack will be too much and a couple of Seattle turnovers will leave the Seahawks with another double digit loss and the Saints moving on in attempt to defend their Super Bowl trophy. Picks: Saints (-11).
New York Jets at Indianapolis (-2.5)
There are really only two things that matter this time of year: (1) Quarterbacks; and (2) Matchups, in that order. That is what makes handicapping this game so difficult. I love how the Jets matchup against the injury depleted Colts. Last year the Colts gutted the Jets passing defense by using Austin Collie and Dallas Clark over the middle and Pierre Garcon on the outside while the Jets focused all of their attention on Reggie Wayne. This year, Collie and Clark are out and are being replaced by Jacob Tamme and Blair White, not exactly striking fear in the Jets meeting rooms. Plus, the addition of Antonio Cromartie opposite of Darrelle Revis should make Garcon have to work that much harder. Offensively, the Jets can still run the ball well enough to keep the Colts honest and the Jets playmaking WRs should be able to find some holes in what is not exactly a great Colts secondary. Back to that opening line, however, and the order in which I wrote it. The most important aspect this time of year is the quarterback and despite what my better judgment is telling me, there is no way I am going against Peyton Manning at home against Mark Sanchez. Besides, the four road teams can’t all win can they? Pick: Colts (-2.5).
Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City
Matchups and quarterback play, right? Well the matchups in this one are pretty even, and the Chiefs are 7-1 at home with their only home loss coming last week in what was essentially a meaningless game for the Chiefs, but I simply cannot take Matt Cassel in his first career playoff start over the Joe Flacco and the battle tested Ravens. I think this one is going to be closer than what many are expecting, but a late run by Ray Rice seals the deal for the Ravens who have become known for their road playoff prowess the past two years. Pick: Ravens (-3).
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-3)
Maybe you will get sick of hearing me say it by the end of the playoffs but once again match-ups and QB play will be the determining factor here. Green Bay, with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams covering the Eagles wideouts (and the occasional blitz by Woodson, seriously is there any corner better at blitzing) and the freak that is Clay Matthews chasing down Michael Vick, there is no defense better suited to stop this dynamic Philadelphia offense. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia’s banged up secondary has been taken advantage of numerous times this year and certainly will not have it easy trying to stop Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and the rest of the Packers passing weapons. Andy Reid’s undefeated record on wild card weekend combined with Mike McCarthy’s rear-end being kicked by Ken Whisenhunt in last year’s opening round (not to mention his suspect job this year) gives me pause, but in the end the Packers have the more complete team and the better quarterback. Pick: Packers (+3).
(Regular Season Record: 127-122-7)
New Orleans (-11) at Seattle
The Saints lost their top two running backs for the year when Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were put on injured reserve list this week. Those injuries will leave the running back duties to Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. Weather permitting, that may just benefit the Saints as Drew Brees and Sean Payton open up the playbook and attack the Seahawks’ 27th ranked passing defense vertically. The Seahawks, on the other hand, probably have the best home-field advantage in the NFL, a veteran presence at QB in Matt Hasselbeck and an improved running game with Marshawn Lynch that gives them three major pluses towards keeping this game close. In the end, however, the Saints passing attack will be too much and a couple of Seattle turnovers will leave the Seahawks with another double digit loss and the Saints moving on in attempt to defend their Super Bowl trophy. Picks: Saints (-11).
New York Jets at Indianapolis (-2.5)
There are really only two things that matter this time of year: (1) Quarterbacks; and (2) Matchups, in that order. That is what makes handicapping this game so difficult. I love how the Jets matchup against the injury depleted Colts. Last year the Colts gutted the Jets passing defense by using Austin Collie and Dallas Clark over the middle and Pierre Garcon on the outside while the Jets focused all of their attention on Reggie Wayne. This year, Collie and Clark are out and are being replaced by Jacob Tamme and Blair White, not exactly striking fear in the Jets meeting rooms. Plus, the addition of Antonio Cromartie opposite of Darrelle Revis should make Garcon have to work that much harder. Offensively, the Jets can still run the ball well enough to keep the Colts honest and the Jets playmaking WRs should be able to find some holes in what is not exactly a great Colts secondary. Back to that opening line, however, and the order in which I wrote it. The most important aspect this time of year is the quarterback and despite what my better judgment is telling me, there is no way I am going against Peyton Manning at home against Mark Sanchez. Besides, the four road teams can’t all win can they? Pick: Colts (-2.5).
Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City
Matchups and quarterback play, right? Well the matchups in this one are pretty even, and the Chiefs are 7-1 at home with their only home loss coming last week in what was essentially a meaningless game for the Chiefs, but I simply cannot take Matt Cassel in his first career playoff start over the Joe Flacco and the battle tested Ravens. I think this one is going to be closer than what many are expecting, but a late run by Ray Rice seals the deal for the Ravens who have become known for their road playoff prowess the past two years. Pick: Ravens (-3).
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-3)
Maybe you will get sick of hearing me say it by the end of the playoffs but once again match-ups and QB play will be the determining factor here. Green Bay, with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams covering the Eagles wideouts (and the occasional blitz by Woodson, seriously is there any corner better at blitzing) and the freak that is Clay Matthews chasing down Michael Vick, there is no defense better suited to stop this dynamic Philadelphia offense. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia’s banged up secondary has been taken advantage of numerous times this year and certainly will not have it easy trying to stop Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and the rest of the Packers passing weapons. Andy Reid’s undefeated record on wild card weekend combined with Mike McCarthy’s rear-end being kicked by Ken Whisenhunt in last year’s opening round (not to mention his suspect job this year) gives me pause, but in the end the Packers have the more complete team and the better quarterback. Pick: Packers (+3).
(Regular Season Record: 127-122-7)
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Pitt Can Salvage Current Embarrassment
By now, everyone knows the story of what has happened to the Pitt football program over the last few weeks. Pitt forced the resignation of Dave Wannstedt after the second most successful three-year stretch in school history, proceeded to allow Wannstedt the choice to coach in the bowl game, hired a new coach in Mike Haywood in what they made seem like a top secret search, this new coach had only been a head coach for two seasons at a MAC school where he had a losing record, the new coach then proceeded to get arrested on domestic abuse charges after both he and Athletic Director Steve Pederson spoke of character and discipline at Haywood’s introductory news conference, the new coach was subsequently fired and all-the-while the former coach had yet to make up his mind on coaching in Pitt’s bowl game. On top of all that, two assistant coaches, including the team’s offensive coordinator, left for new jobs at a conference rival in Rutgers and the once very promising recruiting class of 19 players has dwindled to 6 commitments, at best. Needless to say, there are a lot of red faces over in Oakland right now.
Despite the black eye that the Pitt administrators, namely Pederson and Chancellor Mark Nordenberg, have suffered, all is not completely lost by this bizarre and unfortunate sequence of events. Quite frankly, what has happened to Haywood could be the best thing that could have happened to the program. Haywood’s dismissal gives the administration the time and the reason to use every resource possible to conduct an exhaustive search for the next head football coach at the University of Pittsburgh, something that has become more and more evident did not occur in the hiring of Haywood.
Both the handling of Wannstedt’s departure and the hiring (and dismissal) of Mike Haywood will be forgotten if Pitt is able to hire the right coach this time around. Many probably remember the hiring and subsequent firing of George O’Leary at Notre Dame nearly ten years ago for lying on his resume. Many also probably remember how quickly the story was forgotten about when Ty Willingham came in and won his first eight games as coach of the Irish on his way to a ten win season and a Gator Bowl appearance. Sure, the Willingham era did not finish the way the Note Dame faithful had hoped but his hiring quickly put an end to the embarrassment the school suffered in the wake of the O’Leary fiasco.
Pitt is in a similar circumstance now where they can alleviate the embarrassment of these events by hiring the right coach for the job. I don’t pretend to know if that coach is Kevin Sumlin, Tommy Bradley, Mike Leach, or some other coach out there we have yet to hear about and really nobody can know without knowing the individuals themselves and going through the correct process. What I do know is that Pitt can salvage this terrible sequence of events by hiring the right man for the job. That pressure falls once again on Pederson and Nordenberg and here’s hoping that they get it right this time. After all, that’s the only thing that can make right of the current situation.
Despite the black eye that the Pitt administrators, namely Pederson and Chancellor Mark Nordenberg, have suffered, all is not completely lost by this bizarre and unfortunate sequence of events. Quite frankly, what has happened to Haywood could be the best thing that could have happened to the program. Haywood’s dismissal gives the administration the time and the reason to use every resource possible to conduct an exhaustive search for the next head football coach at the University of Pittsburgh, something that has become more and more evident did not occur in the hiring of Haywood.
Both the handling of Wannstedt’s departure and the hiring (and dismissal) of Mike Haywood will be forgotten if Pitt is able to hire the right coach this time around. Many probably remember the hiring and subsequent firing of George O’Leary at Notre Dame nearly ten years ago for lying on his resume. Many also probably remember how quickly the story was forgotten about when Ty Willingham came in and won his first eight games as coach of the Irish on his way to a ten win season and a Gator Bowl appearance. Sure, the Willingham era did not finish the way the Note Dame faithful had hoped but his hiring quickly put an end to the embarrassment the school suffered in the wake of the O’Leary fiasco.
Pitt is in a similar circumstance now where they can alleviate the embarrassment of these events by hiring the right coach for the job. I don’t pretend to know if that coach is Kevin Sumlin, Tommy Bradley, Mike Leach, or some other coach out there we have yet to hear about and really nobody can know without knowing the individuals themselves and going through the correct process. What I do know is that Pitt can salvage this terrible sequence of events by hiring the right man for the job. That pressure falls once again on Pederson and Nordenberg and here’s hoping that they get it right this time. After all, that’s the only thing that can make right of the current situation.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Orange Bowl Pick and More
Discover Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (+3.5) over Stanford
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ohio State (-3) over Arkansas
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Middle Tennessee State (-2) over Miami (Oh)
AT&T Cotton Bowl
LSU (-2.5) over Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Bowl
Pitt (-3.5) over Kentucky
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Boston College (+8) over Nevada
Virginia Tech (+3.5) over Stanford
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ohio State (-3) over Arkansas
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Middle Tennessee State (-2) over Miami (Oh)
AT&T Cotton Bowl
LSU (-2.5) over Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Bowl
Pitt (-3.5) over Kentucky
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Boston College (+8) over Nevada
Sunday, January 2, 2011
NFL Week 17 Picks
(Home Team in Caps)
Miami (+6) over NEW ENGLAND
BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
Buffalo (+1) over NEW YORK JETS
Tampa Bay (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA (-14.5) over Carolina
DETROIT (-3) over Minnesota
Oakland (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-10) over Chicago
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville
SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Arizona
San Diego (-3.5) over DENVER
New York Giants (-4) over WASHINGTON
Dallas (+6) over PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis (-3) over SEATTLE
(Last Week: 9-7; Overall: 118-115-7)
Miami (+6) over NEW ENGLAND
BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
Buffalo (+1) over NEW YORK JETS
Tampa Bay (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA (-14.5) over Carolina
DETROIT (-3) over Minnesota
Oakland (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-10) over Chicago
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville
SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Arizona
San Diego (-3.5) over DENVER
New York Giants (-4) over WASHINGTON
Dallas (+6) over PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis (-3) over SEATTLE
(Last Week: 9-7; Overall: 118-115-7)
Friday, December 31, 2010
Happy New Year's!
Well hopefully you stopped using my picks, maybe even started fading them as I have become the victim of some of the worst beats I can ever remember, but after a fantastic start I have dropped 11 of the last 13 against the spread. For the sake of having a record, and because I still feel like I have a strong run coming, here are the New Year's Eve and New Year's Day picks:
Friday, December 31st
South Florida (+6) over Clemson
Notre Dame (+3) over Miami
Georgia (-6.5) over Central Florida
South Carolina (-3) over Florida State
Saturday, January 1st
Texas Tech (-9.5) over Northwestern
Florida (-7) over Penn State
Alabama (-10) over Michigan State
Mississippi State (-4.5) over Michigan
Wisconsin (+3) over TCU
Oklahoma (-15) over Connecticut
Friday, December 31st
South Florida (+6) over Clemson
Notre Dame (+3) over Miami
Georgia (-6.5) over Central Florida
South Carolina (-3) over Florida State
Saturday, January 1st
Texas Tech (-9.5) over Northwestern
Florida (-7) over Penn State
Alabama (-10) over Michigan State
Mississippi State (-4.5) over Michigan
Wisconsin (+3) over TCU
Oklahoma (-15) over Connecticut
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