Picks, Picks and More Picks

I said that last week’s results would be the determining factor on how I would finish out the season handicapping games. I thought another good week would show that I have finally figured things out and would continue on strong for the rest of the year or that it would prove I just hit a bit of a lucky streak and the NFL was just as wacky as it was earlier in the season. Well I went 9-7…while good, that doesn’t provide definitive proof so we will have to carry over that hypothesis one more week. I started off again on the right foot with Philadelphia covering on Thursday night. Let’s see if we can carry over that momentum to Sunday this week. I had so much fun writing up the NFL games this week I decided to break down some of the college championship and big games from this weekend as well. Enjoy…

(Home Team in Caps)

PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Houston – Michael Vick will throw for another 300 yards against Houston’s terrible pass defense and will probably run for another score as well. The Eagles score a late TD to cover after Andy Reid successfully challenges a call for the first time since the NFL implemented coaches’ challenges. Just call me Nostradamus!

Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS – Washington lost last week at home to the struggling Vikings. According to their Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde season, that means they will come out with a strong performance this week against the banged-up Giants. New York probably comes out of this game with a win, but it should be a close one throughout.

Denver (+9) over KANSAS CITY – Denver is in danger of quitting on their season but this is still too many points for a young Chiefs team that is still learning how to win and deal with success. I expect the Chiefs to extract revenge for their embarrassing showing three weeks ago in Denver and get the win, but both teams should be ready for this intense rivalry game and Kyle Orton and the Broncos’ passing game should be enough to at least keep this one close

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over San Francisco – Despite the loss last week I think this Green Bay team is finally figuring things out. The Packers have abandoned their horrific run game and have put the ball in the hands of their best player Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has delivered with back-to-back 300 yard performances and now goes up against the 49ers’ 15th ranked pass defense.

Chicago (-5) over DETROIT – Detroit is expected to start third stringer Drew Stanton at quarterback this week and that is not good news against this stingy Chicago defense. If Cutler can avoid one of his three or four turnover days, the Bears should win this one comfortably.

Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI – Last week I told you that Miami was 4-1 on the road both straight up and against the spread. That record is now 5-1. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS at home. Those wacky trends continue this week as the Brownies come to town and make this a battle to the end.

New Orleans (-7) over CINCINNATI – These are two teams going in completely opposite directions. The Saints have won four straight and are beginning to look like the team that won the Super Bowl last year. The Bungals have lost eight straight and for all intent and purposes have quit on their coach. In the goofy NFL that means the Bengals will probably win this game somehow but I don’t see Drew Brees and Sean Payton falling into that trap. The Saints are playing too well right now and are fighting for their playoff lives.

Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE – These are two more teams heading in opposite directions as we head down the stretch. Just a month ago the Jags were 3-4 and headed toward a top 10 pick in the draft while the Titans were sitting 5-2 and expected to be the team to challenge the Colts for the division. Now the Jaguars are 6-5 and tied atop the South with Indianapolis while Tennessee has lost Vince Young for the year and have their fans questioning whether they will win another game this season. Kerry Collins is expected to start for the Titans this week which gives me some hesitation but I still like the Jaguars to carry over their recent strong play and pull the upset on the road.

Buffalo (+5.5) over MINNESOTA – Now that the good feelings and excitement of Leslie Frazier taking over as coach have worn off the Vikings are going to once again realize that they are 4-7 and headed nowhere in a season that they were expecting so much. I am guessing they still find a way to win this game at home, especially if Adrian Peterson is able to play with his sprained ankle, but I do expect the Bills to continue to be competitive until the end. In the Bills last six games they have won two and lost the other four games all by a field goal, going 5-0-1 against the spread. That trend continues and the Vikes kick a field goal as time expires.

SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland – As I mentioned yesterday, San Diego is going on their annual late season tear through the league while Oakland has looked awful in its last two games. San Diego is 4-1 at home and still possesses the league’s number one ranked offense and defense. I expect the Chargers to win this one comfortably and Rivers to continue on his MVP-type season.

St. Louis (-3.5) over ARIZONA – One team that I don’t think has quit on their season is the Arizona Cardinals but their quarterback play has been just that bad. I wrote how high I am on Rams’ rookie QB Sam Bradford in the comments section of yesterday’s post and I expect the rook to continue to impress for the rest of the season and the Rams to come out on top of the woeful NFC West. On a fantasy note, I own both the Rams Defense and Bears Defense on one of my teams and both have dream match-ups this week (the league requires every team to carry two defenses). Why does this always seem to happen? Next week one will be playing the Chargers and the other New England or something. (I wrote that sentence before checking their schedules…Chicago plays New England next week and St. Louis plays New Orleans, go figure!)

Dallas (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS – Dallas is 3-0 against the spread and 2-1 straight up under interim coach Jason Garrett and have been playing the kind of football I expected them to play all season long despite playing with back-up quarterback Jon Kitna. Indianapolis is too banged up in too many positions to be giving anybody more than a field goal at this point. Peyton probably finds a way to put the team on his back this week and get a win, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this one is tight. Besides, does any team possess better weapons and a gun-slinging QB like the Cowboys have for a backdoor cover if needed?

SEATTLE (-6) over Carolina – Seattle has lost three of four including two at home and has seemingly lost all of the momentum they gathered from a strong start. Carolina has never had any momentum this year. Advantage: Seattle.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Atlanta – Let me get this straight; The team that was leading in the fourth quarter on the road and gave the league’s best home team everything it could handle just a few weeks ago AND has covered in five straight games is getting a field goal at home. Sure, I think Atlanta is the better team and probably the class of the NFC right now, but the value in this line goes on the Bucs. Josh Freeman is developing into an upper-echelon quarterback in this league and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the Bucs pulled the upset this Sunday. Besides, everytime we think we have the top of the NFC figured out the team finds a way to lose one.

Pittsburgh (+3) over BALTIMORE – Two fun facts for you: Ben Roethlisberger is 7-2 against the Ravens over his career. Joe Flacco has never beat Roethlisberger. Add those up and you get a Steelers win. Plus, these teams are extremely evenly matched. The winner of this game is probably a coin-flip but you can take three points with the Steelers. When in doubt, take the points.

New York Jets (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND – You may have noticed a growing trend over the past two weeks with the number of away teams I have been backing. Between the new billion dollar stadiums being more eye-pleasing and comfortable and thus less noisy, ticket prices forcing many of the real fans to watch at home, and the amount of time and preparation put into games these days by players and coaches, home field advantage has gone the way of the fullback in the NFL. That is few and far between around the league. Besides, Rex Ryan says his team is built to beat the Patriots. I don’t need Sexy Rexy to win, just lose by a field goal or less.

(Last Week: 9-7; Thursday: 1-0; Overall: 85-86-6)

Bonus College Picks

Oregon (-16.5) over OREGON STATE – Oregon is simply too explosive this year for the Beavers to keep up with. Sure, the “Civil War” is unbelievably intense and usually comes down to the wire and Oregon State has proven in the past that it can pull a major upset over its rival, but without James Rodgers and the ability of Oregon’s offense to put up points in a hurry I think this game resembles the one from two years ago when the Ducks pounded Oregon State on their home turf.

South Carolina (+5.5) over Auburn – Despite having a terrific year against the spread in college, I might not be the best source for this game as I have gone against the Tigers in their last five SEC games (all of which I lost) but I am still not convinced that they are a great team. There is no doubt Cam Newton is the best player in the country and he continues to deliver for his team, especially in the fourth quarter, but I expect a close game down to the wire. This time I think the Gamecocks cover the spread but ultimately fall to the Tigers.

WEST VIRGINIA (-20) over Rutgers – West Virginia’s defense is fantastic. Rutgers defense is not so fantastic, giving up 109 points in the last two games. Combine those two and this game could get ugly, real ugly.

SOUTH FLORIDA (-2) over Connecticut – You can call this terrible reasoning but I just cannot see UConn in a BCS Bowl game. Better reasoning is that the Huskies are 1-4 on the road this year and rely on a run game that faces the Bulls’s run defense who has surrendered only 133 yards per game this year on the ground.

Virginia Tech (-3.5) over Florida State – Tyrod Taylor has been the ACC’s best player all season long and it is not time to go against him in the league’s championship game. This one should be close, but I like the Hokies to escape by more than a field goal. It helps to know that V-Tech is 9-1 against the spread since their opening two losses against Boise State and James Madison.

Oklahoma (-4) over Nebraska – Nebraska’s top two offensive weapons, freshman quarterback Taylor Martinez and running back Roy Helu Jr., are both banged up. Both are expected to play but Martinez is not expected to start and his effectiveness is in question. Oklahoma is too explosive and has too many weapons on offense to come into this game undermanned.