Week 12 NFL Picks

You may have noticed the little 20-10 run I have gone on over the past two weeks. I kept the momentum going by winning two out of three on Thanksgiving. You may have also noticed that I am still just a notch below .500 on the season so you are probably thinking one of two things: 1.) He has finally figured things out and should continue going strong for the rest of the season or; 2.) He has gone on a little lucky streak the past two weeks and will get back to losing here soon. I’d like to think it is number one, but to be fair we will call this week the tiebreaker. If I have another strong week it will be time to jump back on the bandwagon. It is still the holiday weekend so we will keep the write-ups short but we’ll find one good reason and one not so good reason for each pick this week. Let’s go…

(Home Team in Caps)

Green Bay (+2) over ATLANTA – One good reason: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense finally seems to be clicking. One not so good reason: I am playing against Matt Ryan and Roddy White in a must-win fantasy game this week.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Jacksonville - One good reason: Jacksonville is not the same team on the road where they are 2-2 with their two losses by an average of 23.5 points. One not so good reason: The Giants are too good to lose three in a row despite their injuries.

CLEVELAND (-10) over Carolina – One good reason: Rookie Jimmy Clausen and his is 53.8 passer rating will be starting for Carolina and its league worst offense (by over 40 points!). One not so good reason: Jake Delhomme is back starting for the Browns.

Minnesota (+1) over WASHINGTON - One good reason: Washington has been the most inconsistent football team in the NFL, they cannot be trusted to have two good games in a row. One not so good reason: The Cowboys showed us two weeks ago how a team responds to their coach being fired when they manhandled the red-hot Giants.

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over BUFFALO - One good reason: The Steelers are the most complete team in the NFL. One not so good reason: Pittsburgh seemed to regain their mojo on the defensive side of the ball last week against the Raiders.

Tennessee (+6.5) over HOUSTON - One good reason: Houston has the NFL’s worst pass defense giving up over 300 yards per game. One not so good reason: Rusty Smith will be the guy trying to take advantage of that pass defense.

Kansas City (-1.5) over SEATTLE - One good reason: Kansas City is the league’s number one rushing unit while the Seahawks are just mediocre at stopping the run. One not so good reason: The Seahawks are certainly a much better team at home but the Giants showed they are not invincible there.

Miami (+3) over OAKLAND - One good reason: Miami has been an excellent road team this year where they are 4-1 straight up and against the spread. One not so good reason: Miami has struggled to get its running game going this year but Oakland is just 25th against the rush.

Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO - One good reason: No team in the NFC is playing better than Michael Vick and the Eagles are right now. One not so good reason: The Bears are happy to be 7-3, the Eagles are expecting a lot more than that.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) over BALTIMORE - One good reason: Quarterback Josh Freeman is playing too well to be getting more than a touchdown at this point. One not so good reason: Tampa Bay was blown out by the Steelers and Saints but was able to hang tough in their other loss at Atlanta, the league’s best home team right now.

St. Louis (+4) over DENVER - One good reason: The Rams are tied for sixth in the NFL in sacks averaging nearly three per game while Denver is 7th in giving up sacks with 2.6 per game allowed. One not so good reason: Denver should not be giving anyone four points at this time.

San Diego (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS - One good reason: Philip Rivers is good. One not so good reason: So is Peyton Manning.

San Francisco (-1) over ARIZONA - One good reason: The Cards have lost five straight and are in danger of giving up on the season. One not so good reason: Wonder if ESPN would like to give this game back? Who knows what is going to happen in the pathetic NFC West.

(Last Week: 12-4; Thursday: 2-1; Overall: 77-80-6)