Trading Season Has Begun; Good Day for Buccos Despite Inactivity

The baseball trading has begun and if you are a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, today was a good day. Carlos Beltran was traded to the San Francisco Giants despite being linked with the Milwaukee Brewers, among other teams, and the Cardinals made the first ever “go for it” trade that made their team worse now, and in the future.

The first trade of the day was a three-teamer between the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. Let’s just say the American League teams did fine in this one. Toronto received Colby Rasmus, the 24-year-old outfielder that is easily the best asset in the deal, from the Cards and utility man Mark Teahen from the White Sox as well as three no-name pitchers. For Rasmus, the Cardinals received right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and outfielder Corey Patterson as well as two relievers and some other considerations such as cash and three players to be named later. The White Sox ended up with reliever Jason Frasor and pitching prospect Zach Stewart.

Rasmus was clearly the best player in this trade but for whatever reason was unable to get along with Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa and his coaching staff and they felt the need to move him. Not only is Rasmus a pretty decent player already, his skills and young age have had scouts and baseball insiders drooling over him for years. Fans of other National League Central teams have to be extremely happy about his departure, and the fact that he could be replaced with Corey Patterson! Edwin Jackson is a hard-throwing righty with a no-hitter during his time with the Diamondbacks but his career ERA of 4.53 and extremely high walk rate aren’t sending fear through the NL Central.

Toronto’s incentive in the trade was clearly acquiring the young Rasmus and the potential he possesses. The Blue Jays have done a tremendous job acquiring assets in recent years - it’s just a shame they have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox, meanwhile, pick up a good bullpen arm and a pretty good pitching prospect in Stewart while saving some money in the meantime.

The other trade that has either gone down or soon will go down is Carlos Beltran heading west to the San Francisco Giants for some kind of package that includes pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. As part of the trade the Mets are reported to be picking up $4 million of the remaining $6.5 million owed to Beltran, with this being the final year of his contract. Beltran is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Giants who have been desperate for a middle of the order bat since Buster Posey’s injury. The Giants have plenty of pitching and giving up a prospect, grant it a darn-good one, is well worth the gamble for a team trying to win back-to-back World Series titles. The Mets were willing to eat much of the money owed to Beltran in order to pick up a premium prospect in a trade and they couldn’t have done much better than Wheeler who is ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball according to Keith Law’s latest rankings. The trade is a win for both teams as the Giants add a big piece to their title defense while the Mets pick up a legitimate starting pitching prospect for the future for a player they were likely to lose at the end of the season.

QB Dominoes Starting to Fall in the NFL

The QB dominoes are starting to fall in the NFL:

It looks as though the Minnesota Vikings are going to land QB Donovan McNabb. Those that are long-time readers of the blog know my respect and appreciation for McNabb but he certainly seemed to have lost something last year in Washington. Can a move to the Twin Cities revitalize his career? It looks like we are about to find out. I like the move on the Vikings behalf as they have enough talent and a veteran laden roster to make another run at the Super Bowl. Intrusting the starting role to a rookie would not have worked, nor gone over well with the veteran roster. If McNabb can be even close to the player he was in Philadelphia, Minnesota will be a tough out in the NFC. I do think the Vikings need to supplement this move by resigning WR Sidney Rice. An offense with Rice, Harvin, Peterson and Shiancoe surrounding McNabb sounds awfully imposing on defenses.

Similar to Minnesota, the Tennessee Titans were looking for a veteran quarterback to lead their offense while their first round draft choice learns from the sidelines. They, too, look like they have found their man in Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is 36-years-old and it looked like he lost some zip on his ball last year in Seattle but he is still a smart quarterback and a good team leader that should help Jake Locker learn and grow for a year. Overall, I’m not a big fan of this signing but it accomplishes the objective for the Titans who are probably on the outside looking in of the loaded AFC playoff bubble anyhow.

Crazy Week in Sports; Steelers Sign Ike

This marks a crazy week in sports as we try to track the rumors and realities of the Major League Baseball trade deadline as well as the free agent frenzy taking place in the NFL. We would need to take a vacation to track all of the wheeling and dealings going on in both leagues right now. With that in mind, instead of writing a long article on what may or may not happen this week around the leagues, I will post short updates and comments as major trades go down in baseball and major signings and/or trades happen in the NFL.

The biggest news to occur so far in Pittsburgh is the Steelers resigning (or more appropriately reaching an agreement) with cornerback Ike Taylor. Taylor is instrumental to the Steelers defense as their top cover corner and was unanimously considered the Steelers top free agent priority. The Steelers are also a perfect fit for Taylor’s physical style and the two sides were both better off being able to work out a deal. With Taylor’s signing in place, the Steelers are poised to have one of, if not the best defense in the NFL once again. The lockout and lack of preparation time should also be an advantage to the Steelers veteran defense who were probably better served by the time off than the lack of minicamps and meetings.

Excitement Real but Pirates Need Alvarez

I was on vacation last week in Myrtle Beach, SC, a popular relaxation destination for many Pittsburghers, where the excitement over the Buccos was everywhere. There are many years when my family takes the voyage down to Myrtle Beach only it usually falls in early June where by then the Pirates have normally been eliminated from contention already. Being there in July, with the Pirates claiming a share of first place, only made it sweeter to see the excitement and hope for Pittsburgh Pirates fans for the first time in what seems like eternity.

With this excitement both in Pittsburgh and from Pirates fans around the country in mind, I decided to take an extended lunch yesterday to check out your first place Buccos in action against the Cincinnati Reds. Besides the general importance of the game and the Pirates looking to complete a sweep, it was an opportunity to see a great pitching match-up in Jeff Karstens, with his 2nd best NL ERA, going up against Johnny Cueto and his would be NL best ERA had he pitched enough innings.

I came away from the game with two thoughts, both already somewhat swirling around in my head but only confirmed further by being in attendance. First, the excitement and enthusiasm for these Buccos is real and hardcore. You got the sense of this from watching on TV during the Boston and Philadelphia series, and even the Cubs and Astros series before the break, but to see a crowd of 25,000+ on a weekday afternoon in full support of these Buccos was fantastic. I have been to many of these early afternoon games in the past when you could count the number of fans in the lower levels of the stadium.

Secondly, the Pirates desperately need Pedro Alvarez back in the line-up. I have no idea why he is still in AAA, we know that the guy can hit minor league pitching, it’s time to bring him back up to the majors, plug him in at third base and in the clean-up spot and see what he can do. No offense to Chase D’Arnaud, he’s young and needs more time to develop, but he has been awful during his time in Pittsburgh. I cannot even fathom why Clint Hurdle continues to bat him in the #2 spot in the order. Hurdle is giving away valuable and critical at-bats in the middle of a pennant race. D’Arnaud single-handedly cost the Buccos the game yesterday with two atrocious errors. He also came to bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and hit a weak fly ball to right on the first pitch in the third and then later flew out to left with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in the seventh inning (this after a failed bunt attempt by Alex Presley, a horrible bunt but an even worse decision to have him bunting there). One game is one game, but D’Arnaud has been terrible his entire time in the big leagues with the exception of a fine defensive play here or there. The 24-year-old shortstop prospect is batting .225 with an OPS of .542. He has 5 extra base hits in 89 at-bats and zero home runs. He also has 7 errors in 21 games played. For the love of Pirates fans, please send this kid back to AAA.

Meanwhile, despite the terrible start Pedro Alvarez got off to this season, he still seems like Babe Ruth compared to the punch and judy hitters the Pirates have been running out there at third base in his absence. Between D’Arnaud mentioned above, Josh Harrison (.576 OPS) and Brandon Wood (.642 OPS) the Pirates third basemen have been another empty spot in a line-up that already has too many deficiencies. Alvarez hit 16 HRs last year in 347 Abs, a pace that would put him in line to be a 30 HR guy despite a tough transition period to the Major Leagues. It is time the Pirates put their faith back in the top prospect they have had since Chad Hermansen and see what the kid can do. We know he can hit AAA pitching where he is hitting .340 with an OPS over .900 in 14 games during his rehab assignment. It is time the Pirates plug him into the #4 spot in a line-up that is dying for an influx of power. Putting Pedro #4 would allow Walker and McCutchen to move up a spot in the order, where they should be anyhow, and give the Pirates a line-up that at least resembles what a Major League line-up should look like.

I am not sure how Alvarez will respond to a recall to the Pirates. His track record tells us that he is a slow-starter which gives me great reason for optimism and I saw enough of the young third-baseman last year to know that at a minimum he is going to hit some home-runs. Whether he develops into a great player will probably depend on his ability to put the ball in play but again, I think we are talking about a guy who is going to hit 30 home runs per season and possibly more. Whether that comes with a .230 batting average or a .270 average will ultimately determine how good of a player he is, but even the poor end of Alvarez’ projected production would be a major upgrade to this Pittsburgh Pirates line-up. It is time the Pirates recall Alvarez and plug him into his normal spot at third. Any hope at a continued run at the division is dependent on it.

Andrew McCutchen, the All-Star

Andrew McCutchen, much like many of the Pirates’ opponents who have hit one in the gap this year, was robbed of his first All-Star appearance. I am not the first to write this and I won’t be the last but I had to comment on the fact that I find it absolutely ridiculous that “Cutch” is not on the NL All-Star roster.

Personally, I think the Pirates center fielder should be starting the game but I was OK with the fact that Matt Kemp, Lance Berkman and Ryan Braun were voted starters. All are having fantastic years and much of the fan voting was done before McCutchen’s recent tear. That being said, McCutchen has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement player) in the National League, trailing only Kemp in that metric. Braun is third, Berkman is tenth…again I think McCutchen should be starting, but the fact that he is not even on the team is beyond comprehension. As Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle said, and I am paraphrasing, “the players screwed up, NL Manager Bruce Bochy screwed up and MLB screwed up”.

The fact that McCutchen is not even on the “final five” list to be voted into the game by the fans is enough to justify firing whoever puts that list together. How is the second best player in the National League not even included on a list of players that includes Ian Kennedy and Michael Morse? Most casual fans don’t even know who those guys play for. (Kennedy is a pitcher for the Diamondbacks and Morse is an outfielder for the Nationals for those that didn’t know.) McCutchen is being talked about nationally as a young, exciting and fantastic player that will soon be mentioned among the top players in baseball for years to come. For MLB to leave him out of this year’s contest does a disservice for baseball fans around the country.

McCutchen’s absence once again merits a closer look at how these teams are constructed. To be honest, the fans actually do the best job. Sure, too many Yankees and Red Sox dominate the voting but for the most part those guys deserve it and the fans get it right. With the exception of Derek Jeter, who is in for the lifetime achievement award, it is hard to find fault with any of the starters for this year’s contest. The players and the respective teams’ managers choose the rest of the rosters and once again there is plenty of room for disagreement. The players have loyalties and frankly don’t care all that much about how other players are performing. Managers have loyalties to their own players, former players and other managers around the league and are often partial to those loyalties. In the end, it is the fans who get cheated by not getting the opportunity to see the best players in the game on the field.

The good news is that ultimately All-Star games and All-Star appearances don’t really matter. Andrew McCutchen is going to make plenty of All-Star appearances in his career beginning next season in all likelihood. If anything, McCutchen’s snub this year may have garnered him more attention nationally than if he were to be on the team, especially if he had been the Pirates’ lone participant. (This is no slight at Joel Hanrahan who absolutely should be on the team as well.) McCutchen is quickly becoming one of the league’s best players and will soon be recognized for it. Who knows, if the Pirates keep playing this well McCutchen could end up on the short list of MVP candidates by season’s end. That would sure make the All-Star game voters feel stupid because Andrew McCutchen is obviously an All-Star.

Huntington Faces Tough Decisions

As we approach the midpoint of the baseball season and with the trade deadline less than a month away, Pirates management and General Manager Neal Huntington have a very interesting decision on their hands. The Pirates sit at 41-39, only 2 games out of first place in the NL Central and only one game back in the loss column. This is the Pirates best record through 80 games since the 18 year losing streak began and fans are excited. No doubt that the temptation is there for Huntington to make a trade to improve this ballclub and make a run at their first winning season and maybe even an outside shot at contention in nearly two decades.

Under normal circumstances, aka one where the team has not had 18 consecutive losing seasons, I would say hold it right there. This team has obvious deficiencies, is pitching a bit over its head and is still another year or two away from truly contending. The advice would be to move parts, such as Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia and/or whoever else may not be part of the team in the future, to continue building for success over the next few years. The Pirates have the core parts of their team going forward in place – Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan – but there are still plenty of holes to fill for this team to contend with the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers over the next 2-3 years. Trading Maholm, Correia, Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and/or all of the above could fill a couple of those holes moving forward.

It would also almost guarantee another losing season in 2011 and upset a fan base dying to get behind this team. That is where this decision gets interesting. If the Pirates are able to continue winning or at least stay near the .500 mark into August and September, it could give the Pirates a significant financial windfall. Can you imagine PNC Park in August or September if the Pirates are even near the playoff race? Just the chance at breaking the losing streak would have the stadium filled every night and what if there is no NFL season? This “success” could be worth millions, and maybe tens of millions, to the ballclub over the next couple of months if they continue to overachieve. Huntington could aid this effort with a shrewd acquisition or two coupled with the healthy returns of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Ryan Doumit. So Mr. Huntington, what’s it going to be? Continue with your plan of building a strong nucleus around McCutchen, Alvarez and others with the chance to contend over the next five years or go for the short term bliss and financial gain that would accompany it by holding onto valuable trading chips and even trading away a prospect or two to boost your chances.

While the situation may not be ideal, it is still the best possible scenario Huntington and his staff could have hoped for entering the 2011 season. To make matters a little easier, Huntington can even play a little on both sides of the fence and see what’s out there. To me, this is the path he should go down. Huntington should explore trade scenarios for Maholm, Correia, Doumit and anyone that may not be here over the next couple of years. If you find a piece in return that could substantially improve the ballclub over the next few years, you make the trade and deal with the repercussions from the fans later. If you don’t find an offer that you really like, you hold on to those guys, think about picking up their option years where available, and you hope for the best the rest of the season.

At the same time Huntington is shopping his own players for pieces towards the future, he should be on the hunt for position players that could help the Pirates dreadful offense in the near term. The players Huntington should be targeting are guys who will be salary dumps by their current teams and require no substantial prospects to be dealt in return. One problem here is that only a few teams are out of contention at this point and it may become more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s. Perusing the standings, the only players that immediately come to mind are Carlos Pena of the Cubs and Gaby Sanchez (arbitration eligible after this year) of the Marlins. Both teams would be happy to dump these players’ salaries but both would probably want something in return, especially the Marlins who still control Sanchez’ rights. So while the thought of acquiring immediate help is nice, and the Pirates should certainly have some money to play with, the actual cost of getting something done in terms of what you have to give up could be a problem.

As the Pirates fans get more and more excited about their current ballclub and rightfully so, it is going to be a long, hard month for Neil Huntington as he tries to figure out what to do for this organization that best fits their long term plan while not disrupting the current team’s success. I think the best case scenario for the Buccos would be acquiring another bat at nothing more than the cost of his salary for the rest of the year (think Carlos Pena), a healthy Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata return, provide more offense and look like the building blocks the Pirates hope they are, and a trade of Paul Maholm that nets the ballclub another piece or two that could help the team contend over the next 2-3 years. A healthy and productive return of Ross Ohlendorf, the development of Alex Presley as an outfielder, or anything else that could potentially help this year’s team would be gravy on top.

I do have another proposal for Pirates fans. Let’s just enjoy the ride that the ballclub is on. It is fun to debate what the team should and shouldn’t do before the trade deadline but it has been so long since we have seen a team play good baseball, let’s just enjoy this relative success and see what happens as the season progresses.

NBA Draft Preview Links

Because we are a little light this week on material and because the NBA Draft is tonight and I would rather not write about such a weak draft class, I leave you with a link to Grantland.com’s (Bill Simmons’ new website) NBA Draft Preview. The contributors did a great job of being both insightful and entertaining regarding tonight’s draft (Warning: It’s long!). For a bonus, I also link to Simmon’s own trade article which I found pretty entertaining as well.

Grantland's NBA Draft Preview

Bill Simmon's Trade Machine Column

Terrelle Pryor: Greatest Career that is Considered a Disappointment of All-Time?

On October 25th, 2008 Terrelle Pryor was starting his first marquee college football game for Ohio State at home against undefeated and #3 ranked Penn State. Pryor had played some snaps, and played pretty well actually, in Ohio State’s loss the third game of the season at USC but he was not the starting quarterback for that game. He was inserted as the starting QB the following game and led Ohio State to five straight wins and back up to #10 in the rankings. Despite starting the previous five games, however, this game was the real beginning of what was to be one of the most anticipated and scrutinized careers in college football history and especially in Western Pennsylvania and Ohio.

I remember the date off the top of my head because it was the day of my wedding. A good buddy of mine, who was a groomsman and obviously a Penn State alumnus, wore his Nittany Lions socks under his tuxedo. My father-in-law wore a Penn State jersey under his tux and when it was time for some kind of picture during the reception we couldn’t find him because he was at the hotel bar watching the game. Needless to say, the game was an event. It was Pryor, the local kid, and his 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes taking on the undefeated Lions and Joe Paterno, the school and coach he turned down to join the now infamous Jim Tressel in Columbus.

I had seen enough of Pryor in high school and in the games leading up to the Penn State game to know that he was not only the real deal but that he was one of the greatest athletes I had witnessed in my lifetime. Every time he stepped on a sporting field, whether it was basketball or football, nobody had the physical skills that he possessed. He also, and this is totally subjective and from third person accounts, seemed like a reasonably intelligent kid who had at least a decent enough head on his shoulders to take advantage of his tremendous physical skills. I had seen and heard enough about him to fully be on the Terrelle Pryor bandwagon. I told another friend leading up to that Penn State game, an avid Ohio State fan, that I thought the Buckeyes were going to lose and that Pryor may struggle a bit in his first game under that kind of spotlight. I followed up that statement with the prediction that the Buckeyes would not lose another game as long as Pryor was their starting quarterback; I felt he was that darn good. Half of that prediction came true as Pryor and the Buckeyes lost that night 13-6 to Penn State in large part due to two Pryor turnovers in the fourth quarter.

Today, amid the scandals, Jim Tressel’s resignation and Pryor’s subsequent departure from Ohio State and entrance into the NFL supplement draft, the second half of that prediction seems a bit crazy in hindsight. When you really think about it, however, was I really that far off? Pryor went 25-3 over the remainder of his college career (really he was 25-4 as the Buckeyes lost the 2008 Fiesta Bowl with Pryor coming off the bench) with his 4 losses coming by a combined 27 points. Pryor won two BCS Bowl games as a starter, was named the MVP of the 2010 Rose Bowl when it looked like he was becoming the quarterback everyone thought he would be, and finished high atop the Ohio State record books in many passing and rushing categories despite being there only three years.

I will save you the time of reading through the stats of all the great college quarterbacks but believe me when I tell you that both Pryor’s statistics and his win-loss record stand right in line and even surpass many of the all-time greats including Dan Marino and Joe Montana, among others. Every time I watched Pryor play I felt that there was no question who was the best player on the field at all times. It actually left you wanting more from him, and that is probably part of the legacy he is leaving Ohio State with. Despite the great achievements he accomplished, it always felt like he could do more. Maybe that is more a reflection of how we think as fans than it is on Pryor as a player but it is still the case none-the- less. Instead of remembering a fantastic college quarterback and possibly the greatest Western PA athlete of all time for what he did accomplish, we remember him for what he failed to accomplish. There was no Heisman Trophy, no National Championship, and no career that resulted in being a first round NFL Draft pick.

Time will tell how Terrelle Pryor is ultimately remembered. I would guess that much of that memory will be based on how his pro career turns out and I, for one, will be rooting for him. The odds are against him this time, with his back against the wall from the scandal at Ohio State and coming out as a likely 4th or 5th round selection in the supplemental draft. Maybe everything that has happened will be a wake-up call for the young man. Maybe he will fully realize his tremendous physical potential at the pro level. Either way, I will be rooting for him because I hate to see that kind of talent wasted and I would hate to see Pryor remembered for what he was not able to accomplish instead of what he was. It is funny that even as I write this post trying to highlight the positive accomplishments that Pryor had, I find myself being more negative and critical of him than is my intention.

Today, the general thought around the country is that Pryor’s career at Ohio State was a failure. Maybe 50 years from now when the scandals, the sense of entitlement and the hype that came with Pryor is no longer talked about his career will be looked back upon a bit more favorably. For now, however, Pryor will go down as a disappointment in the minds of those who expected so much when he walked on the Ohio State campus back in 2008. For me, I will remember him for having the greatest collegiate career that everyone else believed was a total disappointment. I guess it goes with the territory.

Welcome Back Smorgasbord - King James, Terrelle Pryor and More!

The blog, much like LeBron James during the fourth quarters of the NBA Finals, has been on hiatus for a few weeks but we are back now to our regularly scheduled program. I will be back with columns every Wednesday and Friday with shorter posts sprinkled in here and there when thoughts and/or events come up. Since I have not commented on anything in a couple weeks here, what better way to jump back in than with an extended smorgasbord! Here we go…

- Where else can we start other than King James? Just when we thought he had fully arrived after the Boston and Chicago series he follows it up with a complete mental breakdown on the biggest stage of his career. (I must say that I had originally planned to do a column after the Chicago series saying how LeBron had finally arrived and was playing the way we all had envisioned him playing for so long…I’m glad that I didn’t have the time to write that post with how silly it would look just two weeks later!) Make no mistake - that was no choke job by LeBron. He wasn’t bricking foul shots or missing layups. He wasn’t throwing terrible passes or missing rebounds. He simply did not show up mentally following the game two loss for reasons that none of us can understand. Why did he stop attacking the basket? Why did his suffocating defense disappear? What in the world was going through his mind? Whatever it was, it was probably the same “thing” that pushed James into teaming up with Dwayne Wade in Miami in the first place. Whether it is a lack of a killer instinct, an unusual level of self-doubt that we typically do not see with players of his magnitude, or something else that none of us can put our fingers on, it is obvious that eight years into the NBA LeBron still does not have that “it” factor. Will he get there? I don’t know. My guess is that his talent alone will lead him to at least 2 or 3 championships and we will forget about many of these indiscretions. (It will be much the same way that we forget how badly Michael Jordan was criticized, called a gunner and how he couldn’t win the big one before he won his first title. That just sounds silly knowing what we know now.) At this point, however, I think we are close to realizing that he will never reach the absolute peak that his physical abilities call for because of something missing inside.

- Can somebody please explain to me what Cam Newton has that Terrelle Pryor doesn’t? Even if you consider Newton the better prospect, it cannot be the difference between the 1st overall pick in the draft and a 4th or 5th rounder as the reports are saying Pryor will go in the supplemental draft. Personally, I think both have a long way to go to be even a reasonably decent starting quarterback in the NFL and there is a good chance that neither amounts to much at that position. Both, however, have the same incredible upside with their tremendous physical abilities. Heck, I would even guess that as an athlete Pryor will grade out better than Newton. Just weird to me that some teams would value Newton’s upside to be that much more than Pryor’s despite the fact that it was Pryor who was a 3-year starter playing in a pro-style offense and not Newton. I will have much more on Pryor in Friday’s post.

- Game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight and what a crazy series it has been. Vancouver has squeaked out three 1-goal wins at home while losing the three games in Boston by a combined score of 17-3. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s goalie, has looked like two different players at home and on the road while Boston has reached this point on the back of its own net minder, Tim Thomas. I like the Canucks to win a close one tonight. You win games like these on the backs of your superstars (hey Penguins fans, Max Talbot is THE SUPERSTAR right?) and the Canucks have more of those players than the Bruins. Either way, I am sure looking forward to the game tonight. Nothing in sports is better than a game seven, and maybe no game sevens match the intensity and excitement of those in hockey.

- Major League baseball is over 40% of the way through its season and the lack of storylines continues to be a trend. Derek Jeter is now on the DL postponing his 3,000 hits bid, which was inevitable anyways. Almost every team in baseball is still alive for the postseason. There are a few players, Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson come to mind, having fantastic seasons but nobody who is doing something that approaches historical. Scoring continues to be down and there are more pitchers having good years but again, none are doing anything historic. The teams we thought would be good, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, etc. are good and outside of the Twins and Indians, the season has gone pretty much as expected. Really, the biggest story in baseball is the hometown Buccos and their quest to end the streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons. As we sit today, the Pirates are 33-33 and only 4 games out of the division lead. If the Pirates can continue to play at or around .500 I suspect the story will continue to pick up steam nationally.

- Speaking of the Pirates, it will be interesting to see what management does as the trade deadline approaches if they continue to hover around .500 and stay somewhat in contention. From a team building prospective, they should still be in “sell” mode but a run at .500 in August and September, especially if there is no football going on, would be a tremendous financial opportunity for the club and that is part of management’s job as well. I will have a lot more on this next week and my thoughts on what I think the Pirates should do if they continue to play good baseball into mid July.

- Pitt and Penn State have agreed to renew their rivalry on the football field starting in 2016. I know this is a big deal for the alumni bases but sorry, I can’t get excited over a football game five years from now. It is ridiculous that this game has not been played in over ten years and even when it resumes, it will lack the tradition and history the rivalry should have.

- College football is covered in scandal. The NFL is in danger of missing a portion or all of its upcoming season due to labor negotiations. The NBA and NHL have never been more popular. Is this the beginning of the end for football as America’s favorite sport? Probably not, and I suspect that the NFL and the Player’s Association will work something out in time because there is too much money to be lost but with a game that violent and that popular I think it is only a matter of time before the popularity decline begins.

- From my standpoint, the labor negotiations have been this year’s version of the Brett Favre comeback story as the most heavily covered story by the media that the general population doesn’t really care about. Most people could care less about how the two sides split up the $10 billion pie (despite the posturing by the player’s association and the owners blaming the other one) and really only care about whether there will be a season or not. I have kept an eye on the negotiations and court rulings from a general business interest but boy do I get annoyed when I have to listen to the daily updates on Sportscenter or on Mike and Mike when they are talking labor negotiations in mid-May. Despite being force-fed coverage of the lockout for the past four months, it will only be in the next couple of months when the pressure to get a deal done really picks up as fans start to become worried about a season actually being missed and players and owners alike realize that there may not be checks coming in the very near future.

Stanley Cup Playoffs Update

{Editor's Note: The site that runs this blog was down since Thursday night so this entry is going up much later than anticipated. With that occurrence, we will hold off until Monday with the MLB catch-up.}

I am writing this as they drop the puck for game seven of the Detroit-San Jose series, the only series in the second round that has given us any drama and if it wasn’t for the Red Wings rally from a 3-0 deficit this really would have been a boring round of Stanley Cup playoff action. If you are like me you were shocked to see the Lightning sweep the Caps. That’s four straight years Washington has failed to make it out of the Eastern Conference semifinals, twice losing in the first round, despite having Alex Ovechkin and a loaded roster. Despite being the coach of all four of those playoff failing teams, early rumors suggest that the Capitals are going to bring back coach Bruce Boudreau. That one certainly falls under the category of puzzling to me. Here are a few more NHL observations with the occasional update as I flip back and forth between the Sharks-Red Wings and Bulls-Hawks.

• Like I said, I was pretty shocked to see Tampa Bay roll the Capitals the way they did. I thought Washington’s deep and talented forward lines would overwhelm Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson and make it a rather short series in the Capitals favor. Boy, I could not have been more wrong. It just goes to show how different the Stanley Cup playoffs can be. Get a hot goalie, have a few stars on your roster and start playing good hockey at the right time and you can make a deep run. (With the Bulls currently steamrolling the Hawks on ESPN I have turned my attention to the Sharks game where San Jose earns the first power play of the game 11 minutes in.)

• Penguins’ fans taking solace in the fact that the Lightning swept Washington should stop. Just because Tampa Bay looks like they might have gotten on a roll now doesn’t make losing three straight elimination games, two on your home ice, any more excusable. If anything, Pens fans should be wondering “what if” after the Caps suffered another postseason collapse. (Beautiful power-play goal scored by the Sharks’ Devin Setoguchi off a no-look pass from Joe Thornton! Sharks go up 1-0! You might recall that I picked the Sharks to hoist the Cup from the beginning of the playoffs so I am certainly pulling for them tonight if for no other reason than that pick….as far as you know anyways.)

• I patted myself on the back enough yesterday talking about my Heat selection (and I am sure I will get plenty of flack if Miami slips up along the way) but I did want to remind people that I predicted it would be tough sledding in the playoffs for the Penguins without their stars. I took a lot of grief from Penguins fans about Fleury, our defense, and our role players being able to get on a roll but the simple truth in sports is that stars win championships, not role players. With a healthy Crosby and Malkin back next year, the Penguins will be right back on the short list of Cup contenders.

• One other quick Penguins thought before we move on. I love the idea of bringing Jaromir Jagr back if he is willing to come aboard at a reasonable contract. When I say reasonable, I mean one that is not much above the veteran minimum. Jagr can still put the puck in the net, as evidenced by his play at the World Championships, and he would be an instant upgrade on the power play. If “Jags” looks old or isn’t fitting in personality wise, the Penguins could easily give him the boot. If Jagr truly wants to play one more season in the NHL and only for a team that has a chance to compete for the Cup, I really don’t see a better fit than the Penguins. For the team, it could mean a potential low-risk, high reward proposition.

• Although it didn't come as much of a suprise as the Capitals being swept, it was still pretty hard to believe that the Flyers would also lose four straight at the hands of their longtime rivals in Boston. That means the Eastern Conference’s top two teams were both swept in the conference semifinals…pretty hard to believe. Philly’s injuries combined with their ongoing goalie rotation made this sweep a little easier to understand.

• I don’t think many people had a Tampa Bay-Boston matchup in their Stanley Cup playoff bracket. It should be an interesting contrast of styles as well with the defensive-minded Bruins taking on the high-scoring stars of Tampa Bay. I just like the way Roloson is competing in goal right now and think the Lightning have too much fire power for Boston up front. I’m taking the Lightning in six. (Goal by the Sharks! Logan Couture stuffs one in with less than a minute remaining in the 1st period, 2-0 Sharks. Bulls still up big, looks like we’re getting the Heat-Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals.)

• Over in the Western Conference, Vancouver finally rid themselves of their own playoff demons and advanced to the conference finals with a 4-2 series win over the Nashville Predators. The Canucks won a hard fought series in which every game was decided by two goals or less but it never really felt like they were in danger of losing control of the series. The series win has to make goalie Roberto Luongo feel good. Luongo is often considered one of, if not the best goalie in the NHL and had failed to get his team past the 2nd round of the playoffs in his previous three attempts. Luongo was even benched during the Canucks’ first round series for poor play but back-up Cory Schneider was injured in his lone start and Luongo led his team to a game seven win in which he may have established some playoff mojo. If the Sharks are able to hold onto their lead tonight, it would become a battle of the playoff-cursed franchises in the Western Conference Finals.

• What an incredible game seven between the Sharks and Red Wings. Just another example of why nothing in sports beats a game seven and that is especially true in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I thought the Sharks were going to blow not only a 3-0 series lead but a 2-0 and then 3-1 game seven lead in front of their home crowd but somehow, someway the Sharks were able to hold on for a 3-2 win. The Sharks advance to what should be a wonderful Western Conference Final with the Canucks. Many will probably proclaim that this series will be the real Stanley Cup Finals as either team will be heavily favored in the Finals against Tampa Bay or Boston. As you probably guessed, I am sticking with my original pick and taking the Sharks in six over the Canucks.

Catching Up on the NBA Playoffs

The blog has been a little light on content lately as I deal with the usual busy spring season with the real job (I know, who the heck cares about that)but staying up late watching the Grizzlies-Thunder triple overtime thriller on Monday night has inspired me to go overtime this week. Today we’ll catch up on the NBA playoffs and the shocking sweep of the two time defending champs. Tomorrow I will dive into the NHL playoffs and the lack of drama in the second round and finally on Friday we will catch up on the first quarter or so of the MLB season including your .500 Buccos! Now, on to The Association:

• The Lakers sweep at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks would not be so shocking if we just took a short look back on previous Kobe era flameouts. Pretty much every time the Lakers have lost a playoff series since Shaq and Kobe won their first three titles they have gone down with a bang. Starting with the 2003 Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Spurs, each time Kobe’s Lakers have lost a playoff series they have lost it in dramatic fashion. In that 2003 series, the Lakers lost to the underdog Spurs in six games including a 28 point loss to finish the series, they followed that up with a 5-game series loss to the heavily underdog Pistons in the ‘04 NBA Finals, a 31-point loss to the Suns in ’06 when Kobe quit in the second half of game 7, a first round loss in five games to the Suns in ’07 and a 39 point loss to the Celtics in game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2008. Throw in the embarrassing game 4 in the Mavs’ sweep this year and you can’t help but question the Lakers ability to compete when their backs are against the wall.

• What this says about Kobe Bryant in particular I am not real sure but for a guy who prides himself on his fierce competitive attitude, it has to be both embarrassing to him and counterintuitive to this perception for the rest of us. Could you ever imagine Michael Jordan going out like that? How about Larry Bird? Kobe’s place and legacy as a top 10 or so player of all-time is safe, but let’s forget about the conversation placing him anywhere near those guys. This is coming from a Kobe guy, mind you.

• The Lakers were beat by a pretty good team, though, so for as much as the story is about the Lakers getting swept, let us give credit to the Mavericks for a great series and a truly great shooting performance. Dirk Nowitzki is certainly enhancing his legacy as the greatest foreign born player of all time and he is quickly approaching the Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan class as the greatest power forward of all time.

• If you haven’t been watching much of the Oklahoma City-Memphis series, do yourself a favor and make it a point to watch the final three games. I know many people may not have been intrigued by this series between the late start times and the lack of familiarity with these rosters but this series has been phenomenal from the start and could very well be the beginning of a fierce rivalry for Western Conference supremacy over the coming years. Both teams are loaded with young talent, highlighted of course by the Blog’s former poster boy in Kevin Durant. The fierceness and competitiveness of this series was in full display during Monday night’s triple overtime thriller that the Thunder were able to pull out to even the series. I still think the Thunder win this series because Durant is the best player on the court but I am hoping for our viewing pleasure that it goes the distance.

• A Dallas-Oklahoma City Western Conference Finals may not have the flare that any series involving the Lakers would have but it would be an absolutely fantastic series that I could see going at least six and probably seven games. I don’t think Memphis-Dallas would be as great for drama purposes as Dallas’ veteran presence and ability to match Memphis’ size in the post would make it a fairly short series in the Mavericks’ favor. Needless to say I am rooting for a Durant-Dirk dual in the Western Conference Finals.

• Over in the Eastern Conference we have seen much more of what was anticipated outside of the Hawks upset of the Magic in the first round. Chicago, Boston and Miami put away their series in relatively short fashion.

• It may be of surprise to some that the Heat are up 3-1 on the Celtics, but not to me. I picked the Heat to win the title before the season, I urged patience when they got off to a slow start, I stuck with them when they lost five consecutive games near the end of the season and I picked them before the playoffs began. Guess what, I am still picking them. They have the best player in the world (by a larger margin than most people want to admit) and the guy who is at a minimum in the conversation for the 2nd best player on the planet. You could put a couple of puppies around them and they could contend for the title but they have another top 20 player and a few veteran role players who have been through the gauntlet before. That’s why I have never really waivered from my opinion that they are the best team in the league. I thought the Lakers could give the Heat fits with their size but I guess we’ll never get the opportunity to find out. It would be fun to see the Thunder take on the Heat in the Finals, though, in what could become the beginning of many great battles between Durant and LeBron.

• I am putting the finishing touches on this post as I watch the Bulls and Hawks battle in game five of their series (Editor’s note: The Bulls pulled out a 95-83 victory with a strong fourth quarter). I am big fan of Derrick Rose. I think he is the point guard version of LeBron James with the ability to dominate the game with his pure athleticism, combining speed, power and quickness. Rose may have even deserved the NBA MVP for the contributions he made to his own team during the regular season (he would have been fourth in my personal ballot but ultimately I did not have a big problem with Rose winning the award). Watching the playoffs, however, we can see why he is still just a step below the Kobe, LeBron and Wades of the league. When Rose is on he is almost unstoppable but when he’s off he doesn’t have the ability to dominate the game in other areas the way the greats do. I think Rose could reach that potential, he already took one big leap forward on the defensive end this year, but he needs to improve his playmaking ability for his teammates and begin to dominate on the defensive end the way LeBron and Kobe do when their teams need it.

• The Bulls will probably get past the Hawks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals but that’s where their phenomenal 2010-2011 season will end. I thought before the second round began that Boston-Miami was the real Eastern Conference Finals and watching this Bulls-Hawks series has just solidified that opinion for me. Start preparing yourself now for some over-the-top, can’t watch Sportscenter anymore hype when the Heat are battling the Mavs or Thunder in the NBA Finals.

Pirates Showing Improvement

Those that stayed up late last night saw the Pirates commit a series of miscues and poor decisions that led to blowing a late lead and a shot at .500. The loss had the feel of one of those “same old Buccos” losses that we have become accustomed to over the past 18 years. Those losses, however, have been few and far between so far this year. At the 30-game mark, the Pirates sit a respectable 14-16 and only three games out of first place in the NL Central. While the Pirates have gotten off to some decent starts during their current consecutive losing seasons streak, there is some legitimate cause for hope stemming from this relative batch of competent play.

First, the Pirates run-differential of -20 is worse than a normal team you would expect to be 2 games under .500 but that number is heavily skewed from a truly terrible series in Florida a couple weeks ago in which the Pirates were outscored 21-5 in the Marlins three game sweep. The Pirates run differential in their other 27 games is -4, essentially what you would expect from a .500 or slightly below team. Second, the Pirates record is not built on a mirage of wins in one run games. The Pirates 5-4 record in games decided by one run and 7-6 record in games decided by two runs or less is pretty much par for the course for any Major League team. In the past, the Pirates respectable starts have been fueled by an inordinate amount of one run wins, games that are statistically proven to be complete toss-ups no matter how good (or how bad) a team is. Last year, for example, the Pirates got off to an identical 14-16 record but that came about from a 6-2 record in games decided by one run and a 10-2 record in games decided by two runs or less. The writing was on the wall that the 2010 Buccos would come crashing back down to earth, which they soon did losing 35 of their next 47 games.

Third and most importantly, is that the Pirates have received little contribution from their two best players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen has a proven track record at this point. In over 1,000 career at-bats Cutch has a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .815. Those numbers are pretty much the minimum we should expect from a guy entering his age 24 season. As of last night, the Pirates center fielder is batting .222 and has an OPS of .737. Alvarez, without the track record possessed by McCutchen, can at least be expected to provide some power. Alvarez hit 16 HRs in 347 at-bats last year, or a HR every 21 at-bats or so. This year Alvarez has just 1 HR in his first 99 at-bats and is slugging just .283 on the season. Even if you do not believe Alvarez is the real deal, which I do by the way, you have to at least admit he is going to hit home runs at a rate a good bit better than 1 per every 100 at-bats. Alvarez’ minor league track record also suggests that he is a slow starter, meaning we should begin to see some major improvement from him in the coming weeks.

With McCutchen setting the table and Alvarez providing some pop that the Pirates desperately need, I expect the Pirates to drastically improve upon their 3.6 runs per game that currently ranks 15th in the National League. I do not expect the Pirates to become the ’27 Yankees overnight but somewhere around the eighth to tenth best offense in the National League can be expected.

While the Pirates’ line-up has generally underperformed to this point, with the notable exception of Garrett Jones, the pitching has been even better than Clint Hurdle and his staff could have hoped for. Kevin Correia, who takes the mound for the Pirates tonight as they try to win their fifth road series of the season, has a 2.90 ERA in six starts. Charlie Morton is at 3.52 and Paul Maholm has an ERA of 4.14. The career ERAs of those three starters are 4.48, 5.65 and 4.46, respectively. While none of the three can be expected to keep up their current pace, it is reasonable to assume based on their history, their home ballpark and the Pirates relatively solid defense (as well as Morton’s new pitching motion and style), that each will finish the season with an ERA in the low to mid fours.

The funny thing is that the Pirates’ ERA of 3.73 (which ranks 10th in the NL and while that doesn’t sound great it is a remarkable improvement from the Majors’ worst staff a year ago) is respectable despite terrible performances so far from the Pirates three most dependable pitchers from last year in James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf and Evan Meek. The Pirates are certainly hoping for and can reasonably expect more from McDonald and Ohlendorf, who have combined to give up 30 earned runs in only 39 innings of work. Both McDonald and Ohlendorf had career ERAs as starters in the low fours entering the season. At the end of the day, the Pirates have a rotation full of #3, #4 or #5 type starters. Those guys are not going to win you the pennant but they can certainly keep a team respectable and competitive through the course of a season.

Summing everything up, the Pirates’ hitting should see some expected improvement as McCutchen and Alvarez begin coming around while the pitching should see things return to more reasonable individual expectations but stay relatively the same from an overall standpoint. I have some legitimate hope, for the first time in a long time, that this Pirates team can remain competitive for the balance of the season. That isn’t to say that Pirates fans should expect the team to compete for a playoff spot but a more reasonable goal of 70-75 wins is a possibility. Seeing where this team was the past few years and that the core of it should be in Pittsburgh for at least the next few years, there is finally reason to believe that there actually is hope sometime in the near future. That should be considered improvement in itself.

Recapping the Draft (Round 1)

You may have noticed that I have not talked much about the NFL on the blog lately and for good reason. It is impossible to talk about the NFL without getting into the current labor dispute and quite frankly, I don’t care about it. We are talking about billionaires, multi-millionaires and millionaires fighting over how to split up a $9 billion revenue pie while playing in publicly funded stadiums and charging ridiculous prices to fans all while being protected by antitrust laws that go against every business principle the United States was founded upon. See, I had to go there didn’t I?!?

Both the owners and players have a ton to lose by going through the legal system (the NFL is already learning this the hard way) and by September this will be much ado about nothing. The season will go on, there’s about $9 billion reasons why after the NFL lost its case trying to collect from the TV networks during the lockout, and by the second or third week of the season we will have all forgot about this dumb lockout.

To be honest, I have actually enjoyed the relatively little news coming from the NFL this offseason. It allowed fans everywhere to enjoy other sports without enduring the latest Brett Favre comeback update or veteran, crappy linebacker A signed with non-playoff team B, or whatever stories and rumors that usually get gobbled up by the millions of intense football fans around the country. It is now the end of April, however, and the NFL Draft is upon us. March Madness is over, the NBA and NHL playoffs are nearing their midpoint and training camp is just a little over two months away. It is time to start talking some football again.

So let’s quit talking about the off-field activity and dive into the draft. Last year I spent a ton of time putting together a mock draft and while I enjoyed doing it and got a lot of positive feedback on the piece, I realized once the draft began how largely worthless it became. This year, with no free agency and teams still having lots of line-up needs as a result, it seemed senseless to put together a mock draft when there were just so many possibilities for every team. Besides, there are a million mock drafts out there on the internet and each one is more wrong than the last. So this year I decided to do a recap on the draft, pick-by-pick, and let you know what I thought about last night’s 1st round proceedings. This format should provide some insight on each player, each team and really provide a general overview of the NFL as we head into next season. That is the hope anyways…so here we go!

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB Auburn – Say what you want about Newton but the guy has a tremendous upside. He may be a longshot to reach that upside, and there is probably no middle ground with him, but I would still rather take that chance than draft one of the other QBs from the remainder of this, in my opinion, awful QB class. Would I have taken Newton 1st overall? Heck no, mostly because the price attached to taking such a risk. But I haven’t had the benefit that the Panthers did in researching, interviewing and studying Newton on and off the field. The Panthers also have the benefit of a strong running game and a new coach that should allow him to ease into the position. The key for the Panthers will be to build an offense around his strengths.

2. Denver Broncos – Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M – Miller is a tremendous physical specimen and a fantastic pass rusher from the outside but this pick puzzled me a bit. Most thought Miller was more of a prototypical 4-3 defensive end who could get after the QB. The Broncos are switching to a 3-4 defense this year and already have a star player in Elvis Dumervil who fits the role of edge rusher from the outside linebacker position, the position most assume Miller will play as well. John Elway may have gone with the best player available approach, a strategy I usually agree with, but in this instance I think Marcell Dareus made more since. One thing is for sure, however, and that is the Broncos desire to get after the quarterback this year on the defensive side of the ball.

3. Buffalo Bills – Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama – Speaking of Dareus, it didn’t take long for the Bills to snatch him up after Denver passed. The Bills have a ton of holes on both sides of the ball but they address their biggest concern with Dareus and that is improving the league’s worst defense against the run last year.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR Georgia – Green was the best player in this draft in my opinion. He is fast, runs good patterns, catches everything and can run after the catch. With TO moving on and Ochocinco most likely doing the same, the Bengals can begin to build their new-look offense around Green. The question now becomes who will be the guy to get him the ball? Rumors have the Bengals trying to move up to draft TCU QB Andy Dalton in the 2nd round. I doubt he is the answer but is worth the risk of a second round pick if they do not have to give up too much.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Peterson, CB LSU – Great pick by the Cardinals here. They did not particularly need to address a mediocre secondary but did so by getting the best defensive player and best athlete in the draft. Peterson should be able to immediately bolster the Cardinals pass defense and will most likely make a splash in their return game as well. If the Cards can acquire a veteran QB to get the ball out to Fitzgerald they could quickly become the frontrunners in the NFC West again.

6. Atlanta Falcons – Julio Jones, WR Alabama – The Falcons certainly wanted a premier WR to put opposite of Roddy White, that’s for sure. The Falcons gave up a ton to move up 21 spots and take Jones, a physical WR who is great in run and catch situations and should be a great compliment to White. I like the move by the Falcons who need quality at this point of their team building, not quantity, and Jones could be the player needed to push them over the hump in the NFC. For Cleveland, I thought the trade was fantastic. The Browns have a ton of holes to fill and picking up a 2nd and 4th rounder this year and a 1st and 4th next year in addition to the 27th pick and the Brownies could easily have shortened their rebuilding project by a substantial margin.

7. San Francisco 49ers – Aldon Smith, DE Missouri – Jim Harbaugh is the coach closest to the college game having coached at Stanford last year and Harbaugh agrees with me that no QB in this class should be labeled a “franchise” guy. Desperate for a franchise QB, the Niners passed on the position to take Smith, a guy that I did not particularly like in this spot. Smith is a guy who can get after the quarterback and that is what they were targeting but I thought there were a number of better players on the board at this point. Maybe Harbaugh is trying to tank this year with Alex Smith at QB so he can land his protégé Andrew Luck in next year’s draft.

8. Tennessee Titans – Jake Locker, QB Washington – Terrible reach #1 on the night and a special thank you from all other AFC South fans to Jeff Fisher for stepping down as coach. I guess all you need to be considered a franchise quarterback in the minds of NFL personnel at this point is to “elevate” your program to a 6-6 record and an appearance in some crappy bowl game in your fourth year as the starter.

Quick tangent: Does Jon Gruden ever say anything negative? Check that, does he ever say anything negative about players or teams that he might want to coach for at some point in the future? Seriously, I never hear Gruden criticize a player or team and every time I hear his analysis I wonder how that guy was ever a good coach. He really is the next coming of John Madden. I mention him here because he was profusely defending Locker as a quarterback. After Kiper hit him with all the statistical reasons that Locker was a bum, including his extremely low completion percentage, Gruden threw this gem at him, “You guys can have your stats. He threw the ball away 66 times last year.”

9. Dallas Cowboys, Tyron Smith, OT USC – Very solid pick from the Cowboys here who needed to beef up their protection for Tony Romo. Smith is a phenomenal athlete for a tackle but probably has to put on a few pounds to be a true impact player at the left tackle position. Still, Smith is a very good player that addresses a big area of need for the Cowboys and he should be able to come in and contribute right away.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri – I am not sure what to make of this pick. I guess I like Gabbert more than any other QB in this class besides Newton and at number 10 he’s not a terrible value but the Jaguars did have to give up their second round pick to get him. My best guess is that Gabbert becomes no better of a pro than the Jags’ current QB, David Garrard. Still, not a bad risk at this point since the Missouri product does have the size, arm and athleticism to be a very good NFL quarterback.

11. Houston Texans – J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin – Watt was a good player in college and will be a good player in the NFL. Nothing exciting about this pick but it was a good one for Houston as Watt is a good fit to play defensive end as the Texans transition to the 3-4 defense.

12. Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder, QB Florida St. – Terrible reach #2 on the evening! I am not even sure Ponder was the best QB on his FSU team last year. For a team that is probably not that far removed from Super Bowl contention, I really do not understand this pick. Maybe the plan is to still bring in a veteran quarterback and allow Ponder to grow under that guy but I still don’t see a very high upside for this kid. Any of the following three picks would have made a whole lot more sense to me for Minnesota.

13. Detroit Lions – Nick Fairley, DT Auburn – Wow, the Lions had to be extremely pleased to see Fairley on the board this late despite the defensive line already being an area of strength for the team. When the draft process began, you know when the actual football games were being played, Fairley was heavily considered the best player in the draft. The questions surrounding Fairley’s work ethic and motor should be moot as he plays next to Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch, two relentless workers and great leaders. The Lions’ defensive line has the chance to be one of the best individual units in football next year with Fairley’s addition.

14. St. Louis Rams – Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina – Another tremendous value pick here for the Rams. Quinn did not play last year because of suspension but if he had many figured him to have been a possible top 5 pick. The Rams did not particularly need a defensive end but with the addition of Quinn on the opposite side of Chris Long the Rams, much like the Lions, could be tremendous up front on the defensive side of the football.

15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey, OC Florida – From all of the reading I did leading up to the draft it doesn’t sound like Maurkice’s little brother would have went this high if he had a different last name. That being said, the other Pouncey is a good prospect and fills a position of need for the Miami Dolphins as they try to improve the interior of their offensive line. Pouncey’s ability to play center or guard should also allow the Dolphins some flexibility on how they construct that o-line.

16. Washington Redskins – Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue – Kerrigan was a tremendously productive player as a defensive end in college but will switch to OLB in the 3-4 for the Redskins. I suspect Kerrigan will be a good player for the Redskins but will probably never be elite. For a team with a lot of holes though, he is more of a sure thing and a good pick.

17. New England Patriots – Nate Solder, OT Colorado – For the way scouts talked about Solder and cornerback Jimmy Smith from Colorado it makes you wonder why the Buffaloes were so terrible. Solder is a solid pick for the Patriots as they try to rebuild an aging offensive line and should provide some flexibility with his ability to play both left and right tackle. The Patriots biggest concern going forward should be how to keep Tom Brady standing up.

18. San Diego Chargers – Corey Liuget, DT Illinois – Another reach for me, although this was an area of need for the Chargers as Liuget will most likely play defensive end in the Chargers scheme. Liuget was a productive player in college but never stood out for me as a star. He has a nonstop motor and should be a decent player for the Chargers, although I’m not sure decent is the goal for a first round pick.

19. New York Giants - Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska - With a number of teams seemingly reaching for quarterbacks or other positions a few others were able to take great advantage. The Giants were one of those landing Amukamara, who many had rated as a top 10 talent. Both Giants’ starting corners are free agents after the 2011 season so Prince gives the Giants insurance in case one should bolt and playing in the NFC East a team can never have enough corners anyhow. Tremendous pick here for the G-Men.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa – Another Big Ten defensive lineman, the fourth (and third defensive end) in the last ten picks. Clayborn is a playmaker despite suffering from a disease that effects the use of his right arm and should fit in nicely at defensive end for Tampa’s Cover 2 scheme.

21. Cleveland Browns – Phil Taylor, DT Baylor – The Browns gave up a third round pick to the Chiefs to move up six spots and select Taylor, the best pure nose tackle in the draft. In what seems to be a theme around the league the Browns look like they are also moving towards a 3-4 defensive scheme. Taylor is a big, nasty, in the trenches type of player who should be a good fit anchoring the Browns defensive line.

22. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College – Much like the Patriots, the Colts primary goal going forward has to be keeping Peyton Manning on his feet. Castonzo is a polished prospect that will most likely come in and start right away.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Danny Watkins, OG Baylor – Typical Eagles pick here and a good one. Watkins is 26-years-old after spending a few years away from football so he is more mature than your typical rookie and he should come in and start right away. Nobody drafts up front better than Andy Reid and company and I see no reason why this pick should be any different. The Eagles also need a corner but my guess is that they are heavily involved in the Nnamdi Asomugha bidding war whenever the free agency period starts.

24. New Orleans Saints – Cameron Jordan, DE California – Jordan fills a critical need for the Saints at defensive end and will be counted on to provide pressure on opposing QBs. We know the Saints are set on the offensive side of the ball and Jordan should help where it is needed most.

25. Seattle Seahawks – James Carpenter, OG Alabama – This is not the flashy pick that many expected from the Seahawks but it is a good pick and should help sure up the Hawks’ offensive line. Seattle is probably in the market for a quarterback somewhere in the draft and can probably pick up a Ryan Mallett, Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick in the second round, all guys who offer as much upside (or downside) as the guys who went much, much earlier.

26. Kansas City Chiefs – Jonathan Baldwin, WR Pitt – This is where the weirdness started as the Bears and Ravens are reported to have had a trade in place and the Bears never called into the league offices to confirm. Time elapsed and the Ravens were skipped by the Chiefs for the 26th pick where they took the Pitt wide out. Baldwin has some question marks surrounding him but he is a tremendous athlete, big and has great ball skills. He should fit in well across from Dwayne Bowe as the Chiefs deep-ball threat, if Cassel can throw the ball far enough that is.

27. Baltimore Ravens – Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado – The Ravens were probably a little perturbed at the Bears with the botched trade as I am guessing they could have still landed Smith with the 29th selection and picked up a fourth rounder in the process but at least they still landed their guy. Many consider Smith the second best corner in this draft behind Peterson and the only reason he slipped was character concerns. I am not as high on Smith but for the 27th pick it is hard to argue with the value and the Ravens were desperate for corner help.

28. New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram, RB Alabama – The Patriots traded back in the draft to pick up extra picks? No way! I do like the deal on both ends, however, as the Patriots pick up an extra first rounder next year while sliding back about 28 spots while the Saints land their heir apparent at running back. Ingram’s versatility and ability to catch the ball will be a perfect fit in Sean Payton’s attack and probably signals the end of the Reggie Bush era in ‘Nawlins.

29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin – The Bears gave up 56 sacks last year and despite Mike Martz’ scheme and Jay Cutler’s propensity to hold on to the ball too long, an upgrade on the offensive line was needed. Carimi should be a good player at right tackle for the Bears and fills their biggest need along the offensive line. He probably won’t be a pro-bowler but he should be a good player in this league for a long time.

30. New York Jets - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE Temple – The Jets had to be thrilled to land Wilkerson this late in the first round and the Temple product will be expected to come in and provide help on the Jets’ aging defensive line immediately. The Jets, Steelers and Packers all got great values at the end of the first round due to so many reaches above them. It is no wonder that the same teams are competing for championships year in and year out.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St. – Ironhead Heyward’s son is an incredible fit for the Steelers and a real find at the end of the first round. Heyward was an extremely productive player and often the star on the Buckeyes defense in his four years in Columbus and is the prototype to play defensive end in the 3-4. This may signal, however, that the Steelers do not expect much from the return of Aaron Smith. If Smith does return, the Steelers have a pretty scary two-deep rotation for the next year or two on the defensive line and have their anchors at defensive end in Ziggy Hood and Heyward for years to come. Now the Steelers must address their depth at corner and on the offensive line in the next couple of rounds.

32. Green Bay Packers – Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State – The Packers, much like the Steelers, do not have many holes to fill as they are fresh off their Super Bowl title and have 16 guys returning from injured reserve. One place they did need to sure up, and begin planning for the future, was on the offensive line. The Pack did that with Sherrod who, along with their first round pick last year in Brian Bulaga, could form the bookends for the Packers’ offensive line for the next decade.

Penguins Blow Opportunities, Series

There is nothing more unpredictable in sports than a game seven in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year we watched in shock as the Montreal Canadiens took it to the Penguins on their home ice in a series where most thought Pittsburgh had the superior team. Last night we had to sit there in horror as the Penguins dominated puck possession, scoring chances and physical play but couldn’t get a single puck in the back of the net on their way to a 1-0 shutout loss. With or without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, anything can happen in a game seven. That is why it was so disappointing to see the Penguins blow chances in games five and six with a chance to close out Tampa Bay. Ultimately the series was lost by the Penguins inability to score goals, something I have been cautioning about for weeks now, as they scored only 14 goals in seven games. Looking back, however, it was the Penguins failed opportunities in games five and six and their failed opportunities on all but one of their 30 something power plays during the series that cost the Penguins a chance to move forward even without number 87 on the ice.

I predicted before the series that the Penguins would win in six. I thought they could get past the first round based on the goaltending match-up and their superior defense. I cautioned, however, that if this series went to seven that the Pens could be in trouble without a star to rely on. This is almost exactly what happened last night. Despite dominating the puck for most of the game and getting a solid, if not great, performance from Marc-Andre Fleury, the Penguins couldn’t get a single shot behind Lightning goaltender Dwayne Roloson. This year, without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it was imperative for the Penguins to avoid a game seven against a team full of superstars like Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steven Stamkos, among others. Sure it was none of the Lightning stars who scored the only goal in game seven, rather it was grinder Sean Bergenheim, but it was the failure of the Penguins to produce a goal whether at even strength or on any of their five power plays. Needless to say, the Penguins could have used a guy they could have relied upon for offense.

The good news is that unlike most playoff losses that begin the “what happened” discussions and “what needs to be done for next year” questions, this one is pretty easy to explain and the pieces are already in place to make the Penguins one of the top Cup favorites for next year. Crosby and Malkin will be back and probably hungrier than ever. Fleury, Staal, Orpik, Letang, Neal, Martin, Michalek, Kunitz and Kennedy are all signed through next year and in most cases a couple of years beyond. Sure, General Manager Ray Shero has some decisions to make on role players such as Max Talbot and if he should trade Matt Cooke, but based on his track record we can expect Shero to make the best of those decisions. The Penguins fatal flaw this year was their inability to score goals. That is something that is pretty easily remedied by plugging two of the world’s best players back in the line-up. It is a sad day for Penguins fans, mostly because of the blown opportunities that the Penguins had in the series, but there is a lot to look forward to next year and beyond.

Catching Up on the Playoffs

Both the NHL and NBA playoffs are in full gear now and while we can start to see who may prevail in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, I think the first round in the NBA is scheduled to end sometime around Memorial Day. In all seriousness, I know the NBA spreads its games out for national TV purposes but come on now…nearly three weeks for the first round to be played out is ridiculous. David Stern and his office need to come up with a better plan for this schedule. Why not use staggered start times like the NHL or NCAA tournament does so that TNT or whoever is covering that night’s games could air the fourth quarter of every game if it is close? There is no way that the Magic-Hawks game on NBATV last night was watched by many households outside of Orlando or Atlanta. Why in the world did they need three days between games one and two? I consider Stern the best commissioner in sports but he needs to shorten the amount of time this first round stretches to keep fans interested and to get to the more juicy match-ups in the later rounds.

Now that we got today’s rant out of the way, here are some other thoughts from around the NBA and NHL playoffs:

NHL

• The Penguins lead their series with the Lighting 2-1 heading into game four tonight despite having the worst special teams play amongst all playoff teams so far. The Pens are 0-15 on the power play and their penalty kill has given up 4 goals on 11 tries (63.7% kill rate), both good for last among the teams still playing. If the Penguins want to continue playing, they better find a way to even this disadvantage out in a hurry.

• There really have been no surprises so far in the NHL playoffs. The only higher seeded teams to trail in their series right now are Anaheim and Boston who are both down 2- 1. Being that these two series were looked at as the most even coming in neither comes as a big surprise and both favorites have plenty of opportunity to come back. The other perceived evenly matched series between Buffalo and Philadelphia has also been close and the difference in Philadelphia’s two games to one lead was inserting backup goalie Brian Boucher in net in the middle of game two. Boucher led the comeback in game two and was the starter in the Flyers’ game three win. All three of these series could easily come down to a game seven.

• Detroit and Vancouver look like the class of the Western Conference, ignoring the Canucks beating last night at the hands of the Blackhawks in what I saw as the defending champions’ last gasp. Detroit goes for the sweep tonight in Phoenix and the Canucks should close out Chicago on home ice tomorrow. If the two should meet in the conference finals it should be an unbelievable series. San Jose was my pick to come out of the Western Conference and the Sharks are up 2-1 on the Kings but they needed overtime in both of their victories and have not inspired a ton of confidence the way they have played against a depleted Los Angeles team.

• If we could skip ahead for a moment and assume the Penguins get past Tampa Bay, - I know, a big assumption right now and a terrible jinx on the Pens! - I think Pens’ fans should be pulling for Philadelphia and Montreal to win their respective series. That would set up the Penguins to play the Flyers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, a series the Penguins could win with or without the return of their captain. I would much rather see Philadelphia and their goaltending situation (not to mention a team that the Pens have owned in the playoffs) than go up against either the Canadiens or the Capitals in the next round. Let’s allow those two teams to beat up on each other for a couple of weeks and have the Penguins take on the winner in the Eastern Conference Finals.

NBA

• In stark contrast to the NHL playoffs, the NBA has been chalk full of surprises with three heavy underdogs taking game one on the road and the other five giving the higher seeded team everything they could handle. While all five home teams have won their game two so far, the Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls and Magic were all put to the test before ultimately pulling out home victories. Only the Heat have shown any semblance of being the vastly superior team in their series. Three more game twos take place tonight with, and this is weird to type, both the Spurs and Lakers trying to even up their respective series.

• The biggest shock among the game one upsets was the Lakers losing at Staples Center against a Hornets team that could more accurately be called “Chris Paul and a bunch of nobodies”. New Orleans’ second best player, David West, is out for the year with a torn ACL and the Hornets relied heavily on Aaron Gray in the post. Yes, that is the same Aaron Gray that some Pitt fans are still wondering if he can even dunk. Paul is an unbelievable player and hopefully those that so quickly wanted to anoint Derrick Rose the best point guard in basketball witnessed Paul’s 33 points - 14 assists- 7 rebounds - 4 steals effort on Sunday but there is really no excuse the Lakers could have for losing this game. An overwhelming favorite to come out of the West for a chance at another three-peat, the Lakers proved that they are more vulnerable than many of us may have thought. I think the loss also opened the eyes of the rest of the Western Conference that this thing really is up for grabs.

• The team that could really be licking their chops is the Oklahoma City Thunder. I know I mentioned them as a dark horse in my playoff preview but nobody else in the Western Conference has the personnel to match-up with either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets and their 10-deep rotation are going to give the Thunder everything they can handle in round one but ultimately I think we end up with a tremendous Western Conference Finals between Ok City and L.A.

• In the East we are still tracking for a fantastic final four of Chicago, Miami, Boston and Orlando. Although, as I said earlier, only the Heat have shown even a glimpse of their tremendous potential through the early parts of round one. It is just a shame that we have to wait another two weeks until the playoffs can really begin in the Eastern Conference in all likelihood.

NBA Playoff Wishes and Predictions

The NBA Playoffs tip-off today and we are potentially setting up for the best two months of playoff basketball in my lifetime. Eight different teams, in my opinion anyway, have a chance to win the whole thing if they get the right match-ups and get hot at the right time. Realistically, however, there are five teams with “anything less than the title would be a disappointment” aspirations. Those five are the Lakers and Spurs out West and the Bulls, Heat and Celtics in the East. The three darkhorses are the Mavericks, Magic and Thunder…although the Mavericks have really limped to the finish line. I have three wishes for these playoffs:

1. The top four seeds in each conference win their opening round series setting up the best conference semifinals of all-time.

2. We get to see a Chicago-Miami Eastern Conference Final. This series could have the potential to be an instant classic with the defensive-minded, crazily intense Bulls going head to head with LeBron and D-Wade. Not to mention a Boston-Chicago series could take basketball back to the early 90s slugfests that turned so many off from professional basketball.

3. The Lakers make it to the Finals from the West. It really doesn’t matter who comes out of the East as Boston, Chicago or Miami would make for an unbelievable Finals as long as Kobe, Pau, Phil and Company are there trying for a 3-peat. Of course a LeBron versus Kobe Finals is what we have all been begging to happen for a few years now but Lakers-Bulls or Lakers-Celtics wouldn’t be bad consolation prizes.

If those three wishes come true, even if you are not a NBA fan, believe me when I tell you that you’ll want to be watching. The league has never been so full of stars and when you start talking about a second round featuring at least 18 future or potential Hall of Famers spread across the eight teams we are in for a real treat. (Kobe, Gasol, Duncan, Ginobli, Dirk, Kidd, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Garnett, Allen and Pierce are locks for the HOF and Durant, Westbrook, Rose, Bosh, Parker and Rondo are all well on their way.)

As for my Finals predictions, I’m taking Miami to outlast Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals proving why LeBron, and not Derrick Rose, is the best player in the NBA and should have won this year’s NBA MVP. I know it’s a foregone conclusion that Rose is going to win it this year, he’s the best story and was the best offensive player on the league’s best team, but that’s only because most people (in this case the media members with award votes) only understand what they can see. They don’t understand that the Bulls were far and away the best defensive team in basketball and that is the biggest reason why their wins took a dramatic uptick. It is true that LeBron had Wade there to help him and the Bulls have nobody else on his level, but the Bulls prominently feature Noah, Boozer, Deng and the best frontcourt defensive tandem in basketball coming off the bench. The Heat would die for any of these players, spent the year trying to figure out their identity, Bosh underachieving, and quite possibly the worst point guard and center play in the league yet still won 58 games, the third most in the NBA mostly because LeBron is the league's best player.

I hated what LeBron did this summer. I wanted to stop liking him as a player, which I couldn’t. I agree that Derrick Rose is a great story and has taken his game to a whole new level. He is right there now with Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the league’s best point guard debate. None of that, however, changes the fact that James is far and away the NBA’s best and Most Valuable Player this year, and for the foreseeable future.

On to the predictions:

Eastern Conference

Bulls over Pacers in four.
Heat over 76ers in five.
Celtics over Knicks in five.
Magic over Hawks in five.

Bulls over Magic in seven.
Heat over Celtics in six.

Heat over Bulls in six.

Western Conference

Spurs over Grizzlies in six.
Lakers over Hornets in four.
Mavericks over Trailblazers in seven.
Thunder over Nuggets in six.

Thunder over Spurs in six.
Lakers over Mavericks in five.

Lakers over Thunder in seven.

NBA Finals

Yes, I am going with our dream match-up to come true. Could you imagine the hype around this series? Kobe going for his sixth ring to tie Jordan. Phil Jackson going for his fourth 3-peat as coach. LeBron going for his first title, Wade going for his second and Chris Bosh tagging along. Ratings would be through the roof, the Heat Index might explode on ESPN and we would all be sick of Sportscenter previews before the Series even began. So…who will win? I honestly can’t give a prediction without second guessing myself. I don’t know how the Heat could handle Gasol, Bynum and Odom inside. I don’t know how the Lakers could handle Wade and LeBron in transition. All I do know is that I hope this series happens. I am taking the easy way out and predicting the Heat in seven since they have home court but the real winners would be us, the fans.

Friday Smorgasbord!

No need for a preamble, let’s dive right in!

• The Penguins played what quite possibly was their best game of the season since Crosby’s injury in game one. It was hard to tell if the Penguins were able to raise their level of play that much or if the Lighting were a little shell-shocked by the intensity of the playoffs. Either way, if the Penguins continue to get that kind of play from Marc-Andre Fleury in net and the power play continues to show some life, the Pens are going to be a tough out for anyone even without Sid. With him, I think they just might become the favorite once again.

• Six of the eight teams I predicted to move on in round one won their opening game. I am not sure if that is good or if missing the two upsets everyone was calling for is bad. It is still early, however, and winning game one doesn’t mean a whole lot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hopefully the Penguins remember that.

• So much for that great Pirates’ start. After losing five of their last six, the Buccos are now 5-7 and trail four other teams in the NL Central. Sure the standings, and even the records, are not very important this time of the year but it would have been nice if this team could have sustained some momentum from the strong early start.

• The good news is that the Pirates starting rotation has continued to perform pretty well. Outside of the opening day defeat the Pirates have been in every game thanks to their starting pitching. Hopefully the pitching doesn’t deteriorate when the bats decide to wake up.

• Fresh off seeing him in person here in Pittsburgh last week is it time to start calling Troy Tulowitzki the best player in baseball? Well let me be the first! You remember when the national outlets start talking about this guy as the best player in the game that you heard it here first. Going back to last September, “Tulo” has hit 22 home runs in his last 42 games while playing the best shortstop in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy so we can all enjoy a full season’s worth.

• The guy Tulowitzki reminds me of is a young Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez, by the way, is far from done himself. About the only player in baseball matching what the Rockies shortstop is doing is the former best player in the game. Tulowitzki is first and Rodriguez is second in the majors in OPS and nobody else is close through the early part of the season.

• How about that Masters finish on Sunday? That was quite possibly the best golf on television I have seen with so many guys hitting important shot after important shot. It very well might have been the return of Tiger Woods as well. For more on that, I know I can’t say it any better than the Sports Guy did, so I will just link to his column: Bill Simmons

• I was going to post my NBA playoff predictions as part of the Smorgasbord but I will hold off and have a separate post going up Saturday morning. Check back then to see who I like in the opening round and a little commentary on the foregone conclusion that Derrick Rose is the NBA MVP this year…

NHL Playoffs Preview and Predictions

I have a range of topics I need to hit on including the opening couple of weeks of the baseball season, the NBA MVP and Tiger’s charge on Sunday but I will save those for a smorgasbord on Friday because today is the start of the most grueling postseason in sports, the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hockey’s postseason is two months of drag-it-out, knock-you-down, insanely intense hockey that I couldn’t do justice with words.

This year’s playoffs is as wide open as I can ever remember it being and that is saying something when just last year we had the number seven and eight seeds playing in the Eastern Conference Finals. For proof, just look at the top two seeds from each conference; Washington, Philadelphia, Vancouver and San Jose. When a team from Philadelphia (not named the Phillies) inspires the most postseason confidence you just know this thing is up for grabs. Let’s get into a little preview of each of the eight opening round series and my prediction for each. Let’s just say that I’m not exactly overflowing with confidence on these selections either.

In case you are wondering, I am going with the San Jose Sharks to hoist the Stanley Cup this year. In what has been a crazy year already, why not top it off with the Sharks finally getting over their postseason failures to claim their first Cup in the franchise’s history.

Eastern Conference

#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Tampa Bay

We will kick it right off with the prediction most of you are probably waiting for (and will probably quit reading afterwards) but I am going with the Penguins in six. My reason is quite simple: Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins have a distinct advantage in net this series and probably sport the league’s best defensive unit in front of their net minder. The Lighting have the prohibitive advantage on special teams, although the Penguins’ power play has shown some small glimmers of hope lately, which is an enormous factor in the postseason but the difference in this one will be Fleury in net for the Penguins against 41-year-old Dwayne Roloson. Roloson may be 41, but he has only 33 postseason games under his belt for a simple reason, he’s just not that good. The Penguins, who for now we have to go with the assumption that Crosby will not play, should be able to sneak enough pucks past Roloson to escape the first round and hope that Sid can return for the Eastern semis. I do fear a game seven in this series, however, as the Penguins simply cannot match the star power of Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos without Crosby in the line-up. That could spell disaster if the Penguins cannot jump out early on the Lightning and put this series away in five or six games. Again, Penguins in six.

#1 Washington vs. #8 New York

Pretty interesting match-up here when you think about the Capitals recent postseason struggles combined with the Rangers 3-1 series lead this year, including a 6-0 victory the last time these teams met. Still, you have to think Washington’s focus on their defensive play during the regular season will pay off somewhat in the playoffs. Even if it doesn’t, the Caps still have too much firepower for the Rangers with Ovechkin, Semin and the gang. Capitals in five.

#2 Philadelphia vs. #7 Buffalo

Buffalo seems to be the popular upset pick among many NHL experts but I have a hard time seeing the defending Eastern Conference champs go down without a fight. Chris Pronger is expected back to man the Philadelphia blue line after missing a month with a wrist injury and his playoff resume is well documented. It is not a coincidence that the Flyers escaped their own postseason demons last year after acquiring Pronger in the offseason. Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller has also missed time recently with an undisclosed upper body injury and playing the Flyers with their scoring and depth up front is no way to ease back in. I think the Flyers’ lackluster play over the last month of the season was a product of coasting towards the playoffs and they will come out strong now that they are here. Flyers in seven.

#3 Boston vs. #6 Montreal

Here is the upset I like. Montreal is a playoff tested team with depth and speed up front and a goaltender in Carey Price who I think is every bit as good as Boston’s Tim Thomas. Personally I think Thomas is a bit overrated because of the style in which the Bruins play and their physical defense. This series will probably come down to the Bruins ability to stay out of the penalty box. My guess is that they do not, and that Montreal’s tremendous power play takes advantage. Canadiens in six.

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Chicago

When I talk about how wide open these playoffs are, this series is exactly what I am referring to. Here we have the defending Stanley Cup champs taking on what was by far the best team in the NHL during the regular season in the opening round of the playoffs. The question here is if Roberto Luongo, Vancouver’s fantastic goaltender, can shake off some of his past big game failures and carry this team past the second round of the playoffs. I think the Blackhawks and their young studs give the Canucks everything they can handle but the Sedin twins will be too much and the Canucks prevail. Canucks in seven.

#2 San Jose vs. #7 Los Angeles

If you read the opening paragraph you know who I am going with here. This is the perfect first round match-up to get the Sharks rolling as they take on a young Kings team who will be without their best player, center Anze Kopitar. Sharks in five.

#3 Detroit vs. #6 Phoenix Phoenix has the advantage in net and the Wings could be without Henrik Zetterberg for the beginning of the series or even more but I just can’t see the upstart Coyotes taking down the veteran Red Wings. It really wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Phoenix pull this upset but I think Detroit’s power play will be too much and they find a way to win the series on home ice in game seven. Red Wings in seven.

#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Nashville

This should be a fantastic series pitting the Ducks’ fantastic forwards against the Predators strong defensive balance led by Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and goaltender Pekka Rinne. Nashville finished second in the NHL in goals against while Anaheim had three forwards in the top 11 and five in the top 26 in the NHL scoring leaders. Conversely, Anaheim will most likely be starting Ray Emery in net with top goalie Jonas Hiller on the shelf while Nashville has only outscored one other playoff team in either conference. The winner of this series will probably be whatever team can dictate the style and tempo. With such contrasting yet strong teams, I see this one going the distance where Anaheim will have home-ice advantage. Ducks in seven.